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My name is Alex Goldman. This

2:56

is Hyperfixed. On the show, listeners

2:58

write in with their problems, Big

3:01

and I solve them. Or at

3:03

least I try. And if I

3:05

don't, I at least give a

3:08

good reason why I can't. So

3:10

far, this show's been the small

3:12

claims court of problems. Driving in

3:15

New York City, grocery store refrigerators,

3:17

diarrhea buttons. I mean, sure, the

3:19

stories were sometimes undergirded by complicated

3:22

science and historical deep dives. But

3:24

the problems themselves are relatively personal

3:26

and small. Problems that whether I

3:29

fix them or not. had definitive

3:31

answers. But today's question is bigger.

3:33

It's way harder to answer and

3:36

it will have inexorably life-altering consequences

3:38

for its asker. This week, Kristen

3:40

has doubts. I had had doubts

3:42

in questions brewing. I've always been

3:45

kind of a questioner, a searcher,

3:47

you know. This is Kristen. She's

3:49

32 years old, she lives in

3:52

California, and she works in education

3:54

policy using data analysis to help

3:56

teachers get ready to teach in

3:59

the classroom. But the the life she

4:01

leads now, this life of data and

4:03

questions, is is a far cry from the

4:05

faith -centric life she was born into. So

4:07

my So my parents were

4:09

ministers for a Christian ministry, like evangelical, but also,

4:11

it's a but also one of

4:14

the reasons I've a weird one. It's

4:16

one of the reasons I've spent the last seven

4:18

years unpacking it. that This Christian tradition

4:20

it grew up with, it didn't have

4:22

the purity culture that's so prevalent amongst

4:24

evangelicals and women were allowed to be

4:26

leaders, be but it was still grounded in

4:28

this idea of this faith. but

4:31

when I was I was 17, I was more I

4:33

was to trying to find the best way to to

4:35

the to find the best way to help

4:37

the world. thought the best way a long time, to

4:39

Kristin thought the best way to do that was

4:41

to become a vocational Christian minister. with her She moved

4:43

around the country with her family and really admired

4:45

the way her parents were able to connect with

4:47

people wherever they went. they went. So at 21, she

4:49

got married got married doing started doing her

4:51

own work, sharing her specific of of

4:53

theology with the people she met

4:55

out in the world. the world. But but

4:58

then, in 2016. Kristen

5:00

participated in a domestic mission trip to

5:02

West Virginia, in one of the

5:04

one of hit by the opioid crisis. by the opioid

5:07

and everything changed. changed. There could

5:09

be mission trips maybe that

5:11

are based on based on like, -based community

5:13

service and intervention and this

5:15

was not that. This was, not that.

5:17

know, trying to. trying to invite people

5:19

to our our Bible and our Bible

5:21

classes and teach them the theology

5:23

of that group. group. And so

5:25

I was like 24 when I arrived

5:27

there it it was sort of the

5:29

breaking point of realizing like, like, do

5:31

I I think teaching people people Bible

5:33

classes is the way to make

5:35

the world a better place, or do

5:37

I not? And And there's no place

5:39

that you have to confront that

5:42

more directly directly than when you're looking

5:44

at people who have suffered from substance

5:46

use disorder, whose lives are falling

5:48

apart, and apart and you're more about about you know

5:50

the family and what caused all of

5:52

this. and Essentially it it just came to

5:54

the point where I realized inviting

5:56

people to Bible classes is not how

5:58

I think the world. changed for the

6:01

better. That trip was a breaking point

6:03

for Kristen. When she came back from

6:05

West Virginia, she left her family's ministry,

6:07

she got divorced, and she started looking

6:10

to rebuild her life in a way

6:12

that felt more consistent with the things

6:14

she really believed in. So Kristen went

6:16

back to school, she got a master's

6:19

degree, she got remarried, and she's now

6:21

living a life that feels happy and

6:23

meaningful to her. And the reason I'm

6:25

telling you all of this is because

6:28

I need you to understand the person

6:30

behind today's problem. Kristen has never been

6:32

satisfied with the world as it's been

6:35

described to her. She doesn't take action

6:37

without weighing the options. And she'd rather

6:39

burn her life to the ground than

6:41

live in a way that is out

6:44

of alignment with her values. So when

6:46

Kristen reached out to us and said

6:48

that the decision whether or not to

6:50

have a child plagues her every single

6:53

day, we were like, say more about

6:55

that. It sounds like you are very

6:57

analytical and very thoughtful and you go

6:59

really deep on things that you are

7:02

not sure about. Yeah, I would say

7:04

that's definitely true. Yeah. So I assume

7:06

you've had a lot of thoughts about

7:09

having kids. Like what you probably have

7:11

pro-con lists sitting around somewhere. What are

7:13

they? So for me, the pros. I've

7:15

always loved kids. I love the idea

7:18

of getting to like explore the world

7:20

as a... child again, you know, like

7:22

through your child and getting to see

7:24

them learn about science and animals and

7:27

travel. I have a niece and two

7:29

nephews right now and they are like

7:31

my life. Like I love being an

7:33

aunt. I did the Big Brothers Big

7:36

Sisters program for five years and I'm

7:38

still very tight with my little. I

7:40

love kids. I love, like, being able

7:43

to give them a safe environment and

7:45

explore who they are. That's the pro,

7:47

right? Got it. And what are the

7:49

cons? There are just so many. Remember,

7:52

Kristen's whole thing is about looking at

7:54

the world and trying to figure out

7:56

what you can do to make it

7:58

better. But when we first... to her

8:01

in July of 2024, the presidential election

8:03

was four months away, and she had

8:05

this creeping sense that things were on

8:07

the verge of being broken beyond repair.

8:10

I'm someone who pays attention to the

8:12

patterns of the world and like where

8:14

our democracy is headed, where climate is

8:17

headed, like these things impact me deeply,

8:19

and I'm someone who can kind of

8:21

read the signals. maybe a little earlier

8:23

than it makes it to the mainstream

8:26

about how bad things could get how

8:28

quickly. So that's tough. For Kristen, being

8:30

keenly aware of the social and political

8:32

environment is percolating this anxiety that you

8:35

can't ignore. On top of that, this

8:37

interview was conducted two days after the

8:39

assassination attempt on Donald Trump this summer,

8:41

which just felt like another unsettling escalation.

8:44

It feels like the seismographer is sensing

8:46

some of the changes that are coming.

8:48

So what kind of political and social

8:51

structure am I bringing a kid into?

8:53

Politics plays a huge role in the

8:55

way that Kristen's thinking about this question,

8:57

but it's far from the only factor

9:00

that she's weighing. When Kristen looks at

9:02

the world, it seems like everything is

9:04

trending in the wrong direction. Climate change

9:06

is creating an inhospitable environment for future

9:09

generations. A national abortion ban threatens the

9:11

well-being of women, and social media is

9:13

making young people more depressed than ever.

9:15

It's just such a risk. I'm like

9:18

a very analytical risk person, and it's

9:20

the biggest risk ever in my view.

9:22

It sounded like the thing Kristen wanted

9:25

was a crystal ball that would let

9:27

her see into the future and know

9:29

that it was going to be a

9:31

safe place to raise children. And obviously...

9:34

I could not give that to her.

9:36

I mean, not on this show's budget.

9:38

So I had to tell her. First

9:40

of all, this is a question that

9:43

has no answer. I'm going to go

9:45

to experts. They are going to give

9:47

me opinions. And I'm going to come

9:49

back and say, like, hey. Based

9:52

on their information.

9:54

This is either a fine

9:56

time time to have

9:59

kids It's the

10:01

same as every other

10:03

time or it's

10:05

like way worse it's like

10:08

way worse. would make this would make for

10:10

you? What is the closest to solved

10:12

I could make this for you? I

10:14

If you talk to someone

10:16

who's not a to alarmist, but

10:19

who is alarmist, but who is a

10:21

clear-eyed I could know that

10:23

like know that like, for For

10:25

instance, how bad climate change will be.

10:27

will be... Not in 150 years, in

10:29

but in... right? years,

10:31

right? me that If you could

10:33

tell me... going things are

10:35

likely going to get really

10:38

bad. our democracy is not only

10:40

the demise of our democracy.

10:42

that we are is not only

10:44

possible but likely, that we are

10:46

likely to experience war or

10:48

famine here in the United States.

10:50

help me be like, those things would help

10:52

me be like, more I'm actually

10:54

more comfortable not having a

10:56

child and instead filling those. needs, like

10:59

that desire for connection and

11:01

service and for connection and service

11:03

that nurturing in other ways, me. Like I

11:05

that would feel solved to me.

11:07

the could be convinced that the

11:09

risk is too great for me

11:11

because I don't feel to have children. I could

11:14

be need to have children. is

11:16

too I could be convinced that the

11:18

risk is too great and I could

11:20

better serve in other ways. is ultimately a I

11:22

understand this is ultimately a problem that Kristen

11:24

is going to have to solve herself. herself. It It

11:26

seems to me like she feels like she

11:28

doesn't have enough data, have enough she could

11:30

just have some have some that the future

11:32

wasn't going to descend into chaos. descend into

11:35

She'd feel comfortable enough to move ahead with

11:37

having a kid. with having a kid. And look,

11:39

I did say did say that the - team team

11:41

would attempt to solve your problems no matter how

11:43

big or small they were. they were. So I'm

11:45

kind of on the hook for this one. for this

11:47

one. this is a tough one, man. one, man. I should should

11:49

have never taken this, I I should have

11:51

never started this podcast. this podcast. Ooh, mistake. No hard

11:53

feelings like, this like, not is not

11:56

touchable. And of course there's

11:58

no easy take this buzzfeed quiz and find out. if

12:00

you should have kids or not. Maybe

12:02

that's what I need to do. Maybe

12:04

I need to take the information that

12:06

I get from this and make it

12:08

a take this quiz and it will

12:11

tell you if you should have children.

12:13

That seems like that's just going to

12:15

get me in trouble. There would be

12:17

a way to, you could do it

12:19

without doing it. You could say like,

12:21

what are your biggest fears and concerns

12:23

and here are some things to look

12:26

at, but that's less fun than like

12:28

what Disney character are you? Kristen

12:32

wasn't interested in emotional reassurance. She wanted

12:34

something quantifiable. Something she could point to

12:36

that would settle this issue and convince

12:39

her that it's an okay time to

12:41

bring children into the world. Or not.

12:43

And as I started working on this

12:46

story, I realized I wanted that too,

12:48

because even though I'm already a parent,

12:50

I'm not 100% certain that having my

12:52

kids was the right decision. And it's

12:55

not because I don't love them. They

12:57

are the best part of my life

12:59

without question. But I am very afraid

13:02

of the world they have to grow

13:04

up in. And I have been for

13:06

a long time. I'm the kind of

13:09

guy who's been writing letters to climate

13:11

scientists for the last 20 years expressing

13:13

my helplessness about the rapid increase of

13:16

CO2 in the atmosphere. I've been convinced,

13:18

for the better part of my adult

13:20

life, that if war doesn't swiftly end

13:22

the world, apathy will slowly poison it.

13:25

There was always something about having kids

13:27

that felt inherently selfish. So in 2013,

13:29

when my wife started talking about wanting

13:32

to have children, it sparked a lot

13:34

of soul-searching and some very difficult conversations

13:36

and some couples therapy. For the sake

13:39

of our relationship, I made a choice

13:41

to believe that things probably weren't going

13:43

to be as bad as I imagined

13:45

they were, that my pessimism was just

13:48

pessimism and not necessarily mored in reality.

13:50

But when I looked back over the

13:52

last decade, I see a world much

13:55

worse off than it was before my

13:57

kids born. I feel like that pessimism

13:59

I had turned out to be prescient.

14:02

And I was desperate to find someone

14:04

who could convince me otherwise. Uh, the

14:06

premise of the show is that we're

14:09

solving problems for people. And we had

14:11

a listener contact us and say, should

14:13

I have kids? And I was like,

14:15

I don't know the answer to that.

14:18

But I guess that's why I'm here.

14:20

So we've been trying to figure out

14:22

what the right answer is. And well,

14:25

we stumbled upon your article. on our

14:27

journey. Sure. Do you mind telling me

14:29

which article? This is Dylan Matthews. He's

14:32

a writer at Vox, and one of

14:34

his primary research interests is this question

14:36

of whether the world is getting better

14:39

or worse. And if I sound like

14:41

I'm already somewhat disengaged in the back

14:43

and forth you just heard, it's because

14:45

in 2018, Dylan wrote an article indicating

14:48

that the world was getting much, much

14:50

better. And to me, that just seemed

14:52

preposterous. Oh, oh, oh, it's your 2018

14:55

article that's like 23 charts and maps

14:57

that show the world is getting much

14:59

better. Okay, okay. Yeah, yeah. Okay, cool.

15:02

In Dylan's 2018 article, he compiles all

15:04

this data from all these different sources,

15:06

and when you look at the charts

15:09

and maps he's built from them, they

15:11

do show progress, nearly all the way

15:13

across the board. Since 1990, child mortality

15:15

and super extreme poverty have fallen by

15:18

a ton. Solar and wind energy have

15:20

gotten cheaper. Literacies on the rise, homicides

15:22

on the decline, and thanks to medication

15:25

becoming generally more accessible, people have generally

15:27

become healthier. But all of these stats

15:29

were measured from a global perspective, and

15:32

all the charts were made before COVID.

15:34

So I had to ask Dylan, how

15:36

are you feeling about the world now?

15:38

It's funny you ask that. I think

15:41

like 2021, 2022 someone asked me to

15:43

update it and there were a lot

15:45

of charts that you just like couldn't

15:48

include because things had strictly gotten worse

15:50

since the pandemic. And so I think

15:52

I've gotten less hopeful in that I

15:55

think we had this huge event that

15:57

showed to me that like... things

15:59

really can get seriously

16:02

worse worse. of years a

16:04

number of years, because you like hits

16:06

you like a meteor and throws

16:08

everything out of whack. poverty And like

16:10

poverty went up because of COVID

16:13

and mortality obviously went up because of

16:15

COVID. COVID and these things we've been

16:17

making progress on just making games got

16:19

wiped out like gains of this

16:21

one virus. of this one virus. so I

16:23

think I think that doom -pilled me a

16:25

little little bit. Now this is exactly what I

16:27

expected to hear. The world is getting

16:29

worse The my perfect, adorable children are going

16:32

to have to bear the brunt of it.

16:35

And then Dylan said something I to

16:37

expecting to hear. it. And then

16:39

that being said. something I was

16:41

not is gonna be weird to say, but hear.

16:43

That being said, incredibly hopeful about

16:45

climate, to which is not, I

16:47

have I think the mood

16:49

kidding me? about climate, which is not like, I

16:51

think the, the move. Okay, hold on, before we go

16:54

any further, here's what I hold on.

16:56

Before we go any further, We

16:58

are here's what I know.

17:00

Here's what I know. We

17:02

are, like, on track for

17:04

1 .5 degrees of warming. At

17:06

least. As far

17:08

as I know, carbon emissions rise.

17:10

to rise. four And. we're faced with,

17:13

years we're faced with at least

17:15

in the which was major polluter. we're

17:17

faced with like... One party that

17:19

wants to deregulate everything and then

17:21

another party that kind of

17:23

wants to deregulate some things. to It's

17:25

like every time they make a climate commitment and

17:27

I understand. time the make a made a big

17:29

climate commitment. Sure. I understand very proud

17:31

of them made a big climate commitment. Sure. I'm very

17:33

sound very also like you know it's

17:36

like bad, you know, New Deal gets

17:38

like New Deal gets down they're opening

17:40

up new offshore drilling new there's

17:42

all these things that to

17:44

me say like we're still very

17:47

committed committed to like oil and gas.

17:49

And shit seems to be shit seems

17:51

to be getting worse. my rant is that

17:53

my rant is over and I apologize, I

17:56

apologize. of which I none of which

17:58

I disagree with for the record. Okay.

18:00

Great, okay. So tell me why you me, tell

18:02

me why you feel. if you can can turn me

18:04

around on this. you'll change my

18:06

change my life. life, I

18:08

think everything life, a almost everything

18:10

becomes a question of baseline. you,

18:13

if your perspective on climate is, is this

18:15

bad your perspective on climate is, is this

18:17

bad compared to if we had not

18:19

fucked up the climate? to if we

18:21

it's really bad compared to if we had

18:23

not fucked up the climate. very It's very hard

18:25

to thread the needle on this because like... A

18:28

A lot of people are gonna

18:30

die because of climate change. because of

18:32

there's no way to sugarcoat that

18:34

and no way it not horrible. and make it

18:36

not horrible. feel a need to push

18:38

back is when people talk about

18:40

like the world being worse than

18:42

than it was was we were we were

18:44

growing up or becoming uninhabitable. Dylan

18:47

explained the reason he's feeling so much more

18:49

optimistic about the climate has a lot

18:51

to do with the most recent report from

18:53

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The

18:55

IPCC does a ton of work The what

18:58

climate change will look like. And a

19:00

few years ago, change they said we were

19:02

on track for years ago, they said scenario. on track for a

19:04

We're talking mass We're talking permafrost

19:06

melting, catastrophic feedback loops

19:08

that destroy the entire world

19:10

destroy the entire world bad. But recently...

19:13

The The IPCC revised their view of

19:15

our climate future from the worst

19:17

case scenario to what's called the intermediate

19:19

scenario. intermediate which is still bad.

19:21

bad, but but markedly less bad. on

19:24

the very Based on the very limited

19:26

action we've taken to address climate change

19:28

since 2019, 2019, forecasts of the future

19:30

are already like like 70 to 80% 80 %

19:32

better than they were before. think also think

19:34

also the the passage of the

19:36

inflation reduction reduction act, don't disagree. It's

19:38

not enough. disagree. It's not enough. I also

19:40

just had very, very low expectations for

19:42

the U .S. Congress. I I didn't think

19:44

they were going to do going to do

19:46

jack shit. And they they passed this trillion bill keeps

19:49

keeps in costs every time they re -estimate

19:51

it because people keep wanting to

19:53

use the subsidies and buy more more EVs

19:55

and build more solar plants. Dylan points

19:57

out that batteries and solar energy are

19:59

are... cheaper than coal and he says we'll

20:02

soon get to a point where they're

20:04

cheaper than natural gas too. And at

20:06

that point you don't have to rely

20:08

on the benevolence of the folks in

20:10

charge who are not benevolent. You just

20:12

have to rely on their greed. So

20:14

anyway this is it's a nuanced situation

20:16

and I don't want people to hear

20:19

this and be like Dylan doesn't give

20:21

a shit about climate change and he

20:23

thinks it's all fine. It's not fine.

20:25

It is less not fine than it

20:27

was even like five years ago. I

20:33

do have to admit I was moved

20:35

by this a little bit. But climate

20:37

change was only one of a litany

20:39

of concerns that Kristen and I were

20:42

carrying around on our backs. And I

20:44

wanted to ask Ellen to account for

20:46

the other stuff that was scaring me

20:48

about the future and tell me why

20:50

I felt so bad about the world

20:53

if all the data continued pointing toward

20:55

progress. I found the hard way over

20:57

the years of like trying to make

20:59

this point that saying things used to

21:01

be much, much worse. doesn't really comfort

21:04

people about their current situation. I think

21:06

just like psychologically there's some block there.

21:08

And that's like a very natural and

21:10

human thing. But where I get off

21:12

the train is I think all of

21:15

that progress that did happen in the

21:17

past happened because people refused to be

21:19

fatalistic. I think it's important to instil,

21:21

especially in like young people, a sense

21:23

that Like, all is not lost, and

21:26

that, like, you can do things that

21:28

can, will not make the world perfect,

21:30

but can stave off disaster. Dylan sees

21:32

all the things I'm seeing. He's not

21:34

naive. He's looking at the world with

21:37

clear eyes, and he understands that things

21:39

feel bad. But that view of reality,

21:41

it just wasn't reflected in the data.

21:43

At least, not right now. Even so,

21:45

I needed to know if that trend

21:48

line was going to continue to engine

21:50

the direction of progress and justice, so

21:52

I could go back to Chris. and

21:54

her, yes, your your

21:56

kids have a shot

21:58

at at life, or

22:01

America's America's probably going

22:03

to turn into

22:05

the the Thunderdome. it turns out out

22:07

this organization called Our World and

22:09

Data, whose goal is to to

22:11

information on trends related to the

22:14

world's biggest problems. Basically, all

22:16

the things Kristen's concerned about,

22:18

stuff like climate change, technology,

22:20

democracy. democracy. So we So we reached out

22:22

to one of the main researchers there there see

22:24

how he felt about the world that Kristen's

22:26

kids could inherit. Yeah, I'm I'm Abastard

22:28

Harry, Harry. I'm a a researcher

22:31

at in in data And what

22:33

I do for a

22:35

living is trying to find to

22:37

find data on the world's

22:39

biggest problems to trying to

22:41

explain it easy

22:44

ways as possible the

22:46

then public. to the

22:48

broader public. Kristen's question

22:50

to Bastian. And and he told me that

22:52

when his team looks at the numbers at the what

22:54

they see is a is a of progress.

22:56

Same Same as Dylan. like Dylan,

22:58

Bastian was not trying to was not

23:00

trying to convince me that sea levels

23:02

aren't rising, that that fascism isn't creeping, or

23:04

that or that things aren't generally pretty

23:06

bad. In fact, fact. in admitted in

23:08

a lot of ways, and for a lot of

23:10

people, things are awful. he but he

23:13

continued this bell that based on the data,

23:15

people being born now have a a better

23:17

shot at a good life than they've

23:19

ever had before. before. And I

23:21

continued to feel to

23:23

feel deeply dissatisfied with that

23:25

answer. funny, I feel so funny. I

23:27

feel like I spend so much time

23:29

thinking about how bad the the world is. And then

23:31

then everyone I've talked to who's actually

23:33

in the hard data the hard getting pretty

23:35

good. Things are, things aren't bad. I

23:37

mean, I also have to then hasten

23:40

to add, I read an article, add, I

23:42

read an BBC article yesterday that said, in

23:44

the last 50 years, we've lost 70

23:46

50 of we've lost 70% of the... biomass

23:48

in the the world or something. so seems

23:50

like a pretty big catastrophe, right? right

23:52

yeah yeah right and we're also we're also writing with that right

23:54

that, just also published a few days

23:56

ago, right Based on this new data,

23:58

my my who are also reporting on

24:00

that, on that, right? So So don't don't wanna make

24:02

light of the many challenges that the

24:04

world the world They're certainly there, certainly And we

24:06

have to take them very seriously, but

24:08

I think there are two enemies. There's

24:10

the enemy of complacency by saying, oh

24:12

the enemy of are just getting better, right?

24:14

Look at how much better we have

24:16

it now than 50 years ago or

24:18

200 years ago. It's just gonna continue

24:20

like that. ago, And then going course is

24:23

far from guaranteed. It's just not guaranteed,

24:25

right? We achieved this progress by a

24:27

lot of people seeking progress,

24:29

working towards progress, developing new

24:31

vaccines, protesting in the streets,

24:33

pushing for political reform. And

24:35

so this is how it

24:37

will also have to continue

24:39

moving forward. At the same

24:42

time, At the is time, there is this doom

24:44

scrolling, right? of despair, of right?

24:46

People just despair. just They feel

24:48

like feel is getting worse.

24:50

We're moving in the wrong

24:52

direction direction all possible indicators. they

24:54

And they don't think progress

24:56

is possible at all all. anymore or

24:58

it never was. And that is that

25:00

is also not true based on

25:02

the data looking at. looking at. And

25:04

so to think we have to chart

25:06

this course three we hold again at the

25:08

same the same time, right? world

25:10

is awful, the world is much

25:12

better, but the world can be

25:14

much better still. And that will

25:16

hinge upon us taking sustained action towards progress.

25:26

I need need to pause for a

25:28

minute and admit something. something. This This thing

25:30

that Bastian was saying to me to

25:32

how the path to a better

25:34

world hinges on sustained action toward progress,

25:36

action it's important. it's important. didn't fully... Appreciate

25:39

it when I was in the interview. when I was in the

25:41

the time, At I I wasn't really able

25:43

to hear it. hear it. I I

25:45

interviewed on on 16th. The internet at The internet

25:47

at this point was news -wall news

25:49

about the election, which was three

25:51

weeks away and the the polls were

25:54

predicting a very close race. race. and

25:56

between the threats of mass deportations

25:58

the the promise of country's the Department

26:00

of Education, and the stories I

26:02

kept hearing about women bleeding to

26:05

death in parking lots simply because

26:07

their doctors were afraid of the

26:09

legal repercussions of treating their miscarriages,

26:12

all I could think about was

26:14

that despite all the data, I

26:16

could not go back to Kristen

26:19

and tell her things were going

26:21

great, or even the things were

26:23

going okay. So in that moment,

26:25

instead of engaging with the substance

26:28

of what Bastian was saying, I

26:30

made a stupid joke. Maybe I

26:32

should just stop moping so much.

26:35

It sounds like everything's pretty okay.

26:37

I mean, I think on the

26:39

margins, I probably think you should

26:42

be moping less. I mean, I

26:44

don't know how much you mope,

26:46

right? A lot. Trust me, it's

26:49

a lot. I mope a lot.

26:51

Then I think, yeah, I think

26:53

on average mope less, if you

26:55

think that puts you in a

26:58

position to actually take more action

27:00

towards making progress instead of running

27:02

the risk of despairing. All the

27:05

experts were telling me that in

27:07

their expert opinions, things were getting

27:09

better. And yet I felt absolutely

27:12

certain that couldn't be true. Or

27:14

maybe it was just too simplistic.

27:16

Or maybe because of the new

27:19

accelerated rate of change in the

27:21

world, their algorithm-based models were failing

27:23

to capture just how uncertain the

27:26

future of America had become. So

27:28

without fully appreciating what was happening...

27:30

I went looking for a model

27:32

that would match my view of

27:35

the world. That's after the brink.

27:37

Is there something you need advice on

27:39

lately? Or maybe you're just a tiny bit

27:42

curious about the drama other people have. Hi,

27:44

I'm Jeanette Desmond Harris, aka dear Prudence, and

27:46

every Friday I answer your burning questions about

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and guests like Roxanne Gaines shows. on Dear

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fixed. That's masterclass.com/hyperfixed.

29:30

Welcome back to the show. So

29:32

by mid-October, I was back

29:35

to the show. to get frustrated.

29:37

By mid expert I was starting to get

29:39

frustrated. to was telling me the expert

29:41

I'd spoken to was telling me the

29:43

same things are the board, things are

29:45

getting better, which felt totally out of

29:47

sync with the world I was living

29:50

in. in. There had been a second assassination

29:52

attempt on Donald Trump Trump, and top of

29:54

that that, he He was promising that if he

29:56

won would would open up new drilling

29:58

for fossil fuels he he would start targeting

30:00

people and and immigrants, and and

30:02

journalists. Things felt bad. So when I

30:04

finally met a forecaster, when I

30:06

finally met a forecaster there are confirmed for

30:08

me, in the there are troubling trends

30:11

in the global landscape. It felt like

30:13

being seen for the first time

30:15

during the making of this story. there's been

30:17

what may know there's been what

30:19

they call backsliding. There's been a rise rise

30:21

of autocracy around the world and some

30:23

not doing as well. as well.

30:25

This is is Robert Danufill. and he's

30:27

a a super forecaster, which is a

30:30

real that can only that can only

30:32

be earned in a competition by the arm

30:34

of the government to determine how well

30:36

people can predict the future using data.

30:38

using data. Robert successfully predicted things

30:40

as consequential as Russia's as of

30:42

Ukraine invasion of as trivial as

30:44

as color of the year. color

30:46

of the And the one thing that

30:48

he said worries him about

30:50

the future the future this issue of

30:52

democratic backsliding, where formerly democratic countries

30:54

elect autocratic governments. So some some

30:56

people are concerned about this. I I don't

30:58

think it's some kind of long secular trend that

31:01

I would expect to continue. I think I think

31:03

the the world will continue to get a

31:05

little bit more bit more But there

31:07

has been this trend and I'm particularly concerned about

31:09

the United States. the And I'll be honest with

31:11

you, honest with you. I if this is a partisan

31:13

thing, people may want to reject it because it

31:15

sounds partisan. But if Trump got elected, I

31:17

probably wouldn't have a kid. I three weeks

31:19

or wouldn't decide to have a kid three weeks from now. from now. I

31:22

And I don't know what's gonna happen in the

31:24

US, but I'm concerned about it, and I'm

31:26

anxious about it. I'm And I don't about it, crazy,

31:28

and hopefully it won't be like Europe

31:30

in 1938, but there were people that

31:32

got bad feelings in 1938 and they

31:34

were right. won't be like that

31:36

kind of decision making is crazy. there were

31:39

people that got bad feelings

31:41

in 1938, and they were

31:43

right. So I don't think

31:45

that kind of As scary

31:47

as it sounds, is it felt very

31:49

validating to finally hear someone say

31:51

this. And to be clear, To be clear,

31:54

to Robert he to add that he

31:56

still feels generally optimistic about democracy and like

31:58

like every other expert I spoke to,

32:00

he believes that the world is generally

32:02

trending toward progress, even though it doesn't

32:04

always feel that way. And there was

32:06

something else he said that really resonated

32:08

with me. Before we got off the

32:10

phone, I asked Robert, in light of

32:13

the comments he made about Trump and

32:15

his fears about democratic backsliding, does he

32:17

think it's any more or less ethical

32:19

to have kids now than it was

32:21

four years ago when I was born?

32:23

And at first... He sighed and said

32:25

something I'd heard before about how we

32:28

don't remember the past being as stressful

32:30

as it is today. And he talked

32:32

about the fact that when he was

32:34

growing up, the threat of nuclear war

32:36

felt tangible and imminent. And that apart

32:38

from this one weird period in the

32:40

90s, when everyone in the US felt

32:43

pretty good about things, there's always been

32:45

some kind of turmoil. And then it

32:47

hit me. I came of age during

32:49

that era of good feeling. after the

32:51

first Iraq war, before the second, before

32:53

9-11, it really did feel like peace

32:55

is possible in our lifetime. Like I

32:57

really did, like world peace, like I

33:00

really felt that. But also, at the

33:02

same time that was happening, there were

33:04

like incredible atrocities going on in like

33:06

Chechnya, in places that just, I didn't

33:08

have the, I was not aware of,

33:10

like I was too young and too.

33:12

dumb and too sort of concerned with

33:15

only my little corner of the world.

33:17

So I didn't think about those things.

33:19

But I do remember that period and

33:21

it's really hard for my experience of

33:23

the world not to be colored by

33:25

this idea that like, oh, there was

33:27

a period of time where there was

33:30

like this real feeling that peace in

33:32

the world was possible. Yeah, I think

33:34

it was possible that time to imagine

33:36

that those were its pockets that we

33:38

were going to... peace was going to

33:40

spread to those bad areas. I think

33:42

that was wrong. I think the idea

33:45

that we were at the end of

33:47

history was always kind of silly. But

33:49

I also think that if we were

33:51

too high, then we might be too

33:53

low now. that things feel feel

33:55

better and worse,

33:57

but the overall trajectory

34:00

is up. And

34:02

things might be worse

34:04

for a while. you

34:06

know, you know, locally temporarily, but

34:08

I think the overall trajectory is

34:10

probably up. up. It's a a hard perspective

34:12

to hold on to hold on to, though.

34:15

For For better or worse, view my view

34:17

of the world was shaped by those

34:19

Elysian days of the mid to late

34:21

mid to late 90s. And getting an an out

34:23

of the blue the blue they were incredibly

34:25

anomalous and have not been not in history

34:27

in history exactly resolve my fears about the

34:30

future, the but it at least made

34:32

me able to see that they've definitely

34:34

been skewing my baseline understanding of the

34:36

world. So if she has kids she has kids

34:38

and decides she made a mistake, blame I blame it

34:40

on you and have her give you a call

34:42

she she needs to complain about it to somebody?

34:44

somebody? None of this is none of this

34:46

is family planning advice. Please don't it.

34:48

it or investment advice or anything.

34:50

or anything. The first

34:52

time I've spoken to Kristen was in

34:55

July of this The first time the to

34:57

Kristen was in July of this year.

34:59

had spoken By the beginning of November, I

35:01

had spoken to several different experts, who are

35:03

all realists the are all telling me the

35:05

same thing, that all things being equal,

35:07

been a there's never really been a better

35:09

time in history to have kids. starting to

35:11

I was starting to understand how my

35:13

coming of age in this era of

35:16

national optimism have have warped my expectations

35:18

for the future, the future. and even just

35:20

becoming aware of that was making me

35:22

feel a little better about things. about things. But

35:24

I was I was still struggling what to say

35:26

to Kristen. So I spent some time some time coming

35:28

back through all these conversations I'd had

35:30

about the future. future. And in in those conversations,

35:32

I started hearing things I hadn't been

35:35

able to hear in the moment. hear in

35:37

the In addition to telling me about

35:39

this data that they'd been collecting and studying,

35:42

this data that showed genuine progress across

35:44

the board, board. All all of these experts

35:46

tried to stress to me that progress

35:48

does not occur in a vacuum. that for as

35:50

They told me that for as long

35:52

as there have been people imagine to

35:54

imagine the future of the world. have

35:56

there have also been people who thought its

35:58

end was just around the corner. corner. Those people

36:00

felt in their bones that things were

36:02

bad in a way that they've never

36:05

been bad before. Bad in ways that

36:07

we as a civilization were simply not

36:09

equipped to handle. And those people have

36:12

always, always been wrong. But the fact

36:14

that they were wrong isn't really the

36:16

important part of the story. What's important

36:19

is understanding why. Humanity has faced disasters

36:21

and diseases. we faced fascism, we faced

36:23

countless moments that felt like the end.

36:26

And every single time, the thing that

36:28

diverted us from the path of destruction,

36:30

that kept us on the path of

36:33

progress, was people who refused to be

36:35

fatalistic. People who believed that we didn't

36:37

have to accept the forecast, who believed

36:40

that a better world was possible and

36:42

decided to fight for it. So, well,

36:44

I can't ultimately tell Kristen whether or

36:47

not to have kids. What I can

36:49

say is that when I imagine the

36:51

ideal parent, it's someone who doesn't accept

36:54

the world as it's explained to them.

36:56

Someone who believes that a better world

36:58

is possible. It's someone like Kristen. And

37:01

I wanted her to know that. But

37:03

then, on November 5th, Donald Trump won

37:05

the presidential election. And I just assumed

37:07

that was that. No matter what I

37:10

said, the door was closed on Kristen

37:12

ever having kids. But I still wanted

37:14

to know how she felt how she

37:17

felt. And I still needed an end

37:19

for the episode. So I called her

37:21

to talk about it. Hi, Kristen. Hey,

37:24

how's it going? And when I reconnected

37:26

with her one week after the election,

37:28

I was surprised by what I heard.

37:31

So before the election happened, there was

37:33

this narrative in my mind that because

37:35

I felt on the fence about this

37:38

decision, I had this idea that if

37:40

Kamla wins, that will be a sign

37:42

that our country is moving in a...

37:45

good direction and things will be stable

37:47

at least for a while and that'll

37:49

be more of a green light to

37:52

guess. And if our

37:54

country elects Donald

37:56

Trump again after everything

37:59

we've seen, that

38:01

will be more of

38:03

a closed door. seen,

38:06

that will be more of a closed

38:08

door a reason to say no. to say

38:10

no. And that that like late, late

38:12

late, late Tuesday night, the on the

38:14

I could see I could see that

38:16

Trump had basically definitely won. So as

38:19

So as I was going to

38:21

bed, that's sort of. where

38:23

I where I was at. It's like, okay, well, this

38:25

is what I said. what I said. Like if

38:27

he wins, this is kind of a no

38:29

for me. me. But in the days

38:31

following, I the days

38:33

following. fact that I think the me,

38:35

the fact that he won

38:37

the popular vote is actually slightly

38:39

helpful of a sense of wasn't a

38:41

fluke, this wasn't a fluke, we

38:43

can't blame the electoral college. like

38:45

the majority of voters chose

38:47

Trump, so this is the reality that

38:49

we're living in. we're also

38:52

realizing very clearly. clearly

38:55

that like how I handled things last

38:57

time time. is probably not work again. I

38:59

think a lot of us were

39:01

kind of of us through how to

39:03

live in a reality like that

39:05

and how to for me I'll

39:07

just speak for my side for me

39:09

I'll just was a little infant in

39:12

how to take up the cause

39:14

of justice and how to show

39:16

up in how to show up micro activism or, you

39:18

know making my voice heard like

39:20

I was I was really green figuring that

39:22

out last time time. so that It

39:24

has almost made me

39:27

rebellious and feel like. like I

39:29

actually I actually want

39:31

my own house to be

39:34

full of joy and wonder

39:36

and curiosity and fun and

39:38

love. if kids if kids are gonna

39:40

help me do that. do that. this

39:42

is is what I expected. I'm

39:45

not saying I'm for sure,

39:47

for sure, yes, but I'm not sure I'm

39:49

not sure that I want to give

39:51

up that power power. make my own house

39:54

as happy as it can be and

39:56

to live in a way where I'm

39:58

dictated by what's going on, going Twitter Twitter

40:00

or in... Washington DC. For Kristen, it turns

40:02

out that her opinion of the

40:04

world, her pessimism, wasn't particularly affected

40:07

by all the statistical data I've

40:09

thrown at her. What has moved

40:11

the needle for her was being

40:14

forced to confront a world that

40:16

feels terrifying and unsafe and immovable

40:18

and deciding not to let it

40:21

dissuade her from building the future

40:23

that she wants. Something about Trump

40:25

winning and him winning with the

40:27

popular vote, like it was just

40:30

crystallizing and it almost let me...

40:32

Let go. I was I was

40:34

so white-knuckled about how I thought

40:37

the future should look to make

40:39

this decision. And now that's blown

40:41

up. Fuck it. We have to

40:44

make the decisions with the world

40:46

we live in. How do I

40:48

want to move forward? Rather than

40:51

caving to despair, Kristen has already

40:53

decided to fight. To fight for

40:55

the future that she wants. For

40:57

her own happiness. And for the

41:00

better world she's been dreaming about

41:02

since she was 17 years old.

41:04

So the real important question is,

41:07

even though it sounds like you

41:09

have come to this completely on

41:11

your own, can I take credit

41:14

for you having made this decision?

41:16

Emma can take credit. It was

41:18

engineered by Tony Williams. Fact checking

41:20

by Sona Avakian. You can get

41:23

bonus episodes, join our discord, and

41:25

much much more, at hyperfixod.com/join. Most

41:27

recently, we're doing a competition with

41:30

premium members to remix the hyperfix

41:32

theme song, the song you're listening

41:34

to right now. The winner gets

41:37

a free year of premium hyperfix

41:39

for themselves or to gift to

41:41

someone else. I am very excited

41:44

to hear how those turn out.

41:46

Also, this show can't exist without

41:48

your problems to solve. So please

41:50

head on over to hyperfix.com and

41:53

submit your problems. Hyperfixed is a

41:55

proud member of Radio Topia from

41:57

PR. a network of

42:00

independent, creator -owned,

42:02

listener -supported podcasts. Discover

42:04

audio with with vision at radiotopia. FM. Also, if you the

42:06

button story from a couple weeks ago, there are

42:09

still buttons available, are and you can pick one

42:11

up at hyperfixpod.com. can pick one up so much for

42:13

listening. The The theme song's ending. I'm wondering if

42:15

I'm going to get all this in before it

42:17

ends. The theme song is ending.

42:19

I'm wondering if I'm going to get all

42:21

this in before it ends.