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1:04

Libray. Welcome to the podcast.

1:06

I'm Josh Clark and there's

1:09

Charles W. Chuck Bryan. Is

1:11

it getting hot in here

1:13

or is it just me

1:15

edition? Yeah, that's right. Well,

1:18

you know what we can

1:20

do. We can just migrate

1:22

to another part of the

1:24

I heart offices here. Yeah,

1:27

nice. A nice cool studio.

1:29

Yeah, they really do keep

1:31

them cool. Frankly, cold. Yeah,

1:33

and that's the last fun

1:36

we're going to have on

1:38

this episode because this is

1:40

not so fun. That is

1:42

not true. There's plenty of

1:45

places for jokes here. Do

1:47

you remember we did one

1:49

on comas and we had

1:52

jokes? So come on, we

1:54

can do this. Yeah, it's

1:56

a good point. So we're

1:58

talking climate migration. And it's

2:01

a really interesting topic. This

2:03

was your idea, actually. And

2:05

I tip my hat to you. Thank

2:07

you. And I'm just joking.

2:09

I'm not wearing a hat.

2:12

See? Another joke. So the

2:14

thing that surprised me, so

2:16

climate migration, we should just

2:18

tell people off the bat,

2:20

is where people have to

2:22

move somewhere else because extreme

2:24

weather, droughts, basically anything extreme

2:26

temperatures. Anything that has to

2:29

do with climate change based

2:31

ruining where they live. Yeah,

2:33

that's climate migration human-wise Yes,

2:36

like there's an animal climate

2:38

migration. We're not even going to talk

2:40

about No, we did a whole episode on

2:43

plant migration. Yeah, it was due to climate

2:45

too. So this is yes, that was a

2:47

good catch. This is human specific

2:49

and one of the things that struck

2:51

me about this is there's a There's

2:53

not a lot of like solid agreement

2:56

on exactly how bad things are going

2:58

to be Yeah, and exactly how far

3:00

people are going to have to move

3:02

and even among the people who do

3:04

agree the experts who do generally agree

3:06

on some stuff They're still like I

3:08

don't know that this is going to

3:11

be as bad as it's being portrayed

3:13

like say in the media Yeah, for sure,

3:15

and you know we'll get to some studies

3:17

and stats and stats you got to keep

3:19

in mind or kind of a guess because

3:21

as Libya points out Or maybe we'll just

3:24

talk about that when we get to the

3:26

stats part. Okay, but I just wanted

3:28

to put a, I wanted to put

3:30

a lid on the hysteria because like

3:32

you said, we just don't know yet

3:34

and it might not be as bad

3:36

as we think. There might be some

3:39

pluses. There are definitely going to be

3:41

some minuses, but it's something that we're

3:43

talking about now and it's decades enough

3:45

into the future that we have time

3:47

to prepare for it. Okay, let's stop emitting

3:49

greenhouse gases too. Okay, it's too late for that.

3:51

Now we have to figure out how to deal

3:53

with the repercussions of that. That's where we're at.

3:55

But we have a little bit of time, and

3:58

if we start thinking about and talk... about

4:00

how to do this smartly and

4:02

responsibly without again becoming hysterical and

4:04

overplaining and overdoing it. We could

4:06

we could do this right and

4:08

make it as comfortable as possible.

4:10

Yeah we being specifically the United

4:12

States because there are other parts

4:15

of the world that are already

4:17

sort of proactive rather than kind

4:19

of like you said being reactive

4:21

and waiting when potential refugees are

4:23

just sort of at the border

4:25

saying like we have no place

4:27

to go because our have our

4:29

place almost at habitat I guess

4:31

humans have a habitat right yeah

4:34

sure is that true yeah every

4:36

animal has a habitat okay I

4:38

didn't know if I was being

4:40

callous by considering us all just

4:42

animals were you being a species

4:44

maybe so but if speaking of

4:46

the US you know you do

4:48

hear a lot of talk about

4:50

that kind of thing like oh

4:52

people are going to be coming

4:55

into our country You know, depending

4:57

on who you talk to in

4:59

this country, some people might welcome

5:01

them, some people might not. But

5:03

as Libya is very astute to

5:05

point out, generally what we're talking

5:07

about nowadays, the more common thing

5:09

that you're seeing is people don't

5:11

want to leave their home, you

5:13

know, so they'll move as kind

5:16

of close as they can. to

5:18

where they're from rather than say

5:20

hey let's just pick up and

5:22

go to a completely different country

5:24

where I know nothing about it

5:26

and I don't speak the language

5:28

like what's generally happening is if

5:30

there's a climate issue like let's

5:32

say which could look like a

5:35

lot of things we're gonna talk

5:37

about a lot of them it

5:39

could mean I just can't farm

5:41

here anymore because it's so drought

5:43

prone or there was a drought

5:45

prone or there was a natural

5:47

disaster here so I have to

5:49

leave people want to move close

5:51

to where they are so they're

5:53

generally saying like all right I

5:56

can't be out here in the

5:58

farm area anymore so let's move

6:00

toward the urban centers and that's

6:02

why a lot of these urban

6:04

centers in the global south are

6:06

popping at the seams yeah and

6:08

it's gonna definitely get more poppy

6:10

for sure as we go yeah

6:12

As it stands right now, especially

6:14

say like, you can take California

6:17

for an example, they deal with

6:19

wildfires, like that's just a fact

6:21

of life and it's getting to

6:23

be a much more frequent fact

6:25

of life. So if you leave

6:27

your house because there's a wildfire

6:29

in your backyard, you are technically

6:31

a climate migrant right then. But

6:33

if you go back and rebuild

6:36

or your house didn't end up

6:38

burning down. You're basically following the

6:40

current pattern of climate migration. You're

6:42

leaving long enough for you to

6:44

take yourself out of harm's way

6:46

during the disaster, the extreme weather

6:48

event, and then going back. But

6:50

if you do that enough times,

6:52

some people are going to just

6:54

get tired of that, and they're

6:57

eventually not going to go back.

6:59

And that's kind of like how

7:01

climate migration, at least say in

7:03

the United States right now, is

7:05

starting to look. Yeah. Starting to,

7:07

starting to establish itself. Right. And,

7:09

but the idea is that I

7:11

guess if you're moving away from

7:13

where wildfires are more rampant, you're

7:15

going to move to a place

7:18

probably as close as you can,

7:20

unless you know, in America, if

7:22

you have like family on the

7:24

other side of the country or

7:26

something where those wildfires generally don't

7:28

happy, maybe you'll do that. But

7:30

if we're talking about countries, you're

7:32

probably moving within your country. And

7:34

within your country, it's not like,

7:37

oh, well, you know, I'm at

7:39

a place where the climate problem

7:41

isn't a problem. So it's not

7:43

solving a bigger problem, you know

7:45

what I'm saying? Yeah, and even

7:47

more so, like if you're a

7:49

migrant, even within your own country,

7:51

like you said, say, like to

7:53

an urban center or something like

7:55

that, a lot of times when

7:58

you show up, you might show

8:00

up with all of your neighbors,

8:02

your entire community, maybe your entire

8:04

region, if the... So like the

8:06

drought is bad enough. And the

8:08

city is not like, hey, we

8:10

just happen to have all this

8:12

extra free housing for you guys.

8:14

So come on in. Very frequently.

8:16

end up in what amounts to

8:19

a refugee camp. It's a climate

8:21

refugee camp, but it's essentially the

8:23

same thing as any other refugee

8:25

camp. There's usually not running water,

8:27

there's not good infrastructure, and this

8:29

is a point that I hadn't

8:31

thought of, but Livia pointed out,

8:33

you're maybe even more vulnerable to

8:35

natural disasters now because you live

8:37

in a tent. So if a

8:40

sandstorm comes along, you're... in trouble

8:42

because you just are in a

8:44

tent rather than say the house

8:46

that you had to leave because

8:48

your farm was no longer producing

8:50

crops. Yeah, and also you're living

8:52

like perhaps in like a shanty

8:54

town on the outskirts of town

8:56

and you're going to see increased

8:59

poverty. That's going to be an

9:01

unstable situation. And then violence comes

9:03

along oftentimes in these places. She

9:05

found one study from 2022 of

9:07

Central African migrants. 5% reported that

9:09

they moved specifically for environmental reasons,

9:11

but 50% said, yeah, but that

9:13

played a part in the decision

9:15

to leave. Like whether or not

9:17

they're saying like, no, the drought's

9:20

too bad here, I'm leaving, or

9:22

some places are just the extreme

9:24

heat is becoming so bad as

9:26

people just can't live there anymore.

9:28

They're not saying I'm moving just

9:30

because of that, but half of

9:32

them were saying like, yeah, that

9:34

was a factor. that led to

9:36

this whole mess. Right, yeah, and

9:38

there's probably the most famous and

9:41

most well-studied recent example of climate

9:43

migration leading to violent conflict was

9:45

the Syrian Civil War. Between 2006

9:47

and 2010, there was a really,

9:49

really bad drought in Syria and

9:51

the surrounding region, and a lot

9:53

of people had to move to

9:55

the city. or cities and they

9:57

like a lot of people were

10:00

displaced and they joined people who

10:02

had already arrived as refugees before

10:04

from Iraq and from Palestine and

10:06

So all these people are there,

10:08

the government is basically ignoring them,

10:10

pretending like they're not there. Their

10:12

farms are being lost, they're getting

10:14

zero help from the government, which

10:16

has become neoliberal under Bashar al-Assad,

10:18

who took over from his father,

10:21

and they start, the unrest gets

10:23

bad enough that a civil war

10:25

starts. Like there's a rebel insurgency

10:27

to topple Assad. And it actually

10:29

ended up working. It didn't at

10:31

first because Assad famously used chemical

10:33

weapons on his own people and

10:35

he got everything under control, but

10:37

then they made a second push

10:39

this past, I think, December and

10:42

ran him out of the country

10:44

and actually took over. And you

10:46

can trace that ultimately back to

10:48

that drought that was created largely

10:50

by climate change. And that's... That's

10:52

nuts. Like if you think about

10:54

it, if that drought had never

10:56

happened, there wouldn't have been a

10:58

Syrian civil war. And that's probably

11:01

the most extreme version example of

11:03

climate crisis leading to violent armed

11:05

conflict, but it's not like it

11:07

doesn't exist. It's not like it

11:09

doesn't happen, like that happened. Yeah,

11:11

I mean, over an eight-year period

11:13

from 2002 to 2010. The urban

11:15

population in Syria went from just

11:17

under 9 million people to almost

11:19

14 million. That is a lot

11:22

of people to add. But, and

11:24

this isn't like to, I'm in

11:26

full agreement, so this isn't a

11:28

counterpoint, but Syria mishandled that and

11:30

there are other countries in the

11:32

region that suffered through the same

11:34

drought, specifically Jordan and Lebanon, that

11:36

had a government that was more

11:38

proactive and responsive and they had

11:40

policies that were put in place

11:43

that They didn't have the same

11:45

kind of destructive outcomes that Syria

11:47

had. So it's, you know, it

11:49

all depends on how you're handling

11:51

this situation. We're going to talk

11:53

a lot about countries, you know,

11:55

people leaving countries, and then especially

11:57

the receiving countries, because that's really

11:59

where the rubber meets the road.

12:02

For sure. If the rubber hasn't

12:04

melted by then. That's right. And

12:06

if the road is still intact

12:08

and not cracked a pieces. Yeah,

12:10

hasn't buckled. Yeah. There are actually

12:12

some estimates all over the place

12:14

about how many climate migrants they're

12:16

going to be. And there was

12:18

something called the groundswell report that

12:20

the World Bank put out in

12:23

2021. And they are saying by

12:25

2050, 2016. million people will have

12:27

moved either to another country or

12:29

within their own country because climate

12:31

conditions have made where they used

12:33

to live untenable. So we're talking

12:35

25 years, not even 30 years

12:37

anymore Chuck, we're in 2025. If

12:39

my math holds up, that's just

12:41

25 years from now. That is

12:44

a tremendous amount of migration. Some

12:46

people say, nah, it's probably going

12:48

to be more like 50 million,

12:50

but it seems like that World

12:52

Bank analysis is the most commonly

12:54

cited, although you could also suggest

12:56

it's the most commonly cited because

12:58

it's such a eye-popping number. Yeah,

13:00

true. Well, this is probably a

13:03

good place since I promised to

13:05

talk about something stat-related. One of

13:07

the reasons it's hard. or one

13:09

of the reasons you get something

13:11

like anywhere from 50 to 250

13:13

million people, this pretty big swing

13:15

is because we don't know how

13:17

effective our efforts are going to

13:19

be to curb emissions and to

13:21

get things, you know, sort of

13:24

on the right track again, how

13:26

successful we're going to be at,

13:28

you know, some wealthier countries doing

13:30

things like seawalls and redistributing water

13:32

resources and things like that, because

13:34

as you'll see a lot of,

13:36

and we've talked about before the

13:38

most precious resource in the future.

13:40

is love. It is love. Oh

13:42

man, I needed that. Water, unfortunately.

13:45

So, you know, there have been

13:47

people that talk about, you know,

13:49

the wars of the future will

13:51

be fought over water. And as

13:53

we'll see, a lot of climate

13:55

migration happens either because of a

13:57

lack of water or a lack

13:59

of water that's useful for humans,

14:01

or too much water and other

14:04

parts like rising sea waters and

14:06

such. Yeah, for sure. So the

14:08

World Bank broke it down that

14:10

Sub-Saharan Africa is going to see

14:12

by far the most 86 million

14:14

followed by East Asia and the

14:16

Pacific at 49 million. South Asia,

14:18

40 million North Africa, 19 million.

14:20

Although some people are like... It's

14:22

going to be even more than

14:25

that for North America and parts

14:27

of the Middle East because it's

14:29

going to get so hot that

14:31

it will be uninhabitable by humans.

14:33

Yeah, I think you meant North

14:35

Africa and not North America. That's

14:37

right. Yes, North Africa in the

14:39

Middle East, not North America in

14:41

the Middle East. I think people

14:43

who listen to the show know

14:46

us enough now to where we're

14:48

like old pals and they're like,

14:50

Josh, you don't even need to

14:52

point that out. We know what

14:54

he meant. You know what though,

14:56

I think, I think we should

14:58

introduce a new device here in

15:00

year 17. Whenever I misspeak, just

15:02

cut me off in the middle

15:04

by doing your egg color spot.

15:07

So let's try that. You ready?

15:09

Yeah. So it's going to get

15:11

so hot in the Middle East

15:13

and North America that, what did

15:15

I say wrong, Chuck? Nothing, I

15:17

just like doing this now. I

15:19

think we've come up with something

15:21

new that we really need to

15:23

do. All right, well, how about

15:26

this? Why don't we take a

15:28

break? You said Latin America was

15:30

17 million, right? No, I never

15:32

got there. Latin America, 17 million.

15:34

Don't forget Eastern Europe and Central

15:36

Asia. Five million, so, you know,

15:38

not nearly as many as the

15:40

others, but there are, again, water

15:42

scarcity. Yeah. So now can we

15:44

take a break? Yeah, we can

15:47

take a break. I think you

15:49

should take us out on your

15:51

eggsblatt sound again. All right, we'll

15:53

be right back. Yeah,

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for a nice pair to wear to a wedding...

19:22

All right, so I kind of

19:25

teased out the importance of or

19:27

I'm sorry importance I soften tease

19:29

here in the South everybody if

19:31

you haven't noticed by now near

19:33

17 receiving communities are very important

19:35

How safe these people are going

19:37

to be when they move to

19:40

this place is there and again

19:42

a they're still going to be

19:44

vulnerable to the impacts of climate

19:46

where they go most likely or

19:48

almost you know with 100% certainty.

19:50

But just how safe they're going

19:52

to be period because we talked

19:55

about sometimes when they set up

19:57

on the outskirts of towns and

19:59

there's violence and they're more susceptible

20:01

by being in a shanty or

20:03

a tent or something to just

20:05

even a hard rain. So it's

20:08

almost like this, it's a vicious

20:10

cycle that's happening where people are

20:12

being displaced to places that also

20:14

aren't safe. Yeah, and we should

20:16

say that most of this migration

20:18

and most of the migrants are

20:20

going to be coming from or

20:23

moving within what's called the global

20:25

South. Yeah. And you don't use

20:27

the equator as the dividing line

20:29

for the global South. For example,

20:31

Australia and New Zealand, squarely in

20:33

the southern hemisphere, but they're not

20:35

considered global south. It's a distinction

20:38

between the developed and the developing

20:40

world. So you have Latin America,

20:42

Africa, India is usually included, China

20:44

is included, and Southeast Asia. And

20:46

these countries, ironically, are, if you

20:48

accept China and India, most of

20:51

these countries have put out the

20:53

least amount of emissions that that

20:55

triggered climate change and yet they're

20:57

the most vulnerable to climate change

20:59

in large part because they're developing

21:01

and if you're a developing country

21:03

you're probably still really reliant on

21:06

agriculture you're reliant on things like

21:08

timber and other natural resources and

21:10

those are the things that are

21:12

getting impacted first right off the

21:14

bat and so if your economy

21:16

is based on agriculture and there's

21:19

a drought that covers your entire

21:21

nation your economy is in big

21:23

trouble and your people are probably

21:25

going to have to move. Yeah,

21:27

here's the thing though, and this

21:29

isn't like a bright side sort

21:31

of thing. It puts a strain

21:34

on resources when a lot of

21:36

new people come to a place,

21:38

but they can also be an

21:40

asset because most of those migrants

21:42

are going to end up performing

21:44

a lot of very important jobs

21:46

in that area. A lot of

21:49

them work in agriculture, some work

21:51

in construction, some work in child

21:53

care. But those same people are

21:55

also not necessarily it depends on

21:57

the receiving community Even down that

21:59

community level and how they're going

22:02

to take care of those people.

22:04

And what I mean by take

22:06

care in this case is just

22:08

see that they get a fair

22:10

shot at like earning a wage

22:12

by performing a job. If you

22:14

face a lot of potential workplace

22:17

abuse, if you're one of those

22:19

migrants and the United Arab Emirates

22:21

is a striking example, 88% of

22:23

the population there. is made up

22:25

of migrants mainly from Pakistan, Nepal,

22:27

Bangladesh, and it's very hot there

22:30

as well. And so they're not

22:32

taking care of their migrant population

22:34

of workers, and they can just

22:36

sometimes some companies might be like,

22:38

you know, we're not going to

22:40

pay you for that. What are

22:42

you going to do about it?

22:45

Yeah, there's a lot of examples

22:47

of modern slavery forced labor in

22:49

the UAE and other countries' very

22:51

wealthy Gulf states. And that is

22:53

a good example of climate migrants,

22:55

but really any kind of migrant

22:57

being taken advantage of. And it's

23:00

something that definitely has to be

23:02

paid attention to. On the other

23:04

hand, there are studies that say,

23:06

okay, this actually might be good.

23:08

Like, yes, we need to make

23:10

sure that the receiving countries are

23:13

not exploiting the climate migrants or

23:15

any migrants. the pressure that could

23:17

be relieved from their home country

23:19

if they're moving to more developed

23:21

or wealthier countries that are more

23:23

set up with infrastructure and social

23:25

structure to absorb them, that actually

23:28

could be a plus because all

23:30

of a sudden the population is

23:32

not swollen in an urban center

23:34

where it's really hot and you're

23:36

around people from an ethnic group

23:38

that your ethnic group has hated

23:40

for a thousand years. like moving

23:43

some of these people out to

23:45

other countries could actually be a

23:47

relief valve that could keep social

23:49

upheaval from happening. Yeah, potentially. So

23:51

under the United Nations, they have

23:53

a refugee convention from 1951 that

23:56

specifically defines, the good thing it

23:58

does, it defines that refugees are

24:00

entitled of legal rights entitled to

24:02

travel, some kinds of support, housing,

24:04

that kind of thing. But the, I guess

24:06

kind of the downside of what

24:08

it did is it very narrowly

24:10

defined what it refugee was in

24:13

the wake of World War II,

24:15

which was you have to be

24:17

fleeing persecution on the basis of

24:19

race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or

24:21

group membership. And only if

24:23

you're fleeing from one. border to

24:25

the next. We already mentioned that

24:28

a lot of this is happening

24:30

within their home country, so they

24:32

don't have any of those UN

24:34

guaranteed rights. But a lot of

24:36

people, legal scholars, are saying, hey,

24:38

we need to expand that definition

24:40

to include maybe not necessarily

24:42

only cross-border and people who

24:45

are climate refugees. Like

24:47

why not add the sun? You can

24:49

be fleeing the sun and we'll consider

24:51

you a refugee from now on. That's

24:53

me every summer in Atlanta. Right. You

24:55

just go down in your basement, right,

24:58

and turn tasty. Yeah. So yes, there are

25:00

like, I guess there's structure, there's

25:02

like global structure that can

25:04

be applied to climate migrants and

25:07

climate refugees. It's just, that's not

25:09

necessarily happening right now, but it

25:11

wouldn't take much I think is

25:14

what we're saying, right? to just

25:16

kind of expand the existing definitions?

25:18

Well, yeah, and that's just, you know,

25:20

that's the UN definition. There are other

25:23

places in the world, the Organization of

25:25

African Unity Convention, and the

25:27

Latin America, Cartagena. Is

25:29

that Cartagena? Yeah. I know that from

25:31

Romancing the Stone. We just watched that with

25:34

Ruby last weekend. It's such a good

25:36

movie. It holds up, and it is, if

25:38

you have a kid that's around that age,

25:40

that's into sort of like action adventure kind

25:42

of movies, which she is, which she

25:44

is, which she is. It's a great

25:46

one man. She had a really good

25:48

time and it's not like super inappropriate

25:51

for an 80s movie That's really

25:53

surprising Did you follow up

25:55

with jewel of the Nile? Not yet,

25:57

but yeah, that'll be coming. It's just

26:00

Danny DeVito man, what a national

26:02

treasure that guy is. Yeah, he

26:04

really is a jewel. So great.

26:06

Ayra! Ayra! I forgot how much

26:08

I love remains in the stone.

26:10

All right, so back to Cartagena

26:12

declaration. They have an expanded definition

26:14

of refugee that is more broad

26:16

than the UN, where they say

26:18

events that are seriously disturbing public

26:20

order, which obviously could include climate

26:22

events. Yeah, the sun can do

26:24

that. Yeah. So one of the

26:26

things that a lot of these

26:28

nations that are going to be

26:30

most affected are saying is like,

26:32

hey, we appreciate you guys thinking

26:34

about this, but we don't really

26:36

want to move. So is there

26:38

like a version of this where

26:40

we can stay and you wealthy

26:42

countries who kind of got us

26:44

into this mess in the first

26:46

place can maybe help fund? some

26:49

of the mitigation efforts that we're

26:51

trying to put in place. And

26:53

so far the wealthy countries are

26:55

like, well I can't hear you

26:57

the connections breaking up. But that

26:59

may change as we get a

27:01

little further down the road. Who

27:03

knows? But there are some governments

27:05

that are like kind of starting

27:07

to plan because they're like this

27:09

is not 2050 for us. This

27:11

is like 2030 that we're having

27:13

to worry about. And in some

27:15

places it's already started happening. Like

27:17

Kiribati is a Pacific Island nation.

27:19

It's 32 nations, about 130,000 people,

27:21

and at best, it's just about

27:23

at sea level. And when sea

27:25

level is rising, curabody is going

27:27

under the sea, and apparently sea

27:29

level is rising about four times

27:31

faster than other parts of the

27:33

world. Yeah, the writing is on

27:35

the wall there very sadly. For

27:37

sure. So their government was like,

27:39

okay, we have to figure out

27:41

how to move people and we

27:43

have to figure out how to

27:45

do it right. And they started

27:48

looking at Fiji, right? Yeah. And

27:50

Fiji kind of stepped up and

27:52

we're like, hey, we have some

27:54

underdeveloped land. I guess it was

27:56

undeveloped. land that we can sell

27:58

you. This is in 2014 and

28:00

the president at the time of

28:02

Kiribati was Anote Tong. Yeah? That's

28:04

right. Yeah. All right. And Tongs,

28:06

you know, was all over this,

28:08

like let's buy this land, let's

28:10

move people like not just, you

28:12

know, a few families, like let's

28:14

start moving on mass over there

28:16

because, you know, the riding is

28:18

on the wall here and these

28:20

islands just aren't going to be

28:22

around at some point. Right. He

28:24

was calling it migration with dignity.

28:26

And then in 2016, Tong lost

28:28

the president to Tenetti Mamao, and

28:30

this, it was just, you know,

28:32

sometimes when a new administration comes

28:34

in, Josh, things can shift in

28:36

radical directions. I don't know if

28:38

you knew that or not. I

28:40

could see Mamao basically running on

28:42

this platform, because I'm guessing 130,000

28:44

people in a 32 island spread.

28:47

Yeah. Is Kiribati. Like I'm guessing

28:49

moving the entire country to Fiji

28:51

is probably top of the mind

28:53

of the voters there. So I'm

28:55

guessing that Mao Mao or Mao,

28:57

ran on a platform against moving

28:59

and was like, no, we're going

29:01

to figure out how to stay

29:03

here, we're going to build seawalls,

29:05

we're going to cross their fingers,

29:07

we're going to use fairy dust,

29:09

who knows what they were running

29:11

on, but they won because people

29:13

don't want to move if they

29:15

don't have to, if there's a

29:17

chance of them staying. where they

29:19

lived, where their families have lived,

29:21

they want to stay typically. That's

29:23

what people who study climate migrants

29:25

are finding. Yeah, well in that

29:27

case it was, you know, billions

29:29

of dollars to like physically re-engineer

29:31

these islands and build those walls

29:33

and they didn't have that kind

29:35

of dough, so China stepped up

29:37

and said, hey, you've got that

29:39

marine protected zone where you don't

29:41

allow fishing, give us those fishing

29:43

rights. So this is just sort

29:46

of a good example of the...

29:48

domino effect that can happen all

29:50

of a sudden you're wrecking that

29:52

part of the sea because it

29:54

was a protected zone that's no

29:56

longer protected because China said, hey,

29:58

we'll help you re-engineer those islands

30:00

if you let us fish there,

30:02

but they only ended up giving

30:04

a fraction of the cost of

30:06

what's needed. I think New Zealand

30:08

is also stepping up, right? Well,

30:10

they tried to. They created a

30:12

new visa specifically for residents of

30:14

places like Kiribati, who are like,

30:16

we need to get out now.

30:18

And New Zealand very kindly, was

30:20

like, you guys can come live

30:22

here, we're going to make it

30:24

as easy as possible as possible

30:26

on you, as possible on you.

30:28

and the people of Kiribati just

30:30

gave them crickets back. Yeah. In

30:32

New Zealand, within six months, they

30:34

canceled the program because they had

30:36

basically no takers. They did not

30:38

need the special visa because people,

30:40

again, don't want to move if

30:42

there's any chance of them not

30:44

having to move. I get it,

30:47

you know? I totally get it

30:49

as well for sure. And I

30:51

mean, if you put yourself in

30:53

that mindset, it suddenly is like,

30:55

okay, I kind of get why

30:57

people keep moving back after their

30:59

house burns down from a wildfire,

31:01

or it gets blown away by

31:03

a hurricane, or it gets picked

31:05

up by a tornado. That's where

31:07

you live. And it just hasn't,

31:09

I feel like it just hasn't

31:11

gotten quite frequent enough for people,

31:13

at least let's say in the

31:15

United States, it's my frame of

31:17

reference. to just be like, okay,

31:19

this is not going to change,

31:21

it's going to keep getting worse,

31:23

we need to leave. Yeah, I

31:25

mean, I think people are two

31:27

minds here, and it seems like

31:29

there are way more people that

31:31

are so attached to their home,

31:33

they don't want to leave it.

31:35

But they're, you know, I've heard

31:37

just anecdotally stories of people, they're

31:39

like, I'm getting the heck out

31:41

of a hurricane, you know, prone

31:43

area, like the... you know if

31:46

you live around the Gulf of

31:48

Mexico or something like that in

31:50

those panhandle the areas or in

31:52

like Houston or Miami you know

31:54

we're getting out of Dodge so

31:56

some people are doing that but

31:58

it definitely doesn't seem like you

32:00

know people are taking it seriously

32:02

enough yet. What's nuts though is

32:04

if If you go to Miami

32:06

today, their skyline is covered with

32:08

construction cranes. They cannot build skyscrapers

32:10

for housing fast enough, because so

32:12

many people are still moving to

32:14

Miami. And I say we take

32:16

a break and come back and

32:18

talk about what's going to happen

32:20

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32:22

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35:43

Chuck, so I named checked Miami before

35:46

the break and that is a really

35:48

good example of a city that is

35:50

kind of up in the air for

35:53

how much climate migration is going to

35:55

affect it. going to get so bad

35:57

down there that they're just going to

35:59

have to abandon Miami? And it'll look

36:02

like a reverse the day after tomorrow

36:04

with heat and in seawater rather than

36:06

everything being frozen. Which by the way

36:08

I saw that the other day. For

36:11

the first time? No. It's actually one

36:13

of my favorite movies it turns out

36:15

because every single time it's on I

36:17

will just sit there and watch it.

36:20

See that all the way? I think

36:22

I might have seen that all the

36:24

way through back when it came out,

36:26

but that was it. Yeah, I hesitate

36:29

to use the word good because it's

36:31

great. But it's, yeah, I just like

36:33

it. It's one of those really, it's

36:35

like Zodiac. I can watch Zodiac any

36:38

time it comes on. Like I might

36:40

not search it out, but I'll just

36:42

sit there and watch it if it's,

36:45

you know, presented to me somehow. No,

36:47

I'm the same way. There's something about

36:49

Zodiac. There's something about Zodiac. There's something

36:51

about Zodiac. There's something about Zodiac. Yeah,

36:54

for sure. But the day after tomorrow

36:56

is like that for me. Okay. Well,

36:58

you know what? I should check it

37:00

out again. Oh, and I think I

37:03

have a good reason to coming up.

37:05

Yeah, that's actually what triggered that idea.

37:07

Oh, okay. You and me just talking

37:09

about something that only you and I

37:12

know about. I know, you know. I

37:14

have a couple of stats as far

37:16

as the United States goes. This is

37:18

at this point already here in 2025.

37:21

Two or three million Americans leave their

37:23

homes every year, every single year, two

37:25

to three million due to natural disasters

37:27

happen. Floods, earthquakes, fires, hurricanes, all the

37:30

stuff that happens here. I don't, we

37:32

don't have volcanoes. That's not the one,

37:34

that's not the ones, well there's Mount

37:37

St. Helens, that was a big deal.

37:39

Oh yeah, yeah, true. But generally in

37:41

the lower 48, we don't have volcanoes.

37:43

Right. So that two to three million

37:46

number those are people who move permanently,

37:48

right? That's not just people who like

37:50

believe and then come back No, no,

37:52

no, those are most of those people

37:55

do return but Over the past couple

37:57

of decades about three million people have

37:59

moved just to avoid flooding, which is

38:01

a long period of time, but those

38:04

are people that are just like, yeah,

38:06

it just, this place floods. I mean,

38:08

I remember after Katrina, I

38:10

feel like Atlanta got a

38:12

pretty decent amount of displaced

38:15

New Orleans residents that stayed

38:17

here. I have evidence by

38:19

going to Falcon's games. Right, so

38:21

did Houston too. Yeah. Yeah, so

38:23

that's a great example of that kind of

38:25

thing happening. And like I'm sure a lot

38:27

of them went back when it was clear

38:29

that New Orleans was going to be rebuilt

38:31

and revitalized and get back to normal. But

38:33

a lot of them stayed. I'm sure a

38:35

lot of them were like, things don't flood

38:37

quite as much here in Atlanta. So

38:39

I'm going to just kind of stay here.

38:41

Yeah, and Atlanta, I mean, New Orleans is

38:44

certainly such a singular, unique, unique city

38:46

in America culturally, like maybe more

38:48

so than almost any city I've

38:50

been to. So Atlanta is not

38:52

that, but it's another big city

38:54

in the South that I think

38:56

is at least relatable to somebody

38:58

from New Orleans in some ways.

39:00

For sure, yeah. There's like 98%

39:02

less brass bands marching around, but

39:04

you know, there's still a certain

39:07

amount of like southern affinity between

39:09

the two cities, right? Yeah, for

39:11

like big cities. So sea level

39:13

rise is going to affect the

39:16

US, but I didn't know this.

39:18

You know, they talk about sea

39:20

level rise, you know, being like

39:22

0.1mm a year or something like

39:25

that, or they're predicting, that's the

39:27

global average. Sea level rises in

39:29

different places at different rates, and

39:31

it can be so local that

39:33

apparently the eastern seaboard of

39:36

the United States is, that sea

39:38

level is rising faster than the

39:40

west coast. It can be that

39:42

local. And the reason why is

39:45

there's something called post-glacial rebound where

39:47

the top part of the

39:49

eastern seaboard, like New York,

39:51

all that area, was pressed down

39:53

by a glacier. And after the

39:55

glacier retreated 10,000 or so years ago,

39:58

that part of the land is... still

40:00

moving up. It's coming back, it's

40:02

rebounding, but at the same time

40:04

that's kind of pushing down like

40:06

a sea saw the southern part

40:08

of the eastern seaboard. So that's

40:11

actually, the sea levels are rising

40:13

faster there than even in the

40:15

northern part of the eastern seaboard.

40:17

It's crazy. Yeah, and you know,

40:19

that's just sea level rise and

40:21

this isn't a... and reticent to

40:23

do episodes sometimes where we're just

40:26

like, you know, slinging fear and

40:28

statistics. But it's sort of the

40:30

reality right now. Wildfire threat has

40:32

just gotten worse, especially if you're

40:34

talking about Nevada and Oregon places

40:36

that maybe didn't see the most

40:38

wildfire in the past, and it's

40:41

not just Miami as far as

40:43

sea level rise, like New York

40:45

and Boston. I mean, New York

40:47

has seen flooding in... you know,

40:49

the not too distant past where

40:51

we never used to see things

40:53

like that happening there. I saw

40:56

that some of the communities, the

40:58

houses along Jamaica Bay, which I

41:00

guess is Queens, right? Yeah. They

41:02

flood every time there's a high

41:04

tide, there's a full moon. Like

41:06

just like their entire basement just

41:08

totally flooded. And it's starting to

41:10

happen every single time there's a

41:13

high tide. So yeah, I was

41:15

reading like there on the forefront

41:17

of talking about climate migration in

41:19

the US. Well, the other thing

41:21

too that we've mentioned early, we

41:23

haven't talked so much since then,

41:25

is this not necessarily a climate

41:28

event or some natural disaster either

41:30

to cause climate migration. It's like

41:32

farmers, if they can't farm there

41:34

anymore, and their livelihood is gone,

41:36

they might move. And across the

41:38

south and southwest, especially in Texas,

41:40

the projections for corn and soy

41:43

are just falling, falling, falling, falling.

41:45

So... You're going to be able

41:47

to grow that easier in other

41:49

parts of the country. So that's

41:51

a bit of a silver lining

41:53

as things you know change and

41:55

shift But those are going to

41:58

eventually be climate migrants those farmers

42:00

there Yeah, and so it seems

42:02

like the projections show that 2050,

42:04

2070, the current climate that spreads

42:06

across the United States is going

42:08

to shift northward by a few

42:10

states. And those states that are

42:13

currently hot right now, but still,

42:15

you know, kind of nice, like

42:17

Florida, coastal Georgia, they're going to

42:19

potentially become uninhabitable just because it's

42:21

going to be so hot. So

42:23

it turns out I was right

42:25

about the Middle East and North

42:28

America becoming so hot that it

42:30

can be uninhabitable. And apparently that's

42:32

due to what's called the wet

42:34

bulb temperature, which is a mind-boggling

42:36

formula that barely anyone on the

42:38

internet can explain. And I can't

42:40

throw sling arrows because I can't

42:42

really explain it either. But essentially,

42:45

it's the temperature where your body

42:47

will no longer be able to

42:49

cool itself. And so being outside

42:51

in the sun, just standing there,

42:53

is actually life-threatening. They're saying that

42:55

it's going to become the norm.

42:57

for say like Florida and southern

43:00

Georgia to hit those temperatures and

43:02

so the people are just going

43:04

to have to move because you

43:06

wouldn't be able to leave your

43:08

house and even go outside. Do

43:10

you remember when we were tasked

43:12

with doing a panel at a

43:15

podcast movement, that's the name of

43:17

the industry conference I guess? Yeah,

43:19

con. But it's like an industry

43:21

conference and we were... supposed to

43:23

speak in like 10 minutes on

43:25

stage and a fire alarm or

43:27

something went out. Oh yeah. And

43:30

they made us go outside and

43:32

it was two minutes in the

43:34

Orlando summer heat after it had

43:36

stopped raining when it was afternoon

43:38

Florida rains. Right. that everywhere else

43:40

on earth that that cools things

43:42

down but it makes things hotter

43:45

in central Florida yeah and we

43:47

went outside and had to stand

43:49

out there for like 20 minutes

43:51

before they let us back in

43:53

and dude I'm a hot sweaty

43:55

person anyway I have never sweated

43:57

that much that fast in my

43:59

life yeah I was dying and

44:02

they were like, all right, back

44:04

in everybody and hop on stage.

44:06

Right. I remember that. I was

44:08

pretty sweaty too. Oh man, I

44:10

was in bad shape. It was

44:12

not good. Just wait till 2070

44:14

power. You just melt. Hidecast movement

44:17

2070. Right, right. Here we are.

44:19

So the US is actually a

44:21

good example. of people not freaking

44:23

out. Some people freaking out, but

44:25

it seems mostly like it's the

44:27

media just kind of poking and

44:29

goosing everybody that among scholars who

44:32

study this, they're not particularly freaked

44:34

out. They're like, yes, some people

44:36

are going to have to move.

44:38

Yes, it's going to really start

44:40

to pick up eventually, but there

44:42

will also be mitigation efforts that

44:44

we can do. Like, Miami is

44:47

just too valuable to just let

44:49

go away. So they're going to

44:51

figure out how to build sea

44:53

walls. protect Miami and make sure

44:55

that it's aquifer doesn't get salinated

44:57

and ruin. Like people will just

44:59

pump money into Miami. The U.S.

45:02

government will, Florida will. But if

45:04

you go like a little north,

45:06

you know, who's to say that

45:08

Delray Beach or Viro Beach is

45:10

going to be around still at

45:12

that time. Right. The cities will

45:14

be protected, but the smaller towns

45:17

in between the major cities on

45:19

the coast. There's not going to

45:21

be any money for them. So

45:23

those people are going to have

45:25

to move. Yeah, and I mean

45:27

that kind of puts things squarely

45:29

in the middle of the policy

45:31

debates. We're hearing more and more,

45:34

which is how much do we

45:36

put into places that we think

45:38

are increasingly unlivable in the future?

45:40

This is something I did not

45:42

know. I'm glad Libya dug this

45:44

up, but FEMA, the Federal Emergency

45:46

Management Agency, has been buying up

45:49

properties. that are prone to this,

45:51

that are just flooding time and

45:53

time again, and they're turning this

45:55

land into wetland and trying to

45:57

do something about it. And, you

45:59

know, there are various states that

46:01

are saying like, hey, you know,

46:04

it's getting harder and harder to

46:06

get your house insured against fire.

46:08

We used to subsidize these insurance

46:10

companies. Now we're not doing that.

46:12

I have friends in California like

46:14

if you buy a house in

46:16

certain parts of California, sometimes you

46:19

cannot even get insurance anymore. Right.

46:21

The same is true in parts

46:23

of Florida too. It's really becoming

46:25

a big problem to get even

46:27

get insurance rather, let alone like

46:29

being able to afford an insurance

46:31

policy. And as that happens, as

46:34

it becomes more and more apparent,

46:36

that if you move to Florida

46:38

or you move to California there's

46:40

this huge additional expense or potentially

46:42

you might not be able to

46:44

have home insurance right like that's

46:46

going to affect those markets and

46:49

that in and of itself is

46:51

going to keep people from migrating

46:53

there and it's going to also

46:55

that's what will trigger mass migrations

46:57

from Florida from California because people

46:59

are going to start panicking about

47:01

their real estate values just plummeting

47:03

yeah A lot of people will

47:06

get out. People of means will

47:08

get out. Yes, and that's a

47:10

really important point. It doesn't matter

47:12

what country you're talking about, whether

47:14

it's global, north, global, south. Doesn't

47:16

matter. The ability to migrate is

47:18

typically something reserved for the more

47:21

well-off groups. Or to migrate successfully.

47:23

Right, okay, great. The poorest, the

47:25

most vulnerable people. in no matter

47:27

whatever country you're talking about those

47:29

are the ones who are at

47:31

the greatest risk of just getting

47:33

left behind they don't have the

47:36

money to move they don't they

47:38

can't tell their house now because

47:40

no one wants to buy it

47:42

because it's basically valueless and they're

47:44

stuck in this place that everyone

47:46

else who could migrate it out

47:48

of that is going to be

47:51

a really big thing to watch

47:53

for those people are going to

47:55

need help their human beings they

47:57

didn't ask for this that's just

47:59

how the how the dice landed

48:01

so they deserve to be helped

48:03

again just because they're humans. because

48:06

they're Americans, just because they're Zimbabweans.

48:08

It doesn't matter. That's going to

48:10

be something to really pay attention

48:12

to down the road. Boy, what

48:14

kind of world would we be

48:16

in, my friend, if the qualification

48:18

for aid to others was fellow

48:20

human and not drawn by boundaries

48:23

and ideologies? I hope that, I

48:25

mean, my hope is that someday

48:27

we'll hit that point. I don't

48:29

know if we'll still be alive

48:31

or not, but I do hope

48:33

that I do think people will

48:35

get there. if we survive as

48:38

species. I mean plenty of great

48:40

organizations are have been doing that

48:42

since the jump but I'm talking

48:44

about major governments in the world

48:46

looking at other humans as you

48:48

know other humans or even societies

48:50

too you know I mean yeah

48:53

I mean that's just everywhere in

48:55

the world there's so many pockets

48:57

of just conflict and issues and

48:59

hatred of of people for eventually,

49:01

like arbitrary reasons. The idea of,

49:03

yeah, getting to that point, Chuck,

49:05

it's just, it's titillating to me.

49:08

I'm titillated right now. I think

49:10

that's it for now, huh? It's

49:12

gotta be. Well, we'll revisit this

49:14

in 2050. All right. Well, since

49:16

Chuck agreed to revisiting this episode

49:18

in 2050, everybody, that means it's

49:20

time for a listener mail. Follow-up

49:25

from a backyard chicken farmer about egg

49:27

colors. Hey, I've listened to you goofballs

49:29

for years. So much love to you

49:32

and your gang. Yes, please support your

49:34

local farmers with their truly humanely raised

49:36

eggs costing in many cases. Lesson store

49:38

bought, like Chuck said, you're getting an

49:41

amazing deal for higher quality eggs. Number

49:43

two guys, the waxy coating is called

49:45

a balloon. It's a naturally produced coating

49:48

which is not hard or thick. that

49:50

is placed as a part of the

49:52

laying process to protect the egg contents

49:54

from bacteria. I believe Josh said that.

49:57

Comes off easily with just a little

49:59

bit of dawn. And number three, please

50:01

do not use dish soap to wash

50:03

your eggs. Oh yeah? While eggshells are

50:06

strong, they're not impermeable. Eggs need to

50:08

be washed with just water or water

50:10

in an egg safe cleaner at a

50:13

temperature about 20 degrees higher. Right. But

50:15

no more than that, because you can

50:17

cook the egg on the inside. Oh,

50:19

that makes sense. 20 degrees higher than

50:22

the temperature of the egg interior. Washing

50:24

an egg at too high will potentially

50:26

cook it. Wash it a temperature lower

50:29

than the shell contents and the permeable

50:31

nature of the shell will actually absorb

50:33

the exterior contents so you're eating whatever

50:35

soap that you are using. Well, not

50:38

dawn. It says on the label. Egg

50:40

safe cleaner. This knowledge is gained from

50:42

keeping my own backyard flock for over

50:44

a decade, and that is from the

50:47

wonderful. Meg. Thanks a lot Meg. That

50:49

was a top-notch email. We appreciate it.

50:51

And thank you for saving everybody who

50:54

was about to wash their eggs with

50:56

dish soap under my suggestion. If you

50:58

want to be like Meg and get

51:00

in touch of this and be like,

51:03

oh no, no, no, here's what you

51:05

really should do. We love those kind

51:07

of emails. You can send it off

51:09

to Stuff Podcast at I Heart Radio.

51:12

For more podcast's My Heart Radio, visit

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the I Heart Radio app. Apple podcasts

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51:25

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51:50

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51:58

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tune in to Radio, season

52:03

10, today. Okay! Now that's what I call

52:05

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52:07

I call a podcast. Mala.

52:09

I'm Fiosa. of I'm

52:11

Mala. The host of

52:13

Locatora no bela. Which is just a

52:15

which is just a

52:17

very extra way of

52:19

saying, a podcast. Listen

52:22

to Locatora Radio season 10

52:24

on the app. Apple podcasts Apple or

52:26

or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey

52:29

y'all, it's your girl Cheekies and

52:31

I'm back with a brand new

52:33

season of your favorite podcast, Cheekies

52:36

and Chill. I'll be sharing even

52:38

more personal stories with you guys

52:40

and as always you'll get my

52:42

exclusive take on topics like love,

52:44

personal growth, health, family ties, and

52:46

more. And don't forget, I'll also

52:48

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52:50

to you on episodes of Dear

52:52

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52:54

exciting year and I hope that

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52:59

Cheekies. podcasts.