0:00

So what exactly happened in the two thousand

0:02

and twenty two midterm elections,

0:04

How did Republicans end up coming

0:07

short, is it as bad as the media

0:09

is making it out to be, and what lessons

0:11

should we learn? Ye I

0:29

was originally hoping to do this recap

0:31

of the Bitts firms and have it be extremely

0:34

positive to be able to talk about how

0:36

we won the House by you know, a

0:38

bunch of seeds, we picked up the Senate, gubernatorial

0:41

seats, the list goes on. Obviously, Republicans

0:44

performance in the mid terms was a little underwhelming.

0:47

However, we we also still don't have the full picture.

0:50

We're still awaiting results in the House. We're

0:52

still awaiting results in the Senate,

0:54

so we don't know what the makeup of

0:57

the House and the Senate is actually going to

0:59

be yet. So I think it's unfair to fully write

1:01

the story when it hasn't

1:04

hasn't concluded, right, I mean, you can't

1:06

really reflect on the midterm elections until we

1:08

have the full results. But we're

1:10

going to try to go through where things stand

1:12

now and what you should know about it and

1:15

perhaps some of the reasons why Republicans

1:18

didn't have the red wave that so many

1:20

people, like myself, we're expecting

1:22

before we do that. I just want to give something

1:25

that I've realized in working in

1:27

politics for a long time, because before

1:29

I got into media, I was a campaign

1:32

person. I was a political person. I worked on Capitol

1:34

Hill for a few different members of Congress.

1:36

I worked at the NRCC in the historic

1:40

election. I've worked on campaigns.

1:42

I was a communications director in one of the top

1:44

Senate campaigns in the country in Wisconsin

1:47

during the election. I've worked on primary

1:50

races. I was a vice president of a polling

1:52

firm for a period of time. I've worked as

1:54

part of consulting teams on top Senate

1:56

races as well. So I've

1:59

done a lot of this right, and so what I'm giving my

2:01

perspective when I'm trying to dig in and get a

2:03

fuller picture, it's not just based off of,

2:05

you know, just throwing stuff against the

2:07

wall and saying what sticks. It's basing it

2:09

off of a lot of what I've learned, a lot of what I've

2:11

seen. And I'm also talking

2:14

to people who work on campaign committees,

2:16

who work on these races, who are are pulling

2:18

and looking at numbers in real

2:20

Time, so I sort of collectively put that all together

2:23

and trying to look at what

2:25

the electorate's going to look like, what an election

2:27

is going to look like. But before we feel

2:30

too beaten down about the state of things,

2:32

I always go back to Time

2:34

magazine. And I

2:36

don't know if you guys remember, but Time

2:38

put a cover of the you know,

2:40

the g B elephant and

2:43

said endangered species. And

2:45

this was May eighteen, two thousand

2:48

nine. And and and what did Republicans do that

2:51

mid term cycle? I know I was

2:53

at the NBCC at the time. We picked

2:55

up sixty three seats in the House and six

2:57

in the Senate. So you

2:59

know, elections can be swing e They're all

3:01

over the place. They changed from election to elections.

3:04

So what happened this election cycle

3:06

does not define what's going to happen

3:08

in But that

3:10

does not mean we should not try to learn lessons

3:13

from it and and try to get an idea of

3:15

what happened. So for starters,

3:17

what I want to start out with is, it's

3:19

infuriating that we don't have the results of the election

3:23

right, and mail and ballots are are really

3:25

the result of that. And

3:27

what's wild is if you go back to presidential

3:29

elections of the past. The Associated

3:31

Press was able to call the two thousand twelve

3:33

presidential race for Barack Obama at

3:36

eleven thirty eight pm Eastern on Election

3:38

Night. The

3:40

AP called the election for Donald

3:42

Trump at twenty nine am Eastern

3:45

time the next day after the election. But

3:48

in two thousand twenty two, with all the mail and ballots,

3:51

the AP didn't call the race until

3:53

eleven twenty six a m. Eastern on November

3:55

seven, four days after election

3:57

day. And now as we are awaiting finalized

4:00

results in states like Arizona

4:03

and Nevada for the Senate races, they're saying we might

4:05

not know the final conclusions until

4:07

next week. Now

4:10

does that give you a great deal of confidence

4:13

and our elections? I mean, particularly when you're looking

4:15

at Arizona, where Katie Hobbs, the Democrat

4:17

Canada in the gubernatorial race, is

4:19

the secretary of State. And it also

4:21

just raises questions because Democrats really

4:24

try to set the groundwork for this. Remember that Joe

4:26

Biden's speech that he gave in prime time

4:28

before the midterm election where he said this, listen,

4:32

in many states, don't start counting those ballots

4:35

after the polls closing no member eight. That

4:38

means in some cases we want to know the winner of

4:40

the election for a few

4:42

days until a few days after the election,

4:46

takes time to count all legitimate ballots.

4:49

So obviously laying the groundwork there on Twitter

4:51

also pushed this propaganda. It's welcome message

4:53

before the election said it takes time to count

4:56

all of the votes. We know that the media went in

4:58

and reinforced this idea

5:00

as well. And look, I mean the use of mail and ballots

5:03

and absentee ballots has grown exponentially

5:05

since covid Right, Democrats really

5:08

used covid U virus, which

5:10

is about as deadly as the flu, to completely

5:12

change the name of the game when it comes

5:14

to elections, and they smartly

5:17

did that. Right, We were idiots for not fighting

5:19

it harder, for not pushing back, and and

5:21

now you know we're ruining that day. I

5:23

mean, you look at the use of mail and ballots and absolute

5:25

ballots has grown exponentially

5:27

from in two thousand four,

5:30

which was a presidential election to presidential

5:35

election. And then you'll get states like Nevada

5:38

where we're still looking to see

5:40

what the outcome of the Senate race

5:42

there under Democrat control in two thousand

5:44

twenty one, they passed a B three one,

5:47

which requires county clerks to

5:49

mail all active registered voters

5:51

a ballot at least fourteen days before

5:54

an election, making the state one of eight to offer

5:56

universal mail and ballots. And

5:58

I know that everyone tries to tell us there's no concerns

6:00

with mail abouts. This is what the media wants to say.

6:03

But the reality is it just touches more hands than if

6:05

you just go in and you make your vote. That's

6:07

just the reality. Remember when former Attorney

6:09

General Bill Barr had this

6:12

to say in September on

6:14

CNN Listen, which is the Bipartisan

6:17

Commission chaired by Jimmy Carter and

6:19

James Baker, said back in two thousand

6:21

nine that mail

6:24

in voting is fraud with

6:26

the risk of fraud and coercions.

6:28

And until this improved

6:31

it, let me talk please uh

6:34

And since this, since that time, there's

6:36

been in the newspapers,

6:39

in networks, academic

6:41

studies saying it is open

6:43

to fraud and coercion. The

6:46

only time the narrative changed is after

6:48

this administration came in. But elections

6:50

that have been held with mail have

6:53

found substantial fraud and coercion.

6:55

For example, we indicted someone in Texas

6:58

ballots collected, and I'm not concluding

7:01

that the election was stolen. I have no evidence

7:04

of that. But what I do think is it it undermines

7:06

and it erodes confidence in the election when

7:08

it takes this long to get the results. And

7:10

also Democrats are so concerned about

7:13

democracy, why would

7:15

they not want to boost confidence in elections?

7:17

And we know that it can be done to get

7:19

the results accurately

7:21

and in a timely manner, because Florida has done it.

7:24

You know, Florida's the third most populous state.

7:26

They were able to give us results on election night my

7:28

home state of Florida where I live now. You know,

7:30

Florida is a population of twenty two

7:32

million people and they were able to get it done.

7:34

So what excuse do some of

7:36

these other states have with much

7:39

lesser populations and not being able

7:41

to produce the results of the election. So

7:43

this is something that needs to change.

7:45

But we also have to be honest with ourselves, and

7:47

we can't change it unless we win in some

7:50

of these states and then go in and change the election

7:52

laws. And unfortunately, to win in some of these

7:54

states, we have to play the game. And

7:57

the problem right now is Democrat

8:00

has spent four weeks turning

8:02

out the early vote with mail and ballots,

8:04

of encouraging early voting, and Republicans really

8:06

try to rely on one day on election day.

8:09

You can't win under that scenario.

8:11

You've got to encourage or like even in Florida, I

8:13

remember Governor to Santass team were pushing the

8:15

early vote. I even went out and early voted in Florida.

8:17

Although Florida has tightened its election laws,

8:20

so it looks a lot different here than it does in other

8:22

states in terms of election to integrity. But

8:25

point being is that we have to play the

8:27

game that's in front of us, right. I know we want to

8:29

change the game. I believe in changing the game. I

8:31

just pointed out my concerns with

8:33

mail and ballots. But until that happens, you have to

8:35

play the game. And the sad thing is you had a

8:37

heck of a lot of Pennsylvanians who voted

8:40

early before even watching that debate

8:42

when Fetterman completely fell apart on stage

8:45

against Dr Oz And that's not

8:47

right, that's not fair. But

8:49

the reality is the reality, and

8:51

so Republicans need to play smarter in

8:54

this new era of politics. Where

8:56

the name of the game has changed, and if we want

8:58

to change it, as I do, got to win to

9:00

do that, and then how are you going to win? You gotta play

9:03

the game that's in front of you, and then you can change

9:05

the dynamics for more integrity once

9:07

you win, quick break more inwo

9:10

mid terms. The

9:13

second part of it is okay, A

9:16

lot of us, like myself included, thought

9:18

that this would be a bigger election for Republicans,

9:21

thought it would be a wave. I still stand

9:23

by that the dynamics were set up for a

9:25

wave election. We just didn't get it done. I

9:27

was pointing out earlier the reasons why

9:30

I thought it would be a wave election, and those things

9:32

still stand. I mean, you look at the history of

9:34

past elections since World War Two, the

9:36

party out of power has picked up a net

9:39

of twenty eight seats and forty

9:41

three seats when a president's approval rating was below

9:43

fifty. We have a president with an approval

9:45

rating at this is a midterm

9:48

election. History would demonstrate

9:50

that this should have been big electoral

9:53

gains in the House. Another thing to look at

9:55

regarding the House and the electorate.

9:57

With the Houses, we only needed to net five

9:59

seats to win the majority. There were less seats

10:02

in play than maybe some prior midterm

10:04

election cycles, meaning the margins were already

10:06

tight in the House. There was less fertile ground,

10:08

so we were never going to have a sixty and you know, a net

10:10

sixty three night like we did in the mid

10:13

term elections. But we should have picked

10:16

up more seats than what we are potentially

10:18

on track too picked up. That's also a fact.

10:20

Another reason I was looking and thinking that it was

10:22

going to be a big wave election. It was the

10:24

environmental factors, right. I just

10:26

mentioned a president with a forty two percent approval

10:29

rating, the fact that we have forty year high

10:31

inflation, record high gas

10:33

prices, All of these dynamics

10:35

in play environmental factors that would

10:38

prove positive to Republicans,

10:40

particularly since Republicans have always

10:42

done better and did do better on those

10:44

who thought the inflation was the number one

10:46

issue, which it was according to exit polling.

10:49

I was also looking at where Democrats

10:51

were spending time in the final days, and

10:53

you had the Democrat Governors Association creating

10:56

an independent Expenditure Committee in New York

10:58

to boost Kathy Hokel, a state

11:00

where Democrats out number of Republicans two

11:02

to one. You had the Clintons

11:04

spending time there, Joe Biden spending time

11:06

they're all out for HOCO, which led

11:08

me to believe that if they're spending time in a state

11:11

like that, what does that mean for the rest of the country. We

11:13

had Joe Biden also spending time in a state

11:15

like Oregon, a deep blue state. And you

11:17

had the first lady spending time

11:19

in Virginia's tenth congressional district

11:21

for Jennifer Wexton, which is a Biden

11:24

plus nineteen district. She spent time there

11:26

on mid term the day before the midterm election.

11:29

So a lot of that concluded me to believe that

11:31

Democrats were playing defense to a certain

11:33

degree. And then you also had the polling and

11:35

passed elections which underestimated

11:38

support for Republicans. You know, this happened

11:40

in a lot of states, in a lot of areas in the two

11:42

thousand, eighteen and twenty ten elections. And

11:45

if you look at the twenty elections, national

11:47

polls were the most inaccurate they've been in forty

11:49

years. State polls most inaccurate

11:51

in twenty years, and and looking at that,

11:54

national polls overestimated support

11:56

for Biden by an average of three point nine

11:58

percent. State poll were similarly

12:00

skewed towards the Democrats towards

12:03

Joe Biden, with a two favorable

12:05

snapshot of him by four point three percent.

12:07

So I thought, here we are again, where

12:10

the polls are not picking up what

12:12

is actually happening and what has all

12:14

the makings and the fundamentals for a big

12:17

way of election. So I still stand

12:19

by that all those factors were true.

12:21

We had a ripe environment for a way of election,

12:24

but it didn't materialize. So you

12:27

might ask me, well, Lisa, why didn't it materialize.

12:29

Here's what I've concluded in conversations

12:32

with people also looking at exit polling and

12:34

trying to get a bigger picture of why

12:36

we didn't quite have the night that a lot of us,

12:38

including myself. I'm admitting I thought it was

12:40

gonna be a bigger night than it did. I

12:43

don't think I was wrong to have thought that, but

12:46

I did miss some things that ended up happening

12:48

in the midterm elections which I wasn't expecting.

12:51

Right again, we have to learn from these things. We have to

12:53

look at what happened and and and

12:55

try to look at what do we need to do different

12:57

heading into again,

12:59

what happened this election cycle doesn't define as

13:02

I pointed out with Time magazine

13:04

saying that Republican Party was extinct in

13:07

nineteen or two thousand nine and the Republicans

13:09

went on to have a massive midterm

13:12

election in So

13:14

you have to take everything with a grain assault. So,

13:17

as I was talking about, the conditions

13:19

for a wave were there, but we didn't execute.

13:23

So why not you know what happened where it was

13:25

a breakdown? I mean,

13:27

if if you think about midterm elections are

13:30

normally a referendum on the

13:32

president the party in charge. Presidential

13:35

elections are these choice elections where you're really

13:37

choosing between these two people. But

13:40

in order to win a midterm election, you need

13:42

a couple of things. You've

13:45

got to motivate your base more than the other side,

13:47

and you've got to win independence. And

13:50

if you look at exit polling, we didn't do that. Democrats

13:53

were motivated to turn out in a large part

13:55

because of doubs, because of the issue of abortion,

13:57

which we see an exit pulling actually ended

13:59

up being second most important issue in

14:01

national exit polls. The Democrat base

14:04

they were motivated. We should have been more motivated,

14:06

So they gave them an issue, a reason to turn

14:08

out, and we didn't went over independence, And

14:11

I think to some degree that also speaks of what

14:13

kind of society we're living in

14:16

where the desire to murder a child supersedes

14:19

you know, being murdered in a street with crime. But

14:22

you know, that's where we are as a country. It's

14:24

pretty wild. And you know, there's been a lot of finger

14:26

pointing at Trump this election cycle,

14:29

so I want to get into that a little bit as well.

14:32

So I think some of it's fair in terms of,

14:34

you know, their candidate quality argument that's

14:36

out there. I mean, you look at someone like Doug Mastriano.

14:39

He he did get crushed in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial

14:41

race. I mean that's just a fact. He shouldn't have lost by

14:43

that much in Pennsylvania and Dr

14:46

Oz losed by much less. But I

14:48

think Mastriano really hurt him. I'm

14:50

not even an OS fan, but that is just what the number

14:52

show. And you look at Don Bullock in

14:55

New Hampshire, he lost significantly

14:57

as well, like that race should have been competitive,

15:00

is in So some of that is true in

15:02

terms of you know, the candidate selection and sure, yeah,

15:04

voters have to go out and select

15:06

these candidates. But you know, if

15:08

Trump hadn't endorsed them, would they have been

15:11

elected? I don't know, Probably not right.

15:13

And then you know he also had about a hundred million

15:15

in the bank and didn't use that to boost

15:18

some of these candidates, and you know throughout

15:20

the general elections. I mean, I think those criticisms

15:22

are are somewhat fair. I mean, we got to

15:24

look at this and look at it truthfully. And then

15:26

too, you know, as I was mentioning, in the midterm election,

15:28

it's tend to be a referendum. I do think

15:31

Trump having a big role in this election

15:33

and also looking ahead at and

15:36

talking about presidential election maybe made

15:38

it more of a choice election where it's

15:40

not just a referendum, it's about and a whole another

15:42

aspect of it. So I think the water's got

15:44

a little muddied with the abortion aspect.

15:46

And then you know, Trump having a big presence

15:48

in the midterm elections as well. I mean, we know that he motivates

15:51

the Republican base, but we also know that he turns

15:53

off some independence and that you

15:55

know, Democrats hate him, and when you have to turn your

15:57

base out more that does have an impact. That's

15:59

not, you know, be mean towards Trump. It's just to actually

16:02

try to really look at this and dig in and figure out

16:04

what happened. But if we're going to take him at Trump,

16:06

which a lot of people are, you gotta look at the bigger

16:08

picture too. I mean, the Republican Party at large

16:10

really failed to do what they were supposed

16:12

to do. I mean, you gotta look at Kevin McCarthy,

16:15

you gotta look at the committee chairman, and Ronald

16:17

McDaniel at the r n C, or Tom Emer

16:20

at the nr c C or Rick

16:22

Scott at the NSC as well, because they didn't

16:24

do what they're supposed to do either. So I mean, if

16:26

you're gonna do a pox on Trump's house, it's really got

16:28

to be everyone you look at. Mitch McConnell probably

16:30

deserves a significant share of the blame because

16:33

he canceled ten million in TV

16:35

ads for Blake Masters in Arizona

16:38

while spending millions in Alaska.

16:40

When you're gonna have a Republican candidate

16:42

end up winning in Alaska regardless,

16:45

you're always going to have a Republican out of that race, So

16:47

why not spend the money on races that would

16:49

define the balance of power. So I think

16:51

Mitch McConnell deserves a significant,

16:54

you know, part of the blame. But you know, the bottom line

16:56

is everyone's sort of trying to decide in

16:58

real time what these election and mean,

17:00

and what the midterms elections mean when we still

17:02

don't know what the final resorts are, right Like, we're

17:04

still waiting for house races. We're still

17:06

waiting to figure out what's going to happen

17:08

in the Senate. We also have the runoff in

17:11

December with Raphael Warnock

17:13

and Herschel Walker as well. So we're

17:15

really trying to write a story that

17:18

is, you know, still somewhat unwritten as

17:20

we sort of await some of these details and the

17:22

outcomes of some of these elections. I

17:24

do want to end with this in the sense of, Okay,

17:26

yeah, we're all disappointed, right we

17:28

were expecting a bigger election, and

17:30

you know, I admitted I really thought it was going to be bigger.

17:33

I mean, I think I had justifications for

17:35

thinking that, but it didn't end up the way I

17:37

believed. I'm going to take ownership of that, but

17:39

there were some bright spots as well. I think some

17:41

of those bright spots is the fact that Joe Biden

17:43

is going to remain in office. Right it looked like they

17:46

were trying to kick him to the curb. You can't do

17:48

that based off of this election outcome. So Joe

17:50

Biden will likely be the candidate in a

17:53

damaged candidate. You know, approval ratings

17:55

at fort and the economy is probably

17:57

going to get worse sadly, gas prices, all these

17:59

things. Things are still going to hang over him

18:01

heading into election. Republicans

18:04

will also end up probably winning the popular

18:06

vote as well. A really really bright spot

18:08

in the state of Florida with Governor Ron De

18:11

Sante's I mean, he beat Charlie crist by twenty

18:13

points. That's insane. That's the biggest

18:15

margin in any Florida gubernator race

18:17

in forty years. I mean, that's literally insane. Florida

18:19

was previously a competitive state.

18:22

Now it's a red state. He won sixty two

18:24

of the state's sixty seven counties. That's

18:26

crazy. He won the heavily Hispanic Miami

18:28

Diade county. That's the first up governor

18:30

candidate to do it in twenty years. And what

18:32

I think he did even more importantly is

18:34

that with this midterm election. Yeah, there was a lot

18:37

to vote against with Democrats, but Governor

18:39

de Santas gave Floridians something to

18:41

vote for. I mean, he led with freedom,

18:44

He kept Florida open, He fought the opposition

18:46

on that, he took on corporations with Disney, if

18:48

he fought indoctrination in schools.

18:51

Even if you look at his response to Hurricane

18:53

Ian, it was flawless, so much so that

18:55

even Joe Biden gave him props.

18:57

And you know, the bottom line is that Rep.

19:00

Bookends are still going to be better off than they were

19:02

before this election in terms of you know, we will

19:04

gain seats in the House. We'll see what happens

19:06

in the Senate. So not the outcome that we

19:08

wanted, but we got to look to the future, and you

19:10

look to the future and Democrats also

19:13

have a terrible Senate map in so

19:15

we'll probably increase our margins that cycle.

19:17

Next cycle, they're defending twice as

19:19

many seats as US and including nine really

19:22

really competitive Senate seats as well.

19:24

Was the selection what we wanted? No, we

19:26

still don't have the final results, so I think we kind

19:28

of need to hold out see what the full

19:30

picture looks like at the end of all of this, but

19:33

we also have a lot to look forward to. I do think

19:35

that could go our away, and

19:38

I do believe that the issues

19:40

that remain in the country and the

19:42

country falling apart. I mean, we can't

19:44

just give up. We can't just stop fighting.

19:47

We can't just seed the country to these

19:49

people. We've got, you know, big, big problems,

19:51

and it's going to take real leadership.

19:54

And we've realized that we do have real

19:56

leaders in this country as well. It's gonna be okay.

19:58

But what we'll keep following us as we move forward

20:01

and you know, we get more information, but you

20:03

know, don't give up. The fight continues

20:05

and it's all going to be okay.

20:08

Y that

20:25

was my election recap. I

20:27

hope you enjoyed it. We're obviously going to cover this issue

20:29

more as we move forward, as we learn more

20:31

as well. I want to thank John Cassio for putting

20:34

the show together. I want to thank you guys at home for listening

20:36

as always every Monday and Thursday, but you can

20:38

listen throughout the week The Truth of Lisa Booth

20:40

and feel free to leave us a review on Apple Podcasts.

20:43

Love reading You reviews. Love seeing your ratings

20:45

as well, so thanks so much for listening