0:00

I'm Dan Kurtz-Feland and this

0:02

is the Foreign Affairs interview.

0:04

A year and a half from now we could

0:06

have a Latin America that

0:08

is significantly more aligned with

0:10

President Trump than it is

0:12

today. For decades, president after

0:14

president, it has been a trope

0:16

of foreign policy commentary in the

0:18

United States that Washington does not

0:20

pay enough attention to its own

0:23

hemisphere. But the Trump administration seems

0:25

to be bucking this trend, though

0:27

not exactly in the way those

0:29

complaining about neglect might have wanted.

0:31

Trump's campaign spent a lot of

0:33

time focusing on immigration and fentanyl

0:35

coming from Latin America, and in

0:37

the early months of his administration,

0:39

he's focused to a surprising degree,

0:41

not just on Mexico and Central

0:43

America, but also on the Panama Canal

0:46

and Canada in Greenland. There has even

0:48

been talk of America's sphere of influence

0:50

in the Western Hemisphere. Brian Winter, one

0:52

of the best chroniclers and analysts of

0:55

Latin America and the longtime editor of

0:57

America's quarterly, was one of the few

0:59

observers who anticipated this focus, as he

1:01

did in an essay for foreign affairs

1:04

a few weeks before the inauguration. As

1:06

Trump unleashes a whirlwind of confrontational

1:08

policies across the globe, his sweeping

1:11

tariffs just being the latest example,

1:13

Latin American leaders are developing their

1:15

own approach to this challenge. And

1:17

in winter's view, they may be

1:19

surprisingly well positioned. to weather the

1:22

storm better than their counterparts almost

1:24

anywhere else. I spoke with him

1:26

on Tuesday, April 8th, about how

1:28

leaders everywhere from Argentina and Brazil

1:31

to Mexico and Central America are

1:33

navigating this new reality, and also

1:35

on whether Latin America's long tradition

1:37

of strongman leadership has now come

1:40

to the United States. Before we

1:42

begin, I want to share some

1:44

good news about this podcast. As

1:46

of today, we will be releasing

1:48

new episodes of the Foreign Affairs

1:50

interview weekly rather than every other

1:52

week. Every Thursday, listen to our

1:54

latest conversation with a leading thinker

1:56

or policymaker wherever you get your

1:58

podcasts. Brian,

2:05

good to see you. Thank you for joining

2:07

me in this pretty astonishing moment for all

2:09

of us. It's been a wild ride. It

2:12

sure has. We ran dozens of pieces in

2:14

foreign affairs in the months ahead of the

2:16

election and in the transition, trying to anticipate

2:19

key dimensions of Trump's second term foreign policy.

2:21

But I really can't think of one that

2:23

has proved more oppression than the one you

2:25

wrote, which is all the more notable, because

2:28

I think it struck most readers as a

2:30

bit surprising and counterintuitive at the time. It

2:32

was called Latin America is about to become

2:35

a priority for US foreign policy. We will

2:37

of course get to that piece and why

2:39

you foresaw what you foresaw and what we've

2:41

seen since. But before we get sucked into

2:43

the Trump vortex, I want to step back

2:45

a bit and consider Latin America's trajectory on

2:48

a longer timeline. You've written a slew of

2:50

great essays for foreign affairs over the past

2:52

few years. in reading back through them last

2:54

night with great pleasure, I was struck by

2:56

an observation you made in a 2022 piece

2:58

about Lula's return to the presidency in Brazil.

3:01

The argument focused on the lack of kind

3:03

of new ideas and new vision in a

3:05

region that was struggling at the time,

3:07

as you put it. There was a

3:09

preference for nostalgia and shop-worn ideas instead

3:11

of fresh leadership and forward-looking policy. And

3:14

it was fundamentally about the kind of

3:16

disappointing trajectory of a region that 15

3:18

years ago seemed like it really was

3:20

entering a kind of confident new era

3:22

of growth on its own terms of

3:24

a commitment to democracy, of new geopolitical

3:27

relevance, of kind of new solutions to

3:29

all problems of inequality and violence. It

3:31

was really supposed to be Latin America's

3:33

moment and instead so much of the

3:35

region. obviously generalizing across a lot of

3:37

different countries, some of which buck this trend,

3:40

but much of the region certainly fell back

3:42

into stagnation and violence and social unrest and

3:44

political friction. As you look at that arc

3:46

of recent history, what did the hopes get

3:48

wrong, what happened, and where did that leave

3:51

the region before Trump's return if we kind

3:53

of step back about it? Well, Dan, I'm

3:55

happy to tell you that things have been

3:57

looking up at least a little bit lately.

3:59

has kicked into a slightly higher

4:02

gear of economic growth. It has

4:04

recovered more quickly than any of

4:06

us expected from the disruption of

4:09

the pandemic, remembering that Latin America

4:11

was hit particularly hard during those

4:13

years, not just in terms of

4:15

deaths per capita, but also in

4:18

terms of economic damage, only the

4:20

Eurozone shrank more in terms of

4:22

its economy during those years. And

4:25

Latin America has proved more resilient

4:27

than many people believed, and there

4:29

were specific reasons for this. I

4:31

mean, the region is a source

4:34

of the minerals and energy resources

4:36

that the world needs, key to

4:38

the climate transition, and so on.

4:40

So that said, the challenges are

4:42

still there, particularly when it comes

4:44

to organized crime, which is not

4:47

a new issue. when it comes

4:49

to Latin America, but it's one

4:51

that has gotten worse in many

4:53

ways over the last 10, 15

4:55

years, primarily because of an expansion

4:58

in the cocaine trade. The amount

5:00

of cocaine being produced in the

5:02

world has more than doubled in

5:04

the last 15 years according to

5:07

the United Nations. That has filled

5:09

the pockets of cartels. It has

5:11

allowed them to diversify and other

5:13

areas like illegal gold mining, extortion,

5:16

cargo theft, other things. That's one

5:18

reason, for example, why we're seeing

5:20

the rise of politicians like Naibulkele,

5:22

who are really dedicated to taking

5:25

on this problem head on. So,

5:27

you know, in some ways. The

5:29

region has made some progress, has shown

5:31

some resilience, but yeah, and others, big

5:33

challenges as well. I'm sure just a

5:35

linger on your point about cocaine. I'm

5:37

struck that I think most people would

5:40

assume fentanyl would be the bigger source

5:42

of instability and corruption because it's what

5:44

we focus on here. That's not in

5:46

fact the case when you look at

5:48

the region as a whole. Look fentanyl

5:50

is bad too, okay, but cocaine is

5:52

unparalleled as a revenue producer and part

5:54

of what has changed in the last

5:56

10-15 years is not just the sheer

5:59

volume that's being produced, but where

6:01

it's going. 25 years ago,

6:03

when I first started following the

6:05

region as a journalist, it was a

6:07

truism that most of the cocaine

6:09

flowed north to the United States and

6:11

to Europe. Today, Latin American countries

6:13

themselves have become a big consumer market.

6:15

We've seen a lot of growth

6:17

in Asia as well. And part of

6:19

the reason listeners to this podcast

6:21

may remember these terrifying images that came

6:23

out of a television station in

6:25

Ecuador last year, last January. And part

6:27

of the reason those were such

6:29

a shock was because Ecuador was one

6:31

of these countries in the region that

6:33

had never had these kinds of problems

6:35

before, at least not on that scale.

6:37

But because of the way these shipping

6:39

routes have changed, because of how the

6:42

map of demand has shifted, Ecuador is

6:44

now sadly the country in South America

6:46

with the highest homicide rate. And so,

6:48

you know, I know that sometimes to

6:50

outside people, it can seem like, oh,

6:52

this is just part of the kind

6:54

of the background in Latin America. This

6:56

is something that's always happening. But there

6:58

have actually been major changes over the

7:00

last 10, 15 years. So you mentioned President

7:02

Bukele of El Salvador. Since you wrote

7:04

that piece in 2022, two leaders who

7:06

do seem new in some sense, do

7:08

seem to have kind of in certain

7:10

ways new ideas about how to handle

7:12

problems in their countries have emerged on

7:14

the scene and become, you know, kind

7:17

of dominant in some ways in how

7:19

we look at the region. One of

7:21

those is Bukele in El Salvador, who

7:23

has a very hard line approach to

7:25

security, very much cheered on by the

7:27

Trump administration. And then also Javier Malay

7:29

in Argentina, who is, to put it

7:31

mildly, a very idiosyncratic libertarian whose aggressive

7:33

cost cutting has been

7:35

cheered on by Elon Musk

7:37

in the Doge crowd.

7:39

The chainsaw. Exactly. And also,

7:41

you know, rails against

7:43

gender ideology and woke ideology

7:46

and all of that.

7:48

I'm curious how you see

7:50

these two leaders, why

7:52

they rose to prominence and

7:54

whether they are reshaping

7:56

their region and its politics

7:58

again in the moment

8:00

leading up to Trump? Well,

8:02

in recent years, we've

8:05

seen an ascendant right wing

8:07

in Latin America, as

8:09

we have in so many

8:11

other... places, including Europe and indeed the United

8:13

States. And there's a temptation sometimes to look at

8:15

these countries as almost like local franchisees of the

8:17

Trump movement, of the MAGA movement. And I think

8:19

that there are some areas where, for example, Javier

8:22

Mille thinks very differently about tariffs than Donald Trump

8:24

does. But there are a lot of things that

8:26

unite, not just Mille and Buchale, who you mentioned,

8:28

but leaders like Rodrigo Chavez in Costa Rica, like

8:30

Santiago Peña in Paraguay. There's a

8:33

broad and growing conservative movement in

8:35

Latin America that wants to take

8:37

a tough line on security, reflecting

8:40

general populations that are just

8:42

fed up with living in

8:44

fear that have seen what

8:46

has happened in El Salvador,

8:48

which in some ways is

8:51

problematic when it comes to

8:53

what it means for independent

8:55

institutions and things like due

8:57

process. But lots of people

8:59

in Latin America see the

9:02

results. which is in El Salvador

9:04

that has been completely transformed with

9:06

a homicide rate that is down

9:08

more than 80% and by some

9:10

measures, is now the safest country

9:13

in the entire Western Hemisphere in

9:15

terms of at least the homicide

9:17

rate. And so I think people

9:19

are grasping at that kind of

9:21

solution, even when in many cases

9:24

they don't want a carbon copy,

9:26

they don't want the exact same

9:28

thing for themselves. There's also in

9:30

some countries a real passion for

9:32

this idea of a smaller state. Latin

9:35

America is a big and diverse region

9:37

as you know Dan more than 20

9:39

countries. Some countries have quite large states

9:42

like Argentina. like Brazil in terms of

9:44

how much they collect in terms of

9:46

their GDP, whereas other countries have kind

9:49

of smaller states like Mexico. And so

9:51

maybe a doge for Mexico is not

9:53

a great idea. Maybe they need to

9:56

go in the other direction. But I

9:58

think that these ideas of becoming

10:00

more efficient, of having less taxes,

10:02

appeal in Latin America in part

10:04

because it's also a region where

10:06

the gig economy, the independent worker,

10:09

has gained a lot of cultural

10:11

currency over the last couple years.

10:13

It's changed so much from when

10:15

I first started following the region,

10:17

when labor unions were sort of

10:19

the core of those societies. Today...

10:21

The unions don't resonate as much.

10:23

People want to be able to

10:25

drive an Uber to start their

10:28

own business. And that's another reason

10:30

why these right wing messages have

10:32

really caught on in unexpected ways.

10:34

The other. global dynamic that seemed

10:36

to present a huge opportunity to

10:38

the region, again going back before

10:40

the last couple weeks, was there's

10:42

kind of shift in supply chains

10:45

in what is often called friendshoring.

10:47

This desire to bring supply chains

10:49

closer to home, to T-risk away

10:51

from China, all of that seemed

10:53

to present an opportunity economically, especially

10:55

to Mexico and Central America, but

10:57

also to other parts of the

10:59

region. Did you see ways in

11:02

which that opportunity was being taken

11:04

advantage of by economies? Was that

11:06

a kind of positive dynamic economically?

11:08

And again, the years before these

11:10

tariffs that we've seen in the

11:12

last week? Yeah, so look, this

11:14

whole question of global supply chains

11:16

is kind of shifting under our

11:18

ground as we record this, right?

11:21

Who knows what it'll be like

11:23

tomorrow? I will say that with

11:25

this quote unquote liberation day, the

11:27

tariffs that Donald Trump announced. were

11:29

on balance not as bad for

11:31

most Latin American countries as people

11:33

had expected. I mean, let's be

11:35

clear, there are concerns all over

11:38

the region about the possibility of

11:40

a global recession, big disruptions because

11:42

of what President Trump announced. But

11:44

actually, most big Latin American countries

11:46

ended up with the minimum 10%

11:48

tariff. It was funny, I thought,

11:50

when I first saw the numbers,

11:52

I thought, well, this reflects that

11:55

we've got people in the White

11:57

House who understand that these Latin

11:59

American nations are worthy partners, especially

12:01

if you want to reduce your

12:03

dependence on China. believe that you

12:05

still need lower cost labor to

12:07

be part of your supply chain.

12:09

It turns out that that was

12:11

not kind of how this formula

12:14

was invented. We now know that

12:16

the reason that many Latin American

12:18

nations or most Latin American nations

12:20

ended up with the minimum tariff

12:22

is because most of them, with

12:24

the exception of Mexico, the United

12:26

States has a trade surplus with

12:28

these countries. So that's why. But

12:31

in practice, if you're building up

12:33

big tariff walls around... not only

12:35

China, but countries like Vietnam, Thailand,

12:37

and Cambodia, and you have smaller

12:39

tariffs for Colombia, Guatemala, El Salvador,

12:41

the Dominican Republic, that's an opportunity

12:43

for the countries of the Americas.

12:45

That's an opportunity for nearshoring, and

12:48

it's one that people have been

12:50

talking about for years. I know

12:52

it's one that people in the

12:54

Trump administration also see, you know,

12:56

some utility in, and so we'll

12:58

see whether it comes to fruition

13:00

or not. And Mexico despite its

13:02

trade deficit was exempted from that

13:04

round of tariffs. It had obviously

13:07

been hit before, but there were

13:09

not new tariffs left on last

13:11

week. That's right. And you know,

13:13

the Mexicans were also breathing a

13:15

sigh of relief. It's been widely

13:17

commented that Mexico's President Claudia Shanebaum

13:19

has put on a master class

13:21

in how to negotiate with President

13:24

Trump in a way that is

13:26

both respectful, that attends to the

13:28

needs of the United States when

13:30

it comes to controlling illegal immigration

13:32

and controlling fentanyl, but also firm.

13:34

folded in the way that some

13:36

other leaders around the world have.

13:38

And so at least so far

13:41

as we record this, Mexico has

13:43

not faced the disaster that some

13:45

people feared it would. So we've

13:47

already been sucked into the Trump

13:49

vortex. This might be the best

13:51

effort. So let's give in to

13:53

it. And let's turn to the

13:55

piece he wrote a little bit

13:57

before he was inaugurated for his

14:00

second term. You, of course, noted

14:02

that Latin Americans had complained for

14:04

decades about American neglect. And every

14:06

single presidential administration has essentially been

14:08

charged with not paying enough attention

14:10

to the. I think you even

14:12

dug up a foreign affairs essay

14:14

from 1973 that was lodging that

14:17

complaint, and it's been true since.

14:19

Most people in the foreign policy

14:21

world were fixated on what Trump's

14:23

policy toward China or Ukraine or

14:25

the Middle East might turn out

14:27

to be. You recognized what many

14:29

of us missed, that Latin America

14:31

would turn out to be really

14:34

one of his central priorities, something

14:36

that he would talk about. more

14:38

than many of those other kind

14:40

of headline-grabbing geographies in his early

14:42

days, whether it was the Panama

14:44

Canal or Mexico, also other Western

14:46

Hemisphere countries like Canada and Greenland.

14:48

What were you seeing that most

14:50

of us missed in that run

14:53

up to the inauguration? Well, I

14:55

think, look, I think that President

14:57

Trump was elected for several reasons,

14:59

among them to reduce inflation, but

15:01

also to reduce illegal immigration. and

15:03

reduce the flow of drugs in

15:05

the United States, and particularly on

15:07

those second and third priorities, Latin

15:10

America is absolutely key. And he

15:12

then began staffing his administration with

15:14

people who know Latin America exceptionally

15:16

well. There's the case of Marco

15:18

Rubio, with whom most people are

15:20

familiar. He is the son of

15:22

Cuban immigrants. He speaks perfect Spanish.

15:24

He's also done the work. He's

15:27

traveled the region. He knows who

15:29

the leaders are. He's, as I

15:31

wrote in that foreign affairs piece,

15:33

he's probably the best connected official

15:35

on Latin America at such a

15:37

high level since Nelson Rockefeller in

15:39

the 1970s when he was Gerald

15:41

Ford's vice president. But it's not

15:43

just Marco Rubio. Secretary Rubio's number

15:46

two at the State Department is

15:48

Christopher Landau. who was Donald Trump's

15:50

ambassador to Mexico during his first

15:52

term is the son of a

15:54

long-time, widely admired U.S. diplomat, went

15:56

to high school in Asuncion Paraguay

15:58

and speaks Spanish that I openly

16:00

envy as someone who did not

16:03

grow up in the region. You

16:05

also have people across the government

16:07

who come from South... with all

16:09

of the day-to-day exposure to Latin

16:11

America and Latin American policy priorities

16:13

that that implies. So this is

16:15

an administration that knows Latin America,

16:17

that sees it as a priority

16:19

not just in foreign policy, but

16:22

in domestic policy. That said, Dan,

16:24

I mean, none of us have

16:26

a crystal ball. I think it's

16:28

still sitting here really not clear.

16:30

whether Mexico and other countries will

16:32

over time be treated more as

16:34

partners, as allies, or as problems.

16:36

And I think that reflects some

16:39

ideological splits within the administration itself.

16:41

And so I'm watching just as

16:43

carefully as everybody else trying to

16:45

figure out where this goes from

16:47

here. much of the debate tends

16:49

to focus on policy in the

16:51

US and deportations and asylum and

16:53

temporary protected status and all of

16:56

the political and social effects of

16:58

those policy moves here. As you

17:00

look at the region, though, what

17:02

was driving the levels of migration

17:04

that we'd seen in the last

17:06

few years? That could be such

17:08

a political liability for the Biden

17:10

administration. Well, I've already spoken at

17:12

some length about the growth in

17:15

organized crime, but there is also

17:17

some specific countries in at the

17:19

top of the list as Venezuela.

17:21

I mean, we've seen an exodus

17:23

of more than 8 million people

17:25

from Venezuela over the last decade.

17:27

It's one of the biggest exodus

17:29

of people anywhere in the world

17:32

since World War II. Most of

17:34

them have gone elsewhere in South

17:36

America, but hundreds of thousands came

17:38

here to the United States. That

17:40

said, it's not just Venezuela. Cuba

17:42

has also hemorrhaged people over the

17:44

last five years. This is another

17:46

issue where people kind of can

17:49

almost tune out and think, oh

17:51

yeah, there have always been problems

17:53

in Cuba. Well, consider that about...

17:55

An estimated 20% of the Cuban

17:57

population is left in the last

17:59

five years. That's an extraordinary figure.

18:01

We've seen similar... dynamic from Haiti,

18:03

similar dynamic from some of the

18:05

Central American countries. And you know,

18:08

people migrate for reasons that are

18:10

sometimes complex. Sometimes it's not just

18:12

conditions on the ground, but just

18:14

the hope of a better life,

18:16

the fact that they already have

18:18

family members in the United States.

18:20

perhaps over the last 40 years

18:22

or so of high migration levels.

18:25

We've established a kind of critical

18:27

mass where everybody in certain countries,

18:29

everybody has a cousin or a

18:31

family member or an aunt in

18:33

the US, and they hear about

18:35

how good it is. That era

18:37

now seems to have drawn to

18:39

a close. And the implications for

18:42

Latin America are huge, not only

18:44

in terms of what it means

18:46

for remittances, but potentially in terms

18:48

of people coming back, because they

18:50

either can't get in. through the

18:52

southwest border anymore, or because they're

18:54

facing pressure to deport. I have

18:56

many friends who are part of

18:58

the Latin American community here in

19:01

New York City, and I have

19:03

heard many cases of people in

19:05

the last weeks and months deciding

19:07

to just leave. And this includes

19:09

people who are part of the

19:11

working class, and it also includes

19:13

people who are part of the

19:15

professional class, different dynamics in both

19:18

cases, but I think we're just

19:20

starting to understand what the implications

19:22

of that for the region will

19:24

be as well. On its own

19:26

terms, Trump's immigration policy does seem

19:28

to be working. We can argue

19:30

whether it has the right objectives

19:32

and whether the tradeoffs are worth

19:35

it, but it does seem to

19:37

be... stopping the flows of the

19:39

Southwestern border and leading to this

19:41

exodus, which you and I would

19:43

probably see as a bad thing

19:45

for United States competitiveness and vitality,

19:47

but Trump obviously say it differently.

19:49

As you see the region trying

19:51

to respond initially to both the

19:54

pressures of people returning and also

19:56

the moves that Trump has made

19:58

to put pressure on them, how

20:00

do you assess the different responses

20:02

in this policy area specifically? Well,

20:04

I think there's been concern from

20:06

a lot of leaders around Latin

20:08

America that the deportations or the

20:11

return of people happens in a

20:13

dignified and humane... main way. And

20:15

we saw this huge episode back

20:17

in January when Columbia's President Gustavo

20:19

Petro ordered the halt of a

20:21

plane that was mid-flight, a deportation

20:23

flight that was bound for Columbia,

20:25

based apparently on conditions reports that

20:28

he had seen about how resilient

20:30

deportees were actually put on a

20:32

military plane, not allowed access to

20:34

the bathroom, and so on. And

20:36

that appears to have been the

20:38

trigger that prompted President Petro to

20:40

order that plane. to turn around.

20:42

This unleashed a huge short-lived crisis

20:44

in which President Trump essentially threatened

20:47

Colombia with everything under the sun,

20:49

including financial sanctions that would have

20:51

ground the Colombian economy to a

20:53

halt. President Petrow and his government

20:55

immediately backed down, due in part

20:57

to an effort by the Colombian

20:59

business community as well as all

21:01

parts of the Colombian political spectrum,

21:04

to find a way out. And

21:06

I mentioned this because it was

21:08

important not just for Colombia, but

21:10

for countries all over Latin America

21:12

and perhaps the world. They saw

21:14

that this was an issue on

21:16

which President Trump would not be

21:18

deterred. And you know, you look

21:21

at the polling in the United

21:23

States on approval of President Trump's

21:25

different policies. And in his management

21:27

of the economy, for example, even

21:29

before all these tariffs, you had

21:31

more people disapproving than approving. But

21:33

on President Trump's handling of migration,

21:35

this is where he gets some

21:37

of his best marks from the

21:40

U.S. public. Point being, he seems

21:42

to have a lot of domestic

21:44

support. for this. And I think

21:46

that as a result of that

21:48

episode and their reading of the

21:50

kind of the political tea leaves,

21:52

I think you have Latin American

21:54

governments on left, center and right,

21:57

pro-U.S, anti-U.S, all now doing their

21:59

level best to accommodate the United

22:01

States when it comes to this

22:03

issue of migration. That includes the

22:05

Mexican government in terms of how

22:07

they have deployed. 10,000 troops, extra

22:09

troops of their National Guard to

22:11

the border to try to control

22:14

the movement of people from Central

22:16

America and elsewhere. But really countries

22:18

all over the region have determined

22:20

that they're going to not stand

22:22

in the way, because nobody wants

22:24

to be behind the eight ball

22:26

in the same way that President

22:28

Petrow briefly was. The other thing

22:30

that seemed quite surprising early on

22:33

the administration was the focus on

22:35

the Panama Canal. Did that surprise

22:37

you as it did the rest

22:39

of us? And what did you

22:41

see driving both the Trump obsession

22:43

with it and the Panamanian response?

22:45

Yeah, I mean, it's funny. I

22:47

spoke to so many people, Dan,

22:50

for that article that I wrote

22:52

for foreign affairs, including people who

22:54

had been part of the first

22:56

Trump administration, trying to figure out

22:58

what to anticipate for policy toward

23:00

Latin America. The phrase Panama Canal

23:02

never came up. And look, I

23:04

think that this different perhaps from

23:07

tariffs and migration, this new expansionism

23:09

that President Trump outlined in his

23:11

inaugural address, was not really part

23:13

of his campaign, or if it

23:15

was, I certainly missed it. And

23:17

so you've seen surprise from the

23:19

Danes, from the Canadians. and certainly

23:21

from the Panamanians. I, through coincidence,

23:23

I was actually in Panama the

23:26

day after President Trump's inaugural address

23:28

when he said explicitly that he

23:30

wanted to take the canal back.

23:32

And honestly, the reaction that most

23:34

people had was just confusion. Because

23:36

this was a case where their

23:38

president, President Molino, is a strong

23:40

ally of the United States. This

23:43

is a right-wing. figure who had

23:45

previously been foreign minister and who

23:47

saw himself as a fellow traveler

23:49

who took office even before Trump

23:51

was elected, vowing to crack down

23:53

on migration bound for the United

23:55

States through the Darien Gap, which

23:57

is in Panama. So, you know,

23:59

this is one example. where people

24:02

in the region have been caught

24:04

off guard. And even today as

24:06

we record this, President Trump continues

24:08

to say that he wants the

24:10

canal back. And the reaction that

24:12

you hear from people in Panama

24:14

as well as elsewhere around the

24:16

region is just disbelief. They say,

24:19

we don't quite understand what this

24:21

is about. We'll be back after

24:23

a short break. Did

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24:53

today. As you look

24:55

at, again, with apologies for kind

24:57

of generalizing across a complicated and

24:59

large region, as you look at

25:01

the kind of different sets of

25:03

responses, how do you make sense

25:05

of kind of the different options

25:07

that leaders are choosing the kind

25:10

of different camps when it comes

25:12

to a relationship with Trump? Yeah,

25:14

I have broken these countries down

25:16

into three main groups. The first

25:18

one is fellow travelers. As I

25:20

explained, President Trump has many leaders

25:22

in the region who are fully

25:24

on board with what he's doing

25:26

who see him as a partner

25:28

on issues like security, but also

25:30

just as a part of a

25:32

fraternity that they also want to

25:34

be a part of. This group

25:36

includes President Mille and Argentina, President

25:38

Gule, and El Salvador, but also

25:40

leaders like the Bolsonaro family in

25:42

Brazil, figures on the Colombian right,

25:44

on the Chilean right. This group

25:46

is probably bigger than most people

25:48

outside Latin America expect it to

25:50

be. They think, well, you know,

25:52

they think back to 2015 when

25:54

President Trump began his campaign talking

25:56

about you know how Mexico is

25:58

not sending its best people and

26:00

perhaps it's hard for them to

26:02

believe that Trump would have so

26:04

much political support in Latin America

26:06

but he really does and you

26:08

know for these leaders they might

26:10

not be happy about the tariffs

26:12

but they see power not just

26:14

in terms of who the export

26:16

to but how many likes they

26:18

get on social media how much

26:20

engagement they get and this is

26:23

where a photo with Trump or

26:25

a video with Trump can just

26:27

turbocharge them. And I would add

26:29

for this first group that the

26:31

upcoming electoral calendar in Latin America

26:33

favors this group. If we look

26:35

at Daniel Noboa, who's currently the

26:37

president of Ecuador, may lose his

26:39

upcoming election, it's not clear. But

26:41

if you look at the elections

26:43

in Chile later this year, the

26:45

right is strongly favored. You look

26:47

into 2026 at Columbia and Brazil.

26:49

It's easy to imagine. conservative Trump

26:51

aligned leaders winning in both those

26:53

cases. So a year and a

26:55

half from now we could have

26:57

a Latin America that is significantly

26:59

more aligned with President Trump than

27:01

it is today. The second group

27:03

is the silent skeptics. These are

27:05

leaders like Lula in Brazil, Gabriel

27:07

Borich in Chile, President Petro, who

27:09

I mentioned in Colombia, who, you

27:11

know, have Let's say existential doubts

27:13

about what President Trump is doing,

27:15

but note the word silent. Because

27:17

of this episode with President Petro

27:19

that happened back in January, everyone

27:21

is doing their level best to

27:23

stay off President Trump's radar. These

27:25

are leaders that in many cases

27:27

are trying to diversify. their foreign

27:29

relationships when it comes to investment

27:31

in trade. I would note that

27:33

President Lula was just on an

27:36

Asia trip where he went to

27:38

Vietnam and Japan. But I would

27:40

also note that on that trip

27:42

he did not visit China as

27:44

he might have done if he

27:46

was trying to really send a

27:48

message or provoke the United States.

27:50

And I believe that it's possible

27:52

at least that China was left.

27:54

off that agenda because again Brazil

27:56

does not want to appear too

27:58

prominently on the U.S. radar. Other

28:00

leaders have done this too. President

28:02

Boreditch of Chile was just in

28:04

India, for example. And the Mercosur,

28:06

which is the South American trade

28:08

block, is advancing once again on

28:10

its long-delayed trade agreement with the

28:12

European Union, which many of us

28:14

thought was dead in the water,

28:16

but now with everything that's been

28:18

happening on the tariff front suddenly

28:20

looks a lot more attractive to

28:22

people on both sides, to the

28:24

Europeans and to the South Americans.

28:26

And then the third group Dan

28:28

is kind of a worried middle.

28:30

in Latin America as also where

28:32

in the world this middle is

28:34

not the dominant group, it's smaller

28:36

than it used to be, but

28:38

these are center left, center right

28:40

leaders who they're on board with

28:42

some of the things that President

28:44

Trump is doing, but concerned about

28:47

the impact on their economies and

28:49

so on. But it sounds like

28:51

everyone has learned from the Petro

28:53

episode early in the administration that

28:55

you, there's no benefit, there's no

28:57

way to kind of stick your

28:59

neck out and challenge Trump. Yeah,

29:01

nobody wants to directly confront this

29:03

government right now. And, you know,

29:05

it's hard to blame them. So

29:07

a group you didn't mention is

29:09

the kind of rogue actors in

29:11

terms of U.S. foreign policy at

29:13

least. Marker Rubio is someone you

29:15

would expect to be spending a

29:17

lot of time on Venezuela and

29:19

Cuba and Nicaragua. That has not

29:21

been a particularly prominent part of

29:23

US policy thus far. Do you

29:25

see a strategy emerging? Is there

29:27

anything you kind of can discern

29:29

in what we've seen thus far

29:31

when it comes to how the

29:33

administration will treat those cases? I

29:35

wrote in the foreign affairs piece

29:37

back in December, Dan, that Venezuela

29:39

policy was a bit of a

29:41

mystery. That still seems to be

29:43

the case. All the contours are

29:45

taking shape. Look, Venezuela is a

29:47

humanitarian tragedy. It's also a very

29:49

difficult policy problem. We have seen

29:51

just in the last eight years,

29:53

we've seen US policy go from

29:55

maximum pressure to some kind of

29:57

negotiations, and now maybe we're headed

30:00

back to maximum pressure again. But

30:02

I think, you know, despite the

30:04

best, I think good faith efforts

30:06

of people. in both the first

30:08

Trump administration and the Biden administration,

30:10

the Maduro dictatorship is still in

30:12

power, even after the election last

30:14

July, even after the Maduro regime

30:16

stole that election, denied the result

30:18

that, you know, later filtered out

30:20

to the world. You know, no

30:22

government is a monolith. The Trump

30:24

government is no exception. I think

30:26

you have different groups within the

30:28

Trump administration who want different things.

30:30

There is a group that believes

30:32

that Venezuela, this is a dictatorship

30:34

that needs to be toppled and

30:36

favor things like sanctions to accomplish

30:38

that goal. But then you have

30:40

another group that believes that actually

30:42

the top priority is immigration. And

30:44

if you pass new sanctions on

30:46

Venezuela, all that will do in

30:48

their view is lead to another

30:50

exodus of people, many of whom

30:52

will inevitably show up at the

30:54

U.S. southwest border. And so I

30:56

think what we're seeing, at least

30:58

from the outside in, is an

31:00

administration that's trying to figure out

31:02

how they reconcile those different priorities.

31:04

Let's linger on China for a

31:06

moment. I was fascinated by the

31:08

point you made about leaders going

31:10

to Asia and skipping China, which

31:13

a few years ago, I imagine,

31:15

would have been a kind of

31:17

automatic stop for them. You wrote

31:19

a piece in foreign affairs a

31:21

few years ago at a time

31:23

when the Biden administration was at

31:25

least attempting to put in place

31:27

a relatively accommodating policy toward the

31:29

region where you wrote, and I'm

31:31

quoting you here. There's one emerging

31:33

consensus on which many Latin American

31:35

politicians on both the left and

31:37

the right surprisingly agree in the

31:39

escalating global confrontation between China and

31:41

the United States. Their countries should

31:43

pursue a truly independent or non-aligned

31:45

path. There must be debates in

31:47

regional capitals right now about whether

31:49

it's time to move from non-aligned

31:51

to leaning toward Beijing, but at

31:53

the same time. That's something that

31:55

would likely attract attention that would

31:57

not be particularly helpful to them

31:59

from Washington. How do you see

32:01

those debates playing out? Do you

32:03

see the Chinese role shifting in

32:05

the face of changing US policy?

32:07

Dan, I speak to leaders all

32:09

over the region on left. center

32:11

and right, and all of us

32:13

have favorite questions that we ask

32:15

people, and I tend to ask

32:17

the question, what keeps you up

32:19

at night? And in recent years,

32:21

the almost unanimous answer to that

32:23

question was having to choose between

32:26

Washington and Beijing, having to choose

32:28

between China, which has become the

32:30

number one or number two trading

32:32

partner for virtually every country in

32:34

the region with the exception of

32:36

Mexico, or the United States, which

32:38

remains the biggest investor. in Latin

32:40

America and of course a country

32:42

that is very connected in family,

32:44

cultural ties and elsewhere. Sitting here

32:46

today, two months into the Trump

32:48

administration, I think that debate is

32:50

still happening. I think people sense

32:52

that it's shifting under their feet,

32:54

that a moment where they might

32:56

have to make that decision or

32:58

make more of a commitment to

33:00

one side or another might be

33:02

coming. Maybe we're not quite there

33:04

yet. There have been some analysts

33:06

who have argued that President Trump's

33:08

actions so far maybe driving countries

33:10

more into the arms of China.

33:12

I question that. I don't underestimate

33:14

the importance that China has gained

33:16

in terms of trade and investment

33:18

over the last... 20, 25 years.

33:20

I mean, it's astounding. But it's

33:22

also true that Chinese foreign direct

33:24

investment has been dropping globally over

33:26

the last couple years. And this

33:28

perhaps reflects things that are happening

33:30

within China itself, rather than conditions

33:32

on the ground in Latin America

33:34

or anywhere else. And I also

33:36

hear from the private sector all

33:39

over Latin America that they really

33:41

want to maintain ties with the

33:43

United States. They're not ready to

33:45

go all in on China. Now,

33:47

when I think about the risks

33:49

from President Trump's approach right now,

33:51

I actually, Dan, I think more

33:53

of Canada. I think of how

33:55

President Trump's actions and words have

33:57

taken a country that was perhaps

33:59

among the strongest U.S. allies in

34:01

trading. partners and have completely turned

34:03

upside down the Canadian election.

34:05

And I look at Latin America

34:07

with all the history of U.S.

34:10

interventionism going back more than a

34:12

century. Some of that muscle memory

34:14

is there. And I wonder if

34:17

perhaps the big risk is not

34:19

necessarily pushing countries into the arms

34:21

of China, but in really turning

34:24

domestic politics in some of these

34:26

countries upside down, like in the

34:28

Brazilian election next year, if the

34:31

Trump administration tries to put its

34:33

finger on the scale, that could

34:35

produce an unexpected reaction. There

34:37

are so many specific countries and leaders that

34:40

we could spend another hour talking about, but

34:42

I want to focus on a couple that

34:44

you've done some outstanding reporting on in places

34:46

where you've lived over the last couple of

34:48

decades. The first of those is Brazil, which

34:50

you just mentioned. It seems like it should

34:53

be a pretty good moment for Brazil in

34:55

some ways. The economy is not doing so

34:57

badly. The kind of geopolitical shifts seem like

34:59

they should be. relatively advantageous for Brazilian foreign

35:01

policy at least under Lula and yet Lula

35:03

himself is is struggling and seems like he's

35:06

likely not to see a successor that he

35:08

would approve of anything a kind of bull

35:10

scenario like movement may may return. What is

35:12

accounting for Lula's struggles and is it not

35:15

inevitable? Is it likely that you will see

35:17

someone more like bull scenario return? Is the

35:19

point you alluded to earlier? Yeah, so polls

35:21

show Lula's approval rating is down about 12

35:23

percentage points just this year. which puts him

35:26

somewhere in the upper 30s or

35:28

the low 40s, which in the

35:30

scheme of things globally, those aren't

35:32

terrible numbers. And it reflects the

35:34

fact that overall, you know, Brazil's

35:36

doing okay. It's an economy that

35:38

has outperformed expectations in recent years.

35:40

It's grown more than 3%. This

35:43

year, it will probably grow closer

35:45

to 1.5 or 2, but those

35:47

aren't terrible numbers. But food inflation

35:49

is up. People are feeling nervous

35:52

about their standard of living.

35:54

and a lot of Brazilian

35:56

see a leader who is

35:59

aging and. somewhat out of

36:01

touch with what's happening in the country.

36:03

Stop me if you've seen this movie

36:05

before. You know, there are parallels here

36:08

with what happened in the United States

36:10

and with President Biden. And you know,

36:12

Lula is coming up on 80 years

36:15

old. And so there's a dynamic there.

36:17

It's also true that Brazilian society, like

36:19

a lot of others, it's becoming more

36:22

conservative. This is a country that in

36:24

the span of a generation has gone

36:26

from 7% of its population was evangelical

36:28

Christian back in the 1980s. That number

36:31

is 35% today. That is a massive

36:33

social change in a relatively

36:35

short period of time. And

36:37

Brazil's National Statistics Institute believes

36:40

that the evangelicals could actually

36:42

be a majority within a

36:44

decade. And so the politics

36:46

reflect that. That is one of

36:48

the factors that explains the election

36:50

of Jair Bolsonaro back in 2018,

36:52

and it's one reason why a

36:54

conservative could win in the election

36:57

in 2026. Now, it's unclear whether

36:59

Lula will run for office again,

37:01

but if he does, he will

37:03

face a strong challenge from the

37:05

Brazilian right. You also mentioned Claudia

37:07

Shinbaum earlier as an example of a

37:09

leader who seems to have figured out

37:11

how to address Trump. She's also making

37:13

a pretty striking effort to address some

37:15

of the kind of persistent challenges in

37:18

Mexico, both on the economic front and

37:20

on the security front. How do you

37:22

assess the progress in those areas, kind

37:24

of leaving aside the the Trump dynamic,

37:26

though that's of course very, very dominant

37:28

in each of those. Polls and Mexico

37:30

show that this is one of several

37:32

Latin American countries that places security is

37:34

the top challenge. predecessor Andres

37:37

Manuel Lopez Obrodor was very popular,

37:39

had approval in the 60s or

37:41

70s at various points of his

37:44

administration, made a lot of progress

37:46

on things like social programs, on

37:48

helping pensioners and the working class,

37:50

did not have an effective policy

37:53

when it came to security. Famously

37:55

called his program, Abrasos Nobalasos, which

37:57

meant hugs, not bullets, believed... that

38:00

essentially that confronting the cartels only

38:02

caused more violence, only made things

38:04

worse, that approach over his six

38:06

years in government did not produce

38:09

the intended result. It was always

38:11

somewhat clear that President Shane Baum,

38:13

who has always been aligned with

38:15

former President Lopez Obredor, was seen

38:17

by Mexican voters as a protege.

38:20

It was clear that she had

38:22

different ideas when it came to

38:24

security, that she favored a tougher

38:26

approach. She was always likely to

38:29

come in and do things differently.

38:31

Some people believe that because

38:33

of the pressure from President

38:35

Trump. that this has given her

38:37

the opportunity, perhaps the political cover,

38:40

to take an even tougher approach

38:42

on public security. And so far,

38:45

this is one reason why she

38:47

is even more popular than Lopez

38:49

Oberdor, with an approval rating above

38:52

80%. in some polls. She is

38:54

seen by Mexicans as a leader

38:56

who is responsibly handling the confrontation

38:59

with the United States, trying to

39:01

find some sort of exit strategy

39:04

if you will that will ultimately

39:06

be favorable to Mexico, but

39:08

who also understands the deep

39:10

security challenges, which are not

39:13

just about homicide. They're about

39:15

extortion. They're about cartels who

39:17

control swaths of territory, who

39:19

require people to make payments

39:21

just to lead their daily

39:23

lives. The challenge is immense.

39:26

It's not clear that the

39:28

Mexican state will ultimately have

39:30

enough resources to take on

39:32

these very powerful cartels whose

39:34

pockets are filled with billions

39:36

of dollars from American consumers and from other

39:39

countries who consume the drugs. I think Mexicans

39:41

so far are giving President Shane Baum a

39:43

lot of credit for trying to take a

39:45

more confrontational approach with these groups and not

39:48

just do kind of a live and let

39:50

live thing. When it comes to fentanyl specifically,

39:52

the dimension of this that will get the

39:54

most attention from Washington, does she have a

39:57

clear strategy? Is there kind of a theory

39:59

of that? the case for how this

40:01

could work? I mean, many people have

40:03

noted just how challenging this is given

40:06

the tiny volumes of fentanyl that come

40:08

across in huge volumes of legal trade.

40:10

Well, Dan, seizures of fentanyl are up.

40:13

There have been some record-high seizures. President

40:15

Shanebaum also made the Trump administration quite

40:17

happy by extraditing almost 30 major cartel

40:20

leaders a couple of weeks ago. And

40:22

so... you know, people in Washington are

40:24

happy with this. But to your question,

40:27

I remember when fentanyl first started rising

40:29

in popularity several years ago, and I

40:31

heard someone said, you know, the drug

40:34

war is over now, we just don't

40:36

know it. And what they meant by

40:38

this was because the quantities were so

40:41

inconceivably small, where, you know, a shipping

40:43

container of fentanyl would be enough to

40:45

supply U.S. demand, I think, for a

40:48

period of several years. This old strategy

40:50

of detection and seizure simply may not

40:52

be effective. I don't know what the

40:54

alternative is. It's clear that we need

40:57

solutions to the fentanyl epidemic in the

40:59

United States, but as to whether these

41:01

kinds of tactics can be effective over

41:04

time beyond just generating headlines and giving

41:06

diplomats things that they can point to

41:08

as examples of success, I think is

41:11

less clear. Let me go to one

41:13

more country that you've done a lot

41:15

of work on, and that's Columbia. You

41:18

mentioned Gustavo Petro earlier in his interactions

41:20

with Trump. Columbia, if you went back,

41:22

you know, not that many years, was

41:25

seen as the kind of great success

41:27

story of US policy in the region,

41:29

starting with Plancklumbia under President Clinton and

41:32

the kind of trajectory of a country

41:34

that seemed like it was going to

41:36

fall apart. It was kind of a

41:38

failed state. in the 1990s and early

41:41

2000s to looking like a success story,

41:43

that started to backslide in some worrying

41:45

ways. How do you understand that trajectory

41:48

and how worried are you about the

41:50

course of Columbia at this point? You

41:52

know, Columbia, I think, is one of

41:55

many countries where you have to take.

41:57

the longer term view and look at

41:59

the movie, not just the photo. I

42:02

have seen in many countries in the

42:04

25 years that I've been doing this

42:06

unexpected progress, solutions to problems that none

42:09

of us believed were possible. And Colombia

42:11

is an example of this. I mean,

42:13

back in the early 2000s, for example,

42:16

when former President Alvo Aribé was inaugurated

42:18

in 2002, his inauguration. was shelled with

42:20

mortar fire from the FARC, from the

42:23

guerrilla group, and 17 people were killed.

42:25

Diplomats who attended that inauguration had to

42:27

literally run for their lives. Since then,

42:29

it's not today a perfect place by

42:32

any stretch of the imagination, but homicides

42:34

have fallen a lot. The state now

42:36

controls vast areas that it did not

42:39

before, and it feels fundamentally like a

42:41

different country. Some of that progress has

42:43

been... put in question. You know, critics

42:46

of President Petro accuse him of taking

42:48

his eye off the ball when it

42:50

comes to security. President Petro did have

42:53

a peace strategy called Total Peace, but

42:55

its implementation has been more difficult than

42:57

he expected. There's a lot of frustration

43:00

in Colombia over both that as well

43:02

as the economy, and that's one of

43:04

the reasons why it seems that the

43:07

right may be in a position to

43:09

come back and when they have presidential

43:11

elections next year. In the face of

43:13

all of these dynamics, there's been a

43:16

lot of hand-wringing in recent years about

43:18

the state of democracy in the region,

43:20

given inequality and organized crime and everything

43:23

else, you've seen, I think, kind of

43:25

different levels of support for democracy over

43:27

the years in polling. Do you worry

43:30

about the state of democracy in Latin

43:32

America? I think we have some very

43:34

strong democracies in Latin America. Places like

43:37

Argentina and Chile. Chile has a tradition

43:39

where the votes are counted very quickly.

43:41

And then once the result is declared,

43:44

the two candidates appear on television together.

43:46

while one congratulates the other. Uruguay is

43:48

another country where, you know, democracy is

43:51

very strong. Brazil is a country that

43:53

has an electronic voting system that works

43:55

quite well and where they count the

43:58

votes and... Question of hours, not a

44:00

question of days. As an American, it

44:02

can be very humbling to see all

44:04

of these examples. That said, Dan, the

44:07

threats that democratic institutions are under throughout

44:09

the West and throughout the world are

44:11

well known. I think that there's always

44:14

this temptation. And I feel like watching,

44:16

again, not just Latin America, but the

44:18

whole world. I've come to the conclusion

44:21

that there's this thing inside of us

44:23

as human beings that wants to follow

44:25

a strong leader, that wants to tune

44:28

out all the other noise and all

44:30

the other infighting and just follow that

44:32

person. And I think history and particularly

44:35

the 20th century taught us that that's

44:37

actually quite destructive in many cases that

44:39

you know we need countervailing institutions. We

44:42

need checks and balances in order to

44:44

prevent some of those horrors from happening,

44:46

wars, bad economic decisions, and so on.

44:48

And, you know, maybe we're going through

44:51

a phase now where we have to

44:53

relearn some of those lessons, and we

44:55

can look to countries in Latin America,

44:58

you know, many of the countries that

45:00

I mentioned have enormous challenges when it

45:02

comes to their economy and crime and

45:05

so on, but they continue to illuminate

45:07

a path and be good examples of

45:09

how democracy can and should work. I'm

45:12

struck by how many Latin American friends

45:14

in the last few months have texted

45:16

me saying something like now you know

45:19

we've been living with for our entire

45:21

lives. I have one friend in Ecuador

45:23

in particular who about once a week

45:26

text me and says this is the

45:28

American cadilla and I hope you're enjoying

45:30

it. Again, I think it's a universal

45:33

thing. I think it's part of the

45:35

human condition and you know none of

45:37

us are immune to it. Brian, thank

45:39

you so much for doing this. People

45:42

can read your work at America's quarterly.

45:44

excellent edit, which happens

45:46

to be which the

45:49

street from Foreign

45:51

Affairs, and we will

45:53

look forward to

45:56

having you back in

45:58

our pages we will

46:00

long, I hope. It's

46:03

been fun. Thanks,

46:05

Dan. you back in our pages before

46:07

too long I hope. It's been fun,

46:10

thanks to you. Thank you for listening.

46:12

You can you for

46:14

listening. You can find the

46:16

articles that we discussed on today's

46:18

show at foreignaffairs.com. Foreign The Foreign

46:20

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46:22

Fleming -Dresser, Dresser, Molly Mcananey, Ben Metzner, and Caroline

46:24

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