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0:50

we are continuing to follow up

0:52

on some of this storm damage

0:54

that really has hit Kentucky. We're

0:56

currently in Estle County on Furnace

0:58

Junction Drive. Take a look at

1:00

this home behind me. It has

1:02

been absolutely crushed by a tree.

1:04

There were two earlier this month.

1:06

A series of powerful storms ripped

1:08

across the plains Midwest and South,

1:10

causing severe damage in Tennessee, Missouri

1:12

and Kentucky. The National Weather Service

1:14

confirms four tornadoes in middle Tennessee

1:16

from Thursday night's weather system. Wind

1:18

speeds of up to 110 miles per

1:21

hour were reported, snapping hundreds

1:23

of trees and causing roof damage

1:25

to homes. Multiple people were

1:27

killed in Tennessee, Missouri and Indiana.

1:29

Powerful storms spawned dozens of tornadoes, and

1:32

as people clean up and assess

1:34

the damage, a new line of powerful

1:36

thunderstorms is moving through this weekend. Typically,

1:39

when severe weather hits, A

1:41

constellation of experts comes together, many

1:44

of whom work for the

1:46

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or

1:48

NOAA. They're coordinating with the

1:50

national offices. They're coordinating with

1:52

emergency responders, with emergency managers.

1:55

We're coordinating with all sorts

1:57

of people to make sure

1:59

the word gets out that the

2:01

warnings are correct and timely and accurate. Daniel

2:04

Swain is a weather and

2:06

climate scientist with the University of

2:08

California Agricultural and Natural Resources. When

2:11

I called up Daniel, I wanted

2:13

to ask him about these storms because

2:15

I'd heard that the local office

2:17

of the National Weather Service in Louisville

2:19

didn't conduct a typical poststorm survey.

2:21

Well, that's my understanding as well, and

2:23

although it has been really difficult

2:25

to get official confirmation of the whys

2:27

surrounding any number of pretty conspicuous

2:29

events recently in the Water Service at

2:31

NOAA that appear to be related

2:33

to critical understaffing, essentially the fact that

2:35

there simply aren't enough personnel to

2:37

do all of the duties that are

2:40

required to be done, that is

2:42

what the reporting has said about that

2:44

specific situation as well. And there's

2:46

plenty of evidence this is a much

2:48

more widespread problem right now. Basically,

2:53

because of the Trump administration's cuts

2:55

to NOAA and the National Weather

2:57

Service, there aren't enough people to

2:59

do these jobs in weather offices

3:01

all across the country. And

3:04

it's not just post -storm surveys that are

3:06

being eliminated. Some of the

3:08

most basic forecasting is not

3:10

happening either. Take weather balloons,

3:12

for example. Normally. National

3:14

Weather Service staffers routinely launch what

3:16

are called radio sands. These small

3:18

devices float up with the balloons

3:21

to measure all kinds of weather

3:23

conditions. And essentially, the calculus has

3:25

been made that that is not the best

3:27

use of two to four person hours of

3:29

time, even though it is an objectively very

3:31

important thing to be doing. We've

3:33

also heard that certain weather offices in

3:35

the US are no longer able to answer

3:37

the phone. I mentioned that was a

3:40

critical function. That's a pretty

3:42

basic and kind of amazing capability

3:44

that historically you could just call up

3:46

your local meteorologist at the weather

3:48

service and get a response from a

3:50

trained certified meteorologist who's knowledgeable about

3:52

your own local area. That's no longer

3:54

the case. During that

3:56

same tornado and flood outbreak in

3:58

Kentucky and the central .S., There's

4:00

one weather office in particular,

4:02

I believe it was the one

4:05

in Paducah, Kentucky, where

4:07

the plumbing had failed some weeks

4:09

before the tornado outbreak, and there

4:11

was no ability for the government

4:13

to repair the toilets. And so,

4:15

literally, in this case, there were

4:17

national weather service meteorologists who had

4:19

no facilities to use but a

4:21

port -a -potty in the parking lot

4:24

during a literal tornado outbreak and

4:26

major flood event. Today

4:30

on The Show, the decimation

4:32

of NOAA, the National Weather Service,

4:35

and what happens to Americans when

4:37

the best storm prediction centers in

4:39

the country are gutted. I'm

4:41

Lizzie O 'Leary, and you're listening to What

4:43

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a different future, it's closer than you

5:55

think. I

6:06

want to back up a

6:08

little bit and kind of walk

6:10

through some of the cuts

6:12

and funding decisions we have seen

6:14

and then the effects of

6:16

those. Since March, hundreds

6:18

of employees from the National Oceanic

6:20

and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, have

6:22

been laid off. or been subject

6:24

to some of these reductions

6:26

in force. A lot

6:28

of that includes cuts to

6:31

the National Weather Service. When

6:33

all of this started, what

6:36

was your reaction? Well,

6:39

my initial reaction was, well,

6:41

I guess we are doing exactly

6:43

what was described in Project

6:45

2025 document. It specifically mentioned that

6:47

NOAA was the, I believe

6:49

this is a direct quote, the

6:51

mouthpiece of the climate alarm

6:53

industry, and that the weather service

6:55

should be dramatically downsized and

6:57

downscaled. And the problem is that

6:59

we are now seeing a

7:01

lot of this take shape. And

7:03

so what we're seeing, and

7:06

my initial reaction to this

7:08

has been not. Shock

7:10

or surprise really just deep dismay

7:12

because it was pretty clear this was

7:14

this was on the list of

7:16

priorities and It appears to be headed

7:18

in that direction and of course

7:20

the cuts we've seen so far Especially

7:23

if this document is taken to

7:25

be a policy Blueprint which it certainly

7:27

seems to be in many respects

7:29

This is just the beginning of the

7:31

cuts that may yet still be

7:33

to come and therefore the harm and

7:35

disruption that may yet still be

7:37

to come I think we

7:39

saw a preview of that last week

7:42

with the leak of the passback

7:44

document regarding next year's budget. Think

7:46

of a passback as part of

7:48

a negotiation between federal agencies and the

7:50

Office of Management and Budget. An

7:53

agency will ask for a certain

7:55

amount of money. The OMB will respond

7:57

with its own number. That's the passback. like

8:00

a working list of a

8:02

White House's funding priorities. According

8:04

to the leaked passback, the

8:06

Trump administration would essentially eliminate

8:08

an entire NOAA office, the

8:10

Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Office.

8:13

This office funds studies into

8:15

weather and climate and events

8:18

like flooding and wildfires. The

8:20

OAR has 10 research labs

8:22

and 16 affiliated cooperative institutes

8:24

across the country. The proposal

8:26

would completely eliminate this office

8:28

at NOAA and therefore virtually

8:30

all of the weather and

8:32

climate research and disaster related

8:35

research that that comes from

8:37

it and also all of

8:39

these freestanding essentially federal government

8:41

labs all around the country.

8:43

I'm sitting here today about

8:45

a quarter mile from one

8:47

of those labs and Boulder,

8:49

Colorado, and it's a huge

8:51

facility. I mean, it produces an

8:53

enormous volume of research not only on

8:55

climate change, which seems to be

8:57

one of the reasons or motivations behind

8:59

some of these proposed cuts, but

9:02

also things, again, as I mentioned,

9:04

day -to -day weather, tornado outbreaks, heat

9:06

waves, floods, hurricanes. And

9:08

so, you know, all of this

9:11

is really critical to the ability

9:13

for us to understand how weather

9:15

works, improve our weather predictions, let

9:17

alone understand climate change. When

9:20

there are so few people

9:22

in these offices and when

9:24

a major weather event like

9:27

this happens, what

9:29

is lost? What

9:31

do communities suffer? Well,

9:34

I think some of the

9:36

what is lost is is not

9:38

obvious in the moment You

9:40

know, I'm sitting here today in

9:43

my home office and it's

9:45

a partly cloudy day and it's

9:47

about 70 degrees in breezy

9:49

There's probably not a lot of

9:51

economic harm or or harm

9:53

to life and property that's going

9:55

to come from Understaffing on

9:57

a day like today necessarily although

9:59

I think even there we

10:01

might underestimate it but where the

10:03

rubber really meets the road

10:05

where these the critical understaffing and

10:07

the inability to get this

10:09

initial condition weather information through reduced

10:11

observations and communications breakdowns potentially

10:13

as these accelerate, where

10:15

these are really going to pose

10:17

problems is when the weather

10:19

isn't like I just described today,

10:21

when it isn't calm and

10:23

benign. And even though, of course,

10:25

extreme weather is less common

10:28

than benign or ordinary weather, it

10:30

can be hugely destructive and

10:32

deadly. And at the margins, even

10:34

a relatively incremental decrease in

10:36

the ability of weather forecasters with

10:38

the Weather Service to offer

10:40

24 -7 -365 life and property protection

10:43

services, which is essentially what

10:45

they're doing and what they're mandated

10:47

to do through the congressional

10:49

mandate to fund the organization, then

10:52

that is where We start

10:54

to see the potential for lives

10:56

lost for damage wrought and

10:58

economic harm done that would not

11:01

have been done otherwise. Just

11:03

think about this year alone. A

11:05

record -breaking snowstorm in January, a

11:08

violent central plane storm in March that

11:10

killed at least 42 people over the

11:12

course of a weekend. Not

11:14

to mention the LA fires. Still,

11:17

Daniel says, lives were

11:19

saved because of weather predictions.

11:22

The LA fires, for example, it's

11:24

very likely that that situation would

11:26

have been significantly worse even than

11:28

the catastrophe that unfolded because there

11:30

were really good predictions in advance

11:32

of an extreme wind event preceded

11:34

by record dryness and extremely critical

11:36

fire risk that triggered pre -positioning of

11:38

firefighting resources, closures of parks and

11:40

open areas. People couldn't park on

11:42

the narrow streets and the hills

11:44

of LA to make sure fire

11:46

trucks could get in and out.

11:48

All of that was on the

11:50

basis of a national or the

11:52

service predictions. But what happens if

11:54

the National Weather Service can't track

11:56

all these storms if they are

11:58

so understaffed or their infrastructure and

12:00

computers aren't maintained? Once

12:02

that starts to break down, then even if

12:04

you have the personnel locally, they might

12:06

not have the tools and the information that

12:09

they need to make those accurate forecasts

12:11

if the weather radar goes down in a

12:13

moment where you didn't have those balloon

12:15

launches. Again, not an implausible

12:17

scenario in the Midwest during

12:19

a tornado outbreak and we

12:21

are again in peak tornado season.

12:24

That's the kind of situation

12:26

that could be directly life -threatening

12:28

and certainly economy -threatening. And

12:30

that's just at the extremes. You know, the

12:32

other purpose of no on the weather service

12:34

and weather prediction in general, it's not just

12:36

to avert harm, although I would argue that's

12:39

maybe the most important thing from my perspective,

12:41

but it's also to increase efficiency, ironically. Think

12:44

about logistics companies and airlines. Think about

12:46

why if you've taken the same flight

12:48

twice, it's usually not exactly the same

12:50

path. And there are other reasons, but

12:52

the primary one is that the airline

12:54

is using weather information, weather predictions to

12:56

route the plane in a way that

12:58

uses the least amount of So you're

13:00

not flying directly into the strongest headwind,

13:02

for example. So that's a case where,

13:05

you know, obviously aviation safety depends

13:07

on weather, but also just efficiency.

13:09

Saving money, burning less fuel, economic

13:11

efficiency is one of the main

13:14

things that's driven by effective weather

13:16

forecasts. When

13:20

we come back, remember,

13:22

hurricane season starts

13:24

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size and selection varies by location. Excludes Hawaii.

15:02

NOAA and its adjacent offices are

15:04

not the only federal departments that

15:06

work on weather and climate research. NASA

15:08

also does and is also

15:10

at risk. Something like

15:13

a top -line 50 % cut to

15:15

NASA, for example, is

15:17

in the same budget, which would

15:19

virtually eliminate most Earth science

15:21

and planetary science research. And again,

15:23

the Earth that

15:25

we live on is the subject of

15:27

most planetary science that is funded. We

15:30

live on a planet, by the way. So

15:33

the broader picture is that

15:35

weather and climate science generally advanced

15:37

rapidly over the 20th century

15:40

and has continued to do so

15:42

into the first quarter of

15:44

the 21st. Almost all

15:46

of that advancement in the

15:48

20th century was funded by

15:50

the American government. So through

15:53

taxpayer dollars, through, at

15:55

various points in time, depending

15:57

on who sort of the

15:59

organizational structure within the US

16:02

federal service, NOAA or NASA

16:04

or the Department of Energy

16:06

or the National Science Foundation

16:08

or the US Department of

16:10

Agriculture. The three big ones

16:12

for climate are generally NOAA,

16:14

NASA, and also NSF. The

16:16

National Science Foundation. Thank

16:18

you. And these have all

16:20

been in the news in the

16:22

past week for either actual

16:24

observed and widening decimation of research

16:26

priorities and profiles and just

16:28

the number of funded grants or

16:31

for proposed essential elimination of

16:33

the research that they do. So

16:35

the bigger picture is that

16:37

the U .S. It has arguably

16:39

provided, you know, not just a

16:41

public service to Americans, but

16:43

to the world over the decade

16:45

that it heavily invested in

16:47

weather and climate research. Most of

16:49

the big weather models and

16:52

climate models that exist today were

16:54

developed in large part in

16:56

the United States using federal funding,

16:58

not 100 % of course. And

17:00

now this is starting to

17:02

shift a bit as other countries

17:04

are now preferentially investing more.

17:06

The fact that we have good

17:08

weather forecasts is largely because

17:10

the United States government invested in

17:13

that capacity for decades, and

17:15

all of that is essentially at

17:17

risk of coming to a

17:19

grinding halt. I want

17:21

to talk a little bit

17:23

about the follow -on impacts

17:25

of some of the

17:27

models created by the National

17:29

Weather Service to generate hourly

17:31

and daily weather forecasts. We

17:34

talked about transportation, we

17:36

talked about the

17:38

airline sector, but you

17:41

know, farmers, water

17:43

managers, people who work in

17:45

agriculture. There are

17:47

a lot of

17:49

industries that rely on

17:51

accurate forecasting. Is

17:54

it possible to

17:56

spin out whether

17:58

accurate forecasting will

18:01

exist? how

18:03

it may or may

18:05

not keep pace with

18:07

extreme weather events over

18:09

the spring and summer?

18:13

Well, I think every single industry on

18:15

earth depends on accurate weather predictions,

18:17

whether people who operate in those industries

18:19

realize it or not. But also,

18:22

even just day to day, I think

18:24

there's so much that goes on

18:26

behind the scenes with electricity

18:28

markets and heating and cooling and logistics

18:30

and the distribution of goods getting, you know,

18:32

you just getting from one place to

18:34

another. I mean, just think about your own

18:36

daily life in deciding what you're going

18:38

to wear for the day. When am I

18:40

going to leave for work? Is the

18:42

bus going to be late? Is there going

18:44

to be bad traffic on the freeway?

18:46

Is my flight going to be delayed? And

18:49

so it's everywhere, ubiquitously,

18:51

whether we recognize it or

18:53

not. And I think,

18:55

in fact, it's so embedded in

18:58

everything that it almost has become one

19:00

of those things that is truly

19:02

indispensable and yet is often invisible precisely

19:04

because it is so deeply integrated

19:06

into everything we do every day. So,

19:09

you know, I can't imagine

19:11

that there's a future where we

19:13

don't have weather forecasts in

19:15

the US. I don't think that's

19:17

realistically what's going to happen.

19:19

If for no other reason than

19:21

there's just such an extreme economic

19:24

need for basic functionality

19:26

of society. But

19:28

could they become severely degraded and

19:30

could they become degraded in

19:32

a way that is preferentially problematic

19:34

during destructive or extreme events?

19:37

I think that's very much a

19:39

possibility. Do we

19:41

stop having progress in improving

19:43

weather predictions and understanding

19:45

climate change? On our current

19:47

trajectory, that's very much a possibility. Do

19:49

we seed leadership? Historically,

19:52

the United States was arguably

19:54

the global leader in understanding

19:56

the weather and climate in

19:58

our global atmosphere. The US

20:00

is not the only country that tracks weather

20:02

on a global scale. The

20:04

European Center for Medium Range Weather

20:06

Forecasts provides this information and is supported

20:08

by most countries in Europe. But

20:10

what they don't have are specialized tornado

20:12

and seabird thunderstorm models for the

20:14

US Great Plains, or specialized hurricane models

20:16

for the Gulf Coast, like the

20:18

Weather Service and NOAA does because that's

20:20

the kind of problems that we

20:23

have in this particular country. And,

20:25

you know, that's not something that's

20:27

necessarily in the interest of other countries

20:29

to do a really good job

20:31

predicting exactly whether a hurricane is going

20:33

to make landfall near Houston or

20:35

Western Louisiana or their tornado outbreak is

20:37

going to affect Western Nebraska. That

20:39

could go away too. You know, there's

20:41

a proposal to close a lot

20:43

of these field offices and consolidate in

20:45

a place like DC, for example. So.

20:48

There is much to be lost even though,

20:50

you know, I don't think it's the end of

20:52

weather forecasting. I think that would be, but,

20:54

you know, is it, could it spell

20:56

the end of American leadership in weather

20:58

forecasting and climb prediction? It could. Could

21:00

it mean that Americans have worse weather

21:02

predictions and less reliable, severe weather warnings

21:05

than we've become accustomed to and that

21:07

our economy and our daily lives have

21:09

sort of integrated and take for granted?

21:11

I think that that is a distinct

21:13

possibility on our current path. I

21:15

covered the aftermath of Hurricane

21:17

Katrina and Hurricane Rita, and

21:19

it is not lost on

21:22

me that Atlantic hurricane season

21:24

starts June 1st. Listening to

21:26

you, it also sounds like

21:28

Americans may die because of

21:30

this. Is that going too

21:33

far? Is that saying too

21:35

much? No, I don't

21:37

think that's an exaggeration. Given

21:40

the cuts that have already occurred,

21:42

but especially given the cuts that appear

21:44

to still be coming, the larger

21:47

ones, it is highly plausible

21:49

that there will eventually be cases where

21:51

people will die who didn't have to

21:53

die, who would not have died. A

21:57

better prediction or a more timely

21:59

warning or something like that and it's

22:01

difficult to predict exactly where and

22:03

when and we probably won't ever be

22:05

able to quantify it exactly because

22:07

you know in particular severe

22:09

weather event. Unfortunately, even with the best

22:11

forecast, sometimes there are still casualties. But

22:14

it's very likely that as you start

22:16

to degrade predictive capacity, if you have

22:18

fewer observations upstream going into these predictive

22:20

models to provide these forecasts, and if

22:22

you then also have fewer personnel

22:24

with their eyes glued to the radar

22:26

screen, or if the radar screen is

22:28

empty because the radar went down,

22:30

there's no one available to fix it,

22:32

which is these are all examples of

22:35

things that are actually happening right now.

22:37

that if they happen in the wrong place

22:39

at the wrong time, which is becoming

22:41

increasingly likely the longer these cuts persist or

22:43

the deeper they become, then yes,

22:45

that is likely to be an outcome eventually, as

22:48

much as I hate to say it. If

22:51

you are listening

22:53

to this and you

22:55

are scared or

22:57

horrified and you don't

22:59

know what to

23:01

do, are there

23:03

things you suggest? I

23:07

think this is

23:09

one interesting area where

23:11

despite the chaos

23:14

and all the N

23:16

-Rens around the usual

23:18

guardrails and the

23:20

usual constraints to rapid

23:22

shifts that are

23:25

not approved by Congress,

23:28

There does appear to still be a very

23:30

important role for public pressure in this

23:32

I know a lot of people have been

23:34

in contact in their local Congress people

23:36

many of whom really just have not been

23:38

aware in some cases some are more

23:40

aware than others but a lot of them

23:42

have not been aware of the scope

23:45

of the actual proposed cuts or why they're

23:47

so critically important and what is what

23:49

is at stake what is directly at stake

23:51

like as soon as you know the

23:53

coming days and weeks potentially And

23:55

this has been true, to my understanding,

23:57

both in red and blue states and

23:59

red and blue parts of red and

24:01

blue states, where there's just not a

24:03

lot of understanding of the importance of

24:05

the water service. The fact

24:08

that it is essentially a world

24:10

-class public utility that, you

24:12

know, of a quality that

24:14

doesn't really exist in any other

24:16

country, the US has it, and

24:18

we're trying really hard to keep

24:20

it. In many ways, it's the

24:22

envy of the world in terms

24:24

of meteorological services. So

24:26

understanding that, this is a

24:28

case where there's already been

24:30

some reversals of cuts, at

24:32

least temporarily, on the basis

24:34

essentially of public pressure. I

24:37

think the diplomatic term being used

24:39

by NOAA is an outpouring of public

24:41

support, which is true, actually, but

24:43

Also what it really means is that

24:45

a lot of people got angry

24:47

and talked to the right people about

24:49

it. The only silver lining I

24:51

can think of to unilateral decision making

24:54

is that I suppose those decisions

24:56

can be reversed quickly too. So

24:58

I think that's one big piece of this is talk

25:00

about it, talk to your

25:03

local and congressional representatives about

25:05

what the value is, why

25:07

it's so important, to

25:09

the economy, why it's

25:11

so important to protect the lives

25:13

and the communities that you live

25:15

in and care about, and

25:17

why it would just

25:19

be massively inefficient and

25:21

wasteful to get rid

25:23

of this hugely effective

25:25

and massively beneficial system

25:27

that we've got. Daniel

25:35

Swain, as always, I'm

25:37

really grateful for your time and thank you for coming on. Thanks

25:40

again for having me back. Daniel

25:44

Swain is a weather and

25:46

climate scientist with the University

25:48

of California Agriculture and Natural

25:50

Resources. And that's it

25:52

for our show today. What Next TBD

25:54

is produced by Shayna Roth, Patrick Fort

25:56

and Evan Campbell. Our show is edited

25:58

by Rob Gunther. Slate is

26:00

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26:17

The Discourse. All right, we'll be back

26:19

next week with more episodes. I'm Lizzie O 'Leary.

26:21

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