0:00

It sucks. I love that. Look. Look at that shirt

0:02

at that man for a podcast.

0:04

It

0:12

is a really, really horrendous shirt that

0:14

you're a horrible and

0:24

a blazer on trying to get purple pills.

0:26

Are you going to go wood with Tucker? I

0:29

may not be a man of the people, that

0:31

i to try to be a for the people.

0:37

Raymond Davis. we

0:42

you know hey

0:46

everybody welcome to another episode

0:48

of the all in podcast

0:50

is so obviously been an intense week

0:57

there is a topic is really only

1:00

one topic to talk about this week that's

1:03

the russian invasion of the ukraine

1:05

with me to break all this down and may take

1:07

it from a couple of different angles the

1:11

rain man

1:12

david facts with his power flannel

1:14

on today and bookshop somewhat after this trend

1:16

appeal to the every man has the power final

1:19

that's an hour final past while i

1:21

think i was gifted by tucker

1:23

and the sultan of science how often

1:25

you know how do know it's of final set of

1:27

of kashmir i

1:29

didn't have one is to maslow

1:32

tomato you never know that should be okay have you

1:34

sent that search your mouth is burn it so

1:36

the writing his pizza other would a burden for

1:38

but i would wipe my but with sees

1:42

, we go from ah and

1:44

hot off the launch of the cannot

1:47

beverage printer replicator the

1:49

sultan science himself to free bird and

1:51

that from a little

1:53

holiday the

1:55

dictator himself to mothball i have a t s

1:57

with hey i get i read

2:00

can tell us about the jet i rode the you elected

2:02

for this week the are

2:04

how could he this

2:06

is daughter palpatine happened

2:09

here the i

2:11

mean this is look this is the city's cashmere

2:13

the we're we're running out of time have to wear through

2:15

the rest of my few garment garment

2:18

that before spring time them

2:20

and i have to go to the earth you know

2:22

the linen and a cotton that it so

2:24

you're enjoying the final days of

2:26

kashmir why i do i did find

2:29

baby cashmere life since

2:32

i know you can wear them probably until

2:35

april maybe even may sir

2:38

we have that going for us ah well there you

2:40

go unless you're a specific date that you

2:42

are shipped over

2:43

them to the linens and it to

2:46

be to be honest with you i have a i have a team

2:48

i consult the thought it because teams working on that

2:50

are you working with they're working recommendation

2:52

or i'd so we can still last ah it's

2:54

kind of hard to talk about other topics when a war has

2:56

broken out i don't know if i have

2:58

to go

3:01

you deep into rehab and what's happening because

3:03

it is a static situation

3:05

there's a massive fallout from

3:08

the war both economically lives

3:10

lost and it's escalated pretty dramatically

3:12

we had a the crazy moment last night

3:15

were taping this on friday march

3:17

fourth last night a a

3:20

nuclear facility the largest one in europe was

3:23

involved in a firefight it seems to have been secured

3:25

and the russians have taken control of it but there

3:27

are people bombing i

3:29

were to began here i am i

3:31

think maybe sacks we didn't even start us off

3:33

with a little bit of your assessment of the

3:36

situation as it stands and week two

3:39

yeah i mean when we broke up last week

3:41

this war as just breaking out of your soul talk

3:43

about ways are we might diffuse and obviously that was

3:46

too late yeah i

3:48

think everybody probably couldn't

3:50

first and foremost officer be a cakewalk and

3:52

it has turned out not to be the resistance

3:54

by the ukrainians has been fierce in

3:57

it's been sort of a guy

4:00

nice by their leaders alinsky you

4:02

know that at the very beginning of the hostilities

4:04

he made the decision to stay and fight the

4:07

other video that came out with his cabinet

4:09

standing behind him that

4:11

galvanize all the people of ukraine stand behind

4:13

them and then the west is

4:15

now wants to stand behind the whole country if ukraine

4:17

so it's really been you know amazing

4:20

leadership by the lynskey

4:22

there and dumb years too bad no way

4:24

we didn't have that kind of leadership among our allies

4:27

and say afghanistan you know we had

4:29

or the sky gone you gotten the first helicopter

4:31

out of there when that when the trouble started so

4:35

you know his his leadership is no strong and admirable

4:38

it's basically galvanize the west my think

4:40

that the i think the

4:42

must have underestimated the level of resistance

4:44

you would face and also the unity

4:46

the west in terms of sanctioning

4:49

him

4:50

Providing support for ukrainians.

4:52

All that

4:54

being said, I think we're now at the very dangerous sort

4:57

of crossroads because the situation is is

4:59

very volatile and you've got so

5:01

much variance in the outcomes that can

5:03

occur now. i'm i think you're seeing

5:06

people prognosticate everything from

5:08

you know he gets turn

5:11

to rubble in the next week and

5:13

the russian space the power through and when to

5:15

this turns into a long term insurgency

5:19

do you know there's gonna be some sort of

5:21

uprising in moscow and and

5:23

he a regime change their and

5:25

i think because the variants are so high because

5:27

all the sort where you know because the two sides are

5:29

playing for all the marbles so

5:32

to speak any leaving god i think in

5:34

temperate in as saying remarks by

5:37

lindsey graham bc call him the

5:39

or are you have only for

5:41

to his ouster you know which i think is

5:44

gonna give me the road users behind

5:46

their it's going to give the kremlin i figure

5:48

of propaganda tool but for

5:50

for a rally people internally by that

5:53

not the point is just with seems like are playing for all

5:55

the marbles right now a and the

5:58

that's a very dangerous place to be the and i'm

6:00

seeing you know insane

6:03

rhetoric and commentary by people

6:05

trying to push us into war and so this

6:08

the other day you know one of the one of these i tweet

6:10

about is one of the craziest things you here as were

6:12

ready and war three well

6:14

with your caspar said this i mean he's

6:17

canada or known to be over the hot

6:19

head but you also see on i always was be a russia

6:21

expert the state department who

6:23

frequently as of the go to source

6:25

for cnn other publications also saying

6:27

we're at him or three well no we're not

6:30

a me if we were in war three gives you the mushroom clouds

6:32

assuming you are still alive or not vaporize

6:34

so it is incredibly reckless

6:36

for people to be saying things

6:38

like this and there is just you know this drumbeat

6:40

of war that is being pushed

6:43

my cable news and by the

6:45

up the twittersphere the just

6:47

today are thankfully this morning nato

6:50

announced that it would not be imposing

6:52

a no fly zone over ukraine

6:55

that why why is that important is my mom

6:57

because because there's all these people who are

6:59

saying well we we shouldn't send

7:01

boots on the ground to ukraine

7:04

we don't is get militarily involved the listless do

7:06

a no fly zone to be see how ukrainians

7:08

the high as ours that when a no fly

7:10

zone means is that you're going to shoot on russian planes

7:12

guess that's what it means you're going to war a

7:14

may not be boots on the ground his boots in the sky

7:17

so are we done that and we

7:20

given in to the emotional appeals and i think

7:22

we all feel the target on our heart

7:24

strings what have we given into that

7:26

we would be potentially in a shooting war

7:29

with russia the and that

7:31

would be the most serious were already at night it's muster

7:34

is for impulses ration in in

7:36

my lifetime and you know almost

7:38

half a century old so you know

7:40

and eight the is some it's

7:42

very dangerous and job

7:44

in i've been saying the last month on this podcast

7:46

been actually advocating the because

7:49

of knockers militarily involved in a months

7:51

ago it seemed like an argument i didn't need

7:53

to make right now he really does

7:55

because are both sides are are

7:57

sort of edit this is there's almost a the

8:00

unanimity in washington

8:02

that we to continue escalating the situation sex

8:04

my my concern is what

8:07

about the washington

8:10

the intent is to

8:12

put boots on the ground or boots and the sky

8:14

and i'm much more concerned about nato

8:17

allies there's thirty member nations

8:19

the nato

8:21

and i'm if any one of them

8:23

does something stupid if there's any

8:25

action

8:26

by any even rogue elements

8:29

within the military or

8:31

am some statement

8:34

even buy some politician at some mint

8:36

nato member yeah

8:38

you could see a reaction

8:42

the potentially from to ten and

8:44

then article five kicks in which is

8:46

this collective defense article and nato

8:48

and then the united states has an obligation the

8:51

enter the conflict and and

8:53

that's the one scenario you didn't mention which

8:55

is the scenario i'm most concerned about

8:57

most frightened by is

8:59

we don't know when the winner is

9:01

a franz ferdinand moment could occur here

9:04

that someone does something stupid some

9:06

polish tank rolls across the border

9:09

and shoots down some issues

9:11

that some russian you know tag and then

9:13

the russian tank crosses over and then all

9:15

of a sudden

9:16

we gotta go to the rescue and we gotta go to send

9:18

that that that nato member and then all of a sudden

9:21

the whole thing sparks into a wildfire to

9:23

tell like last night could have been that when you look

9:25

at the fog of war you know who's

9:27

basically this nuclear reactor effect

9:30

the explode if it the

9:33

you know in an episode

9:36

would you just tremendous damage to the whole continent

9:38

me if you're living in a nato country

9:40

or and moscow that being had

9:42

gone up which i know is a very

9:44

yeah

9:46

i will be a rare occurrence and they were shutting it down

9:48

etc so but then he was earning an estimated

9:50

felt like it could be a tipping point nuclear material

9:52

is like

9:53

the whole nother level it's

9:55

like arm they have nothing

9:58

to do with war that trying to have to here

10:00

with extension a

10:03

nuclear reactor is almost like a temple

10:05

on earth to god it's twice

10:07

his holiness of holies no one

10:09

can should or ever could consider

10:11

that to be a point in conflict ever

10:14

nothing should be pot split the wars of human

10:16

continue on the rest of the earth there are

10:18

good but nuclear weapons nuclear

10:21

reactors bats unleashing the series

10:23

of the gods on olympus and when they

10:25

come down say scorch the earth

10:27

and nuclear material you

10:29

know is an extension kind of or is

10:32

it still kind of i had a cataclysmic

10:34

of and for this planet oh

10:36

yeah that that that goes well beyond this idea

10:39

of like is it nato did someone shoots

10:41

someone let's all go fight it

10:43

becomes like almost existential to the

10:45

to the condition of humans wasn't what does that say about

10:47

put men and be prudent targeted that facility

10:50

know assistant him along i think that's

10:52

fake news at this point you see that we by michael sullenberger

10:55

the how old are second you said

10:57

this was last night or mean i did see last my sweet okay

10:59

so i don't miss we think this is fog of war i

11:01

think this might be disapprobation so here's

11:03

what happened is the and and a

11:05

wasn't just misreporting zaleski

11:08

tweeted out the video where he bases

11:10

were saying the plant has been attacked

11:13

us on fire is gonna be chernobyl times

11:15

ten for all of europe and then the foreign

11:17

minister of ukraine came out with the another statement

11:19

just like that some obviously so this was

11:21

coordinated and then i saw on

11:23

all the cable news networks all of them

11:26

there's no difference between fox and a cnn

11:28

msnbc same reporting they

11:31

were all in a panic about this and then you

11:33

know and that now know we find a very quickly the truth

11:35

which has confirmed by the white house which is

11:38

no radiation know explosions

11:42

the the fire was sort of tangential i

11:44

wasn't core to the plants so

11:46

i think we have to be very careful now

11:49

the guard ourselves against disinformation

11:51

that is designed frankly to escalate

11:53

the situation and pull off to draw

11:56

central war the mutineers

11:58

with us there was a new york times or bad

12:00

boy is a whiskey and and one of his

12:02

aides were sitting next to and sort transcribing

12:05

the ma'am i was something like i'm fine to last breath

12:07

look that that is heroic i mean i

12:09

think we can all recognize and was his

12:11

bravery encouraging in and in

12:13

doing that however the point

12:16

of that article was to target offered

12:18

streets to get us to involved in

12:20

the war and what he said in that are that article

12:22

was curious and boots on the ground

12:24

but imposed the no fly zone which

12:26

we just talked about is a declaration

12:28

of war yemen know what i was talking about the nuclear

12:30

power plant is not as he wasn't

12:32

being hijacked by the media certainly like this

12:34

was becoming like their ratings bonanza

12:37

and they were definitely hyping it up and me resilience

12:39

he was given a warning hey this could escalate

12:42

the russians did target that they

12:44

were bombing around it they were firefighting

12:46

sort of free birds point like i

12:49

think crazy behavior by russian

12:51

troops by food and to actually

12:53

pseudo try to seize a nuclear power

12:55

plant it seems pretty crazy timothy

12:57

been silent thus far let's get from automotive

12:59

there's a seventeenth century phrase

13:02

that says adversity makes for strange

13:04

bedfellows

13:07

and i think what happens

13:09

when you are in the middle of enormous

13:12

adversity you

13:15

know you need to do whatever it takes

13:17

to win right that's i think why

13:19

it the wednesday so patriotic

13:21

and viewed so heroically around the world these

13:25

try to defend his country and his people i

13:29

want to take the counter david

13:32

what you said i actually think we are at war

13:34

that it the

13:37

most

13:38

how's it is for mother

13:41

in the sense that we are

13:43

learning the different

13:45

kind of warfare if you

13:47

think about how we used to fight

13:50

up until basically of the persian

13:52

gulf war it was armaments

13:54

and takes

13:55

and then that evolved in the middle east because

13:58

we had to fight in search of

14:00

and you know food and terrorism

14:02

in many ways right i think

14:04

this is it away in which we are learning

14:07

that there's a different kind of war for a while which is

14:09

fundamentally economic so

14:12

you know it may not take the same

14:14

shape as drones and missiles

14:16

and fire and guns and bullets but

14:20

i think he would be foolish to make a mistake

14:22

that we are now i'm not

14:24

at economic war with russia

14:27

then and at the end of the day

14:29

the outcome is the same which

14:32

is either they survive

14:34

they don't survive

14:36

the and everything we've done points

14:38

to that we're willing to fight

14:41

and we're willing to put a

14:43

lot of economic collateral some

14:46

and chips on the field in order to win this

14:48

battle though i think in that

14:50

respect we are kind of our war two weeks

14:52

are we on it is you just had nuclear a level

14:54

economic the other languages

14:57

like everybody has a historical framer of would

14:59

they want to go back To how the natural

15:01

path of escalation works. And

15:03

I think this is a very different form of escalation

15:05

that we need to consider. And

15:07

I think that this is the kind of warfare that

15:09

may actually, you

15:12

know, be the the be the which

15:14

wars are fought in the future, you

15:16

seize assets, you

15:18

shut off access to supply routes. You

15:20

make it impossible for anything to work.

15:22

So if you know, I'll give you a simple example of

15:24

a form of is

15:26

what's happening right now in the sense that, you know, for

15:28

example. Russians guys are completely

15:30

clear. Not just because the thing, you know,

15:33

no the external

15:36

the airlines will necessarily father but

15:38

because boeing and rolls royce and g

15:41

as gearbox basically pulled all of their support

15:43

all of their parts right we've

15:46

gone to war with respect to the petroleum

15:48

and lng supplies house not necessarily

15:50

because we want still stop payments which we

15:52

are still enabling because

15:54

the actual refiners won't take the oil on

15:57

the lng because they then would be subject

15:59

to sanctions the people who would ship that

16:02

no longer taking those payments

16:04

are those those barrels of oil into

16:06

the marketplace because they take it insured

16:08

by international banks

16:11

in all these various ways we

16:13

are actually out war

16:15

then i think you know maybe this

16:17

is the way more should be fought in the future because it'll

16:19

save thousands of lives in the

16:21

in the more classic way of describing how lives

16:24

are sacrifice for

16:26

i want to make a counterpoint my concern some

16:28

art is that we've rushed into a reactive

16:31

response the

16:33

with respect to sanctions and seizing

16:35

assets in a way that

16:37

maybe not be calculated over the long

16:39

run it's meaning like are we

16:41

setting ourselves up for another iraq

16:44

afghanistan situations

16:46

where we we rushed into a war

16:49

then we don't have an exit strategy the

16:51

issue is that a lot of the assets

16:53

that we've effective we wiped the value down

16:55

to zero the refocuses

16:58

effect on global business as

17:00

on the global economy as a as

17:02

an example you know this company that we were texting

17:04

about called lukoil they

17:06

were worth sixty billion dollars a few days ago

17:09

we effectively wipe them out to zero and

17:12

sixty five to seventy percent of the

17:15

shares in that company were held and owned

17:17

by a public the retirement

17:20

funds pension funds mutual funds

17:22

that are used for retirees and europe and the united

17:25

states and and

17:27

so you know a significant amount of is a complete

17:29

red herring i told you this in the private

17:31

chat setting this is a complete complete red

17:33

herring

17:34

the read and it's a red herring is that the global

17:36

total market cap the all

17:39

these businesses the

17:41

meaning of we different than the amount of total cap acts

17:44

that these guys represent then in as much

17:46

as you are going to take the equity values of

17:48

certain of these companies to zero it's

17:50

in the grand scheme of things not that much

17:52

equity value we can absorb and we're

17:54

not talking trillions of dollars

17:56

forget about the equity value to think

17:58

about the economic week for whether leveraged

18:01

or positions and swaps and derivatives

18:03

and place counterparty swaps in

18:05

place with a lot of these companies that are now

18:08

going to default and we're not going to know that till the end of this

18:10

month when everything has to settle and

18:12

no one's going to be able to make their payments small

18:15

price to pay free bird is will

18:17

hold on one sec the supplied both to russian

18:19

companies that are suppliers and

18:21

buyers of assets some

18:24

products and services from international

18:26

business as an all the sudden that line items of zeros

18:29

out i don't believe the economic

18:31

value of all about oil seen

18:34

the market cap of lukoil i

18:36

don't believe it then

18:38

i don't believe further

18:40

that the economic value that sell by a

18:43

non russian actors

18:45

the meaningfully more than a few tens of billions

18:47

of dollars were going to find out pretty quick for

18:50

sanction my way russia and ukraine combined

18:53

the account for roughly twenty five percent

18:55

of global we export let me let me say

18:57

differently that we'd go to egypt

18:59

and from egypt to go throughout africa and

19:01

there's a lot of nations and a lot of people

19:04

that depend on our food supply enough

19:06

food supplies now cut off the i understand

19:08

but now we were talking about something different you

19:10

want to talk about we've we can talk about weep on the

19:13

early alzheimer's zeroing all the stuff out and cutting

19:15

them off component hold on second one

19:17

of the things you have to realize free berg is that the purpose

19:20

of sanctions is to create massive pain

19:22

that stops a madman dictator hundred

19:24

from a good for i must be invading

19:27

other countries and causing a world

19:29

war so while it is rangers

19:32

are all don't let me finish a brick wall it is tragic

19:35

that people will suffer and people

19:37

maybe can't get their netflix or can't get their facebook

19:40

or some wheat will get disrupted

19:42

all of this is be the loop

19:44

what is the better choice

19:46

than going to war with potent and it's meant

19:48

to create pain and suffering he says that repeated

19:50

suffering said russia will not change

19:53

piracy about point of thanks and stick

19:55

our totally get it get it understand me a tenth

19:57

of a cold medicine the form of my son is

20:00

have we really gun the calculus

20:02

the good when you make this much of an impact

20:04

this asked when you run into what we might

20:06

call an economic war with such significant

20:09

i'm abrasion in such a significantly

20:12

short period of time when we really

20:14

have as a more the calculus as because i

20:16

don't know where the week that imports

20:18

are going to come from for egypt now and i don't

20:20

know where the millions of people that depend on that we

20:22

supplies are now going to get said from

20:24

i don't think we have an answer if we had a strategy

20:27

that said the solution is the solution

20:29

from an energy preset the summer food for thought the

20:31

thought of effective to fill all

20:33

the whole to otherwise we may all end

20:35

up sharing that cost over the long run and it's

20:37

gonna be a big cost of their i think you're wrong

20:40

the and the reason why think you're wrong as we've already

20:42

seen how this is played out before though

20:45

in the last two years we'd learn

20:48

what governments are willing to do when

20:50

you have supply shots in demand shots

20:52

in what they do is they turn on the money printer

20:55

and they treat enormous amounts of stimulus okay

20:57

and what we have now is a

20:59

point where the

21:02

sharks the are really really

21:04

really meaningful globally i

21:07

think you're going to see the federal reserve

21:09

and easy be and the bank of canada

21:12

the bank of japan step in in a very

21:14

coordinated way the provide

21:17

liquidity to these markets and

21:19

i think what that has the byproduct

21:21

of doing is blunting the economic

21:24

consequences to everybody but

21:27

the person who has sanctioned giving that's of

21:29

inflationary as well no and the the

21:31

thing in fact is the opposite i look

21:33

david i have been the ones that said the risk is

21:35

to a recession we are now teetering

21:38

towards the recession next you shouldn't throw this

21:40

thing that i sent you guys before

21:42

if you look back over the last thirty or forty

21:44

or fifty years you look at every single period

21:47

the when there has been a recession

21:50

interesting to note is that it's not always been

21:52

the case the price of energy

21:54

has risen by fifty percent in a recession what

21:57

it is always the case that when it

22:00

the british by fifty percent we enter a recession

22:03

we will contract as an economy

22:05

the government will have to become

22:07

more accommodating that is the price

22:10

of this economic war that we have started

22:13

because it just price because what's happening

22:16

is not supportable smart

22:18

you are sure that weren't are you you feel

22:20

strongly that we're not entering into our condition

22:24

significant stagflation we're

22:26

we're not able to reach simulate the economy and we

22:28

insulate everything with all this money

22:30

printing i don't even know what stagflation has

22:32

to be completely honest with you i don't think i've ever seen

22:34

it i know how it's classically

22:36

described i think it's like pseudo intellectual

22:39

the gobbledygook speak what

22:41

i can tell you is i think that

22:43

prices are too

22:46

high in certain for commodities and good

22:49

i think what's gonna happen is we're going to find a

22:51

way to subsidize those prices

22:53

coming down and i think the simplest way

22:55

to do it is for the government to step in and

22:57

become a buffer they will drive

23:00

massive deficits he'll drive increasing

23:02

amounts of debt what i think that is a

23:04

simple way for us to make sure we put

23:06

and ratchet the pressure and the speak

23:09

on his other point we're only just begun

23:11

meaning just today as we started the pod

23:15

biden came out with an incremental new set

23:17

aside these are russian crude the

23:19

were not either be even in the beginning

23:21

were at the beginning of the beginning i'm

23:24

just worried as as and you got a nuclear war i mean

23:26

it's how it's as if this is if this

23:28

is the new nuclear war that it's a blessing because we're

23:30

not going to have millions of people die sachs is

23:32

or that i'd seen as as yes right the

23:34

strong too little i think

23:36

with me like immerse is going to war

23:39

the favorite what you were saying is that were on the s

23:41

literary past year that starts with sanctions

23:43

then leads to more more sanctions then

23:46

includes arming the

23:48

ukrainians and not an

23:50

i'm an eye on i don't see that's a big

23:52

leap and i think i think know already arming my

23:54

germans gave the gave the ukrainian

23:56

several muscles muscle the i'm

23:58

an exercise no absolutely

24:00

right and there's there's a lot more comments so

24:03

you know what i would say is that a bit better

24:05

something small said which is where id at

24:07

war i your call me a call

24:09

me non binary comey a non binary sinker

24:11

but i don't i

24:14

don't like dividing our options

24:16

in that simply toward peace simply think there's like

24:18

a spectrum here there there

24:20

any color spectrum and as glittery

24:22

past so they're sanctions there's arming

24:25

them and and so on down the line and i

24:27

don't like characterizing what

24:29

we're in or what we're doing is war because

24:31

once you're in war

24:33

then he justifies anything and

24:35

for the other side to search of you're such

24:37

a pacifist sachs is awesome keep them

24:40

look we have to remember when and let me to clarify

24:42

what i'm saying yeah for me to switch fantasy world

24:44

war i said word a form of awards and economic

24:46

war it's just a defiant aziz economics

24:49

of it i don't i don't i don't like using

24:51

a metaphor but let's not the best semantics

24:53

the to do some point am i a pacifist when i would

24:55

say is the during the cold war

24:57

we have to remember that

24:59

this philosophy of containment where we had

25:01

the goal was to prevent

25:04

the spread of communism while conceding

25:06

that the countries are already communist

25:08

that were behind the iron curtain we would not

25:10

challenge will not seek draw that that's

25:13

why because we do not one hot war

25:15

with the soviet union and everything was

25:17

calibrated to make sure that we did

25:19

not blunder ourselves into nuclear

25:21

wars mutually assured destruction and yes

25:24

it almost happened anyway must have notably with

25:26

the cuban missile crisis the rules

25:28

of the game of all right and so we

25:30

did things like arm the news idea

25:33

the rebels in afghanistan was stinger missiles

25:36

so that would be for the people of the jobless but

25:38

we sure as hell didn't put the american flag

25:40

or a nato flag on the boxes

25:43

and on the trucks delivering those weapons

25:45

we deliver them through pakistan through

25:47

intermediaries the rules of the game

25:49

that we all understood now i

25:52

don't we are following similar rules but it feels

25:55

to me like we are and and i think one

25:57

good thing is that both biden and certainly

25:59

true remember the cold war they're

26:01

very involved in the cold war the old enough to remember it

26:04

and hopefully we remember those rules the most encouraging

26:06

thing i've heard by and say this entire

26:08

time was when he reiterated a to see

26:10

the uni that we would knock him militarily involved

26:13

is very important that he keeps saying that because

26:16

you know the russians are looking at these statements the

26:19

show we just have to remember

26:21

that again we're on this as the to a bath and and one

26:24

of those things that's going on here is

26:26

is is a purity spiral so is

26:28

a social media version of this and there's like a parts and

26:30

version of there so the social media

26:32

version of this is that the

26:35

way that you show that you're on the the

26:37

side of a good of ukraine is

26:39

you advocate for the no fly zone you

26:41

advocate for the escalation

26:44

but if you advocate for slowing down

26:46

or de escalating or just taking a breath

26:48

you're called a potent boot liquor you're called neville

26:50

chamberlain i've already gotten about a thousand replied

26:53

tweets coming at me saying that

26:55

so the purity spiral on twitter that

26:57

we seen in so many other context now pushes

27:00

everybody the into

27:02

the into war three similarly

27:04

there's a partisan dynamic were no

27:07

matter what biden says or does

27:10

no matter what new sanctions he imposes

27:13

the republicans always an option for weakness

27:15

the media and fox news always nelson

27:17

for weakness it's a one way roger

27:20

how much more do you want him to do is the

27:22

question that lives in freiburg as you

27:24

are a great question which is what is the and games

27:26

or what we try to accomplish and

27:29

when i'm worried about his the dynamic

27:31

this the stomp frenzy that you

27:34

know what what biologists called the chimp frenzy

27:36

the social media right with cable

27:38

news and now social media and

27:41

partisan rhetoric and all pushes us

27:43

towards continue isolation war

27:45

three and who are going to be the grown ups the

27:47

say listen this is foolish

27:50

stand down take a breath by the way

27:52

we might want to keep some these parts in reserve

27:55

we don't have to play every single thing right

27:57

you your point i said maybe

27:59

g branding i guess this is his nickname

28:02

lindsey graham

28:05

literally explicitly said somebody in

28:07

russia needs to assassinate poodle

28:09

i mean this is a crazy escalation and

28:12

then the other side inside the you have

28:14

people saying

28:15

put a genius and so we are

28:18

going to continue to ratchet up these economic sanctions

28:20

guys weird this is the beginning of the beginning

28:22

of the economic sanctions were not even in the middle

28:24

of doing your duty mosque

28:26

like what is the exit ramp for potent if we

28:29

keep doing this as an ionizer know

28:31

i have no idea but i think that it's clear

28:33

it's pretty it's pretty plain as day if you're going

28:35

to be unemotional and just look at his remarks from

28:37

the american

28:40

the european perspective which is the

28:42

only end game now his

28:44

regime change

28:46

right and in one step feet

28:48

before regime change is a complete

28:51

there are a deterrent and somehow you

28:53

know

28:55

surrender by putting in the sense that he pulls

28:57

back from ukraine lot of seventy percent of of

28:59

people supporting which is what a poll at

29:01

polling figures show our and right and

29:03

and he returned with those polls i mean

29:05

people and russia are not exactly gonna say

29:08

i'm anti

29:09

gordon in a surface well check out on me look

29:11

you can see that had to kind of defend

29:13

would you believe about for know nothings summarizing

29:16

like one thing and pragmatic justice suspended

29:18

ever seen for a moment that maybe that

29:20

is a position of those people maybe

29:22

they do believe

29:24

in pride of nation what the united

29:26

states would believe in pride of nature if we

29:28

were attacked if everyone took economic

29:30

sanctions against our country would we

29:32

not stand up and defend our president and

29:34

our nation and say that our country

29:37

is that prime country and

29:39

our way of living and our lives and we should be

29:41

left alone he does this is this

29:44

, not an issue for the world to get involved and book

29:46

is unlikely to so and so how do you end up

29:48

assume that is the case how do you end up having

29:51

a regime change when you don't have a country

29:53

that's actually and rely on for years

29:55

that point it out like more people are

29:58

rallying for what this guy this doing this that

30:00

in the game

30:00

right let's move our conversation to exit ramps

30:02

from where we are there's there's two options right there's

30:05

two options option one is ukraine

30:07

successfully defend itself rights

30:09

and option to his

30:10

russia for go wins okay

30:13

let's just go down that branch for one second where

30:16

they settle there's a third one chaman they they come

30:18

to a peace treaty which is what's happened previously

30:21

oh there's a third and then there's like a to get what you're

30:23

saying jason is like everybody just kind of starts where they're

30:25

up there are in place they

30:27

do and i'm misreading they give them

30:29

the isa of the ukraine of ukraine

30:32

got it will let's let's play it so then what

30:34

happens to all of these

30:36

economic sanctions are the and done it

30:39

will be part of the negotiation right here maybe

30:43

and on based on condition was soon is

30:45

our their references paid one way or the

30:47

other and how to those get funded model and appearance

30:49

of the i m f get involved and say hey we're going

30:51

to fund your three hundred billion dollar war

30:53

damage bill to ukraine and neither

30:56

leader confiscate the six hundred and fifty

30:58

billion dollars sitting in for bank accounts

31:00

that song by the central bank of russia again

31:02

like how did you go back and lead a nation

31:05

and how to the nation except ball today except

31:07

that their sovereignty has

31:10

now been silenced went a few months ago

31:12

so they show me where the aggressor right is don't

31:14

fall out of the japan by the way

31:16

you know i mean you know it's it's a very similar

31:19

a psychological shocked that

31:21

that may not be as easy to swallow

31:23

what modern russians don't all roads

31:25

and lead to this is going to take

31:28

a really long time to figure out

31:29

like it either do that a long time or it's gonna

31:31

catch on fire i thought georgia took like eleven

31:34

days so i mean i'd the there's a sons who

31:36

quote which i don't want a butcher by

31:38

it was build your opponent a golden bridge to

31:40

recruit retreat across there needs to be a

31:42

golden bridge that my talk about we don't

31:44

see that they did talk about a two episodes ago where

31:46

we said well we're not even on a personal running

31:48

the country are i'm talking about like worth biden

31:51

and where's the rest of the state department and say

31:53

here's an excerpt path for prudence

31:56

and clearly stated over and over again and

31:58

fifteen cents as a woman said like

32:00

i think we ever suggested democrat the from wrong if you

32:02

suggest or i did two weeks ago when we source or

32:04

toddler as which was they wanted

32:06

me to say hey we're we're not going to allow the

32:08

to allow ukraine to join nato

32:11

for a decade if you leave now

32:14

so bad that were so can we are we

32:16

better than nothing to do with i think what's going

32:18

on our country's you it's a result

32:21

the team on the sidelines and have done

32:23

things they they haven't done thirty

32:25

forty fifty years and in some cases other

32:27

and got , it as we checked

32:29

out so like there's no

32:32

there's there's there's hundred number so worried

32:34

about this one hundred million people worried about food if

32:36

we're done a preemptively but as muslims are

32:38

they were made a huge difference like look at germany

32:40

as an example germany hundred forty years

32:42

of policy you know they had consistently

32:44

the and under investing relative to their gdp in

32:46

the military and they made an explicit commitment

32:49

to basically just wrapped that up back above two percent

32:52

you know he also made commitments around

32:54

their energy independence you

32:56

know switzerland is freezing bank account

32:58

something that they've really never done it i've always stayed

33:01

neutral sweden sending ah

33:03

the military support so there's

33:06

a lot of countries in europe in continental

33:08

europe died i found a voice

33:10

was terrifying read some of them in

33:12

the to live with this thread just east of you

33:14

should be like us living with this thread and

33:17

central america or something this is like two steps

33:19

away and i think that's what people forget is

33:22

the geography here of

33:24

france germany poland ukraine

33:26

i think this nato can have it doesn't necessarily

33:28

get it done at this point

33:30

the i agree that a minute ride hannah be part

33:32

of any think what's the i was never in my

33:34

opinion is that you ratchet these economic

33:37

sanctions up so severely

33:39

that then he know scapula the thing is

33:42

hopefully

33:43

in the aperture of war memories

33:46

are short in the sense that you know

33:48

if you ratchet these things up very aggressively

33:52

no sudden something for me than two weeks ago

33:55

seems like a much much better place to be right

33:58

and so that could be an off ramp there's like

34:00

you basically find a way to

34:03

a lot of pressure off his economic sanctions in

34:05

return for the taught

34:08

i mean i don't know but i'm making this up i have no idea

34:10

how he feels like there is no exit here because

34:12

potent has a lot of pride

34:15

nuclear weapons is this and a no

34:17

exit situation sacks of he was

34:19

always likes of we have to want her to contemplate

34:22

what that is i think

34:24

your question given it was to go back for a second

34:26

tap teacher question of would have made a difference if

34:28

we're taking nato expansion of the table see

34:30

last year think this year as probably already

34:32

too late really answer

34:34

is yes regardless of whether

34:37

you believe that nato

34:39

expansion is a real issue for

34:41

the russians or whether you think as a pretext

34:43

aren't as young people are in one of those two camps

34:45

fudan has been saying since two thousand and two thousand

34:48

and eight there was a nato summit in bucharest

34:50

which they basically declared the proposed

34:52

that ukraine and georgia could eventually be eligible

34:55

for membership that basically started

34:57

this whole thing the russians at the time

34:59

said this is an absolute nonstarter for

35:02

us that's a red line no way

35:04

where we allow this to happen in fact later that

35:06

year the role the tanks into georgia

35:09

to put a stop to that idea in georgia in

35:11

ukraine the conversation was deferred

35:13

that this the pro russian

35:15

democratically elected mr

35:19

president eat the i you can

35:21

oh that's fun the was deposed

35:23

in a two and two thousand and fourteen a coup

35:25

that was supported by our state

35:27

department and probably the cia

35:29

okay the reaction

35:32

to that the wouldn't sees

35:34

crummy of not a year later not

35:36

months later days later the reason why

35:38

he was able to see the so quickly as the

35:41

russian to actually have naval

35:43

base their at some stupid this

35:46

is a least the areas least

35:48

from ukraine but they have a naval base

35:50

there and allows me to for the black sea so

35:54

the the russian thinking onto this

35:57

if you believe it goes that listen we're

36:00

about have a pro western the

36:02

war comments ukraine installed

36:05

by a weapon of american back

36:07

to the now we're gonna lose

36:09

or main naval base in

36:11

the black sea and it could be replaced with a nato

36:13

base there is no way that's happening they

36:16

moved the seas crimea

36:18

and then after that they

36:21

started backing russian separatists

36:23

in the donbass in the civil war began okay

36:25

so that bases what's been leading

36:27

up to this and then last year

36:30

they sorry a very exercise about the possibility

36:32

of this nato proposal

36:35

which again goes all about two thousand and eight becoming

36:37

formally recognized and ukraine

36:40

joining nato and for again this is from the russian

36:43

prospective okay and we could talk about whether it's

36:45

a production a second the for the russian

36:47

perspective they said that

36:49

listen and couldn't give a speech like this if

36:52

ukraine joined nato because of article

36:54

five the next time we have a border disputes

36:56

which is all the time right we

36:59

could end up getting drawn into

37:01

a world war three with you guys and

37:03

so there is no way we're going to

37:05

allow ukraine to be part of nato

37:08

and they promote they basically

37:10

by december a given an ultimatum the

37:12

the state department now

37:15

was response to that why you came

37:17

out at a critical moment and said nato's doors

37:19

open and will remain open basically

37:22

said you guys ten it

37:25

the guy now

37:28

is it was extremely wehrmacht of thing in the russians

37:31

invaded ukraine days later now these

37:33

pretty obvious that if you take the russians

37:35

out there word that they believe forget

37:37

about whether you think it's true or not but if you believe six

37:39

matter where the thing that the more the

37:41

been saying since two thousand and eight this a red

37:44

line for them and they have a serious vital national interest

37:46

there then you should have diplomatically

37:49

try to resolve this issue but even if you believe

37:52

it was a pretext who is

37:54

making up this whole redline thing and

37:56

is real goal is the expansion of mother russia

37:58

and all our reunification or the unification

38:01

this it up his logo so what

38:03

i'm in a good idea for boy

38:05

concert basically the

38:07

clay or that we were getting

38:09

narrow space off the table which is simply an affirmation

38:11

the status quo as not appeasement you're not giving

38:14

anything up your reaffirming the

38:16

south scope why we live long and something from

38:18

happening in the future why

38:20

why would that have been a good idea because the

38:22

polling on this show that the russian

38:24

people by two to one were in favor

38:28

basically taking this had a military

38:30

acting as you crates prevent nato expansion

38:32

but they were not in favor of

38:34

during a purely for unification so

38:37

you would have is this was a pretext i

38:40

couldn't for his expansion his dreams

38:43

you could have taken away that

38:45

hard and it would have changed his titles would have prevented

38:48

the works we can't say it is

38:50

calculus he's got a signal ways second maybe

38:52

the people won't be behind here's the good

38:54

news to if you had given him that ship

38:56

and said that we're not gonna let them into nato and then he does

38:59

invade now you've proven that

39:01

this person is in rehearsal

39:03

in mode and his to ranged and

39:05

he's no longer and that this could go

39:08

to other places and symlin and polaroid

39:10

and others would allow more real than yes

39:12

you would be much less internal support so

39:15

who would have been a much better test move right so there was

39:17

a failure to listen fans

39:19

and this this concerns me saw one of the you know george

39:22

george herbert walker bush who i think was

39:24

a great for impulsive preserve a lease or wasn't

39:26

are going on domestic always got reelected

39:29

do get reelected by everyone

39:31

recognizes a great foreign policy president and

39:33

bomb the other quote about

39:36

the style foreign diplomacy

39:38

the a wheat that his son practiced

39:40

dick cheney and rumsfeld the and

39:42

the same people now in the by ministration

39:45

it's all the sort of the recon foreign

39:47

policy he said though he he

39:49

called the spy or an ass foreign

39:52

diplomacy call cheney and hired as

39:54

a called rustled arrogance the

39:56

and what he

39:58

basically said that these guys

40:00

he's talking about cheney rumsfeld

40:02

they don't listen they just want to kick ass

40:04

and take name's state ever want to listen

40:06

to the other guys point of view

40:09

the and i'm you know he thought this was

40:11

tragic he sought it ruins bush

40:14

forty three his presidency the

40:16

i gotta wonder i mean are we practicing the same

40:18

style of iron us diplomacy here

40:21

know well now it's too late we're

40:23

already at war i mean i think if we had practiced

40:26

i i i think if herbert

40:29

walker bush and james baker up in have been

40:31

president last year and and jays break or sectors

40:33

states you think would be in this mess i

40:35

don't think so i think juice maker what a cigarette out a way

40:37

to defuse it always the house on animals

40:39

whose the political scientist that you share data

40:42

link from in the group time

40:44

from the university chicago who hire this guy

40:46

john mearsheimer who sort of king i want to live video

40:48

from him yeah it's quite convincing their

40:52

we should have an approach that was

40:54

hey week we don't need to

40:56

inside ukraine

40:59

you break off we could let them make their own decisions

41:02

and that we're kind of taunting thrushes

41:04

that i don't think he only makes a pretty convincing argument

41:06

there and i don't think you need to be a potent apologists

41:09

you can keep your head

41:10

the person the dictator this is a communist

41:12

country he's a murdering sociopath

41:15

then at the same time we

41:18

should not promote him and

41:20

let the ukraine make their own decisions but not

41:23

encourage them to come into nato and

41:25

we should have taken a nato off the table it's pretty

41:27

clear that that would have been a a better decision

41:30

here that we we still can't think of an

41:33

exit ramp here

41:34

which and i don't hear or own talking

41:36

about food has never said i want

41:39

sex

41:40

well i know i did you know there there have been times

41:42

where he well i mean look i see mr mean we see

41:44

his demands have been a nonstarter was us i think

41:47

at this point he wants for me or he wants

41:49

the tom bass to be independent maybe

41:51

under the suzerainty of

41:54

a russia some a protectorate basically in

41:57

he talked about this thirty and ossification

41:59

team offers a of ukraine i mean so

42:01

now i think the demands are escalated

42:03

because they're at war and steve

42:05

lot too much he needs to get more

42:08

right i mean part of the problem is you say

42:10

he starts see me so i think what's use

42:12

you know once you've invested one hundred dollars you gotta

42:15

make one hundred sixty backwards before he had

42:17

invested ten dollars you would have been happy taking sister

42:19

yeah you know and i think at this point he's

42:21

put too much in the walk

42:23

out with the same sort of deal he has using

42:25

what are the chances his overplayed his

42:27

hand like the economic cost at this point

42:29

to him the lot of jobs

42:31

the loss of customers the loss of the value

42:34

of it's currency i mean you at all

42:36

this stuff up so much

42:38

has been taken away it's very hard to

42:40

see him coming feeling like he can

42:42

come out of the thing i had the we don't

42:44

get a key plowing forward it

42:46

does he take the risk of rohan from off i mean is this

42:49

like at this point module time

42:51

they're safe here and twenty twenty russian

42:53

gdp there's one point

42:55

four eight three trillion dollars

42:59

now what percentage of that do you think

43:01

is actually exports versus a domestic

43:03

economy let's say half was be

43:06

the take a guess rights you're talking about seven

43:08

hundred and fifty billion dollars

43:10

that sports

43:12

so much to say that

43:14

dinner between the between o j

43:17

bank of canada easy be and

43:19

the federal reserve then

43:22

we all just collectively printed five trillion

43:24

dollars

43:25

you can absorb many many years

43:27

of russia's export loss

43:29

now it does awesome gnarly

43:32

implications you know you probably

43:34

have to work

43:35

more closely for example with iran you

43:37

have to get iran nuclear deal done why

43:39

so that we can get access to their oil

43:42

right or blunts the loss of

43:44

the of the russian reserves as an

43:46

example

43:48

weed out to do some clever things

43:50

on sustainability and farming my

43:52

point is so that i think the economic

43:55

calculus of this decision not

43:58

is grandiose as it once the have seemed

44:01

the covert scenario where we are printing you know

44:03

hundreds of billions of dollars a month i think there's a

44:06

the only good news i can take from this axis

44:09

you know the the free world has now learned

44:11

about what a dependency

44:13

we literally work and are from

44:15

the delusion that way and intertwined

44:17

hold on the me to says once a month i want to trophy about we

44:20

have woken up from

44:22

in a delusion that we can intertwine our economy's

44:25

with watch nuclear

44:27

powered dictators and communist countries

44:30

both china and russia and

44:32

now i think the great the coupling and

44:34

the great independence is upon us with us

44:36

moving semiconductors back on shore going

44:39

nuclear maybe i could fracking

44:41

seems the even any environmentalists

44:43

will take fracking in europe rocking

44:46

the i say it's over dependency offer

44:48

a dictator so is that are not so a silver

44:50

lining hear ya me look i think it's so

44:52

obvious now to everybody that we need

44:55

to be energy independent that it was insane

44:57

for us to throw away the energy

44:59

independence be restricted it

45:01

i think that if there was a bill introduced

45:03

i think he up it's been talked about to

45:06

repeal all the restrictions

45:08

on fracking he would pass the senate seventy

45:10

five twenty five meeting all their promises

45:13

of oh for nasa democrats with or for though

45:15

i think everybody is on board down there is some remarkable

45:18

thought that are you see the twitch muscle schoenberg

45:20

about it is come out there you

45:22

know who is backing all right

45:25

he steps my brain tumours

45:27

movement in the rush

45:29

is erasure up a meeting with

45:32

and they sell for his and determined salford and turned

45:34

off nuclear the now

45:36

of a sudden

45:37

depended on russia and he has a pretext

45:39

to now invade for these environmental groups

45:42

and injure of have been useful idiots

45:44

for put an end the kremlin

45:46

in it so that's what suicides i think i saw

45:48

a tweet it was something cause to

45:50

the effect that

45:52

twenty five years ago or thirty years ago

45:54

europe actually produced more liquefied natural

45:56

gas for europe than russia than

45:59

the whole thing

46:00

flipped because all these environmentalists

46:02

four hours or said that they outsource

46:04

to guilt but it turned out that all a lot of those

46:06

organizations may have been funded

46:09

why russia to brilliantly effect a change

46:12

i wanted to see something jason before you

46:14

know there's a common

46:17

the that you here right now which is okay economic

46:19

sanctions don't work i just wanted to talk about

46:21

that for one second i

46:24

think i've adding there's a lot of people there is a lot

46:26

of chatter that historically economic sanctions

46:28

aren't enough which is why you can't

46:30

draw a very clear bright line between

46:33

that and military intervention is while

46:35

an eye for an eye as i thought about this is why

46:37

i think

46:38

you can actually fight and economic title

46:40

and an economic conflict without pulling

46:42

you into a military one

46:45

the reason is actually because of what's happened in

46:47

the last forty or fifty years you know you

46:49

have like the the most critical

46:51

infrastructure in the world i think it's

46:53

the financial infrastructure whether we like that or not

46:55

right because

46:56

you know energy infrastructure tends to be more localized

46:59

other forms of infrastructure a localized

47:01

the one real asset

47:03

that is absolutely global and universal

47:06

the financial payments for

47:08

structure then you know what is really

47:10

happened is that you can really

47:13

the ball the country or an

47:15

entity when you blacklisted

47:17

from these organizations and

47:20

these networks and so this is why

47:22

i actually think people underestimate the

47:24

severity of

47:27

of economic sanctions if done correctly

47:29

and i think before

47:31

you've never really other than you know venezuela

47:33

and a couple of other you know north korea north

47:36

korea cuba of and is when you bust you've never

47:38

really explored the fatality in

47:40

the impact of this kind of sanctions

47:42

on a large global actor which were

47:44

sounds almost greater than sanctions

47:47

you're being you're not allowed to participate

47:49

it's not even like yours and you can export there's you can

47:52

import this is you are now not

47:54

allowed you have no seat at the table

47:56

i think the crude oil example in the airline industry

47:58

example or two incredible

48:01

examples of the ripple effects of the sanctions

48:03

right so again just to reiterate like if

48:05

you're a european based

48:07

refiner in order for you

48:09

to go and buy that oil

48:11

you may have seen a for working capital

48:14

line from a german bank

48:16

that would violate the terms of that they sound

48:18

so you can't go and get that

48:20

if you actually have that oil on head

48:22

and you refine into gasoline and you want to put into

48:24

the open market

48:25

the new car flex sport as an example say

48:28

help me get this stuff to x y z

48:30

location or nurse for somebody

48:32

else they will do it

48:34

i mean i'm i'm going to protect sanctions that of started it sounds

48:36

minor but you have netflix

48:39

is pulled out of the country apple is not selling products in the

48:41

country google is starting to restrict services in the the company

48:44

the emitted going to have a massive impact

48:46

on their ability to just participate in

48:49

society bay just turned off proactively

48:51

money on a facade that i was right as we're getting on air or

48:53

facebook spin ban instagram stole on twitter

48:55

still on but the russians nauert far

48:58

turning off information into the country

49:01

wow every other country i ever the company

49:03

is turning off their services their i think the global

49:05

economy or not even a global economy

49:07

i think japan the

49:10

europe canada america

49:14

in collectively support

49:16

five six seven trillion

49:19

dollars of a

49:21

subsidies to blunt the economic

49:23

impact of these sanctions

49:25

that's effectively shutting russian export

49:27

sauce the word eight nine

49:29

ten years think

49:32

about it the so

49:34

you know at this this this is that

49:36

is the damage any thoughts here as we

49:38

then i come to

49:42

no way out here and just well actually i think

49:44

economy recycled set

49:46

so i think that every

49:48

i figure out a way our winter

49:50

his us what our objectives you know

49:52

what our doctors are and we talked earlier on

49:55

on the show about the idea of regime

49:58

change and that there will be and or

50:00

without regime change i disagree

50:02

with that bomb iraq just

50:04

those two words regime change to

50:06

make everybody cringe because

50:09

regime change was the justification for the iraq

50:12

war the afghanistan for

50:14

libya for syria the

50:16

every single one of those things been a disaster when

50:19

has the united states america successfully

50:21

achieved regime change in

50:23

the last twenty years without creating

50:26

enormous blowback there's an assumption

50:28

that some hours to get toppled by the internal

50:30

to we end up with gorbachev two point

50:33

know or maybe we do agree with

50:35

maybe we end up with a hardliner is even worse

50:37

i don't feel i don't know what

50:39

should the goal be obvious a regime change

50:41

would be wonderful is the russian people chose app of

50:43

what what is this a cease fire season

50:46

is rather like or ceasefire so

50:49

i think to miscalculated the

50:51

resolve of the one ski in

50:54

the west he was once he was like this tv

50:56

after became president user for

50:58

this he was like twenty five some popularity now

51:01

is at ninety something percent the none

51:04

are estimated his resolve he would you say braun

51:06

has largely information more i mean it that not

51:08

really a dagger range of is pretty clear that

51:11

prudence thought he could win this him from

51:13

his work this is the first known

51:15

him as the in the first anymore yeah i

51:17

agree it is and me more i think we're being heavily

51:19

propagandized but the for

51:21

sometimes is winning the propaganda war

51:23

well aware of look at look at yeah

51:25

but i mean look at where you're sitting right ukraine

51:27

is engaged in that effort to run a semi are you

51:30

have you had the whole snake island saying we're

51:32

basically the

51:34

the not going up being confirmed a second our

51:36

sakes okay a snake island where the thirteen

51:39

ukrainian soldiers there were tons of mass murder he

51:41

bring us down

51:42

the surrender terms of actually surrendered you

51:44

had an old woman walking up to the

51:46

russian soldiers were trying to get the hell out

51:48

of the idea exactly the i was fake bomb

51:51

what else i mean i think this everything say doesn't

51:53

are noble to point it was fake oh there was

51:56

a fighter pilot the fighter pilot was

51:58

that the computer v as yeah exactly

52:01

it's not turn off the a fake said look we're

52:03

being heavily propagandize now i don't

52:05

blame the goal here the ukrainians

52:07

for try to propagandize us because storm

52:10

or sanitary fighting for their lives if

52:12

they can pull us into the war

52:14

is

52:15

would help them they might also cause war three

52:18

four days when her minds and and you know

52:20

flip russian centimeter something else it's really

52:22

interesting i just went to the

52:25

world bank site just to check

52:27

whether the gdp

52:29

number that i just gave you was right and it is right

52:31

but what's even more interesting is that russian gdp

52:34

has actually decay thirty five percent in the last

52:36

decade

52:39

it was a peaked in two thousand and thirteen a two

52:41

point two nine two trillion dollars

52:45

so and now the way down to now one

52:47

point four i three so i think the point is with

52:49

know all of these other things that they've been having to

52:51

deal with because of their foreign adventurism

52:53

have you seen a contraction of their economy

52:56

or at free bargain we over did the

52:58

west and everybody over estimate russia

53:01

is

53:02

you know it easier i mean is that a possibility cause

53:04

they seem like they're getting beaten pretty quick

53:07

they're they're fought back and way

53:09

people didn't think they would be able to first of all

53:11

i know for the a close second ago i don't

53:13

know like what people think that they've

53:15

bought a new york the were don't know

53:18

i think importantly we don't really know what's going

53:20

on over there you know

53:23

we are hearing stories every day

53:25

that we feel is conclusive

53:27

and factual and on the ground reporting and a

53:29

few hours later we find out may or may

53:32

not actually be true it

53:35

is the fog of war

53:37

the and all wouldn't take anything that i'm

53:39

reading on twitter or seeing on cnn or hearing

53:41

some commentators on the united states making some

53:43

comment about nor would i feel the same about

53:45

any commentator in the ukraine or russia or

53:48

anywhere else for that matter sacks are gonna

53:50

be sacked i'm not your facts are necessarily

53:52

going to get to us so

53:54

i don't know what's going on the ground the roster

53:56

the convoy supposedly that we

53:58

know we can see some white imagery that moving

54:01

towards us stop we

54:03

don't know why his daughters claims

54:05

by one group of people that says are out of food and their

54:07

defecting his claims by another group of

54:09

people that say they're waiting to circle the city

54:11

and then command pressure and use this as leverage

54:13

effectively to try and get a good negotiator deal

54:16

to exit we don't know and

54:18

so you know for us to be like you know four

54:20

guys commentating at starbucks i think is bit

54:22

of a mistake there's very

54:24

few fact that we can actually say is

54:26

objectively true at this point now

54:29

i'm what we do know is

54:31

professor has a lot of new york the

54:34

regardless of what's going on the ground with

54:36

tactical stuff you know any sort

54:38

of assumption that leads to our police

54:40

said and alternatives intervention or

54:43

or some other force can ultimately win

54:45

against russia is

54:47

is completely false because russia has thousands

54:50

of nuclear warheads and

54:52

i'm you know if russia us

54:54

wanted to exert it's military authority

54:57

over any one in the world they can

54:59

and and so i wouldn't take any

55:01

of the stuff

55:02

the that russia's gonna lose a war

55:05

that you know i'm a war on the ground in

55:07

the ukraine i mean if the end of the day they got the ultimate

55:09

trump card for and also them and brought out

55:11

the heavy use their the summers

55:14

, stomach got

55:16

into rubble okay i got your

55:18

mom says that stuff that's what is the strategy

55:21

here to just listen they can pull

55:23

can grazia they can pull off a loser

55:25

me luck to you know we've wouldn't date we've can lego

55:27

that that as that dresden let's not pretend

55:29

like we haven't done like to they can bomb the

55:31

city's into rubble from the sky

55:34

and or not there until or was just

55:36

no man who you know there there's no back

55:38

would be too bad from the west

55:40

i don't know we don't know but you know i certainly

55:43

a strategy these guys on a bunch of idiots scrambling

55:45

around trying to figure out what to do an end up as second

55:48

most powerful military on planet earth the can

55:50

literally destroyed every human on planet

55:52

earth day or they are pretty smart

55:54

and they're going to figure something out to get themselves

55:56

some sort of an advantage ultimately what that

55:59

is we don't know sitting here trying

56:01

to figure out how to play chess or we were appointed before

56:03

i mean sacks that that might be something worth

56:06

discussing of in there is a contingent that

56:08

say listen prudent is and the

56:10

thinking about this strictly logical

56:14

the i'd i understand their point of view are

56:16

you here at a lot on on the press

56:18

what are you doing ears i would eat well here's i think

56:20

it is i think hooton underestimated

56:23

thought zones his resolve ukrainian resolve

56:25

and i'd say the west resolve i think it would be a mistake

56:28

however frost under estimate

56:30

is resolved and

56:33

that's why i'm afraid of next is that he

56:35

doesn't want to give up and

56:37

listen to go back to your the mearsheimer

56:40

points at this school of realism and there's

56:42

i'm recess and he predicts a lot of as so

56:45

you acted as a yeah maybe he gave a great

56:47

talking to interact in i watched him

56:49

the korean on every one of the way his audience journalists

56:52

yeah one of the ways i assess who are wanna listen

56:54

to and learn more from is when i see

56:56

someone making farsighted predictions

56:58

that come true on like of an easy one yeah yeah

57:01

exactly or like okay this guy has a mental model

57:03

that seems to predict the world

57:06

right i mean like karl popper said famously

57:08

that era streets science religion is that

57:10

size makes predictions are falsify both

57:12

few make predictions one particular for another lands

57:15

are becoming troops maybe you

57:17

have a way of thinking about the role that is predictive

57:19

so this guy i would you say i

57:21

can summarize all the sinking here but i would you say

57:23

i mean i went down to have a rabbit hole on

57:26

you tube is watching his stuff are obviously

57:28

not all that us right okay but but

57:30

year the media has been demonizing the

57:32

sky as for the few things he's gotten wrong

57:34

about the situation instead of all

57:37

the things you've gone right and you know if you to

57:39

do the washing establishment the

57:41

same standard they've gotten far more wrong then

57:43

he as especially over yeah since the iraq

57:45

war last twenty years anyway

57:48

the point he makes is simply this are one

57:50

of the points is listen this

57:53

situation ukraine is to the russians

57:55

with the cuban missile crisis was to

57:57

us meeting it is not

58:00

the pretext for prudent to go in expand

58:03

his empire what is really going on here

58:05

is they have to find this as a redline

58:07

they see as a vital national security

58:09

interests and so we should be thinking

58:12

about them and their resolve

58:14

the way that we thought about

58:16

the cuban missile crisis or in other words the

58:18

russians are acting like the americans

58:21

dead the in the cuban missile crisis

58:23

or member you don't have

58:25

throw the audio the sovereignty

58:27

he saw the other the right to go

58:29

make a treaty in a deal with whoever you want

58:31

and the went to the freely went to the to

58:33

the so union to try make a deal any

58:36

american said no way he adds you

58:38

know my backyard non our backyard and we

58:40

imposed a blockade and

58:42

we were flying the bombers and the

58:45

energy that advisers and

58:47

generals who are willing to go to a nuclear

58:49

war the when that

58:51

say and often that confrontation and

58:54

ultimately the way that they solve the problem is

58:57

the a case and bobby kennedy to

58:59

go secretly cut a deal with the russians to

59:01

pull the jupiter missiles the warheads out of

59:03

turkey's to as a quid pro quo they

59:06

kept a secret for six months you

59:08

got to declare a victory but

59:10

the the russians so it's got something out of

59:12

it too the road to defuse the situation

59:15

so there's any way

59:17

to make a deal like that i think will be a good idea

59:20

i mean a reason for that reason he does

59:22

actually the reason sacks that he is misunderstood

59:25

is because we are propagating

59:27

democracy and when

59:30

we do something

59:31

the boy has the shine of hey we want

59:33

people to be free we want individual freedom

59:36

we want individual human rights who an individual expression

59:38

these things are the height of

59:40

human existence and when communist countries

59:42

do it while they are trying to spread

59:44

communism in authoritarianism and reduce

59:47

human individualism

59:50

and freedoms and and that is a valid

59:52

argument what he said in a toxic

59:54

listen you could put that aside and to say you

59:56

know middle finger backyard not good the

59:59

eyes or

1:00:00

so this is that the former all dichotomy

1:00:02

in in sort of stuff and foreign policy

1:00:05

think here internationally since between idealism

1:00:07

and and realism idealism says it's all

1:00:09

about values and so we're going around

1:00:11

the world were promoting democracy were supporting

1:00:14

allies who we think will spread democracy

1:00:16

there's good guys and bad guys were on the size of

1:00:18

the good guys and that's who we support

1:00:20

and we change the regimes are the bad guys but

1:00:22

the real as just think of this as great power

1:00:25

rivalry we have to understand

1:00:27

the way the great powers of always react in

1:00:29

behave the a great powers

1:00:31

whether it's russia or the soviet union

1:00:33

or asked will behave viciously and

1:00:36

ruthlessly towards anything they perceive

1:00:38

as a threat the their national security

1:00:40

entered their vital nascar the and for us what are your

1:00:42

thoughts on

1:00:43

this being the mom and we we make the next

1:00:45

big transition we were not bipolar

1:00:48

worldwide or were bidding unipolar

1:00:50

for the majority of our lifetimes where we only

1:00:52

experienced in i'd say it's a now this

1:00:54

the moment we moved a multi polar sense there

1:00:57

were going to what have we moved are already

1:01:00

it's it's it's visit transition

1:01:02

that's happening mainly because of china so we're

1:01:05

a nice you know it seems like what we're doing is pushing

1:01:07

russia eventually into

1:01:09

into these arms isn't really final say

1:01:12

the bar that one i'm surprised to hear you

1:01:14

say that take out one i said it two weeks

1:01:16

ago i mean i said the sounds

1:01:18

crazy but if we could get food and

1:01:21

the be you know in talks with us then

1:01:23

he's not in talks was using thing and when you saw

1:01:25

him with the you know taking pictures of

1:01:27

using think that should have been a red alarm bell

1:01:30

to everybody about our foreign policy is not

1:01:32

working because if he started

1:01:34

eating thing supposedly the who noted

1:01:36

this is your again fog of war to free bar explain yeah

1:01:39

maybe using

1:01:41

think told him to wait till after the olympics to just

1:01:43

sit vision if they're coordinating at that

1:01:45

level that really

1:01:47

problematic for the u s we need him on our

1:01:49

side we need to get pakistan on our side

1:01:51

india south korea we need

1:01:53

to build an alliance

1:01:55

the deal with the eventuality of china

1:01:57

going into the south china sea and taking over time

1:02:00

so tomato what are your thoughts on

1:02:02

does this gives using thing a window or

1:02:04

not and is or any past

1:02:06

the getting russia back in

1:02:09

the talks with the west maybe he can

1:02:11

help get them we

1:02:13

started in a way that good normalize relations

1:02:18

what he did the real question is like if

1:02:20

you're he do you look at this

1:02:22

and say the it

1:02:24

emboldens nice

1:02:26

the war i have to be even more strategic

1:02:29

and crafty what do you think i said

1:02:31

ladder him yeah the

1:02:33

latter right if russia had rolled right

1:02:35

to be the phone one get this wrong it's a and i'll i'll sort

1:02:37

of contradicts what i said little bit before

1:02:40

it look i i i don't i'm

1:02:42

not personally attached to either the real

1:02:44

us or these ideals schools and chaotic

1:02:46

they're interesting when you consider both perspectives

1:02:48

when i would say is that the resilience

1:02:51

of ferocity of the ukrainians the

1:02:53

resistance defending themselves

1:02:55

the ring to it and a punch in the nose we can

1:02:57

all support that because we

1:02:59

know that she is watching

1:03:01

if he sees wow the russians

1:03:03

really thought a tough time with

1:03:06

ukrainians what did you know am i can be facing

1:03:08

similar situation with taiwan the

1:03:11

and what's interesting is the way the

1:03:13

ukrainians they basically the

1:03:16

ruling charm every man woman

1:03:18

and butter a child that every man or woman

1:03:20

they're they're handing out the a k forty

1:03:22

sevens basically they is realized

1:03:24

right you're not israel survive

1:03:27

in the neighborhood wherever was to kill them everything

1:03:30

all adult serves in the army and they get

1:03:32

guns it's like you know

1:03:34

there are not an arm and over there horse vi

1:03:36

i'm lisa was just so

1:03:39

i think that the ukrainians have shown a model

1:03:41

this really based on his role model which is listen

1:03:43

if i wanna really wants to be independent

1:03:46

every adult there a nice to learn how to fight

1:03:48

any type of weapons the

1:03:50

and does can be the best guess we can be their

1:03:52

ally but us to be the best guarantors creating

1:03:55

a credible deterrent to see

1:03:57

movie on them mean i do we transition

1:03:59

to another story

1:04:01

here and he says

1:04:02

this is one of the problems when you were living

1:04:04

in these kind of times is that if he should talk about

1:04:07

anything other than was necessary

1:04:09

since i saw tweet when all the decision trees and go

1:04:11

to zero meaning that like as a one percent

1:04:13

chance of or point one percent of point one percent

1:04:15

chance

1:04:16

the war three the nuclear war

1:04:18

then yeah i heard talk radio sort of think of anything

1:04:21

else so yeah

1:04:24

i watched ozarks this week when

1:04:27

, me i also presented

1:04:30

always also presented investment amazing

1:04:32

place amazing so fragmented on it

1:04:35

when you had to point out a series twice

1:04:37

and i've fallen asleep in episode last

1:04:40

time not allow you to do i keep going

1:04:42

he rolls it's it's is basically breaking

1:04:44

bad to point in all my yeah

1:04:46

i sort of season two of euphoria

1:04:49

only my lord kids

1:04:51

, oh my god it's either

1:04:53

god for like the best deterrent so

1:04:55

like like make them sit and watch it

1:04:57

and they'll not only will they never not

1:04:59

do drugs but like they'll deterrent won't do anything

1:05:01

they'll just like house it's scarring

1:05:04

it's basically requiem for dream meets like disney

1:05:06

plus afternoons like either disney

1:05:09

stars living and requiem for dream decompress

1:05:12

after i watch it if your kids it's terrorizing

1:05:16

it's terrifying it's terrifying it's

1:05:18

absolutely to scarring

1:05:21

relatively to have to say give them a why when

1:05:23

asked about markets i mean you know i

1:05:25

feel like yours are sort of new markets

1:05:28

important discussion because the

1:05:30

markets are so volatile during

1:05:32

these kind of volatile information time

1:05:34

signs of you know it's a nice him as changing

1:05:36

day to day intraday you

1:05:39

know where do you guys think about kind

1:05:42

of spending your time right now or you kind of just your

1:05:45

head in the sand and say will point out afterwards

1:05:47

i mean how do you guys from you know

1:05:50

what's funny is like ice axes curled up in a boss

1:05:54

see , thing is ,

1:05:56

times of uncertainty you actually want

1:05:58

to be deploying so you know the

1:06:01

i announced that last

1:06:03

week i think it was solar deal so

1:06:05

do it i put two hundred and twenty eight million

1:06:07

dollars into the thing and then i did another

1:06:09

do i put forty five million bucks into this thing you

1:06:11

guys know about which we haven't announced it yet so

1:06:14

i'm but other than that i've been

1:06:16

literally or white knuckled the

1:06:19

i don't like to open the stock after

1:06:21

some point

1:06:22

the me

1:06:24

, open your morgan stanley stock our

1:06:27

our what's funny like my bloomberg terminal

1:06:29

which is right beside me here my desk i of not

1:06:31

logged draw

1:06:34

logged there's just no point at

1:06:36

the end of every week i get a report right

1:06:38

kind of like our panel and i just

1:06:40

look at the to like like kind draw send me the to

1:06:42

point you no and and the lost

1:06:44

like week we've lost one percent

1:06:47

we've lost two percent we've lost me percent

1:06:49

the time that this as weird as the last one

1:06:51

percent sure

1:06:53

hi celebrated i got

1:06:55

so drunk that such you

1:06:57

support group which is this is

1:06:59

worth are we really does help rights activist

1:07:02

needs like if you think in decades and use

1:07:04

your adventure investor you can try to put

1:07:06

the stuff out of your mom would you know what i'm doing and

1:07:09

the great thing as and seeing amazing

1:07:11

companies great founders deals are taking

1:07:13

longer to close people are starting to due diligence

1:07:15

again and people are discussing what are a valuation

1:07:17

for this early stage start up his which

1:07:20

is good that's healthy i think we're getting

1:07:22

a like how i don't know what you're seeing in the in the early

1:07:24

to mid stage market privately but i'm seeing

1:07:27

really help the discussions and late stage man is

1:07:29

is gone the older

1:07:32

the i mean i think hundred times a or or is over

1:07:34

by with no one really knows where as landing so

1:07:36

i'm seasons and you'll get on a succeed eighty

1:07:39

times but no

1:07:41

one really knows where it the it should be an hour

1:07:43

i said you guys his tweet from morgan housel

1:07:45

who is a great guy

1:07:48

and here this guy does tweet he says as

1:07:50

he he says this the shots cycles

1:07:54

it's a beautiful cycle assume good news

1:07:56

is permanent the bloodiest the bad

1:07:58

news then you

1:08:00

nor the bad news thing you deny the bad news

1:08:02

thing you panic at the bad news

1:08:04

then you accept the bad news and

1:08:06

then you in the north good news you

1:08:08

deny the good news you accept

1:08:10

a good news and been using the good news is permanent

1:08:12

that start the cycle the money if i could just

1:08:15

put it out there i don't know today if you guys saw nonfarm

1:08:17

payrolls but we had a huge print in

1:08:20

an unemployment like

1:08:21

really great print meaning like a lot of employers

1:08:24

were able to find people you

1:08:26

a jobs it was a big number

1:08:29

the interesting thing about it was we didn't see

1:08:32

our wage inflation take up with it

1:08:35

and if i had to look at that

1:08:37

and if you are to look at a bunch of the koenigs

1:08:39

reports that have come out in the last three

1:08:41

or four weeks i actually

1:08:44

think we're in the part of the psychos here where we're

1:08:46

starting to ignore the good news we're

1:08:49

so negative and were so

1:08:51

emotional he wrapped up in everything people

1:08:55

forget that actually the world tends

1:08:57

to the keep moving

1:08:59

forward right i'm

1:09:01

we're not in world war three by

1:09:03

any measure are we in not we are

1:09:05

not anywhere near that okay

1:09:09

so i do you think it's important for people to take a step

1:09:11

back and take a really deep breath but i think that

1:09:13

there's a lot of good news out there

1:09:15

is a ton of good news and for people don't know the term

1:09:17

are ignoring me or don't know the term print hussein

1:09:20

as a friend

1:09:21

that is just as localism

1:09:23

in the financial markets that something was format

1:09:25

it for printing previously and you got good news

1:09:27

so an official report sometimes called we gotta play

1:09:30

agree with i think what's going on is there is some

1:09:32

underlying good news right but there's this overhead

1:09:34

of a small chance of something catastrophic

1:09:37

happens

1:09:38

there are you price that in right it's

1:09:40

it's it's a sense one

1:09:42

outer price

1:09:44

exactly but you know what lives were sent

1:09:46

over said yeah it's a one hour does

1:09:48

one outer to the apocalypse basically a free

1:09:50

society probability thing happens to the

1:09:52

game is over so you know why we're

1:09:55

so does it matter with it doesn't

1:09:57

matter where did you have some of your house does

1:09:59

it matter

1:10:00

the nuclear war veteran this is this is

1:10:02

a thing that people underestimate as like that's not

1:10:04

a that's not a risk that one should

1:10:06

be hedging in any way

1:10:08

the nancy right

1:10:10

at that point the only thing that matters is the health

1:10:12

and the of your family and your friends

1:10:14

but really in your immediate family i can you

1:10:17

take care of them to make sure they're safe and

1:10:19

so you know if you're if you're investor

1:10:21

in the financial markets or you're building a company managing

1:10:24

for that externality in my opinion hundred

1:10:26

sure makes a ton of sense because i don't think you can

1:10:28

manage to that external if you have no impact

1:10:30

on different always and it's surroundings shouldn't

1:10:33

we have a little scenario yeah so i think

1:10:35

if the managed to the ninety nine point nine nine nine

1:10:37

percent of normalized out on then

1:10:39

i think right now there are some

1:10:41

what's called green shoots meaning like the

1:10:44

positive news in the world and some positive

1:10:46

data

1:10:47

the way the other thing that we saw today was or

1:10:49

this week was thrown out and

1:10:52

you know the jerome powell testimony was also

1:10:55

in the middle of massive amounts

1:10:57

of bad news

1:10:59

the i'm actually pretty decent good news which

1:11:01

was he said he's gonna raised by

1:11:03

twenty five basis points in march everybody knew

1:11:05

that right so we took the oath fifty basis

1:11:07

points off the table

1:11:09

then he was very clear that they were going to be

1:11:11

data driven and in the language of the federal

1:11:13

reserve that essentially means

1:11:15

is i for going to be patient and wait and see

1:11:18

if you public with what i said before

1:11:20

which is the economic cost

1:11:22

of these economic sanctions towards russia

1:11:26

the can be calculated

1:11:27

then i think that we have proven a willingness to

1:11:29

print capital and money

1:11:32

have you put those two things together i

1:11:34

think there could be a real possibility that

1:11:36

powell becomes very accommodating

1:11:39

you know he and biden in the entire administration

1:11:41

come together with your up in everybody else to say

1:11:44

that the money printer back going because we're

1:11:46

we're gonna stand the line on these economic sanctions

1:11:49

and we're gonna you

1:11:51

know sort of soft land the economy here because

1:11:53

we think there's recessionary risks

1:11:55

a foot let me to provide out at a little bit

1:11:57

of a counterpoint which is where i'm

1:12:00

the concerned

1:12:03

what

1:12:05

the repercussions are swollen

1:12:08

the dynamical system of global

1:12:10

capital pulling out this

1:12:12

much capital and devaluing assets

1:12:15

at the scale so quickly the

1:12:17

shock to the system i don't think has

1:12:19

yet been realized and i think will know

1:12:21

the end of this month when books close what

1:12:23

things actually do to businesses

1:12:26

to swap agreements to trade

1:12:28

you know our trade balances that are outstanding

1:12:31

and you could talk about economic stimulus has been

1:12:33

the way to solve that the we don't yet know what's

1:12:35

broken

1:12:36

they're like like let me just give you guys another example

1:12:38

today corn i think to pray to have seven sixty

1:12:40

a bushel that hasn't happened guys

1:12:43

i can't tell you how long

1:12:45

it was a commodity that was trading at three

1:12:47

fifty a few months ago the

1:12:49

we're not talking about that the trickle down

1:12:51

effect of that price into the beef

1:12:54

the trickle down effect is we're already seeing in california

1:12:56

where the or san francisco the average price for gallon

1:12:58

of gas and over five dollars the

1:13:00

trickle down effect on the

1:13:02

on purchasing behavior on

1:13:05

businesses default a because suddenly

1:13:07

they're they're counterparty dry up we

1:13:09

don't know and we won't know and if i

1:13:11

do we know some of those we know some of the

1:13:14

but we don't know what we don't know and the thing

1:13:16

i'm concerned about is this is it's imagine

1:13:18

when i say dynamical systems from a physics perspective

1:13:20

it's like take a one hundred twenty their time

1:13:22

together into a giant graph of twenties and

1:13:25

you start punching wanted a slinky like tests if

1:13:27

you punch one or two the slinky hard enough you

1:13:29

don't know how the repercussions will cause

1:13:32

a slinky all the way over there to suddenly shoot up

1:13:34

or shoot down for their and you're also denying

1:13:36

your ability to change the different slinky this the whole

1:13:38

point of a dynamic you could put energy

1:13:40

back into it but we don't know what's broken and

1:13:42

there could be something that's irreparably or of her these

1:13:45

we've gone through these things before and i think you're not

1:13:47

learning from history or iran least not willing to

1:13:49

admit it but now i mean what's the hold on

1:13:51

a second we see in tarp okay we

1:13:53

did not know the total extent of what happened

1:13:55

in the gfc and we had to invent

1:13:57

a financial framework to software

1:13:59

and the globe the economy we figured it out then

1:14:02

we went to ltcm and john merriweather

1:14:04

blew up expose them to

1:14:05

there was a huge hedge fund in the late

1:14:08

nineties that basically had at such

1:14:10

a massively levered exposure to the financial

1:14:13

markets

1:14:13

the tune of like tens or tens or hundreds

1:14:16

of billions of dollars go read the book when genius

1:14:18

failed a few honorary the store it's editor it doesn't get

1:14:20

off summarizing it but it's a it's a great source data

1:14:22

and again we had to step in with

1:14:24

the governmental framework and abroad

1:14:27

infrastructure of actors across the world

1:14:29

the southland the financial economy

1:14:31

in a way to not knowing what the actual

1:14:35

what would what part was broken so i so i

1:14:37

fundamentally disagree with this idea that we're running

1:14:39

blind am of course on a lot of talk about

1:14:41

capital and energy and food

1:14:44

and some combination of those things

1:14:46

are going to cause some serious deleterious effect

1:14:48

on me while i think and on markets and look

1:14:50

i get it's him out i know that there's solution

1:14:52

for a pair and i know that we're going to act we

1:14:55

play and aggressively at every time by the way i want

1:14:57

to point out the eternal scenarios you

1:14:59

talked about we've acted more swiftly

1:15:01

and more aggressively than we did in the scenario prior

1:15:04

getting to the point that you know what is the value

1:15:07

how much debt how much deficit are

1:15:09

we really willing to take on everyone

1:15:11

obviously has these kind of you know if it is

1:15:13

intrinsic existential question about

1:15:15

how much we really can add long term

1:15:18

would up a dollar collapsing but certainly in the context

1:15:20

of a global economy collapsing the dollar will always

1:15:22

be the safe haven there are other

1:15:24

things at play here of life you

1:15:26

know the cost of gas or the average american you

1:15:29

know that that that be amount of we can

1:15:31

be amount of food that people in africa your to have it was or

1:15:33

what you're saying you're free bird is that some

1:15:35

of these things we have been through and if you look

1:15:38

at

1:15:38

gas is one example i think you bringing up the important

1:15:41

ones who your food and energy death

1:15:43

we are you know what happens when gas prices go

1:15:45

up we saw that not long ago people

1:15:47

bought more hybrids and the mpg

1:15:50

per car as you know when

1:15:52

you raise prices and subsequent down and trade

1:15:54

else must go on talking about the short term acute

1:15:57

effects the same that america has

1:15:59

the ability to

1:16:00

do is they have the ability to change the

1:16:02

financial incentives the actors

1:16:05

all around the world in a split second

1:16:07

and behavior can change and and so i

1:16:09

actually think free birth the new one thing

1:16:11

that you're saying which i completely agree with but

1:16:13

maybe we should save more explicitly as

1:16:16

the probably is a reasonable way to manage

1:16:18

risk in america europe canada

1:16:21

japan what gonna be very

1:16:23

very difficult is he in fact that this has an emerging

1:16:25

markets in southeast asia asia

1:16:28

africa could be really really deleterious

1:16:30

for some amount of time and sad and it's

1:16:33

a humanist gonna cause a humanitarian problem

1:16:35

is really friggin sad and it's

1:16:37

you know

1:16:37

whatever progress has been made could be on wow

1:16:40

think you're right by the way i see i think that that

1:16:42

is actually

1:16:44

really the risk that i think i'm holding

1:16:46

the line on the sanctions really does it pushes

1:16:49

the restored iam countries

1:16:51

then i think we're going to have to figure out what or moral

1:16:53

resolve his to gone six the and that's my point

1:16:55

earlier which is more going to bear the costs ultimately

1:16:57

the united states isn't as to step up

1:16:59

in a really outside way to solve the

1:17:01

problem and while we might not be sending troops on the ground

1:17:04

we're going to end up paying several as many to

1:17:06

see you know since we burgers and say seems to be working

1:17:08

in coordination with or in that

1:17:10

situation we're not unilaterally and more

1:17:12

that's more that's news for gonna have an economic

1:17:14

costs for some least there's

1:17:17

there's there's no amount of money

1:17:19

that you can actually put on human

1:17:21

life

1:17:23

so if we can avoid a military

1:17:25

war i just

1:17:27

think that there's just there's there's no

1:17:29

breadline on cost the

1:17:32

we end up running that the deficit

1:17:34

and now working else one hundred and fifty

1:17:36

two hundred and sixty three hundred percent of gdp

1:17:40

i think that feel morally that that is

1:17:42

the right thing to do sachs is is or

1:17:44

is the world becoming more idealistic

1:17:46

and realist let me bring sexiness

1:17:48

sexism world becoming more anti

1:17:51

fragile slash

1:17:52

resilient pick one of the to i guess

1:17:55

to these kind of pending

1:17:57

events because of covert because of

1:17:59

china pulling out a financial markets we just went

1:18:01

through this free bar was a his is unprecedented

1:18:03

actually i think we have a liberal president here

1:18:06

we have to complete shutdown of the economy from covered

1:18:08

in recent memory

1:18:09

we are trying to deciding for all these companies

1:18:11

are no longer public we've seen

1:18:13

seated their own economic sanctions the sense

1:18:15

of themselves and pulled out a markets sortie

1:18:18

the excess very nice if the current crisis

1:18:20

as a reminder that is not have

1:18:22

to anti fragile anti think we are in

1:18:24

are trans issues that the cold war ended

1:18:26

about thirty years ago and since then

1:18:28

we've been made engaging made

1:18:30

engaging for of unipolar foreign policy

1:18:33

with america cause all the shots now

1:18:35

the world is becoming more

1:18:37

multi polar not sure it's all the way they're yeah

1:18:40

the you are countries like russia in

1:18:43

china reasserting themselves

1:18:46

that's making the world a more dangerous place

1:18:48

your that the you working together in unison

1:18:50

and they seem to be maybe they're gonna

1:18:52

become a bigger actor here because of this

1:18:55

right we're seeing them take about that are sort of up

1:18:57

opposes surprise as long as it on pull

1:18:59

of franz ferdinand

1:19:01

the work that and inadvertently blunder essence

1:19:04

of the will enter or okay folks this is

1:19:06

this weekend dystopian alcoa

1:19:08

talk about something good come on another good

1:19:10

news from summer to see i thought about

1:19:12

the big party breakthrough

1:19:14

three there are any good news guys good news

1:19:16

is the me my he does some of the good news is that

1:19:18

we're managing a

1:19:20

crises after prices china right you

1:19:22

want to tell people about this revolutionary breakthrough

1:19:25

let me look there's just there's another party therapy

1:19:27

saw approved to have an opponent and the last

1:19:29

week for arm milo mccarthy

1:19:32

just i think we talked about it in the past

1:19:34

you know every human body has the

1:19:38

other or part of your immune system

1:19:40

he sells or program so they have a

1:19:42

a sensor of you know that the told them where to

1:19:44

go and what to destroy and so

1:19:47

as he sells learn what to destroy

1:19:50

know they can be really effective at at clearing

1:19:52

bad things out of your body clearing pathogens

1:19:54

and invasive things out of your body

1:19:57

no a few years ago

1:19:59

you're human gained the ability to

1:20:01

engineer see cells by adding the genetic

1:20:04

code what he saw effectively

1:20:06

engineering they had to go after

1:20:08

a very specific there so

1:20:10

the big power revolutionary party therapy

1:20:12

has been an ontology

1:20:15

and cancer

1:20:16

no are programmed t cells

1:20:18

to destroy specific cancer cells in the

1:20:20

body that you know you would historically

1:20:23

has had to use really difficult

1:20:25

systemically challenge and drugs like got

1:20:27

chemotherapy and so on to wipe out lots

1:20:29

of cells in many cases doesn't

1:20:31

eradicate all the cancer

1:20:33

the party turns out it can be extremely

1:20:35

effective at finding very specific cancer

1:20:37

cells in your body

1:20:39

in many cases causing complete

1:20:41

remission a cancer

1:20:42

so you know there was one party that was

1:20:44

approved that showed i believe it was

1:20:46

at eighty eight or ninety percent complete

1:20:48

remission and multiple myeloma which

1:20:50

is a form of blood cancer

1:20:52

so they they take your tea cells out of your body

1:20:55

a you you just get a little blood draw basically

1:20:57

a they go in a lab a they're zap

1:20:59

with electricity which a causes them to

1:21:01

open up slightly and and engineered little

1:21:04

crisper and it happens the noted

1:21:06

that the cells are now edited the dna

1:21:08

and or cells as edited and now those cells

1:21:10

know to go after the cancer target the

1:21:12

put him back in your body after they grow up for a few

1:21:14

days and a filter an untested make sure they're safe

1:21:17

and after they go back and your body he

1:21:20

don't go to work at me clear all the cancer cells alibi

1:21:22

it's an incredible technology a credible

1:21:24

tell me to therapies are unbelievable the

1:21:27

is the name of the company involved as a to bio

1:21:29

such as know someone does something else is so

1:21:31

that breakthrough was even even more important

1:21:33

i think in the long term what he's talking

1:21:35

about is janson in legend i

1:21:38

did you companies are basically got approval from

1:21:40

the f t a

1:21:41

nothing with party is like you know party

1:21:43

has been incredibly some believed

1:21:46

the in blood these cancers right

1:21:49

but that's an entire category

1:21:51

that excludes solid tumor cancers

1:21:54

what you're talking about jason this week as well

1:21:56

what happened was a to bio basically figured

1:21:59

out how to

1:22:00

modify these t cells in

1:22:02

a way where you can actually attack

1:22:04

and target a very specific solid tumor

1:22:06

so there's lot more work for those guys

1:22:09

but if you play that out

1:22:11

are you had this incredible ability for your

1:22:14

own body

1:22:15

the be trained to fight and kill cancer whether

1:22:17

it's in your blood for whether it's a solid tumors

1:22:20

us now the the price to pay the price of these

1:22:22

therapies today they're charging

1:22:24

call it four hundred to four hundred and fifty thousand

1:22:26

dollars

1:22:27

the treatment and by the way the treatment it's

1:22:29

a one time shot because it's like

1:22:32

was suggested for the blood on your body

1:22:34

added a bit expensive challenging part

1:22:37

is how do you take the cells isolate

1:22:39

them engine and and test on screen

1:22:41

i make sure they're safe the ways that is done

1:22:43

today very expensive and time

1:22:45

consuming because the volume is law and there hasn't

1:22:47

been as many kind of engineering

1:22:49

break some of the temple you know the

1:22:51

, it could take a week to four weeks so

1:22:54

before you one source in ten people is that the

1:22:56

equipment that's like , i'm

1:22:59

i've invited some ah to come with me when visited one

1:23:01

of these lads a few weeks ago

1:23:03

that i won't get into it tom

1:23:05

but it is it is unnecessarily

1:23:07

and efficient in the sense that you can charge so

1:23:09

much because when you spend half a million

1:23:12

dollars for treating cancer patient he just save

1:23:14

yourself millions of dollars in long term

1:23:16

care for that cancer from says so the price is determined

1:23:18

by your son or costs are priced

1:23:20

is like how do you save money over the

1:23:22

long run for the pair the on insurance company

1:23:25

so if if if if your company knows over

1:23:27

the long run going to pay three million dollars and care for this

1:23:30

cancer the stadium two point five totally

1:23:32

willing to spend half a million dollars to

1:23:34

united at the end the cancer is that the

1:23:36

right financial calculus for the something so

1:23:38

if you look at the actual cost of doing this there

1:23:40

is a university in the bay area that is doing

1:23:42

arms or carty therapies and their cost

1:23:44

is about forty grand they built their own lab to do

1:23:47

that on some enough by the way it's also extremely

1:23:49

inefficient

1:23:50

we i think that over the long run we can get the cost

1:23:52

of cell therapies below five thousand bucks

1:23:55

and when you could do that by the way court t can be

1:23:57

used not just ago as the sources for

1:23:59

didn't get it to go

1:24:00

the auto immunity to people with

1:24:02

lupus and rheumatoid arthritis there were

1:24:04

known be self and your body that are making

1:24:06

antibodies that are causing the information

1:24:08

your body destroying our body and so down

1:24:10

the road we could use party to destroy

1:24:13

luther to destroy antibodies

1:24:16

that the cells that produce antibodies

1:24:18

that are i'm in a fundamentally causing autoimmune

1:24:20

conditions including what we talked about

1:24:22

a few weeks ago

1:24:25

multiple sclerosis given that we now have a strong

1:24:27

belief that if you can get rid of that are

1:24:29

the dvd there at the bar virus

1:24:32

or from your body or you can write that out

1:24:34

of so party in the long run be

1:24:36

harnessed not just for cancer but auto

1:24:38

immunity and potentially other pathogens in the body

1:24:40

to really targeted way and this this is

1:24:42

kind of the beginning of it will likely be

1:24:44

a multi decade kind of new therapeutic modality

1:24:47

that's that's a steal accelerator out

1:24:49

of marsupials among them on the on the pricing

1:24:52

model here of hey on the way we

1:24:54

prices how much are we saving mean sure

1:24:56

is that who might price

1:24:58

optimization is are better model leader

1:25:01

have no idea how can i would like that

1:25:03

was on your side related to this season

1:25:07

there the masses hadn't

1:25:10

battle going on so christopher yeah

1:25:12

the and i think it's worth je

1:25:14

kao as you can give just a to set and primer

1:25:16

can i think we should talk about patterns just for a second

1:25:18

you know there are there is extreme

1:25:21

version which is what are you on is done and then there's the

1:25:23

other extreme version which is

1:25:24

the to folks fluttering over was over

1:25:26

domicile on has gone with putting the pan

1:25:29

sat making spans open source of putting a mother

1:25:31

and using them as a deterrent like nuclear

1:25:33

weapons have been that the us patent

1:25:35

trademark office published a ruling on

1:25:37

monday in favor of mit and

1:25:39

harvard over berkeley the ruined castle certain path

1:25:41

applications made by the university california's partners

1:25:44

learning a crisper system known as crisper see

1:25:47

a as nothing my cousin has nine

1:25:49

ruling states had they sell to provide persuasive evidence

1:25:51

that they got the gene editing technology to work before

1:25:54

the broader dead center question in spirit

1:25:56

as which group got the crisper cast

1:25:58

nineteen we the whole in here jason is

1:26:00

like there is a group

1:26:03

that buddy to incredible scientists

1:26:05

who they won the

1:26:07

nobel prize jennifer do not and emmanuelle

1:26:09

charpentier

1:26:12

there is berkeley and and

1:26:14

sheets of the emanuel her because

1:26:16

she's at she's at in germany

1:26:19

as then they were the

1:26:21

a different team

1:26:23

trying to develop a system for crisper cas

1:26:25

nine from mit the

1:26:28

harvard at the broad

1:26:30

the all file patents on top of each

1:26:32

other and this whole thing was a thing and

1:26:34

you know that the big implication

1:26:37

of all this all this a company supposed to do

1:26:39

it because if you are a company that wants to build a

1:26:41

crisper kasserine gene editing thing

1:26:44

lot there's a lot have situations where

1:26:46

a single point at a or abroad

1:26:48

at it can have a meaningful change in your health

1:26:51

so these are businesses that should exist

1:26:53

you didn't know what to do because if you like as he ip from

1:26:55

the wrong person you get sued

1:26:58

many companies now are like trying to license

1:27:00

both sets of patents i do think

1:27:02

to me frustrated me when i read this article

1:27:04

the and you know this is the conversation i had

1:27:06

with you guys in the group chat

1:27:08

i think we need to think of and imagine

1:27:10

a new way for path is to work because it

1:27:13

it shouldn't be the case said

1:27:15

you know folks are competing for

1:27:17

what is really effectively credit

1:27:19

and then what stops behind

1:27:21

them are all the commercial companies and the

1:27:23

investors and all of the and and on just

1:27:25

a normal individual data the people who wants

1:27:28

solutions to

1:27:29

solvable problems but the reason doesn't

1:27:31

get to the starting line is because of patent credit

1:27:34

the having to deal with patent trolls and i just

1:27:36

think that that's a terrible situation custody

1:27:38

specially if it's something that could change the course of humanity

1:27:41

almost feels like ah an arbitrator has

1:27:43

to come in here

1:27:44

the enforce a settlement where you think free burgers

1:27:46

the right thing to do obviously we have a tradition of

1:27:48

people getting too monetize

1:27:52

dare i say their innovations for some period of

1:27:54

time with a pen i have multiple businesses

1:27:56

i'm involved and where we are lovebirds

1:27:58

crisper the and

1:28:02

i will tell you that the the

1:28:05

group at harvard those are the history

1:28:07

of the group of harvard and the group at berkeley

1:28:10

argue each argue that they discovered crisper

1:28:13

cast nine around the same time to or is argue

1:28:15

that they just that they have a right to chris for technology

1:28:17

they've done their discovery that were made around

1:28:19

the same time and so for years

1:28:22

each of them have been starting companies the

1:28:24

licensing crisper technology to

1:28:26

different companies the all

1:28:29

those companies now quitting several that republic

1:28:31

it turns out that if this or

1:28:33

this related you

1:28:36

know it to be believe they actually have a license

1:28:38

to a technology that they may not actually have a license

1:28:40

to though am there

1:28:42

are the company that emerged to few years ago actually

1:28:45

made an open source version of this the system

1:28:48

and so i have at

1:28:50

least one company and gene added a imply that

1:28:52

plant see that it where we leverage

1:28:54

is open source version of the system and

1:28:57

are many more companies many more businesses

1:29:00

are embracing that open source alternative i

1:29:03

don't think that we see this turning out to

1:29:05

be any different than what we saw with the proliferation

1:29:07

of linux in computer

1:29:09

software where you

1:29:11

know microsoft or whoever was trying to make

1:29:14

everyone pay licensing fee to use their operating

1:29:16

system and guess what markets

1:29:18

discovered they discovered that hey

1:29:20

if someone

1:29:21

the able to make something free and open source that everyone

1:29:23

will embrace it and here we are out

1:29:25

where most of the internet it's run on open source

1:29:28

software so the

1:29:29

right i don't know what the right thing to do with

1:29:31

respect to patents are because he you know that

1:29:33

the truth is

1:29:35

the lot of very difficult very expensive

1:29:37

technologies are anti dollars go

1:29:39

into developing a technology that is theoretically

1:29:42

someone could look at it make a copy of it and

1:29:45

so i do think that there are right to defend

1:29:47

with respect to patents i

1:29:49

think that there is if there is something that is the

1:29:51

critical resource that an entire

1:29:54

industry really needs to access the

1:29:56

open source always and will emerge you know the markets the

1:29:58

care of it and i think we've already the met with respect

1:30:01

though i'm you know it's hard

1:30:03

to say at the end of the day you want a

1:30:05

license to my you know that that is a molecule

1:30:07

new the only person i can make that molecule make money from

1:30:09

it go ahead but if everyone's gonna

1:30:11

need that molecule to run their business of the change

1:30:13

the world some of going to make a cheaper alternative

1:30:16

or a free alternative that's just the way markets works out

1:30:18

sacks would like to recite a poem

1:30:20

for peace in the end of the podcast

1:30:22

he's gone totally soft a pacifist david

1:30:25

sacks know i'd like to i'd like to address

1:30:27

or lisa when you call me a pacifist some

1:30:29

so i think oh my god here we go after hours

1:30:32

this is all in after dark here we go even

1:30:34

existential pacifist that sacks reach

1:30:36

a point i was on past while not not really about look

1:30:38

i still believe in the idea of peace through strength

1:30:40

like reagan said okay but i remember

1:30:42

when we see what is the only

1:30:45

when when that we've had no war

1:30:47

since war to america as soon

1:30:49

and when straight shot mars

1:30:52

iraq war when we drove

1:30:54

saddam out with out of clay

1:30:56

that was george herbert walker bush or last

1:30:59

intentional war

1:31:00

well it was awesome last war that we

1:31:02

have seen one every other worry returns been

1:31:04

turned into a fiasco winning was pretty easy to

1:31:07

define get out of kuwait the other eyes were

1:31:09

drawn my revolutions but remember everybody

1:31:11

wanted him to go all the way and march into baghdad

1:31:13

and change the regime replace saddam

1:31:16

and he said no and he had the wisdom to

1:31:18

stop and everybody called him a whim

1:31:21

that he saw had the termination the end

1:31:23

of the western to stop and then what

1:31:25

happened is some from san ten years

1:31:27

later and they job they

1:31:29

get they take out saddam and they destabilize

1:31:32

the entire middle east that's what the

1:31:34

iron ass has got us so what

1:31:37

has turned me against these regime change wars

1:31:39

it's like when i was in college i thought or

1:31:42

walker bush was a wimp you know and and

1:31:44

george w bush was doing the right thing going into

1:31:46

iraq twenty years ago but

1:31:48

we've seen the results and anybody

1:31:51

to day who doesn't modify their point

1:31:53

of view on these regimes change wars the

1:31:56

fool i mean they're not paying attention

1:31:58

there for lindsey graham and your these

1:32:00

other guys out there to be propel

1:32:02

all republicans three talking about regime

1:32:04

change as something we should be seriously promoting

1:32:07

they've totally lost the script and they

1:32:09

should be denounced as reckless dangerous

1:32:12

fools an autopsy

1:32:14

on both sides of the aisle but what

1:32:16

we need to do dollars if it

1:32:18

ends up being the case of the russian people want to make

1:32:20

a change does a service that

1:32:22

is that are all the others are not opposing

1:32:25

something that they might wanna do but for

1:32:28

the idea that that should be our goals that

1:32:30

are aimed game dust or objective

1:32:33

does a recipe for disaster

1:32:35

it will just wind up getting in a perpetual war that

1:32:37

when we leave it will revert and that's what we

1:32:39

saw it reverts back to communists or authoritarianism

1:32:42

the people have to really one

1:32:44

revolutions are hard lot and

1:32:46

bloody

1:32:47

and if you think you can just go in there with a couple

1:32:50

of drones and get everybody to decide

1:32:52

we embrace democracy from this point forward because you drone

1:32:55

the hell out of the country

1:32:57

there's farcical and is proven to be wrong hundred

1:32:59

percent agree with you not know see stars and be possible

1:33:02

ms can be hard enough as it is to get

1:33:04

anything remotely like a deal but

1:33:06

if i may be possible is your you've

1:33:08

defined regime change he has your objective

1:33:11

way to dig kuittinen like that's literally

1:33:13

what he wants to you know that

1:33:16

that you're giving him the pretend

1:33:18

he needs to keep the thing going the

1:33:20

silver observation

1:33:22

everybody their your overtime sad little

1:33:25

success writers were freaking out the writers are not

1:33:27

as good as last point and because the for i pinned

1:33:29

him as a pacifist there are no writer so the

1:33:31

stuff they sell because look everybody on

1:33:33

cable news is sing and from the same

1:33:35

have known falling the same script they're all be

1:33:37

in rows of war

1:33:39

there's earlier to watch sheikh right now

1:33:41

which is we're not doing enough and words being

1:33:43

weak and by the nice to do more

1:33:45

not being we i agree having

1:33:48

were not you is nothing we are doing a lot

1:33:50

were doing a lot and which we careful

1:33:52

d our relation is the opposite of week these

1:33:55

economic sanctions are real we have to worry

1:33:58

i think we have to make sure that

1:34:00

economy is supported floor

1:34:02

we do it on that notes let's

1:34:04

pray for peace and we'll see you all

1:34:07

the next week on the podcast

1:34:09

the all in some in his may fifteen to seventeen

1:34:11

sixteenth and seventeenth are the two days of the conference

1:34:13

poker on the fifteenth or tournament

1:34:16

for charity

1:34:17

events every night or the week a

1:34:19

and a you can apply first scholarship at

1:34:21

the website summit dot all

1:34:23

in podcast dot com or just type in the all in summit

1:34:26

into google be the first link

1:34:28

i know four hundred and six hundred tickets

1:34:30

have been allocated i either sold

1:34:32

or for scholarships

1:34:34

into the best we can to have his great

1:34:36

of an audience they're as possible

1:34:39

and for the dictator to malfoy how pretty other

1:34:41

a man the attacks any

1:34:43

salt and sultan a science hot

1:34:45

off the launch of cannot regulations

1:34:47

turning literally water into wine or

1:34:50

david free bird i'm sure account and see

1:34:52

you know as know as as it

1:34:54

is

1:35:05

the other sources i

1:35:09

mean