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Welcome to the rest of the
2:30
politics question time with me, Rory Stewart.
2:32
And with me, honest to Campbell. And yes,
2:34
Roy, we had a very, very... and
4:01
Farage has said he doesn't think that's
4:03
a good idea and has said he
4:05
doesn't want to do with Tommy Robinson
4:07
so there's a sort of policy disagreement.
4:10
Then Lowe gave an interview in the
4:12
mail in which he said that Farage
4:14
was suffering from Messiah Complex and
4:16
didn't have any policies and somewhere
4:18
along the line and one wonders
4:21
whether one finds Dominic Cummings his
4:23
hand in this Elon Musk began
4:25
taking a bizarre interest in the
4:27
details of... reform party politics saying
4:30
that Nigel Farage wasn't the
4:32
person to run reform and instead
4:34
he started promoting Rupert Lowe and
4:36
the response to this or maybe it's
4:38
not a response to this but it certainly
4:40
appears to be a response to this is
4:43
that Rupert Lowe has now found not only
4:45
that the whip has been stripped from him
4:47
by your friend Lee Anderson, the whip
4:49
of the Reform Party, but also
4:51
he has been accused of harassing
4:53
his office staff, a Casey has
4:55
been employed, and rather Buzal, he's
4:57
also been accused of physically assaulting
4:59
the chairman of the party, and
5:01
given both he and the chairman of the
5:03
party, on the surface seem rather mild-mannered
5:06
men, this vision of their
5:08
fisticuffs is also intriguing. Have
5:10
I misunderstood the story? Now
5:12
I think you've pretty much got there.
5:14
Just on the staff, the other room
5:17
in my life, he sent me a
5:19
thing this morning, have I seen this?
5:21
And it's a open letter that's been
5:23
written by Rupert Lowe's staff saying what
5:26
a lovely man he is and he's
5:28
never seen any bullying, he never seen
5:30
any intimidation blah blah blah blah blah.
5:32
I must admit, I know Rupert Lowe
5:35
a little bit because when he was
5:37
chairman of Southampton football club, whenever Bernie
5:39
played there, he always... Quite seem to
5:41
quite like having lunch with me before I
5:44
wandered off to the to the way end
5:46
and I think I recorded in my diaries
5:48
that I don't think I've ever met anybody
5:50
Quite as right wing as this guy. He's
5:53
very very very right wing on the economy
5:55
and all sorts of other things And last
5:57
night Rory I was Matt Ford the comedian
5:59
who was very very ill not long ago
6:01
but he's now back in action and I
6:04
was a guest on his live show last
6:06
night at the Duchess Theatre and I've got
6:08
to say he mentioned Lee Anderson who's not
6:10
my friend that was a joke I know
6:12
Matt Ford's Lee Anderson is one of the
6:14
best impersonations I've seen for a long long
6:16
time but he was talking about this thing
6:19
he said that Elon Musk taking
6:21
an active interest in the leadership
6:23
of a party with five MPs
6:25
in the UK. He says, it's
6:27
like Mark Zuckerberg suddenly decided, I'm
6:29
going to decide who's the next
6:31
leader of Sinn Fay. There is
6:33
something utterly bizarre about it, but
6:35
I think you're right, I think
6:37
what it's about, I think, look
6:39
I don't know because I'm not
6:41
talked to either of them about
6:43
it, but I wonder if partly
6:45
it is the Messiah thing, Nigel
6:47
Farage, not without reason, thinks that
6:49
he is... the prime driver of
6:51
the support for reform UK, just
6:53
as he was for the previous
6:55
parties that fell apart after a
6:57
while. He was a prime mover
6:59
in the Brexit referendum and a
7:01
very effective campaign in the Brexit
7:03
referendum, which is why we should
7:05
never let him forget it. And
7:07
Rupalo does seem, this is an
7:09
extraordinary thing, he does seem on
7:11
issues like immigration. to be even
7:13
further to the right than Nigel
7:15
Farage and his court. And I
7:17
think what might be going on
7:20
here is that Nigel Farage is
7:22
watching how the Conservatives are
7:24
operating under Kemi Badenock and I
7:26
think you and I both think the
7:29
Kemi Badenock probably won't last very long.
7:31
But her strategy seems to be I
7:33
can take over reform votes by being
7:35
a bit more like reform. I think
7:38
he's resisting that by saying I'm going
7:40
to stay pretty much where I am.
7:42
I'm a sort of right-wing conservative. I
7:45
rejected Tommy Robinson very deliberately to say
7:47
I'm not extreme right. This is another
7:49
opportunity to say that. Now the risk
7:52
for him, and I once when I've
7:54
told you before when I had a
7:56
long chat with him at question time, he
7:58
said the thing about musk. about the money.
8:01
It's the fact that he's very
8:03
very popular with young men and
8:05
we're targeting young men. And the
8:07
members special that we did with
8:09
Bruce Anderson, the Canadian Strachism Polster,
8:11
he said Pierre Polyevo will be
8:13
really worried at the moment about
8:15
upsetting Musk because Musk does have
8:17
a certain... it's not overwhelming but
8:19
he's... if Polyevo came out against
8:21
him he risks losing support and
8:23
I think Farage may be worrying
8:25
about that too. Yeah, well, Farage
8:27
is in the classic problem that
8:29
all right-wing parties across Europe are
8:31
facing, which is what happens when
8:33
somebody tries to out-flank you further
8:35
on the right. So obviously the
8:37
Conservatives have that problem with reform,
8:39
but now he's got the problem
8:41
that Rupert Lowe is saying, I'm
8:43
going to deport a million people,
8:45
Tommy Robinson, Zomata, and Farage then
8:47
has to decide, can he hold
8:49
whatever the weird world for it
8:51
is the... the center of the
8:53
far right against the right of
8:55
the far right. The far right
8:57
centrist's, the left of the far
8:59
right. It's like people like me
9:01
who describe themselves as lower up
9:03
a middle class. Anyway, so Farage
9:05
is in this world and of
9:07
course the conventional wisdom from political
9:09
scientists and the 20s and 30s
9:11
is don't endlessly move further to
9:13
the right because that basically just
9:15
gives the fascists their win. And
9:17
that if you hold your ground,
9:19
you are able to resist that.
9:21
So good on for us in
9:23
a way, you know, the last
9:25
thing I want to say is
9:27
good on for us because in
9:29
many ways I think he's an
9:31
absolute buffoon and I think he'd
9:34
be a terrible Prime Minister and
9:36
he was grossly irresponsible in Brexit.
9:38
But I am at least pleased
9:40
that he is not going full
9:42
AFD and that he's trying to
9:44
hold the line and I'm very
9:46
disturbed that Lo is trying to
9:48
out flank him with Musk's support.
9:50
And you know, Lee Anderson being
9:52
the chief heir, one of the
9:54
points Matt Ford was making last
9:56
night is that It's quite something
9:58
when Lee Anderson, who's got a
10:00
bit of a reputation as something
10:02
of a bruiser himself, is the
10:04
guy who's telling Rupert low that
10:06
you know your language is a
10:08
bit inappropriate and your conduct towards
10:10
women and all this sort of
10:12
stuff. But it seems to be
10:14
a proper kind of internal meltdown.
10:16
And of course, the fact that
10:18
they've only got five MPs, they've
10:20
now only got four, which is
10:22
exactly the same number as the
10:24
Greens. Is it too much to
10:26
expect that the media might start
10:28
to pay a bit of attention
10:30
to the Greens as well as
10:32
these four? And of course one
10:34
of them, this guy James went
10:36
murder. He's another one with a
10:38
touch of violence in his past
10:40
as it were. So a pretty
10:42
run lot I think we can
10:44
say. Can I just practical politics
10:46
sense? So the reason why this
10:48
isn't just a comedy show is
10:50
that reform did in the polls
10:52
at one point. come ahead of
10:54
Labour and Conservatives and in the
10:56
Welsh elections coming, reform again seems
10:58
to be in a strong position,
11:00
that's a proportional representation system, not
11:02
first-pass-to-pose, so they can do even
11:04
better than in the UK elections.
11:06
And we've got this by-election coming
11:09
in Roncorn because a Labour MP
11:11
managed to... Just again, sorry for
11:13
listeners, people remember John Prescott punching
11:15
someone and Mike Ainsbury has punched
11:17
someone. And what's the difference? What
11:19
was it that Mike Ainsbury did
11:21
that led to his resignation the
11:23
way that Prescott didn't resign? What
11:25
was the context of this? Well,
11:27
he got convicted for a very
11:29
violent offence. John Press got a
11:31
punch, good left jab, because a
11:33
guy had smacked an egg into
11:35
the side of his face and
11:37
I think most people thought self-defense.
11:39
an argument with a constituent in
11:41
the street, he punched him and
11:43
then while the guy was lying
11:45
on the ground, he punched him
11:47
several times again. So it was
11:49
a pretty violent thing. But okay,
11:51
now by elections coming. And presumably
11:53
this is going to be a
11:55
really important, or interesting anyway for
11:57
those who are interested in UK
11:59
policy. on judging what's happening with
12:01
reform, what's happening with the Conservatives,
12:03
whether Starmer has really got to
12:05
bounce out of what I think
12:07
many people feel has been pretty
12:09
good handling of Russia Ukraine so
12:11
far, which we can talk about
12:13
a bit later in the show.
12:15
King Starmer has definitely had a
12:17
bounce from his handling of this,
12:19
of the Russia Ukraine situation. Reform,
12:21
I think, were chomping at the
12:23
bit for a few by-elections. This
12:25
I think will damage them. Interestingly,
12:27
I've been talking... to some people
12:29
up there who, not just in
12:31
that seat, but in other parts
12:33
of the North West, who say
12:35
that the Conservatives really are completely
12:37
flatlining, that there's no sense of
12:39
people wanting to go back to
12:41
the Conservatives. And I don't think
12:44
Kimmy Baden was really giving them...
12:46
much reasons to be to be
12:48
positive by that. But just on
12:50
reform, the other thing that's the
12:52
Farage was very keen to sort
12:54
of emphasize when we had our
12:56
long chat in the green room
12:58
in Lincoln was he was singing
13:00
the praises of this guy Zia
13:02
Yusuf, the chair, and this is
13:04
a guy former Goldman Sachs, you
13:06
know how much the the populists
13:08
hate these globalists who work for
13:10
big banks like Goldman Sachs, well
13:12
this guy work for about, was
13:14
Goldman Sachs, then he built up
13:16
his own company, flogged it for
13:18
more than 30 million quid, big
13:20
donor to the party, but what
13:22
Farage said to me is he's
13:24
absolutely professionalising the party. He said
13:26
I've never had a professionally run
13:28
party, this guy's doing it. He's
13:30
got Nick Kandy, this sort of
13:32
super wealthy, sovereign individual property developer,
13:34
who's got one of the big,
13:36
if you go to one high
13:38
part, you'll see this extraordinarily large
13:40
sort of property he's got there.
13:42
he's promised seven figure sums so
13:44
he's got some they've got money
13:46
and interestingly on the money Roy
13:48
the the New York Times shout
13:50
out for your favorite newspaper they
13:52
did a big analysis of reforms
13:54
funding and they were to have
13:56
40% of their donations came from
13:58
basic climate change deniers fossil fuels
14:00
marketing industries and a lot of
14:02
the most of the more than
14:04
two-thirds of the donations came from
14:06
millionaires and multi-millionaires. So I hope
14:08
reform voters start to understand this
14:10
is not exactly man of the
14:12
people's stuff that we're talking about.
14:14
Let's also watch the space of
14:16
Paul Marshall who we've talked about
14:18
on the show before but he
14:21
is this very interesting individual I
14:23
mean massively massively wealthy has this
14:25
huge office on Sloan Street with
14:27
giant wooden elephants in the window
14:29
that you can see. who began
14:31
as a Lib Dem funder, then
14:33
came to my notice as a
14:35
big backer of Michael Gove, has
14:37
this magazine called Unheard, which has
14:39
now acquired the spectator, is sponsoring
14:41
some of these right-wing conferences in
14:43
Britain, seems to be sounding a
14:45
little bit more as though he
14:47
comes from the fundamentalist Christian right.
14:49
That I think is a space
14:51
worth watching, and the direction where
14:53
the spectator goes, because spectator... It's
14:55
now edited not by Fraser Nelson,
14:57
but by Michael Gove. And it's
14:59
going to be interesting to see
15:01
what happens there. It's not a
15:03
hugely influential except within right-wing circles
15:05
where everybody reads it. It was
15:07
an interesting magazine in the past
15:09
because along with sort of provocative
15:12
right-wing reporting, there were great book
15:14
reviews, there was some really funny
15:16
travel columns, there was low life,
15:18
which was this sort of fantastic
15:20
Jeffrey Bernard. column about his sort
15:22
of general collapse. And the question
15:24
is, will Gove be able to
15:26
sustain the kind of variety and
15:28
diversity in the spectator, or is
15:30
it in risk of becoming a
15:32
slightly more monotonous poor martial mouthpiece?
15:34
You know, we're going down to
15:36
media ownership what Jeff Bizos is
15:38
doing with the Washington Post. Yeah.
15:41
And I'm beginning to see signs
15:43
in the spectator. that they're beginning
15:45
to get a little bit predictable.
15:47
They're beginning to develop a rather
15:49
kind of standard set of enemies
15:51
or other standard set of friends
15:53
and some of that kind of...
15:55
liveliness is vanishing. Well, Mr. Gove
15:57
probably wasn't much behind his desk
15:59
yesterday because he was giving evidence
16:01
to the COVID inquiry about some
16:03
of the dodgy contracts and he
16:05
was given quite a hard time.
16:07
He was very govian in his
16:09
response. He did that thing, isn't
16:12
he? Whenever he mentions, you know,
16:14
it always is, for whom I
16:16
have the utmost respect or for
16:18
whom I have considerable regard, as
16:20
he's about to let sort of
16:22
say, why they're terrible, terrible human
16:24
beings. But isn't that interesting, how...
16:26
We're five years on from COVID.
16:28
Most countries have had their COVID
16:30
inquiries. This one's still going on.
16:32
But you've got a guy there
16:34
who was fundamental to this VIP
16:36
late and to a lot of
16:38
the stories that we've talked about
16:41
and read about and Michel Monne
16:43
and all this sort of stuff.
16:45
And yet again, it's sort of,
16:47
oh, well, that's the past. The
16:49
past is a foreign country, let's
16:51
move on. And I think there
16:53
is some, this is something that.
16:55
the sort of trumps and the
16:57
musks of this world exploit very
16:59
very well. The attention span of
17:01
the media ecosystem is ever shorter
17:03
and that does lend itself to
17:05
Steve Bannon's flood the zone with
17:07
shit. So I'm not that bothered
17:09
about what happens to the spectator
17:12
frankly and these right wing people
17:14
who sort of by influence like
17:16
Marshall. I think we should try
17:18
and get him on the podcast
17:20
actually if you're listening Mr Marshall.
17:22
I know you love media ecosystem
17:24
chat. with quite a lot of
17:26
torture. Now here's a really interesting
17:28
question. From Tanya, who's a member
17:30
in Exeter, why doesn't Europe kick
17:32
Hungary out of the EU? and
17:34
any other country which chooses dictatorship
17:36
of democracy. John Graham, also a
17:38
member of St Auburn's, although the
17:41
EU cannot expel Hungary, do you
17:43
think it's time to fully suspend
17:45
their rights under Article 7, including
17:47
voting rights and the right of
17:49
veto? Now before you say what
17:51
you think about that, interestingly last
17:53
week at the European Council, so
17:55
there was a European summit to
17:57
which obviously post-Brexit we don't attend,
17:59
where... the issue was Ukraine, Zelensky
18:01
was there, but I for the
18:03
first time talking to people afterwards
18:05
got the sense that there are
18:07
senior people within the European Union
18:09
and the European Commission who think
18:12
that this all ban issue has
18:14
got to be addressed. And so
18:16
one person said, you know, this
18:18
guy has basically got us by
18:20
the balls because of the rules
18:22
that he exploits. So that we've
18:24
got to find a way of
18:26
addressing it. So I think they
18:28
begin to talk about that. And
18:30
quite right too, my view. If
18:32
we're looking at basically NATO without
18:34
the US, so removing this enormous
18:36
superpower with its giant economy, its
18:38
massive military infrastructure, and Europe tries
18:41
to pull itself together and put
18:43
itself together in the face of
18:45
this kind of barrage of attack,
18:47
it's going to get the barrage
18:49
of attack from Russia, trying to
18:51
divide it's going to divide it's
18:53
going to get a barrage of
18:55
attack from Musk and Vance. trying
18:57
to undermine our democracies from within,
18:59
it's going to get a barrage
19:01
of attack from almost everybody around
19:03
the world that disagrees with European
19:05
values. So as it tries to
19:07
do that, it's got to deal
19:09
with some very difficult things. One
19:12
of them is people inside Europe.
19:14
Hungary would be an example, but
19:16
who knows, Slovakia, Austria, who can
19:18
begin to undermine European consensus, so
19:20
can it do create these sort
19:22
of informal blocks that navigate around
19:24
them? Can it bring in other
19:26
states as allies? Can it think
19:28
about... really bolting on Canada, the
19:30
UK, Ukraine, Turkey, how do they
19:32
do that? And are the leaders
19:34
bold enough to do that? I
19:36
mean you saw Renasov Sikorski, the
19:38
Polish foreign minister, when Hungary said
19:40
there should be a referendum in
19:43
Hungary on Ukraine joining the EU.
19:45
He said there should be a
19:47
referendum in the EU on kicking
19:49
out Hungary. So there's the beginnings
19:51
of that kind of... stuff going
19:53
on. But here's a question from
19:55
John who's a member which is,
19:57
is Starmer going to be able
19:59
to... come up with a proper structure
20:02
for connecting Britain to the EU
20:04
or is it just going to
20:06
be ad hoc? So there we
20:08
are over to you. Did you
20:10
for answer that specifically because you
20:12
mentioned Austria there worth pointing out
20:14
and we talked about Austria a
20:16
lot after their election and about
20:18
this guy Kekyll that was looked
20:20
like he was in pole position
20:22
to to become Chancellor and it
20:24
hasn't happened because we've finally got
20:26
a government in Austria but it's
20:28
a three-party coalition that does not
20:30
include the fire rights the Conservatives
20:32
the Social Democrats and the Liberals so it's
20:34
going to be tricky to all that together
20:37
but it's interesting that the system in the
20:39
end decided no we're not having that guy.
20:41
Presumably in Austria this is kind of last
20:43
chance saloon this is their last hope to
20:46
try to hold Kekyll out. and Kekyll will
20:48
try to use the fact he's been excluded
20:50
to hope there's a new election where he
20:52
can get even more votes and ultimately end
20:54
up with a chance. He'll definitely try to
20:57
do that and that is the same for
20:59
vital in the in the AFD in Germany
21:01
and it's the same in Romania where the
21:03
hard right won then then lost or have
21:06
the election taken away. So yeah absolutely and
21:08
that but I think this is what's so
21:10
interesting about what's going on in Europe at
21:12
the moment is that it's kind of last
21:14
chanceling for everybody for everybody for everybody. were
21:17
to sort of be the subject of
21:19
some kind of political miracle and that
21:21
they're out in a single term with
21:23
that sort of majority, that's kind of
21:26
a last chance salute in some ways.
21:28
I think what Mertz is doing in
21:30
Germany, this sort of dramatic change to
21:33
boost defense spending by changing the rules
21:35
on this debt break, I think that's
21:37
him recognizing that, you know, we're beyond
21:40
the point where we can just tinker
21:42
around and do okay or fail a
21:44
bit. I think now they all recognise
21:47
that democratic, sensible, mainstream parties have got
21:49
to deliver else they're all going to be
21:51
in trouble. That's kind of what they think,
21:53
I think. Back to John's question on whether
21:55
Starmer would be up for being imagined enough
21:57
about formal structures as opposed to just add...
22:00
deals? Well, I hope so, because I
22:02
think these structures are going to have
22:04
to happen. I'm increasingly the view
22:06
that we've all had a bit
22:08
of confirmation bias, leaners towards the view
22:10
that, oh, America's never going to leave
22:13
NATO, America's never going to pull the
22:15
plug on Europe. If Trump lasts four
22:17
years, and let's remember that if he
22:19
falls under a bus, it's JD advance
22:21
who takes over under the American constitution.
22:24
It doesn't feel to me like they
22:26
are listening to our analysis as to
22:28
what is good for America. So if
22:30
that's the case, then I think new
22:32
structures do have to emerge. And you
22:34
can see them emerging. Kierstarmer, again to
22:37
his credit, because he's must be working
22:39
every hour God sends at the moment,
22:41
because he's not just got this. He's got
22:43
the day job of all the domestic stuff
22:45
as well. He's announced that he's going to
22:48
host another meeting, similar to the one he
22:50
did at Lancaster House recently. And I think
22:52
it will be interesting to see. You know,
22:54
will Canada be at that one again? Will
22:57
the Turks be at that? Will that broaden?
22:59
Some of the noises come out of Australia
23:01
are very interesting at the moment. They're in
23:03
the middle of an election. But both Albanese
23:06
and Dutton are pretty clear. I think it
23:08
was Dutton or the other day saying that,
23:10
yeah, we'd have to think about Australia getting
23:12
involved if there was a sort of boots
23:15
on the ground type operation. So I think
23:17
that whether that will live alongside NATO, I
23:19
think we're seeing this on the economies
23:21
as well, the bricks. I think we'll develop
23:23
and change. And we had a question,
23:26
we get lots of questions every week
23:28
about, you know, what's the UN for,
23:30
and obviously the UN is struggling to
23:32
find purpose in this sort of the
23:35
world of strong men. Just on this
23:37
point about Starmer, we did an interview
23:40
with Peter Kyle, the cabinet
23:42
minister responsible for IT and
23:44
technology, and listens will hear on
23:46
Monday when they listen to it.
23:49
Him trying to navigate this question
23:51
about what Britain's in the Labour
23:53
Party really neurogic about any talk
23:55
about things like rejoining the customs
23:58
union and that's presumably Partly,
24:00
I think because Morgan McSweeny and
24:02
the kind of red walls theory holds
24:04
that they need to rely on
24:07
Brexit voters and anyone alienate. I'm a
24:09
bit anxious, partly because of what they've
24:11
done on international development, which
24:13
is really sort of troubling
24:15
and bizarre, and the possibility
24:18
that they think that was a
24:20
popular good move because it coincided
24:22
with the moment that Stama became
24:24
more popular, which I think was largely
24:26
to do with his... handling of
24:28
Ukraine and having to deal with
24:30
cutting international development, but number 10
24:32
seems to think international development
24:35
as part of that. And all this together
24:37
leaves me with my anxiety about stoma, which
24:39
is, is he going to be able to
24:41
grow out of being a sort of
24:43
solid, technocratic civil servant into having
24:46
the kind of big imagination and
24:48
creativity to reimagine what the Western
24:50
order is without the United States? I mean,
24:53
this is the moment where... We need our
24:55
Jean Monets. This is the moment where
24:57
we need the generation that we
24:59
had in 1945-46, where you really
25:01
think, okay, this is the direction U.S.
25:03
is going, this is the threat that
25:06
Russia clearly poses to us, this is
25:08
where China's going, and we're going to
25:10
reimagine something which isn't just, we'll do
25:13
a little deal on fisheries, and
25:15
you give us a bit more access
25:17
on services, but this is something permanent,
25:19
an alliance we're creating. My answer
25:22
to that is I hope so
25:24
because I think that's what's going
25:26
to be needed. And I really
25:28
do think that what Mertz did.
25:30
I think people maybe underestimate just
25:32
how big a deal that was
25:34
that he announced, the change to
25:36
the debt break, and to be
25:38
so clear that it's about making
25:40
Germany and Europe more independent of
25:43
the United States. I must tell
25:45
you, by the way, Roy, I
25:47
was able... publicly to invite you
25:49
onto the podcast the other day
25:51
because we shared an interview space
25:53
on a German radio station and
25:55
I got big-footed. I'd done my
25:57
interview de Vocke, the interview of
25:59
the week. And I was very proud of
26:01
it because I did it all in German and
26:03
it was all very good and said some very
26:05
tough things. But then they said, you know, it
26:08
won't be running in the usual slot because Friedrichmertz
26:10
is coming on. So anyway, so what they did,
26:12
they said to him, we interviewed earlier today, we
26:14
interviewed Alistair Campbell, he used to work for Tony
26:17
Blair and now has a very successful podcast called
26:19
the rest of his politics. And he made two
26:21
points, he said he'd like you'd like you to
26:23
keep Boris Pistorius, Boris Pistorius, he's, he's, he's his,
26:25
he's his, he's his, he's Bist story. and he's
26:28
liked him to stay as defense minister and he
26:30
thinks he should get on with delivering
26:32
the tourist project to Ukraine. Now he
26:34
parked the Boris Pistorius thing but in
26:37
a very kind of calm polite way
26:39
and basically said yeah he's kind of
26:41
he didn't say the words but I
26:43
read between the lines he's with us
26:45
on tourists so anyway and I managed
26:48
to get an invite onto the podcast
26:50
while I was there so that's
26:52
quite good. As a dot Rory Rory Rory,
26:54
see you off the pouser. This
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29:05
Air. positive
36:00
aspects of it. Well you need to be
36:02
educated in why life without music is not a
36:04
proper life. I absolutely hear you. I'm an
36:07
uncivilized human being. I don't have the depths
36:09
of your bait-hoven soul. I completely, if only
36:11
I listen more to ABBA, my sense of
36:13
the world be different. No, I think that's
36:16
probably true. And it's also true you can
36:18
make the same case on football. I
36:20
think these are two big weaknesses in
36:22
my life. No, I think football, not
36:24
liking liking liking football, even though I
36:26
love it, I love it, I love
36:28
it, I love it, I love it,
36:30
I understand. I understand. I understand. Life
36:32
without music is life not worth living.
36:34
Part of the problem is I'm just
36:36
basically tone deaf and it's very difficult
36:38
to communicate to someone what that actually
36:40
feels like or is like. As I
36:42
think I've said before my father couldn't
36:44
understand it. He believed that everybody could
36:46
paint and everybody could play
36:48
music and dedicated his 92 years
36:51
to the slightly quixotic task of
36:53
trying to convince non-musical non-artistic people
36:55
to do watercolours and compose music.
36:58
I think it's possible weirdly that
37:00
we are sort of different, but
37:02
it kind of differently wired and
37:05
I think it's probably true 80% of
37:07
the world, 90% of the world, food
37:09
is an incredibly important part of their
37:11
lives, but not maybe 100%. I'm also
37:13
a bit... bit lame on food. I'm pretty lame
37:16
on food. I did Ruthie Rogers podcast this
37:18
week and I admitted I'm really not interfering.
37:20
I don't know where you're talking to me.
37:22
Are you a boy into music? Yeah, yeah.
37:24
Sasha's learning the trumpet at the moment and
37:26
enjoying that and I've really enjoyed singing. I
37:29
mean he's got he's got to work a
37:31
little bit more getting in tune but he
37:33
loves belting out June so I think there's
37:35
hope there. Hope in the next generation.
37:38
Right now back to serious stuff. Back
37:40
to serious stuff. Why are the mainstream
37:42
media and European politicians afraid pushback against
37:44
accusations of free-loading when the post-World War
37:47
II agreement was that the US would
37:49
provide security umbrella? So let's start with
37:51
that because that's an important point.
37:53
At the moment what Trump is basically suggesting
37:56
is that it was just US naivety
37:58
and everybody was mooching off them. and
38:00
the Americans were paying all this
38:02
money. What of course he forgets
38:04
is that America did this deliberately
38:06
so it could exercise power. It
38:09
invested in NATO because it wanted
38:11
to contain the Soviet Union. And
38:13
it didn't want Europe to go
38:15
weak at the knees or neutral
38:17
towards the Soviet Union. They wanted
38:19
Europe to be on the American
38:21
side. And Eisenhower spoke explicitly about
38:24
the U.S. having that security responsibility,
38:26
they didn't want to go to
38:28
develop his own nuclear weapons, they
38:30
wanted Europe to be dependent on
38:33
US nuclear weapons. And you can
38:35
see, actually even today, in two
38:37
examples, Ukraine and Syria, it's quite
38:39
clear that Trump is saying to completely
38:42
contradictory things. On the one hand, he
38:44
seems to be saying, I'm an isolationist,
38:46
I don't care what happens outside the
38:48
US, go ahead, you pay for it, we won't pay
38:51
for it. But on the other hand, when people
38:53
actually step up and offer to pay,
38:55
he doesn't let them. Because he wants
38:57
to have his cake and eat it. He
38:59
wants to say, I'm not going to pay
39:01
any money, but he also absolutely wants to
39:03
be able to take Russia's side on
39:05
Ukraine, which is why when Europe steps
39:07
up and says, okay, we'll find $50
39:09
billion a year, can we please buy
39:11
American kit and keep the satellites going?
39:13
He says no. And when Saudi Qatar and Turkey
39:15
step up in Syria and say, okay, you're saying
39:18
you don't want to spend a single American dollar
39:20
in Syria, you don't want to marry American troops
39:22
on the ground, can we please provide the money?
39:24
He won't let them do it. He puts sanctions
39:26
in place to prevent it, because in that case,
39:28
he's taking a position against Syria, as he's
39:31
taking a position against Ukraine, while pretending to
39:33
be isolationist and neutral. Interesting. Very interesting.
39:35
Let's stick it over there. Hidey leg. How
39:37
does Mark Carney position himself? When so
39:39
many democratic nations rejecting the liberal machine that
39:41
seems to choose candidates further upstream, how
39:43
does a candidate like Mark Carney stand out
39:46
as his own person rather than a
39:48
plant from the global elite? How can he
39:50
show that he truly wants Canada to
39:52
be wealthy? Okay, well I want you to
39:54
answer this because you've been deep in
39:56
Canada, but let me just do the little
39:59
explainer to explain. how weird it is.
40:01
So it would not be conceivable
40:03
in British politics for Mark Kearney
40:05
to do what he's just done.
40:07
So Mark Kearney was Governor of
40:09
the Bank of England and successful
40:11
banker. Mark Kearney is, I
40:13
guess, approximately 60 and he
40:15
hasn't been an elected MP. He
40:17
ran to be Prime Minister without
40:19
even being a member of Parliament.
40:22
He was just a grand public
40:24
figure. Be like Gary Linica suddenly
40:26
deciding. you know, to run for leadership
40:28
of the Labour Party without being an
40:30
MP. And he has ended up not
40:32
just winning the leadership, but becoming Prime
40:34
Minister, and now is in pole position.
40:37
And again, talk about luck in politics,
40:39
right? If we've been talking about this
40:41
before Trump completely destroyed Pierre Poliyev's chances,
40:43
it seemed like a hospital part. Yeah,
40:46
sure, Mark, you can become the leader
40:48
of the Liberal Party for a few
40:50
weeks, but you're then 20 points behind.
40:52
You'll go to defeat from Pierre Poliev. point
40:55
health point of view doing a few
40:57
weeks as Prime Minister and then being
40:59
leader the opposition. Instead of which he's
41:01
managed to pull all that off, okay,
41:03
over the US. The question, how does
41:05
he position himself? I think he does
41:07
a national version of what he's been
41:09
doing in the party context. Polyevera has
41:11
been, I mean, some of the polls,
41:13
Bruce Anderson was telling us on the
41:15
episode we did for members, he was
41:17
saying this is a Canadian polester and
41:19
strategist, some of the polls, Polyever was 25
41:21
points ahead, just a few weeks
41:23
ago. and he's now well into
41:26
single figures. We're now virtually within
41:28
the margin of error. So if
41:30
Mark Hardy, when he said position
41:33
himself, I would say, take the
41:35
messaging that has won himself this
41:37
landslide in the leadership election and
41:40
take that messaging into the national.
41:42
And part of that is about, this
41:44
is not about the liberal part, this
41:46
is now about bringing the whole of
41:49
Canada together. We are facing a really
41:51
strong, powerful enemy. I think the fact
41:53
that he called in out what it
41:56
is, and he linked Polyevris, I thought
41:58
very cleverly to Trump, you know. Basically,
42:00
you either stand up for Trump
42:02
or you stand up to Trump.
42:04
I'm standing up to him. I
42:07
think he positions himself as serious,
42:09
grown-up, experienced, not a politician.
42:11
It becomes a strength that he says
42:13
I'm new to this game. I know
42:15
a lot about politics because I've worked
42:17
in Central Bank. He's over there. Polyever
42:19
is a kind of lifelong. He exists
42:21
to be a politician. and then he's
42:24
got to find some you know good
42:26
chunky policy ideas that make people feel
42:28
this guy can get stuff done. Look
42:30
at you say that Polyever has crashed
42:32
he's not crashed it's still you know
42:34
what he will try to do is
42:36
to make Kani part of the Liberal
42:38
Party global elite all that stuff and
42:40
I'm not sure it's going to be
42:42
very effective. We shall see. It's going to
42:45
be very interesting here. And I think
42:47
it'll be soon. I think it's going
42:49
to be, I think he won't hang
42:51
around to call an election. Final question
42:53
for me, and thank you for this,
42:55
because it comes back to some themes
42:57
you've been touching on last few days.
42:59
Alison Matthews, Glasgow, trip plus member, thank
43:01
you for being a member of trip.
43:03
Where is the US opposition to Trump
43:05
advance? I see the odd thing on
43:07
social media, but nothing of significance. Where
43:09
are the Democrats? framing on
43:11
this which relates to our
43:13
conversation yesterday. We have
43:15
entered this reality TV social
43:18
media world which Trump has
43:20
sensed that he can release other
43:22
people. It's not just him doing
43:24
it. Obviously Musk has been
43:27
given cover to do it. Don't or
43:29
Jay Trump Jr. has been given cover
43:31
to do it. They're all rolling
43:33
and we'll see more and more from
43:36
Pete Heska than others as they as
43:38
they get going. And that's why he's
43:40
brought in a lot of Fox News
43:43
people into his central team.
43:45
And I think that we don't quite
43:47
understand how much this world
43:49
is changing because we don't
43:51
look enough at places like Russia.
43:53
We still think that the way
43:56
to respond is reasoned articles in
43:58
the New York Times. Whereas in
44:00
fact, what's being created for better
44:02
or for worse is a reality TV
44:05
thing with an enormous audience, particularly
44:07
on Facebook, which dominates a
44:09
lot of this, but also on
44:11
Twitter, where what they want to see
44:13
is you punch back. And in some
44:15
ways, Kamal Harris and Tim Waltz were
44:18
at their best in the campaign when
44:20
they were doing their own version of
44:22
this, doing things like these guys are
44:24
weird, viral videos, good stuff with
44:26
Saturday Night Live, mocking them back. One
44:29
of the questions for democratic
44:31
politics is very disturbing
44:34
because if you, me, Keastama, everybody
44:36
feel the only way we can
44:38
fight back against sort of Trump
44:40
in right is to, as it were, play them
44:42
at their own game. You
44:44
turn democratic audiences into people
44:46
sort of watching popcorn and thinking,
44:49
nothing's real. These are all a bunch
44:51
of bluffers, but wow, that was a funny
44:53
hit back and the whole thing that comes
44:56
like watching a pro wrestling match. I was
44:58
yesterday at that thing, you know, I remember
45:00
a year ago now we did that thing
45:02
at Methodist Hall with 1800, six performers.
45:04
I did it again solo yesterday
45:07
and some fantastic questions, but one
45:09
of them actually was about whether
45:11
there should be populism of the
45:13
left. and whether there's anything that we
45:15
can actually people like me can actually
45:18
learn from Trump. And that's something that
45:20
we also discussed with Tommy Vita on
45:22
Ponzo America this week. And the whole
45:24
premise of him wanting to talk to
45:26
me was actually goes absolutely agrees with
45:28
Allison that the Democrats are frankly all
45:31
over the place. There's no strategy
45:33
for recovery, there's no analysis really going
45:35
on, there's no, as far as I
45:37
can tell, there's no formal review of
45:39
what happened, and leaders are, the leaders
45:41
that are emerging, they're either the people
45:43
that we've known forever like Bernie Sanders
45:45
or AOC or whatever, otherwise new names
45:48
that are coming up, but it doesn't
45:50
feel terribly, terribly organised. But so many,
45:52
and what I said in answer to
45:54
this question, the Methodist Hall, I said,
45:56
if we define the kind of Trumpian
45:58
way in Moses name, three p's populism,
46:00
polarization and post-truth, then we don't
46:03
want to go down that road.
46:05
We don't want to become, you
46:07
know, a left-wing progressive version of
46:09
that. But where we should, can
46:11
and should learn from them, is
46:13
in relation to the incredible organizational
46:15
skills that they've got, not least
46:18
through the whole media ecosystem, think
46:20
tankery and all that stuff, but
46:22
also whether we like him or
46:24
not, and you and I don't,
46:26
Trump is in his own way
46:28
a genius communicator. Even if you
46:30
strip away the lies, and even if
46:32
you strip away the nonsense and the
46:35
bullshit and the bullying, and you may
46:37
say, well you can't strip that away
46:39
because that's part of it, but just
46:41
technically to watch him as a communicator.
46:43
Now what is it about? So when
46:45
we were talking about Matthew Barson saying,
46:47
go and help Labour ministers talk like
46:49
human beings, whatever you think about Trump,
46:52
there's something compelling about the way
46:54
he communicates. Now you can't sort of imitate
46:56
that, but what is it that he's got
46:58
about about about it. It's being interesting,
47:01
it's being entertaining, it's
47:03
about saying things that people don't
47:05
necessarily expect, it's about having a
47:07
very strong powerful turn of phrase
47:10
that commands attention. Now, he does
47:12
it for bad, but you can use
47:14
all of those factors for good. As
47:16
you know, I'm full of praise for
47:18
the way that Starmer Macron Mertz and
47:20
Tusk are handling what's going on now.
47:23
But in terms of how they project
47:25
and communicate to the public, I still
47:27
think it feels a little bit last
47:29
generation, not next generation. It's the next
47:31
generation that we've got to get on
47:33
side for what's coming. Part of the
47:35
problem is the risk of becoming sort
47:37
of defenders of the status quo. That
47:40
is absolutely right. And defenders of the
47:42
status quo that we actually don't like
47:44
and didn't create. That's the point. What's
47:46
under the Democrats at the moment?
47:48
There is a risk that they're defending
47:50
a status quo for which they're not
47:52
actually responsible. There is stuff
47:54
wrong with institutions. be the reformers not
47:57
the defenders. Exactly, so you know we've
47:59
had a question. from Anakin's sheep, would
48:01
we benefit from having our own
48:03
version of Doge? Now, there's a
48:05
classic question, right? Because I get
48:07
very, very wound up, understandably, by
48:09
people coming to be saying, well,
48:11
yeah, but, you know, isn't Elon
48:13
Musk right? Isn't government inefficient? Well,
48:15
of course government's inefficient. You know,
48:18
you and I have worked in
48:20
government. We torn our hair out
48:22
about government. There's a lot that's
48:24
inefficient about government, and we see
48:26
it all the way they'd manage.
48:28
How on earth do you say
48:30
to people, look, okay, yes,
48:32
and yes, it's also true
48:34
that quite a lot of
48:36
international development assistance was also
48:39
misspent, but that doesn't mean
48:41
doing this, right? Doesn't mean a
48:43
situation where we now have all
48:45
the HIV AIDS medication
48:47
currently stuck in ports with
48:50
it expiring, so that it can't
48:52
be used to save lives. The
48:54
same with vaccination on the
48:56
most basic diseases. I was talking
48:58
to a farmer in Zimbabwe who is
49:00
now funding all the entry retroviral
49:02
treatment for his own workforce out
49:04
of his own pocket because 35%
49:06
of people have HIV AIDS and
49:09
Trump has stopped all of that. It's going
49:11
to explosion across the world of this.
49:13
We've seen it with Musk shutting
49:15
down the federal drug administration. I
49:17
was talking to someone in the
49:20
FDA. Shut down all the testing
49:22
centers including the basic food testing
49:24
centers and then have to reopen
49:26
them. fires, you know, nuclear controllers.
49:28
We talked to Michael Lewis about
49:31
this. This was his fifth risk,
49:33
and rehires them. I mean, it's
49:35
completely irresponsible, insane. You know, the
49:37
other one, we hear about, well,
49:39
isn't it right that, you know,
49:41
Europe should pay a bit more
49:43
on defense? Yeah, sure. Let's say you
49:46
had, for some reason, been, I don't
49:48
know, supporting a charity, and
49:50
you were supporting 50% of its income,
49:52
and you wanted it to raise more
49:54
of its own money, on you, Fair enough,
49:56
but the way to do it is say here's a
49:58
five-year plan. I'm going to... every year there's going
50:00
to be a thing and you're going to raise
50:03
up. Not I'm stopping all funding now, thank you.
50:05
Whole things collapse is. And that's what reveals
50:07
who they really are. They're not really trying
50:10
to help Europe become self-sufficient. They're not giving
50:12
them time to do it. They're just knocking
50:14
them off the cliff. Your point about you
50:16
is in Barbian farmer and the HIV AIDS.
50:19
I'm really struggling. Maybe some Americans who could
50:21
help us try to understand this. Why are
50:23
the former president so silent? I mean George
50:25
Bush that was one of his biggest the
50:28
biggest parts of his legacy And we all
50:30
know he thinks of Trump you can see
50:32
it on his face when he sits there
50:35
in the organization But he's just decided he's
50:37
just going to sit it out and say
50:39
nothing. I Just wonder would there be
50:41
something very powerful if? Biden Obama Clinton
50:43
and Bush got together and warned the
50:46
American people this is unbelievably dangerous. What's
50:48
happening we have to wake up or
50:50
do they just think you know what
50:52
we're the past? People won't listen. I
50:54
don't know. The answer is it depends how
50:56
they do it and how smart they are
50:59
and how alert to the modern media environment
51:01
they are. Do it wrong and the story
51:03
will be here's a bunch of elite
51:06
has-beens. Do it with real wit and
51:08
inventiveness. Troll them back. You could
51:10
actually do a surprising amount of
51:12
damage. But the question is how how
51:14
fleet-footed are these people going to be?
51:17
My friend Greg Newton, who's very good
51:19
to a marketing guy, and he says
51:21
we should stop calling it Doge and
51:24
call it Dodge, as in Dodgey
51:26
as fuck. Because it is, it's
51:28
totally, the whole thing's corruption. Scaramage,
51:30
who's right, they've opened the golden
51:32
era of corruption. So Dodge, let's
51:35
stop calling it Doge, we're going to
51:37
call it Dodge. You've put your finger
51:39
on something we're going to end on,
51:41
and I think it's so important.
51:43
So what... Peter Pomperencef points out
51:45
in Russia in 2000 and
51:47
is the analogy I think
51:49
with Trump today is that
51:52
the reality TV stuff all
51:54
the chat about invading Greenland and
51:56
Canada being the 51st state and
51:58
all the noise creates
52:01
a sort of pseudo debate and
52:03
it distracts you from what's really
52:05
happening. So it creates a kind
52:07
of illusion of a kind
52:10
of democratic debate. Meanwhile,
52:12
Congress is becoming completely
52:14
irrelevant. And the really
52:16
big questions, which you've just raised
52:18
out of power and money, happen
52:20
off stage, a completely opaque, all
52:23
these fireworks are happening on
52:25
social media. But what really is
52:27
happening with Musk. with the data
52:29
in the tax office, with subsidies,
52:31
with personal relationships,
52:34
with conflicts of interest, with Bitcoin.
52:36
And that's what happened in Russia.
52:38
All this stuff was happening on
52:40
TV. And the journalists were like,
52:43
I just can't question what is
52:45
happening in gas and oil. You
52:47
know, how's Abramovich working
52:49
with Berozovsky? I thought Berozovsky owned
52:51
this. Now, Putin's doing this. And
52:54
so I think that that's it.
52:56
Let's it. Let's keep... trying to
52:58
see the policy behind, see
53:00
what happens behind this kind
53:02
of evolution. It's also why,
53:04
going back to our discussion
53:06
on the main podcast this
53:09
week about China, is why
53:11
ultimately we have to train
53:13
ourselves to have deeper and
53:15
broader attention spans and sometimes
53:17
just to say, oh he
53:19
said something really stupid again,
53:21
let's ignore it. not play his
53:23
game, not poke around the turn the
53:25
whole time. Now where you and I
53:27
disagreed with Michael Wolfe, I don't agree
53:29
and you don't agree with Michael that
53:32
you just wait him out. You can't
53:34
wait him out. You've got to fight
53:36
him, but I think at the moment
53:38
this goes back to the question about
53:40
the Democrats. If you fight on
53:42
every single front that they're throwing
53:44
out, all the chaff that they're
53:46
throwing out there, you're just you'll
53:48
dissipate your strategic thinking. Trump every
53:51
week to resist talking about everything
53:53
that he does, but to try
53:55
to maintain an attention span on
53:57
the things that actually beneath the
53:59
surface. are of even more lasting
54:01
damage than the absolute crap
54:03
that he comes out with when he
54:06
sits at his desk with his big
54:08
market pen. And then the problem is
54:10
how do you know when it goes from
54:12
being performance and propaganda to
54:15
reality, how do you spot
54:17
that moment which people missed
54:19
with Putin where he goes
54:21
from sounding like a ethanol
54:23
nationalist? saying he's going to take Ukraine
54:26
to the moment where he actually begins
54:28
believing it and evades Ukraine. So how
54:30
do we spot the moment where Trump
54:32
goes from saying, well I'm going to
54:34
take Greenland and everyone thinks, well he's
54:36
always saying that kind of stuff to
54:38
the moment where the troops get on
54:40
the plane and he takes Greenland? Yeah, well
54:42
you have to win the big battles
54:44
on route and that's why actually the
54:46
European response for all the sort of...
54:49
social media, bullying, intimidation etc. thus
54:51
far I think has been the
54:53
right way. Anyway, quite depressing but
54:55
JD Vance, I know he says that the
54:58
left wing has banned comedy, it's one
55:00
of these many lies, but comedy was
55:02
alive and well with Matt Ford last
55:04
night and I'm on the last leg
55:06
this week following the mooch. Oh, Brinnant.
55:08
Lots more bulldog. Well done you. I
55:11
spoke to Rory Bremma last night,
55:13
you remember the great guy who
55:15
does this amazing imimitations of voices.
55:17
And he was saying one of the
55:20
challenges for comedians is satirizing this
55:22
world is getting more and more
55:24
difficult because it becomes so absurd
55:26
and grotesque, it's very difficult to
55:28
outdo Trump himself. When Trump himself
55:30
is posting videos of him as
55:32
a gold statue in Gaza with
55:34
dancing girls and beards, I mean,
55:36
what's the satirist supposed to do? Okay, Rory,
55:39
well lovely to talk to you as ever.
55:41
Speak to you soon. Speak soon. Thank you,
55:43
Isaac. Bye.
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