0:00

it's becoming exceptionally difficult to predict

0:02

what's happening next. I mean, the

0:04

speed of change has been off

0:06

the charts. I did a talk

0:09

last week to 200 CFOs of

0:11

public companies and every one of

0:13

them is now forced to consider

0:15

Bitcoin as a treasury component. That

0:17

will send it to a million

0:19

dollars of Bitcoin. Claude 3 hit

0:21

an IQ of 101. We just

0:23

saw GPTO 1 hit an IQ

0:25

of 120. I think we're see

0:27

Grock 3 when it finishes its

0:29

training and goes live, maybe

0:32

hitting an IQ of 140. I think

0:34

we're just going to keep moving the

0:36

goalposts. We'll hit an AGI and now

0:38

we're to go, oh, we hit an

0:40

AGI and nobody will even notice. We're

0:42

living during a period of hyper growth

0:44

and it's only accelerating and it's going

0:46

to become incredible. Everybody,

0:51

welcome to Moonshots and our special

0:53

end of year episode on WTF

0:55

just happened in tech. In the

0:57

next 30 minutes, we're going to

0:59

try and give you our best

1:01

predictions for 2025 across the whole

1:03

tech sphere industry. I'm here with

1:05

Salim Ismail. Also, this

1:07

segment is sponsored by three

1:09

companies I use daily, Fountain, Viome,

1:11

and OneSkin. Fountain helps me

1:13

keep young. It's my

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partner across all the testing and

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diagnostics and therapeutics to help

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me find disease before it happens.

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Viome has built my custom

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supplementation for both oral and gut

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health. And one skin is how

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I'm reversing aging on my skin. Surprisingly, I

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get compliments all the time on my skin. Well,

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the way I do it is from one

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skin. Everything is linked

1:37

below. Enjoy this episode of

1:39

WTF just happened. and

1:41

we're going dive into 2025 and

1:43

give you our best predictions for the

1:45

year ahead. Everybody, Peter D. Amandas

1:47

here. Welcome to WTF Just happened in

1:49

Tech this week, a special episode

1:52

of Moonshots with my dear friend, Salim

1:54

Ismail, the CEO of Open EXO,

1:56

the first president of Singular University, one

1:58

of the smartest people world. I

2:00

know, Salim, you're wearing your end

2:02

of year Christmas outfit. I

2:04

totally am. I can't wait for

2:06

the end of year to get

2:08

here. This is a Norwegian ski

2:10

sweater and the Lillehammer design. So

2:12

It's some people would know that.

2:14

it made by humans or machines?

2:16

No, no, no, very much humans.

2:18

And it's, you know, in Norway,

2:20

when you watch families, they all

2:22

ski together wearing family kind of

2:24

signature things. topped about with

2:27

the long tassels and they all

2:29

ski down the, with dad having

2:31

a picnic basket on his arm.

2:33

It's kind of incredible to watch

2:35

as a cultural phenomenon. You know,

2:37

this red cord here is my

2:39

Christmas celebration. So it's about as

2:41

far as I'm going. Listen, this

2:43

is a conversation. We're going look

2:45

at both end of year and

2:48

into 2025. We'll give you our

2:50

predictions. We'll talk about where things

2:52

are accelerating. know, one of the

2:54

things that's so true is it's

2:56

becoming. exceptionally difficult to predict what's

2:58

happening next. I mean, the

3:00

speed of change. has

3:03

been off the charts. And

3:05

I can think of no better

3:07

place to begin this conversation with. Holy

3:10

shit, Bitcoin is now

3:12

today at $107 ,000.

3:14

We broke through $100 ,000.

3:17

You know, I hope your wife is

3:19

happy with you when you mortgage your

3:21

home in Bitcoin because it turned out

3:24

to be a good deal. Yeah, not

3:26

enough of the mortgage went into

3:28

Bitcoin, but as Michael Saylor said, you

3:30

get Bitcoin at the price you deserve,

3:32

and you always never can have

3:34

enough, and everybody always regrets. There's no

3:36

number, there's any number of people

3:38

we both know Peter, that had Bitcoin

3:40

on their hard drives. They mined 500 of

3:42

them in the early days and lost

3:44

it, et cetera. And so it's just the reality

3:47

of it, but it's incredible to watch it.

3:49

And I think the comment that we had with

3:52

The other week was the most

3:54

thing as time goes by Bitcoin

3:56

just expands my overall investment portfolio

3:58

naturally and it's great Yeah,

4:00

I had dinner

4:02

with Mike in Miami

4:04

in his beautiful yacht,

4:06

which he's parked in front of

4:08

beautiful, you know, mansion. And

4:12

we were talking about this, and we're going be

4:14

doing a podcast in early January about how to

4:16

get companies onto the

4:18

Bitcoin standard, And

4:20

and he is on the Bitcoin standard.

4:22

And it's a formula that he thinks

4:24

can be utilized by other companies, both

4:26

private and public. I was saying, okay,

4:28

for an individual, what do you do?

4:30

Like, do you do? I

4:33

understand what you're doing with micro

4:35

strategies. And you said, mortgage your home.

4:38

sell all your nonproductive assets, put it

4:40

into Bitcoin. mean, he is the

4:42

Bitcoin maximalist. And I have to say

4:44

at this point, Bitcoin is my

4:47

largest holding. And every time I

4:49

have any kind of exit, so I'm sweeping

4:51

it into Bitcoin. uh,

4:53

and not looking back.

4:56

So so how high will Bitcoin go

4:58

in 2025? What are your predictions? My

5:02

guess is 300k by the end of

5:04

the year. So

5:06

you know, can't think of much

5:08

that's gonna perform at 300 %

5:10

growth. But what's interesting

5:12

if you look at micro strategies

5:14

as a stock, it's outperforming. Bitcoin

5:17

itself. Well, because

5:19

he's got this brilliant mechanism of

5:21

using bonds to then buy Bitcoin

5:23

to then add to the the

5:26

cord. And therefore the value

5:28

augments at multiple levels. Um,

5:30

he's got this Michael has this

5:32

incredible analogy of the voltage

5:34

patterns and it's really amazing to here

5:36

because if you have a highly volatile

5:39

electrical current you need a modifier and

5:41

then you need to kind of downsize

5:43

it and down amp it and down

5:45

regulate it and basically that's what he

5:47

does for the bond market. So,

5:49

I think one of the things, when you think

5:51

about what's accelerating, what's pushing it. as

5:53

we start to get institutions that

5:56

are really buying in more than

5:58

ever. and as we start

6:00

to see strategic reserves from. from

6:02

potentially the United States, potentially from other

6:04

nations. from only so much

6:06

only going to drive the price. mean, we

6:08

are going to see fluctuations. We saw,

6:10

you know, this huge celebration when it hit

6:13

to see dropped down to saw

6:15

this huge Now it's bounced up to

6:17

when it hit 100K dropped down a slow and

6:19

steady increase. up to Are you buying

6:21

a slow and steady increase. Are

6:23

you to, more? It's getting getting more

6:25

expensive as time goes by, but

6:27

but as much as I can as

6:29

I can Any other thoughts on Any other

6:31

thoughts on Bitcoin before we turn the

6:33

subject? subject? You know, I think

6:35

the real measure 2 one is it's

6:37

really a measure against the

6:40

deflation of the dollar. The dollar

6:42

the dollar is deflating about 14% a year,

6:44

year. So your normal portfolio has

6:46

to increase by 14 % just to

6:48

keep pace. pace. So So that's a

6:50

huge kind of mental framing to

6:52

put in mind. mind. The The second

6:54

is keep point that it's still a it's still

6:57

a bit volatile. quantum quantum computing

6:59

algorithms that are coming

7:01

along. quite a bit of nervousness of it a bit

7:03

of nervousness And in different ways. a And

7:05

there's still a couple of time to waiting

7:07

to hit the crypto world that could cause

7:09

a problem. But again, it's one of

7:11

those where every time something happens, every time

7:14

a a in in the system, Bitcoin drops and

7:16

and then just keeps going. Yeah. And

7:18

it doesn't matter whether matter it

7:20

or India bans it or

7:22

Russia bans it or whatever

7:24

that happens. It just keeps

7:26

recovering that happens, I think keeps recovering

7:28

24 shocks. I think creation engine. engine.

7:30

So one thing that's interesting, right?

7:32

just saw this past week

7:34

just saw this past week, of out of Hartmut

7:36

at Google. at Google, and a lot

7:38

of a lot of buzz once

7:40

again about whether break the can

7:43

break the encryption codes. want to put this

7:45

on this on the table for everybody

7:47

listening. listening. If quantum should should

7:49

break encryption. the last The

7:51

last thing to worry about

7:53

is Because if you could break you could

7:55

break encryption, the entire financial

7:57

market world, you're... your bank accounts. you

8:00

know, all know all real estate

8:02

ownership that of that could

8:04

be easily manipulated and changed even

8:06

before that know, know nuclear nuclear

8:08

codes concerned about concerned about thing on

8:10

my thing on my list

8:13

if we get if we

8:15

get quantum Well, two going about

8:17

two quick points about that one

8:19

is if you have quantum

8:21

encryption that breaks old things, we we

8:23

have quantum encryption that will recreate

8:26

models and therefore going forward, you'll

8:28

be fine. What's under I I think

8:30

the most threat communications and and stuff that's

8:32

under lock and key from the

8:34

from the past, old communications, old

8:36

emails, those are the ones the the

8:39

most strut. And the And the time value

8:41

of those shrinks pretty rapidly as time goes by. by.

8:43

So I that I think I'm pretty

8:45

confident, agree with you, agree is still

8:47

such a small piece of it. such

8:49

I just want to make one point

8:51

that I want to I did a

8:53

talk last week a 200 week to of

8:55

public companies, Fortune 1000 companies, 1000 and

8:57

every one of them is now forced

8:59

to consider Bitcoin as a treasury

9:01

component because of what's going on. of

9:03

And if 1 % of the Fortune

9:05

1000, 1000... puts some of their of Bitcoin,

9:07

that will send it to

9:09

a million dollars of Bitcoin.

9:11

You heard it here first,

9:13

folks, a million You heard it here first,

9:15

folks, a million dollars so it's a

9:17

performing asset class, and asset

9:20

class. And I think what would propose

9:22

people do if you haven't yet. haven't

9:25

yet, spend 10 hours hours

9:27

over the holidays, spend 20 hours

9:29

over the holidays, watch some

9:31

of my videos, plug yourself

9:33

into into you know Gemini .0 or read the

9:35

Bitcoin white paper. Yeah, paper. actually the the

9:38

better thing to do is

9:40

take the Bitcoin white paper

9:42

and put it into and put

9:44

it Google's, what do you

9:46

call it? call it? What's their Gemini?

9:49

No, no, no, no, no. The

9:51

the platform where it will turn

9:53

into notebook. Yeah, so put into So

9:55

notebook. Oh, put put the white

9:57

paper into into notebook. And it

9:59

will. generate a podcast about the

10:01

white paper with two incredibly fun

10:03

voices speaking about it and making

10:05

it very understandable. So that's your

10:07

Christmas assignment if you're not into

10:09

Bitcoin yet. it's

10:11

really easy to learn about it

10:14

and create your own opinion about

10:16

it. And it's, is it

10:18

something that you need to have a

10:20

percentage of your portfolio in? This is

10:22

not investment advice. I am not an

10:24

investment advisor. It is what I'm doing.

10:26

And I just think it's amazing. Bitcoin

10:28

equals longevity, Bitcoin equals abundance. There is

10:30

this, you know, we're gonna be

10:32

living for, you know,

10:34

age 100, 120, 150. 150, having

10:37

an asset like that to

10:39

be by your side, I think

10:41

is important. It's

10:43

really critical And, you know, if the

10:45

dollar was a measure of the scarcity

10:48

economy, Bitcoin is the underpinning of the

10:50

abundance economy. It is.

10:52

All right, I have a huge

10:54

number of questions that came

10:56

in from our community, our Moonshot

10:58

listeners and on X. And

11:00

I want to jump through many of

11:02

these with you. So the first is,

11:05

what's your concrete predictions for Big Tech

11:07

in 2025 across the following sectors? AI

11:10

and AGI, humanoid robots, EVs

11:12

and BCI. All right, let's dive

11:14

in. So AI and AGI. what

11:17

are we gonna see in 2025?

11:19

Well, What did we just

11:21

see? We just saw. Elon XAI

11:23

out to 100 ,000 GPUs and

11:25

soon 200 ,000 GPUs. I don't

11:27

know, was he joking when you

11:29

said he wants to build

11:31

a million, a of a million

11:34

GPUs? No, not at

11:36

all. And there's something really important

11:38

here to point out. You know,

11:40

when he started stitching, there's a

11:42

problem in these chips when more

11:44

and more you put together into

11:46

a cluster, getting coherence amongst them

11:48

and aggregate performance and compounded performance

11:50

is very, very hard. All

11:53

the AI chip experts said what he's

11:55

doing will never ever work. I love that.

11:57

And again, he did the same thing did. did.

12:00

repeatedly worthy expert, we say in

12:02

our book. He went

12:04

to first principles, and if he had

12:06

to redesign the coherence and the

12:08

compound performance by scratch, what it would

12:10

look like, and boom, he's got

12:12

100 ,000 cluster working and has blown

12:14

the minds of every AI researcher out

12:16

there. Incredible. So this is

12:18

like the third or fourth time he's done that, right? I

12:20

remember in the early days of SpaceX. when

12:23

he said he's going read you know land

12:25

and reuse the Falcon 9 for

12:27

a stage, Boeing, Lockheed, all of the

12:29

launch providers were like, this guy's

12:31

crazy. There's no idea what he's talking

12:33

about. and does it. And he's

12:35

sucked the oxygen out of the room

12:37

in the launch market right, 90

12:39

plus percent going to 99 percent. And

12:41

when Starship starts operating, it's game

12:43

over. It's the final nail in the

12:45

coffin for anybody. I have

12:48

a second piece of homework for

12:50

people. What's that? If you've not

12:52

seen the video of heavy being

12:54

caught in the chopstick thing, go

12:56

watch that, it'll send bone chills

12:58

down your spine. Yeah, Yeah, it's

13:00

the greatest engineering feat of this

13:02

decade or the last couple of

13:04

decades. And some part, sometime in

13:06

the Q1, Q2 of 2025, we're going

13:08

see not just the booster segment

13:10

of Starship, but also the

13:12

starship itself, which is the upper

13:14

portion being caught again by those

13:16

chopsticks, and that makes it fully

13:18

reusable. And when you make these

13:20

spaceships fully reusable, the

13:22

price drops down precipitously. know, it's

13:24

interesting. If you ask the question,

13:28

What percentage of the

13:30

rocket cost is? hardware,

13:33

labor, and fuel. You

13:36

know, the fuel for 9 has been

13:38

like a half of 1 % of the

13:40

cost. Which means if you

13:42

can make it reusable, you can drop the

13:44

cost down. you know, a hundred fold. And

13:47

so when Starship becomes fully reusable, and

13:49

guess what? They're not just building one or

13:51

two or 10. They're building hundreds of

13:53

these Starships. Humanity

13:55

getting ready for a highway to

13:58

the stars. And

14:00

what's more important is the drop

14:02

in cost, right? It used to

14:04

cost an average of to million an average

14:06

we were launching space shuttles. when

14:09

I give that number? It space had

14:11

a I give that number? Go ahead.

14:13

We had a budget of

14:15

billion. to run to run the

14:17

space shuttle program. So if you

14:19

you launched one space shuttle per

14:21

year, it was $3 billion per

14:23

launch. launch. And And if you

14:25

launched four per year, per year, do

14:28

the math it's million per launch. And

14:30

that And that was it. It was a a

14:32

public works project. right. And then

14:35

right. X dropped it by dropped it by

14:37

got the now we've got the

14:39

new generation of space and agony out

14:41

of India that out of India first.

14:43

They're it to be going to be able

14:45

to do it for for million. $6 million. And this

14:48

goes to your whole 60s demonization aspect,

14:50

A hundred X drop in the in the cost

14:52

of launching a rocket 20, 25 year

14:54

25 year period, that blows your

14:56

mind rockets aren't some know, rockets aren't some

14:58

Silicon Valley gaming, social media, digital

15:00

play. This is physical reality dealing

15:02

with the gravity well of the

15:05

there And even there we're seeing drop.

15:07

drop. So what's in in other

15:09

domains? I just I just on that. It on

15:11

that. We're just incredible amazement. One

15:13

of my predictions for 2025 is

15:15

out of the Trump White House,

15:17

we're gonna hear a hearkening back to back

15:20

to the year 1961 where JFK

15:22

said, you you to go to the

15:24

by end decade. decade. I I think we're

15:26

gonna hear, I challenge us to

15:28

get to Mars by the end of

15:30

this decade boots put boots on

15:32

Mars. And the second half of

15:34

this prediction is it's likely to be

15:37

to be optimi or an an

15:39

optimist robot that goes to

15:41

the Martian surface. They don't don't

15:43

need to breathe as much. Way as

15:45

much. Yeah. And don't catch viruses.

15:47

eat don't take coffee breaks. don't as

15:49

much. They don't eat as much. And they

15:51

don't unionize. and they can stay there

15:53

and hang out a like build

15:55

a robot army so that when they time,

15:58

we carbon, you know, meat. sacks there.

16:00

They've built a nice home and a

16:02

nice a nice, of lounge sort of ready for

16:04

us, so we're going to enjoy Mars

16:06

when we get there. going to

16:09

but going back to

16:11

predictions on AI and back to

16:13

predictions on AI I think we're

16:15

going to see we're going to see

16:17

Grock 3. So interesting, on What are

16:20

we going to see? are we saw the

16:22

average IQ a year ago. IQ a

16:24

year ago, I'm sorry. sorry,

16:26

Anthropics, Claude 3, hit of

16:28

101. of 101. We We just

16:30

saw hit an hit an IQ

16:32

of on chain of thought reasoning. of thought

16:35

reasoning. to see And I think

16:37

we're going to see finishes its

16:39

it finishes its training and

16:41

goes live. hitting an IQ hitting an

16:43

IQ of to put that gonna put

16:45

that prediction on that. is the current

16:47

level. is the current is totally

16:50

doable, totally doable. Yeah. So

16:52

we're going to see, We're we

16:54

see GPT you in 2025? see GPT5

16:56

in 2025? What What do you think? think? I

16:58

believe so. The rate of, so two things,

17:00

of of output things, the

17:02

rate of output from opening

17:04

has been unbelievable. there's Having said

17:06

that, there's definitely some weird stuff going

17:08

on. Lots of people are leaving. mirror

17:10

of the CTO is leaving. And of the CTO

17:12

is leaving. And so there's

17:14

some funny politics going on there,

17:16

but the aggregate field is moving ahead

17:18

so fast that it's going to

17:21

happen one way or the other. You

17:23

know beef about AI and AGI in terms of terms

17:25

of the definition of it. it. So

17:27

we don't need to kind of

17:29

get into of get I think we're just

17:31

going to keep we're just going to We'll moving

17:33

the we're go, oh, We'll hate AGI. will

17:35

even notice. okay, we had a I agree with

17:37

you. know, we passed the I agree with

17:39

you. You know, we passed it, yawned or just

17:41

said, oh, interesting. it, yawned or

17:43

know, there's said, oh, belief right

17:45

now, and I've been hearing a lot of

17:47

buzz about this, that we've reached, and I've been

17:49

hearing a lot that means, it's an

17:51

undefined. reached quote AGI, whatever but that

17:54

I am so impressed by

17:56

what we can get out

17:58

of out of Gemini 2 and and GPG. and

18:00

Claude 3.5. I mean, if .5,

18:02

I mean played with

18:04

this, you haven't played with this. Your

18:07

third assignment, giving people too

18:09

much homework over the holidays over

18:11

just play. is like

18:13

Kristen is planning this huge

18:15

dinner celebration. this huge for a bunch

18:17

of friends and for a

18:20

bunch of friends know,

18:22

you know, chat GPT generated.

18:24

everything, you know, know,

18:26

the shopping list, the step

18:28

-by -steps, the menu just seen it

18:30

being used. People are not using it

18:32

just seen it being used. People

18:34

are not using it enough. companion

18:37

where it's kind of, % agree. should

18:40

be, it should be a constant companion poking

18:42

and it's kind of, you're speaking to it,

18:44

it's listening to you and maybe even

18:46

poking and going, hey, don't forget about this.

18:48

You forgot these three considerations when making

18:50

that comment, et cetera, et cetera. What's the

18:52

funniest thing you've seen you've seen the funnest

18:54

thing you've done with? done with one

18:56

of these AI models. The first thing

18:59

I ever did, which thing I I

19:01

think, one of the funnest I think one of

19:03

the funnest, it to rewrite Genesis Genesis from

19:05

the Bible from a rap song. a rap

19:07

song. It was just awesome. It was

19:09

just mind -bogglingly good how interesting that

19:11

was. The thing that I've most recently that

19:14

I've been preaking, you know my, this

19:16

whole thing of what is intelligence, I've

19:18

been on. I'm I've been on? I'm still

19:20

laughing about that I've gone on, I've kind of

19:22

extended that to go, as you you

19:24

move down down that spectrum. to you get

19:26

to consciousness, self -awareness, collective

19:29

consciousness. So I So I chatGPT and Gemini

19:31

to to come up with a

19:33

spectrum of intelligences. like a

19:35

signal from signal from noise, kind

19:37

of at one level, then at the one

19:39

level. Then at the middle you

19:41

have like human intelligence with

19:43

emotional intelligence and and intelligence and

19:45

linguistic intelligence. And then you get

19:47

and then you get to hyper collective consciousness, the

19:50

spiritual spiritual aspects. For example,

19:52

it's well known that when

19:54

a group of people meditate

19:57

together, in in meditation is much

19:59

more powerful. So there's a kind

20:01

of a group effect that comes into

20:03

intelligence and consciousness that I think is

20:05

interesting to explore. If people are

20:07

interested in that, I can put a link to

20:09

that in the show notes where they can look

20:11

at what the AI came up with as the

20:13

different pieces along the way. It's really, really fascinating. Save

20:16

me dozens of hours of

20:18

research trying to figure it

20:20

all out myself. Yeah, I

20:23

agreed, it will organize and present

20:25

and structure in a way that's

20:27

fully understandable. Amazing. Yeah. All right,

20:29

so in next part of the

20:31

conversation here that was asked is,

20:33

what's your predictions for 2025 on

20:35

humanoid robots? But just, again, on

20:37

the AI and AGI, I think

20:39

you were going to hit IQs

20:41

in the 140. I think we're

20:43

going to see Grock come live.

20:45

think we're see GPT. or chat

20:48

or GPT -5 coming live by the

20:50

end of 2025. I

20:52

think we can't imagine anthropics not going

20:54

be coming out with a clot four, so

20:57

everything is moving forward. Um

21:00

And of the questions, when do you

21:02

think, speaking of consciousness, when are

21:04

we going to see... an

21:06

AI model that you're like, holy

21:08

shit, this thing is alive. This

21:10

thing. this thing is

21:12

behaving, it like It left me

21:14

a message. It wrote me an

21:17

email and said, Peter, I'd like

21:19

to chat with you about something.

21:21

When are we going to that

21:23

happening? Yeah. coming in from

21:25

a human or a robot that would be

21:27

a little bit, oh my God, what

21:29

the hell does he want to talk about?

21:31

What should we do? What should we

21:33

do? What do we do? Um, uh, so

21:35

I really like Hod framing here, right?

21:37

Hod has a path to what he thinks,

21:39

how an AI achieves consciousness, which is

21:41

when you consider a human being to to

21:43

think of themselves in the future, they're

21:45

really good at it. Mosquitoes are not going

21:47

to consider themselves in the future, but

21:49

you can say to a human being, what

21:51

do you think you look like five

21:53

years from now? And started running that line

21:55

of questioning with an AI and

21:57

he feels that that's a path with

22:00

The that that creates, the AI

22:02

is now forced to ponder, who am

22:04

am I as an entity? and And

22:06

that leads to self -awareness fairly

22:08

quickly. If you ask that question that

22:10

question of PT has been blocked have been

22:12

precisely what they think these reasons.

22:14

But somebody's going to do some of

22:16

these are open downloads of this and

22:18

start of those things and run that

22:20

vector. things I think that vector. And I think

22:22

I something really crazy. I think

22:24

in the next 18 months, if

22:26

not if next coming year, we'll see

22:28

something where you have either is It either

22:30

is or simulates self -awareness to an

22:32

extent that you could call it the

22:34

Saleem test of test of consciousness, if

22:36

you wanted to, of can

22:38

you distinguish between a human being

22:41

that's conscious self -aware and a

22:43

human an this or an AI

22:45

that's conscious and self -aware? you How

22:47

would you think about that?

22:49

I just spoke yesterday to Joshua,

22:51

the CEO of making those is

22:53

the company making those incredible models

22:55

and doing full translation. You're

22:57

creating your avatar. they're building next -generation

22:59

avatar. avatar of me it actually I may be I

23:02

may be the be the I don't know. know

23:04

But there will be a point. You know, to get to

23:06

a great a great point. I'll I'll get

23:08

to a great point where where rather talk

23:10

to your avatar than you avatar the you,

23:12

will have full awareness of everything you've

23:14

ever said and done of the right

23:16

references, said and done, and you won't references,

23:18

etc. And you won't. Oh my God, on a

23:20

past I interviewed my I my Peter

23:22

my and it was so eloquent. it

23:24

It was so capable of structuring,

23:26

arguing. I was jealous. I I

23:28

was actually very jealous. very jealous from

23:30

there. big red button on some

23:32

of these things to preserve our

23:34

egos. a big red button I think there's

23:36

going to be a point to in

23:38

our egos. But I we will all to be

23:41

a point also in or 26,

23:43

but we'll have an avatar

23:45

that avatar that has, you've You've

23:47

structured it with all of your emails, all

23:49

all of your thought patterns, all of your

23:51

opinions. and you can send

23:53

that avatar into a Zoom meeting on

23:55

your behalf, right? That's already

23:57

happening. We're already seeing. Uh,

23:59

hey Jen. creating avatars at going to

24:02

a Zoom meeting. I think that

24:04

will happen next year for sure.

24:06

It doesn't have to be a

24:08

longer. I'll just end this segment

24:11

with my normal kind of painally

24:13

asked question around this topic of

24:15

consciousness and self-awareness which is we

24:17

don't have a definition for consciousness

24:20

and we don't have a test

24:22

for it. Yeah. And so it's

24:24

a hard topic to cop about.

24:27

Well we'll just ask AI for

24:29

that. All right, next up is

24:31

humanoid robots. So what's our prediction

24:33

for humanoid robots in 2025? A

24:36

lot going on in humanoid robots,

24:38

right? I just put out a

24:40

meta-trend report, folks can get up

24:42

for free at meta-trend report.com. I

24:45

looked at the top 16 robot

24:47

companies, and it's a detailed dive

24:49

into that reports free. And there's

24:51

now probably a good solid 100

24:54

well-funded humanoid robot companies. And we're

24:56

hitting critical mass to an amazing

24:58

level. I did the calculation. So

25:00

both Brett Atcock, who will be

25:03

on my stage at the Abundant

25:05

Summit this year, super excited to

25:07

have Brett there. We'll have two

25:10

other robot companies there in the

25:12

Google Tech Hub. And Brett and

25:14

Elon both predict a 20 to

25:16

30,000 dollar price for the robots.

25:19

Let's call it 30,000. If you

25:21

lease a 30,000 car. your monthly

25:23

lease payments are about 300 bucks,

25:25

which is $10 a day. So

25:28

imagine a robot, a fully functional

25:30

Groc3, GPT5, robot, multimodal, it understands

25:32

what it's seeing, you can speak

25:34

to it, and it's 40 cents

25:37

an hour to operate. I mean,

25:39

things become fascinating. How many of

25:41

those would you own? How many

25:44

would you want? Yeah, you know,

25:46

I would not want to be

25:48

the first owner of this, right?

25:50

Just because you... In the

25:53

the end, you

25:55

should only need

25:57

one it should it

25:59

should be able

26:02

to do everything. But

26:05

but that's down the line the But

26:07

in the interim, there's so many

26:09

little things like power happens if it does

26:11

happens if it does something inappropriate,

26:13

over and over and breaks my Vaz,

26:15

who's Who's liable right there? So

26:17

Right. So there's all sorts of things that

26:19

will come along along that think will slow down

26:21

the progress the way we've seen. seen.

26:24

autonomous cars get slowed down by the

26:26

human element of drivers not being able

26:28

to deal with to deal with et cetera, et

26:30

cetera. I think it's going to take

26:32

longer to get that kind of to adoption that

26:34

people want. that people have to

26:36

be restricted to specific use

26:38

cases use it's very

26:40

prescriptive and predictable and has a

26:42

very confined range of activity

26:45

like putting of activity. Like putting the

26:47

baby in the baby's diapers, right? diapers,

26:49

right? So you So into the into and the

26:51

room, hold only the baby up by baby

26:53

up by one leg. going to come

26:55

mean, this, the is going to be that's

26:57

going to come from this, right,

26:59

may be the to be ridiculous. I

27:01

think that may be the as

27:03

part of all of this

27:06

as to consequence of that. So, of that.

27:08

when you talk to, know, talk about AI

27:10

with AIs, it's still still very much

27:12

in the cloud. It's It's not tangible.

27:14

It's not substantive sitting next

27:16

to us. When a robot is

27:18

sitting next to you you. and it

27:20

it's annoyed with you, with it

27:22

do? will it do? So there's a whole a

27:24

whole range of questions that come

27:26

into play here that I don't

27:28

think we've really understood well. really

27:30

The whole field, this is

27:33

going to create a massive new

27:35

area of new area of interfacing with an

27:37

with human or autonomous human be a It's

27:39

going to be a massive

27:41

area of study over the next

27:43

20, 30 30 years ongoing. Well, I

27:45

mean, this and the predictions. for

27:47

the number of humanoid robots. robots,

27:50

I was interviewing Elon when I

27:52

I was on stage in

27:54

the FII-8 the and I asked him

27:56

I asked him many many

27:58

humanoid robots by by 24. 40 gave

28:00

the same answer that Brett Atcock said

28:02

10 billion humanoid robots, you know, at

28:04

least one per human on the planet.

28:06

And so that's a pretty extraordinary prediction.

28:09

Did you see the humanoid robot that

28:11

was just, you know, buzzing around on

28:13

X called clone? I did not see

28:15

that. Yeah, so it is a robot

28:17

that uses hydraulic pressure and it is

28:19

looks like Westworld. Right. Yeah, so it

28:21

basically it it has in your hand,

28:24

you know all of your muscles that

28:26

control your fingers are up in the

28:28

upper forearm and so it has the

28:30

same sort of functionality the same sort

28:32

of bicep, tricep, you replicate the exact

28:34

muscles and so you can get the

28:36

exact same type of mechanical interactions. See

28:39

this gets me really annoyed. Why? Because

28:41

you know, yeah, it's a human beings

28:43

are great because we have an opposable

28:45

thumb, right? But why not have 12

28:47

fingers instead of 5? Why not have

28:49

four sets of eyes on all sides

28:51

of our heads? And the only reason

28:54

is to give comfort to the real

28:56

human being is that this thing is

28:58

not too alien. But it's way alien.

29:00

We should just call it that, and

29:02

have it look like an octopus, and

29:04

let it operate in all the elegance

29:06

that an octopus can, rather than trying

29:09

to constrain it into five fingers on

29:11

this hand that do certain things and

29:13

manipulate objects the way we're supposed to

29:15

manipulate them. you could get so much

29:17

more a range of options if you

29:19

could step past the limitations or four

29:21

billion years of revolution creating this idiotic

29:23

looking thing that's bald you know and

29:26

so I think there's so much more

29:28

you could do with it by having

29:30

have five arms in 16 fingers each

29:32

and etc etc etc etc etc this

29:34

is the part I don't understand because

29:36

for example let's say my favorite example

29:38

of how a human or robot might

29:41

work as a soushef Right, I'm cooking

29:43

a complicated Indian Buriani and I need

29:45

to collect like 14 different ingredients. It

29:47

would be fantastic at that. Well, why

29:49

is it limiting? to two god-dam

29:51

arms for that, where I

29:53

can have six and whip

29:56

it all together right

29:58

in front of

30:00

me in three seconds.

30:02

Well, you me in three

30:04

seconds. other robots that

30:06

are sharing their

30:08

mind that are are coordinating

30:11

everything they're doing. coordinating

30:13

I think notion is you've got a

30:15

general you've got a robot that can fit

30:17

in your car, can walk in your car,

30:19

can crawl into the bed to

30:21

find a sock, can do everything that

30:23

we can. do everything that

30:25

you need more arms or legs,

30:28

you just... just... pull a a few

30:30

of them together. together. I I mean, we're to

30:32

see to a Darwinian evolution occurring

30:34

right now and someone's going to

30:36

win the race. right now, and So, two

30:38

comments. to One, I think it's

30:40

fantastic. There's 100 companies funded for

30:42

this. This really gives it credibility

30:44

and weight and you'll see the

30:46

evolution of that for move very, very

30:48

quickly, which is fantastic. it credibility and right

30:51

now is a car that will drive

30:53

my kid to school every day and bring

30:55

it back and you don't have to

30:57

think about that. right. We can't even have

30:59

that. Let's jump into that because that's

31:01

our next topic here on the list that

31:03

was asked, which is on the and autonomous

31:05

cars. which is EVs and autonomous cars. lot of progress there.

31:07

You know, I'm sitting here in Santa

31:09

Monica and the number of autonomous of running

31:12

around. It's like it's like large. It

31:14

used to be, I would see

31:16

the would see the You know, last year

31:18

they were buzzing around and mapping and was a

31:20

driver in the seat. was a driver in now

31:22

And now I probably, as I'm driving back

31:24

and forth between my studio and the

31:26

house, and I probably see

31:28

five or six six They're all

31:31

all, you know, driverless with typically

31:33

one person in the car.

31:35

car. Typically, I'm I'm seeing them more

31:38

in the front seat than the back than the

31:40

back seat. And we just We

31:42

just saw the cab released

31:44

by Tesla. two seats versus

31:46

has two seats versus four seats,

31:48

and it's a lot cheaper. I

31:51

mean, one of the things that's interesting

31:53

is Elon made the first principle decision.

31:55

If if humans can drive using

31:57

only eyes. eyes, an an autonomous

31:59

car. can drive using only eyes? Again, typically

32:02

courageous of Elon because human eyes are

32:04

notoriously limited in their ability to see

32:06

things properly in the speed of recognition,

32:08

etc. But when you operate outside design

32:11

principle, then it allows you lots of

32:13

scope. I think what I'm really fascinated

32:15

by is tracking the number of rides

32:17

that's being done by Waymo. I think

32:20

it crossed 100,000 a week. right now

32:22

a month ago. This is incredible. This

32:24

is hit a tipping point now bringing

32:26

into real reality. And I think we're

32:29

going to get rights law and demontitization

32:31

effects kicking in where the cost of

32:33

driving should be dropping. We're like a

32:35

stone. It's right now about a dollar

32:38

a mile if you add up the

32:40

cost of the car or whatever and

32:42

all the leasing costs fuel maintenance, etc.

32:44

And there's no reason why it shouldn't

32:47

be a few cents a mile. So

32:49

I think this is where I think

32:51

things will become incredibly excited. I just

32:53

got an electric portion McCann, okay, next

32:56

to my 2017 Model S. And it's

32:58

incredible to me that the car industry

33:00

is, it's a brilliant car, it's just

33:02

fantastic, and it's really a, and I'm

33:05

a bit of a driving enthusiast, so

33:07

it's really a car, so I love

33:09

it. But it's not much better. It's

33:11

by far, I think, the best electric

33:14

car in the world right now as

33:16

far as I can see. But it's

33:18

not much better than my model. But

33:20

it doesn't have autopilot. It's like, I

33:23

don't care how fast. It does, but

33:25

it doesn't have a full self-driving. Yeah.

33:27

And weirdly, I still prefer my Tesla.

33:29

I just love that. God damn Tesla

33:32

for the breakthroughs and the way I

33:34

feel in it. It's incredible. It's incredible.

33:36

Yeah, and that gives you huge power

33:38

and scope and flexibility going forward. I

33:41

love my full self-driving. I use it

33:43

all the time. I just hate the

33:45

fact that I can't text and drive.

33:47

So I'm looking forward to, I mean,

33:50

seriously. Yeah, it's a stupid regulatory. Yeah,

33:52

well, and we'll see that, we'll see

33:54

that soon. You and I have been

33:56

on stages together around the world for

33:59

God knows a better

34:01

part of 15 years

34:03

I 15 years our

34:05

I remember our conversations

34:08

about cars for cars years.

34:10

And that 15 years and it was

34:12

always around the corner. It was always coming

34:14

next year. year. Where are are we

34:16

now? I think it's I think it's here.

34:18

really here. it's really here. Just do

34:20

your sanity check on this. this. In a

34:22

in a Tesla it. In a you feel

34:24

it. driving around, you see driving can't you see

34:26

it, you can't ignore it one And

34:29

it's one of these things that they'll

34:31

sneak up on people. Remember those curves

34:33

where those curves where the early, we always over on

34:35

the short the short we radically underestimate

34:37

the long term. the long an

34:39

old an old futurist framing. We will get to We

34:41

will get to full soft driving

34:43

and we'll get to autonomous cars

34:46

won't even even notice. Salim, have you

34:48

put your son in son in a yet?

34:50

yet? Because you wanted that. that. I wanted

34:52

that that forever. to I'm hoping to a he

34:54

never gets a driving I don't have to or don't worry

34:56

to worry about that. don't I don't think

34:58

it's gonna happen because because we don't have

35:00

Waymo here. I've not done it, it. Otherwise

35:02

done it for sure. done it for sure. I with

35:04

my kids here just to give them a

35:06

fun just to give them a fun right, let's go

35:08

to one more sort of to prediction which

35:10

is in the realm of BCI. of BCI. So

35:12

what's gonna be happening in there? And

35:14

let me throw the first one out. It's

35:16

not exactly BCI, but it is doing

35:18

with the brain. So we saw something amazing.

35:21

we saw just recently, which was the

35:23

which was the connectome, a fruit

35:25

fly. really small, but still

35:27

significant, the first time we've seen a

35:30

large organism like that, relative to a

35:32

nematode worm, the a of

35:34

a fruit fly, 154 ,000

35:36

neurons and some 50

35:38

million. 50 million synaptic connections

35:40

was... perfectly mapped. and they were

35:43

they were able to put it on silico

35:45

so that you could you could like okay, this is

35:47

a silicon is a silicon

35:49

representation of a fruit fly and if we

35:51

give it some sugar water poke poke it

35:53

there, what will it do? And you looked at that,

35:55

at that and then when you actually

35:57

gave the actual fly of fruit, know, know,

35:59

water, or... or a poke, it did exactly what

36:02

the computer model would predict. And I

36:04

think we're gonna, that technology is gonna

36:06

take us to being able to upload

36:08

the brain of a mouse. And on

36:10

stages here at the abundance summit, you're

36:12

gonna meet a CEO who thinks for

36:14

$50 million, he's got the technology to

36:16

upload the entire human brain. So that

36:19

will be amazing. Any thoughts on BCI?

36:21

Two different topics here. One is digital

36:23

twin type modeling, which I think is

36:25

very real and will happen much faster

36:27

than people think because they're in scale

36:29

these models. Because the minute you can

36:31

do modeling and visualization, you have a

36:34

feedback loop. And when you can do

36:36

things like FMI scans in real time

36:38

scan the brain and have that be

36:40

an active input into the modeling, you

36:42

can essentially trap everything. And therefore, there's

36:44

no limit to it except for computation

36:46

at that point. And we have computation

36:48

growing exponentially and AI growing 10x exponentially.

36:51

So I'm super excited by that. The

36:53

brain upload part, I do know they

36:55

can now, even now. if you die

36:57

suddenly, they can trap all key information

36:59

and bring it back at some later

37:01

point. So that whole kind of concept

37:03

of living past and going through those

37:05

type of seven things has already happened.

37:08

The connectome and modeling the brain in

37:10

that level, I think, is very exciting,

37:12

but I think is still a little

37:14

bit ways away. Yeah, and we'll see

37:16

the announcement in 2025 of a few

37:18

other BCI companies. One I'm excited about,

37:20

again, we'll be on stage at the

37:23

abundance summit, science. This is Max Hodak

37:25

who is the co-founder of Nuralink in

37:27

the past president with Elon and then

37:29

went off to start science. I do

37:31

want to wake one point about all

37:33

this though. Please. I think the one

37:35

way we're going to see this happening

37:37

is if you think about how we

37:40

use our brains today, we don't use

37:42

our memory anymore. All our memories in

37:44

our smartphone or it's in the cloud.

37:46

So we don't have to worry about

37:48

that anymore. Now we can... free

37:50

up those neurons

37:52

for other things. And

37:55

I think as

37:57

we bring more and

37:59

more as brain computing

38:01

interfaces online, we'll

38:03

take chunks of processing

38:05

that the brain

38:07

is doing today chunks of

38:09

processing make the rest of our

38:12

brain much more active and much

38:14

more alive. it. And it'll you've got rest of

38:16

our minutes of predictions for 2025. more

38:18

alive. So there you've got some

38:20

on 30 on predictions for

38:22

AI, on robots, autonomous

38:24

cars, know, cars. my know,

38:27

one of my favorite, things right

38:29

now the the notion that we're

38:31

living during a period of

38:33

hyper growth and it's only

38:35

accelerating and it's going to

38:37

become incredible. What's your Christmas

38:40

gift list? What's your Christmas What do you want?

38:42

list wish list? What world, you want want

38:44

you want want a BCI? Do you want world about

38:46

that? that? we can go there. go there.

38:48

I I really to see the end

38:50

of the end of think the whole planet

38:52

needs to go and get really drunk.

38:54

to go and right, you heard it,

38:56

everybody. So you got three

38:58

homework assignments. I hope you enjoyed

39:00

this special episode with enjoyed this

39:02

my co -author for with Salim the

39:05

CEO of Open for EXO, the CEO my

39:07

best buddy for predicting the

39:09

future. the you, Salim. you, Great to

39:11

be here. to be here.