0:00

Well, 2024 is behind us and we

0:02

seem to, at least for now, 2024

0:04

is behind us and we seem

0:06

to, at least for now, have avoided

0:08

civil war, so now it's time

0:11

for us to look ahead to 2025

0:13

year make predictions for what the world

0:15

will look like one year from

0:17

now. But last year we must review my

0:19

predictions from last year and see

0:21

how we did. people I think it's kind

0:23

of ridiculous that people make predictions

0:25

year after year and keep getting them

0:28

wrong and people still trust their

0:30

opinions. I'm looking at you, Robert Kiasaki. I'm

0:32

I'm looking at you, all of the

0:34

people who predicted economic meltdowns every

0:36

year for the last 50 years and

0:38

just continue to be wrong and

0:40

everybody still keeps buying your newsletter. I'm

0:42

also looking at you, looking at you, Harry

0:44

Dent. make When people make

0:47

predictions happen, I don't happen. that

0:49

think it's reasonable that those people be

0:51

held accountable, so let's hold me

0:53

accountable to the predictions I made a

0:55

year ago ago see how I did.

0:57

First, I I predicted that interest rates

0:59

would stay high would stay we would have

1:01

a mild economic recession. recession. year, people

1:03

were saying that we would get would get six

1:05

interest rate cuts this year from the Fed.

1:08

And I said, that's ridiculous. That

1:10

will never happen. will At best,

1:12

we'll get We'll percentage point cut.

1:14

cut. And that's exactly what we

1:16

got. we got. We actually cut more often

1:18

than I thought, I but overall interest

1:20

rates stayed high. stayed high by was

1:22

was wrong about an economic recession. At

1:24

at least depending on who you ask. you

1:27

Technically, we did not have a recession

1:29

this year. And so I got the

1:31

interest rates part rates I got the

1:33

recession part wrong. Instead, what we saw

1:35

was that interest rates stayed high but

1:37

also asset prices stayed really high. What

1:39

the heck is that all about? That's That's

1:41

gonna lead into a prediction that I

1:43

have for 2025. for 2025. But overall we

1:45

saw a strong year of

1:47

growth, but still persistent inflation, and interest

1:50

rates stayed high. high. And that

1:52

trend probably is gonna continue

1:54

into 2025. The second thing that

1:56

I predicted was that we

1:58

would have a new new e-commerce plan. emerged

2:01

in 2024. It seemed reasonable to me

2:03

that it was time for there to

2:05

be a real player to come out

2:08

and compete against amazon.com. We hadn't seen

2:10

one come out in more than a

2:12

decade and it was time. Boy oh

2:15

boy did I get this one right.

2:17

No one except for me could have

2:19

predicted that TikTok shop would become the

2:22

player that it did in 2024. and

2:24

it is now a serious contender for

2:26

market share against Amazon. What we also

2:28

saw in 2024 was Walmart.com start to

2:31

have a resurgence. Walmart.com now does the

2:33

same volume that Amazon did 10 years

2:35

ago. That's really interesting because 10 years

2:38

ago everybody thought that it was a

2:40

really good time to get into e-commerce

2:42

and now Walmart does this same volume

2:45

that Amazon did back then. So we

2:47

have some very interesting tailwinds in e-commerce

2:49

with the emergence of TikTok shop with

2:51

Walmart.com and Amazon continuing to perform and

2:54

have record Black Fridays and record prime

2:56

days. These are some very interesting indicators

2:58

for what we can expect in e-commerce

3:01

heading into 2025. My third prediction from

3:03

last year was my number one stock

3:05

pick. I like to pick one stock

3:08

every year that I predict will go

3:10

up and my prediction last year was

3:12

PayPal. This is a stock that most

3:15

people overlooked, even thought was a dying

3:17

company. I looked at the vision and

3:19

the new team and said, this is

3:21

a company that I would bet on.

3:24

And I'm going to give myself an

3:26

A on this one. I went pretty

3:28

heavy into PayPal, at least for me,

3:31

and I was rewarded with almost 60%

3:33

upside in 2024, compared to a very

3:35

good year with the S&P 500, which

3:38

went up about 25 or 30%. In

3:40

fact, I think the S... and P

3:42

may have had a record year so

3:44

overall it was a really good year

3:47

for stocks but my number of

3:49

PayPal did exceptionally

3:51

well. It wasn't as

3:54

good as my

3:56

pick from two years

3:58

ago. pick My number

4:01

one pick two

4:03

years ago was one pick

4:05

which has gone

4:08

up 500 % since

4:10

then. up 500% since then. I'll take

4:12

60 % on a stock that most

4:14

people overlooked and said was even a

4:16

company. a What's my pick for next year?

4:18

my pick tuned! year? Stay finally,

4:20

I said that we would

4:23

see a rise in the

4:25

the -commerce conglomerate, meaning that I

4:27

thought that big companies would

4:29

start to merge in 2024.

4:31

this big this big wave

4:33

of acquisitions from the

4:35

post a era. rate

4:38

in a high it environment, it

4:40

makes sense that we start to

4:42

see to see start to happen

4:44

in e-commerce. And I'm gonna give myself

4:46

an incomplete on this one.

4:48

We did see some evidence of

4:50

it. For example, Dr. Pepper

4:52

acquired Ghost Energy, which which was a

4:54

really interesting move. That's big big

4:56

companies starting to come together and

4:58

Ghost was a fairly modest

5:00

sized e -commerce company just a

5:02

handful of years ago. So a

5:04

a very interesting partnership. There was

5:06

also an an that

5:08

was announced between

5:10

Amazon and between This

5:12

has never happened before,

5:14

where you see

5:16

two giants in the

5:18

industry come together

5:20

and combine resources. That

5:22

is unprecedented. is unprecedented. So

5:25

see hints of this idea

5:27

there being conglomeration in but

5:29

it was not the not

5:31

the big year that I

5:33

thought that it would be.

5:35

be a I'm gonna get myself a C minus

5:37

on that prediction. on that prediction. I

5:39

get about a about a my

5:41

predictions predictions from A few of a few

5:43

knocked out of the park the

5:45

a couple, couple, you know, I half half

5:47

partially right. right, totally got

5:49

got the one wrong. Thought we'd have

5:51

a mild thought we'd have a mild recession. we

5:54

had Actually, we had another boom year,

5:56

another inflation year, but a boom year.

5:58

So what do we expect in 2020? What

6:00

can we What can we expect

6:02

based on what we saw in

6:04

the economy, in politics, in in

6:06

e -commerce, in entrepreneurship? go into that

6:09

go into that right now. I'll share

6:11

with you what I see I see

6:13

emerging, I what trends I see happening

6:15

in e and I'll and I'll give you

6:17

my top stock 2025. Remember, I'm

6:19

an idiot that you follow an idiot that

6:21

you follow on the take anything Take

6:23

anything that I say is. investment advice.

6:25

That would be be done. First, let's

6:27

talk about a new industry that I see

6:29

emerging in 2025. I see emerging in 2025,

6:31

and it's AI SAS companies. It's gonna be

6:33

so easy to spin up

6:36

a software as a service company

6:38

in 2025 in you can just

6:40

create a prompt or a

6:42

small piece of code in AI,

6:44

spin up a new tool, a

6:46

sell it for it bucks a

6:48

month and have this new

6:51

tool that just does whatever

6:53

you program it to do. do. This

6:55

is kind of a silly example, but

6:57

we've actually programmed a bot with all of

6:59

my content, with my book, of all my

7:02

with and can now

7:04

respond to questions in

7:06

my voice. my voice. It it took

7:08

us minutes to spin something like

7:10

this up. what you're gonna see is

7:12

that is that program bots and you

7:14

can program little tools to do small

7:16

tasks. And it's gonna be easy

7:18

to sell those for to 50 bucks to

7:21

50 bucks a month the on what

7:23

the functionality is. I And so I

7:25

think that you will see a new

7:27

industry emerge and these little tools

7:29

that get created and that become software

7:31

tools. And they could be dollar dollar

7:33

businesses spinning spinning something up in a

7:35

few minutes and selling that as

7:37

a new. as a new tool, going to

7:39

be a new wave of small

7:41

businesses that entrepreneurs are going to

7:43

pounce on in 2025. in 2025. Number two, crypto

7:46

communities. I might I might be early

7:48

on this one, but eventually, this

7:50

is going to play out. The The

7:52

real takeaway from the crypto boom

7:54

is going to be crypto communities.

7:57

Eventually, people are going to their their

7:59

resources. and create cryptocurrencies that

8:01

they use to build

8:03

community and transact with one

8:05

another with those are going

8:08

to become asset classes.

8:10

We see this happening in

8:12

meme stocks, the real

8:14

magic behind the real magic behind Doj coin

8:16

or Shiba or or or. Fark coin, for

8:18

for goodness sake, is is the fact that

8:20

there is a community with aligned

8:22

incentives. Now, right now, the only aligned

8:24

incentive is the fact that they're

8:26

all trying to make money together. that

8:28

But all that's going to

8:31

be other incentives, too. When

8:33

churches, going or be other or

8:35

companies, or or communities with

8:37

a certain set of values

8:40

come together and they create

8:42

their own economy, their own

8:44

source of commerce, that's gonna

8:46

be the real the in

8:48

this in boom. boom. In fact, that

8:50

was what made Bitcoin. Bitcoin started

8:52

because it was a group of

8:55

people who wanted to have a

8:57

currency that the government couldn't manipulate.

8:59

It was us It was us crazy libertarians got

9:01

Bitcoin off the ground. Full disclosure,

9:03

I was a total doubter in

9:05

Bitcoin for many, many years. That

9:07

was a prediction I got wrong.

9:09

But what Bitcoin shows is that shows

9:11

people come together as a community

9:13

and they have shared values and

9:15

a shared incentive, they can change

9:17

the world. it's only a matter

9:19

of time. time people have

9:21

aligned incentives and start a

9:23

crypto to almost make

9:25

it official. it Next, in

9:27

e in we're gonna see

9:30

a rise in luxury

9:32

brands. The reason for this is

9:34

because the is to the bottom to the

9:36

bottom over. We've seen as

9:38

much of a race to

9:40

the bottom as we are going

9:43

to see in e-commerce. The

9:45

margins in the mass brands has been

9:47

squeezed. been squeezed. And so

9:49

the only way that you

9:51

can differentiate is by having

9:54

a truly different, unique, high -quality

9:56

product with good margins, and

9:58

that requires a a. of the

10:00

from from low quality brands

10:02

to high quality luxury brands. Here's

10:05

how I figured this one out.

10:07

I got got -involved in the business

10:09

that I sold back in 2017

10:11

and honestly I I thought it was

10:13

gonna be harder this time around.

10:16

But what I noticed is that

10:18

e -commerce entrepreneurs are really bad right

10:20

now. now. People don't build audiences. build

10:22

They don't build really high quality

10:24

products. They're just trying to compete with

10:26

all the other brands and charge

10:28

less money than everybody else. else. And They're

10:30

not really good at marketing at they're not really

10:32

good at differentiating their product. at differentiating

10:35

their product. People aren't good in It's been

10:37

such a booming space that you

10:39

haven't had to be good. It's like

10:41

It's a crypto right now. You don't

10:43

even need to be different. You be

10:45

be trendy and you win until

10:47

you rug pull everybody else. else. e -commerce

10:49

has has of been like that

10:51

for the last few years. You

10:54

haven't even needed to be good. even

10:56

Now, if you are good, are good,

10:58

you stand out you are able

11:00

to have really high margins and

11:02

really high quality products and you

11:04

end up getting all of this

11:06

market share even in saturated markets.

11:09

saturated I think that we will

11:11

see our return to high to high margin.

11:13

-commerce brands because a few entrepreneurs will

11:15

realize, realize, if you're reasonably good

11:17

at this, this, can absolutely clean up. So we're

11:19

gonna see a new wave of high see a

11:21

new wave. of high in

11:23

luxury brands in e -commerce, even

11:26

on platforms like Amazon, where

11:28

everybody else is trying to

11:30

charge the minimum. see the you'll

11:32

see the brands that win will be

11:34

the ones with premium price points. points. Next,

11:37

I'm going to predict that

11:39

politically or... or societyally, we

11:41

see a We see a

11:43

to to community, a or

11:46

a return to some sense

11:48

of unity. We'll see

11:50

people start to work together again,

11:52

even if they disagree on things.

11:55

on things. has has

11:57

peaked. is now is

11:59

now. dying off. We now realize that We

12:01

now realize that we don't have to hate

12:03

each other if we have different conclusions and we

12:06

are starting to realize that. that the

12:08

world is a little bit more nuanced

12:10

and less black and white than

12:12

we thought. And the people on that

12:14

team aren't always enemies. Sometimes they

12:16

just have a different perspective. And so

12:18

why don't we just get back

12:20

to normal of doing business together? And

12:22

why don't we just come together

12:24

with. with a a unified vision of

12:26

how we can win together and

12:29

serve the community or the

12:31

world together. So I think

12:33

we are going to see a

12:35

much more moderate tone in the

12:37

world, less a return a return to

12:39

community, and we're gonna see more

12:42

incentives for that to be the

12:44

case. There are stronger incentives now now

12:46

us to work together in spite

12:48

of our differences, rather than throw

12:50

stones at each other other it's

12:52

not cool anymore to judge a

12:55

group of people for their beliefs.

12:57

I'm really glad that that's the

12:59

case. now Now we can move forward.

13:01

And I give - the credit to

13:03

capitalism for that one for

13:05

capitalism is the force

13:07

in which is the combined resources,

13:09

our combined focus is worth

13:12

more together together than... They are separate. The

13:14

The most unifying force in the world

13:16

is trade. are When we are incentivized

13:18

to trade together, we we don't care

13:20

so much about what you look

13:22

like or what you believe we care

13:24

about what we can do together

13:26

and that creates understanding and trade. and

13:28

And so I think we're going to

13:30

see the next to see the next more

13:32

unified visions together and

13:34

less and less judgment. let's talk about

13:37

the economy. I think this year we're

13:39

going to we're going to see... a pretty boring

13:41

year. think that

13:43

the euphoria, the excitement

13:45

about the Trump crypto,

13:47

about crypto, about interest

13:49

rates coming down, in I think that's all

13:51

priced in right now. And so I think

13:54

we're going to have a pretty tepid

13:56

environment in terms of growth this year. I

13:58

think there's going to be some tempered

14:00

expectations once the new comes in, people are

14:02

going to realize that not much is

14:04

going to change quickly. change there is

14:06

going to be If it's going to

14:08

take some time. I also think

14:11

that take some got also tough pill to

14:13

swallow pill we realize that realize and Trump

14:15

really do want to create a

14:17

more efficient government. That means that we're

14:19

going to have to reduce spending.

14:21

And when we to spending, that's

14:23

tough in the short

14:26

term. that's tough in the short exciting

14:28

to see money taken out of

14:30

the the economy. It's the right thing

14:32

to do term, but but it could

14:34

be hard in the short term when

14:36

it comes the amount of money amount of

14:38

money that is being spent in

14:40

the economy. So So I think we

14:42

will see see expectations and slow

14:44

growth, not necessarily a recession, but

14:46

overall a flat year while we

14:48

readjust to a new environment. Now

14:50

let's conclude with my number one

14:52

stock pick for 2025. I I gotta

14:54

give a little bit of context

14:56

to this. I don't see any

14:59

obvious opportunities right now. The right

15:01

so hot so I think that a

15:03

lot of optimism is already priced

15:05

in. So there's not a lot

15:07

of not a lot opportunities. So,

15:10

I'm gonna give you two I like

15:12

and then my number one pick. I

15:14

like I like which is kind

15:16

of a weird pick, but

15:18

it's a fascinating story. Kellogg's, as

15:20

we know it, doesn't even

15:23

exist anymore. They split into two

15:25

companies in 2023, in and their

15:27

snack brand, which had Pringles

15:29

and and cheesets, acquired by by Mars. So

15:31

So, all of those Kellogg's brands,

15:34

they're just part of Mars

15:36

now. Mars what was what is

15:38

this tiny little little startup

15:40

that is is Kellogg cereals. They IPO

15:42

a a billion dollar They're

15:44

tiny, they're operating like a

15:47

They're I'm fascinated. I'm

15:49

stories like that. And when you

15:51

have this big brand spun

15:53

off into a spun off into a just

15:55

it's just really fascinating

15:58

to watch. So So I think Kella. is

16:00

gonna be a very interesting

16:02

play over the next couple of

16:04

years. I also think, ooh,

16:06

this is gonna piss some people

16:08

off. Pfizer is gonna be

16:10

a very interesting stock to watch

16:12

in 2025. For all the

16:14

people who say they just got

16:16

into it for the money,

16:18

Pfizer lost over a hundred billion

16:20

dollars in market share over

16:22

the last couple of years. Their

16:24

stock is down over 50%.

16:26

They weren't even profitable last year.

16:28

They just swung the pendulum

16:30

into profitability again, and they have

16:32

all this brand recognition and

16:34

a ton of R &D. So

16:36

I think Pfizer is gonna be

16:38

an interesting pick in 2025.

16:40

But my number one pick for

16:42

2025 is Alibaba. Sport, full

16:45

disclosure, I own some Alibaba. I'm

16:47

long Alibaba, and this is not

16:49

investment advice. Don't listen to anything

16:51

that I say I'm an idiot

16:53

that you follow on the internet.

16:55

But I think that China is

16:58

gonna be fine. They're gonna weather

17:00

their own storm. I think e

17:02

-commerce is very strong right now.

17:04

And Alibaba as a company is

17:06

still hugely profitable. However, the stock

17:08

itself has been beat up. They

17:10

used to be one of the

17:12

highest valued companies in the world,

17:14

and today they've fallen by over

17:17

70%. So there's been a lot

17:19

of bad news keeping the price

17:21

down of Alibaba. I think that

17:23

this is gonna be the year

17:25

where they start to swing in

17:27

the other direction. So there is

17:29

so much stimulus happening in China.

17:31

China is gonna be fine in

17:33

the long term, and e -commerce is

17:35

so strong that I think Alibaba

17:38

is gonna benefit from tailwinds in

17:40

2025, and it's going to start

17:42

to recover as a stock. And

17:44

they've got huge profits. They're gonna

17:46

be fine. So that's my number

17:48

one stock pick for 2025. It's

17:50

Alibaba. When it comes to predictions,

17:52

I agree with Scott Adams. Predictions

17:54

are a way of testing if

17:57

your filter on the world is

17:59

accurate. When I look at the

18:01

people, who make predictions about the

18:03

economy melting, and they're wrong they're

18:05

year after year. year, I believe

18:07

believe that that's evidence that their

18:09

their on the world is wrong.

18:12

when people make predictions about certain

18:14

cryptos going to the and it

18:17

doesn't happen. I I think that means

18:19

that their filter on the world

18:21

is wrong. world is is a way

18:23

for us to test to my

18:25

optimistic frame on the world. And

18:27

I'd love to hear what you

18:30

thought of my predictions if you've

18:32

got any ones for for 2025, that are

18:34

that are different from mine, take

18:36

care. And now a And now a quick

18:38

word from Dr. Ziegler, Travis one of our

18:41

of our members from the capitalism.com community.

18:43

I'm Travis Ziegler and along with

18:45

my wife, Dr. Jenna Ziegler, we

18:47

started a brand called I We We

18:49

had our called in June of

18:51

2021, so that was a huge

18:54

milestone for us, both from making

18:56

us financially free free. to getting us

18:58

out of debt, student loan debt

19:00

that we've had since we became

19:02

doctors in optometry school, we and in

19:04

we sold, we were doing close

19:06

to we ,000 a month. I started

19:09

with a month. I back in 2017, 2016,

19:11

2016, around that time. and I joined the

19:13

tribe which was the equivalent to the

19:15

incubator the incubator now. The biggest thing, and

19:17

I think this is the fear

19:19

that brings us all back us all

19:21

is of investing and getting that

19:23

return on your money. return so my

19:25

fear of investing in myself, in

19:27

never done anything like that up

19:29

to that point. up to And my

19:31

wife wasn't there. And I joined

19:33

without consulting her, her, which which was, I

19:36

don't recommend doing that, it but it

19:38

was probably one of the best

19:40

decisions we've ever made because it's just

19:42

amazing what an investment in yourself with .com is

19:44

done for us. for us. You know,

19:46

changes after like an exit or freeing

19:48

exit or anything like that.

19:50

or anything is our life different

19:52

from joining Capitalism .com? joining It's

19:56

our our, it's our therapy. It's Ryan is known as

19:58

known as the entrepreneur. newer's

20:00

therapist for a reason, a and it's

20:02

because because when you talk to him, he

20:04

gets you out of your own

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head. your But if you join, join, this

20:08

is a proven system. mean, people

20:11

have gone through this. And they've through

20:13

this come out the other side come

20:15

If you side this join this you don't

20:17

get results, results, up here. It's not, it it

20:19

has nothing to do with the course.

20:21

It has nothing to do with the

20:23

people that are people .com. It has to

20:25

do with you. You need to look

20:27

in the mirror You need to look in the mirror because you

20:29

can can get the exact same course

20:31

as the person sitting right next to

20:33

you and you guys will both have

20:35

two different results will and it's all because

20:38

the mentality that you take into the

20:40

course. If you go into it or

20:42

joining the into the course. If you go into it

20:44

with a negative the that this isn't going

20:46

to work. It's not going to work for

20:48

you, so don't join a negative if you

20:50

go in ready to go, to it's going

20:52

to work. It worked for me. for you. It's

20:54

going to work for you for It's just

20:56

you've got to you got to steer or jump over

20:58

the mental hurdles believe me, you me, you will

21:00

hit roadblocks like you wouldn't believe in your

21:02

in life personal life and in your business

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life. that's what that's what this is here for.

21:07

It's here to help you get through

21:09

those. those. If you found you found value in this

21:11

podcast and you're ready to go deeper, here are

21:13

three resources where we can help you. you. One, you

21:15

you can grab my book, months to 1 million

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on on Audible or Amazon. over It has

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over a thousand reviews, it's and it's

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the playbook to building a seven -figure business.

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business. you can join

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our community of entrepreneurs who are

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following who plan to build a 1

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% net worth by building businesses

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and investing the profits. the You can

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get plugged in at capitalism .com

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slash slash one. And third, if you're If

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you're looking to go deeper and

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build a seven figure business that

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you can sell, you you can

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work closely with us inside the

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capitalism incubator. And you can get

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on the waiting list and find

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out what we do and at out .com

21:53

capitalism.com/.com slash inc. slash inc.