Episode Transcript
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0:00
This BBC podcast is supported
0:02
by ads outside the UK. Hello
0:04
and thank you for downloading the
0:06
more or less podcast with the
0:08
programme that looks at the numbers
0:10
in the news and I'm Charlotte
0:13
McDonald. It's been a busy
0:15
week for Donald Trump. The
0:17
office of President of the United
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States. He was sworn in as
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the 47th President of the
0:23
United States. Signed a wallop
0:25
of executive orders. The Golden
0:27
Age of America begins. and
0:29
launched his own currency. Well,
0:32
a currency of sorts. Yes,
0:34
Donald Trump has reduced something
0:36
called a mean coin, and
0:38
the headlines got pretty excited
0:40
about it, with the telegraph
0:42
stating, Trump becomes one of
0:45
world's richest men after $43
0:47
billion crypto coin launch. But is
0:49
this really true? And what is a
0:51
mean coin anyway? Let's start
0:54
with the BBC's cyber correspondent Joe
0:56
Tidy, who is the proud owner
0:58
of some Malania coin, the First Lady's
1:00
own venture into mean coin land. A
1:02
mean coin is a bit of a joke,
1:05
cryptocurrency really. People can create
1:07
coins themselves, anyone can do
1:09
it, and there are thousands
1:12
of them. Cryptocurrency is a
1:14
digital form of currency created using
1:16
encryption algorithms. sexy, huh? Some, such
1:19
as Bitcoin, are able to be
1:21
used like regular currency in some
1:23
places. Meme coins don't work quite
1:25
like that. There are shops and online
1:28
services where they'll trade Bitcoin for
1:30
everything from coffees to houses in
1:32
some countries, but with Meme coins
1:34
there's no real purpose to them.
1:36
They're just sort of fun, and
1:38
they're a way of making money,
1:40
essentially. People can speculate on these
1:43
coins, and they go up and
1:45
down in value quite wildly. The
1:47
T's and C's for Trump's meme
1:49
coin are totally explicit about this.
1:51
They say it's intended to
1:53
function as an expression of
1:56
support for and engagement with
1:58
the ideals and beliefs. embodied
2:00
by the symbol Trump and the
2:02
associated artwork. And they're definitely not.
2:04
An investment opportunity, investment contract, or
2:06
security of any type. This might
2:08
be the intention. You can be
2:11
the judge, but they are definitely
2:13
being traded as if they are
2:15
a financial asset. The basic concept
2:17
for buying mien coins is to
2:19
trade them in the hopes that
2:21
someone, somewhere, will pay more for
2:23
them than you. But this is
2:25
all a risk, a speculation as
2:27
the Victorians would call it. The
2:29
value of any cryptocurrency is constantly
2:31
in flux, and meme coins are
2:33
especially volatile. The idea is that
2:35
there is scarcity. There are only
2:37
a certain number of coins that
2:39
are ever going to be minted
2:42
and created, and if I own
2:44
some of those coins now, then
2:46
someone will want to pay more
2:48
in the future. It's basically
2:50
a bit like old-fashioned coin collecting.
2:52
The new numismatists, if you will.
2:55
Each of these little trump coins
2:57
is unique. They cannot be replicated.
2:59
However, instead of physical binders with
3:02
meticulously ordered coins, lovingly displayed, you
3:04
get a virtual wallet and a
3:06
little graphic of a coin with
3:09
Trump's face on it. Although it
3:11
turns out that there are right
3:13
faf to actually get hold of.
3:16
It was a real process and
3:18
it just reminded me that this
3:20
isn't really for the kind of
3:23
the faint-hearted Malania supporters. These are
3:25
people who are already in cryptocurrency
3:27
who potentially are trying to make
3:30
money. But how much money has
3:32
this whole enterprise actually made Trump?
3:34
Is it really 43 billion dollars
3:37
like the telegraph said? That's the
3:39
claim, but it's a dubious claim
3:41
at best. I'm
3:44
Molly White. I am an independent
3:46
writer and researcher of the cryptocurrency
3:48
industry and the tech industry more
3:51
broadly, and I write the citation-needed
3:53
newsletter. The calculations the newspapers used
3:55
to get to the billions of
3:58
dollar values are fairly simple. They
4:00
rely on... on two basic things.
4:02
First, the fact that a billion
4:05
Trump coins would exist within the
4:07
next three years. Most cryptocurrencies have
4:09
a total cap of supply. So
4:12
for example, Bitcoin will never have
4:14
more than 21 million bitcoins. That's
4:16
the total cap. And the same
4:19
thing is true with the Trump
4:21
meme coin where they've only issued
4:23
200 million of them to date,
4:26
but eventually they will issue up
4:28
to 1 billion of these Trump
4:30
tokens on sort of a schedule.
4:33
Only a small proportion of these
4:35
coins are available to the public.
4:37
Most of them have been allocated
4:39
to companies affiliated with Donald Trump.
4:42
These own 80% of the coins.
4:44
Next thing, how much are they
4:46
worth? Well, you can't buy anything
4:49
with them. So they're only worth
4:51
what people are willing to pay
4:53
for them. The price of any
4:56
given cryptocurrency token is based on
4:58
the going price on a cryptocurrency
5:00
exchange, which is usually, you know,
5:03
the price that these tokens most
5:05
recently traded hands or the offer
5:07
prices on these tokens. This price
5:10
has been all over the place.
5:12
It peaked at over $70 per
5:14
coin over the weekend, at time
5:17
of recording. It's sitting in the
5:19
30s. The two numbers, the supply
5:21
and the price, are how you
5:24
get to a massive valuation. There's
5:26
something called the fully diluted valuation
5:28
of a token, and that is
5:31
multiplying the token price by the
5:33
total future possible number of tokens
5:35
that could circulate. So that again
5:38
is how the prices of, you
5:40
know, $53 billion are being achieved
5:42
because there could in the future
5:45
be up to one billion Trump
5:47
tokens circulating and at a price
5:49
of, say, $53 you multiply that
5:52
by that billion and you get
5:54
the fully diluted valuation. News outlets
5:56
have just multiplied the Trump mean
5:59
coin price by the theoretical. number
6:01
of all coins he could have
6:03
a share of. That's 80% of
6:06
1 billion, so 800 million. Most
6:08
of these coins do not exist
6:10
on the market yet, and there
6:13
is absolutely no guarantee that the
6:15
existing Trump tokens will retain their
6:17
value in a market that is
6:20
famously floppy. Trump's businesses also have
6:22
to be incredibly careful how they
6:24
sell off their 80% share, as
6:27
flooding the market could destroy the
6:29
value completely. There's also the issue
6:31
that a lot of these coins
6:34
were not bought with actual dollars.
6:36
Instead, people use other cryptocurrency, such
6:38
as one called salana, to purchase
6:41
them. And so then you have
6:43
this question of, okay, so is
6:45
every Trump token actually worth X
6:48
amount of salana, and then is
6:50
that amount of salana actually worth
6:52
the amount of dollars? At very
6:55
small numbers, it's fairly safe to
6:57
assume that a major cryptocurrency like
6:59
Solana could be cashed out for
7:02
dollars to the extent that the
7:04
price reflects, but once you get
7:06
above large numbers, especially when you're
7:09
talking about billions of US dollars,
7:11
those assumptions very quickly fall apart.
7:13
So, has Trump earned himself 43
7:16
billion dollars? He has not. We
7:18
don't really know if Trump has
7:20
made money from this venture yet,
7:23
or if he will in the
7:25
future. Forbes magazine, who do the
7:27
big list of billionaires, currently say
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his meme coin project adds zero
7:32
dollars to his net worth. Trump
7:34
and his companies might have sold
7:37
some of their cut already for
7:39
millions. They might sell more in
7:41
the future for billions. We don't
7:44
know. Whatever he makes, he somehow
7:46
managed to use his popularity to
7:48
create that money from basically thin
7:51
air. Saying that. Saying that. it
7:53
does seem like someone has already
7:55
made some serious money. According to
7:58
bubble maps... a company that tracks
8:00
the public crypto data one minute
8:02
after the Trump coins were released,
8:05
one anonymous account known only as
8:07
6Q SC2, bought millions of dollars
8:09
worth of the meme coin before
8:12
selling most of them later for
8:14
a massive profit. One estimate says
8:16
they might have made more than
8:19
85 million dollars in a couple
8:21
of days. As for Joe, he's
8:23
going to cash in quick and
8:26
make sure his potentially newfound meme
8:28
coin wealth or keep him as
8:30
grounded as ever. Oh, I won't.
8:33
I will retire to an island
8:35
somewhere and forget a movie. Uh-huh.
8:37
Maybe whole booking that flight. Joe's
8:40
token value has dropped from $30
8:42
to $8. Maybe enough for a
8:44
pack of peanuts on the plane.
8:47
Well, that's all we have time
8:49
for this week. Thanks to Molly
8:51
White and Joe Tidy. Do remember
8:54
to keep your thoughts and comments
8:56
coming in to more or less
8:58
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