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Daily where the

2:01

big uglies are beautiful to us. I'm

2:03

Greg Rosenthal here with Nick Shook continuing

2:05

our look ahead to the NFL draft.

2:07

It's been a big week. We did

2:09

the quarterbacks, little mock draft, and now

2:11

we're going to take a look at

2:13

Nick Shook's favorite type of players, the

2:15

offensive lineman, just like he was back

2:17

in the day. Oh, yeah, back in

2:19

the day when I was a little

2:21

bit wider around and. Yeah. I mean,

2:23

I don't know how you're still doing

2:25

all this draft content or you have

2:27

40s and free agents and now you're

2:29

over here talking, I mean, you're just

2:31

pumping it out. No, this is a

2:33

week where it felt like we've been

2:35

talking about, okay, we're gonna like slowly

2:37

keep getting more and more draft content

2:40

and then, you know, with two weeks

2:42

left until the draft where we're at

2:44

now, okay, now we're just going daily

2:46

draft content and look, the offensive line.

2:48

Not the sexiest position on drafting like

2:50

teams like fans are always a little

2:52

disappointed. Oh we drafted a guard. Oh

2:54

we drafted a tackle and then at

2:56

the end of the season everyone's like

2:58

how come our offensive line isn't great

3:00

like how come the Eagles are winning

3:02

the Super Bowl year after year So

3:04

we got to do it and we're

3:06

going to make it fun by giving

3:08

you a bunch of different categories taking

3:10

like kind of the big picture view

3:12

of it. This is believed to be

3:14

quite a deep class especially at Interior

3:16

offensive lineman and the tackle class is

3:19

solid. But like a lot of this

3:21

draft class, it's kind of pick, you

3:23

know, its dealers choice where the very

3:25

top of the class maybe isn't as

3:27

good as other years, but it's very

3:29

deep and solid, you know, picks 10

3:31

through 70. So I'm going to just

3:33

give you some categories. We'll try to

3:35

hit all the relevant first couple around

3:37

guys. as we go and if we

3:39

don't I'll circle back and mention a

3:41

couple but you're the offensive line guy

3:43

I want you to start off with

3:45

the category what we're gonna call like

3:47

the ultimate shook player who is the

3:49

player from this class on the O

3:51

line that's like the ultimate shook guy

3:53

yeah we're years removed from me doing

3:56

behind the offensive line on nfl.com but

3:58

I still am very fond of all

4:00

these guys and one of the guys

4:02

that I'm fond of stuff. is Oregon

4:04

tackle Josh Connorley, who I loved his

4:06

work out. I loved a lot of

4:08

his tape at Oregon. And what I

4:10

see, because the first thing I love

4:12

in offensive limo when I watch them

4:14

in India or when I watch them

4:16

on tape, can they move? Can they

4:18

get out in space? Can they win

4:20

the battle of angles to gain the

4:22

leverage necessary to wall off a guy

4:24

or block him? Not necessarily the road

4:26

graders or the guys that are just

4:28

so physically powerful that they're overwhelmingly impressive,

4:30

but guys that can get in the

4:33

right space. because in football, it's all

4:35

about winning at the point of attack

4:37

and getting there first and creating those

4:39

lanes for running backs. And I think

4:41

that Connerley is this guy. He is

4:44

this guy who's got a developmental side

4:46

to him where he has the footwork,

4:48

he has the footwork, he has the

4:50

athleticism, he moved swiftly through his drills

4:52

in the combine, the tape backs it

4:55

up, and it almost feels like he's

4:57

a guy who is going to put

4:59

on strength at the next level

5:01

and become a complete tackle. basketball

5:04

players at tackle. You want the

5:06

athletes out there. Lane Johnson is

5:08

a great example of that. You

5:10

have the frame and the athleticism,

5:12

you put the weight on, they

5:14

still have that body control, they

5:16

become perennial all pros and future

5:18

hall of famers. Not saying that

5:20

Connolly is going to be that

5:22

guy, but he is the blend

5:24

of athleticism, of fundamentals and technique,

5:26

and you add a little bit

5:28

of strength and stoutness to him,

5:30

and I think he is... 36th in

5:32

the consensus board, which is something that

5:35

just, if you want to check out

5:37

that website, it just averages all the

5:39

big boards all over the place. He's

5:41

38th on Daniel Jeremiah's board, but he

5:43

stands out to me in a way

5:46

because I listened to a great episode

5:48

of Nate Tice's podcast football 301, and

5:50

he had his dad on, Mike Tice,

5:52

who is an offensive line coach forever

5:54

in the NFL. And I love the way

5:56

he sees the position, and it

5:58

was just hilarious. to see a father-in-son.

6:01

And he had Connor Lee as O.L.

6:03

1, by the way, in the class.

6:05

So higher than Will Campbell, higher than

6:07

Armon Membo, like he had him, he

6:09

was a running back, way back in

6:11

the day, Connor Lee. So even if

6:13

he's not like an amazing athlete on

6:15

player, like he knows how to play,

6:17

he played well against Abdul Carter. And

6:19

I like that you're seeing it a

6:22

little differently. I'm just going to be

6:24

real. I'm having you be the expert

6:26

today be the expert today. You be

6:28

the expert today. You be the expert

6:30

today. I'm going to read a lot

6:32

and I'm going to listen to a

6:34

lot and see a lot with the

6:36

offensive line, but I'm not going to

6:38

pretend that I'm like grinding left tackle

6:41

tape. We're trying to give our listeners

6:43

like a good idea of the guys

6:45

that they'll be taking in the draft.

6:47

Let's do it with another category. Let's

6:49

go most likely to be an all-pro

6:51

first. So in theory, this is a

6:53

sneaky way of me asking like who

6:55

would be the best guy. in this

6:57

class at any position. Not who gets

6:59

drafted the highest, but who is the

7:02

most likely to be an all-pro player

7:04

first? This is where teams swing and

7:06

miss a lot is that they go

7:08

for the measurables, they go for a

7:10

good year, they go for a good

7:12

year, guard this year, but they go

7:14

for the Macai-bectans because they test well,

7:16

but they go for the Macai-Bectans because

7:18

they test for massive and they're just

7:21

a freak. This is a guy who's

7:23

been talked about a lot, positively and

7:25

negatively. It's Will Campbell, the tackle from

7:27

LSU. And I'm saying he's most likely

7:29

to be an all-pro-first at guard. And

7:31

this has been the debate with him,

7:33

the length issue. Oftentimes it's like hand-sized,

7:35

maybe you don't see it, maybe it's

7:37

overblown, I see it with him, I

7:39

see it in his tape, but he

7:42

has tremendous feet. He is very experienced

7:44

from his time at LSU, restarted as

7:46

a freshman, but he lacks that length

7:48

that you need to win against guys

7:50

like Miles Garrett, against those powerful long-edge

7:52

rushes that can have incredible bend and

7:54

can simply use their length to create

7:56

the separation where you never get your

7:58

hands on him. If you're lacking... that

8:01

as a tackle, solid tackle, all pro

8:03

guard, that's why he's my pick. Yeah,

8:05

and also this is a class. But

8:07

I think he has the rest of

8:09

the tools in his toolbox to be

8:11

a fantastic guard. Could be an all

8:13

pro guard. I don't know if he

8:15

ends up with a team that moves

8:17

him to that. I think that's his

8:19

long-term future, just because I'm going for

8:22

higher ceiling ceiling as a tackle. Solid

8:24

tackle, all pro guard. That's why he's

8:26

my pick. Yeah. there's not a lot

8:28

of like projected all pros and he's

8:30

eighth on the consensus board and that's

8:32

eighth player overall not not eighth at

8:34

the position ninth on Jeremiah's big board

8:36

so they're in the same spot there

8:38

yeah there's a lot of talk about

8:40

his arm length and you think about

8:43

some of the great guards recently quitten

8:45

Nelson he did play a little left

8:47

tackle but ultimately he was playing really

8:49

well for the Cowboys played some at

8:51

tackle. And all these guys can do

8:53

it, but they can be even better.

8:55

And when you listen to Campbell, in

8:57

terms of the makeup, the reps, I

8:59

mean, this guy has just played a

9:02

ton of big time football. There's a

9:04

lot to like. And the thing that

9:06

gets me the most about him in

9:08

terms of guard tackle, all the stuff,

9:10

because a lot of these guys could

9:12

be guards or tackles. Look at what

9:14

the guards are making right now in

9:16

the NFL. Like Aaron Banks, a pretty

9:18

generic. Guard from the 49ers just got

9:20

77 million over four years. So I'm

9:23

listening to what Jeremiah has said on

9:25

our show 40s and free agents and

9:27

like this is a draft maybe throw

9:29

away the positional value thing because like

9:31

just pick who you think is going

9:33

to be a good player. Don't worry

9:35

if it's guard or tackle and guards

9:37

are basically making money that cornerbacks are

9:39

making like number one cornerbacks like they're

9:41

making a little less than tackles but

9:44

they're still making a ton of money.

9:46

And I think about what does he

9:48

win with that Will Campbell specifically he

9:50

wins with his feet because he doesn't

9:52

have that length he wins with his

9:54

feet in his positioning. And I think

9:56

that can translate phenomenally well at guard.

9:58

Let's think about the NFC divisional round

10:00

in which. The Eagles play the Rams

10:02

and they're getting beat by stunts in

10:04

the entire second half by Vig Fangio's

10:06

defense, right? He's a guy who has

10:08

the feet to be able to adjust

10:10

to that, to be able to become

10:13

a brick wall that you can count

10:15

on in those situations, win with angles,

10:17

win with leverage. I don't care if

10:19

he's not that long when you're playing

10:21

guard. And then you also have the

10:23

ability to get to second level and

10:25

really explode, you know, open up that

10:27

run game. I just think it's going

10:29

to be a higher ceiling for him.

10:31

And again, best player, like you're going

10:33

to build out your best five. I

10:35

don't care if he's playing left. I

10:37

don't care if he's playing left tackle

10:39

or not. I know it's the blind

10:41

side protection and everything. I mean, they

10:44

dominate that game in a number of

10:46

ways, but that was one of them

10:48

in the Chiefs as well. Like really,

10:50

every game they played, the guard position

10:52

on the opposite team was a major

10:54

problem. All right, let's go to a

10:56

different category. Let's talk interior alignment. So

10:58

this is where it really gets into

11:00

the nitty gritty. Were you a tackle

11:02

or a guard? You're probably a tackle.

11:04

I was a garden high school because

11:06

I played next to a six, seven,

11:08

like D1 recruit, and then college smaller

11:10

school was a tackle was a tackle.

11:12

Yeah, you seem like more of like

11:15

a dancing bear athletic type of guy.

11:17

But you know, breaking down the interior

11:19

offensive line tape. Look, when they're like

11:21

running on the sweeps and stuff, that's

11:23

fun and the center getting out and

11:25

pulling like that's fun. But ultimately, I

11:27

think for the average fan, they're not

11:29

just grinding that tape and thinking this

11:31

is fun to watch. Give me an

11:33

interior alignment that is fun to watch.

11:35

Oh, that means they wouldn't enjoy my

11:37

last day at the combine every year

11:39

when you're watching guys with long poles,

11:41

just getting excited about foot quickness. My

11:44

favorite interior offensive lineman to watch on

11:46

tape, this is a throwback, this is

11:48

a classic, this is the highlights that

11:50

you're going to see on your social

11:52

media platforms because he's a bruiser, he's

11:54

a maucher, he's a classic, this is

11:56

the highlights that you're going to see

11:58

on your social media platforms, results with

12:00

the tape. Big fan of him. But why

12:02

I love him the most, oh my God,

12:05

Greg, if you like pancakes and you like

12:07

guys who are like Velcro with their hands

12:09

when they latch on and engage, they don't

12:11

let go. Tyler Booker is your guy. He

12:14

is consistently knocking guys off balance or planting

12:16

them into the ground. He engages and does

12:18

not let go. Once his hands are on

12:20

you, you're cooked. You're gonna be with him

12:23

for the rest of the plays and just

12:25

hold on for the. Gezer's getting launched by

12:27

him, like I'm just laughing watching his tape

12:29

because he just gets in there. Sometimes he'll

12:32

finish guys off on double teams just for

12:34

the fun of it, it looks like. There's

12:36

one clip in particular I saw where he's

12:39

in past pro, and it's like a three

12:41

man rush, and there's a guy kind of

12:43

just floating, you know, maybe playing a little

12:45

bit of quarterback on Jaylonoro, and at the

12:48

last second he just steps up and launches

12:50

him to the second level. When you get

12:52

into him in past pro, it becomes a

12:55

stalemate, which is what you want, especially

12:57

on those longer dropbacks, that they're not gaining

12:59

depth that you're holding that wall. And all

13:01

I advise to guys who play against him,

13:03

don't get caught on his train tracks, because you're

13:05

gonna get run over. He's got great engagement, great

13:08

drive, great power, and those hands are really strong.

13:10

He wins hand fights all the time. There was

13:12

another clip where they're playing Vanderbilt and he knocks

13:14

the guys hands down, the guy just falls face

13:16

first, face first in the ground. My classic

13:19

throwback big interior offensive

13:21

lineman who's out to

13:23

approval point and finish

13:25

every play with emphasis, it's

13:27

Tyler Booker. Love that. And he

13:29

is 27th on the consensus

13:31

board. He is 23rd on DJ's board.

13:33

And so he's probably going

13:36

to get taken into a good

13:38

situation by a good team as a piece

13:40

for a team that just needs

13:42

some improvement to get them

13:44

further in the playoffs. It

13:46

could be. It could be like the chargers. It

13:48

could be I think the lions planning for the future

13:50

if you fell all the way down to them. We're

13:53

going to talk about these teams by the way I

13:55

should have mentioned at the top in our over under

13:57

segment. The over unders have been out for a minute

13:59

and we we just have some things that

14:01

make us say hmm about those and

14:03

just some categories some thoughts to wrap

14:06

the show but I love all that

14:08

on on Tyler Booker he's a guy

14:10

you know some people think maybe he's

14:12

gonna be better in like a gap

14:14

power type of scheme I can see

14:16

that he's versatile enough right I was

14:18

gonna say more than his own but

14:20

like isn't every team both at this

14:23

point I mean every every team has

14:25

to do a little bit of a

14:27

ball I do worry about this type

14:29

of guy The first thing you hear about

14:31

him is he just likes to put

14:33

the guys in the dirt. I don't

14:35

know. Sometimes those guys turn into Trevor

14:38

Penning and we'll see, we'll see. Let's

14:40

go, let's go boomer, but I don't

14:42

know. If you just lead with that,

14:44

like, I need more. Then again, some

14:46

of those, some of those guys turn

14:49

into Quinn Miners who's been. They're fun

14:51

to watch. one of the best third

14:53

round picks of the last like five

14:55

years, maybe one of the best guards

14:57

in the entire NFL. So you never

14:59

know. All right, let's go with boomer

15:01

bus. So it doesn't mean you're you're

15:03

necessarily down on the player, but you just

15:06

don't know. And I do think offensive lineman

15:08

because they get drafted so high the last

15:10

few years like lineman tackles especially just keep

15:12

getting pushed up and up and up and

15:14

some really do. It's got a higher bust

15:16

rate I think than most positions. But a

15:18

player that you think has potential, but you're

15:20

not sure if it's going to work. Yeah,

15:22

and I also think about, there was a

15:24

period for about 10 years where colleges were

15:26

just having guys slide protect and they didn't

15:28

learn the basic fundamentals that you needed at

15:30

the next level to really thrive especially quickly.

15:32

And we know the pages in this league

15:34

is running thinner and thinner at multiple positions,

15:36

not just quarterback, but we just talked about

15:38

fit, right? I'm going with tackle Kelvin banks from

15:41

Texas. And the reason is, you said,

15:43

well, is he, you know, a gap

15:45

scheme guy or can he, you know,

15:47

thrive and zone? Everybody's a little bit

15:49

of both. He's listed at 6.5. 315, but

15:51

he, when you watch him move, because he's

15:53

got so much of that weight in his

15:55

trunk in his lower body, the posterior chain,

15:57

as some people might refer to it as.

15:59

It looks a little slower and he's very

16:02

stout. That's good for him because he's very

16:04

stout. But when he gets out in space,

16:06

you see the desire to get there. It's

16:08

just not as quick as some of the

16:10

other guys and as a fan of those

16:13

who are very good at moving, it makes

16:15

me a little bit concerned. He's a force

16:17

of an offensive lineman. He's very, he moves

16:19

as if he's heavy, but it's not too

16:22

slow. The strike when he engages and the

16:24

upper body strength wins emphatically. bit of a

16:26

linger in the run game. I think a

16:28

lot of that is because he's not quite

16:30

there on time, but he's got great eyes

16:33

to get to the second level. He's just

16:35

not super quick. So I actually had a

16:37

list listed in my notes as a man

16:39

or a gap scheme guy as opposed to

16:42

a zone guy and you have to do

16:44

a little bit of both, but it's fit.

16:46

If you're a zone-dependent team, probably not going

16:48

to get the best results out of him.

16:50

If you're something that's a little bit of

16:53

both or more of a gap scheme, then

16:55

you're probably going to have a better fit

16:57

for him as well. So that's why I

16:59

say boom or bust. He's a guy that's

17:02

been mentioned among some of the top tackles.

17:04

And so we'll see if teams have the

17:06

same kind of read on him and if

17:08

they're willing to take a risk, if they're

17:10

not quite the same fit or not. A

17:13

lot of people who I trust seem to

17:15

see him like you do, maybe like Jeremiah

17:17

does in terms of baking in that they're

17:19

just not sure that he's the type of

17:21

guy that gets drafted high. He could be

17:24

a right tackle, he could be a guard

17:26

potentially, but a little bit of a boomer

17:28

bus guy, I get it. Back in the

17:30

day, the very cliche scouting term that would

17:33

be in those Bob McGin write-ups, which... I

17:35

still read them and yet they're increasingly problematic.

17:37

They would use the phrase like, looks like

17:39

Tarzan plays like Jane. That was the, that

17:41

was like the classic terrible scouting term. Yeah,

17:44

oily hips, bubble butt. Yeah. Let's just go

17:46

with like, who's the best athlete? I'm just

17:48

curious, you think is like the premier athlete

17:50

of guys that we haven't mentioned or just

17:53

overall. Armand Membo crushed the combine. He put

17:55

together a phenomenal testing performance and a lot

17:57

of the tape. From Missouri. Yes, from Missouri,

17:59

the tackle, fits. what you saw in the

18:01

testing he's really light on his feet and

18:04

the good thing that I really enjoyed about

18:06

him is he improved over time like you

18:08

can see a little bit earlier in his

18:10

career in Missouri he's playing right tackle hands

18:12

up moving to left tackle it looks like

18:15

he's more comfortable at left tackle and you

18:17

can tell that he just got better year

18:19

by year he became more consistent he keeps

18:21

a really good base when he moves laterally

18:24

he's another guy who's addicted to finishing blocks

18:26

but he'll like take it almost past the

18:28

whistle sometimes. He does not bite in his

18:30

past sets. He's willing to mirror, let you

18:32

come to him and then deal with his

18:35

violence. And like I said, he had a

18:37

great combine. He's got experience on both sides

18:39

of the line. And as somebody who improved

18:41

from both sides of the line and as

18:44

somebody who improved from year to year in

18:46

college that makes me very excited given his

18:48

physical gifts, what he can do at the

18:50

next level in the NFL. So I think

18:52

he's one of those first two tacklesles coming

18:55

off of the field winter. It's funny how

18:57

consensus forms because before I had on Nate

18:59

Tice yesterday I went back and I listened

19:01

actually to like an early show we did

19:03

before the senior was a first show I

19:06

did talking about the draft and back then

19:08

Membo was there and he was viewed as

19:10

like a late first round type of guy.

19:12

Could he be the second tackle off the

19:15

board and then fast forward six weeks? And

19:17

he's seventh on the consensus board overall, the

19:19

number one offensive lineman, just barely ahead of

19:21

Will Campbell. So they're right there. He's second

19:23

among offensive lineman on DJ's big board. He's

19:26

11th overall. And so through the process and

19:28

might just be talking to how NFL teams

19:30

see them, people have realized like, oh, this

19:32

guy is a great prospect. Maybe in previous

19:35

classes, he wouldn't be quite as high. because

19:37

there's been better tackle classes at the very

19:39

top, but in the end, he's the most

19:41

athletic guy in this class. And so it's

19:43

kind of like quarterback, even if he was

19:46

maybe a prospect. some years

19:48

that he'd be around

19:50

2018. It's like he's

19:52

gonna get pushed up

19:55

because he plays a

19:57

position. He's also very

19:59

young. He's 21 years

20:01

older. He's just turning

20:03

21. So as a

20:06

prospect, he's young. I

20:08

really think he could

20:10

go to the Jets

20:12

at seven because they really need a

20:14

right. Shanno has bookends. Ooh, I like

20:17

that. Yeah, they really need a

20:19

right tackle. It's one of the only

20:21

like screaming needs on their team.

20:23

And then suddenly they have a really

20:25

nice offensive line. You build them

20:27

like the Lions built their offensive line.

20:29

Back when Aaron Glenn was there.

20:31

All right, let's do one more category.

20:33

Let's do a shucky hidden gem.

20:36

Okay. So this is a guy

20:38

who first landed on my radar at the combine

20:40

because the way he moved. Like I said, I'm

20:42

gonna sound like a broken record. Love guys who

20:44

move well. There are just certain years, whether they're

20:46

at the top of the class or they end

20:48

up in the second or third round where you

20:50

just watch them on the field and you're like,

20:52

that guy's different. Cam Juergens was one of them

20:54

a few years ago. Tristan Worfs. I liked Tanner

20:56

Bartolini who is kind of rising up into prominence

20:58

now as well. Usually they're interior guys that show

21:00

off a little bit more swiftness. And again, we're

21:02

gonna go with a guard. We're gonna go with

21:04

Joshua Gray from Oregon State. This is a guy who

21:06

is so much not on people's radars that like

21:08

if you go quickly YouTube search for a second, like

21:10

just to find some quick cutups or whatever, his

21:13

name doesn't pop up. There's nothing out there. But I'm

21:15

telling you right now that when you dive deeper

21:17

into it, he just, he

21:20

shows it. He shows it on the

21:22

tape. He had a school record

21:24

56 career starts at Oregon State. And

21:26

the reason I like him is

21:28

because he's got the athleticism and power

21:30

and yet he's malleable. Like you

21:32

have the baseline athleticism to be able

21:34

to get out in space and move. You

21:37

have demonstrated power. Like Lance's right up

21:39

above him was tough, strong, reliable. Those are

21:41

all qualities that I want in an

21:43

offensive lineman, especially in a guard. And he's

21:45

versatile. He mostly played tackle in college,

21:47

but he has the athleticism with Robin Garber.

21:49

He also ended up playing at Oregon

21:51

State. So if strength is considered one

21:53

of his strengths and he can move,

21:56

I love the projection for you, the

21:58

upside for you, given that you land. with

22:00

the right team that doesn't ask you

22:02

to do too much. So it won't

22:04

be a first round pick, but it's

22:06

going to be a guy that I'm

22:08

going to pay a lot of attention

22:10

to because I think his upside

22:12

is very much being slept on

22:14

right now. Consensus Board 153

22:17

for Joshua Gray. All right, Chuck,

22:19

he's playing his flag. We're going

22:21

to be tracking now Joshua Gray's

22:23

career extremely closely, and Shook's

22:25

name is now going to

22:27

be attached to his draft.

22:29

profile in terms of 153. Maybe

22:32

NFL teams will agree with you though

22:34

and he'll go higher. A couple just

22:36

interesting names I did want to throw

22:38

out before we take a break

22:40

and then talk some over unders.

22:42

Josh Simmons is an interesting prospect

22:44

from Ohio State 25th on the

22:46

consensus board, 35th on Jeremiah's board, he

22:48

tore his Patel attendant, he was the left

22:50

tackle at Ohio State before that injury. Donovan

22:53

Jackson I believe actually moved out to left

22:55

tackle and was a... was okay there, but

22:57

he's gonna be a guard. I might as

23:00

well mention them together here, since you're an

23:02

Ohio State guy. He's around 3839 on the

23:04

consensus board. Wouldn't be surprised if a team

23:06

like the Patriots, one of those teams at

23:09

the top of the second round that needs

23:11

offensive lineman. He just looks like a good

23:13

run block. He has versatility. He's gonna be

23:15

a guard. Donovan Jackson, solid. Whereas Simmons

23:18

might have been a top 10 pick in this draft

23:20

if it wasn't for the injury. For the injury, there's

23:22

also. motivation slash character concerns being

23:24

whispered about him, which you never want

23:26

to hear, but it's probably attached to

23:28

him as much as just about anyone

23:30

in this class. And so I'm just

23:33

curious, you're an Ohio State guy. Someone's

23:35

going to take a chance on him at some

23:37

point, probably in the first round, maybe even

23:39

earlier than people think because of the position, but

23:41

he's got the injury. How do you equate

23:43

all that? Where would he be, you think, by

23:45

the way, if he wasn't hurt? He would

23:47

be where he was prior and I think that

23:50

which is what it's top 10 top 15

23:52

you had him in the top 15 right at

23:54

least on the big boards right so analyzing

23:56

this the entire story of the 2024

23:58

Ohio State team of people overlooked the changes

24:01

that they had at offensive line. They had injuries

24:03

from like the midpoint of the season onward. It

24:05

was on the interior, it was a tackle, and

24:07

they just had to shuffle guys around and keep

24:09

shuffling around. That's why Donovan Jackson actually, he improved.

24:11

His first game in tackle was not good, but

24:13

by the end of their run, he was playing

24:16

pretty well. Because they were just rolling with the

24:18

punches. And I think that so when you analyze

24:20

a guy like Simmons, you have a smaller sample

24:22

size from the most recent tape. And it. kind

24:24

of complicates the picture for you. And you also

24:26

have to question how does he come back from

24:28

that injury, because that's no small injury. I think

24:31

about Senator Charles Bentley, who tore both of his

24:33

particular tenants in the first day of training, came

24:35

to the Browns, it essentially ended his career. So

24:37

offensive line, the needs are important. The first day

24:39

of training came, but the Browns had essentially ended

24:41

his career. So offensive line, the knees are important.

24:43

The needs are important. It's essentially ended his He's

24:46

kind of the ultimate boomer bus too, just because

24:48

of the injury and maybe because of the off-field

24:50

stuff, but definitely talented there. I think we hit

24:52

really the tackles that are probably going in the

24:54

top 50. Another couple interior guys, Gray Zables, if

24:56

people want to go back and listen to the

24:58

scouting combine when we did, you really liked him

25:00

there. He's 24th on DJ's big board, very athletic,

25:03

can kind of follow the model of a few

25:05

good recent... centers where he played tackle in college,

25:07

but I think the league kind of sees him

25:09

as a center. I love a guy that's that

25:11

that versatile. So he's another interesting one that might

25:13

go off in the first round and he's from

25:15

North Dakota State. You got to love it. The

25:18

program is important because oftentimes you take your best

25:20

lineman and put him at left tackle when you're

25:22

playing especially at the FCS level. But yeah, I

25:24

think he projects to be a solid center. Yeah,

25:26

and some good recent rookie centers. Why am I

25:28

blanking? Zach Frazier, obviously. And then Grand Barton, a

25:30

similar profile guy who played all over the place

25:33

in college, but then they moved him to center

25:35

with the Bucks. All right, that's our offensive line

25:37

preview. We're going to be going through the positions

25:39

as we get closer and closer to the draft.

25:41

I always. thank Shook for

25:43

his expertise there, but I'm

25:45

not letting him off

25:48

the hook. He is going

25:50

to be back after

25:52

the break. We're just going

25:54

to look at over -unders

25:56

for the first time.

25:58

I guess I have a

26:00

sickness and I can't

26:03

really quench that sickness because

26:05

I work for the

26:07

NFL. So what I'm going

26:09

to do is just

26:11

talk about these over -unders.

26:13

I find them interesting right

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NFL Daily. And yeah, when I said

28:53

before the break I had a sickness,

28:55

what I mean is. I find this

28:58

stuff interesting, even though we're not allowed

29:00

to act on it. I'm thankful for

29:02

that. It's saved me a lot of

29:04

stress over the years. But when you

29:06

see the over-unders for the year, it's

29:08

one of my favorite shows we do

29:10

before every season, is we do a

29:13

draft of what are our favorite over-unders.

29:15

And that might be one of my

29:17

favorite shows of the year, because I'm

29:19

undefeated three years running, and I'm going

29:22

to keep bringing that up. where I haven't

29:24

had one wrong in three years. And last year

29:26

it was outrageous, because I made a long list,

29:28

and the long list over unders were amazed. We're

29:30

only picking three or four. I think it's a

29:33

total of 11 and no shook, but it's four

29:35

for, I'm 11 for 11. I'm 11. No, I

29:37

was not doing every team. What is that

29:39

96 over in oh over three years?

29:41

That's like that's like 11 for 11's

29:43

pretty good 11's pretty good So I

29:45

will say this I got to say

29:47

this though on my other podcast gridiron

29:50

podcast which you can find on youtube.com/at

29:52

gridiron pod We do division by division

29:54

season preview during training camp. Yeah, and

29:56

we always do over unders as well. And

29:58

now you're gonna make me go back in

30:00

tally whether me and my co-hosts were correct,

30:02

how close we were on those. We might

30:04

have to do that this year because I

30:07

like having to take on almost all of

30:09

them and last year was particularly good. Okay,

30:11

so they came out. I first heard this

30:13

on Bill Simmons's podcast. I had no idea

30:15

that that over unders would come out so

30:18

early before the draft it seems crazy. And

30:20

the reason I find it interesting for

30:22

myself is not the gambling aspect

30:24

of it. More just... What is consensus

30:26

going to be heading into this

30:28

season? We're starting to now. I

30:30

hadn't really thought about it yet.

30:32

What are the season previews going

30:35

to be? What does Vegas think

30:37

fans will see as like the most

30:39

common wisdom and view of these teams?

30:41

And so we're going to do this

30:43

a few different ways. You have categories.

30:46

I have one category and my categories

30:48

is going to be things that make

30:50

me go hmm. And the first thing that

30:52

made me go hmm was looking at the

30:55

AFC East. And if you look at

30:57

the AFC East, the jets have a projected

30:59

wind total for a five and

31:01

a half. And the patriots have

31:03

a projected wind total now of eight

31:05

and a half. I think that's been

31:07

bet up. I actually think it was

31:10

at seven and a half, because I

31:12

listened to Simmons a few weeks ago,

31:14

and it was at seven, it's up

31:16

to eight half. And that to me

31:18

is insane. Why are the patriots? three

31:20

wins better than the Jets. So on

31:22

going in both directions, I think that's

31:24

a little bit crazy that the Patriots

31:27

would be up at eight and a half

31:29

same as the Dolphins, and that the Jets,

31:31

like, I don't think the Jets roster is

31:33

that bad. I don't think they got worse

31:35

at quarterback. And I know they only won

31:37

five games last year, and so that's why

31:40

it's there. But man, them being three games

31:42

apart, just. Stuck me as huh that doesn't

31:44

really make any sense. Yeah and rightfully so

31:46

I I started taking notes and the first

31:48

all caps note I took was Patriots 8.8

31:50

and a half with just question mark exclamation

31:53

mark just a line of them because it

31:55

seems insane and then at that point I

31:57

realized I needed three categories I needed getable

31:59

gonna be tough and on what planet and

32:01

this lands in on what planet are the

32:04

Patriots listed at eight and a half games

32:06

you know for the over under and it

32:08

all comes back to what you've been honking

32:10

about for months Greg which is quarterback Drake

32:13

May and the fact that they had an

32:15

off season to inject some talent on both

32:17

sides of the ball support him better on

32:19

the offensive line put some you know additional

32:22

pieces around him he's got Stefan digs there

32:24

now coming back from the ACL and people

32:26

are setting and they think he's gonna do

32:28

it in New England, but do I buy

32:31

in? Instantly? No, I need that proven to

32:33

me. So again, on what planet are they

32:35

gonna win over eight and a half games

32:37

in 2025? Well, okay, schedule is a huge

32:40

part of it, and we're gonna get deeper

32:42

into this when we get closer to the

32:44

season, so I don't wanna go too crazy

32:46

today. These are just first impressions. Schedule's a

32:49

huge part of it. And they do have

32:51

the NFC South on the schedule, and so

32:53

that's going to help out the whole AFCs.

32:55

The AFCs also has each other, like the

32:58

Dolphins and the Jets aren't like amazing opponents.

33:00

It's not the worst division to play against.

33:02

And then they play the AFC North, which

33:04

is not as easy, but that just seemed

33:07

weird to me. The Patriots have won eight

33:09

games combined over the last two years. That's

33:11

just a big bump. It's just a big

33:13

bump. But what are you thinking? Jet's over

33:16

five and a half. That would be like

33:18

a what are you thinking for me? I

33:20

think they're better than that. Along those lines,

33:22

I'm gonna go, I'm gonna try to guess

33:24

like who was in your categories and maybe

33:27

we're thinking it of just like can you

33:29

get to that win total because this is

33:31

more a win total that seems very low

33:33

to me. The Vikings eight and a half

33:36

seems crazy to me. That's so low. They

33:38

really think the the public is gonna be

33:40

that low. on the Minnesota Vikings, they got

33:42

the same over under wind total as the

33:45

bears. And I don't hate the bears, but

33:47

the bears are eight and a half. They're

33:49

suddenly the same as the Vikings? I don't

33:51

get. I'd like to introduce you to member

33:54

number two of on what planet? The Vikings

33:56

at eight and a half. This is a

33:58

big projection on the quarterback play not being

34:00

there. I understand there was some fraudulence with

34:03

this Vikings team a few years ago

34:05

when they ended up losing a Daniel

34:07

Jones in the playoffs. And then, you

34:09

know, they tail spin at the end

34:11

of last year, but that was a

34:13

product of playing a good defense and

34:16

a defense that Sam Darnle couldn't,

34:18

you know, sort out, you know, sort out

34:20

of, you know, sort out of, you know,

34:22

sort out. And yeah, it is a big

34:24

swing to just a team's gonna win nine

34:26

or 10 games with a second year. On

34:28

what planet do they not win nine

34:30

games this year? I'm sorry, I

34:32

just have a hard time believing

34:35

that. These two teams were nine

34:37

games apart last year. The Vikings

34:39

won 14, the Bears won five.

34:41

Now the schedule for the NFC

34:43

North is very difficult for everyone

34:45

because they're playing against each other

34:47

and the out of division schedule

34:49

is difficult. So that's that's gonna

34:51

depress all the numbers. But man.

34:53

I'm not ready. I don't want to

34:56

be making predictions. This is not what

34:58

this show is about. It's just numbers

35:00

that really stuck out to me

35:02

because ultimately I don't think the quarterback

35:05

play for the Vikings is going to

35:07

be that high of a bar overall

35:09

to reach in the ecosystem that they

35:11

have. And the rest of the team

35:13

is really, really good. All right, give

35:15

me on what planet. Give me another

35:17

one of you on what planets. The

35:19

last of three on what planet members

35:21

is the Niners at 10 and 10

35:23

and a half. Yes. Look, I understand they

35:25

were beaten up by injuries severely

35:27

last year. They've also had an

35:30

off-season in which you don't feel

35:32

better about the state of the

35:34

roster than you did a year

35:36

prior. It's a bit of a transition

35:38

time for them. They also have the

35:41

Brock Purdy contract thing going on, you

35:43

know, and for a bit there, you

35:45

can, a year prior. It's a bit

35:47

of a transition time for them. They

35:49

also have the Brock Purdy contract thing

35:51

going on such a year. continuity and they've

35:54

done it before and they tend to be

35:56

like a roller coaster from year to year

35:58

especially when injuries get involved. But that's just

36:00

a really high bar to set for

36:03

a team that fell short of expectations,

36:05

obviously with injuries being a big part.

36:07

And then coming back from an off

36:09

season in which, you know, they had

36:11

some pieces leave. Yeah, I think the

36:14

10.5 is a little crazy, but it's

36:16

even more crazy that the Rams don't

36:18

have it. So for some context, the

36:20

NFC West plays both South Division. They

36:22

drew the best draw. of any division

36:24

in the NFL this year. So they

36:27

get the the NFSI South and the

36:29

AFSI South. I think that's the ideal

36:31

out of division schedule. So that helps

36:33

push up all these teams. And in

36:35

fact, the entire NFSI West is eight

36:38

and a half or over. The cardals

36:40

in the Seahawks are both eight and

36:42

a half and the Rams are at

36:44

nine and a half. If you had

36:46

just knocked the the 49ers down one

36:48

or flipped them in the Rams, then

36:51

I get it. a begging here of

36:53

Vegas almost to pick against the 49ers

36:55

when I'm sure the systems like that

36:57

Cynthia has, look at the talent on

36:59

the team, look at the previous success

37:02

and project that out forward that actually

37:04

they're not going to collapse as much

37:06

as teams. And I can understand that.

37:08

It just is really weird to me

37:10

that they would be behind the Rams.

37:12

And yeah, not every team is going

37:15

to be over 500 in the division.

37:17

So either the Seahawks or the Cardinals

37:19

are going to be. Coming up short

37:21

or maybe the Rams and or the

37:23

49ers as well. Okay. So those were

37:26

those were your crazy ones Those were

37:28

the ones to me that also stood

37:30

out the most basically the jets the

37:32

Vikings and then the Rams 49ers split

37:34

just other ones I just found interesting

37:36

The bucks are at nine and a

37:39

half I like the bucks They have

37:41

the AFC East and the NSC West

37:43

out of division, which is not the

37:45

toughest slate. I don't think and they

37:47

have, you know, of course, six games

37:50

in the division. They're favored to win

37:52

the division by two games. The Falcons

37:54

are next at seven and a half,

37:56

Carolina six and a half, Saints at

37:58

six and a half. That's one I

38:00

can give a preview. I'm definitely going to

38:03

be over on the bucks. Now is that

38:05

going to be one of my top three

38:07

or four in the NFL? I don't really

38:09

know. But with that schedule and that division,

38:11

to me, that's just one that I look

38:13

at right away. I actually felt like that

38:15

was probably a game too high. And the

38:18

reason is not that I don't have confidence

38:20

in this team because I do. We've seen

38:22

that they became an offensive team

38:24

last year. Baker Mayfield's played his

38:26

best football was career in the

38:28

last two years with them. They

38:30

have two talented receivers. In Mike

38:32

Evans and Chris Godwin and Jaylyn

38:34

McMillan really stepped up in Godwin's

38:36

absence last year. And Bucky Irving had

38:39

a great rookie year. But if you look

38:41

at them over the last three years, they've

38:43

won 10 games, nine games and eight games.

38:45

And they've won the division each of those

38:47

three years, but none of them were easy.

38:49

And oft of them were easy. more comfortable

38:51

in terms of like realistic expectation at

38:53

eight and a half than nine and

38:55

a half which is why I just

38:57

kind of raised an eyebrow at that one.

39:00

Yeah that one is that that's why

39:02

I wasn't in my top section. The

39:04

top section are ones where the number

39:06

itself seems crazy to me this number

39:08

doesn't seem crazy but I'm high on

39:10

the bucks as a team that I

39:12

believe has is now at a certain

39:14

point in their cycle. of team building

39:16

that they're ready to go and that

39:18

they're going to be a really good

39:20

team this year. Other ones that stuck

39:22

out to be, the Steelers are eight

39:24

and a half, which is like the

39:26

classic, we don't know what to do

39:28

with this team number, which is eight

39:30

and a half. The charger's still, you

39:32

know, getting a lot of love

39:34

along with the Broncos at nine

39:36

and a half, both of those

39:38

teams, and it's partly because A, the

39:40

good teams all play each other because

39:43

of the first place schedules and that

39:45

even can affect that extra game, that

39:47

17th game. And then B, like the

39:49

divisional schedules this year, I think the

39:51

better teams are all with tough division

39:54

games and out of division games. There

39:56

just happen to be playing each other.

39:58

But of all those teams. that aren't

40:00

going above 11 a half. To me, the

40:02

chief's not getting more than 11 a half

40:04

is the craziest because they're the team of

40:07

them that out of division, they have the

40:09

AFC South and the NFC East, that's not

40:11

too tough. And then in the division, you

40:13

know, it's a good division, but you still

40:15

have the Raiders there, it's not like the

40:18

best division in the world. Out of division,

40:20

it's a pretty nice schedule. So the chief's

40:22

always, always, always disrespectedrespected respected at 11 and

40:24

a half. Yeah, this is a franchise whose

40:26

fan base doesn't need any more reason to

40:29

think that they're being disrespected. Let's put that

40:31

out there first and foremost. But I also

40:33

understand why it's 11 and a half. I

40:35

would understand if it was 12 and a

40:37

half, given their history of success. Like historic,

40:40

would have been if they'd won the half,

40:42

given their history of success. Like historic, would

40:44

have been if they'd won the Super Bowl

40:46

and it still, you know, at least what

40:48

they've done on offensive line. And it. Yeah,

40:51

sure. A little bit of disrespect. We still

40:53

have the whole draft to go through. I

40:55

get it. Just here are the win totals

40:57

since 2018. 12, 12, 14, 12, 14, 11

40:59

and 15. And even the 11 got there

41:02

over that year. I remember it was 10

41:04

and a half because I took it. 12

41:06

is 14. Right. But again, you're just fans,

41:08

but you're not being disrespected because. You literally

41:10

are tied for the best record in the

41:13

NFL according to the Oddsmakers right now. Bill

41:15

were only at 11 and a half. The

41:17

Eagles were only at 11 and a half.

41:19

The Lions were only at 10 and a

41:21

half. That's an interesting one to me. I

41:24

think I would I would lean towards the

41:26

the over with the Lions, but it is

41:28

a very difficult schedule. It's early. I just

41:30

just some first thoughts. More in the space

41:32

to come. You got one more? One more

41:35

in the gonna be tough category. Bears eight

41:37

and a half. Just because. It's projection. Ben

41:39

Johnson, high hopes for him. High hopes for

41:41

what the bears can be. They got their

41:43

quarterback. Everything's cool. It's a lot of projection.

41:46

to expect them to

41:48

win nine or more

41:50

games off the bat

41:52

without, again, I'm a

41:54

cynic, I'm a skeptic.

41:57

Tough schedule too, yeah.

41:59

Prove it to me

42:01

in a tough division,

42:03

but eight and a

42:05

half I thought that

42:08

was a little high.

42:10

I agree with you, I've gone under

42:12

on the Bears three straight years as

42:15

one of my top three to four

42:17

picks and every time it's been right, this year I

42:19

don't think I will, just cause I want, I

42:21

do want to believe in a world where Caleb and

42:23

Ben Johnson just make beautiful music together and I

42:25

see the vision, I get it, I do think they'll

42:27

be better. The schedule is going to be very

42:29

tough though, so I do think it's going to be,

42:31

it's going to be a challenge in that division. Never

42:34

a challenge when we have you, Shuk,

42:36

appreciate you man, offensive line. Like some

42:39

people would look at that as like,

42:41

I'm giving you the dregs of

42:43

the draft prospects, but you

42:45

look at it like this is the beautiful

42:47

time of year. gotta see me on that

42:49

last day the combine folks. It's been a

42:51

grind of a week and I couldn't be

42:53

happier and more ecstatic than to walk into

42:55

Lucas Oil Stadium on that day specifically and

42:57

sit there for seven hours watching big guys

42:59

and tights run around. This is my

43:01

thing. I'm looking forward to that. I already

43:03

am now, I'm looking forward to the annual show

43:05

that we will do with Nick Shuk after

43:07

the combine it was fun this year, hearing your

43:09

all combine team. That's it for today. Hit

43:11

the music there, Eric. We

43:14

will be back in this

43:16

feed on Thursday. You

43:18

know him, you love him. Daniel

43:20

Jeremiah, 40s and free agents will

43:22

be talking more big picture draft.

43:24

I'm excited about this one and

43:27

yeah, like when we're going deep

43:29

on Tyler Booker and Gray Zable

43:31

and Josh Connerly, you know football

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