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Let's create. I'm

1:03

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1:05

I see them all around the city, I've

1:07

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1:10

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2:19

Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway. And

2:21

I'm Jessica Tarloff. Jessica, we're

2:24

Raging Moderates with an emphasis

2:26

on the term raging. Raging

2:29

all the time, yes. I

2:31

mean, I don't know if other people will think we're Raging

2:33

Moderates, but we're here to tell you why we are Raging

2:36

Moderates. What does the term moderate

2:38

mean to you? Moderate just

2:40

means anything that's around the center.

2:43

That's what it is. Around the center of an issue.

2:46

A lot of people like to identify themselves as

2:48

politically moderates. That's kind of like the center left

2:50

or the center right of each party. But

2:53

I think that it really comes down to

2:55

how you're feeling about a particular issue at

2:57

a particular time and that

2:59

that's what it means to be moderate. Yeah.

3:03

I like to think it means we're not part of a cult. But

3:05

occasionally we could acknowledge the other side. That

3:08

was too. Yeah. And

3:10

what are your objectives if this was a

3:12

win, if this podcast gets huge traction? What

3:15

are you hoping to accomplish here? I'm

3:17

hoping to have a lot of

3:19

really thoughtful conversations about where society

3:22

actually is and that maybe folks

3:24

who are running for office or an

3:27

elected office will take note of the

3:29

fact that the biggest voices, the biggest

3:31

coalition is actually around the center of

3:33

these issues and that they'll start

3:35

acting accordingly and also to draw those lines between

3:37

what's going on in the political sphere and what's

3:39

going on in the real world because it's all

3:42

intertwined. I mean, that's really what

3:44

you do so well. Let's talk about what's

3:46

happening in the business and in the markets

3:48

and how it's all part of one big

3:50

conversation. I

3:52

like that. I mostly just want power.

3:54

I'm hoping that we aggregate so much influence up

3:56

and down ballot. I think you have enough power

3:59

already. that we basically become the ultimate

4:02

king and queen makers and that

4:04

tomorrow belongs to us, Jessica. Okay,

4:07

let's bust right into it. In today's

4:09

episode of Raging Moderates, we'll be breaking

4:12

down the latest polling, our thoughts on

4:14

the proposed economic policies, and

4:16

what to expect from the 90-minute debate

4:18

between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. So

4:20

with that, Jessica, we've

4:22

officially entered the election season and a

4:25

block coming up between now and November

4:27

5th. Can you walk us through how

4:29

you're thinking about the latest polling, which

4:31

essentially shows Harris and Trump are neck

4:33

and neck? Yeah, so there

4:35

is... I mean, the first component of all of

4:37

this is that I'm fundamentally depressed that this is

4:39

a neck and neck race. I feel like every

4:41

time Donald Trump's on the ballot, you just think,

4:43

how is it possible that this could be close?

4:45

And yet it is, which is reflective of the

4:47

general theme of why we're here, to talk

4:50

about the moderate middle and where the

4:52

election is actually going to be won. But

4:54

it was a big polling weekend because the

4:57

New York Times-Ciena poll came out. Everyone always

4:59

goes bananas over it. It's actually... So

5:01

it's an A-plus quality poll, and

5:03

it's been the most friendly to Trump

5:05

consistently. When we started

5:08

seeing these results that he was winning

5:10

upper teens of black support, that he

5:12

was doing well with Gen Z voters,

5:14

that Biden and now Harris

5:16

were softer with female voters. That was all

5:18

coming out of the New York Times-Ciena poll.

5:21

So it's obviously something that makes you sit up

5:23

and listen. And this was the same. It was

5:25

just like the July poll. Similar

5:28

margins, same soft spots for

5:30

Kamala Harris. And

5:32

you could see, if you went on

5:34

any social media over the weekend, you could

5:37

see all of the Democrats absolutely losing

5:39

their mind. The bedwetting has commenced again,

5:42

which is the end of

5:44

brat summer, I guess, that we're all a

5:46

little less coconut-pilled, but a little bit more

5:48

realistic about the challenge in front of us.

5:51

Do you think... I've heard a lot

5:54

of fears that polling doesn't constantly

5:56

underestimate Trump because there's a lot

5:58

of closeted Trump voters. Do you think

6:00

that that still holds or the

6:02

people are no longer embarrassed about endorsing Trump

6:04

and they're no longer closeted? I

6:07

mean, he's lost a lot of elections, which I

6:09

feel like people don't talk about enough. He won

6:11

the big one. He won in 2016. But

6:15

since then, he's been a big drag on

6:18

down ballot tickets, obviously on his own ticket,

6:21

losing in 2020. And

6:23

so I'm not willing to say yet

6:26

that the three to five percent of Trump voters

6:28

that were closeted, which is what it was in

6:30

2016, that it could be that enormous. I

6:33

think there still are some what we

6:35

consider kind of normal people

6:37

or people that we run into more

6:39

who aren't diehard Trumpers that are persuaded

6:41

by a tax cut, for instance,

6:43

or might think he would be better for

6:45

Israel. And I want to talk about that.

6:47

There was a poll of Jewish voters that

6:49

I found fascinating. But

6:52

in general, I feel like people are pretty

6:54

much out there at this point. And this

6:57

election for Trump, win or

6:59

lose, is kind of, it

7:02

should be his last hurrah, right? He should

7:04

not be running on the top of the

7:06

ticket. If he loses again, he'll be 82

7:09

years old at that point. Or last

7:11

thud, right? Or last thud. Well,

7:14

that's the hope. I mean, he'll still try to play

7:16

kingmaker with other races, but this

7:18

is the crescendo moment of the Trump

7:20

era. And I think that people are

7:22

out there for it. What

7:24

strikes me is it's almost sort of comical that

7:27

we do these national polls because quite frankly, they're

7:29

meaningless. It really doesn't matter what these,

7:31

I mean, I guess they reflect momentum, but all

7:33

we really care about is

7:35

the choice, the polls in what,

7:37

five or six states. And in those states, as far

7:39

as I can tell, the majority

7:41

of them, she is up. And in some, she's

7:43

up by two, three points. I mean, if you

7:45

look at the national polls, okay, it's neck and

7:48

neck. I wonder how much of this is the media

7:50

wants to Jones up a closer race and make

7:53

it seem more heated and tighter than it is. And

7:55

I do think it's tighter than I would

7:58

have thought, but that when you

8:00

look at the swing states or when you look

8:02

at what is actually going to decide this election,

8:04

we should not report national polls. It just doesn't

8:06

make any sense. What does the picture look like

8:08

across the swing states? Well, first

8:10

to the national poll, in defense of

8:12

national polls, they're just a snapshot

8:15

in time. And I think that it is

8:18

important to continually gauge yourself as you're going

8:20

along and to look at those trend lines.

8:22

That's why forecasts are so interesting, right, to

8:24

see like where Biden was, then what Harris

8:26

has been able to do, how Trump is

8:29

moving around and he is doing better than

8:31

a lot of people expected. And he's coalescing

8:33

the base in a way that we hadn't

8:35

expected necessarily considering the primaries and all of

8:38

the Nikki Haley support that

8:40

we were seeing. So I think it is important

8:42

and also to draw the contrast. So we already

8:44

talked a little bit at the New York Times

8:46

poll, but there was an ABC Washington Post poll,

8:49

which is also an A plus pollster, and they

8:51

had Kamala Harris ahead by six with likely voters.

8:54

That contrast also important registered voters versus

8:56

likely voters. It's very different, like to

8:58

have an opinion versus I have an

9:00

opinion and I'm actually going to go

9:02

and vote. But you're

9:04

totally right about the battleground states. It's all basically

9:07

within the margin of error. And something that came

9:09

out in the last week or two that I

9:11

think is really fascinating is basically

9:13

Trump is zeroing in on one strategy. If

9:16

you look at where he's spending money on

9:18

advertising, he's got one route that he's heading

9:20

towards and Kamala Harris is still spreading it

9:22

out. She needs the blue wall, but she's

9:25

interested in the Sun Belt. They really think

9:27

North Carolina is in play for

9:29

them. So it's been fun

9:31

to watch them kind of go in

9:33

their different directions, see how they're trying

9:35

to achieve a win in those places.

9:38

But yeah, razor thin and it could be even thinner than

9:40

2020, which we know took

9:43

days to properly call and then

9:45

months of litigation, though I won't

9:47

call it proper litigation, whatever Rudy

9:49

Giuliani and Jenna Alice were doing

9:52

certainly wasn't proper, but it went on

9:55

for a long time. And

9:57

on the issues. So, I

12:00

love that she actually calls out the prices of

12:02

things in speeches and says, I know that your

12:04

bread is 50% more than

12:06

it used to be. But

12:08

he's, you know, people are holding onto

12:11

a bit of nostalgia about

12:13

the Trump era in that specific way. We'll

12:18

be right back. My

12:23

dad works in B2B marketing. He came

12:25

by my school for career day and

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said he was a big roe-ass man.

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podcast on logistics insights at mersc.com/insights. Hey,

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13:24

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13:50

We're talking athletes, actors, comedians,

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14:00

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14:04

sports and beyond. Follow a touch more

14:06

wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes

14:09

drop every Wednesday. Well,

14:16

the economy was strong during his era.

14:19

And the interesting thing, there's kind

14:21

of a weird dynamic in the sense that

14:24

when the price of diapers goes up,

14:26

you blame the administration. When your salary

14:29

goes up, you credit your own character

14:31

and grit. The fact

14:33

that actually now wages are increasing faster than

14:35

inflation, which is a good thing, the

14:38

administration gets no credit for it. Because

14:40

that's because I'm awesome. Whereas

14:42

when gas prices or something else go up, by

14:44

the way, I think it's just hilarious that anyone

14:46

assumes the president has any control of gas prices.

14:49

But anyway, they blame the

14:51

administration for prices going up. And

14:53

again, they see their

14:55

raises well deserved. I agree with

14:57

you. The thing I would hammer on, and

14:59

I'm curious to get your thoughts, that I

15:02

taught economics and I taught graduate micro-macroeconomics.

15:05

And one of the

15:07

few things that all economists kind of

15:09

agree on is that tariffs are

15:12

basically attacks on the consumer. And

15:15

his current line of thinking, and

15:17

I don't think the Democrats have done a very good

15:19

job of exploiting this, and it's weird to be lecturing

15:21

Republicans on this issue, because they're

15:24

usually very much anti-tariff. His

15:26

narrative is, look, these people have taken

15:28

advantage of us. And to his credit,

15:30

I do think he accurately highlighted

15:32

the asymmetry in terms of a trade relationship between

15:35

the US and China during his administration. I think

15:37

he was right on that. But

15:39

he's saying all these firms, all these countries are

15:41

taking advantage of us. We're gonna

15:43

put in some instances, a hundred percent

15:45

tariff on their products. And

15:47

what will happen according to Donald Trump? It'll

15:49

make our products more competitive. There's less

15:52

competitive, because theirs will be more expensive.

15:54

Meaning more jobs will return to the

15:57

US, because we'll be more competitive relative

15:59

to these foreign. difference

20:00

between political asylum and actually being

20:02

in a mental asylum. So

20:05

I think that these things are

20:07

actually with Trump, like always

20:09

like the most base thing that they could

20:12

possibly be. And I hope that she

20:14

flips the script on it and talks about how effective

20:16

they have been in using economic

20:18

sanctions versus penalizing the American

20:20

public with tariffs. So

20:24

let's talk a little bit about childcare because I'm not

20:26

sure people really

20:28

understand what are

20:30

the policies on. So

20:32

basically Trump is saying, I'll find a

20:34

way to create additional revenues such that

20:37

we have better childcare because childcare is childcare

20:39

according to Trump. And he was trying to

20:42

give the notion that I think it's

20:44

important, I'm in favor of it, and

20:46

I'm gonna raise the money for it. We need by

20:48

taxing these nations

20:51

with their asymmetric unfair

20:53

trade relationship. What is,

20:55

can you outline cuz I don't know the answer,

20:57

what is sort of Harris's plan around childcare? Yeah,

21:00

well, the most important part

21:03

of it is obviously the paid family leave as

21:06

the baseline for everything bringing back

21:08

the child tax credit, which cut

21:10

poverty in America by 50%. It's

21:14

astounding that that happened in a couple

21:16

of years and something that people are

21:18

really hankering to bring- Poverty across children.

21:20

Across children, yeah, child poverty, yes, no.

21:24

And then there's the stuff that

21:27

comes in with walls as

21:29

well with the school lunches. We have

21:31

universal 3K and pre-K. I'm

21:33

treating this as a bigger bubble of

21:35

just raising children than just the childcare

21:37

front, but they also wanna have universal

21:39

daycare, which is something that

21:41

JD Vance, of course, has railed against in

21:43

some unearthed clip from 2021. It's

21:46

kind of amazing that he won his race for

21:49

Senate. There have been a lot

21:51

of people that have been picking on Tim Ryan. Why

21:53

were you not going after him with all of

21:55

these horrendous things that he'd said? And Tim

21:59

Ryan's team has to- I

30:00

think it should be, I don't want to say difficult to

30:02

start a business, but I don't think it should be easier.

30:05

I think there'd be easier ways to

30:07

get to this. The thing I

30:10

really don't like about Harris's economic

30:13

policy is around housing.

30:16

Whereas if you're looking to buy a house, and I think if you're a

30:18

first-time buyer or whatever, you get $25,000. To

30:20

me, that is just massively

30:23

inflationary. That just means starter homes everywhere go

30:25

up by $25,000, if not more, because you

30:27

can borrow

30:30

more against that. I

30:32

don't understand how that helps. I love

30:34

her ideas around making it

30:37

easier to issue more housing permits. Probably the reason

30:39

housing prices have gone up so much is we

30:41

took housing permits out of the hands of local

30:43

officials and put them into the hands

30:45

of homeowners who get very concerned with traffic once

30:47

they have a home. But

30:49

I don't see how giving $25,000 to

30:52

new homeowners is anything but

30:55

inflationary and just going to do exactly the

30:57

opposite of what they want to do, and

31:00

that makes housing less affordable. What

31:02

are your thoughts? This is a tough

31:04

one, because I feel like it's a

31:06

total campaign season policy, right? And everyone

31:08

wants the good feels, and

31:11

they want to hear all the

31:13

right things about home ownership and

31:15

how important it is to the

31:17

quality of life for everyday Americans,

31:19

right? You have better schools, safer

31:21

communities, more small businesses, your favorite.

31:24

I guess you said there were going to be too many,

31:27

but you want people that are investing in their community and

31:29

small businesses the way that they're doing that. And

31:31

so it sounds really sexy to say, I'm going

31:33

to help you do this. Now, everybody knows that

31:35

just means the price of houses are going to

31:37

go up another $25,000, right? So

31:40

if you're buying a $400,000 house, it's going to be $425,000. What

31:46

will be interesting to see what the

31:48

banks are doing with all of this, if

31:50

it actually goes through as a policy? And

31:52

I feel like it might be one that

31:54

falls by the wayside if and when she

31:56

gets elected. But

32:00

I've... I think it's also one of them to

32:02

kind of return to the point of being here

32:04

in this kind of raging moderate

32:06

middle when you see how aggravated people have

32:08

gotten about student debt relief even, which

32:11

is something that I think you can make even

32:13

a stronger argument for helping people out with, maybe

32:15

not wiping out hundreds of thousands of dollars of

32:17

debt, but certainly for people who have had Pell

32:19

grants, people

32:21

who were scammed 100% to get their money

32:24

back. But, you know,

32:26

folks who went to do something and

32:28

took on this big undertaking, maybe they wanted to

32:30

go be a doctor and they don't go to

32:32

one of the medical schools where Bloomberg's just going

32:34

to wipe out your debt, that they should get

32:36

a bit of help there. I think that resonates

32:39

better with the American public than getting just $25,000

32:41

towards you being able to buy a house. I

32:46

would push back a little bit in that as someone

32:49

who borrowed money, as someone who's

32:51

deeply involved in education. I've

32:53

just always had trouble with the idea of two-thirds of

32:55

the Americans that didn't have the opportunity to go to

32:57

college, bailing out the one-third that did.

32:59

So let me be clear. I think if

33:02

you're going to go be a doctor in a rural community

33:04

or a low-income community, or you're going to go into nursing

33:06

or teaching where we're having a tough time attracting people, some

33:09

sort of federal programs to release student debt is important.

33:12

I would like to see my school, NYU, and every other

33:14

school be on the hook for 20%, 30%, 50% of bad

33:16

debt. So

33:18

we stopped loaning $200,000 to philosophy majors who go

33:21

on to be baristas and then can't pay

33:23

this debt back. It should be

33:25

dischargable in bankruptcy. But

33:27

there's something uncomfortable about... You

33:30

could argue the third of the American public that gets

33:32

to go to college is arguably the most advantaged third.

33:35

And there's some really terrible situations where me and

33:37

my colleagues prey on people because we want to

33:40

make more money. And that

33:42

needs to stop. But three-quarters

33:44

of a trillion dollar bailout,

33:46

what Biden proposed of

33:49

student debt to me... And the worst thing

33:51

about what I hate about student debt relief

33:54

is it shrinks the tumor of student debt, but

33:57

it doesn't go after the cancer. And the cancer is

33:59

the following. we

34:01

are just charging too much goddamn money. I

34:03

think it sucks to be a grownup. And I

34:05

think the people on the hook for student loans

34:07

should be really angry at their university and

34:10

that we need to stop this torrent,

34:13

this typhoon of cheap credit that

34:15

keeps driving up the

34:17

cost of education. So I really

34:19

don't like student loan bailouts.

34:21

And my sense is they were found to

34:23

be illegal. They were, yeah. Well,

34:26

there are ways around it. Are

34:28

there? I mean, there

34:30

are policies, there are Department of Education

34:32

policies, which is how the Biden-Harris administration

34:34

has been able to give

34:36

back so much that

34:38

allow for it. But yes, I mean, the

34:40

Supreme Court gave it a big hell no

34:43

to just wiping out people's debts. I

34:47

think as an extension of what you were saying though, you

34:49

know, school, yes, it's too expensive. And I have

34:52

two little kids with the beginnings of their 529s.

34:55

And I just can't really fathom how

34:58

much money is going to have to be

35:00

in those accounts for them to be able to go to the

35:02

four-year college- A million bucks at this point. That's

35:05

even worse than what my financial advisor said. For

35:08

both of them, only half a million each. Unless they

35:11

come to NYU and then it's more than that. Well,

35:13

if the podcast really works out, then everything's gonna be

35:15

fine. There you go. You're set, you're done. After

35:18

this one episode. But I

35:21

feel like it's time, especially with, if

35:23

it's going to be Connella the prosecutor, and if she's

35:25

going to talk about things like price gouging, if she's

35:28

gonna talk about her experience going after

35:30

the big banks in California, I

35:33

wouldn't mind some sort of policy

35:35

platform about going after universities. And

35:38

especially these ones that are sitting on

35:40

endowments that are, you know, being propped

35:42

up by investing

35:44

groups, you know, that are doing their two and 20s

35:47

or whatever it is. And they're sitting on

35:49

billions of dollars and they're not helping students

35:51

out. Maybe because they know that the administration

35:53

might do that in the end, or most

35:55

likely because they don't care. And

35:58

they're like, well, you're gonna have a degree. says

36:00

Harvard or whatever it is. And now state schools

36:02

are even, you know, for a

36:04

regular person, astronomically expensive. But I would love

36:06

to see that. And I think that would

36:08

be popular across the board. You know, if

36:10

you're looking for a policy that everyone can

36:12

glom onto, if you said, I'm gonna

36:14

go after the universities that are stealing

36:16

your money and giving you in some cases

36:19

worthless degrees, you're gonna end up like the

36:21

barista that you were mentioning. I,

36:23

you know, landslide. Stay

36:27

with us. Donald

36:32

John Trump isn't the most disciplined

36:34

politician in the world. For

36:36

evidence, take a look at how he's run

36:38

against Kamala Harris for a month or so. He's

36:42

called her dumb. I don't have a lot

36:44

of respect for her. Intelligence. Beautiful. He looks

36:47

like the most beautiful actress ever to live.

36:49

A communist. All we have to do is

36:51

define our opponent as being a communist or

36:54

a socialist or somebody. He thinks she laughs

36:56

weird. Have you heard her laugh? That

36:58

is the laugh of a crazy

37:00

person. That she'll cause the stock market to

37:03

crash. In one post, he said, quote, stock

37:05

markets are crashing, job numbers are terrible. We

37:07

are heading to World War III and we

37:09

have two of the most incomitant, quote,

37:12

leaders in history. And that she was

37:14

mean to Mike Pence. The way she

37:16

treated Mike Pence was horrible. It's unclear

37:18

if any of these insults are getting

37:21

Trump closer to a second term as

37:23

president. So on Today Explained, we're gonna

37:25

ask, what would, how Trump could win?

37:28

Coming up on the show. This

37:31

week on Prodigy Markets, we speak with

37:34

Brad Gerstner, founder, chair and CEO of

37:36

Altimeter Capital. We discuss his reaction to

37:38

Nvidia's earnings, the current landscape of the

37:41

AI industry and the details behind his

37:43

new initiative, Invest America. Getting

37:45

kids in the game from birth

37:48

dramatically increases financial literacy, increases the

37:50

probability they'll graduate from high school

37:52

and college, increases the likelihood they'll

37:54

own a home, increases the likelihood

37:56

they'll start a business. And

37:59

so, all. All of those things

38:01

are social goods that make this

38:03

NPV positive, net present value positive

38:05

in a huge way. You can

38:07

find that conversation and many others

38:09

exclusively on the Prof G Markets

38:11

podcast. What's

38:14

up everybody? I'm Cam Hayward, NFL

38:16

man of the year, six time

38:18

pro bowler, hopefully more pro bowls

38:20

and Steelers team captain. Tap in and

38:22

listen now to my podcast is not just football.

38:25

Every week we'll break down everything from NFL rumors

38:28

to low island while sitting down with

38:30

guests like Michael Keaton and Lil Wayne.

38:33

It's a football-ish show that

38:35

you should listen to now. Subscribe

38:37

now on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

38:42

What are some of the other central points of her

38:44

economic plan? I feel as if she hasn't done a

38:47

great job so far. And

38:49

it feels like quite frankly, a lot of giveaways. What

38:53

about on the revenue side? They're going to raise

38:55

taxes. There's a wealth tax. What else

38:57

are they planning to do? Trump has said he's going to

39:00

tear off the shit out of everybody and that's going to raise a

39:02

ton of money. How is she planning

39:04

to increase revenues other than a wealth tax? It's

39:07

a lot of just

39:09

investing in the community and

39:11

regular. The corporate rate, I

39:13

don't think we'll go up further than it is. I

39:16

think they're toying with, and I

39:18

need to get back on the website, the

39:20

individual rate for the top, the top top.

39:23

Now we're getting into the tippy, tippy, tippy,

39:25

up versus the tippy, tippy, tippy top. I

39:28

think that they are, and this is where

39:30

she's going to rely back on actually the

39:32

good economic news out of the Biden-Harris administration.

39:35

She has to tow that line of this

39:37

is what I think was really good that

39:39

we did. This is what I think wasn't

39:41

so great and I would have advised differently.

39:44

And we'll see how she does that at the debate. So

39:47

before we wrap up here, we have to talk

39:49

about the debate. It's being held, we're taping on

39:51

Monday. Give us, just be

39:53

curious, just riff on what you think

39:55

about this debate, what you're expecting, what

39:57

you think each candidate needs to do.

39:59

to do and any predictions you might

40:01

have. So Trump

40:03

needs to just act like a human

40:05

and that's always been the bar for

40:07

him. And he's failed a majority

40:10

of the time, and I'm

40:12

looking forward to that. There was the big fight about

40:15

whether the mics would be muted or not. And

40:17

countless team obviously wanted them unmuted so

40:19

they could see people really

40:22

coming after her, especially

40:24

when you have the gender dynamic and

40:26

the size differential. A lot of people have been focusing

40:28

on that because she's quite short. And

40:32

he was six four before he started shrinking. I'm

40:34

not quite sure what he is now, but he's

40:37

a big guy. So I think

40:39

for her, and we touched on this a little

40:41

bit earlier in the podcast, a

40:43

lot of people don't feel that they know her,

40:45

especially people who are in the battleground state. So

40:47

I think she's gonna do a decent amount of

40:50

the bio stuff again, but not

40:53

in the mamala way. This

40:56

was what my background is and this is

40:59

how I brought those skills to the vice

41:01

presidency, Senate vice presidency, and now hopefully

41:03

as presidency, and that I am ready on

41:05

day one. And there's a

41:07

new add out focusing on foreign policy where

41:10

I actually thought she was the strongest at

41:12

the DNC in her speech. I thought it

41:14

was incredible. As commander in chief, I

41:17

will ensure America always

41:19

has the strongest, most lethal

41:21

fighting force in the world.

41:25

She's gonna be using the contrast of all

41:27

these folks that worked in foreign

41:29

policy, the generals, et cetera,

41:32

for Trump, who are now saying, I

41:34

can't endorse him. He's absolutely out of

41:36

his mind. We're gonna be less safe.

41:38

She's gonna lean into what a better

41:40

force for good America will be if

41:42

she is the next president.

41:45

But I really hope, and I don't think that we've talked about

41:47

this yet in

41:50

general, like she's not playing identity politics

41:52

at all, which I think is part

41:54

of why she's resonating as

41:56

well as she has and has gotten this to a

41:58

neck and neck race when Biden. and it was on

42:01

his way, I think, to a pretty resounding

42:03

defeat. She never talks about being a woman.

42:06

She never talks about being a person of

42:08

color. She's just Kamala Harris.

42:11

And I think that he, well, he

42:14

would obviously love to be able to be as misogynistic

42:16

and sexist and potentially

42:18

racist as possible. But watching her kind

42:21

of steer clear of those little potholes

42:23

will be interesting. I hope she can

42:25

keep that up. And

42:28

I hope that the moderators really push him

42:30

on explaining things. This is probably

42:32

one of the biggest uphill battles that

42:34

I have on the five, is

42:38

people treat Donald Trump's

42:41

presence. The fact that he's actually just out

42:43

there standing in front of a podium or

42:45

quote unquote taking questions is the fact that

42:47

he's being transparent. But he's not actually explaining

42:50

anything. And now the policy pages are such

42:52

a wonderful encapsulation of this. So Kamala Harris

42:54

has all of her policies with the drop

42:56

downs that explain them. And Donald Trump just

42:58

has a list of his policies. And

43:01

some of them are like deport everyone. Well,

43:04

how are you gonna go around and find 15

43:06

million people that you're gonna throw out of the

43:08

country? So I hope

43:12

that he's really pushed on detail because I

43:14

think that she's pretty wonky

43:16

and will be able to handle that

43:19

well. But she just needs

43:21

to reassure like tens of thousands of

43:23

people that it's gonna be

43:25

okay in Pennsylvania is really important for this. And it's a topic for next

43:28

week cuz I know you have a ton to

43:30

say about it. But I was reading about all

43:32

of the ads that Trump is running in Pennsylvania

43:34

and how they're directed

43:37

at young men. She's

43:40

doing much worse with men than Biden did

43:42

in that New York Times Sienna poll, especially

43:44

white working class men. And

43:46

he's just hammering that. And

43:48

so it'll be interesting to see if

43:50

things like that come up as well. So

43:53

I believe that we're a much more looks this nation

43:55

and as individuals are much more

43:57

looks this some we wanna admit. I think

43:59

looks just. aesthetics. When

44:02

people saw the Reagan-Carter debate, when they

44:04

watched it on TV, they thought Reagan

44:06

won. And when they listened to it,

44:08

they thought Carter won. And

44:11

JFK let them put makeup on him.

44:13

And anyone who watched it thought Kennedy

44:15

won. And anyone who listened to it

44:17

thought Nixon won. I think looks are

44:19

important. And I think that plays huge

44:21

advantage to her. She's an attractive, non-white,

44:23

young woman. I didn't know she

44:25

was short. I've never met her. She actually

44:28

looks kind of... I assume she'll be wearing

44:30

heels, but the fact that she also is

44:32

wearing Converse a lot, you know, she's really

44:34

like, she's a little pistol. Yeah. Really?

44:36

I didn't know that. I thought she was kind

44:38

of average height, so to speak. By the way,

44:40

he claims he's 6'3", 215. John Elway is 6'3",

44:42

215. And so John Elway and Donald Trump, yeah,

44:48

they're mirror images of each other. Same diet.

44:50

I've heard the cheeseburgers. Yeah, physically. Diet Coke

44:52

and ice cream. Yeah. Physically,

44:54

yeah. So I think she wins

44:57

just moment one on that

44:59

count. I

45:03

have a thesis here and I want you to... I want to get

45:05

your reaction to it. And that is... And this plays

45:08

into my bias that young men

45:10

are the only special interest group that have

45:12

been totally ignored recently, who

45:14

are really struggling. And I

45:16

think old men are going Trump. Young

45:19

women are going Harris. I do

45:21

think similar to just as the election will be

45:23

won by a handful of states, I think the

45:26

overlooked crowd here that is sort of up for

45:28

grabs is young men, because there's

45:30

a bit of a myth that young men are all

45:33

fucked up in the head and they're in cells

45:35

and they're angry, and they're attracted to the manosphere

45:37

and Trump. And I think what

45:39

some of the research shows is

45:41

that it's not that they're moving towards the

45:43

Republican party. Gen Z and millennial men actually

45:47

believe just as much in gender

45:49

equality as their female

45:51

counterparts. They're actually quite progressive around

45:53

gender equality. I think what's

45:55

happening is they're not moving towards the Republican party. I

45:57

think they're moving away from the Democratic party. And

46:00

the thing that just blew my mind, Jess,

46:02

was I went on the dnc.org website and

46:05

it has a section that says who we

46:07

serve. And it

46:09

lists 16 demographic groups, everyone from

46:11

the disabled to veterans to immigrants

46:14

to the disabled to Pacific

46:17

Islanders to blacks to women,

46:20

rural Americans, farm, it just, by

46:23

my calculations, they listed somewhere between 70 and

46:25

80% of America. The

46:29

only people they didn't list were

46:31

men. And when

46:33

you are in this, I think the Democratic

46:35

Party is struggling with the same problem that

46:37

the DEI apparatus at universities is struggling with.

46:40

And that is when you

46:42

claim to be explicitly advocating

46:44

and advancing the interests of

46:48

75% of your population, you aren't

46:50

advantaging them, you're discriminating against the 25%.

46:54

And I think that's how a lot of young

46:57

men feel. They just, quite frankly, don't feel seen

47:00

by the Democratic Party. And I don't think

47:02

it would be hard to recapture them. I

47:04

think they are very much pro-life. A

47:07

lot of them have more progressive inclinations. A lot of

47:09

them are turned off by Trump. But I

47:11

think at a minimum, they need to say, all right, what

47:13

are you doing to help my community that

47:15

is killing themselves at four times the rate,

47:18

is addicted at three times the rate, is

47:21

less likely to go to college, is having

47:23

trouble finding a mate because women are dating

47:25

older, quite frankly. Is

47:27

it okay? I just feel like

47:29

a little bit of something, a recognition

47:32

of the problem, vocational programming, expanded

47:35

freshman seats, national service,

47:38

even taking a victory lap around the Infrastructure Act,

47:40

which supposedly the 70% of the jobs are going

47:42

to be for men without college degrees, but they

47:44

don't want to talk about it because they're worried

47:46

it will ruffle the feathers of the far left.

47:48

What do you think about the idea of young

47:51

men being the swing voters up for grabs

47:53

here? I like it. I mean,

47:55

it's a great headline and it'll get you

47:57

a lot of buzz, which we're always

47:59

looking for in life. But I

48:01

think it's also... I think it's true. And

48:03

I actually think it's even more

48:06

base than what you're saying. I think

48:08

that if you said, we don't think

48:10

that you're bound, that

48:12

it would be enough. Like... Yeah, we

48:14

don't think you're toxic. Right. Like, I

48:18

don't fundamentally think that you're broken

48:20

because you're a white dude. And

48:23

it's been interesting, you know, with my

48:26

friends, we all have little kids, and

48:28

a lot of them who

48:30

had sons who

48:32

are worried about what culture

48:35

is going to be like for them. You

48:37

know, these are going to be kids who

48:40

have enough, who go to great schools, either

48:42

a good private school or great public school

48:44

that they're zoned for, are on their way

48:46

to college. They're going to be raised in

48:50

loving households with dads

48:52

that support their moms. You know,

48:54

all the good things, right? They're going to be

48:56

pro-choice. They're going to care about the climate. They're

48:59

going to think that there are too many guns

49:01

on the street and that school shootings are one

49:03

of the most abhorrent stains on

49:05

American culture that there is. But

49:08

they're not going to be spoken to as

49:10

equals. They're going to have to

49:12

do double the work, triple the work to

49:14

be a quote, ally in

49:16

the right way. And I don't

49:19

know if you remember this t-shirt that was

49:21

going around that you would see, like, the

49:23

future is female. And I've seen less of

49:25

it lately, but it really did... What about

49:28

books called The End of Men? Well,

49:31

that too, as the

49:33

corollary to the t-shirt, like, buy my t-shirt and

49:35

then buy this book. And

49:38

I do think, you know, I don't

49:40

know if you're following that horrendous trial in France

49:44

about the 70-year-old woman whose

49:46

husband let dozens of

49:48

men come and rape his wife, drugged

49:51

her. And I think it's

49:54

really interesting in context with, like, the

49:56

default position that men are so bad.

49:58

Obviously, that... as the most extreme case

50:00

in the entire world. But when you

50:03

hear about things like that, and you're

50:05

not gonna hear about a woman that

50:07

did something like that, I

50:11

mean, maybe there's some apparition example of it,

50:13

but you look at things like that and you

50:15

see it just being pumped into the culture

50:17

that men are the ones that are capable

50:19

of these kinds of things, right? Like men are

50:21

the ones that would be doing the bad

50:23

things. I

50:25

think it permeates further than

50:27

it should. Yeah,

50:29

I think it's a big opportunity. So just as

50:32

we wrap up here, who

50:34

do you think regarding the

50:36

debate, who do you think wins

50:38

and why? What do you think the narrative will

50:40

be? Make a prediction, who wins and why? And

50:42

then I'll give you my thoughts. I

50:44

think Kamala wins because I

50:46

think that she has, since

50:48

she's taken over the nomination, understood

50:51

the task at hand, which is

50:53

to message to these raging moderates,

50:56

these swing state voters, to

50:58

make her somebody that is hopeful,

51:01

joyful, and progressive in

51:03

the progress sense of the word, not

51:05

in the liberal sense of the word,

51:08

and that she will contextualize

51:10

a vision for America that's more palatable

51:12

to the widest swath of people. But

51:15

for Trump supporters, he will do fine, but she's

51:18

the one who has a ceiling that

51:20

can continue to grow, and we know that he

51:22

caps out about where he is right

51:24

now. I like it,

51:26

I hope you're right. My prediction is that he

51:28

wins by virtue of the fact that I think

51:30

expectations have been set so high for

51:32

her and so low for him. And

51:35

also, I think

51:37

the coronation, not competition, I don't think

51:39

she's battle tested. I think when you

51:41

have candidates go through the primary process,

51:44

they are quick on their feet, they know how to deflect

51:46

criticism, they know how to see a weak

51:49

point and go after it. I

51:52

don't think she's, I think she's out of practice.

51:54

Anyways, we shall see. Well,

51:56

I hope you're well-being in the nicest possible way. I hope I'm wrong

51:59

as well, I mean, that's sincerely. Anyways,

52:01

that's all for the inaugural

52:03

episode of Raging Moderates. We're

52:05

raging, Jess. We're raging. Raged.

52:08

Our producer, raging. Our producers, Caroline Shagren

52:10

and Drew Burroughs is our technical director.

52:13

You can find Raging Moderates on

52:15

the PropG Pod every Tuesday. Please

52:17

subscribe. We will see you next

52:19

week. Thanks everybody for tuning in. Have a great rest

52:22

of the week, Jess. Thank you.