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capella .edu. Capella.EDU. On

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the show show today, national

0:52

national security, insurance in

0:54

the climate crisis, and

0:57

uncertainty as an

0:59

economic indicator. From American

1:01

public media, this

1:03

is is marketplace. In

1:13

In Baltimore, I'm Amy Amy Scott Kai Rizdahl.

1:15

It's Thursday, It's Thursday, January Good to

1:17

Good to have you with us.

1:20

With just days left in his administration,

1:23

President Joe Biden is reportedly

1:25

preparing new rules to limit

1:27

the flow of the .S. artificial

1:29

intelligence technology around the world. around

1:31

The rules are aimed at

1:33

preventing adversaries like China and

1:35

Russia from accessing AI chips.

1:37

AI chips. tech industry that makes

1:39

and sells those chips, though,

1:41

is not too pleased. Sabree

1:44

Beneshaw reports. AI chips can go

1:46

can go into phones, they can

1:48

also go into drones. is a Scott

1:50

Jones is a senior non fellow at the

1:52

Stimson Center. Semi-conductors will

1:54

be at the very heart

1:56

of of fighting capability the next

1:58

generation. generation. He says that concern has been

2:00

at the heart of the Biden Biden

2:02

efforts to limit the spread of AI the

2:04

and chip -making capabilities. Any day now,

2:06

it's expected to announce a new set

2:09

of rules. announce a new it does is it it does

2:11

is it buckets into different groups. Allen Allen

2:13

is with the Center for Strategic

2:15

and International Studies. Some U .S. U.S.

2:17

would get advanced AI chips, no

2:19

problem. Other countries, including China, wouldn't

2:21

be allowed to get them get

2:24

all. all. And And then there's the the group

2:26

of countries that are in the middle. middle.

2:28

And they they are subject

2:30

to certain restrictions on the

2:32

conditions under which those exports

2:34

of AI chips can take

2:36

place and also also the overall

2:38

quantities of AI chips that

2:40

can be sold. further than rules go

2:42

further than previous attempts to control

2:44

tech. Peter Lichtenbaum is a partner a

2:47

firm Covington law firm started out

2:49

with China. It But now with

2:51

looking but now we're the U .S.

2:53

seeking to regulate globally

2:55

the diffusion of these these chips.

2:57

Some tech companies are not happy with

2:59

what's known so far about the

3:01

rules. a It's a really bad idea. is

3:03

Oxman is president of the Information

3:05

Technology Industry Council, which represents, among others,

3:07

Apple, Intel, and Amazon. Intel, and we're

3:09

not just talking about limiting access

3:11

to countries of concern. concern. We're

3:13

we're talking about limiting access to our allies

3:16

around the world. world. Forcing them, he

3:18

says, to look elsewhere and undermining

3:20

U .S. industrial dominance. So far,

3:22

the Biden administration's efforts to

3:24

control the spread of AI the

3:26

have actually slowed China's development of

3:28

the technology, says CSIS's Gregory Gregory

3:31

Allen. is looking pretty stuck. China may

3:33

But China may retaliate with

3:35

its own export controls and sanctions

3:37

against the the .S. New New York,

3:39

I'm I'm Sabri Beneshore for Marketplace.

3:41

Marketplace. On

3:45

Wall Wall Street, numbers numbers from U

3:47

.S. stock markets which which closed

3:49

for the national day of Morning for

3:51

former Jimmy Carter. We'll have other

3:53

details when we do the

3:55

numbers. do the numbers. Wildfires

4:24

continue to burn in

4:26

Los Angeles County with dangerous

4:29

weather conditions expected through tomorrow

4:31

night. At least At

4:33

people have died, have died. An

4:35

early estimates suggest the economic

4:37

damage could exceed $50

4:39

billion. The fires The a will

4:41

be a huge test for

4:44

California's already property insurance market.

4:46

Ben Keys is a professor of

4:48

real estate and finance at

4:50

the Wharton School. Welcome to the

4:52

program. Thanks for having me. me.

4:54

So Ben, these fires are burning as

4:56

California's in the midst of the midst

4:58

of a really a insurance crisis. How

5:00

would you describe the situation there?

5:02

there? Yeah, I think I think the

5:04

crisis really comes from the household

5:06

level. California's insurance market

5:08

has been very tightly regulated

5:10

for a long time, and

5:12

that's made the market generally

5:14

favorable for consumers. But

5:17

climate change induced disasters in

5:19

recent years have really have

5:21

that system. It's led a

5:23

number of large insurers to

5:25

exit the state or circumscribe

5:27

where they write policies, and

5:29

it's pushed a lot of

5:31

homeowners into into the insurer of

5:33

last resort, the fair plan. plan.

5:35

Yeah, I I I think at think

5:37

at the Financial Times today

5:39

that the fair plan plan of

5:42

the end of September had

5:44

almost $6 billion of exposure

5:46

of in the Pacific the Pacific Palisades

5:48

fires are burning. these fires How

5:50

does California absorb these losses?

5:52

Well Well, historically, these

5:54

types of fair plans were designed

5:56

to be a a -Aid on

5:58

the insurance market. and in the

6:01

last few years, years, they expanded way

6:03

beyond their initial intended use.

6:05

The fair plan in California has

6:07

grown from about $50 billion

6:09

of exposure in 2018, up

6:11

to over $450 billion of

6:14

of exposure as of this September.

6:16

So a So a ninefold increase. And

6:18

I I think the question is going to

6:20

be whether that system is able is

6:22

a shock as large as this one

6:24

we'll see We'll see. what the the final tally

6:26

is in terms of damages, but this

6:28

is a system where commissioner of the system of

6:31

the system clear been very clear about

6:33

saying that the rates are not set

6:35

in a competitive manner and they they also

6:37

Don't have much of a a cushion and

6:39

so that means that that means rest of

6:41

the state is likely on the hook

6:43

on the losses are large enough and

6:46

you can think of that as you can

6:48

indirect tax on

6:50

other California on other California homeowners.

6:52

At the end of last year,

6:54

California's insurance commissioner, Ricardo Ricardo put in

6:56

some new policies to try to

6:58

stabilize the market and expand coverage

7:00

in areas prone to wildfires. you talk

7:03

Can you talk about some of

7:05

those changes and whether you expect that

7:07

to help in this situation? situation? I

7:09

mean, has been very tightly

7:11

regulated in number of

7:13

ways, and part of this goes

7:15

back to to proposition that was passed

7:17

in the 1980s. It's been difficult

7:20

for insurers to operate in the

7:22

ways that they would like when

7:24

it comes to setting their policy

7:26

premiums also the types of types of information

7:28

that they're allowed to use to use

7:30

when those premiums. so And so has

7:32

been very restrictive in terms of in

7:35

on backwards backwards

7:37

looking data rather than on

7:40

some of the sophisticated catastrophe

7:42

models and we've seen the

7:44

climate evolving so rapidly especially

7:46

for disasters like wildfires insurers

7:48

have been desperate to use

7:50

more information that they they have

7:52

at their fingertips when setting

7:54

premiums. I think these reforms

7:56

are likely to bring more

7:58

insurers back to the table. This

8:00

This is largely what they were

8:02

looking for, but a large disaster

8:05

like this one is going to

8:07

make them question whether it makes it makes

8:09

sense to write policies in some

8:11

of these risky areas, and then

8:13

then what's the right price? What's

8:15

the right premium for policies that

8:17

are exposed to wildfires? to wildfires? As you and

8:20

I have talked you and I have

8:22

talked is not just a this is not

8:24

just a California issue. around the around

8:26

the country are seeing their premiums

8:28

go up or getting non non-renewal notices. As

8:30

these disasters increase, do do you think

8:32

we're any closer to solving this

8:34

problem? Well, we haven't we haven't really

8:37

set out a list of policy

8:39

solutions. We're still comes early stage when

8:41

it comes to addressing these problems.

8:43

I think we're still in the

8:45

diagnosis phase, and you look

8:47

at a very splintered regulatory landscape.

8:49

the state Insurance is regulated at the

8:52

state level. plays a federal government plays

8:54

a relatively small role in insurance

8:56

markets. I think we need a

8:58

much more more approach that combines local,

9:00

state, state, and a federal data and

9:03

information policymakers and from industry to wrap our

9:05

wrap our hands around the problem.

9:07

then we we need to think about

9:09

broad -based measures to stabilize the

9:11

market, make it much more affordable

9:13

and accessible for the average homeowner. the

9:16

average All right. Ben Ben Keys teaches estate

9:18

and finance at Wharton. Thank you

9:20

so much for your time. for your

9:22

so much. so much. If

9:51

you were you were to tally up the

9:53

most common words we've used on this

9:55

show over the last handful of years,

9:58

years would surely rank high on the

10:00

list. We've used used that word to describe

10:02

what's happening in the housing market, the

10:04

labor market, the stock market, really

10:06

any corner of the economy.

10:08

I mean, honestly, I can't remember

10:10

a time when things didn't

10:12

feel uncertain. feel Right now, though,

10:14

with the climate crisis and wars

10:16

and a new administration coming in,

10:18

promising some big policy changes,

10:20

it feels maybe extra uncertain. But how

10:22

But how do you even

10:24

measure that? Marketplaces Kristen Schwab talked

10:26

to some people who try. try.

10:28

Uncertainty is a tricky thing measure, because is

10:30

it a feeling or is it a it

10:32

a fact? out it's a Turns out, both. it's a

10:34

bit of both. to measure You really want

10:37

to measure you want you want to know what

10:39

in people's heads. Nick Bloom is an economist

10:41

at Stanford and he says, and

10:43

he says yeah can survey people's sentiment.

10:45

Economists do this to do this

10:47

consumer spending. But to measure uncertainty

10:50

about everything is a big a

10:52

big task. task. So you have have to

10:54

get something kind of a proxy for... for this.

10:56

Blooms actually developed a method of

10:58

measurement called the Economic Policy

11:00

Uncertainty Index, and it gets its

11:02

data from the news. data from

11:04

that actually It the number of articles.

11:06

number of that talk about the

11:08

economy, talk about policy, and

11:10

mention the word word uncertainty. Yep, I

11:12

am an I am an uncertainty

11:14

influencer, which kind of makes sense

11:17

if you think about who

11:19

we interview, policy makers, business owners and

11:21

consumers. Laura Laura Jackson an an

11:23

economist at Bentley says there

11:25

are some other ways to measure

11:27

uncertainty. uncertainty. volatility in financial

11:29

markets, professional forecasters looking

11:31

at. looking at variation in forecast

11:34

errors. or we can we can

11:36

really just think about how it's

11:38

affecting firm and household decision making. Measuring

11:41

uncertainty is similar to measuring the

11:43

economy, but economists separate the

11:45

two because of of uncertainties effect. For

11:47

example, a high level of uncertainty

11:49

might mean companies hire less less

11:51

consumers spend less. less. And it's And

11:53

it's kind of like that can

11:55

lead to this like snowball situation where it

11:57

further exacerbates uncertainty. uncertainty. Uncertainty brief.

12:00

uncertainty, which is

12:02

maybe why lately

12:05

it kind of

12:07

feels like everything

12:09

has been uncertain

12:12

all the time

12:14

forever. Like, when's

12:17

the last time

12:19

you didn't feel

12:22

uncertain about the

12:24

economy? That's an

12:27

excellent question. Oh

12:29

gosh. Hmm. Right

12:32

now, according to

12:34

the Economic Policy

12:37

Uncertainty Index, uncertainty

12:39

is down from

12:41

its all-time high

12:44

in May of

12:46

2020, but still

12:49

twice the historical

12:51

average. I'm Kristen

12:54

Schwab for marketplace.

12:56

Coming up! It's

13:00

in its early stage. So most

13:02

of the parts they are in

13:04

port. It takes time building up

13:06

a local industry. First though, let's

13:08

do the numbers. US markets are

13:10

closed today as part of the

13:12

National Day of Morning for former

13:14

President Jimmy Carter. There is also

13:16

no regular mail delivery, but banks

13:18

were open. After falling 1% yesterday,

13:21

oil prices gained back that and

13:23

then some by midday today. I

13:25

was partially in response to a

13:27

cold snap in parts of the

13:29

US and Europe. Brent crude futures

13:31

were up more than a dollar

13:33

to more than $77 a barrel.

13:35

US West Texas intermediate crude futures

13:37

were up almost a dollar as

13:39

well to more. than $74 a

13:41

barrel. The 30-year mortgage rate climbed

13:43

to its highest level since July,

13:45

6.93 percent, Freddie Mac reported today.

13:47

As we often talk about on

13:49

the show, mortgage rates tend to

13:51

relate to the yield on 10-year

13:53

treasury bonds, which have been rising

13:55

for the past month, but fell

13:57

a bit today to 4. You're

13:59

You're listening to

14:01

Marketplace. This

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up today. This is is

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Marketplace, I'm Amy Amy Scott. we talked

16:21

As we talked about earlier,

16:23

the damage from the wildfires

16:25

raging in Southern California could

16:27

reach reach billion or more. It's

16:30

expected to be the costliest wildfire

16:32

disaster ever in this country. That's

16:35

partly because of climate -driven weather

16:37

conditions and also because of shortcomings

16:39

in infrastructure that make it harder

16:41

to prevent and respond to fires. to

16:43

fires. Kayleigh Wells looked at what

16:45

it would take to avoid a

16:48

catastrophe like this the future. like this

16:50

in the Let's start with the immediate

16:52

answer. Fire prone areas could

16:54

use more could says firefighters, says an

16:56

urban planning professor at UCLA. professor at

16:58

UCLA. course, a reason

17:00

why we don't have more

17:02

firefighting is it's incredibly expensive. And

17:04

of the time, you wouldn't need those

17:06

extra people. For example, the For in Hawaii

17:09

lasted less than a day. There's

17:11

also the issue of getting enough water to the

17:13

flames. enough water systems are

17:15

Water systems are to address your

17:17

run of the mill, house

17:19

fires, mall fires. fires, small but

17:21

not near the capacity that you'd

17:23

have to have to have for a welfare. In LA,

17:26

some some fire hydrants ran dry. says

17:28

Pierce says the the fire sparked,

17:30

it was going to be devastating

17:32

no matter what. no matter As for

17:34

avoiding the devastation, next time, Erica

17:36

Fisher says the key is mitigation. key

17:38

is She teaches civil and construction

17:40

engineering at Oregon State University. engineering The

17:42

whole goal of University. The

17:44

whole within the community and

17:46

to within the the intensity

17:48

of the fire. intensity of

17:51

the fire it so that we can

17:53

fight fight fire. And And since most buildings

17:55

are homes, that means getting residents

17:57

on board. board. Stephen is a professor

17:59

of city. and regional planning at UC who says one

18:01

deterrent is cost. I mean, if we're mean, if

18:03

we're talking about home hardening, that's

18:06

tens of thousands of dollars, even

18:08

hundreds of thousands of dollars. Another Another

18:10

deterrent, he says, is aesthetic. Residents

18:12

resist home hardening because they don't

18:14

want to destroy the big tree in

18:16

the front yard or get rid

18:19

of their beautiful wooden porch. porch. For

18:21

better or worse, Collier says the insurance

18:23

crisis in wildfire prone areas has started

18:25

to force these mitigation efforts to

18:27

happen anyway. anyway. Whether it's because you've got

18:29

non got or because all to sudden

18:31

you're paying $5 ,000 paying $5,000 or ,000 people

18:33

are just people are just aware that

18:35

this is something that they need

18:38

to do because of insurance. Collier

18:40

says the last solution that nobody

18:42

wants to talk about is rethinking

18:44

our current land use because fewer

18:46

homes in in areas means fewer resources

18:48

spent fighting to save and rebuild

18:50

them. them. I'm Kayleigh Wells

18:52

for Marketplace. MUSIC

19:18

In Thailand, the economy is still

19:20

recovering from widespread flooding last

19:22

year. It's estimated to have cost

19:24

around $2.5 a half billion dollars.

19:26

The Thai government recently announced

19:28

more help for small businesses more

19:30

more spending on infrastructure. Even Even

19:32

before the floods, a key part

19:34

of Thailand's plan to boost

19:36

its economy has been growing the

19:38

country's production of electric vehicles. Marketplace's

19:41

Jennifer Jennifer Pack that story. story.

19:43

Thailand is a regional auto

19:45

manufacturing hub, mainly for Japanese

19:47

gas -powered cars and pickup trucks.

19:49

That's why why sometimes called called

19:51

of of Asia. But are are

19:53

tough, for least for those

19:55

who work making gas -powered cars,

19:57

says says motorcycle taxi driver. Natapol

19:59

Balo He lives near a

20:01

cluster of auto factories and

20:03

suppliers in eastern Thailand. in

20:06

eastern Thailand. Business is very bad. A is

20:08

very bad. A lot of

20:10

people have lost their jobs. Factories

20:12

have closed down. down. Overall vehicle

20:14

production dropped by by 20% in the

20:17

first 11 months of last year,

20:19

compared to the previous year. year.

20:21

Thailand's weak economy means banks are

20:23

tightening the criteria for car loans,

20:25

and fewer consumers are buying new

20:27

cars. buying But sales of EVs are

20:29

holding up better than those of

20:31

gas vehicles. So So is is on

20:34

EV manufacturing. Of more than

20:36

a million vehicles produced in the country

20:38

in the first 10 months of

20:40

last year, 10 months of last year, 170, were electric

20:42

or hybrid. It has a policy. By

20:44

By 2030, all vehicles of all vehicles

20:46

manufactured in Thailand will be electric. to

20:48

meet to meet that goal, it

20:50

needs help from a country with

20:52

an advanced EV industry. You

20:54

can see that Thailand goes

20:56

all out in pursuing the

20:58

Chinese investor. Pavita is a

21:01

professor of international business at

21:03

Tamasat University in Bangkok. She

21:05

says the Thai government not

21:07

only offers EV not tax incentives

21:09

to set up factories, but

21:11

also factories, for Thai riff cut for

21:13

in China. car in in China, she

21:15

says, can also be imported

21:17

into Thailand with zero tariffs. zero

21:19

It's part of an existing free

21:21

trade agreement between China and

21:24

10 Southeast Asian countries. China's EV

21:26

makers have invested over $1 .4

21:28

billion in Thailand over the last

21:30

couple of years. of years. Chinese

21:32

giant giant a unveiled a

21:34

sprawling factory last year in Ryong

21:37

The firm and other Chinese EV

21:39

EV are keen to find more

21:41

markets since their cars face cars

21:44

face tariffs in the U .S.

21:46

and are effectively shut shut BYD

21:48

Thailand turned down my interview request.

21:50

request. Further near near another Chinese

21:52

EV factory for MG, local some

21:55

local businesses are worried that Chinese

21:57

investment won't trickle down to

21:59

the wider economy Chinese people who wouldn't

22:01

come to shops. These days,

22:04

I see Chinese people renting

22:06

shops to do business. Their

22:08

staff is Chinese, the customers

22:10

are Chinese, but Chinese people

22:12

wouldn't come to shops, say

22:14

like hours, and buy motorcycles.

22:16

And something similar could happen

22:18

in EV manufacturing, says Professor

22:21

Pavita. because Chinese companies can

22:23

also set up their own

22:25

suppliers and then import parts

22:27

in here without really creating

22:29

the supply chain that the

22:31

Japanese have helped created in

22:33

Thailand. The Thai government requires

22:36

EV-makers to source 40% of

22:38

car parts locally, but that

22:40

isn't happening just yet. According

22:42

to economist, grain-cried Té Shackenon

22:44

in Bangkok. It's in its

22:46

early stage, so most of

22:48

the parts they are in

22:51

port. But at least high

22:53

consumers are getting a good

22:55

deal. The government here subsidizes

22:57

EV prices to make them

22:59

more affordable. Tassanaban Ratanavulsam paid

23:01

$20,000 for her BYD model.

23:03

She thought it was a

23:06

fair price, and she's delighted

23:08

with how much she's saving

23:10

on running costs. Maybe not

23:12

a month. Per month, I

23:14

used to spend about $150

23:16

on petrol for my car.

23:18

Now I paid just $44

23:21

to charge the EV. As

23:23

a consumer, she's happy to

23:25

have more choices, but as

23:27

a salesperson for Japanese gas-powered

23:29

cars, she's worried. More Chinese

23:31

EV investment is not a

23:33

good thing, because when Chinese

23:36

brands come, take up prices

23:38

to sell more EVs, and

23:40

it hurts the Japanese car

23:42

industry. But the Thai government

23:44

doesn't have a lot of

23:46

leverage to rein in Chinese

23:48

EV makers. For now, its

23:51

focus is just to be

23:53

a part of the global

23:55

EV supply chain. In Bangkok,

23:57

I'm Jennifer Pack for Marketplace.

24:22

Next week, we'll get an

24:24

update on retail sales after the the

24:27

shopping season. While we wait for

24:29

that, let's check in with one

24:31

of our regulars. Rita Rita McGaldy owns a

24:33

bakery, bakery, Shear Ambrosia, in in Salt Lake

24:35

City. When we When we last spoke,

24:37

she'd moved out of her home

24:39

kitchen into a commercial space and

24:41

hired an employee ahead of the

24:43

busy season. season. It it started off a

24:46

little slow in the beginning of November.

24:48

And so I thought, I gosh, are people gonna come

24:50

back and what am I gonna do? And And

24:53

then I after Thanksgiving, things

24:55

just kind of. things

24:57

just kind of It was just night

24:59

and day working here versus

25:01

working from home home, because A, there was a

25:03

there was a little separation

25:05

between home and where I I

25:07

didn't spend very much time at

25:09

home home. but was always a

25:11

little awkward having strangers show up

25:14

to my house and so

25:16

it was just nice for them

25:18

to walk into this cute

25:20

bakery walk into just kind of set

25:22

the mood for the and it just

25:24

kind of set the mood

25:26

for the a customer. have a

25:29

whose mother started buying from

25:31

me when I first started

25:33

the business in 2008. She

25:35

was a teenager. in 2008. So

25:37

then she got married. she got

25:39

married. Now this year year, when they

25:42

came to pick up the the they

25:44

had their baby with them

25:46

they sent they sent me a

25:48

video feeding him then at the after

25:50

the video the video, she sent

25:52

me a little blur and

25:54

she goes, I guess guess it's

25:56

gonna be three generations of

25:58

customers now. now. It was was

26:01

the cutest thing ever. I just

26:03

I just thought to myself, yeah,

26:05

I am I am part of

26:07

their family traditions and it's

26:09

just so exciting and heartwarming.

26:12

and heartwarming. Things have slowed have slowed

26:14

down do they always do in

26:16

January. try I try not

26:18

to panic. I'm So now I'm

26:20

using this to to strategize

26:22

for the year ahead. ahead. This

26:24

month am am creating a schedule

26:26

can get out that I can

26:28

get out there, meet with

26:30

hotels, meet with business owners. do

26:33

I can do that now

26:35

that I have employees that

26:37

are helping me make the

26:39

me I'm not stuck in

26:41

the kitchen like I've been

26:43

in the past. like

26:45

I am just over

26:47

the moon over the moon about

26:50

the new the new heights

26:52

will reach in 2025. reach

26:54

in 2025. Rita

26:58

McGaldy, owner of Ambrosia

27:00

Salt Lake Lake City,

27:02

Utah. This

27:14

final note on the way out today,

27:16

a moment from the funeral for Jimmy

27:18

Carter, at held at the National Cathedral

27:20

in Washington. Among the many

27:23

tributes, the a former President's

27:25

grandson, Jason Carter had this

27:27

to say about his grandfather's

27:29

legacy, legacy, otherwise. otherwise. By the way,

27:31

he cut the deficit. wanted to

27:33

to decriminalize marijuana, deregulated so

27:35

many industries many that he

27:37

gave us cheap flights and

27:39

as you heard, craft beer. craft

27:41

beer. Basically, all

27:43

of those years ago,

27:45

he was the first

27:47

he was the first millennium. Jimmy Carter

27:49

Carter will be buried

27:51

next to his wife to

27:53

his wife of 77 Carter. In

27:55

his hometown of Plains,

27:57

Georgia. hometown of Plains, John

27:59

Gordy. Noya Carr, Diana Diantha Parker,

28:01

Amanda and Stephanie Seek are

28:03

the marketplace editing and Mir and

28:05

Mir is the is Editor.

28:08

We also had help today from today from

28:10

I'm Amy Scott. Hope to see

28:12

you back here tomorrow. here tomorrow. This

28:36

is is At Capella University,

28:38

At At Capella University, learning the right skills

28:40

could make a difference. That's

28:42

why our business teach you relevant skills

28:44

you can take from the can take

28:46

from the workplace. room to the A different

28:48

future is closer than you think.

28:50

With Capella University, learn more at

28:52

capella .edu. Capella.EDU.