0:02

The end of the day, the number of

0:04

movies and theaters is the best

0:06

indicator of how well the box

0:08

office is gonna do in a given year. Welcome

0:14

to the Powers That Be Daily. Puck's

0:16

podcast focused on the intersection of Wall

0:18

Street, Washington, Silicon Valley, and Hollywood, and

0:20

the players who run it all. I'm

0:23

Peter Hamby. It's Thursday, January 4th.

0:25

Today, I'm joined by Matt Bellamy with

0:27

his take on the solid box

0:29

office numbers we saw over the

0:31

holidays, anchored by the breakout hit Wonka.

0:34

But will the Hollywood momentum carry over

0:36

into 2024? Matt

0:38

isn't so sure. We'll discuss all that and

0:40

much, much more on today's episode of

0:42

the Powers That Be. ["The Powers

0:44

That Be"] ["The Powers That Be"] Happy

0:57

Thursday, everybody. Welcome to the Powers That

1:00

Be. I have a very special guest

1:02

on today's podcast, Matt Bellamy. And I say

1:04

special because I am very anxious to

1:07

talk to Matt about the holiday

1:09

box office. Matt, welcome to the

1:11

show. Did you see any movies in theaters over

1:14

the holidays? Happy New Year

1:16

to you. And the answer to

1:18

that is actually no, I did not. I

1:21

watched the Holdovers. I liked that Holdovers. I watched it

1:23

at home too. Did you like it? I

1:25

did. I thought it was fantastic, actually. I thought

1:27

Paul Giamatti was amazing. I thought everybody in the

1:30

cast was great. But I actually

1:32

did not go to the theater. We were in

1:34

New York and then visiting family in South Carolina.

1:37

Did not make it to the theater.

1:39

But I had seen so many of

1:41

these movies before the break that I

1:43

sort of needed a break from the

1:45

movies. Industry insiders like

1:47

you get to see movies ahead

1:50

of time. So

1:52

according to Scott Mendelson, our colleague at Puck,

1:55

Wonka was the main hit

1:58

over the holidays. I think they. or

2:00

the four-day holiday weekend, they grossed like

2:02

$30 million for that. But I

2:05

mean, four-day holiday weekend is probably too small

2:07

of a band to put around the holiday

2:09

box office because people spend a whole week

2:11

going to movies. Oh yeah, I mean,

2:14

the consensus is that during the

2:16

Christmas corridor, every day is a

2:18

Saturday. Yes. So you

2:21

can rack up some pretty impressive

2:23

grosses over that two-week period. And

2:26

that's why the studios throw everything

2:28

they've got into that corridor. And

2:30

we had some pretty big hits and

2:33

misses. The surprise, I think for

2:35

a lot of people, including myself, is how

2:37

well Wonka is doing. I

2:39

was down on this movie, as we have talked about on

2:41

the show in the past. I

2:43

didn't think that Timothée Chalamet could open

2:45

this kind of movie. And I was

2:48

totally proven wrong. It said about 400

2:50

million worldwide. And it was

2:52

cleaning up in a way that Aquaman 2

2:55

did not. Aquaman 2 is at about 250 worldwide

2:59

and he's on a budget well over $200 million. The

3:02

first Aquaman grossed over a billion dollars.

3:04

This one is gonna be lucky if

3:06

it gets to like three, 400 million.

3:09

So big fail there for Warner Brothers. They

3:12

are done with this incarnation of the DC universe.

3:14

They're trying to move on. They're gonna reboot

3:16

in 2025 with a new Superman movie, but a

3:18

pretty horrible 2023 for the DC universe. And

3:24

then there were a bunch of smaller movies

3:26

that actually performed well. There was an animated

3:28

kids film called Migration from

3:30

Illumination. That's doing okay.

3:33

There was a Clooney movie that I

3:35

was baffled is actually doing okay. I've

3:38

got no stars about rowing. Boys in the

3:40

boat. And it said about, the boys

3:42

in the boat. It said about 25 million, which

3:46

I think is more than most people

3:48

expected. The Zac Efron wrestling movie, The

3:50

Iron Claw is doing okay at about

3:52

20 million. There's a couple

3:54

of others as well that are, the

3:56

Sydney Sweeney Glen Powell rom-com. Anyone

3:59

But you. God. To about twenty

4:01

five million during the holidays as well

4:03

as action except about thirty now. and

4:05

that's more that most you have thought

4:07

that this movie would go directly to

4:09

streaming and it was sort of a

4:12

weird thing to release it over the

4:14

holidays. Seems like you know if you're

4:16

going to put in theaters dude over

4:18

Valentine's weekends by Sony chose not to

4:20

and it's doing okay. We'll see how

4:22

long it'll go by over about the

4:24

box office for the holidays with up.

4:27

Over. Twenty Twenty Two With ending

4:29

as a surprise, the domestic box

4:31

office for the year got to

4:34

nine billion and that is the

4:36

highest growth of the posts pandemic

4:38

era. But it's still. About

4:41

twenty percent lower than the pre

4:43

pandemic era, so the box office

4:45

has definitely not come back from

4:47

pre pandemic times. but it ends

4:49

forward this year. Ah that makes

4:51

me happy. So we went to

4:53

sell was in Richmond with Katie

4:55

and and spend holidays with with

4:57

my family there and we were

4:59

in at Christmas card or. Lane.

5:02

We went to see Wonka. At.

5:05

Movie Land in Richmond, right off of Broad

5:07

Street the day after Christmas and the parking

5:09

lot with fall. Ah and you know the

5:11

I was like oh man this has to

5:13

be like one of the biggest food is

5:15

a the air like he said everyday the

5:17

Saturday during that week. But one thing I

5:19

was like. Pleasantly surprised by

5:22

was walking into the theater

5:24

and looking up at the

5:26

Marquis and. To. Thing: some

5:28

thousand Me One: The volume of movies

5:31

that were listed at the theater and

5:33

ever want to screens at this movie

5:35

land I didn't even mention color. Turboprop

5:37

Royals open Toed eighteen million on Christmas

5:39

Day had softened a little bit. Average.

5:41

That's by. it's doing fine right? So

5:43

the color purple? anyone but you. Boys.

5:46

Are both Wonka Iron Claw? These

5:48

movies rub their migration. Know the

5:50

girl? That's a big variety of

5:52

movies that aren't just. Superhero.

5:55

Movies. And you know, animated movies or

5:58

horror movies. And I'm like that. It

6:00

feels good, a big variety and into yeah like

6:02

there were people there, there were butts in seats

6:04

and you know listen, Elites in a theater we

6:06

ran it was again like a kind of a

6:09

consensus holiday movie. like you can take your whole

6:11

family, people of all ages. There are a lot

6:13

of if there was like a bunch of adult

6:15

jokes in there that work that you know and

6:18

stuff for the kids obviously and it was good.

6:20

It was a good movie. Now is like a

6:22

good way to like spend one of the days

6:24

after Christmas and is just felt. Somewhat.

6:28

Like. A pre pandemic back to normal

6:30

and I was personally am rooting for

6:32

the the lack. Of Marvel

6:35

and Dc movies us up there so

6:37

I'm curious what are was a D

6:39

V movie? There was a D movie

6:41

that nobody receiving an awkward man but

6:44

the right Disney did sit out the

6:46

holidays this year, which is pretty unusual.

6:48

They'd been very active last year. They

6:50

had Avatar and obviously prevent damage dates

6:53

would usually releasing a Marvel or a

6:55

Star Wars over the holidays. You're also

6:57

Paramount. didn't have a movie over the

6:59

holidays but pretty much everyone else did

7:02

and you know that's what the theaters

7:04

need. Me, it is. We we

7:06

now know what drives box office.

7:09

It's volume. The. Theaters need a

7:11

certain amount of movies in theaters.

7:13

Scott Mendelssohn at Pugs these a

7:15

new contributor Write him a box

7:17

office. He didn't seem pieces past

7:19

week about looking up the just

7:21

number of releases and the reason

7:23

why the box office got to

7:25

where it did this year was

7:27

because the number of releases came

7:29

up. And. That's is pure

7:31

math. Like you can have hits

7:33

and misses and bombs and disappointments

7:35

and surprises and things that come

7:37

out of nowhere like Sound of

7:39

Freedom or Bourbon Ima But. The.

7:42

End of the day. The. Number of

7:44

movies in theaters with is the best

7:46

indicator of how well the box office

7:48

is gonna do any given year. Also.

7:51

Credit to Sydney Sweeney and Glenn Towel for

7:53

all of the sexual tension that played out

7:55

in real time during the filming of that

7:58

movie on social media, bringing them. The

8:00

out to to see what their chemistry is

8:02

like on screen. I'm sure that contributed. really

8:04

I'm not a now are these are the

8:06

press tour that would not and it was

8:08

interrupted by the strike and then restarted again.

8:10

So it felt like it was going on

8:12

for a year and a half. Of

8:15

an so get some at the holiday.

8:18

Hummers were pretty good but are after

8:20

the break own. Ask you your thoughts

8:22

on box office revenue in a year?

8:25

Twenty twenty four. Hours

8:40

of everybody and talking box office with

8:42

that only what else Matt we talked

8:45

for the Christmas court or lots of

8:47

good indicators their I think but were

8:49

chatting before coming on was what is

8:51

twenty Twenty Four gonna look like I

8:53

mean are we going to see a

8:55

lot of volume in in theaters are?

8:57

Did the to the strike slow things

8:59

down with what are we thinking. That.

9:01

The short answer is no, we're

9:03

not going to see volume and

9:05

that's a real problem for both

9:07

the Hollywood studios and for most

9:10

importantly, the theaters. Because the strikes

9:12

have been really debilitating so far,

9:14

we saw movies that were pushed

9:16

out of Twenty Twenty three like

9:18

Dune Two Aunts, The Ghostbusters Seek

9:20

Wall, and As and Day a

9:22

movie that was posted April. But

9:25

now we're getting into January and

9:27

February and it is looking bullied

9:29

in theaters. There's a Mean Girls

9:31

Musical. Adaptation that's coming in a

9:33

couple weeks. That's like the big movie

9:35

of January. Couple horror movies there that

9:38

Jason Statham action movie. It's not a

9:40

lot going on, and then even in

9:42

February where we typically see some of

9:45

the bigger budget plays happen. Now there's

9:47

a Marvel Light movie called Madam Web.

9:49

It's not M C You. It's like

9:52

Gods The Sony Marvel's sorry Dakota Johnson,

9:54

Sydney Sweeney that's not looking like it's

9:56

going to light the box office on

9:58

fire. There There's. The Bob Marley

10:01

bio pic that could you okay

10:03

in February But but but basically

10:05

there's not a real Hollywood tentpole

10:08

style movie until March with Dune

10:10

Part Two. And then there's a

10:12

Kung Fu Panda movie in a

10:15

couple others that I think could

10:17

kind of be more traditional in

10:19

their in their returns worldwide. but.

10:22

This. Is the story all year? there are

10:25

not as many other than Despicable Me For

10:27

which is coming out in the summer. There's

10:29

not a movie that you look at on

10:32

paper and say oh, this is gonna make

10:34

a billion dollars and that is potentially very

10:36

problematic. I don't think the box office is

10:38

even going to get to eight. Billion.

10:41

Domestic this next year and he got

10:43

to Nine this year. But is that

10:45

because of the strikes and the backups

10:47

resulted from the yes, There's a number

10:49

of movies that were supposed to come

10:51

out. and Twenty Twenty Four that are

10:53

not the big one is the Mission

10:55

Impossible movie. The Response To Be Dead

10:57

Reckoning part to with us to come

10:59

out at this that this year and

11:01

that has been posted. Twenty Twenty Five:

11:03

There's a Marvel Captain America movie that

11:05

was placed. There's a Pixar movie called

11:07

Yo that was pushed to next year.

11:09

There's a Snow White. Remakes.

11:12

With Rachel Ziegler. That. Was

11:14

plus to next year. So these

11:16

are all the kinds of movies

11:18

that would potentially gross in the

11:20

five hundred to a billion rains.

11:22

And when you take those out

11:25

of the equation, they start to

11:27

add up. Now obviously at the

11:29

beginning, at Twenty Twenty Three, nobody

11:31

would have predicted the Barb and

11:33

Haim or phenomenon and that those

11:35

movies would get to one point

11:37

four billion and Nine Fifty million,

11:40

respectively. But barring some kind of

11:42

phenomenon like that on. Paper this

11:44

next year does not look very promise.

11:46

Yes! have noticed this to correct if

11:48

I'm wrong on streaming. just. Like.

11:50

To cells like every time have been

11:53

turning on one of the platforms the

11:55

last month. even the just feels like

11:57

there's not. A lot of. Stuff

12:00

coming out and so I am curious

12:02

of that's also that's described. Yeah, okay,

12:04

okay, that makes yeah, that's a strike.

12:06

These next couple months are gonna be

12:08

pretty bare. And then there are things

12:11

like the new True Detective on H

12:13

B O with Jodie Foster, which was

12:15

supposed to come out in the Fall,

12:17

but was pushed to January because they

12:19

need something to fill the hole for

12:21

The Streisand. So it's it's. had a

12:23

lot of effects on. The.

12:25

Schedule across the board, but it's beyond

12:28

that. I think for movies, eat without

12:30

some of these other big movies in

12:32

the mix that there's a lot of

12:34

titles this year that are franchises but

12:36

are sort of like Be Plus franchises

12:38

rather than in A Level franchises we

12:40

saw last year like last year we

12:42

saw a Fast and Furious and Indiana

12:44

Jones a Mission Impossible. You know those

12:47

are the kinds of of movies that

12:49

going into the year. They were hugely

12:51

expensive. people would have thought those were

12:53

the A Level franchise. Now lot of

12:55

those. Under perform their expectations,

12:57

but this year there's like

12:59

there's Gladiator to. Is.

13:01

That a franchise like Paul Mescal

13:03

and Denzel Washington in Gladiator movies

13:06

there's Beetlejuice to with Michael Keaton

13:08

coming back in General Ortega taking

13:10

on they sort of when own

13:12

a writer role. There's a Twisters

13:14

movie a sequel to Twister with

13:16

Glenn Powell, the and I Like.

13:20

Either you're laughing, these are not like

13:22

you're a list level franchise that's despicable

13:24

Me? Absolutely. that couldn't. That movie could

13:26

get to a billion dollars. There is

13:28

a Lion King prequels called Mufasa that

13:30

Barry Jenkins rise up and coming out

13:32

of the end of the year and

13:34

like the first, the most recent Lion

13:36

King remake did by one point five

13:38

billion worldwide. so this movie probably to

13:40

do pretty well. There's a Wicked movie

13:43

at the end of the year would

13:45

should do very well, but not a

13:47

guarantee that you know that movie could

13:49

be four quadrants. Men: Women old young.

13:51

It could be to quadrant women old young

13:53

so we don't know what that's going to

13:55

me. But throughout the year there's you know

13:58

there's there's not a John Whitmore. The

14:00

their They John Wick spin off

14:02

starring on His Arm is so

14:04

like there's yeah, there's a lot

14:06

of these question marks around these

14:08

franchise movies where we don't quite

14:10

know they're going to work on

14:12

the level that.the expectation for previous

14:14

year franchises might have had. Maddie.

14:17

Of course us and other podcast called the

14:19

Town that I want to be listening to

14:21

and on today's episode actually ah you have

14:23

a little bit of. Gossip.

14:25

And predictions about the Golden Gloves which

14:27

are this weekend. In case you forgot

14:30

that awards shows still exist. I'm Matt.

14:32

What's the gossip around Hollywood around? You

14:34

know who's gonna win some these things?

14:36

I mean, I feel like the only

14:39

source sought. Ah, Can name

14:41

is I'm just can. From. The

14:43

Barbie's have been winning Fantasize system as

14:45

a sore thing. Or yeah, the everyone

14:48

wants Ryan Gosling to perform at the

14:50

Oscars. but that song has to get

14:52

nominated first. It was shortlisted for the

14:54

Oscars and with nominated for the globe.

14:57

but they don't do performances on the

14:59

gloves typically. Maybe make an exception for

15:01

him. But. Die yeah. The

15:03

yeah. The thing with the globe's that's

15:05

interesting is that the big. Showdown.

15:08

This year is Barbie vs. Oppenheimer

15:10

and at the Globe they are

15:12

in different categories because the Gloves

15:15

split everything and Comedy, musical, and

15:17

drama. So. Oppenheimer up

15:19

Again, Snow Killers of a Flower Moon

15:21

and like some of these more serious

15:24

movies but the big Showdown between bar

15:26

been Oppenheimer's gonna have to wait for

15:28

the Oscars. The out that because the

15:30

clothes or what they are like the

15:32

big business narrative this year is that

15:34

they are back on Sunday night. They

15:36

have an Nfl lead in their moving

15:38

from N B to Cbs because and

15:41

B C did not want to pick

15:43

up the show after these scandals that's

15:45

the gloves have had with some of

15:47

their practices called out. In their lack

15:49

of diversity amongst their memberships and Cbs

15:51

took a shot with them Now and

15:53

B C is airing Sunday Night Football

15:55

opposite The Globe's So the question is

15:58

whether the ratings for The Gloves. Going

16:00

to go up from the six point

16:02

three million people that tuned in last

16:04

year which was the all time low,

16:06

but that show was on a Tuesday.

16:08

When most people don't think about watching

16:10

award shows having it on a Sunday

16:13

on a network like Cbs with Paramount

16:15

Plus as the streamer and it out

16:17

the the more typical Globes viewing experience.

16:19

I think the ratings are gonna go

16:21

up this year and the goal is

16:23

to get a long term deal that

16:25

will ensure the Globe's will be on

16:27

television or on streaming for a long.

16:30

Time because remember, And twenty twenty two,

16:32

They were kicked off the air. The.

16:34

Gloves did not air and twenty twenty two because

16:36

of their recent scandals. So I think now that

16:38

this is the year that the gloves are kind

16:41

of back, I call it a contract year like

16:43

an athlete where they're really trying to over perform

16:45

this year to try to get a long term

16:47

deal. will see if they do. Is

16:50

also the game on Sunday night. Bill.

16:52

Dawson's. Exactly Yeah, that's

16:54

Bills are normally the week. eighteen

16:56

games are like. Nothing. You

16:58

know most people don't miss the declared

17:00

on plague is it's plans to decided

17:02

by. this is as you know when

17:05

or go home games and it's out

17:07

up against the globe's different audiences. You

17:09

know it's not not quite the same

17:11

audiences gloves much more females by. I

17:13

think they be happy. Cbs would be

17:15

happy if he gets the like eight

17:17

nine million viewers opposite befall. That's not

17:19

bad for them. Math Thanks much man!

17:21

Happy New Year. Six

17:27

and Less realistic to another and powers the

17:29

Fi as a reminder hours that the is

17:31

the official podcast of costs. We like to

17:34

thank Been Landy Lives Gas and Alex Taylor

17:36

for their editorial and production guidance. If you

17:38

like what you hear, please share with a

17:40

friend. It really helps us to deliver Apes

17:43

Inside Scoop the only part can offer followers

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on Twitter at positives and then landed See

17:47

you tomorrow. this

17:52

has been a presentation of odyssey please

17:54

listen great review and follow all episodes

17:56

wherever you get your podcasts the powers

17:59

that be is executive produced

18:01

by John Kelly, co-founder of Puck,

18:03

Bob Tabador, and Ben Landy, executive

18:05

editor at Puck.