0:04

I'm for stopping Iran very simply

0:06

from having a nuclear weapon. They

0:08

can't have a nuclear weapon. I

0:10

want Iran to be great

0:12

and prosperous and terrific. When

0:18

I went to the Iranian parliament the

0:20

other day, people said, I've never

0:22

remember a time when an American journalist

0:25

was there inside the Iranian parliament

0:27

watching the sessions, talking to member of

0:29

the National Security Committee. It made

0:31

the blogs. Hello

0:36

and welcome to the world. I'm

0:38

Yalda and I'm currently in

0:41

London and I'm Richard Engel and I

0:43

am in Tehran at the moment the

0:45

capital of Iran and it is wonderful

0:47

to be here interesting times and Great

0:49

to see you Yalda. We're gonna have

0:51

a lot to talk about today. This

0:53

is a pretty rare trip for me

0:55

I've been to Iran a few times,

0:57

but I haven't been here for years And

1:00

Allah has changed since I was last

1:02

in this country. A lot is

1:04

going on. Diplomacy, nuclear

1:06

talks, cultural changes seem

1:08

to be afoot here. It's

1:11

an exciting time and I can't wait to

1:13

unpack it. Yeah, absolutely. I can't

1:15

wait to hear about it. Richard,

1:17

of course, we were both off last

1:19

week and you were traveling. So

1:22

really great to see you again and

1:24

to be back on the podcast. So let's

1:26

get started. And for those of you

1:28

who aren't already subscribed, thank you for

1:30

those who did it. Please do. It

1:33

helps us. It helps us bring

1:35

this show to you. So

1:37

please do that. And if you

1:39

can and you want to and feel

1:41

inspired, write in with thoughts, comments,

1:43

questions. We love receiving them at the

1:45

usual place, theworldatsky

1:48

.uk. So

1:57

I am in Iran and

2:00

itself is an extraordinary statement

2:02

because this is generally not

2:04

a country that lets in

2:06

many journalists, certainly doesn't let

2:08

in many American reporters. And

2:11

I'm here for about two weeks,

2:13

which is a pretty long trip

2:15

for Iran. When I came in

2:17

the past, I got a five

2:19

day visa. Every step we took,

2:21

we were accompanied by minders. This

2:24

time I have a longer visa,

2:26

and when I'm out on the

2:28

streets and been walking around, maybe

2:31

we're being followed in the background, maybe

2:33

we're being monitored, but we're not

2:35

required to leave the hotel with binders.

2:37

We are able to walk around,

2:39

talk to people, go shopping,

2:41

do interviews, do interviews on

2:43

the streets, and

2:45

people are giving us a very

2:48

warm welcome. I was in the

2:50

Grand Bazaar just yesterday. The central

2:52

market, the covered market, sort of

2:54

looks like the one in Istanbul,

2:56

miles of corridors, and they sell

2:58

spices and carpets. It's a beautiful,

3:00

fascinating place. And as

3:02

I was walking around, first people

3:04

thought that maybe we were a group of

3:06

tourists, and I could hear them saying, oh, Americans

3:08

are tourists. And they were very excited. And

3:10

I was getting thumbs up. And then when we

3:12

took out the camera, it was pretty clear

3:15

that we were journalists and we were interviewing people.

3:17

And they were more excited. And

3:19

they were more happy because

3:21

they thought it's a sign. It's a

3:23

sign that this country is opening

3:25

up. These nuclear talks

3:28

that are going on

3:30

between the United States and

3:32

Iran have created a

3:34

lot of excitement. They've created

3:36

a lot of excitement because people hope

3:38

that it means that there won't

3:40

be an attack on Iran, even though

3:42

President Trump says it's still on

3:44

the table and the Israelis have talked

3:46

about carrying out attacks on the

3:48

nuclear sites numerous times. So they

3:50

think, OK, if there's talks, there

3:53

won't be some sort of military strikes.

3:55

And they're really hopeful that it

3:57

will lift sanctions and that a

3:59

deal will allow Iranians to get

4:01

out of this box that they

4:03

are living in. Because when

4:05

you're here and live here, You

4:07

can't really do business with

4:09

the world. You're cut off. You

4:12

can't use credit cards. You can't

4:14

send money abroad. It's

4:16

very difficult to travel.

4:18

If you have a bank account

4:20

and you have it in

4:22

Iranian currency, you're at the whims

4:24

of inflation. So

4:27

people here feel

4:29

maybe they can break out of

4:31

this box, re -engage with the world

4:33

politically, socially, economically, and

4:36

that could... people's

4:38

daily lives. A country

4:40

of 90 million that wants

4:42

to trade, travel, engage

4:44

is now feeling a sense

4:47

of excitement that it

4:49

might be coming and that

4:51

is making it a

4:53

very exciting time to be

4:55

here. Yeah, absolutely,

4:57

Richard. for

5:00

decades. The Iranian people have survived

5:02

under these sanctions at different points when

5:04

they've gone head to head with

5:06

the West, when the regime has gone

5:08

head to head with the West.

5:11

And often the regime has tried to

5:13

point the finger of blame on

5:15

the United States, on the West for

5:18

the state of the nation. And they've

5:20

said it's because of the sanctions

5:22

that you are living the way that

5:24

you are. But we have seen

5:26

now, certainly in the last few

5:28

years, that the Iranian people

5:30

are saying to the regime, enough. We've

5:32

had enough of you. We want

5:34

change. We want you gone. And we've

5:37

seen that in different movements. We

5:39

saw that in the Green Revolution in

5:41

2009. We saw, just in the

5:43

last couple of years, with the women's

5:45

movement, where there was an uprising

5:47

led by the so -called TikTok generation,

5:49

where these young teenage girls stood up

5:52

and said to the regime, we

5:54

are not going to be forced to

5:56

wear this headscarf off the back of

5:58

the death of a young Masa

6:00

Amini. We

6:02

can see the different

6:04

crossroads that this nation

6:07

continues to be in, but

6:09

I'm so fascinated, Richard,

6:11

because we both covered the story of

6:13

the women's movement over the course of

6:15

the last couple of years. Just tell

6:18

me, being in Iran, as you say,

6:20

really difficult to get into the country,

6:22

I certainly haven't. sort of attempted to

6:24

go. I worked at the

6:26

BBC for years and it was really difficult

6:28

for a BBC journalist to enter the

6:30

country. But this is now a

6:32

moment where suddenly the regime is

6:34

opening up and we know in the

6:36

past that journalists have been arrested.

6:39

An Italian journalist a few months ago

6:41

was arrested and the Italians had

6:43

to release an Iranian to get

6:45

the journalist out. First of

6:47

all just as you say you feel

6:49

more welcome there at ten days is a

6:51

long time to be there But just

6:53

what are you seeing when you capturing in

6:55

terms of the mood more than ten days? We've

6:57

asked for an extension. I think it's going to be

6:59

granted And that's

7:01

not the kind of reception that

7:03

I've had here in the

7:05

past. It's not that I'm

7:07

naive, you know, just because we're being welcomed

7:09

and we're giving more access and gotten

7:11

a visa and I'm getting some thumbs up

7:13

from people on the streets. It doesn't

7:15

mean, oh, everything is great, you know, everything

7:17

is perfect in Iran. That would be,

7:19

you know... would be foolish. I've been doing

7:21

this business too long to be fooled

7:23

by that. But let's talk about the women.

7:25

And then we'll talk about the nuclear

7:27

issue because it's fascinating and people might not

7:29

understand it. But let's talk about the women's issue

7:32

in particular. This is one

7:34

of the most sensitive issues and

7:36

one of the issues that's really

7:38

at the cultural and political heart

7:40

of the regime is women. and

7:43

women's dress and women's rights

7:45

and how women present themselves

7:47

in public. You are

7:49

officially required as a woman

7:51

here to wear a veil in

7:53

public. And in every restaurant

7:55

you go into, there's a sign

7:57

on the wall, and there's

7:59

a picture of a woman wearing a

8:01

veil. And it says, please, in

8:04

these premises, according to the law,

8:06

wear Islamic dress. There

8:08

are usually multiple signs in every shop,

8:10

every cafe, in the hotel where I'm

8:12

staying, in the lobby, everywhere these signs

8:14

up. And people aren't listening to them anymore.

8:17

And people aren't listening to them brazenly.

8:20

You walk down the street and

8:22

I would say just by

8:25

observation, maybe

8:27

30%, 40 %

8:29

of women are not

8:31

wearing head scarves anymore. They

8:34

will have a little scarf.

8:36

around their necks in case there's

8:38

an issue in case maybe

8:40

like a police officer comes up

8:42

to them they can quickly

8:44

just put it over their over

8:46

their hair but they're

8:48

just keeping it around their necks and

8:50

they're walking by the police

8:52

stations they're walking by

8:55

government ministries i've seen people

8:57

walking with the women

8:59

with their hair out

9:01

walking right past groups

9:03

of of of

9:05

what you would consider the morality

9:07

police, and they don't say

9:09

anything. They have stopped

9:11

enforcing it on a

9:13

daily basis, and that

9:15

is a significant change.

9:18

I don't think they've given up. I'm not

9:20

sure that this is the end of the

9:22

road, but... was a movement here. It

9:25

lasted a couple of

9:27

years. It turned quite violent.

9:29

There was a death

9:31

of at least one. Several

9:33

protesters had violent encounters. It

9:35

was a brutal crackdown. But it

9:38

seems to have made a difference

9:40

because the government, at least

9:42

right now, has decided

9:44

it doesn't want that fight and

9:46

it is not picking that fight. And

9:49

people here are hoping that

9:51

that is the start of significant

9:53

changes now. It could be

9:55

temporary It could be that the

9:57

government has other priorities right

9:59

now and therefore is put this

10:01

one on the back burner But

10:03

it is happening and it is

10:05

obvious and people are talking

10:07

about it. I did a television

10:09

interview American television with

10:11

a woman just a couple of

10:13

days ago long hair Down to her

10:15

down to below her shoulders And

10:18

she did the interview

10:20

on camera without

10:22

a headscarf on. Now,

10:25

that would have been unthinkable. Even in North

10:27

Tehran a few years ago, you know, people

10:29

may not have been wearing them or they

10:31

were barely wearing them. But if we interviewed

10:33

them on camera, they would quickly, you know,

10:35

wrap themselves up so they wouldn't get in

10:37

trouble, even if they found it personally annoying. Now,

10:41

she said, ah, let's do it and didn't

10:43

care. And that's a

10:45

sense of confidence that I've never

10:47

seen in this country. Yeah,

10:49

I mean, that is incredibly brave.

10:51

We can't overstate how brave

10:53

it is because it was a

10:55

death sentence before for these

10:57

women. It was unthinkable for them

10:59

not to... their headscarves on.

11:01

It was very much linked to

11:03

the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

11:05

And this has been something that's

11:08

been enforced for decades. So

11:10

for these women to say now,

11:12

I don't want to wear

11:14

this. And why this is linked,

11:16

Richard, to the current state

11:18

of play needs to be explained

11:20

as well. Because of course,

11:22

we are now seeing this

11:24

regime in talks again with

11:26

the Trump administration and let's

11:28

just remind our audiences where

11:30

we're at because when we

11:32

talk about the original Iran

11:34

nuclear deal, the one that

11:36

the Obama administration put together.

11:39

Now, that was about a

11:41

decade in the making. And

11:43

it was, you know, the Europeans were on board, the

11:46

Americans were driving it. And

11:48

it was basically to curb

11:50

Iran's nuclear program to ensure that

11:52

Iran wasn't going to weaponize

11:54

its nuclear program and be a

11:56

threat to the region and

11:58

the global community. Now,

12:01

what happened? to

12:03

that deal, which was the

12:05

JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive

12:08

Plan of Action. You

12:10

remember during Donald Trump's

12:12

first administration, he came in

12:14

and he ripped up

12:16

the JCPOA, the Iran nuclear

12:18

deal. And he said, you

12:20

know, that he felt that the Obama

12:22

administration had made so many concessions that

12:25

he would have walked away from it.

12:27

He described it as the worst deal

12:29

ever. And he applied at that point,

12:31

maximum pressure on Iran.

12:34

And so another deal. to

12:36

ease sanctions to bring Iran to

12:38

the nuclear table was never really

12:40

enforced, not under the Biden administration.

12:42

It was toyed with, it was

12:44

flirted with, but it never, never

12:46

came about. Trump has

12:49

decided that he's going to send

12:51

a clear message to the

12:53

Iranian regime. You either come

12:55

to the negotiating table, you make

12:57

concessions, or we're going to smash

12:59

you. essentially. That is the message

13:01

that he sent. He sent a

13:03

letter to Ayatollah Khamenei a few

13:05

weeks ago and basically said, look,

13:07

we want to talk, you've got

13:09

to come to the table. There

13:12

are many people who are

13:14

now saying basically that it is

13:16

going to be a revival

13:18

of the JCPOA. The Iranians

13:20

want it. The Americans want

13:22

it. The Trump administration needs

13:24

this deal. They need a

13:26

win of some sort. Trump

13:29

made all sorts of claims

13:31

during the campaign. And as

13:33

we sort of head towards

13:35

100 days of his second

13:37

term, three months in,

13:39

what he has said from the

13:41

beginning is, I'm going to make a

13:43

deal on ending the war in

13:45

Gaza. The ceasefire broke

13:47

down. I'm going to bring an

13:49

end to the war in Ukraine within

13:52

24 hours. I mean within It's

13:54

been almost a hundred days. He hasn't

13:56

been able to bring the two

13:58

sides to the negotiating table So the

14:00

one liked in all of this

14:02

for Trump is Iran now because

14:04

they have had several rounds of

14:06

talks in in Rome in Oman

14:08

They're looking at another round of

14:10

talks soon And why this matters,

14:12

what you're saying about the women in

14:14

the situation in Iran to circle it all

14:16

back, is the Iranian regime needs

14:19

this too. We've seen over the course

14:21

of the last year, the

14:23

proxies that they have built up

14:25

in the region, Hezbollah, Hamas,

14:27

the Houthis, the groups that they

14:29

have backed, this so -called axis

14:31

of resistance or axis of

14:33

evil or upheaval, has more

14:35

or less been dismantled by

14:38

the Israelis. They

14:40

are facing backlash

14:42

at home through what you're

14:44

talking about now, not just

14:46

because of the sanctions and

14:48

people are living in dire

14:50

conditions, but also because people

14:52

are saying, we don't want you anymore. And

14:55

thirdly, they want to be able

14:57

to make some kind of deal now

14:59

with the Americans. And that's,

15:01

first of all, exactly brilliant

15:03

summary of where we are

15:05

right now in the JCPOA

15:08

that broke down. So

15:10

I mentioned why the Iranian people want

15:12

a deal, right? They don't want to

15:14

be attacked. They don't want to fight

15:16

with the United States. They don't want

15:18

to see Tehran bombed. Tehran, by the

15:20

way, is a huge city. You know,

15:22

it's a city on the size of

15:24

Istanbul, with you include the outer suburbs.

15:27

This is a city of roughly

15:29

20 million people. Iran has about

15:31

85, 90 million people, total

15:33

population, and a large percentage

15:36

of them live in Tehran.

15:39

Tehran... don't want to see bomb.

15:41

They don't want to see war. They watch

15:43

what happened in Gaza. They don't want any

15:45

part of it. They don't want it. They

15:47

want to do business with the world, and

15:49

they want sanctions to be lifted, and they

15:51

hope this deal will allow that. Now,

15:54

people are talking about the

15:56

nuclear deal, the enrichment

15:59

deal, and you don't need to be

16:01

a nuclear scientist to understand the deal. It's

16:03

pretty simple. Shall we talk about it for

16:05

a second? Go ahead. There

16:08

is a nuclear program here. It's based on

16:10

uranium. And uranium, of

16:12

course, is an element. It's

16:14

a radioactive element. And

16:16

you can dig it out of the ground. But

16:18

when you dig it out of the ground, it

16:20

doesn't do very much. It just sort of emits

16:22

radiation. In order to make it useful, you

16:24

have to enrich it. And the way

16:26

you enrich uranium, one of

16:28

the ways is you spin

16:31

it. you put it a centrifuge

16:33

and you spin it and

16:35

spin it and spin it and

16:37

spin it until it gets

16:39

more and more concentrated because the

16:41

heavier bits are thrown out

16:43

toward the end of a centrifuge

16:46

and you enrich it. And

16:48

that's what it's really all about

16:50

because in order to have

16:52

a weapons grade, to have weapons

16:54

grade uranium, it needs to

16:56

be about 90 % pure. So

16:58

highly enriched, really dangerous uranium that

17:01

you could use to make

17:03

a nuclear weapon. And

17:05

the IAEA believes that

17:07

they have enough 60 %

17:09

enriched uranium that they

17:12

could take that 60%,

17:14

quickly move it up

17:16

to 90 % and

17:18

then make a bomb. What

17:21

the deal would be... don't

17:23

exactly know the deals are

17:25

happening behind closed doors, but

17:28

the general framework would be

17:30

that Iran would agree not

17:32

to enrich very to high

17:34

levels, not to enrich to

17:36

anything close to a weapons

17:39

grade uranium. They would keep

17:41

it at low levels, which

17:43

you can still use to

17:45

make power. They would

17:47

take the the more highly enriched stuff

17:49

that they already have, send it out

17:51

of the country, they would

17:54

be allowed to make the

17:56

low level enriched uranium for

17:58

civilian purposes, and that they

18:00

would be monitored and have

18:02

frequent monitors to make sure

18:04

that they don't go above

18:06

a certain threshold. And that

18:08

in exchange for doing that, getting

18:10

rid of the highly enriched

18:12

uranium, allowing in monitors that

18:14

it would get sanctions relief.

18:16

the threat of a military action

18:18

would go away and there

18:20

would be peace, prosperity and a

18:22

new page for Iran. It's

18:25

possible. It's not and it's not that

18:27

different. That was the basic framework of

18:29

the Obama deal. And

18:31

many Iranians believe that Trump tore up

18:33

that deal and he's going to and

18:35

he's going to fight to put a

18:37

very similar deal back in place, but

18:39

that he tore it up because he

18:41

didn't like Obama. He tore it up

18:43

because Obama did it and he wants

18:46

the deal. that he does. And

18:48

so even if it's very similar, it

18:50

will be his deal with his man,

18:52

and he would get the... credit for it?

18:54

Not just the credit, but the Nobel

18:56

Peace Prize that he is after. I mean,

18:58

if he gets one of these deals,

19:01

whether it's Ukraine, whether it's Iran, whether

19:03

he changes the JCPOA

19:05

even slightly, he we

19:07

know is after this Nobel

19:09

Peace Prize. And so if

19:11

he is able to strike

19:14

something out of this with

19:16

the Iranians, whether or not

19:18

it's a two -pager, the

19:20

original JCPOA was this comprehensive

19:22

document that had the biggest

19:24

brains in terms of understanding

19:26

nuclear programs on the planet,

19:29

working on it from Europe

19:31

and the United States. But

19:33

this could be quite a

19:35

sort a two -pager that he

19:37

brings out slightly tweaks, makes a

19:39

few changes. Now, the biggest

19:41

problem here, Richard, I think, is...

19:44

If the United States asks for too

19:46

much or if the United States

19:48

asks for too little and you know

19:50

The Israelis that I've been speaking

19:52

to have said the concern is

19:54

they will ask for too little They

19:56

will make so many concessions and

19:59

give the Iranians so much in return

20:01

the Iranians will think well We

20:03

need to come to the negotiating

20:05

table for all of the reasons that

20:07

we've just stated whether it's sanctions

20:09

relief whether it's because they're proxies and

20:11

the groups that they've been supporting

20:14

for decades have been smashed in

20:16

the region or whether it's domestic problems

20:18

that they're currently facing and this

20:20

rising, this uprising of voices that are

20:22

turning against the regime, they need

20:24

this as much as the Trump

20:26

administration does. So we'll have to see

20:29

how it plays out and whether

20:31

the Americans do make the sort of

20:33

concessions that the Israelis certainly are

20:35

concerned that they will. So the

20:37

other question is... Well, what about the

20:39

regime? Why does the regime care?

20:41

The regime wants this deal. The regime

20:44

says it wants this deal. The

20:47

supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei

20:49

says that he's endorsed the

20:51

deal. And I was

20:53

at Friday prayers. I was

20:55

one of the first Westerners

20:57

inside the main mosque at

20:59

Tehran University on Army Day

21:01

when it was full of

21:03

soldiers and people who would

21:05

be considered real hardliners and

21:07

I was listening to the

21:10

sermon and the preacher was

21:12

saying, we don't

21:14

trust the Americans, don't think

21:16

they're our friends, but we're still

21:18

gonna talk because, and

21:20

then he cited Quranic verses and Islamic

21:22

traditions, it was a sermon after

21:24

all, to say why negotiations are important

21:26

and why it's important to have

21:28

dialogue even with people you don't agree

21:31

with. So the question is, why?

21:33

Why? Why are they doing this? One,

21:35

I think they're feeling a lot

21:37

of economic pressure because the economy here

21:39

is in difficult state. It's

21:42

difficult for the people to trade and

21:44

to, you know, they can't use credit cards

21:46

and sell things. And, you know, this

21:48

country produces a lot of beautiful things, not

21:50

just carpets and pistachios and saffron, although

21:52

all those are fabulous. But they

21:54

also have industry and they want to engage

21:56

and they want to sell and they want

21:58

to They want the world to know their

22:00

market and they want it to sell things. The

22:03

government needs that income because right now

22:05

they're basically just selling their oil to

22:07

China and they're using the fleets of

22:09

old tankers and it's a very, there's

22:11

a lot of smuggling and it's complicated

22:13

and it's expensive for them because anytime

22:16

you have to operate in sort of

22:18

the gray economy, you lose a lot

22:20

of money. So they need the money,

22:23

that's definite. They

22:25

are in a weakened position

22:27

for the exact reasons you mentioned.

22:30

Look what's just happened in the last couple of

22:32

years. Iran, its

22:34

strength, its power was

22:36

always through its ability to

22:39

maintain control at home,

22:41

which through its security services,

22:43

through surveillance, through

22:45

the laws and through

22:47

the different security apparatuses

22:49

here. their

22:52

ability to protect themselves by

22:54

a network of proxies,

22:56

a network of armor. I

22:58

like to think of

23:00

it as Iran's outer coat

23:02

of armor. And

23:04

that outer coat of armor, let's

23:06

call it weapons, if

23:08

you will, was

23:10

strategically placed. around Israel in

23:13

order to send a message

23:15

to Israel don't think about

23:17

bombing us because we can

23:19

hurt you and They they

23:21

had very close relations with

23:24

Hamas in Gaza right on

23:26

the border, of course with

23:28

Israel They had very very

23:30

close relations with Hezbollah, which

23:32

is right to the north

23:34

of Israel They had a

23:37

very very close relations with

23:39

Bashar al -Assad of Syria all

23:41

three of those are either

23:43

decimated, weakened, or

23:45

in Bashar al -Assad's case, gone. So

23:48

their armor has been

23:50

removed. So are

23:52

they coming to the table now

23:55

because they have no choice,

23:57

because they need the money and

23:59

because they're not in the

24:01

same military position that they were?

24:04

Or is this real? Is this

24:06

a real change? Is this the

24:08

start of a process That

24:10

is going to be transformative

24:12

and I think Iranians don't really

24:15

know they're hopeful that it's

24:17

it's it's it's the latter But

24:19

they're also willing to take

24:21

the risk That that it's the

24:23

former that even if Iran

24:25

is doing this because it's under

24:27

pressure Iranians will say well

24:29

who cares as long as they're

24:31

taking these steps for whatever

24:33

reason maybe it leads to a

24:35

more positive outcome for them

24:37

politically socially economically But the

24:39

change, at least for now,

24:41

is happening. It's real. Now,

24:44

I don't know if this window is going to close. It's

24:47

possible that in a couple of months,

24:50

Trump decides, you

24:53

know, I've tried my best. I

24:55

wanted these negotiations to work, but they

24:57

were a failure and the military

24:59

strikes happened. That's still very possible. You

25:01

know, again, neither of us were

25:03

born yesterday. And there are

25:06

splits within the administration. Those

25:08

hardliners, Iran hawks, you know, the

25:10

Mike Walters of the world

25:12

who say, listen, you know, we

25:14

know how this regime operates

25:16

and they are just trying to

25:18

buy time here. They want

25:20

a nuclear bomb. They want to

25:22

acquire a nuclear weapon. And

25:24

therefore, they are just saying what

25:26

needs to be said because

25:28

it's a short -term sort of

25:30

gain for Trump. And maybe. And

25:32

maybe. But either way, it's

25:34

happening. We are in this window

25:36

now. a

25:38

window opens more and

25:40

more air comes

25:42

in, or the window

25:44

is smashed, closed, and

25:47

breaks into shards of glass, we

25:49

will see. And I think we

25:51

will see in the next few months.

25:53

But at the moment right now,

25:55

diplomacy does seem to be moving quickly

25:57

and does seem to be making

25:59

some Richard, I

26:01

do want to sort of ask

26:04

a little bit more on

26:06

that because there are those within

26:08

Israel, for example, that are

26:10

incredibly concerned that actually, you

26:12

know, I mean, I spoke

26:14

to some contacts yesterday who said, if

26:16

we go back to the JCPOA,

26:18

that particular deal, it's the... best of

26:21

the sort of the worst deals

26:23

that could possibly, the worst outcomes that

26:25

could possibly come out of this. So

26:27

it's not so bad if we go

26:30

back to that Obama nuclear deal. There

26:32

are others who believe, as we

26:34

were just saying, that actually Iran

26:36

is just, you know, they're playing

26:38

games and they, just like they

26:41

are allowing women to wear headscarves,

26:43

but actually the long term plan

26:45

is to get everyone back into

26:47

line. that they have

26:49

the same attitude towards their nuclear

26:51

ambitions, that they do want

26:53

to weaponize their nuclear program. And

26:55

it could all be a

26:57

trick. It could be that once

26:59

they get more surveillance technology

27:01

in place and they do have

27:03

good relations with China, they

27:06

could easily, if they could afford it, buy

27:08

AI -enabled cameras that could

27:11

detect women wearing headscarfs and

27:13

launch a major crackdown, all

27:15

of these things are possible.

27:17

And it is It is

27:19

possible that we suddenly have

27:22

a reverse in this trend,

27:24

certainly possible. But the

27:26

government here is one of

27:28

the most open -minded and flexible

27:30

the president that they've had

27:33

in many years. And

27:35

the hardliners recognized, there were

27:37

elections. You remember, Raisi, the former

27:39

president, died in that helicopter

27:41

crash. This mysterious helicopter crash, right?

27:43

And he was a hardliner.

27:45

He was someone who people thought

27:47

could be the next supreme

27:49

leader. The supreme leader is the

27:51

Ayatollah who runs the theocracy.

27:53

The president is the one who

27:55

manages the day -to -day bureaucracy

27:57

of the country. And

28:00

when Raisi was president, but

28:02

he was potentially going to

28:04

be the next Supreme Leader

28:06

when he died in that

28:08

helicopter crash, they had to

28:10

have snap elections. And

28:12

the current president won those

28:14

snap elections, very low turnout. And

28:16

the hardliners didn't do very

28:18

well. And that sent a message,

28:21

I think, that was read

28:23

loud and clear that, hey, we

28:25

can't push too far. We

28:27

don't really have the support

28:29

that we think we do at

28:31

the moment. So are they

28:33

biting their time and is this

28:35

all a game? I don't

28:38

know. I'm not even sure they

28:40

know. But the important thing

28:42

is there is this window and

28:44

timing matters. And can I

28:46

tell you something? The biggest thing

28:48

that I hear from Iranians

28:50

every single day is they tell

28:52

me the world doesn't understand

28:55

us. The world thinks that Iranians

28:57

wake up every morning, burn

28:59

Israeli flags, build American

29:01

weapons, kill Jews for

29:03

dinner and that that's

29:06

their life of radicalism. It's

29:09

generally, I would say, pro -American

29:11

on the streets. It's

29:13

generally pro -Western. People like what

29:15

happens in Europe. They want

29:17

to go to Europe. They

29:19

want to travel abroad. I'm

29:22

not saying they're not religious,

29:24

but it's not a country

29:26

of fanatics by any means.

29:29

People pray. And people don't

29:31

pray. It is

29:33

not the Taliban. It

29:35

is not even as I

29:37

would say as religious on a

29:39

popular level as some countries

29:41

in the Arab world, in the

29:43

Middle East. It is a

29:46

different culture, a different people that

29:48

they believe, that Iranians

29:50

believe. the world doesn't

29:52

understand. And that's one of the

29:54

main reasons they want to re -engage. I

29:56

would say a third reason. One, first reason

29:58

to avoid a war. Second is so that they

30:00

can do business. And the third is so

30:03

that people can get to know them and get

30:05

to know what they say is the real

30:07

Iran. Yeah, absolutely. I

30:09

mean, as you say, an

30:11

extraordinary situation developing now where

30:13

just in the space of

30:15

a few weeks, we could

30:17

potentially be in a situation

30:19

where they could get into quite

30:21

serious talks about how to

30:23

curb Iran's nuclear program. Richard,

30:25

we're going to take a

30:28

break and come back and

30:30

talk about the fact that

30:32

we are getting close to 100

30:34

days of this administration and

30:36

where we we at in

30:38

terms of foreign policy. Welcome

31:00

back. So now it has been,

31:02

let's say, about 100 days into the

31:04

Trump administration. Let's talk

31:06

about that. He said

31:08

he was going to fix Ukraine on day one.

31:11

There was a little bit of an

31:13

Easter ceasefire that never really happened,

31:15

according to both sides. They both accused

31:17

each other of violating it. So

31:19

there was a tiny little pause that...

31:21

amounted to nothing. That conflict is

31:24

still ongoing. Trump and

31:26

Marco Rubio have even said, ah, if

31:28

it doesn't work, we're going to

31:30

give up. We're going to stop negotiating.

31:32

The guy who said he was going to fix

31:35

it in day one now says, oh, it's so

31:37

hard. Maybe I'm going to walk away from the

31:39

process entirely. What are you

31:41

hearing from your sources? How

31:43

are people feeling 100 days

31:45

or more or less into

31:47

Trump 2 .0? Well, Richard,

31:49

I think Steve Witkoff, who

31:51

has become this kind of

31:53

the busiest envoy for this

31:55

particular administration, I mean... He's

31:58

the busiest envoy I've ever

32:00

seen. Yeah, I mean, he's

32:02

really incredibly busy. He's single -handedly

32:04

managing all of these different

32:06

conflicts, whether it's striking a

32:08

deal with Israel and Hamas,

32:10

and I... saw him in

32:12

in Qatar, where he was

32:14

working very closely with the

32:16

the prime minister there to

32:18

try and come up with

32:21

some kind of ceasefire deal.

32:23

And we saw that take

32:25

place just days before the

32:27

inauguration. But that obviously, as

32:29

we know, has now collapsed.

32:31

And then, of course, he's also

32:34

leading the negotiations to try and

32:36

come up with some kind of

32:38

agreement between the Ukrainians and the

32:40

Russians to bring some kind of

32:42

ceasefire there. And he's constantly traveling

32:44

to Moscow and trying to speak

32:46

to Putin and trying to come

32:49

up with some kind of deal

32:51

there. And of course, he

32:53

is at the forefront of this

32:55

particular negotiation with the Iranians that

32:57

we've been talking about. He is

32:59

a real estate mogul. He is

33:01

someone who has known Trump for

33:03

decades. He's very close to the

33:05

family. He has an office in

33:07

the White House, although originally he

33:09

was supposed to be in the

33:12

State Department, but he was getting

33:14

so many calls in the day

33:16

that he was, you know, rushing

33:18

over to see Trump. He's got

33:20

open... Trump's office just as Jared

33:22

Kushner did. And Jared Kushner, Trump's

33:24

son -in -law, was so, you know,

33:27

driving a lot of Trump's foreign policy

33:29

in the first administration. And

33:31

Whitcoff is probably the closest thing to

33:33

that. He's, as I said, close to

33:35

the family. He has access to Donald

33:37

Trump. And... foreign

33:40

policy, you know, wonks and

33:42

leaders around the world, when Whitcoff

33:44

arrives, they know that the

33:46

message is coming directly from Donald

33:48

Trump. So what he says

33:50

matters, and they sit up and

33:52

they want to listen to

33:54

what he has to say. And

33:56

there are pluses and minuses

33:58

to that, to having one person

34:00

basically handling foreign policy. Whether

34:02

it's from Gaza to Iran to

34:05

Ukraine, it all goes through him. And

34:07

there's, you know, there's pluses, there's

34:09

advantages and disadvantages. The advantages, exactly as

34:11

you're saying, people take him seriously

34:13

because they know they're talking to someone

34:15

who has access to Trump, who's

34:18

in an office right next to him

34:20

and who Trump trusts. So they

34:22

take him seriously. It feels like they're

34:24

talking to Trump. The

34:26

negative side is he's basically bypassed

34:28

the State Department. He's basically

34:30

thrown the State Department away and

34:32

it's foreign policy threw on.

34:34

through an envoy. It's foreign policy

34:36

by executive order. Yeah, I

34:38

mean, things that the Secretary of

34:40

State would have done previously. You

34:43

know, we're seeing Steve Wittkopf as

34:45

Trump's envoy zipping around in his

34:47

private jet. He doesn't get a

34:49

penny from the government. These are

34:51

all things that are unheard of.

34:53

But that is what Steve Wittkopf

34:55

is doing. And he has a

34:57

direct line to John Trump. And

34:59

he's determined to get one of

35:01

these deals done. So whether it

35:03

is pushing on the Ukraine front,

35:05

and frankly, we're seeing Putin say

35:08

things like, well, I'll have an

35:10

Easter ceasefire, and then you hear

35:12

from those on the ground that

35:14

the ceasefire has been breached hundreds

35:16

of times. Zelensky himself

35:18

has said that. Or

35:20

whether we saw the collapse of

35:22

the ceasefire in Gaza and

35:24

the devastation that has continued there.

35:27

Even at the time, people describe

35:29

that particular ceasefire as fragile,

35:31

as a deal that would be

35:33

difficult to hold. And

35:35

he has struggled to

35:37

resurrect that deal. So what

35:39

we have seen now

35:42

is this administration trying to

35:44

do things on speed.

35:46

They are basically trying to

35:48

handle multiple tasks at

35:50

once, and it all feels

35:52

slightly incomplete and confusing.

35:54

It's unclear if any of

35:56

these deals are going

35:58

to get off the ground.

36:00

This particular deal with

36:03

the Iranians, I mean, you

36:05

remember famously that, you

36:07

know, the summit that Donald

36:09

Trump had with the North Korean

36:11

leader, Kim Jong -un, where he

36:13

went and he tried to

36:15

deal. Of course, and those North

36:17

Korea watchers were saying this

36:19

is just a photo op for

36:22

Kim Jong -un and it's going

36:24

to get nowhere. And

36:26

actually, I think the difference between that

36:28

and the Iran deal is the

36:30

North Koreans weren't concerned that anyone was

36:32

going to come and smash them. You

36:35

know, they were doing it for

36:37

a photo op that he wanted

36:39

to meet Donald Trump. I think

36:41

the Iranians know that there is

36:43

a lot more at stake here.

36:45

And that's why potentially we will

36:47

see concessions made from both sides

36:50

and a potential deal could be

36:52

signed between the Trump administration and

36:54

the Iranians. And that's exactly what

36:56

I was saying earlier, that neither

36:58

of us were born yesterday. There

37:01

is talk. There is movement. There's

37:03

excitement here. The government says that

37:05

it wants this deal and is

37:07

trying to show that it wants

37:09

this deal, opening up to a

37:11

degree to American journalists, to me,

37:13

and so that we can have

37:16

these kind of conversations, that I

37:18

can talk to people on the

37:20

streets. Again, unfettered

37:22

access, relatively speaking, for

37:24

Iran. I'm there

37:26

more I have more control. There's more

37:28

controls on that I felt in in

37:30

other countries than I'm feeling here I

37:32

was out the other day with our

37:34

camera. We were just walking around just

37:36

stopping people on the street putting our

37:38

tripod down Police walked by us didn't

37:40

even ask for our papers That's that's

37:42

that's shocking it for a place like

37:44

Iran I've been here in the past

37:46

soon as you put your sticks down

37:48

sticks of tripod for people who don't

37:50

know the journalistic terms as soon as

37:52

you put your sticks down The

37:55

police came and sometimes would take

37:57

you back to the police station.

37:59

I filmed in Cairo. Cairo is

38:01

harder to work than I'm finding

38:03

it to work here. When you

38:05

try and film on the streets

38:07

in Cairo, within five minutes, sometimes

38:09

less than that, the authorities are

38:11

all over you and they want

38:13

to know who you are and

38:15

there's questions and it's obstructionist. I

38:17

was talking to people on the

38:19

streets who were openly telling me

38:21

that they've had enough. Not

38:23

just of the government, but

38:26

of the entire Islamic system openly

38:28

saying that including women with

38:30

their headscarves off That's Extraordinary and

38:32

that's a I would say

38:34

for Iran quite a quite a

38:36

bold step. So they're trying

38:38

to show They want to they

38:40

want to do this deal

38:42

Whether they have no choice whether

38:44

it's real. They're doing it

38:47

the people want it, but is

38:49

it gonna fail? like the

38:51

Gaza deal fail, is it going

38:53

to fail like so far

38:55

the Ukraine talks have failed? I

38:57

don't know. The Iranians

38:59

don't know. That's the big

39:01

question. But I can tell you

39:03

this moment, there is that

39:06

window, there is that hope, and

39:08

there is that momentum from

39:10

both the state and the people

39:12

here who want to give

39:14

this a shot. And if it

39:16

does fail and suddenly there's

39:18

military action against Iran, by

39:21

Israel and there was that New York

39:23

Times report a couple of weeks ago

39:25

that said they were going to bomb,

39:27

you know, in May. And

39:29

that Trump said, let's try diplomacy

39:31

first. We'll keep military option on the

39:34

table, but let's not let's not

39:36

do that yet. So if in a

39:38

couple of months that military option

39:40

comes back and there's a conflict, I'll

39:42

look back and I will remember

39:44

the conversation we were having right now

39:47

and remember that window was open.

39:49

It was open and it was really

39:51

open for a little bit and

39:53

there really is a bit of of

39:55

momentum leading in the direction of

39:57

of trying to to engage Maybe it's

40:00

because they have a new president

40:02

Maybe because it's the women who went

40:04

out into the streets and said

40:06

they're not taking this anymore and the

40:08

police lost the the will to

40:10

to enforce a certain of these social

40:13

laws Whatever, maybe it's the economic

40:15

crisis. Whatever the reason is The currency

40:17

Going has gone up since I've

40:19

been here the the toman the Iranian

40:21

currency is gaining value because people

40:23

are encouraged by The the prospect that

40:25

there's gonna be a deal the

40:28

Iranian currency day by day since I've

40:30

been here for the last week

40:32

has gone up And that's quite significant.

40:34

It's a it's a sign of

40:36

people's confidence and I was at the

40:38

I was out last night walking

40:41

around and It was a great scene.

40:43

There were a bunch of men

40:45

and they all had their phones out

40:47

and they were looking at the

40:49

international currency rates and they were trading

40:51

gold and they were trading the

40:54

local currency and they were going back

40:56

and forth and haggling. It was

40:58

fun to watch because it was very

41:00

old fashioned of people kind of

41:02

screaming at each other and I've got

41:04

this and I've got that and

41:07

I've got this manage gold and I've

41:09

got this much currency and they

41:11

were going And the

41:13

market is heating up because

41:15

there's some optimism. Incredible.

41:18

Well, Richard, then I need to

41:20

ask you, what is your prediction

41:22

of things? I mean, you sound,

41:25

as you say, we're not

41:27

naive. We've seen these things

41:29

played out before, but you

41:31

sound cautiously optimistic. And I'm

41:33

curious to know what your

41:35

prediction is going forward and

41:37

how are things likely to

41:39

look? I

41:42

hate to be a pessimist.

41:44

I hate to be a

41:47

pessimist. But I was just

41:49

reading some old quotes from

41:51

the former Israeli prime minister,

41:53

Naftali Bennett. And

41:56

he was saying they've

41:58

never had an

42:00

opportunity like this to

42:02

strike Iran because

42:04

they have the cause,

42:06

they believe, which

42:08

was October 7th. And

42:10

they have the

42:12

means. because Iran's weapons,

42:14

external weapons, Hamas,

42:16

Hezbollah, even the Houthis are

42:18

getting weakened, they're getting attacked.

42:20

They were sort of the last

42:22

of the proxies still standing. So

42:25

Iran has never been

42:27

this vulnerable before. So

42:30

I don't, I think

42:32

there's still a decent

42:34

chance that this goes

42:36

military because there

42:39

just because there's goodwill and just

42:41

because you want something to happen.

42:44

There are plenty of people

42:46

who don't want this

42:48

to happen. There are plenty

42:50

of people who would

42:52

see this moment and see

42:54

this as a great

42:56

opportunity to try and destroy

42:58

Iran's some of Iran's

43:00

nuclear capacity. So I'm going

43:02

to do a low

43:04

prediction. I would say

43:06

it's it's still probably 50 -50

43:08

that you're gonna get a deal or you're

43:10

gonna get some sort of military action. But

43:13

if these talks break

43:15

down, there are plenty

43:18

of people in Washington

43:20

who would really like

43:22

to have a military

43:24

campaign against Iran and

43:26

see that this is

43:28

an opportunity that might

43:31

be too tempting for

43:33

them to skip. Well,

43:35

I guess for me, Richard, as

43:38

we've been discussing, I'm going

43:40

to be watching very closely the

43:42

talks with Iran. There are

43:44

more sort of meetings that are

43:46

taking place, bilaterals that are

43:48

taking place this week. And

43:50

of course, the situation in Ukraine

43:52

and Russia to see how that

43:54

unfolds, Vladimir Putin has now sort

43:56

of said, you know, has hinted

43:58

at the fact that he might want

44:00

to meet with the Ukrainians. The

44:02

last time they met, of course,

44:04

was in 2022. And those

44:06

talks fell apart. The two leaders didn't,

44:08

but they had teams that were meeting.

44:11

And of course, as we

44:13

march towards 100 days of

44:16

the Trump administration, Trump 2 .0,

44:18

I'm curious to know who is

44:21

going to remain in the court

44:23

of Trump and who leaves, whether

44:25

the Pete Hegseth is ousted, because

44:27

of course there's been more

44:29

revelations around Signalgate and that

44:31

he shared contents of that

44:33

with family and friends, and

44:36

that's landed him in hot water.

44:39

And of course, Elon Musk, who

44:41

we know that he's going to

44:43

be leaving this administration very soon.

44:45

So, you know, no surprises really

44:47

in terms of the shifts and

44:49

changes. It's taken almost three months

44:51

now. We saw the chaos in

44:53

the first Trump administration where people were

44:55

being hired and fired almost every other

44:57

week. So what

44:59

made this administration... different

45:02

from the first was the

45:04

fact that they seemed

45:06

from the outset more organized,

45:08

more focused, less kind

45:10

of leaks that we were

45:12

seeing, you know, fewer

45:14

people who were working against

45:16

the plans of the

45:18

president. And yet we are

45:20

starting to see cracks because of

45:22

the level of chaos and confusion and

45:24

the fact that things remain incomplete.

45:27

So that's what I will be focusing

45:29

on in the next week or

45:31

so. And Yalta, before we go, there's

45:33

one thing. Because if you

45:35

notice on this prediction, I was

45:37

like, well, let me, 55%, it

45:39

breaks down, 45%, it works. And

45:41

that if it breaks down, it

45:43

breaks down badly, right? Which

45:45

is, that's not a great prediction. That's still

45:47

a, it can go either way. It's kind

45:50

of a, I don't to

45:52

say cowardly, but it's not

45:54

a very decisive prediction because

45:56

it's really still fluid. And

45:58

one of the reasons that

46:00

we haven't talked about that

46:02

is very interesting is the

46:04

role of Saudi Arabia. The

46:07

Saudi Arabian Defense Minister was just

46:09

here, was just in Iran, and

46:11

is backing this deal. And

46:14

that's very different. The

46:16

Saudis and generally all the Gulf

46:18

countries didn't want this deal

46:20

to happen. Under Obama they didn't

46:22

like the deal. They didn't

46:25

want Iran breaking out of its

46:27

box. They wanted to destroy

46:29

This country and keep it as

46:31

weak as possible because of

46:33

this ancient Persian Arab rivalry because

46:35

of oil competition, you know

46:38

Who controls the the the Gulf?

46:40

Is it the Arabian Gulf

46:42

or is it the Persian Gulf?

46:44

This there's an old old

46:46

animosity here this time the Saudis

46:48

seem to be supporting this

46:51

process And there's still talk

46:53

rumors in the background, but it

46:55

was rumors circulating in Tehran when

46:57

the defense minister, who is the

46:59

brother of Mohammed bin Salman, was

47:02

here. The talk was, maybe

47:05

he's here because he's

47:07

trying to organize a

47:09

final peace summit in

47:11

Saudi Arabia where President

47:13

Trump goes and signs

47:15

this deal. So

47:17

the fact that the Saudis were here

47:20

and the fact that the Saudis

47:22

are into it and that the Saudis

47:24

are playing such a central role

47:26

in a lot of these negotiations, that's

47:29

an encouraging

47:31

sign. And so I

47:33

would say something to watch

47:35

would be watch Saudis position

47:37

vis -a -vis Iran and what

47:39

Saudi Arabia has to say

47:41

about the negotiations because I

47:43

think it's different and significant.

47:45

Yeah, absolutely. As you say,

47:47

different and significant. Richard,

47:49

really good to speak to you

47:52

again this week and this

47:54

time from Tehran. And I'm looking

47:56

forward to seeing you very

47:58

soon. And thank you to our

48:00

listeners for listening. Thank you

48:02

all of our listeners. It's great

48:05

to connect with you, great

48:07

to talk to people every week.

48:09

Sorry we missed Easter. We'll

48:11

be back and keep

48:14

it going. Please send

48:16

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48:18

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