0:00

hey, welcome to the Bitcoin

0:02

Matrix. I'm your host, Cedric

0:04

Jungleman. In this episode of

0:07

the Bitcoin Matrix podcast, I

0:09

chat with Peruvian Bull,

0:11

a Peruvian American scholar, researcher,

0:13

and educator. We dive

0:15

into Japan's wild monetary experiment

0:17

from carry trades and QE infinity

0:19

to what it's like on

0:21

the ground culturally and economically. We

0:24

also unpack the central bank

0:26

manipulation. the coming currency wars,

0:28

and why Bitcoin might be the

0:30

only way out. If you're

0:32

looking to understand the mechanics of fiat

0:34

collapse, the insanity behind market structure,

0:36

and what the next phase of the

0:38

dollar end game might look like,

0:40

this rip is for you. If

0:43

you want to get in touch

0:45

with me, it's Cedric at TheBitcoinMatrix .com.

0:47

And now, let's enter the Bitcoin Matrix

0:49

with my friend Peruvian Bull. What

0:55

is real? How

0:58

do you define real? You

1:00

can't jump into cash Cash

1:02

is trash What

1:04

do you do

1:06

you get out? Peruvian

1:12

bull is a Peruvian American

1:15

scholar researcher and educator hailing

1:17

from the Pacific Northwest He's

1:19

been blowing up X with

1:21

his bomb threads on the

1:23

US dollar endgame Japan

1:25

and gold Peruvian bull welcome

1:27

back to the Bitcoin matrix podcast.

1:29

How are you? I'm doing great.

1:32

I'm doing great. Just still catching up on

1:34

jet lag from my from my trip

1:36

to Tokyo, but Otherwise doing amazing and thanks

1:38

again for having me on yeah, man.

1:40

I love this is gonna be awesome So

1:42

I let's go right into Tokyo in

1:44

Japan like what were you doing in Tokyo?

1:47

So I was filming a documentary

1:49

about the Japanese yen and the Japanese

1:51

economy and it was luckily sponsored

1:53

by MetaPlanet so the goal of the

1:55

doc was to really do a

1:57

history and deep dive into the Japanese

1:59

you know macroeconomic and financial situation from

2:01

like let's say the mid 80s all

2:03

the way up until now and then

2:06

obviously end it with you know a

2:08

twist of hope for all the financial

2:10

repression and and economics stagnation that they've

2:12

had and so you know we'll include

2:14

a little bit about Bitcoin at the

2:16

end of the dock but really it's

2:18

like a 80 % 90 % just Japanese

2:21

yen Japanese economy documentary that I think

2:23

is it's hopefully gonna come out in

2:25

a few months but I think

2:27

it's gonna be a really good one

2:29

a banger you know let's just start with

2:31

Japan then I mean it seems like

2:33

you learned a lot just even in your

2:35

your time there because I think you went

2:37

in knowing a lot about Japan maybe

2:39

but so I think there's a lot to

2:41

uncover here maybe start with like the

2:43

carry trade Sure,

2:46

sure. And so to understand

2:48

Japan, again, you have to think

2:50

in completely different terms than most

2:52

Westerners are used to, right? Like

2:54

the traditional macroeconomic models just do

2:56

not work there. And Japan has

2:58

been kind of like the playground

3:00

for monetary experimentalism for the last

3:02

30 years. They had

3:05

a massive real estate and

3:07

equity bubble in the mid

3:09

80s that basically blew up

3:11

in spectacular fashion in 1990

3:13

and then there was a

3:15

slow rolling, you know,

3:17

essentially depression throughout the

3:19

1990s, which caused mass

3:21

unemployment, mass suicides,

3:23

mass depression, you

3:25

know, even bank runs in

3:28

late 90s. at

3:30

certain junctures and the media obviously

3:32

being very very nationalistic and protective of

3:34

the government and the banks in

3:37

general refused to cover that. And

3:39

the central bank of

3:41

Japan responded to all this

3:43

chaos at home by essentially

3:45

refusing to take the bitter

3:47

medicine of deflation and lowering interest

3:50

rates to zero, essentially freezing

3:52

stock and bond market prices where

3:54

they were after deflating for

3:56

a decade, and then

3:58

basically engaging in sophisticated financial

4:00

repression. So first, pinning

4:03

interest rates at the zero bound

4:05

and then moving that out across

4:07

the yield curve, eventually with yield

4:09

curve control, and then they also

4:11

were the first to do QE

4:13

in March of 2001. They continued

4:15

that through 2006, and then obviously

4:18

had to do another wave of

4:20

QE in the wake of the

4:22

great financial crisis. in around 2010

4:24

and then they invented something called

4:26

QQE, which was QE on steroids

4:28

with equity buying, corporate bond ETF

4:30

buying, obviously Treasury and government bond

4:33

buying. So they've really

4:35

been at this forefront of figuring

4:37

out how to keep an economy

4:39

running when you're at 260 % debt

4:41

to GDP. And

4:43

the problem with pinning interest rates

4:45

at the zero bound for 30

4:47

years is that There are

4:49

these traders who obviously want to arbitrage,

4:52

you know, the difference in interest rates

4:54

between countries. And if you're pinning interest

4:56

rates at zero, you're essentially telling all

4:58

these traders, hey, you have a source

5:00

of free money. You have a free

5:02

funding leg that you can use to

5:04

invest in other assets. So you can

5:06

go and borrow yen, sell

5:08

the yen, right? Borrow them as zero

5:10

percent, sell them, convert them into US

5:12

dollars, and then buy US Treasuries or

5:14

buy US equities or buy corporate bonds

5:16

or whatever it is. And then

5:19

you can profit basically that spread

5:21

for as much and as long

5:23

as you want. And you can

5:25

lever that up to juice up

5:27

your returns. And that

5:29

carry trade, which had been building

5:31

in the end for the last

5:33

20, 30 years, has really gone

5:35

into overdrive in the last four

5:37

or five years during COVID as

5:39

the Fed raised interest rates in

5:41

the wake of the great inflation

5:43

wave that came. due to

5:45

the COVID -19 spending stimulus

5:47

packages. And that

5:50

carry trade blew out the currency

5:52

from 100 yen to the

5:54

dollar to 150. And it

5:56

prompted the BOJ to do

5:58

all these emergency yen interventions

6:00

as well as bond buying

6:02

operations. And so this whole...

6:07

I guess fiat experiment has been crazy interesting

6:09

to watch and to go there in

6:11

person and to see you know how the

6:13

financial system actually works and to talk

6:15

to people who you know worked at Goldman

6:17

or worked at Jeffries or worked in

6:19

investment banking or worked in you know import

6:21

export and during the 80s and 90s

6:23

is just a fascinating experience and so I'm

6:25

really excited for the doc and it

6:27

should be out in about two months like

6:29

I said on the get based YouTube

6:31

channel and I also put out a YouTube

6:34

video with my

6:36

own take on things in

6:38

the coming weeks. So what

6:40

did you maybe make of your time in

6:42

the country? Did the economy seem like

6:44

they were prospering? What were maybe

6:46

some of the cultural observations you made? Sure.

6:48

So Japan is such an

6:50

interesting country because on one hand,

6:53

you're right, they have

6:55

260 % GDP. They

6:58

don't have this... They

7:00

don't have this immediate crisis that

7:02

seems to be looming over the people's

7:04

head It seems like everyone is

7:06

just kind of getting by as well

7:08

as they can but it's partially

7:10

due to the cultural resilience and just

7:12

the You know, I guess you

7:14

could call it like ethnic strength of

7:16

the Japanese, right? They're their their

7:18

social bonds as a nation and as

7:20

a people are so strong that

7:22

they they they band together and they

7:24

work together to get through Basically

7:26

anything you know if you leave your

7:28

wallet on the on the subway

7:31

in Japan people will chase you down

7:33

to give it back to you

7:35

and there are bikes everywhere that are

7:37

unlocked people leave you know They

7:39

might leave their laptop out at the

7:41

library for an hour or two

7:43

and leave and come back and they'll

7:45

still be there like this is

7:47

an extremely high -trust society and it's

7:49

also society that you know prizes the

7:51

collective benefit of the people and

7:53

so the government is also reflective of

7:55

that the government tries to do

7:57

policies that that Benefit the people but

7:59

the problem is obviously You know

8:01

with their extremely rigid society in some

8:03

ways it makes them very inflexible

8:05

to change it makes them very very

8:07

hard especially for the corporations to

8:09

envision switching You know switching strategies to

8:11

let's say incorporate Bitcoin or incorporate

8:13

AI or incorporate any new technology that

8:15

would be maybe advantageous to them.

8:17

So Yeah, their their cultural strength is

8:20

A feature and it's like it's

8:22

a positive and a negative in

8:24

different ways and one of the

8:26

main things that that relates to

8:28

is like I said they're corporate

8:30

and I guess economic activity. What

8:33

about maybe in terms of upward and

8:35

downward mobility can someone get a raise

8:37

can they lose their job. So

8:39

that's really interesting actually they can't really

8:41

so. that was something that really shocked

8:43

me to to understand is that the

8:45

way the Japanese economy works is you

8:48

go to school right you go to

8:50

higher education and then when you get

8:52

out of out of college you go

8:54

get a job and the job that

8:56

you get is kind of dependent on

8:58

your degree your connections and then once

9:00

you get into the job It's

9:02

expected of you to just do what

9:04

the job requires, nothing more, nothing less. You're

9:06

not supposed to give ideas to your

9:09

superior and you're not supposed to come up

9:11

with new business ventures for your company

9:13

that you work for. And you're

9:15

essentially just told to stay put

9:17

and work and there'll be scheduled raises

9:19

when people above you retire or

9:21

pass away. And so there is no

9:23

real upward mobility in the sense

9:25

that we think of it. And people

9:27

just don't quit their jobs. And

9:29

it's also extremely hard for businesses to

9:32

fire people. So what that

9:34

essentially means is that, again, the

9:36

entire economy becomes frozen in time.

9:38

Just like, like we said, with

9:41

the monetary system being frozen from

9:43

the 1990s, their economic and I

9:45

guess corporate system is also frozen

9:47

in time. And so you just

9:49

there's there's no change. Um,

9:52

but also obviously there's no growth because

9:54

of that. You know, they essentially don't really

9:56

have a venture capital environment. They don't

9:58

have private equity. They don't have angel investors.

10:00

If you're an individual and let's say

10:02

you're, you run a couple of restaurants, you

10:04

have a few million dollars and you

10:06

want to, you know, invest in a software

10:09

startup or invest in a Bitcoin mining

10:11

company that's, you know, small and wants to

10:13

expand operations. there's not really

10:15

a structure to do that in Japan.

10:17

It's extremely difficult. Anyone in Japan

10:19

who's highly creative just moves to the

10:21

US and works in Silicon Valley. Okay,

10:27

you posted most genius monetary policy

10:29

ever invented and it was

10:31

like a meme. It's like

10:33

a software drink machine. You got print yen,

10:35

buy yen and Bank of Japan. What does

10:37

this mean? Yeah, so that's

10:39

referring to the meme where the guy

10:41

is going up to the going

10:43

up to the soda dispenser and he's

10:45

pressing two buttons at once and

10:48

it's like print yen by yen and

10:50

it's the hand is the bank

10:52

of Japan That's that's an example of

10:54

what I was saying like this

10:56

nonsensical monetary policy Right and essentially all

10:58

all monetary policies is in the

11:00

end nonsensical right because what they're trying

11:02

to do is keep a broken

11:04

and failing system upright and they're willing

11:06

to sacrifice people's

11:09

wealth or sacrifice their purchasing power in

11:11

order to do that. But

11:13

the POJ is especially nonsensical

11:15

because when they were starting to

11:17

do their Yen interventions in

11:19

the fall of 2022 in September

11:21

and October as the Yen

11:24

reached 150 to the dollar, they

11:26

were at the same

11:28

time still running yield curve

11:30

control and they were

11:33

running based their QQE program

11:35

from 2013. So the

11:37

bank of Japan in a single week

11:39

would go out and they'd buy, you

11:41

know, let's say a couple

11:43

trillion yen worth of JGBs,

11:45

a couple trillion yen worth

11:48

of equities. And then

11:50

they would, at the end of

11:52

the week, fire sell a bunch

11:54

of dollars into the market to

11:56

buy yen on the foreign exchange

11:58

to strengthen their currency. So at

12:00

the same time that they were

12:02

printing currency with one hand, they

12:04

were burning USD to buy that

12:06

same currency with the other. on

12:08

the foreign exchange markets because they

12:10

were finally seeing the effects of

12:12

their insane monetary policy playing out

12:14

with the advent of the intervention

12:17

and the breaking of the 150

12:19

handle. So in order

12:21

to balance the two, I

12:23

guess, impossible levers, they

12:25

were trying to do both at once,

12:27

which just meant they were burning

12:29

the candle at both ends. printing

12:31

money and buying back that same money they

12:33

printed with with dollars and that obviously that

12:36

strategy will not work forever and once they

12:38

will run out of US dollars then the

12:40

serious crisis will be on hand but I

12:42

don't think their goal and I think they

12:44

understand that they're eventually doomed so I don't

12:46

think their goal is to necessarily you know

12:48

run this thing uh run their dollars or

12:50

all the way down to zero I think

12:52

they are just trying to delay the inevitable

12:54

and the inevitable is just to blow out

12:56

of JPY and eventual inflation coming back to

12:59

Japan. So

13:01

like it may be along those lines, I

13:03

mean what kind of dollar reserves do they

13:05

have left compared to when they were kind

13:07

of shooting through that ammo and at what

13:09

US dollar JPY price do you think the

13:11

music stops? Sure,

13:16

so that's a great question.

13:18

They started off with like 1

13:20

.4 trillion in US treasuries and

13:22

they burned through you know

13:25

200 250 billion of it luckily

13:28

They quickly realized that this strategy so they

13:30

still right now have about 1 .1 trillion

13:32

of US treasuries if you look at

13:34

their their tick data Luckily, they realized that

13:36

that was a bad strategy and they

13:38

realized that they would quickly run out of

13:40

you know dollar reserves It would like

13:42

literally last them 18 months at the at

13:45

the current burn rate they were doing

13:47

of like 60 billion a month and so

13:50

They quickly realized that that was not

13:52

sustainable. And so they said, well,

13:54

we have to do something else. And

13:56

so in December of 2023, they

13:59

first started with moving the bands of

14:01

yield curve control up into the

14:03

positive territory. So the band went from

14:05

0 % essentially to 0 .5%. And

14:07

then they eventually moved the band to

14:09

1%. And then they eventually stopped

14:11

doing yield curve control altogether. And then

14:13

they started hiking out of nowhere

14:15

when the rest of the globe is

14:18

starting to cut. And what

14:20

they're trying to do is

14:22

something called monetary policy volatility. And

14:25

no, I'm not making that up.

14:27

It's essentially they're trying to change. They've

14:29

been having the same monetary policy

14:31

for 34 years, which is low interest

14:33

rates and QE infinity. And

14:35

that has entrenched the players in the

14:37

market with all their positions and all

14:39

their leverage and all their, you know,

14:41

ideology and thinking about markets. And so

14:43

to to change things up, to shake

14:45

everyone up. They're now doing the opposite

14:47

of what they did before and doing

14:49

it randomly and not announcing it, right?

14:52

They'll do an emergency rate hike and

14:54

then they'll hit the market with the

14:56

Yen intervention or there'll be an FOMC

14:58

meeting and three hours after the meeting,

15:00

they slam the market with $30 billion

15:03

of Yen buying. And again,

15:05

the whole goal of it is to just

15:07

Freak everyone out and to make people

15:09

think oh well, maybe we shouldn't

15:12

put on these yen short positions because

15:14

you know, we might get blown

15:16

out of the water And so again

15:18

that volatility is kind of like

15:20

its own strategy in a sense of

15:23

scaring traders, stopping them from putting

15:25

on a yen and carry trade

15:27

and hopefully in their eyes, restabilizing

15:29

the monetary system. But it's coming

15:31

at a price because the 10 -year

15:33

JGB is now above 1 .5%.

15:35

They have a 40 -year bond, if

15:37

you can believe it, and the

15:39

40 -year bond is now at

15:41

the highest it's ever been since

15:43

its issuance in 2007, in terms

15:45

of yield. And

15:47

their entire bond market... Obviously is the

15:49

yield curve is is blowing out and

15:51

the Japanese government cannot afford those kinds

15:53

of rates And so eventually they'll be

15:55

forced to make a decision if they

15:57

want to keep keep the rates where

15:59

they are and refinance that one or

16:01

two percent Which again, that's a lot

16:03

when you're talking about two hundred and

16:05

sixty percent public debt to GDP Or

16:07

if they want to do QE again

16:09

and yield curve control again and bring

16:11

the rates down to zero Which just

16:13

means their currency is going to blow

16:16

out even even more Wow.

16:18

I love the volatility

16:20

as stability policy. That's

16:22

always a good one. 40 year bonds, that

16:24

makes me think though about like, you're

16:26

saying monetary experimentalism, like, are we

16:29

getting 40 year mortgages soon

16:31

and 50 to 100 year bonds

16:33

in America? I

16:35

wonder, and

16:37

we'll talk about America soon, but how

16:39

much of the economy or the

16:41

stock market, the Japanese stock market does

16:43

the Bank of Japan own? So

16:46

the BOJ owns about I

16:49

think 58 % of all JGB's

16:51

which are the government bonds they

16:53

own over 75 % of the

16:55

10 -year JGB's and they own

16:57

about There are certain tenors

17:00

where they own more than a

17:02

hundred percent and the reason

17:04

why they can do that is

17:06

because they they literally buy

17:08

all the the securities from

17:10

an issuance, and then they lend

17:13

those out. So technically their

17:15

ownership over certain issuances of the

17:17

JGB is somewhere north of

17:19

100%, like 107%. For stocks, the

17:21

number's a bit lower. I

17:24

believe it's around 45%, but it's

17:26

still huge. And the

17:28

BOJ itself has been

17:30

trying to juice the markets.

17:32

And after markets, Reclaimed

17:35

there after the Nikkei reclaimed its

17:37

1990 high in April of 2024

17:39

the boj was publicly speculating if

17:41

they could go out and start

17:43

selling their massive equity holdings and

17:45

Obviously they can't like it's that's

17:48

a joke. They if they own

17:50

almost half the market You can't

17:52

go out and sell in any

17:54

size that matters because you're just

17:56

gonna drive the market back down

17:58

because you are essentially the market

18:00

at this point. And

18:03

so the BOD is kind

18:05

of trapped in this conundrum where

18:07

they're going to have to

18:09

continually zombify more and more of

18:11

markets until they basically own

18:13

everything in a real sense, both

18:15

in the equities and the

18:17

bond side. Speaking

18:19

of zombie companies, maybe the

18:21

opposite. What maybe

18:23

did you see as the

18:25

reaction to meta -planet in Japan? Yeah,

18:29

MetaPlanet, so they

18:31

were extremely, you

18:33

know, vivacious and

18:35

energetic and excited.

18:38

You know, Japanese companies, again, remember, this

18:40

is an environment where the stock

18:42

market has gone nowhere for 30 years.

18:45

You literally would have, if you

18:47

parked cash at the Nikkei at

18:49

38 ,000, you know, 330, their last

18:51

tick in December 1989, and

18:53

you held it, you would have

18:55

made no money. in either in real

18:57

terms or nominal terms for 34

18:59

years. And so

19:02

the 34 years in like

19:04

four months. And

19:06

so MetaPlanet buying Bitcoin and

19:08

then having their stock skyrocket

19:10

over 10 ,000%. Hey, Bitcoiners,

19:12

I'm heading to Bitcoin 2025 in

19:14

Las Vegas from May 27 to

19:16

May 29 and you need to

19:19

be there. This isn't just another

19:21

conference. It's the ultimate Bitcoin party.

19:23

Grab your ticket now using promo

19:25

code MATRIX or at the link

19:27

in the description. See

19:29

you in Vegas, Freaks. Let's make

19:31

this one legendary. Volatility

19:33

brought life brought energy back into

19:36

the Japanese stock market and Japanese

19:38

have actually formed, you know, essentially

19:40

like Reddit Subreddits and board and

19:42

message boards that all discuss the

19:44

meta planet stock just like the

19:46

micro strategy guys have their own,

19:48

you know subreddit and they have

19:50

their own Twitter community, which is

19:52

irresponsibly long msdr There's the same

19:54

the same that's developed for for

19:56

meta planet and I went to

19:58

the meeting and there was about

20:00

2 ,000 people in the attendance typically

20:03

Last year in April

20:05

234 they had five people

20:07

in attendance so their

20:09

you know shareholder base has

20:11

spent essentially grown exponentially

20:13

and People were coming with

20:15

swag people were coming

20:17

with hats with shirts with

20:19

jackets with you know,

20:21

Bitcoin books they wanted signed

20:23

and Dylan Leclerc and

20:25

Simon Jerovic. I think this

20:27

is his last name

20:29

he They signed books

20:31

and papers and took pictures with

20:34

people for like four hours after the

20:36

the thing had ended So it

20:38

was like a massive massive event and

20:40

they even had an overflow room

20:42

So it's the biggest shareholder event that

20:44

that has essentially happened for their

20:46

company's history for sure and I think

20:48

even in Japanese Equity history because

20:50

again most Japanese equities are completely dead.

20:52

They don't move anywhere. They don't

20:54

really trade no one really buys them

20:56

or holds them, maybe some pension

20:58

funds and that's it. And

21:00

so there's no retail investor base that's excited

21:02

about any of these stocks and meta

21:04

plan is the first one that is doing

21:06

something that they can get excited about. That's

21:10

pretty cool. I did not expect that response.

21:12

I expected a very tepid sort of like,

21:14

oh, no one in Japan really knows about

21:16

them. And they were tiny. That's really interesting.

21:19

So then, you know, speaking of sort

21:21

of Maybe Japanese equities

21:23

and haven't moved very much my

21:25

son is a gamer. He

21:27

codes he makes games. He loves

21:29

games. He's expert gamer player thing

21:31

and You know, it's made

21:33

me interested in GameStop Because it's

21:35

like a way we can

21:37

kind of connect communities GameStop is

21:39

interesting because it's another maybe Bitcoin

21:41

Treasury company and I think

21:43

just Bitcoin Treasury companies are interesting,

21:45

right? So I think that and

21:47

I think GameStop is kind of like a

21:49

little different because it's maybe bigger if they make

21:51

this move and they haven't officially yet and

21:53

other than maybe changing their guidelines and their policy,

21:56

they would be one of the bigger or

21:58

biggest companies to move into the treasury space. But

22:01

I think about GameStop and I think about you being

22:03

in Japan, I think about Nintendo. So

22:06

maybe what did you maybe

22:08

see there with GameStop and or

22:10

Nintendo and sort of what's

22:12

going on with Bitcoin? Sure,

22:14

so actually I've been in

22:16

the GameStop community, you know, like

22:18

for four, almost five years

22:20

now, and that's actually where I

22:22

got my start, writing macro

22:24

research on some of the GameStop

22:26

Wall Street, you know, Reddit

22:28

kind of boards. And that

22:30

community has been obviously

22:33

slandered, they've been, you know,

22:35

lied about, manipulated. you

22:37

know, fud it out of out of

22:39

existence by the main tree media for the

22:41

last 30 years or well, really retail

22:43

investors have been for the last 30 years,

22:45

but then specifically for the last three

22:47

years, very hardcore, you know, propaganda campaign against

22:49

them. And I never understood it

22:51

because again, if you look at GameStop

22:53

at the time before Ryan Cohen took

22:55

charge of the company, it was a

22:57

brick and mortar that was seeing, you

22:59

know, decreasing year over year revenues, decreasing

23:01

the negative earnings for the last like,

23:03

you know, 10 years. They had a

23:05

$400 million bond that was coming up

23:07

in March of 2021 that they could

23:09

not pay. They only had like $78

23:11

million of cash on hand to pay

23:13

it. And they were,

23:15

you know, ostensibly and also really

23:18

a company that was looking towards, you

23:20

know, it was heading towards bankruptcy

23:22

and it was in serious trouble. But

23:24

then you have Ryan Kogan come

23:26

in, buy 12 % of the company,

23:28

put in fresh capital, put in fresh

23:30

leadership, then start reinventing, you know,

23:32

the company. retooling all

23:34

the stores and getting rid of

23:37

dead waste and lowering SG &A

23:39

expense by like 40 % so

23:41

that their margins improved. And

23:44

for the last two quarters it's been cash flow

23:46

positive. on a

23:48

free cash flow basis and

23:50

so they've finally and they are

23:52

also debt free so they've

23:54

paid off all their debt and

23:56

now they're sitting on 4 .7

23:59

billion dollars of cash with

24:01

another 1 .3 billion loaded from

24:03

the convert so they're essentially a

24:05

cash company that's basically ready

24:07

for any dip to buy a

24:09

massive amount of whatever they

24:12

want and what I've been proposing

24:14

you know since 2021 really

24:16

was that GameStop by Bitcoin because

24:18

Bitcoin was the ultimate hedge

24:20

for monetary collapse or monetary issues

24:22

and GameStop represents this kind

24:25

of ground swell, grassroots, retail

24:27

investor, power to the people

24:29

movement that was an echo

24:31

of the 2008, you know,

24:33

or should I say 2010,

24:35

2011, you know, Occupy

24:37

Wall Street movement. And

24:39

so if you If

24:41

you see the corruption in the

24:43

stock market, you see this naked shorting,

24:46

you see these hedge funds manipulating

24:48

equities and using wash trades and ladder

24:50

trading to push down stocks and

24:52

then paying mainstream media to put out

24:54

negative articles and you are angry

24:56

against that corruption, it's very easy for

24:58

you to see the synergy with

25:00

Bitcoin and how Bitcoin fixes not only

25:02

obviously the the corruption in our

25:04

monetary system But it could help fix

25:06

the problem with our with our

25:09

stock market And so I've I've said

25:11

for years that that they should

25:13

get in and in last summer in

25:15

July We wrote a shareholder proposal

25:17

to the board Recommending that game stop

25:19

by Bitcoin with what we said

25:21

was 20 % of their cash on

25:23

hand now they don't seem to have

25:25

actually done that with the cash

25:27

on hand yet but Clearly Ryan Cohen

25:30

has been orange -pilled by sailor They

25:32

had a meeting in late January

25:34

believe and and put out a tweet

25:36

of it on like the 29th

25:38

with both of them together and then

25:40

Ryan Cohen, you know, obviously Put

25:42

out some some news around right after

25:44

earnings saying that the the company

25:46

was considering a Bitcoin treasury strategy and

25:48

that they were loading this convertible

25:50

bond in order to do it and

25:53

so with that news and that

25:55

bond now funded it's It's

25:57

exciting to see what's what's going

25:59

to come next because I

26:01

think the the synergy for this

26:03

company is is massive and

26:05

not only that you can see

26:07

the combination right of These

26:09

are the two largest Like strong

26:11

opinionated Investor bases in the

26:13

world essentially right you have the

26:15

GameStop apes who have been

26:18

again manipulated Slandered

26:20

lied about from the mainstream media.

26:22

They're pissed off at the establishment and

26:24

then you have the Bitcoiners who

26:26

basically have had the same thing happen

26:28

to them and both of them

26:30

have learned to live through immensely volatile

26:32

cycles and you know immense drawdowns

26:34

and so if they can combine and

26:36

if Bitcoin can adopt or GameStop can

26:38

adopt Bitcoin in a meaningful way

26:40

and then Incorporate into their business model

26:42

and also hold it on their

26:44

on their balance sheet as a treasury

26:46

asset We could see you know a

26:48

huge huge spike in the GameStop

26:50

price But also we could see, obviously,

26:52

more base level adoption for Bitcoin. I

26:55

would love for you to kind

26:57

of walk us through, you know, I

27:00

mean, the GameStop Apes have, I

27:02

guess, been through a lot. And

27:04

maybe even Michael Burry was looking to

27:06

Ape in at some point. And maybe

27:08

what did he discover about sort of

27:10

like shares and like sort of like

27:12

naked shorting or whatever you call it?

27:14

What's going on over there? I mean,

27:16

it seems kind of weird. It's

27:19

insane. It's insane and you know,

27:21

Burry was obviously one of the

27:23

early ones to point this out

27:26

But like we said, there were

27:28

multiple other people who were buying

27:30

shares and trying to DRS them

27:32

and didn't find it, you know

27:34

Easy an easy task to do

27:36

but Burry started buying GameStop in

27:38

like March of 2019 Right before

27:40

the code obviously there's like a

27:42

year before the COVID pandemic and

27:44

the GameStop was Century

27:46

kind of a faltering brick and

27:48

mortar that was again dealing with these

27:50

debt problems and this this cash

27:52

flow problem that was that was bleeding

27:54

them dry and He bought I

27:57

think it was several million shares back

27:59

when the float was like 78

28:01

million so he bought a significant amount

28:03

and then he tried to Pull

28:05

them from his broker and put them

28:07

in what's known as a DRS

28:09

account a direct register share system account

28:11

and To do

28:14

that, he has to use a transfer agent

28:16

which pulls the shares from the broker. And

28:18

when he did that, they call the

28:20

broker and the broker tells him that... deliver

28:22

the shares because they don't have them. And

28:25

the broker says, we're going to have

28:27

to spend a couple of days at first

28:29

to go find you the shares. And

28:31

a couple of days pass, and then a

28:33

week, and he keeps writing letters to

28:35

them. They keep saying, we're working on delivering

28:37

your 1 .4 million shares. They deliver a

28:39

couple hundred thousand. He says, that's not

28:42

enough. They keep delaying. They keep

28:44

delaying. And in the end, it takes him

28:46

months, months to get all of

28:48

the shares accounted for. And it was

28:50

just small, obviously, this is just a small

28:52

amount of the float. And

28:54

the question arose for him, obviously,

28:56

as well, if, you know, if

28:58

the broker doesn't have the shares, then where

29:00

are they and who has them? And

29:03

this opened the can of

29:05

worms of basically what is

29:07

called like, you know, naked

29:09

shorting or grossly negligent or

29:11

grossly abusive naked shorting, which

29:13

is a practice by which

29:15

brokers Market makers hedge

29:17

funds can promise to sell shares of

29:19

a company they can deliver What's called

29:21

a phantom share basically kind of IOU

29:24

so just like you can count it

29:26

counterfeit money You can counterfeit shares you

29:28

can print fake shares and give them

29:30

to someone to say you know hey

29:32

Cedric I don't have the GME share

29:34

right now But I'm I'm giving you

29:36

an IOU and that's as good as

29:38

a share just like how your dollars

29:40

just as good as gold And

29:43

those phantom shares were circulating everywhere. And so

29:45

when someone finally said, hey, I need to

29:47

pull this back to my transfer agent and

29:49

get real shares, that wasn't available.

29:51

Like that wasn't an option. They had to go out

29:53

and find the real ones. And

29:55

so GameStop has seen that

29:57

abuse inflicted upon them basically

29:59

incessantly for the last decade.

30:01

And again, this was evident

30:03

with the run up in

30:06

January of 2021. The

30:08

short interest. before the run

30:10

up was reported by FINRA

30:12

on the low end, the

30:14

low end at 140%. Now,

30:17

how can you short a

30:19

stock? How can you short the

30:21

float more shares than exist, right?

30:24

140 % of it was shorted and

30:26

other FINRA data from the month

30:28

prior actually showed 221 % and

30:30

even 300 and like 30%. So

30:32

again, multiples of the float shorted

30:35

as if they owed more shares

30:37

than exist. How do you do

30:39

that? How are you able to

30:41

short more shares than exist? You

30:43

make a short. You create

30:45

phantom shares. You create fake IOUs.

30:47

And so no one really knows

30:49

the true GME short interest figure,

30:52

but... it was, it was obviously grossly

30:54

abusive to the company and was

30:56

driving the stock price down and down

30:58

and down and helping to drive

31:00

the company into bankruptcy. So

31:02

that's what Burry exposed. That's what

31:04

Wall Street bets and the Redditors

31:07

and the GME apes exposed is

31:09

this massively abusive system that just

31:11

drives companies to the dirt and

31:13

these headphones that profit from shorting

31:15

those companies down. Are options used

31:17

to cover their positions in these? Yeah,

31:20

options and derivatives are a

31:22

form of what's called like

31:25

derivative hedging or FTD cycling.

31:28

One of the things that the

31:30

settlement system will ask for

31:32

is if you make a short

31:34

that you have what's called a

31:36

bona fide agreement for a share,

31:38

which basically means, do you either

31:40

have a share or do you

31:43

have a promise for a future

31:45

share? And if

31:47

you Again, if you're a hedge

31:49

fund and you don't have all those

31:51

shares, then what you do is you

31:53

go out and you buy a bunch

31:55

of options and then you claim those

31:57

options as good as shares. But when

31:59

the time comes to redeem the options,

32:01

you just sell them and you roll

32:03

them. And so you don't ever have

32:05

to actually deliver the underlying shares. You

32:07

can also do that obviously with swaps.

32:10

Part of the reason why Archegos

32:12

Capital blew up in March of

32:14

2021 was because of GameStop. And

32:17

the reason why we know

32:19

that is because if you look

32:21

at the legal documents, you

32:23

can see disclosures where GameStop has

32:25

mentioned in discussions between the

32:27

head of trading at Archegos and

32:29

the prime broker at Credit

32:31

Suisse. And you can also

32:33

see that, obviously, they have something

32:35

called a... net capital

32:37

or net excess premium charge,

32:39

which is basically like the charge

32:41

that they owe to the

32:44

DTCC for hedging all their trades.

32:46

And the higher this margin amount is

32:48

basically means the more of their loan

32:50

book or the more of their stock

32:53

book is at risk. And

32:55

if you look at their

32:57

margin amount that was required,

32:59

it essentially exactly follows the

33:01

GameStop price action from January and

33:03

February of 2021. And

33:05

so, with those two clues, it's

33:07

clear that GME was part of these

33:09

derivatives, these total return swaps, these

33:11

portfolio and basket swaps that were used

33:13

to short game stop and give

33:15

the shorters a way to go to

33:18

a regulator and say, hey, yeah,

33:20

we don't have the shares, but look,

33:22

we have this derivative agreement that

33:24

is a promise for future shares, so

33:26

that's good as the shares themselves,

33:28

so we don't need to give you

33:30

actually the real shares at all. Wow,

33:33

that's crazy. Um, have,

33:35

has this position been like

33:38

fully on, unwound then? We

33:41

don't believe so. So the reason,

33:43

and the reason why is because for

33:46

one, Archegos went down trying to

33:48

hold this position and then Credit Suisse

33:50

literally a month after I got

33:52

this position handed to them. They also

33:54

collapsed and required a bailout from

33:56

the Swiss National Bank, which is their

33:58

central bank, and the local financial

34:01

regulator. And they were acquired

34:03

by UBS. And UBS has been

34:05

obviously bleeding from this bag, as

34:07

well as the other toxic credit

34:09

suites bags from 2008. So

34:11

all of it combined

34:13

basically means that it's

34:15

our... Theory that they

34:18

don't have all the swaps unwound and

34:20

those swaps are just being used

34:22

to kick the can Essentially as long

34:24

as they can until until they're

34:26

forced to cover which they do not

34:28

want to because of course it

34:30

would it would result in many of

34:32

these hedge funds blowing up It's

34:34

like the scene in Big Short where

34:36

he's learning about the derivatives market

34:38

around the mortgages and it's just like

34:40

whoa, there's you know 20 X

34:42

of this bullshit how How

34:44

maybe is high speed trading

34:46

predatory on retail and is that

34:48

involved in GameStop at all? Oh,

34:51

absolutely. So in the US,

34:53

there's something called PFOF, which is

34:56

payment for order flow. So

34:58

retail brokerages and

35:00

market makers can essentially

35:03

work together to

35:05

front run customers. So

35:07

let's say I go to Robinhood and

35:09

I want to buy Apple stock. I

35:11

put in an order through Robinhood. Now

35:14

Robinhood is not actually, you know, a market

35:16

maker. They can't actually get me the

35:18

shares, but they are, they're a broker, so

35:20

they're supposed to go to the market, you

35:23

know, talk to the market maker and

35:25

use the market maker to settle a trade

35:27

and then they'll transfer the shares into

35:29

my account. The market maker that they

35:31

have designated to them is Citadel. And

35:33

Citadel goes and they can,

35:36

because they have payment for order

35:38

flow, they can essentially snipe the

35:40

orders Before they hit the New

35:42

York Stock Exchange and use their own

35:44

I guess you call it, you know

35:46

order book to balance out the transaction

35:49

So like let's say again, I want

35:51

to buy 10 Apple shares Normally my

35:53

my order would go to the stock

35:55

exchange It would be listed as a

35:57

buy and then another a market maker

35:59

would look on the order book would

36:01

find my buy order It would match

36:03

it to another sell order give me

36:05

the best price possible and then it

36:07

would execute right but by using payment

36:10

for order flow, that order is interrupted

36:12

before it gets to the stock exchange

36:14

by the market maker who is paying

36:16

for the order flow. They

36:18

get it a few tenths

36:20

of a second before the exchange

36:23

does, and that may not

36:25

sound like a lot of time, but

36:27

in the world of high -frequency trading, that

36:29

is an eternity, because we're talking about peak

36:31

-doseconds here, like millions of a second, and

36:33

so they find your order, they

36:35

snipe it, they internalize it, they settle

36:37

it, and then they send it

36:39

back. So basically it ensures that most

36:41

retail orders, especially from Robinhood, for

36:43

example, don't even reach the stock market

36:45

at all. They just get internalized

36:47

by a market maker like Robinhood. And

36:49

Robinhood is able to make a

36:51

few fractions of a penny off every

36:53

single trade they do in that

36:55

sense. And again, you do

36:57

that a couple hundred million times a

37:00

day. You do that trillions of

37:02

times a month or whatever. And

37:04

suddenly you're seeing like you know,

37:06

massive, massive revenue figures for Citadel

37:08

and Virtu and all the other

37:10

market making firms. And so it's

37:12

basically like a cash grab. And

37:14

I think it's extremely parasitic in

37:17

general to our financial system to

37:19

allow something like this to occur.

37:23

Yeah. So when GME and all that

37:25

was going down, I mean, I

37:27

felt like it was something very interesting

37:29

from how it demonstrates how corrupt

37:31

the system is. I was

37:33

like, oh, I don't have to spend a lot of time there. I

37:35

get it. I'll just hang out at Bitcoin. I

37:37

didn't foresee Bitcoin Treasury companies

37:39

so much at the time, even

37:42

if MicroStrategy was out there, especially

37:44

with maybe thinking about ETFs coming

37:46

down the road. But I want to

37:48

learn, like, hear more about Ryan

37:50

Cohen. So I don't know much about

37:53

Roaring Kitty. And Ryan Cohen seems

37:55

very savvy. I think he was the

37:57

CEO and founder of Chewy. And,

37:59

you know, so he's, you know, he's, this

38:02

is not his first, you know, dog and

38:04

pony show. And he,

38:06

uh, so she's, but I

38:08

don't know, and he's met with seller, but I don't

38:10

know what he's thinking. But, uh, maybe

38:12

how do you see game

38:14

chat, a game stop, maybe changing

38:16

their business model to be

38:18

a full fledged Bitcoin company? And

38:21

what, like, because maybe. Ryan

38:23

Cohen doesn't do exactly what Sailor

38:25

does. They have different operating

38:27

businesses, legacy operating businesses that

38:29

they could maybe choose to push forward

38:31

in different ways or dwindle. So

38:33

how do you see this going? Yeah,

38:36

so you're right. Ryan Cohen

38:38

was the founder of Chewy,

38:41

which was essentially a dog

38:43

and pet food company that

38:45

would, it was like

38:47

the Amazon of pet food delivery, right? And

38:50

most people would look at that and say,

38:52

Well, why would you use Chui? Why wouldn't

38:54

you use Amazon White? How

38:56

could Ryan Cohen possibly compete with

38:58

a giant like Amazon? And

39:00

the answer that Ryan Cohen saw

39:03

was customer service and basically customer satisfaction,

39:05

like fulfilling the customer's desires, treating

39:07

the customer as... Well as you possibly

39:09

can and that's something that Amazon

39:11

has obviously failed to do and and

39:13

it's just become about the bottom

39:16

line and margins and profitability for that

39:18

company and they even treat their

39:20

own workers poorly They have work houses

39:22

where you know people work 12 -hour

39:24

days standing on their feet and

39:26

have 10 -minute bathroom breaks every three

39:28

hours or whatever It's it's extremely difficult

39:31

work and Ryan Cohen said I

39:33

think there's a different way. I think

39:35

people would be willing To pay

39:37

just even a little bit more to

39:39

have a personalized more Friendly

39:42

retail experience then what they get

39:44

on Amazon and so he built

39:46

chewy into a seven billion dollar

39:48

Company and now I think the

39:50

market cap is actually up to

39:52

11 billion dollars and he sold

39:54

his entire steak and chewy in

39:57

like 2015 and so he was

39:59

a billionaire he was wealthy he

40:01

could do whatever he wanted and

40:03

He kind of sat on his

40:05

hands for a few years looking

40:07

for a new opportunity and again

40:09

his his whole life and and

40:11

The all or I guess, you

40:13

know philosophy was structured around how

40:15

can he Fight against you know

40:17

negative powers in this world if

40:19

you look at like his dad

40:21

and the influence his dad had

40:23

on him of you know, it's

40:25

telling these these virtues of hard

40:28

work, you know Proof of work

40:30

basically not not cheating anybody not

40:32

lying not scamming putting other people

40:34

first being honest forthwith All

40:36

those values were something that he

40:38

wanted to continue on with his with

40:40

his new venture and when he

40:42

I had a game stop in in

40:44

2020 he saw a company that

40:46

was essentially down on slug and being

40:48

shattered by naked short selling and

40:50

He wanted to do something about it.

40:52

And so that's why he started

40:54

being an activist investor buying a bunch

40:56

of shares in the in the

40:58

company and then Working to reinvent the

41:00

company and to stop the bleeding

41:02

that had been inflicted upon it for

41:04

years And his goal

41:06

was really to, again,

41:08

create a sound business that

41:10

can actually outcompete the,

41:12

you know, the

41:15

Amazons and the big

41:17

box e -commerce companies, the

41:19

Shopify's of this world. And

41:21

I think, again, he's

41:24

been at least marginally successful

41:26

in doing that because

41:28

he's stopped the bleeding for

41:30

GameStop and made it

41:32

debt -free. So that's a

41:34

success. Yeah, he

41:36

seems like he was a friend. I heard

41:38

a very young entrepreneur I don't even think

41:40

he maybe went to college. Maybe dropped out

41:42

of high school Also, and he was making

41:44

money and kind of wanted to pursue entrepreneurial

41:46

things. I Don't know

41:48

if he's a video gamer.

41:50

I don't know. I wonder do

41:52

you think they're going to

41:54

do things beyond just You know

41:56

Go after the bond market

41:58

maybe go after wheat your capital

42:00

speculate a speculative attack the

42:02

dollar buy Bitcoin are they gonna

42:04

do things like maybe You

42:06

can maybe pay for your games

42:08

over lightning and maybe they

42:10

become a Bitcoin bank. Do you

42:12

see a much more maybe

42:14

broader vision here for GameStop? Yeah,

42:18

I'm not sure because

42:20

the issue is GameStop has

42:22

been extremely

42:24

quiet and extremely tight -lipped around what

42:26

their plan is exactly for this

42:28

money and what their plan is in

42:30

general with their Bitcoin acquisitions that

42:32

they're going to do. My

42:35

theory would be that, yes,

42:37

they're going to incorporate Bitcoin in

42:39

more ways than just buying

42:41

it as a treasury asset and

42:43

doing this other strategy or

42:45

a modified version of the trade.

42:47

The sailor strategy on their

42:49

balance sheet. I think there's multiple

42:51

opportunities for like rewards points

42:53

for example for Redemption and Bitcoin

42:55

you could probably they're probably

42:57

gonna allow buying games and selling

42:59

games in the store in

43:01

Bitcoin you can probably have you

43:03

know, viable DLC and Skins

43:05

and add -ons that will be

43:07

in you know available to do

43:09

on Lightning Network And

43:11

obviously they have a collectibles and

43:13

basically like collective cards collection

43:15

cards business. That's actually pretty viable

43:18

that they could also do

43:20

in Bitcoin and all those things

43:22

could allow them to add

43:24

more Bitcoin streams of revenue to

43:26

their bottom line and allow

43:28

them to stack Bitcoin even faster,

43:30

which is I think a

43:32

great move. They're

43:34

very, very well.

43:37

Yeah, they're very, very tight lipped

43:39

and cautious because Ever since the

43:41

2021 run -up, they've been threatened with

43:43

lawsuit after lawsuit for basically

43:47

telegraphing or foreshadowing what

43:49

their own moves are.

43:52

And so because of that, Ryan Kohn himself, but

43:54

also Larry Chang, other

43:57

board members have been extremely cautious with

43:59

their tweets and with what they

44:01

say, and not telegraphing or telling people

44:03

what they're going to do ahead

44:05

of time, because again, that could be

44:07

construed as some form of market

44:09

manipulation, especially when you have a retail

44:11

investor base that's this large and

44:13

this adamant about supporting the company. So

44:15

I think they're whatever they're gonna

44:17

do they're gonna do it kind of

44:19

like you're gonna figure it out

44:21

But after the fact not beforehand and

44:24

what does 741 mean? So

44:26

741 is just this weird

44:28

Again, this all conspirator kind

44:30

of tinfoil fun fun tinfoil

44:32

for the bit for the

44:35

GME community But it's this

44:37

number that has kept showing

44:39

up in the GameStop filings

44:41

in the GameStop you

44:43

know, investor base for the last

44:46

four years, five years. So

44:48

if you look at their, um,

44:50

some of their filings on the

44:52

SEC page, their first numbers in

44:54

the URL is seven for one.

44:56

Uh, they've had, um, uh,

44:58

seven for data four

45:00

for, uh, or seven

45:02

for seven for four stock

45:04

split. Um, and

45:06

they also had, uh,

45:09

several different like filings that

45:11

had, uh, you know a 741

45:13

figure like hidden in there

45:15

somewhere and they've also had

45:17

obviously very important tweets that

45:19

have gone out consistently at 741

45:22

and so or 741 and

45:24

so all this had led

45:26

people to believe that 741

45:28

is some significant number for

45:30

the for the company and

45:32

that it's it's basically foreshadowing

45:34

you know some important date or

45:36

some figure or some you

45:38

know entity or person that's

45:40

going to be involved in

45:42

and GameStop in the future. Interesting.

45:45

I like the 7 -4 -1 stock

45:47

split. Let's talk about

45:50

gold a bit. I

45:52

mean, there's so much going on right now. But

45:55

it seems like gold is screaming at

45:57

us. What's

45:59

happening maybe in London at the Bank

46:01

of England? What do you see going

46:03

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46:34

your order Yeah, the gold

46:36

market is extremely chaotic and there's

46:39

been essentially what I

46:41

would call a liquidity

46:43

crisis at the BOE

46:45

and at the London

46:47

Gold Pool building for

46:49

the last four or

46:51

five months. So

46:53

starting in, obviously in 2023

46:55

and then in 2024, we started

46:57

to see more and more

47:00

redemptions coming for physical gold. out

47:02

of Shanghai out of the

47:04

SGEI which is there the Chinese

47:06

gold exchange and that started

47:08

putting a draw on Western markets

47:10

for physical gold redemptions and

47:12

we saw the Comex slowly being

47:14

drained as well as the

47:16

LBMA being drained of the physical

47:18

gold but all of that

47:20

went into overdrive just in January

47:22

and February this year as

47:24

redemptions net redemption to the Comex

47:27

for January for example soared

47:29

to 19 ,000 contracts, which

47:31

for reference, that's about four to

47:33

five times the normal monthly, you

47:35

know, January redemption amount, and that

47:37

equates to 1 .9 million ounces of

47:39

physical gold. So that amount of

47:41

gold withdrawal meant that the COMEX

47:43

panicked and had to find their

47:45

own, you know, gold elsewhere and

47:47

refill their coffers, so to speak,

47:49

because again, one of the worst

47:51

things they can do for business

47:53

as an exchange, especially as a

47:55

gold exchange, is to actually run

47:57

out of gold. Because

47:59

suddenly now nobody wants to use

48:01

you as an exchange because

48:03

you just don't have any gold

48:05

So the COMEX started drawing

48:07

in all their Outstanding IOU certain

48:09

or gold certificates that are

48:11

gold IOUs at the LBMA So

48:13

that started draining London and

48:15

as these London vaults were being

48:17

drained the London, you know

48:19

gold gold banks the the brokers

48:21

all started going to the

48:23

Bank of England for more liquidity

48:25

because they said, hey, we've

48:27

drawn down 20, 30, 40 %

48:29

of our gold supply. We're

48:32

starting to get low. We need

48:34

to have excess gold liquidity. And

48:36

so they all started draining

48:38

the Bank of England's own gold

48:40

through their borrow program and

48:42

the lease rate for the Bank

48:44

of England's gold skyrocketed from

48:46

where it is usually, which is

48:48

like... basis points to like

48:50

6%, 7%, which is the biggest

48:52

percentage increase that they've ever

48:54

had in history. And

48:56

the wait times at the BOE

48:59

extended to, you know, six to eight

49:01

weeks. So there was basically like

49:03

a huge, huge wait time for the

49:05

amount of gold, you know, that

49:07

these banks were requesting for physical delivery.

49:10

We also saw a strain in the

49:12

ETFs. and even like gold stocks

49:14

where like the GLD ETF, for example,

49:16

saw the borrow rate in the

49:18

ETF. So basically the amount of money

49:20

you pay to borrow shares of

49:23

the ETF spike from like 1 %

49:25

to like 7 % or 8%. And

49:27

again, the reason why these banks and

49:29

hedge funds were doing that is

49:31

because you can actually redeem. If you're

49:33

an authorized participant, which basically means

49:36

if you're a bank, you

49:38

can actually redeem the The

49:41

gold the GLD shares the ETF

49:43

shares for physical gold So what you

49:45

can do is you can take

49:47

those physical you can buy that you

49:50

know borrow the shares or you

49:52

can buy them and you can

49:54

take them to you know HSBC and

49:56

JPM which are the authorized You

49:58

know participants for for the ETF and

50:00

you can redeem them for shares

50:02

of physical gold for for bars or

50:05

for coins or whatever they have

50:07

there and so people are now

50:09

draining the ETFs of their gold because

50:11

they needed they needed physical liquidity

50:13

and all this is to say that

50:15

there's basically institutional the gold demand

50:18

reemerging as a major driving factor in

50:20

the gold price for the next

50:22

two three years going forward and

50:24

that that's what's really driving the gold

50:26

price higher because for decades just

50:28

like with GameStop right with the naked

50:30

shorting we've seen You know

50:32

naked shorting essentially or paper contracts in

50:35

the gold market balloon to You know

50:37

the hundreds of times of the amount

50:39

of gold that is in the vaults

50:41

So you know the estimate is for

50:43

London for example that there's 200 to

50:45

300 paper ounces of gold for every

50:47

one physical ounce in the US It's

50:49

not as extreme but it's still bad

50:52

like 80 ounces of paper gold 100

50:54

ounces of paper gold for every one

50:56

ounce of physical gold and that system

50:58

works right as long as you don't

51:00

actually request delivery as long as nobody

51:02

really wants the physical gold delivered on

51:04

their doorstep. The minute that everybody wants

51:06

their physical gold, this little game of

51:08

hot potato, this little game of charades,

51:11

where everyone's just passing around a single

51:13

gold coin and 10 promises for it,

51:15

now suddenly everybody wants the gold coin.

51:17

And that's what's happening. And that causes

51:19

the paper markets, which is the LBMA

51:21

and the COMEX, to start to break

51:24

and to rip the gold price upwards

51:26

in order to compensate for that demand. Yeah,

51:28

right. It's very interesting watching gold. Maybe it's a

51:30

canary in the coal mine. How

51:33

does maybe the DXY falling? I think

51:35

everyone gets excited for that. But how does

51:37

that maybe strengthen the current system? So

51:40

that's a great question. I actually had a

51:42

really good tweet about that today and people have

51:44

been DMing me asking me because I've said

51:46

that a lot. Like, you know, Dave, the

51:48

irony is that. the lower Dixie goes, the

51:50

stronger the system gets. And people are like,

51:52

what? That makes no sense. It's like, no,

51:54

it actually makes perfect sense. Again, when you

51:56

think about it, it's counterintuitive, but it makes

51:59

sense. And the reason why

52:01

is because the current system, the

52:03

way it's structured is that there's

52:05

trillions and trillions of dollars of

52:07

external dollar debts that are swirling

52:09

around in the global debt markets.

52:11

These are called Euro dollars. So

52:14

this is like a Pakistani bank making

52:16

a loan to an Iranian oil supplier. or

52:18

a Chinese commercial bank

52:20

making a loan to a

52:23

Japanese fishery. It's these

52:25

kinds of transactions. But

52:27

all these transactions are denominated

52:29

in dollars. So these foreign

52:31

banks are loaning dollars into

52:33

existence and creating dollar loans.

52:35

Now the problem is, now

52:38

suddenly all these external corporations,

52:40

counterparties, entities, hedge funds, whatever,

52:42

now they all have dollar

52:44

debt, they have to service.

52:47

And since they're earning in their

52:49

local currency, they have to

52:51

go to the local foreign exchange

52:53

market, transact those rupees or

52:55

yen or yuan back into dollars

52:57

and then pay off their

52:59

dollar debts. When the

53:01

dollar system or when the dollar

53:03

or Dixie weakens, it makes it easier

53:05

and cheaper for them to pay

53:07

off their debt. That means that those

53:10

entities, those fisheries, those mining companies,

53:12

those oil suppliers will go out and

53:14

borrow even more. Because for one

53:16

interest rates probably at home are still

53:18

relatively low and for two the

53:20

dollars a week comparatively so a great

53:22

time to borrow and Because again

53:24

your incomes are artificially high because of

53:26

this weaker dollar because of that

53:28

More and more dollar debt builds up

53:30

in the system more and more

53:33

people are leveraged and more and more

53:35

people are highly leveraged And that

53:37

means that every time the dollar system

53:39

starts to spike again It causes

53:41

more damage and then the system demands

53:43

even more liquidity to bail everybody

53:45

out But as long as the dollar

53:47

remains weak that actually encourages dollar

53:49

borrowing that encourages the creation of more

53:51

debt and that means that again

53:54

future demand for for dollars grows because

53:56

in a system where you know,

53:58

money is loaned into existence, the more

54:00

money you loan into existence, the

54:02

more demand you create for that future

54:04

dollar. Very

54:06

interesting. And yeah,

54:08

I mean, the Euro dollar mark is probably

54:10

huge. I wonder if

54:12

stablecoins gives, you know, sort of the

54:15

Fed a little bit more ability to

54:17

rein that in. Do

54:20

you think that right now with the

54:22

trade wars, the currency wars, it seems

54:24

like tariffs? You

54:26

know, it seems like and I

54:29

want to talk a little

54:31

bit about Trump and maybe your

54:33

take there, but Well, let's

54:35

start maybe with Trump What if

54:37

Trump just decides to announce

54:39

tariffs and cancel them randomly for

54:42

like the next quarter What

54:44

do you make of that approach

54:46

or what this could do? So

54:49

that's kind of this like

54:51

chaotic you know, tariff or

54:53

trade policy that would honestly

54:55

be emblematic and would probably

54:57

be an echo of the

54:59

BOJ's own, you know, crazy

55:01

monetary policy of raising rates

55:03

and increasing illicit control, but

55:05

still running QE. What

55:08

Trump is trying to do is

55:10

shake out the global trade network and

55:12

figure out who is amenable to

55:14

his position and who is not, right?

55:17

So first by raising tariffs, he basically use

55:19

the the stake approach and said, you

55:21

know, you guys all better come to the

55:23

table to negotiate and to lower your

55:26

tariffs or to basically get rid of your

55:28

unfair trade practices you have with the

55:30

US. And then by canceling and pausing everything,

55:32

he was basically, you know, seeing which

55:34

ones had, you know, at the end of

55:36

it had to come to the table,

55:38

we're ready to talk and which ones were

55:40

still, still stubbornly resisting him like China. So

55:43

that's, that's, I guess the,

55:46

the. pro optimistic view on what

55:48

he's he's doing. The pessimistic

55:50

view obviously is that he raised

55:52

these tariffs and he wanted

55:54

to start essentially a global trade

55:56

war against against the global

55:58

community. And this started causing massive

56:01

stress in not only the

56:03

US Treasury but also the US

56:05

equity markets as well as

56:07

especially global equity markets and global

56:09

bond markets. We saw the

56:11

20 year rise to almost or

56:14

to above 5 % the third

56:16

year at 4 .998. We

56:18

saw a credit spread start to blow

56:20

out. We saw the yield curve, the 10

56:22

-2 year yield curve start to un -invert

56:24

at the fastest pace since before COVID. And

56:28

overall, the system started

56:31

melting down. Nikkei was down

56:33

like 10%. The Shanghai

56:35

composite was down 12%, 15

56:37

% at one point. And

56:40

global stock markets were starting to

56:42

sell off hard and the contraction

56:44

was beginning. And it was because

56:46

of this aforementioned effect of... debt

56:49

in the system, creating a

56:51

liquidity -dependent system that needs

56:53

constant inflows of new cash

56:55

to stay running. And

56:57

once you threaten that cash, once

57:00

you threaten tariffs, once you

57:02

threaten restrictive economic or trade policy,

57:04

that starts to send the whole system crumbling down.

57:07

And so Trump had to panic and acquiesce

57:09

and say, okay, there's 90 days. pause on

57:11

tariffs, we're not going to go as hard

57:14

as we as we wanted to, because there

57:16

was just too much chaos in the global

57:18

system. So those are the two, I would

57:20

say, takes on this recent action. I

57:23

want to. So during COVID, I'm

57:27

not saying definitively what

57:29

went on the other, but

57:31

it seemed like governments

57:33

acted somewhat or incomplete concert

57:35

from lockdowns to money

57:37

printing. And there's different

57:39

conspiracy theories. You know, I've even

57:41

heard now Trump's angry at China

57:43

because they ruined his first presidency

57:45

with COVID and maybe they weren't

57:48

working in concert. But do you

57:50

think there's any chance that the

57:52

United States and China and all

57:54

those central banking currencies are countries

57:56

are working together in concert now

57:58

to devalue their currencies and to

58:00

print and they need sort of

58:02

like a currency war in public

58:04

to do so? Like

58:06

Trump announces a tariff. He's trying

58:08

to push the Federal Reserve

58:10

maybe to lower rates. And

58:13

the Chinese government said, hey, we're going to

58:15

respond in kind. We're going to have to take

58:17

a hit. We're going to have to print

58:19

so that you guys don't take the full hit

58:21

of the tariffs. We're going to have to

58:23

do an in kind and fight back. And all

58:25

the fighting leads to the benefit of them

58:27

all getting to print. Do you think

58:30

there's a possibility they're kind of working together? Yeah,

58:32

there could be, you know,

58:34

there's this issue of global,

58:36

you know, basically a global

58:38

sovereign debt crisis where it's

58:40

not only the US or

58:43

Japan, but it's basically every

58:45

single sovereign is facing a

58:47

debt and fiscal situation that's

58:49

worsening by the minute. And

58:51

so when you have a world

58:53

that's kind of on the same

58:55

clock, kind of on the

58:57

same path and trajectory in terms of debt,

58:59

it's not a conceivable that they could

59:02

be, you know, trying to work together to

59:04

devalue and to weaken their currencies in

59:06

order to stave off deflationary collapse. Now,

59:08

the actual practicality of that

59:10

is much more difficult to do,

59:12

right? If you're, if you're

59:14

in Japan, and you devalue

59:16

first, right, let's say you

59:19

let the yen blow out to

59:21

200 or 250 to the

59:23

dollar, then you receive an A

59:26

boost in exports, you receive a

59:28

growth of economic activity that you

59:30

wouldn't otherwise see if everyone else

59:32

was devalued at the same time.

59:35

So it's kind of like a

59:37

bigger than neighbor strategy of whoever

59:39

devalues first wins. At

59:41

least in their eyes, right? Wins

59:43

is in gets some stimulated nominal growth

59:45

and gets inflation and gets to

59:47

deal with their debt situation faster than

59:50

the other people. But I

59:52

think functionally, that's just too hard to

59:54

pull off. So. see this

59:56

as each nation kind of

59:58

thinking it thinking of it for

1:00:00

them themselves and trying to

1:00:02

you know position themselves so that

1:00:04

they can continue to receive

1:00:06

favorable economic treatment from the US

1:00:08

and the US you know

1:00:10

Trump ostensibly at least is trying

1:00:13

to do his protectionist trade

1:00:15

measures which he promised in his

1:00:17

campaign for you know for

1:00:19

the middle -class Midwestern media American

1:00:21

Rust Belt you know, factory

1:00:23

worker, he wants to ensure that they don't

1:00:25

lose their jobs and that maybe even that

1:00:27

the jobs come back and their their ability

1:00:29

to produce and to manufacture here in the

1:00:31

U .S. is is returned. We'll

1:00:33

see. What is what is the

1:00:35

T .I .N .A doctrine? Tina,

1:00:38

there is no alternative. So this

1:00:41

again, it's relates to dollar milkshake

1:00:43

theory or, you know, dollar end

1:00:45

game theory. The problem

1:00:47

with a global reserve currency

1:00:49

is that it's the king

1:00:51

daddy of all network effects.

1:00:54

It's kind of like a

1:00:56

language or even a

1:00:58

social network. Creating a

1:01:00

competitor to Facebook or a competitor to

1:01:02

Twitter as they currently exist and

1:01:04

as we've seen with blue sky and

1:01:06

threads and all these things, it's

1:01:08

not very feasible, especially on the large

1:01:11

side, like getting a large amount

1:01:13

of people to actually adopt it. And

1:01:15

the same is true of a

1:01:17

global reserve currency. When you

1:01:19

have a current incumbent system like the dollar,

1:01:22

which is already entrenched, which already has a

1:01:24

ton of proponents, which already has a ton

1:01:26

of usage, which already

1:01:28

has a ton of dollar

1:01:30

debt that has inbuilt

1:01:32

demand for dollars in the

1:01:34

future, then moving off

1:01:36

of that system is very,

1:01:38

very difficult. And any other

1:01:40

fiat, has the same

1:01:42

systemic issues that the dollar

1:01:45

has, right? If you're the

1:01:47

British pound, if you're the Canadian

1:01:49

dollar, if you're even the Chinese Yuan

1:01:51

or the Russian ruble or, you

1:01:53

know, the Indian rupee and you say,

1:01:55

oh, I want my currency to

1:01:57

be the global reserve currency. Well, basically

1:01:59

every single country has a high

1:02:01

debt to GDP. Every single country has

1:02:03

worsening demographics. Every single country

1:02:06

has seen slower stagnant growth for the last

1:02:08

10 years. And every

1:02:10

single country Doesn't have the

1:02:12

network effect of External demand for the

1:02:14

dollar that the US already has so

1:02:16

that creates the situation where there's not

1:02:18

really an alternative a fiat alternative I

1:02:20

should copy out There's no fiat alternative

1:02:23

to the dollar system because the dollar

1:02:25

system is just You know

1:02:27

too strong and too entrenched to

1:02:29

be displaced by another fiat now

1:02:31

there could be a situation obviously

1:02:33

like we've said where Bitcoin can

1:02:35

become the new global reserve currency

1:02:37

and then that is used to

1:02:39

settle international trade and that international

1:02:41

trade You know basically builds up

1:02:43

Bitcoin balances between nations and then

1:02:45

those nations can use it if

1:02:47

they want to actually use this

1:02:49

money even internally within their borders,

1:02:51

but that's you know, that's a

1:02:54

much much grander Vision

1:02:56

and that's I think actually the

1:02:58

the conclusion of dollar end game is

1:03:00

that's how you actually finally killed

1:03:02

the dollar system is by adopting a

1:03:04

completely new Global reserve currency that's

1:03:06

completely disconnected and not reliant on the

1:03:08

old fiat dollar system Okay, we're

1:03:10

gonna touch on that in a second.

1:03:12

We're gonna round out here though

1:03:14

with a little bit of rapid fire

1:03:16

What do you make of Warren

1:03:19

Buffett sitting on 300 billion dollars in

1:03:21

cash right now? That

1:03:23

was a brilliant move by him.

1:03:25

I mean he sold essentially the

1:03:27

top and Sat on on cash

1:03:29

and just earned interest on it

1:03:31

and I think he's waiting for

1:03:33

a maybe a more severe pull

1:03:35

down or maybe he's already started

1:03:37

accumulating some shares of some of

1:03:39

the companies he wants but I

1:03:41

think ultimately it also represents a

1:03:43

lack of decision or maybe an

1:03:45

amount of an amount of indecision

1:03:47

that he has around his next

1:03:50

Financial investment, right? What's the next company

1:03:52

to really to buy it? The reason

1:03:54

why is because there's not really any

1:03:56

good deals anymore, right? Everything's expensive especially

1:03:58

in the US and there's not really

1:04:00

any reason to invest outside of the

1:04:02

US because every small country like we

1:04:04

said Has all the problems the US

1:04:06

has and more and doesn't have external

1:04:08

demand for their currency or their their

1:04:10

assets so I think he's just waiting

1:04:12

to find a good opportunity and I

1:04:14

hope that He goes on the rabbit

1:04:16

hole far enough to lead him to

1:04:18

Bitcoin, but it's really hard for him

1:04:20

because his generation is so old You

1:04:22

know, I think they're the the the

1:04:25

silent generation like even before the baby

1:04:27

boomer baby boomers because I think he

1:04:29

was born in the 30s There's so

1:04:31

entrenched in their ways and so old -school

1:04:33

and they're thinking that I think it's

1:04:35

gonna be difficult for them to adopt

1:04:37

Bitcoin in any meaningful way my Strongly

1:04:39

held opinion My strong opinion

1:04:41

held loosely without any research Because I

1:04:43

grew up a warm buff fan, but I

1:04:45

would say you know maybe over the

1:04:47

last 20 years He's probably a mid -range

1:04:49

hedge fund manager or mutual fund manager at

1:04:51

best if you look at his results

1:04:53

I said that's James lavish. He googled the

1:04:55

chart. He said no man like he's

1:04:57

been solid Lynn Alden just put up a

1:04:59

tweet or a post the other day

1:05:02

that kind of made him look like a

1:05:04

mid I do think he you know

1:05:06

if I remember correctly he came to Apple

1:05:08

late the internet and electronics and tech

1:05:10

late, but I think it was a great

1:05:12

move from then. He could

1:05:14

still come to Bitcoin late. There

1:05:16

are early video moments where he

1:05:19

seemed to get Bitcoin quite early on.

1:05:21

Him and Bill Gates, before they

1:05:23

changed their tune, maybe thinking about their

1:05:25

Bank of America shares. To

1:05:28

round it out, who is

1:05:30

Weston Nakamura? You were just in

1:05:32

Japan. Yeah, Weston

1:05:34

is a macro writer a commentator and

1:05:36

expert on the Bank of Japan

1:05:38

and he was one of the main

1:05:40

features of the of the pot

1:05:42

of the of several podcasts are recorded

1:05:44

there but also of the interviews

1:05:46

and the documentary that we did down

1:05:49

there and here's one of the

1:05:51

main experts we consulted and asked about

1:05:53

you know, the Japanese economy, Japanese financial and

1:05:56

economic situation. And I highly recommend everyone go

1:05:58

out and check out work as well. If

1:06:00

you're interested in learning more about the Bank

1:06:02

of Japan. Well, we'll learn more

1:06:04

when your doc comes out. Roaring

1:06:06

Kitty. I mean, is he going to make

1:06:09

a comeback and appearance? Is he going to

1:06:11

become a Bitcoin or is he Satoshi? What's

1:06:13

going on? Who's Roaring Kitty? What's

1:06:15

going on here? Sure. So

1:06:17

Roaring Kitty is the moniker used

1:06:19

by Keith Gill, who's a retail

1:06:21

trader and investor. in

1:06:23

2020 who started actually in

1:06:25

2019 he started buying GameStop

1:06:27

shares and options and then

1:06:30

he doubled down essentially in

1:06:32

2020 and made you know

1:06:34

the height like 48 million

1:06:36

dollars during the GameStop initial

1:06:38

squeeze on GameStop and He

1:06:41

famously did not sell his shares

1:06:43

or or well he sold his options

1:06:45

But he exercised that use the

1:06:47

money to exercise and buy more shares

1:06:49

did not sell his shares and

1:06:51

did not lower his position even during

1:06:54

the huge drawdown So he's kind

1:06:56

of entered a legend status in the

1:06:58

community where everyone just kind of

1:07:00

views him as this like godlike figure

1:07:02

with balls of steel and you

1:07:04

know hands of diamonds that doesn't care

1:07:06

about price action for his asset. So,

1:07:09

Rohrenkitti returned in May

1:07:11

and June of 2024 with

1:07:13

a mass flurry of

1:07:15

tweets and the stock price

1:07:17

subsequently started to run

1:07:19

extremely, extremely hard. He

1:07:21

also was buying like, I think, 20

1:07:23

million share equivalent worth of options. And

1:07:26

he also returned mysteriously

1:07:28

with a portfolio that was

1:07:30

worth over 260 million

1:07:32

dollars. So somehow, during

1:07:34

the last four years,

1:07:36

he five -exed his portfolio. We

1:07:39

think by selling options covered calls

1:07:41

and cash secured puts on the

1:07:43

shares that he already had. In

1:07:47

any in any regard Roaring Kitty

1:07:49

had basically done his homework. He has

1:07:52

a CFA. He used to work

1:07:54

at Mass Mutual as a financial advisor.

1:07:56

He's intelligent. He's well researched. He

1:07:58

knows what he's doing and he basically

1:08:00

was able to to transfer his

1:08:02

his Investing knowledge in stocks into a

1:08:04

massive long GameStop position that obviously

1:08:06

paid off for him very very well

1:08:08

And so he's only tweeted once

1:08:10

I think in the last four months,

1:08:13

but his last tweet was Or

1:08:15

at least the last tweet that I

1:08:17

can recall was a time magazine

1:08:19

cover and the number 420 was on

1:08:21

it And of course, that's a

1:08:23

meme number with smoking weed, but also

1:08:25

420 is April 20th, and that's

1:08:27

coming up here in five days. So

1:08:29

there's some tinfoil that he's going

1:08:31

to start 20 again here in the

1:08:34

next week or so, actually. He's

1:08:36

like the bankski of equities.

1:08:39

You know, there's like, there's sort of like

1:08:41

an artistic, mysterious part of the whole

1:08:43

thing with him. I

1:08:45

think you said on Walker's fantastic podcast,

1:08:47

you can expect life altering change

1:08:49

from a system that depends on this

1:08:51

kind of grotesque. Parasitism

1:08:54

to survive really what we need

1:08:56

is just complete reform of the entire

1:08:58

financial system and that starts with

1:09:00

Bitcoin that starts with the money on

1:09:02

your Substack, I believe it says

1:09:04

wake up Neo follow the white rabbit

1:09:06

You said you know something earlier

1:09:08

around like if we're gonna kill the

1:09:11

dollar, you know the dollar end

1:09:13

game It's gonna play out a little

1:09:15

bit like this. So maybe we'll

1:09:17

end on two questions there Do you

1:09:19

I mean do you think the

1:09:21

dollar is gonna die? And

1:09:23

what kind of time frame would you

1:09:25

put on that, even in maybe broad

1:09:27

terms? My opinion has

1:09:29

really changed on, especially this last

1:09:31

maybe even four months. Really?

1:09:35

Why has your opinion changed? Has

1:09:37

it shortened or lengthened? Lengthened

1:09:39

a lot. And I used

1:09:41

to see a faster death. I

1:09:44

think that Bitcoin still ascends to affinity,

1:09:46

but I see a much longer road

1:09:48

ahead for the dollar through stablecoins. Bit

1:09:51

the Bitcoin dollar and I'm just

1:09:53

trying to grok that so I'd

1:09:55

love to hear your take That's

1:09:57

actually what I would agree with

1:09:59

The way that the again the

1:10:02

way that the current monetary system

1:10:04

is structured is that all of

1:10:06

their fiat's will fail first before

1:10:08

the dollar finally fails and actually

1:10:10

ironically the dollar strengthening is a

1:10:12

sign of stress in the system

1:10:14

not a sign of you know

1:10:16

American ingenuity or American innovation or

1:10:19

American exceptionalism. So

1:10:22

the longer the system goes on,

1:10:24

like we said, and the weaker the

1:10:26

dollar gets, the stronger it gets. And

1:10:28

the longer the system goes on, in

1:10:31

general, even with the dollar index staying

1:10:33

flat, the more debt is created again,

1:10:35

because every single year, you

1:10:37

know, you have like, let's say, let's just

1:10:39

put numbers on it, let's say there's $10

1:10:41

trillion dollar debt outstanding, and that's rated at

1:10:43

5%. well to pay off

1:10:45

all that debt you now need five

1:10:47

percent more dollars the next year to

1:10:49

pay that off and those dollars mostly

1:10:51

are loaned into existence by the banks

1:10:53

and so now the next in the

1:10:55

next calendar year you have a hundred

1:10:57

point five trillion dollars of debt and

1:10:59

so again you can see at these

1:11:01

fiat systems as this time goes on

1:11:03

the debt just builds and builds and

1:11:05

builds and builds and builds and builds

1:11:07

and it just does not stop until

1:11:09

there's a major event like a major

1:11:11

war a devaluation, a

1:11:14

hyperinflation, a deflation, a

1:11:16

default, something to completely

1:11:18

reset the system. And

1:11:21

the way the global monetary system

1:11:23

is structured means that all these

1:11:25

other regional fiat will collapse first

1:11:27

and harder and basically lose their

1:11:29

energy and purchasing power into the

1:11:31

dollar before the dollar does finally

1:11:33

die. Now the dollar of course

1:11:35

will die eventually because we're talking

1:11:37

about a, you know, an entity

1:11:39

that is fighting the financial gravity

1:11:41

of ever increasing debt and ever

1:11:44

increasing QE in order to just

1:11:46

stay alive and keep the wheels

1:11:48

on the bus. And so eventually

1:11:50

that ends in disaster, but the

1:11:52

point is it ends for the

1:11:54

dollars the last man standing in

1:11:56

this game. And so of all

1:11:58

the currencies to be bearish on,

1:12:00

the dollars the worst one to

1:12:02

be bearish on for the duration

1:12:04

of this system. Now, with

1:12:07

regards to actual timeline, again,

1:12:09

I would say I

1:12:11

would take the over like 10 to

1:12:13

15 years for the dollar system to

1:12:15

really start dying. You have

1:12:18

to see major signposts like,

1:12:20

you know, the Yen

1:12:22

collapsing, the Yuan collapsing,

1:12:25

currency crisis throughout Latin America and

1:12:27

dollarization of more countries, basically

1:12:29

making more countries like El Salvador

1:12:31

or, you know, or

1:12:34

Panama adopting the dollar as a as

1:12:36

a currency and just getting rid of their

1:12:38

own, you have to see that

1:12:40

becoming much more commonplace before you start thinking that

1:12:42

we're actually towards the end of this end

1:12:44

game. We're still in the middle, I would say

1:12:47

the middle chapters. Very

1:12:49

interesting. We're probably the earliest of

1:12:51

innings. My highly

1:12:54

regarded take, because

1:12:56

I think whatever I think is

1:12:58

gonna be wrong, I can't be

1:13:00

right, I will not guess the

1:13:02

actual, especially in the short term,

1:13:04

real timeline. But what I think

1:13:06

is going to happen, maybe just in the moment, my

1:13:09

take now is the dollar dies in

1:13:11

2140, or somewhere in

1:13:13

the lead up to that as

1:13:15

Satoshi's run out, newly minted Satoshi's

1:13:17

run out. And I'll

1:13:19

go, my bulltard take on

1:13:21

Bitcoin is, I'm going to

1:13:23

go at 1 .3 million

1:13:25

by April 2026. A

1:13:27

little extended cycle there. And

1:13:30

a true 2017 play towards, you

1:13:32

know, the middle to the back end

1:13:34

of 2017 and continuing on. And

1:13:36

maybe we don't have four -year cycles

1:13:38

after that. But again, that's not

1:13:40

financial advice. That's probably do the opposite.

1:13:42

It's like a Kramer. I'm like

1:13:44

an inverse signal. But

1:13:46

what do you, let's just

1:13:49

wrap it up with Bitcoin. I

1:13:51

mean, is Bitcoin going

1:13:53

to be a major, major

1:13:55

inflection point this year

1:13:57

with sort strategic reserves

1:14:00

in the US or is this

1:14:02

sort of like very early on

1:14:04

and it's going to take a

1:14:06

few more years or even a

1:14:08

decade or two for a lot

1:14:10

of these things for Bitcoin to

1:14:12

really move into more mainstream macroeconomics

1:14:14

from a central banking point of

1:14:16

view or that they'd have to

1:14:18

react at a really high level

1:14:20

this year or come out stacking

1:14:22

or something. How do you see

1:14:25

2025 for Bitcoin? Yeah,

1:14:27

I think that this is going to be

1:14:29

very tumultuous year. And it's already proven to

1:14:31

be that way. And the reason why, again,

1:14:33

is because there's so many macro factors that

1:14:35

are driving in different directions for Bitcoin. We

1:14:37

have the end of the

1:14:39

excess reverse repo and the TGA

1:14:41

facilities and the BTFP, which

1:14:44

were being used as excess liquidity

1:14:46

for the financial system in

1:14:48

the wake of the QT programs

1:14:50

enacted by the Fed. We

1:14:52

have obviously a recession

1:14:54

appearing around the corner and

1:14:56

potential wave of defaults

1:14:58

and loss of investor and

1:15:01

of consumer confidence in

1:15:03

the economy and the markets.

1:15:06

But we also have a potential easing

1:15:08

cycle upon us with the Fed

1:15:10

starting to cut rates and Trump pressuring

1:15:12

Powell to cut faster into... potentially

1:15:14

even restart QE and it's important to

1:15:16

note right we've never had in

1:15:19

the last 15 years we've never had

1:15:21

an easing cycle in which or

1:15:23

I should say a cutting cycle in

1:15:25

which there was no quantitative easing

1:15:27

so if you take that into account

1:15:29

even though obviously cutting rates doesn't

1:15:31

mean QE immediately it always means QE

1:15:34

eventually and so if that's the

1:15:36

case then this cutting cycle, if it

1:15:38

ends at 1 % or ends at

1:15:40

zero, wherever we end up with

1:15:42

the terminal rate, it's going to mean

1:15:44

that there's probably going to be

1:15:46

QE attached to that. And QE is

1:15:49

always bullish for Bitcoin for gold

1:15:51

and for risk assets in general. So

1:15:53

I would expect, you know, essentially

1:15:55

like the worst the middle of the year

1:15:57

gets, the better the end of the year

1:15:59

is because the more crisis

1:16:02

that gets caused and sparked by

1:16:04

Trump and the trade war

1:16:06

and banking panics and what have

1:16:08

you, will cause more QE

1:16:10

in the end and QE will

1:16:12

pump up asset prices, but

1:16:14

specifically Bitcoin because of its sensitivity

1:16:16

to global liquidity and fed

1:16:18

liquidity so tightly. Yeah.

1:16:20

I mean, the first half of the year is shaping up

1:16:22

to be nothing like I thought it would be probably

1:16:24

the same for the second half of the year and maybe

1:16:26

the rest of the decade, but it's going to be

1:16:28

a wild ride. Maybe Bitcoin will be every

1:16:30

day every every 84k for the rest of

1:16:32

the decade, you know, and we'll have a real

1:16:34

stable coin there at least one Bitcoin equals one

1:16:36

Bitcoin and that's something we can count on Proving

1:16:38

bull your fountain of knowledge. I love talking to

1:16:40

you. We'll have to have you back soon. This

1:16:43

has been so dope I'll leave it to you

1:16:45

for any parting words let people know where

1:16:47

they can find you in your work Sure.

1:16:49

Yeah, thanks for having me on

1:16:51

Tedrick. It's been a it's been a

1:16:53

pleasure. It's been too long We definitely

1:16:55

do these a little bit more often

1:16:57

I have a Twitter account at

1:16:59

Peruvian underscore bull and in the bio

1:17:02

you can find my My links I

1:17:04

have a sub stack. I have a

1:17:06

YouTube channel. I also have a

1:17:08

book dollar end game if you want

1:17:10

to buy it on on Amazon that's

1:17:12

also Available for free on my website

1:17:14

or on just Reddit or medium if

1:17:16

you look for dollar end game Reddit,

1:17:18

it'll pop up. There's

1:17:20

also a Nostra account and the

1:17:22

end pub is linked in my extended

1:17:24

bio. Again, if you click that

1:17:27

little extended bio, see more. The Nostra

1:17:29

will pop up and you'll see

1:17:31

my Nostra account there. I try to

1:17:33

publish there every couple of days.

1:17:35

Not as active as Twitter, but I'm

1:17:37

active on there as well. You

1:17:39

can find me on all the socials

1:17:41

and follow me. Very

1:17:43

cool. Hope to see you in Vegas. Awesome.

1:17:46

I'll see you there. Thanks

1:17:48

for tuning in to this episode of

1:17:50

the Bitcoin Matrix. If you enjoyed the

1:17:52

conversation, don't forget to like, subscribe, and

1:17:54

drop a comment below with any questions

1:17:56

or thoughts you may have. We'd love

1:17:58

to hear from you. You can support

1:18:00

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1:18:04

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1:18:08

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1:18:11

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1:18:13

let's keep growing this community together. Stay

1:18:15

curious, keep stacking, and I'll catch you

1:18:17

in the next one. you