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1:10

Music, radio, podcasts. Hello,

1:12

lovely curious-minded listeners. You're

1:14

listeners, you're listening to BBC Science

1:16

Science with me Gil. Today, we'll be Today out

1:18

be finding out how some of

1:21

the billions of bacteria that occupy

1:23

our guts are finding their way

1:25

into the bodies of our friends

1:27

and our friends. And And

1:29

why can we not find a

1:31

better, more sustainable alternative to

1:33

ubiquitous, useful but environmentally polluting

1:36

plastic? But but first. was Water

1:38

was pouring down some of the

1:40

streets of my hometown during Storm

1:42

but that was but that was nothing

1:44

compared to the scenes in the South Wales

1:46

of Ponty Preath. Cars submerged a a

1:48

garage, people using bins to bail

1:50

filthy out of out of their

1:53

homes, and the beautiful park and

1:55

Lido transformed into a brown mess.

1:57

mess. been And we've been

1:59

here before. Preath was... severely flooded just a half

2:01

years ago. years These are scenes that

2:03

now play out around the UK

2:05

every winter. winter. So So is the way

2:07

we warn people about flooding failing? We're going

2:09

to We're going to unpick exactly how

2:11

floods are forecast, how flood alerts

2:13

work, and what went wrong here. So

2:15

let's start with a firsthand account

2:17

from local resident local resident We were out

2:20

We were usual on Saturday night.

2:22

People were talking about having a

2:24

rough time the next day the

2:26

next day but nobody at all

2:28

mentioned anything about flood anything about So

2:30

about flood knew that there was

2:33

this imminent danger. First we

2:35

knew about it knew about it

2:37

family members came knocking the

2:39

door and shouting, are you shouting,

2:41

are you okay river had burst burst

2:44

his yards down from us. from

2:46

us. in the the meantime had

2:48

gathered the... ornamental gravel I suppose

2:50

from the front garden put

2:52

it into recycling bags to

2:54

make our own own because there

2:56

was nobody about for us

2:58

to ask for terms of

3:00

the warnings. warnings. Well, there weren't any weren't

3:02

it amazing with the technology.

3:04

Fortunately for our part our part

3:06

didn't suffer this time but

3:09

there were others who did

3:11

suffer a second dose within a

3:13

half years, and a half years

3:15

and I think good not

3:17

good enough all all entitled to

3:19

expect better terms of warnings. Thank

3:21

you so much to you so much

3:23

to being kind enough being kind enough to

3:25

tell us the story of what

3:27

he's been through over the last

3:29

few days and our thoughts are

3:31

with everyone who's been affected. Now Professor Hannah

3:33

Kloke is is with me. She's a

3:35

natural hazards researcher and hydrologist who

3:38

leads investigations into early warning systems

3:40

for flooding. for welcome to the welcome

3:42

to the And so hi. John was

3:44

saying there saying there was that he felt that

3:46

there wasn't sufficient warning, that he

3:48

didn't hear a warning. I mean mean

3:50

that's very distressing actually to hear

3:52

that there's no warning. there's no warning who

3:54

works in who works in making warning systems

3:56

warning systems making sure that we get

3:58

that technology right. right. get those warnings communicated

4:01

to people on the ground. When I

4:03

hear, there was no warning and yet

4:05

a flood happened. I know something's gone

4:07

wrong with that system. We have good

4:09

technology. So we start off with things

4:11

like satellites and measurements on the ground.

4:13

And then we do forecasting, so weather

4:16

forecasting, trying to work out how much

4:18

rain is going to fall. And then

4:20

we need to work out what happens

4:22

when that rain hits the landscape. Does

4:24

it run straight off? Does it soak

4:26

into the ground? slower pathways through the

4:28

ground and then we need to use

4:31

the physics of river flow to work

4:33

out how fast that flood rushing down

4:35

the river will move and when it

4:37

will hit the town downstream and then

4:39

work out what the water will do

4:41

once it's overwhelmed the banks and is

4:43

reaching into people's properties and that's very

4:45

very difficult and that's not even starting

4:48

you know the warning communication bit which

4:50

is a whole different section at the

4:52

bottom. That's just the physics part, right?

4:54

So then how do you get the

4:56

warnings to people that will be affected?

4:58

So most of this is based on

5:00

a trigger, so the level of the

5:03

water in the river, and how that

5:05

is related to how many properties are

5:07

going to be flooded. So it might

5:09

reach quite a high level and there'll

5:11

be an alert issued, meaning that there's

5:13

possibility that properties will be flooded and

5:15

low lying areas will probably be flooded.

5:17

And then as the river rises the

5:20

river rises higher, you'll get to a

5:22

different trigger level. in this case what

5:24

went wrong? I think the first thing

5:26

is to say that those trigger levels

5:28

may have not been calibrated properly, they're

5:30

not set properly, so those need looking

5:32

at. It is very difficult and they

5:35

can be set up for one flood

5:37

and the landscape is changing all the

5:39

time. People are building things, the river

5:41

is changing, so getting that exactly right

5:43

is a very difficult job indeed and

5:45

they always need re-looking looking at. But

5:47

there are other stuff going on here

5:49

too. The Met office had issued a

5:52

yellow warning for rain. and there were

5:54

lots of, it was probably felt a

5:56

bit overwhelming I think at times, and

5:58

of course the flood warnings are given

6:00

by Natural Resources Wales and in England,

6:02

in the Environment Agency, and they're not

6:04

in the same place, they're not on

6:07

the same website, you can't see the

6:09

flood warning and the met office warning

6:11

at the same time, and I think

6:13

people were feeling a bit confused about

6:15

what that meant, and certainly the yellow

6:17

warning, that's a very interesting one, because

6:19

the yellow people were interpreting it. to

6:21

mean, oh well it doesn't look so

6:24

bad, so we probably don't need to

6:26

do anything. Whereas in fact it meant

6:28

actually something bad might be happening, it

6:30

looks a little bit uncertain, so... There's

6:32

some communication problems there in the interpretation

6:34

of what that yellow warning means. As

6:36

you kind of alluded to there, even

6:39

if you get the messaging right, a

6:41

lot comes down to how people respond

6:43

as well. That's right, and this is

6:45

the kind of behavioral psychology bit. We

6:47

need to understand what people are thinking

6:49

in that moment and what action they're

6:51

actually going to take, what they're going

6:53

to decide to take. It's often very

6:56

difficult for people to imagine a flood

6:58

is going to happen, even if they've

7:00

been flooded before. They tend to have

7:02

this bias that they think, oh, it'll

7:04

probably be all right. A different group

7:06

of people who have been flooded before

7:08

can be very, very anxious about it

7:10

and worry excessively. And so you've got

7:13

all of these different things going on

7:15

at the same time. So a lot

7:17

comes down to people's behavior, response to

7:19

what is happening. So how do you

7:21

factor that you factor that into... flood

7:23

alerts, warning, messaging. Yeah, that is very,

7:25

very important. I mean, we put a

7:28

lot of energy, a lot of money,

7:30

we run a lot of supercomputers trying

7:32

to predict rainfall, trying to predict river

7:34

flow, and to get those flood forecasts

7:36

right. But actually, that's all entirely pointless,

7:38

unless we can understand people and their

7:40

choices and what they choose to do

7:42

in a flood. Yeah, but just to

7:45

be clear, you're not. You're not suggesting

7:47

that it's people's own fault for being

7:49

in the way of flood water. It's

7:51

not their fault. We are not communicating

7:53

that risk well enough. Certainly getting the

7:55

communication, I think, of the warnings right.

7:57

So people trust them as well. That's

8:00

a very important step. But also helping

8:02

them to imagine. And we must think

8:04

outside of the box. It can't just

8:06

be changing the met offices. Warnings is

8:08

one thing to do, but the other

8:10

thing to do is to build it

8:12

into daily. life so that at school,

8:14

at work, we're all very used to

8:17

understanding our flood risk and know what

8:19

to do if it does flood. Because

8:21

this is inevitable in a changing climate

8:23

where we've built on flood plains, do

8:25

we just all need to live with

8:27

flooding from time to time? Oh, we're

8:29

going to have to learn to live

8:32

with flooding, yes, that's exactly right. We've

8:34

seen this in Ponty Priest, right? It's

8:36

four years ago there was a big

8:38

flood, there's another one now, there will

8:40

be another one coming, are helpful and

8:42

we should put them in where we

8:44

can and we should support that financially

8:46

where we can. But we also have

8:49

to realize that we cannot defend everyone

8:51

everywhere from flooding. That's an impossibility. So

8:53

the more that we can adapt our

8:55

homes, the more that we can understand

8:57

what to do when it does flood

8:59

to keep ourselves safe and also to

9:01

help our property be resilient to that

9:04

flood, the better. Yeah, absolutely. Hannah Clark,

9:06

Professor of Hydrology at the University of

9:08

Reading. Thank you very much indeed for

9:10

joining us. Thank you. And Hannah was

9:12

the science advisor on a new drama

9:14

about how people prepare for floods. you

9:16

can have a listen to Chloe's Ark

9:18

on BBC Sounds Now. And we should

9:21

say that Natural Resources Wales, who issue

9:23

those alerts, says its message to professional

9:25

partners and the public ahead of Stormbert,

9:27

was that, quote, significant flooding was possible

9:29

across Wales and to be prepared, end

9:31

quote. NRW says it's going to review

9:33

what happened, including those trigger levels. Now,

9:35

would you share a fork with a

9:38

friend? A glass of water, maybe, perhaps

9:40

something stronger? Well, what about

9:42

a share of

9:44

the hundreds of billions

9:46

of vital microbes

9:48

that live in your

9:50

gut? your Many of

9:53

these microbes can

9:55

be traced back to

9:57

our biological mothers,

9:59

but a recent study

10:01

published in the

10:03

journal Nature that in the

10:05

the microbes of

10:07

nearly 2 ,000 people

10:10

in Honduras people in your

10:12

mother isn't the

10:14

only person you share

10:16

a the only person you share

10:18

a microbiome or known

10:20

with. as it's According to the

10:22

study, our friends and their friends

10:24

can shape the bacteria, shape the and

10:26

yeast that and inside our guts. our

10:28

guts. Joining me to discuss this

10:30

is gut health scientist from College London, Dr Megan Rossi.

10:33

Hi, Megan, welcome to the program. the

10:35

It's an absolute pleasure. Can

10:37

you remind me briefly, me why is

10:39

our microbiome, this in our gut? Why our so

10:41

why is it so important? is a

10:43

It is a game of in terms

10:45

of human health. So these microbes are

10:47

doing things like communicating to our

10:49

brain, our appetite regulation, different hormones. So pretty

10:51

much whatever your health your health goal is, is saying

10:53

saying that targeting a microbiome could actually be a

10:55

really smart way to kind of go about

10:57

that. that. Right. And I can can sort

10:59

of understand the process by which we

11:01

inherit some of that and then

11:04

our lifestyle how how that's shaped but who are

11:06

But who are we sharing our

11:08

microbiome with and why? on this based on

11:10

this new anyone anyone we're in contact

11:12

with, apparently. So it might sound a So it

11:14

might sound a little bit daunting,

11:16

but site shows that that your partner is going

11:18

to be the strongest person you're

11:20

going to share the microbes with. the

11:22

In fact, a really cool study showed

11:24

that every intimate that we have with

11:26

our with share we share million microbes. but of

11:28

course of course, this new it highlighting

11:30

it is not just people we

11:32

are directly sharing saliva with. Actually,

11:35

people we might not be in

11:37

direct contact with, we also could

11:39

be sharing microbes with them. how is

11:41

that is that transfer happening? Is

11:43

that just about sort of sharing drinking

11:45

eating together, drinking together, that sort

11:47

of thing? one of the main one of

11:49

the main so saliva not not only, you know,

11:51

obviously the kissing, but whether you're using

11:54

similar similar or, you know, drinking from

11:56

the same glass, but also So if if

11:58

you're talking to someone, you you might not...

12:00

even though they kind of go very very

12:02

small and they can transfer microbes that

12:04

way. But then we get a level

12:06

deeper and it's shared services. So you

12:08

know, if you're on the tube or

12:10

on the bus and you're holding the

12:12

hand or you're going to share microbes

12:14

that way. And then even a deeper

12:16

level, we know that there is millions

12:18

microbes floating in the air. And they

12:20

can kind of create these spores where

12:22

they go dormant and go to sleep.

12:24

But then if they land on someone,

12:26

then they waken up. And that's probably

12:28

what we're seeing via this new paper

12:30

in nature. It was done in relatively

12:32

isolated villages in Honduras. You know, with

12:34

the same apply in terms of how

12:36

that microbiome is shared if you were

12:38

living in a big city. So the

12:40

percentage will absolutely change. So in that

12:42

particular study, they showed that within the

12:44

villages. the average person, even if they

12:46

weren't in direct contact, shared around 4%

12:48

of their microbes at the strain level.

12:50

Whereas if you were living in the

12:52

same household with your partner, it was

12:54

around 14%. So we think some of

12:56

these bigger cities, so although it's unlikely

12:58

to be the 4% with everyone in

13:00

Manchester or Birmingham or London, it's likely

13:02

that depending on like your travel. So

13:04

if you're a commuter... Probably, you know,

13:06

you're going to share at least four

13:08

maybe six percent of your microbes with

13:10

those that you tend to travel with

13:12

on the train most days. Whereas if

13:14

someone's more in their car, then they're

13:16

less likely to kind of have that

13:18

shared connection. There's also, you pointed to

13:20

it, how important this is. There's a

13:22

growing body of evidence about our microbiome.

13:24

and how it affects our health. Do

13:26

we know how sharing microbes can affect

13:28

our shared health? Look, it's very early

13:30

stages in terms of what does this

13:32

actually mean in terms of things like

13:34

non-communical disease risks and things like that.

13:36

We do certainly know that people who

13:38

were in communities, they seem to have

13:40

similar or higher risks of things like

13:42

mental health if their colleagues had that

13:44

as well as weight management issues and

13:46

we thought that was just down to

13:48

shared behaviors and environments and families, you

13:51

know. genetic elements, but actually this new

13:53

research is suggesting well actually maybe this

13:55

is another mechanism that kind of might

13:57

predispose us to a small percentage to

13:59

gaining some of these non-communical diseases. Fascinating.

14:01

It seems to kind of play into

14:03

every aspect of our lives. You even

14:05

talked about our mental health there. Should

14:07

we be thinking about the microbiome of

14:09

people we're sharing our space and our

14:11

saliva with? Now I think we don't

14:13

want to get worried about, oh my

14:15

God, we don't want to catch that

14:17

microbe from someone and actually we can

14:19

put a positive spin on this. People

14:21

who are exposed to more different environments,

14:23

different people actually seem to have a

14:25

more diverse range of microbes. Microevial diversity

14:27

has been associated with... with lower risk

14:29

of different chronic conditions as we mentioned.

14:31

And the other point I think to

14:33

highlight is that very few microorganisms like

14:35

the bacteria actually inherently bag. A lot

14:37

of them actually. can be quite beneficial,

14:39

it comes down to how we treat

14:41

them. So you can have identical bacteria

14:43

in one person's gut and the exact

14:45

same bacteria falls into someone else's microbiome

14:47

and those bacteria act very very different.

14:49

So I want people to in a

14:51

way feel empowered that even if you

14:53

do transmit some of these microbes you

14:55

are ultimately in control of how you

14:57

treat these microbes and how you can

14:59

kind of make them be good for

15:01

you in a way. So how should

15:03

we be treating our microbes? What's your

15:05

sort of microbiome care advice for listeners?

15:07

Yeah, it sounds really simple, but the

15:09

number one predictor at the moment in

15:11

terms of the research is eating as

15:13

many different types of whole plants as

15:15

possible. So think about whatever you're having

15:17

for dinner tonight, and how can you

15:19

add a can of mixed beans in

15:21

it? It could be bolognese, could be

15:23

some takeaway. Again, add it in there

15:25

about 70P, so really accessible sources of

15:27

these prebiotic fibres, which literally fertilize the

15:29

microbiome. It's fascinating Megan, thank you so

15:31

much, but before I let you go,

15:33

can I just ask a quick question?

15:35

So I do, I do share a

15:37

lot of kisses and coddles, I've got

15:39

to admit, with my dog, I am

15:41

basically just his emotional slave. Do I

15:43

share a microbiome with Herbert? You absolutely.

15:45

Do share your I do

15:47

share your but her,

15:49

worry. worry, science actually suggests that

15:51

science actually suggests

15:53

that people who, you

15:55

know, have pets, that they

15:57

furry pets that

15:59

they kind of cozy

16:01

up to lower have

16:03

a lower risk

16:05

of certain conditions like

16:07

allergies a more actually

16:09

a more resilient to other

16:11

to other non -chemical

16:13

diseases, so actually

16:15

Herbert's looking after you.

16:17

after he's getting extra

16:19

cuddles. whether he likes it or not,

16:21

or in the name of Michael it or not, or in

16:24

the name of thank you very much

16:26

indeed. Rossi, thank you very much. Listen

16:30

Listen up folks, time time could be running

16:32

out to lock in a historic yield at

16:34

public.com. As As of September 23rd, 2024, you can lock

16:36

you can lock in a yield or higher

16:38

yield with a bond account. But here's

16:40

the thing, the Federal Reserve just announced

16:42

a big rate cut the the plan

16:44

is for more rate cuts this year

16:46

and in 2025 as well. That's good

16:48

news if you're looking to buy a

16:51

home, but it might not be so

16:53

good for the interest you earn on

16:55

your cash. So you you want to lock

16:57

in a a 6% % or higher yield

16:59

with a diversified portfolio of high investment grade

17:01

bonds, you you might want to act

17:03

fast. good The It news? It only takes

17:05

a couple of minutes to sign

17:07

up public.com. And once once you lock in

17:09

your you you can earn regular interest

17:11

payments payments rates decline. decline. Lock in a

17:13

6 higher or higher yield with a

17:15

bond account at public.com. But hurry,

17:17

your yield is not locked in until

17:19

you invest. by Brought to you by

17:21

Public Investing Finran, SIPC, yield to worst is to

17:23

worst is not guaranteed. an Not an

17:26

investment recommendation. All investing involves risk. Visit

17:28

public.com slash slash for more info. for more

17:30

info. Thank

17:32

you to Megan Rossie. And you're you're listening

17:34

to BBC Inside Science with

17:36

me, Victoria Victoria Gil. The first plastics

17:38

treaty that aims to tackle the

17:41

global scourge of plastic pollution is

17:43

about to be is at crucial

17:45

UN talks that are now taking

17:47

place in Busan in South Korea. in

17:49

Plastic production is at an all

17:52

-time high. In the 1950s, the

17:54

world produced about 2 million 2 of

17:56

new plastic of new year. each year. we're

17:58

making more than than 400 million tons. annually according

18:00

to the UN. And that is

18:03

a huge problem. One of the

18:05

solutions is to make all of

18:07

those wrappers, coffee cup lids, bottles,

18:09

and packaging out of other alternative

18:11

materials. Anyone who's an avid viewer

18:13

of anything David Attenborough presents will

18:16

know that we've been aware of

18:18

the plastic waste problem for a

18:20

long time. So why haven't any

18:22

new bioplastics? Materials that break down

18:24

and don't float in the ocean

18:26

or persist for centuries in the

18:29

environment taken off yet. Professor Steve

18:31

Fletcher, whose research focuses on plastic

18:33

pollution, is in Busan at the

18:35

moment and he joins me from

18:37

there now. Hi Steve. Yeah, hi

18:39

Victoria. Hello, thank you so much

18:42

for joining us from a very

18:44

different time zone. How are things

18:46

in Busan? Well, the negotiations are

18:48

ongoing. I've just left the conference

18:50

hall, actually. Things are going a

18:52

little bit slowly at the moment,

18:54

but the chair of the negotiations

18:57

is pushing forward some ways to

18:59

speed up the discussions to try

19:01

and get agreement by the end

19:03

of Sunday. Right, right. These things

19:05

are never straightforward. But on the

19:07

issue of plastics specifically, why are

19:10

there no widely available plastic alternatives?

19:12

It's an interesting question because of

19:14

course there are loads of alternatives

19:16

to plastics, you know, we're totally

19:18

familiar with wood and glass and

19:20

cotton and paper and these are

19:23

traditional alternatives to plastics. In terms

19:25

of biomaterials, there are some challenges

19:27

with the scaling up of the

19:29

use. Often the properties of those

19:31

materials are not quite so good

19:33

as the plastics that we rely

19:36

on these days. The production costs

19:38

can be higher and perhaps... most

19:40

significantly with bioplastics they tend not

19:42

to work in a system that's

19:44

set up for fossil fuel-derived plastics.

19:46

So why don't they work? What's

19:49

the big difference there that makes

19:51

them less functional? Well the challenge

19:53

probably is that waste management systems

19:55

are set up for fossil fuel-derived

19:57

plastics. So if some biomaterials or

19:59

bioplastics... and mixed in with conventional

20:01

plastics, then neither of them can

20:04

be recycled particularly well. And there's

20:06

a real kind of barrier to

20:08

entry for new materials into the

20:10

existing resource systems that we use.

20:12

And it's a real problem, actually,

20:14

for new materials coming into the

20:17

market. So barriers to entry and

20:19

the fact that we've got a

20:21

system set up to make what

20:23

we're already making. But is it

20:25

particularly difficult to recreate some of

20:27

plastics? very useful properties in a

20:30

material that doesn't persist for as

20:32

long in the environment as plastic

20:34

does? Well, there's two different things

20:36

there. So there are bioplastics and

20:38

bioplastic is derived from a biological

20:40

source, but a conventional plastic is

20:43

derived from a fossil fuel source.

20:45

And so many of the challenges

20:47

that are associated with conventional plastics.

20:49

are also associated with bioplastics in

20:51

terms of degrading into microplastics and

20:53

generating a legacy of pollution. With

20:56

biodegradable plastics, which are not the

20:58

same thing despite sounding quite similar,

21:00

after their useful wife has ended,

21:02

they will biodegrade in certain conditions.

21:04

And one of the challenges with

21:06

biodegradable plastics is that often people

21:08

will put them in their compost

21:11

heap at home because people would

21:13

assume based on the labelling that

21:15

they would be able to just

21:17

go to their compost heap and

21:19

degrade there. But of course that

21:21

isn't always the case. Quite often

21:24

the level of impossibility of those

21:26

plastics. can only really be achieved

21:28

if they're in some form of

21:30

industrial composting unit at much higher

21:32

temperatures or higher pressures? It's almost,

21:34

it's frustrating, isn't it, to kind

21:37

of talk about just how the

21:39

system seems to play into the

21:41

ubiquity of the thing that's causing

21:43

the problem. You know, we're really

21:45

kind of in this spiral, but

21:47

are there new materials in development

21:50

that you think are genuinely exciting

21:52

possible replacement substitutes and that are

21:54

more sustainable. than plastic?

21:56

Yeah, well there are

21:58

loads of materials

22:00

being developed. developed.

22:03

made from fungi, from

22:05

from algae, from

22:07

seaweed, seaweed, and

22:09

even artificial spider

22:11

silk. But the critical question

22:13

all of these all of these is

22:15

that sometimes there's always a risk

22:18

that they might be worse for

22:20

the environment than the plastic they're replacing.

22:22

So need to do quite a comprehensive

22:24

analysis of the pros and cons

22:26

of all of these materials really, and

22:28

then make a judgment as to

22:30

what is the most appropriate material to

22:32

use. material to use. And

22:34

not, you know, you know, on there, it's

22:36

not necessarily a plastic problem. It's a

22:38

throwing things away problem. It's a sort

22:40

of things problem. And that's what

22:43

the talks in Busan are

22:45

trying to deal with. in

22:47

What are some key things

22:49

that that plastic that agreement will

22:51

have will have to... deal with in

22:53

order to tackle tackle that well,

22:55

the Yeah, well if it is

22:57

agreed later this week, what

22:59

it ideally needs to needs

23:01

to address the continuing growth

23:04

of plastic production in

23:06

a situation where the

23:08

world's waste systems just

23:10

simply can't cope with

23:12

it. The volume of

23:14

plastic being produced is

23:16

just so great. is

23:18

No amount of recycling of

23:20

recycling or or any of

23:23

any of go current go-to solutions is

23:25

to work. to work. So what we're really looking

23:27

for is solutions across the entire the

23:29

of plastics. life cycle of reducing the level

23:31

of plastic entering the economy. So

23:33

the people talk about is turning

23:35

down talk a little bit. We then

23:37

look to phase out plastics that

23:39

we don't need or that are

23:41

toxic. need or We could look at

23:44

the plastic that is essential is

23:46

try and reuse it as much

23:48

as possible. as So what we're really

23:50

looking at is a at is a

23:52

economy of plastics where the material

23:54

is valued rather than just seen as

23:56

as cheap waste. because because it has

23:58

value, it will leak. out of the

24:01

economy much less as pollution because

24:03

we will value it much more.

24:05

And from the perspective of someone

24:07

who's watching the talks in Bissant,

24:09

do you feel like we can

24:11

get there? Oh gosh, I mean

24:13

that's a really tricky question right

24:15

now. We're just finishing day four

24:17

out of seven and right now

24:19

it's on a knife edge I

24:21

would say, yes, I mean if

24:23

we can make some rapid progress

24:26

in the next 24 hours then

24:28

maybe, but it's going to be

24:30

really tight I think to write

24:32

right down to the deadline. Well,

24:34

I hope you managed to get

24:36

some sleep and do keepers posted

24:38

from Bissant, for now Steve Fletcher

24:40

from the University of Portsmouth. Thank

24:42

you very much indeed. Yeah, thank

24:44

you. Now, was it a good

24:46

cop or a bad cop? Before

24:49

the UN climate conference started, Inside

24:51

Science presenter Mani Chesterton talked to

24:53

a panel of climate science and

24:55

geopolitical experts to ask, are climate

24:57

summits working? One of those experts

24:59

was Mark Mazlin. And now that

25:01

the Baku conference is over, I

25:03

caught up with Mark to see

25:05

if his predictions came true. the

25:07

cop wasn't successful at all and

25:09

the way I sum it up

25:11

is that China stepped up, we

25:14

had the USA saying goodbye, India

25:16

didn't even turn up and of

25:18

course Saudi Arabia tried to wreck

25:20

the party. So what we had

25:22

was a real mixture of geopolitics

25:24

and of course we're holding it

25:26

in a country where the president

25:28

said during the COP meeting that

25:30

oil and gas were a gift

25:32

from God which really didn't set

25:34

up the negotiations in a good

25:36

way. And so I would say

25:39

overall it was a failure because

25:41

The money that we were expecting

25:43

to be produced by developing countries

25:45

for the least developed countries to

25:47

actually get them to shift to

25:49

renewable energy just wasn't forthcoming. So

25:51

that's the money and not much

25:53

progress. On the panel program when

25:55

you spoke to Mani, you also

25:57

spoke about how last year in

25:59

Dubai... a big headline was that

26:01

countries agreed for the first time

26:04

the need to transition away from

26:06

fossil fuels in energy systems. That's

26:08

critical isn't it? Was that built

26:10

on at all in Baku? No,

26:12

and what was interesting is Saudi

26:14

Arabia tried to, as I said,

26:16

wreck the party. They were trying

26:18

to make sure that that statement

26:20

from the United Arab Emirates last

26:22

year was not included in the

26:24

final statement. Now, what was interesting

26:27

is the president of COP actually

26:29

did a balancing act. So it

26:31

is mentioned by document number and

26:33

by paragraph number in the final

26:35

statement, but the words fossil fuel

26:37

does not appear in the final

26:39

statement that came out of Baku.

26:41

Goodness me, the wording of individual

26:43

paragraphs and the sort of grappling

26:45

with language, it can really kind

26:47

of make this into a confusing

26:49

headache, doesn't it? In terms of

26:52

the science of how we get

26:54

closer to getting the trajectory of

26:56

keeping warming under two degrees Celsius,

26:58

in terms of fixing the problem,

27:00

did Baku get us any closer

27:02

there? I don't think Baku actually

27:04

got us any closer. If you

27:06

look at the previous statements from,

27:08

say, Dubai, it clearly states we

27:10

need to reduce carbon emissions to

27:12

the atmosphere by 45% globally. by

27:14

2030 and then we have to

27:17

hit net zero by 2050. So

27:19

nothing in Baku made that any

27:21

more likely, particularly as the 300

27:23

billion that's promised to help the

27:25

least developed countries move to renewable

27:27

energy, doesn't have to finally turn

27:29

up in total until 2035. I

27:31

mean it doesn't sound very positive

27:33

markets it's coming it's coming into

27:35

the the Christmas-y holiday season. Is

27:37

there anything positive to say from

27:39

this year's cop? China. I said

27:42

China stepped up. China said their

27:44

emissions will peak by 2030. All

27:46

the estimations are that it will

27:48

peak next year and then we'll

27:50

start to drop. Now that's four

27:52

years early. which is fantastic news.

27:54

There were some really interesting deals

27:56

on dealing with methane from a

27:58

waste around the world which 30

28:00

countries signed up for. We're also

28:02

then looking forward to say COP30

28:05

in Brazil, particularly as next year

28:07

will be the 10th anniversary of

28:09

the Paris Agreement, where the leaders

28:11

of the world actually said we

28:13

will limit global warming to two

28:15

degrees. with an aspiration of one

28:17

and a half degrees. And then

28:19

what we've been trying to do

28:21

over the last 10 years is

28:23

work out how do we actually

28:25

do it. BACU did not help

28:27

with that, but I'm hoping that

28:30

the interim discussions and of course

28:32

the discussions in Brazil will start

28:34

to accelerate action again. I mean

28:36

you did also speak in the

28:38

panel program about how terrible the

28:40

coffee and food was at the

28:42

Copenhagen. cop which is important for

28:44

keeping people going as they try

28:46

and last through these negotiations. Was

28:48

at least the food and coffee

28:50

better in Azerbaijan? So I have

28:52

to say the organisation of the

28:55

cop... 29 in Baku was great.

28:57

It was very well organized, it

28:59

was all very well set out,

29:01

it was very easy to move

29:03

around. The food was okay, it

29:05

was actually not too bad, the

29:07

coffee was okay. The only problem

29:09

that we found was finding vegetarian

29:11

food which wasn't just eggs, was

29:13

a major issue. Okay, but at

29:15

least the coffee and the organization

29:17

was good. Let's leave it on

29:20

that slightly positive note. Mark Mazlin,

29:22

thank you very much indeed. Thank

29:24

you. And that is all

29:26

we have time

29:28

for this week, You've

29:30

been listening to

29:32

BBC to Science

29:34

with me, Victoria

29:36

Gill. The producers

29:38

were Sophie were Sophie Ormiston,

29:40

Jerry Holt and Ella Hubber.

29:43

was by production and

29:45

the show was

29:47

made in Cardiff

29:49

by BBC Wales

29:51

by BBC To discover

29:53

more fascinating science

29:55

content, head to

29:57

bbc .co .uk, search

29:59

for BBC Inside

30:01

Science, and follow

30:03

the links to

30:05

the Open University.

30:08

University. Now off to

30:10

cuddle the dog

30:12

in the name

30:14

of my gut

30:16

health, but I

30:18

will be back

30:20

with you next

30:22

week, so until

30:24

then, thanks for

30:26

listening thanks for listening and

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