0:00

Do you guys feel it. We're in

0:02

the mid term sprint right now. We

0:04

are heading into one of the most consequential

0:07

elections of our lifetime. You

0:09

know the stakes. I know the stakes. We've

0:11

seen what this administration has done.

0:13

Joe Biden has destroyed our country in two

0:16

years. Did you ever think he could do

0:18

this much damage in such a short period of time.

0:20

We've got record high inflation, gas prices

0:23

are up, the indoctrination of kids in schools.

0:25

We've got the d o J and the FBI targeting

0:28

patriotic Americans. So

0:31

everything is at stake on November

0:33

eight. Everything, the future

0:35

of this country, the future of your kids.

0:38

It's the life or death scenario. When

0:40

we see the d o J and the FBI targeting

0:43

patriotic Americans. Everything

0:46

is at stake this November. And what

0:48

I don't want to happen is for people to get demoralized

0:50

because you're watching the media,

0:53

You're you're reading what they're printing about this election.

0:55

Because they are wrong. They're wrong about what's

0:57

happening in the country right now. They're going to be wrong again

1:00

on November eight. I'm telling you this, go

1:03

back to look at the mistakes

1:05

that were made in pulling in.

1:09

There was a report from the American Association

1:11

for Public Opinion Research finding

1:13

that national surveys in were

1:16

the least accurate in forty years. State

1:19

polls were the least accurate in two

1:21

decades. I mean, you can look at polls

1:24

heading into the election. ABC had

1:26

Joe Biden winning Wisconsin by

1:28

seventeen He won by

1:30

less than a point. Even

1:33

in Florida. The Real Clear Politics average, which

1:35

it's not the fault of the Real Clear Politics Average,

1:37

it's it's the fault of the pollsters

1:39

that they're averaging out, but

1:41

it had Joe Biden up by one point two in Florida.

1:44

Biden lost big to Trump. Trump

1:47

won with a margin of three point four percent.

1:51

And there's examples across the country. I don't want

1:53

to bore you, but the point is they got it wrong.

1:55

Why did they get it wrong. My

1:58

opinion of why they got it wrong they

2:00

wanted to get it wrong. Their

2:03

intent is not to capture the election,

2:05

it's to shape the election, and

2:07

it works. We saw

2:10

this in Arizona recently, where

2:12

you have Blake Masters. If you listen to the polls,

2:14

he's in striking distance. I think he's probably

2:16

up in Arizona. To be perfectly

2:18

honest with you, but we saw the impact of

2:21

what this public polling does. You had Mitch McConnell's

2:24

superpack, the Senate Leadership Fund. They

2:26

canceled nine point six million dollars

2:28

in television ads for Blake Master

2:30

in the Arizona Senate race. Why do you think they did that? One,

2:34

I think Mitch McConnell would rather be

2:37

in charge in the minority than lose.

2:39

You know, they no longer be the Senate majority

2:42

leader if Republicans were to win. But

2:45

also because these posters

2:47

who get it wrong intentionally, they make

2:49

an impact. They shape dollars going

2:51

into these campaigns. They shape people's

2:53

desire to donate. If they don't

2:56

think that a candidate can win, they're not going to

2:58

donate. It discourages

3:01

voters and thinking, oh, I don't know, I'm looking

3:03

at the polls. I don't think my guy can pull it. Dosh, Should

3:05

I just sit home? And that's the

3:07

intent, that's the intent by

3:09

behind a lot of these public opinion

3:11

posters getting it so wrong. I

3:14

mean, you still have posters doing

3:16

registered voter surveys, which

3:20

is moronic. There there's no reason every poster should

3:22

be doing likely voter survey. So the point is a

3:26

lot of these people, a lot of these public opinion

3:28

posters, they're trying to impact the way

3:30

you see the elector. They're not trying to tell you what's actually

3:32

happening, and it's intentional.

3:36

So what I'm gonna do today is bring someone on

3:38

who I know is going to give you the truth. And

3:41

I know this because I used to work for them before

3:43

I got into Before I got into

3:46

television and the media, I worked

3:48

in politics. I worked on Capitol Hill for a number

3:50

of years. I worked on campaigns,

3:52

top Senate races, and

3:54

I was also a vice president of polling.

3:58

And I worked for this guy, Chris Wilson. He's

4:00

the founder and CEO of a company called

4:03

w p A Intelligence. The guy is

4:05

good. Right in one he was named

4:07

Poster of the Year by the American Association

4:10

of Political Consultants for his work. He also

4:13

did predictive analytics on the Glenn Yucan

4:15

for Governor campaign. He worked for Cruises

4:18

campaign in Obviously

4:20

he did very well there, didn't win. Trump pulled it out.

4:23

But point bing is, this guy is good. A lot

4:25

of this stuff he does is for private clients,

4:28

which means that he puts in a lot more leg work

4:30

to make sure that he's getting things right, unlike a

4:32

lot of these public opinion posters. But

4:34

the point of this podcast is to tell you

4:37

that we have which you guys know at home, everyone

4:40

listening to this knows we have the most important election.

4:42

This is for everything, This is for the

4:44

future of our country. I don't have kids yet. What kind

4:46

of country am I going to be bringing

4:48

children into by

4:50

the time I give birth? And I have kids and

4:53

I gotta find a husband for so we're talking. You know,

4:55

there's a little bit to go here in terms of timing.

4:58

But this election is important.

5:00

We all feel what everyone listening. We know how important

5:02

this election is. So I don't

5:04

want you to be discouraged because we

5:06

are being lied to and it's intentional.

5:10

So the point of this podcast is to bring someone

5:12

on who is going to tell us the truth, who's

5:14

going to get to the bottom of what's actually happening,

5:17

what the actual dynamics are at play

5:19

with the actual electorate looks

5:21

like as we head into this midterm

5:23

sprint. So that's what we're gonna

5:25

do today with Chris Wilson. Stay tuned, Chris

5:38

Wilson, It's been a while since we've caught

5:40

up. A lot's happened, like you know, the

5:43

destruction of the country and everything

5:45

following apart. It's

5:49

it's really bad. As you know, Chris, you've

5:51

been following this stuff for a really long time.

5:54

Look at the landscape, the political landscape

5:56

today. Where do things fall? What

5:58

does it look like to you? Is you are looking at pulling

6:00

every day? Well, it's you know, the

6:02

one thing that I have the benefit of that

6:05

most people don't is the leading indicator

6:07

of every morning when I walk in is you know

6:09

this least that used to work with me. Is we've

6:12

got pulling from all over the country.

6:14

And as you saw in the New York

6:17

Times poll this weekend, the

6:19

Republicans have a republic can go back

6:21

ahead in the generic ballot. Now,

6:23

we saw that happen uh

6:25

here at w P A Intelligence probably about

6:28

a week before the New York Times did. And

6:31

that is because we're seeing it directly from campaigns.

6:33

And so when you look at a national poll,

6:35

as you're well aware that you're gonna it's gonna

6:37

be heavily influenced

6:40

by number, by the sampling

6:42

that goes on in states like New

6:44

York or California that are a lot of the sample

6:46

size from national So it's always gonna be a little bit trailing

6:49

of what we're going to see from an individual

6:51

race. And it has.

6:53

I have been optimistic now for

6:56

probably about two and a half weeks, and

6:58

that is what makes it um

7:00

makes me bullish on not just the House,

7:03

but also the Senate. And I think the Republicans are going

7:05

to have a very good night. Uh

7:07

here, what are we out? Now? How many days

7:09

out? I should notice by heart since I'm gonna

7:12

finally come up for air exactly, and

7:14

it is. I think we're gonna You're gonna see Republicans

7:16

win a lot of races that nobody's expecting.

7:19

I give an example that it's one I'll mention when I'm

7:21

not involveding's a little bit easier to quote of somebody else's

7:23

numbers on my own. But Lezeldon

7:26

for governor of New York. Uh he is

7:28

right now within the margin of error against

7:30

the Democrat income of governor. That is

7:33

shocking. If anyone had told you or me

7:35

at the beginning the cycle that Republicans

7:37

could pick up the governorship in New York, we

7:39

would have just laughed and said, yeah, no chance, and

7:41

people laughed at Les Eldon when he left Congress to go run

7:43

for it. Yet I think that is likely

7:46

to happen, and so I think you're gonna see a sweep

7:49

here on November eight, at

7:52

the same level that Republicans saw in

7:54

n and two thousand

7:56

ten and two thousand fourteen, and

7:58

potentially even better because you've got things going on. As

8:00

you know that, we look up this morning and find out that Joe

8:03

Biden is pretty much emptying out the strategic

8:05

oil reserve. And let's not let's

8:07

not forget. This is the strategic oil

8:09

reserve that Donald Trump and Republicans in

8:12

the House and Senate tried to refiel

8:14

refill, right but just

8:16

a couple of short years ago, and Democrats

8:19

blocked him from doing it doing it because they didn't

8:21

want him to get a win. So, as

8:23

you mentioned, the level of destructions going on our company

8:25

and country right now is almost

8:27

at the catastrophic level. Democrats

8:30

blocked improvement levels, blocked building wall

8:32

blocks, like I said, refilling the strategic oil reserves.

8:35

And now you've got Democrats tapped reaping

8:37

what they have sown in that

8:39

they shut down our energy independence. We have

8:41

to import oil, and so they're emptying out

8:43

what Republicans put into it. You

8:45

see, you see migrants

8:48

of flooding our borders. Everyone's coming into our

8:50

borders. And Democrats now doing

8:54

declaring states of emergency because Republicans

8:56

are like, all right, enough, if you want, you can declare

8:58

in New York City or washing d C or Caglos

9:00

the sanctuary city or sanctuary state. We'll

9:02

ship them your way. And now they were, hold

9:04

on, we were just kidding, what didn't know what I mean that? So I

9:07

do. I am very optimistic about what's

9:09

going to happen, and I think, you know, one

9:11

more thing, I'll mention and then I'll shut

9:14

up. Is the biggest shift we have seen

9:17

over the course of the last few weeks is with independent

9:19

women. And make no mistake, independent

9:21

women were our loss

9:23

with and I'll even

9:26

categorizing geographically suburban independent

9:28

women was almost catastrophe back in two thousand

9:30

and eighteen. And I would have thought it

9:32

would take a generation to see

9:34

that undo itself. But COVID

9:37

shutdowns, educational shutdowns, and

9:40

Joe Biden's incompetence baffling

9:43

presidency elected

9:45

Glenn Yuncan who I was

9:47

involved in his race back in last cycle. And it's

9:49

going to have the impact of a

9:52

almost a Republican suite coming here in

9:54

a couple of short weeks. Well, and you mentioned, you

9:56

know, two thousands ten, I was at the NRCC there

9:58

where, you know, you do have when you have these wave

10:00

elections, as you've experienced, you know, you

10:02

you pick up seats you weren't expecting. And we've

10:04

got you know, Joe Biden has been in Oregon

10:08

campaigning for the Democrat candidate

10:10

candidate there, and Christine Drayson,

10:12

the Republican candidate, has a shot. Now

10:14

there's a third. You know, there's an independent Rudding

10:17

who's sort of playing spoiler there

10:19

as well. But I mean, the fact that Joe Biden is in

10:21

Oregon says a lot about what's coming.

10:24

You know, how big of a suite do

10:26

you think it could be? I mean, I know these things are tough

10:29

to tell, but you know, if it was today,

10:32

how big do you think this thing could be? I think

10:34

you would see Republicans pick up in the mid

10:36

thirties in the House. I think you would see

10:38

them pick up and not just hold

10:40

seats. Remember, they've got a hold seats like Pennsylvania

10:43

where you've got dr Osy

10:45

and Studman where he Fedderman

10:47

had a double digit lead for a long time. It's now

10:49

margin of air. Uh, not just

10:52

hold states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, that where

10:54

your Republicans retired, but go pick up. I think you're

10:56

gonna see Republicans pick up seats in

10:58

Nevada, in Georgia, in

11:01

Uh. I mean, Arizona is getting

11:03

tied. You've got Kelly only at one point over Masters.

11:06

You've I think these Masters ends up winning. So I think

11:08

you can see Republicans pick up two to five

11:10

seats in the Senate and then the governor's

11:13

level. And that is that's the one place

11:15

that I really just don't have a good feel

11:18

because it is like you said,

11:20

you mentioned Oregon. Uh. You know, if you're

11:22

not doing the pulling yourself there, you're not aware.

11:24

I think I think you're gonna see Gretchen WiBro

11:26

loose in Michigan, for example, and nobody

11:28

would have seen that a while back. You've

11:31

got carry Lake, who is up

11:33

now in Arizona over Hobbs.

11:35

We pulled out this morning from

11:37

the Daily Wire has carry Lake up three

11:40

points. I mean It is just it's shocking

11:42

to see how much movement is taking place

11:44

here in the course of the last week or so. The

11:46

only thing that worries me about Pennsylvania, and

11:48

I'd love to get your opinion on this, is

11:51

you have Master Roano, the candidate

11:53

running for governor, who's behind by like double

11:55

digits and pulling right now. So how

11:58

much would that impact Oz, who

12:00

is within the margin of error at least that's what it looks

12:02

like in pulling. Conversely, you have a

12:04

situation in Georgia where Brian

12:06

camp is up by you know, six

12:09

seven, you know, I think six in the real

12:11

clear politics average, who could then pull

12:14

herschel Walker with him? So so talk about that

12:16

dynamic and how that could play out

12:19

in your estimation. Well, it's interesting

12:21

in terms of the way and uh hopefully remember

12:23

some of us whenever you worked with us, and when you write

12:26

a poll, you write it to where the it's

12:28

the questions are asked and the order the ballot is asked

12:31

and a Pennsylvania, as you point out, the governor's race

12:33

is is at the top of the ballot. But

12:36

I'm less pessimistic

12:38

about mass Triano, I think than most people

12:40

are and it is. I

12:42

know him, I've helped, I've been involved in the race. I

12:44

wouldn't say I'm directly involved like I usually when

12:47

I've done a couple of pulls for him along the way. I

12:49

wish I was more involved because, frankly, I think he is a he

12:52

is someone who's painted unfairly

12:55

by the media. He is he's a soldier,

12:59

a blee, he's a PhDs at least a master's

13:01

degree. He's a brilliant man, and he's someone,

13:03

like I said, has been painted unfairly.

13:06

And I do think he ends up pulling out that race.

13:08

So I think it'll be close, but I do think

13:10

he and Oz both win because I believe you're

13:12

gonna see turnout in the rural areas

13:15

of Pennsylvania where Governor

13:17

Wolfe shut down schools and it

13:20

was a really disastrous

13:22

for a lot of families that

13:25

are now dealing with trying to get their kids

13:27

back up to speed. Uh from

13:30

educational standpoints, I think you're gonna see people

13:33

in the rural and suburban areas that would have voted

13:36

for Shapiro, the Democrat nominee, who are

13:38

gonna say, you know what, I'm not going to let

13:40

another Democrat destroy my child's education and

13:42

vote from Mastrolano instead of that. And I think so

13:45

I believe Oz and master Anio will

13:47

actually both end up winning. I don't. I'm

13:49

not gonna make prediction on who wins up pointing about more right

13:51

likely it would be Oz. But we've been shocked

13:54

in those situations before. And as you mentioned,

13:56

I mean, Brian camp Has has run a great

13:58

campaign. I would say, stay see Abrams

14:00

is run the kind of campaign she ran last time.

14:02

She spends a lot of time complaining about the last

14:05

election. And you know, she's really the one

14:07

true election denier in the United States these days,

14:10

and I think kimp is appointed by you

14:12

don't hear about that from the media now, You're

14:14

really don't. And that's what I love about Carry Lakes. There,

14:16

the Republican nominee who is a former member of the media

14:19

in Arizona. Every time somebody asked her about

14:21

being an election doesn't denier, they asked,

14:23

She asked, when's the last times when I asked Stacy Abrams about

14:25

that? And of course the answer is never, because they won't. So

14:28

it is It's really nice to see somebody

14:30

who is able to turn that around on the media

14:32

the way that the way that she does. But

14:35

I do think Kimp wins by double digits. So because of that,

14:37

I think Hersha Washer wins Um wins

14:39

as well. And the beauty of Georgia is they

14:42

changed the way their elections are counted

14:45

and to some extent and conducted. But you know,

14:47

the whole thing about oh they made it unfair, that was completely

14:49

proven false. During the primaries,

14:52

you had record turnout, and so

14:54

we're gonna know on election night what happens

14:56

in Georgia the same way we do in most

14:59

Republican in states. It seems to be

15:01

the Democrats that have trouble counting ballots

15:03

for some reason, but it will be it

15:05

won't be a situation like class time where we have to

15:07

wait, uh wait in a more an amount of time to

15:09

find out who wins. And the other aspects

15:12

on the Senate race in Georgia that you

15:14

know, I keep hearing people there are two independents in the

15:16

race. There's an independent and then there's

15:18

a social worker policy or social communist

15:21

political organizer who's on the ballot too, uh

15:23

And so a lot of people have suggested that it

15:25

might go to ROTHI and I don't think that will be the

15:27

case. I think Walker will get above there.

15:30

Let's take a quick commercial break

15:32

back with Chris Wilson on the other side. I

15:40

wanted to ask you, you know, you had mentioned the New

15:42

York Times poll previously. I think a

15:44

lot of people have, you know, sort of lost faith

15:46

and most of our institution, including posters.

15:49

I know that, you know, because you do a lot of work for

15:51

for private clients, You're putting an extra leg

15:53

work that a lot of these public posters are

15:55

doing. But yeah, I mean, we look at the election. You

15:57

look at that report from the American Station

16:00

for Public Opinion Research, and presidential

16:03

polls were the least accurate, and forty year

16:05

state polls were or were the least

16:08

accurate in two decades. I mean, we still

16:10

have posters doing registered voter surveys

16:13

right now. So I mean, kind of what's

16:15

your broader take on some of these public

16:17

opinion posters and why they seem to

16:20

keep getting things wrong? You

16:22

know, at least it's a really important question,

16:24

and it's one that I struggled to answer

16:27

because, as you mentioned, you do still have posters

16:30

political particularly media posters

16:33

that are doing registered voter

16:35

sampling. And what that means for anybody of you who

16:37

is uh, you know, he doesn't follow this stuff as closely

16:40

as least than I do. It means that what

16:43

is uh, they're talking to just anyone who's

16:45

a registered voter, and in some cases they're

16:47

talking to adults and asking them the registered

16:49

to vote, which means about of

16:51

people they talked to are lyine. So

16:54

the right way to do a poll right now is to build

16:56

a predictive model and then

16:58

take that predictive model and to those

17:00

who are most likely to vote. Now, that is how

17:02

we do ours. And it is as you say, it's

17:05

very different. Uh, what we see

17:07

is very different than what most most

17:09

media puts out. And it's

17:12

really there are crimes of comission

17:15

and crimes of omission. And the question

17:17

is is what's going on on the press side.

17:19

Are they trying to create polls that

17:22

showed the Democrat winning? And

17:24

I would submit to you is both. Unfortunately,

17:27

I don't think that anyone could

17:30

have done a poll in the state

17:32

of Wisconsin that had Joe Biden

17:34

up eighteen points the weekend before the election the way

17:36

the Washington Post did. And you guys can fact

17:38

checking on this go google it. Washington Post

17:40

the weekend before the election had Joe

17:43

Biden up eighteen points. He won by lesson

17:46

a point. I think it is very difficult

17:48

for anyone to argue that that had

17:50

no impact on voters. If

17:52

you believe that there that the candidate

17:54

you were supporting is going to lose by double digits,

17:56

it is likely to have an impact on whether

17:59

or not you turn out and vote. And so that

18:02

being the case, I think it is UM it's

18:04

unfortunate that we have to answer this question

18:06

because it does create uh, it creates

18:10

skepticism in our industry, and

18:12

it creates a situation where you uh,

18:15

where people just don't take polling seriously

18:17

anymore. And as you know, that should

18:20

not be the case because

18:22

right now we UM, we

18:24

are very good at predicting what happens for our clients.

18:27

And in fact, you won't stay working in

18:29

the political point industry if you tell

18:31

the candidate they're gonna win and they lose, and

18:33

just it's pretty fundamentally the case

18:36

is that you've got to be right on these things. So

18:38

what has happened? It gets back to your original question,

18:40

what is happening? The question is I just don't

18:43

know, because I don't know what they're doing

18:45

that to make it so wrong that how could

18:47

you create a situation or a poll that shows

18:50

Joe Biden when in my eighteen points where wins by less

18:52

than a point. And that's not the only place that happened,

18:54

by the way, I'll give you a few other examples.

18:56

In the Arizona election, the

18:58

point average at the end and had Kelly winning

19:01

by six, the only one by two. Uh.

19:03

In Georgia they had were off

19:05

by almost ten points. And particularly special election

19:08

in Iowa, the public polling had the Democrat

19:10

winning by two and in the average

19:13

did Johnny Arts won by six. In Maine,

19:15

the public pollint had get In winning by six

19:18

uh, collinses and Collins one by nine. And

19:20

I'll give you one more and I'll shut up about it. The public

19:22

polling in North Carolina had cunning him winning

19:25

by four, tell us one by two. So

19:27

you go through all those different situations

19:30

and you look at well, how could they be so wrong?

19:32

And the answer is, I just don't know. But I will

19:34

say this, when you look at public polling this year

19:37

that has a close race or has a Democratic by

19:39

a little bit, if I was betting on the predicted

19:41

markets, and I don't. I was then on the Republican

19:44

because there's something going on in public

19:47

media polling that tradition

19:49

that just consistently favors the Democrats.

19:51

And I can tell you our internal polling does not show

19:53

that, does not do that. It is um.

19:56

It is meticulous, and its approach

19:58

to making sure that we are adequately sampling

20:01

enough enough of every party and

20:03

that we're actually talking to people who are going to vote. And

20:06

that's challenging right now because particularly when

20:08

you look at who's going to vote in an off your

20:10

election like two, and you look at

20:12

the enthusiasm numbers twin Republicans and

20:14

Democrats, if you are doing a sample

20:17

which is the last off your election, which is what most media

20:19

polling is probably doing, you are going to oversample

20:22

Democrats. And that's going to be proved to be

20:24

as inaccurate today as

20:26

it was in twenty six and and

20:30

uh so it's just really it's a problem,

20:32

I think for the polling community, and

20:34

as you point out, is constantly um. It

20:37

is constantly evaluated by

20:39

the American Associates Public Opinion researchers, but

20:42

nothing's really ever done about it. I mean I'm

20:44

jaded. So I personally believe it's

20:46

intentional bias because we know how much of an impact

20:49

these polls have and mean, you you you've got you

20:51

know, don't like you had McConnell pull out of Arizona,

20:53

right, So, like these guys are looking at the polling

20:56

and they're making decisions about what races

20:58

to invest in. An Unfortunately, we could get

21:00

to a scenario where one of these races it's,

21:03

you know, we lose by a point or we lose by

21:05

you know, votes,

21:07

and what would you know? And if you had

21:10

originally kept that multimillion

21:12

dollar investment that email, whatever it was, I forget

21:14

what it was in Arizona, we maybe we could

21:16

have won it, right, And so I intentionally

21:19

think that these posters are trying to paint oblique

21:21

outbook for Republicans to impact

21:24

the overall election. It's just that Trump derangement

21:27

syndrome, that Republican derangement syndrome. That's

21:29

what that has seeped in to every aspect

21:31

of our society. But I wanted to get your take

21:34

on Uh, you know, I'm hearing it's

21:36

been tough. You know, I think it was like

21:39

the hidden Trump vote and and you know,

21:41

Republicans being less inclined to want to answer

21:44

or pick up talk to these people. How

21:46

much of a challenge has it been for for you guys

21:48

and trying to get accurate polls and Republicans

21:51

maybe being less inclined to identify themselves.

21:53

You know that's funny about it. Yes, you hear a lot about

21:55

that. The media complains about it, but we don't find that

21:57

problem and it is I'm

22:00

maybe that's because as can

22:02

you're well aware from working with us for a while, we were

22:04

meticulous in the building of our stratifications

22:06

at the beginning of the sample, of building our

22:08

sample frame. But I will say here is the

22:10

one place, like on the Young Can polling, most

22:13

polling had UH hadcall

22:16

winning. Ours did not. We had young Enough,

22:18

and we had him up for the last couple of weeks and

22:21

it wasn't. I don't think there was any polling that came

22:23

out that had young Enough except

22:25

for our internals. And I

22:28

think you were still working with at this point too. In sixteen,

22:31

as you may remember, our internal polling I did Ted

22:33

Cruzis polling US presidential campaign. Our internal

22:35

polling had us winning in Iowa. There

22:37

was not a single public poll that did

22:40

it all had that shared that notion.

22:42

They all had Trump winning and most of them had

22:45

had Ruby all moving into second

22:47

place. And you can go to Real Clear Politics

22:49

average and look at that. When we knew internally we were going

22:52

to win, And that comes from the

22:54

way in which we built out our sample based

22:56

on education. And I think that's one of our biggest

22:58

lessons from the last few so I goals is, yes,

23:01

it can be more difficult to interview

23:04

Republicans without a college degree.

23:07

It's very easy to get voters who have a college degree

23:09

on the phone. They're just easier. They don't

23:11

change phone numbers as much. They're more I could

23:13

answer and on them cell phone numbers. Just a lot of reasons

23:15

for that, whereas it does

23:18

take a lot of interviewing to get those without a college

23:20

degree. And so I think some of that probably

23:22

feeds into it. It certainly was the case in

23:24

Northern Virginia. I mean least, I would look at some polls

23:27

coming out of Virginia

23:29

in which they had the sample

23:31

in Northern Virginia sample

23:33

in Northern Virginia had a college career greater. Well,

23:36

that's a higher percentage of the electorate than

23:38

than has a college degree than in Cambridge, Massachusetts,

23:40

or Berkeley, California. It was just inaccurate,

23:43

and I would immediately point that out to the

23:45

people who sent it to me, like, oh, it's only

23:47

off my few points, Marge of Vera. No it's not, Marge

23:49

of Vera. It's like twenty five points off. And

23:52

if you've got a twenty five point subsample

23:54

that is a completely different ideological

23:57

bent than the electorate as a whole. It's

24:00

only to make the entire survey off by a point

24:02

or two. And so I think some of that feeds into

24:04

it. It's just it's maybe some laziness,

24:07

could be laziness on the part of the phone

24:10

center that does the interviewing. There's a lot of

24:12

things that feed into it. But I'll say this to

24:14

wrap it, to wrap up my

24:16

comments, there is no way an

24:19

accurate poll could have been done in Wisconsin the

24:21

weekend before the presidential election that showed your

24:23

mind, not by eighteen points. That is a crime

24:25

of comission. And to your point, it

24:27

is certainly one that kept people at home,

24:30

and it most likely had an impact on the

24:33

present on the election of the president of United States. And

24:35

I think that's the intention. I really do. I just

24:37

I think that, you know, we look

24:40

at the bias in every aspect every institution

24:42

in America, and I think it's it's got. The

24:44

posters are more interested in disrupting

24:46

the election than they are about capturing

24:49

the election, and I sadly, I think that's where

24:51

we are today. You know, I wanted

24:53

to ask you you look at like Democrats.

24:56

Their closing argument seems to be, we

24:58

need to abort babies up until the moment

25:00

of birth in January six? Have we

25:03

told you about January six? Which seems

25:05

like a strategic mistake, Chris, when

25:08

you know you've got families really suffering financially,

25:11

worried about being able to put food on the table, afford

25:13

the roof over the head, you know how

25:16

much of a strategic mistake is their messaging?

25:19

And it has their messaging been you

25:21

know, it's um. Yeah, there's no question

25:23

that they have completely overplayed

25:26

their hand on abortion. And the problem

25:28

is is you point out they are. And there's a great

25:30

article to Washing Examiner today by

25:33

Kaylee White and which is the

25:35

title is Democrats will finally being forced to own

25:38

their abortion extremism. And I think

25:40

what you've see. One of the reasons why you have seen independent

25:42

women shift in the way that they have is

25:45

twofold. One is, of course inflation

25:48

and the fact that I'll never forget.

25:50

We did a focus group of independent women

25:52

in Virginia and there's a woman there was what

25:54

it was all about, asking not the issue

25:56

of abortion, and one said, look,

25:58

you know, I have to buy grocery every day. That's put

26:01

gas in my car almost every day.

26:03

I have to pay taxes every

26:05

day. I don't get an abortion every day. So

26:07

no, that's not going, in fact my choice for governor.

26:10

I want to make sure my kids go to school and have a good

26:12

education. Those are things I worry about every day.

26:14

And so right now I think you're

26:16

seeing people make chore. It's kind of a Maslow's

26:19

hierarchy of issues, if you will, on

26:21

an from a standpoint of what what is

26:24

going to impact someone's life on a daily basis. So

26:27

that's a strategic mistake by Democrats.

26:29

But the other aspect of the strategic mistake is

26:31

Democrats are finding out that they are

26:33

the extremists on the issue of life

26:36

and for for stins of history, it's

26:38

um you can look at the eighteen sixty two

26:41

election, and the Democrat Party

26:43

in eighteen sixty two made their entire

26:46

message about Abraham

26:48

Lincoln, if you reelect, if you send Abraham

26:51

Lincoln Republican Congress, a Republican

26:53

Senate, he will free the slaves. That

26:55

was their entire message in eighteen sixty two. Now,

26:58

of course they don't own that today, they don't talk about

27:00

that very much, but that was the what you're

27:03

seeing today with the way they are treating an

27:05

issue of life, is the moral equivalent of the Democratic

27:07

Party in eighteen sixty two, where their entire

27:09

message was send us back to Congress

27:12

and we will make sure Abraham Lincoln doesn't free the slaves.

27:14

And it's like this year, we're saying, send us back to Congress and

27:16

we will make sure the Republicans don't say

27:18

babies. It's pretty wild, you know. And

27:21

you know, and most Americans aren't there. You know,

27:23

they don't believe in abortion up until the moment

27:25

of birth. They fully recognize that it's not a clump

27:27

of sales. As they try to tell us that,

27:30

you know, it doesn't make sense

27:32

logically or from a common sense standpoint.

27:34

You know, when you're looking at you know, you're talking

27:36

to these volder, these voters, you're doing

27:39

these focus groups, You're seeing the issues. What

27:41

are the top issues on Americans minds

27:44

right now? I know, no inflation, but are

27:46

there any surprises or is it pretty much what

27:48

we would think? You know, it really is

27:51

what you would think. It is. Inflation, is gas

27:53

prices, is grocery prices? And education

27:55

the only surprise And it maybe isn't a surprise

27:57

anymore, because as I mentioned, we really

27:59

saw this manifest itself in the young and

28:02

versus mccaulloff election, in which

28:04

Glenn Yuncan made it very clear

28:06

that he would not have closed schools, and

28:08

so he gave and he was able

28:11

to put to point to the Rhonda Santis

28:13

is the Kevin Stitz in Oklahoma, to unless

28:15

your extent to Greg Abbotts and Texas and show

28:18

the example of states that did not close

28:21

their schools and didn't fall

28:23

behind in education. And so what

28:25

that allowed is is that you

28:27

know, it's even to take the analogy

28:29

further. Uh, the night before

28:32

the election of Canada's Sunday on Monday

28:34

night, Terry mccauloff campaigned

28:37

not with Joe Biden, not with Kamala Harris,

28:39

not even with Barack Obama, but a campaign with Randy

28:41

Weinarter. And for anyone who doesn't know who that

28:44

is, she's head of the American Federation Teachers and she is

28:46

the one probably foremost responsible

28:49

for the for the shedding schools and

28:51

the keep and keeping schools closed. And

28:53

candidly we were high fiving on the campaign.

28:56

We need it. We need to check this to see

28:58

if it's an in kind of contribution to our to us.

29:01

And she continues to campaign on behalf of

29:03

Democrats. And what that has done is

29:05

it has made education. It has gone from an issue

29:08

that Democrats led by about twenty points

29:10

on just a couple of cycles ago, that

29:12

were two Republicans leading on it. So on

29:14

the key issues facing America today, inflation,

29:17

Republicans lead on gas

29:19

prices, Republicans lead on homeownership,

29:22

Republicans lead on the economy, and general

29:24

Republicans lead, but education Republicans

29:26

now lead. And in the most recent poll

29:29

polling that we're getting the highest

29:31

I have seen abortion on a

29:34

list of most important issues is seventh in the last

29:36

week seventh and Lisa,

29:38

I have not seen January six mentioned

29:41

in the verbatives on the survey much less as the

29:43

most important issue probably

29:45

since about Midsummer.

29:49

So that tells you, as you mentioned at the beginning,

29:52

what Democrats are closing on is taxpayer

29:55

funded abortion at any age through

29:58

the ninth through the ninth month and the canal

30:00

and oh yeah, January six. That's

30:02

not a winning message for them, and it's really I

30:04

think they're going to pay the price for it again in a couple of weeks

30:07

quick break more. In the mid terms, we

30:12

were being told with a straight face by

30:14

the media that Democrats could

30:17

somehow outrun an incredibly unpopular

30:19

president, when mid terms are always

30:22

a referendum on the party in charge

30:24

of the president in charge. But yet they

30:26

sat there with a straight face trying

30:28

to tell us that things were happening that

30:30

we're not talk about

30:32

that. Well, I think the key thing, I think

30:35

the part there that I'll be critical

30:38

of our party in this situation, unless with the

30:40

media, because we've spent so much time beating them up. I do think

30:42

there are some campaigns that didn't do a great

30:44

job for a while tying

30:46

their opponents to Joe Biden. So

30:49

I remember I was actually given

30:51

a talk at Freedom Works a few weeks ago and

30:54

John McLoughlin was a very talented poster,

30:56

a good friend, and he was actually the

30:58

polster on the campaign that I man Inch did in nineteen

31:00

ninety four, a long time ago. Right, it was David

31:03

McIntosh who's now head of the Club for Growth. I ran

31:05

his campaign for Congress. And John

31:08

pointed out I was in the audience,

31:10

had spoken just before him. He said, you know, at this point in nine

31:13

Chris was already morphing. Joe Hogs said, who

31:15

was our opponent at the time. He's now mayor of Indianapolis,

31:17

points stilling or interesting into

31:20

Bill Clinton's face. So why are Republicans

31:22

doing that? And I thought, you know, that's a great that's

31:25

a really important point. So I want to give John

31:27

credit for it. And I think there were a lot of Republican

31:29

campaigns that were running

31:31

talking about the issues, which is good. But let's face it,

31:34

whenever you are running astkinstan Comming in

31:36

most of these situations, we were trying to beat incumbents.

31:39

You take more Kelly versus Blake Masters

31:41

Mark Kelly. They voters

31:43

need to be told why they should fire him, and they should

31:46

fire him because he's a rubber stamp for Joe Biden.

31:48

They should fire Katherine Cortez Masco because

31:50

she's a rubber stamp for Joe Biden. They should

31:52

fire her off from the war on because she he is a rubber

31:54

stamp for Joe Biden. And I think a lot of campaigns

31:57

were running on issues are running on, spent

31:59

a little bit too much time telling the story as

32:01

to why they should be elected instead of talking there about

32:03

their opponents. And there's

32:06

probably a lot of altruistic sort of people

32:08

who listening to your podcast who are like, well, I believe

32:10

in that. I believe we should give people a reason to vote

32:12

for us, And yes, we absolutely should, but we

32:14

need to do it and move on. Because if

32:16

you want to get a job and somebody else, sorry has that job,

32:19

that person has to be fired before you can hire be hired.

32:21

That's just a basic tenant of the way political

32:23

campaigns work and the way people's decision ranking

32:26

process goes. So it is. I

32:28

think that was kind of a situation where maybe

32:31

a few too many campaigns waited a little

32:33

bit too long to begin tying

32:35

their opponent to Biden, and the media

32:38

probably did a good job head

32:40

faked us out of that and saying, oh, it's a people

32:42

are separating, so some Biden it's uh, they

32:44

can still win. So people bought

32:47

into that. Candidates brought into that. Campaigns one of

32:49

that Okay, let me go give people a reason as to why

32:51

they should vote for me. Well,

32:54

okay, you've done it. Move on. These last two weeks.

32:56

Any campaign that's spending a single dollar not mentioning

33:00

tying their opponent to Joe Biden is wasting that

33:02

dollars. That makes a lot of sense.

33:04

And I also just kind of a thought popped in

33:06

my thought bubble popped in my head when you're

33:09

talking about Biden, because I don't know if you saw herschel

33:11

Walker or with NBC and they asked him if

33:14

there's any common ground he could find with Biden. He's

33:16

like, well you likes ice cream. That's

33:19

actually really good line. Yeah. I

33:21

know, maybe it made me laugh because I thought that was

33:23

just like funny, you know, and it kind of you know, ribbing

33:25

him, but in a you know, in a likable

33:28

way. Um. You know, I know you're a busy guy.

33:30

You're you're working on races around the country.

33:32

You probably aren't sleeping right now. What

33:35

should people before we go you know, Chris,

33:37

what should people be looking for in

33:39

pulling and the dynamics of these races

33:42

as we head into these mid term

33:44

sprint? You know, we see you man the most important

33:46

one. The pole comes out. First of all, check the sample.

33:49

Are they talking to registried voters? If so, don't need

33:51

pay attention. Are they talking to adults? If so,

33:53

throw it away and never read the publication again. If

33:55

they're talking to likely voters, pay attention.

33:58

But the other thing you want to look at is whether

34:00

whether or not that likely voter

34:03

universe looks like a eighteen

34:05

sample and now I know I'm getting really deep into it, or

34:07

if it looks like a ten or twenty ten sample,

34:10

because two out

34:13

here it is that's the sleep thing.

34:16

Uh is gonna look a lot more like en

34:19

than it is gonna look like ten. So that's

34:21

number one. I think the second thing I would

34:24

do is take it with a grain of salt. If a pole

34:26

has a democrat up even double,

34:28

did you think about what you think about some of

34:30

the examples. I gave a little bit ago where

34:33

I talked about Greenfield

34:35

in Ohio being up by two and or its winning by

34:37

seven. When I talked about getting and being up by six

34:39

and Collins winning by nine. When

34:41

I talked about Cunningham being up by

34:44

four, until it's winning by two or even

34:46

in South Carolina where Lindsey Graham,

34:49

most of the poles at the end had him down or in a dead

34:51

heat, he won by ten. So don't

34:54

know, just because a pole has a Democrat up

34:56

by a point or two doesn't

34:58

mean that they're going to win. In fact,

35:00

most likely at that level, it probably

35:02

means the Republicans going to win. So when you see

35:05

a poll come out and a couple of

35:07

them I saw come out this morning out

35:09

of Pennsylvania that has a Federment up

35:11

over Oz by two, you might want to take

35:13

read into that that Oust is probably gonna win.

35:15

When you see one come out like came out

35:17

yesterday out of Georgia that had uh

35:20

Warnock and Walker in a tie, and

35:22

then that probably means the lockers up, particularly

35:24

it has Camp up six. So it's

35:27

I really get skeptical whenever I see the public

35:30

polling that has Democrats up, and I

35:32

look at the ones where I am involved in center

35:34

races I'm doing. Um, I've

35:37

mentioned las All a few times. Um

35:40

he is up he's he is awesome.

35:43

He's been up in seventh straight polls, and

35:45

I'll tell you he's he's most

35:48

likely to win that race. I'll tell

35:50

you Eric Eric

35:52

Schmidt in Missouri, who I'm

35:54

working with, I mean that he's gonna win that

35:56

thing going away. Republicans are going

35:58

to have a very good year, and I think if

36:00

any pulling that doesn't reflect

36:02

that, I would be suspective immediately. Good

36:05

to know, Chris Wilson. You're busy man.

36:07

I appreciate you taking the time. I know

36:09

this is a really important election, so we appreciate

36:12

your insight. Thanks so much, Chris. Happy

36:14

to do it, Lisa, great catch up. That

36:26

was Chris Wilson. I used

36:28

to work for him. He's a really really solid

36:30

poster. He does great work. And more than solid,

36:33

he's does great work. Uh. It takes

36:35

a lot of pride in getting things right with w p A

36:38

Intelligence. He's the founder and CEO,

36:41

been in the game for a long time, so you

36:44

know, it just goes to show you how much we're led to

36:47

by all these people, right, you know, And that's the whole

36:49

point of this podcast is trying to identify

36:51

people like him who can really

36:53

get to the bottom of what's happening, which you're you're not going

36:55

to get swere in the media, right, You're not gonna get

36:57

it when you turn on TV and they're still doing register voter

37:00

surveys or they're talking to the same people

37:02

who have gotten every single thing wrong for

37:04

forever, right, but you know, so

37:07

hopefully we'll learned a lot from that.

37:09

Appreciate you guys listening to the show. I want to thank

37:11

John Cassie On, my producer, for putting it together

37:14

every Monday and Thursday, but you can listen throughout

37:16

the week. Feel free to leave us a review on

37:19

Apple Podcasts, give

37:21

us a rating, share with your friends, your family.

37:23

Appreciate you guys listening. Until

37:25

next time.