0:00

but that's what he would have sweater that's a sweatshirt

0:02

that looks like

0:04

polyester or something okay quick

0:06

creeper come on the video where you're wearing the same thing

0:08

as soon as we can make a quick joke and s

0:11

morons i mean you guys

0:13

are so dumb the two of

0:15

you it's so rash

0:19

jason made me buy this outfit

0:21

and put it on and i'm like itching i'm about

0:23

to take this thing off polyester wool

0:25

polyurethane

0:27

made out of okay

0:46

everybody welcome back to the all in pot

0:48

though it or eighty seven

0:50

there we go

0:51

kind of news going on thanks robbery feedback

0:53

on episode eighty six

0:55

we're going to start with emerging markets

0:57

already had welcome to the program david free breaks open

1:00

a science the decatur himself from

1:02

his palace in sri lanka his

1:04

new palace in sri lanka and will be taking over

1:06

over there will get into that and sachs

1:09

is in a in witness protection right

1:11

now apparently where are you saxon

1:13

this white nondescript room then

1:15

you say where you are my some

1:17

proof padded room yeah always i would

1:19

have stafford bidens dot your biases during a

1:21

visit from place to put your to decipher

1:24

what do you rocked back and forth and same place

1:26

in ukraine inflation ukraine know is

1:28

how the rooms soundproof for in a better

1:30

part ousting oh look it's you taking the

1:33

taking the job serious unavailable spells

1:35

and skin people are

1:37

behind your something just put want to your money's behind

1:39

you hear the ones you haven't storage downstairs okay

1:42

emerging markets are facing some

1:44

huge challenges right now quick mark quick

1:46

primer on are three types of markets

1:48

developed emerging and the frontier

1:51

market if you don't know

1:52

developed markets are consider us japan your

1:54

up their gdp growth is lower single digits

1:56

typically in the emerging market

1:58

properly defined as developed

1:59

the not fully developed i include countries like the

2:02

bricks because brazil russia india

2:04

china and recently added south africa

2:06

many other markets

2:09

included a match their privacy called the third

2:11

world in the eighties people didn't like that term investors

2:14

will bet imam having the higher

2:16

gdp growth typically two times

2:18

or three times what the developed world has china

2:21

for example twenty nineteen six percent growth us

2:24

in thousand and eighteen two point one percent growth

2:27

of course is frontier market

2:29

these are viewed as small unstable illiquid

2:32

generally risky if you look at something i can

2:34

yet vietnam those

2:36

would fall into that category vietnam

2:39

seven percent gdp growth in twenty nineteen

2:41

to the u s is two percent sometimes people like

2:43

to big bets on them there's a nice will chart

2:45

for ya to look at and you can just see china forces

2:47

vietnam and united states since

2:50

the eighties and so why

2:52

is this all important while the wall street journal reported

2:54

last week that he abs the emerging markets have

2:57

been selling massive pressure will get a free

2:59

market in market moment that's moment that's market

3:01

to be clear but readings that

3:05

probably half dozen things going on let me just highlights

3:08

maybe the top five and until had dropped the best these

3:10

you have high bonded loan yields the deaths

3:13

death , are increasing in emerging

3:15

markets of frontier markets think

3:17

what happens when you got a variable mortgage a variable try to

3:19

get a new market a new mortgage the

3:22

developing markets the

3:25

developing market investors have stopped

3:27

investing in emerging markets and frontier

3:29

markets as you might suspect during downturns

3:32

they're even putting money out then you have

3:34

surging inflation we all know about that and

3:36

we'll talk about inflation you're in the us with leopard print

3:38

this morning and slowing

3:41

growth we've also talked about this for the last

3:43

six months on the program all these problems

3:45

get exacerbated when for economic

3:47

growth slows and it's slow and globally and then finally

3:50

we have the potential issue of contagion

3:53

we don't know exactly what's gonna happen

3:55

when verse countries the facing challenges

3:58

although we did tell you hear what would happen the ukraine

4:00

shut up two sacks

4:03

and free bird fertilizer we'd oil all that

4:05

good stuff and it's becoming very

4:08

cute that's the carried a canary

4:10

canary in the coal mine is sri lanka breaking

4:13

news president your

4:16

purchase a sled for the melodies

4:18

and it's a state of emergency curfews her to

4:20

clear declared i think that's been cancelled

4:22

as of the taping of this we

4:24

can get into a state of sri lanka

4:27

your thoughts freiburg i know you've been shopping

4:29

at the bet to discuss this yeah now's a good long and

4:31

throw i think i'm the

4:36

the high level

4:37

for me if you look kind

4:40

of as debt markets around the world there's about three

4:42

hundred trillion dollars of global sad and

4:44

i put this chart in the as

4:46

chattered next he can put it on earth i'm

4:48

on the video

4:51

and about one hundred trillions of that

4:53

that globally

4:54

they then

4:56

emerging markets thirty

4:59

countries generally have much

5:01

more kind of

5:03

variable

5:04

gdp growth as well

5:06

as challenges ultimately with their currencies

5:09

most of this that

5:11

recently and this is an apprentice or

5:13

number of years lately have been issued

5:15

in their local currency rather

5:18

than in us dollars and so as the

5:20

currency devaluation

5:22

it becomes more challenging for an investor

5:24

to make a return if they're investing

5:27

from at us dollar denominated base

5:29

or some other dollar denominated

5:31

no i'm lucky

5:33

the emerging markets are are are heavily

5:36

saddled i mean some of these countries have over

5:38

eerie hundred percent

5:40

for two hundred and sixty percent

5:42

that to gdp

5:44

then what really got on recently i

5:47

is that many of them as net importers

5:49

of energy and food i didn't

5:51

struggle to make the stuff they need to make

5:53

at home or to see their people at home because

5:56

of the rising inflation that's been happening around

5:58

the world

5:59

there are those goods and services those kinds

6:03

are imported goods is more expensive that

6:05

makes it more challenging for people to be

6:07

able to afford food to be able to afford energy

6:10

this is part of what we're seeing happening in

6:13

our ensure lotta with com adding

6:15

that as we have rising inflation rising the us so as

6:17

we been talking about talking lot the feds been

6:19

raising interest rates here in the us which means that you

6:21

can now buy groceries that deal three percent

6:24

you're an investor around the world where

6:26

are you going to put your money set us treasuries

6:28

in a motorbike this you want to buy

6:31

three percent yield in us dollars versus

6:34

you know getting ten percent yields and

6:36

you know some currency denominated

6:38

accounts and currency denominated bond in a country

6:41

you don't really know our trust as much as the united states

6:43

and so as a result a lot of dollars

6:46

are moving out of emerging market that into

6:48

us that on the price of

6:51

that debt has collapsed and so we see in

6:53

the last couple of months a decline

6:55

of emerging markets that of about one percent

6:58

that makes it harder for the contrary to issue

7:00

new dead the fun things and it's creating

7:02

this really challenging spiral that

7:05

may ultimately lead to be false those

7:07

the false absolutely have a prevailing effect

7:10

in one country since the default and you're an investor

7:12

in emerging markets that you're going to say hey

7:14

wait a second this this this i just took a huge

7:16

loss in his position you can assert the sell

7:18

off other emerging market that and then it becomes

7:20

harder for the contrary to raise more that and fun themselves

7:23

and it's and cause a cataclysmic spiral

7:25

so it's you know it's a really scary scenario

7:27

where wading into now and i think we really

7:29

hope that the u s sensitive for interest

7:32

rates and we find some stability in these methods

7:34

over the next couple of months because it's not

7:36

as the food and energy crisis it's also humanitarian

7:39

crisis and ultimately could return a

7:41

global financial crisis on a

7:43

bond issue is that it's highly complex

7:45

but it's something that parts are talking very

7:47

closer what's happening also is the companies

7:50

that were already at risk are going

7:52

to start feeling this impact

7:54

we could jump into sri lanka if we want we

7:56

like a has

7:57

reading

7:58

a bunch of shorts whose and

8:01

the couple a very long term issues let

8:04

me set the backdrop because i think this think this interesting

8:06

let's take thirty

8:09

three month get through the lens of to other countries

8:11

jamaica and singapore the

8:14

people although you back to nineteen sixty

8:16

so you know roughly one singapore became

8:18

a nation

8:20

the jamaican population in nineteen sixty

8:23

was one point six million people singaporean

8:26

population was one point six

8:29

million people the longest

8:31

population was nine point eight million jamaica's

8:35

gdp was seven hundred million singapore

8:38

gdp was seven hundred million we

8:41

like as was one point four billie fast

8:44

forward to two thousand and twenty

8:46

two seen jamaica gdp is about

8:48

thirteen billion the

8:51

poor gdp has

8:53

grown to the three hundred and sixty billion

8:57

and three month as gdp is

8:59

eighty billion so what what is singapore

9:01

do well what did jamaica

9:04

trying to get right because one of the things that the tucked

9:06

in settlers or population even know their gdp didn't

9:08

expand their much per capita income still

9:10

quite healthy then what is real

9:12

i could get right what did we like a get wrong though

9:15

some things when you look at singapore is that

9:18

they found a way to

9:20

embrace it

9:22

might a very heterogeneous culture

9:25

set of religions in sight of that entity

9:28

in that inside that city state they

9:30

found a way to promote multiculturalism

9:32

yet also promote english as a lingua franca

9:35

why was that small things so important

9:38

because it allowed them to be a hub the

9:40

rest of the world in a way that many

9:42

many other countries couldn't do the

9:45

second thing that they had like

9:47

a very low level of corruption because

9:49

they had a leader in that case lee kuan

9:51

yew then

9:53

again some people in the west will painted as slightly

9:56

authoritarian the you

9:58

know he would painted as eden valley

9:59

the

10:00

the net result of it was very low levels of

10:02

corruption a small but highly

10:04

effective public service and

10:07

meaningful investments in education and healthcare

10:10

to make that country grover decades and

10:12

within a generation that country

10:14

completely chino exceeded all expectations

10:17

really

10:20

think struggle through a civil war

10:22

i was a all product of that civil war

10:25

the it was partly religious was partly

10:27

ethnic and

10:29

it was twenty plus years in

10:32

the making and then the happening

10:34

and he took a very right wing

10:37

autocratic leader the brother

10:39

of the current deposed president to

10:41

basically rooted out now in order to rooted

10:43

out they were enormous amounts

10:45

of war crimes and all kinds of things that i don't

10:48

think anybody would support accepted

10:50

brought i'm amount of stability

10:52

so then you would have thought okay maybe

10:54

this is the point at which you can now really

10:57

start to grow these

10:59

guys yet again found a way to

11:01

naval base and just to infuse so

11:04

much corruption in graft inside of how

11:06

the government run by the way the wasn't just the right

11:08

there was also the left a

11:11

two and a half times more on defense as

11:13

of last year than they did when they were more time

11:16

the make much sense the public service

11:18

crudo largest ever did

11:21

in a moment where you know you really should have

11:23

prioritized private enterprise so

11:25

all of these things sort of created a situation

11:28

where they fundamentally didn't know what they were doing

11:30

so at the other two issues there i think

11:33

about the great summary of like really those

11:35

fancy or countries and what may two hundred singapore

11:37

also has a great strategic location

11:40

which relies tiny shares they're both island

11:42

countries strategically located for

11:44

trade then

11:47

i guess the policies right singapore went on

11:49

a very very aggressive ah

11:51

tax and business policy

11:54

effort to sri lanka do that as well and

11:56

then maybe could speak to just how important

11:58

those are as islands you know

12:01

enter and their geography could you make it

12:03

doesn't obviously have the

12:04

i mean sri lanka has his massive growing

12:06

importance is china

12:08

has emerged

12:10

the problem in these last few years is that they

12:12

did everything possible not

12:15

just the illini china but to alienate everybody

12:17

on every dimension possible you

12:19

know they really need china the

12:22

du coup to growl was that there was an enormous

12:25

shipment of fertilizer chemical fertilizer

12:27

that was sent to the ports

12:29

then it was severely rejected and turned around

12:32

somewhere along the way the leadership

12:34

in sri lanka decided that they were

12:36

woke and so they enforce our every farmer

12:39

or now to go organic the prominent

12:41

sewing organic and organic fertilizer was

12:43

all the small farm shutdown all

12:46

the large farms had twenty to thirty percent crop

12:48

yields reductions

12:49

the prices of food went crazy

12:51

the reverse policies two or three times

12:54

and really what they sound as that you know they tried

12:56

to go woke instead they went broke then

12:59

all of a sudden all these other countries who are they are trying

13:01

to help said wait what is going on you said

13:04

the offended china the offended the middle easterners

13:06

this ended the japanese by cutting a

13:08

light rail project that japan wanted to fight i mean

13:11

it's every step of the way they d industrialized

13:13

the country found a what did indeed does feel

13:16

as they try to follow this whoop what

13:18

agenda is the industrialization i mean

13:20

reversing from like the modern techniques

13:22

of industrial production like fertilizer

13:24

and modern systems a farming is the

13:26

industrialization it's it's farm

13:29

you know it's gonna be a curse ultimately sacks

13:31

to your point we we we just discuss his last

13:33

week with the farmers

13:36

if you're in a frontier market

13:38

trying to adopt the regulations

13:41

and the city's your goals for the environment

13:43

of the emerging market is like to

13:45

giant hops it's it's it's it's probably

13:47

insurmountable well like

13:49

a the there's a strong algae between the

13:51

populist uprising is happening in the

13:54

netherlands with the does farmers and up populist

13:56

uprising this happening in sri lanka basically

13:59

there winning the same policies such we

14:01

want as a further down the road

14:03

and as a poor country to begin with so

14:06

you're like to mouth mention in april of last

14:08

year the sri lankan government banned the and

14:10

producer chemical fertilizers and pesticides

14:12

used in farming say began went with

14:14

this idea they celtic courage organic farming

14:17

though the result of that was that

14:19

overall production or

14:21

cultural blocks install by a third and

14:24

rice production fell by forty three percent and

14:26

rice's drove the biggest staple the

14:28

country's now you got people they're starving

14:31

are going hungry got massive suit

14:33

and security as well as a whole economy we

14:36

have been crippled the result

14:38

of that a society of firstly collapse so

14:40

you know now what would the question is why

14:43

did the sri lankan government feel compelled

14:45

to adopt these policies one

14:47

else to do with the factor getting these massive loans

14:49

from the world bag and the i m f and

14:52

the world bank and so forth are imposing these yeah

14:54

steel requirements so three watch

14:56

as something like i'd ninety eight percent vs

14:59

g rating even as their

15:01

economy and society the collapsing

15:04

how's that possible what they're doing a great

15:06

job falling the prescriptions the

15:08

global elites are davos i mean the sort

15:10

of global elite wise into

15:12

davos from brussels or washroom on

15:14

their private planes that panels on

15:17

e s g and then they prescribe these policies

15:19

for countries like free markets and this is

15:21

a result i mean it's crazy stephen

15:23

telling us for years that somehow there's no trade

15:25

off between their environmentalists

15:28

policies creating a healthy growing

15:30

economy indices of examples that's

15:32

not true there are real trade offs

15:34

year and the crazy thing is

15:36

the elites expect more people

15:39

in sri lanka to make up for

15:42

there environmental emissions as

15:44

not really fair at all here's another example

15:46

in march of twenty twenty three letter

15:48

in force one of the world's strictest

15:51

china asked ovid nine

15:53

lockdowns cover ninety not as despite

15:56

one of the lowest death rates and

15:58

infection rates in the

15:59

though

16:00

so for nearly three months it's literally

16:03

cripple the economy in the livelihood

16:05

of citizens there here's where

16:07

it gets crazy then the

16:09

actually go against global best practice

16:11

and the band the burrito of covert

16:13

nineteen victims claiming that

16:15

it could lead to groundwater contamination i

16:17

don't even know how they came up with you

16:20

know what is it was it significantly undermines

16:23

the small minority of

16:25

the country that is muslim because a religious

16:27

practice their you know is you bury

16:29

your death that cause great

16:32

pains to them and it's it's as

16:34

in turn it hurt all these international relationships

16:36

with all these gulf nations then

16:39

you you com other way around and then you go back to the

16:41

same gulf nations a few months later and you're like can

16:43

i have subsidized oil know i can

16:45

no not so much

16:47

and just to get paid a picture what's happening there right

16:49

now as i mentioned before it's

16:51

it's pretty much a state of emergency you could see there's

16:53

videos running on social media and

16:56

your oil take those with some caution because

16:58

sometimes people will take clips out

17:00

of context or i'll label them and

17:02

correctly and correctly clips from other moments had times

17:05

but what's really happening there right now you

17:07

shared a video in our group shot

17:08

is in everything is now

17:12

the the old out in very

17:15

small amount so there there there

17:17

are lines for

17:18

basic goods and inflation

17:21

is is crippling there and as

17:23

three bird mentioned they started to pin

17:26

there the exchange rate the

17:29

end and their currency to

17:32

i guess the world's exchange rate and now

17:34

everything is super expensive

17:37

and essential imports fall

17:39

like food in madison and fuel they don't

17:41

have the money to pay for it so this is going to

17:43

be a complete societal collapse it seems

17:46

the never need to get bailed out there was a bill

17:48

that was introduced in the government that said the central

17:51

bank

17:52

the

17:54

the worst to have a discipline

17:57

on money printing sense familiar the

17:59

noted twenty twenty the central bank of sri lanka

18:01

began printing money in order to finance

18:04

going budget deficit again happens in

18:06

many countries

18:08

and they did that in part to facility

18:10

election promise that they made that they would maintain

18:12

single digits interest rates again

18:14

sounds really familiar

18:16

though

18:17

the printed about one hundred billion

18:19

rupees in march in the next two years

18:22

the central bank printed one point six

18:24

five trillion rupees

18:26

right to sixteen and a half times that first

18:28

number

18:29

and as a result what they saw was the highest

18:31

inflation in post independence history the

18:34

time after time what you're actually seeing

18:36

in sri lanka not a microcosm

18:38

of something that's endemic to whatever

18:41

you want to colleges in a developing country a third

18:43

world country center

18:45

the fence your country is southeast asian countries

18:47

in fact it actually resembles many

18:50

of the policies that exists in so

18:52

many countries all around the world and what's

18:55

really important here is it has

18:57

goes sri lanka so

18:59

goes gonna so goes pakistan

19:02

so goes of whole bunch of countries

19:04

where you're already starting to see food

19:07

riots food insecurity energy

19:09

security rampant inflation the

19:12

sovereign default and

19:14

you have to ask yourself like how are we

19:16

going to really tourniquet this whole thing

19:18

and prevent a much bigger contagion

19:21

like rebirth just talked about i think it's a we

19:23

might reality olds you must be because

19:26

ah you mention coven it turns out

19:29

a lot of these frontier countries were

19:31

already on get release and

19:33

being given a moratorium on

19:35

making their debt payments since they got so

19:37

while up during cove it then now

19:40

the other shoe drops and here we are

19:42

there's no relief you can give them if they're already

19:44

not paying their loans in some cases by

19:46

the way here's another thing that happens in a lot of these developing

19:49

countries so in the middle of all this chaos what

19:51

he thinks happen the parliament got together

19:53

the past as a member to the constitution

19:55

and it in forests and it gave incremental

19:58

power to one individual depressed

20:00

typically in most of these countries that run

20:03

by a parliamentary system the president is a

20:05

cigarette right the person shows

20:07

up me know he can

20:09

kiss his babies that's it right maybe convenes

20:11

the senate a bad is it

20:14

now what a sudden the person has control over

20:16

defense control over budget control of a central

20:18

bank

20:19

the person cannot be you

20:21

know voted out in the no confidence vote the same

20:23

way that a prime minister that happened

20:25

here as well so yet another example of

20:27

if you start to see a bunch of autocrats

20:30

and somebody is developing markets feel

20:32

like the answers more power it's

20:34

been tried here it did more though

20:36

i think that there's a there's a lot of lessons i

20:40

i'm a little concerned and skeptical that many

20:42

of these other developing countries that are teetering on insolvency

20:45

will actually learn i

20:47

mean what they need to we are the definition

20:49

of the developed world reportedly

20:51

and we have a president who tried

20:53

to stay in power stolen election sell it

20:55

as it literally is happening here and united

20:57

states as well the parallels are truly

21:00

terrifying right the cp i i'm

21:02

i'm sorry asceticism was rolling my eyes

21:05

or followed or is as well as or noise from

21:07

iraq that's what it was it's actually like

21:09

a boulder right honey health by sorry costume

21:11

also questioned up the model

21:13

model way if people don't know tomorrow is

21:15

of sri lankan dissenters to make that clear if you

21:17

didn't hear his mentioned what he did you go there a

21:19

couple years ago i mean

21:21

here's another great example of

21:23

in this case this was the last who

21:26

managed to the things

21:28

up so it's not just the right said screw things up

21:30

in that country select as well so in this example

21:33

i went there and i

21:36

offered to bring google loon myself

21:38

in google we

21:40

offered to bring internet access to the entire like,

21:43

guaranteed internet access this

21:46

is like years ago the

21:48

and we set up an entity and

21:50

the government tried to do the right

21:53

thing and grandson spectrum

21:55

and instead of sort of like

21:57

the fast tracking this and allow

22:01

you know this project to become a reality

22:04

there was an enormous amount of inciting

22:08

that essentially said that you know we were

22:10

trying to steal the license or we saw

22:12

the license or we were trying to monetize a license

22:15

and both me and google were just like

22:17

forget this this is not worth it and we abandon the

22:19

project and walked away instead

22:21

google ends up servicing a whole bunch of other countries

22:23

in the reason why sri lanka was part of it is because

22:26

the blues follow a certain orbit

22:28

and he would have it copied would go over

22:31

sri lanka no matter what so it's kind of like we

22:33

can light it up for free all we need a spectrum in

22:35

this country googles already doing that were you

22:38

know i've i've i've gone there few times i

22:42

found it very difficult to try to do the right thing

22:44

i think people there's a level of

22:46

infighting

22:47

that i hope this crisis

22:49

angel i also think that

22:52

it's an opportunity for people to

22:54

reset writ large

22:56

the gerontocracy that runs many of these

22:59

countries including the united states quite honestly

23:01

the there is an opportunity there

23:03

are some you know my friends who

23:05

i think may emerge in the next few

23:07

weeks we're

23:10

very well known people in that country who

23:12

literally want to step one the

23:16

move most of the executive

23:18

power from the presidency make

23:20

it a true you know parliamentary

23:22

south system with an empowered prime minister

23:24

and empowered elect elected

23:26

officials and let the country run at six itself

23:29

you know d prioritise and defense spending

23:31

d prioritize the growth of the public sector

23:34

reap prioritize the growth of

23:36

the private sector i hope they're successful as

23:39

would love to invest if given the opportunity

23:42

hundred those kinds of market conditions and

23:44

i would love to go back at some point but my

23:47

history with the country has been very fraught because

23:49

the as i've gone to try to do the work free bird

23:53

people are just haters and

23:55

now here is a growing up their nose off

23:57

despite the field they said visits to the worst

23:59

things smart there's a i think you have a

24:01

second swing a bat here only fifty

24:04

percent or so of people in sri lanka have internet

24:06

access and maybe we could

24:08

talk to her friend over starlink and

24:11

that could be an incredible mitzvah and and

24:13

changing as you get one hundred percent of the country on

24:15

internet i got back to change everything

24:17

and it seems you have reasonable by

24:19

the way in this is the most literate country in

24:21

the world the up understand like the people in that country's

24:24

the human potential i country is incredible

24:27

okay there are not developing countries

24:30

like this that had this type of literacy

24:32

the and the kindness of the people

24:34

these are incredible hardworking people the

24:37

elected class

24:40

some of the most inward navel

24:42

gazing corrupt people this

24:45

is the opportunity for the young people of that country

24:47

to wipe the slate clean with all of them

24:50

and start over with some i think i'm

24:53

illiteracy rate is ninety two percent or something

24:55

crazy there it's it's very high the

24:57

highly educated literate group

24:59

of people the truth is the number of people living

25:02

in extreme poverty has plummeted

25:05

thanks to globalization we went from

25:07

almost get two billion people living

25:09

in extreme poverty now a it's

25:11

gonna be that's for the and in our lifetimes we

25:13

have maybe five hundred six hundred million people living in extreme

25:15

poverty that's because of globalization

25:18

that's the great thing that's happened now was

25:20

also habit of the same time as people have

25:22

gotten that a think we have the leads to sachs's

25:24

point who think they know better and they're trying

25:26

to enforce on enough merging market

25:28

or a frontier market god forbid the

25:30

things that we have the luxury of doing in

25:33

the desert we don't even do wait

25:35

hold on we'll we'll

25:37

we'll ban chemical fertilizers in the western

25:40

world what western do have of europe has standards

25:42

for gas mileage gas but went over there

25:44

we have emissions standards we have the

25:46

accords that we've been working on all of these things

25:48

are starting are the developed world

25:51

and now exactly two exactly day we just saying

25:53

is were taken from the developer we are imposing

25:55

them and sri lanka apparently embrace

25:57

it embrace it the appointment

26:00

three longer is not rich

26:02

enough to resist exactly issue

26:04

so the us as and he

26:06

has to rating of fifty one percent sherlock as

26:08

ninety eight percent why is that because

26:10

in our country we're not can impose these crazy

26:13

mandates there's enough resistance to it

26:15

but if you're in three longer

26:17

and you have these massive loans and debt service

26:20

you have to do what di

26:23

martin of world bank in always in international

26:25

what your surgery to do yes

26:27

exactly they're the ones you impose all this

26:29

stuff so great so three all

26:31

kinds of the ninety percent near perfect

26:34

s g rating even as the country's completely

26:36

collapsing read the sullenberger article

26:38

here he says dinner one reason for the false

26:40

relaunches as leaders fell under the spell

26:43

of western green elites peddling

26:45

organic old agriculture and he is

26:47

t then he mentions

26:49

the three aren't as a near perfect score of ninety eight

26:51

tired and sweden which is eighty six us and fifty

26:54

want what does having setai years

26:56

to score mean it's sort of means as real

26:58

august two million farmers were forced

27:00

to stop using fertilizers and pesticides

27:03

laying waste his critical agricultural sector then

27:06

a good goes on from there the

27:09

it was the imposition it

27:11

is not that three launches politicians

27:14

implemented sri lankan ideas cause

27:17

the collapse of their country they implemented

27:19

western ideas and for money or ohio corrupt

27:21

see so here's a comedy sir an offer actually

27:24

very much as they implemented the ideas

27:26

they learn at davos it's almost perverse

27:28

you've got all these you know western

27:31

elites again like john kerry and so forth they

27:33

find their private jets davos comedies

27:36

yes you was they coerce

27:38

countries like syria wanted to obey them in

27:41

into people's we want to end up paying the price

27:44

this is make any sense

27:48

what's your reaction of magic health isn't i don't blame

27:50

is on trial no

27:54

yourself how trump has to do with as

27:57

your gobbled up by mean i'm still

27:59

thinking about it

27:59

the principles

28:01

you know we we should as a is

28:03

it our species humanity should

28:05

be trying to trend towards taking care of the

28:07

planet and lowering emissions and

28:09

being in renewables and then how we go

28:11

about doing it perhaps there was didn't tenth year

28:14

but obviously of the country is corrupt and

28:16

your teetering already and they don't have the bank

28:18

roll to do it forcing them to do it can

28:20

lead to collapse nobody forced anybody

28:22

but what did the score give you it's not as if it's

28:25

all of that i've gotten them by nature of you

28:27

get your alone if you do these

28:29

yeah see requirements so that is forcing

28:31

them to factor okay fair enough but i'm saying

28:33

like you know now that you have discourse not as if you

28:35

issued green bonds and you could stave off

28:37

anymore no they didn't do anything

28:40

you what you said before as a look at the sri sri

28:42

lanka should be looking at what singapore did and

28:44

just copy the playbook right i mean it's so obvious

28:47

that you know a country with a requires

28:49

a level of long term leadership and

28:51

and a lot of

28:52

the lack of corruption and i think those those

28:55

two things are very hard to come by and i think a third

28:57

which is a very controversial safe and makers required

29:00

singapore to adopt english as a lingua franca

29:02

announcer this to singapore they also brace multiculturalism

29:05

right so if you had forced you know

29:07

at first but you had bilingualism in the school

29:09

so hindi malays or

29:11

sorry tamil malays chinese right

29:14

you could you would learn all of those and so you

29:16

know you you captain ethno centricity

29:18

to where you came from they

29:21

they allowed you to understand a lingua franca

29:23

that allowed you to merchandiser skills to the rest

29:25

of the weight and eventually bought are you saying they

29:27

adopted the melting pot playbook

29:29

and they allowed everybody from around the world to have

29:31

their concert but yet participate in a common

29:34

go oh my god literally if is

29:36

a melting pot to young people today and everybody should

29:39

try to adopt you know a new

29:41

culture but keep some of their own people

29:43

find great offense to that that's

29:45

where we were all taught the melting pot is what made this

29:47

country great an ugly one you to scalded multiculturalism

29:51

but my my point is that you know having

29:54

the english decision by singapore was important

29:57

i think steady predictable leadership by lee kuan

29:59

yew was really

29:59

the go

30:02

the i know lack of corral it is you

30:04

know the way in which they they they promoted

30:06

their public sector meaning you know some of the

30:08

best thing jobs and singapore was the public sector

30:10

job right like you would aspire

30:12

to work for the government singapore and

30:14

so as a result you at policies and movements

30:16

and and the movement of capital and progress

30:19

and rules separatists or it's an example

30:21

first for so many countries and

30:24

you you look where they are today for such a small population

30:26

sad the same gdp by the you should vietnam

30:29

step a larger gdp the vietnam which

30:31

is an incredible states

30:33

definitely singapore's of ingenuity

30:35

so

30:36

could that have been three lot that i think

30:38

so knowing that

30:41

you know that the levels of literacy

30:43

and intelligence and frankly mike

30:45

look that the religious stability that can

30:47

come from buddhism yeah

30:50

we're not that brave worst where we are today

30:52

which is a shame the and

30:54

mrs the canary in a call my i think we're going to save

30:56

freiburg out at or know what you think

30:58

is going to happen over the next six months the

31:01

going to be other domino certainly yes i mean

31:03

i watch for arab

31:05

spring tides behavior right i mean

31:07

you saw the protests and people stormy

31:09

the presidential palace and for a lotta

31:12

the you know if i would

31:14

imagine if we had a

31:16

report from the

31:19

intelligence advisers to the president the

31:21

united states there's probably a

31:23

long list and a growing list the

31:26

nation's you want to keep an eye on right now where

31:29

there is food insecurity energy security

31:32

declining currency you

31:34

know rising debt burden and

31:37

you know there's a breaking point for all of these

31:40

and as you said to it hit that breaking

31:42

point you start to see more what happens rock us

31:44

now when destabilization like this happens

31:47

is scary because what happens

31:50

is there's a new power that emerges

31:52

those powers may or may not be aligned

31:54

with the interests of the united states of the interests

31:56

of allies with the interests of the world would

31:59

the interests of western democracy and

32:01

so there are kind of scary moments that can

32:03

emerge over the next couple of quarters and

32:05

years as the camel's

32:08

back start to break as one

32:10

straw after another is put on

32:12

the back and camels of my and who's

32:14

the white knight who's gonna come in and savior and

32:16

twenty or more specifically be china india

32:18

russia or the nice mates were plowing forty

32:21

billion dollars insists supporting the ukraine

32:23

conflict yeah

32:25

we're busy kind of protecting our energy

32:28

interests and our interests

32:30

with nato has as the united states

32:32

and as you point out china will

32:34

likely end up becoming the savior and

32:36

supporter particularly where they have

32:39

infrastructure investments and and interests

32:41

i mean i don't have you guys have followed as china's been building

32:44

presidential palaces for african

32:46

leaders throughout the continent the

32:48

mohammed anywhere either incredible you guys

32:50

super photos of a month and a video

32:52

but i have a that's the wrong one that

32:54

sex is house so sorry guys out that

32:57

, out of our our next was sort

33:00

of or not they might put such as as the same so many

33:02

things but there are no reports of

33:04

the brother president i just for sorry that the as

33:06

from us never saw any way but

33:08

yeah businesses are are know

33:11

a moment to watch because

33:13

there's a very you know unfortunate confluence

33:16

of circumstances that may lead to

33:18

destabilization that may lead to

33:20

influence and power been gained by folks

33:23

and aren't direct allies the united states and

33:25

this is why he want to build up a great

33:27

cash reserve and have a really

33:29

stable economy so that when these moments

33:31

to happen

33:32

you know the good actors the world can take advantage

33:34

of us prose the that once in the united states is not

33:37

a great position for this every

33:39

society as they say

33:40

the me out three miss meals away from tire

33:44

there are now for record nineteen

33:46

developing countries the

33:48

sovereign debt trading at the stress levels

33:50

nineteen and to that have already started

33:53

that's just know the united man as

33:55

nukes ryan i'm a of as scientists

33:57

months that's problematic well

33:59

and package then pick it was famous

34:01

for enabling other countries iran

34:04

north korea reportedly they

34:06

look at their nukes as an export and

34:08

they are more than willing to sell years later acknowledged

34:10

as you guys are like from fort you know there are

34:12

currently as of today inflation protests

34:15

going on across the locker albania argentina

34:18

panama tenure donna

34:20

and if you look at the videos

34:22

and you look at the images are some of these protests

34:24

and again there's like you know in the african

34:27

continent there are you

34:29

know very radical militant groups that will

34:31

try and seize power if they're see stabilization

34:34

at the top

34:35

the and you know there are there are risks

34:37

in in south america i mean all

34:39

over the world are you know these

34:41

sorts of moments to catalyze

34:43

a real shift in power and influence

34:46

the ender and and there's a lot of it going

34:48

on so you better believe that sucks in the

34:50

us state department the cia are very busy right

34:52

now

34:52

if you are if you look at bond prices

34:55

the three countries that are the next closest

34:57

to defaulting so rush has defaulted but that was

34:59

more of a agree no foreign

35:01

currency controls that that didn't allow them to

35:03

pay between like as officially he folded in the next

35:05

three or el salvador gone on pakistan

35:09

by the way argentina to see guys know

35:11

the argentinian print on inflation

35:15

the only things are several the nxt

35:17

one for sense that , we

35:20

are nine point nine know they had know they the

35:22

fault of years ago renegotiate since

35:24

they've been back at the table over and over negotiating

35:27

for years

35:28

and now they're facing the sad

35:30

disinflationary crisis yet again

35:33

it's a it's a scary moments in

35:35

argentina

35:37

this is exactly what the european crisis

35:39

with the portugal

35:42

italy greece and spain we're

35:44

going to see a lotta negotiations occurring i really

35:46

believe in this country and i think the people are incredible

35:48

and i hope that the

35:51

whoever the president

35:53

agreed

35:55

as much power away from that role in person

35:57

of and the prime minister gets a little

35:59

right

35:59

what my hobby for the best okay cp

36:02

ice as everybody who listens this our

36:04

nose is a basket of goods and services

36:06

and how it changes over time he could slice

36:08

and dice the cp i ah be found

36:11

food energy shelter your house etc

36:13

last two months have been just extraordinary

36:16

to watch driven obviously by energy

36:18

which has been driven by the russia

36:21

ukrainian conflict to the sack

36:23

rant on bidens administration

36:25

the core index doesn't include

36:27

energy and so if you were to look at the core

36:30

and index it and here's a chart

36:32

five point nine percent in june

36:35

the end it peaked actually with six

36:38

point five percent

36:40

in march so that's been trending down

36:43

if you take energy out of it we

36:45

, an exposure was rude i think are are

36:47

excluded from core yeah and

36:49

if we haven't we haven't

36:51

experienced core inflation like this since the seventies

36:53

or eighties here's another charges to zoom out

36:56

and you'll see exactly how

36:58

during this has been for basically

37:01

our generation we haven't experienced

37:03

since if you were born in the seventies or so

37:05

that's when it was higher than it is

37:07

today the and we

37:10

had obviously goods and services plummet

37:12

in our lifetime because the globalization

37:14

and low interest rates hour energy

37:16

hasn't seen inflation like this

37:19

since is already what does this or the cpr

37:21

what is that that is the core so that

37:23

are so if i sat score so and then

37:25

here's the energy

37:27

one coming up next so we'll look at energy

37:29

obviously energy has

37:32

been volatile in our lifetime

37:34

because lifetime because of the oil in

37:36

the world is controlled by dictators middle east

37:38

russia of and as well yada yada the

37:40

forty percent year over year ah

37:42

increase in cost of gas

37:44

and oil and energy has

37:47

put us back to the mid seventies eighties in terms

37:49

of pain that this short say said spike

37:51

in all over the place but generally it was

37:53

under twenty percent and now we're back above

37:56

twenty percent is all about the oil

37:59

the market

37:59

we're talking and the group chat before you

38:02

were kind of satisfied with nine point one do you think

38:04

the nine point one we're seeing in inflation

38:07

print today which was hired

38:09

and expectations

38:11

what did i can lead to in terms of the interest

38:13

rate hike seventy five basis points or you

38:15

think they just go right to one you know we talked

38:17

about this that this is gonna be a big print i

38:19

think we all expected this to be a big print

38:22

the actually also kind of put myself on

38:24

a limb there and i said new no i wouldn't be surprised

38:26

if at some point we printer hi

38:29

nine maybe even a ten handle it so yeah point

38:31

not get there

38:33

the reason is because you

38:35

know rents are a little

38:38

chino they lag in how

38:41

they report is inside of cp i so

38:43

we have a couple more months to go as

38:45

branson rents are moving or

38:47

budging a bit

38:51

number one i'm we do see

38:53

a little bit of fall off and in energy prices

38:55

butts i'm not sure that it's it's enough

38:57

frankly to to move the needle so i think

38:59

that we could be in a sustained period for while the

39:03

more interesting thing i saw today was

39:05

that canada surprised everybody

39:07

and raised there benchmark interest

39:09

rate by a hundred basis points okay sadie

39:12

hawkins one four point one hundred bits and they

39:14

just said we're going for it we need to team

39:17

we need to break the back of inflation

39:19

they ripped a band it off yeah

39:21

and you know and i think if you read

39:23

the said minutes more carefully

39:25

i think jerome powell is basically ready

39:28

to do the same thing yep past the disinflation

39:30

friend the expectation for july

39:33

my pick tv basis points from seventy

39:35

five which means a small percentage of people

39:38

ought to think it's gonna be one hundred in

39:40

september i think moved to seventy five so

39:45

the question is is that enough

39:46

i

39:48

just don't know i

39:51

i don't know and to be clear

39:53

this is for june the data we are today

39:55

june july thirty this for june what

39:57

we did see in july cause we can track well

39:59

it is that down twenty percent movement

40:02

over months and the cpr has been driven

40:04

largely by oil suspected aftermath

40:06

what do you think it's gonna be in july

40:08

when we get it in august of a yes or no because

40:10

the again the owner a cool though the rest are

40:13

up so much that they may actually

40:15

you know breakeven meaning

40:17

rent go up by so much oil gonna

40:19

buy so much they cancel and we're still at night

40:22

can i could not your prediction for july which

40:24

will get in august he big nine he

40:26

i'm worried that we're in a sustained

40:28

inflationary environment i'm worried

40:30

about that i hope that we're not the

40:34

then the question jason secondarily is and one

40:36

of the markets to and so interesting

40:38

today is like the markets shook it all

40:40

off i mean like you could not have had a worse

40:42

inflation print everything was up while

40:45

ten meaning meeting like

40:47

he was going beyond the number that was

40:49

expected every component of it was up

40:51

everything looked horrible and

40:54

people like me them

40:56

is that because the market it's future looking csx

40:59

he was being an ugly pricing

41:02

will get through this and six to twelve months is our

41:04

years on the most of the mothers are down i now to be clear

41:06

it up the print was definitely worse than expected

41:08

they were doing yeah they were expecting

41:11

a point eight percent it was my point one last

41:13

month's number was a point six i remember

41:15

us talking about inflation a couple months

41:17

ago saying that we thought they picked

41:20

me or maybe in april or may at the latest

41:22

simply because the voices

41:24

measured on your over your basis and

41:27

where's or no lot much for your com slash to

41:29

remember this conversation yes or the lopping

41:31

effect turned out not to be enough

41:34

and inflation is still rising so we have not

41:36

yet pissed on cp i understand that course

41:39

we have peaked by the going

41:41

to school energy and

41:44

food i mean that's a pretty arbitrary decision

41:46

those are you really important variables

41:48

that matter the ordinary americans

41:50

prefer though we solve this

41:53

problem and from from our point we

41:55

don't know what is gonna be meniscus aside the

41:58

big question now is when doesn't they shouldn't finally

42:01

peak in start going down

42:03

where should be and then how much as

42:06

severe recession do we have to have

42:08

in order for the fed solve this problem i

42:11

feel like things are turning over in real estate

42:13

we talked about that last week the number of homes

42:15

being listed is skyrocketing

42:17

the number of mortgages being originated

42:20

is plummeting while the rate goes

42:22

up so we're going to see mortgage rates probably

42:24

go six seven percent for

42:26

the end of year

42:28

that gonna put a huge cabal the

42:32

hi and real estate is also starting to get hit

42:34

massively the

42:36

number of listings of listings up in the high and

42:38

and the number cells is plummeting so

42:41

that was one of those cards we wanted to see turnover

42:43

and it looks like that's turning over to someone smokes

42:46

or for kitchen is it of we obsess over

42:48

cpr right now because we're all kind of these they'd

42:51

macro want to be traders but i just

42:53

want to remind you could the said it's been pretty clear about

42:55

the say don't focus on c b i the focus

42:57

on something else instead copy city which is

42:59

so

43:00

personal consumption expenditures price

43:02

and yes

43:04

and i don't know what the flow

43:06

through from cpr to pcp i is

43:08

exactly

43:09

the

43:11

that in the broadest measure of goods and

43:13

services which doesn't include food and energy

43:15

though it stands to reason

43:17

that pc he may say elevated for

43:19

a while which made his

43:21

that bad enough of the motivation they need

43:24

to go a hundred to go another hundred

43:26

or maybe go hundred and seventy

43:27

then a seventy five i think that

43:30

david point is right like

43:33

teaming that we've been expecting to see we haven't

43:35

seen it so every month

43:37

it's like oh is coming next month every month

43:39

has been on to something that's us as at some

43:41

point you may just have to say maybe we're

43:44

and like a sustained period for a while

43:46

and i have to believe it's going up before i believe it's going

43:48

to stay stable a good well we did see

43:50

energy go down housing we are seeing

43:52

now are starting to contract the number

43:55

of a price cuts has

43:57

been surgery according to redfin so i

43:59

think we're starting [unk] the lay offs obviously happened

44:01

two months ago so don't we things that

44:03

were starting to see that headwinds and then we were

44:05

talking to a buddy of ours who's begun

44:07

the airline space

44:09

he said god the and i think you are pointing

44:11

out the statistic that heathrow is now capping

44:13

the number of

44:15

people can rely but you've been or israeli so

44:18

overloaded with with traffic of

44:20

passengers the

44:22

today came out and said we are capping the number

44:24

of passengers to one hundred thousand a day

44:27

there more

44:28

this is after the cost of

44:30

those flights was skyrocketing you

44:32

know six seven thousand dollars a really good

44:35

sacks i really was to go back to sack

44:37

said before he did this the

44:39

nuggets for me of this entire summer

44:41

was what he said about

44:43

his take away from the code two conference right

44:45

just remind people you know that the

44:47

person said something to the effect of well

44:50

not all these other people will be saving money and

44:52

cutting jobs i intend to hire and new

44:54

know nothing has changed from and

44:57

the comment that i made in our group chat is or

45:00

maybe that's the psychology of everybody

45:02

it's like to determine he'll the gutters that yeah

45:04

just disagree clear what what kotor

45:06

did as a date polled all

45:08

the founders in the audience the poll results

45:10

show that on the one hand ever in the audience and of

45:12

so that we are headed for a big downturn and

45:15

economic conditions and fundraiser we must offer

45:17

on the other hand all the founders or two

45:19

thirds i'm said they were gonna use

45:21

this downturn to accelerate or business supposed

45:24

to caught my want to one conversation of the various founders

45:26

basically are in line with that

45:28

which is it's all not meet you

45:30

know i know everybody else is can

45:32

be impacted is go after caught by

45:35

i'm going to be the one exception it will be

45:37

exceptions absolutely but everybody

45:39

can be the exception so i never

45:41

knew what i'm saying i'm going to still by my car

45:43

i'm still going on my summer vacation everybody else

45:45

has to make that's why doesn't matter what they say

45:47

consumers are behaving that way you know

45:49

american airlines

45:51

basically put out what they were they thought they

45:53

were going to be their stock was up ten percent you

45:55

know heathrow says we have too much traffic we're going

45:57

to capital one hundred k there was an article

45:59

about

45:59

know you know us home prices and

46:02

rents and there were these two

46:04

housing companies in the wall street journal that were profiled

46:07

and both of them serve middle income neighborhoods in

46:09

houston and these other places they're like we've

46:11

never done better business

46:13

and you know there are fewer and fewer people buying

46:15

homes because a mortgage rates the all want to read we

46:18

in our complete have we have complete ball control

46:22

we're we're is the stopping and the slowing

46:24

down of spending it just may be reflexively

46:26

this thing where everybody feels like to

46:28

be you know to have the polite dinner conversation

46:30

they have to talk about how they're pulling back it

46:33

doesn't seem like anybody's pulling austerity

46:36

measures have not yet yeah well i think

46:38

i think they are in the process of working but it takes

46:40

a while to me when i was say is like we are one

46:42

hundred percent gonna solve disinflation

46:45

problem why do i say that because

46:48

bubbles are fully within the hour the feather duster

46:50

raise interest rates high enough mobile

46:54

prove that in the early nineteen eighties

46:56

here to raise interest rates as high as twenty

46:58

percent but he crossed the

47:01

inflation ickes seventies but that's what it taught

47:03

so i've no doubt that the said can stop

47:05

inflation i think the question is how much

47:07

plane or the after inflict how high

47:10

do rates have to go and how long

47:12

do we lived through this sort of stagflationary

47:14

period in dot the unsettling

47:16

thing is we're just doesn't seem like were anywhere near

47:19

the end of this yet i wrote this i

47:21

wrote this last week and a little note but some

47:23

this is why as you look at the tail or a again

47:26

you know people and abandoned the tail or a that's not what

47:28

it used to be i guess but you know it's still pretty

47:31

directional reactor at which is what

47:33

did the true equilibrium interest

47:35

rate

47:36

that allows us to basically manage to meet

47:38

supply and demand together so that we have a com

47:40

stable economy that

47:43

that stable equilibrium

47:45

rate is approaching five percent

47:49

you know our target the

47:51

the collective wisdom of the to of the market

47:54

leave that three percent is enough to get the job

47:57

we're right now at one point five to

47:59

one point

47:59

seven five so if

48:02

there's any number between three

48:04

and five that is the true price

48:08

we have a lot of work to do

48:11

the get

48:13

he was real your point because the the tenured

48:15

t bill has been kind of floating around

48:17

three percent though that is the long

48:19

term expectation the

48:21

interest rate that's required tags for as normal

48:24

inflation by what if it's

48:26

four percent it's five percent if that ends

48:29

up being the case if you use downside

48:31

to parse the stock market

48:33

how would you define ten

48:35

percent pullback twenty percent pulled back from here while

48:38

you have a bunch of things that we we talked about this

48:40

other issue before as well which is if

48:42

you believe the stock market is fairly valued

48:44

you have to believe that prices are right

48:47

that be burnings or right right sook as a

48:49

it's attack to leave it all boils down to the per price

48:51

earnings ratio the snp five hundred

48:53

and

48:55

i'm going to still maintain that the he

48:57

is wrong

48:58

earnings around for most of these companies

49:00

so let let y

49:02

one is that when these companies start

49:05

to report their quarterly earnings starting

49:07

in the next few days

49:09

the year over year comparison is going

49:11

to be to the numbers that they posted

49:14

in to to of twenty twenty one

49:16

which by all accounts was a blowout number

49:19

why because the number before that was

49:21

twenty twenty what services was the right

49:24

so you have these incredibly

49:26

tough hot in terms of

49:28

growth percentages that you have to reach which

49:30

i don't think are achievable

49:32

that

49:34

everybody's costs of making

49:36

and selling things is going up with stands

49:38

to reason that unless you raise prices quickly

49:40

enough your profits will go down

49:43

third if you actually do business outside

49:45

of the united states the us dollar has rallied

49:47

so much that you actually

49:49

have lessons on that you're making these other

49:51

countries when you convert them and bring them back to the united

49:53

states now most people look through that

49:55

last issue the point is if

49:57

you add this all up there is a reason

49:59

the probability that the

50:02

all be he's are wrong

50:04

in which case we have to

50:06

reassess with the right he should be

50:08

in which case what is the right peace yes

50:10

and earnings are a function of what you spend a what

50:12

you make so that's why we see so many

50:15

companies to in laos cutting people a

50:17

microsoft google everybody is now

50:20

putting people on a node actor

50:22

therefore i'm they're i'm they're they're white

50:24

collar labor but they're hiring you know blue

50:26

collar labor faster and so you know

50:28

we're actually going to see it down to can productivity

50:31

right you're replacing a person that you

50:33

know may sit down at a desk and use a computer

50:35

eight to ten hours a day to do something but

50:37

you are hiring a lot of people that you

50:39

know may get paid by the hour or make it pay to you

50:41

know fixed salary if you do the right kind of

50:43

work but a that

50:46

qualifies as as more contractual blue

50:48

collar labor

50:49

the difference in that is a productivity difference ultimately

50:52

and just everybody knows pete for p

50:54

his price earning ratios overtime here's

50:56

a quick chart for you currently this

50:59

is where the snp five hundred

51:01

we are currently twenty

51:04

or south and

51:06

we have twice in our lifetime kind

51:08

of hit that's in a thirteen fourteen fifteen

51:11

level so we could have a twenty five

51:13

percent correction from here in the stock market

51:16

if you look at the high

51:19

our recent high in december

51:22

twenty twenty were a thirty eight price earnings

51:24

ratio some we've fallen

51:26

from thirty eight down to twenty

51:29

you know almost in half and we

51:31

could so good and twenty five percent from

51:33

here in that would

51:35

ugly not even set a new record that would just

51:38

the last two crises we had the thing

51:40

that system that the thing that i think will work

51:42

against this happening jason so yeah you're right

51:44

though

51:45

maybe it goes to three thousand or thirty two hundred

51:48

what if you look again

51:50

today you know and what what i mean by like

51:52

the market has roughly seeking the sauce like the size

51:54

of the markets right now as we as we talk

51:56

are

51:57

they are essentially down have a point

51:59

you know the the as appears down

52:02

no twelve points

52:04

it means that they're looking for

52:06

any and all reasons the

52:08

say this is a solved problem move

52:10

on nothing to see now

52:13

that is a psychological reaction those

52:16

the that if you actually i i called a friend today

52:18

and i said where the flows then

52:20

he said you know retail right now is

52:22

where all the flows are meaning it's retail

52:25

that buying their in the thirty or thirty

52:27

fifth percentile of where they normally by

52:29

which is a pretty healthy signal

52:31

the explain what you mean

52:33

my hope the way the market most basically

52:35

is your buyers and sellers and

52:38

me know to to make it really really simple you

52:40

have hedge funds as one

52:42

class a buyer you are you

52:44

at each yes but then

52:46

they're not really daisy i defines yeah yeah but

52:48

they have six strategies and so you know their hedging

52:51

their moving but whatever

52:52

then you have written

52:53

okay so it's retail and hatch those are the

52:56

two main pockets of of where the flows

52:58

come into the stock market from and

53:01

you can get a real sense of what's happening

53:03

what the psychology of the market is if

53:06

you see what those closer

53:08

right now what we see is a

53:10

hedge funds are largely on the sidelines

53:13

they needs is they are they've

53:16

been so battered and bruised in some ways

53:18

i think they're licking their wounds there

53:20

must be waiting there they do not

53:22

find a compelling reason to buy

53:25

right but they have what i at some point

53:27

rights from office is their business know

53:29

about it didn't get mine other opportunities

53:32

are at their businesses to make money relative

53:34

to their index sense of their index gets towards

53:36

they doing nothing makes him look like jesus

53:39

the so they don't necessarily have to buy at any

53:42

point they just need to make money as mbs

53:45

right now we're in a situation where the markets

53:47

are looking for a direction

53:49

retail seems to think that direction serbia

53:52

hedge funds don't have an opinion are

53:54

saying we're just gonna wait this thing out okay

53:57

meanwhile the data the had that

53:59

is

53:59

the

54:00

and i think that's that's attention we have right

54:03

now the stock market is the

54:05

psychological desires for this thing to

54:07

be over meaning i think

54:09

people want to here inflation

54:11

is done we're starting the recession

54:14

there were three or four quarters will be out here's

54:16

a steady cd interest rates let's go attack people

54:18

want to accept the reality freiburg does that

54:20

mean that were bouncing along the bottom for the next

54:23

year and the misses the time or the

54:25

opportunity

54:26

the buyer want to give financial advice but what

54:28

are your thoughts

54:29

hydrant and retailer kind of waiting in the way

54:31

i'm the me as the stock market is that a bottom they

54:34

are we bouncing along the bottom yes or

54:36

what would you how would you describe the next year if

54:39

he were to look at what do you think i'll tell you guys

54:41

some stories i went to a conference

54:43

in march

54:45

with a lot of fund

54:47

managers probably managers several trillion

54:49

dollars in total

54:51

people were like in shock and awe at

54:53

that conference because they had taken such significant

54:56

write downs and they were still getting written

54:58

down so all their investments were off

55:00

they were forty percent in the p they

55:02

were forced to now things are collapsing no

55:05

one was doing anything they were all sit on the

55:07

sidelines hanging out waiting i

55:10

want to a conference last we add to the tone

55:12

a misdemeanor was default morals

55:15

last week i went to a conference with a lot of

55:17

managers there probably managing

55:19

trillions of dollars across the pool

55:21

than

55:23

people were just kinda b had accepted this

55:25

new reality and they were kind of willing

55:28

to look at new things and you

55:30

know they were no longer engaged in trying to shore

55:32

up to their portfolio and lot

55:34

of the stuff we talk about which i think tactical

55:36

on the ground how do we deal with our businesses and

55:38

our portfolios investments that we actively

55:41

work with

55:42

the private market

55:43

they were much more interested in kind of starting to explore

55:46

and think about new thanks and i hadn't seen

55:48

that three months ago

55:49

that might have a positive sign a market

55:51

participant point of here i

55:53

think that folks are kind of college accepted

55:56

a new normal an inflationary normal

55:58

a high bar activity i've

56:01

normal ah you know a normal

56:03

of uncertainty a normal of kind of recessive

56:06

and , people have started to kind of internalized

56:09

that new normal i think they're now starting

56:11

to say okay what's in my accent plan b

56:14

and that action plan is i've got trillions

56:16

of dollars in capital city on the sidelines what

56:18

should i start to do with it

56:19

though you might might very very

56:22

very anecdotal experience

56:24

has been that significant market

56:26

participants i think are going to start to park their

56:28

head up this corner the answer to think

56:30

about doing you face what that translates

56:33

into in terms of you know stock price

56:35

movements and indices i don't know i've always

56:37

said that there's going to be a huge variation in our

56:39

times during the school this year

56:42

and some industries some sectors some

56:45

hide the businesses will outperform others

56:47

and so i don't want to create generalize statements about

56:49

indices but i do think that's capital

56:51

activity is gonna start to come back with corner

56:54

where people just have to think about what to do rather than

56:56

pull everything out because of the massive shift has

56:58

happened in the past several quarters

57:00

that very you as a market participants

57:03

thinking you're looking at series

57:05

days maybe doing some

57:07

opportunistic a flat rounds

57:09

are you looking at

57:11

the start of market midstage market

57:13

and saying hey this is an opportunity maybe i

57:15

should start looking to put some money to

57:17

work in the next six to twelve months or

57:20

are you were so i'm busting you're selling

57:22

my first year as a marker participate you're investing

57:24

whatever nothing by we see that

57:26

the piece of the over here slowed way down because

57:28

founders know that valuations have gone down

57:31

the summer is a environments tougher so plosser

57:33

there is every nine months now they know

57:35

this might be raising at once for two years though

57:38

the pace as slowed way down that's

57:40

a good thing in is

57:42

healthy and more itself area some more

57:44

normalized the

57:46

last year companies

57:49

i could raise did raise their be a whore chest so

57:51

i think this can be a delay it's stuff we a store

57:53

period we've done a couple of growth deals recently

57:56

i think the fact that tiger and the

57:58

other hand across that's what the fact they pull

58:01

back way back from that

58:03

your markets gives smaller firms like

58:05

us off to growth the also how did

58:07

you make the decision to invest

58:09

in those companies they're both companies have known for long

58:11

time of one or two daughters for a while so you

58:14

know the the opportunity arose to

58:16

invest fans it was way less competitive

58:18

than it would have been since last call opportunistic

58:21

you you near the from you have confidence

58:23

in them and easy money

58:26

we bases on to deals and last

58:28

like four months that what

58:30

was your pace let's say eighteen

58:32

months ago there's off as

58:34

much prefer more the old deals

58:36

happening

58:37

interesting

58:39

if you want to think about tail risk where there is

58:41

some of them that and massively

58:43

shifts the market you know that be indices

58:46

south right make them go negative and everyone

58:48

hold money out of equities are are out of thorns

58:51

further

58:52

there are some of those events brewing

58:54

right we talked about the consumer cry one

58:56

where as we thought maybe taiwan's

58:59

maybe this emerging market

59:01

crisis that crisis that that kind of the emerging

59:04

either like little turtles putting their heads off

59:06

the mean at some out but there's another

59:08

be turtles now you know pacifically

59:11

knew that you know there's still reason

59:13

to be wary whereas men alone a black

59:15

swan event which is the not define

59:17

orange and black swans either julia like the

59:19

significance and own recess

59:22

user node known but significant risks

59:24

right now and if any of them to

59:26

kind of take off

59:28

yeah we're already in a very shaky

59:30

kind of period right now we're trying to manage inflation

59:32

and recession there you know

59:34

businesses are trying to raise capital and

59:36

again this is why a lot of biotech companies are trading

59:38

blow cast because the expectation of they're

59:40

not in be able to raise capital i mean any

59:42

want to go out of business is absolutely

59:44

delighted that are soft boom you

59:47

know you start to see things still so i think that's the

59:49

reason people investors

59:51

portfolio managers are not and i kind of

59:53

rushed back into putting more money

59:56

into equities is just sitting around wins

59:58

his last year the since dissolve

1:00:00

an era before graduating out there are

1:00:02

companies that do not face the risk of ruining just

1:00:04

are sitting on so much cash they have so much revenue

1:00:06

that there's no chance of that he i've always said it doesn't

1:00:09

matter if you find a great business and

1:00:11

you believe in that business over the very long

1:00:13

run you don't need to worry about

1:00:15

timing them as it you put money

1:00:17

in that business long as you get a for evaluation

1:00:20

for it today relative to what it should be priced at

1:00:22

a somewhat marches are telling y twenty p

1:00:24

would be more than fair has anybody who knows

1:00:26

but like whatever that and whatever that is but if you find a great

1:00:29

business that you think's gonna compounds value

1:00:31

for you over the very long

1:00:33

run markets opened a man

1:00:35

the long run you mean a decade

1:00:37

call it a decade and you know sites and business

1:00:39

and he's invested in either side companies

1:00:41

that i don't think they're pointing to go public next year

1:00:44

he's making on investment in a business that he considered

1:00:46

to be a great business the can count on value not

1:00:49

not hometown valuation the

1:00:51

compound business value meaning

1:00:53

they can do something more valuable next year

1:00:55

than they were doing this year and continue to accrue

1:00:58

an advantage in their business that allows

1:01:00

them to accumulate earnings overtime or tonight

1:01:02

revenue that ultimately translates into earnings overtime

1:01:04

and are many businesses republic that that operate

1:01:07

like that that regardless of any of these turtles

1:01:09

popping their head out those businesses will perform

1:01:11

well over the next decade and i think you

1:01:14

know that's always a great place to invest service

1:01:16

and we basically went from d day saving

1:01:18

private ryan and seen you know

1:01:20

and the first quarter to now people are accepted

1:01:23

were more time and we're not shell shocked and

1:01:25

from people are looking for opportunities

1:01:27

jamal be found an opportunity maybe to talk about the

1:01:29

deal he did this

1:01:32

you know i didn't agree with free burke i mean you find these

1:01:34

businesses that you like and if they appeal to you and

1:01:36

you do your work that's the most important

1:01:39

can be afraid to write a check

1:01:41

the new stopper their to say define what you

1:01:43

mean by do the work because everybody here to say

1:01:46

that what does that mean for an investor

1:01:48

for somebody like yourself what is doing the work me he

1:01:50

really depends on the sector so for example one

1:01:52

you know one

1:01:54

when we were when

1:01:56

i was trying to underwrite open door when

1:01:58

i really wanted to understand was

1:02:00

you know what to take rates look like in

1:02:02

all these various markets will how do i think

1:02:04

take weights will evolve hear how to value added

1:02:06

services work was and a margins can use

1:02:08

saints what does the sensitivity

1:02:10

of different parts of the real estate economy

1:02:13

to interest rates in oh that's an example

1:02:15

of work when i was underwriting so five

1:02:18

you know what you're trying to understand is you

1:02:20

know how to banks generates adding net increase

1:02:23

income you know name

1:02:24

how does that change over time how does bank

1:02:26

charters change that i'm

1:02:29

in ohio last rates change in in

1:02:31

the times

1:02:33

the economic expansion vs

1:02:35

recessions how do you price all of that into a fair

1:02:37

share value of a business

1:02:39

this a lot of really

1:02:41

detailed diligence to understand

1:02:44

all the facets or as many of the facets

1:02:46

as possible of a business that allied have a clear

1:02:49

hi sense of what's possible then there

1:02:51

are others

1:02:52

which your pure technology bats

1:02:55

where you try to understand

1:02:57

either biology the

1:03:00

technology so in the case of a deal that i did

1:03:03

in out today or this past week myself

1:03:07

much a family offices around the world

1:03:11

led by a great chairman pablo like

1:03:13

reddit who started a phenomenal business called

1:03:15

royalty farmer which is public i

1:03:17

was when the bunch of folks we put

1:03:19

in about half a billion dollars to

1:03:23

the help advance into you know clinical

1:03:27

trials this business that's trying to

1:03:29

provide a solution to chronic kidney disease

1:03:31

so in that example of us lot

1:03:33

of scientific diligence on

1:03:36

what are the existing solutions how did

1:03:38

they work what is the mechanism of action inside

1:03:40

the body how

1:03:42

is this the same or different what

1:03:44

, the early data say how

1:03:47

are the clinical trials structured

1:03:49

and then you come to an answer me this

1:03:51

case this decided that was worth taking and

1:03:53

the like reynosa name of the company and

1:03:56

what they do the company called probe sydney

1:03:58

and basically the idea

1:04:00

that it uses your own body to

1:04:02

help heal your kidneys if you are on the verge

1:04:04

of chronic kidney disease or you are getting dialysis

1:04:07

etc essentially

1:04:09

how much is it removes cells

1:04:11

from your body

1:04:12

from your kidney actually and

1:04:15

then it does

1:04:16

basically put it into centrifuge does some specific

1:04:19

things to it grows and amplifies certain

1:04:21

cell lines from your kidney and and rejects

1:04:23

those back into kidney and hi

1:04:26

to improve what's called your it easier

1:04:28

for which is your estimated claw

1:04:30

miller filtration rate which is essentially

1:04:34

the number that weaken used to estimate

1:04:36

how efficient your kidneys or and essentially when

1:04:38

you are you know what type two diabetic

1:04:41

or you have chronic kidney disease or kidney failure

1:04:43

or you're on dialysis it's because that

1:04:45

filtration capability has sailed

1:04:48

so all these toxins are getting pushed back into

1:04:51

by

1:04:53

oh yeah we took a minnow half billion dollar

1:04:56

shot every one hundred and twenty five million dollar check i

1:04:58

hope that works at a message freiburg

1:05:00

we saw some satellite images this week

1:05:03

biden

1:05:03

if announced them they looked pretty trippy

1:05:06

explain to us what do you

1:05:08

downstream effect of what

1:05:10

is i think the them most

1:05:12

clear picture were seeing

1:05:14

the

1:05:15

the cosmos ever created and

1:05:17

what i could actually do for humanity

1:05:19

with one another to do with fight and

1:05:21

fat com of into a sword

1:05:24

fighting showed it on monday isis the subtle and

1:05:26

he made and heat daily specifically had

1:05:28

him sherry which i think

1:05:30

maybe they were looking for a many when or something good

1:05:32

for him i'm has he has nothing to

1:05:34

do with this program i'm i i don't

1:05:36

mean i just mean that like scientists and

1:05:38

engineers their work on this for many are and a yup

1:05:40

deserve all the frigging credit

1:05:42

the james webb telescope is a space

1:05:44

telescope just like the hobbles right never

1:05:46

the hubble space telescope and this is a massive

1:05:48

improvement over the hero to

1:05:51

imagine you're you're in a boat and you're trying to look

1:05:53

at the bottom of the ocean you take a bunch of innocuous pair

1:05:55

of binoculars you look into the ocean inside

1:05:57

see what's at the bottom of the are some how hard that would

1:05:59

be right there's all this murky stuff in the water

1:06:02

to be really hard to see it the that

1:06:04

the reason that we create a space telescope is

1:06:06

a that the same problem that we would have looking

1:06:08

at a telescope through the earth's atmosphere

1:06:10

doesn't impact the light coming into the telescope

1:06:13

and so there's so much stuff in the atmosphere

1:06:15

writers miles of pop molecules

1:06:17

in durban south moving around so my

1:06:20

putting a telescope in space we get rid of all

1:06:22

that murkiness and now we can really capture

1:06:24

the line coming from far far

1:06:26

away concentrate that like and

1:06:28

to really sensitive photo detectors

1:06:31

these are photo detectors that operates as

1:06:33

merely the the coldest

1:06:36

point in the universe negative two hundred and sixty

1:06:38

three calvin and

1:06:40

and that photo detector makes it extremely sensitive

1:06:43

and using a twenty foot wide mirror

1:06:45

we can capture all the life has come again

1:06:48

concentrate on to the photo detector and

1:06:50

and and breathe that white arm and

1:06:52

so why is this important why is this interesting

1:06:55

will people get really excited by and flip

1:06:57

out over the cool imagery that they see these

1:06:59

images is colorful images of galaxies

1:07:02

and start far far away what we're really

1:07:04

doing is we're not as looking far away we're looking

1:07:06

back in time so these are

1:07:08

these images come to us from galaxy

1:07:11

that a four point six billion light years away

1:07:13

there would have four point six billion years for

1:07:15

that lights are reach our planet and we're

1:07:17

actually seeing what happened in the earlier part

1:07:20

of the universe and we're seeing how these are

1:07:22

galaxies

1:07:23

for and how they're moving how to

1:07:25

interact with one another have a plan scientists interact

1:07:27

with one another

1:07:28

what a lot of people miss as i think the most important

1:07:30

in to highlight as an astrophysicist

1:07:33

when you're looking for new telescopes and adamant

1:07:35

telescope state are you not looking for imagery like

1:07:37

we looked at today that's really good to sell the

1:07:39

stores in defining to do a press conference really

1:07:42

looking at affected us out of better

1:07:44

grass is are you know as

1:07:46

it showed for every wavelength of light across

1:07:48

some spectrum what the intensity as

1:07:51

of that that amount of like that that wavelength of light

1:07:53

and particularly the james

1:07:55

webb telescope has incredible

1:07:57

micro center raise and incredible sensitive

1:07:59

that allowed us to go for near infrared infrared

1:08:02

and some visible light and look at that

1:08:04

spectrograph

1:08:05

why that important he did it you can

1:08:07

capture the spectrograph in a very high

1:08:09

resolution way for a son

1:08:11

or for a planet far away he could

1:08:13

tell you very specifically with the movement

1:08:15

is and what the chemical composition

1:08:17

is of that object

1:08:19

from that we can start to do incredible

1:08:21

research and in for very important

1:08:24

things about how planets form

1:08:26

hostile form of how many places like

1:08:28

earth might be out there how things are moving

1:08:30

how much mass or matter there is

1:08:33

in the universe and are two very

1:08:35

very big question questionable

1:08:37

phenomenon in astrophysics right now

1:08:39

one is called dark energy one called dark matter

1:08:42

turns out the majority of matter and universes

1:08:44

undetectable

1:08:45

there also is this really

1:08:47

weird energy forth switching

1:08:50

on everything in the universe causing

1:08:52

universe to accelerate it's expansion

1:08:55

so the universe is expanding everything's moving away

1:08:57

from itself but it's not it's expanding and slowing

1:08:59

down it's expanding and speeding up you're

1:09:01

having this sort of instruments in space that

1:09:03

allows us to capture in a very high resolution

1:09:06

way using spectroscopy another

1:09:08

tool that astrophysicists is and better

1:09:10

map out how this is happening in different parts

1:09:12

of the universe starts to give us a better

1:09:15

says and allows us to kind

1:09:17

of enquirer and start to develop

1:09:19

theory the run what's really going on and i want

1:09:21

to say one more thing could put a lot of people think that

1:09:23

this stuff is so esoteric and it's like super

1:09:25

into say why we couldn't handle a northerner

1:09:28

most applied engineering

1:09:30

and technology that we've developed as a species

1:09:33

started out initially of pure research

1:09:35

with no freaking clue where was going to go to imaging

1:09:39

dna penicillin electronics

1:09:42

samurai machines so many of these

1:09:44

capabilities evolved from scientists to

1:09:46

query in the universe and asking questions

1:09:49

and gathering data and all of a suddenly came

1:09:51

across some things developed a series

1:09:53

built an application of that theory and a

1:09:55

technology emerged that saints

1:09:57

the course of our history as a species

1:10:00

that's the reason to do pure research

1:10:02

and that's the reason it's so important

1:10:04

for us to put ten billion dollars into a program

1:10:06

like this we're going to discover amazing

1:10:08

things with this tool and it will

1:10:11

ultimately hopefully yields advances

1:10:13

for humankind that we cannot even contemplate tonight

1:10:15

so be energy right i mean understanding

1:10:17

dark matter and energy totally

1:10:20

enemy has changed everything and energy read

1:10:22

about it one day there might be a capability

1:10:24

where we say there's say new class of matter and

1:10:26

matter new understanding of energy that weekend

1:10:28

and apply in some form of physics on earth

1:10:31

that we could do something interesting with and we have to be

1:10:33

able to query and understand the university that

1:10:36

we measure their way that we measured the matter

1:10:38

from your a this is yours

1:10:40

got access and i mean the hubble telescope

1:10:43

keep up with correct me if i'm around here is

1:10:45

my alma mater say says

1:10:48

how much dark matter incinerators jamaat

1:10:50

incinerators lot you're full of it from

1:10:53

what we now know the emmy to hobble told us

1:10:55

the rate of expansion of the universe

1:10:57

and it also tells us the age of the universe and we found

1:10:59

all this other planets told to free

1:11:01

birds point about you know looking

1:11:03

you know through that through the muddy water

1:11:06

there's a great visualization on the last

1:11:08

you have hop on the right you don't have were

1:11:10

beautiful said if you slide as you can just see like

1:11:13

just how crystal clear and these images are

1:11:15

and from my understanding we found

1:11:17

some number of universes

1:11:20

already that we didn't know just from the first images

1:11:22

by the way i wanted to give everyone a heads up this imagery

1:11:24

looks beautiful and i'm in up isn't that a big

1:11:27

one i'll put it behind my frigging death care because i think

1:11:29

it's so that i think after photography is one of my

1:11:31

that of all time favorite forms

1:11:34

of arts by com remember

1:11:36

this is imagery that was actually have sheriff

1:11:38

in near infrared an infrared spectrum

1:11:41

and then he converted it's a visible light to make it

1:11:43

look cool so remember that these images

1:11:45

you know that that these clouds you're actually there

1:11:47

don't actually look at like that fuller yard

1:11:50

and it's a very cool way to visualize the

1:11:52

density and of this know that will change and where

1:11:54

does this has enough for you in terms of

1:11:57

your excitement between

1:11:59

the new season

1:11:59

doctor who and a foundation

1:12:02

series if you let me let me just give you got

1:12:04

one more kind of

1:12:06

really everything is if you started our son

1:12:08

and you will get a sort of super bright if

1:12:11

you go at the speed of light for four minutes you reach

1:12:13

the earth or couple minutes to reach the earth looks our

1:12:15

six minutes or some sort of it it's look back and

1:12:17

now the some looks like it doesn't are dot if

1:12:19

you go for another couple minutes you

1:12:22

end up looking back from saturn and the sun starts

1:12:24

to look like a star i me

1:12:26

about how how damages now

1:12:28

imagine continuing to go the speed of light

1:12:30

for another hour you look back you'll hardly

1:12:33

be able to differentiate the sun from the rest of the universe

1:12:35

now visa for four point six billion years

1:12:38

then you're shooting away for four point six million years now

1:12:40

low fat how friggin hardwood of the

1:12:42

to see anything that's the technical

1:12:44

capability we just put into space we

1:12:47

built a twenty foot wide mirror

1:12:49

to concentrate the ones the so times

1:12:52

that travels a four point six billion years

1:12:54

loss all of their dead city lock all of that

1:12:56

you're completely devout completely diffuse

1:12:59

the capturing a few of them

1:13:01

one that concentrated way onto a detector

1:13:03

for minutes at a time and generate

1:13:06

the village

1:13:07

the profound or perfectly complex

1:13:09

the fifth at agenda

1:13:10

the complexity can ultimately yield other technological

1:13:14

tools that we could use in also says

1:13:16

i'm industry so i just i just

1:13:18

want however i posted a for you guys

1:13:20

are it's an incredible story the basically this

1:13:22

program was riddled with delays and

1:13:25

things that weren't working and and stay

1:13:27

put

1:13:28

quiet very assuming engineer

1:13:30

in charge of it and he completely turned the whole

1:13:32

thing around and

1:13:33

it's one of the most incredible closed what's his name

1:13:36

cmos outta his name is greg

1:13:38

robinson then he turned a

1:13:40

ten billion dollar debacle the

1:13:42

into a groundbreaking scientific mission this

1:13:44

is a quote from the wall street journal that

1:13:46

the quote from the nasa

1:13:49

the head of nasa's science

1:13:51

mission directorate thomas are broken says

1:13:53

it all

1:13:55

there's a huge distance between success and

1:13:57

failure and only a few options

1:13:59

the view from want to the other as he

1:14:02

said

1:14:03

greg robinson work such wonders

1:14:06

that his boss calls him quote the

1:14:08

most effective leader of a mission

1:14:10

i have ever seen in the history of nasa

1:14:12

and

1:14:14

really

1:14:15

this project he had eleven died

1:14:18

showers every brothers and this has been

1:14:20

going on for i guess twenty years now

1:14:22

this process of getting the skelton ten

1:14:25

years of really intense building what would

1:14:27

the next nemo will switch over to politics

1:14:29

were quick second zoe as we wrap up here freiburg

1:14:32

whoa what's the next how

1:14:34

are scope a because obviously

1:14:36

of we've gone hobble to web what

1:14:39

the next one conceivably look like him with

1:14:41

the timeline for that is there another one that's gonna com

1:14:43

and then what would that enable because it does

1:14:45

feel like if we accelerate this

1:14:47

women really get a deep understanding of

1:14:49

the universe it seems

1:14:52

to be accelerating our understanding cry

1:14:54

that are technologies obviously accelerating so

1:14:56

feel like we couldn't you know send another one of these out

1:14:58

next ten years that would dwarf this

1:15:00

one's capable yes or a lot of some

1:15:03

telescopes operate operate wavelengths

1:15:05

and they're meant the tide of proceed different miss

1:15:08

and so you know there have there are some telescopes

1:15:10

in are already operates in all in canada gamma rays

1:15:12

spectra

1:15:14

that really their third we i don't

1:15:16

know if we ever talked about the summer so but one of

1:15:18

the not really interesting areas of inquiries

1:15:21

is on his knees gravitational

1:15:23

waves detectors and there are new

1:15:25

more deaths versions of those system started to come

1:15:27

on my mother not space space telescopes

1:15:30

other and we can talk about that another time

1:15:32

on but they're creating

1:15:34

new methods of inquiries where we're not capturing

1:15:37

so taunts white coming from

1:15:39

faraway were actually capturing

1:15:42

the waves of gravity coming

1:15:44

from interactions of matter around

1:15:46

the universe and it's a new way to kind of observe the universe

1:15:48

know telescopes represent a new class of inquiries

1:15:51

that was just kind of you know discovered a few years ago

1:15:54

and proven out and and now there's there's a lot

1:15:56

more going on into that area ten free bird

1:15:58

you have something you want to give a sound idea

1:15:59

that you guys a photo of a new dog

1:16:02

i adopted last week her name is daisy

1:16:04

how we killed her out from virginia

1:16:07

the the is one of four thousand beagles

1:16:10

that were rescued

1:16:12

from a facility in virginia that was

1:16:14

shut down by the d o j the

1:16:16

facility was investigated by peta

1:16:18

and the humane society and they basically

1:16:21

shuffles facility down buses are in the united

1:16:23

states we only do animal

1:16:25

testing on beatles they're the only dogs that we do animal

1:16:27

testing on because they can put up with

1:16:29

pain and they have a high tolerance and i threshold

1:16:31

for pain it's a really awful fact

1:16:33

we need to change at the united states vs the eighth

1:16:36

does not provide guidance on us and pharma

1:16:38

companies pesticide companies major companies

1:16:40

very often test on diesel the

1:16:43

company on you know that was

1:16:45

operating the spiegel facilities in

1:16:47

virginia was shut down for i'm

1:16:49

you know ethical issues after

1:16:52

facility it

1:16:54

or the humane society or took control

1:16:56

of our the company called and vigo their parent

1:16:58

company is publicly traded i think that the fact

1:17:01

that we test on the beagles in this country awful

1:17:03

we adopted a the other four

1:17:05

thousand and beagles like easy available for adoption

1:17:08

i'll put some length and the show notes here people feel

1:17:10

free to go and grab them i'm sure

1:17:12

that long list is absolutely incredible

1:17:15

i think that it's awful we just on dogs in the country

1:17:18

and i say i urge anyone that has influence

1:17:20

of the of the a to get them to provide better

1:17:22

guidance is is not a lot a required and

1:17:24

they don't provide guidance

1:17:26

and co lot of companies de facto

1:17:28

a d falter testing on t lost when

1:17:30

they really don't need to and said i'm sorry bird let me ask

1:17:32

you the music wasn't earning it's incredible an adult

1:17:34

to the da the help of four thousand that adopted some

1:17:37

how should we do testing

1:17:40

totally i look i think that there's a system

1:17:42

is really important ethical lines here and we can debate

1:17:44

those this is a good nuance conversation

1:17:47

we use mouse models in biology to

1:17:49

explore solution for human disease

1:17:51

we we use primate models right which means

1:17:54

we the primates we use dogs

1:17:56

we use tax we use mammals

1:17:58

com

1:17:59

there it there

1:17:59

okay

1:18:00

obviously not necessary we

1:18:02

don't need to take be goals and poor

1:18:05

tons of kim kardashians me with makeup line

1:18:07

in their eyes to see what happens if not

1:18:09

required by law and it's not about getting

1:18:11

some pharmaceutical drug approved this is in

1:18:13

an area that i have you know i'm not going

1:18:15

to get into the debate on on exploring

1:18:18

and resolving kind of pharmaceutical solutions

1:18:20

and and things that can actually pretty human

1:18:22

disease where i'm particularly sensitive

1:18:24

to is one it's not needed and

1:18:26

when we're taking these animals and just doing awful

1:18:28

things to them saw when there's no law

1:18:30

that requires that we're not putting stuff in our bodies

1:18:33

and this isn't about i'm in of protecting

1:18:35

human it's really about cover your ass

1:18:37

behavior for make of companies and pesticide

1:18:39

company says they don't need to be doing and not

1:18:41

really what i'm addressing three thousand nine hundred

1:18:43

ninety nine beagles to go if

1:18:45

you adopt one of the spiegel send us a photo was

1:18:47

sarah at the end of next week

1:18:49

programmed excellent me say that guys it's really know

1:18:52

either make a good set of room for an and how we

1:18:54

treat

1:18:55

dogs who are connected to humans

1:18:57

in a very special way i think speaks volumes to

1:18:59

us as individuals

1:19:02

that would you like to well

1:19:04

on the by the amish ration talk about twenty twenty two

1:19:06

or give us an update on ukraine i give you the choices

1:19:09

green is my elder abuse this point

1:19:12

you're gonna try

1:19:16

a few questions or canada you're trying to trying

1:19:18

me up here but like but like say is my

1:19:20

point one percent i don't want to beat a dead horse before

1:19:22

i can i read you guys something and you can tell me

1:19:24

there were these and

1:19:27

there's a there's a group called committee

1:19:29

to unleash prosperity

1:19:31

the to researchers stephen moore and john

1:19:33

decker this is in the wall street journal article i personally

1:19:35

good the peers studied the resumes

1:19:38

a sixty eight top executive branch

1:19:40

officials the worksheet the

1:19:42

economy from president biden in treasury secretary

1:19:44

janet yellen to white house special assistance on

1:19:46

economic policy

1:19:49

the average business experience of

1:19:51

biden appointees he's

1:19:53

only two point four years

1:19:55

like

1:19:56

any fresh faced twenty five year old on wall

1:19:58

street has clocked me the private business

1:20:00

hours again i'm reading from the journal

1:20:03

article the most of washington's top

1:20:05

officials

1:20:06

he did you to percent have quote virtually

1:20:08

no business experience and and

1:20:10

we can at home the average donald trump's

1:20:12

cabinet officials had thirteen years of experience

1:20:15

in the private economy the author says what a disaster

1:20:18

wasn't i sixty three percent democrats

1:20:20

want to get rid of biden that i want him to run again

1:20:22

i've never seen a president

1:20:24

ben the affected on been turned

1:20:26

on my his own party so quickly internet

1:20:29

ministries you need to take that ownership of the democratic

1:20:31

party which media has to take it back to the

1:20:33

center and he needs to have a wholesale

1:20:36

replacement cause the team

1:20:39

that he works if on domestic policy

1:20:41

it's not working and remarked that was

1:20:43

his pitch widow back to normal say he was

1:20:45

gonna be a you know more of a centrist

1:20:47

and that's not what we've gotten but of course he

1:20:49

was handed the disastrous economy that trump

1:20:52

created why do you say he was handed a disastrous

1:20:54

economy person because of our cove it and

1:20:56

because of the massive stimulus that we spent

1:20:59

those students i

1:21:01

was like a set up a bit of trouble on a second

1:21:03

be they would be much different if trump is running

1:21:05

that the economy with a setup was there for

1:21:07

probably to spend more money right trump wanna spend more money

1:21:10

that's a really

1:21:12

good question as you have to think too that that's

1:21:14

a really good question let's move on what's the update on ukraine

1:21:16

there's a really of success game day on right now where

1:21:18

the russians are slowing

1:21:20

the flow of gas

1:21:22

the owner of i didn't i spent another

1:21:24

the shutdown nord stream one for

1:21:26

their annual maintenance

1:21:29

ross said supposed to be

1:21:31

back supposed by july twenty first and

1:21:34

so the real question is what happens

1:21:36

question

1:21:37

potent hand checks europe and just

1:21:39

takes an extra day or two to get that thing back

1:21:41

up and going is ernest

1:21:44

it predicts or i think the western allies

1:21:46

skyn a fracture com this winner yet germany

1:21:48

scary be freezing the germans are not going

1:21:50

to take this well when they can put the heat on listen

1:21:53

a foreign policy based on virtue signaling

1:21:55

is one thing when you're economy is

1:21:57

good the and you're

1:21:59

not

1:21:59

read about your energy

1:22:02

security and you can see your

1:22:04

homes is another thing to have a foreign

1:22:06

policy based on virtue signaling when you're economies

1:22:08

and resistance yeah runaway inflation

1:22:11

and you're in the winter and you can

1:22:13

hear a homes you more as change real

1:22:15

quick don't s three or four months

1:22:17

ago that liberal interventionists were triumphant

1:22:20

about this ukraine war two

1:22:22

or three big productions one that ukraine

1:22:24

was gonna

1:22:25

when

1:22:26

look what ukraine was wearing the first couple weeks but now

1:22:28

it looks like russia has one does donbass

1:22:30

region number two they

1:22:33

predicted that we were collapse the russian economy

1:22:35

with all the sanctions the opposite happened

1:22:38

with gloucester own economy anniversary

1:22:40

they predicted this would strengthen the western alliance

1:22:42

that's the only car that as and he

1:22:45

basically turned yeah then i think it will

1:22:47

this this winter i think you're gonna see serious

1:22:50

opposition to the way the by the

1:22:52

most recent has led the was

1:22:54

there

1:22:55

the response i think it's well said that

1:22:57

if germany has the

1:22:59

yeah blinds as sri lanka had you

1:23:02

would see a definite fracturing of how

1:23:04

people look at it just like they slipped last week

1:23:06

and they made natural gas and nukes

1:23:08

ah nuclear power a green energy

1:23:11

so yeah their morals and ethics and

1:23:13

virtue signaling i go as far as

1:23:16

their wallets and their heat and meals

1:23:18

go as we all know this is a bit another amazing episode

1:23:21

of the all and podcasts are the baron of

1:23:23

beagles the deep end

1:23:27

, rain man yeah it's definitely by this

1:23:29

fall out there is no chance for any

1:23:31

of us to pass friburgo the popularity

1:23:33

to ski to seal the deal is fucking shit

1:23:36

shit of three du sable

1:23:38

well not three times in a bring

1:23:40

a dollars and when i say i myself have

1:23:42

myself prepared ,

1:23:45

sesame oil out of the saddle

1:23:47

secure your part as the most hated

1:23:49

best the see you all next time

1:23:52

on episode eighty all next luck

1:23:54

eighty eight five of the all and parker five

1:23:56

i love your bases father

1:24:07

the open source

1:24:19

i

1:24:23

mean you know is now

1:24:28

, and

1:24:31

and one users had

1:24:34

like sexual tension and