Here’s a list of things I updated on after working on the scenario.

Some of these are discussed in more detail in the supplements, including the compute forecast, timelines forecast, takeoff forecast, AI goals forecast, and security forecast. I’m highlighting these because it seems like a lot of people missed their existence, and they’re what transforms the scenario from cool story to research-backed debate contribution.

These are my opinions only, and not necessarily endorsed by the rest of the team.

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-takeaways-from-ai-2027