0:00

Tell you what we are going

0:03

to beat the rush on

0:05

all those first 100 days

0:07

stories Where does this economy

0:09

stand on this Friday? day

0:11

95 from American public media

0:13

This is market plan In

0:23

Los Angeles, I'm Ka Rizdahl. It

0:25

is Friday today, the 25th of

0:28

April. Good as always to have

0:30

you long, everybody. Day 95, it

0:32

is a hair over three months.

0:34

On with it. We are going

0:37

to get Sadie Breddy's at Politico.

0:39

Catherine Rampel is at the

0:41

Washington Post. Hey, you too. Hey, Kay.

0:43

Catherine, you get to go first on

0:46

this no-notice question. Where

0:48

does this economy stand on

0:50

day 95? If you look

0:52

at the hard data so

0:54

far, things look okay, like

0:56

consumer spending and things like

0:58

that, but then you look

1:00

at how people feel about

1:02

the economy, what their plans

1:04

are for the economy, whether

1:06

businesses say that they can

1:08

invest in this economy, and

1:10

it's a much uglier picture. I

1:13

have to agree with Catherine here. We are

1:15

on a turning point. We're at a

1:17

turning point. We're at a turning point.

1:19

And we often talk about how monetary

1:21

policy works with a lag. Well, tariff

1:24

policy works with a lag as well.

1:26

It's just not as long and not

1:28

as variable, but there is a lag.

1:30

And we're going to see the effects

1:32

of that very soon. The dizzying nature

1:34

of where we are and the dizzying

1:36

nature of what American companies are dealing

1:39

with right now is going to ripple

1:41

through the economy. in a great place

1:43

but we're not in a disastrous place

1:45

yet. So let's talk Catherine about some

1:47

stuff we got this morning, consumer sentiment.

1:49

First of all, consumers are cranky, they've

1:51

been cranky for a long time, that's

1:53

fine, but as we know, how they're

1:56

feeling doesn't affect their spending, but here's

1:58

the thing that really got me. We,

2:00

consumers, think inflation is going to

2:02

be at six and a half

2:04

percent by the end of the

2:06

year. That is, if not catastrophic,

2:08

not really very good at all.

2:11

No, it's the worst number, the

2:13

highest number in terms of inflation

2:15

expectations since 1981 when inflation was

2:17

itself much much higher than we

2:19

are seeing today. So that's very

2:22

disturbing. There's a lot of concern

2:24

in those data in this consumer

2:26

sentiment data also about deteriorating job

2:28

prospects, deteriorating income prospects. There's a

2:31

lot that consumers are worried about.

2:33

largely driven by the trade wars

2:35

and the tariffs, but it's not

2:37

exclusively driven by those things. And

2:39

I think consumers are right to

2:42

be concerned because, as you point

2:44

out, we don't know what the

2:46

tariffs are going to be from

2:48

day to day or minute to

2:50

minute, and nobody can plan. So

2:53

Deep, the other thing in this

2:55

data that really hit me was

2:57

that 44% of consumers think we're

2:59

going to be financially worse off

3:01

in a year. And yet, and

3:04

this goes to the lagging data,

3:06

right, the markets are calm-ish today.

3:08

The White House says everything's fine.

3:10

Are consumers smarter than the White

3:12

House and smarter than the markets?

3:15

We will see that a lot

3:17

of consumers take their cues from

3:19

the mood that's generated by the

3:21

markets and it's been an up

3:23

and down mood. That is also

3:26

what happens in these moments of

3:28

tremendous volatility. People start to think,

3:30

oh, maybe things are going to

3:32

be okay. If we take another

3:34

leg down, then it's harder to

3:37

recover from each of those, particularly

3:39

when actual economic conditions are changing.

3:41

The signs are all there in

3:43

the, what's going to happen in

3:45

the ports on the west coast

3:48

and what's leaving China on ships.

3:50

The signs are all there that

3:52

the economic hurricane is coming. And

3:54

we're just waiting for it and

3:56

thinking, well, maybe it will change

3:59

course, but there's not a whole

4:01

lot right now that's suggesting it

4:03

is going to do that. All

4:05

right, Catherine Rampel, we're going to

4:07

get to something that we talked

4:10

about before the gong. You and

4:12

I were chit-chatting and Sadip, we

4:14

were all sort of kibitzing. And

4:16

one of the things we talked

4:18

about were all sort of kibitsizing.

4:21

And one of the things we

4:23

talked about. And China says, no,

4:25

no, that's not true. delicately as

4:27

I can. How can we believe

4:29

anything on trade coming out of

4:32

this White House when plainly the

4:34

president is not telling the truth?

4:36

Well, it's a really bad situation

4:38

when the public should probably be

4:40

trusting the Chinese leadership more than

4:43

American leadership in public comments about

4:45

the state of global affairs. That

4:47

in and of itself is kind

4:49

of worrying. Yeah, we cannot trust

4:51

this administration when they're talking about

4:54

tariffs. We can't, first of all,

4:56

I think they don't know what

4:58

their objectives are, right? And from

5:00

day to day, those changes, it

5:02

about raising revenue, is it about

5:05

actually through tariffs, is it actually

5:07

about using tariffs as a negotiating

5:09

tool to open up markets and

5:11

the tariffs are going to go

5:13

away? There's a lot of contradictory

5:16

messaging, I think, because there isn't

5:18

a lot of clear thinking within

5:20

the White House about these issues.

5:22

And then you think about how

5:24

other countries are responding to this,

5:27

it's very difficult to negotiate with

5:29

someone who does not know what

5:31

they want. potentially is misrepresenting the

5:33

state of play so far. The

5:35

Chinese government said it was fake

5:38

news. Right, right, right, right. That

5:40

a deal was imminent. But, you

5:42

know, in the meantime, the markets

5:44

recovered somewhat because they heard about

5:47

this sort of vaporware of a

5:49

deal and the new cycle moves

5:51

on. You know, Sudhib, I don't

5:53

know if you saw this, she

5:55

crossed the wires a little while

5:58

ago. President Trump on his way

6:00

to the Pope's funeral. said to

6:02

reporters on Air Force One, he

6:04

was asked, what do you want

6:06

out of a China trade deal?

6:09

And what he said was something

6:11

substantial. So as Catherine said, this

6:13

is vaporware. There's nothing to wrap

6:15

your arms around. And I don't

6:17

care if you're Japan or South

6:20

Korea or the Europeans or the

6:22

Chinese. You can't negotiate with nothing.

6:24

That's right. And the remarkable thing

6:26

about this moment is that American

6:28

businesses for 15 or 20 years

6:31

have been clamoring for more from

6:33

the White House. put pressure on

6:35

China for fairer trade to prevent

6:37

IP theft and intellectual property theft.

6:39

All of that really does matter

6:42

to American businesses. What they were

6:44

not expecting was to have a

6:46

death blow to the global trading

6:48

system as it says right now

6:50

and have no real clarity about

6:53

what's going to come next. You

6:55

can't. look day to day, hour

6:57

to hour at the messages coming

6:59

out from the president or the

7:01

White House and have any confidence

7:04

that this is, there's some system

7:06

to where this is going to

7:08

come out in the end. It's

7:10

possible that the truth will be

7:12

declared within days, but it does

7:15

not seem likely and there are

7:17

no signals that that's going to

7:19

happen, and that has got to

7:21

be very worrying if you're actually

7:23

trying to plan weeks or months

7:26

in advance to keep the economy

7:28

of float. wherever you are sitting

7:30

in the economy. Catherine Rampel, last

7:32

question to you. You said we're

7:34

on the brink. It's not looking

7:37

very good. It's worth a mention

7:39

here that given our fiscal situation,

7:41

lots of debt, and given the

7:43

risks of inflation with a stagnant

7:45

economy, Congress isn't going to be

7:48

able to help us. Congress doesn't

7:50

seem keen on helping us, right?

7:52

Congress wants to increase deficits quite

7:54

a bit more through tax cuts

7:56

and some budgetary games that the

7:59

Senate in particular is playing right

8:01

now, which I'm sure listeners will

8:03

hear a lot more about a

8:05

couple of months, but the Fed,

8:07

I think, wants to help. It

8:10

just won't have the tools to

8:12

deal with the situation that we're

8:14

heading into, which is likely to

8:16

be higher prices and slower growth,

8:18

and the remedy for one of

8:21

those issues is the opposite of

8:23

the remedy for the other. So

8:25

the Fed is in a very

8:27

difficult position. Thanks for your time.

8:29

Have a nice weekend. Thanks, Kay.

8:32

See you. Wall Street, end of

8:34

the week, it was calm-ish. We'll

8:36

have the details when we do

8:38

the numbers. In

9:03

times such as these, uncertain, scary,

9:05

chaotic, the gut instinct is to

9:07

look for something stable, something secure,

9:10

something safe, a safe haven, if

9:12

you will. For us, business and

9:14

economically minded as we are, that

9:16

has traditionally been US Treasury bonds

9:18

and the dollar. Not so much

9:20

anymore for both of those, as

9:23

we've been covering. But there is

9:25

one investment that's been solid, the

9:27

asset that people have been taken

9:29

to the bank since before there

9:31

were banks. Gold has been on

9:33

a steady march upward since January,

9:35

hit an all-time high this week

9:38

in point of fact. So at

9:40

a moment when nearly everything else

9:42

is looking so dull, why is

9:44

gold so shiny? Our special correspondent

9:46

Stacey Vanigsmith has the story. In

9:48

the heart of New York's diamond

9:50

district, in Little Second Floor Shop,

9:53

Oastry Rubin is sifting through some

9:55

of the business that has come

9:57

in this week. On the

9:59

desk right now, I have...

10:01

a sort of type of

10:03

jewelry. An earring that went

10:05

missing, you know, a lot

10:07

of different cool rings. This

10:09

ring here had a gold

10:11

coin inside. So, Ruven owns

10:14

Global Gold and Silver, which

10:16

buys up gold jewelry and

10:18

coins and trinkets from people

10:20

and sells them, mostly to

10:22

be melted down. There's a

10:24

beautiful charm bracelet here with

10:26

a lot of cool charms,

10:28

shoes, horseshoes. A little typewriter.

10:30

A Reuben's business has doubled

10:32

in the last eight weeks.

10:34

People are flocking to his

10:37

shop, hoping to cash in

10:39

on this moment. Maybe 20

10:41

minutes ago, gentlemen brought in,

10:43

watch, that was 18, card,

10:45

that was dismantled. And this

10:47

is the moment to cash

10:49

in. Gold prices have risen

10:51

almost 30% this year, which

10:53

means each of the little

10:55

plastic containers brimming with jewelry

10:57

sitting on Reuben's desk is

10:59

worth a lot. This is

11:02

like thousands of dollars that

11:04

we're looking at. Yes, yes.

11:06

I'll even weigh it for

11:08

you. But you have here.

11:10

You have about 191 grams

11:12

of gold. So, a little

11:14

over $11,000. It's $11,000 in

11:16

this. It's like one of

11:18

those very small Tupperwares. Tupperwarebin,

11:20

yeah, exactly. Like a little

11:22

tiny one. That's like a...

11:25

It is the size of

11:27

a block of cream cheese.

11:29

In $11,000 block of cream

11:31

cheese. But it is not

11:33

just jewelry owners cashing in

11:35

on gold's glow-up. Institutional investors

11:37

and even central banks are

11:39

stockpiling gold right now. Juan

11:41

Carlos Artigas heads research at

11:43

the World Gold Council. trade

11:45

policies from the US administration,

11:47

they have generated uncertainty. And

11:50

that uncertainty has investors looking

11:52

for a safe haven. The

11:54

Trump administration's tariff policies will

11:56

likely raise prices, push inflation

11:58

up. And that makes putting

12:00

money into savings risky, because

12:02

it could lose value sitting

12:04

there. to say nothing of

12:06

locking those dollars away for

12:08

10 years in a US

12:10

government bond. And volatile markets

12:13

mean buying stocks right now

12:15

is more of a gamble

12:17

than usual. So where's an

12:19

investor to turn? Gold has

12:21

been a safe haven for

12:23

centuries, right? We estimate that

12:25

there's more than $250 billion

12:27

traded in gold every day.

12:29

That is a really large

12:31

number, right? Right now investors

12:33

are going back to the

12:36

future. guarding themselves against the

12:38

ups and downs of policy

12:40

whims, tariffs, global markets, by

12:42

stashing their cash in an

12:44

asset used by pharaohs and

12:46

silk road traders thousands of

12:48

years ago. Gold is something

12:50

that right away over the

12:52

counter you could get paid

12:54

for it. Meanwhile at Global

12:56

Gold and Silver, all of

12:58

Oastry Rubin's containers full of

13:01

jewelry have got me thinking

13:03

about some of the orphaned

13:05

earrings I have collecting dust

13:07

in my jewelry box. What

13:09

about like the little gold

13:11

hoops? Like are those actually

13:13

worth much? You know, asking

13:15

for the sake of journalism.

13:17

So this is about one

13:19

gram of 14-carred gold. That's

13:21

about $60. Still, $60. You

13:24

could at least get lunch

13:26

in New York for 60

13:28

bucks. Definitely. or a couple

13:30

of strong Friday cocktails at

13:32

the end of a very

13:34

long week. Solid Gold in

13:36

my book. In New York,

13:38

I'm Stacey Vannek Smith for

13:40

Marketplace. Time and time again

13:42

that his tariffs are going

13:44

to get consumers and companies

13:46

to buy American. Consumers and

13:49

companies here and consumers and

13:51

companies abroad. And one of

13:53

the industries he's mentioned is

13:55

cattle ranching. So we decided

13:57

to see whether American beef

13:59

has found greener pastures. Here's

14:01

today's installment of our series,

14:03

My Economy. My name is

14:05

Nathan Bradford. I'm a primary

14:07

cow calf operation here in

14:09

the state of Oklahoma. I'm

14:12

the owner and operator of

14:14

Geline Ranch. So pretty much

14:16

all my life I've been

14:18

ranching, you know, we've finally

14:20

bought our first ranch in

14:22

about 2003. You know, of

14:24

course, it's taken 20, 20-something

14:26

years, really, to get to

14:28

this point. And, you know,

14:30

it's not, it's not been

14:32

an easy deal. Had a

14:34

lot of challenges. We dealt

14:37

with extreme drought conditions. We

14:39

dealt with high pay prices.

14:41

And, you know, then no

14:43

water. Oh, man, there was

14:45

just, you know, three, three-strand

14:47

fence, cattle constantly out. My

14:49

brothers and I. We just

14:51

seemed like a whole we

14:53

ever did was chase cows.

14:59

It's a good time to be

15:01

in the ranching businesses, honestly. Terrorist

15:03

right now for the rancher, in

15:05

my opinion, has worked in a

15:08

little bit in our favor. Never

15:10

seen it like this. When we

15:12

get $2,100, $2,100 for 500 pounds,

15:15

but these cattle prices will come

15:17

down. at some point when I

15:19

don't know and how far I

15:21

can tell you but I do

15:24

know we'll have less of process

15:26

and we're going to be dealing

15:28

with higher inputs and I don't

15:30

know how we're going to be

15:33

able to absorb that and stay

15:35

in so you really have to

15:37

brace yourself for what's to come

15:40

next right and so that's what

15:42

we are doing right now trying

15:44

to make sure we stay sustainable

15:46

something that's been very very hard

15:49

and challenged for us to do.

15:52

When you think about the block

15:55

rancher in today's time, there's not

15:57

really many of them. was out

15:59

here. And I remember back doing

16:01

the worst snowstorm freeze that we

16:04

ever experienced in the state of

16:06

Oklahoma, which was around 2020, I

16:08

believe. My kids, we had heifers

16:11

cabin out and in the snow

16:13

and in the freezing. And they

16:15

stood, you know, stood their ground.

16:17

They made it happen during a

16:20

pandemic. And I just think about

16:22

you know my daughter and my

16:24

wife in the house keeping everything

16:27

warm and when you look at

16:29

the experience and the knowledge that

16:31

a black family that I you

16:33

know that I have that done

16:36

that there's not a lot out

16:38

there with that kind of experience

16:40

and so it's very important for

16:42

me to make sure that we

16:45

are trying to build something that's

16:47

going to be sustainable because at

16:49

the end of the day we

16:52

could be the last black ranch.

16:56

Nathan Bradford G line

16:58

ranch your bowling, Oklahoma.

17:01

Tell us about your

17:03

economy would you marketplace.org

17:05

Pull over and give

17:07

it a kiss. Loose

17:09

lips, sink ships? First

17:11

though, let's do the

17:13

numbers. Dow Industrial is

17:15

up 20 points, essentially

17:17

flat, closed at 40,

17:19

113, did the blue

17:21

chips. The NASDAQ up

17:23

216. Up 2016 points,

17:26

1.2 percent, 17,300 to

17:28

and 82. For the

17:30

week on by, the

17:32

Dow up just shy

17:34

of 2.5 percent. Yes,

17:36

I did skip the

17:38

S&P. Tacked on 40.

17:40

Seven 10. for the

17:42

week up 6.7% the

17:44

S&P 500 rose 4.6%

17:46

Here's a sentence you

17:48

will read in many

17:51

companies quarterly reports these

17:53

days quote macro economic

17:55

uncertainty stemming from global

17:57

trade policies That one

17:59

happened to come from

18:01

sketches the shoemaker withdrew.

18:03

It's full-year guidance and

18:05

reported weaker than expected

18:07

revenue sketches down more

18:09

than 5% They bond

18:11

prices went up the

18:13

yield on the 10-year

18:15

T note thus went

18:18

down 4 and a

18:20

quarter percent 4.25% on

18:22

the 10-year. You're listening

18:24

to marketplace This

18:38

is Marketplace. I'm Kai Rizdom. Alphabet

18:40

reported quarterly profits yesterday. Google, of

18:43

course, is its biggest name subsidiary.

18:45

A little bit farther down the

18:48

org chart, though, is Waymo, which

18:50

is now doing, we learned, about

18:52

250,000 paid Robotaxi rides each and

18:55

every week. That is five times

18:57

as many as it was doing

18:59

a year ago. Autonomous vehicles are

19:02

increasingly showing up on our roads,

19:04

and as marketplace as Kimberly Adams

19:06

reports, The White House has big

19:09

plans for more. On Thursday, the

19:11

Department of Transportation rolled out its

19:13

new automated vehicle framework with the

19:16

goal of making it easier and

19:18

faster for companies to get AVs

19:20

on the roads. This is no

19:23

longer science fiction. You now have

19:25

autonomous vehicles that have driven more

19:27

than 100 million miles autonomously on

19:30

public roads. Jeff Ferra is CEO

19:32

of the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association.

19:34

He says 25 states representing more

19:37

than half the US population have

19:39

A.V. regulations on the books. But

19:41

what's been lacking is a federal

19:44

policy framework that clarifies the rules

19:46

of the road. One of the

19:48

Department of Transportation's changes in the

19:51

new framework would expand a program

19:53

that allowed imported AVs used for

19:56

research and testing to be exempt

19:58

from some safety rules. Now American-made

20:00

AVs will get that perk as

20:03

well. auto is with S&P Global.

20:05

We're in an environment now where

20:07

the focus on autonomous vehicles is

20:10

looking to be focused much more

20:12

around US company is based on

20:14

some of the tariff dialogue that's

20:17

happening in the market. But even

20:19

if government and industry are ready

20:21

to speed up adoption, most people

20:24

still aren't quite there yet. Only

20:26

13% of Americans are saying that

20:28

they would trust a fully self-driving

20:31

vehicle to ride in one. Greg

20:33

Brannon is director of automotive research

20:35

for AAA. It's not an overall

20:38

mistrust of the technology. We have

20:40

hypothesized it as primarily around the

20:42

fear of letting go. Brannon says

20:45

almost two-thirds of U.S. drivers are

20:47

still afraid of AVs. In Washington,

20:49

I'm Kimberly Adams for marketplace. What

20:52

do you get when you take

20:54

a 53,000 to ton boat that's

20:57

longer? What do you get when

20:59

you take a 53,000 to ton

21:01

boat that's longer than three football

21:04

fields laid end to end and

21:06

you sink it? What do you

21:08

get is a maritime business opportunity

21:11

without compare? Irena Jorov reports. Chris

21:13

Corsentino was four years old when

21:15

he sailed from New York to

21:18

Germany for his dad's army assignment

21:20

aboard the SS United States in

21:22

1959. I remember being in the

21:25

playroom with my brother. They had

21:27

hobby horses with wheels and we

21:29

would get on those little hobby

21:32

horses on one up against the

21:34

wall and wait for the ship

21:36

to hit a swell and then

21:39

we rolled down to the other

21:41

side. The ship was taken out

21:43

of service in 1969 and it

21:46

sat for decades at various ports

21:48

around the country. But last year,

21:50

Florida's Okaloosa County purchased the ship.

21:53

and it's now anchored in Mobile

21:55

Alabama. Its next life is going

21:58

to be underwater as the world's

22:00

largest artificial reef. But before it

22:02

sunk, workers must strip anything non-metal

22:05

off the ship and clean out

22:07

contaminants like old fuel. Eventually, the

22:09

giant ocean liner will be towed

22:12

and then sunk off the coast

22:14

of Destin Florida, says Okaloosa County's

22:16

natural resources chief, Alex Fogg. by

22:19

creating a reef with something as

22:21

iconic as the SS United States,

22:23

it's going to bring a lot

22:26

of people to the destination to

22:28

go fishing and diving. The Florida

22:30

coast is full of artificial reefs,

22:33

from cement pyramids to even some

22:35

smaller ships. So it'll be kind

22:37

of that, you know, flagship, if

22:40

you will, for our artificial reef

22:42

program. In other words, it'll be

22:44

a marketing bonanza. Fogg expects the

22:47

SS United States alone will bring

22:49

in about $5 million in annual

22:51

economic impact to the region. In

22:54

all Florida's artificial reefs foster an

22:56

estimated $3.1 billion recreation and tourism

22:59

industry. For now, as preparations for

23:01

the big sink continue, the ship

23:03

is generating a little tourism boom

23:06

in Mobile, too. Now that the

23:08

ship is here, we've done, in

23:10

March, we took out 1,500 two

23:13

people to see it. Willie Jones

23:15

is the captain of a riverboat

23:17

called the Perdido Queen. Usually he

23:20

takes people out for dinner cruises

23:22

on the Mobile River, but his

23:24

most popular tour now is to

23:27

the SS United States. His little

23:29

riverboat gets up close to the

23:31

hulking ship. Most of these people

23:34

are coming from out of town,

23:36

so they're staying in the hotels,

23:38

eating at the restaurants. It's been

23:41

a big influx for everybody. Some

23:43

50 people climb aboard the Perdido

23:45

Queen on a Friday afternoon. Jones

23:48

blasts the horn as he departs.

23:50

About 10 minutes later, the ship

23:52

comes into view. John Robatize our

23:55

guide. The SS United States, 990

23:57

feet in length, making her 100

24:00

feet longer than the Titanic. Visitors

24:02

come out to gaze at the

24:04

imposing wall of black metal that

24:07

rises before them. From the ship's

24:09

deck, workers look like ants. They

24:11

wave at the tourists. Chris Corsentino,

24:14

who sailed on the SS United

24:16

States as a four-year-old, says this

24:18

is his second time taking the

24:21

tour. It's an old dame. It's

24:23

beautiful. It's like an old friend.

24:25

I feel like I should pull

24:28

over and give it a kiss.

24:30

He's one of five people on

24:32

this tour who had spent time

24:35

on the ship when it was

24:37

in service and who came to

24:39

say goodbye before the SS United

24:42

States descends to the ocean floor.

24:44

In Mobile Alabama, I'm Irina Jorov

24:46

for Marketplace. This

24:59

final note on the way out today

25:01

comes to us from the ports of

25:03

Los Angeles and Long Beach whence you

25:06

will remember We did a bunch of

25:08

reporting in the dark supply chain days

25:10

of the pandemic ships at anchor by

25:12

the dozen down there waiting to get

25:15

in Well come the first week of

25:17

May and Sudip alluded to this at

25:19

the top of the program the CEO

25:22

of the port of Long Beach. It's

25:24

two separate ports down there, but that's

25:26

a technicality anyway He says the Long

25:28

Beach guy says that in the first

25:31

week of May The whole complex is

25:33

going to see a 44% drop in

25:35

container ship traffic from a year ago,

25:37

which, when you think about it, makes

25:40

sense because at current tariff rates, there

25:42

is basically a trade embargo in place

25:44

between the two biggest economies in the

25:46

world. Our theme music

25:48

was composed by B.J. Liederman, Marketplace's executive

25:51

producer is Nancy Fargali Donna Tam is

25:53

the executive editor Neil Scarborough's vice president

25:55

and general manager And I'm Kaa Rizna.

25:57

I'll have yourselves a great weekend And

25:59

we will see

26:02

you back here we will

26:04

right? see it back here on

26:06

Monday, all right? This is a PM.

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