0:00

What isn't priced I think

0:02

is sort of the follow

0:04

true that we might see

0:06

from President Trump. Now he's

0:08

promised to commute sentences on

0:10

day one for Silk Road,

0:13

Ross Loebrickt, so if we

0:15

see that happen and we

0:17

see that follow true, maybe

0:19

that could again cause another

0:21

sort of push. In Chinese, belief

0:23

also means trust. We want to

0:25

trust our systems and each other,

0:27

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0:34

Happy New Year, everyone. It is January

0:36

2nd and this is Market's Daily hosted

0:39

by me, Jen Sinase. On this show,

0:41

we navigate the currents shaping the crypto

0:43

markets, providing insights against the broader financial

0:46

landscape. So whether you are actively trading

0:48

or simply fascinated by the volatility of

0:50

the crypto markets, this show is your

0:53

compass to understanding what's happened, where we

0:55

are and where we're going. Join today's

0:57

show is Kiko, research analyst Adam, welcome

1:00

to the show. Adam, welcome to the

1:02

show. Thanks. Jan, Jan, and happy New Year. Of

1:04

course, happy year to you, happy 2025. I

1:06

got to just ask you, how are your

1:08

holidays? Yeah, they're good. I was back in Ireland

1:10

visiting, so if you couldn't tell from the

1:13

accent, that's where I'm from. But I had

1:15

a nice two weeks there and now back

1:17

in the office in Paris and they're ready

1:19

to get back into it. Amazing back

1:22

at it. Well, it looks like the markets

1:24

are ready to get back into it too.

1:26

We were talking before the show both Bitcoin

1:28

and Eith are up about 3% Eith is

1:30

up over 3% Bitcoin up over 2% at

1:32

time of recording. Talk to me about what

1:34

you expect to see as we get deeper into

1:36

2025. The holidays, while we had that

1:39

rally just before we all went on break,

1:41

it kind of fell flat a little

1:43

bit disappointing when you looked at the

1:45

markets, but it looks like we're picking

1:47

back up. Yeah, I think we wrote about one

1:49

of the last things we did before we

1:51

checked out for the old days was talking

1:53

about the possibility of a Santa Riley and

1:56

I think mid-December people were

1:58

positioning for 120K Bitcoin. by the

2:00

27th. And yeah we kind of we we we

2:02

tempered expectations there a bit we thought you know

2:04

there's better less than 10% chance of that happening

2:07

and it kind of played out that way the

2:09

things kind of pulled back a little bit market

2:11

took a breather and I don't think that's

2:13

surprising I mean this time last year when

2:15

we were coming up to that Bitcoin ETF

2:17

approval date we saw a massive sell-off in

2:19

the market when there was some kind of

2:21

mixed reports about the treasure of the ETF

2:23

and you know that has similarly followed a

2:26

massive run-up into the end of the end

2:28

of December so I think it's a time of

2:30

year for where there tends to be

2:32

some sort of kind of you know

2:34

consolidation in the market and I wouldn't

2:36

be surprised to see a little bit

2:38

more of that throughout January especially

2:40

with the sort of like you know December

2:42

ended I think you know from the

2:44

first that there had the Bitcoin ended

2:46

up kind of down overall after that

2:48

massive push-up over 100K on the fifth and

2:51

then again up around 100 a week or

2:53

so later so I wouldn't be too shocked

2:55

if that consolidation or kind of you

2:57

know. rangebound for the next few weeks

2:59

as we approach sort of the end

3:02

of the month but there's some catalysts

3:04

coming up I think then again regulatory

3:06

wise and just you know in general talk

3:09

to me a little bit more about

3:11

what you expect to see in January

3:13

of course you mentioned catalysts we have

3:15

the inauguration coming up here in the

3:18

United States on January 20th there's I've

3:20

seen a mixed bag of what analysts

3:22

are expecting to happen this this month

3:24

tell me a little bit more about

3:27

what you expect to see uh Bitcoin do

3:29

in January I think I think a lot

3:31

of it's probably priced in I think

3:33

you know with the announcement of Paul

3:35

Aikens last month that kind of coincided

3:37

with Bitcoin pushing up over 100K but

3:40

what isn't priced I think is sort

3:42

of the follow true that we might see

3:44

from President Trump you know he's promised to

3:46

commute the sentence of commute sentences on day

3:48

one for Silk Road Ross Loebrickt so if

3:51

we see that happen and we see that

3:53

follow true maybe that could again cause another

3:55

sort of push I think there's certain things

3:58

that he might do in the first week

4:00

after inauguration that we could say reinforces the

4:02

narrative a bit and that might not be

4:04

reprised in right now. Maybe it is and

4:06

maybe it doesn't do those things that it

4:09

goes the other way but that would be

4:11

certainly something I'll be watching for that

4:13

follow-through the commitment that he made to

4:15

the industry back in August when he

4:18

appeared at the Bitcoin conference. Things

4:20

like that you know I don't know if

4:22

we're going to see anything on crypto in

4:24

the first week of the new admissions sitting

4:26

but... it will be interesting if we do

4:28

get anything there and you know those

4:30

things I'll be watching kind of regulatory

4:32

wise like the repeal of SAP 121

4:34

the accounting standard for custodians looking to

4:37

custody Bitcoin and eaten other crypto assets

4:39

in the US that would be very

4:41

big as well I think if that

4:43

comes early this month or that would probably

4:45

be something that comes maybe February

4:48

March later on but once that

4:50

does happen it kind of increases

4:52

competition I think B&Mella might be one

4:54

of the only major custodians in the

4:56

US that's able to get involved with

4:58

crypto at the moment. So if that is

5:01

repealed, then you might see more firms that

5:03

are comfortable to do it. I know NASDAQ had

5:05

their own ETF, their own custody project,

5:07

kind of put on hold two years ago or

5:09

so. So we might see things like that

5:11

come back in and we know that when

5:13

those big names and firms like that start

5:15

getting involved in the market, it kind of

5:17

sheds more light and it brings more attention

5:19

to this space, which is always a good

5:21

thing. Of course, I want to talk

5:24

a little bit more about the trends

5:26

that you expect to see in 2025,

5:28

but I want to come back to

5:30

what we were just talking about. You

5:33

mentioned that $120,000 price target in December,

5:35

as folks were, expecting a Santa rally.

5:37

When do you think Bitcoin hits 120K,

5:39

since we didn't get it in December?

5:41

I don't know. I'm not one for the

5:43

predictions that I have a magic eight ball,

5:46

but I think, you know, if we're looking

5:48

at sort of had things paid out last

5:50

year, I would say you know where liquidity is

5:52

right now last year we saw that kind of

5:54

what we like to call the Alameda gap,

5:56

the kind of gap left in the liquidity

5:58

from the collapse of the... FTX and it's

6:00

sister company Alameda Research. That's closed out

6:03

now fully in 2024 and that means

6:05

there's a good solid strong base in

6:07

the market you know and I think when you

6:09

see prices going up and volumes going up that

6:11

means you know there's a broad base of this

6:13

move and it's kind of supported if price were

6:15

going up and volumes were staying down I'd be

6:18

worried but we've seen those volumes build a bit.

6:20

If we are to get close to 120 20K

6:22

price I think volumes need to pick up a

6:24

little bit more and on a consistent

6:27

consistent basis. If we're the mirror kind

6:29

of things that happened last year, I'll see

6:31

history doesn't repeat, but it sort of rounds.

6:33

We could see volumes grow and then maybe

6:36

that price come in later on H1H2 this

6:38

year. I'm not going to put a date

6:40

on it, but I think if volumes

6:42

pick up and you know, momentum builds

6:45

the way it has been, certainly we could,

6:47

it's not out of the rounds of

6:49

possibility. I think another thing that like

6:51

plays into that is, you know, you know,

6:53

the more products that we have on on

6:55

these. on these assets. So you know, I'd like

6:57

to see a sort of dual asset ETF for

6:59

Bitcoin Eat. It'd be interesting. More

7:02

things there, obviously the big play in

7:04

2024 was the Bitcoin ETF and the

7:06

basis trade at the CME. So if

7:08

we can kind of broaden that a

7:10

bit more and see like, you know,

7:12

the other we have options on library

7:14

ETFs, we have ordered trades there, all

7:16

of those things together can kind of,

7:19

you know, increase the overall liquidity and

7:21

the overall volume and can only benefit

7:23

the price then in the longer.

7:27

You know, folks who are waking up this

7:29

morning are thinking about, you know, what

7:31

are the narratives I should be watching

7:33

for 2025? What kinds of projects should

7:35

I be watching? We mentioned a few

7:37

big changes coming for the industry. Of

7:39

course, the new administration taking over here

7:41

in the United States, more crypto friendly.

7:44

We're going to have an SEC change.

7:46

What narratives, what projects do you

7:48

think are going to take off on the

7:50

back of catalysts like these? I think the

7:52

one big thing I've touched on already

7:54

is the custody. They were going to

7:56

see more custodians and more competition. You

7:58

know, Coinbase had 100% of the custody

8:00

market this time last year. I think

8:03

it adds just below 80% maybe with

8:05

fidelity, bit go, I encourage others coming

8:07

in there and obviously, you know. That

8:09

competition is healthy. I think Gemini works with

8:12

Vannek on theirs as well. So there's a

8:14

good like healthy ecosystem developing there. I wouldn't

8:16

be surprised to see that, you know, coin-based

8:18

share may fall a little bit lower again

8:20

this year. Obviously they're growing, they're overall like,

8:22

you know, whole, assets on our custody, but

8:24

their share of the whole market has come

8:26

down a bit as that competition grows, which

8:28

is healthy, which is good. I think that's

8:30

something that's going to continue to continue to

8:32

play out to play out this year this

8:34

year, especially as we get to very great.

8:36

Some clear regulation around stable coins as well

8:39

as like would be great as we've already

8:41

seen in Europe with Mika The regulation

8:43

has benefit euro-dominated stable coins and if we

8:45

can get some sort of similar regulation in

8:48

the US I mean it might just grow

8:50

that leave for U.S.D. stable coins even further

8:52

I don't think mica I don't think mica

8:54

can do enough to peg back that massively

8:56

that euro-dominated stable coins have it

8:58

doesn't mirrors effects markets and other

9:00

markets for something natural, but I

9:03

think it has helped to sort

9:05

of solidify a base for euro-dominated

9:07

stable coins which is healthy So similar

9:09

regulation on stable coins, the US, would

9:11

be great, which, you know, as we've

9:13

seen, stable coins are sort of trading

9:16

vehicles. And when there's higher velocity of

9:18

movement through stable coins, prices tend to

9:20

be going up. When the whole market

9:22

cap of stable coins, price is going

9:25

up, price is going up, price is

9:27

going up, price will be going up.

9:29

So stable coin regulation would be

9:32

a great thing, as well

9:34

as clarity, and regulation around,

9:36

you know, decentralized exchanges. what we

9:38

have and we discussed this on a webinar we

9:40

had in December is that there's optimism in the

9:42

US now which is a great thing before there

9:44

was an optimism there was always this

9:47

hurdle of the regulatory kind of barrier but

9:49

with that sort of out of the way now maybe we

9:51

can get back to doing interesting things and

9:53

innovations and yeah moving beyond it because

9:55

I think it's not just regulation that's

9:57

gonna help the industry and gonna grow.

10:00

I'm going to increase asset prices at

10:02

the end of the day. It's going

10:04

to be a more interesting innovation in

10:07

bolder developments. So we can't just rely

10:09

on having mixed basket ETFs or having

10:11

options on these funds. It has to

10:13

be actually exciting things that get

10:15

people interested in using crypto

10:18

assets and getting involved in the space

10:20

that will also help. So I'd like to

10:22

see some more stuff there. I really like

10:24

what Athena is doing with its USDA. The

10:26

USDT stable coin that's investing in

10:29

build gives a little bit more

10:31

security as well. Slivian and its

10:33

platform is great. So some more

10:35

stuff like that. That's interesting. I mean

10:37

we saw the hyper liquid airdrop in

10:40

November which was super beneficial

10:42

for holders and users. If we can

10:44

get more things like that that kind

10:46

of keep people coming back then it'll be

10:48

a good year. All right, the last

10:50

thing I want to touch on are

10:53

alt coins and meme coins. Mem coins

10:55

really drove the narrative at the end

10:57

of last year. I know various different

11:00

firms are predicting that they will continue

11:02

to drive that narrative in 2025, especially

11:04

on the back of AI implementations and

11:06

AI agents being able to spin up

11:09

these coins and trade. Talk to me

11:11

about how you're looking at meme coins

11:13

and how you're looking at alt coins

11:15

and how they might play into the

11:18

narrative as we move forward. you know

11:20

meeko into how to how to ignore

11:22

i don't think they're going to go

11:24

anywhere there they've been around a long

11:26

time was interesting this year was last

11:28

year was that more the more of the kind

11:30

of moves came from Solana blockchain so

11:33

we had the kind of initial bonk

11:35

rally in December 2023 that played into

11:37

our first half of 2024 as well

11:39

in March I think with massive rally

11:41

you're getting all these tokens that are

11:44

being spun up pretty quickly that

11:46

led to the launch it's the launch it

11:48

pumped off fun which was a massive hit,

11:50

I think it didn't be $400 million in

11:52

revenue last year, after only being live for

11:54

about seven or eight months of the year.

11:56

So those will continue to be a thing,

11:58

but I think while AI. agents are interesting

12:01

and while that kind of intersects between I

12:03

and crypto is like very tempting to get

12:05

kind of drawn into and go down the

12:07

rabbit hole of that whole thing I think

12:09

in the end of the day these meme

12:11

coins that do stick around have a narrative

12:13

and they have a community I mean the

12:16

peanut the squirrel mean coin which I got

12:18

drawn to at the end of October before

12:20

the election that out of narrative I guess

12:22

it was political and it was also you

12:24

know this this this iconic squirrel that had

12:26

a massive following on social media already. Other

12:28

meme coin, other memes that spin up

12:30

quickly and kind of tend to run

12:33

out of flames quite fast as well.

12:35

I think you need, it's all well

12:37

and good. How quickly you can create

12:39

these things, but there needs to be

12:41

a solid narrative and a kind of

12:43

community there almost cult like followings. So

12:46

without that, it doesn't really stick in

12:48

my mind anyway. But beyond meme coins

12:50

and onto alt coins, I think there's

12:52

been a lot of talk. The last two

12:54

years, maybe, the when's the old coin rally

12:56

going to be? Bitcoin, obviously, June 23, the

12:59

Black Rock filing started picking up momentum.

13:01

X or P had a spike that summer

13:03

after its SEC case. We saw a similar

13:05

spike the end of this year of the

13:07

election. So I think that might be not

13:09

a regulatory-based thing where there's going to be

13:11

clarity around some of these coins that were

13:14

kind of dubbed crypto asset securities

13:16

by the previous administration. That might be

13:18

priced in now, you know, when Paul Aikens takes takes

13:20

over and when the new commission is in. We might

13:22

get more clarity and there might be some other moves

13:25

higher, but I don't know if it's necessarily going

13:27

to follow the trajectory of previous cycles where money

13:29

starts flowing further out the risk curve into these

13:31

smaller assets with less liquidity. I think we're looking

13:33

at a kind of different type of market here

13:36

where there's a lot of institutional interest in demand

13:38

and they're going to drive the narrative a little bit

13:40

more and I don't know how comfortable a lot

13:42

of these institutions are getting are getting involved in.

13:44

You know these all coins that are just

13:46

a little bit too far out there with

13:48

a little less trading volume less liquidity You

13:51

know how to get out of those positions

13:53

in size, so they might not get into them

13:55

if we get ETFs for like coin XRP H

13:58

bar, you know, there's a mixed pass I think

14:00

ETF from gray scale looking to convert.

14:02

I think it's got Avax and if

14:04

you're unsolid, maybe those things could see

14:06

a boost, but there also could be a

14:09

negative impact if they don't get trading volumes.

14:11

So I'm not as bullish on, you know,

14:13

this, that things necessarily have to flow

14:15

into all coins like they have in

14:17

previous cycles. I think meme coins definitely

14:20

going to stick around once it's a solid

14:22

narrative. All right, Adam, and before we wrap

14:24

up, I want to hear your hottest take.

14:26

What should people who are watching the crypto

14:28

markets be aware of? What should they be

14:30

watching? What's the one thing they should be

14:32

focusing on as we head deeper into 2025?

14:34

The one thing for me is maybe focusing

14:36

a little bit more on use cases and

14:39

a little less on regulatory issues. We had

14:41

a we had a good focal point for all of

14:43

our disappointment over the last few

14:45

years and Gary Genser and he's going to

14:47

be leaving at the end of the month.

14:49

and I kind of be wary of how

14:51

we treat that now because a lot of

14:54

time in crypto we kind of build a

14:56

lot of people up into being heroes or

14:58

being villains so that we can focus our

15:00

energy in a sort of zero-sum way. I

15:02

think we need to move beyond that in

15:05

2025 and look a little bit more at

15:07

what we can do to entice people to

15:09

use the products and use the use

15:11

tokens and get involved in a

15:13

healthy way. It's been such a

15:15

pleasure having this conversation with you. Thanks

15:17

for having me. And thank you to

15:20

everyone who watched Markets Daily today, who

15:22

listened to Markets Daily. If you enjoy

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