The hydrological characteristics of a river, including the magnitude and timing of high and low flows, are important determinants of its ecological functioning. Climate change will alter these characteristics, triggering ecological changes in river ecosystems.Key points:• Nine global hydrological models forced by five global climate models provide discharges for 321 major river basins for 1–3°C mean global warming• An environmental flow method demonstrates increasing risks of ecological change with warming, especially for low flows• Risks of ecological change vary spatially, with regions most at risk including South America, southern Africa and Australia

2021: J. R. Thompson, S. N. Gosling, J. Zaherpour and C. L. R. Laizé

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2021EF002048