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this is kind many from

0:19

n p r,

0:22

the

0:23

car waring professional vibraphonist,

0:25

have you ever been in a vibe session?

0:27

the vibe session i've been in many vibes

0:30

assists no no no no no

0:32

but have you ever been part of a vibe

0:34

says it

0:35

i'm going to go say yes

0:38

maybe we should expect ourselves

0:40

the car because when we say bad

0:42

sessions we are referring

0:44

to this new idea that kind of

0:46

describes our economy right now

0:49

the idea is that the economic

0:51

vibes or off so

0:53

on

0:54

they could actually lead to a recession

0:57

combine the words fides recess

0:59

in five sasser now

1:02

why do you think i like the better for

1:04

the brand's alina of economic

1:06

imo yeah yeah

1:08

and the reason we invited you here today in the car

1:10

is that we love upon and

1:13

you play the vibraphone

1:15

a the vibes he

1:17

just plays little did he say for hahahaha

1:30

that session and jazz was

1:32

i mean

1:32

a session is is some people get together

1:35

and play be recording session he could be a jazz

1:37

as

1:37

where are those see where a guy

1:40

here today we're

1:42

going to look at the state of the economy in three

1:44

different ways to see why people are saying

1:46

it's maybe saying vibe session at

1:49

live vibes sessions

1:52

the car

1:53

you are not the only musician here today

1:55

it's you have brought your band a basis

1:57

and the key player and a sax player

1:59

and we are all right here live

2:02

and up lot of other studios

2:06

who

2:07

it is very excited mccarroll

2:10

what's the band called we are in the current

2:12

presents black wall street or

2:15

read places

2:16

it was intro

2:36

something weird is going on in the

2:38

economy and working to try to get to the bottom

2:41

that amazon mclaren her band are

2:43

gonna help us understand what's happening

2:45

in our economy that no mandate

2:48

how gdp growth and large

2:50

numbers and the housing market

2:52

are are pointing in different directions

2:54

leading to weird vibe

2:56

it's about such a bad know should everyone

2:58

let's do it

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we're back it's planet money were here

3:57

with the car warren provides than

4:00

santa clara say

4:01

the gone or it's own a car a professional

4:03

vibraphone us aka a vibes player

4:06

with as you here today because we're doing

4:08

this show about the said of the economy today it's

4:10

and for that show

4:12

the challenge you to compose

4:14

a song

4:15

the song inspired by three

4:17

different economic indicators that

4:20

put together will hopefully embody

4:22

this weird possibly vibe

4:24

centenary time the were and and

4:26

as as to turn five session mean

4:29

the mere fact the people's feelings

4:31

about the economy or so bad the

4:33

lead to a becoming bad the

4:36

you accept the challenge sure

4:40

that's , energy we wide but

4:42

before we get there let's meet the

4:44

coin or of this term vibe session

4:47

tyler skinless i figure

4:49

like the closest we have

4:52

as a society to like econ

4:55

and finance in flu went use

4:58

dear his do you hate

5:00

that area as area people

5:02

the going the us influencer and i

5:04

really wanting to rip my hero is a godzilla

5:06

oasis where you might know tyler from

5:08

his her videos she puts out

5:11

extraordinary amount of videos about the economy

5:14

and finance their like plenty money by

5:16

a million miles a minute

5:17

the is still planning to shut down to nico a pleasant

5:20

of weird thing is this might have you're buying

5:22

russian gas their child who is the world

5:24

so i just clicked any

5:25

the in between the audio

5:28

it does seem like it's just like jump jump

5:30

jump jump so yeah

5:32

what if that are because you know it

5:34

either have to keep people from scrolling and

5:36

the only way that you're going to do that is there

5:38

the entire essentially melting and are like

5:40

what why this is a lot of

5:44

oh boy

5:47

our says lazy come up with his term five

5:50

says and started one morning not too long

5:52

ago she got a question from famous

5:54

online guy hank green and

5:56

decided to answer it and make one of those mine

5:58

melting videos

5:59

video for hang get answers the question

6:02

or intercession using data from see the i

6:04

the video pointed out that it was hard to tell

6:06

there were lots of mixed signals like growth

6:08

was slowing but weirdly incomes

6:11

were rising so maybe

6:13

we're not in recession

6:14

what it means is that the economy is

6:16

not doing that bad but as a note

6:18

old is highly that word a weird economic cycle

6:20

and posted the video went to the gym

6:22

and oh boy when she came home

6:25

the commenters did not like this

6:27

video and other similar videos

6:29

that pilot posted and all these people were

6:31

like you're so wrong like it is so bad

6:33

out there there's like why do they feel so

6:35

bad when things are relatively

6:38

okay ish on and

6:40

that sort of like the whole thing as a panda fives

6:42

there's all tyler when in

6:44

less than it wasn't it wasn't commenters people

6:46

in general we're feeling like things were off

6:49

and see coins this term about that

6:51

five percent and as she does

6:54

put out a video him and made in his fellow

6:56

of them to generate open separate in the crimea

6:58

months at a things they were

7:00

going to be taking that divides us and us and

7:02

are your feelings and emotions of in

7:04

in the videos he says that while many economic indicators

7:07

are pointing and good directions a

7:09

lot of the data about feelings

7:12

we're going in the exact opposite direction

7:14

the you have a favorite

7:18

indicator of you know consumer

7:20

household sentiment ah

7:23

i mean interest mean interest is guy is ah

7:25

yes the university of michigan

7:28

index of consumer sentiment

7:30

the blue

7:31

every month researchers from you mess call

7:33

ups six hundred people and ask a bunch

7:35

of subjective questions questions about

7:38

feelings

7:38

like are you financially better or

7:41

worse off than a year ago his next year gonna

7:43

be good times are bad times is now

7:45

the time to buy a fridge or silver a washing machine

7:47

they take the answers had them up to a little

7:49

division and come to a number the

7:51

index of consumer sentence

7:54

lately it has been

7:56

a wild ride for

7:58

this index according to the survey consumer that

8:00

i'm it just cratered in the last few years

8:02

in june it was the lowest in recorded

8:05

history or at the car

8:06

here it is the first musical talents

8:08

for you and your band have right here

8:10

in my hands

8:13

a part of the last ten years

8:15

of consumer sentiment from that michigan survey

8:18

sites don't really work on the radio

8:20

so we're gonna have you help us described

8:22

this chart

8:23

okay

8:24

it looks like it's

8:26

a pie it's move in it's it's

8:28

up there and insists a big drop

8:31

downs with with for i'm looking at

8:32

i am now discredits hard to me

8:35

musically on your but see

8:48

oh that was exactly how

8:50

the turret months and ,

8:52

a car when you on the road and your

8:54

up on stage or between songs you work

8:56

in the crowd you're like hey how's everyone feeling to

8:58

nice a people yelling back like

9:00

have you seen the price of gas and

9:03

why is everything sounds as if

9:05

the economy saw it i mean what are people

9:07

saying i mean i'll

9:09

say this i'd definitely always have to ask

9:12

our ruin his do

9:12

more than once there's a little bit allow

9:15

the first time

9:17

but then you know then you'd

9:19

be real i like were to have some fun so

9:22

there must be some sort of ah

9:25

something in the air that is as keep

9:27

it as a little bit down

9:29

the ring true for the band at yeah the economic

9:31

hecklers no no

9:33

no economic hecklers other

9:36

, tomatoes dog

9:42

tomatoes are expensive after night as an outlet

9:45

for an while but even at the surface

9:48

and luck

9:50

many economists don't think that falling

9:52

consumer sentiment hides

9:54

are driving the slowdowns there a ton

9:56

of other things to drive the business cycle

9:59

borrowing rates liquidity and supply

10:01

chain snarls and pilot says

10:03

yeah but also feelings consumer

10:06

sentiment there a big deal

10:08

i think you wrote in your peace and this was amazing

10:10

to me seventy

10:13

percent of our economy is consumer spent

10:15

and because it is so hippy

10:17

dippy and it's satellite always

10:19

on my feelings a lot of people on talk about it

10:22

does he want to be taken seriously and if you're you're being

10:24

laugh in matters of people see those people

10:26

are gonna be like of set off like you know you're saying

10:28

split in so like i think when

10:31

the reason that that's less and less as sticky

10:33

as as he gets he were like oh like oh wow

10:35

like somebody is as a sort of really going

10:37

after consumer sentiment like really going

10:39

after year the people affected the

10:41

economy he just don't see a lot of or workaround

10:44

does

10:44

i was word vibe session

10:46

he went

10:48

everywhere

10:49

the fm radio so give us to give

10:51

us a how you came to the vibe sessions and

10:53

am radio years a recession of

10:55

vibes did the person saying this

10:57

have a man been divides or ban philippine

11:00

t v coined the term

11:02

vibes session it's

11:04

my job to be cured in editorial

11:07

meetings of assert in economics podcasts

11:10

reporters asked is there was room in the budget

11:12

to hire a vibraphone is

11:14

in their band any yes carla

11:17

had coined the perfect word for the moments

11:19

that this idea of feelings

11:22

leading to downturns bonafide

11:24

macro economists think about this all

11:26

the time including jennifer love

11:29

betty to stop

11:30

columbia university one of the

11:32

reasons i wanted to talk to you is because you have this

11:34

econ paper that says called

11:36

sentiment yes was as i who's

11:38

gonna say like i said i sat economic

11:41

see to me you know right right

11:43

we're very proud of that titles

11:46

jennifer says many

11:47

outlet air a lot about emotions

11:49

they have for a long time way

11:52

before by obsession since like oh

11:54

gee economist

11:55

john maynard keynes

11:56

i do think it's just a rebranding

11:59

for

11:59

they've

12:01

the generation of these

12:04

ideas that have been around for a long time

12:06

i think you're a

12:07

it's just a clever rebranding of

12:10

keynes his theory of animal spirits

12:12

the or it's and most

12:14

sense you know these type

12:16

of things that effect economic

12:19

decision makers decisions i mean we're

12:21

not machines

12:23

we as jennifer to walk us

12:25

through the second ingredient the second

12:27

component that's affecting divides

12:29

or maybe the animal spirits whatever you wanna call it's

12:32

and it's a big one inflation that

12:35

she says the reason it affects divides so

12:37

much is it it touches so

12:40

many parts of our lives our rents

12:42

are bills groceries

12:44

when people are

12:48

you know throwing a party take

12:50

barbecues they know how

12:52

much they were able to buy last year

12:55

internet have

12:57

tyler i could ones

12:59

all the things

13:01

you know her now she bought last year and

13:03

then now you go to a store this year and

13:05

if your wade says haven't grown at

13:07

the same rate as prices you

13:09

buy a lot less the list we've

13:12

talked a lot on planet money about how

13:15

people's expectations about

13:17

inflation or one of the most

13:19

important things policy

13:20

makers are looking at because if they think

13:23

the price of dogs in bands are going to keep going

13:25

up they'll probably ask for a raise

13:27

and maybe their employers will be forced

13:29

to raise prices and so on and so

13:31

forth

13:32

that called the wage price spiral

13:35

and also inflation leads to uncertainty

13:37

about the future and that's bad for

13:39

investment which is bad for

13:41

the time

13:42

me yes oh the same way vibes

13:45

being off can lead to a vibe

13:47

session inflation being

13:50

high and people thinking little behind the future

13:52

can lead to more inflation

13:55

that bad and a car

13:56

before you in the band play something else have of

13:58

the question is there

13:59

might i don't i'm going to these like a musician thing

14:02

that you've noticed have gotten more expensive i'm looking

14:04

to you i'm thinking mallets maybe yeah

14:06

i'm i you know i don't notice had so

14:08

much malibu

14:09

cause i get my mounts for free by know

14:12

but i definitely travel for

14:14

sure i been that's that's death

14:16

are we going up and as a bandleader you can

14:18

notice that

14:19

greg antenna

14:22

read more expensive the year before

14:24

their about forty five bucks an

14:26

hour so you posted a thirty some

14:29

other things that inflation is it access

14:31

at a divorce from for me i live in

14:34

jersey sold just the fact that i have

14:36

to hump and on the train

14:38

on the boss everything is going

14:40

up so yeah the bus came out a couple

14:42

of dollars off of get travel travel

14:44

travel johnson on the base yeah sort

14:46

of sort of same thing in a albers i live in

14:49

brooklyn and so i did let it rest of the

14:51

train and thinks it it all adds up yeah

14:53

logan that are an airbase in that amp around

14:56

yeah i'll actually double bass man

14:59

, is a big it's humid double the size

15:02

size double the fuss ay

15:06

the car we have another challenge another

15:08

chart for you in the band to make into music this

15:10

one this a measure of inflation technically

15:12

it's ten years of what's called core

15:15

cpr and this time crag

15:17

on the tenor is going to interpret it

15:19

that was kind of clever you know horn

15:21

players inflate their lungs

15:50

yeah

15:53

that there is the sound of inflation in

15:55

the last decade stood around two percent

15:57

we thought it would stay there forever and then it's s

15:59

op

16:01

like that more

16:02

it's we got inflation and vibes

16:04

way off but another part of this

16:06

is that a lot of other things in

16:08

the economy are going right right

16:10

now you can see this and a lot of places

16:13

people are travelling a ton restaurants are packed

16:15

business spending is up retail spending

16:17

as up but mostly when we talk about

16:19

the good news says jennifer low the economist

16:22

we are talking about the job market

16:24

the unemployment is very low

16:27

i the job market

16:29

is tight so upon

16:31

me looks like it's booming there's

16:33

been wage growth over the last few years

16:36

though on average inflation has eaten away

16:38

eaten lot of that's an unemployment

16:40

is near record low for the past fifty

16:43

years there are two job openings

16:45

for every available worker right now

16:47

and when people talk about a job market

16:49

like this they use some fun i think

16:51

com musically inclined words that you

16:53

say it's a booming labor market

16:55

or they say the labor market is tight the

16:58

car employment is the backbone of the economy

17:00

the rhythm section is the backbone

17:02

of the band for the final

17:04

elements of this song tin they

17:06

do something tight and booming

17:09

sure

17:13

right

17:17

on

17:37

again

17:38

we're hoping you all can do for us right now

17:40

is that all this together falling

17:43

by inflating lords inflating booming rhythm

17:45

saxon altogether for altogether song

17:47

that sort of may be

17:49

described their

17:50

hannah me right now know that

17:52

i'm gonna , so t

17:55

v t

17:59

started off with the rhythm section we

18:02

started off with that booming labor

18:04

market and

18:09

love it and now a car on adding

18:11

a little consumer sentiment

18:19

and let get that zags wouldn't

18:21

wish

18:38

that was a very

18:41

right person is on thank you all that's

18:43

how they had a lot better than the economy feels

18:46

right now coming up after the break

18:48

how can the economy get out of

18:50

the stinky place

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in or episode notes

20:10

we're back at planet money so

20:12

we've laid out where we're at these days the

20:14

vibes or off and place in his inflating

20:16

job market is tight and booming actually

20:19

nicorette band can we get a little taste

20:21

of that by pleasant sciences the short version

20:23

sure

20:40

yeah that's the funky economy

20:43

right now and the people whose

20:45

job it is to get our economy

20:47

out of this funk are by and large

20:50

the federal reserve because

20:52

as a reminder it's their job

20:54

to think about both inflation and

20:56

that market the job market as we said

20:59

is doing pretty swimmingly and

21:01

so the fed right now is focused on

21:03

getting that inflation rate down

21:04

than the main way they're going to try to do this

21:07

with they've been doing so far is

21:09

there going to raise

21:10

interest rate which how

21:12

will again does the said raising

21:14

rates tamp down inflation

21:17

we as jennifer load the macro economists

21:19

from columbia us to walk us through it and

21:21

she brought up an example that her husband

21:23

are dealing with right now they need to

21:25

decide on whether or not to buy

21:28

a big ticket item

21:29

actually it

21:30

the story know this isn't

21:32

true story are

21:33

back from a trip

21:36

away for a weekend and everything

21:38

in our friends had spoiled and

21:40

there was you know the marine their

21:42

of

21:43

their free there was not frozen

21:46

she says they could make it work

21:48

so they had a decision to make

21:50

do we spend the thousand dollars now

21:53

where do we spend the thousand dollars next

21:56

year and by the fridge sexier

21:58

then she walked us through how that decision

22:01

is being affected by the fed as

22:03

you wait i have a silly idea the

22:05

, as as i don't know if you know

22:07

this but it's kind of a podcast trope a

22:09

podcast joke at this point to

22:11

put some music oftentimes

22:14

a vibraphone as the like backing

22:16

track to dance explanatory

22:18

sections spring about yeah

22:20

totally yes do that you could not going to allow for

22:23

us say allow

22:25

bring out for mallets

22:29

right back to how the bed affects

22:31

whether we decide to buy something now or

22:34

later remember the fridge cause a thousand

22:36

bucks jennifer low could buy

22:38

the for it's now or she could say that money recent

22:41

movie said let's say the fed has raised

22:43

the interest rate to ten percent if

22:45

jennifer say that thousand dollars a year

22:48

he could be worth ten percent more and a year

22:50

she'd have eleven hundred bucks

22:52

that means that what i'll get

22:55

out of that thousand one hundred is not

22:57

just fine and new fridge

22:58

next year but i can also buy more

23:01

food to put in that fresh or

23:03

i could buy an upgraded for it's assuming

23:06

phrases don't cost more year later

23:08

jennifer comes out ahead it's

23:10

national for her to wait to buy

23:12

and that's essentially what the said

23:14

is trying to do the said is trying to

23:16

increase the interest rate to

23:18

incentivize households

23:20

as well as companies to not spend today

23:23

save that money today and by

23:25

not spending today if enough

23:28

people in the economy or not spending today

23:30

that cools down the economy and

23:33

leads to less than place

23:34

that's not the fat is hoping for the

23:37

help center for and a bunch of other

23:39

people don't buy phrases and

23:41

that lower demand keeps freeze prices

23:43

said

23:44

they are in essence trying to

23:47

on a horse the inflationary

23:49

vibes for not just fridges but also

23:51

houses and cars everything

23:54

by raising interest rates the fed has

23:56

made boring for those things way more

23:58

expensive

23:59

it added affect the used car market

24:02

is cool in the housing market is cooling builders

24:04

are starting to build less houses

24:06

and that's the reason a lot of people a lot of economists

24:09

think you're over raiding the vibes

24:11

animal spirits effect on the economy

24:13

this down said in the economy is not

24:15

about feelings it's about people being rational

24:18

and responding to the signals from the fed

24:20

this slowdown is the system working

24:23

if all goes according to the feds plan

24:25

inflation will cool with out

24:27

lots of job losses that

24:29

is actually using a made up term for this they're

24:32

hoping for a quote soft is

24:34

landing as in you know you crash

24:36

landed the inflationary plane but everybody

24:39

the right

24:39

okay here's the scary part the

24:41

fed has it really pulled off this office landing

24:44

thing before certainly not

24:46

within place in this high and that's

24:48

because some people stop buying stuff it's bad

24:50

for the economy it slows growth

24:52

and people lose jobs and

24:55

so the big fear is that we might

24:57

head towards a hard landing

25:00

the lot of job losses

25:01

that a car or last ask

25:03

if you today this idea

25:06

of a soft landing is kind of a term of

25:08

art the day luckily

25:10

we have some artists here live

25:13

in the studio today

25:15

would you all play one of your songs that

25:17

sort of embodies this idea of

25:19

a softest landing this perfect maybe

25:22

impossible scenario where

25:24

yeah i have a tricky situation and everything

25:26

turns out alright

25:27

oh what's the and will do heather

25:29

grey second a like right in

25:32

in the morning and morning and a flat me

25:34

oh

26:52

the to provide session song the car can

26:54

you give the band a shutout

26:55

i would love to our we've got

26:58

giant the michelle on the

26:59

in

27:01

yeah we have asked

27:03

so tall sky on the keyboard

27:08

grateful for we

27:11

now have craig's hill

27:13

on the tenor sax

27:21

and last but not least the

27:23

extraordinary courage

27:32

oh it being

27:33

the madrid do that for the planet money production

27:35

staff pampered absent james

27:37

need an editing

27:40

in a book moving the sliders

27:42

tattered silver with an assist from neil

27:44

routes in the mixing both julie

27:47

moon

27:48

the man behind npr new york studios

27:50

give it up for brand mccain

27:51

minor than all the social media as if you

27:54

are into weird concept art about

27:56

the economy's the channel you'll probably

27:58

have supposed to out of to play him when he

27:59

tick tock they were doing some weird stuff up

28:02

there in the coral where can people find your

28:04

music m you can find my music anywhere

28:06

that you know really find music but if you'd like to

28:08

follow me on the social at the

28:10

current music and i k a are

28:12

a music i'm also in the car

28:14

a warrant dot com alright i'm

28:16

erica barest i'm the belgian i'm

28:18

in a car lawrence this is npr that's

28:21

it that's our show today thank you for

28:23

listening

28:27

is that the weirdest recording session you i've ever been part

28:30

of know yeah

28:37

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dream fearlessly