0:00

I I just finished a a more

0:02

than one month trip to America. to

0:04

America, always interesting

0:06

to be back to make

0:08

observations. make observations. I grew up

0:10

in the Washington, DC area. DC

0:13

area, 15 miles from Washington,

0:15

D .C. DC.

0:17

visited that area again. that area

0:19

And I gotta tell I gotta absolutely

0:22

amazing. absolutely unfettered.

0:24

unfettered government

0:27

spending, welfare. can

0:29

do to an area. If a if

0:32

a government has an

0:34

unlimited checkbook. checkbook and spins

0:36

and spins. spends and spends,

0:39

live in that area. in that will

0:41

think they are rich. they are rich.

0:44

And and perhaps they end up having

0:46

a lot more money. a lot more they

0:48

otherwise would have had. would

0:50

have That's a fact. a fact.

0:53

But But it's disgusting. Because

0:55

at the at the end of the

0:57

day, all of us are driven. whether

0:59

we we admit it or not.

1:01

in the in the one life that we

1:03

have so far. We are we

1:05

are driven to create. We are we

1:08

are driven to make. are not we

1:10

are not only driven to take. a

1:12

life of if you live a life

1:14

of only taking. Man, I sound

1:16

really heated already to start the new year. What

1:18

the hell? I am heated. I am but

1:21

if you are driven to only take. driven

1:23

to only take. are you? are you?

1:26

You're not the type of person that wants to listen

1:28

to me. wants to listen

1:30

look up to the up to the

1:32

achievers. mentors have all been

1:34

achievers. been achievers. Novel

1:37

approaches to the markets, novel

1:39

approaches to business. to business.

1:42

Work hard, often

1:44

Inspired. inspired. something

1:46

great make something great happen.

1:49

no guarantee you Now there's

1:51

no guarantee you will be the next Elon

1:53

Musk, obviously. but

1:55

you still strive. strive. You

1:57

push. push. When

2:00

you go back to

2:02

the Washington DC area,

2:04

you can feel it.

2:06

Millions of people on

2:08

the dull, whether those

2:10

people consider themselves rich

2:12

or poor, they are

2:14

all on the dull.

2:16

They are all taking.

2:18

They are all pretending.

2:20

It makes me sick.

2:22

Now I don't let

2:24

it stay with me

2:26

too long. I can't

2:28

control it. This is.

2:30

what America is. And

2:32

sure, there's other countries

2:34

that have crazy government

2:36

spending and people bleed

2:38

the system dry. America's

2:41

not the only place.

2:43

But I am American,

2:45

and I observe this.

2:47

I wish I saw

2:49

something respectful, honest, that

2:51

you can look up

2:53

to, but I don't

2:55

see that. Sure,

2:57

you can listen to me and

2:59

you can put your horse blinders

3:01

on and you can pretend things

3:04

I'm saying are not true and

3:06

you can try to find some

3:08

bullshit excuse to make yourself feel

3:10

good because you just don't want

3:13

to look at the truth. I

3:15

get it. It's not dissimilar to

3:17

the markets. It's not dissimilar to

3:19

trend following. Because I do want

3:22

to pivot away from talking about

3:24

disgusting government overreach. But

3:26

it doesn't make a difference

3:28

what aspect of life you

3:30

go into. There are scammers

3:33

everywhere. There are people who

3:35

want to take your money

3:37

and give you nothing. Oh,

3:39

maybe they'll give you hope.

3:41

Maybe they'll give you a

3:43

dream, a fantasy, something that

3:45

you can hold on to.

3:47

I'll never understand why people

3:49

fall for this stuff, but

3:51

I can see it in

3:53

my world quite clearly. For

3:56

those of you that don't

3:58

know about my world, it's

4:01

the trend following It's a

4:03

particular style of trading. A

4:05

style of trading that doesn't

4:08

use the fundamentals, doesn't make

4:10

predictions, doesn't know what's going

4:13

to happen tomorrow. And I

4:15

think this best represents a

4:17

post that I put on

4:20

X, late December 2024. My

4:22

post was quite simple, but

4:24

it's not so simple if

4:27

you ponder if you ponder

4:29

it. It says,

4:31

unknown, unpredictable, unstable, unclear,

4:34

uncertain, unfamiliar, unforeseen, unreliable,

4:36

unsettled, uncharted, unverified. My

4:38

last line? Just the

4:41

expression, trend following. What

4:43

do I mean? All

4:45

of those terms are

4:48

the truth. That's where

4:50

we are. That's life.

4:52

That's normal. Regardless of

4:55

how many people whisper,

4:57

sweet nothings into your

4:59

ear on a daily

5:02

basis, 24 and 7,

5:04

to tell you they've

5:06

got it figured out,

5:09

and they can help

5:11

you. They can't. That's

5:13

what's so beautiful about

5:16

the strategy of trend

5:18

following. It handles all

5:20

of those uns, those

5:23

uncertainties, those uncertainties uncertainties.

5:25

The uncharted, the unsettled.

5:27

Trent following navigates it.

5:30

Trent following is the

5:32

colonial explorer on a

5:34

wooden boat in the

5:36

middle of the Pacific

5:39

Ocean. Not sure what's

5:41

going to happen. Unsure

5:43

if you will survive.

5:46

In many ways that

5:48

is trend following. Now

5:50

with a mathematical approach

5:53

like trend following. You

5:56

actually do worry about survival more than

5:58

you worry about making money. The

6:01

act of surviving is what

6:03

it's all about. So unlike

6:06

those great explorers that got

6:08

on a wooden boat and

6:10

sailed into the Pacific, many

6:13

of whom never returned, Trent

6:15

following is different. Trent following

6:17

prepares you to return, so

6:20

to speak. It prepares you

6:22

to survive, and it puts

6:24

you in a position when

6:27

the unexpected happens, the unexpected

6:29

good You're on the right

6:31

side of the unexpected good.

6:34

Does that mean you have

6:36

had a good strategy to

6:38

trade Bitcoin? Of course. The

6:41

best strategy to trade something

6:43

like Bitcoin. Also, the best

6:45

strategy to trade something like

6:48

gold or cocoa. Or damn

6:50

it, any market. Because what

6:52

trend following does so cleverly,

6:55

it reduces all markets to

6:57

a number. And

6:59

that's the only data you analyze.

7:01

So if you come to me

7:04

and you say, Mike, I want

7:06

to learn something from you, I'm

7:08

going to teach you trend following.

7:11

I'm not going to give you

7:13

my opinion for that day. I'm

7:15

not going to say something inane

7:18

like, Elon Musk said this today,

7:20

so therefore why did the market

7:23

not move the direction of what

7:25

he said? Look, Elon is a

7:27

fantastic entrepreneur. But you

7:30

can't look at the individual

7:32

words of one person on

7:34

any given day and make

7:36

investing decisions or trading decisions

7:38

and call yourself an investor

7:40

or a trader. Because if

7:42

you are looking at the

7:44

words of any one person,

7:46

their prediction, their insights for

7:48

that particular day, and you

7:50

think that's investing, you think

7:52

that's trading, come on, you're

7:54

fooling yourself, you're fucking fooling

7:57

yourself. That's gambling. You're

7:59

the old Blue hair at

8:02

the North Vegas ancient hotel

8:04

playing slots. You're not a

8:06

serious person. Michael Saylor, the

8:09

Bitcoin guru. He's made a

8:11

bloody fortune. Up and down,

8:14

up and down. I don't

8:16

understand exactly what he is

8:18

doing. I don't understand what

8:21

his plan is. But do

8:23

I have to understand his

8:26

plan? Or can I just

8:28

trade? Bitcoin is a trend

8:30

following trader? Can I just

8:33

trade his company micro strategy

8:35

as a trend following trader?

8:38

Yes. So instead of trying

8:40

to tell yourself, I believe

8:43

Michael Saylor, or I don't

8:45

believe Michael Saylor, why not

8:47

just follow the price? Now

8:50

look, I'm not oblivious to

8:52

the fact that if you

8:55

make an early bet... And

8:58

you go all in, and

9:00

it turns out your way,

9:03

you can make a bloody

9:05

fortune. But is that investing

9:07

or trading, or is that

9:10

the lottery? What do you

9:12

want? You only live one

9:15

time. Right now, on this

9:17

planet, there is one Michael

9:20

Sailor. That's it. Two guys.

9:22

Making stuff happen. Now Elon,

9:25

he clearly has a more

9:27

stable approach. Car business, space

9:29

business, telecom business. Michael Saylor

9:32

is all in on Bitcoin.

9:34

And he could end up

9:37

being 100% wrong. We have

9:39

no idea. But we can

9:42

only judge both of these

9:44

men and their businesses via

9:47

the price of the markets.

9:49

They represent each day. We

9:51

can trade. that price. So

9:54

if you can't be sure

9:56

of the fundamentals of these

9:59

men or any other company

10:01

or any other market, trend

10:04

following gives you a way

10:06

to not have to trust

10:08

the fundamentals, trend following gives

10:11

you a way to believe

10:13

in the right now. What

10:16

is happening right now? What

10:18

can you do right now?

10:21

And with a stop. aspect

10:23

of this, to not being

10:26

a colonial explorer in the

10:28

middle of the Pacific, with

10:30

no way to phone home.

10:33

Trend following gives you a

10:35

way to phone home. Phone

10:38

home, meaning, take a loss,

10:40

have a stop, protect yourself.

10:43

Be around to play another

10:45

day. If you can't play

10:47

another day, you're out. You're

10:50

on the sideline. You're on

10:52

the sideline. You're taking fentanyl.

10:55

You're taking fentanyl. You're a

10:57

meth head head. You're up

11:00

on that crazy street in

11:02

Philadelphia where you're bent over

11:05

backwards and shit's drooling out

11:07

of your ears. No fun.

11:09

But look, this is the

11:12

world we live in right

11:14

now. A world of non-stop

11:17

information. Non-stop voices. I mean,

11:19

in your ear, you've got

11:22

your local brokers. You've got

11:24

your hedge funds. And you

11:26

have people like me. My

11:30

goal is to share information.

11:32

My goal is to share

11:34

insights on a particular style

11:37

and a particular lifestyle. Take

11:39

it or leave it. Now

11:41

the cool thing with my

11:43

take it or leave it

11:45

approach is you can verify

11:47

it. Now if you call

11:50

up your local broker and

11:52

you want to know his

11:54

given opinion on the video

11:56

for any given day, he

11:58

will tell you. He

12:01

will have an opinion that

12:03

much I guarantee you. What

12:05

is his opinion for that

12:08

given day rooted in? Absolutely

12:10

nothing. Will he tell you

12:12

that? Of course not. I

12:14

hate that kind of style.

12:17

I would never want to

12:19

be in that world. It's

12:21

especially strange for me when

12:23

I see people that I

12:26

care about in the middle

12:28

of that world. Meaning

12:30

they take advice, they get insights

12:33

from people who they think have

12:35

an expertise to guide them with

12:37

their money. Now how the hell

12:39

can anyone have an expertise when

12:41

no one knows what the hell

12:44

is going to happen tomorrow? So

12:46

the expertise is back to trend

12:48

following. The expertise is to have

12:50

a strategy that puts you in

12:52

a position that when markets move

12:55

and they move in a big

12:57

way... You can be on board

12:59

to ride those markets. And when

13:01

markets crap out and go the

13:04

opposite way that you want, you're

13:06

protected. And you lose a limited

13:08

amount of money so you can

13:10

come back to play another day.

13:12

I mean, if you lose two,

13:15

five, ten percent, whatever of your

13:17

money, and that's it, you've still

13:19

got ninety percent. You can still

13:21

play. You can still make up

13:24

your losses, so to speak. Now

13:27

that's not the goal, that's

13:29

not how you approach it

13:31

with trend following, but in

13:34

actuality that's what does happen.

13:36

You take the small losses

13:39

and you wait for the

13:41

unexpected big moves to pay

13:43

for the losses and to

13:46

give you your profit. Now

13:48

I know what I say

13:51

to the uninitiated probably sounds

13:53

damn good. It

13:55

probably sounds, man, I

13:57

needed that reminder or...

13:59

Wow, I've never heard

14:01

about that, that being

14:03

trend following. Here's where

14:05

it gets interesting for

14:07

me, and I am

14:09

a broken record when

14:11

it comes to this,

14:13

which is the proof,

14:16

trust, but verify. So

14:18

do you want to

14:20

know if a particular

14:22

trading strategy works? Where's

14:24

the proof? Who has

14:26

been doing it? Long

14:28

before I appeared, long

14:30

before the mentors that

14:32

I have had. appeared.

14:34

Where's the proof? Trend

14:36

following is a trading

14:38

strategy has unlimited proof.

14:40

Traders, over the decades,

14:42

not affiliated with each

14:44

other, making money in

14:46

the same markets with

14:48

similar returns. The deviation

14:50

in the returns often

14:52

related to the leverage

14:54

they choose. But bottom

14:56

line, there is proof.

14:59

And if you don't know, meaning

15:01

you don't have a strategy, proof

15:04

is the first place you

15:06

start. Once you see the proof

15:08

from the people that came before

15:10

you, and this is what I

15:13

do in my life as I

15:15

share this proof, once you

15:17

see the proof, you know that

15:20

everything else is a scam. Why

15:22

is everything else a scam? Because

15:24

unless we're looking at... the Warren

15:27

Buffets of the world, the

15:29

Elons of the world, where you

15:31

can see their track records, you

15:34

can see their stock prices, the

15:36

other people out there saying, I

15:38

have this strategy, or I have

15:41

that strategy. That could be fundamental

15:43

analysis, it could be some form

15:46

of technical analysis, some form of

15:48

chart reading. The moment you ask

15:50

for, where is the proof for

15:53

your strategy that came long before

15:55

you? Like where are the other

15:58

practitioners? that do what you say

16:00

is so great. It's not even

16:02

about the person that claims

16:05

to have the strategy. It's the

16:07

other people that should have been

16:09

using this strategy all along if

16:12

it was so great going back

16:14

decades. Let me give you a

16:17

hint. They never exist. It's always

16:19

the one dude on X or

16:21

Facebook. with the one strategy, with

16:24

the loud voice, telling you how

16:26

wonderful something is, without a shred

16:29

of freaking proof. Zero, none. Now

16:31

they might have some documented bullshit

16:33

in the moment. But where are

16:36

all the other people, if this

16:38

strategy was so great that they

16:41

promote, where are all the other

16:43

people who used it? Where are

16:45

all the other people who used

16:48

it? Where are all the other

16:50

people who believe in it? Where

16:53

are all the other people who

16:55

practice it? Now I know you

16:57

can come back to me and

17:00

you can say, Mike, what about

17:02

trend following? Where is all

17:04

the proof and trend following? Ladies

17:07

and gentlemen, eight books I've written.

17:09

There's 1,200 plus podcast episodes. If

17:11

you can't find the proof, you

17:14

don't want to know about proof.

17:16

You don't care about proof. You're

17:19

a degenerate gambler if you don't

17:21

want to know. And that's cool

17:23

man. We might have a great

17:26

time having dinner out one night.

17:28

We might laugh about this and

17:31

laugh about that. Now I probably

17:33

don't want anything to do with

17:35

you when it comes to business

17:38

or philosophy or working on a

17:40

project. But you might be a

17:43

fun individual if I don't have

17:45

to know anything about your life.

17:47

But what kind of life is

17:50

that? Who the hell wants to

17:52

have friends, family? Business associates. who

17:55

secretly are morons. I do sound

17:57

a today. Maybe it's my 35-day

17:59

trip to America. It leaves me

18:02

in that mood of just

18:04

seeing everything. Where are there places

18:06

in the world where you cannot

18:09

be pushed in front of a

18:11

train on the subway? Where are

18:13

there places in the world where

18:16

you cannot be shot up at

18:18

a New Year's Eve celebration in

18:21

New Orleans? Where are there places

18:23

in the world? where Tesla trucks

18:25

don't blow up in front of

18:28

Trump hotels. Those are good questions,

18:30

aren't they? And if you actually

18:33

sit down and write out the

18:35

answer, if you've got the balls

18:37

to write out the answer, and

18:40

you don't lie to yourself, then

18:42

you are on to something. You

18:45

know what that something is? Oh,

18:47

it's called the truth. So if

18:49

you can figure out where it's

18:52

impossible in this world to not

18:54

be pushed in front of a

18:57

subway train, If you

18:59

can figure out where that's

19:01

impossible to happen, then you've

19:03

learned something. Then you're going

19:05

down the rabbit hole. Then

19:07

you're pulling on the string.

19:09

Then you're really figuring out

19:11

how the world works. Tangent

19:13

over. The New Year is

19:15

upon us. I want everyone

19:17

to have trend following success.

19:19

Where would I recommend you

19:21

start for the New Year?

19:23

Four places. My fifth edition

19:25

of my book trend following.

19:27

My second edition of my

19:29

book, Turtle Trader. My second

19:31

podcast interview for free, online,

19:33

with Ed Secota. Again, my

19:35

second episode with Ed is

19:37

my favorite one. And lastly,

19:40

a video that I've prepared

19:42

that I will share with

19:44

anyone. If you want access

19:46

to that video. Drop me

19:48

an email, I'm easy to

19:50

find, Mike at COVID. And

19:52

if for some reason or

19:54

for some

19:56

reason you you

19:58

find it impossible

20:00

or you

20:02

can't figure out

20:04

how to

20:06

reach me, out how

20:08

to reach me, stop,

20:11

put down the technology. Something's

20:13

gone wrong. You're not

20:15

cut out for it. cut out

20:17

Simple Simple filter. Ladies and

20:19

gentlemen, I wish everybody a

20:21

very happy new year. very

20:23

happy new year. I wish and success

20:25

health a little wealth over

20:27

the course of this

20:29

year. of this year. as you

20:32

prepare for the unexpected, as

20:34

you prepare for the

20:36

unknown, the uncertain, as

20:38

you you ready? Are you really ready?

20:40

the Do you really have a strategy?

20:43

are if you don't,

20:45

I can help. really See

20:47

you again next week.

20:49

really have a strategy? Because if you don't,

20:51

I can a time when

20:54

those awake will understand

20:56

how to make money

20:58

in up, down surprise

21:00

markets. Whether new Whether new

21:02

trader or experienced, college

21:04

student or financial advisor, protecting

21:06

against a crash a just

21:08

trying to make a

21:11

lot of money, make a lot of

21:13

filing offers everyone an

21:15

answer in uncertain times. uncertain times.

21:17

To get started immediately, send

21:19

me an send me an email, Michael at Covel. I

21:21

I will send you the right

21:24

trend filing steps to take to

21:26

with my free video. free video. But if you

21:28

if you want to buy and

21:30

hold, trust the government

21:32

and trust Wall Street. Wall This

21:34

is absolutely not for you. for you.

21:45

you.