0:00

I'm Dan Kurtz Phelan and this

0:02

is the Foreign Affairs interview. You've

0:04

got to do both as an ambassador. got

0:06

to do both as an to the your ambassador

0:08

to the people of China and also to

0:10

the government of China, and they're two very

0:12

different things. things. In 2022 I spoke to Nick I

0:14

spoke to Nick Burns on this podcast. Burns

0:17

had recently become U .S. Ambassador to

0:19

China and our conversation came at

0:21

an especially challenging time in the relationship

0:23

that he was charged with navigating. Escalating

0:26

differences over everything from trade

0:29

and technology to and Ukraine had left

0:31

policymakers in Washington and Beijing

0:33

increasingly at odds. at Two years

0:35

later, Burns' sense of America's competition

0:37

with China has in many ways

0:39

sharpened. Washington and Beijing remain

0:41

at odds over those issues. and

0:43

more. and with Donald Trump returning to the

0:46

White House in a few days, a few

0:48

the future of the relationship between the

0:50

world's two superpowers remains more fraught and

0:52

uncertain than ever. than ever. For a a

0:54

bonus episode, I I wanted to have have back

0:56

on the show back a few days before he

0:58

leaves China. For his insights into what drives

1:00

Xi Jinping, his assessment of

1:02

Chinese power, and his reflections on

1:04

a tenure in Beijing during a

1:07

time of historic geopolitical a

1:09

time of historic geopolitical strain.

1:17

Nick, thank thank you so much for

1:19

joining me for a second time. We're talking

1:21

just a few days before you leave you leave

1:24

Beijing in Beijing, years since arriving and come back

1:26

home. and come back thank you very much. I've been

1:28

looking forward to this conversation. There's a lot

1:30

to talk about. Well, I want

1:32

to start with talk somewhat personal question. You

1:34

know, over the past few years, you've almost

1:36

surely spent more time in the room with

1:38

Xi Jinping past any other American, I would venture

1:40

to say. You've been there for meetings with

1:42

room with Biden and Tony Blinken and Jake Sullivan

1:45

and others. venture to say. How is that time sitting

1:47

right across the table? from she and

1:49

those and those repeated

1:51

discussions change your

1:53

understanding of him. him?

1:55

You know, what's your

1:57

sense of what

2:00

drives him, what worries

2:02

him, him, how he

2:04

sees the world,

2:06

especially the things that

2:09

those of us

2:11

who are watching from

2:13

a distance may

2:15

miss. may miss? Well obviously Shizin Ping

2:17

is a supremely powerful leader of China.

2:20

I think you have to go back

2:22

to Mao to find a Chinese leader

2:24

with so much power in the system

2:26

and he's been in office now for

2:28

quite a long time over 12 years

2:31

so obviously he's very experienced. He's put

2:33

in place a Chinese foreign and defense

2:35

policy that's very ambitious and very aggressive

2:37

and that's what we have to react

2:39

to. China is seeking to become the

2:42

dominant power in the Indo-Pacific. There's no

2:44

question about that. China, led by President

2:46

Xi, in his relationship with North Korea,

2:48

with Iran and Russia, has formed an

2:50

authoritarian group that is contesting. A lot

2:53

of what we put in place after

2:55

the Second World War to keep Europe

2:57

and the world peaceful and to establish

2:59

liberal values, liberal in the small L

3:01

of the word values, democratic values, values

3:04

of human rights, of state sovereignty. that

3:06

you can't cross someone else's border and

3:08

invade it just because you want to

3:10

do that. That's what Putin has done

3:12

in Ukraine. So he's a very self-assured,

3:15

I think self-confident, leader, and the way

3:17

he interacts with others around the world.

3:19

He is very well-informed, and China has

3:21

followed a foreign defense policy that's highly

3:23

strategic. I'll give you one example. Foreign

3:26

Minister Wangi just left Beijing yesterday on

3:28

a trip to four countries in Africa.

3:30

This is the 35th consecutive year that

3:32

the Chinese foreign minister has begun the

3:34

year with a trip to Africa. Now

3:37

that's strategic focus. It's the kind of

3:39

thing that's very difficult to do in

3:41

any democratic society when you have alternates

3:43

of power between different leaders and different

3:45

political parties, but it's that kind of

3:48

continuity that the Chinese rely upon to

3:50

expand their influence in the world. Obviously,

3:52

Dan, and I'll just finish on this,

3:54

we have a very... competitive, challenging and

3:57

often very contentious relationship. Sometimes in diplomatic

3:59

terms, it's done in a way that

4:01

I think both countries understand, but we

4:03

have enormous differences between us. And I

4:05

think that's at the heart of all

4:08

of our interactions with the Chinese. You

4:10

know, there's this debate as you're obviously

4:12

aware in government circles and places like

4:14

foreign affairs and books about whether Xi

4:16

Jinping is an ideologue or a pragmatist.

4:19

How do you see that question having

4:21

spent time in all of these discussions

4:23

with him? I think what has characterized

4:25

his term of office as a belief

4:27

in the Communist Party and to make

4:30

the Communist Party the supreme repository of

4:32

power in the Chinese system. So there

4:34

is a government of China, as you

4:36

know. There is a state council, for

4:38

instance. But in many ways, the party

4:41

has risen above state authorities and is

4:43

the supreme place of ideological, economic, political,

4:45

regulatory power in the Chinese system. That's

4:47

what's changed. What's also changed, of course,

4:49

is the concept that Deng Xiaoping brought

4:52

in after the excesses of Mao that

4:54

there should be a group that leads

4:56

China. And of course sheshin Ping is

4:58

singular in his power. So it's very

5:00

apparent that the party controls everything. And

5:03

you see that in the provinces and

5:05

I've been to 23 of the 31

5:07

provinces of China and just over the

5:09

last several months have met with a

5:11

large number of party secretaries. These are

5:14

the communist party secretaries who run each

5:16

of the provinces, much like our governors,

5:18

but they take central direction from the

5:20

party in Beijing. And so I think

5:22

this is a unique time in modern

5:25

Chinese history, where some of the dictums

5:27

of Deng Xiaoping have really been put

5:29

aside for power centralized in one person.

5:31

The other thing you see here is

5:34

that studying party texts, studying Leninism. studying

5:36

marks and angles is something that now

5:38

every Chinese official is required to do

5:40

and it's quite striking to me.

5:42

Chinese officials who will

5:45

tell you, you

5:47

know, I've been for

5:49

the last five

5:51

or six days at

5:53

the Central Party the

5:56

Central Beijing. in I

5:58

had to go back

6:00

for study. for Now,

6:02

that doesn't happen

6:04

in most societies, but

6:07

it happens here.

6:09

So I think what's

6:11

really been pronounced

6:13

here. been pronounced here, in my

6:15

time here, is the rise of the the

6:17

rise of of this of the leader. of a leader. The

6:20

last time you were on this podcast a little

6:22

over two years ago, you you talked about

6:24

the Chinese view the deeply held that the United

6:26

States is in decline and that the West

6:28

weren't generally is in decline. I think you think

6:30

you said the party leaders of of us as

6:32

a nation that is weakening. Your sense, of Your

6:34

sense, of course, is that was wrong of much

6:36

of what the Biden administration was doing was

6:39

intent on proving that was wrong. Yet the

6:41

rhetoric at least that you hear from Xi

6:43

Jinping and other Chinese leaders. leaders. changed all

6:45

that much. It's still versions of the West

6:47

is declining and the East is rising is whatever

6:49

the formulation of the year is rising what extent

6:51

is that the genuine view or do they have

6:53

a sort of different net assessment of US and

6:55

Chinese power from what you can tell? view or

6:58

you know, they said that the East is rising

7:00

and the West is falling US leaders said that

7:02

with a great deal of self you can tell? Well,

7:04

you I think they were convinced that this

7:06

was their time to lead in the

7:08

world along with Russia and other authoritarian countries.

7:10

I wonder if, in their heart of

7:12

hearts, that's what they still believe. is falling. Because

7:14

certainly if you look at what at what

7:17

Biden has been able to do, and we've

7:19

worked very hard on this, we have

7:21

strengthened our strategic position. our strategic the

7:23

world and specifically in the Indo

7:25

-Pacific in -vis China. We're stronger. v.

7:27

China. stronger and it's because

7:29

of our alliances. our They're the

7:31

force multiplier the American foreign

7:33

policy. We cannot forsake our

7:35

alliances, our but the U the US

7:37

Japan strategic Partnership is stronger than

7:39

it was four years ago.

7:41

four The Philippines has flipped. flipped

7:44

from President Duterte to Marcos, has opened up

7:46

nine of its bases to the

7:48

American military is acting strategically with the

7:50

United States. course, you know you Australia.

7:52

Australia, you You know about the rise

7:54

of you know You know about the rise

7:56

of the quad. In fact, In fact, I'll

7:58

be in a Quad meeting tomorrow. with

8:00

my Indian and Japanese and Australian industrial

8:02

counterparts here. We work very closely together.

8:04

And so I think in a sense

8:06

we've upped our game. It's very difficult

8:09

for the Chinese to argue that they're

8:11

the strongest military power in the Indo-Pacific

8:13

when you have these democratic powers working

8:15

together. And it also is a function,

8:17

Dan, of the fact that China's faced...

8:20

a considerable number of domestic problems, particularly

8:22

with the economy, the lack of consumption,

8:24

the fact that the property crisis has

8:26

not really been overcome, the youth unemployment,

8:29

the fall in foreign direct investment, there

8:31

were two quarters in 2024, when there

8:33

was negative FDI here, more money leaving

8:35

foreign money, leaving investments in China than

8:37

coming in. All this has, I think,

8:40

shaken, the leadership here, they're very focused

8:42

on this issue and consider... the enormous

8:44

strengths of the American economy. Consider the

8:46

power of our tech companies in AI

8:48

and that's given us a lead in

8:51

AI and may we keep that lead.

8:53

And so some Chinese officials still say

8:55

the east is rising and the west

8:57

is falling. I don't think there's conviction

9:00

there and it's certainly not supported by

9:02

the facts. So as this administration comes

9:04

to an end, I think we can

9:06

say with great confidence, we have strengthened

9:08

the American position in a long-running competition

9:11

for power. And for me... I knew

9:13

that was my central job when I

9:15

came out here, but as I prepared

9:17

to leave next week and resign my

9:19

ambassadorship, I'm confident that the United States

9:22

has competed effectively in the military realm

9:24

that we've talked about, certainly in technology,

9:26

and it's been very interesting Dan to

9:28

see that As I assess the relationship,

9:30

technology has taken center stage. It's the

9:33

heart of the relationship now. It's about

9:35

who is going to be the first

9:37

mover, both in commercial and technological terms,

9:39

but also in military terms, on artificial

9:42

intelligence, on quantum computing, on biotechnology, and

9:44

a number of other areas. power of

9:46

the American research universities and our tech

9:48

companies and the confluence between them and

9:50

federal funding has put us in a

9:53

very advantageous position. And so we've pressed

9:55

that advantage and obviously we're also looking

9:57

at the issues that really separate us

9:59

from China and that is our belief

10:01

in human freedom and our belief in

10:04

human rights. And that is a powerful.

10:06

argument for what we've been trying to

10:08

do with the Japanese and what even

10:10

the Europeans who are acting strategically now

10:13

in China have been able to do

10:15

to separate ourselves from their view of

10:17

the future that it should be authoritarian

10:19

led in the world in our view

10:21

that it should be in one of

10:24

freedom and one of democracy. I want

10:26

to pick up on a lot of

10:28

those dimensions of the competition and of

10:30

the relationship that have consumed you for

10:32

the last few years, but just to

10:35

linger on the economy for a moment,

10:37

it's kind of striking to watch this

10:39

debate from the United States. where lots

10:41

of Western observers, whether policymakers or economists

10:43

or investors or others, have watched the

10:46

performance of the Chinese economy since the

10:48

end of zero COVID and insisted that

10:50

at some point leadership would really have

10:52

to change course in a dramatic way

10:55

and resort to kind of reform and

10:57

stimulus measures and be more friendly to

10:59

FDI and foreign business. that does not

11:01

seem to be the view of Xi

11:03

Jinping or other Chinese leaders. They seem

11:06

quite committed to their course. What is

11:08

their view, their understanding of the Chinese

11:10

economy, and what is the disconnect between

11:12

the kinds of advice that Americans might

11:14

give and what they see as the

11:17

necessary course. Well, there's certainly been a

11:19

reluctance here on the part of the

11:21

leadership to engage in the type of

11:23

major stimulus action that, say, President Biden

11:26

did in 2021 that helped to bring

11:28

us out of the very difficult position

11:30

that he inherited when he came into

11:32

office and very different than what President

11:34

Bush and President Obama did. to respond

11:37

to the financial crisis of 2008 and

11:39

9 and 10. They've not made that

11:41

commitment. Now they have loosened as they

11:43

say moderately their monetary policy. A big

11:45

problem here is the indebtedness of the

11:48

provincial governments, and

11:50

they've put and they a

11:52

considerable amount of

11:54

funds aside to try

11:56

to deal with

11:59

that. to deal at the

12:01

heart of it,

12:03

they appear to be

12:05

in a deflationary

12:08

situation. The Chinese people are

12:10

sitting on their money, because the

12:12

property crisis, the property is where

12:14

a lot of Chinese had their wealth

12:16

had apartments. in And as the bottom

12:18

has fallen out, and the value of

12:20

those apartments of plummeted, and there

12:22

are something like 70 or 80 million

12:25

empty apartments now million empty they overbuilt, now

12:27

that's the core of the crisis. that's

12:29

the so the put their And so

12:31

elsewhere. What they say they're

12:33

doing What to engage in high

12:35

is to manufacturing, and

12:37

so they've doubled down. doubled down on

12:40

productions of electric vehicles, lithium

12:42

batteries, solar panels, robotics, steel, steel, they're

12:44

and they're producing to to three

12:46

times domestic demand in many

12:48

of those areas. what And what

12:50

they're doing is they're exporting. exporting the

12:53

excess at artificially low prices,

12:55

they're and they're in it in

12:57

classical economic terms in countries around

12:59

the world. So you know

13:01

what we've done. President Biden raised

13:04

our tariffs on to 100% on on

13:06

to 50% on lithium on

13:09

lithium batteries to the but it's

13:11

not just the United States.

13:13

Who else has placed tariffs on

13:15

China of this massive export of

13:18

the excess of the capacity here?

13:20

Turkey. South Africa, Brazil,

13:23

Brazil, Chile, Mexico,

13:26

Canada, the the European Union. there's has

13:28

been a reaction from all over the

13:30

world to China dumping its problems

13:32

on the rest of the world

13:34

with a the to to kill the

13:37

manufacturing capacity of many of our

13:39

countries. Secretary Janet Yellen just had

13:41

a conversation. The other night Vice Premier

13:43

Hurley Fung is a who's a very powerful economic

13:45

official here and and she has raised this issue

13:47

in a really vigorous way. I was

13:49

with her when she visited here in China

13:51

back in April. We April. had had hours

13:53

of conversations. She She focused on

13:56

this. She warned them not to try to

13:58

do this, and there will be consequences. and

14:00

now the Chinese are feeling the consequences. So they put

14:02

all this effort into manufacturing as a way to resolve

14:04

their problems. What it does is it ticks up your

14:06

GDP growth rate because they want to hit 5% to

14:08

show that they're healthy, but it's not dealing with the

14:10

major problem. The Chinese people are not spending. Consumption is

14:13

down. And there is a deflationary aspect to all of

14:15

this. So I think that is. the heart of the

14:17

issue for the Chinese. Will they now engage in very

14:19

dramatic ways to try to meet this crisis? And there's

14:21

no sign yet that they're going to take that major

14:23

type of relief effort. I was struck when I was

14:25

last in Beijing when I saw you there a little

14:28

over a year and a half ago at how much.

14:30

pessimism there was among students at elite universities. And this

14:32

was obviously a very impressionistic sense from my brief visit

14:34

there, but the difficulty that elite students had finding jobs,

14:36

the extent of unemployment, the desire people to stay in

14:38

school longer, China hands occasionally point out that that's a

14:40

rather distressing signal for Chinese dynacies historically. And we've also

14:43

seen this series of what are called revenge on society

14:45

attacks, which, you know, also suggests a level of social

14:47

discontent that may not be readily apparent to outside observers

14:49

outside observers. Is there ferment and dissension under the surface,

14:51

that is hard for us to see from the outside.

14:53

I mean, what is your sense of the degree of

14:55

political stability in an authoritarian system that is very opaque

14:58

to the rest of those? Well, Dan, it's obviously a

15:00

central question, and you're right to ask it. You know,

15:02

even with my years here in China, I'm humble. I

15:04

think all of us should be a little bit humble

15:06

in trying to understand the direction of 1.4 billion people.

15:08

Obviously, one of the problems here is youth unemployment. It

15:10

was so high. a year ago that they actually changed

15:13

the way they measure it in order to reduce what

15:15

they say the youth unemployment figures. But that's a major

15:17

problem of highly educated young people who come back to

15:19

China from the United States or Europe or Australia or

15:21

from the great universities here with MBAs and PAs.

15:23

and can't find a job.

15:25

That's a big problem. We've

15:28

seen that in our visa

15:30

lines. In 2023, we issued

15:32

104 ,000 new student visas to

15:34

Chinese students this year, excuse

15:36

me, 2024, just under that.

15:38

We now have 277 ,000

15:40

Chinese students in the United

15:43

States. It's the largest undergraduate

15:45

population of any foreign country

15:47

in the United States. So

15:49

you can see students are

15:51

looking to education as a

15:53

way to try to delay

15:55

the difficult prospect of finding

15:58

a job. That is an

16:00

issue here. And at the

16:02

same time, the Chinese economy

16:04

has stumbled. So that's a

16:06

major problem, I think, for

16:08

young people as they look

16:10

at their future here. But

16:13

I have to say, to

16:15

be fair, and to be

16:17

a little bit balanced and

16:19

a little bit humble about

16:21

this, every Chinese young person

16:23

can look at their grandmother

16:25

and grandfather and see that

16:28

they, the younger people, are

16:30

living better than their grandfather

16:32

and grandmother. And that's absolutely

16:34

true in economic terms. They

16:36

can also see a country

16:38

here that has succeeded in

16:40

so many ways. The infrastructure

16:43

of this country, the cities

16:45

that have been rebuilt here

16:47

that are much easier and

16:49

more pleasant places to live

16:51

if you're Chinese. There's a

16:53

great deal of nationalism here.

16:56

And so the pride that

16:58

the Chinese feel in their

17:00

space program, in their level

17:02

of economic development, in the

17:04

influence that China has in

17:06

places like Africa and South

17:08

America where they are now

17:11

the leading economic partner of

17:13

most of those countries. So

17:15

I think you have to

17:17

balance this, and I'm trying

17:19

to speak objectively here just

17:21

as I observe this country.

17:23

There's a great deal of

17:26

pride in China. And we

17:28

experience it sometimes in a

17:30

great deal of anti -Americanism if

17:32

you look at the massive

17:34

number of people, millions of

17:36

people on these online debates.

17:38

And there's a great sense

17:41

of pride in China. So

17:43

we who are interacting with

17:45

this country, and I've been

17:47

very critical of the Chinese

17:49

government here on a number

17:51

of issues have to understand

17:53

that the Chinese people are

17:56

also sharing on their government

17:58

as they take on some

18:00

of these, we think, very

18:02

objectionable and objectionable policies

18:05

overseas. to hear be really

18:07

curious to hear how your thought about

18:09

your role as a kind of public

18:11

critic of some of these Chinese actions. and

18:13

you hear some of the more traditional

18:15

China China hands complaining respectfully that an should be much

18:17

more restrained and leave that kind of

18:19

criticism to the press secretary at the

18:21

House. You've obviously done this quite self -consciously.

18:24

You're one of the most skilled and

18:26

experienced diplomats in the United States. in the

18:28

United you think about you tension, that you

18:30

make the decision to be outspoken in

18:32

the way you have? way you have? I'd say say

18:34

two things. First of all, one of

18:36

my major jobs here is to to interact

18:38

with the government of China. in there have

18:40

been times when I haven't said much said much

18:42

weeks my my first period when I was

18:45

here, months. months, Because you understand, you you

18:47

have to build relationships, you have to try

18:49

to work out difficult issues behind the

18:51

scenes. You can't just argue in public about

18:53

issues and get very far. and And we've

18:55

been very disciplined about that. We were

18:57

able to achieve the liberation of four Americans

18:59

from prison here in China. Some of

19:02

them of them. How for a very of time. them time

19:04

David Lin, for 17 years we did all

19:06

that through through diplomacy, so I've obviously done

19:08

a lot of that here. a lot of But

19:10

there are other times are other times when

19:12

it's incumbent upon the American ambassador

19:14

here to speak out speak out. on human

19:16

rights violations, for instance, or on

19:18

the fact that Chinese companies are

19:20

supplying major technical support to the

19:22

Russian war machine, the Russian defense

19:24

base. There are times when you

19:26

have to apply that public pressure

19:28

and speak out. speak out. so in my

19:30

my dealings with the government of

19:32

China, I've been very conscious of

19:34

that balance, that sometimes you've got

19:36

to work behind the scenes and

19:38

be disciplined about not speaking in

19:40

public. not sometimes it's sometimes it's absolutely necessary. to say

19:43

and declare what the United States believes.

19:45

believes. The other thing I'd say is

19:47

that is is an ambassador to a

19:49

government, but also to a country. to

19:51

a country. so in addition to spending

19:53

a lot of time, time, sometimes at very very

19:55

late hours, and in terms of

19:58

long debates about Taiwan and other issues.

20:00

Chinese officials, I've tried to spend a

20:02

lot of time with my terrific team

20:04

of diplomats here in getting out and

20:06

meeting provincial governors and mayors and heads

20:08

of non-profits and business people and the

20:10

Chinese people. And it's interesting, when you

20:13

leave Beijing, very few people ask you

20:15

about Taiwan. They want to know, are

20:17

you really open to giving visas to

20:19

Chinese students to study at University of

20:21

Texas or UCLA? They want to know

20:23

about investment. They want to talk about

20:26

the Second World War because they relate

20:28

to the United States and we're just

20:30

commemorating the 80th anniversary starting now of

20:32

the end of that war. in 1945.

20:34

And it's a big issue that the

20:36

Chinese people take pride in that we

20:38

fought with them in that war. So

20:41

you've got to do both as an

20:43

ambassador. You're ambassador to the people of

20:45

China and also to the government of

20:47

China. And they're two very different things.

20:49

I have been very critical at times

20:51

of the government of China, but always

20:53

try to engage the people of China.

20:56

And I do think, Dan, this is

20:58

a national security issue. for the United

21:00

States. It's not just a nice thing

21:02

to do to connect our two societies,

21:04

it's a necessary thing to do. We

21:06

once had 15,000 American students here. That

21:09

was 10 years ago. And because of

21:11

COVID and the Chinese policy of zero

21:13

COVID with its quarantines and embargoes, we

21:15

went down to 350 American students two

21:17

years ago. We've actually counted. Our public

21:19

affairs team went to every university and

21:21

said, how many American students do you

21:24

have? We think it's 1,105. So modest

21:26

progress from a low base, but. that

21:28

just two societies need to be connected.

21:30

I think we found in the old

21:32

Cold War, and I'm old enough to

21:34

remember that old Cold War and to

21:36

have worked in it as a younger

21:39

diplomat. When you separate and decouple two

21:41

societies, it doesn't help in our ability

21:43

to understand what motivates the other country,

21:45

the history and culture of that country.

21:47

And the last thing I'd say on

21:49

this is we have so few American

21:52

students here now. I am blessed. by

21:54

an embassy filled with American diplomats who

21:56

speak Mandarin fluently, who have been here

21:58

two or three times. I worry about

22:00

my successor 10 or 15 years from

22:02

now who will not have this kind

22:04

of bench. So again, sometimes people say,

22:07

well, that's just a nice thing to

22:09

do. It's not a nice thing to

22:11

do to keep our societies connected in

22:13

a very difficult relationship. It's a necessary

22:15

thing to do so that we can

22:17

be effective in the way that we

22:20

deal with this country. a positive thing

22:22

in most ways. My guess is that

22:24

most members of the next administration will

22:26

not at least at first see it

22:28

that way, that they will see it

22:30

through the lens of security threats of

22:32

various kinds. How would you advise them

22:35

to think through that question? What's your

22:37

case for seeing it the way you

22:39

see it? Well, I have a very

22:41

clear view of this, as does our

22:43

administration, by the way, the President and

22:45

Secretary of Lincoln and others. We follow

22:47

an executive order that President Trump put

22:50

into place. in 2020, which essentially says

22:52

if a Chinese student is seeking to

22:54

study, let's just say for obvious purposes,

22:56

nuclear weapons design at Carnegie Mellon, that

22:58

student's not going to get the visa.

23:00

If a Chinese student at the graduate

23:03

level is going to be in a

23:05

STEM field that could help the PLA

23:07

or the Chinese intelligence services, we're going

23:09

to turn down those students and we

23:11

do that. So we are very mindful

23:13

of trying to separate out Chinese students

23:15

who are going to the United States

23:18

for positive reasons and who will not

23:20

present when they come back to China,

23:22

some kind of security threat to our

23:24

country. But on the other hand, those

23:26

277,000 Chinese students in the United States,

23:28

they will come back to China with

23:31

an understanding of our democratic society. They're

23:33

going to see their peer American students

23:35

being able to exercise freedom of speech.

23:37

freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, that

23:39

you can go out on strike and

23:41

you can demonstrate because you're passionate about

23:43

an issue as long as you're that

23:46

peacefully, that doesn't happen here in China.

23:48

So in that sense, you're exposing millions

23:50

of Chinese students over a 30 or

23:52

40 year period to the best

23:54

aspects of our democracy.

23:56

And And the second

23:58

reason why we

24:01

need those students in

24:03

the United States, a

24:05

lot of them end up up working for

24:08

American companies. They They work in

24:10

research labs. work They work particularly in

24:12

the tech field, and I very

24:14

much believe in the H the H-1B program.

24:16

on that side on that side of the

24:18

debate that we ought to be

24:20

recruiting the smartest Indian and Brazilian and

24:22

South African and Chinese students, as as

24:24

long as they're not a security

24:26

threat and you screen people. screen And

24:28

because that will empower us in our

24:30

competition with China. China on the on the tech

24:32

front, which is the heart of the competition. And

24:34

it's been good to see other

24:36

voices Condoleezza in foreign affairs. Just a couple

24:39

of months ago, that she thinks that

24:41

we need to continue to welcome Chinese

24:43

students on our campuses. I very much

24:45

agree with her. students on

24:47

our We'll be back after a short break.

24:49

agree with her. We'll be back after a

24:51

short break. and now back to my

24:53

conversation with Nick Burns. Nick Burns. So

24:56

I So I imagine when you're outside of

24:59

Beijing and and being asked about Taiwan, you're

25:01

mostly relieved to not be having that

25:03

conversation. But since you are in Beijing, I'm

25:05

gonna ask you about Taiwan. Beijing, I'm This

25:07

has been one of the most complicated parts

25:09

of your job, I imagine, for the

25:11

last few years. I imagine, There have been lots

25:13

of different comments from members of the

25:16

administration and lots of debate in public about

25:18

what exactly Chinese about intentions are vis -a -vis

25:20

Taiwan, and what they're thinking about unification, how

25:22

they see the direction of politics in

25:24

Taiwan. in Taiwan. as you sit there and wrap

25:26

up your your time of What is your assessment

25:28

of their current thinking around Taiwan? How

25:31

do they assess their chances, the timeline, and how has

25:33

that changed over the last few years? that There's

25:35

no question the Chinese leadership

25:37

has been very clear about this.

25:39

They intend to bring Taiwan, to

25:42

they would say, as back

25:44

into the back Republic of China.

25:46

course, of China. Of government has not

25:48

ruled from the mainland, Taiwan, since

25:50

1895. since 1895. But there's no

25:52

question the strategic ambition of China.

25:55

They make of China. They clear every

25:57

single day, publicly and privately

25:59

to us. We've been very consistent

26:01

with the One China policy of the

26:03

American government since 1979 when President Jimmy

26:05

Carter normalized relations with China. And we've

26:08

been very consistent in speaking up and

26:10

arguing with the Chinese government here in

26:12

Beijing that they're making a mistake to

26:15

be so belligerent. And they're making a

26:17

mistake to try to intimidate Taiwan itself.

26:19

And so we're exercising our responsibilities under

26:22

the Taiwan Relations Act, which is the

26:24

law of the land in the United

26:26

States to provide defensive military technology to

26:29

Taiwan. We've done that in a very

26:31

vigorous way. We also stand up for

26:33

the principle. that this cross-strate differences of

26:36

long-standing has to be resolved peacefully. And

26:38

we challenge China to do that, that

26:40

it must be a peaceful resolution of

26:43

this dispute. And we think that it

26:45

would be a better step by the

26:47

government and China to talk to the

26:50

Taiwan authorities, talk to President Lai, and

26:52

they've refused to do that. I also

26:54

think this is another way we've strengthened

26:56

the American position in the Indo-Pacific. You

26:59

see that Japan. has been much more

27:01

outspoken, much more vigorous on this question

27:03

of Taiwan than they had before, the

27:06

Philippines in the same way. And it's

27:08

also interesting to see the number of

27:10

members of the European parliaments and a

27:13

Bundestag, the French National Assembly, flying into

27:15

Taipei to show political support, humanitarian support.

27:17

for the Taiwan authorities. So we've obviously

27:20

got to build up our capacity to

27:22

deal with any kind of eventuality there

27:24

and we of course do that. But

27:27

we I think are in a strong

27:29

position in arguing to the rest of

27:31

the world that all of us should

27:34

insist that this problem be resolved peacefully

27:36

and Sean has refused to do that.

27:38

They reserve the right to use force.

27:41

And Secretary Blinken has been warning publicly

27:43

for the last two years. If the

27:45

Taiwan Strait were ever closed, think of

27:47

the... enormous negative consequences for the global

27:50

economy. because half the

27:52

container traffic in

27:54

the world in a

27:57

monthly basis flows

27:59

through the Taiwan Taiwan

28:01

given the strength of

28:04

the strength of here

28:06

in North Asia. in North

28:08

Asia. So think we've been consistent. It's

28:10

hard to find an issue. an issue where

28:13

the United States States over 45, 46 46

28:15

years from been from every administration

28:17

to the next, both parties remarkably

28:19

consistent. So we've stayed with American

28:21

policy because it has worked. has And

28:23

we hope it will in the

28:25

future. in the future. Is your level of

28:27

concern about about a in the Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait

28:29

or lower than it was as you it

28:32

was when you arrived a few years ago? few

28:34

years ago? I would just would just say

28:36

this, I admire Admiral Sam head of our who

28:38

is the head of command in Command in

28:40

Honolulu. our our senior military official in

28:42

the Indo -Pacific and he and I work

28:44

closely together and he said in his

28:46

confirmation hearings this a question like

28:48

that, he said, look, we have to be

28:50

prepared be day every day. we can't think about

28:52

timelines five years years from now 15 or 15

28:54

years from now and I think that's

28:56

a good way for our military to think

28:58

about the problem and certainly for those

29:00

of us in the us in the to think

29:02

about this problem. We have to be ready

29:04

day. day so we're on it. to

29:07

be We have vigorous discussions with

29:09

the Chinese leadership with the about

29:11

Taiwan. about They understand our position and

29:13

we've mobilized other countries countries. the

29:15

European Union Union the NATO countries,

29:17

but particularly the countries in East

29:19

Asia the say to the Chinese, to

29:21

say to the Chinese, got to act

29:23

in a way that's going to

29:25

be constructive here. that And that

29:27

gets to what we were talking

29:29

about, a a peaceful resolution of

29:31

dispute, diplomatic dialogue with the with the

29:34

Taiwan authorities, etc. In some ways, it

29:36

seems harder, again, observing it from afar,

29:38

to imagine how we avoid a crisis

29:40

in the South China Sea given developments

29:42

that are on 2nd Thomas Shull and

29:44

just watching Chinese Chinese activities there the last

29:46

few years. few years. What will it take

29:48

to avoid that kind of crisis of crisis? And,

29:50

know, know, again, where's your level of

29:52

anxiety as you as you apart? it It

29:54

takes strength. strength and consistency and

29:56

clarity, I and I think we've been

29:58

all of those things. in the objectionable way

30:01

that the PLA Navy and the government

30:03

of China have treated the Philippines, for

30:05

instance, at Second Thomas Shoal, and two

30:08

other parts of the South China Sea.

30:10

And China has this extravagant legal claim

30:12

that asserts. against five other claimants to

30:14

the Spratley and Paracel Islands in the

30:17

South China Sea, indeed also to the

30:19

Sinkaku-Daiu Islands in the East China Sea,

30:21

where it contests Japanese administrative control of

30:24

the Sinkaku's, and nobody supports China around

30:26

the world. Their legal claim is not

30:28

valid under the law of the Sea

30:30

Conference of 1972, which is the international

30:33

law of land. And so we need

30:35

to be clear, and we have been

30:37

clear, that we are a treaty ally

30:40

of the Philippines. And under Article 4

30:42

of the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty between

30:44

the United States and the Philippines, we

30:46

have an obligation to defend the Philippines.

30:49

And the President and Secretary Austin and

30:51

Secretary Lincoln and myself here in conversations

30:53

with the Chinese have been very consistent

30:56

in telling them there is a line

30:58

not to cross here. And this gets

31:00

back to allies. I started as a

31:03

practicing diplomat 45 years ago. I'm that

31:05

old as a. 24-year-old intern in the

31:07

State Department. And I'm about to resign

31:09

from the State Department. The fundamental lesson

31:12

I have learned about American power and

31:14

the world is we are powerful. But

31:16

in large part, especially in this part

31:19

of the world, as a function of

31:21

our alliance relationships, that they multiply our

31:23

power, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand,

31:25

Australia, our treaty allies here, they expand

31:28

the power of the United States. And

31:30

a lot of people want to measure,

31:32

as you know Dan, the competition between

31:35

the United States and China who's stronger

31:37

in terms of nuclear weapons and naval

31:39

power and air power and the economy.

31:41

It's a false way of measuring power.

31:44

You've got to measure China versus the

31:46

United States and Japan and South Korea,

31:48

etc. and the Philippines. Peans

31:51

in Australia and Thailand.

31:53

Thailand. And if we're interested

31:55

in out competing

31:58

the Chinese and we

32:00

have to be

32:02

as Americans, staying close

32:04

to our allies, to

32:07

not not our allies,

32:09

allies, not trying to

32:12

the allies publicly or the

32:14

allies publicly publicly or them their own contest

32:16

their own borders and their

32:18

own national sovereignty I think this think

32:21

this is a big issue foreign

32:23

policy. policy. I've been so proud to

32:25

work for President Biden. Biden. who

32:27

has strengthened our our from day

32:29

one day one his administration. And

32:31

if you want a strong America, a

32:33

you have to have strong alliances

32:35

in the modern world. in That's true

32:37

of world. I was ambassador there on I

32:39

was ambassador I saw how I saw how Canada, by

32:41

by the way, country that's been in

32:44

the news this week, this week, was first

32:46

country. assert that assert that we ought

32:48

to invoke Article 5, the NATO treaty defend

32:50

the United States. States. And all all

32:52

these countries, Canada, Denmark, have been

32:54

with us with us and again in the the

32:56

wars that we've had to fight, fight,

32:59

in the struggle for power we've

33:01

had with Putin and Europe, but also

33:03

with the Chinese leadership here in

33:05

the Indo leadership So here my fundamental So

33:08

that's my fundamental walking

33:10

away Don't forsake your allies. Keep

33:12

them close, honor them. close, and

33:14

support them. support them. One dimension of

33:17

the South China and and Taiwan issue I

33:19

just want to get your thoughts on

33:21

because it's been so perplexing to to from

33:23

outside China is what exactly is going on

33:25

in the the People's Liberation Army what what the

33:27

dynamic between Xi Xi and PLA leadership has

33:29

been. There have been this series of

33:31

purges and leadership changes. you Do purges you have

33:34

any understanding of that that you can

33:36

share? share? There's been a a amount

33:38

of turbulence. of You've seen it. It's

33:40

been quite public. It's been quite public. instituted an

33:42

anti -corruption campaign shortly after he took power

33:44

in late 2012. late A lot of

33:46

people thought back then, then, was a long

33:48

time ago, that it might be just

33:50

short be just But it's actually been. been

33:53

an on-running -corruption campaign that hasn't

33:55

stopped stopped. And it has has

33:57

focused on. figures and

33:59

business. business figures and political figures,

34:01

party figures, but also the military.

34:03

And that has continued just over

34:05

the last couple of weeks where

34:07

very senior military officers has been

34:09

brought up on charges. So it's

34:11

often hard to know exactly what

34:13

that means in terms of capability

34:15

and strategy, but it's not a

34:17

positive sign if you're trying to

34:19

have a united military that's focused

34:21

on these strategic challenges. So we

34:23

watch it very carefully, obviously, and

34:25

try to understand it as best

34:27

we can. To go back.

34:30

to the -China relationship. I mean, the view

34:32

you hear from both Chinese government spokespeople,

34:34

but also from fairly sophisticated Chinese academics

34:36

and analysts who have been invested in

34:38

the US -China relationship for a long time,

34:40

is this view that there is now

34:42

a bipartisan commitment to something very like

34:44

containment in the US foreign policy system.

34:47

I think that's been a surprise or

34:49

was a surprise early on Biden in

34:51

many ways continued some of the tougher

34:53

aspects of the Trump policy when you

34:55

hear your Chinese counterparts talking about containment.

34:57

What is the argument you have with

34:59

them? you seek to convince them that's

35:02

not the case? Is there evidence that

35:04

it's wrong? Or do you think that

35:06

does in fact get at some elements

35:08

of our policy? We have

35:10

not used that word, containment, the

35:12

Kenan word from the long telegram

35:14

and the foreign affairs article in

35:17

1947, but what we do tell

35:19

the Chinese leadership. is,

35:21

look, you have been

35:23

unnecessarily aggressive. in contesting

35:25

American power and the power of

35:27

our allies all across the world in

35:29

the South China Sea, in the

35:32

East China Sea, in the Taiwan Strait,

35:34

the support that Chinese companies obviously

35:36

with the support of the government here

35:38

in Beijing, the enormous support they've

35:40

given to Russia to rage this brutal

35:42

war in Ukraine, the fact that

35:44

China is embarked on this extraordinary buildup

35:46

of the People's Liberation Army, that

35:48

they're building up and look at our

35:51

unclassified Pentagon report of the last

35:53

couple of weeks on Chinese military. They're

35:55

building up their nuclear weapons force at

35:57

an unprecedented level and they refuse any

36:00

kind of transparency about it. It's

36:02

the first time first age since

36:04

the test the Test of 1963 that a

36:06

a major nuclear weapons power refuses talk

36:08

to to talk to any country

36:10

about what it's doing. issue I should another

36:12

issue the should talk about, the

36:14

cyber aggression against the United States

36:16

and its allies that Ray and and

36:19

others have talked about publicly. So

36:21

the message the leadership is is contesting. our

36:23

power power and our on so so many

36:25

different fronts, have you have to expect a

36:27

think that is what has I think that is

36:30

what has united leaders of a Democratic and

36:32

the and the Republican Party in both both houses

36:34

of Congress, I I speak to members

36:36

of Congress all the time when I'm

36:38

back in Washington about this. And that

36:40

has also motivated the Biden administration to

36:42

be very competitive with the Chinese. with And

36:45

so And so I think of it as

36:47

competitions in four spheres, the military competition

36:49

in the Indo -Pacific where we have to

36:51

hold our ground. our ground. and a

36:53

situation where the PLA overtakes the

36:55

American military in power. we're going

36:57

to accomplish that. to Second, that. to

36:59

compete on to front, which is

37:01

the new battlefield which is which is

37:03

at the heart of this competition. is

37:06

at the we have been all and

37:08

on that competition. on Third, Third,

37:10

demand that China play by

37:12

the rules by the trade and which

37:14

it's not doing. We have have

37:16

more than 10 ,000 American companies in China,

37:18

China, and yet yet... They don't operate on

37:21

a level playing field. And I've spent

37:23

a lot of time in a lot of time

37:25

and Secretary Yellen Romondo and trying to back

37:27

up American business. And the fourth arena

37:29

of competition is human rights, of where we

37:31

have to stand up. where we have to stand

37:33

rights human rights in Uyghur people who've

37:35

been jailed by the millions. the We

37:37

have to stand up for what's

37:39

happening in Tibet and Hong Kong

37:41

on the lack of religious freedom.

37:43

religious you think of the competitive

37:45

aspect of this, of I do think

37:47

we have unity in the United

37:49

States that we have to wage

37:51

this competition. competition the same time that we

37:53

compete, and I and I spend most of my

37:55

time on the competitive end, by the

37:57

way, the way. We we do have to engage the Chinese.

38:00

on issues where we have our national

38:02

interests at stake and where we can

38:04

work with them. work with So on

38:06

climate change, we have to work with

38:08

China. They're the leading carbon the leading

38:10

On fentanyl, a majority of the precursor

38:12

chemicals that make up the synthetic that

38:15

fentanyl come from China. come been working

38:17

vigorously, pushing them to do more do

38:19

more limit the flow of those precursor

38:21

chemicals. So the drug the drug cartels. on

38:23

military to military cooperation, you don't want

38:25

to have a situation where our

38:27

senior military officers are not talking are

38:30

drive down the probability to of

38:32

any kind of misunderstanding any conflict in

38:34

the South and East China Sea

38:36

or the Taiwan Strait. And we

38:38

have a situation now because a situation

38:40

now Biden and President Xi agreed and

38:42

do this where Admiral we would has

38:44

met twice over recent months with

38:46

the Southern with the Southern the PLA. the

38:48

We got the four Americans released

38:50

through quiet diplomacy. So there are

38:52

times times when you have to engage

38:54

there are there are times when you

38:57

have to compete. I would say

38:59

that of what I have done here, the time what

39:01

I have done here. the The time

39:03

I've spent is on the competitive side,

39:05

but that side is very the engagement side is

39:07

very important. be a mistake if we think that

39:09

it would be a mistake if we

39:11

said we're never going to work with would

39:13

any be because that would just be

39:15

self the for the United States and the areas that

39:17

I've talked about. about. And the final point is

39:19

this, this, we have to live in peace with China. China.

39:22

We don't want a war, and the Chinese

39:24

don't want a war, and we we

39:26

shouldn't stumble into into to

39:28

be a sufficient be a of

39:30

engagement of engagement of cabinet-level make

39:33

sure that we're being clear with each

39:35

other with each other and that we're

39:37

letting each other know each other know what

39:39

we're doing in the world and how

39:41

we're and each other each other. And I think

39:43

we succeeded. in the the last 18 months

39:45

those building those cabinet channels, the

39:47

most important of which is

39:49

President Biden and President Xi, they've

39:51

met three times in long meetings.

39:53

I've been at each of

39:55

those. each of those. Tony Blinkin and Jake

39:57

Sullivan with Longi Yellin and Gina Romondo with their

39:59

counterpart. I have served have at my level that purpose

40:01

at my level here a so you

40:04

don't want a situation where the

40:06

two countries aren't talking some there are

40:08

some voices back home and say, you

40:10

know shut down the relationship no more students,

40:12

more students no more tourists. That's

40:14

a recipe for failure China China

40:16

is strong. so China is global. And so

40:18

we have to interact, of but from

40:21

a position of strength. that. Let I think

40:23

we've done that. more me ask about one

40:25

more competitive dimension of the relationship before

40:27

getting to some of your parting thoughts.

40:29

thoughts. I I think it would have been

40:31

a surprise when you you were arriving a

40:33

few years ago the know just how

40:35

deep the Russia a relationship would become over

40:37

a few years. And you and others

40:39

in the administration have spent a lot

40:42

of time trying to persuade the their interest,

40:44

the kind of not in their they've of support

40:46

the went to the war in Ukraine. The Russian in

40:48

Ukraine is not in their interest. That has not

40:50

worked. Why have they not taken that advice? Why

40:52

have they not been persuaded by that? And how

40:54

do you assess the state and longevity of the do

40:56

-Russian relationship at this point? You, of course, worked

40:58

on Soviet affairs and Russian affairs in the Cold

41:00

War and post -Cold War, so you know the other

41:03

side of this relationship quite well as well. affairs

41:05

and the relationship between

41:08

War and post- Russia is quite strong.

41:10

you know the other as strong as

41:12

it's been, quite probably since the

41:14

1950s, when Mao was quite attached

41:16

to his relationship with Stalin. in.

41:19

Khrushchev. And I think think it's centered

41:21

in the personal relationship between President Putin

41:23

and President Xi. They've met more

41:25

than 50 times. Xi. They've They

41:28

both declare this is the most

41:30

important relationship that they have. most You

41:32

see it on the ground. that they

41:34

have. You neutral. They claim they're

41:36

neutral. Chinese say in Russia's war on

41:38

Ukraine, claim they're not neutral. They're

41:40

giving very valuable support to

41:42

the Russian leadership. And so I

41:44

think we're gonna have to

41:47

assume. assume. that for the foreseeable future,

41:49

we're dealing with two countries

41:51

that see a coincidence of

41:53

their national in in this

41:55

relationship. and it's broader than that.

41:57

Bob Gates wrote in Foreign

41:59

Affairs. article. that I have reread three or four

42:01

times a year year and a half ago.

42:03

That's not just Russia and China. It's

42:05

Iran and North Korea. North Korea in an

42:07

unholy alliance. And so And so got

42:09

to confront that and deal deal with that

42:11

from a position of strength, which

42:13

we've tried to do. It's interesting,

42:15

Dan, but over the long but will

42:18

this be an alliance that stays

42:20

together like NATO has for 75

42:22

years? I I think that's an open

42:24

question. question. If you look to the

42:26

the 2030s and 2040s, when there's generational

42:28

and leadership change just by identity just

42:30

by identity, there there are still some here

42:33

in here in China, and

42:35

I've talked to them who complained

42:37

about the unequal treaties between

42:39

the Romanovs and the Qing Empire.

42:41

and the Qing Empire. that, or the

42:43

division of Mongolia in the 1920s.

42:45

They're few and far and but

42:47

they're there. but What distinguishes distinguishes are

42:49

brand of diplomacy, which is

42:52

based on being aligned with with

42:54

with with countries as you get

42:56

NATO for 75 years, NATO you

42:58

get You get for 75 years our years

43:00

are treaty alliances with the

43:02

Philippines and Japan South South Korea know

43:05

whether don't know whether this

43:07

Russia relationship as long -lasting because

43:09

so much based on much based on

43:11

opposed to values to values national

43:13

interest. interest. But the short short this

43:15

is a very difficult proposition

43:17

for the United States and we've

43:19

been very focused on it.

43:21

China has not used its influence.

43:24

used its to dissuade the Iranians,

43:26

for instance, from from falling off their

43:28

support for the Houthi rebels who

43:30

have shut down commercial traffic in

43:32

the Red Sea. the Red Sea. China has

43:34

been on the sidelines on Lebanon

43:36

and Gaza. They've complained, they've castigated the

43:39

United States, but it was the

43:41

United States that produced the ceasefire

43:43

with our that partners the Lebanon, the

43:45

United States and the Arab in

43:47

and Israel working on the and the Arab

43:49

world, and the on the ceasefire, the in Gaza.

43:51

China is not acting like a

43:53

great power. scores political points, but

43:56

it rarely rolls up its

43:58

sleeves and spends political capital. the

44:00

way that a normal great power

44:02

would do. do. think they've been exposed

44:04

been a sense in a their relationship

44:06

with Iran and Russia Iran and Russia

44:08

had unintended consequences. know,

44:10

the Europeans tell Europeans tell Chinese that Chinese

44:12

backing of Russia is an existential issue

44:15

issue because in Europe, Europe. the the indivisibility

44:17

of Europe is an existential issue for

44:19

the Europeans and has been for

44:21

centuries. has And it's come at great and

44:23

to the Chinese. There's great, great

44:25

distrust in Europe of China because of

44:28

what's happened in Ukraine. because of And

44:30

we have told the Chinese, by the

44:32

way, the Chinese, by the way, that happened in

44:34

Ukraine is an existential issue for the

44:36

United States. We are on the continent States.

44:38

NATO on the an actor in the as of

44:41

Europe. the And the Chinese, I think, did

44:43

not see. did not see. when they they announced

44:45

that that no partnership on February 4th,

44:47

4th, 2022 Putin and Xi Jinping, that

44:49

that the reaction from the from

44:51

from Canada from Europe from Europe

44:53

would be so severe. them them

44:55

and their relationships with all of

44:57

us. of weeks, in a couple of

44:59

weeks, you'll be getting some much rest rest. Trump

45:02

Trump will be back in office watched the

45:05

watched the Chinese own out their own

45:07

policy for Trump that debate look like? And

45:09

look like? And how do you think they

45:11

will react to the next Trump administration? Of

45:13

course, we're following that debate. You a lot

45:15

of Chinese. I I lot of Chinese lot it.

45:17

You read what they're saying in their

45:19

press. I think saying in their couple think of thought.

45:22

One school of thought here is that

45:24

this might be is that advantageous, this change for

45:26

the Chinese that they've dealt with President

45:28

Trump with Another school of thought is that

45:30

it's gonna weaken China. that it's going just have

45:32

to see how it plays out. have to see

45:34

I have not commented about what President Trump

45:37

might do. I don't think it's think me

45:39

to do that. We need to give

45:41

him time to come into power into

45:43

his government and put his people in

45:45

place. I don't want to be unfair

45:47

to them. don't want I should tell you

45:49

that I have never met Senator never met Senator

45:51

who is who is Trump's nominee to replace

45:53

me replace me as Ambassador to China, but I heard

45:55

about his appointment, I reached out to

45:57

him out to him I said publicly in social

45:59

media. media. that I wish him him well. I'm going to give

46:01

going to give him every support that

46:03

I can. can, because his success success will be the

46:05

success of our country. And this gets

46:08

back to one of the things you asked

46:10

me about, things and you're right to do

46:12

it. We do have a rough rough consensus

46:14

about what we should be doing doing to

46:16

And I don't want to see that broken.

46:18

to see So I will do everything I

46:20

can to help. I can to help when

46:22

he becomes when he becomes Senate willing Perdue because obviously

46:24

There are differences for sure between the

46:26

Biden administration and the future Trump Trump

46:28

there are a lot of issues where

46:31

we would obviously want the United States

46:33

to go forward on a unified basis go

46:35

so I wish him well in all

46:37

of this well in all of this. is there

46:39

anything you would tell him about what

46:41

you've learned in your time in Beijing in

46:43

you wish you'd known when he started

46:46

you'd known the relationship and how it works

46:48

and how it works? Well, I'll probably leave that

46:50

to my private private with him. I would

46:52

say this, I Dan, I came to this

46:55

job job. years ago. I was confirmed a little

46:57

over three years ago with a very tough

46:59

-minded view of China. view know, all

47:01

of us have lived through what happened

47:03

when China went into the South and

47:05

East China South in 2014, 15, and 16 and

47:07

and 16 and built up those illegal

47:09

bases and claim land that wasn't theirs,

47:11

et cetera. And all of us lived

47:13

through the China shock. the China where we

47:15

lost a significant number of

47:17

American manufacturing jobs. So I was

47:19

prepared to be hard So I was

47:21

prepared but I leave China focused

47:23

on the competition. competition. China is

47:25

is out to overtake us in

47:27

total power in the Indo let that we

47:30

cannot let that happen. in we've talked

47:32

in this interview about all the

47:34

different elements of that competition, but I

47:36

would also say to and my

47:38

successors are people who are interested in

47:40

this issue, we're going to focus on

47:42

competition we have to, but we have

47:44

to also reserve some room. for engaging

47:46

China engaging we've issues and we've

47:48

covered them military to military climate

47:50

change where it's in our

47:52

interest to cooperate with with them.

47:54

we need a stable relationship

47:56

with with The two times when

47:59

I felt relation. was veering out

48:01

of control. were

48:03

the months following the visit of

48:05

Speaker Pelosi, which we supported

48:07

to Taiwan August 2022 with a

48:09

Chinese shutdown, eight avenues of

48:11

communication with us on very important

48:13

issues, and then the balloon

48:16

crisis of early February 2023. that

48:19

strange balloon that floated across our

48:21

territory for five days. And in

48:23

an Orwellian twist, when President Biden

48:25

shot down the balloon, as he

48:27

rightfully should have, the Chinese then

48:29

blamed the United States for the

48:31

balloon. They then shut down communication

48:33

again. And I thought that was

48:35

a dangerous period. If two supremely

48:37

powerful countries are not talking in

48:39

any meaningful way, nothing good comes

48:41

from that. So I think what

48:43

needs to temper some of the

48:45

discussion in the United States is,

48:47

yes, we should be competitive and we

48:49

certainly have been, but you also

48:51

have to engage and you have

48:53

to keep the lines open because

48:56

we are powerful countries and you

48:58

don't want that power to be

49:00

uncontrolled. And you want us to

49:02

have the ability to respond to

49:04

an accident if two ships collide

49:06

or if two planes collide and

49:08

those things have happened and you

49:10

want adults, senior military officers and

49:12

diplomats to be able to diffuse

49:15

that crisis. And

49:17

we're going to compete with China. But

49:19

again, we have to live with

49:21

China in peace. And so that's where

49:23

diplomacy comes in. And And that's

49:25

why It's not a 50

49:27

-50 balance. I think it's an

49:29

80 -20 balance of 80 %

49:31

competition, 20 % engagement, but there

49:34

has to be that balance. And

49:36

I think that is drawing on the lessons

49:38

of the old Cold War. Eisenhower

49:41

was not afraid to talk to Khrushchev. Ronald

49:44

Reagan was not afraid to talk to

49:46

Mikhail Gorbachev and in doing so. That

49:49

actually helped us to be successful in

49:51

the old Cold War. That's, these are very

49:53

different situations because China is so much

49:55

more powerful than the Soviet Union ever was,

49:57

but I think there's some lessons. from... the

49:59

old War, War, which I remember from my

50:01

time as a young diplomat that we can

50:03

take advantage of. we can take thank

50:05

you for doing this in your final days as doing

50:08

Thank you for all you've done these last few

50:10

years. We'll look forward to doing this

50:12

again, I hope, when you're last few have had some

50:14

time to rest. And I'm sure there's much for

50:16

you to write in foreign affairs as well. back

50:18

you, Dan. It's always a pleasure had thank you very

50:20

much for this interview. sure there's much for

50:22

you to write in foreign affairs as

50:24

well. Thank you, Dan. It's always a

50:26

pleasure. And thank you you for listening. You

50:29

can find the articles that we

50:31

discussed on today's show on today's show at.com. The

50:33

Foreign Affairs Interview is produced

50:36

by Julia Fleming Fleming Dresser, Molly Ben

50:38

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