0:00

n p r

0:11

are

0:11

we in in a that is the question we heard

0:13

a lot recently on the indicator and

0:16

in the voice in my brain yes because

0:18

dictator is really confusing the jobs

0:20

market has been running really hot but

0:23

output growth is falling a little the

0:25

world looks really scary we've even had

0:27

the word stagflation a stagnant

0:29

economy with high inflation is that what's

0:31

happening the less than we felt like this was like

0:34

nineteen eighty at the time

0:36

the said sir paul volcker was really

0:39

unapologetic about needing to jack up

0:41

the interest rates and cause short

0:43

term economic damage to fight inflation

0:45

but you know you can't deal with a problem

0:48

we say we're gonna let inflation

0:50

go ahead and we're trying to combat the inflation

0:53

and as a result unemployment would reach

0:55

nearly eight percent more than

0:57

double what we have today really tough

0:59

times and say you would think people

1:01

would be sitting around listening to

1:03

sad ballads to go with the satire

1:09

that is actually not the case hi

1:14

yeah that year nineteen eighties

1:16

queen was number one on the charts with crazy

1:18

little thing called love it's a

1:21

snap be infectious disease

1:23

it's happy music which it

1:25

turns out is not unusual

1:27

for recession new paper

1:29

in the journal of cultural economic shows when

1:31

the economy is crumbling were

1:34

actually little more likely to want to listen

1:36

to happy music visited

1:38

get from point a money i made remarks and

1:40

i'm during woods when we heard that

1:42

people would listen to have your music during a recession

1:45

we thought that this is the perfect jobs to

1:48

have a little fun and these uncertain times

1:50

we can revisit the pop charts to

1:53

learn about recessions past and

1:55

maybe just maybe get maybe clue

1:57

about where we're at economically and to

1:59

renegade after the break darien

2:02

the going to take us on a musical and economic

2:04

journey

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by lincoln financial distributors member finra

2:46

apollo make it is a doctoral candidate in

2:48

economics at the university of oh color and

2:50

spain he bass guitar bass

2:53

he sings and he studied trump's professionally

2:56

this is how blocks we use you flamingo

2:58

music would you gotta play a couple of beats on their box

3:00

the thrive

3:05

the

3:07

so go and mako has managed to

3:09

combine his love for music and

3:12

economics as i'm was his yeah i

3:14

always notice that you seek

3:16

help people to be more happy when they

3:18

are sad and of that and so

3:20

marco paired up with a coauthor want

3:23

a lucio and they went out to see

3:25

whether there was any link between the

3:27

mood of popular music with the booms

3:30

and busts in the economy mokoena

3:32

, made a data set of all the songs

3:35

in america's main singles charts that billboard

3:37

hot one hundred every week from nineteen

3:40

fifty eight to two thousand and nineteen mako

3:42

in his coauthors use artificial intelligence

3:44

software to classify whether the song

3:46

was positive or negative based on

3:48

it's lyrics and then they

3:51

best they songs against weekly

3:53

unemployment claims in claims was

3:55

thinking that when this reason this bad

3:57

reason is will search for music

3:59

that

3:59

express their feelings

4:01

that they found the other seats so diana

4:03

ross ain't no mountain high enough this was

4:05

number one and the singles charts in the

4:08

nineteen seventy recession he also had

4:10

step by step by do kids on the block

4:12

this is a single during the ninety ninety recession

4:14

janet jackson oh for you in two thousand and one

4:17

and only singles or up these

4:19

positive songs and to

4:21

be clear mako in his courses

4:23

only found a really small effect

4:26

but the relationship held up it was statistically

4:29

significant and this is similar to

4:31

broader finding set during recessions

4:34

people buy it by or do more

4:36

inexpensive things like give them a little bit

4:38

of joy a , paper

4:40

found evidence of more spending on lipstick

4:42

during the two thousand and eight recession so

4:45

they are this is a cheap way to heighten your

4:47

look when money is tight tight

4:49

this is known as an economics as the lipstick

4:51

effect i mean this case the music

4:53

nowadays we have is that if i almost three is

4:55

always is it's every group

4:58

do consume have when you have no money so

5:00

given matos bindings we have developed

5:03

a one off quiz show for moto

5:05

ended the catalysis at home and compile on

5:07

we're naming it hits of the depths

5:09

we're going to play clips of singles that would number one

5:12

on the shots at some point during some recession

5:18

ends you have to guess which recessions

5:20

the single was from i feel

5:22

and mako going to be has a has be

5:24

has again

5:33

maybe they're maybe

5:36

they only north isn't seventy four

5:39

that it isn't a little bit later this is in nineteen

5:41

eighty two this is olivia newton john physical

5:44

said this is the second of two recessions

5:46

in the early eighties answer paul

5:48

volcker had already spot one

5:50

downturn and nice and easy but

5:52

inflation wasn't going down enough

5:54

so the fed had raise interest rates even

5:57

higher to fight inflation even

5:59

though many people were losing their jobs

6:02

you know interest rates were around twenty percent

6:04

of the time unemployment is high but

6:06

there are listening to olivia newton john

6:08

physical which are not quite a happy saw

6:11

certified next song and nexus

6:22

i

6:26

don't know maybe sixty

6:28

a little bit later yeah seventy

6:30

three city bought cigarettes i have any for

6:33

ya se seventy three seventy five

6:35

and the us are those of a recession okay

6:37

they always crisis the oil prices for

6:39

a yak opec the organization

6:42

of oil producing countries which has quadrupled

6:44

the price of crude oil in two years

6:46

and thrown the industrial world and and grave

6:49

turmoil unemployment rising it

6:51

it gives up to nine percent by nineteen seventy

6:53

five and , with got barry white

6:55

crooning about love with this song can't

6:57

get enough of your love they've where

7:01

we can always talk about love and me of

7:03

the i totally think says

7:05

that see what we think mother

7:10

the young to fly yes correct yes

7:13

i'm going to say there was an

7:15

official moment correctly remember

7:20

the us a single lady right seems have

7:22

been the soundtrack of the global financial

7:24

crisis well as other who

7:27

would say athena yeah yeah and

7:29

i this at the time was the worst

7:31

recession since the great depression

7:33

unemployment was shooting up fast

7:36

hose getting foreclosed everywhere and yeah

7:38

we have and is very terrorism yeah is

7:40

yeah is furious rec the

7:42

that's a bit weird isn't it entice as as the past

7:46

i want to see a diagnosis because a lot of people the moment

7:48

a sinking

7:50

are we in a recession in the us

7:52

and different indicators of been saying different

7:54

things and ends our official

7:57

organization that cause resistance the in br

7:59

has not yet said that there is a recession

8:02

by other measures you could say that

8:04

there is two quarters of gdp contractions

8:07

but then again then labor markets doing really well

8:10

the want to play a song which was a

8:12

his of the summer song

8:14

i stayed in the number one

8:16

of the billboard hot one hundred in

8:19

some wanting what you think about this like whether

8:21

this kind of is the kind of song would here

8:23

is that more often in a recession

8:25

or more often in a boom apply for

8:34

ourselves , it was what are your thoughts

8:37

yeah except for the melancholic so right

8:39

yes home home

8:41

go to the do through this is studies

8:43

you are not the know the great

8:47

i mean not into recession as good like

8:49

sad songs potentially good news

8:51

but i don't others parts of the song that

8:53

a given me pause rights like the lyrics a

8:55

pretty sad good for the economy potentially

8:58

or but the keyboard melody is pretty

9:00

balanced see like it's kind of these mixed messages

9:03

in the song like and was a little bit like our

9:05

economy today like good jobs market

9:07

for example but you know falling stock

9:09

market the a soup is is

9:11

kind of funny way is he soon

9:14

too much pretty when with his into his yeah

9:16

they go hairstyles as it was kind of

9:18

symbolic of the mixed signals

9:20

were getting in the economy of them ss marco

9:24

polo make them ss great to have you on the say thanks

9:26

for joining indicator things in life is have

9:29

been africa little folks by hits

9:31

of the dep's thank you and good

9:36

the show is produced by cory bridges with engineering

9:38

from robert rodriguez has fact-checked much of a

9:40

hv hitler as a senior producer and canada

9:43

edit the show the indicator is of production with

9:45

npr money

9:48

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9:48

all kinds of weird and interesting stories

9:51

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