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on March 18th to 20th.

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We're hosting one of the

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going to be a ton

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of fun. I'm going to

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be there hosting a variety

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of different panels. I'll be

0:23

doing a fireside chat with

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Muhammad Alarion, a different macro

0:28

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Joseph Wang, and we're also going

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right, welcome back to another

0:39

round up edition of Ford

0:41

Guidance and joining us this week

0:44

is special guest Tony Greer, the

0:46

man himself, honored to have you

0:48

man, what's going on? Oh, I

0:51

feel like you're too kind, man,

0:53

you guys are the best. How are

0:55

we doing TG? We're trying to stay

0:57

alive, man, same as every other

0:59

day. Oh yeah. Last night after I shut

1:02

her down, I was like. I'm drained.

1:04

The last two weeks of trading

1:06

have just been locked in from

1:08

open to close. Yeah, you can't

1:10

explain it to people that don't

1:12

take risk, you know, and I

1:14

kind of can divide it with

1:16

that line right down the middle.

1:18

It's like people that don't take

1:21

risk during the day and people

1:23

who do, man, the Friday bell is like

1:25

a church bell for me, right? We

1:27

don't get that enough working remote,

1:30

you know, like the commodity of

1:32

going down with... hanging out. Yeah,

1:34

sliding down the dinosaurs back

1:36

after work, man. We missed

1:38

that now with everybody working

1:40

from home. That's true. That was

1:42

a lot of fun, man. I did that

1:45

for years. That's what this is for.

1:47

This is what we live for, you

1:49

know? Like, this has been a blast.

1:51

I mean, obviously, you know, we're

1:53

just strung out exhausted by the

1:55

Friday clothes, but it's been fun,

1:57

man. It's been high octane. high

1:59

vol environment that's that's just the

2:01

way it's built. Seventh straight day

2:04

is it of over 1% move

2:06

on the S&P or seventh or

2:08

eighth? Yeah man you know after

2:10

that really really you know after

2:12

that kind of vol compression up

2:14

at the highs you know we

2:16

failed backed off hard a couple

2:18

of big breakdowns that fucking tariff

2:20

tantrum the whole thing so. You

2:23

know, the odds are stacked where in

2:25

the past when this has happened stocks

2:27

are higher a couple of months later

2:29

and that's kind of still how I'm

2:31

playing it Quinn I'm not I'm not

2:33

able to give up that ghost just

2:36

yet I've given back some money for

2:38

sure But I'm still a thing positioned

2:40

to capitalize if there's a bounce from

2:42

here. Let's just leave it at that.

2:44

Yeah, maybe maybe to give listeners a

2:46

so last week we had Jim Carson

2:48

Carson on who has been you know

2:50

very impression with his views on the

2:53

overall setup here, sort of starting from

2:55

the top down macro and getting into

2:57

some of the options and volatility and

2:59

inflation outlook. And then, you know, we

3:01

want to bring you on TG. We've

3:03

been, you know, going back and forth

3:05

on markets, you know, we want to

3:07

get into Bitcoin, want to get into

3:10

some of the sectors, leadership changes and

3:12

just kind of what we're seeing. But

3:14

I'll start with, you know, you were

3:16

spot on. Bitcoin from the fall for

3:18

you know, you're not as deep as

3:20

some of our listeners in the crypto

3:22

space but but saw that breakout pre

3:24

even pre-election and then there was that

3:27

head fake with the with the fake

3:29

news Iowa poll and and you know

3:31

pull back in and you caught it

3:33

right out of the gates and and

3:35

started to get little bearish as well

3:37

and exiting up in the in the

3:39

mid to high 90s which it we

3:41

you know traded notes had had similar

3:44

views and it just. lot of damage

3:46

to that chart. What do you kind

3:48

of think of thinking from here on

3:50

that? The chart's broken, you know, for

3:52

now, you know, because it's one of

3:54

those things that like, you know, kind

3:56

of like in video, like when it

3:58

spends that much time distributing at the

4:01

highs and making, you know, kind of

4:03

first new higher highs and and then

4:05

kind of lower highs and really distributes

4:07

over time and then has a large

4:09

magnitude breakdown. I've been saying you still

4:11

got to sell rallies to 92.95K. A

4:13

measured move out target that I have

4:16

is like 70K on the downside. I

4:18

still think we can get there. We

4:20

have to get through this, you know,

4:22

this whole Trump comment about the strategic.

4:24

you know, crypto reserve or however you

4:26

want to call it, strategic digital asset

4:28

reserve. But to me, it broke the

4:30

range, it's coiling, and there's going to

4:33

be one more move lower, and it

4:35

kind of might rhyme with what's going

4:37

on in the stock market, I don't

4:39

know, but to stick to Bitcoin, what's

4:41

amazing is that when you're not as

4:43

emotionally involved, as you say as all

4:45

the people that are hardcore crypto traders,

4:47

when you can look at Bitcoin objectively.

4:50

and say like oh that's a chart

4:52

breakout in November I can go with

4:54

that because my stop loss can be

4:56

right here you know and I'm not

4:58

comfortable in Bitcoin so I had to

5:00

find times where the stop loss can

5:02

be like this small and you get

5:04

a great run out of it and

5:07

then it runs out of gas and

5:09

you could say like any other trade

5:11

you should be saying if you're not

5:13

emotionally attached to it you could say

5:15

okay this trade is still in okay

5:17

shape but it's stop performing It stopped

5:19

making new highs, sentiment is undoubtedly positive,

5:21

and the egg timer on my position

5:24

has got to go off any minute,

5:26

ding, where I say, okay, it's been

5:28

long enough, if this thing isn't to

5:30

keep going, it's time to sell and

5:32

move on to something that is. So

5:34

that's kind of how it worked out,

5:36

and I got extremely lucky in Bitcoin,

5:38

I'm not trying to to to toot

5:41

my horn, I'm just saying like when

5:43

you're not... You know reading every piece

5:45

of data that comes out and just

5:47

kind of fielding it It's not as

5:49

impossible to trade. So I'm trying to

5:51

get better at it and enjoy the

5:53

volatility. That's all Yeah, it's an unbelievable

5:55

instrument from to have in the toolkit,

5:58

right? I mean the moves you can

6:00

like you said you can pin those

6:02

risk reward when they line up take

6:04

two big fat pitches a year and

6:06

you know, in the rest of the

6:08

time, just kind of, kind of watch

6:10

it with like nausea, you know, and

6:12

thank God that you're not involved. You

6:15

know, that feels so good to be

6:17

flat Bitcoin, just being like, oh my

6:19

God, people are getting mangled and I'm

6:21

not. It's awesome to watch, you know,

6:23

like, I have funny little anecdote out,

6:25

Sheriff, is, um, I love put, you

6:27

know, when you really have a non-consensus

6:29

view and there's no one that gets

6:32

sort of. their undies in a bundle

6:34

like like the crypto crowd when especially

6:36

when you go gets a grain but

6:38

it was a couple weeks ago and

6:40

then even most recently last week I

6:42

think when I had a pretty bearish

6:44

take and got so much heat you

6:46

know and then obviously perfect sentiment indicator

6:49

we dip pretty hard after and I

6:51

actually put a similar one out yesterday

6:53

that was just talking about how this

6:55

strategic reserve is probably a disappointment to

6:57

most and a nothing burger and actually,

6:59

unlike the other ones, there is way

7:01

too many people that agreed with me,

7:04

and we're replying in unison. So it

7:06

sort of made me think, oh, maybe

7:08

we need to bounce a little higher

7:10

to shake people out of their easy

7:12

shorts, and maybe we are due for

7:14

another revisit of the mid 90s, because

7:16

those sentiment indicators are just unbelievable. Yeah,

7:18

I want to take that framework and

7:21

apply to equities, because it's been really

7:23

interesting just to see it over the

7:25

past couple months where Obviously, you know,

7:27

from the inauguration date until a few

7:29

weeks ago, we were in this euphoric

7:31

vibe and this narrative of, you know,

7:33

it's just going to be gangbusters. And

7:35

then the narrative has flipped recently, where

7:38

I'm seeing more and more, there was

7:40

this denial initially about how, okay, you

7:42

know, they're going to get some short-term

7:44

pain for long-term gain in these type

7:46

of ideas. And now we've kind of

7:48

flipped the script and we're getting into

7:50

the recession, How are you guys managing

7:52

like the expectation of that narrative and

7:55

where the where the price is at

7:57

now? I am so embracing. Felix, that

7:59

narrative about the pending recession, man. You

8:01

know, I mean, okay, it may happen,

8:03

it may not happen. It's interesting. What's

8:05

the most important thing for me is

8:07

that we're gonna have this period where

8:09

the recession grows are gonna come out

8:12

of the woodwork and they're gonna stomp

8:14

their table, that we're about to tank

8:16

the economy, and the narrative is gonna

8:18

get such that the bond market is

8:20

gonna keep rallying, rates are gonna go

8:22

down, and at some point, this equity

8:24

sell off. is going to end because

8:26

Europe will have divested from the US

8:29

all they want from the tariff situation

8:31

and hedge funds have made the biggest

8:33

sales that they've ever made in a

8:35

short period of time and they're going

8:37

to be flat and they're going to

8:39

be sitting around looking like this and

8:41

all the long only guys that have

8:43

been sitting here trying to buy these

8:46

large magnitude bids for their 20 year

8:48

time horizon are going to go, hey

8:50

where do all the sellers go? You

8:52

know what I mean? And so, I

8:54

mean, there may be like, you know,

8:56

I'm not saying that today is the

8:58

bottom or something like that, but that's

9:00

going to happen. I got a feeling

9:03

that Bissent is going to manage us

9:05

sort of maybe along the edges of

9:07

a recession where we don't go into

9:09

some kind of a collapse during the

9:11

Trump administration. Eventually, some of the things

9:13

that he's doing that are going to

9:15

be good for the country are going

9:17

to filter into. sentiment, mood, earnings. And

9:20

the one thing that I could look

9:22

back at is that at least, you

9:24

know, we had this big telegraph of

9:26

these Trump trades from November through February,

9:28

right? And the, from November to December

9:30

was people trying to get on board,

9:32

not knowing what was going on. Then

9:34

January to Fed to me was like

9:37

first of the year allocations. We got

9:39

to be in the markets. They're about

9:41

to make new highs. Everybody's bullish. And

9:43

we ran into the tariff blender, right?

9:45

Where Trump is making comments, he's starting

9:47

new tariffs, he's canceling them the next

9:49

day. I mean, nobody knows what the

9:51

fuck is going on. So there's your

9:54

volatility spike, right? Trump is basically announcing

9:56

the S&P. probably comes with a volatility

9:58

premium as I shoot my mouth off

10:00

for the next four years. So we're

10:02

learning things like that. And I think

10:04

that the market, you know, I put

10:06

it this way, it feels worse now

10:09

than at the bottom of the last

10:11

10 dips in the S&B. So I'm

10:13

not throwing in the towel on the

10:15

idea that here or within 2 to

10:17

3% of here, if I'm allowed to

10:19

have a little bit of room, is

10:21

in a buy for a 10 to

10:23

20% trade. So that's how

10:25

I'm looking at it and sentiment is

10:28

set up here. It's kind of you

10:30

know It's kind of the opposite of

10:32

what it was in crypto on when

10:34

Trump had his hand on the Bible

10:37

getting inaugurated the big crypto president and

10:39

that's the day we made the all-time

10:41

high and it shit the bed a

10:43

week a month later You know while

10:46

we're talking kind of these narratives I

10:48

one thing I found interesting Tony because

10:50

we were obviously pretty bullish the Trump

10:52

trade the night of the pre-election to

10:55

100% following. And despite how similar it

10:57

was to 2016, it still took people

10:59

a little bit of time to kind

11:01

of get up to it. And it

11:04

did happen quick in November. The move

11:06

happened. I think small caps topped a

11:08

week or 10 days after the election.

11:10

But then what I found. kind of

11:13

adding confidence to my like near term

11:15

cautious view in January and early February

11:17

February was the amount of people who

11:19

were vehemently against either him or his

11:22

policies and against the the prospect of

11:24

him being good for the market now

11:26

telling me how bullish they are. Oh

11:28

wow he's actually gonna take a different

11:31

approach he's actually like and I was

11:33

like oh this is kind of sketchy

11:35

because all these like I liked when

11:37

they were on the other side and

11:40

I knew there's people that still had

11:42

to buy and and now like you

11:44

said I think we're just seeing that

11:46

shakeout because now we're seeing the people

11:49

that are like I knew I knew

11:51

he would you know burn things to

11:53

the ground I'm you know I gave

11:55

him a shot and I knew so

11:58

you know and funny like extension of

12:00

this is one thing I know you've

12:02

been short, you know, the tan, the

12:04

clean energy solar. I'm sort of wondering

12:07

if there's a big rebound trade and

12:09

things like these where if you think

12:11

of who the buyer bases are, probably

12:13

the most, the largest TDS, you know,

12:16

cases out there might be just hoofing

12:18

this stuff left and right. I'm kind

12:20

of wondering an Elon like solar, that's

12:22

an idea. You can carry that idea.

12:25

I'm still playing. the broad the broad

12:27

view you know what you know what

12:29

solar and cannabis rhyme to me right

12:31

They're these two sectors that are incredibly

12:34

real, right? They're real, their products are

12:36

real, we can't deny that. People consume

12:38

their products, their products are positive, beneficial,

12:40

useful, across spectrums. It's like, all right,

12:43

then I got a question, how come

12:45

everybody doesn't have solar panels on their

12:47

house? Everybody. You know, and so it's

12:49

like this thing that got a chance

12:52

to take off and would have been

12:54

all the rage and like... Like Bitcoin,

12:56

the day Joe Biden had his hand

12:58

on the Bible, that was the high-end

13:01

solar stocks, and we went straight down

13:03

from there and got halved, quartered, and

13:05

whatever it else. So, I mean, I'm

13:07

gonna stick with the trend that if

13:10

we didn't... If they weren't on the

13:12

uptake then, then the money's just going

13:14

to be dead. Same as kind of

13:16

cannabis, you know, everybody get excited for

13:19

that year or two upswing. You know,

13:21

these were going to be like consumer

13:23

staple stocks and all of a sudden

13:25

the market said, oh, here comes AI.

13:28

We have no more money for cannabis

13:30

bullshit. You know, and so it's like,

13:32

you know, now like cannabis is just

13:34

left for dead. at least have on

13:37

these before where I keep lowering my

13:39

stop and look up three months later

13:41

and say damn I'm still lowering my

13:43

stop this thing is not coming back

13:46

to bite so we'll see you know

13:48

above the above a significant moving average

13:50

I'm out taking my money I'm gonna

13:52

run and we'll see if there's a

13:55

turn there. Hey everyone this episode is

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at ledger.com. All right, back to the

14:40

show. I want to get your guys'

14:42

thoughts on Europe. I've been looking into

14:44

it pretty deep this week and here's

14:46

how I'm thinking about things. Is that

14:49

you look at the Europe stocks, if

14:51

you look at the Dax, and you've

14:53

been going on game investors, quite a

14:55

bit now this year and it feels

14:58

like there's there's a lot of people

15:00

that are getting really excited about it

15:02

and it's pretty clear the early easy

15:04

money has been made there but then

15:07

you start to see these announcements come

15:09

from you know Germany's talking about a

15:11

$500 billion investment there's this fiscal unchackling

15:13

going on you know The Europe trade's

15:16

been a widow maker for a decade

15:18

now, but you start to see these

15:20

these fiscal shifts and it gets interesting.

15:22

And yes, I think the early easy

15:25

money has been made, but it feels

15:27

like, okay, if this is a secular

15:29

shift, you know, that's something you can

15:31

actually ride for a multi-year basis. How

15:34

are you guys thinking about Europe right

15:36

now? I saw way too many, like

15:38

you said, near tour, I saw way

15:40

too many, Chamoth was talking about it

15:43

this week, so I was talking about

15:45

it this week, so I was talking

15:47

about it this week, so I was

15:49

talking about it this week, this week,

15:52

so I was talking about it, this,

15:54

this, this, this, this, this, this, this,

15:56

this, I think there's a secular lower

15:58

dollar. I like being long things commodities

16:01

or other. or at least be a

16:03

positive bias towards these things that are

16:05

secular lower dollar, but near

16:07

term, the non-U.S. trade as, you

16:10

know, Europe, China, everywhere else

16:12

has gone up 20 and

16:14

large kept U.S. down 10, like

16:16

sort of looking actually

16:18

to maybe, you know, bat down

16:21

the hatches in the U.S. type

16:23

of deal. I'm looking at that

16:25

trade, like, you know, the U.S.

16:28

has been outperforming. right? Felix you

16:30

nailed it for what like 10

16:32

years it really got pronounced or

16:35

something like that right to me

16:37

that's from 30,000 feet up

16:39

as an old man that is

16:42

went right alongside with the

16:44

globalist takeover of Europe

16:46

went right alongside with

16:48

the de-industrialization of Europe right

16:50

now we're at a point

16:53

where all of a sudden

16:55

we get an America first

16:58

president and people say, oh,

17:00

this is the time to sell the

17:02

US and buy Europe, right? There will

17:04

be merit in that trade

17:06

one day. It ain't now, right?

17:08

Right now, the US is gonna

17:11

freaking, this is where the

17:13

parabola is of US outperformance.

17:15

Do you know when I'll

17:17

believe that Europe will start

17:19

catching up in the trade that

17:22

I'll be in when they change

17:24

their politics? This is going

17:26

to happen here because Trump

17:28

just turned the revolution into

17:30

green energy on its head.

17:33

He just turned putting China

17:35

at the center of the commodities

17:37

trade for wind, solar, all that

17:39

stuff on its head. So I

17:41

think that the only thing that's

17:43

going to get me to jump into

17:46

that trade is when Europe gives in

17:48

and says... We need to re-industrialize,

17:50

we need to onshore, we need to

17:52

do things to preserve ourselves like

17:54

those guys overseas are because it's working

17:57

for them. And that's what the

17:59

people want. When I see that

18:01

political change when there's a when there's

18:03

a Trump or a Polvar and in

18:05

you know in office over there Then

18:08

I'll think about buying Europe not before

18:10

Yeah, I love that framework because I

18:12

mean man, even if you just look

18:14

at the ECB like the Lagarde meeting

18:17

this week was just so much bureaucratic

18:19

stuff still going on like you compare

18:21

it that talk to like Powell and

18:23

even and especially like the fiscal side

18:26

and Scott Besson right now. And I

18:28

think you're right that that that that

18:30

vibe needs to shift first to see

18:32

any sort of like execution actually come

18:35

forth. Totally man, I mean I wouldn't

18:37

sure to spy contract against one of

18:39

those indicesices. Go ahead. I feel that

18:41

especially this entry here seems, I mean,

18:44

if you were in it in that

18:46

trade a month ago, you're sitting pretty

18:48

and maybe can be doing a lot.

18:50

But yeah, the one thing that I've

18:53

been trying to glean from this to

18:55

know whether or not like you've obviously

18:57

been in the camp that it's it's

18:59

a routine pullback, which thus far is

19:02

the case. I mean, it's maybe looked

19:04

a little more painful and been a

19:06

bit more methodical than than others. you

19:08

know sometimes in those like August 5th

19:11

or other you know geopolitical like in

19:13

April of last year events where there's

19:15

a big capitulation liquidation margin call you

19:17

you're looking around you're like okay you

19:19

can get more comfortable bidding because it

19:22

feels like a more a bigger cleansing

19:24

event you see more fear more panic

19:26

but in this cell off it's been

19:28

more methodical and wondering just how you

19:31

see the next you know a couple

19:33

weeks if We often revisit low, so

19:35

maybe it's in a week or two

19:37

or it's in a month or two.

19:40

So there's that in the back of

19:42

my mind. And then it's also like,

19:44

we did have a couple good days

19:46

of good rinsings, but it didn't feel

19:49

as climactic. Is that something that you

19:51

require to go kind of full on

19:53

bowl? Are you thinking, you know, I'm

19:55

gonna size up my spy here and

19:58

play for a bounce and maybe trim

20:00

after a couple points? look for a

20:02

retest, like how do you think about

20:04

playing that in the next few weeks?

20:07

It's a great question because the conversation

20:09

in my head has been about how

20:11

unsatisfying buying the dips have been because

20:13

we haven't had that situation where there's

20:16

an all-out pre-market spill, right? Like I

20:18

don't know if you saw my tweet

20:20

this morning, this morning as the market

20:22

was coming off with, you know, the

20:25

data heading towards the open. I'm like,

20:27

please let this thing tank 100 points

20:29

right now. like let this thing open

20:31

gap open 100 points lower and then

20:34

then I want to put my chips

20:36

on the table and I'm going to

20:38

walk away from the screens for four

20:40

hours you know what I mean with

20:43

this when you're kind of grappling at

20:45

the lows grappling at the lows like

20:47

you know it's not over you know

20:49

but what may be over is that

20:52

you know the one thing that's major

20:54

for me is that we keep carving

20:56

new lows in the S&P and the

20:58

VIX's like like 25 and back down.

21:01

25 and back there like so people

21:03

are hedged it's obvious that in that

21:05

in all that put volume things like

21:07

that the sentiment readings are all historic

21:10

red line as bearish as can be

21:12

so the one thing that's on my

21:14

mind that that might add to this

21:16

conversation is you know Trump obviously going

21:19

for the campaign and into his second

21:21

administration never said a word about the

21:23

S&P stuck out like a sore thumb

21:25

it turns out that he knows The

21:27

tariff conversation is going to derail, what

21:30

did he see going into before he

21:32

said a word about the tariffs? Market's

21:34

just kind of chugging along at the

21:36

high. So he knows that the conversation

21:39

is going to derail that somehow, has

21:41

to, and that's why he didn't say

21:43

anything about the stock market. So now

21:45

my question, the conversation in my head

21:48

is, okay, he knew that was coming.

21:50

Is that it? You know what I

21:52

mean? Like, he's shaking up the tariff

21:54

conversation. Nobody knows which way to look

21:57

at, which means pricing peak volatility over

21:59

this. And... the S&P backed off 7%

22:01

and I'm wondering if that's it. Am

22:04

I allowed to wonder if that was

22:06

it? You know what I mean? Like,

22:08

so, you know, when the risk reward

22:11

lines up and then you get all

22:13

these other stars aligning the AII bowls,

22:15

you know, down into the teens, the

22:17

bears is up into the 30-year top

22:19

of the range AII bear index, right?

22:21

We've got these cluster of tick index

22:23

extremes at the lows, right, around 1,

22:26

minus 1,400 and greater. People are visibly

22:28

blowing their brains out. It's just a

22:30

question of how far it's going to

22:32

go. If it starts to

22:34

turn out that things bounce from here,

22:36

it doesn't show, I'm not going to

22:38

put my money on the fact that

22:40

we found the bottom yet, because like

22:43

you said, we haven't had that capitulation,

22:45

so. feels like maybe there's more to

22:47

come, but we're probably going to still

22:49

look back on this and find that

22:51

to be either a short-term or a

22:53

learned long-term buying opportunity. I just don't

22:55

know if we found the low yet.

22:57

Yeah, I was just going to say,

22:59

I feel like, you know, I jokingly

23:01

tweeted this yesterday, but like, you know,

23:03

do we just wait until we get

23:05

the headline for Trump that just says

23:08

buy? Because I feel like there's basically

23:10

two routes we can go here, you

23:12

know, you know, get the hero, bottom

23:14

pick and fade the sentiment like you're

23:16

talking about here knowing that the other

23:18

side is coming and it will improve

23:20

like you know I think all three

23:22

of us agree that a recession is

23:24

entirely unlikely here so you know you

23:26

got to be ready to catch that

23:28

eventually or you just wait for the

23:30

narrative to shift. You got to be

23:33

ready to catch that eventually or you

23:35

just wait for the narrative to shift

23:37

from Besson and Trump or they move

23:39

from you know like just in the

23:41

last one four hours Besson is talking

23:43

about there is no Trump put. And

23:45

then you just write it when it's

23:47

time. totally like you imagine if Trump

23:49

comes out and says boy you know

23:51

that seven percent pullback wasn't too bad

23:53

on the tariff talk right like and

23:55

you know he would be like you

23:58

know admitting that he like got it

24:00

all out and this is it we're

24:02

gonna talk about 25% with them 10%

24:04

with them and we're gonna go back

24:06

and forth and the market's gonna be

24:08

unhappy sorry think about all the dollars

24:10

that are gonna fall back into the

24:12

US pocket think about all the onsuring

24:14

of industry there's already carmakers makers announcing

24:16

okay fine bill to high and die

24:18

in the United States. You know what

24:20

I mean? Like, there's stuff going on

24:23

left and right that's going to move

24:25

like glacially slow, you know, and so

24:27

that's the thing that's going to really

24:29

contribute to the US economy. I can

24:31

see a situation where that takes years

24:33

to start clicking. But I think it's

24:35

going to click. And if that's the

24:37

case, then you're going to want to

24:39

be buying one of these dips in

24:41

the stock market. I'll tell you that.

24:43

a big chop fest for large parts

24:45

of the year because I think it

24:48

could frustrate I mean this has been

24:50

frustrating for many but I think it

24:52

could continue in the sense that okay

24:54

there is this digestion as we move

24:56

from you know a handout public government

24:58

led economic growth you know environment to

25:00

private sector productive you know innovation deregulation

25:02

and to me that's not a one

25:04

quarter thing that's like a three four

25:06

quarter thing and you know, that we're

25:08

hearing that in their rhetoric. And so

25:10

you might have a case where, okay,

25:13

earnings maybe slow a little bit, the

25:15

S&P was really, you know, at its

25:17

kind of top of the range valuations,

25:19

and we just need to digest this,

25:21

but it doesn't mean, you know, it's

25:23

2008 crash coming, and so you might

25:25

just get three 10% pullbacks this year

25:27

with right back up, and, you know,

25:29

just this big overall digestion period, and

25:31

that's what, because by the time that.

25:33

Uber Bears get back in. We're probably

25:35

like I kind of vision us back

25:38

to the highs. You know, maybe we

25:40

back off again. Some some sort of

25:42

just more difficult environment than up only

25:44

that we've had for the last three

25:46

years. So let me push back on

25:48

that a little bit. Right. Because I

25:50

think that we are in the seventh

25:52

or eighth inning of squeezing through. The

25:56

lead in you know, there was an

25:58

explosion in activity and breakouts as soon

26:00

as Trump got ahead of Kamala in

26:02

the polls in October, right? Money was

26:04

coming in. There was money coming in

26:07

for all of the anticipation and then

26:09

Trump won and then like there was

26:11

money coming in right after he won.

26:13

That was December. Then we had money

26:15

coming in for first of the year

26:18

allocation. All that stuff is getting rinsed.

26:20

The market's dealing with, okay, this guy's

26:22

the secretary of this, that's gonna mean

26:24

this, this sector's gotta do this, this

26:26

is gonna blow up and change now,

26:29

and like, the whole tectonic plate is

26:31

shifting. And then, when that's over, the

26:33

bull market is gonna resume and it's

26:35

gonna go up up and away and

26:37

it's gonna be from the bottom left

26:40

to the top right hand side of

26:42

your screen for several years after we

26:44

get through this volatility period. That's what

26:46

I think could happen. And I just

26:48

think that we're, and I didn't put

26:50

me to push back about the idea

26:53

that there's going to be some volatility.

26:55

I think that we're nearing the end

26:57

of that volatility and in by the

26:59

second quarter, find a low and start

27:01

the next leg of the rally. Got

27:04

it. That's just what I think. I

27:06

love the, you know, independent thought. I

27:08

haven't heard that take. It just made

27:10

it up. And I'm just kidding. the

27:12

timing of stuff that I like to

27:15

the dog walks are good because I

27:17

take the the real deep just you

27:19

know 30,000 foot view I don't have

27:21

the last sales in front of me

27:23

and so I could say all right

27:26

what's gone on no no like over

27:28

the last decade what's gone on you

27:30

know and think about it that way

27:32

that usually helps. Hey everyone this episode

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security today at ledger.com. All right, back

28:16

to the show. I want to shift

28:18

gears and hear your thoughts on the

28:20

bond market right now, contextualize it by

28:23

the jobs report that we got this

28:25

morning. The headline number came in a

28:27

bit soft below consensus, but it felt

28:29

like going into it. The whisper number

28:31

felt much lower. We had the 80P

28:33

print that missed pretty significantly. A lot

28:36

of, a lot of doom whispers there.

28:38

The unemployment rate did tick up a

28:40

little bit. But overall, it was interesting

28:42

to see that, you know, mixed bag

28:44

results compared to the bond market price

28:47

action. And, you know, it's been all

28:49

over, it changes every two seconds right

28:51

now. It feels like, you know, yields

28:53

cratered pretty significantly for what felt like.

28:55

the expectation for something that was weaker

28:58

than what actually came in. We've seen

29:00

that reverse now, but yeah, how are

29:02

you guys thinking about the bond market

29:04

as it stands here? I mean, it's,

29:06

I don't see it as easy of

29:09

a trade here. And I think what

29:11

also matters is, is what, how your

29:13

position the rest of the book, because

29:15

the correlations, you know, you got to

29:17

be careful, right, because we're in now

29:19

what looks to be in a risk

29:22

off scenario bonds, rallying, yields, yields down.

29:24

And it has been fairly mechanical in

29:26

terms of yields up, stocks up, yields

29:28

down, stocks down. So I'm kind of

29:30

observing here. I caught some of the,

29:33

I caught a big chunk of the

29:35

long two year move and covered that

29:37

at 39 because it's like, all right,

29:39

how much is the Fed gonna cut

29:41

really in the next few months? And

29:44

sort of wait and see. I would

29:46

love to get another. Yeah, oil, like

29:48

again, looking at the inflation outlook to

29:50

me, oil, bottom of the range, I

29:52

kind of think next week's a soft

29:55

CPI. That's why I'm sort of feeling

29:57

a bounce here in broader risk, like

29:59

we've been. selling off for days straight.

30:01

And I do think next Wednesday is a soft

30:03

print and kind of gives people, gives the

30:06

bulls hope. We just had a good labor

30:08

data. We just had what I think will

30:10

be a soft CPI. So those are sort

30:12

of the makings of what a turn in

30:14

the data and a positive inflection would

30:16

be. So I'm sort of just observing

30:18

on the bond market, you know, sort

30:21

of taking Bessen and Trump at their

30:23

word that they have a plan and want

30:25

to get yields down. And I think

30:27

that's tough to fight to fight right now. Very

30:30

interesting. Let me start by saying that,

30:32

you know, I don't I don't have

30:34

a skin in the game in the

30:36

bond market so my opinion is worth

30:38

nothing, right? And I'm not an economist

30:40

either, but like if I look at

30:43

this bond market from kind of the

30:45

same way as we're going to go

30:47

through this regime change, where the new

30:49

regime wants lower rates, lower dollar. probably

30:51

going to figure out how to

30:54

get it there. What they're swimming

30:56

upstream against now is what's left

30:58

over from the last regime, which

31:00

is I still think a lot

31:02

of residual inflation, you know,

31:05

that's still on its way down

31:07

towards, you know, I guess 2% or something

31:09

like that, and I think that the

31:12

combination of Bessen's desire for lower rates

31:14

and the view on the oil market and

31:16

what I think could happen. I mean if

31:18

the oil breaks the bottom of the range

31:20

at 62 bucks and nose dives, I don't

31:23

see why we can't go down and trade

31:25

in the 50s for a little while, which

31:27

should take the sting out of the inflationary

31:29

side of the equation for me and give

31:31

me a chance to get bullish bonds if

31:34

Bessent is going to keep rates low.

31:36

So that's just one scenario that I

31:38

have. And like I said, I don't

31:40

take risk in the treasury market anymore.

31:42

I won't say that I've gotten killed

31:44

or done well or whatever, but when

31:46

I use it as a speedometer against

31:48

my equity trades, I can be a

31:50

more profitable trader. And there's a whole,

31:53

there's a whole podcast that can go

31:55

on behind that, but I use those

31:57

as like sort of dials on my

31:59

speedometer and. just admit that I'm an

32:01

old school equity guy. Yeah, I think

32:03

that's, I mean, it's definitely been a,

32:05

we've been in this period where the

32:08

bond market kind of chops around and

32:10

then makes a big move in these

32:12

risk off lately, it's been down, you

32:14

know, after the bottom and September is

32:16

screaming higher, plus Trump victory, repricing growth.

32:18

And it seems like it's like a

32:20

three, like a three times a year

32:23

trade, really fat pitch and, you know,

32:25

you're doing a whole lot of nothing

32:27

in between. Yeah. Tony, what was your

32:29

take on the OPEC announcement that came

32:31

up this week where they're finally increasing

32:33

supply there? Is that just driving your

32:35

view of lower oil? Yeah, and I'm

32:38

not like a, I'm not like a

32:40

chest pounding bear. I just, you know,

32:42

that's, that, that's, I don't have a

32:44

position in oil and I haven't had

32:46

one in the longest time. And that's,

32:48

that's, that sucks for me because I

32:50

can have a, I can have the

32:53

most risk I can possibly tolerate in

32:55

the oil market and sleep like a

32:57

baby. So I'm really sad that there

32:59

hasn't been an opportunity that's lined up

33:01

in my mind because that's where I

33:03

like to send it in. So I

33:06

literally haven't had a risk on an

33:08

oil market in six months. So what

33:10

I look at the chart and I'm

33:12

like, okay, if I'm gonna be betting

33:14

money here at the tables, as this

33:16

thing is crashing, this thing crashes through

33:18

the bottom of the range here. Right

33:21

if there is that economic slowdown the

33:23

numbers get a little weak You know,

33:25

there's a little more production here another

33:27

OPEC output You know, I mean the

33:29

range bottom break and that's deflationary and

33:31

I just try to think of like

33:33

what that can mean for the rest

33:36

of the market right? It's probably good

33:38

for there You know, bullish bond scenario,

33:40

good for their lower dollar scenario, probably

33:42

helps stocks not implode if rates are

33:44

going down. So I feel like they

33:46

got to try to, you know, wash

33:48

one hand with the other a little

33:51

bit. That's fair to say, Felix. Yeah,

33:53

it's so bullish if oil breaks down

33:55

because then you can have Besson and

33:57

Trump start ragging on Paul to bring

33:59

the front end down. And Tony, are

34:01

you still doing? in the little shell,

34:03

but the oil ground up. Yes, I

34:06

am. I love those. Yeah, they're pretty

34:08

good. We have really good guests. I

34:10

just interviewed Joseph Shachter yesterday, and that

34:12

guy is a fountain of information. Do

34:14

you get his reports? No, no, no,

34:16

no. I'm on this email list, but

34:18

yeah, they're good. Do you like them?

34:21

Yeah, I haven't subscribed, but they're timely.

34:23

Like he actually just sent out a

34:25

buy report on a buy report on

34:27

crude and a number of other equities,

34:29

which. That's what I wanted to do,

34:31

especially at the, you know, future's positioning

34:34

got down way lows. It's like, I

34:36

sort of expected a, you know, a

34:38

Trump-bescent deal with the Saudis in Russia

34:40

in terms of bringing more output. So

34:42

I'm, I have a little bit more

34:44

sort of fundamental bias long oil here

34:46

and in quote-unquote inflation protection, but. Yeah,

34:49

it's hard to fight that chart. It's

34:51

pretty ugly. You just took the words

34:53

out of my mouth. I was like,

34:55

he, Joseph gave a really bullish, a

34:57

compelling, bullish scenario yesterday, outlined that he

34:59

had a couple of Canadian E&Ps that

35:01

were trading at absurd prices for him

35:04

that were triggering like, buy, this is

35:06

like a five star buy. And I'm

35:08

like. Fuck, I can't get over this

35:10

flat bottom in the chart. If we

35:12

break this, this thing's going down 20

35:14

bucks. I don't care what anybody, you

35:16

know what I mean? So, and I'm

35:19

not arguing with him, I hope that

35:21

he's right, he's an outstanding individual in

35:23

the markets, I'm not fighting his view

35:25

at all. I'm just like low-hanging fruit

35:27

for a trader is the bottom of

35:29

the range, and the range blows out,

35:31

and everybody piles in short. So I

35:34

have no idea what to think what

35:36

to think about it, I'm on guard

35:38

for his bullet scenario to play scenario

35:40

to play. Yeah, the one thing I

35:42

have liked about buying crude futures in

35:44

the last year and a half, even

35:46

though it's not been a pretty momentum

35:49

market, is there's, you know, you're getting

35:51

a positive roll yield for basically consistently

35:53

the last like year and a half.

35:55

So if you are bottom pick in

35:57

that range and you're buying mid 60s

35:59

and selling mid to high 70s and

36:02

collecting. in like a two to eight

36:04

percent annualized roll yield. It's like, it's

36:06

interesting. It's compelling because it's super compelling.

36:08

That's such a great point, Quinn. It's

36:10

super compelling because we haven't gotten, there's

36:12

no trade for the oil trader, for

36:14

the massive oil arb guys, like the,

36:17

and the spec guys, I mean, like

36:19

when, when oil's going, like when, when

36:21

oil's going down, they're put it in

36:23

shoeboxes and put it on a float

36:25

and send it out on the barge

36:27

that make the spreads, you know what

36:29

I mean? When there's nobody in there,

36:32

there's nobody in there. you know when

36:34

positioning gets too long you know there's

36:36

about to be a rug pole in

36:38

the spreads you know what I mean

36:40

at some point so that's a great

36:42

point where they're kind of just in

36:44

this natural zone right now and they're

36:47

not that affected by this enormous spec

36:49

position so that's a great great way

36:51

to whizzle way into a potentially winning

36:53

long oil position so yeah buys you

36:55

a little margin of safety oh maybe

36:57

on hard positive carries a beautiful thing

36:59

Yeah, it is. And two, you know,

37:02

through 22 and 23, I know we're

37:04

in maybe a little slower growth environment

37:06

in a different regime, but it was

37:08

the best hedge in the world in

37:10

22 and 23 for risk. So it's

37:12

like, you know, we're clearly in a

37:14

different environment there, but that hasn't left

37:17

the back of my mind. Like I'm

37:19

looking for that regime shift again is

37:21

the potential red flag. So that's why

37:23

I'm sort of positively biased towards. having

37:25

that tool. Dude, if you would have

37:27

told me, if you would have told

37:30

me that Bitcoin was going to go

37:32

from 100K to 80K, the S&P is

37:34

going to go from 6200 to 5700

37:36

and oil's going to stay 65 minutes

37:38

70, I would have been like, no

37:40

way, dude, they're going to mash this

37:42

shit out of, you know what I

37:45

mean? And this thing ain't going anywhere.

37:47

Yeah, yeah, it's a weird contrast of

37:49

good fundamentals, but just dead money for

37:51

a while. Yeah. Tony what what sub

37:53

sectors are you fired up on for

37:55

equity if that's the dead money over

37:57

there right now so I'm you know

38:00

I'm doing by the charts man you

38:02

know there's there's I've been I've been

38:04

in the software sector since Mark Andriesin

38:06

wrote an article in the journal in

38:08

2011 called software is eating the world

38:10

and I trade around that position just

38:12

because I'm in the flow of watching

38:15

the daily tick-talk of it right so

38:17

That's pulled all the way back into

38:19

trend, the 200 day moving average. I

38:21

mean, I think we broke them all

38:23

today, but it wouldn't be shocking for

38:25

security to, you know, trade that level,

38:27

break it, you know, mingle around it,

38:30

and then rally. So software is what

38:32

I put up, you know, today I

38:34

outlined the bullcase as best I could

38:36

in my note, and I added four

38:38

sector charts that I thought were valuable

38:40

versus their peers on a strictly technical

38:42

basis. Right? Wipe the ticker off of

38:45

it and just look at what this

38:47

thing did. You know, because I don't

38:49

want somebody yell it, come back yell,

38:51

I mean, you're sort of bullish now,

38:53

you fucking idiots? Like, dude, I'm just

38:55

doing your favor, okay, I'm talking, I'm

38:58

talking about the chart. So I put

39:00

up software, I put up industrial miners,

39:02

also pulled into a huge support level,

39:04

didn't break it sideways range, broadly speaking.

39:06

There's a couple of things that you

39:08

can line up the risk reward and

39:10

that's all I can do right can

39:13

do right now. Right, when you don't

39:15

know what's going on, it's like, okay,

39:17

what gives me a good chance to

39:19

not get my ass kicked? You know,

39:21

what's into support already? What's already gotten

39:23

the piss taken out of it? So

39:25

I came up with software, industrial miners,

39:28

airlines, and on my radar screen is

39:30

home construction. Home construction

39:32

has been, you know, it's a huge

39:34

secular bull market if you just take

39:36

a big step back. We've had a

39:38

typical pullback that looks like the range

39:41

broke, like the trend broke, like all

39:43

the rest of them, and now rates

39:45

are imploding. So every time that's been

39:47

the signal where they finally level off,

39:50

and then when rates stay down and

39:52

the stock market rallies, builders really perform.

39:54

And so that's lining up to me

39:56

as a potential trade. So I put

39:58

those. four out I put some actionable

40:01

trade items with them and I'm gonna

40:03

trade them all myself I don't care

40:05

what my newsletter readers do at this

40:07

point. I like how you in the

40:10

navigator which which folks listing should should

40:12

if they're not familiar with familiarize themselves

40:14

with Tony does an awesome job of

40:16

delivering these depression and insights but I'd

40:19

like to you frame the risk reward

40:21

because that's a lot how I view

40:23

whether it's a two-year trade or a

40:25

two-week trade, you know, framing the probability

40:27

distribution and what your levels are, what

40:30

your invalidation, both from a qualitative thesis

40:32

driven, but also a line in the

40:34

sand on the screen. And I think

40:36

you did a nice job. You have

40:39

these parts of the market that have

40:41

real tailwinds. And if, you know, maybe

40:43

you could say, baby thrown out with

40:45

the bath water. you know, looking like

40:48

good spots to take a crack. Even,

40:50

and again, even if it's a balance,

40:52

right, like we've sold off hard, you

40:54

know, you're not making any proclamations that

40:56

this is, you know, a moonshot to

40:59

all-time highs. It's like, hey, let's take

41:01

a swing here. Maybe we can clip

41:03

five points and take the win if

41:05

we want to in a week from

41:08

now. You make a great point there

41:10

because this is not a buy the

41:12

steepuke. If you get paid, you get

41:14

paid so fast that you're not afraid

41:16

to let it out. We're doing so

41:19

much sweating down here. There's so much

41:21

agony. I'm taking so many walks with

41:23

my dog. I'm losing my shit. I'm

41:25

drinking so much Red Bull. You know

41:28

what I mean? This is all got

41:30

to calm down eventually. And you get

41:32

paid. So as these things rally towards

41:34

resistance, you're like, take half. right take

41:37

half move my stop all the way

41:39

up to here and just whatever happens

41:41

right so that's that's a good point

41:43

where this stuff this will like I

41:45

wrote about that too today I was

41:48

like look man you know I'm doubling

41:50

down this will happen fast or we'll

41:52

be out by next week right So

41:54

let's just do a couple of days

41:57

of sweating like men and see what

41:59

happens. So my last thing is like

42:01

I equate it, I can't hell and

42:03

I wrote it in today's note. Everything

42:06

is a blackjack hand to me because

42:08

it's like my favorite game in the

42:10

world. I love Vegas because I love

42:12

sitting at a blackjack table. But everything

42:14

is a blackjack hand to me because

42:17

it's like my favorite game in the

42:19

world. I love Vegas because I love

42:21

sitting at a blackjack table for six

42:23

hours. I love that analogy. I think

42:26

that's important because people like people get

42:28

emotional. We're humans. It's you're you're very

42:30

you know liable to bring the P&L

42:32

the numbers the the emotion into the

42:35

game and and that's when things start

42:37

to go south. I mean you took

42:39

one on it if you take one

42:41

on the chin on a long that

42:43

that's underwater like. You have to be

42:46

analyzing what's in front of you and

42:48

kind of putting that behind. And I

42:50

love that analogy where it's, I don't

42:52

care if I'm Max Pett, but I

42:55

got to do with the odd say

42:57

here. The odd say. You know what

42:59

I mean? Hold a, you know what

43:01

I mean? Hold it, you know, that's,

43:03

that's why, by the way, you never

43:06

go sit down at a blackjack table

43:08

without enough cash. You

43:10

know, you got to be able to have

43:12

whatever you got to be able to have

43:14

ten times what you're willing to lose in

43:17

your pocket Just in case you're down a

43:19

couple of times and you got a couple

43:21

of times in the felt then you get

43:23

a pair of nines against a six You

43:25

know, I mean like you got to be

43:27

able to nine's against a six You know,

43:30

you know, I mean like you got to

43:32

be able to nine's against a six You

43:34

know what I mean like you got to

43:36

be able to do to nine's against a

43:38

six you know you know you know you've

43:40

got a six? and back down to size

43:43

down here, max long, back down to size.

43:45

You know, sometimes you're kind of flipping it

43:47

out on a bounce because you have no

43:49

confidence that it held yet, and other times

43:51

you're walking the dog and praying that it

43:54

doesn't go any lower. You know what I

43:56

mean? I gotta say, TG, though, that might

43:58

be bad advice for the crypto listeners here,

44:00

because they'll walk up to the table with

44:02

10X, their hand-sized. and they'll dump it all

44:04

on the first run. I was just gonna

44:07

say, the idea is to have the bank

44:09

roll, right? You got a playing money in

44:11

your right-hand pocket and the emergency reserve and

44:13

your left-hand pocket, and you don't ever go

44:15

to that one if you can't help, if

44:17

you can help it. Our crypto listeners will

44:20

put the full thing down and then get

44:22

some margin against it. Absolutely maniacs, man. But

44:24

I think that what's cool is, so this

44:26

thing I think is relevant. The

44:28

fact that we've seen like what's

44:31

what's the total ETF inflow isn't

44:33

it 32 billion or something like

44:35

that? That's roughly the number record

44:37

all-time record but in the first

44:39

year since they announced the ETFs

44:41

there's been like 30 billion dollars

44:43

of inflow right so my point

44:45

is they used to be the

44:47

biggest you know the biggest position

44:50

in Bitcoin was the hobbler Right?

44:52

I'm just saying, like, the most

44:54

number of dollars for that, you

44:56

know, for a lot of this

44:58

ride has been the hodler, right?

45:00

We're never selling this, etc. There's

45:02

32 billion dollars in this thing

45:04

now where I don't give a

45:06

shit what anybody says. It's a

45:09

line item on someone's P&L. People

45:11

are going to have to be

45:13

responsible for this line item. This

45:15

isn't, you know, Joe Six Pack

45:17

who had 100 grand and turned

45:19

it into whatever, a million dollars

45:21

in crypto and doesn't have to

45:23

do anything anymore. That's not the

45:25

case. You know, these people are

45:28

marked to last sale. And when

45:30

that position line item becomes too

45:32

stressful versus the portfolio of other

45:34

line items, they're gonna sell it.

45:36

They're not in it, not one,

45:38

not one entity, not one corporate

45:40

entity bought Bitcoin saying, yeah, if

45:42

this goes to zero, we're cool.

45:44

Like, you're kidding me? Like no,

45:47

seriously, like nobody's letting that 32

45:49

billion dollars evaporate. It's gonna be

45:51

cared for that 32 billion. Trust

45:53

me. So that's just my point.

45:55

The balance is changing a little

45:57

bit and I don't know this

45:59

probably still a lot more hot.

46:01

But now there are sane risk

46:03

managers involved. There are adults in

46:06

the room with long positions. And

46:08

that's all I'm saying. That's a

46:10

change. I'm not saying plus or

46:12

minus. People should realize that

46:14

if they don't, they're missing a

46:16

piece of the pot. Yeah, I

46:18

think the market structure over the

46:21

last year and a half since

46:23

ETF's launch has proven that in

46:25

spades. This one has blown up

46:27

every ounce of that in. many

46:29

ways in terms of which assets

46:32

outperform, okay, Bitcoin runs and this

46:34

part of the market runs and

46:36

it's this, as if it's this God-given,

46:39

you know, truth in reality

46:41

and, you know, the ETFs

46:43

and market structure and equities

46:45

are risk off, that's going to get

46:47

sold too, you know, so it's, I

46:49

think it's been a wake-up call for

46:51

many and just, it's a maturing

46:53

thing, it's good. It is, it is, you

46:55

know why, because the guys now, when I sold.

46:57

newsletter. I was like, all right, it's not doing

47:00

anything, but the egg timer's up, this is up,

47:02

this is up, I'm selling it. We took 35%

47:04

or whatever, I'm gone. People are like, do, do,

47:06

do, do, do, do, do. You don't, you don't

47:08

get it. I understand that you sold it.

47:10

Okay, that's fine, but let me explain. That's

47:12

not how this works. And so to your

47:14

point, you go back to him now, and they have

47:17

a conversation about that, and they have

47:19

a conversation about that, and they have a

47:21

conversation about that, and you just look at

47:23

them like this, and you just look at them

47:25

like this. I

47:28

know. So I'm just saying, like, you know, they're

47:30

learning now that like, huh, fuck, I think

47:32

I've told them four times now, you don't

47:34

understand. It's like the sign that the thing's

47:36

about to go down. As soon as everybody

47:38

attacks me with you, you don't understand. So,

47:40

funny story, right? I've always been a big

47:43

critic of that. It feels like, you

47:45

know, every asset gets to have that

47:47

fast money correlation thing. And then Bitcoin

47:49

is the special thing that has special

47:51

worlds to it. And, you know, it's

47:54

God's given right for it to hit

47:56

150,000. It's just predetermined. I've seen this

47:58

before, dude. I've seen enduring the dot-com

48:00

bubble, there were... that we know and

48:03

you just look at the person

48:05

like. Do we? Why not? And

48:07

next thing you know, like you

48:09

see this internet stock plunging through

48:11

20 in 2000, you know, in

48:13

2002, and you're like, boy, I

48:16

hope that guy got out, but

48:18

I bet you he didn't, right?

48:20

Because when you think you can't

48:22

get below 100, you're in shock

48:24

when it trades 85. So that's

48:27

the kind of religion that we

48:29

had in Bitcoin for quite a

48:31

while, but I don't think it's

48:33

there anymore. No. Yeah. Yeah, it's

48:35

being shaken shaken shaken out. sectors

48:37

you like, but what I was

48:40

looking for in this downturn is

48:42

like knowing what's going to perform

48:44

coming out is like the relative

48:46

strength idea and seeing if there

48:48

would be any leadership changes, which

48:51

is why I want to lean

48:53

towards your side of the bullish

48:55

ledger, because with this not being

48:57

done on a medium horizon, because

48:59

there wasn't that I could. see

49:01

a real change in leadership. It

49:04

wasn't like, you know, tech sold

49:06

off, but commodities and energy went

49:08

higher or any sort of big

49:10

structural things like that. And so

49:12

I'm kind of wondering if you

49:15

think invidious leads us out or

49:17

if you think it's software or

49:19

you still think SamMise are kind

49:21

of a funding funding. I do,

49:23

I do. I still think that

49:25

the market overly broadly speaking is

49:28

just like overly long those and

49:30

that was the one call that

49:32

I've gotten right at that I

49:34

thought that sector would be a

49:36

source of funds whether it came

49:38

at the expense of the whole

49:41

tape I don't know but whatever

49:43

the SMEs were source of funds

49:45

they went down so at least

49:47

that kind of idea was right

49:49

but when I look at like

49:52

you know look at what happened

49:54

this week and the most volatile

49:56

week we've had you know with

49:58

this damage is all aside from

50:00

cannabis because it's open, but this

50:02

damage is all, it's all techie

50:05

stuff. It's cloud storage, semiconductors, financials

50:07

got wallop this week, and then

50:09

there's, you know, airlines that also

50:11

got wallop this week, but some

50:13

of the other stuff didn't do

50:16

as bad, you know what I

50:18

mean? Like there's positive sectors in

50:20

home construction, gold miners are positive.

50:23

social media is positive health care is

50:25

positive so there's a couple of redeeming

50:27

qualities to say that it's not an

50:29

all-out market crash anyway yeah I know

50:31

I think that makes sense nice yeah

50:33

they be you know like if this

50:35

was if this were going to be

50:37

an S&P crash I'll say this on

50:39

a week like this if the S&P

50:41

was going to crash all the sectors

50:44

in my sector watch would be negative

50:46

this week and bleeding you know what

50:48

I mean all of them it's not

50:50

like that it's a clear you know

50:52

performance band You know, so that's why

50:54

I don't see a crash happening and

50:56

I can at least think that buying

50:58

the S&P broadly speaking is okay right

51:00

now. Yeah, I was kind of, that

51:02

was the other thing, I was kind

51:04

of waiting for gold to start getting

51:06

clip too, to, that would be a

51:09

day, you know, I want to be

51:11

buying, right, when everything gets thrown out,

51:13

but we haven't had that yet. It's

51:15

still rotational, it's not pukeage. to commodity

51:17

you know like like we would have

51:19

hoped for the the dollars off what

51:21

three and a half percent this week

51:23

Bloomberg commodities index is up two percent

51:25

and that's with oil going down yeah

51:27

you know like there's there's money going

51:29

into other things there's other trades happening

51:31

there's other breakouts so i think the

51:34

idea is not to overstay your welcome

51:36

in too many trades right yeah good

51:38

good advice always yeah all right My

51:40

last question for both of you for

51:42

parting words here, what is your one

51:44

tip to keep your emotional composure when

51:46

Vola is this high? Dog walking. With

51:48

the with the accessory or no? Nah.

51:50

No, that's very after the bell man.

51:52

I'm trying myself to wait for this

51:54

long. It's it's. It's habitual now, so.

51:56

I learned that at West, they call

51:59

them the dog walkers. Yeah, yeah, oh,

52:01

that's great. In all of the, in

52:03

all of the, in all of the

52:05

dispensaries, they have dog walkers and I

52:07

do buy them, you know, by the

52:09

10 pack because they're amazing packaging, they're

52:11

amazing, amazingly built and right after the

52:13

bell, we go out with a pack

52:15

of those. Yeah. Up here in Canada,

52:17

I've heard it be called the safety

52:19

meeting too. Yeah, that's good. You got

52:21

all the lift, the lift bombs, the

52:24

ski hill guys. Yeah, it's attitude adjustment

52:26

hour. That's right. We're in store for

52:28

a couple of those. It's Friday, guys.

52:30

I mean, no, my technique is just

52:32

keep your routine, no matter how stressful

52:34

or tired you are. You know, it's

52:36

Thursday, it's Wednesday, you just, you know,

52:38

put in some long days, it's. it's

52:40

keeping that routine whether that routine is

52:42

the same wake-up time it's the working

52:44

out in the morning or in the

52:46

evening it's all the kind of mental

52:49

health you know you don't necessarily do

52:51

them for mental health things but they

52:53

are there and for me there's it's

52:55

yoga once a week it's a couple

52:57

runs of a couple bikes a couple

52:59

lifts and you know sticking to that

53:01

routine as much as possible because you

53:03

can get so bogged down staring at

53:05

charts where you feel like you need

53:07

to flip through 10 more and run

53:09

a couple more analysis and you don't

53:11

realize this diminishing marginal returns you know

53:13

environment you're putting yourself in that that's

53:16

starting to negatively affect your composure and

53:18

and you know stability and so for

53:20

me it's it's maintaining that routine really

53:22

true and true. Yeah, man, you gotta

53:24

let the air out of the pressure

53:26

cooker any way you can because it'll

53:28

help you make better decisions I was

53:30

just gonna say something like that like

53:32

when I I know that when I

53:34

remind myself like All right after the

53:36

close I want to just look at

53:38

a couple charts go to the gym

53:41

and cook some dinner and it's six

53:43

o'clock It's like all right. Go go

53:45

work out. Okay, put the computer down

53:47

go work down. You know and eat

53:49

something eat something. Yeah, that that stuff

53:51

is the best and then eventually you

53:53

get your mind off the market though

53:55

and then that then it gives you

53:57

a chance to use that if you

53:59

don't take your eyes off the tape

54:01

you know you get like asphyxiated yeah

54:03

I mean it's awesome to have you

54:06

on here Felix Quinn you guys are

54:08

the best this is really one of

54:10

the fun or podcast that I've ever

54:12

ever go on so anytime you want

54:14

me back man at a moment's notice

54:16

I'm here Yeah, we'll do. And give

54:18

a little chill on, you know, we

54:20

talked about the dirt nap, but we

54:22

like what you guys are doing. So

54:24

make sure, let our listeners know. Thank

54:26

you very much. Yeah, man. Listen to

54:28

the macro dirt podcast with me and

54:31

Jared. Like and subscribe. We're getting great

54:33

feedback. People are really what people are

54:35

appreciating and why we put it online

54:37

is because the matter what, it is

54:39

a half a century worth of experience.

54:41

worth of master class market talk. You

54:43

know what I mean? There's not going

54:45

to be, there's not going to be

54:47

too many, you know, conversations with guys

54:49

like us that had similar seats that

54:51

are kind of hashing this out in

54:53

all. Totally, totally understandable fun terms. So

54:56

that's where we think we're trying to

54:58

bring value. And we're going to keep

55:00

doing it for as long as we

55:02

can. So thank you for giving us

55:04

a plug, and I'll definitely have you

55:06

guys on the show one at a

55:08

time. Yeah, we should do a, we

55:10

should, maybe we even do a little

55:12

collab because I, I could, you know,

55:14

me and Felix could use the, I

55:16

like the name, names, you guys, the

55:18

name for each other. Yeah, dude, it's

55:21

so funny. For every one of those,

55:23

there's somebody that wines about it. For

55:25

everybody that wines about it, for everybody

55:27

that's like. dude we'd love that you

55:29

guys just speak your mind it's like

55:31

a breath of fresh air i get

55:33

an email that says i'm unsubscribing because

55:35

i'm upset at what you said in

55:37

the podcast and i you know i

55:39

need to like go well Jared a

55:41

bad name yeah yeah yeah i don't

55:43

know i mean i you can't figure

55:46

out what you do that's so offensive

55:48

sometimes but there's you got to have

55:50

guardrails up everywhere that's kind of what

55:52

i'm learning yeah yeah love it but

55:54

we'll get We'll do a

55:56

do on the podcast

55:58

and have a

56:00

great time. a be

56:02

incredible. That'd be good. Have

56:04

a good weekend. good.

56:06

Have a good Take care.

56:08

Yeah, see boys. Take care. Later.