0:19

Hello and welcome to the to pivot. The

0:21

world's world's most agreeable soccer

0:23

analytics podcast. I am Cayley. We are

0:25

are coming to you heading

0:27

into a We got the league cup. We got

0:29

the FAA cup. of We got the time we got the

0:31

FA League. So of course it's a talk about

0:34

the Premier League a break. we got a little bit

0:36

of a break. of a chance to a little

0:38

bit chance to take stock. League the Premier

0:40

League table is pretty weird.

0:42

interesting if was really interesting, if you

0:44

start both putting together our numbers

0:46

in in of this, of this. We found, broadly,

0:48

that the Premier League is is mostly

0:50

weird. the expectations expectations

0:53

that most of us had,

0:55

us included. of us, had, most of

0:57

us the coming into the season, of

0:59

in a number of cases not

1:01

been born out by real team

1:03

performances, leading to an unusually shaped

1:05

Premier League table. So talk thought

1:08

we'd talk it through. I am

1:10

joined by Mike Goodman. looking forward

1:12

you looking forward to not having any Premier League on

1:14

the schedule for a bit? a bit? I am

1:17

very excited excited about the League

1:19

Cup Paramount on The music you heard baby!

1:21

way is, The music you heard

1:23

on the way download, please download,

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subscribe, and make us happy, .patreon .com

1:27

slash Double Pivot, lots of fun

1:29

stuff going on in Lots of fun

1:32

stuff going we in the an extended

1:34

in on riff on Lee books. books. Well, there

1:36

there are a lot of them.

1:38

There sure are. of A lot of

1:40

fun going on in the book

1:42

channel. Anyway, Anyway. Yeah, let's talk about

1:45

the table. I the table. It's

1:47

sort of weird, because because

1:49

usually there there are

1:52

two possibilities and they

1:54

don't meet. One they don't

1:56

meet one possibility

1:58

is like in a team

2:00

is in a

2:02

weird place in the table and

2:05

you look at their numbers and you're

2:07

like, oh, ha ha, that's nothing. It's

2:09

weirdness from differing from XG and it

2:11

will probably go away or Lester will

2:13

win the title, one or the other.

2:15

You know, and then the other possibility

2:18

is, oh wow, that's real. Like, there

2:20

are what their underlying numbers suggest and

2:22

where did that come from? And is

2:24

it, like, do we believe this or

2:26

not? And then we do the analysis.

2:28

And There's like a

2:31

bunch of teams right now that

2:33

are sort of in the middle

2:35

of that Venn diagram in which,

2:37

like, there is something very real

2:40

about some performances, Norwich, Nottingham Forest,

2:42

Bournemouth, Fulham, I think, are the

2:44

three teams I would zero in

2:46

on. And then, like, any other

2:49

direction, Tottenham. There's something very real

2:51

going on in their performances, but

2:53

also... Their position in the table

2:55

is somewhat exaggerated and quirky and

2:58

a little bit odd, even taking

3:00

that into account, is how I'm

3:02

thinking about the table right now.

3:04

You can sort of pull off

3:07

the two ends of the table.

3:09

The fact that South Hampton is

3:11

at the very bottom and Liverpool

3:13

and Arsenal at the very top,

3:16

that is like... What the numbers

3:18

show the the gap that aren't

3:20

Liverpool have opened up in in

3:23

goal difference in expected goal difference

3:25

if you adjust for red cards

3:27

if you adjust to just 11

3:29

v 11 what you find is

3:32

Liverpool are a very small amount

3:34

have been a very small amount

3:36

better than Arsenal I'm sure other

3:38

systems could find it slightly differently

3:41

you could do different kinds of

3:43

adjustments but There's not much of

3:45

a gap at the top, but

3:47

there is a really big gap

3:50

between Liverpool and Arsenal and the

3:52

rest of the table. And so

3:54

if you say, well, in the

3:56

real world, Arsenal did get those...

3:59

red cards and so they're somewhat

4:01

further behind Liverpool and somewhat closer

4:03

to the rest of the table.

4:05

That's it. That's just simple. That's

4:08

easy. And the teams at the

4:10

bottom of the table are terrible.

4:12

And that's what's reflected in the

4:14

XG too. I mean, that's, that's

4:17

all, there's, there's nothing surprising there,

4:19

right? Like, Liverpool are reflective in

4:21

the XG as an excellent, excellent,

4:23

excellent team. And then you can

4:26

make those adjustments and if they're

4:28

closer together than that. Chelsea have

4:30

been a little bit weird in

4:32

the path they've taken to being

4:35

clearly the third best team in

4:37

the Premier League I think in

4:39

that they started off and we

4:41

had questions and then they were

4:44

very very good for a while

4:46

and now they've sort of followed

4:48

off of that peak in their

4:50

performances but they're like a very

4:53

big throw it in the average

4:55

team I think and you throw

4:57

it all on the average and

4:59

you get yeah like they're the

5:02

third best team in the Premier

5:04

League but somewhat behind. the top

5:06

two. Like there's a clear gap.

5:08

Yeah, and so we'll do it

5:11

more of a Chelsea podcast. Now

5:13

the thing that I could say

5:15

to this is what you say,

5:17

obviously Chelsea are the next best,

5:20

but in fact, Bournemouth are plus

5:22

14.6 expected goal difference. They are

5:24

third in the expected goal difference

5:26

table on FBI. They are closer

5:29

to Arsenal and Newcastle's in there

5:31

too. And so... Shouldn't the story

5:33

here really be that Bournemouth are

5:35

one of the very best teams

5:38

in the Premier League? Yes. Now,

5:40

the XG overstates it slightly because

5:42

of penalties. Exactly overstates it a

5:44

lot. Yeah. Because of penalties. They

5:47

have a plus five penalty difference.

5:49

Yeah. That's huge. Just the penalty

5:51

difference takes them below Chelsea. That's

5:53

it. Right. Yeah. But like, that

5:56

leaves them forth. Yep. And then

5:58

on top of that, they have

6:00

also been quite fortunate with red

6:02

cards in their matches. Like the

6:05

other like 2XG benefit from red

6:07

cards. You take... strip all of

6:09

that out, they are much closer

6:11

to like Man City than they

6:14

are to Chelsea. Right, that's like

6:16

fifth, maybe six for Bournemouth, and

6:18

this is what we're talking about,

6:20

right? Like, that's kind of wild.

6:23

Bournemouth are about even with Man

6:25

City in my numbers. Now, saying

6:27

that before the season... Right! Like,

6:29

the story here, and we've tracked

6:32

this a bunch, but like, the

6:34

big reason the table looks so

6:36

weird is that Man City are

6:38

not at the top of it,

6:41

and Man City are actually, like,

6:43

in a table position that reflects

6:45

the quality of their play. Just

6:47

like everybody else on this table,

6:50

it's been a little weird, because

6:52

Man City's results have been worse

6:54

than their underlying performances. Probably

6:57

for the past two months. But

6:59

their underlying performances have gotten markedly,

7:01

markedly worse. And where they've ended

7:04

up in the table with results

7:06

that have probably been somewhat worse

7:08

than justified is about where they

7:11

are. They spent a little bit

7:13

of time early in the season

7:15

running hot compared to their adults.

7:18

We were talking very early in

7:20

the season about how city did

7:22

not look as good. City did

7:25

not look like the best team

7:27

in the Premier League, but they

7:29

were getting the results, so maybe

7:32

who cares. It's regressed to the

7:34

mean. They've been worse than expected

7:36

after being better than expected and

7:39

that's how everything works. Naturally. So

7:41

I think we should probably talk

7:43

a little bit about, you know,

7:46

if you look at the XG

7:48

table, you would, the non-penalty XG

7:50

table, you'd have Bournemouth and Newcastle,

7:53

you'd have Bournemouth and Newcastle are

7:55

very, very much. in the fight

7:57

for a champions league place. they

7:59

would be, I hate the word,

8:02

deserving. It would not feel flooky

8:04

to their performances for either one

8:06

of them to play this well

8:09

for the second half of the

8:11

season and, or both, and Secure

8:13

Champions League qualification. So we've talked

8:16

a bunch about Born, but we

8:18

really haven't talked about Newcastle in

8:20

a long time. Yeah, so Newcastle,

8:23

also, like, the stats have gone

8:25

shooting up in the last six

8:27

weeks. They have been absolutely on

8:30

fire. I think you could probably

8:32

argue there's a case here that

8:34

it's just, I would say that

8:37

very, Isak is healthy and he's

8:39

very good. Yeah, Isak has been

8:41

absolutely fantastic. Isak is having a

8:44

superstar season for them. And that

8:46

makes a big difference. And then

8:48

on top of that, they have

8:51

been actually playing their plan starting

8:53

defenders sometimes. That helps. Sven Botman

8:55

is now back. Yeah. And then

8:58

on top of that, their schedule

9:00

has been pretty bifurcated. Like, the

9:02

first quarter of the season was

9:05

significantly more difficult than the second

9:07

quarter of the season. So when

9:09

you look at the swings in

9:12

the numbers, you could probably do

9:14

with some smoothing of that out,

9:16

and it would feel a little

9:18

less dramatic. Excite. They beat the

9:21

absolute crap out of Leicester City

9:23

and Ipso Channel, they had the

9:25

chance. They also beat up Aston

9:28

Aston Vila. And they like were

9:30

fair or deserved winners against United

9:32

and Tottenham those are absolutely no

9:35

like I think there's a tendency

9:37

when a team goes through a

9:39

hot stretch to overstate how you're

9:42

down playing it like you know

9:44

you want to be able to

9:46

acknowledge that yes this is a

9:49

relatively weak part of the schedule

9:51

for Newcastle and you want to

9:53

be able to be able to

9:56

like. put that into your mental

9:58

model without dismissing the hot stretches

10:00

therefore it's not!

10:03

Like, they've been

10:05

playing not well. been playing

10:07

extremely well we were saying, they're good

10:09

players saying the field at the same time. on

10:12

the field at the same time

10:14

a distinctive style, which,

10:17

which like it's really funny to

10:19

me It's really funny to

10:21

me years ago about years ago about

10:23

what's gonna happen when everybody

10:25

else realizes that Newcastle are

10:27

good. are good. And

10:30

kind of what's of what's happened is when

10:32

new castles get a lead, they play like they're not

10:34

good. not good. Not in that

10:36

they play badly, but that they they play

10:38

in a style that you

10:40

would expect an underdog to play

10:42

in if they found themselves

10:45

having a lead. I don't I don't

10:47

know quite what to make

10:49

of that exactly, Like stylistically, it's it's

10:51

extremely unique. not sure it's bad. Like I

10:53

not sure it's that they're I don't think

10:55

that they're letting teams back into games in

10:57

ways that they shouldn't be, be. but it

10:59

is kind of wild to watch a

11:01

team that a team that early, like

11:04

when they are chasing games

11:06

and when they are chasing game and

11:08

even straights when they're trying to score

11:10

is clearly very good with the ball,

11:12

very good in possession, the very good at

11:14

working chances for themselves. very

11:16

good at into this without

11:18

the ball. Like. Like turn

11:21

into these without the dark

11:23

arts type stuff. dark

11:25

arts type stuff to kill

11:27

off games. And they didn't do

11:29

a good job of didn't do a good job

11:31

of it against Tottenham, for example. They often

11:33

do a good job of it. against bad

11:36

teams, they really do a good job of

11:38

it. it. Like, there is something to be said for

11:40

the idea of of, have a lead against

11:42

teams that do not excel at chasing the

11:44

game. We're going to let them chase the

11:46

game. the game, because they're bad

11:48

at. And we will be

11:50

good good defensively. Like, there's like a

11:53

line of thought thought tactically there.

11:55

But you usually see teams

11:57

do it. see teams do it. Newcastle

11:59

are... this season playing just

12:01

another version. It's very much in

12:03

line with the way they've played

12:05

under Eddie Howe for quite a

12:08

while. And this is the new

12:10

style Eddie Howe, not the way

12:12

he played when he was at

12:14

Bournemouth. His Bournemouth teams did a

12:16

lot of nothing possession and gave

12:19

up the ball and gave up

12:21

high quality chances. And it's amazing

12:23

like. You can see some of

12:25

the ideas there, but how much

12:27

they've flipped in emphasis. This Newcastle

12:29

team, they do have a fair

12:32

amount of possession, but as Mike

12:34

is saying, they use that possession

12:36

to kill games, or they use

12:38

that possession to attack quickly. They

12:40

don't build slowly ever. They're never

12:43

slowly squeezing another team with possession.

12:45

They're either killing off the game

12:47

or they're trying to get into

12:49

some kind of transition opportunity and

12:51

they spend a ton of time

12:54

happily defending without the ball, which

12:56

Bournemouth never did. It's just a

12:58

complete change from the way that

13:00

he played at Bournemouth in that

13:02

sense. And when they are at

13:05

their best, it is when they

13:07

are playing a transition style. when

13:09

they are either getting the ball

13:11

to move it quickly, when they

13:13

are pressing high, and they turn

13:16

that press on and off. This

13:18

leads to a team that is

13:20

sort of middling in possession and

13:22

middling in opposition possession, but it

13:24

is that way not because they're

13:26

sort of constantly at the middle

13:29

of the dial, but because they're

13:31

always at one side of the

13:33

dial. They're always either pressing very

13:35

high and making life hard for

13:37

you, or they're sitting back, and

13:40

they go between the two of

13:42

those. you know there's something to

13:44

be said for like looking around

13:46

at your peer group and being

13:48

like okay like what is the

13:51

thing they are not doing that

13:53

we can do that we can

13:55

recruit talent to like fill in

13:57

that gap that we can like

13:59

where that we can create competitive

14:02

advantages for ourselves And Eddie's house

14:04

career looks a little bit like

14:06

that, right? I'm not sure how

14:08

intentional it is or not. I

14:10

think, I think Hal was very

14:13

good at feeling his way to

14:15

things that work. And, and I

14:17

mean, I think, you know, I

14:19

used to sort of joke about

14:21

him at Bournemouth as being like

14:23

a cut rate arson vanger, because

14:26

he would just sort of like,

14:28

like, figure out the best possession.

14:30

stuff for his team over the

14:32

course of a season and sort

14:34

of like make it work and

14:37

he's like done that again with

14:39

Newcastle again it's exaggerated a lot

14:41

by the schedule but like this

14:43

sort of weird bifurcated system it's

14:45

not exactly how they were successful

14:48

two years ago two years ago

14:50

at Newcastle right when they were

14:52

just sort of much more Like

14:55

they still wanted to counter attack,

14:57

but they were just much more

14:59

like Willing to like like there

15:01

wasn't a lot of defensive possession

15:03

really But they were a great

15:05

counter attacking team and so this

15:07

weird by-for-kated system has come about

15:09

as teams have been like oh,

15:11

right you're good. So like You

15:14

know, it's an adjustment to the

15:16

adjustment It's working. Yeah, the other

15:18

part of it that is working

15:20

is they are making they are

15:22

getting Gima Reich into better and

15:24

better positions because like Gima Reich

15:26

is this team is the Alexander

15:28

Isak and Bruno Gima Reich team.

15:30

There's only one player on the

15:33

team who has even half as

15:35

many progressive passes as he does

15:37

this season. you know look they

15:39

can do that with gimarish because

15:41

they have tenale now and because

15:43

tenale is is is finally playing

15:45

every game basically and so he

15:47

can play deeper i don't think

15:49

he's been like great by by

15:51

any means but He is a

15:54

competent, secure passer, okay defender who

15:56

can play deeper than gimarice and

15:58

let gimarice get into better positions

16:00

and then without the ball be

16:02

supported by gimarice and you don't

16:04

lose anything. Exactly. It's very clever

16:06

the way they found a job

16:08

for Tonali that works with his

16:10

limitations. Making it into a useful

16:13

regular in a good 11 is

16:15

a good piece of managing. Means

16:17

it wasn't great business, but hey,

16:19

that's why you get a good

16:21

manager. The other thing that we've,

16:23

the other big part of this,

16:25

because Tali is not letting you

16:27

move the ball forward. And so

16:29

you would want Gima Reich at

16:31

the base of midfield to move

16:34

the ball for it if you

16:36

don't have any other answers for

16:38

that. And I think this was

16:40

a question we had for a

16:42

while because they were so dependent

16:44

on Kieran Trippier. Kieran Trippier was

16:46

the main way they moved the

16:48

ball forward. And like the Lewis

16:50

Hall signing has turned out fantastic.

16:53

Yeah, that's a really good call.

16:55

Lewis Hall is now just giving

16:57

them Kieran Trippier performances without being

16:59

a defensive siff. It's great. I

17:01

don't think it's quite, he doesn't

17:03

have the final ball that Trippier

17:05

did, but in buildup, they are

17:07

able to depend on him to

17:09

move the ball forward in situations

17:11

where Gimereich is taking up more

17:14

attacking positions. Like it just solves

17:16

the problem. And this is just

17:18

like, figuring stuff like this out

17:20

just is what Eddie how is.

17:22

And like, you know, like, as

17:24

a posit, like, that's the way

17:26

he works at his best. You

17:29

know here are the pieces I have

17:31

let's figure out how they fit together

17:33

Yeah, and yeah, I think that like

17:36

the the Lewis Hall transfer from Chelsea

17:38

is like a really Underrated part of

17:40

what is making this system work much

17:42

more than I think Tonalia Yeah, now

17:44

look I think We're spending a lot

17:47

of time talking about this and this

17:49

team is exceedingly mediocre if he's that

17:51

goes down for a month and a

17:53

half Yep Like that's just sort of

17:55

like these are all really really nice

17:58

things, but like Isak,

18:00

there were times when you talk

18:02

about a striker and you're like,

18:04

well, he's mediocre because the team

18:07

he's on isn't getting him enough

18:09

chances and isn't doing enough to

18:11

feature him and if he was

18:14

on a better team, he'd be

18:16

getting more chances and you'd see

18:18

how good he is. I think

18:20

if you put somebody who was

18:23

not Isak on top of this

18:25

Newcastle team, that is how you

18:27

would describe a lot of players.

18:30

He's sitting on top of the

18:32

team putting up unbelievably stupendous numbers

18:34

because he is really, really good.

18:36

And so I think that it's

18:39

interesting here to talk about Bournemouth

18:41

as well because Bournemouth are even

18:43

more extreme than Newcastle in there

18:45

we only want to play in

18:48

transition. Bournemouthly don't have. the defensive

18:50

possession gear so much. Which is

18:52

odd because that's one of the

18:55

things that Eriola was known for.

18:57

And his adjustment this season has

18:59

become even more pronounced than it

19:01

was last season. We did a

19:04

podcast right around the time that

19:06

Bournemouth went from being one of

19:08

the worst teams in the league

19:11

to being pretty good. And the

19:13

big change was they were just

19:15

kicking it long all the time.

19:17

And they have leaned even further

19:20

into that. This season. And they

19:22

build through midfield. Never. at this

19:24

point. I love this because I

19:26

think it is such a clear

19:29

example of like how we talk

19:31

about a manager strengths versus what

19:33

a manager strengths are. And Ariola

19:36

in Spain did a tremendous job

19:38

of exploiting mediocre Spanish defenses in

19:40

a particular And what he was

19:42

doing was, these guys are not

19:45

athletic. And so we can play

19:47

a lot in midfield as a

19:49

mean. to get in behind them

19:52

because they cannot recover. We can

19:54

pass the ball around and move

19:56

them around and then get in

19:58

behind. And if we do it

20:01

with the right kind of player

20:03

movement, we can exploit their lack

20:05

of athleticism. He comes to the

20:08

Premier League and it is obvious

20:10

quite quickly that you cannot exploit

20:12

Premier League teams for being on

20:14

athletic. And what is... and it

20:17

takes him about a month and

20:19

a month and a half. And

20:21

what we see now is he's

20:23

exploiting Premier League teams desire for

20:26

control That he is like exploiting

20:28

this moment in the Premier League

20:30

where they want five guys They

20:33

want to keep the ball. They

20:35

want to control the center and

20:37

he's like F that you guys

20:39

can all congregate in the center.

20:42

We're gonna go long and wide

20:44

is the thing I mean, I

20:46

think it's like it's easy to

20:49

say like we go long and

20:51

they do But it is very

20:53

distinctive that they play into wide

20:55

areas. They play into wide areas

20:58

and then from those sort of

21:00

like extended elbows they attack the

21:02

middle. And it is like if

21:05

that's the area that you good

21:07

teams want to give up we

21:09

will exploit that area and that's

21:11

what they do. They have so

21:14

many players who are good at

21:16

receiving out wide. Watara and Semenio

21:18

are the most obvious ones, but

21:20

Clyvert can do it, and I

21:23

think importantly, Kirkus gives them an

21:25

outlet from fullback as well, so

21:27

they're attacking from a number of

21:30

different angles. And it's just all,

21:32

how do we win, eventually the

21:34

ball turns over? We have those

21:36

runners going and we have ways

21:39

of getting the ball of them.

21:41

It's not like... It's

21:43

easy to describe that first time,

21:45

but then you watch the games

21:47

and the number of different ways

21:49

that they run those outlet passes

21:51

is, you know, very creative and

21:53

complex and I would love to

21:56

see someone like really sort of

21:58

take some time to work out

22:00

exactly the way that Bournemouth have

22:02

become the best one of the

22:04

best teams in the primarily become

22:06

a champions league contender in the

22:08

Premier League by playing the most

22:10

long passes in the Premier League.

22:12

That's how they do it. They

22:14

have played the most long passes

22:17

in the Premier League this season

22:19

and that strategy as their dominant

22:21

strategy has them in Champions League

22:23

contention. It's pretty wild to be

22:25

honest and they are The

22:28

other way that this is really

22:30

different, right, is that like Usually

22:32

if I tell you okay an

22:35

unexpected team is Playing a lot

22:37

of long balls and they are

22:39

doing really really well You'd say

22:41

oh, okay. They've got a really

22:43

strong defense and then they are

22:46

like counter attacking a little bit

22:48

and it's enough and on balance.

22:50

It's making them good That's not

22:52

what Bormith is Bormith or were

22:55

the best attacking teams in the

22:57

Premier League, and they are pretty

22:59

mediocre defensively So, like, what they

23:01

are doing is clearly, like, exploiting

23:04

things in tech, which is the

23:06

common thread, right, of Ariel's career,

23:08

from Spain to now, is that,

23:10

like, we take our players and

23:13

we figure out ways to exploit

23:15

collectively the defenses in the league

23:17

we are in. And that's still

23:19

what they're doing, but it's through,

23:21

like, very clearly, like, long balls.

23:24

Everton have played almost as many.

23:26

Good for Everton. Like, if we

23:28

were to, I think that a

23:30

lot of people coming into this

23:33

podcast, if they were going to

23:35

say, well, we're going to sing

23:37

the praises of a team that

23:39

is beating up the Premier League

23:42

with long balls, we'd be talking

23:44

about Nottingham Forest. True. Nottingham Forest

23:46

have played a below average number

23:48

of long passes this season. Like,

23:51

and Nottingham Forest are... Bournemouth are

23:53

one of the best attacking teams

23:55

in the Premier League after the

23:57

big two. Nottingham Forest are really...

24:00

bad attacking team. Yeah. And this is why

24:02

the table is is why the Teeble is

24:04

lying to you a little bit about Nottingham

24:06

Yes, so should we talk so should we talk

24:08

about fires here? They're third of of the table. They

24:10

are only They are only behind

24:12

goal on goal difference. them eighth in

24:14

my I have and that's just like

24:16

where the expected goals just like

24:19

where the just that has

24:21

them. It's just that simple They are out

24:23

goals goals by a few goals on then on

24:25

top of that like if you just sort

24:27

the table by goal difference difference, That would

24:29

put them in them in six. So they're place by

24:31

goal difference, goal eighth place by expected goal

24:34

difference, eighth place by goal difference,

24:36

goal difference, and they've gotten lots of

24:38

points. goal difference, and

24:40

they've gotten all weird. points.

24:42

I about If they're a weird

24:44

team to talk about because are

24:46

so much better than I

24:48

expected them to be. I think

24:51

we both thought that mean, I think we

24:53

both thought that they were like candidates candidates

24:55

coming into the season, not the most

24:57

likely group, but. but you know, the group that

24:59

like it take much to go badly for

25:01

them to get relegated. to get relegated.

25:03

the top of the at the top of the

25:05

but they are and they are so

25:08

much better they are so much to talk

25:10

about them in relation to the table

25:12

to talk to talk about why they're

25:14

not nearly as good as their position

25:16

in the table the table. And so

25:18

like what I want to be doing

25:20

is singing the praises of is team,

25:23

which is like like everything said that you everything

25:25

I said that you would expect to

25:27

to be like what, what Nottingham Forestar, they're

25:29

an an incredibly well organized defensive

25:31

team that has very little possession

25:33

that just just enough counter

25:35

attacking to get it done to get it

25:37

done. And like... has taken a team

25:39

that was like on the verge

25:41

of relegation in the relegation battle

25:44

to being a battle to being a league

25:46

team Premier League team. But

25:48

that's what they they are. They're a

25:50

little bit better than the than league and

25:52

then they've run hot to end

25:54

up in third. hot to really have conceded

25:56

tied for the second fewest goals. fewest

25:58

goals. Third few. expected goals in

26:01

the league. And this is

26:03

a team that was not

26:05

a good defensive team at

26:07

all until Nuno took over

26:09

last season. When Nuno took

26:11

over last season they became

26:13

a pretty good defensive team.

26:15

They have remained, like we,

26:17

I said early in the

26:19

season when they were playing

26:21

as one of the three

26:23

best defensive teams in the

26:25

league, I was like, look,

26:27

they're going to get worse

26:29

than this defensively. And they

26:31

haven't yet. They are now

26:33

halfway through a season as

26:35

one of the best defensive

26:37

teams in the league. I

26:39

think that speaks really, really

26:41

well of Nuno as a

26:43

manager. Yeah. I mean, look,

26:45

it's not like, what Nuno

26:47

does is not exciting, right?

26:49

It's very, very old school.

26:52

But there's often times, especially when

26:54

you talk about teams that are

26:56

good, so you're spending a lot

26:58

of time talking about them, this

27:00

idea that like, and I used

27:02

to have this argument about Jose

27:05

Marino at the people's career all

27:07

the time, that like, oh, anybody

27:09

can just play defensively, it's easy.

27:11

And opting to do it when

27:13

you could do other things is

27:15

like a cop-out. And it's like,

27:17

no, it's really, really hard to

27:19

play defense. Well, just like it's

27:22

really really hard to attack well.

27:24

And Nuna has turned dying far

27:26

into a very good defensive team.

27:28

They've also just got like Chris

27:30

Woodscorn a lot of goals. Right.

27:32

And I think that like, in

27:34

terms of the Bournemouth story being

27:36

that Eriola has adjusted to what's

27:38

been given to him, I think

27:41

that The Nuno story to me,

27:43

and maybe this is unfair to

27:45

Nuno, maybe if you asked him

27:47

questions he'd have a lot more

27:49

to say than this, it feels

27:51

like Nuno just happened to be

27:53

really well set up to deal

27:55

with the new meta, because when

27:57

you are a very defensive team...

28:00

The like setting up a team

28:02

to defend well against possession attacking

28:04

you know That's hard But setting

28:06

up a team so they somehow

28:08

never get counterattacked They never are

28:10

defending in transition because no one's

28:12

good defending in transition No one's

28:14

good defending in transition of top

28:16

level football that you see not

28:19

just the very best teams but

28:21

many of the lower level teams

28:23

also trying to execute is that

28:25

you will not defend that much

28:27

not attack that much from settled

28:29

possession and instead you will sort

28:31

of wait around for transition opportunities

28:33

that's your main thing or you

28:36

will try to create those transition

28:38

opportunities early in possession and new

28:40

no teams don't let those two

28:42

things happen. And I think that

28:44

like this really pretty standard obviously

28:46

very well executed but pretty standard

28:48

version of very well executed version

28:50

of a pretty standard tactic is

28:52

suddenly extremely well tailored to the

28:55

new meta of the Premier League

28:57

and that's why I think that

28:59

new cat that not even forest

29:01

are probably going to remain a

29:03

good team. I would have bet

29:05

early in the season that they

29:07

were going to become a somewhat

29:09

bad team because the defensive performance

29:11

is not going to pick up.

29:14

I struggle to see how the

29:16

attacking performance gets them into the

29:18

Champions League, but I think this

29:20

works. And it works at a

29:22

surprisingly high level. Yeah, I think

29:24

that that's right. I can't help

29:26

it. I need to go back

29:28

to Bournemouth because I forgot to

29:31

give you my really great stat

29:33

here. Oh fabulous. So if you

29:35

look at the number of passes

29:37

attempted. in the Premier League. Bournemouth

29:39

are fourth from the bottom. They

29:41

have attempted 7, 701 passes. Everton,

29:43

Nottingham Forest, and Ipswich Town have

29:45

attacked fewer. Would you like to

29:47

guess where they rank and passes

29:50

into the... attempted into the attacking

29:52

third. Oh, that's good. Do they

29:54

top they're they're like top third

29:56

top? They are number one. Incredible.

29:58

They have attempted 1,156 passes into

30:00

the attacking third, which tops Chelsea

30:02

who are in second with 1,140

30:04

and Manchester City who are third.

30:06

Also, and then I will wrap

30:09

up my little barn with steel.

30:11

They are tied for first in

30:13

the number of crosses played with

30:15

449. Now, would you like to

30:17

guess who they're tied with? And

30:19

this will bring us to maybe

30:21

the next team we're going to

30:23

talk about. Is it Tottenham? It's

30:25

Fulham. Fulham. Marco Silva's Fulham. But

30:28

Marco Silva's Fulham is another team

30:30

that is... Tottenham does actually play

30:32

a bunch of crosses. Yeah. They're

30:34

third with 428. And I just

30:36

think it's a function of having

30:38

so much of the ball in

30:40

those areas. not players who get.

30:42

And I think a lot of

30:45

things that are like on the

30:47

border between cutback and cross end

30:49

up in that bucket when you

30:51

look at the numbers and aggregate.

30:53

And so Fulmer and Ninth, and

30:55

that's about their goal difference, that's

30:57

about their expected goal difference, that's

30:59

about their, like the fact that

31:01

they have, they were running a

31:04

hotter early in the season, and

31:06

they've now won one of their

31:08

last five matches to fall back

31:10

somewhat, and that just fits where

31:12

they are a little bit better.

31:14

They're good. They're not great. They're

31:16

pretty good. Like, they're like, you

31:18

are happy to see them take

31:20

this step forward as full. It

31:23

is just not quite as big

31:25

a step forward as you might

31:27

have thought in the first two

31:29

months in season. Yeah, and I

31:31

think that like, you're, they are

31:33

yet another team like Bournemouth and

31:35

like Brentford who use the wings

31:37

exclusively for what they do. And

31:39

so if all you do is

31:42

going down the wings, some percentage

31:44

of what you're going to end

31:46

up with there is crosses. Yeah,

31:48

it's a little different. right because

31:50

Fulham really wants their full backs

31:52

to play in the crosses so

31:54

they have tons of bodies in

31:56

the box. So they're not doing

31:59

the kind of funky things that

32:01

Bournemouth are where you're playing long

32:03

balls up the field into wide

32:05

areas and then your your attackers

32:07

are oftentimes the ones playing the

32:09

cross into the box to whichever

32:11

other attacker happens to be there.

32:13

You know they're not doing the

32:15

somewhat wacky things that Brentford are

32:18

doing which is like somewhere between

32:20

Atlatical Madrid and Atlanta where like

32:22

they have their forwards combining on

32:24

the edge of their own final

32:26

third in wide area in wide

32:28

area. to try to interchange and

32:30

dribble the ball up the field.

32:32

But there's lots of different ways

32:34

that you can use wide areas

32:37

if you want to like focus

32:39

on using wide areas. And Fulham's

32:41

is like the most traditional of

32:43

the bunch. And so this really

32:45

sort of gets at another way

32:47

the table is not lying to

32:49

you, which is you've got Fulham

32:51

in ninth, brighten in tenth, Brentford

32:54

in eleventh, villa in eighth, for

32:56

that matter. And... Those teams just

32:58

really have played midtable football. People

33:00

might have expected Brighton to be

33:02

somewhat better than that. They mostly

33:04

haven't been. But they've been fine.

33:06

They've been solidly safe in the

33:08

Premier League. Brentford have been very

33:10

different than they were last season.

33:13

They've become a very attacking team

33:15

that doesn't defend well, rather than

33:17

being a somewhat defensive team that

33:19

did enough attacking. But that style

33:21

change. which I think is a

33:23

separate topic, has not led to

33:25

a major quality change. Yeah, I

33:27

think that that's 100% correct. They've

33:29

also had some injuries, so maybe

33:32

it could be that, but I

33:34

mean, I think it's all downstream

33:36

of losing Ivan Tony as the

33:38

way you move the ball up

33:40

the field. Yeah. So you've got

33:42

to figure out other things to

33:44

do, but like, the talent direction

33:46

at Brentford has been concerningly one

33:48

way for the past three years.

33:51

and it needs to go the

33:53

other way for a year or

33:55

two if they want to remain.

33:57

probably not threatened by relegation. So

33:59

like that gets us to really

34:01

just the one team further down

34:03

the table that the table is

34:05

mostly lying to you about? Don't

34:08

know. Which is taught them in

34:10

12th. Much like I had this

34:12

conundrum with adding a farce where

34:14

it's like I wanted to sing

34:16

their praises even though like the

34:18

thing I ultimately had to do

34:20

was talk about like they're not

34:22

as good as this. are not

34:24

as bad as this, but they

34:27

have consistently been not great for

34:29

the past two months in a

34:31

way that has like they are

34:33

worse now than they were two

34:35

months like the first two months

34:37

of the season you looked at

34:39

it and it was just like

34:41

oh they're playing like one of

34:43

the best teams and they're getting

34:46

unlucky and now it's like they're

34:48

playing significantly worse than that and

34:50

still not getting lucky. I mean

34:52

I think it's just think it's

34:54

a lot of injuries but it

34:56

is true that they are not

34:58

playing now. Exactly. And like early

35:00

in the season, Newcastle were surprisingly

35:02

like bottom half in their performance.

35:05

And then they got fit. Like

35:07

they just balance each other back

35:09

out, but Newcastle haven't had quite

35:11

as much misfortune in results as

35:13

spurs have. And so spurs have

35:15

been like, overall, I've got them

35:17

about even with, I've got them

35:19

even with forest. So a little

35:22

behind Newcastle. Bournemouth and City. The

35:24

thing about Tottenham is like, they're

35:26

a real test case in like

35:28

the various ways one can be

35:30

unlucky. Mm-hmm. I mean, I think

35:32

there's just a real case here

35:34

that they're, they're, obviously they have

35:36

not won any close games. No

35:38

close games. So on a points

35:41

level, they're just kind of unlucky.

35:43

Even as like on an ex-G

35:45

level, they're not that unlucky in

35:47

terms of like... Their gold difference

35:49

is quite high, right? It's a

35:51

very odd team that has been

35:53

on. lucky while outplaying their expected

35:55

goals by about 10. Like that's

35:57

impressive. Also though, like injuries to

36:00

some degree are luck. Mm-hmm. You

36:02

know, if you're like looking at

36:04

where injury luck has been this

36:06

season, Arsenal Tottenham and Manchester City

36:08

are the three, like, three teams

36:10

that have been most negatively impacted

36:12

by injuries. They just are. And

36:14

so... that should impact your XG

36:17

level to some degree or another.

36:19

Like, I don't know, like, it

36:21

is both hard for me to

36:23

be alarmed by Spurs not being

36:25

that good, but like, it is

36:27

like worth recognizing that Spurs are

36:29

not that good. Spurs are playing

36:31

like the seventh or eighth best

36:33

team in the league overall, which

36:36

is not that good for their

36:38

wage bill and their revenues. You

36:40

can tell a happy story about

36:42

it, which is that they were

36:44

playing like the fourth best team

36:46

in the league for a while

36:48

before the injury crisis hit. And

36:50

so the question is, how much

36:52

is that something that they can

36:55

count on coming back? And how

36:57

much is... are these injuries part

36:59

of a sustained problem? And I

37:01

have a bunch of takes on

37:03

this. We did a we did

37:05

a podcast on Tottenham. I think

37:07

the big thing is their squad

37:09

construction, which is that they built

37:11

their squad to fit within UEFA

37:14

restrictions, and they don't have that

37:16

many of what UEFA terms club

37:18

home grown players. And so they

37:20

simply didn't have. several extra players

37:22

that you would expect to have.

37:24

They've only, they're only really running

37:26

out 23-24 players while playing in

37:28

all these competitions. That simply can't

37:31

be done. And I think the

37:33

big test for, for, for their

37:35

front office this January, and for

37:37

their, for, and really, this January.

37:39

is can they just work it

37:41

up to tell some guys, look

37:43

you can't be on the Europa

37:45

League squad? Because we need to

37:47

have enough minutes and we can't

37:50

do it with all of our

37:52

senior players on the Europa League

37:54

squad. And I think that's the

37:56

biggest cause of their injury problems

37:58

and it was an error they

38:00

made early in the season. Talked

38:02

about this at the end of

38:04

the season. I was like, well

38:06

we expect them to sign another

38:09

defender and then they didn't. And

38:11

not only didn't they, they didn't

38:13

register to register extra defenders for

38:15

the Europa League squad because they

38:17

didn't have the Europa League squad

38:19

because they didn't have the spaces.

38:21

That's what happened. And that's the

38:23

thing I think they need to

38:25

solve much, much more than there's

38:28

a question of whether their manager's

38:30

tactics are too attacking. Yes, but

38:32

that's all I'm going to be

38:34

able to decide about. Anyway, so

38:36

that's really table. Is there any

38:38

other, like, we barely touched Aston

38:40

Villa? Do you remember anything to

38:42

say about Aston Villa? I had

38:45

nothing to say about Aston Villa.

38:47

Yeah, I mean, Asenvila or somewhere

38:49

around the eighth best team in

38:51

the league. That's what they projected

38:53

to before the season. The magic

38:55

of having, running hot last season

38:57

has not continued. Some would argue

38:59

this is because they are playing

39:01

in the Champions League and last

39:04

year they're playing in the conference

39:06

league. And there's probably some effect

39:08

there. But like the simplest thing

39:10

is just like, Asenvenvila weren't that

39:12

great and they remain not that

39:14

great. But pretty good. They can

39:16

make the top five. Could happen.

39:18

Could happen. Yeah. Just gonna run

39:20

a little bit hot, they'll be

39:23

fine. I think we should do

39:25

the bottom of the table at

39:27

another time. You know, there's not

39:29

that much to... It's not that

39:31

interesting, and so I don't kind

39:33

of want to see how the

39:35

relegation race... I am like impressed

39:37

by... I am as impressed by

39:40

Kierne McKenna as I can remember

39:42

being by a bad team manager,

39:44

but like, other than that, I

39:46

don't have much going on here.

39:48

Yeah, it would be nice if

39:50

they could like... maintain this level

39:52

for a little bit and make

39:54

the race interesting. But... You say

39:56

that. I would not necessarily think

39:59

that. Thank you. Indeed. All right,

40:01

so that is your sort of overview

40:03

of the teams that is your

40:05

sort of overview of the teams that

40:07

are in unexpected places in the

40:09

Premier League table and why those unexpected

40:11

places are not respected

40:14

in terms of the of the expected

40:16

goals. And on that note,

40:18

we'll be back later with

40:20

our podcast. Cheers y'all. Cheers.