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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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As you listen to this podcast, the 47th President of the United States of America,

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Donald J.

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Trump, has completed 100 days in office. And what 100 days it's been, it doesn't matter whether you like him or you hate

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him, you have to say he's a great source of fascination to more or less everybody.

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It's a difficult job that Philip Saunders...

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director at the Investment Institute at 91 in London,

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and I have today because you can't talk about Donald Trump without certain

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personal

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passions about how he goes about his business come to the surface.

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But I'm going to try. I know Philip's going to try.

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And what we're going to do is give him a hundred day, almost like a school report

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on the various things that he's done to the financial

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markets and geopolitical markets and so forth. Philip.

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That's me saying let's not argue about Donald Trump and let's not indulge

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ourselves in partisan politics, please.

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Can you do that?

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I can just about do that, I'm sure.

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All right. Let's start with the obvious one then. And that is the equities markets, notably the US market.

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When he came to power, they were pretty buoyant.

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And I think they peaked something like February the 13th.

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When he started opening his mouth about various things that some people didn't

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like, in fact most market participants didn't like,

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because that was the peak of the stock market, and from high to low the S&P fell

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nearly

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20% and they were troubling times. It was the worst start to a presidential residency in history when it came to stock

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market performance.

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Maybe you could sort of outline your theories on this. Was it ripe for the picking already?

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Was it Trump related? Did one man do all this?

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Well, I think that we've got to remember that we were in a momentum market,

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a strong momentum market before Trump was elected.

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There was then a wave of euphoria because when he was previously president,

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he was clearly he's pro deregulation, he's pro business, he's anti regulation, etc.

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And so that just extended this strong momentum move.

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which was led, as we know, by a pretty narrow group of stocks.

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And the market was sort of particularly buoyant. Also, there were seasonal effects, because at the end of the year, you get the

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Christmas rally and so forth.

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And this was no exception, a particularly strong one. And that all carried through until February.

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And then he went and spoiled it all from an equity investor's perspective.

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But come on, there was going to be a correction at any rate.

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And that's... certainly what we felt when we had to write the outlook.

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The US market was getting overextended.

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This particular bull run was mature. And these market cycles, you have corrective phases.

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Markets get ahead of themselves in any event.

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And it may well be there's a sort of particular trigger that determines the

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timing of a correction and possibly its

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severity.

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But it's part of the sort of normal behavior of markets. So we shouldn't sort of get too carried away about that and sort of, you know,

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pointing a finger at Trump as being basically sort of spoiling the party.

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The party was going to get spoiled at any rate at some point.

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Yes, it was. But on the other hand, the naysayers,

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when it comes to Trump's very sort of muscular political stance

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in various areas, would say as soon as he stood up with that board in the Rose

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Garden.

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that day hastily scribbled a board about with all the countries and what he was

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going to do to them

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the market was closed of course he made sure of that but the markets never closed

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so as soon as the futures markets opened at

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midnight central european time they started ticking lower they were two

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percent down and then by the end of the day the real session the next day

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they were down anything between five and seven percent depending on your chosen index then i thought that's it bit of a washout and

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that was it but no That was the Thursday.

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The Friday, same again, except worse. And I thought this is something completely different.

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And the complete difference factor was Donald Trump, I believe.

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Sure. So you've got to remember that.

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In fact, actually, I think that the most serious market reaction actually was not

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in equities.

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It was in bonds, because basically, you know, the kind of things he was, the

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disruption he was.

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threatening, if you like, you know, by ratcheting up the demands for higher and

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higher tariffs,

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particularly against China, you know, obviously a major supplier to US industry.

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Actually, it was the bond market misbehaving that I think basically

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triggered a change of course and indicated

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that, you know, because you've got to remember that... The US is now highly indebted, you know, 122% plus government debt to GDP ratio,

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which is sort of uncomfortable. And it relies profoundly on flows of foreign savings in order to actually fund

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that deficit. And so the fact that the dollar went down, and bond yields actually rose rather than

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fall, because normally,

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basically, in a risk off event, the dollar would rally. and bonds would also rally, and equities would sell off.

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That was the standard. This time around, that didn't happen.

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And that was, you know, and Trump, you know, well, certainly his advisers were

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pretty concerned about that.

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And that has, you know, I think triggered him to sort of pull back and to realize

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that, you know,

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actually banging the table like this, you know, does have...

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you know could plunge the u.s economy ultimately into recession uh primarily of

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things like the bond market misbehaves

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yes yes the bond market was terribly terribly interesting because it's the

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biggest market in the world we can't even begin to comprehend its

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vastness well i can't uh and it sold off in other words the bond market sold off

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and as there's a

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a relationship where when bonds come off yields go up or when yields go up bonds

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come down yields went up,

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bond prices came down.

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And at the same time, as you quite rightly said, equities are coming down.

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And you don't see that very often. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen it to such a correlated extent in my time in

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the financial markets.

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So there's one safe haven gone, the U.S. Treasury market.

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Other bonds did rather well or relatively well out of it.

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The dollar used to be a safe haven. That tumbled a little bit excessively and probably will recover a bit.

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But nonetheless, it tumbled. The only thing that seems to have done well in my next category, which was the

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safe haven, is gold,

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which has been astonishing.

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3,500 plus at one stage, Philip.

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Yes.

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Well, you know, of course, it's a barometer, if you like, of this trend towards deglobalization.

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And gold, this time around, this particular cycle, prior to this particular

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sort of strong move, further move up.

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It has really been driven by central bank buying. And you can date that really back to sort of when things started to go wrong.

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The first Russian invasion of Ukraine, you know, where they took over the Crimea.

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And then basically we sort of kicked off again after the second Russian invasion

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of Ukraine. The Europeans froze the Russians.

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foreign exchange reserves that were held in euros predominantly and and of course

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basically that means that you know it's

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a signal that you know when you need to get hold of your reserves you need to get

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hold of your reserves and

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if they're going to be frozen you know by hostile power then it's not going to do you much good when you actually need

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that money and so

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therefore we've seen you know significant move to diversify using gold

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on the part of central banks around the world in order to reduce their reliance on

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the US and US capital markets.

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So that has been a sort of principal driver behind gold. And then, of course, Trump ratcheting the conflict up, you know, again,

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suggests that there's going to be an acceleration in this process of, you know,

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global unraveling, if you like.

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And that basically and the failure of other assets to actually provide perfect.

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protective characteristics as basically you know supercharged gold let's look at a

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couple of side shows now

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and when i say side shows i don't mean to trivialize them at all but the gaza

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situation the the first thing he said was

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uh i think he woke up one morning and he said goodness me look

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at the water as he calls it there in other words the the beachfront uh look at the

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potential here because the place is ruined

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and I can turn it all myself and my partners. can turn it into the Riviera of the Middle East.

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And instead of thinking about it and talking about it rationally, as his father

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would have done, if you read the book Lucky Losers,

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you get an idea that his father was a meticulous man when it came to numbers,

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and only when every

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I was dotted and T was crossed and all those other things would he put an ad in

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the paper and say,

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these apartments available for rent and so on. Whereas his son, he's more, he thinks that the name Trump and

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the cult of celebrity will help, even though he's got absolutely no plan.

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And that's the first thing. Then there was the 24 hours the Ukraine-Russia war will be solved, and

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that failed.

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I don't know, Philip.

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The sideshows are...

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It's somewhat disturbing to me.

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So I think that you shouldn't get too carried away. He basically shoots from the hip verbally a lot of the time and he says things that

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aren't really serious and people take them too seriously.

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Why does he say them if he knows they're not serious?

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Because he obviously knows they're not serious. Because he wants to get a reaction and he wants to be centre of attention in social

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media because that's worked for him.

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And the fact that it's sort of, you know,

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he's president and this is not particularly what we'd expect from

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somebody who would like to

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be seen as a statesman in a conventional sense is, you know,

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is just the reality of Donald Trump. But to say he doesn't have a plan, I think is wrong.

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I think that there is evidence that there, you know, that there is, well, there are a

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series of objectives.

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And in the same way that in his first administration,

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he basically started to force the unraveling of what we used

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to call Chimerica, the integration of the Chinese and the American economies.

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And, you know, frankly, he was right about that.

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He didn't do it particularly effectively because China has gone on to get a lot

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stronger subsequently.

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But he... He said enough was enough.

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And then the Biden administration followed that policy and actually made it even

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tougher. And if we look at what he's trying to do at the moment, he's 100 days in.

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We reckon he's got sort of political inertia he's going to set in.

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He's going to be able to do very little, certainly after the first two years, and

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arguably sort of...

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200 days in, if you haven't really sort of got momentum, then that's going to be

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tough. And he's got ambitious plans to actually reshape

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America's defense commitments to address the problem of sustainability

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of debt. So he's got a number of things he wants to achieve.

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you might not like...

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the way that he's going about it, and it may well be that the way he's going about

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it is counterproductive,

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which will prevent him from achieving his objectives. But he has got a series of objectives that he's trying to get on with.

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And, you know, I suspect he will, you know, ultimately succeed in part, but he's

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got to be careful,

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clearly, to not get too carried away, because basically to see further substantial weakness in the equity market.

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He's going to damage his popularity and damage his ability to actually get stuff

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done. Speaking of damage, a lot of people are saying it doesn't matter what he does now.

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It doesn't matter if he cuts Chinese tariffs from 145% down to 25%. A lot of

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the damage has already been done.

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It's going to be difficult to undo. Do you believe that in his first 100 days, a good deal of damage has been done and a

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good deal of confidence in the United

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States and the United States administration has been shattered?

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Yeah, I mean, I think that the people really now get the fact that there's going

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to be a serious

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reset in global geopolitics, in things like defense spending,

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and the willingness and indeed the ability of the U.S.

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to play this role of sort of global number one.

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You know, they're saying, right, you know, we cannot sustain sort of imperial America

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in the style that we've.

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you know, been used to after the Second World War. And if you have a problem with that, then clearly a lot of people are shocked.

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You've got German politicians weeping and all this kind of stuff.

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But come on, this is reality, the rise of China, you know,

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and I think you can sort of over egg the fact that they're sort of this sort of

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evil empire and so forth, led by communists, etc,

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wanting to take over the world.

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But they represent a very serious geoeconomic and geopolitical threat to the

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US. And the US basically is trying to get its act together, or Trump is trying to make

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America great again, i.e.

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what does that actually mean?

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Well, it's to actually sort itself out so that it can compete effectively with

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China. That's really the thing. And yeah, he's managed to upset his allies and this, that and the other,

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but a lot of his allies have literally been enjoying an unlevel playing field.

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You know, they haven't been paying enough for defense.

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They've got sneaky tariffs. This idea that we're in this wonderful world, seamless world of free trade, I

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mean, it's a sort of,

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it's a nonsense, you know.

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OK, tariffs were relatively low, but there are lots of exceptions and there are a lot of non-tariff barriers and so

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forth. And by and large, you know, the U.S.

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sort of was prepared to put up with that because, you know, certain sections of

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U.S. society actually did pretty well out of it. But, you know, unfortunately, you know, the absorbing China, you know,

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a typical sort of, you know, Dirigis type economy with...

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a lot of state intervention, you know, it was just too big and too successful.

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So now the system has to change.

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And that's the important thing. You know, tariffs is a peripheral thing.

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I don't think that, you know, tariffs is a sort of, as a weapon, you know, is it

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really going to, are they really going to be that effective?

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They're going to raise a bit of money because, you know, when all the dust

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settles,

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I think we've passed peak tariffs or peak. tariffs in rhetoric, then, you know, you are going to have tariffs, maybe 10%

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or something like that across the board in the US, which is, you know, which is like

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a tax, you know,

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and American consumers will be paying some of that. And the US, you know, needs more revenues, because otherwise,

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the budget deficit problem is going to get worse, which will leave the country more

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vulnerable. OK, let's have a look at another few things. We can't go into each one in any great detail, but we can look at the Panama

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Canal.

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We can look at Canada and Greenland.

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You can look at some of the appointees.

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I mean, the most notable one at the moment in the news is Pete Hegseth, who is the

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Defence Secretary.

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He's clearly out of his depth, again, my opinion. So it just all comes together at the same time.

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I mean, there's the really meaty stuff, which you've beautifully described.

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And maybe he does have a plan. I really hope he does.

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And then there's the other stuff, which really annoys people, Philip.

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And I don't want to be annoyed by the most powerful man in the world.

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Yeah, well, I mean, I'm afraid, Lindsay, you know, that is your lot in life.

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And I can't really do very much about that.

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No, but you can explain it to me. You can explain it to me, Philip, and then at the end, you're going to tell me how to

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take advantage of it, of course.

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This time around, he's appointed his people. Some will fail and some will succeed.

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And I suspect that, you know, Besant, as US Treasury Secretary, you know,

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will turn out to be a very good appointment. Yes.

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And he certainly pulled Trump back from the brink.

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He understands markets in a way that Yellen, his predecessor...

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you know, was sort of hopelessly out of depth.

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And, you know, Hesketh, basically, if he isn't up to the job, he's going to get

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fired. And, you know, maybe he, you know, peaked as an anchor on Fox News, and that was, it

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was a bad appointment.

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You know, Trump, you know, you know, he doesn't go down with the ship if somebody

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isn't performing.

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So I wouldn't get too hung up about Mr Husky.

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I can't help it. I turn on the television, I get hung up on little things like that.

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It's like his cabinet meetings. He's got everyone recorded.

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And he sits there, the emperor, wearing no clothes.

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And it's like in the old days.

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I don't know if you're a channel surfer, if you sit at home after a long day's toil

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at 91 in London.

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Productive.

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But you want to watch something.

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And so you go through the channels.

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There's nothing there.

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Click, click, click, click, click.

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In the old days, it used to be court jesters.

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You'd sit there, and a number of court jesters would be waiting in the wings.

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And you'd say, right, you're on.

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Go and make him laugh, will you?

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And he dances around and does some juggling and whatever, and the emperor

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claps.

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And so it goes on.

19:12

Some are rubbish.

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What he does with the cabinet meeting, he goes, right, you.

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And they say, Mr.

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President, I just want to thank you for doing everything you said you'd do in

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this.

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And this sycophantic spew of praise.

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It's just like that.

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And I don't know.

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Again, I can't see leaders of the past doing that, and I can't help but be

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annoyed.

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I'm going to have to go and see someone about it, I think.

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Clearly.

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So we've got to ask ourselves, yeah, I get that, and that's the reaction of a lot of

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people. They scratch their heads and think, you know, this is, well, I mean, this is the

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kind of behavior we'd expect from Putin.

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where sort of some sort of unfortunate general has to come and sort of spout

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nonsense and so forth

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on Russian TV.

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But just think about it a moment. I mean, Stump is, you know, an unusual person.

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He's not a typical politician, et cetera, et cetera.

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Yeah. And. You know, despite the fact that a lot of people, a lot of the electorate in the US,

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you know,

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have your kind of feelings about him, he got elected with a significant majority.

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And so why was that? Well, it's because basically, you know, it's no, I don't think it's just promises.

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I think it's because it's a rejection of the existing political establishment,

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which has, you know, left America vulnerable.

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It's made a lot of poor choices, which has resulted in extraordinary degrees of inequality in the U.S.

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The haves obviously have a lot more. The have-nots basically haven't had it.

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You know, it just hasn't worked for them for many years.

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So globalization, you know, has been great for the few.

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It has been less great for the majority.

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And this is a rebalancing and this is a rejection of the existing political order.

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And, you know, that's put a populist, a demagogue like Trump in power,

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whereas previously he wouldn't have stood a chance.

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Before we get on to what to do now, Philip, the most important part of our

21:18

conversation.

21:20

One of the reasons he got elected is because of the cost of living crisis.

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And even though inflation was coming down, inflation was still there, two and a half,

21:29

three and a half percent, whatever it is.

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And he said, I'm going to bring down the price of eggs. And he had a little table in front of him with lots of different staples and

21:39

biscuits and

21:41

everything else.

21:43

Not that he's ever been in a grocery store, of course, but that doesn't matter.

21:45

I don't mind that whatsoever.

21:47

If I never have to go in one again, it'll be too soon. But the point is that the price of eggs, he keeps on saying, the price of eggs is

21:52

falling. It's not. The price of eggs is as high as it's ever been.

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In fact, in March, it was 6.3% higher.

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I think so. He said, I'm going to make things better and things are going to be cheaper, but he

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hasn't.

22:06

And people forget about that.

22:08

I've got to give him more than 100 days. I mean, you're talking of moving a supertank.

22:13

So, you know, this idea that you can have sort of instant gratification is just sort

22:19

of naive.

22:21

You know, China at least has the has, you know,

22:24

stability in terms of government continuity in terms of government.

22:28

The U.S. is, you know, you've got midterms coming up in two years, less than two years now.

22:35

And then basically, you know, probably lose control of at least one of the

22:39

houses. And then basically another year after that, it's presidential election campaign

22:46

season again.

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So it's really difficult to actually achieve anything. And sure, you know, you've got this.

22:51

He has is using a lot of executive powers in a.

22:57

sort of somewhat dubious way, it has to be said.

23:01

But he's doing that simply because basically it's the only way to get

23:04

anything done,

23:06

given the endemic inertia of the US political system.

23:09

Hence the urgency of doing deals and being seen to make progress and all this kind of

23:15

stuff. I wish him well, Philip. The opportunity to make real changes, you know, is going to narrow pretty

23:23

significantly.

23:25

I wish him well.

23:27

I really, really do.

23:29

I like to be annoyed by him.

23:31

It's a sick sort of perversion that I have.

23:33

But I do agree that he has in his own special little way, some sort of plan

23:36

somehow.

23:38

It's just somebody's got to take him aside, like the Treasury Secretary, and

23:42

say, look, why don't we do this, Mr.

23:44

President?

23:46

I think it's a really good idea you've got.

23:48

But maybe we could just tweak it just a little bit.

23:50

But will they say it?

23:52

I don't know.

23:54

I hope he's successful.

23:56

and I hope you're successful as well.

23:58

at 91 and if so how do you plan to be where does it go from here at the moment as we record this podcast the us

24:01

markets having um a second lovely day yeah so i think that um you know obviously

24:06

markets got

24:08

oversold um you know the reaction to uh to

24:10

what was going on the uncertainty and the sort of poor positioning of market

24:17

participants uh and so you've seen this

24:19

sort of brutal unwinding at positions. And that's now settling down a bit.

24:22

And so really the sort of, you know, we can have a U.S.

24:25

recession or not. And that sort of, you know, rather depends on where we end up tariff wise.

24:32

It depends on the underlying strength of the economy, because we think corporate

24:38

sectors in pretty good shape.

24:40

Actually, consumer balance sheets are in pretty good shape. And of course, the Fed has got a lot of scope to cut interest rates if things get

24:45

weak. So the market, I think, sort of recognizes that...

24:50

You know, we're sort of in this sort of corrective phase and we'll have rallies

24:55

and we'll have relapses and so forth.

24:57

But unless something new comes out of the woodwork, then we're in this sort of

25:01

sideways kind of environment.

25:03

However, there is a big thing going on, and that is that there's far too much

25:08

international crowding in U.S.

25:10

assets.

25:12

Foreign investors basically had thrown the towel in and were being dragged more and

25:17

more into US assets as

25:19

they became larger constituents of the sort of typical indices that people use,

25:23

like the MSCI,

25:25

all countries' world index. And so that now, I think that really what this recent period,

25:34

the significance of it is that it's marked an inflection point.

25:38

in what we labeled as U.S.

25:40

exceptionalism, you know, exceptional relative outperformance, you know,

25:46

that had been seriously overdone.

25:48

So we're now seeing basically a sort of rotation out of U.S.

25:53

assets, a rebalancing, if you like, as international investors sort of, you know,

25:58

rebalance their risk exposures.

26:01

And you're also seeing a rotational move within markets and the stocks that really

26:07

benefited from

26:09

the sort of hyper-globalized world, you know, they're the ones that are

26:14

potentially looking vulnerable now.

26:16

So we have hit an inflection point. You know, we may be in a corrective phase for markets for some months now.

26:23

But coming out of that, I suspect that, you know, the Chinese are going to

26:28

stimulate more.

26:30

The Europeans are already stimulating their economies to sort of offset the

26:34

effect of tariffs and so forth.

26:36

And also to address the problem of you know, sort of sluggish, very sluggish

26:38

growth.

26:40

Energy prices are coming down.

26:42

That's actually quite constructive. So I think we will come out of this funk, you know, whatever, you know, however,

26:50

you know, whatever Trump's rhetoric. And I think he will continue to fascinate you, I'm sure.

26:55

He will keep you glued and channel hopping to make sure you get your daily dose of

27:00

Trump. Oh, yes, please. And but we are.

27:05

Sort of, you know, the hysteria of the level of uncertainty is going to reduce.

27:11

Volatility is likely to reduce.

27:13

We will have some tariff deals, I suspect.

27:17

We've passed peak tariffs and the world will not come to an end.

27:23

So it's time to maybe tentatively have a look at the ground because you're already

27:30

sitting on the fence at the

27:32

moment.

27:34

Tentatively look at stepping off that fence.

27:36

dipping your toe into the water, would you say that selectively, of course?

27:40

Yeah, I mean, I think that you, you know, a lot of US assets are heavily oversold

27:45

now.

27:47

And so what we're seeing is we're seeing basically a sort of rebound from those

27:51

oversold positions.

27:53

And a lot of the moves we've seen have been driven by short term market

27:57

operators.

27:59

And, you know, that have been squeezed and wrongly positioned.

28:02

Obviously, you know, often with high levels of leverage.

28:04

So you get these weird market movements.

28:07

So bond yields going up was obviously not what the resistance was saying.

28:13

And you heard all about the sort of basis trade unraveling and so forth in bond

28:17

markets. So I think that phase has gone. Markets have been, you know, positions have been cleaned out.

28:23

And so it's now, you know, longer term investors are going to be looking at this

28:29

and thinking, Well, we...

28:31

probably got too much in the way of US exposure. So they're going to be selling rallies.

28:35

And there will be rallies, pretty powerful rallies, to be seen.

28:40

And, you know, but I suspect, basically, they won't be followed through.

28:45

And then if you look at China and Europe, you know, by and large, a lot will depend

28:50

on, you know, the level of stimulus,

28:52

whether markets are prepared to look through it.

28:54

And then, of course, obviously, there's considerable scope for sort of interest

28:58

rates to come down further, not just.

29:00

in the US, but the Chinese is in a position.

29:05

ECB cut rates the other day. The Bank of England will probably cut rates next month when it meets.

29:10

So you've got this sort of synchronized global reduction in short-term interest

29:17

rates, which ultimately is going to underpin growth.

29:19

So I think we come out of this.

29:21

It just depends on basically what level of weakness we've got to actually sort of get

29:26

through in the

29:28

nearer term.

29:30

Saunders with his soothing words.

29:32

Philip Saunders is Director at the Investment Institute at 91 in London. The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay

29:41

Williams and various contributors and do

29:43

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29:46

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30:00

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