Inflation's self-fulfilling prophecy

Inflation's self-fulfilling prophecy

Released Friday, 25th April 2025
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Inflation's self-fulfilling prophecy

Inflation's self-fulfilling prophecy

Inflation's self-fulfilling prophecy

Inflation's self-fulfilling prophecy

Friday, 25th April 2025
Good episode? Give it some love!
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Episode Transcript

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marketplace. Gamma,

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how good ideas

0:45

get into the

0:48

universe. Hello

0:54

everyone, I am Kimberly Adams. Welcome

0:56

back to Make Me Smart where

0:58

we make today make sense. I'm

1:01

Kyle Rizzo. Thanks for joining us on

1:03

the pod and on the YouTube live

1:05

stream Friday 25 April is where we

1:07

find ourselves. Yes, I love how like just

1:09

done we are at the end of every

1:12

week now. Just completely done. Could

1:14

not be more done. But it

1:16

is Friday, which means that we

1:18

are going to do our weekly

1:20

happy hour. We called Economics on

1:22

Tap. We're going to do some

1:24

news. We're going to play a

1:27

game. But of course, first we are

1:29

going to chat, drinks, or

1:31

the lack thereof. What's your

1:33

guy? I am drinking nothing

1:35

for two reasons. What you got,

1:37

Kai? I am drinking nothing for

1:40

two reasons. Number one, I'm just

1:42

not feeling it today. That's

1:44

all I'm saying. Little TMI perhaps,

1:46

but you know what? I like

1:49

to bear my soul on

1:51

this podcast. It's to make

1:53

us all smart about every

1:55

aspect of your life. When

1:58

Twitter was a thing. and

2:00

it was new, I was still trying to figure

2:02

it out. I did, you know, so, okay, all

2:04

right, okay, so I'll take you behind the scenes.

2:06

So before I go on the air every day,

2:08

I do two things. One is I brush my

2:10

teeth, and the other one is, if I need

2:12

to, I visit the little boys room.

2:14

And I got a little tight

2:17

one day just in terms of

2:19

timing, you know, whatever, and I

2:21

deleted it out. Buttenfly jeans are

2:23

a bad idea on date on

2:25

deadline and Lizzio Leary like roasted

2:28

me on on the site formerly

2:30

noticed Twitter and I was like oh,

2:32

okay, maybe Tiam I just say

2:34

it. Yeah, a little bit, a

2:36

little bit. Anyway, what about you?

2:38

What are you drinking? I am

2:41

having a big drink. I'm

2:43

having tequila with pomegranate juice

2:45

and bidders. Oh my

2:48

goodness, I bet you that's tasty

2:50

except for the tequila part. Also

2:52

that's a big glass. It is, it

2:54

is. I'll let you guess at the ratios

2:56

here. Are you getting up at 3 o'clock

2:58

in the morning? Did you see a

3:00

span tomorrow? I am not. I'm

3:02

getting up early to do other things, but

3:05

not that. Party time. Yes. All right,

3:07

so let's go to the chat

3:09

here. Daniel Romay, Dragon Shear original,

3:11

Berber, Beryl, Seltzer, New Holland Brewing

3:13

Brewing, there you. Rodin Beck, wrong

3:16

crew from Brian Clark. We got

3:18

lots going on. Sorry, go ahead.

3:20

That's okay. Kevin has a well-being

3:22

non-alcoholic IPA. How is that one?

3:25

Because I know Kai's always wondering

3:27

about how the non-alcoholic IPAs are.

3:29

And I haven't heard of well-being, have

3:32

you? No, neither have I. Neither have

3:34

I. They're fine. Like that first beginning

3:36

of the taste of the sip and

3:38

then the finish is just, it's wrong.

3:40

It tastes like what cardboard, which is

3:43

like two or three. Molly

3:45

says that a big week deserves a

3:47

big glass and Molly approves. So, thank

3:49

you. Molly approves. What, what more do

3:51

we need to hear? Oh, Tony

3:53

has a piece goes sourer. Peace

3:55

goes sourer. Yeah, that's my mother-in-law

3:57

drinks. Peace goes sourer. Blue Lotus.

4:01

Mm-hmm. Let's see. I have traditional and

4:03

have the Rui Boy, a Rui Bo,

4:05

I guess. I don't know. Bob is having

4:08

a South African Pinotage. Cool,

4:10

cool, cool. All right, what you got for

4:12

news, Kay? So I've got for news this,

4:14

and it came in the University

4:17

of Michigan Consumer Sentiment this morning,

4:19

and it's a little bit weedy,

4:21

but not really weedy. So consumer

4:23

sentiment is terrible, we know that.

4:25

That doesn't really affect how we

4:27

spend because we can feel cranky

4:30

and still want to spend money,

4:32

so I'm not so worried about

4:34

that. What I am worried about

4:36

is the fact that in the

4:38

inflation expectations question, we all say

4:40

collectively, according to the University

4:43

of Michigan, that we think inflation is

4:45

going to be 6.5% by the end

4:47

of the year. Six and a half

4:49

percent. And that's number one a lot.

4:51

Number two, it's the highest expectations have

4:53

been since 1981. And even if you

4:55

weren't alive in 1981, you surely have

4:57

heard of Paul Volker and breaking the

4:59

back of inflation, when inflation was actually

5:02

more than six and a half percent.

5:04

That was very bad. But also, what

5:06

consumers think is going to happen with

5:08

inflation can actually affect what happens with

5:10

inflation. And so the idea that we

5:12

think it's going to be that high is not

5:14

great. And I'm sure that's keeping Jay Powell up

5:17

at night. I

5:19

wonder how much like somebody in

5:21

a position like that, you know, takes

5:23

ownership or feels that responsibility, you

5:26

know, because obviously he and the folks

5:28

of the Fed have been doing everything

5:30

they can to tamp inflation down, but

5:33

so much of what is causing this

5:35

is completely out of his control, right?

5:37

So, you know, at some point you

5:40

have to be like, you know, got

5:42

to do what I can control and

5:44

go to sleep. Or does it just

5:46

continue to keep you up at night?

5:49

Well, right. So Powell's line that he says

5:51

a lot and he said to me the

5:53

very first time I interviewed him was control

5:55

the controllable. You know, and this

5:58

is not in his control. The same way. by

6:00

the way, this being what the president is

6:02

doing with terrorists, the same way that supply

6:04

chains during the pandemic were not in his

6:06

control, right? Consumers had their own mind. So,

6:08

you know, the feds kind of along for

6:10

the ride and they're about to get stuck

6:12

between a rock and a very hard place.

6:15

And that's going to be bad for all of

6:17

us. It is. What do you got? I got

6:19

two. I feel like the other day we were

6:21

talking and you were like, yeah, we just got

6:23

to rely on the courts to kind of save

6:25

us from everything happening. And I was like, but

6:27

can we rely on the courts? And I was

6:30

a little skeptical. And I just want to say.

6:32

that I saw this story

6:34

in Politico, again by Kyle

6:36

Cheney and Josh Gersten, that

6:38

the Trump administration has reversed

6:41

course on the abrupt termination

6:43

of foreign students' U.S. visa

6:46

registrations, the DOJ announced the

6:48

reversal in federal court after

6:50

weeks of intense scrutiny by

6:53

courts and dozens of restraining

6:55

orders issued by judges. So even

6:57

if these cases didn't make it all

6:59

the way through... going to court

7:02

and fighting these things has made

7:04

a difference and has changed

7:06

policy. So I just want to

7:09

mark that moment that portions

7:11

of our government are

7:13

still functioning as they

7:15

should. Absolutely. That's a good

7:17

thing. Yeah. It's a big deal. And

7:20

then my other one is

7:22

in a completely different direction.

7:24

And I was thinking of

7:26

you because the other day

7:29

I saw this social media

7:31

video about the movie Sinners.

7:33

And it was basically about

7:35

trying to make the argument

7:38

that scaredy cats can go

7:40

see sinners. And that... All the

7:42

people who were like scared to see horror

7:45

movies can go ahead and go see sinners

7:47

And you'll be fine and all these like

7:49

people like us who are scared of horror

7:51

movies were in the in the comments like

7:53

no no We can't believe you the trailer

7:55

looks really scary and blah blah and they're

7:58

like no, it's actually okay. It's not like

8:00

jump scare it's more like an action

8:02

movie than a horror movie and it's

8:04

gonna be fine and so like I'm

8:06

really on the fence about whether I

8:09

should go and see this movie because

8:11

the last horror movie I went to

8:13

see in a movie theater was

8:15

when I was 18 years old

8:17

with two of my girlfriends and

8:19

we got up and left five

8:22

minutes into it because we were

8:24

so scared like I remember sitting

8:26

there and there was like a

8:28

scene in this movie it was

8:30

like some haunted house made of

8:32

glass or something like that and

8:35

a door shut on somebody and

8:37

it sliced them in half and

8:39

I remember leaning over to my

8:41

friends and being like hey do y'all

8:43

want to go and they were like

8:46

yes let's go. last horror movie I

8:48

went to go see in the theater

8:50

and so it's it's it's a pretty

8:53

high threshold I love Ryan Kugler's work

8:55

and everything like that but the reason

8:57

I actually brought this up is because

9:00

of a story that's been really interesting

9:02

to me which is the deal he

9:04

made to make this movie is apparently

9:07

freaking out studio executives in Hollywood because

9:09

the movie is so successful but I'm

9:11

going to read here from the MS

9:14

NBC story. Kugler requested and

9:16

received a rare stake in his

9:18

studio-produced film securing from Warner Brothers'

9:20

first dollar gross points, final cut

9:23

in ownership of the film in

9:25

25 years. An unnamed senior Hollywood

9:27

executive told Vulture that some other

9:30

studios are freaking out over Kugler's

9:32

deal and that it's a very

9:34

dangerous precedent that quote could be

9:37

the end of the studio system.

9:39

Now, like, this is a rare

9:41

deal, it's unusual, obviously Ryan Kuger.

9:43

has power as a director that

9:46

not everybody has, but maybe with,

9:48

you know, directors getting a

9:50

little bit more power in these

9:52

dynamics, we'll get something other than

9:55

endless sequels and spinoffs. So I'm

9:57

here for it. Absolutely. And just

9:59

to... sort of put this in more

10:01

fully into context, it's a movie starring

10:04

a black guy by a black guy,

10:06

right? And Franklin Leonard has been all

10:08

over this, the founder of the blacklist,

10:10

which is not related to the color

10:12

of the star or the movie, that's

10:14

what he called it. He's been all

10:17

over this and how the coverage has

10:19

been really skewed specifically in New York

10:21

Times about, I think the headline in

10:23

Times the other day was, you

10:25

know, Ryan Coogler's movie makes 47

10:27

million dollars first day out. like

10:29

with an asterisk because expectations were

10:31

really half of this film. He's

10:34

doing great. He got the studio

10:36

to give him this deal and it's

10:38

more power to him truly. It's really

10:40

cool to see. And it's doing so

10:42

well. It's doing so well. So I

10:45

should say one of our video producers

10:47

Antoinette Brock says in our chat that

10:49

she can confirm as someone who doesn't

10:51

watch horror films that will be fine.

10:54

I trust Antoinette. Do you not trust

10:56

Antoinette, Kai? Oh, that's not the

10:58

question. The question is happy to scare

11:00

a cat I am. And the answer

11:03

is very large. The last scary movie

11:05

I saw, I was 12, and it

11:07

was Jaws. So, you know. Ah. Yeah.

11:09

I'm curious as to the chat. Has

11:11

anybody in their scene centers? There's a

11:14

lot of scaredy cats in the chat.

11:16

Lots of people trust Antoinette.

11:18

Oh, everyone was telling me

11:21

that this movie that I

11:23

saw that scared me is

11:26

13 ghosts. Yes, that was

11:28

the movie. Fair enough.

11:30

Anyway, we shall. We're

11:32

done. We're going to

11:34

take quick break. Drew's

11:36

going to be back

11:39

with half-empty years. What

11:53

you're laughing already? I'm

11:56

laughing because our attacks joined

11:58

the chat. Oh, all right. Yes,

12:00

all right, let me get back to

12:02

the script. All right, so we are

12:04

going to play our game. We are

12:06

back, we're going to play half full,

12:08

half empty. It is hosted by our

12:10

very own, our very wonderful, Drew Jostad,

12:12

who's probably never scared of anything. Drew,

12:15

take it away. No, I don't watch

12:17

horror movies either. There you go. It's

12:19

a three first. Three makes a trend.

12:21

Come on, here we go. Did you

12:23

guys see Get Out, though? Like, did

12:25

you, like, I can handle like a

12:28

movie like that? Absolutely not. No. Everybody

12:30

said, oh, it's fine. You will be out.

12:32

And I'm like, like, the bleep I will.

12:34

Okay. I am ashamed to say as a

12:36

black person that I didn't see it, but

12:39

I was too worried about. You've

12:41

heard of Airbnb, of course, for

12:43

your houses. Some people use Turo

12:45

to rent out other people's cars.

12:48

A new app called Pickle lets

12:50

you rent out your clothes. Are

12:52

you half full or half empty? Wow.

12:54

So that's, you know, it's a

12:56

little bit rent the runway-ish. I

12:59

guess I'm okay, but there'd have

13:01

to be like laundry services. I

13:03

don't think I would do it,

13:05

but if that's a business, I'm

13:07

half full sure, or whatever. I'm

13:10

going to go half full only

13:12

because I've in the last couple

13:14

of years I've really been buying

13:16

a lot more stuff secondhand off

13:18

like you know the posh mark

13:21

and the real real and all

13:23

that stuff and There are a

13:25

lot of people who buy a

13:27

ton of clothes that they wear

13:29

once or every so often and

13:31

like I I like agela right

13:33

so I have several evening

13:35

gowns that I maybe wear once

13:38

a year once a year And I'd

13:40

be game to rent it out

13:42

if there was like some insurance

13:44

in a service, like if somebody

13:46

wanted it. And that, yeah, that

13:49

makes sense to me. Sure, half full.

13:51

Yeah, half full with some caveats.

13:53

Yeah, half full with some caveats.

13:56

Next up, are you half

13:58

full or half empty on

14:00

smart? glasses that subtitle

14:02

speech in real time.

14:04

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I hadn't

14:06

seen that, but sure. Yeah,

14:08

I can, does it

14:10

translate as well? That's

14:12

what we really need.

14:15

Oh. Oh, that'd be

14:17

interesting. Yeah. That was not

14:19

part of the article as

14:21

far as I saw. Yeah,

14:23

I think that could be really good

14:26

for, you know, especially like with our

14:28

country aging the way it is and

14:30

folks like who maybe don't want to

14:32

wear a hearing aid and just need

14:35

like a little support, but they can

14:37

mostly hear, yeah, half full. Yeah. Yeah,

14:39

and like, I mean, hearing aids,

14:41

you sometimes still can't understand

14:43

what people are saying. Anyway.

14:45

So apparently tick-talk

14:48

is testing out

14:50

a new crowdsourced

14:52

fact-checking system. It's

14:55

called footnotes. Are

14:57

you half-empty on

15:00

community fact-checking?

15:02

Huh. I have to

15:04

say, when community fact-checking

15:07

first rolled out, I was

15:09

very skeptical of

15:11

it. And I still think

15:13

that there are limitations and

15:16

there are problems. But if the

15:18

other option is no fact checking,

15:20

I will definitely take some community

15:22

context. And you know, the whole

15:24

vibe of the show is none

15:26

of us is as smart as

15:28

all of us. So like there

15:30

is some wisdom in the crowd

15:32

at... times. I was looking in

15:35

the discord today and somebody was

15:37

following up on one of the

15:39

questions that we had yesterday about

15:41

what happens to money that Congress

15:43

appropriates but the president doesn't spend

15:45

and someone and I'm sorry I

15:47

forgot exactly who it was went and

15:49

did a bit more research and they're

15:51

like well since we fund most of

15:53

the stuff with a deficit anyway it really

15:56

rather than money going back to the treasury

15:58

or staying in the treasury. It's more

16:00

so that the money just doesn't get

16:02

printed, right? Because if it's

16:04

deficit money anyway, the Treasury would

16:06

have to generate that money to

16:08

spend it on things that we

16:11

couldn't afford anyway. So not spending,

16:13

it just means it's not printed.

16:15

That was the product of their

16:17

research and everything like that. And

16:19

so I think there's value in

16:21

community fact. I see you processing

16:23

that. Does that make sense to

16:25

you? Well, kind of except you're

16:27

assumed that that research assumes we

16:29

have a zero cast balance day

16:31

in and day out, right? And

16:34

that's not true. We've got zillions

16:36

and zillions in the bank to

16:38

float ourselves between bond issuances

16:40

So Yes, kind of true, but also

16:42

kind of not you know what I mean? Yeah,

16:45

not the expert here, but anyway, the

16:47

whole point being that Community

16:49

can at least provide context and

16:51

warn you when something is really

16:54

off. And right, it shouldn't

16:56

be called. Michael and Houston who

16:58

did that in the discord. Thank

17:01

you. Okay, good. Yeah, your

17:03

point about fact-checking versus

17:05

context adding is important

17:07

because it should be

17:09

context and non-fact, right? Yeah. Yeah.

17:11

There you go. How you have full or

17:13

half empty? Oh, I'm full

17:16

with your own annotation

17:18

that it's context and not

17:20

fact-checking. Yeah. Yeah.

17:23

Okay. What's next? All right. Let's

17:25

wrap it up with the

17:27

audience poll. All right. The question

17:29

is, are you a half full or

17:31

half empty on the slate EV pickup?

17:34

And I can give more details on

17:36

this car. I literally just saw it

17:38

today. It's a, it's a, it's a,

17:40

a pickup truck, right for... less than

17:43

$25,000. My oldest son was just texting

17:45

me about it this morning, saying he

17:47

really likes the price and the modularity

17:49

of it. I haven't even dug into

17:52

it at all. So if you give

17:54

us the elevator pitch here, would you do

17:56

it? Yeah, the idea is that it's customizable,

17:58

it comes pretty bare bones. There's no

18:00

paint, it's just like it's only

18:02

available in the one color that

18:05

they make the panels in. There's no

18:07

sound, there's no stereo, there's no

18:09

touch screen. You have to just

18:11

like bring your own Bluetooth speaker

18:13

if you wanna listen to music

18:15

in the car. Wow. But yeah, the

18:18

idea is that actually under

18:20

20,000 if federal incentives stay

18:22

the same deliveries reportedly starting

18:24

in late 2026. Wow, it'd be

18:27

cool if they could make it. I

18:29

don't get the no screen part because

18:31

you gotta have like something to I

18:33

don't know is there like do you

18:35

know, or heating or heating or anything?

18:37

You can have air conditioning and

18:39

heat without a screen. How do you know

18:41

how fast you're going? How do you

18:43

know how fast you're going? An

18:45

odometer. Which comes on a? In a

18:47

circle with a little bar with a little

18:50

bar with a little thing on it. You

18:52

can get a little bar with a

18:54

little thing on it. battery charge. How

18:56

do you know battery charge?

18:59

Okay, that's fair. You

19:01

need even like a

19:03

minimal screen. If it's

19:05

electric, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe

19:07

it's just like a light

19:10

that mourns you. It's like

19:12

red, red, green, red, red,

19:14

yellow and green just like

19:17

a light. Like a light.

19:19

Like red, red, yellow and

19:21

green. Just like a light. Like

19:23

a light. Yeah. Okay,

19:25

how do I feel about this?

19:28

Actually, I'm looking at the picture.

19:30

I like it. I like it. What do

19:32

you think? Yeah, no, I like it

19:34

too. I'm half full. I'm along

19:37

with the majority of the poll

19:39

for sure. Yeah, I'm actually going

19:41

to vote in the poll this

19:43

time. Oh, wow, 89% are half

19:45

full. Which would be great. I

19:48

would take a... a stripped-down EV

19:50

truck. I mean, you know that

19:52

this appeals to my like surviving

19:54

the zombie apocalypse tendencies. Yes, yes. Sorry,

19:56

that's well. If you can hear a dog

19:58

grumbling here. You know what, we

20:01

needed some willow action for a while.

20:03

We've had too much our attacks and

20:05

not enough willow. Yeah, here we go. Well,

20:07

here she is. Yeah, so we're half full.

20:09

The poll, we're going to call the poll

20:11

closed. 171 people are in. Half full is

20:14

89. Half empty, 11. I don't know what

20:16

the other one. Oh, that actually ends

20:18

up to going? Just not. How about

20:20

that? Yeah. How about that? All right, well

20:22

that. Well that. So is the game. And

20:24

so is the week. So is the week.

20:27

We are going to be back on Monday.

20:29

If you'd like to send us a question

20:31

or comment, you can leave us voicemail, 508,

20:33

you be smart. You can also email us

20:35

at Make Me Smart at marketplace.org. I just

20:38

realized the cat is like sleeping right there.

20:40

Just laid out. Cats are the little in

20:42

the shot. Make Me Smart. It's pretty sort

20:44

of like Courtney, Courtney, Berg, our

20:46

intern is Al Mallick. Today's episode

20:49

was engineered by Charl from Charl

20:51

from Charlton and Thor. Charlton and

20:53

Thor. The team behind our Friday

20:55

Game is Emily McEwn, Jamila

20:58

Huxtable, and Antoinette Brock, Marissa

21:00

Cabrera is our senior producer.

21:03

Bridget Bodner is the director

21:05

of podcast, and Francesca Levy

21:07

is the executive director of

21:09

digital and on demand. There

21:11

we go. Happy Friday, everybody.

21:14

If there's one thing we know

21:16

about social media, it's that misinformation

21:18

is everywhere. Especially when it comes

21:20

to personal finance. Financially inclined from

21:23

marketplace is a podcast you can

21:25

trust to help you get serious

21:27

about your money so you can

21:30

build a life you've always dreamed

21:32

of. I'm the host Janelius Pinal

21:34

and each week I ask experts

21:37

important money questions like how to

21:39

negotiate job offers, how to choose

21:41

a college that you can afford,

21:44

and how to talk about money

21:46

with friends and family. Listen

21:48

to financially inclined wherever you

21:51

get your podcasts.

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