0:03

Research that resonates. He's the

0:05

president of the Government Accountability

0:07

Institute, Peter Schweitzer. Peter Schweitzer.

0:09

Peter Schweitzer. Peter Schweitzer. Schweitzer

0:11

has spent many years, in

0:13

fact, probably done a more

0:15

comprehensive job than anyone's ever

0:17

done, chronicling a corruption by

0:19

the powerful Washington. Be very

0:21

prescient, Eric Eggery. Join me

0:23

right now, is Government

0:25

Accountability Institute Research Director

0:27

Eric Eggers. We're going to take

0:30

information that we've learned, that people

0:32

like Peter Schweitzer have uncovered, and

0:34

we're going to try to go

0:37

further. Great investigative reporting, Peter, the

0:39

only one doing it, thank God.

0:42

Eric Eggers from the Government Accountability

0:44

Institute and co-host of that great

0:46

podcast, the drill-down with Peter Schweitzer.

0:49

Hi, it's Peter Schweitzer and welcome

0:51

to The Drill Down. Well, you're

0:53

hearing about tariffs, trade wars, stock

0:56

markets, and turmoil. What exactly

0:58

is going on? Joining me today is

1:00

Eric Eggers. We're going to unpack it

1:02

for you. We are not financial advisors.

1:04

So don't look for us in that

1:06

regard, but I will say... We've studied

1:08

a lot of what happens in economic

1:10

decision-making and there are a lot of

1:12

interesting aspects to what's happening right now

1:14

that people probably aren't aware of. No,

1:16

I think that's right. There should be

1:18

an illuminating discussion and obviously we're in

1:20

the middle of this big story just

1:22

like everyone else. Last week you had

1:24

a Diet Coke to open the episode

1:26

this week. You do not because you

1:28

can no longer afford one. But I

1:30

would like to say if there are any

1:33

pharmaceutical companies that want to advertise on the

1:35

podcast, now is the time. We need the

1:37

money. My goodness, it has been a tumultuous

1:40

last couple of days and a costly one

1:42

to stock markets and the portfolios for many

1:44

people, including many people that are listening to

1:46

this podcast. But what we want to

1:49

do is put what's happening as a

1:51

reaction to the tariffs and what the

1:53

Trump administration's policies seem to be in

1:55

a much larger picture. Yeah, if you

1:58

look at what the media is reporting,

2:00

they're creating this sort of pan- scenario.

2:02

We've now started a trade war. There's

2:04

going to be chaos. There's going to

2:06

be huge financial problems coming forward. And

2:09

that's not really the reality. We're going

2:11

to unpack several facets of what is

2:13

occurring. This is not just about tariffs.

2:15

It's part of, I think, a larger

2:17

effort that Trump is engaging in that

2:20

has to do with our national debt.

2:22

has to do with consumer debt, it

2:24

has to deal with the geostrategic position,

2:26

and of course it does have to

2:29

do with trade. But I have to

2:31

say the thing that kind of surprises

2:33

me up front about all of this

2:35

is what Trump is doing is creating

2:37

reciprocal tariffs that are basically half of

2:40

what these countries have on the United

2:42

States. And what's fighting to me is

2:44

so they've already engaged in this behavior,

2:46

we're now catching up and doing it

2:49

partly back to them. That apparently constitutes

2:51

a trade war. The fact that they

2:53

were doing it to us for decades,

2:55

and we weren't responding. was fine, but

2:57

now that we have responded, we have

3:00

this sort of chaotic situation. And by

3:02

the way, this is not a new

3:04

debate. This has been kind of an

3:06

ongoing conversation with our national leaders on

3:09

both sides of the aisle with regards

3:11

to tariffs and some of those practices.

3:13

Here's a video clip of just an

3:15

example of some voices in the past.

3:17

You can hear Barack Obama, you can

3:20

hear Nancy Pelosi, Bernie Sanders, and of

3:22

course you're going to hear Donald Trump,

3:24

talking decades ago about this very problem.

3:26

We had a tire case in which

3:29

they were flooding us with cheap domestic

3:31

tires or cheap Chinese tires and we

3:33

put a stop to it. I believe

3:35

in trade But I believe in fair

3:37

trade not unfetted free trade. I do

3:40

not believe that we should be shutting

3:42

down factories in America and having corporations

3:44

run to Desperate countries where people are

3:46

paid a dollar or two dollars an

3:49

hour. I don't believe in that The

3:51

function of trade is not just to

3:53

make large corporations wealthier. Tariffs? When tariffs

3:55

are necessary, absolutely. It's also proper for

3:57

advanced economies like the United States to

4:00

insist on reciprocity from nations like China

4:02

that are no longer solely poor countries

4:04

to make sure that they're providing access

4:06

to their markets. The average US MFN

4:08

tariff on Chinese goods coming into the

4:11

United States is 2% whereas the average

4:13

Chinese MFF tariff on US goods going

4:15

into China is 35%. Is that reciprocal?

4:17

The fact is that US-China trade is

4:20

a job-loser. Further, what they have said

4:22

is that we need to not worry

4:24

about manufacturing in America, because what we

4:26

should establish is a policy of unfetted

4:28

free trade. We don't need tariffs. What

4:31

we need is to allow corporate America

4:33

the freedom, the freedom. The throw American

4:35

work is out on the street. People

4:37

are making 15, 20, 25 bucks an

4:40

hour health care pensions, throw them out

4:42

on the street because somehow, Madam President,

4:44

we are going to create wealth in

4:46

America and good paying jobs in America

4:48

as we shut down plants, we move

4:51

to China, corporations there, pay workers 20,

4:53

30 cents an hour, and we bring

4:55

the product back into this country. Look,

4:57

I think the president's doing the right

5:00

thing. China has been taking advantage of

5:02

us for two decades. They're stealing our

5:04

intellectual property, which means stealing our good-paying

5:06

jobs. And I, frankly, am closer on

5:08

this issue, not on many, but on

5:11

this issue with President Trump than I

5:13

was with President Bush or Obama, because

5:15

they did nothing to tell China off.

5:17

Now, China, of course, will respond. But

5:20

if they know we're strong and we're

5:22

not going to back off, they will

5:24

back off. They have far more to

5:26

lose than we do. They have a

5:28

$300 billion trade surplus with us. So

5:31

I'm looking out number one for jobs.

5:33

You know, if General Electric moves jobs

5:35

to China. They're not unhappy, but my

5:37

New York workers in Schenectady are unhappy.

5:39

And so you can't let the international

5:42

business companies, who don't give a hoot

5:44

about where their factories are, govern this.

5:46

You have to do what's good for

5:48

the American worker. We're getting about the

5:51

enemies. The enemies you can't talk to

5:53

so easily. I'd make our allies pay

5:55

their fair share. We're a debtor nation.

5:57

Something's going to happen over the next

5:59

number of years with this country, because

6:02

you can't keep going on losing. trade.

6:04

If you ever go to Japan right

6:06

now and try to sell something, forget

6:08

about it, Albert. Just forget about it.

6:11

It's almost impossible. They don't have laws

6:13

against it. They just make it impossible.

6:15

They come over here, they sell their

6:17

cars, their VCRs, they knock the hell

6:19

out of our companies. And hey, I

6:22

have tremendous respect for the Japanese people.

6:24

I mean, you can respect somebody that's

6:26

beating the hell out of this country.

6:28

Kuwait, they live like kings. And yet

6:31

they're not paying. We make it possible

6:33

for them to sell their oil. Why

6:35

aren't they paying us 25% of what

6:37

they're making? It's a joke. This sounds

6:39

like political, presidential talk to me. And

6:42

I know people have talked to you

6:44

about whether or not you want to

6:46

run. Would you ever? Probably not. But

6:48

I do get tired of seeing the

6:51

country ripped off. Why would you not?

6:53

I just don't think. I really have

6:55

the inclination to do it. I love

6:57

what I'm doing. I really like it.

6:59

Also it doesn't pay as well. But,

7:02

you know, I just probably wouldn't do

7:04

it. I probably wouldn't, but I do

7:06

get tired of seeing what's happening with

7:08

this country. And if it got so

7:11

bad, I would never want to rule

7:13

it out totally because I really am

7:15

tired of seeing what's happening with this

7:17

country, how we're really making other people

7:19

live like kings and we're not. Yeah,

7:22

so you heard the R were there

7:24

from Democrats. You heard Donald Trump talking

7:26

decades ago about this issue My question

7:28

for you, Eric, is why do you

7:30

think there's been this switch? Why is

7:33

it that Democrats that used to talk

7:35

about trade issues in this way seem

7:37

to be less inclined? Is this just

7:39

they don't like Trump or something larger

7:42

going on? Well, it's a good question.

7:44

I think there's there seem to be

7:46

critiques about the Trump administration's policy in

7:48

a couple different respects. One is the

7:50

way this policy was announced with the

7:53

chart and they said that the reciprocity

7:55

formula ended up maybe not being exactly

7:57

what they said it would be. And

7:59

so people like, look, if you want

8:02

to do this, then don't. roll it

8:04

out in a manner which some people

8:06

even on the right have said is

8:08

un serious. But on the other hand,

8:10

I mean, look, we are the government

8:13

accountability institute. What we do is talk

8:15

about the relationship between big business and

8:17

big government and it's clear based on

8:19

the reaction of the stock market that

8:22

these policies are not good for big

8:24

businesses that rely on cheap labor overseas

8:26

and then they come back and they

8:28

sell it here. It's been great for

8:30

the stock market, but I think that's

8:33

the point. I mean, that Joe Biden

8:35

lost the last election I guess and

8:37

Kamala Harris because essentially the American people

8:39

didn't buy their argument the economy was

8:42

great right even though the market was

8:44

up over forty thousand right in the

8:46

doubt yeah and people said hey that's

8:48

cool but like everything's more expensive right

8:50

so here comes the Trump administration saying

8:53

all right we're going to fundamentally change

8:55

that and everybody's like wait a minute

8:57

now yeah where that's a great point

8:59

I think one of the reasons you're

9:01

seeing this switch by the way is

9:04

that The Democrats used to be the

9:06

party that sort of Wall Street, I'm

9:08

going back to the 80s and even

9:10

part of the 90s, Wall Street didn't

9:13

really like the Democrats. A lot of

9:15

big corporations didn't like the Democrats. They

9:17

tended to skew Republican. That is now

9:19

reversed. It's now Wall Street. The big

9:21

financiers on Wall Street, the big corporations

9:24

tend to be in Democratic. So that's

9:26

where the money is coming from, from

9:28

the Democrats. But I think to your

9:30

point about the economy. An amazing statistic

9:33

on government spending, people that are supportive

9:35

of the Biden administration, Democrats will say,

9:37

oh, the economy was great during the

9:39

Biden years. The fact of the matter

9:41

is the economy was inflated because we

9:44

were spending money like drunken sailors. And

9:46

that's kind of insulting to drunken sailors

9:48

because the amount of money we spent

9:50

was so much spending from 2019 when

9:53

COVID, you know, right before COVID, the

9:55

sort of normal. year you go to

9:57

2024 we are now we were spending

9:59

that year 50% more than we spent

10:01

in 2019 and the population growth was

10:04

3% so it is that is what

10:06

stimulated this quote-unquote growing economy but it

10:08

was all of us saw it was

10:10

all fake and now you've got to

10:13

sort of deflate that balloon a little

10:15

bit and put it in a positive

10:17

direction I think the trade strategy is

10:19

part of that. Scott Bessent the treasurer

10:21

secretary said that he compared it to

10:24

a body that looks good because it's

10:26

on steroids. So the muscles are big,

10:28

but inside all the organs are failing

10:30

because of the drugs that you're using

10:33

to perpetuate this myth. And so to

10:35

your point, I mean, those numbers are

10:37

staggering, right? 2019, 4.4 trillion is what

10:39

the US spent. By 2024, last year,

10:41

the Biden administration, 6.8 trillion, which speaks

10:44

to a couple of different things. Number

10:46

one, I mean, COVID's over by this

10:48

point in it for several years. Oh,

10:50

and so, but like the criticism of

10:52

government programs never go away. or the

10:55

spending never goes down even though all

10:57

the COVID release stuff so the COVID

10:59

release stuff goes away so then what

11:01

is it well it's green energy spending

11:04

and it's the investment you know the

11:06

infrastructure act and all those things and

11:08

so yeah it's crazy and the market's

11:10

up but when If the mainstream media

11:12

and the big corporations are losing their

11:15

mind over this, and it's a great

11:17

point about I think big corporations and

11:19

Wall Street is the party for Democrats

11:21

now, even Gavin Newsom's like on his

11:24

podcast with Steve Benny goes, how did

11:26

you guys do this? How did you

11:28

guys become, how did the Republicans become

11:30

the party of the working class? So.

11:32

the market's down and that obviously impacts

11:35

people with big portfolios but guess who

11:37

it's not really impacting right now it's

11:39

not impacting people who make less than

11:41

$40,000 a year right of whom only

11:44

29% are invested in the market it's

11:46

not impacting young people right of whom

11:48

59% don't own stocks and it's not

11:50

impacting you know people without a college

11:52

degree of whom 56% don't own stocks

11:55

well what do you know lower income

11:57

workers younger people and people with a

11:59

college degree have in common, that's the

12:01

Trump voting coalition. And so that is

12:04

literally, that's Main Street. And you've heard

12:06

that. This is Main Street's term. So

12:08

what they're focused on is giving those

12:10

people relief, not in terms of what's

12:12

happening in the market. but in interest

12:15

rates and in other costs that impact

12:17

their day-to-day lives. Yeah, and of course

12:19

the fear that people have is that

12:21

if things continue to cascade, you know,

12:23

people that aren't invested in the stock

12:26

market, they may lose their jobs, capital

12:28

may freeze up, there may be layoffs,

12:30

etc. We'll see, but I think to

12:32

your point, it's a very important one,

12:35

is this is not simply just about...

12:37

the issue of trade. And it's not

12:39

just about the stock market, although that's

12:41

where all the news is. This actually

12:43

relates to the fact that we have

12:46

this huge debt overhang, both in terms

12:48

of, you know, the general population is

12:50

highly in debt, and the federal government.

12:52

This year, we've got, you know, several,

12:55

I think, trillion dollars of debt. We

12:57

need to refinance. And if those interest

12:59

rates are high... It's a lot more

13:01

expensive. It means we're going to be

13:03

spending billions and billions and billions of

13:06

more dollars in interest payments than we

13:08

would otherwise. So, you know, Bissent talked

13:10

about this a little bit. We are...

13:12

looking for ways in which we can

13:15

bring down the 10-year treasuries to a

13:17

way that's more manageable because that's what

13:19

it's based on the debt we're financing

13:21

is based on and that's part of

13:23

what's going on here it's not just

13:26

about trade policy it's trying to deal

13:28

with this fiscal challenge as well yes

13:30

something like 9.2 trillion in debt matures

13:32

this year in 2025. And so they're

13:35

saying for every basis point when I

13:37

want to get too technical, but Secretary

13:39

Bissent says, hey, that could save us

13:41

$100 billion a year. The 10-year yield

13:43

was up to 4.8 in January. It

13:46

dropped below for Friday. And so it

13:48

kind of is moving around there. So

13:50

that's absolutely something that they're looking at.

13:52

And then you've got like mortgage rates,

13:55

which of course impact regular people. We

13:57

saw an 11% increase in mortgage applications

13:59

in March of last year. a little

14:01

bit more optimistic. Before that in the

14:03

last quarter of 2024, people are sounding

14:06

alarms at the rate of delinquencies was

14:08

raising. So it's a lot of warning

14:10

signs. And so they need to get

14:12

those rates down. You know, the mortgage

14:14

rate for an average home was over

14:17

7% in January. It's now down to

14:19

about 6.6. So, and as Secretary of

14:21

Bescent said recently too, not just our

14:23

interest rates coming down, the price of

14:26

oil is down 15% in the last

14:28

couple of weeks. So, you know, expensive

14:30

is your mortgage or if you're trying

14:32

to buy a new home, how expensive

14:34

is the gas pump? Those are the

14:37

things that are focused on more than

14:39

what's the doubt at right now. Yeah,

14:41

yeah, no, I think that's a great

14:43

point and I think that that's an

14:46

element that is being overlooked in a

14:48

lot of the debate. There is a

14:50

fiscal side to what is going on

14:52

here with these tariffs. I think it

14:54

also relates to another topic that's overlooked

14:57

and that you have these trade imbalances,

14:59

but part of the problem. in a

15:01

large number. China, for example, is a

15:03

great example of this. China, we have

15:06

this massive dependence upon them for pharmaceuticals

15:08

and basic things like medical supplies. And

15:10

we know going back to COVID in

15:12

2020, if you remember, China was sort

15:14

of in the crosshairs because Trump was

15:17

calling it, I think, accurately the China

15:19

virus. China basically told Trump, look, if

15:21

you keep doing this, we're just going

15:23

to cut you off. We're not going

15:26

to send you masks. We're not going

15:28

to send you gowns. And I'm talking

15:30

about the mask for medical personnel. I'm

15:32

not talking about the silly cloth ones

15:34

that people were wearing. I'm talking about

15:37

those K-95 masks or penicillin. We're not

15:39

going to send you penicillin anymore. So

15:41

part of the issue I think is

15:43

not just the trade deficit or the

15:45

trade imbalance. You were going to have

15:48

imbalances with different countries. That's going to

15:50

exist. It's the fact that they have

15:52

a strategy to make us dependent upon

15:54

the importation of certain goods. And if

15:57

we're if we're dependent upon them, they

15:59

have leverage on us. No, that's absolutely

16:01

right. And to your point, given the

16:03

fact that even though, you know, we

16:05

wanted to call the China virus, we

16:08

still have had this something that caused,

16:10

like it fundamentally upended Western society, and

16:12

not just Western society, kind of global

16:14

society, and we still haven't had hearings

16:17

on, hey, where did this come from?

16:19

It's still a well we think it's

16:21

from the lab but maybe it's not

16:23

okay to say that or maybe it

16:25

is okay to say it now and

16:28

it speaks to the amount of leverage

16:30

that China had and they did in

16:32

the interview that the treasurer secretary did

16:34

with Tucker Carlson he said look we

16:37

had basically a beta test for what

16:39

a kinetic war looks like with China

16:41

and what we learned is we do

16:43

not control our own supply chains on

16:45

things with if we end up in

16:48

a war with China And so if

16:50

the goal of these tariffs is to

16:52

help increase U.S. production capacity, they basically

16:54

said it's not even a hostile way.

16:57

They want to bring China to the

16:59

table. They want China to consume more

17:01

and produce less. They want us to

17:03

produce more and have us to produce

17:05

more and have China consume more and

17:08

have China consume less. That's one of

17:10

the goals. But I think, you know,

17:12

the secretary made several key points. Listen

17:14

to one of the points he made

17:17

on Meet the press just this last

17:19

Sunday. And if we look at data

17:21

from President Trump's first term, and there's

17:23

a big study that just came out

17:25

from a group of economists, mostly at

17:28

MIT, that showed that a 20 percent,

17:30

20 percent tariff on China led to

17:32

a 0.7 percent tax or price level

17:34

increase over four years, I think that's

17:36

pretty good. If we can take in

17:39

20 percent in tariffs, and it's a

17:41

0.7 percent increase, and Kristen the little...

17:43

publicize story this week. Everyone wants to

17:45

look at the stock market going down.

17:48

You know what else went down? Oil

17:50

prices went down almost 15% in two

17:52

days, which impacts working Americans much more

17:54

than the stock market does. Interest rates

17:56

hit their low for the year. So

17:59

I'm expecting the mortgage applications to pick

18:01

up. Well, just to be very clear,

18:03

though, I mean, during President Trump's first

18:05

terms, the cost to Americans was nearly

18:08

$80 billion in new taxes due to

18:10

his tariffs. Prices did go up on

18:12

everything from washing machines to tires. Well,

18:14

no, no, but let's go back. The

18:16

aggregate number was 0.7, so we can

18:19

discern the individual things. Also, households saw

18:21

real net wages go up. So if

18:23

wages go up faster than prices, which

18:25

is not what happened over the past

18:28

four years, that's why the bottom 50%

18:30

got eviscerated. Yeah, I mean the point

18:32

is that yes, tariffs have the potential

18:34

theoretically if they're on a massive scale

18:36

to cause inflation, but his point is

18:39

that It really doesn't. If it's done

18:41

in the right way, it doesn't have

18:43

to have that effect. And I think

18:45

the Trump record shows that. And certainly

18:48

the Biden record shows that. We had

18:50

massive inflation with Joe Biden. Had nothing

18:52

to do with tariffs. It had to

18:54

do with this massive government spending of

18:56

money. Yeah. And everyone's sort of recognized.

18:59

The economy last four years is not

19:01

good. Yeah. And everyone's losing their mind

19:03

over the last couple days of stocks.

19:05

But the point is, is that Trump

19:07

has been. crazy thing. He's only been

19:10

president for a kind of exhaustion already

19:12

like less than three months. But he's

19:14

clearly in the business of collecting leverage.

19:16

And so what he's announced tariffs mean

19:19

or suggests is that he wants these

19:21

to be leverage for and a lot

19:23

of people are going to. say like

19:25

we're going to see an increase in

19:27

bilateral deals. We've even I think just

19:30

now it's it's breaking that Europe has

19:32

said look we will come to the

19:34

table we would like these tariffs to

19:36

be dropped and so I think it's

19:39

almost like we're having the wrong conversation

19:41

we're talking about the impact of tariffs

19:43

that assumes that tariffs exist in perpetuity

19:45

which I don't believe they will I

19:47

believe that they are going to be

19:50

a short-term measure to extract people to

19:52

come to the table and negotiate deals

19:54

whether it's breaking. some of our product

19:56

to make the market, I mean things

19:59

of that nature, and you're already sort

20:01

of seeing that happen. Yeah, that's right.

20:03

I mean, leverage is the key word.

20:05

And you're essentially talking about a couple

20:07

of major offenders, right? He gave this

20:10

list of all the countries that we're

20:12

going to be putting tariffs on, including

20:14

countries that, I mean, I haven't heard

20:16

of in years, you know, Vanuatu and

20:19

some of these other countries. But the

20:21

major offenders are really China in Mexico.

20:23

trade imbalances and you're going to have

20:25

trade imbalances sometimes just because you know

20:27

somebody has a natural resource or somebody

20:30

has a product that you want and

20:32

you don't necessarily have something to offer

20:34

them but in these particular cases it's

20:36

because they have these massive trade barriers

20:39

China has them even Canada has them

20:41

we talked about this earlier I mean

20:43

they have strict quotas on dairy products

20:45

so if we send them you know

20:47

a certain amount of milk they jack

20:50

up those prices on farmers in Minnesota

20:52

and farmers in Minnesota and Michigan farmers

20:54

that are trying to sell their dairy

20:56

products in Canada, good luck. And so

20:58

leverage is the key. And the point

21:01

is, they're going to keep tariffs on

21:03

until an American president steps up and

21:05

says, we've had enough. there's no reason

21:07

for you to have these tariffs anymore

21:10

and we're going to come back with

21:12

these reciprocal tariffs which we've done so

21:14

now let's make a deal. So I

21:16

think a lot of the turmoil we're

21:18

seeing now is going to be short-lived

21:21

and I think we're going to see

21:23

a lot of encouragement movement going forward

21:25

and we're going to see a lot

21:27

of encouragement movement going forward and we're

21:30

going to actually go to what everybody

21:32

says they wanted which is acting like

21:34

Like, why would you come at us?

21:36

And the analogy is, like, if you're

21:38

a child and you're fighting, the person

21:41

who throws the last punch is always

21:43

going to get in trouble. And so

21:45

why are you hitting Canada? Well, what

21:47

we haven't seen is what Canada has

21:50

had in place against us for some

21:52

time. To your point, they're not a

21:54

massive economy, yet they are ninth in

21:56

terms of the trade imbalance, the trade

21:58

deficit. We have, I think, a nearly...

22:01

$700 billion trade deficit with them and

22:03

including things like restrictions on banks which

22:05

you are on. Yeah, yeah, so in

22:07

the United States you can go to

22:09

D.T. TD Bank, which is Toronto Dominion

22:11

Bank, and they can operate in

22:13

the United States, pretty unfettered, very

22:16

difficult for American banks to operate

22:18

in Canada. You have to have

22:20

a Canadian middleman, you have to

22:22

find a Canadian partner, you have

22:24

to get special sanction from the

22:26

Canadian government to operate. I know

22:28

the American wine industry has tariffs

22:30

and challenges to getting into the

22:32

Canadian market. I know this stereotype

22:34

is Canadians only drink beer, but

22:36

I think they actually do drink

22:38

wine as well and with these

22:40

tariffs. Well, without weather you'd have to.

22:42

Come on. So look, the bottom line

22:45

is... The media coverage has been terrible

22:47

on this because these are reciprocal, they

22:49

are important, and the goal here I

22:51

think that Trump has is moving in

22:53

a direction where you are protecting certain

22:55

critical industries in the United States and

22:57

at the same time you are removing

22:59

trade barriers for the United States to

23:01

export our products overseas and who's not

23:04

in favor of that. The problem is

23:06

if you rely on the goodwill even

23:08

of our friends and the Canadians to

23:10

do it. They're not going to do

23:12

it until you press them to do it.

23:14

Yeah, by the way, a shocking country in

23:16

the top 10 list of trade offenders here.

23:18

I mean, China, you get, Mexico, you get,

23:20

Vietnam, you get. How about Ireland? Ireland

23:22

in the top five. Oh, the Irish.

23:25

No wonder they're so nice to us

23:27

when we go over there. You know,

23:29

you thought it was just this Irish

23:31

spirit. No, it's because they're robbing us

23:33

blind, pint after pint of Guinness. It's

23:35

crazy. demeaning Ireland, but that's a

23:37

massive number. I don't know, you can

23:39

talk to your buddy Shamus O'Hoolahan about

23:42

that. But he's clearly doing quite

23:44

well. By the way, on the other

23:46

end of the spectrum, the countries that

23:48

we actually have a positive trade relationship

23:51

with, United Kingdom. So we have

23:53

a special relationship with, the country that

23:55

actually we have the most healthy or

23:58

in our favor relationship with, the Netherlands.

24:00

interesting i know we have a hundred

24:02

thirteen billion dollar surplus in terms of

24:04

trade with the Netherlands or Holland, Hong

24:06

Kong's positive, Australia and the United Arab

24:08

Emirates are the top five. So interesting.

24:10

Yeah, but I actually think that's part

24:12

of the genius of what Trump is

24:14

doing here is again, we're having even

24:16

a conversation about trade and balances, just

24:18

like we're now having a conversation about

24:20

wasteful spending in government. And they all

24:22

kind of have the same goal of

24:24

getting the United States as fiscal health

24:26

in order. It's all part of the

24:28

same strategy. So they're trying to lower the

24:30

treasury yield in rate so that our payments

24:32

on debt cost us less. They think they

24:35

can save hundreds of billions of dollars that

24:37

way. They're lowering government spending with these tariffs.

24:39

I think they can bring in another 600

24:41

billion, depending on how long some of these

24:43

things they in. So it all has to

24:45

do with, look, we've got a massive debt

24:47

in this country. And this is how you

24:49

take care of it. Yeah, exactly right. You're

24:51

not going to talk about it. People have

24:53

talked for years about cutting government spending about

24:56

trade deals. We saw the heard the video

24:58

government spending. bottom line is Trump is trying

25:00

to do that and it's a heavy

25:02

lift. I mean you're going to get

25:04

squealing, you're going to get opposition, but

25:06

people are coming to the table because

25:08

as you said earlier, as we were

25:10

talking about that, the most powerful asset

25:12

we have is access to our market.

25:14

People want to sell in the United

25:16

States because we are spenders. We have

25:18

a consumer market that is unmatched and

25:20

we need to use that in a

25:22

positive way to make sure that our

25:24

goods are able to get into these

25:26

foreign markets. a real estate mogul who

25:28

had a list of mansions that he was

25:30

just looking to unload, he's looking to kind

25:33

of cut a deal. I think you would

25:35

say that his mansion is the American consumer

25:37

because he knows that the American consumer is

25:39

one of the most valuable assets in the

25:41

global economy and he thinks it's been underutilized

25:43

and underappreciated abroad and he's... you know, kind

25:45

of standing on business as it were, and

25:47

he's standing up for us, and I think

25:49

he's trying to fundamentally change things, and he

25:51

thinks the math should work on our favor,

25:53

and we'll see. By the way, the next

25:55

thing that he's going to do that everyone's

25:57

going to lose their mind over is his

25:59

budget. which is going to include some tax cuts. And that's his

26:01

efforts. Okay, things are going to cost more maybe now in the short

26:03

term because of these tariffs. But if we give you more relief with

26:05

these tax cuts, like that's all, I think, the other part of this,

26:07

the leg on the stool, but of course, that's also not going to

26:10

be presented in that context, it's going to be, oh my gosh, it's

26:12

the most irresponsible thing I've ever heard of. Yeah, it's amazing. We think

26:14

of clickbade and we think a panic porn and we think a panic

26:16

porn and we go panic porn when we go on Twitter porn when

26:18

we go on Twitter porn when we go on Twitter acts, you know,

26:20

you know, you know, Twitter acts, Twitter acts, Twitter acts, Twitter acts, Twitter

26:22

acts, Twitter acts, you know, Twitter acts, Twitter acts, Twitter acts, and

26:24

everything, Twitter acts, it, it, and everything. Right?

26:26

It's in the financial media as well. So

26:28

we would say, be patient, let things play

26:30

out. I think things are moving in a

26:32

great direction. And there's a lot of things

26:34

that play in terms of national policy related

26:37

to tariffs. It's not just about trade and

26:39

it's not just about deficits. I mean, former

26:41

member of Congress, Matt Gates, and I was

26:43

a TV host, he tweeted today, he's like,

26:45

listen, I'm not even in government. I've had

26:47

a bunch of foreign companies, foreign countries, foreign

26:49

countries come to me. asking can I help

26:51

arrange a meeting with Donald Trump because they're

26:53

seeking relief and you've seen the Vietnam's come

26:55

to the table. The EU is coming to

26:57

the table. Argentina is that they want to

26:59

be the first country to have zero tariffs.

27:02

So I do think that the strategy appears

27:04

to be working. I mean you could go

27:06

the other way with Canada and say well

27:08

we're going to put a 35% tariff on

27:10

you guys stuff. Well that's fine. But the

27:12

majority of other people are not responding that

27:15

way and you heard Secretary Besson say companies

27:17

not countries and that's who they're trying to

27:19

bring. They're trying to bring people here to

27:21

manufacture things in this country again. That's the

27:23

end goal. Yeah, that's exactly right. Well, we

27:26

appreciate you as always taking the time

27:28

to listen to this podcast. We hope

27:30

we've made some sense of what is

27:32

going on. Perhaps things that you're not

27:34

hearing that are going on behind the

27:36

headlines. You can find out more about

27:38

the research we do at the drilldown.com

27:40

and of course you can subscribe to

27:42

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