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IDK. Hey everyone, Jack

0:34

here. Just want to let you know that there

0:36

will not be an episode next week but there

0:38

will be one two weeks from now. Hopefully...

0:41

sorry. But anyway, enjoy

0:44

this week's episode. Penises.

0:51

Vaginas. If

0:53

you turn them inside out would they become the other

0:55

one? Something to

0:57

think about. You might

0:59

find out... Something to

1:02

think about. I

1:04

don't know about that. Virginia

1:06

Chris. Hello everyone. How are you? This is

1:08

your hour of the week where you get

1:10

to listen to me talk about things. I'm

1:12

here with Jack and I'm here with

1:14

Forrest and we've had a big week. Tell us

1:17

everyone... tell your news. I had

1:19

a date. I didn't know that.

1:21

I had another talk about it so I thought I put

1:23

Jack in his place and Jack would just go, I bought

1:25

a sandwich. No, you had a date. I did buy a

1:27

sandwich too. Date went

1:30

great the second Wednesday night. Alright. Well, I'm

1:32

not gonna ask anymore. I'll wait until she

1:34

dumps you like the rest of them and

1:36

then we'll chat. Yep. See you tomorrow. Have

1:40

you had a date? Me? Yeah.

1:46

Not recently, no. I always

1:48

liked when Americans say things like

1:50

this. Not since the Reagan administration.

1:53

Oh. Does

1:55

like any administration or just... Well,

1:57

when I was a kid that would be like the old thing

1:59

that like... late night shows with how you go, hey,

2:01

hey, hey, fuck it. We

2:04

haven't seen anything like this since the Reagan.

2:06

Last time I got my dick sucked was

2:08

the Reagan administration. Last time I won the

2:10

Reagan administration, right? That's so

2:12

long ago now. I

2:14

think people say since the Bush, since

2:16

the second Bush administration. Yeah. That's

2:19

the new Reagan administration. I'm gonna start saying let me

2:21

stand up. Yeah, my wife, she

2:23

hasn't heard. She didn't give me a hand

2:25

job since Bush was in office. Where's

2:28

Bush? W. If

2:31

we go back to your wife, it's only 33. Yeah. Yeah.

2:35

We can't go too far back. It

2:39

gets various. Can

2:41

you even go back to a W? What

2:43

years were that? Well, you got

2:45

12. Look,

2:47

you didn't even know her then. Yeah. 16

2:50

years. I'll be honest, me and my wife

2:52

started dating while Trump was in office. So.

2:56

Yeah, I don't think you can go back to W. I

2:59

think that would be bad. You'll

3:02

find something to use that for. Obama would just

3:04

scrape in there. Obama, second

3:07

turn! That's

3:10

how long it's been. Follow

3:16

us on Instagram, IDCAT

3:18

Podcast, and for

3:20

all sorts of fun clips. Yeah.

3:23

I think that one might make it. Who knows? What

3:26

do you mean? It was fun. Oh,

3:28

that one. Oh, that could be a clip. Maybe.

3:32

I'll level it. I've been interacting with people

3:34

more on Instagram there. Sometimes they send messages

3:36

to you or me. You know,

3:39

sometimes they don't even know they're talking to me. Or it could

3:41

be Jack or Jack State. Anyone.

3:44

That's right. Anyone. I had,

3:46

so my TV show in Australia,

3:48

the 1% Club, changed time slots

3:51

to a different day, right, just because it just

3:53

changed to a different day. And I

3:55

had some people write to me who

3:58

were contestants in the show who were... quite abusive.

4:01

I know. There you go. People

4:03

think that I, when I host a

4:05

TV show, that I'm back there editing

4:08

and selling the tickets and doing all the

4:10

bits of paperwork. Yeah, mom and pop. I'm

4:13

going to tell you something. When you see

4:15

me on TV, that's literally everything

4:17

I've done. The

4:20

bit you see is all of it. Right?

4:23

Because I hear some people going, why

4:25

don't you tell me it was going to change?

4:27

I missed my own episode. Good

4:29

question. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's

4:31

what I do. I change the TV

4:34

schedule and then I call the hundred

4:36

contestants up to make sure that they

4:38

know. I didn't fucking know.

4:41

Contestant 30, I'm screwing you over this week.

4:44

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm not going to tell

4:46

that bitch contestant number 46 so you can

4:48

fuck off at all. I

4:50

hope she misses the episode. I'm

4:53

not sure when this is coming out. I think

4:56

it might be after I've already done my Australia

4:58

shows, but if not, April 24th and 26th with

5:00

the Factory Theater in Sydney, Australia. Go out and

5:02

see Forrest. Melbourne, first through the fourth at the

5:04

Comics Lounge. Definitely, this will come out before then,

5:07

the Melbourne show. Go

5:10

to my website, foreshot.net. There's links on

5:12

there for tickets. Please come out. I

5:14

know there's a lot of people in

5:16

Australia listening to this. Come on out,

5:18

Melbourne, Sydney, Australia. I had to reschedule

5:20

some gigs recently for personal reasons

5:22

and for that I'd like to apologize to the people

5:24

and I'm looking forward to coming out and seeing you as

5:26

soon as possible. Go

5:30

to jimjeffries.com. I think everything should be there.

5:32

For all your scheduling needs. Fixed by on

5:34

there. Fixed in every.com right

5:36

there. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We haven't looked at that

5:38

webpage for a while. We don't know who runs

5:40

it. Yeah, 2020, we don't. Just a fan run.

5:42

Just the Reagan administration. Just the Reagan administration. I'm

5:45

going to start saying that to my 11 year

5:47

old. Well,

5:53

you know, mate, I haven't ridden a bike since

5:55

the Reagan administration. You

5:58

Know, he's that bloke who went well. Like.

6:00

Guy, I hope you censored picking it

6:02

up. Aziz is at school and sixty

6:05

that what are you talking about? New

6:07

I am. I grow The I grew

6:09

up Here is and I had I

6:11

known since the Reagan Administration. a scale.

6:14

Effort in I have. My son has

6:17

sea ice that the best knowledge of

6:19

all music I've ever seen in a

6:21

human being you put any of song

6:23

on and able to sing along with

6:25

i'm like where's the which uses his

6:28

I'd steer him around the place that

6:30

supposed. From you. Our

6:32

brothers about four bags on this dude. Bizarre.

6:34

What's the one that shock to the most?

6:37

recently? P. Was

6:39

singing Creedence Clearwater. Around

6:42

the house while. I've. Got

6:44

a creative glue on of know didn't seem have

6:46

angered at a male. Our

6:48

Radisson Blu as I like what to

6:50

do your thing Apocalypse Now what's going

6:53

on Him His mom I said let

6:55

me try to honor his. his mother

6:57

is I don't know where he says

6:59

dogs on. Like

7:02

Desi we no one knows where these music. Know

7:04

discovered is is on the Sims around on the

7:06

As a mix. He has a mix album that

7:09

he puts on. Where are the Sky put on

7:11

our songs. Good the best The Baggers. Every

7:13

time I put on i carried me com in

7:16

a pool by a petabyte. makes that he spoke

7:18

the will be unlocked or but her this of

7:20

it's what is. How. Did

7:22

you know about that is crazy teaching him

7:24

at his school. but it's it's it's work

7:26

and as good as worth all the money.

7:28

Good. Now. I'm with ophthalmologist

7:31

provide a genuine object as I

7:33

as a visitor. The schools are.

7:36

Raising Rates Erotic Six. And I

7:39

think I do. See

7:42

like this. Obviously this one's for a house

7:44

of not not not into Up Up Up

7:46

Up it's about another house or. Ah,

7:51

that's good job. Now. Let's

7:53

meet our guest! Joshua. dos

7:55

get i joshua now it's

7:57

time to play the zoo

7:59

Yes no, yes no,

8:02

yes no Judging

8:04

of a buy it's cover Well

8:07

Josh was a young man, he lives in

8:09

what seems to be a fairly, that

8:11

section of his house seems to be fairly under

8:13

script Not a lot of information He

8:16

does have a refrigerator though, so is

8:19

it the Cold War? He

8:22

wish, he just watched a whole documentary on that I'm

8:25

ready to go on the Cold War, I can answer everything

8:28

Ok, so is it something to do with the entertainment business

8:30

Josh? Can

8:32

I answer these questions? Yes or no, yes or

8:34

no answers Oh,

8:38

oh no No, is it got

8:40

to do with science? I know everything's got to do with

8:42

science but is it? Yes

8:45

Ok, is it, is it, we do a lot

8:47

of stuff in medicine That'll throw you though, it

8:49

is something to do with science, that's why he

8:51

said yes Is it medical?

8:55

No Is

8:57

it about the environment? No,

9:01

not inherently Not inherently, ok

9:06

Is it about the

9:08

human body? That's

9:10

medicine isn't it, so it can't be that, that's medicine

9:13

No, it can't be that Ok,

9:15

is it, is it, is it science, is it

9:17

about, is it a sport related one? I

9:20

love a sport one, can we do a sport one? Not today We

9:23

have done them but no This

9:27

is something that you might be cynical about Oh, oh, is it

9:31

about the earth being round?

9:36

Ding ding ding I

9:39

know you're a flat earther, oh wow

9:41

Yeah, you know, you know, there's a

9:43

nice little people Cool another episode we

9:45

can do there, nope I

9:47

do know about that Ok,

9:50

so it's something I'm skeptical about

9:52

I think you might be, I

9:54

don't know, it seems like you

9:57

would be It seems like something he'd be skeptical about Yeah

10:00

a certain animal. Nope. What? There's

10:03

some animals that... Okay, think about, um...

10:05

I'm the trust for the animals. Like

10:08

my favorite, one of my favorite shows all time is

10:10

the West Wing. Yes. And

10:12

they would do this a lot in

10:15

that show. Walking and talking. Bingo! Physical

10:17

therapists. Is it walking and talking? Not

10:19

walking and talking. Oh,

10:21

he's doing it all the time. Um,

10:25

vote. Getting closer. I'm

10:27

skeptical about voting. Before voting. Before

10:30

voting we threw rocks at people. This is stony.

10:32

Before people vote, this will happen

10:40

and... Oh, it's the

10:42

election process. The campaigning. Nice,

10:44

sort of. Getting closer. Getting

10:47

closer. It's the voting that doesn't

10:50

matter. Oh, primaries. As

10:53

you wanted to tell you? Sure.

10:55

We're talking about political polling. Ah,

10:58

polling! Yeah. Yeah, I'm skeptical

11:00

about polling. Yeah, that's what I was

11:03

thinking. It's elections before elections. Yeah. Joshua

11:05

Doss has a degree in political science,

11:07

business management, and economics. Josh is a

11:10

political consultant with polling experience at the

11:12

local, state, and federal level of politics.

11:14

He's been studying survey data for

11:16

just shy of a decade and has

11:19

used that knowledge to lead multiple, multi-million

11:21

dollar research projects geared towards understanding what

11:23

voters think about the economy, politicians, elections,

11:26

and more. Currently, he's a senior pollster

11:28

and political consultant at HIT Strategies. He's

11:30

been featured in the New York Times, Washington Post,

11:33

Newsweek Magazine, The Hill, and NBC News. You

11:35

can find him on TikTok at

11:37

AppliedScience11 and

11:39

on Instagram at Josh underscore

11:42

Doss, D-O-S-S 5, where

11:44

he talks about the intersection of politics,

11:46

polling, and economics. Cool. Thanks for being

11:48

here. You prefer Josh or Joshua, I didn't

11:51

even ask you. Either one is

11:53

fine. I usually say I introduce

11:55

myself as Joshua and then people just do whatever

11:57

they have to do. Okay. Well, thanks for being

11:59

here. in here, you want to tell us

12:01

a little bit more about just how you got into this field.

12:05

Yeah. I'm in this major

12:07

in political science. Coming

12:09

out of college, I got my first job with

12:12

the governor of Illinois, not

12:14

particularly in polling, but more in political

12:16

consulting and

12:18

just organizing voters and things of that

12:21

nature. Then I went on the road

12:23

with some presidential candidates and kind of

12:25

fell into some speech writing things and

12:27

a lot of speeches actually

12:30

grabbed their languages from

12:32

polls. So we, I ended up

12:34

kind of naturally going into the polling world. Do

12:37

you like to show the West Wing? I've

12:41

seen some of it. I think it's pretty

12:43

good. Out of the political shows, I think

12:45

it's closest to the accurate

12:47

ones, I would say. What about the Obi-Wan Kenobi

12:49

series and Disney Plus? Did you enjoy that? What

12:51

am I going to do with polling? Oh, I

12:53

thought we were just asking, we were talking about

12:55

shows we enjoyed. America's Funniest Home Videos. Oh, okay.

12:57

All right. I can throw them back. I like

12:59

that one. Still going. It's

13:01

not a throwback. It's still on. It's got Carlton on

13:03

it. To be fair, you're

13:06

the only time you actually watch TV on

13:09

airplanes. You know, I'll watch a channel. And

13:12

I was just watching a channel on an airplane the other day and

13:14

I sat back and I went, funny same videos. I'm high

13:17

as a kite. Let's do it. These

13:19

are funny. There's

13:22

some polling on that actually. I guess there's, people

13:24

vote. People vote. Yeah, people vote. People vote. Yeah.

13:27

All right, Josh, I'm going to ask Jim a

13:30

series of questions about political polling and after he's

13:32

done answering those, you're going to grade them on

13:34

his accuracy, zero through 10. 10 is the best.

13:37

Jackson, to grade them on confidence, I'm going to grade them

13:39

on how hungry I am. And at the end of that,

13:41

we'll tally those scores together. If you get 20 through 30,

13:45

what did you rank your drink? Pole, Poland, Poland.

13:47

Got it. Yeah, it's better to always go the

13:49

polls. I don't think it's Polish

13:51

people. The 11, 11, 20 fireballs, your

13:55

10 stripper pole. Whatever

13:58

category. Poland's a cracking country,

14:01

man. I didn't know it was gonna be. It's

14:03

a banger. I never had it

14:05

on my list. Yeah. And I

14:07

went there. Awesome country. Perogies. Perogies,

14:09

love them. Here's the first question. What's the difference between a

14:11

poll and a survey? A

14:13

survey's from Serbia. No, no.

14:16

Okay. A poll actually, I

14:18

don't know, a survey, a

14:21

survey asks multiple

14:24

questions and a poll sort of narrows

14:26

in on one. Okay. I don't

14:28

think that's wrong. So this is

14:31

the thing about polling, right? This is the thing. Here

14:33

we go. So, I don't

14:35

trust the people who answer the questions

14:38

because I think they're needy folk who

14:40

just wanna, you know. Okay, so if

14:42

you have a TV show, you have

14:44

a TV show, you

14:46

know how they decide whether it rates well with

14:48

the general public. They walk around Universal Studio and

14:50

offer people 50 bucks and say, come

14:53

in. So everyone who's judging a TV program

14:55

needs 50 bucks. I

14:57

did one of those in Vegas. They have the

14:59

CBS experience. You sit and watch a show that's

15:02

never gonna air. I don't think

15:04

they do that for political polling. Don't give you

15:06

money. You get what I'm saying. It's the same

15:08

gobshot at a party who wants their opinion known.

15:10

Okay. Explain the basics of

15:12

how political polling works and why it

15:15

is important to the political landscape. Well,

15:17

I guess it is a necessary thing

15:19

because how political polling works is you

15:21

ask a series of questions and the

15:23

people basically vote with their words and

15:25

say, I do like this. I don't

15:28

like that. I would vote this way.

15:30

I wouldn't vote that way. When you say I would

15:32

vote this way, it means you wouldn't vote the other

15:34

way. So you probably can save yourself a couple of

15:36

questions. Yeah. Right?

15:38

So the polling

15:40

gives the

15:42

politicians some

15:44

information on the general

15:46

public and maybe the general public from

15:48

different races, class

15:51

stature and areas of the country.

15:53

And those polls make you

15:55

go, ah, look, the Latino

15:58

vote is gonna go this way. Or that

16:00

so it gives them a guide on

16:03

where they have to work harder Hmm,

16:05

or maybe where they could stop giving

16:07

a fuck that was one of

16:09

your best manufactured answers ever I think Thank you.

16:11

She might even be right You're

16:14

just making it up as you're going How

16:19

do pollsters select who they are going to poll Not

16:24

not based on your universal experience no Okay

16:27

politically I believe they

16:29

would Well people would have

16:31

to answer a survey to be getting to the next

16:33

section to be a poll because they would want to

16:35

know your age race

16:38

demographic and Location and all that type

16:40

of stuff that and and also things

16:42

like they'd want to know how many

16:44

members in your pay So I think

16:46

probably from the census the census would

16:48

give them a good guide Census on

16:50

who they would want to use to

16:52

poll because in different seats

16:54

and You think you know about

16:56

the census if it were not for the Jim Jeffery show I

16:59

mean, you know, I've been I've been part of

17:01

the census. I've been part of the Australian said

17:04

I've answered censuses before I fill out his sense.

17:06

Yeah, he's filled out sentences for me. How accurate

17:08

are polls? It turns out I'm a bad employer.

17:10

I Write that

17:12

down myself. Allegedly How accurate

17:14

are polls political balls? Well, they're pretty

17:17

accurate. They think the Ukraine's in the

17:19

right. That's another Polish joke

17:22

Why is it in American culture that you make

17:24

the Polish people stupid and everywhere else in the

17:26

world? We make the Irish stupid in jokes. When

17:29

did that happen? I don't know we should do

17:31

an episode on that Yeah Just that and and

17:33

and where do you get it to pollack it

17:35

always sounds so much like I got a Polish

17:37

person and then like It's I

17:40

don't know if it's racist is it right I think it

17:42

is it feels like it doesn't think it is Sit

17:45

well with me when they say pollack. No accurate

17:48

our political polls I

17:51

would believe that political polls for

17:53

the most part Fairly accurate

17:55

because whenever they say the

17:57

polls show this fairly. Yeah

18:00

I'm going to say, what do you want? You want a percentage? I'll

18:03

say, okay, I said they're 85% accurate. Okay.

18:06

I'll say because what happens is when they

18:08

say someone's going to lose here, they normally

18:10

lose there, they're not often wrong.

18:13

I would say they're wrong 15% of the time. So

18:16

I'm going to say 85% is a good number.

18:18

What challenges do pollsters face in reaching an accurate

18:20

prediction of election outcomes and how did they attempt

18:22

to overcome these challenges? Well, I

18:24

would never feel one out or do it. So

18:27

that's a challenge. According to people

18:29

like me who are apathetic, beating

18:32

apathy is a challenge for us all. Can

18:40

you name any historical examples of

18:42

major polling errors or controversies and

18:44

what lessons we learned from them?

18:46

What lessons? It's a

18:48

major polling error or controversy. I'm

18:52

going to say,

18:55

this is a guess so you can mark

18:58

me down on confidence, but I'm going to

19:00

say during the Bush

19:02

Gore election when they had

19:04

the vote in Florida, they got recounted, I

19:07

believe the Democrats thought they were going to

19:09

win that by a bit more, but they

19:11

did not count on the Cubans being upset

19:13

about the child that washed

19:15

up on the beach. Alien? Yeah.

19:18

Did you watch that documentary too? Many years ago. If

19:20

there's a documentary, I've seen it. I

19:23

grew up in Miami and maybe Josh knows

19:25

better, but it's my understanding that the

19:28

Cuban people in

19:30

Miami generally voted Republican anyway, so I don't think

19:32

that really mattered. I know, but I don't think

19:35

they knew with what force they were going to

19:37

do. I believe the Democrats thought

19:39

they had. I'm going to

19:41

say the election between Al and Gore and

19:43

the state of Florida. Bush and Gore, yeah.

19:45

Bush and Gore. Bush and Gore.

19:48

Bush and Gore. George

19:50

and Al, I call him. George and Al makes

19:52

himself look nicer. George and Al makes himself look

19:54

like a couple of old bastards at the pub.

19:57

You go, ahh. Honestly, I'd be fine with either

19:59

of them. I know I was sitting in the

20:01

barbershop fucking talking about sports and then they

20:03

say some questionable things. In

20:05

an era of increasing polarization, how do

20:07

pollsters ensure their questions are unbiased and

20:09

do not favor one political ideology over

20:11

another? How to say that again?

20:15

That was a lot of words. So how, like

20:17

now, things are more polarized. How to... Ah,

20:20

polarized. Polls. Yeah. How

20:22

do pollsters, political pollsters, how

20:25

do they ensure that their questions are

20:27

unbiased and don't favor one political party

20:29

or another or political idea or ideology

20:32

or another? How do they make sure

20:34

that they're unbiased? They start the sentences

20:36

with things like this, imagine if,

20:39

and what do you reckon? And

20:43

they never go... What do you reckon? They never start

20:45

their sentences like this, we

20:47

all know Democrats are the best or

20:50

we all know Democrats are the worst.

20:52

They never start like that. They just

20:54

go, Democrats, what do you

20:56

reckon? That's how it

20:58

goes. Ambiguous phrasing. Ambiguous

21:00

phrasing and not

21:03

making the paper red or blue. What

21:05

is waiting? W,

21:07

E, H, like wait how much you weigh. What

21:10

is waiting is relations to polls.

21:13

It's what any girlfriend of yours does if they want to

21:16

get married. I don't even

21:18

understand that. Waiting. Ah,

21:21

yeah, but this is wait. I got it. That

21:24

would be, that would be, what do you

21:26

mean? Like waiting the poll, would that be

21:28

a sentence? Waiting the poll. It's

21:30

spelled like wait when you weigh yourself on a scale.

21:32

I believe that that would be nudging

21:34

the questions in either direction would

21:36

be weighing it this way or

21:39

weighting it that way so as

21:41

to adjust the poll. Because

21:43

I'm sure there's most, for the most part,

21:46

there's polls that are like really good. But

21:48

then I'm sure that Trump has had some

21:50

polls where he's like, come on,

21:52

those are good. I've checked the

21:54

polls. You know what I mean? He'd have a weighted

21:56

poll for that particular thing. Comos. Um,

21:58

what? You probably heard this. term likely voter

22:01

yeah what is that and how are

22:03

they determined I'm a likely voter I'll

22:05

likely vote that's what I mean right

22:07

but I but if I'm sleepy that

22:09

day I might not but I don't

22:11

want to line up like let's be

22:13

honest the American voting system we have

22:16

mail-in in yeah yeah but who

22:18

knows how to do that I do drop

22:21

it a box was all around yeah Jack

22:23

mailed something for me the other day you

22:25

weren't sure if it left the house you

22:27

vote for him last year I

22:29

mean not with his dick sit there a couple

22:31

years we did one time yeah yeah yeah the

22:34

first time I was allowed to vote Jack helped

22:36

me out fill the form I said what I

22:38

wanted I didn't just go I didn't just go

22:40

I know pink party I didn't just do that

22:42

whatever the is there a pink so you're a

22:44

likely voter well you voted for him I'm I'm

22:46

a like I'm a likely but you think that's

22:49

what that means I like I've got a theory

22:51

in this new election that I don't believe you know

22:53

most people say go out there and vote I don't

22:55

believe anyone should vote I don't I

22:57

don't like either candidate I reckon no one

22:59

votes just them just those two old bastards

23:01

have to go in the fucking booth and give it a

23:03

go why if they can do it properly

23:06

on an iPad without any help they fucking win they get

23:08

to run the free world Wow

23:10

that'd be tough for both them

23:12

what does facetime you'd face you'd

23:14

facetime Biden and he'd hold it

23:16

next to his ear hey good

23:19

to see ya what's

23:21

all that malarkey about Putin what

23:27

what does margin of error mean you've heard that

23:29

and how should this be interpreted by the public

23:32

margin of error is the okay so

23:34

if they say the poll

23:36

says the president's approval rating at the moment

23:39

is I believe it at the moment it's

23:41

something like 38 percent it's like in that

23:43

sort of 30 to 45

23:45

it's quite low at the moment right and

23:47

which is weird because the economy is booming but

23:50

where the economy doesn't matter as much with

23:52

polls as it used to because now we're

23:54

more tribal with our way of doing this

23:56

but anyway I know that because dr. Sanji

23:58

said it on the team watch

24:00

shit man. Anyway so

24:03

if the margin

24:05

of error is I would say 10%

24:07

above and 10% below that's

24:09

the margin of error where the poll might

24:11

be wrong. Okay,

24:14

so how should the public interpret that? When

24:17

they see something, when they say the President's

24:19

approval rating is 45%, the polls say that he

24:21

is going to win the election by a little

24:23

bit because the other guy is even lower than

24:26

him or even higher than him. But

24:30

it's too close to call because the polls aren't

24:32

exact. We have this margin of error. Are

24:35

there any particular demographic groups that are historically

24:38

more difficult to reach in polling and how

24:40

do pollsters address this issue? Wide Australians

24:42

between the age of 40 and 50.

24:45

And I'll tell you why. Tough to

24:47

reach. Tough to reach. No one's reached. There's

24:49

been no reaching. Okay. I must be

24:51

extraordinary tough to reach. You mean in this country? Go

24:54

on my social media. I'm really easy to find. I'm like

24:56

the easiest person to find in this country. I'm

24:58

going to say wide Australian immigrants between 40 and

25:00

50. Final answer. Okay.

25:03

Correct. What are exit polls? I've

25:07

heard that before too, right? Exit

25:10

polls. Exit polls are

25:12

the last polls before the result

25:14

we're going to see. So this

25:17

is the last poll. Everything's the polls leading up. We

25:19

have a poll, we have a poll, we have exit

25:22

polls say this is your final poll. The polls

25:24

are at the door, right? There's no more polls

25:26

going to be here. Okay. There are

25:28

a few more questions. I think that's right, you know. I

25:30

don't know. I actually don't know what exit polls are. I

25:32

hear it every election and I have no clue. Exit polls

25:35

say this is your... Sounds like Josh was laughing. I don't

25:37

know if you're right. Your

25:40

final poll before the decision on

25:42

whatever your polling is about to

25:44

be made. Okay. How do political

25:46

campaigns and organizations use polling data? You already answered

25:48

that, but we'll talk about that when it comes up. What

25:51

role does the media play in reporting

25:53

and interpreting political polling data? They tell

25:55

us. Sure. Without them,

25:57

the information doesn't get to us.

25:59

Yeah. the media for you. What do you

26:01

mean what do they do? Sometimes they

26:03

can run their own poles.

26:07

I've eaten something.

26:10

Sometimes they can run... It's coming back. Yeah, it's

26:12

coming back man. Sometimes, I just

26:14

went and sort of ghostbusters in the cinema,

26:17

I ate a lot of popcorn, that was

26:19

a real buttery burp, that one. Anyway, sometimes,

26:21

what are we talking about? Media,

26:24

the role they play in

26:26

the film. Media, right, what

26:28

media do is, media will

26:30

obviously give us the information.

26:32

They will actually probably help

26:34

to distribute the information

26:37

in the sense that they would get people

26:39

to help pole, but then they also can

26:41

run poles themselves. So who's

26:43

to say what's more official? It's like when you

26:45

have collect the cards. You've got these ones Don

26:47

Russell, Panini or something like that, and then you've

26:49

got some bloke scribbling on a bit of paper,

26:51

his ones aren't worth as much, right? But one

26:53

day they could. One day the Golden Globes could

26:55

be as big as the Oscars if they put

26:57

the effort in. True. I

26:59

don't even know what you're talking about either anymore, so

27:01

I zoned out in the middle

27:04

of it. This is where his confidence score

27:06

is coming from. Last question, what are some

27:08

key differences between political polling in the United

27:10

States and in other countries or regions around

27:13

the world? I believe that in

27:15

the United States that political polling... You've

27:21

lived in two countries, three countries. In

27:23

three countries, I'm thinking back to the

27:25

other countries I've lived in. They don't

27:27

mention the polls as much in the

27:30

other countries, right? They don't talk about

27:32

as much. Also, you can't campaign for

27:34

anywhere near as long as you do

27:36

in America. I don't think anywhere else

27:38

on earth campaigns as long as the

27:40

Americans do. So I believe that America

27:43

with their freedoms would be

27:45

able to

27:53

have as many polls as possible. And I believe

27:56

in other countries, maybe they would

27:58

have... You'd have to have all three. authorized

28:00

poles that are authorized by a governing

28:02

body. That is impartial.

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comm slash promos restrictions apply Josh

30:54

how you doing there? How did Jim doing his

30:56

knowledge of political polling zero through ten ten to

30:59

the best? And

31:01

do it just as a whole

31:03

or yeah question by question. No as a

31:05

whole accuracy. How do you do? There's yeah,

31:07

if you appalled on my answers, what would

31:09

be my approval writing? I'm

31:12

gonna give them a six As

31:16

the president some of those answers were like

31:18

you were obviously joking but you were more

31:20

spot-on I think then you might know All

31:24

right, my pre writing six six, how do

31:27

you doing confidence? Oh nine? Yeah, it's pretty

31:29

high today I'm the confidence I

31:32

drove here. That's 15. I'm I'm pretty hungry.

31:34

I'm trying to lose weight. So I'm trying

31:36

to get that so I'll

31:38

give you a ten on it. Cetera Poland. Hey,

31:41

nice pretty good. You like Poland. You love Poland Oh, and

31:43

I've always said should be the name of a strip club.

31:45

All right, right down the road Right

31:47

down right down the road from Lapland

31:50

Lapland and Poland should go you competing on

31:52

one strip That doesn't make sense from Poland.

31:54

What do you mean Lapland? It's lap dances.

31:56

You know, but Poland the country What's

31:59

Lapland? Lap land is a place.

32:01

Okay. You don't know what lap land is

32:04

What plans a real place? You

32:07

can say that plans the greatest place on

32:09

earth. Okay, I believe a lot. Well. Yeah,

32:11

you do it Let me let

32:13

me let me know I'm doing it. Are you

32:15

talking about Latin Finland? It's in Finland. It's a

32:17

place Lap land Why

32:20

is lap land so famous? It's the

32:22

best place in the world to see yeah Beautiful

32:25

place like land Buildings

32:27

there's igloos and ice saunas and people travel from

32:30

all over the world to see that way and

32:32

you like how I supposed to do This I've

32:34

taken you around the world forest. I've shown you

32:36

beautiful sights First question what's

32:39

the difference between a pole and a survey?

32:42

Jim said a survey asked multiple questions poles narrow

32:44

it down then said some other stuff. Yeah, I

32:46

don't know about Josh Wait, what's the difference between

32:48

a pole in a survey? They

32:51

kind of fit you up here Jim because there's

32:53

really no difference Oh,

32:55

you should be a difference, but now

32:58

really the difference is only actually just in

33:00

how we talk about it More

33:04

you'll see more commercial organizations and media

33:06

use pole Whereas in academic

33:08

spaces they use the word survey there used to

33:10

be a different split as of right now. There's

33:12

really not So

33:14

sorry we allowed to use the word

33:16

pole for Everything now because you

33:18

used to be survey But if you're on

33:21

a TV shows the gossip show and they

33:23

they're on Bravo and they're talking about the

33:25

real housewives And they go

33:27

all surveys are shown that Jenny's not

33:29

popular anymore in their family view. I

33:31

a survey survey says his

33:33

family good work check is Family

33:38

feud should should family

33:40

ship you'd be called family pole Which

33:42

is also a point I've seen I'm

33:48

not calling it family pole Steve

33:53

Harvey would tear the shit out of family

33:55

pole if you get

33:57

deep enough on the internet, maybe there is I

34:01

don't think you need to go too deep. Yeah,

34:03

that's the internet. Yeah, you have

34:05

to scratch the surface of the internet. Hi,

34:09

Google. S-A Family Poll. Explain

34:12

the basics about political polling works and why it is

34:14

important to the political landscape. Jim said it is necessary

34:16

to ask a series of questions. Google, I would vote

34:18

this way, I won't vote that way. Maybe

34:22

a little bit better detail than that. How does political

34:25

polling work? I think I said more than that. Yeah, I

34:27

know. I can't say everything. I

34:29

only got an hour. Yeah,

34:32

I mean, I guess that wasn't the greatest

34:34

answer. The way I describe it is

34:36

it's like soup, right? So

34:39

if you have a big pot of soup and it's 30% beans,

34:42

like 10% broth, 15% chili or something like

34:45

that, and I gave you a spoonful of that

34:47

pot of soup and the spoonful was

34:49

30% beans, 10%

34:51

broth, and it was representative of the pot,

34:54

you wouldn't need to eat the whole pot to

34:56

know whether it's too hot or it's too cold,

34:59

it needs salt, it needs pepper. That's

35:01

kind of what we're doing with political polling. You're

35:03

just taking a sample of the opinions in

35:06

an electorate. Survey says that's

35:08

a gumbo. Yeah,

35:11

maybe there's a point in the subject. No,

35:13

no, no, that was a really good way of explaining it, but I

35:15

was stuck on 10% broth to be fair. I

35:18

think it's a big number. I think it needs

35:20

to be 40% broth. As

35:23

far as you're showing me, it's how

35:25

many beans, the broth ratio. Survey says

35:27

this soup is weird. You

35:30

can't tell a fat guy anything like that. Wait a

35:32

second. This is a chili in it. Who

35:35

made this? But that makes sense. Like a lamb?

35:38

That is a good analogy though, I like that. So

35:40

it's got to be representative of the whole. It's

35:43

soup's a good thing because all the ingredients are mixed

35:45

together so you can just do it from a section.

35:47

Yeah, but sometimes when I get soup, I will try

35:50

and cheat and I'll just get like a meal. You

35:52

can't survey a roast dinner. That's

35:56

what's called bad sampling and Pauling. Yeah, like if you

35:58

survey a roast dinner, you can't do it. dinner

36:00

one cunts just

36:03

gonna have peas.

36:06

Sounds weighted. One

36:09

cunts gonna have peas. My new

36:11

t-shirt I'm selling. I'll trademark it

36:13

right now. Alright so it's just

36:15

a it's a accurate

36:18

sample. How do pollsters select who

36:20

they're going to pull? Probably

36:24

from the census Jim's end. That's

36:28

that's not all the way wrong. I mean

36:30

the census it can be involved vote

36:33

like there are lists

36:35

that you can get from what's called the voter file.

36:37

Each state will have one that

36:40

can be involved and basically there's

36:42

two ways there's probability sampling and

36:44

non-probability sampling. Probability sampling

36:46

is just when you make sure that

36:48

the people that you're grabbing from that

36:51

list are randomized so everybody has an

36:53

opportunity of being a part of

36:55

the survey statistically speaking that's a better survey

36:57

then non-probability is when you just kind of

36:59

take the first 500 first 600 which will

37:03

increase those margin of errors. And how do they

37:05

select and how do they reach

37:07

out to you to do the poll because I'm very

37:09

skeptical of anything that asked me to do anything on

37:12

the internet or any bit of paper. I think everything's

37:14

a scam now. I think everyone's trying to hey do

37:16

you want to answer a few questions I'm like I

37:19

don't know. So how did I get to

37:21

you? Yeah I

37:23

mean that right there actually and we'll probably

37:25

have to talk about this and one of

37:27

the other questions but that's becoming one of

37:30

the issues to getting very pointed polls is

37:32

because people just don't want to pick up

37:34

the phone to random numbers. So

37:36

usually you can end up in a poll

37:38

by either being called randomly joining

37:41

what's called an online panel where you're a

37:43

part of a group of people who they

37:45

will reach out to or sometimes

37:47

people conduct polls in person they'll just grab people

37:49

off the street get their demographics and ask them

37:51

questions. But aren't you just gonna get the answers

37:53

from a lot of 80 year old people who

37:56

are lonely because my dad answers phone numbers that

37:58

he doesn't know because to check to.

38:01

Huh, no color already? In

38:04

a poll, you'll have quotas. So if

38:06

you have a specific number of

38:08

or percentage of 80-year-olds that

38:11

you need in that poll, you might get that earlier

38:13

because there's more of them willing to answer the poll.

38:16

Once you've hit your quota, you got to get this other demographic

38:18

to make sure that the poll is representative. And also, you got

38:20

to get them early because they could die. I

38:23

thought you were going to say go to sleep. I thought you

38:25

were going to say take a nap. Anything

38:28

could happen. They're all, oh, they could

38:30

become presidents. How

38:33

accurate are polls? Jim

38:36

said fairly accurate. He thinks they're 85% accurate. I

38:42

think fairly accurate is a good answer. They're a

38:44

lot more than 85% accurate. You

38:47

actually want a poll to be what is called

38:49

at the 95% confidence interval. If

38:52

it's anything less than that, you can pretty much

38:55

throw it away. And over

38:57

time, if we're talking about presidential

38:59

polls, they've only missed at

39:02

about 1.5 to 2%

39:05

margins since we started representative polls

39:08

in 1932. Oh, well.

39:10

Sorry. When we say the polls say

39:12

this, just take it as a given. And

39:16

you want to look at some other things. You

39:18

want to make sure that they're releasing their methodology.

39:20

You want to make sure that the margin of

39:22

error, you said 10%. That's

39:25

way too big. You want a margin of error that's like

39:28

3% or 2%. But

39:31

if it's outside of the margin of error, then

39:33

yeah. I reply about the size of my poll

39:35

by about 10%. How do you confirm

39:37

the confidence of a poll? But that, yeah. Yeah, that's

39:40

a good one. How do you confirm the confidence? What's

39:42

that? Through trial and error. How do you confirm the

39:44

confidence of a poll, Jeff? So

39:46

that confidence number is actually related to

39:48

how they get the sample. And

39:52

then the margin of error percentage is

39:54

in regards to how big the

39:56

sample is. So when you asked

39:58

earlier, is this a science? social science,

40:01

right? And there's a lot of statistics

40:03

involved, right? If you have a big

40:05

enough sample that is representative

40:07

to the population you're trying to talk

40:09

to, statistically, your margin of error can

40:11

be really small. Now, there's other things

40:13

that actually change that confidence interval and

40:15

change that margin of error like how

40:18

we ask questions, right? And Jim actually

40:20

pointed at something that was very real.

40:22

How they ask questions can change the

40:24

percentage that these, you know, answers are

40:26

actually good or bad. And

40:28

then there's waiting and all these other things that actually

40:30

change the margin of error. What

40:33

is waiting? We can jump ahead to that. Jim said it's

40:36

what my girlfriends do.

40:38

Okay, I pulled that lean a certain way.

40:40

I forgot there was a joke in there. Yeah,

40:45

he wasn't all the way wrong. Basically,

40:48

waiting is essentially a tool that

40:51

corrects for

40:56

over or under representation in

40:58

surveys, right? So, without

41:00

adjustment, a poll tends to over represent

41:03

people who are easier to reach like

41:05

the 80 year old grandpa that you're

41:07

just talking about, right? And

41:09

under represent people who are harder to reach

41:11

like 40 year old Australian comedians, right?

41:14

And so, waiting is

41:16

essentially when you adjust your results

41:18

or your data so that it

41:20

accurately represents whatever your target population

41:22

is, right? So if you have

41:24

a poll, let's say, because 30 something percent of

41:26

Americans are college educated, right? And

41:29

say you're making a poll, you're putting together

41:31

the people in it, and you look

41:33

at the respondents, and half are men and half

41:35

are women. That's representative of the country. That's good.

41:38

But you find out your sample is

41:40

60% college educated. Your sample

41:43

is way too smart. So all of your

41:45

responses are going to be too smart. They're

41:47

probably going to be more democratic, right? College

41:49

educated people are more likely to be pro-choice

41:51

and anti-gun and things like that. So you

41:53

would down weight the folks that

41:55

say that they are democratic and up weight

41:58

both folks that say that they are Republicans

42:00

so you can get an even

42:02

sample and even I

42:04

I studied musical theater at University

42:06

and didn't graduate But I'm anti

42:08

gun and pro abortion. So Pretty

42:12

smart for someone who it's pretty good, man

42:20

Yeah, it is interesting we were

42:22

talking about the question before that about the confidence level

42:24

and stuff to or how I don't know how To

42:26

trust a pole but sometimes like

42:29

you'll be like I don't watch Fox News and I'm

42:32

just using example I've been in the airport that in

42:34

they said a Fox News poll and I'm already like

42:36

I'm out I'm not listening to this fall.

42:38

It's gonna be I I I don't I don't like

42:40

any American news I've decided I don't like any of

42:42

it. It's gonna be weighted wrong You

42:44

know problem with American news is it's never the news

42:46

the news is meant to be new it's meant to

42:48

be what just happened They're always talking about and Trump's

42:50

gonna get indicted and there's a thing in the channel

42:54

If you watch if you would CNN or Fox the

42:56

main ones I only watch it on the airplanes anyway

42:58

I switch back and forth to say what

43:00

that side saying what that side again And then you

43:02

watch a bit of MS NBC and then all that

43:04

but I like news in other guy a BBC world

43:07

I like yeah, right. I

43:09

like news in other countries in Australia. Everyone watches

43:11

the news at 6 o'clock We watch

43:14

it for an hour and they have the TV

43:16

NBC and CBS and those are no one watches

43:18

them Well, I think they do

43:20

and regionally say actually more people watch local news

43:22

on stuff that's going on in their house That

43:24

people who watch cable. Yeah, I don't mind a

43:26

bit of local news I like to know when

43:29

there's a bake sale in the town where I'm

43:31

at and And

43:33

I like to watch morning news of the

43:35

town that I'm in where I'm about to

43:37

perform that day So I'll watch

43:39

Good Morning Cleveland for example Because

43:42

then I might be able to chat about the I

43:44

know about whatever's going on You know I mean so

43:46

and I also like a

43:48

local weatherman. There's nothing more

43:50

fun to me than a local weatherman They

43:54

always put a bit of jokes in there. They do

43:56

they're excited. What's what's that? What's the main guy in

43:58

LA? Rainy What's

44:00

his name? I don't know the guy

44:02

his name's like rainy day. I was

44:04

rain Dallas rain Dallas rain Dallas

44:06

rain is oranges fuck. He's got great air.

44:09

He's just called Dallas rain. I love that

44:11

very very bright smile Yeah, he's good to

44:13

go. He's good to go. You can tell

44:15

me there's gonna be a hurricane and still

44:18

keep watching All

44:20

right, cause I keep watching it's big news. Yeah Where's

44:23

the hurricane gonna hit? Yeah, what I'm saying

44:26

is I would keep watching him and I

44:28

wouldn't batten down the hatches Yeah, my what

44:30

my point was was so if when

44:32

you see something like when it's like a Fox News Then

44:34

you can just you know, it might not be but are

44:37

you is it safe to assume that might be

44:39

weighted wrong? Is that like the correct use of that term then?

44:41

I wouldn't I

44:45

Wouldn't immediately discount any any poll

44:47

that you hear about on Fox

44:49

News I

44:52

mean, I've had I've had polls that have ended up

44:54

on Fox News and I would say I'm far from

44:56

a right-leaning guy Sometimes the

44:58

numbers are the numbers and they're regulated

45:00

by boards That

45:02

are making sure you're doing things statistically, right? What

45:05

I would be a little cautious of

45:07

is how they talk about the numbers. Oh,

45:09

right They put a

45:11

little spin on it if they extrapolate from

45:13

those numbers and turn it into a story

45:15

I would be a little

45:17

more cautious about that. I have an answer to

45:19

give me an extra point I'm excited about having

45:22

a boy. Okay. I'll tell you take it to

45:24

you. It's where you use where the polls got

45:26

run I'll Hillary Trump For

45:28

your answer. Yeah, Hillary Trump Hillary

45:30

Trump. Okay, I'll jump I'll go to that question

45:33

Yeah And I'll tell you why

45:35

because we were working on the Jim Jeffries show and

45:37

a lot of people think that we went on to

45:39

The Jim Jeffries show to bash Donald Trump each way

45:41

and couldn't be further from the truth We

45:44

did I not say in the writers room if we cut

45:47

if we don't have to mention Trump don't mention Trump Yeah,

45:49

was like one of my rules and in the end I

45:51

would say the last 30 plus

45:53

episodes we didn't know it It is a more because

45:55

I felt like it fueled the guy too much and

45:57

also I don't want to piss off half the bloody

45:59

country I just wanted to make a fun show and

46:02

you know, yeah, but I'm saying the answer to this

46:04

question No, no, I'm just gonna tell you a little

46:06

story very quick Okay, so the pilot episode at the

46:08

Jim Jeffery show was meant to be Four

46:11

days after the election. Yeah, and all we had

46:14

written is an episode of TV where Hillary had

46:16

won Yeah And then we left I left the

46:18

office and she was winning my mom I was

46:20

like, all right See you tomorrow and I came

46:22

back and we had to write a whole new

46:25

show from top to bottom Yeah, because none of

46:27

us expected that to happen now Maybe that was

46:29

just a poll in our office, but I believe

46:31

the world was in shock when that happened That

46:33

was the pilot. Oh, yeah, the pilot even Trump

46:35

was in shock. Even he was in shock Yeah,

46:38

so I'm gonna say Clinton Trump So can

46:40

you name any historical examples of major polling errors

46:42

or controversies and what lessons we learned you're saying

46:44

Clinton Clinton Trump and I'm gonna keep my Florida

46:47

answers with Florida and the Cubans and Elian Josh.

46:49

I Don't

46:51

know about the Florida one I believe there was

46:53

just accounting error more so than a pool polling

46:55

era But yes The

46:58

Hillary Trump president so it depends on what you're asking

47:00

if they were wrong on they were wrong on How

47:03

the electoral college was gonna shape out but they

47:05

were right that Hillary Clinton was gonna win the

47:08

popular vote which she did right

47:10

so yeah, there was some errors

47:12

there mainly because Non-college

47:14

educated white voters were not waited

47:17

for properly in black people's polls

47:20

Because at that time period Being

47:23

college educated or not college educated was not

47:25

something that pollsters were accounting for because it

47:27

wasn't really changing how people were both voting

47:30

Donald Trump kind of came and sparked

47:32

a fire and not college educated voters and they

47:34

turned out at a rate the pollsters did not

47:36

predict Oh That election that

47:38

changed that man So I just want to say I

47:41

got a 6 out of 10. I would have got

47:43

my seven with that answer correct You're still Poland. Yeah,

47:46

but I would have gone. I just want to add that give me like a

47:49

6.4. Yeah, yeah, I can't believe I didn't think

47:51

of that. That's why you're gonna get that one

47:53

for sure Yeah, I think the questions I was

47:55

like, there's just a name to my head. I

47:57

just didn't didn't think about until now so

47:59

the You're saying the college educated voter

48:01

that wasn't a real big thing before

48:04

that election or the polling Some

48:06

some pollsters accounted for whether or not you're

48:09

college educated or not But some didn't in

48:11

a poll you can only account for so

48:13

many variables, right? It's not going to be

48:15

a poll of a thousand respondents It's not

48:17

going to be representative of how many americans

48:20

are uber drivers, right? Like you can count

48:22

for so many things race gender Age

48:25

and at that time period whether or not

48:27

you were college educated didn't really change How

48:30

you saw politics that election

48:32

we realized that trump did something different

48:34

to non-college educated white voters And

48:36

so now every poll that's worth its salt

48:39

Is waiting for non-college educated white voters making sure that

48:41

the percentage that they are in that poll is

48:43

the exact percentage that they are Of the population that

48:46

they're talking about whether it's the country or the state

48:48

or whatever Um,

48:50

what challenges do pollsters face in reaching an accurate

48:52

prediction of election outcomes and how they attempt to

48:55

overcome these challenges Jim said

48:57

apathy is the greatest setup Apathy

49:00

is the greatest setup. Yeah, maybe man can be right

49:02

actually That

49:04

is exactly right. Hey Jim

49:07

another soundbite of rain That's

49:10

exactly right there's other challenges, of course

49:13

Um, how mode is a challenge how you're reaching

49:15

people, right? So if you're conducting a phone poll

49:18

Really, you're only surveying people who have phones

49:20

believe it or not. Everybody in america doesn't

49:22

have a phone Some people only use landline

49:25

if you're doing an online poll, everybody doesn't

49:27

have access to the internet, right? So

49:29

you have some other challenges in reaching

49:31

people, but he's absolutely right apathy people

49:34

not wanting not trusting Institutions

49:36

that's another thing that's related to trump him

49:40

being at the highest stage Consistently

49:43

saying things like you can't trust the polls can't

49:45

trust the election can't so then we would call

49:47

folks And they'd be like, oh

49:49

you're one of those people who are trying to

49:51

make trump look bad and hang up And

49:54

instead of just saying like I like trump and adding

49:56

to his favorability they're hanging up the phone, right? And

49:58

it made it just that much harder to actually

50:00

get accurate representations of how people feel about

50:02

things. Right, but couldn't you

50:04

guys have a separate

50:07

poll, people who hung up and said,

50:09

you're one of those people? Yeah, yeah. And

50:12

then just put that in the Trump column. We

50:16

know how they're voting. Yeah, maybe. Yeah,

50:20

but they want it to be as accurate as

50:22

possible. I mean, you can insinuate that, but you

50:24

have to make them. No, it's a separate poll.

50:26

People who hung up. Yeah, yeah. It's separate. I'm

50:28

not... Democrat, Republican,

50:30

people who hung up. People who hung

50:32

up and told me to fuck myself.

50:35

Yeah, how did they hang up? Yeah, yeah. And

50:38

said, yeah. And they just yelled,

50:40

I'm wearing a red hat. You

50:45

figure it out. Oh

50:48

boy. In the

50:50

era of increasing polarization, how do pollsters ensure their

50:52

questions are unbiased and they're not in favor of

50:54

one political ideology over another one? That's

50:56

where Jim was talking about they start sentences

50:58

with imaginative. You know, what do

51:00

you reckon? They don't start with, we all know Democrats are

51:03

the worst. Democrats, what do you reckon? I

51:06

think you're right again. Yeah, I mean, in a

51:08

way that's exactly right. I

51:12

mean, there is the

51:16

polling board that pretty much they

51:18

put out journals and reviews on

51:20

how to word certain questions because

51:22

you can create what's called acquiescence

51:25

bias if you write a

51:27

question in a way that makes you want to

51:29

agree, makes you want to vote for a certain

51:31

person for sure. That

51:33

is one of the ways that you can stop

51:36

pollization. There's other things you can do with the

51:38

language too. Like whenever we ask, you

51:41

know, who do you believe is better

51:43

at handling the economy? The Republicans or

51:45

the Democrats will do what's called rotating.

51:47

So half of the respondents will

51:50

get that Democrats first and

51:52

the other half will get Republicans first. I

51:54

mean, I don't think the pollster is putting it in a priority order.

51:58

But yeah, I mean, that's a good answer. That's for sure. The

52:00

words as he does interesting

52:02

have a questions and. School.

52:05

On what is a likely voter, how are they

52:07

determine gym said he will likely vote is as

52:09

one wind up. As

52:11

I was an answer months now, more likely

52:14

varied. I like, I wanna do it. But.

52:16

Just regular nap or define wilt the other?

52:19

Just finished by mail right around for as

52:21

far away from the app on the phone.

52:24

On. Our dresser as as and six the

52:26

people and and fuckin one out of ten

52:28

times that I get they are good fucking

52:30

credit God said to me through the post

52:32

do one of my dogs original bothers bus

52:34

or a mile bugs not ours is different

52:36

box remote and you can mail it was

52:38

not enjoy to the voting box that so

52:40

I do and they like and they are

52:42

and angels won the anti on how far

52:44

we from apps and a half hour away

52:46

from apps. oh we're pretty far from ugh

52:48

I'm in Russia.lot of metal in our election

52:50

so far as the I've heard the giving

52:52

people don't trust him now thing. With apps

52:54

he bowed. Not trust voting

52:56

at all they did. Now are i

52:59

get just as he be a fighter

53:01

up so that guy bc advice regularly

53:03

since everyone once you get on are

53:05

they left and right and. Or

53:08

voted? Yes, you do. This is leeann

53:10

like be doing and med challenges. are

53:12

you the exact thing and was mildly

53:14

I know he's is. he literally just

53:16

tinder. It's worthless. what right? and we

53:18

all know what's the lefties. weed out

53:20

the ride is and you swipe up

53:22

for super like I would say we're

53:24

Actually, we're probably closer to going back

53:26

to paper ballots. Bumi are two apps

53:28

just because there is so much contents

53:31

and about the outcomes of elections because

53:33

that's. The. Way that President Trump spoke

53:35

about this last man would bairbre there was

53:37

an election in I were that used I

53:39

pads but you have to show up and

53:41

use them. And base it went poorly

53:43

and big mess of the town and middle

53:46

of the are going to be using technology

53:48

to talk to the also now in a

53:50

strain on addicted the out and as you

53:52

know this but in strides compulsory to vote.

53:55

And you have to pay a fine every time

53:57

if you don't buy gift about one hundred bucks.

54:00

And cerebral show up and it but it

54:02

is very easy to register you to shot

54:04

with your job was the that like kiwi

54:06

if there before any of the show your

54:08

allegiance they decide maybe on primaries and or

54:10

Starbucks us turnstile your to buy and it's

54:12

good because you have to back when you're

54:14

eighteen and are most people go to their

54:16

old high school divide it's in a whole

54:18

as like the first time you see see

54:20

all the pit people's we went to school

54:23

with. Since. You left school

54:25

reunion day. It is like I was

54:27

there for a bronze first bite. Anyway,

54:29

when I was. When.

54:34

I was fifteen years on my mother or

54:36

used to it to be like sitting count

54:38

votes. When I was fifteen years old, he

54:40

strained government, gave me a job to count

54:42

votes. Oh God. It's you made.

54:44

Since Dames I was in a good thing

54:46

to do you now. States

54:49

spends I is are literally I

54:52

remember sitting is getting a box.

54:54

A cardboard box. Cardboard

54:56

box or sites and just sipping

54:59

it out on the floor. A

55:02

sister in his out and then I sat in

55:04

the middle of our own of law and then

55:07

some all black got up and he's a was

55:09

like in his Id school it was was fifteen

55:11

year old it i'd year olds that was the

55:13

only people do it is not a job up

55:16

there was no already between right and my mom

55:18

and she was Id when she was forty anyway

55:20

side as well as a synonym for the guys

55:22

put all the different models and different pas and

55:25

say that these strains had. The liberal lie

55:27

boss. And then there was like the green party

55:29

and there was a few other parties it

55:31

came in and that's what I did. I put

55:33

him in positive, let me tales. But.

55:35

I stuck know the Paul's Up radio guy to pass on

55:38

to the all to build the kept. Getting.

55:40

That's a good idea. I

55:43

don't think that's a good as. Well

55:45

as shy as many many forcing people to

55:47

vote a like that I eat a little

55:50

bit. well be them going back to their

55:52

high school much Some of us are not.

55:55

avoid some people would be one peloton enjoyed

55:57

a lot of enjoy high school as has

55:59

widened rec There's only been one year I haven't spoken to

56:01

any of them. How much do you get fined if you don't vote?

56:04

I believe it's like a hundred bucks now or something. Oh

56:06

yeah. It's something like that. But when

56:08

my first sort of, they don't ask me anymore because I'm

56:10

not an Australian resident. I'm an Australian citizen but I'm not

56:12

an Australian resident. My

56:14

first five years in Britain, I just got

56:17

the fine and paid it because

56:19

I didn't think it was fair for me to

56:21

vote in an election in a country where I

56:23

haven't watched the news for years. It's

56:25

a $20 fine. It's 20. Okay. I

56:28

thought it was a hundred. I'm not saying it's a hundred. When you said a

56:30

hundred, I just remembered that a friend of mine got fined or paid it. I

56:32

thought I paid 50. The reason I said

56:34

a hundred was because I thought I was paying 50

56:36

back in the day. Oh yeah. But... of

56:40

mine didn't vote one time and they got fined.

56:42

I'm sure it's more than 20. If you have

56:44

received a notice for not voting in a federal

56:47

election, by election or referendum, and wish to pay the $20

56:49

administration penalty, you can do

56:51

so blah blah blah. Here's where it gets a

56:53

little bit ropey, right? Because my mother worked for

56:55

the elections when the elections happened. And so one

56:57

of her jobs was she counted the

57:00

votes and then another job she did, she used

57:02

to have to go around the nursing homes and

57:04

used to go up to the people and go,

57:06

and how would you like to vote? And they'd

57:08

blah blah blah blah. And they'd

57:10

go, all right, Mr. President, just take

57:12

a minute. No, no, anyway, so

57:14

they go into the nursing homes.

57:17

My mother would go to the... And it sounds bad too. This is

57:19

true. And into hospitals, people

57:22

in their fucking death bed, man, people,

57:24

they go in there as long as they are

57:26

considered of sound mind. Would you like to vote

57:28

or pay us $20? But I have

57:30

people who I know have not sound mind that vote in

57:32

this country. So you know what I mean? But

57:34

they may be in this room. Did we answer

57:36

likely voters, Josh? What a likely voter is, how

57:38

they're determined? No. Okay, yeah, can

57:40

you do that, please? So

57:43

a likely voter in a poll is

57:45

determined by... This can be a complicated...

57:48

I'm gonna keep it really high level, whether you

57:50

voted... What if you

57:52

voted in two out of the last three elections?

57:54

Usually. If there's some pollsters

57:56

that are listening that they might do it a

57:58

little differently, but you can't... can be

58:01

a part of what's called a likely

58:03

voter model. And that's when they

58:05

ask a series of questions that are

58:07

just like, you know, how much? Have you thought about the

58:10

election? What is the last

58:12

time that you X, Y, Z? Do you see

58:14

the election adjacent questions? And they score

58:16

you, and then that puts you in

58:18

a maybe a likely voter category if they're not

58:20

doing the two out of three. And

58:23

the reason why some people don't do the last two out

58:25

of three is there are 20 states, 25 states,

58:28

where you can't get access to the voting records.

58:30

So you don't really know if somebody voted two

58:32

out of the last three times. So they find

58:34

a way to get around it. Now, I used

58:36

to have this debate with my writers room. And

58:38

I think this is because my writers

58:41

room for the Jim Jeffery Show, or

58:43

not for this podcast, evidently, but

58:46

for the Jim Jeffery Show, we had a diverse

58:48

group of people from different backgrounds,

58:51

different races, and that type of stuff. And

58:54

I was always a little bit

58:56

Republican when it came to, I think you should

58:58

have to show ID when you vote. And

59:01

I think that's because coming from Australia, you

59:03

have to show ID when you'll vote, and

59:05

it's compulsory to vote. And so we're forced

59:07

to actually vote. And Forrest doesn't

59:09

agree with me on this. Forrest thinks this is-

59:12

Well, I don't think you understand that everything that

59:14

goes into getting ID though. That's what that was.

59:16

I do, I've got one. No, I know, but-

59:18

I've got a few of them. I know, but you

59:20

have- You have to have one to buy alcohol.

59:23

You have to have money to buy an ID, to get

59:25

an ID. And time and time to

59:27

get it and go to the DMV. Okay, well then this- I

59:29

don't know. I don't know. Okay, also,

59:31

okay, let's change it again. I believe ID should

59:33

be free. That should be part of the taxpayers'

59:35

money, that we should all be getting ID. If

59:38

the government wants us to have IDs, it should be

59:40

a free thing. You don't have to have one if

59:42

you don't want people in your thing and you want

59:44

to live off the grid or whatever, right? But if

59:46

you want to vote, what other option is there? Just

59:48

go and you should believe I'm this

59:50

person. I don't- I don't know, Josh,

59:52

do you have any- Because people are very passionate about

59:54

this. Please educate me

59:57

why it's wrong or why it's right or- The

1:00:00

debate on that is. I think

1:00:02

if you were required or his ideas

1:00:04

were free I think that that opens

1:00:06

up the conversation to use it uses

1:00:08

need an Id to vote for sore

1:00:10

eyes but a lot of will force

1:00:12

a saying is is absolutely right arm

1:00:14

as far as going back to what

1:00:16

you're saying about it being required to

1:00:18

vote. If. There was

1:00:21

like a voting day. was like a holiday.

1:00:23

I. Would say that I would be better public

1:00:25

public on and and I am day at early

1:00:28

voting. By. What?

1:00:30

Are we gonna we going to die off and his side

1:00:33

of i just sick that jack so civil rights me but

1:00:35

I'm pretty sure and astray he. Is. A public

1:00:37

holiday adviser nine and then when you eat

1:00:39

public on a week at the dials device

1:00:41

and then outside you get a free sausage

1:00:43

in a bit of bread with a bearded

1:00:45

guy ketchup on a good a sausage sizzle.

1:00:47

You get that to for election Day is

1:00:49

always held on Saturday at die Off. But

1:00:54

I you know, the real Id. I just got the

1:00:56

new real ideas whenever. It was like a hundred. And

1:00:59

i forget how as maybe one hundred twenty dollars some it

1:01:01

was on abs. And nine and at

1:01:03

our that's the mods egg work off the

1:01:05

only envy or any knowledge that south and

1:01:07

out of a Slant Eyed peas are going

1:01:10

to the doctor and is not Just got

1:01:12

my passport reduce it was like one hundred

1:01:14

and ninety but I never how do you

1:01:16

how to navigate through this world without identification

1:01:18

arena and like I know people of porn

1:01:20

I people struggling by you're not going to

1:01:23

get the at as great job without identification

1:01:25

you not gonna take that next step in

1:01:27

life. I feel like it's almost sort of

1:01:29

all of fun. Survivor or the people that

1:01:31

are that you're talking. About I don't abuse it.

1:01:33

how did they go to the doctor? Added a lot

1:01:35

of little have healthcare the emergency room as their primary

1:01:37

care. At a lot of

1:01:39

them don't have great job some of

1:01:42

them to buy a large percentage so

1:01:44

I believe it's like the majority will

1:01:46

probably do have ideas but your one

1:01:48

exclude the few that don't will I

1:01:51

believe it. I believe it worked against

1:01:53

republicans when they they tried to push

1:01:55

it through. There was some state election

1:01:57

I heard with I thought that people.

1:02:00

IDs. I know it

1:02:02

was the UK elections. The UK they said

1:02:04

people have to show their ID or something

1:02:06

and then it backfired against the right wing

1:02:08

party. I can't remember exactly how so I

1:02:10

should shut my mouth. Everyone

1:02:13

Google that. I should know it backfired. It

1:02:15

backfired more people actually came out with ideas.

1:02:17

There was something it didn't work. What

1:02:20

does margin of error mean and how should this be interpreted

1:02:23

by the public? Jim said 10% of bone

1:02:25

below where the poll number is. I know you've kind of addressed that

1:02:27

already but. Yeah. Other

1:02:29

than the percentage he gave he was also

1:02:31

very he was right. Yeah. That's that's what

1:02:33

your margin of error is. It basically tells

1:02:35

you you know

1:02:37

if somebody says if it's if I

1:02:40

say something like because you can do

1:02:42

non political polling as well. I say

1:02:44

something like 50% of 55% of

1:02:46

people have been have been on a vacation

1:02:48

in the last year or so. The margin

1:02:50

of error is three points that could be

1:02:53

anywhere above 55% and three points above 55%

1:02:58

or three points below right. So you don't

1:03:00

want a 10 point margin of error especially

1:03:02

if you're trying to predict an election that

1:03:05

could come down to like a percentage point or two. A good

1:03:08

margin of error somewhere under 4%. And how

1:03:10

is the margin of error being calculated as

1:03:12

well? I'd be too complicated

1:03:15

but. No well functionally the

1:03:17

margin of error really is only accounted

1:03:19

for by the sample size of

1:03:22

the poll which can be a

1:03:25

little misleading sometimes because there are other

1:03:27

types of error like I said there's

1:03:29

acquiescence bias, there's design error, there's waiting

1:03:31

errors that don't always end up

1:03:33

in the margin of error. So sometimes on in the

1:03:35

media you'll hear about a poll that has a very

1:03:38

small margin of error but if you

1:03:40

look through the methodology there are other error points

1:03:42

that aren't really being reflected in the margin of

1:03:44

error sometimes. And

1:03:48

how do we stop people

1:03:50

lying? That's a big question

1:03:52

that the courts obviously want to know as well.

1:03:55

So how do we like okay so you know

1:03:57

when you go to the doctor and the doctor

1:03:59

goes. back when I

1:04:01

was drinking and smoking and all that stuff, they go, how

1:04:03

much do you drink? And you go, I'll give a bum

1:04:06

answer here because I don't want to get in trouble with

1:04:08

a doctor. And as you get older, you give the correct

1:04:10

answer because you don't want to die. Yeah, right. But

1:04:13

like an insurance form, right? Have you ever

1:04:15

had a blah, blah, blah? And you go,

1:04:18

don't answer that. That won't go well for

1:04:20

me. Have you ever suffered from any depression?

1:04:22

You tick the no box because you're like,

1:04:24

fuck it, I'm not gonna answer this question.

1:04:27

So how do we stop, how

1:04:31

much margin of error is there for

1:04:33

people who might wanting to be swinging

1:04:35

a pole in a certain direction against

1:04:38

what they believe? Yeah,

1:04:42

so there's some things you can do to account

1:04:44

for people who are trying to purposefully mess

1:04:48

up your pole, especially if it's online. They're

1:04:50

called speeders. You can see how quickly they respond to

1:04:52

the question, right? So if it's like, yes, yes, yes,

1:04:54

yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, you toss those out of

1:04:56

your pole. If it's on

1:04:58

the phone, it's a little bit more difficult, but this

1:05:00

is something that also

1:05:03

had an effect in the 2016 election that you were talking

1:05:05

about, right? Like just like people lie

1:05:07

to their therapists, people lie to their pollsters.

1:05:09

And there's something called social desirability bias.

1:05:12

It was not socially desirable to like Donald

1:05:15

Trump at one point, right? So sometimes folks

1:05:17

on the phone with their pollsters were like,

1:05:20

I'm undecided, but then they went and voted for

1:05:22

Trump. One thing that we

1:05:24

did, and we actually stole this from

1:05:26

Tony Fabrizio, Trump's poster, good guy, a

1:05:28

very smart poster, is

1:05:31

instead of just asking folks, are you gonna vote

1:05:33

for Trump or are you gonna vote for Biden?

1:05:36

They would say things or let's use

1:05:38

it in favorability. Do you like Trump

1:05:42

or do you like Biden? They would

1:05:44

ask, do you like

1:05:46

Trump personally, but not politically? Do

1:05:49

you like him politically, but not personally?

1:05:51

Giving some more range there for people to

1:05:53

chip, no matter which one you click out

1:05:55

of those two, you're gonna end up in

1:05:58

the Trump favorability bucket, right? because

1:06:00

you have a little more range to explain yourself,

1:06:02

people are less likely to lie about it. Oh,

1:06:04

very smart. So little things like that you can

1:06:06

do. Because I reckon these people who lie about

1:06:08

who they voted for within their marriage, I

1:06:11

reckon there's blokes in this country who voted for

1:06:13

Trump who told their wife they didn't because their

1:06:15

wife would be furious. You know what I mean?

1:06:17

Yeah, sure. And what was

1:06:20

I talking about? And another way

1:06:22

to tell if someone's lying is by their voice,

1:06:24

if you do it over the phone, if there's

1:06:26

a bloke, he's like this, tell

1:06:28

you what, I don't care about those emails.

1:06:32

Those emails didn't matter to me

1:06:34

whatsoever. Think everybody with their

1:06:36

voice? And I think... Like

1:06:40

if you can hear him like loading a gun. I'm

1:06:43

doing that. He's loading a gun. Count

1:06:45

the background. He's loading a gun, his

1:06:47

teenage daughter's pregnant in the house. And

1:06:49

he's just like this, tell you what, those emails didn't

1:06:51

bother me nothing. They're

1:06:54

all right. That woman wears a fine

1:06:56

pantsuit. Are

1:06:59

there any... Look man, I did some polling in Georgia

1:07:02

and you'd be surprised. I heard some folks with

1:07:04

that type of voice, that type of withdrawal that...

1:07:07

I was doing a very nasty

1:07:09

stereotype there. Cause I'm

1:07:11

always amazed by, so for a while

1:07:13

there I'm the anti-gun comedian and stuff

1:07:15

like that. And then, you know, we'd

1:07:18

go like, we were in Oklahoma City

1:07:20

the other day. Like we know we

1:07:22

weren't, what's the other place? Tucson, right?

1:07:24

We were in Tucson and the crowd, and

1:07:26

we went out afterwards, met a few people.

1:07:29

They were the nicest people in the... I

1:07:31

remember in Reno, I stopped you in full combat gear.

1:07:34

Yeah, and they go... And he was like, you do

1:07:36

want to tell us this gun joke? And then he

1:07:38

was like, good joke. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Here you go.

1:07:40

I like guns. I

1:07:43

like guns, but I gotta tell you, that's a

1:07:45

good joke. Yeah, we're not expecting that. Yeah,

1:07:48

no, people always surprise you. They really do.

1:07:50

They really do. Are

1:07:53

there any particular demographic groups that are historically more difficult

1:07:55

to reach in polling, and how do pollsters address this

1:07:57

issue? Jim said white Australians between the age of 40...

1:08:00

Yeah, I'm 47. I was being very broad.

1:08:02

I could have gone 45 to 50 but

1:08:04

I thought maybe people think I'm

1:08:06

younger This

1:08:10

is Exactly, right.

1:08:12

Yeah, there are immigrants is one

1:08:14

of them for sure People

1:08:17

of color people who live in rural communities that don't

1:08:19

have access to cell phones People

1:08:21

who don't have access to the internet language

1:08:24

barriers, right folks that like can only

1:08:26

speak one language But you're pulling them

1:08:28

in another one And this

1:08:30

is actually the issue that created hit strategies the polling

1:08:32

firm that I work at which is the

1:08:35

largest minority owned public opinion Forum in

1:08:37

America. We specialize at creating methodologies that

1:08:39

capture otherwise

1:08:41

under represented represented

1:08:44

demographics in America So

1:08:46

yeah, no, I mean you you jokingly thing

1:08:49

it granted exactly right. Well, I

1:08:51

meant it because no one's ever told me And

1:08:54

I know other white Australians between the ages

1:08:56

of 40 and 50 and then they had

1:08:59

me polled either Look a poll

1:09:01

by the way, I missed for I said H

1:09:03

IT strategies. It's hit strategies That

1:09:08

worked out well H

1:09:11

IT like that University in Boston Wait,

1:09:18

but that is the other way What

1:09:20

are exit polls Jim said the last poll

1:09:22

before the result we are gonna see you

1:09:24

laugh Josh when he's on that so close

1:09:27

I laughed because he was so close. It's

1:09:29

actually the poll right after you come out

1:09:31

of the Done

1:09:36

I never knew it an exit

1:09:38

poll was still no. Oh Well,

1:09:40

we get the good it's when you exit

1:09:42

the polls Yeah, so the exit polls must

1:09:44

be very close if people are telling

1:09:46

the truth. I'll be 100% They're

1:09:51

usually they're usually very close But then

1:09:53

sometimes because of the media wanting to

1:09:55

report what's happening in this precinct or

1:09:57

this state so quickly sometimes you'll see

1:09:59

some mirror in it just because they're not handling it

1:10:01

with care. And sometimes exit

1:10:03

polls actually can be bad for

1:10:05

democracy, because they will start

1:10:08

reporting certain states while other states

1:10:10

haven't even really started voting yet.

1:10:12

And it kind of can influence

1:10:14

other states and things like that.

1:10:16

So they're a little there. I'm up and down

1:10:18

about exit polls. I like them, but not that

1:10:21

much. I know this from the West Wing because

1:10:23

in the West Wing, when Leo

1:10:25

McGarry dies, he's running for vice president. That

1:10:27

happens on election day and they're not done

1:10:29

voting in California. And the exit polls, yeah,

1:10:31

that's a whole... Anyway, another

1:10:33

West Wing reference there. Yeah,

1:10:36

as far as the... talks a lot about early

1:10:38

2000s TV, probably. It's

1:10:41

good writing. I like that. I like to... Whenever

1:10:43

we do a medical episode, he always

1:10:46

brings up mash. Yeah,

1:10:48

they were rapping a little bit.

1:10:51

How do the political

1:10:53

campaign... Jack

1:10:56

with the tags. How

1:11:00

do political campaigns and organizations use polling data?

1:11:02

Jim had already answered that, so I didn't

1:11:04

ask him to answer it again, but maybe

1:11:07

touch on that a little bit, Josh. Yeah,

1:11:09

political campaigns and other organizations use

1:11:12

polling data in

1:11:14

many ways, and predicting the election is

1:11:17

actually probably the least important

1:11:19

of those ways. Messaging is

1:11:21

usually one of the more important.

1:11:23

Polls can tell candidates the

1:11:25

most effective way to talk about their priorities.

1:11:27

So, for example, I was working for a

1:11:29

candidate who wanted

1:11:32

to talk about a bill that he had passed and

1:11:34

he wanted to campaign on it. And

1:11:36

the problem was the bill did a lot of

1:11:38

things, right? So, he didn't know whether to talk

1:11:40

about how it created this many jobs or how

1:11:42

it lowered the price of childcare. And

1:11:45

so, we ran a poll. You get

1:11:47

two representative samples, two evenly representative samples.

1:11:50

You present one with one

1:11:52

message and the other with another message and then you

1:11:54

ask both of them, does this make you more or

1:11:56

less likely to vote for this candidate? In

1:11:58

that case, the The message about the

1:12:01

jobs being created was like 25% more favorable. So

1:12:04

for the rest of the campaign, we were running around reading with

1:12:06

that, right? Didn't mean we didn't talk about the other stuff, but

1:12:08

we led with the jobs one. So that's

1:12:11

a big way that polling can help. And

1:12:13

then also segmenting your audience, right? A

1:12:15

poll doesn't just tell you what to say, but it can also

1:12:17

tell you who to say it to. Like you might find out

1:12:19

that like your messages about fixing

1:12:21

the roads actually does better with like white

1:12:24

women from the suburbs. So every time you're

1:12:26

around white women from the suburbs, you should

1:12:28

do this. Right. And you learn that from

1:12:30

the demographic data and poll. You're always bitching

1:12:32

about the road. Hey,

1:12:35

here's a good one. This is a good question that

1:12:37

you should have asked me. Why is it called a

1:12:39

poll? Um,

1:12:42

poll comes from the Germanic roots.

1:12:45

So there's like the Anglo-Saxon words

1:12:48

that we have in English. And then there's

1:12:50

like all the words that were influenced from

1:12:52

like French after the Norman conquest poll

1:12:56

came from that, those Germanic Anglo-Saxon roots.

1:12:58

I think it meant head

1:13:00

count, whereas survey

1:13:04

meant to oversee. We actually

1:13:06

have a lot of like words in English that kind

1:13:08

of have these double meanings because of the roots of

1:13:11

English. So like cows, beef and

1:13:13

pork become like, or cows

1:13:15

become beef, you know, things like that. Uh,

1:13:18

so yeah, it's a language thing. Right. I'm going

1:13:20

to say it's cause the pagans always

1:13:23

they wrap something. There'd be a poll and they'd

1:13:25

put different animals on top of the poll. That's

1:13:27

right. Head count. Didn't that really have to come

1:13:29

to something? Head count. Yeah. Head count from the

1:13:31

German. And I wasn't even thinking survey French, but

1:13:33

yeah. How do you not ask that question? I

1:13:36

don't know. It was right there. That's the first

1:13:38

thing you asked it. I know your podcast,

1:13:40

you ask what is it? Blah, blah, blah.

1:13:43

Why is it blah, blah, blah? It isn't easy. First

1:13:45

question. I don't know. I don't know. That was, that's

1:13:48

a lie up. I didn't know like the, the, where

1:13:51

it came from. But where did

1:13:53

the word poll come from? Yeah. I don't know. Sometimes

1:13:55

I don't know, but I know that you're going

1:13:57

to ask questions. Sometimes you do. What

1:14:00

role does the media play in reporting and interpreting

1:14:02

political polling data? Jim says they tell us about

1:14:05

them. We don't see the info. They can also

1:14:07

ruin their own polls. They

1:14:10

do tell us. That is

1:14:12

true. Boom. The media,

1:14:15

unfortunately, plays a

1:14:17

large role in how we make sense

1:14:19

of the entire world. And

1:14:22

media outlets really understand how

1:14:24

to elicit responses. They

1:14:28

oftentimes are

1:14:30

over dramatic with polls. They

1:14:32

overestimate. They under clarify. So

1:14:37

a lot of times the media with the

1:14:39

help of some pollsters who want to make

1:14:41

a name for themselves create these massive headlines

1:14:43

that predict something that certainly

1:14:45

should not be predicted confidently.

1:14:47

It should just be predicted

1:14:50

cautiously. But they just kind of go ahead

1:14:52

and do it anyway. I know

1:14:54

the answer to this question already. Are there tons and

1:14:56

tons of fake polls? I

1:14:59

wouldn't say they're fake. I would

1:15:01

say that they are misleading.

1:15:03

People mess themselves up with

1:15:05

this. Polls don't predict

1:15:07

action. Polls predict

1:15:10

collective opinion. And

1:15:12

opinions influence action sometimes.

1:15:17

And they sometimes the media

1:15:21

presents the numbers as if they

1:15:23

will 100% be the actions of

1:15:26

people not understanding the nuance of

1:15:28

what public opinion is. Does

1:15:30

that make sense? Yeah. Yeah.

1:15:34

So there's not like because all the lack of

1:15:36

a better term fake news like because there are

1:15:38

a lot of shit on social media that just

1:15:40

say shit. Like even if you're just

1:15:42

watching some actress they'll look at a picture of a

1:15:44

noun and there's no picture. Always look. Anyway,

1:15:47

they get me. They

1:15:50

get me. But then

1:15:52

I see things that are just anything that's

1:15:54

just anything from a web page that's just

1:15:56

called freedom now. I don't trust. Freedom

1:15:59

now. Reports in

1:16:01

a poll. Yeah. Yeah What

1:16:05

are some of the key differences between political polling in the

1:16:07

United States and in other countries or regions around the world

1:16:09

Jim says they don't mention polls as much in other countries.

1:16:12

You have to have authorized polls

1:16:14

in other countries He also said that

1:16:16

the election cycle is shorter That's

1:16:19

not really brief for three. Yeah, they've been great

1:16:22

Yep, there are countries where you can't

1:16:24

poll without it being authorized

1:16:26

by the government. There's questions, especially Especially

1:16:28

political polling like there's questions you just

1:16:30

can't ask The

1:16:33

election cycles are shorter so there are

1:16:35

just like letters less of a market

1:16:37

for pollsters, right? So

1:16:40

yeah, that was all I was spot-on I'll put you out

1:16:42

of business a shorter allow not a business but less has

1:16:44

because I was gonna ask you You're you've

1:16:46

been in the political world for a long

1:16:48

time. What do you think would be a

1:16:51

better election? But even if it's a shorter

1:16:53

election, so you still have federal and state

1:16:55

elections No, I know you still have that

1:16:58

but like I do have referendums presidential election

1:17:00

ramps up usually, you know Year and a

1:17:02

half two years. It's like do you have

1:17:04

referendums in this country? What

1:17:06

do you mean like referendums? I'm gonna say

1:17:09

no because I don't really know what that

1:17:11

means. Okay, so referendum So I should write

1:17:13

referendum Australia It's

1:17:15

like it's like when you have the state things

1:17:17

and you have all the different But

1:17:20

Australia every now and again, we'll just just for

1:17:22

example gay marriage was a referendum,

1:17:24

right? So they just went Pro

1:17:27

or against gay marriage and then as soon

1:17:29

as Australia voted pro gay marriage They changed

1:17:31

the law that day, right and

1:17:33

we've had referendums on a whole heap

1:17:35

of different things There was one to

1:17:37

do with Aboriginal rights recently There

1:17:40

was you know, they just pop up a

1:17:42

referendum every now and again. It's a little

1:17:44

we have stuff that doesn't go no Effect

1:17:47

immediately. Well, no, but it's just like no, but

1:17:49

you haven't an election You seem to have him

1:17:51

in election cycle. Yeah, I think that's a pain.

1:17:53

The Australians would just go I'm next

1:17:56

month referendum. Yeah,

1:17:59

you know So like we had a

1:18:01

referendum on whether we'd become a republic. Yeah.

1:18:03

And that's the only- Just like randomly in the middle of

1:18:05

the week? Yeah. Huh. Yeah,

1:18:08

and that's the only election where I actually campaigned. I'm

1:18:11

an Australian Republican in the sense that I

1:18:14

would like my country to be its own

1:18:16

country and not have the union jack on

1:18:18

the flag. I think we've been long enough.

1:18:21

When was that? That

1:18:23

was when I was in my early, early

1:18:25

20s, maybe even 19 or 20 like that.

1:18:27

And my mother was a monarchist. So she

1:18:30

wanted to stay part of the monarchy. And

1:18:32

my mother did not speak to me for

1:18:34

four months. Wow. She didn't talk.

1:18:37

It was, it was- I didn't get the letter what you voted

1:18:39

for? I was out there picketing. Oh yeah, picketing. Oh,

1:18:42

not picketing, but I was out handing flyers

1:18:44

out the front. I

1:18:46

strongly, but they were- Okay, so the monarchist

1:18:48

did something. So they go, they went like,

1:18:50

so we have a governor general. The governor

1:18:52

general can't do anything really. There was a thing

1:18:54

back in history and I'll go the dismissal. That's

1:18:56

a different thing. We can't talk about it now.

1:18:58

Right? But the governor general is just a figurehead.

1:19:00

Then we have a prime minister. We don't

1:19:02

have a president. Now what we would do is

1:19:05

they go, would you like that the monarchist like

1:19:07

this, if you vote

1:19:09

for a public, there will be

1:19:11

47 changes to

1:19:13

our constitution. The changes were

1:19:16

changing the word governor

1:19:18

general to president. That was the only changes,

1:19:20

just a word change, not a rule change.

1:19:22

The people like my dad and my dad's

1:19:25

a secret Republican, but he didn't want to

1:19:27

go against my mother would go, I'm all

1:19:29

for it being a Republican, but not under

1:19:31

this model. And then they go, you know

1:19:33

who changed the constitution? And then they put

1:19:35

pictures of fucking Hitler on the TV. Right?

1:19:38

So the old people got scared and just went,

1:19:40

I don't want Hitler. God. And

1:19:42

that's why we kept the queen. And we

1:19:44

won't have another referendum on whether we become

1:19:46

a Republic. Maybe in the next, maybe in

1:19:49

10 years from now, we'll have another go at it. Every

1:19:51

30 years we'll have a go. What

1:19:54

was the question? Oh, I think I asked what it, do

1:19:56

you have an opinion on how long you think the election

1:19:58

do you think is striking? should be a republic or

1:20:01

a monarchy. Yeah, it's all this. I'm

1:20:04

sad to say I don't have any opinions about Australia.

1:20:07

But I do think that's the biggest

1:20:09

problem we have is bloody apathy, I'll

1:20:11

tell you. I'm

1:20:15

all in favor of the election cycle being

1:20:17

much, much shorter. I think that would be

1:20:19

great for democracy. Just back on

1:20:21

Australia very quickly, I think if for

1:20:23

Australians listening, your chance to become a republic

1:20:26

is now. The Queen's dead, we all like

1:20:28

that. We're big fans, but now

1:20:30

is the time to move forward. Yeah, I don't

1:20:32

know about this new guy. He might not be

1:20:34

there long either. Now

1:20:37

is the part of our show called Dinner Party Facts.

1:20:39

We ask our expert to give us some facts, obscure,

1:20:41

interesting about the subject or that the audience can use

1:20:43

to impress people. You have two ones here.

1:20:46

They're both good. So you can do both.

1:20:49

Yeah. Oh, man.

1:20:51

Okay, let's see. Where's the... Oh,

1:20:54

yeah, it's in the document. Yeah. Oh,

1:20:56

yeah. Okay. People,

1:20:58

a lot of people are

1:21:00

talking about Donald Trump potentially being in

1:21:02

prison, which is very

1:21:05

possible. And

1:21:07

folks are asking, can he

1:21:09

run for office from

1:21:11

prison? The answer is not only could he

1:21:13

run, but he could actually serve from prison.

1:21:15

Boom. Yeah. In

1:21:18

1920, we had Eugene Debs who ran... I

1:21:20

think we've had two candidates actually that have ran

1:21:23

from prison. And

1:21:25

he ran against Warren D. Harding. He was serving a

1:21:27

10 years sentence for

1:21:30

seditious conspiracy against World War I.

1:21:32

And he had a really popular quote, which is actually one

1:21:34

of my favorite quotes because he was like a labor

1:21:37

empowerment guy. And he said, while there is a

1:21:39

lower class, I'm in it. While

1:21:42

there is a criminal intent, I am of it. And

1:21:44

if there's a soul in prison, I am not free.

1:21:47

So shout out to Eugene Debs who is long dead.

1:21:50

But... So we could have had

1:21:52

Jeffrey Dahmer as president. Jeffrey

1:21:55

Dahmer didn't last in prison very long, did he?

1:22:00

Yeah, within the year he was there. He ran.

1:22:02

Yeah, he ran for it. I know there

1:22:04

was one group of people who wouldn't have voted for him. But

1:22:07

he would have won all the way with

1:22:10

another suburb. Alright,

1:22:15

you can't beat that one, but let's have the next one.

1:22:18

You can just give that one if you want. You can

1:22:20

say another one if you want. No, that one, well, I

1:22:22

want to hear more. I love a dinner party fact. Okay.

1:22:26

Okay, the phrase is okay

1:22:28

and keep the ball rolling. All

1:22:31

come from President William Henry Harrison's

1:22:33

political campaign where they had

1:22:35

a really big tin and leather ball

1:22:38

with all his slogans on it that

1:22:40

they would roll from town to town,

1:22:43

you know, just as like popularizing his name to

1:22:46

increase the amount of people that would vote for him. And

1:22:48

they were also giving out alcohol to people.

1:22:51

So that's a good idea. So there was

1:22:53

a big ball with slogans. Yeah, keep it

1:22:55

rolling. They were like a massive tin football.

1:22:57

They push it from town to town and

1:22:59

they keep that fucking clean. Give

1:23:03

out drinks. I don't know. They

1:23:06

were giving out booze. Alright, we

1:23:08

bring back big bowl, big bowl,

1:23:10

big bowl promotion. I got an

1:23:12

idea. What

1:23:14

you got? No more

1:23:16

Malaki. Bring back the big ball.

1:23:20

That ball rolling. It would work. I think

1:23:22

that would work. I think that would work.

1:23:24

That's what you're going to say. Are you

1:23:26

buying into Barton? That's what it's going to

1:23:28

say. Roll it into town. I don't like

1:23:30

the ball. There's too many

1:23:32

balls. What's that? Jim's impression?

1:23:34

Who is that impression? Oh, I just

1:23:36

did an old man American. My

1:23:40

chump and my Biden is the same impersonation.

1:23:45

I don't see old people. What? I

1:23:48

don't see any difference between them.

1:23:51

They're old. Joshua

1:23:53

Das, thanks for being here. Remember

1:23:56

if you want to learn more about the subject.

1:24:00

or talks about the

1:24:02

intersection of politics and polling and

1:24:04

economics. Follow him on Instagram at

1:24:06

Josh underscore Doss, that's D-O-S-S and

1:24:08

then five, Josh underscore Doss five.

1:24:10

Also follow him on TikTok at Applied Science

1:24:13

11. Thank you

1:24:15

so much for being here Josh. Josh,

1:24:17

well, I appreciate you. Josh, I appreciate being

1:24:19

on the podcast, mate. There's dead set, there's

1:24:21

things on this episode that I'm gonna be

1:24:23

telling people this week until I forget them.

1:24:25

Yeah, it's been a good idea. There's some

1:24:28

podcasts where I'm like, oh, that was interesting.

1:24:30

There's things I know now for the rest

1:24:32

of my life really. I know the exit

1:24:34

poll, that's the bit just before the election.

1:24:37

All right, compliment Josh. No, after you.

1:24:39

Oh no. Hope

1:24:44

we learned nothing. Look, if

1:24:46

you're ever at a party and someone comes up to you

1:24:48

and go, oh, the polls have a sort

1:24:51

of 10% ratio of

1:24:53

how they could go wrong. Go,

1:24:56

I don't know about that. And

1:24:59

walk away. Good night,

1:25:01

Australia. Good as wonders, 3%. All

1:25:03

right, Josh, thanks a lot. You've heard this podcast before.

1:25:07

I think, at

1:25:09

the very...