0:05

And now from the University of

0:07

Hago Institute of Politics and

0:09

CNN Audio, The Ax files,

0:12

with your host, David Axorod.

0:18

Major Garrett, chief Washington

0:20

correspondent for CBS News, has been covering

0:23

government and politics and print and on TV

0:25

for decades. I did a podcast

0:27

with him a few years back about his life and

0:29

career, but I wanted to get together with him

0:32

again this week. to talk about the trials

0:34

of American democracy a week

0:36

before a portentous midterm election.

0:39

And the book he recently co authored, The

0:41

Big Truth. upholding democracy

0:44

in the age of big lie. Here's that

0:46

conversation.

0:53

Major Garrett, it's great to see

0:55

you again, my friend. We meet at

0:58

a port dentist. time

1:01

one week before or six days

1:03

before the big midterm

1:06

election. So who better

1:08

to who better to speak with

1:11

than you at a time like

1:13

this. We've been through many of these together. We

1:15

have You you have written

1:17

a book the big truth of holding democracy

1:20

in the age of the big lie. You did this

1:22

with a with David Becker who's an

1:24

expert on election. on

1:27

election administration and a lot of these

1:30

issues. I wanna talk about that,

1:32

but I wanna talk about it in

1:34

the context of this

1:35

midterm election because this is sort of

1:37

-- Mhmm. -- the shadow that's hanging over

1:41

these elections. And

1:46

So be

1:48

be and anybody who wants to know

1:51

major stories should go back and listen to our

1:53

last podcast together

1:55

because he has a deep and rich story

1:57

in journalism and will I wanna talk about the

2:00

the state of journalism

2:01

in political coverage

2:03

as well in this conversation. But

2:06

give me your sense of

2:09

of where we are six days out before

2:12

these midterm elections, and I'll I'll share

2:15

mine.

2:16

So I was just in Santa Fe, New Mexico over

2:18

the weekend, and I talked to California governor

2:20

Gavin Newsom, who

2:21

was there on behalf of the Democratic governor,

2:24

Michelle Lou van Grisham.

2:26

And he's not doesn't have a close reelection

2:28

race, but he was there because she does. And that's

2:30

kind of a surprise. And I said, are

2:32

Democrats on defense? He said, yeah.

2:35

And

2:35

said does it feel to you like a red wave?

2:37

He said, yes, it does. He said,

2:39

I'm not paid to say that I'm supposed to be the

2:41

cheerful optimist, but I'm also pregmatist.

2:43

He said, I'm looking at the data, but can also feel

2:45

it. I said, what does it look like in California?

2:48

He said there are four house races in California

2:51

that five or six weeks ago weren't competitive,

2:54

but

2:54

are now. That's

2:57

just one voice, but governor

2:59

Newsom I just

3:00

gone through recall election in California

3:02

a year ago, so he is

3:04

in the midst of this environment.

3:08

He lived through it. He prevailed in that recal with the

3:11

help of a lot of democrats nationally. He poured

3:13

a lot of money and a lot of attention into that race.

3:15

he pulled through. He's now in a much better

3:17

political position, but he's scanning the sort of

3:19

horizon. And he feels like

3:22

the shift that has begun to exhibit

3:24

itself in polls is very real.

3:27

And in the last week or two, inflation,

3:29

public safety, the persistent

3:32

issue of immigration which among Republican

3:34

voters and some swing voters simply never

3:36

goes away are coalescing

3:39

to counter what was for

3:41

two or three months substantial grassroots

3:44

energy within Democrats in

3:46

reaction to the DOP's decision over

3:48

turning row versus weight. As you know, David,

3:51

there is an ebb and flow in political conversations,

3:53

there's an ebb and flow in momentum. And

3:56

after the mob's decision, democrats

3:58

who were really, really down on the dumps Biden's

4:00

numbers were way down, they didn't seem to have any

4:02

Either messaging or set of accomplishments

4:05

they could point to got a little bit of a message,

4:07

put some accomplishments up on the board, and

4:09

began to narrow the gap and felt

4:12

that there was a possibility of

4:14

pushing back against what looked like

4:16

a red tide or a red wave. That

4:18

optimism has begun to diminish, That's

4:21

certainly I think of the case more precisely

4:23

in house races. think in senate

4:25

races, it's very close, but I don't need to

4:27

tell you, David, you've lived this on both sides of

4:30

the equation. there are sometimes

4:32

when an

4:33

atmosphere or a wave

4:35

ticks over ten or fifteen

4:37

races just by

4:39

the hair's breath. And that's

4:42

the Mhmm. -- dimensional

4:44

difference between a huge wave

4:47

and something that looks more statistically

4:49

normal in the first midterm election

4:52

after a change in the presidency. I think we're

4:54

in that in between space. I think Republicans

4:56

certainly can imagine

4:59

a scenario in which they pick up fifteen to

5:01

twenty house seats. They can also imagine

5:03

strategy and they're putting money on

5:05

a lot of races that are at the margins where

5:08

that could go up to thirty or maybe thirty

5:10

five. I don't think we're talking fifty or sixty

5:12

or anything like that. in part

5:14

because Republicans in the house

5:16

races won, a lot of races in twenty twenty.

5:19

That was a rejection of president

5:21

Trump. but not Republicanists because

5:23

they did well down ballot. On

5:25

the senate races, I think Nevada is very

5:27

difficult for Democrats. Arizona is

5:29

getting closer than Democrats are comfortable with.

5:32

Wisconsin feels like it's slipping away.

5:34

So you're left with Pennsylvania. Georgia

5:36

and then you're suddenly worried about New Hampshire,

5:38

maybe, and maybe Washington. So it just

5:41

feels like the field is expanding before

5:43

Republican's eyes and and receding.

5:45

before democrats eyes? Well, you know, there's

5:47

a certain gravitational force

5:50

that comes in these midterm elections.

5:53

You know, we've talked about this

5:55

I've talked about this many places, maybe not

5:57

here, but, you know, the

5:59

history is very very clear. I

6:01

mean, it is a

6:03

really unusual development

6:06

for a party to be able to resist

6:09

a governing party to resist this tie.

6:11

You talk about ebbs and

6:13

flows. I mean, for the governing

6:15

party, midterm elections are generally

6:18

about ebbs and for the -- Yes.

6:20

-- challenging party. It's all about flows.

6:23

And earlier this year,

6:25

you know, when you looked at

6:27

various elements that you look at, if you were

6:29

clinically looking at something

6:31

like a doctor would look at a chart.

6:33

You'd say, well, direction of the country,

6:36

you know, sharply negative,

6:38

direction of you know, people's

6:40

attitudes toward the economy which were better

6:43

six months ago than they are now, not

6:45

good. President's approval rating

6:47

in the low forties if you

6:49

knew nothing else, you'd look at that and you'd say,

6:51

well, the incumbent party is gonna have

6:53

a rough day. And

6:55

then as you said, the the the

6:58

comes June,

6:59

the Dobbs decision, Donald

7:01

Trump reemerges in a big way,

7:03

the January sixth hearings, he

7:06

embraces candidates who are who

7:08

are quite extreme because he's doing

7:10

it on the basis of whether they'll deny the election

7:12

or not. the last election. So

7:15

he saddled Republicans with some tough

7:17

candidates in places. And

7:21

all of a sudden, there was a sense

7:23

that, well, you know, Democratic

7:25

enthusiasm is up. which

7:28

is really why incumbent parties

7:30

lose midterms is that their enthusiasm isn't

7:32

as great as the party who is

7:35

wanting to express their grievance. And

7:39

but what happened in September

7:42

was that The Republican

7:44

committees, which are much better funded

7:47

than the Democratic committees. Democratic candidates

7:49

are better funded generally than Republican

7:51

candidates. Yes. They raise money more readily

7:53

from the grassroots. But

7:55

these committees get money from corporate

7:57

donors and large donors and

8:00

they came roaring in, in September, with

8:02

ads about crime, and ads about

8:05

the economy, and

8:08

those had an impact.

8:10

you know, and the

8:12

distance from Dobbs, the distance from

8:14

some Democratic legislative victories in

8:16

the summer have, you know,

8:18

Biden's numbers have they

8:20

were moving up for a while. They're now

8:22

sort of settled. They're moving down. And

8:26

here we are, you know,

8:28

a week for this. And it feels a little bit

8:30

like we are back where we were

8:32

in the spring.

8:33

where the natural forces

8:35

that you anticipated are taking,

8:38

whole gravity is having it say. And I

8:40

think that's another dimension to this David,

8:42

and I've been talking to a lot of people who are working

8:44

in the field in a lot of these campaigns and

8:46

knocking on doors and doing the canvassing

8:48

and the direct voter contact. And Many

8:51

of them are are Democrats, some are

8:53

Republicans, and the Republicans are telling me,

8:55

look, we were doing this work in twenty eighteen and twenty

8:57

twenty. Twenty eighteen, it was really, really hard.

9:00

There was such a reaction against Trump.

9:02

It was very hard to make any way headway at

9:04

all. Twenty twenty was sort of a little

9:06

bit different, but in both instances, Though

9:08

swing voters, particularly in the suburbs and the

9:10

X Serbs, which are different places but equally

9:13

important, they certainly were in twenty twenty.

9:16

felt that their economic situation and

9:18

their public safety orientation was such

9:20

that they could make a more personalized

9:22

decision about what they preferred. Now

9:25

because their economic situation is

9:27

noticeably different, inflation is

9:29

in front of their eyes every day.

9:31

If they're looking at their four in one case, if they have

9:33

them, they have taken a hit. And

9:35

the idea about public safety and you could have

9:37

a statistical argument about By order of

9:39

magnitude, how much worse is it than it was

9:42

in the seventies and eighties? Or you can

9:44

say is it more worse in red states or blue states

9:46

doesn't matter. when public safety cuts,

9:48

it usually cuts deeper than almost

9:50

any other issue other than the economy. And

9:53

so those things are combining to

9:55

take away that sort of well I feel

9:57

comfortable

9:57

economically. I feel public safety

9:59

comfort. Therefore, I'm gonna make this a Biden

10:02

or Trump. And who do I like better? Now it's more

10:04

like What

10:05

am I satisfied or dissatisfied with?

10:07

And that dissatisfaction seems

10:10

to be trending toward Republicans and

10:12

it's part of this underlying atmosphere.

10:15

And one other thing I would say, look at Nevada,

10:18

maybe other states, but Nevada, in particular

10:20

to me, feels like a state where

10:22

we could describe something like long

10:24

political COVID. Long

10:26

COVID is a diagnostic description of

10:28

a long illness related to a COVID

10:31

infection. But I think there's gonna be

10:33

a

10:35

sense of in places

10:37

like Nevada where the governor Cecilac

10:39

is working really hard.

10:42

Democratic governor. Yeah.

10:44

Democratic governor working really hard. He's got

10:46

great ads about sports and jobs and all things

10:48

he's done, but there's an undertow, especially

10:52

in Nevada, about lockdowns and their

10:54

economic effect. And I think

10:56

in a couple of other places, you're going to

10:58

see a kind of

11:00

long COVID aspect as

11:02

part of if

11:05

Democrats, laws, and Republicans prevail.

11:08

Not universally and not nationwide, but in

11:10

certain places that will be under

11:12

toe of its own.

11:13

Yeah. Listen, there

11:15

are a couple of stats that I think

11:18

sort of that that should be

11:20

big red flashing lights for

11:22

Democrats in

11:24

addition to the statistics that I

11:26

shared, you know, three quarters thinking the country's

11:28

on the wrong direction. Three quarters thinking

11:31

the economy is bad, Biden

11:33

in the low forties. But

11:37

the the Wall Street Journal poll this

11:39

morning, and I really respect that

11:42

poll because John Anzalone

11:44

is as good as there is on the Democratic side,

11:47

Tony for Brasil as good as there is on the

11:49

Republican side. and they report

11:51

a fifteen point shift from August among

11:53

suburban women who, as you know, are

11:55

a very big target of

11:58

both parties. Absolute earthquake.

12:00

Yeah. Now I think

12:02

that, you know,

12:03

as you look at state polls across

12:05

the country, that number may be somewhat

12:07

exaggerated, but the trend is not.

12:10

And that is that that that

12:12

should be a real

12:15

concern for for

12:18

Democrats. And then the other hasn't been

12:20

reported, but I talked to a poster that I

12:22

respect who's been pulling all over

12:24

the country. And he told me that The,

12:28

you know, there's a small group of undecided voters,

12:30

but a lot of these races will be

12:32

decided by how

12:35

those voters break at the end because they're

12:37

very, very close. They're marginal races.

12:40

Biden has an eighty eighty

12:42

six percent, eighty five percent disapproval

12:44

rating among those voters. So,

12:48

you

12:48

know, the likelihood of them tipping in the Democratic

12:51

direction is pretty small.

12:53

So all that, you know, you add up and you say, this

12:56

this may be like a typical midterm

12:59

election when conditions are

13:02

are not good. And as you say, the house

13:04

losses may be limited somewhat

13:06

by the fact that we're

13:09

we're, you know,

13:10

we've already Republicans

13:12

have already you know, they're only

13:14

five seats away from taking the majority.

13:17

So that, you know, there's but

13:19

but still, you know,

13:21

their dreaming of numbers in the thirties

13:24

and that wouldn't have been the case

13:26

six weeks ago.

13:28

No, of course not. Now, having

13:30

said all that, The midterm votes will

13:32

be cast and counted. Elections

13:34

will be certified, winners will be

13:36

identified,

13:37

And

13:39

then there'll be a reassessment. And

13:41

if it's a Republican house and Republican

13:44

senate, president Biden is gonna have a completely

13:46

different matrix. and the idea

13:48

of Republicans in power and

13:50

what that looks like and how

13:52

that does or doesn't

13:54

resemble

13:55

A pre Trumpian return to the White House

13:57

will change the political dynamic again. That

14:00

is right now an abstraction. After

14:02

the selection, if Republicans prevail, in

14:04

the House and Senate, it will no longer be an abstraction.

14:06

It will be real. And the Democratic

14:08

orientation to that and the country's orientation

14:11

to that will be the next after effect

14:13

and the political,

14:14

tides, will

14:15

begin to shift because of that as

14:17

well. None of this is static.

14:19

on that point. I'll come back

14:21

to the election. You and I,

14:25

we became closely appointed

14:27

back in the early years of the Obama

14:29

administration when you were the you were the White

14:31

House correspondent for

14:34

for Fox News. And

14:37

you so you covered the two

14:39

thousand and ten

14:41

midterm election from the standpoint

14:43

you know, from the White House Perch

14:47

there.

14:49

How

14:49

I

14:51

mean, are you having any flashbacks? because,

14:54

you know,

14:55

I I still have some I still have some

14:57

tire tracks on my ass from I

15:00

got upgraded for using I have tire

15:02

tracks on my butt.

15:03

from that election

15:06

still that I that are indelibly imprinted.

15:09

Right. So

15:11

Two thousand ten, as you well remember, sixty

15:13

three house seats, it's not gonna be that in

15:15

part because of Rome to Moavus,

15:17

not nearly as high. Because

15:20

in the two two thousand eight election, as you

15:22

also well remember, if you were

15:25

intimately involved in the entire national strategy,

15:28

Yeah. What's the high watermark? Yeah.

15:31

High watermark for Democrats in terms of the president

15:33

and and what what the

15:36

number of house seats gained, senate seats,

15:38

and

15:40

the midterm elections in twenty ten.

15:42

There

15:44

was a lot of room for Republicans to grow

15:46

and

15:46

grow they did. And

15:49

that's not gonna be true this time.

15:52

but

15:52

one thing that will be somewhat

15:55

similar will

15:56

be this idea of

16:00

kind of Republican

16:02

grassroots.

16:05

Rebellion

16:05

is too strong a word, but

16:07

pushback. on a on a

16:09

sort of unified set of issues and

16:12

a repetitive pounding

16:14

narrative about what's wrong with the country.

16:17

which was also prevalent in twenty ten.

16:19

Of course,

16:19

the economic situation was much

16:22

different. What president

16:23

Obama inherited in two thousand nine

16:25

people forget. I know you don't. Yeah.

16:28

No. But the month the monthy took office, if

16:30

I recall correctly, seven hundred fifty thousand Americans

16:32

lost their jobs. Yeah. I think the it was closer

16:34

to eight. Yeah. I only had eight hundred thousand.

16:36

It was, you know I we were confronting

16:39

every single day for several months

16:41

after we took off as the

16:44

the the possibility of a second grade

16:46

depression. So it was a different you

16:48

know, people lost their homes, people lost their

16:51

jobs. And no.

16:53

It was a different

16:54

kind of crisis. This is an odd economic

16:57

situation. because unemployment is at

16:59

historic lows. so odd. Yes.

17:02

Yeah. Employment is at historic

17:04

lows. Wages are up, but they're not keeping

17:06

pace with inflation. There is

17:08

a tremendous I know this because

17:11

y three grown children are in the job market.

17:13

There is a hunger out there for workers, skilled

17:15

workers, and unskilled workers. So

17:17

it's not as if you can't get a job in America.

17:20

And it's not as if once you get a job, your

17:22

wages haven't risen in the last year and after

17:24

they just haven't kept pace with inflation.

17:27

And we don't have stagflation. It's

17:29

not a kind of an economy that is

17:32

circling the drain. this

17:34

idea of a recession, yes,

17:36

it's talked about, but

17:38

it's not a practical reality.

17:40

most people But but but

17:42

in the polling, you see people

17:44

It shows on the chart, people believe believe

17:46

that we are in recession. And

17:49

you can't talk people out of what they believe.

17:51

Exactly. That that's what I wanted

17:53

to say. You know, I wanted to say, welcome

17:55

to my world. When I was doing this work,

17:57

you know, what we learned was it didn't

17:59

matter how much objective progress

18:02

you were making. If people did not feel it

18:04

in their lives, if they felt

18:06

if they felt otherwise, that, you

18:08

know, trying to persuade them

18:11

otherwise was actually a

18:13

losing political strategy that

18:16

made you look out of touch and

18:19

made you look in disingenuous.

18:22

And so mean, this is the thing that

18:24

Biden has confronted here because he wants

18:26

to go out and tout the economic

18:28

progress that's been made since he took off. and

18:30

he's got a case to make. He's cut unemployment

18:32

almost in half, wages

18:35

are up and all of the things that you mentioned. You

18:38

can't really win that argument

18:40

in an environment in which people feel like

18:42

they're being punished by inflation which

18:45

is at a forty year high. By the

18:47

way, also sees the whole

18:49

planet, not just the United

18:51

States of America. So, you know

18:53

-- Right. inflation is higher

18:55

in Britain. I don't think it's Biden's fault

18:58

probably, but but

19:00

nonetheless politics being what

19:02

it is. Oh. If you're sitting in that chair as Harry

19:04

room and said the the buck stops here and people

19:06

don't feel the buck is going as far as it used

19:08

to.

19:09

And I wanna make this observation, David,

19:12

because

19:13

I'm actually struck by

19:15

this, what I'm about to say. So

19:18

I'll judge that when I'll judge that when you say

19:20

it here. Yeah. So the president is

19:22

trapped in one lab, one level by the transitory

19:25

nature of inflation, which he's was

19:27

stuck with or said for about months, but that's

19:30

not my big observation. My big observation,

19:32

maybe it's small, is this. I'm

19:34

really perplexed that

19:36

after The

19:37

American Rescue Plan,

19:39

the chips fill

19:41

infrastructure, and the Inflation Reduction

19:43

Act, which is nearly five trillion dollars

19:45

of spending that Democrats drafted,

19:47

understand why they did. There's a programmatic

19:50

reason behind it.

19:52

After all that,

19:55

The

19:55

argument for most voters that I've been traveling

19:57

around the country on my book tours, I'm watching a lot

19:59

of ads on TV is principally about abortion.

20:02

And abortion is a really important

20:04

issue. And privacy rights and everything

20:06

that comes under that umbrella is very important.

20:09

But after five trillion dollars, if you don't

20:11

have a coherent and noticeable

20:16

economic message I'm left sort

20:18

of dumbstruck

20:21

by that.

20:22

It just seems to me a strategic failure

20:25

of democrats.

20:26

They passed this. They had a reason

20:28

set of reasons for passing it. And

20:31

they're not talking about it in ways that feel

20:33

robust, confident, proud, assertive.

20:37

or visionary about it. And I

20:39

don't understand that. I'm literally dumbstruck

20:41

by that.

20:42

Yeah. I think that's gonna be hotly

20:44

debated, you know, after

20:46

this election as to why

20:49

that was. Some of it is

20:51

what I said, which is there

20:53

was this idea that There's

20:55

been this idea that if you

20:58

if you don't talk about

21:00

the economy you

21:02

know, and divert people to to

21:04

other issues that are more favorable

21:06

to Democrats that you can

21:08

win. But it's, you know, it's like

21:10

hey, there's this

21:13

elephant in my living room, you

21:16

know, pun, I guess intended. and,

21:19

you know, you really can't ignore it.

21:22

And the fact is that there was a

21:24

there

21:24

was an there are several arguments major.

21:27

One is that just that

21:29

here's what we have done. The fact is

21:31

that people don't necessarily feel it.

21:33

So that's that's

21:35

an issue. But there's also where the Republicans

21:38

were on these things and

21:41

-- Mhmm. -- and and

21:43

that's an issue. And then there's the one that

21:45

Obama's been out there making, which is

21:47

that, you know, we

21:50

haven't solved all these problems, but we're working

21:52

on it. And while they're working

21:54

on, you know,

21:56

eliminating abortion rights, denying

21:59

the last election impeaching, the

22:01

president, you know, for for

22:04

for offenses to be determined later.

22:07

And -- Right. -- you know, and that, you know, there

22:09

are arguments that could have been made that

22:12

incorporated the

22:14

economic, both the record of

22:16

accomplishment, but also creating

22:19

a contrast and, of course, the the

22:21

task for

22:24

the very difficult task for any governing

22:26

party in a midterm election is

22:28

to turn it into a choice rather than a

22:30

referendum. And

22:34

and, you know, in the summer, it looked like

22:36

Democrats might have the ability to do that.

22:39

But, yeah, there there will be the

22:41

question. Did Democrats become

22:44

too in love

22:47

with the abortion issue

22:49

as a

22:50

as as kind of the

22:53

major cudgel I think

22:55

it will help Democrats. The Democrat enthusiasm

22:57

is up because of it, although --

22:59

No. -- none of these polls. One of the other stats in

23:01

these polls right now, which speaks

23:03

to the primacy of some of these other

23:06

issues is that Democratic

23:08

enthusiasm there's now a gap

23:10

that has turn between Republicans

23:12

and Democrats. We're

23:15

gonna take a short break and we'll be right

23:17

back with more of the ax files.

23:25

This week on Downside Up, a new CNN

23:27

podcast that tries to find answers to the

23:29

most out there, what if questions?

23:31

What would our world look like if

23:33

we'd never invented plastic?

23:36

And what would a few sure without this versatile

23:38

material look like. So

23:40

join us as we turn just about everything

23:42

in our lives, downside up.

23:45

Listen

23:45

to downside up on Apple Podcasts,

23:48

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podcast app.

23:51

It can be a surprise to some folks that

23:53

I live in a small town, like a really

23:55

small town. People wonder, though

23:58

you miss having Postmates or

23:59

a ramen spot around the corner.

24:02

This is town sizing, a podcast

24:05

from HGTV, all about small

24:07

town living. I'm your host,

24:09

Anne Helen Peterson. On downsizing,

24:11

we aim to get to the bottom

24:12

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24:14

exactly is the mystique and

24:16

allure of the American

24:17

town. Listen to town sizing

24:19

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24:27

And now back to the show.

24:34

let me postulate something larger

24:36

because you're a big thinker. I

24:38

I don't think that yeah. I know

24:41

I'm setting the bar high here. You

24:43

know, I'm I really don't think that

24:45

we have recovered

24:47

from we may have recovered

24:49

somewhat from the pandemic. I don't think we

24:51

recover from all the effects of the pandemic.

24:53

You mentioned one that has rippled

24:56

through our our our our political

24:58

political debate, which is the whole closing

25:00

of schools and the disruptions

25:02

particularly for children that

25:05

were caused by the pandemic and weather that

25:07

was all necessary and

25:09

did it go on too long and so

25:11

on? That that is one of them. But I

25:13

think there's something more which is a

25:16

general sense that things are

25:18

just sort of out of sync. They're out of

25:20

control. Mhmm. And

25:24

And, you know, in that context, and I say

25:26

this as

25:28

someone who really admires the president

25:31

who and who thinks he hasn't gotten the

25:33

credit for the things that he's done

25:36

that are substantial. We're gonna be the

25:38

the infrastructure bill will pay substantial

25:40

dividends for generations to

25:43

come. The chip's bill was at least

25:45

a down payment on reinvigorating

25:47

America manufacturing on creating

25:51

a bullwork against China

25:54

on this sense of it on, you know,

25:57

semiconductors and so on.

25:59

I mean, it's it. There were things that he's done.

26:01

You know, the the the the investment

26:04

in climate change

26:06

and so on. These are things

26:09

that will pay dividends

26:12

for a long time to come. not

26:15

getting that credit, but in an environment

26:18

in which people feel things are out of

26:20

control,

26:21

he, at

26:23

the age of eighty, which

26:25

he will I guess, turn this month or next,

26:28

is not a he's not the command

26:30

he's not a commanding figure. And

26:33

that's a caustic kind of mix,

26:35

a sense of things that have control,

26:37

and

26:38

the president whose performances

26:42

are not commanding performances. Not

26:44

as performance on the job, but as performance

26:46

in front of the cameras with you guys.

26:49

So

26:49

there are a lot of issues there. First

26:51

of all, we just did a poll, our CBS

26:53

News battleground tracker poll, and we had

26:56

a question that's very close to what you just observed.

26:59

and it was not the typical

27:02

right track, wrong track question. It was,

27:04

do you feel the country is out of control? and

27:06

David eighty percent said they felt the

27:08

country was out of control. Eighty

27:10

percent.

27:11

And that goes to a

27:13

larger psychic construct. which

27:15

is not right track or wrong track, but do you

27:17

feel a sense of things slipping away? Like,

27:20

you're not even sure if we can hold on.

27:22

And when you get to eighty percent, people wondering,

27:25

can we hold on?

27:26

That's

27:27

that's economic? That's what is the

27:29

structure in resilience of our democracy?

27:32

what is our level of faith

27:34

and confidence in our institutions, and

27:37

this is brings me to the president. He

27:39

is not a vigorous person, rhetorical

27:42

or in person. There are times he's better

27:44

than others. You know that very well, but there

27:46

are times when

27:47

he is painful to watch.

27:50

Now,

27:50

That's

27:51

not an ageist comment. That's just a

27:53

I've watched five presidents

27:55

up close. You've watched more than I have, but

27:57

I've watched them up close. And

27:59

I'm not saying

27:59

he doesn't have the tenacity

28:01

or the will or the capability to

28:03

do the presidency. He clearly does. But

28:05

there is a performative part of the job

28:07

there always has been. George Washington

28:10

knew it. Every occupant of the office knew it.

28:12

Some better than others. And on that

28:14

level,

28:15

he suffers. Now

28:17

he knew he would suffer because he took

28:19

the job at an age when he's not the

28:21

Joe Biden that I covered in the senate

28:23

for

28:23

many many years. There

28:25

are times when he looks

28:27

I'm

28:27

III see him. I see that senator

28:29

from twenty years ago, and there are times that I

28:31

don't, but that lack of vigorousness

28:34

is a drag on

28:36

the entire nation's ability to

28:38

absorb this moment

28:40

and

28:41

ascribed credit for the things

28:43

you just described and that will be part of the Biden

28:45

legacy for however many terms it lasts.

28:47

One or two, the country will be in a

28:49

different place And in many respects,

28:52

I would I would argue positively

28:54

difference be different because Republicans if they

28:56

take control are not gonna get

28:58

rid of most much of what's already happened. They're

29:00

just not. They're gonna do other things, but they're

29:03

not gonna try to pull apart. We

29:04

know this, try to pull apart.

29:06

We know this, because we've seen

29:08

that with Obamacare. You

29:10

lived every one of those wars, David,

29:13

and then you watched them play out for the thirtieth

29:15

vote, the fortieth vote, the fiftieth vote, the

29:17

sixtieth vote. Olin Trump gets it and they get

29:19

control. And I wrote about this in my book, mister

29:22

Trump's wild ride. They tried

29:24

and they fell apart completely because they had

29:26

no approach, politically, or from policy

29:29

to undo Obamacare. They did take one

29:31

component part out of it and the tax ago, but they didn't

29:34

undo it, and they don't even talk about

29:36

it anymore.

29:38

So the ten year cycle of grievance

29:40

and then acceptance, I think, will play out

29:43

for much of the Biden agenda just because

29:45

I've watched that happen with Obamacare.

29:48

Nevertheless, in this moment,

29:50

The president is harmed by his lack

29:52

of vigorousness and there are times when

29:54

he looks less than

29:57

then He

29:59

should be in that role

29:59

that we've come to expect in the television

30:02

era. This idea that the country

30:05

has a control problem and this

30:07

long term sense of

30:10

what was lost during COVID

30:12

I think a lot of things were gained during COVID.

30:14

We talk about mental health much more

30:16

openly

30:17

and with candor and less

30:20

sense of fear

30:22

and stigma. That's

30:23

a long process, but I think that is

30:26

something that came out of this.

30:28

We learned there were a lot collaborative ways and

30:30

adaptive ways. I don't think it was all of that negative,

30:32

but there are memories about it that will be harsher

30:35

than the lived experience. And I think part

30:37

of that will manifest in the midterms.

30:39

Yeah. I mean, and there's, you know,

30:41

another discussion to follow

30:44

because, you know, the post of the story

30:46

yesterday about the election planning

30:48

that

30:49

that the

30:51

president is doing for his reelect. And

30:54

I I will say that, you know, I

30:56

remember the crepe that was

30:58

hung all over us

31:00

in two thousand and ten. and

31:03

the obituaries that

31:05

were being written for Barack Obama, the political

31:08

obituaries after he lost sixty

31:10

three seats in the house in two

31:12

thousand and ten. Two years

31:14

later, he won a resounding victory,

31:18

became the only president since Eisenhower

31:20

to win

31:21

the

31:22

maturities of more than fifty one percent

31:25

twice. So,

31:27

you know, these things are not always predictive

31:29

that the wildcard is the one that

31:31

you suggest, which is, you

31:34

know, I I say all the time the issues are

31:37

for for the issue for Biden is not political,

31:39

he can come back from this

31:41

politically I mean, one thing I wanna talk

31:43

to you about is the implications of a

31:45

Republican Congress and

31:48

how that will play. But the

31:52

the

31:53

the the the promise actuarial and

31:55

just, you know, are the

31:57

things that you are noting? Are they

31:59

likely to get better in the next

32:02

two years? Given the

32:04

grueling nature of the of

32:07

the job. And none of this

32:09

obviates the things we talked about that

32:11

he's accomplished, the leadership he's

32:13

played on the Ukraine issue, and

32:16

pulling the pulling the NATO

32:18

alliance together and would,

32:21

you know, steerly resolve. And

32:25

so, you know, none of that

32:27

none of that obviates none of this obviates

32:29

that, but it's just the reality. And I think

32:32

If Democrats have a bad

32:34

day next Tuesday, these

32:36

discussions are going to be more open.

32:40

because that's the nature of politics. You know,

32:42

it's a brutal unforgiving business.

32:45

And, you know, I've

32:47

I've I've felt that

32:49

the

32:50

as well. But let's

32:53

talk about that because you have covered Congress

32:56

as well as the White House if

32:59

you're sitting in the White House and you're looking

33:01

at these numbers and you're I mean, I think

33:03

that at this point,

33:06

And look, I I could end up

33:09

being wrong about this. That's,

33:11

you know, the great thing about democracy. People

33:13

get their say and we shouldn't prematurely

33:16

judge it, but it seems

33:19

the

33:20

seems very, very likely Republicans

33:22

will control at least the house.

33:25

and and very possibly the Senate,

33:29

but certainly the House come

33:31

the next election come

33:34

come next January. What does that mean

33:36

for for Biden? And if you were sitting in the

33:38

White House, what would you be thinking and planning

33:40

for?

33:41

So the first thing I would

33:43

be

33:44

circling is what could I get

33:46

done in the lame duck

33:48

session?

33:49

What is doable What

33:50

is permissible? Is there anything

33:52

through one more reconciliation bill

33:55

that can happen on fifty vote majority

33:57

in the Senate that I can eke through? and

33:59

I can

33:59

get through the parliamentarian if are any component

34:02

parts of immigration that you can deal with there.

34:06

Can you resolve and get

34:08

agreement on a debt ceiling extension

34:11

that, if not in perpetuity,

34:13

but puts that out of immediate danger

34:16

zone.

34:16

Now, I

34:17

can understand a cynical argument. No. Let

34:19

Republicans prove their

34:22

extremist tendencies right off the bat

34:24

and let them walk into the box Canyon of

34:26

a debt ceiling crisis. Look,

34:29

I've lived through more than one debt ceiling crisis.

34:31

They're no fun. And

34:35

if I'm in the White House for the good

34:37

of the country, for the good of my presidency,

34:40

and for the good of financial markets,

34:42

not just in America, but globally.

34:44

And

34:44

at a time when Putin is trying to use

34:46

as savagely as he can, what remaining

34:49

economic global impact he

34:51

still has. I don't

34:52

want a death crisis for the United States. I wanna

34:54

try to resolve that in the

34:57

land dock if possible.

34:58

Then I know the investigations are coming

35:00

and I But

35:01

let me just stop let me just stop here one second

35:03

there because one of the variables

35:06

here is the impetus for

35:09

Mitch McConnell. Yeah. We got a lot done

35:11

in two thousand and ten during the lame duck

35:13

session in part because McConnell knew

35:15

what was coming on the house side. and

35:18

he understood what he couldn't what he wasn't

35:20

gonna be able to get done

35:21

the

35:23

on the house side once

35:25

that new crap of

35:27

of, you know, more

35:29

populist, right wing members

35:32

came. And so he wanted to get

35:34

a lot of things done extending the tax cuts

35:36

and you know, a a number of

35:38

other things. The question here is

35:40

does he feel that same sense of he

35:42

knows what it would mean to

35:45

to breach the debt ceiling. I mean, that

35:47

would be an economic catastrophe.

35:50

Would he you know, how hard

35:52

will he work to try and resolve

35:54

a bunch of this stuff before that new group

35:57

comes in. because he's gonna be, you know,

35:59

if if whether McConnell's a

36:04

I keep thinking if he's gonna be the majority

36:06

leader, he'll celebrate on

36:09

the night that he becomes the majority

36:11

leader when the votes are clear. And

36:13

then he's gonna be the dog that caught the car

36:15

because he's gonna have to handle all the stuff

36:17

that these

36:18

folks in the house send over, and there

36:20

could be some really crazy stuff. Yeah.

36:23

think this is why he want and this is

36:25

why he likes the filibuster because in

36:28

part because it gives them a chance to say, hey,

36:30

I just you know, like, we got a filibuster here.

36:32

I can't do

36:33

anything about it. I

36:34

can't do anything about it. So I think the the

36:37

the the most The

36:37

the next most important thing, and I would imagine

36:40

the White House is already working on this because Ron claims

36:42

is no dummy, neither Steve Roschetti or all the other

36:44

people around the president. They're looking at a lame

36:46

duck strategy. What can you salvage? What

36:48

can you protect? What can you advance?

36:51

And what could be a productive and

36:53

busy lame duck session?

36:57

because

36:57

you basically are saying

36:59

what is doable that can be

37:01

built on for the next two years while Republicans

37:03

run into the house. or the house in

37:05

the senate. Then you know the investigations are

37:08

coming and you buttress and reinforce

37:10

the White House Council's office, you

37:12

get every cabinet

37:14

agency understanding what

37:17

the prerogatives are, what the

37:18

requirements are, and you

37:20

probably go

37:23

back to some

37:25

of the tools that the Trump White House

37:28

used to push off Congress even though

37:31

You know those were

37:34

institutionally

37:34

harmful you might be

37:36

tempted to

37:37

use them. meeting to say I don't have to

37:39

respond in this congressional request

37:41

because I'm the president even though it's

37:43

legitimate oversight request.

37:46

The Trump administration pushed back aggressively

37:49

on that altering all of those fundamental

37:51

understandings between

37:53

executive and and legislative branch.

37:56

This brings me back to my book

37:59

in which I

37:59

warn everyone who indulged

38:02

you. doing all my segues for me here.

38:05

who indulges in election denialism and

38:07

thinks, well, I have agreements about

38:09

whatever election is and that will never

38:11

spread. It will spread.

38:15

Just as these ideas

38:17

of

38:18

smashing into the guardrails of our

38:20

institutions, leaves a mark

38:22

for everyone. It doesn't leave just a

38:24

mark for you.

38:25

Well, listen, one of the things that

38:27

that is always concern

38:30

me is that every norm you break

38:32

is hard to reassemble. Every

38:35

norm that shattered is hard to put back

38:38

together. and we've seen one

38:40

after another norms shattered

38:43

and there is pressure on

38:45

both sides. Right? There's pressure from

38:47

the Democrats. I'd say why are we why are we

38:49

playing

38:50

why are we playing touch

38:52

football when they're playing tackle? you

38:54

know, but or

38:57

or Mad Max or whatever. Yeah. We're

39:00

gonna take a short break, and we'll be right

39:02

back with more of the ax buns.

39:10

Hey, it's David Ryan here. I wanted

39:12

to tell you about a special episode of CNN

39:14

One Thing on Sunday, November sixth.

39:16

We're gonna get you ready for the midterm elections

39:19

and lay out what's really at stake here.

39:21

We've got reporters fan out across the country

39:23

talking to voters following the biggest races,

39:26

so I'm gonna call them up and ask them what they've

39:28

been hearing. Again,

39:29

the podcast is CNN one

39:31

thing. listen on Apple Podcasts Spotify,

39:33

iHeartRadio, or your favorite podcast

39:35

app.

39:39

It can be a surprise to some folks that

39:41

I live in a small town, like a really

39:43

small town. People wonder, though

39:45

you miss having Postmates or

39:47

a ramen spot just around the corner. This

39:50

is town sizing. A podcast from

39:52

HGTV all about small town

39:54

living. And I'm your host, Anne

39:56

Helen Peterson. On town

39:58

sizing, we aim to get to the bottom

39:59

of one question. What

40:02

exactly is the mystique in allure

40:04

of the American small town? Listen to town

40:06

sizing from HGTV wherever you get

40:08

your podcasts.

40:15

And now back to the show.

40:21

Let's talk about your book and

40:24

the big truth upholding democracy in

40:26

the age of the big lie. And just to kick that

40:28

discussion off because this is a

40:30

central concern here.

40:33

CNN had a poll today and

40:36

It was a fifty fifty

40:39

split. People of people

40:41

who said they think

40:43

the election will be that

40:46

they have faith in the results of

40:48

this election, that they will believe the results

40:50

of the midterm elections And,

40:52

you know,

40:54

democrats were far more, you

40:56

know, sixty seven percent of democrats said,

40:58

yes, I will have I will trust the

41:00

results of the election, which I think is low, by

41:02

the way. But

41:04

six but sixty six percent of Republicans

41:07

say they will not. And -- Right.

41:09

-- and let's know. And

41:11

yes. Yes.

41:13

So this has now become

41:15

the norm. And by the way, this has

41:18

gone viral globally. You know, you see

41:20

in Brazil, we there was an

41:22

election the other day. and

41:25

the incumbent who's an ally of Trump

41:27

has not, you know, he he has

41:29

not yet conceded the

41:32

election. I mean, this is worldwide.

41:34

I mean, what happens here, especially

41:37

in democracies, sets

41:40

sets of patterns. So that's

41:43

the context in which I wanna I wanna

41:46

ask you about this book. First of all, tell

41:48

me about why you guys wrote

41:50

it. And I know part of it is rooted

41:53

in your own sort of passion for

41:56

this this process that you've covered

41:58

for for decades.

41:59

The greatest privilege of my life, David, was

42:02

to rise to level where I could cover national

42:04

politics. It was to dream I had as a child

42:06

and to watch

42:08

and observe American

42:11

sort out issues and advance the American

42:13

experiment. been

42:15

the greatest experience of my life, and I love our

42:17

country, I love its flaws, I love its strengths.

42:21

I love everything about it practically.

42:23

and I really wish I didn't have

42:25

to write this book, but I had to

42:28

it was

42:28

a calling. It's probably the only book I've written of the

42:30

five that I've put together that was a calling.

42:33

I made less on this book, I'll probably well, on the

42:35

advance, certainly. I have several orders of magnitudes

42:37

in any book that I've ever written because

42:40

people were not that interested in the idea

42:42

the original concept was just to write

42:44

a book, thinking, and kind of

42:46

a love letter to election administrators who

42:48

in twenty twenty did something amazing. What

42:51

did they do?

42:52

They put together an election

42:54

which saw the largest turnout of

42:56

any election in our nation's history with

42:58

the most diverse electorate ever. Twenty

43:00

million more Americans participated in twenty

43:03

twenty than in Twenty sixteen. We

43:05

had more paper ballots than any election in

43:07

our history, ninety five sent about ballots were

43:09

cast on paper. We

43:11

adapted in ways that were

43:14

without precedent

43:16

or without roadmap, We

43:17

achieved all these things with a global

43:20

pandemic raging and no vaccines,

43:23

and election administration work is by

43:25

very nature intimate. It's up

43:27

close. You don't have to vote in person,

43:29

but election administrators have to work in

43:32

person eventually. We

43:34

trained four hundred thousand new

43:36

Americans as poll workers David

43:38

in twenty twenty twenty, and we did so almost

43:40

entirely overstune. Election

43:43

administration mean working a precinct, working

43:45

a polling area, working a fold

43:48

counting area is very precise

43:50

work, you have to understand where to go and how to

43:52

maneuver things. Learning all that over Zoom is much

43:54

much difficult, much more difficult than learning

43:56

it on the scene. But because of health

43:58

risks, and adaptations, much

44:01

of this education had go through via

44:03

Zoom. My eldest daughter was

44:05

one of those four hundred thousand. She was a poll

44:07

worker in twenty twenty for the first time.

44:09

She was part of a generation of Americans

44:12

who stepped into this void. Why was there

44:14

a void? Because most of

44:16

all pool workers, David, as you well know,

44:18

are aged fifty, sixty, seventy, and eighty.

44:21

Hello,

44:21

what was the most vulnerable, aged

44:23

population to COVID.

44:26

So they opted out understandably for

44:28

health reasons and

44:29

for a time,

44:30

a terrifying time David made June,

44:32

July In twenty twenty, election

44:34

administrators did not know

44:37

if they would find the Americans who would step

44:39

up and do this work, and

44:40

they did. and

44:43

we did this thing, David,

44:46

that

44:46

his Americans growing up in this country

44:48

that was born in nineteen sixty two

44:51

We universally celebrated what are those

44:53

things? Ingenuity, commitment,

44:57

collaboration,

44:59

cooperation, stick to itiveness,

45:01

not accepting no for or failure is

45:03

an option. Doing something

45:05

under a hard and flexible deadline and

45:07

meeting the test of the time.

45:08

Democrats

45:10

did that, independents

45:12

did that, Republicans did

45:14

that, African Americans did, Hispanic

45:16

Americans, white Americans, Asian Americans,

45:20

we all acted

45:22

in

45:22

a way to

45:24

further

45:26

our American experiment.

45:29

And

45:29

a third or

45:30

maybe a forty percent of this country

45:33

after everything I just said and

45:35

everything that is provably true,

45:37

visibly true, verifiably true,

45:40

believes instead, some

45:43

kind of crime was committed. And

45:46

it's a dichotomy

45:49

that wrenches every

45:51

fiber of my being. Yeah.

45:54

Well, I mean, and

45:55

obviously, endures to this day,

45:57

seventy percent of Republicans say,

46:00

that they feel

46:02

that Biden was illegitimately

46:04

elected. And this is, you know, I

46:07

mean, like I said,

46:08

everything every action causes

46:11

a reaction, you

46:13

know, there's a sort of downward spiral.

46:16

But this is this is sort of fundamental.

46:19

I mean, this is the fundamental bedrock

46:21

of a democracy peep where the people

46:23

get to decide. if people don't

46:26

believe that their that

46:28

their voice was counted,

46:30

that their voice was was

46:33

recorded that the process

46:35

was a sham. Then,

46:38

you know, those people who invaded

46:40

the capital on January sixth.

46:44

A lot of them were just ordinary Americans.

46:46

I mean, they weren't all three percenters and

46:48

all keepers and crowdboys. Okay.

46:51

But they were persuaded that

46:54

some great constitutional crime

46:57

was being committed, and it was their duty

46:59

to be there to prevent it from happening.

47:01

They believe they were protecting democracy. They

47:04

believe the president called them to

47:06

come to defense.

47:08

of

47:08

democracy in the country that they love,

47:10

not all of them. And

47:12

those in the aftermath, there is a whole

47:14

chapter that David Becker and so the audience

47:17

knows David Becker worked in the justice

47:19

department in the voting rights section in

47:21

the in the Clinton Anne Bush years,

47:23

George w Bush, experience in this

47:25

field for twenty five years. I brought him onboard,

47:28

David, because I needed someone who had

47:30

the depth of experience and the clarity

47:32

on the law and the process. to

47:34

help me write with complete conviction in

47:36

that aspect of this space,

47:38

and David helped him measurably in that.

47:42

but we do this work now better than

47:44

we've ever done, and that's to create irony. And

47:47

it's so provable. It

47:49

No one. No. We're all reputting. I said, well, of course, Trump

47:51

won in twenty sixteen, and he did. It

47:53

was close, but he won. About

47:56

seventy three percent of the

47:57

Ballets cast in twenty sixteen were on

47:59

paper, ninety five percent were cast on

48:01

paper in twenty twenty.

48:03

In

48:04

a couple of key states in twenty sixteen,

48:06

there were no paper ballots. so there wasn't

48:08

an auditable trail of voter intent.

48:10

Now we have an auditable audible

48:13

trail of voter intent. We do

48:15

this better And people like, oh, there's

48:17

a ghost in the machine. The counting

48:19

machines will go to Night County, Nevada

48:21

right now. Where Night County is small county

48:23

and The northern part of the state has decided

48:25

we're gonna hand count ballots. Guess what they've discovered.

48:29

Hand counting ballots is very difficult. It's

48:31

time consuming and it's inaccurate. Oh,

48:34

what could the possible remedy of that be?

48:37

How about a machine optical scanner? Like, oh,

48:39

optical scanner it's connected to the Internet? No,

48:41

it's not. and you know what else is an optical scanner?

48:44

The thing that you drop off at FedEx. Do

48:47

you drive your package across the country?

48:49

No, you don't. You give it

48:51

to FedEx and they optically scan it and

48:53

the date is recorded and it gets to the place

48:55

it's supposed to get to.

48:57

It's the same thing. let

48:59

me tell you I have in my office in

49:01

at the University of Chicago, I have

49:04

an ancient ballot box from

49:07

Cook County, from the day when

49:09

all the ballots were on paper. And let me

49:11

tell you if you think that was a

49:13

preventative for fraud you

49:17

are completely

49:17

completely

49:19

wrong. I mean, that

49:21

was in fact facilitator for

49:25

for ballot stuffing and and so on.

49:27

So the the the systems we have

49:29

in place today are much

49:31

different and much

49:34

much more secure. But let me ask you this

49:36

because, you know, we just talked about the

49:39

democrat. The the that what what a

49:41

appears to be a Republican,

49:44

you know,

49:45

whether it's a a flow, a trickler,

49:47

a tide, things seem to be

49:50

moving in their direction relative

49:53

to this midterm election. There

49:55

are literally hundreds of

49:57

and hundreds of candidates around

49:59

this country. By our count of CBS three

50:02

hundred and six. Alright. who

50:04

are who who deny the last

50:06

election. And for some

50:08

of whom that that whole premise

50:11

was the basis of their candidacy.

50:14

And some cases, and some of them

50:16

are running for sector

50:19

of state, for example, where

50:21

you know, and they are running to become

50:24

the administrators of

50:26

elections with the promise that

50:29

they won't certify elections

50:32

that they feel are,

50:34

you know, not kosher.

50:37

by two thousand and twenty

50:39

twenty standards,

50:42

the this

50:44

pretty alarming. Well, so it's more

50:46

virulent. I thought it would die down after

50:48

the January sixth right at the capital.

50:50

It did not. And there are lots of dimensions to

50:52

this. and there are people on this continuum,

50:54

not every one

50:56

of the 306 Republicans who we

50:58

put in the denier category

51:00

And

51:00

was, let's say, was, for example,

51:02

empowered to vote against certifying electoral

51:04

vote. Many did. Some just say I

51:06

have questions about it or I doubt it. some

51:08

go so far Which is which is, by the way, we

51:10

should say,

51:11

had become table stakes to

51:14

sort of the ante to be considered

51:16

in Republican primaries. If you say, no,

51:19

I don't believe it. I mean, we've seen a

51:21

whole bunch of people who had the courage to

51:23

stand up to this who --

51:25

Yes. -- lost their political careers over

51:27

it. Right.

51:28

So, David, I'll I'll talk in in jargon

51:30

that you know very very well. So, I've talked to

51:32

several Republican posters

51:35

and field strategists. So in Republican primaries,

51:38

and this was especially true in Arizona.

51:41

So you know the propensity scale that many

51:43

strategists put together for voters of four

51:45

point scale, 4434241404

51:49

If you're A44 you're gonna show up to every

51:51

primary and general election. You're in. You're locked

51:53

in. You're a voter. You're high propensity. Obviously,

51:56

if you're A04 you almost never show up.

51:58

Well, guess what drives zero fours in one

52:00

force? In the Republican primary right

52:02

now. What drives them? One is one is the

52:05

election denial. Yeah. Yes. and the more

52:07

virulent you are, but the more you're gonna get those

52:09

zero fours and one fours. Well, David,

52:11

in a primary, you're looking for every

52:13

vote possible. And if your rival

52:16

is vacuing up as

52:18

you are, the two, fours, the three, fours,

52:21

what is your strategic point of

52:23

difference? Yeah. Zero

52:25

fours and one fours. Yeah. And

52:27

right now, the mentality and Republican

52:29

primaries is deny

52:31

the election because denial of elections become

52:33

a proxy of your devotion to

52:35

Trumpism. It is no longer

52:38

about evidence or what actually happened.

52:40

That's long since gone away. because

52:43

you cannot have a coherent conversation with

52:45

anyone who's in the denial speech about what

52:47

actually happened. don't even talk about what actually

52:49

happened anymore because every conspiracy

52:51

theory has been completely disproven. All

52:54

they say is I'm with Trump I

52:57

don't trust it, and this is what I believe,

52:59

and I'm entitled to this belief, and

53:01

I'm gonna vote accordingly. And so in

53:03

primaries, it's not just table stakes it's

53:06

the strategic difference between

53:08

defeat and victory in many instances.

53:11

Yeah. I I recorded

53:14

another x files which which

53:16

will will

53:17

run next week with

53:20

a fellow you know Rusty Bowers --

53:22

Mhmm. -- the speaker of the Arizona

53:25

House who stood up to the pressures

53:28

that he he received after the election

53:30

from from president Trump. A deeply

53:32

conservative Republican. very

53:34

much so. Very You at your date, you and

53:36

Rusty do not share very many ideological

53:39

points of comparison or interest. No.

53:41

No. You don't, but you believe in one thing.

53:44

Right. Democracy.

53:44

And he's law and the constitution

53:47

-- Yes. -- he lost his he lost his

53:49

career not to not to not

53:52

to offer a trailer

53:54

of things to come. But he, you know, he

53:56

said when he was talking to Trump in the original

53:58

conversation, Trump and Giuliani, and they were

54:00

saying, well, we think two hundred thousand voters

54:03

were voted e that illegal's

54:05

voted two hundred thousand and Arizona's

54:07

six thousand dead people. you know,

54:10

he and, you know, they went back and forth

54:12

on this. He said,

54:14

you know, he thought, well, you know, I

54:16

mean, they I'm

54:18

gonna do what I think is right. They can't

54:20

hurt me. You know, his

54:22

career is over. He lost his primary

54:24

by thirty points because

54:27

he was considered a traitor

54:29

and because they think the people felt he didn't

54:31

do his constitutional duty.

54:35

And the guy who was his

54:37

nemesis in the Arizona

54:40

House

54:41

the

54:43

I guess it's Mark Finchum.

54:45

Is that the guy's name who is is now the

54:47

Republican candidate for secretary of

54:50

state? One of the most -- Correct.

54:52

-- one of the most virulent election

54:54

deniers, there is, out there.

54:56

Okay. He he is

54:59

in a very, very close contest

55:02

and may well win. And that,

55:04

you know, you have you have candidates in

55:06

other states you know,

55:09

in in in Michigan

55:11

Minnesota, Nevada -- Yep.

55:14

-- you know, who who are espousing

55:16

the same

55:18

the same view. Some of these candidates are gonna

55:20

win. They very well might. And I just want

55:22

the audience to understand a couple of things

55:24

about the Secretary of State position. So

55:28

it will be very very difficult if

55:30

not impossible for a secretary of

55:32

state by himself or herself

55:35

to look at an election result and say

55:37

I by myself

55:39

will overturn that election result. That

55:41

is very difficult. Why?

55:43

Because candidates have legal rights

55:45

and a candidate who won is

55:47

not going to sit idly by and want to secretary

55:49

of state declare them the loser.

55:52

and not take power. They have legal rights

55:55

and they have lawyers, all

55:57

of them will, and they'll go before the bar, and

55:59

they'll present evidence. What secretaries of state

56:01

can do? which is much,

56:03

which as is as harmful over

56:05

the long haul is the prime

56:08

election administrators of results. Meaning

56:10

resources rather, meaning not

56:14

fund them well enough, not

56:16

lean into voter education that provides

56:18

maximum information To

56:20

interpret

56:21

existing laws,

56:23

most harshly so

56:25

things in which a voter makes a mistake

56:27

An honest mistake somehow becomes

56:30

either a prosecuteable description of

56:32

fraud or something that nullifies a ballot.

56:34

And

56:35

lots of Americans show up accidentally

56:37

at the wrong precinct, especially after redistricting,

56:40

or

56:40

they might write a number down incorrectly

56:43

in a application. There it's an honest

56:45

mistake. They're not trying to game the system.

56:47

They're just hectic busy people like

56:49

most Americans are. Secretary of the

56:51

state can weaponize small instances

56:53

like that. and either suppress that vote

56:55

entirely or turn them into make

56:57

believe fraud cases and therefore,

57:00

create an atmosphere around voting that

57:02

is much less accessible and welcoming than

57:05

it ought to. Those things secretary of state

57:07

can do. And if someone like Mark

57:09

Finchham who says there

57:11

is a flaw in the system everywhere, which is

57:13

what he said on sixty minutes, even though

57:16

when Scott Pelling my colleague asked for evidence,

57:18

he

57:19

had very little of it and the things he mentioned

57:21

were of such small

57:23

statistical insignificance as to be

57:26

laughable, he still clings to it.

57:28

And there are others like him.

57:30

Yes. And there's also the question

57:33

and certainly this has come into play in

57:35

Georgia with their new law about

57:37

the ability of legislatures and

57:41

or and or secretary states were

57:43

in tandem

57:45

the

57:46

overruling local election authorities

57:50

and and, you know, who who who

57:53

who displease them. And

57:56

so there there

57:58

is a lot to be

57:59

But let me let me say a couple

58:02

of things. And and this

58:04

is part of the conversation that you may not

58:06

find as as agreeable. So

58:09

we write in the book that the

58:11

one biggest prop Georgia law

58:14

is that investing of power in

58:16

the state legislatures -- Yep. -- to overrule

58:19

county election administrators. Many

58:21

other aspects of that Georgia law

58:25

We're not as harmful.

58:27

As described in the moment I I

58:29

don't find that. I don't find that disagreeable

58:32

major. I said at the time that my concern

58:34

about the Georgia law was about the aspects

58:36

that could lead to voter nullification --

58:39

Mhmm. -- not the aspects. You know, I I mean,

58:41

I do think that what's happened across the country

58:43

is that in reaction

58:46

to

58:46

what is a false hood, the idea that

58:48

the last election was fraudulent that

58:51

all kinds of election laws have been tightened

58:54

under the guise of of dealing with a

58:56

problem. The best success. six percent.

58:58

So I mean but that that that concerns

59:01

me, but this voter nullification stuff

59:03

is really frightening. You didn't know

59:05

that when you cast your vote, your vote is

59:07

going to be counted. precisely.

59:11

Our other observation about the Georgia

59:13

law is when president Biden went

59:15

down and described it as Jim Crow two point

59:17

o, He left himself

59:19

no rhetorical room to look at more restrictive

59:21

laws, like the one in Texas. If you call

59:23

the Georgia law, Jim Crow, two point o,

59:25

you've maxed out. You've

59:28

maxed out on rhetoric. And the

59:30

Texas law and the restrictions therein are

59:32

much worse, much tighter. Texas

59:34

was already a hard place to vote. It became an

59:36

much much more difficult place to vote and

59:38

look at the primary result in March with lots

59:41

and votes. Thousands of votes

59:43

from experienced primary mail in voters

59:45

were nullified because these restrictive

59:47

rules, they couldn't even figure out.

59:49

And my and our point is when you

59:52

do use maximalist rhetoric about

59:54

it,

59:54

place and time that

59:56

doesn't deserve it,

59:58

you

1:00:00

deprive yourself of speaking accurately

1:00:03

and intensely and passionately about something that

1:00:05

is worse, and Texas was worse than Georgia.

1:00:08

And we also David, I don't I

1:00:10

I don't disagree at all. Okay. Okay.

1:00:12

And we also recounted the book that that that

1:00:14

election denialism, though, virulent

1:00:16

and widespread, and article of faith, and many

1:00:18

respects to the Republican Party, Democrats

1:00:21

do not have completely clean hands on this.

1:00:25

We talked about two thousand that was a legitimate

1:00:27

election with a very close margin and a

1:00:29

real Question about voter intent, but

1:00:31

two thousand four, there were a handful, very small

1:00:33

number. No question. John Kerry

1:00:35

did indulge in this, but some Democrats did about

1:00:37

Ohio. That was wrong. Two

1:00:40

thousand sixteen, lots of Democrats

1:00:42

were sore losers, Hillary Clinton conceded, but

1:00:45

the rhetoric around that was dismissive and

1:00:48

undermining of the sense that that was the electoral

1:00:50

result and that was the process that played

1:00:52

out and it played out? Maybe you were deeply

1:00:54

dissatisfied with it. but it was the result,

1:00:56

and we should respect it. And twenty

1:00:58

eighteen, Stacey Abrams never conceded. And

1:01:01

there were issues about that, but those things

1:01:03

contributed and

1:01:06

Republicans use it as a what about

1:01:08

ism when it's not. We're

1:01:10

not saying it's fifty fifty, but it's not

1:01:12

hundred to zero. Yeah. I mean, yeah. I

1:01:14

mean, yes. Yes. You guys point out in the book,

1:01:16

Al Gore,

1:01:18

eloquently -- Yes. -- since he

1:01:20

did that election. John Carey did not

1:01:22

support the objections he did. Which

1:01:24

in fairness were not aimed at overturning the

1:01:26

election. They were aimed at making a point about

1:01:28

access to polling places. Right. So it

1:01:30

was used as a as a, you

1:01:33

know, sort of more of a rhetorical deal,

1:01:35

but nobody was suggesting that -- No. Not

1:01:37

at all. -- that pushed it not when

1:01:39

the election, you know, or or the

1:01:41

fake electors should be should be set from Ohio

1:01:44

or anything like that. And no one should've marsh

1:01:46

no one marshaled outside the capital and ran

1:01:48

out the stairs or anything else. All that is true.

1:01:51

All that is true. The most peculiar

1:01:53

thing that's happened in the last twenty

1:01:55

years is that in twenty twenty

1:01:59

I'm sorry, in two thousand sixteen, Donald

1:02:01

Trump wasn't a sore loser. He was a

1:02:03

sore loser. win winner. Yes. as we pointed out,

1:02:06

you know, he and and contested

1:02:09

the idea that he had lost the popular vote

1:02:11

-- Right. -- and paneled the commission headed

1:02:13

by the vice president that found

1:02:16

nothing. Nothing. Nothing.

1:02:18

Nothing.

1:02:18

Which was a which should have been AAA

1:02:22

warning sign about things to come.

1:02:25

No doubt. No doubt. No doubt.

1:02:26

No. There there is a particular source

1:02:28

of this particular problem, and we are

1:02:30

not ambiguous about who that particular

1:02:33

source of this particular problem is.

1:02:35

So listen, as we

1:02:37

as we close out here, I

1:02:40

think you and I share this passion.

1:02:42

III should ask you quickly, very quickly

1:02:45

before before I get to this

1:02:47

stirring ending here. Mhmm. But

1:02:50

you did work for Fox News for years.

1:02:53

And What what is what is their role?

1:02:55

in all of this as

1:02:57

you watch. Yeah.

1:02:59

Because

1:03:00

they have they

1:03:01

have trafficked in

1:03:03

the

1:03:04

a lot of this, disinformation.

1:03:06

So the honest may

1:03:08

remember, I was there for eight years. I left a September

1:03:10

of twenty ten. It was written about at the time

1:03:13

extensively. It was clear that my

1:03:15

contract was not up. I had more time to

1:03:17

serve under my contract, and I left early.

1:03:19

And

1:03:20

we left aggressively, and that's

1:03:22

a rarity at Fox.

1:03:25

And it is less recognizable to

1:03:27

me, David, than it has ever been.

1:03:30

And What I knew back then,

1:03:33

I still believed to be true in twenty twenty,

1:03:35

that in the polling area of Fox in the decision

1:03:37

desk,

1:03:38

Matrix, they worked very well and

1:03:40

they had a a very good and reliable

1:03:42

set of professionals who did what the

1:03:45

data set. And

1:03:47

in twenty twenty, they made a call that even CBS

1:03:49

didn't make. They called

1:03:51

Arizona. Along with

1:03:53

the AP, CBS did not,

1:03:55

not for days. And

1:03:57

because we were running through the data on our bottles,

1:03:59

but they were right about that. and

1:04:02

Chris Stywal, who's a friend of mine,

1:04:04

was fired over that. Other people were fired over

1:04:06

there for getting it right. I

1:04:08

don't think you need to say anything more about

1:04:10

the current state of any journalistic organization

1:04:13

when getting it right ahead

1:04:15

of the competition is a fireable offense.

1:04:18

Yeah. What else do you need to know?

1:04:20

let me ask you about just

1:04:22

as we close about,

1:04:24

you know, you and I have both we we

1:04:26

we have led parallel lives in the sense

1:04:28

that we were fascinated by this stuff

1:04:30

from a very early age. I'm

1:04:32

the son of an immigrant.

1:04:34

I

1:04:35

I love American

1:04:37

democracy. I'm grateful to

1:04:39

it, but I'm worried.

1:04:42

I'm worried. And

1:04:44

so I get I'm giving

1:04:46

you an opportunity to close on a

1:04:48

on a hopeful note Mhmm. And

1:04:51

yes, we and and you've already celebrated

1:04:53

those countless

1:04:55

citizens who who who

1:04:57

did their job But it feels like

1:04:59

their job is gonna become more difficult

1:05:02

now because you've got, you know, they're

1:05:04

operating under threat, they're operating

1:05:06

under you know, a cloud of suspicion.

1:05:09

Right. So let's

1:05:10

just say, for example,

1:05:13

Republicans win

1:05:15

the governor's race in Oregon, which

1:05:18

is possible. I'm not predicting

1:05:20

that, but it's possible. No. No. No. Very well

1:05:22

may happen. There's a split among Democrats

1:05:24

there. What are Republicans going to say about

1:05:26

mail in voting then? Mhmm. It's

1:05:28

an all the state is mail in voting.

1:05:30

Yeah. I mean, come on. Like I say, oh

1:05:32

my god, it's such great thing. No. No.

1:05:34

What happened is there was a democratic outcome

1:05:37

just as there had been democratic outcomes

1:05:39

that preceded that. that the process

1:05:42

is not your problem. The result is your

1:05:44

problem. Mhmm. And so there's gonna

1:05:46

be moments where Republicans gonna be caught

1:05:48

in their own

1:05:50

rhetorical madness about this problem

1:05:52

that does not exist. Because

1:05:54

when they say, oh my gosh,

1:05:56

I won. How do we know?

1:05:59

Well, because of process yielded a verdict

1:06:01

and confers authority. Well, I thought

1:06:03

she said the process was terrible. Well, no, not

1:06:05

that I've won. and that will Mhmm.

1:06:08

It will illustrate for all to see

1:06:11

the core hypocrisy of this particular

1:06:14

message. and I believe that will have.

1:06:16

Now, I could be a completely

1:06:18

completely do wide

1:06:22

optimist here. But I believe that democracy

1:06:25

has to have a cleansing effect on maybe

1:06:27

it doesn't. And maybe the cynics

1:06:30

are all right. Yeah. They could say they

1:06:32

certainly could say, well, we would have won by more.

1:06:34

Right? Or because we made such a

1:06:36

big fuss about this, it got cleaned

1:06:39

up on our watch. No, it's the same process,

1:06:41

but you asked me to offer an optimistic

1:06:43

appraisal. Let me just say two things. There's

1:06:45

a part of this democratic process,

1:06:48

David, that I overlooked for most of my career.

1:06:51

You know this as well as I do.

1:06:53

election day is a very quiet

1:06:55

day for you and me.

1:06:57

Yeah. It's

1:06:58

the most unnaturally quiet day

1:07:00

of a campaign. And

1:07:02

when I mean when I say overlooked it,

1:07:04

I took it for granted. Why why is it a

1:07:06

quiet day for you and me? Is there's nothing

1:07:08

for us to do? Yes.

1:07:09

You've done all the work The arguments have been

1:07:11

made, and now it's done all parts of

1:07:13

voters. Yeah.

1:07:14

Right. And in that quiet time,

1:07:16

In

1:07:17

that quiet space,

1:07:19

all of the fundraisers,

1:07:22

all the donors, all the grassroots

1:07:24

activists, all the speech writers, all

1:07:26

the strategists, all the policy people,

1:07:28

all the journalists, all my editors, all

1:07:31

the field producers, We're all waiting.

1:07:33

And

1:07:34

in that quiet space,

1:07:36

America

1:07:37

tells us what's going to happen.

1:07:39

We think we're in control.

1:07:42

We think we know what's going to happen because

1:07:44

we've been so close to it. We've been analyzing

1:07:47

it and working through it and sweating and bleeding

1:07:49

for sick eighteen or eighteen or twenty months or whatever

1:07:51

it is. But we in that moment have

1:07:53

zero power. Nothing Right.

1:07:55

-- happens until the

1:07:57

people tell us what happened.

1:07:59

And I overlooked that until just

1:08:02

recently, that quiet time.

1:08:04

Yeah. Well, I'll tell you what, when you're when

1:08:06

you're in campaigns, it's more than quiet. It

1:08:08

agonizing.

1:08:10

Yes. But yeah. But

1:08:12

because you because you because you're waiting in that and

1:08:14

that anticipatory There's something majestic

1:08:17

about about the

1:08:18

that moment, something

1:08:19

but just It is.

1:08:21

It is. It is. Listen. We

1:08:24

will see, and I believe in that moment,

1:08:26

and I believe those moments will continue because

1:08:28

we are not going to end

1:08:30

this experiment. We are not. Well,

1:08:33

thank you for using your voice and your

1:08:35

PIN.

1:08:36

to shine a light on this process

1:08:39

at a very crucial time, and it's always

1:08:41

great to chat with you, my friend. Good to be

1:08:43

with you. Thank

1:08:44

you. It's always a pleasure.

1:08:49

Thank you for listening to the X Files

1:08:51

brought to you by the University of Hago

1:08:53

Institute of Politics and CNN

1:08:55

Audio. The executive producer of

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the show is Alison Siegel. The

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show is also produced by Miriam Finder

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