Navigating the Vortex
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Episodes
Episodes of Navigating the Vortex
Mark All
After a second consecutive night of deadly Russian air attacks – against the capital Kyiv on April 23 and the eastern Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad on April 24 – a ceasefire in Ukraine seems as unrealistic as ever.With Russian commitment to a dea
United States President Donald Trump is finding the reality of negotiations to bring about a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine yet again less easy than he imagined on the campaign trail before returning to the White House for a second term.
After more than three years of war, the prospects of peace for Ukraine remain slim. There is no obvious, credible pathway even to a ceasefire, given Russia's refusal to extend a brief and shaky truce over Easter — despite the US, UK and Ukraine
On April 3, flanked by the outgoing and incoming prime ministers of Greenland, the Danish leader, Mette Frederiksen, reiterated that “you cannot annex another country”. This was not a message sent to Russian president Vladimir Putin, but to Don
By Stefan Wolff and Tetyana MalyarenkoAfter more than two hours on the phone on Tuesday, March 17, the US president, Donald Trump, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, agreed to nothing more than what can at best be described as confide
By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan WolffOn March 11, 2025, senior US and Ukrainian officials reached an agreement on an American proposal for a thirty-day ceasefire in the war in Ukraine after nine hours of negotiations behind closed doors in Jedda
By Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan WolffA week is a long time in politics, and with Donald Trump in the White House, it's even longer in international affairs. It has been eight days since the infamous shouting match on February 28 between Trump
If there were international affairs Oscars in the category of biggest return for least investment, then the Russian president would have won hands down after the fiery blow-up between the US and Ukrainian presidents, Donald Trump and Volodymyr
The visit of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House on February 28, 2025, has not gone to plan. There were extraordinary scenes as a press conference between Zelensky and Trump descended into acrimony, with the US president l
There has been much and justified focus on the implications of a likely deal between US president Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and the overwhelmingly negative consequences this will have for Ukraine and Europe. But if
The last week has left European leaders in little doubt that they will be mostly on their own when it comes to providing security guarantees to Ukraine when Russia and the US have made a deal on the future of the country. This will most likely
European leaders are scrambling to respond to what looks like the end of reliable US protection of the continent. It is unclear what the “main European countries” (including the UK) might be able to agree beyond a hastily convened meeting in Pa
In an unprecedented decision on 6 December 2024, the Romanian constitutional court annulled the November 25 presidential elections after it received credible intelligence of large-scale external interference rigging the results of the first rou
Donald Trump never fails to surprise. But the bombshell that he dropped at his press conference with visiting Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 4, 2025, was of a completely different magnitude.He suggested that the United St
Three weeks before the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, EU leaders came together for their first-ever meeting solely dedicated to defence issues. At that February 3, 2025 gathering in Brussels, it was clear that Rus
We are now well beyond the 24 hours that Donald Trump had promised it would take him to secure an end to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. But Trump’s first week since his inauguration on January 20, 2025, has nonetheless been a bu
Even before taking office for his second term in the White House, Donald Trump gave some very clear indications of a renewed focus of American foreign policy on the western hemisphere. This included plans to buy Greenland, annex Canada and to r
Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20, 2025, is widely seen as ushering in a period of significant upheaval for US foreign policy, and a change in the way diplomacy is done.Trump’s favoured style of bluster and threats against
When Donald Trump first offered to buy Greenland in 2019, he was widely ridiculed and nothing much came of it, apart from a cancelled state visit to Denmark. Fast-forward six years and Trump’s renewed “bid” for the world’s largest island is bac
On December 31, 2024, the last contract that the Russian energy giant Gazprom had for the over-land supply of natural gas to Europe came to an end. This was the result of Ukraine refusing to renew the transit contract that had been in place sin
This is the podcast version of our analysis of the likely consequences of the end of over-land deliveries of Russian gas to Europe. You can read the original post, which includes a number of hyperlinks, here.We hope you'll share Navigating the
The 78th UN General Assembly High-Level Week: Spotlight on Ukraine and Sustainable Development Goals
This morning, the High-Level week of the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly gets under way in New York. This is the annual gathering of the heads of state and government of most of the UN’s member states. Notably absent this ye
The 15th BRICS Summit, held in South Africa from the 22nd to the 24th of August was predictably underwhelming in its lack of concrete outcomes. The BRICS, even after the addition of six new members next year, will be anything but an alternative
In this emergency episode of the "Navigating the Vortex," podcast Lucy P. Marcus and Stefan Wolffprovide a detailed analysis of Prigozhin’s fast march to Moscow, the role of key players, and the potential consequences, and opportunities, for th
Two reports out this week — the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects and the OECD’s Global Economic Outlook — paint a picture of slow growth and incremental recovery threatened by persisting economic, political, and environmental risks. Both
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