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0:31

I'm Brian Lehrer. This is

0:33

my daily Politics podcast. It's

0:35

Wednesday, February fourteen. So.

0:39

The surprise ending to the champs was

0:41

a mighty pillow brace. It

0:43

wasn't that close. And.

0:45

It didn't have to be few

0:47

Think about it. If Republicans had

0:49

only realize that George Santos was

0:51

to lying what Padma Homes is

0:53

to quarterbacking, they wouldn't have a

0:55

congressman expel during his term and

0:58

a special election wouldn't have happened

1:00

at all. And in this Queens

1:02

and Nassau County district where Republicans

1:04

have been trending since twenty Twenty,

1:06

the polls that showed it neck

1:08

and neck did not turn out

1:10

to be right as Democrat Tom

1:12

Swasey defeated Republican Mercy Pill up

1:14

by about eight points. So

1:16

who voted have within the district?

1:18

What do we learn about all

1:20

of Long Island and perhaps all

1:23

of suburban suburban swing district America

1:25

from this outcome? And what can

1:27

we learn because of this districts

1:29

particularities and those of these candidates,

1:31

and maybe even the effects of

1:34

yesterday snow? Here's the lesson Swasey

1:36

wants us to take away. Any

1:41

kids are sick and tired. The

1:43

political bickering they've had. it was

1:46

to come together and science jobs.

1:48

So now we used to carry

1:50

the message of this campaign. To.

1:53

United States, Congress and across our

1:55

entire country, and

1:58

in defeat most a pill up We

2:00

are a fighter. Yes, we

2:03

lost, but it doesn't mean we're going

2:05

to end here. And

2:07

with us now, WNYC Senior Political

2:09

Correspondent Bridget Bergen and Newsday Columnist

2:11

and Editorial Board Member Randy Marshall.

2:13

Hi Bridget and Randy, nice to

2:16

have you. Welcome to WNYC. Hey

2:19

Brian. Hi there. Randy,

2:21

why do you think

2:23

Swazi won and

2:25

why by eight points was it really that

2:28

people in the district wanted a moderate as

2:30

he suggested in that clip and saw him

2:32

as it? I

2:35

think that this district

2:37

knew Swazi. Let's not

2:39

forget that Swazi was a known name, a

2:41

known quantity. They knew what they were getting.

2:43

They may not have even liked everything they

2:45

were getting, but they knew what they were

2:47

getting. And I think after Santos, that

2:51

appealed to people. I also think

2:53

that Swazi's moderate message

2:57

and sort of leaning into issues like border

2:59

security, which became a big one during

3:01

the campaign, really did help

3:03

Swazi to get his message across.

3:06

And even whether Republican, Democrat, what

3:08

have you, that moderate message probably

3:10

appealed in the end. We'll

3:13

talk about immigration. We'll talk about Trump.

3:15

We'll talk about race and ethnicity. But

3:18

Bridget, what would you add to why Swazi

3:20

won and why by this margin? Well

3:23

I think the other way

3:26

to ask that question would also be

3:28

why did Pillop lose? And

3:31

to Randy's point,

3:33

while Tom Swazi was a real name

3:35

brand across this district, Mazi

3:38

Pillop is a new political newcomer.

3:40

She's in her second term in

3:42

the Nassau County legislature and

3:44

she really did not campaign across the

3:47

district in the same way that Swazi

3:49

did. If you were covering this campaign,

3:51

you would have thought this was the first time Swazi

3:53

ran for office. He was doing events

3:55

all the time. He was going to

3:58

local civic organizations. holding regular

4:00

press conferences, he would sit down

4:02

with anybody. And

4:05

on the other side of that, you have

4:07

the Pillitt campaign that did these very tightly

4:10

choreographed events. They rarely

4:13

let her go out onto the campaign

4:15

trail without having almost like a handler

4:17

with her, someone from the Nassau

4:20

County GOP joining her on the

4:22

stump. And she spoke

4:24

really very little throughout the campaign.

4:27

And given that we were coming from

4:29

the George Santos saga, there

4:32

was something I think voters

4:34

had a sense of that they really wanted to

4:36

know who they were voting for. They needed to

4:38

get to know this candidate, even if she would

4:40

have been the person maybe they were more inclined

4:42

to support. But

4:45

the party didn't give voters a chance to do that. Let's

4:48

take our first caller. This

4:50

is Jim in Bayside, which

4:53

is in the district. Jim, you're on WNYC.

4:55

Hello. Hi, how

4:58

are you? Thanks for taking my call. I just had

5:00

a question about do you think that

5:04

if Swazi was benefiting

5:07

by his support of the

5:09

bipartisan immigration deal, do you

5:11

think that that will carry over into the

5:14

presidential election as far as, you

5:16

know, voters dissatisfaction

5:18

with this

5:22

bipartisan put as the best possible

5:24

deal right now? Yeah, dissatisfaction with

5:26

the rejection by Speaker Mike Johnson

5:29

and by Trump of the bipartisan

5:31

deal, which would have had some

5:33

effect, at least at the border,

5:36

plus aided Israel and Ukraine and

5:38

Taiwan. Bridget, I'll stay with

5:41

you on this. It's too early to really

5:43

know. One of the things that I was

5:45

wondering is that since the border

5:48

deal from the Senate was so

5:50

new, it only came out last

5:52

week, you know, was it even around

5:54

long enough to flip a lot of

5:56

people's votes? But maybe it was. And.

6:00

what do you think about the national implications you

6:03

know i i was at an event

6:05

with the slazie campaign last sunday which

6:07

was the first sunday of early

6:10

voting uh... it was just before

6:12

the deal had been announced but it was

6:14

clear that that's what they had been talking

6:16

to people in washington because as he was

6:18

delivering his remarks he'd

6:20

was kind of looking around the room had the deal been

6:22

announced yet uh... so i think he had

6:24

the sense that it was coming what

6:28

it gave him with an opportunity to say

6:30

and been saying in agreeing with

6:32

you that this is a problem and

6:34

now here we have a bipartisan solution a

6:36

way to move forward the same way you

6:38

know as he would often say you would

6:40

point back to a plan that

6:43

he had developed with former congressman peter

6:45

king back in twenty nineteen called

6:47

it the grand compromise another path

6:50

forward to reforming immigration you know

6:52

ultimately he tried to say that in

6:55

order to solve these problems you have to work

6:57

across the aisle you have to come up with

7:00

solutions uh... where not everybody gets

7:02

what they want but we can address

7:04

this problem and to just say something

7:06

is a problem and not offer any

7:08

sort of polys policy solution isn't how

7:10

you govern if there's a the difference

7:12

between identifying the problem

7:14

and actually coming up with solutions to address

7:16

it so i think there is away for

7:18

democrats and we've already heard it and

7:21

governor kathy hokal who you know as

7:23

we know ran against tom swazian the

7:25

democratic primary in twenty twenty two was

7:27

on msnbc this weekend talking

7:30

about how the fact that republicans

7:33

tanked this bipartisan deal and now this

7:35

becomes an issue the democrats can say

7:39

you know we've identified the problem we

7:41

agree with you that it's a problem we've

7:43

come up with a solution but now you

7:45

want to prevent it moving forward because

7:47

you your uh... candidate who

7:50

is likely the friend runner for your ticket donald

7:52

trump says he opposes it so

7:54

randy i'm gonna ask you about the most

7:56

common kind of comment that we're getting in

7:58

our text messages i'm to read one as

8:00

standing in for the group, but we're getting

8:03

a lot along these lines and

8:05

tell me what you think. One listener writes, pundits

8:08

are overthinking this race, that

8:11

it was abortion versus the border.

8:13

The GOP miscalculated one thing, never

8:16

underestimate the racism in Nassau County,

8:18

an Ethiopian would never win out

8:21

there. What do you think? Yeah,

8:25

but I, so

8:27

this race was not, in my opinion,

8:29

a bellwether or a sign of things

8:31

to come or a bigger message than

8:34

what this particular district at this particular

8:36

time wanted to say. I do

8:40

absolutely agree that there is

8:42

some degree of racism in

8:44

this district, in parts of this district.

8:47

I don't know if that played a

8:50

role, but I wouldn't be

8:52

completely surprised if it did. I do

8:55

wonder if the choice of

8:57

Mazi Pillop was, to me,

9:01

the choice of Mazi

9:04

Pillop was a different choice,

9:06

had October 7th not happened, and

9:10

I don't know that they would have chosen

9:12

her had October 7th not happened. And

9:15

I do wonder whether

9:18

this race would have gone differently or whether the

9:20

dynamic of the race would have gone differently if,

9:22

for instance, former NYPD

9:25

officer Mike Saperconi,

9:27

who was in the mix

9:29

early on as a choice, had

9:31

been chosen. We'll never know, although

9:33

Mike Saperconi might be back for

9:35

more come November, we don't know

9:37

yet. But I do

9:40

wonder if that would have been a different

9:42

dynamic in this race. But I will say this,

9:44

I don't think this was only about race.

9:47

Mazi Pillop had some

9:49

problems in her campaign

9:51

and in who she

9:53

was and what she was doing beyond the

9:55

color of her skin. She

9:58

had a lack of preparation,

10:00

a lack of knowledge of the issues.

10:03

We have written a fair amount about

10:06

our previous endorsements regarding

10:09

her race, where we did not endorse her

10:11

for the legislature, where she didn't have some

10:13

basic facts at her fingertips. And it was

10:16

shown during the debate and at other times

10:18

that she didn't seem to have the basic

10:20

facts at her fingertips on a variety of

10:22

issues. So I would say that while

10:24

I think race may have played a role, I don't think

10:26

it was the only issue that hurt

10:29

her as a candidate in this

10:31

race. She was unprepared. She

10:33

showed herself to be unprepared on a variety

10:36

of these issues. To Bridget's point, a lot

10:38

of times they would have handlers with her,

10:42

surrogates who spoke on her behalf, even

10:44

at her own press conferences. And

10:46

I think that may have played more of

10:48

a role than anything else

10:51

in terms of the way people saw her

10:53

candidacy. But I wouldn't completely discount race as

10:55

an issue in this campaign either. Let's

10:58

take another call. Rick in Glen Cove

11:00

in the district. You're on WNYC. Hi,

11:02

Rick. Thank you for calling in. Hi.

11:06

Good morning. Thanks again. I absolutely agree

11:08

with what she just said. You

11:10

know, when you watch Mazi Philip at

11:12

any of the press conferences or even

11:14

at the last debate, she

11:17

just did not come across as

11:19

prepared. She didn't seem to understand

11:21

a lot about the issues that

11:23

we're all thinking about. She

11:27

seemed to be a rubber stamp. And I

11:30

absolutely agree that if October 7th hadn't occurred,

11:32

that they would not have gone with her.

11:35

She allowed them to put somebody who

11:38

was Israeli out front and center. They

11:40

thought that that was going to be a big issue.

11:42

It turned out to be less of an issue. But

11:45

for me as a voter, I think what

11:47

was most important are a few things. First

11:50

of all, the immigration issue,

11:53

it's not as big of an issue for me as

11:55

it is for some other voters because I

11:57

know that we're trying to get something done.

12:00

a Democrat trying to get something done.

12:02

And the fact that Trump would

12:05

pressure Republicans in Congress and Mazi

12:07

Philip to vote against this bill

12:09

where Swazi was for it is

12:11

just unconscionable. We're trying to get

12:14

things done and they're playing political

12:16

games. Abortion is a big issue

12:18

as well. And she's so

12:20

wishy-washy on the whole abortion issue.

12:24

She agrees with the woman's right

12:26

to choose, but she is, you

12:28

know, approach... She

12:31

wanted... She called herself pro and then... Right,

12:35

she called herself pro and then she was for

12:37

the overturning of Roe. I

12:40

mean, what is she? Is she one or the other? And

12:43

so I think from that perspective,

12:45

I think we want somebody who's

12:47

moderate in Congress. It wouldn't have... If she had

12:49

come across like a moderate, that would have been

12:51

a different story, but she didn't. That's

12:54

what... Thank you very much.

12:56

Well, Bridget, I think she was trying

12:59

to come across as a moderate on

13:01

abortion by saying she did support the

13:03

Dobbs decision, turning the abortion

13:06

rights question back to the states, but

13:09

that she would not vote for

13:11

a national abortion ban in Congress

13:13

because she believes that it's

13:16

not her place to tell a

13:18

woman what to do with her body. So maybe she

13:20

was trying to give too much of a mixed message,

13:22

although I thought perhaps it

13:24

was a weakness or let's

13:26

say a moral failing of

13:28

the Swazi campaign to emphasize

13:30

that she was being backed

13:33

by the conservative party, which does

13:35

support a national abortion ban because

13:39

Pilip made it very clear that she

13:41

would not support that. And

13:43

yet maybe as the caller suggests, that was just

13:45

all too muddy. Yeah,

13:47

I think, you know, as

13:49

we have said, there weren't many

13:51

opportunities to hear Pilip really

13:54

talk about her positions In

13:57

one of those times that we were able to hear

13:59

from her that... One debate or that

14:01

took place on News Twelve. The

14:04

extreme she had between with

14:07

Swasey over the issue of

14:09

abortion and and was a

14:11

muddled. Position. You know

14:13

she. She did try to say that

14:16

your she herself was pro life as

14:18

the mother of seven but would not

14:20

want to impose her views on another

14:22

woman at were limit their health care

14:24

choices. That. He didn't

14:26

as we've seen. that's very. that's that's

14:28

a very difficult needle to thread when

14:30

you're in a situation where you know.

14:33

does that mean she would break with

14:35

her party if there was a policy

14:37

on the floor. She said she opposed

14:39

the national abortion ban, but do we

14:41

know that she would be willing to

14:43

stand up to our party? It's hard

14:45

to know that when you've had so

14:47

little conversation with a candidate ahead of

14:49

them. Election. And more

14:52

coming in on demographics. One listen

14:54

arrives. Oh please, stop playing the

14:56

racism cards. Pillow is unqualified and

14:58

that was she lost. Ah, but

15:00

someone else rights. As an African

15:02

who grew up in Nassau County

15:05

and now lives in Salford. I'll

15:07

tell you that some of the

15:09

racists out here probably thought she

15:11

was related to Ilhan Omar. Press

15:13

have that's all over the place.

15:15

And then another listen. A right

15:18

to question Randy I don't know

15:20

if we can answer. This question.

15:22

But the question is simply: do

15:24

we know the demographic breakdown of

15:27

who voted? How. We

15:29

doubt. On the end more data

15:31

will come out as as we delve

15:34

into the results and we see a

15:36

by election district will be able to

15:38

delve a little bit into that. This

15:41

is said, the breeders point to

15:43

the costs. Quite a very diverse distract

15:45

armed and we we've done some analysis

15:47

art our data journalist the or

15:49

have done some analysis looking of this

15:52

distract. It's an incredibly diverse district and

15:54

Swasey played into that. He went out

15:56

and shook hands he the ground

15:58

game was in. Credible not only from

16:01

his surrogates for from himself. Where are you

16:03

know if you've met Why the on a

16:05

campaign he gets Sinner? You? Yes, your name.

16:07

Yeah, it's where you're from and then he

16:09

remembers that the next time he sees you.

16:11

That's a really unique. Quality.

16:14

They he has that that he does

16:16

himself that I think does appeal to

16:18

voters and that plays into the diversity

16:20

of this district and the diverse interests

16:22

of the district. Am I do think

16:24

that that certainly played a role here.

16:26

A but we don't know sort of

16:28

exactly who voted how. will be able

16:30

to learn a little bit more of

16:32

that as we see the maps and

16:34

we. Know by election district. How

16:37

many people voted? Where they turned out?

16:39

where they didn't turn out. But again

16:41

I will say that people were going

16:43

out into the Asian communities, the Jewish

16:46

communities, the African American communities of this

16:48

distract. And. Really trying to get out

16:50

the vote in ways that I honestly haven't seen

16:52

in the last several years, particularly in and the

16:54

Nasa part of the District, but also in the

16:57

Queen's Park and I do think that played a

16:59

role in in the Ultimate Swazi when. Here.

17:01

Is Barbara who's none of the distances

17:04

in Manhattan but this is a conservative

17:06

republican and has a theory about what

17:08

happened there. Bobby on to be when

17:10

my see how did I identify you

17:12

your your politics Roka. Yes,

17:15

You did! My name is

17:17

Barbara. I am a Latina

17:20

republican conservative. Which. A New

17:22

York is a unicorn. And in my

17:24

opinion I agreed. with. So much of what

17:26

you have to say today is either that

17:28

they really they ran a poor candidate. And

17:31

I think that com of i

17:33

want to remind you that see

17:35

that a registered democrat the she

17:38

never even heard of or republican

17:40

I think that the republican base

17:42

with not motivated. To.

17:44

Ago and and gum and vote

17:46

for her and aren't gonna want

17:48

to remind you that she refused

17:51

Trump help with this campaign so

17:53

she did not have the support

17:55

from the mega republican and that

17:57

the Nasa Vip. Are

17:59

specifically. I walked away from

18:01

any help from the the New York

18:03

Young Republicans which were willing to help

18:06

which would set of with.of one. Dot

18:08

his election with up a New York

18:10

or Young Republicans going out there and

18:12

knocking on doors. Additionally, Queens has been

18:15

spending light. And. She

18:17

didn't put any time into yeah, I didn't have

18:19

focused them to getting the vote on and we.

18:22

Still, I would say that

18:24

I'm. In my

18:26

opinion, don't judge November's elections

18:29

by this election. This is

18:31

a very nice and unusual

18:34

situation. And. And that's all

18:36

I have. To say father thank you

18:38

so much Please call us again.

18:40

Just is. What about that part

18:42

of Queens which a lot of

18:45

people may know may not know

18:47

has a Maga City Council member

18:49

in the last two elections? Vicky

18:51

Pollard, Dino so trending that way

18:53

but. Are very

18:56

soon observations farm father in

18:58

Manhattan there. And so let's

19:00

let's send on a little

19:02

conversation about how much of

19:05

a national the. Though whether

19:07

this actually is, the national media has

19:09

been focusing on this as an early

19:11

test of how to campaign in suburban

19:14

swing districts all over the country with

19:16

control of Congress of course very much

19:18

and play this year and I wonder

19:20

how much each of you thinks this

19:23

is a bellwether for elsewhere and how

19:25

much maybe you think it's not We

19:27

heard with Barbara just said about why

19:29

it may not be. Also, Randy I

19:32

know you are questioning earlier whether. Whether.

19:34

This is such a bellwether and

19:37

and this is a very demographically

19:39

New York suburb, right? Significantly Jewish,

19:41

significantly Italian and Catholic significantly Asian

19:43

American about eighteen percent, And this

19:46

was the so called Gold Coast,

19:48

the affluent North shore of Nassau

19:50

County for the most part. I

19:52

read the median household income and

19:55

the district is around one hundred

19:57

thirty thousand dollars. very high by

19:59

now. The Standard. So maybe

20:02

this is economically and

20:04

demographically. Fairly. Different from

20:06

the suburbs of Atlanta, the suburbs

20:08

of Phoenix, the suburbs of Milwaukee

20:10

where the presidential election, another congressional

20:12

races will be fought right from

20:14

the start. What do you think?

20:18

Yes, I agree. I, first of

20:20

all, Sit Farmers Points:

20:22

This is an incredibly. Different

20:26

distract then what a lot of the

20:28

other suburban districts across the country look?

20:30

Like I do believe that this

20:32

was a specific moment in time.

20:34

a specific set of of candidates,

20:36

a specific set of circumstances, That.

20:39

Are Not. Going. To be

20:41

repeated. Over and over and

20:43

over again across the country come

20:45

November, so. I as I said

20:48

earlier, I don't see this as

20:50

a real bout bellwether armed and

20:52

I do think it is a

20:54

demographically economically and otherwise I'm. Very,

20:57

you're very particular districts where it says

20:59

it's not the same as it is

21:01

elsewhere and they also have a different

21:04

set of the leaves. A different set

21:06

of issues that time in a we

21:08

haven't talked about salts yet the state

21:10

and local tax deduction, but that was

21:13

a big issue for this district, which

21:15

is not a an issue a unilaterally

21:17

elsewhere in the country. Another issue that

21:20

Swasey was able to really lean into

21:22

and talk about with authority. I just

21:24

don't really see the model. Of

21:26

sorts of this district, necessarily replicating

21:28

a self elsewhere. I do think

21:31

they. Can lead to learn a

21:33

thing or two by being. Yelled.

21:36

Bipartisan and by think seeming moderates

21:38

in some ways and like using

21:40

that can help, but I don't

21:42

think you can. Take this district

21:44

and replicate it anymore. and Bridget

21:46

of promote your article on Gotham

21:49

as soon. As of the last

21:51

word, Bridges does have an article

21:53

with our On Earth reporter John

21:55

Campbell called what Does Tom's was

21:57

these big win in New York

21:59

three mean for the November elections

22:01

and you've got a list of

22:03

things that it might mean, things

22:05

that it might not mean. So

22:07

how would you like to wrap

22:09

this up. So late

22:11

as Randy said, I think it is

22:13

absolutely true. Special elections, if in any

22:16

election, really are are moments in time.

22:18

There are a lot of unique characteristics.

22:20

Am about the events leading up to

22:23

them. the voters who are are turning

22:25

out. This is what I would say

22:27

about what we can take away from

22:29

this from November and you know we

22:32

says lobby. talking about issues the democrats

22:34

often shy away from. He talks about

22:36

immigration. He talked about public safety. As

22:39

Randy said, he talked about. Sell

22:41

taxes and you know, rather

22:43

than just letting it rather

22:45

than being in a responses

22:47

decision. He he. Was

22:49

attacking on some of those issues and

22:51

pointing to the fact that we have

22:53

right now and a house majority that

22:55

has been able to accomplish very little

22:57

even on the things that they point

23:00

to as the biggest problems. Even on

23:02

the things that you know across the

23:04

board people say are the biggest problem

23:06

Because there's so much inciting within the

23:08

party itself, they begin to do very

23:11

little. The other thing that I think

23:13

is definitely something that we will see

23:15

more of a cross and races to

23:17

com is an emphasis on. Making

23:19

sure that you don't leave. Voters.

23:23

Who. Them bleed voters on the field

23:25

so to speak that the democrats at

23:28

went out and went after every voter

23:30

in this district. As we talked about

23:32

they had a huge ground games and

23:34

they also put a huge emphasis on

23:37

making sure that people participated in early

23:39

voting in Vote by mail something that

23:41

in in years past republicans have really

23:43

so doubts on the ride the lady

23:45

of early voting in Vote by Mail

23:48

but. What? Happens if you have

23:50

a snowstorm on the days and election. well

23:52

then you have voters who may have participated

23:54

that can't participate on election day and so

23:56

I think will be part of the strategies

23:59

likely for both. parties going forward. Thanks

24:30

for listening today. Talk to you next time.