HECTIC AI SHOWNOTES CAUSE WE ARE LAZY, GOBBLESS.

Enjoy!

The Two Jacks - Episode 109: Election Update, Tariff Tremors & Online Policing

Hosted by: Hong Kong Jack & Jack the Insider

Welcome to Episode 109 of The Two Jacks! This week, Jack and Jackdive into the thick of the Australian federal election, dissect President Trump's latest tariff moves, debate the policing of online speech, and touch on French politics, climate action, and sports.

Key Topics Discussed:

1. Australian Federal Election (00:00:20)

• Campaign Update: Entering the second week.
• Polling: Labor showing potential for a majority (News Poll 52-48), similar to other polls (51-49 to 52-48), despite a low primary vote (~32.5%). Recalls Labor's 2022 win with a similar primary vote.
• Leaders' Debate: Discussion of the Sky News debate between Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese. Joel views it as a draw, though Albanese was declared the winner by audience vote (approx. 44-35).
• Campaign Weaknesses (00:17:45): Both Jacks agree the campaign lacks substance, particularly on crucial issues like productivity and housing affordability. They note the difficulty for citizens needing to live far from CBDs (e.g., South Morang vs. Fitzroy historically) and criticize the parties for avoiding hard decisions.

1. US Tariffs & Global Economy (00:28:00 & 00:48:04)

• Trump's Tariff Policy: Discussion on the imposition and subsequent 90-day delay of new tariffs on countries like Vietnam (47%), the Philippines (17%), and others. Standard 10% tariff remains elsewhere.
• Negotiations: Reports of Vietnam, Thailand, and Japan engaging or preparing to negotiate, though Trump's claims about eagerness are questioned. Japan plans a "comprehensive response."
• Market Impact (00:30:08): Initial $9 trillion market loss, followed by a significant S&P 500 recovery (largest since 2008, but still below January levels). Oil prices jumped, and US bond yields fell, raising debt crisis concerns. Jack emphasizes the importance of bond yields (cost of borrowing for the US government).
• Motivations & Consequences (00:40:07): Is it an assertion of US economic muscle? Jack notes bipartisan support for the idea (feeling the US gets the short end), but the hosts critique the erratic rollout. Potential consequences include US inflation, slowed GDP growth, and job losses.
• Listener Feedback (Lawrence) (00:48:04): Criticizes the "schizophrenic" messaging (tariffs fixing jobs and deficits simultaneously) and the floated (but unconfirmed by Trump admin) idea of abolishing income tax.
• Outlook: Potential shift towards multilateral trade negotiations among other countries.

1. Listener Feedback: ABC Radio (00:45:51)

• Listener Lawrence reflects on the Jacks' previous comments about changes at ABC Radio, noting a perceived shift in their stance from wanting "new blood" to "bemoaning changes."
• Joel's Clarification: Concern is about management bringing in people with FM radio backgrounds lacking national broadcaster experience, not against new faces generally.
• Jack's Clarification: Agrees on needing turnover ("new voices") but questions the strategy of chasing a youth demographic on ABC Radio, suggesting consolidation of the existing audience is better.

1. Social Media Censorship & Online Dangers (UK Focus) (00:51:20)

• UK Arrests: Report from The Times: British police making ~33 arrests daily in 2023/24 for "offensive" online posts causing "annoyance, inconvenience or anxiety" (12,183 arrests total), a 58% rise since 2019.
• Policing Concerns: Many arrests lead to questioning and release without charge, raising questions about efficient use of police resources. Jack mentions the decriminalization of burglary adding context.
• Historical Context (00:54:31): Jack traces the issue back to the late 1990s and the concept of "non-crime hate incidents" arising from the Stephen Lawrence inquiry, arguing it introduced subjectivity and inconsistency compared to investigating objective crimes. He critiques arresting people before establishing if a crime occurred.
• Nuance & Online Harms (00:56:40): Joel notes arrests might relate to other offenses alongside "malicious communications." While agreeing trivial cases waste resources, he highlights the dark side of social media, including severe online bullying (mentions group "764-JAC") and stalking, arguing police surveillance is needed for serious threats.
• Under-16 Social Media Ban (01:02:37): Joel reflects on the Albanese government's ban, admitting he initially opposed it but is reconsidering due to the severity of online harms affecting children.

1. French Politics Update (01:03:47)

• Far-right leader Marine Le Pen vows presidential run, controversially comparing herself to Martin Luther King Jr. and Alexei Navalny.
• Jordan Bardella (29 y.o. National Rally Chairman) emerges as a potential alternative, stating he could run if Le Pen is unable. Both Jacks see this as a likely and possibly strategically better outcome for the party.

1. Climate Action & Protests (01:06:00)

• Discussion on Extinction Rebellion protests (e.g., Sydney Harbour Bridge closure) and their effectiveness versus public disruption.
• Critique of proposed policies like banning private jets or frequent flyer taxes as unworkable and unhelpful grandstanding.
• Jack jokes he's the "Greta Thunberg of Hong Kong" due to his low carbon footprint (no car, little travel).

1. Sporting Roundup

• Cricket (01:10:00): Sheffield Shield Final recap (Victoria vs WA), WA wins due to finishing top after a draw. Historical anecdote about Bill Ponsford's marathon innings in the 1948 final. Marcus Harris's recent form (161 in Shield, 138 for Lancashire).
• AFL (01:19:30): Discussion on Tasmania's potential AFL team, stadium funding debates, and the Gather Round concept's success in South Australia and potential future locations.

1. Final Listener Note & Sign Off (01:29:46)

• Listener CD provides follow-up on a previous discussion about Basil Zempilis, noting his uncle (Con Zempilis) was the Chief Stipendiary Magistrate for Western Australia.
• The Jacks wrap up Episode 109.