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media. This is Market

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Plan. In Los Angeles,

0:48

I'm Kai Rizzo. It

0:50

is Thursday 10 April.

0:53

It is always to

0:55

have you along, everybody.

0:58

Well, let's see. There are

1:00

tariffs to talk about, of course. There

1:03

is inflation to talk about. The consumer

1:05

price index up 2.4% year on year.

1:07

2.8% if you take out food and

1:09

energy. Both of them lower than expected.

1:12

And there is gesturing wildly here everything

1:14

else. So it seemed to us

1:16

like a good day to get

1:18

a central banker on the phone.

1:20

Thus we did. Raphael Bostick is

1:22

the president of the Federal Reserve

1:24

Bank of Atlanta. Dr. Bostick, it's

1:26

good to talk to you again,

1:28

sir. Good to talk with you as always,

1:30

Guy. All right, so we'll go with the

1:32

data point of the day. First of all,

1:35

consumer price index came out this morning lower

1:37

than expected. One data point does not a

1:39

trend make, but what do you think?

1:41

Well, it's a positive development for sure.

1:44

The numbers could have gone in a

1:46

different direction, and I was worried about that.

1:48

But as you know, there's a lot that's

1:50

gone on since those numbers were produced. And

1:52

that's really what we're focusing on in trying

1:54

to figure out. What the next set of

1:57

numbers is going to look like well, so

1:59

let's talk about that. The through line

2:01

from Fed speakers, of which you are

2:03

on today, and there have been many

2:05

this week, and all y'all have been

2:08

saying, listen, we need to look through

2:10

this tariff situation. We need to figure

2:12

out long-term what they're going to mean.

2:15

And my question is, how do you

2:17

look through them when, number one, they're

2:19

so big, and number two, they seem

2:22

to happen or go away on a

2:24

whim? Well, you're asking a

2:26

very difficult question. It's a question that

2:28

I asked my team all this time.

2:30

It's my job. It's my job. I

2:32

appreciate that. So, you know, one of

2:34

the things that we are trying to do

2:36

is figure out how everyone else is

2:38

doing this. We're talking to businesses, we're

2:40

talking to consumers to figure out how

2:42

they're dealing with this unprecedented level of

2:45

uncertainty and volatility. You know, as things

2:47

are changing on a day to day.

2:49

or what they should be planning for.

2:51

And so the question that we've been

2:53

asking is, well, what are you doing

2:55

in that context? How are you thinking

2:58

about responding to this? What we're hearing

3:00

from most is that they're going to wait and

3:02

see and hope that this thing clears up so

3:04

that there's more certainty at some point in the

3:06

future. But we'll see how long they can hold

3:08

on. And I think that's one of the questions

3:11

that we will be watching very closely.

3:13

Yeah, but look, we've got this 90-day

3:15

pause, and to be clear, it's not

3:18

actually a pause, right? Tariff rates are

3:20

still elevated, and the business response to

3:22

those is going to be very, very

3:24

real in the next three months, and

3:27

that will be characterized by maybe

3:29

not layoffs, but certainly by companies

3:31

slowing down on their capital expenditures.

3:33

That will have an effect on

3:36

the actual real economy, no? It

3:38

could, you know, we talked to a lot

3:40

of businesses before and what they told us

3:42

was that for the size of the tariffs

3:45

that they were expecting, they thought they had

3:47

strategies that could work. Many were thinking about

3:49

passing through a bit of the cost

3:51

and to me, one of the big

3:53

questions out there is whether consumers would

3:55

take them on board. If the consumers

3:57

do, then I think businesses would be

3:59

less... stressed and less concerned, but I

4:02

have to say it's an open question

4:04

as to whether they will. We've just

4:06

had a long period of elevated inflation

4:09

when families are seeing this kind

4:11

of volatility and uncertainty as well. They

4:13

may pull back and be unwilling to

4:15

do things and so we're just going

4:17

to have to see what the reaction

4:20

is as all of this plays out.

4:22

Setting aside the inflation and price level

4:24

part of this thing, what's your level

4:26

of concern about the impact on economic

4:28

growth with these tariffs? You know, the

4:31

Atlanta Fed has its FedNow tracker and

4:33

we all follow that and it's down,

4:35

right? Yeah, so it is down. First

4:37

of all, I'm glad you're following it. It's

4:39

a very great tool for keeping track

4:41

of things. And it is down. And

4:43

I would say what we have heard

4:46

from our businesses and what we have

4:48

seen and what we have seen. It

4:50

has not shown up as much

4:52

in the formal data yet, but

4:54

we'll see whether it does, is

4:56

that everyone is retrenching a bit. Investment

4:58

is not as forthcoming, and

5:01

I think folks are expecting

5:03

everyone to pause, and that may

5:05

materially slow down what aggregate growth

5:08

looks like. The other thing I

5:10

would say also for us, though,

5:12

you know, employment is our mandate,

5:14

not GDP. Most businesses that

5:16

we're talking to are telling

5:18

us that they're willing to

5:20

basically wait and see on that

5:23

as well. They're not looking to

5:25

lay people off. They're not looking

5:27

to hire either. I think what

5:29

we're hearing is stasis for now,

5:31

and then we'll see if that posture

5:33

can support what the future looks like

5:35

is going to bring. You know, we've

5:38

been talking for a good long while

5:40

now, you and me. And I... Look,

5:42

we met once in real life, it's

5:44

a long story involving a restaurant in

5:47

Pasadena, but that's all I remember that.

5:49

But you are, it seems to me,

5:51

a cautious person by nature, and I

5:54

don't want to mischaracterize this, but

5:56

it does seem that the last

5:58

five or six minutes of this...

6:00

conversation, you have been more cautious

6:02

than usual and maybe a tad

6:04

more downbeat. Is that fair? So

6:06

cautious for sure. An analogy that

6:08

I've been using a lot is

6:11

driving in foggy conditions. When

6:13

you're driving in the fog, you just

6:15

got to slow down. When the fog

6:17

gets thicker, you're going to pull over

6:19

and wait. I think that's the wise

6:21

thing to do. And I think for

6:23

me, it's pretty clear, the fog's gotten

6:25

quite a bit thicker in the last

6:27

couple of weeks. So if you want

6:29

to say, I'm more cautious than before?

6:32

Sure. I mean, I do get paid

6:34

to be cautious though, so I want

6:36

to make that clear as well. In

6:38

terms of downbeat, I think the pressures

6:40

that are out there are not the

6:42

best for our mandates. introduction

6:44

to tariffs is going to put

6:46

upward pressure on prices. And I've

6:49

seen more reports of recession fears

6:51

in the media and from our

6:53

business context and I've heard in

6:55

a year and a half or

6:57

two years and so that's also

6:59

going to put pressure on our mandate

7:02

in a way that is not positive.

7:04

But today I would say we still

7:06

have a lot to play out and

7:08

as you know the current environment... might

7:10

not today might not be the current

7:12

environment tomorrow. And so some of these

7:15

forces may wind up being weaker than

7:17

they look like they're going to be

7:19

today. They could be stronger as well.

7:21

And that's another reason why caution I

7:23

think is the most prudent approach today.

7:25

Raphael Bostick at the Atlanta Fed. Thanks

7:28

again for your time, sir. Always good

7:30

to talk to you. Kai, it's always a

7:32

pleasure. Look forward to seeing you again. Yes,

7:34

sir. Assuming you have seen where Wall

7:36

Street ended today, would it help at

7:38

all... If I told you that at

7:40

their lows for the day, the major

7:42

industries were down twice as far down

7:44

as where they finished? Yeah, I

7:46

didn't think so. We'll have the details

7:49

when we do the numbers. stocks

8:01

get all the headlines

8:03

on days on weeks

8:05

on weeks i should

8:07

say like this which

8:10

i get all the

8:12

headlines on days on

8:14

weeks i guess i

8:16

should say like this

8:18

which i get but

8:21

honestly a lot of

8:23

the really important action happens in the

8:25

bond market. You saw that overnight Tuesday

8:27

and Wednesday, which is what really forced

8:29

President Trump's hand. Bond traders were trying

8:32

to figure out how much, or as

8:34

it turned out, how little money to

8:36

put into the safety of U.S. government

8:38

debt and whether that debt is actually

8:41

all that safe anymore. And while all

8:43

that was happening, the Treasury Department still

8:45

does have to sell new bonds because

8:47

this country still needs to borrow a

8:49

whole lot of money. Marketplace

8:51

is Justin Ho looked into how those

8:54

treasury auctions have been going. Treasury

8:56

auctions aren't exactly like the

8:58

auctions you've seen in the

9:00

movies. There's no fast-talking auctioneer

9:02

and bidders don't hold up paddles,

9:04

but... People enter bids and then they

9:06

find a price? That's Laura Veltcamp,

9:08

a finance professor at Columbia. She

9:10

says buyers aren't actually bidding on how

9:13

much they'll pay to buy the bond.

9:15

What they're actually bidding or yields yield

9:17

your like interest rates. And so

9:19

what they're saying is... I'll buy

9:21

that bond if you pay me

9:23

this much interest. Velkam says when

9:25

Treasury auctions go well? It means that all

9:27

of the bonds that the US government wanted

9:30

to get sold, that somebody actually showed

9:32

up and bought them, and that they

9:34

bought them at a price that was

9:37

roughly what we expected for the

9:39

price to be. But Treasury auctions

9:41

don't always go that smoothly.

9:43

For instance, on Tuesday, the

9:45

Treasury Department held an auction

9:47

of three-year notes. The auction

9:49

was objectively horrible. Lawrence Gillum

9:52

is chief fixed income strategist at

9:54

LPL Financial. Potential buyers were spooked

9:56

by the Trump administration's tariffs, and

9:58

so demand for the three-year treasuries

10:00

was weaker than expected. So

10:02

Treasury had to pay up a little bit to

10:05

help entice demand. In other words, offer

10:07

a slightly higher interest rate. The

10:09

Treasury Department also held auctions for 10

10:11

and 30-year notes this week, and Gillum

10:13

says those went a lot more smoothly.

10:16

But he says that weak auction on

10:18

Tuesday has investors paying much closer attention

10:20

to how much demand there is for

10:22

treasuries. If we see a string of

10:24

auctions that don't go well, that would

10:26

be a big clue that investors are

10:28

potentially looking looking looking elsewhere. That would

10:30

tell us that investors no

10:32

longer think that U.S. bonds

10:34

are such a safe investment.

10:36

I'm Justin Howe for Marketplace.

10:38

You know what's a safe

10:41

investment? Well, first of all,

10:43

public radio are large, but also

10:45

an investment of your time, our

10:47

podcast. If you miss us on

10:50

the radio, we get that. marketplace.org

10:52

or the platform of your choice.

10:54

Just follow us there. Coming

11:20

up. Several of our firms are

11:22

fearful. I dare say some border on

11:25

paranoia. Tell me you're a federal

11:27

contractor without telling me you're

11:29

a federal contractor. First though,

11:31

let's do the numbers. Didn't

11:33

need to say it, right? The

11:36

Wawa's. Down industrial is down a

11:38

thousand and fourteen points today,

11:40

two and a half percent,

11:42

thirty nine thousand, five, nine

11:45

or three. The NASDAQ subtracted

11:47

seven hundred and three tenths

11:49

percent. 16,383 the S&P 500

11:51

down, 188 points 3.5 percent,

11:53

52 and 68. As I

11:56

said, they were down basically

11:58

twice as far. at their

12:00

lows for the day and on lunchtime

12:02

on the East Coast. Oil prices dipped

12:04

around 3%. The day Brent crew at

12:07

the international benchmark trading around $63.50

12:09

a barrel. The stock of used

12:11

car dealer Carmax took a

12:13

hit the day after reporting

12:15

earnings that missed expectations shares

12:17

down 17% constellation brands, maker

12:19

of Madela Special and Corona

12:21

extra beers, posted a weaker

12:23

than expected outlook. The partial

12:25

tariff pause. That's an air

12:28

quotes. The President Trump announced

12:30

yesterday does not apply to

12:32

certain sector-specific tariffs, including... Think beer

12:34

cans, right? Aluminum. Constellation brands ticked up

12:36

three quarters of one percent today. Bonds

12:39

fell. The yield on the tenure T-note

12:41

increased to 4.42 percent. Think about that

12:43

for a second. You had stocks going

12:45

down. Bond prices going down. That is

12:48

unusual, and you're listening to Marketplace.

12:50

This Marketplace podcast is supported

12:52

by gusto. Paydays are great,

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Go to gusto.com/marketplace. That's gusto.com/

13:27

marketplace. I'm Kai

13:29

Rizdahl. Inflation has been sticky

13:32

the past year or two,

13:34

as you've heard here and

13:36

elsewhere. Sticky, asked perhaps in

13:38

housing. The CPI that was

13:40

out today showed shelter costs

13:42

up 4% year over year.

13:45

That's slower, yes, but... Prices

13:47

in housing are still going

13:49

up faster than the overall

13:51

rate of inflation. Shelter costs

13:53

include both renting and buying, and

13:56

those higher prices are forcing tough

13:58

decisions. We started a new... series

14:00

yesterday about people from different economic

14:02

walks of life and how they

14:05

are experiencing what's happening out there

14:07

lived economies it's called today Ashley

14:09

Ayala she's 36 an insurance appraiser

14:12

trying to be a first-time home

14:14

buyer as the median age of

14:16

first-time home buyers in this economy

14:18

keeps on going up marketplace of

14:20

Kristen Schwab has the story from

14:22

Austin everyone has that thing they

14:24

splurge on for Ashley Ayala it's

14:27

La Crusé Castor and pots and

14:29

pans that come in a rainbow

14:31

of colors. We're standing in

14:34

a Alice kitchen with

14:36

boxes of cookware littered

14:38

around us. Here's a razor.

14:40

In oyster, this is my

14:42

original color. But this is

14:44

the agave color that I

14:46

love. It looks like you've

14:49

not used it yet. I

14:51

haven't. Because I just like

14:53

to have them. I asked how

14:55

much she's spent on the brand.

14:58

All told. Probably like

15:00

$3,500. She starts pointing at pots.

15:02

I mean, one car payment, two

15:04

car payments. But I love it.

15:07

And in my head, I was

15:09

like, oh, like, when I have

15:11

a house, I'll have, like, the

15:14

open shelving in the kitchen. And

15:16

it's just, like, here's my, like,

15:18

Crusay, Crusay. And a house of

15:20

her own. That is Ayala's adult

15:22

dream. or at least part of

15:24

it. You see, Ayala is 36

15:26

years old. She runs an apartment

15:28

in Kyle, Texas, outside of Austin,

15:30

and in her words, she's ready

15:32

to be an adult, an adult

15:35

who owns a home. But there

15:37

are some hurdles. Ayala's salary

15:39

as an insurance appraiser is

15:41

around $75,000. Last year was

15:43

unusual. She made $130,000 with

15:45

overtime, but some of that

15:47

has gone to help her

15:49

mom and brother. Lately she's

15:51

been paying his rent. And

15:53

so she isn't confident her

15:55

base salary of $75K can

15:57

cover a mortgage alone. Fying

15:59

a house? is such a

16:01

large expense that it doesn't

16:03

feel tangible. In the meantime,

16:05

why not spend her disposable

16:08

income on cookware? This is a theme

16:10

a lot of millennials

16:12

are grappling with. Home ownership feels

16:14

out of reach. Meanwhile, people are

16:16

marrying later in life or staying

16:18

single altogether. A Pew study of

16:21

2021 census data says 25% of

16:23

40-year-olds had never been married. That

16:25

number was 6% in 1980. In

16:27

1980, in 1980. And that gets

16:29

us to Ayala's other dilemma. She's

16:32

in a newish relationship and doesn't

16:34

know if she should wait and

16:36

see where it goes or pursue

16:38

home ownership now alone. To figure

16:40

it out, she started looking at

16:43

houses. So I have these info

16:45

sheets for you just on the

16:47

two houses that we're going to

16:49

see. Ayala's realtor is showing us

16:52

a 1,500 square foot single family

16:54

home listed for just under $270,000.

16:56

It looks a bit builder-grade. I

16:58

see Ayala eyeing what appears to

17:01

be laminate countertops. It's nice. Yeah.

17:03

I feel like anyone with ears

17:05

can hear how unenthusiastic she is.

17:08

In the car after, I ask

17:10

what she really thinks. I know

17:12

this is going to sound horrible,

17:14

but does it feel a little

17:16

bit cheap? Right? There was nothing

17:18

that was like, wow, I really

17:20

like this. What do you want out

17:22

of it that's not there? Grown

17:25

up Ashley is like, hey,

17:27

I'm hosting Thanksgiving. Everyone's coming

17:29

over, there's like a nice

17:32

kitchen, tons of space for

17:34

people to like sit and

17:36

eat. It feels like, does

17:38

it feel all or nothing

17:40

to you? Yeah. Why is that,

17:43

do you think? Because I'm almost

17:45

40? Fact check. Ayala is 36,

17:47

but the takeaway is that she

17:50

feels behind. After another showing, Ayala

17:52

drives us to her dream neighborhood,

17:54

one of those ginormous new housing

17:57

communities. It has its own bus

17:59

stop. Two lazy rivers. See,

18:01

these houses are significantly bigger.

18:04

They're much bigger. These are not

18:06

what I would call like starter

18:08

homes. No. We park and check

18:10

out a fully staged model unit.

18:12

These homes run about a thousand

18:15

square feet bigger than the other

18:17

house we saw for up to

18:19

double the price. Look, my office.

18:21

I already know. You don't have to

18:23

tell me. That new voice you hear

18:26

is Ayala's boyfriend, James Hillfiker, who's

18:28

joined us for this showing. They've

18:30

been together for about half a

18:33

year. Hillfiker is 39. And up

18:35

until last fall, he was at

18:37

the same adulting crossroads as Ayala.

18:40

Go it alone or wait for

18:42

a partner to take big life

18:44

steps. Except Hillfiker made a decision.

18:46

He bought 50 acres of land

18:48

in rural Texas, four hours from

18:51

Austin. To me, it's very peaceful,

18:53

right? currently the nearest neighbors two

18:55

miles away. We're back at Ayala's

18:57

apartment now, taking stock of the

18:59

day. Hillfiker wants to homestead. He's

19:01

building a ranch, livestock and all.

19:03

And he's asked Ayala to join

19:05

him, but her family is here

19:08

in Austin, and she likes the

19:10

conveniences of suburban living, going to

19:12

the movies and to Target. I

19:14

asked how they're going to find some

19:16

sort of compromise. I'd want to

19:18

support her as much as I

19:20

can, like... Why would I keep

19:22

you from chasing your dreams, right?

19:24

And I think there's a way to coexist.

19:27

I hear you. But by

19:29

its very definition, buying a

19:31

house here is a huge

19:33

permanent step away from building

19:36

anything with you. I know.

19:38

Ayala didn't end up buying any

19:40

of the houses we saw that

19:42

day, but she's still looking and

19:45

still trying to figure out what

19:47

kind of grown up Ashley, she'll

19:49

be. In Kyle, Texas, I'm

19:51

Kristen Schwab for

19:54

Marketplace. This is one

19:56

of those weeks where

19:58

you wake up and you say Hey

20:00

man, what is happening out there? Might

20:02

I offer a suggestion? David Brancacho in

20:04

the Marketplace Morning Report. They get up

20:06

in the middle of the night to

20:08

make sure you know what's going on.

20:10

Check it out. Not

20:38

to be forgotten amid all the news

20:40

of the damage it's doing to

20:43

the American economy is the Trump

20:45

administration's dismantling of large parts of

20:47

the federal government. And that's not

20:49

just limited to federal employees. It

20:51

affects federal contractors too, and so

20:54

spills over into the private sector

20:56

economy. The government spends nearly $800

20:58

billion a year paying businesses to

21:00

provide all kinds of services from

21:02

cleaning and janitorial to high-tech engineering.

21:05

Washington's had policies in place

21:07

for decades. that give a leg

21:09

up to women and minority-owned businesses

21:11

providing those services had, being the

21:14

operative word there, thanks to an

21:16

executive order, that as Marketplace's Kimberly

21:18

Adams reports, has businesses that

21:20

benefited from those programs worried

21:22

about their future. Decades of policies

21:24

designed to level the playing field

21:27

from minority and women-owned businesses have

21:29

given a big boost to many

21:31

members of the U.S. Minority Contractors

21:33

Association. Larry Bullock is president

21:35

of the group, which represents

21:38

about 220 companies across the

21:40

US. The bulk of our firms

21:42

are into the infrastructure, that it

21:44

means that they do site work,

21:46

roads, hauling, concrete, asphalt, utilities. Many

21:49

of these firms are certified by

21:51

the federal government to compete

21:53

for contracts that are set

21:56

aside for what are known

21:58

as small disadvantaged businesses. executive

22:00

orders don't explicitly cancel

22:03

these programs, but... Several of

22:05

our firms are fearful. I dare

22:07

say some border on paranoia. That's

22:09

because, according to Dominic Casimir,

22:11

a partner at the law

22:13

firm, blank-rome. The executive order that

22:15

the president signed on his

22:18

first day in office directed

22:20

the government to terminate all

22:22

government contracts that they view

22:24

as being equity-related. That order and

22:26

others are being challenged in

22:28

court. We reached out to

22:30

the Small Business Administration for

22:32

comment on this issue, but

22:34

didn't hear back before our

22:36

deadline. While we've already seen

22:38

the government cancel contracts tied

22:40

to specific DEA programs, it's

22:42

less clear what these orders

22:44

mean for minority contractors. But

22:46

we have some signs. See,

22:48

the federal government has traditionally

22:50

set targets for what percentage

22:52

of each agency's contracts should

22:54

go to disadvantaged businesses. DPAC

22:56

bought is at Govspend, which

22:58

tracks federal contracting data.

23:01

That spending in 2024 was 9.8

23:03

percent. So this is about $76

23:05

billion. The Trump administration

23:07

has reset the target for these

23:09

contracts to just 5 percent. It's

23:12

a floor, not a ceiling, but says bought.

23:14

That could amount to about $38 billion

23:16

of contract spending that's currently

23:19

going to a small disadvantaged business

23:21

that will potentially no longer

23:23

go to some of those companies.

23:25

But says many minority-owned contracting

23:27

companies have built their business

23:30

strategies around these targets and

23:32

set-asides as a way to

23:34

compete for contracts against bigger,

23:37

better, connected, or resourced firms.

23:39

But given the current administration's

23:41

anti-DEI push... Everybody's terrified right

23:43

now that their contracts will be

23:46

terminated. Everybody is terrified right now

23:48

of just drawing a spotlight. That's

23:50

lawyer Dominic Casimir, a partner at

23:52

blank-rome again. She says her clients

23:54

are scrambling to make sure their

23:56

programs and policies don't run afoul

23:59

of new and shifting contracting

24:01

guidelines. What you're seeing right

24:03

now is government contractors making all

24:05

sorts of changes to their programs

24:08

because they don't want to become

24:10

the target of a government investigation?

24:12

All of the multiple minority-owned

24:14

contracting firms I've reached out

24:16

to for this story declined

24:18

to speak on the record

24:20

for the same reason. Members

24:23

of the U.S. Minority Contractors

24:25

Association were wary of drawing

24:27

attention to themselves too. Nevertheless,

24:29

says Larry Bullock, the association's

24:31

president, his group is planning

24:33

to fight these executive orders

24:35

in court. In the meantime, he's advising

24:37

members to turn to other levels

24:39

of government as a backup plan.

24:41

We've encouraged our members to look at

24:43

the local and state government policies that

24:46

say the people who are in a

24:48

certain geographic demographic area should

24:50

get an opportunity to participate

24:52

and they call them local

24:55

preferences. Because he says some

24:57

communities are digging in on

24:59

their diversity commitments, even as

25:01

the administration holds back on

25:03

the federal governments. In Washington,

25:05

I'm Kimberly Adams for Marketplace.

25:32

This final note on the way out

25:34

today, you're a major American company, Global

25:37

in fact, your flagship product is made

25:39

overseas. You wake up to see that

25:41

tariffs are not, in fact, paused. What

25:44

do you do? You take 600 tons

25:46

of iPhones, about a million and a

25:48

half of them, and you put them

25:51

on a couple of planes to the

25:53

US, from India. That's what you do.

25:55

Reuters had the story. More stories from

25:57

this tariff economy coming up tomorrow. John

26:00

Buckley, John Gordon, Noyakar, Diane, the

26:02

Parker, Amanda Petre, and Stephanie Seek

26:04

are the marketplace editing staff. Amir

26:07

Babawi is the managing editor, and

26:09

I'm Kai Rizdau. We will see

26:11

you tomorrow, everybody. This

26:32

is APM. If there's one thing we

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