0:00

I think it's pretty easy this

0:02

market could rally to 56, 5700,

0:04

and that would actually provide you

0:06

a pretty decent exit point to

0:08

reduce equity. Now, let me be

0:10

clear. I said reduce equity, not

0:12

sell everything in the markets. There's

0:14

some stuff in the market that

0:16

is getting ridiculously cheap. Welcome

0:24

to thoughtful money. I'm thoughtful money

0:26

founder and your host Adam Taggart.

0:29

Welcome you back here at the

0:31

end of another week and what

0:34

a week I am joined as

0:36

usual by my good friend portfolio

0:38

manager the liberated Lance Roberts,

0:41

Lance, how you doing? Billing

0:43

liberated, it's awesome. I don't know

0:45

what that means actually. Well, of

0:47

course, that was a reference

0:49

folks to liberation day. That

0:51

was President Trump's. announcement of

0:54

what was billed as reciprocal

0:56

tariffs, really what what what

0:58

how it manifested was actually

1:00

quite different than many people

1:02

expected certainly certainly different than

1:04

what Wall Street expected. We

1:06

had a bloodbath in the

1:08

markets yesterday. looking like it's

1:10

going to be surpassed today. Lance

1:12

and I were recording this on

1:15

Friday morning. Lance, when I just

1:17

peek, the S&P was down, something

1:19

like four and a half or

1:21

something like that, a lot of

1:23

deep red on the screen. So

1:25

I, Lance, I guess the question

1:27

everybody has for you is, is what's

1:30

going on? Is this the big one

1:32

or will this two pass? Well,

1:34

this two shall pass, obviously, you

1:36

know, there's a difference between a...

1:39

event-driven correction, which is what

1:41

this is. We have an event

1:43

that's driving a correction versus an

1:45

economic recession or a financial crisis

1:48

or something. We don't have a

1:50

financial crisis going on, but what

1:52

we do have is this whole event

1:55

driven around tariffs. And again, we

1:57

can get into kind of the

1:59

details. you know, today of all these

2:01

tariffs, but they were worse than expected.

2:04

They were not really tied to

2:06

any type of reciprocal tariff. It

2:08

was poorly done and poorly

2:10

executed, and now it's left

2:12

the markets in a real state

2:15

of kind of unknown address, and

2:17

now China, as opposed to what

2:19

was expected, again, everything is

2:21

working against expectations. Expectations were

2:23

that tariffs were going to

2:26

be somewhere between 10 and

2:28

20 percent. not 34% on China

2:30

as an example. They also

2:33

didn't expect that China

2:35

would retaliate and come back

2:37

with a 34% reciprocal tariff, and

2:39

which is what we put on

2:42

them, as well as an export

2:44

ban on certain materials. Now,

2:46

you know, we can talk

2:48

about the details of that.

2:50

This is China negotiating,

2:52

putting themselves in a

2:55

position to negotiate. But

2:57

this is all far beyond what

2:59

the market was set up for.

3:01

So the markets are responding

3:03

accordingly because again, this is

3:05

all going to have major

3:07

major impacts to earnings revisions

3:09

over the next 12 18

3:11

months. All right. So we'll go through

3:14

the technicals. I think the

3:16

big question that everybody has

3:18

on their minds, which obviously

3:20

Lance, you can't answer, but

3:22

you can speculate, which is.

3:24

you know, when does the,

3:26

when's this going to end?

3:28

But a couple things, one,

3:30

folks, so at this point,

3:32

at least as of recording,

3:34

the S&P is now down

3:36

about 15% from its high

3:38

early this year, it's all

3:40

time high. NASDAQ's down 20%

3:43

so NASDAQ's officially in correction

3:46

now. The 10 year is under 4%.

3:48

So, all right, Lance, we'll look,

3:50

I guess before we pull up

3:52

the, The T.A. there, you know,

3:55

you and I did a

3:57

real-time event yesterday.

3:59

You're not thrilled, I

4:01

think, about sort of the logic,

4:04

but behind these. Why don't

4:06

you explain, if you can,

4:08

just real quickly, why you

4:10

think the calculus that was

4:12

used, the calculations

4:14

that were used for the

4:17

tariffs that we put on

4:19

these countries, was flawed. Why

4:21

we shouldn't be using a

4:24

trade deficit as a proxy

4:26

for reciprocal tariffs? Well, the

4:28

trade deficit doesn't have anything to

4:30

do with tariffs. You know, just,

4:32

you know, one of the things that's

4:35

Trump administration is taking some slings

4:37

and arrows for is that we

4:39

tariff the island of McDonald, which

4:42

the only people that live there

4:44

are penguins. So what tariff did

4:47

penguins put on us? And look,

4:49

it's, you know, that's an outsized

4:51

example, right? But it's, it's

4:53

the point that somebody didn't

4:55

do their job. when they went

4:57

to Trump and said, hey, here's

4:59

our tariff, you want to do

5:01

tariffs, here's our plan to do

5:03

it, we're going to do this,

5:06

somebody should have picked up on

5:08

the fact that the Alabama doesn't

5:10

have any people on it to tariff,

5:12

right? So we just imposed a

5:14

10% tariff on a island that can't

5:17

pay it, right? So it's just ridiculous.

5:19

So, but tariffs are a tax

5:21

or a value added tax.

5:23

put on a specific

5:25

good or service that's

5:27

imported or exported from a

5:30

country. So for instance,

5:32

if we, you know, we talked

5:34

about Japan. Japan has a 700%

5:36

tariff on US rice because they

5:38

want to protect their rice

5:40

farmers in Japan. Look,

5:42

Japanese rice is far better than

5:44

American rice any day of the

5:47

week, but you know, that this

5:49

is Japan's point. So if you wanted

5:51

to do a reciprocal tariff, what

5:53

it should have been was a

5:55

700% tariff on Japanese rights coming

5:58

into the US, or if we terror. of

6:00

butter or dairy products or anything like

6:02

that. This should have been an item,

6:04

should have taken each country that you

6:06

wanted to tariff, item by item, look at

6:08

what's actually being tariffed and then

6:10

apply a reciprocal tariff. That's what

6:12

Wall Street was expecting. The trade

6:15

deficit doesn't have anything to do with

6:17

tariffs. That's just the difference between what

6:19

we import to a country and what

6:21

we export from them. And there's

6:23

some countries that we should run a

6:26

trade deficit with. There's simply that they

6:28

don't really manufacture. anything that's, you

6:30

know, or sorry, we don't manufacture

6:32

things that they particularly need. These

6:34

are in four countries in particular.

6:37

Or they're just smaller countries. Yeah, these

6:39

are smaller countries. So they don't, they

6:41

don't import a lot of things from

6:43

us, but we export a lot of

6:45

maybe raw materials or based products from

6:48

them, etc. So there's this deficit on

6:50

trade. That's not a tariff. That's just

6:52

a differential between the imports and

6:55

exports from those countries. But

6:57

when this... plan, whether it was Howard

6:59

Lutnik or whoever that put this

7:01

ultimately together said, oh, here's the

7:03

magic formula for this. They just used

7:06

the trade deficit and they cut the

7:08

deficit by half and said, oh, that's

7:10

the tariff. But that was a very

7:12

flawed approach to this, and this is

7:15

why the market's reacting so negatively, because

7:17

these tariffs are much more onerous than

7:19

what they should have been. And

7:22

more importantly, they're much more

7:24

onerous on smaller countries, poorer

7:26

countries. then they need to be. And so this

7:28

is why the market's really having a

7:30

lot of difficulty with this. This is

7:32

obviously going to increase the risk

7:35

of recession, although we don't have the

7:37

economic data today's report on our website

7:39

and on our sub stack channel this

7:42

morning. It's talking about the S&P

7:44

as a leading indicator for recessions.

7:46

The economic data is not

7:48

recession. We just saw the employment

7:51

report out this morning. Doesn't mean

7:53

it won't become recessionary in the

7:55

months ahead. But. Right now, the

7:57

important thing is, is this is an

7:59

event. driven a very specific

8:01

event, these tariffs, that's driving

8:03

the cell off. And the problem with

8:06

extrapolating this event into a bigger cycle

8:08

is that tomorrow, I'm not saying this

8:10

is gonna happen at all, but literally

8:12

tomorrow could come out, Trump could come

8:14

out tomorrow morning and say, hey, I

8:16

had a great phone call with President

8:19

Xi, we decided to take tariffs off

8:21

both countries, we're just gonna, we're gonna

8:23

go back to status quo for now,

8:25

right, or some negotiation. this market's going

8:27

to be up 5% in a day

8:29

on that news. So that's the risk

8:31

here with this type of of selloff

8:34

is that it's very subject to a

8:36

change in the news flow versus this

8:38

being a more fundamentally driven selloff

8:40

in the markets. If that makes

8:43

sense. No, it makes total sense.

8:45

I was going to deliver sort

8:47

of a similar warning here, which

8:49

is that, you know, unlike a

8:51

unlike an event and I'll use a

8:54

sad one, but like 9-11, right? The plane's

8:56

not gonna ever not fly back out of

8:58

the building, right? It's an event that

9:00

can't be reversed where this could be

9:02

reversible, right? And actually, I believe that

9:05

is the plan, right? Classic Trump, you

9:07

know, pull out a really big stick

9:09

and then start offering carrots and hope

9:12

everybody takes your carrots instead of you

9:14

having to use the stick, right? So,

9:16

you know, this is we talked a

9:18

little bit about yesterday, people were saying,

9:21

hey, you know, should I short this

9:23

market? You warned about the danger of

9:25

using leverage ETFs. But if you're going

9:28

to take a short position here, you

9:30

just got to be aware that to

9:32

your point, this thing could change on

9:34

a dime and you could see the

9:36

market up a tremendous amount in a

9:38

very short period of time, making sure

9:40

it's very dangerous, right? Because

9:42

you've mentioned it as a, as an

9:44

event, So, you know, it's it's not

9:46

it's not necessarily a fatal, you know,

9:49

thing. It's it's not something that, you know,

9:51

we may not be able to get out

9:53

of for a long time, say like

9:55

we fall into a real deep economic

9:58

slowdown. And I know you're concerned. Ryan

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Anyway, give it a

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try at mintmobile.com, Before

22:03

though, I asked you a version

22:05

of this question in our live

22:07

stream yesterday, Lance, but so a

22:09

lot of people have been worried about

22:11

tariff saying that they're going to

22:13

be inflationary. You in the past

22:15

have countered that, but if they

22:17

get past sort of as is

22:20

currently constructed. as we talked yesterday,

22:22

I think you think, hey, those

22:24

actually really could be, they're definitely

22:26

going to raise prices. So let

22:28

me ask you this, if things

22:30

were to stay the way that

22:32

they were, what do you think

22:34

would summarize best the error would

22:36

be entering into? Would it be

22:38

inflationary? Would it be stagflationary? And

22:41

I know stagflation is a very

22:43

specific definition for you, but meaning

22:45

like potentially really high prices

22:47

and going into recession with

22:49

unemployment going up. Or is

22:52

it really going to be

22:54

more disinflation and deflation carry

22:56

the day because of a recession?

22:58

Well, so, you know, there's a

23:00

lot of a lot of variables

23:02

that have to kind of work

23:05

themselves out. So, well, let's just

23:07

kind of walk through each

23:09

one. So if tariff, so

23:11

assuming tariff say exactly the way

23:13

they are right now, right, which are

23:15

onerous to a large degree, they're

23:17

not going to be

23:20

inflationary. And the reason they

23:22

will be deflationary is because

23:24

nobody can deal with prices

23:26

where they are corporations can't

23:28

deal with them because I

23:30

I that impact of that

23:32

higher cost coming in. If I

23:35

can't pass that on to the consumer,

23:37

I can only make a couple of

23:40

decisions either a I don't buy

23:42

whatever that product is and or

23:44

or I source it somewhere else

23:46

at a cheaper price or. I make

23:48

a lot less of whatever item that

23:50

is that's coming in and because I

23:52

can't sell it anyway. So there's an

23:54

there's an inventory imbalance and right now

23:57

we saw a lot of companies if

23:59

you take a look at inventories, been

24:01

a huge surge in inventories trying to

24:03

get ahead of these tariffs. And

24:05

now companies are going to be forced

24:07

with facing two things, one, which is

24:09

a slowing consumer and the inability to

24:11

pass off those tariffs. And now I've

24:13

got all this inventory, I've got

24:15

a discount to sell. So that in

24:18

that environment, and then the bigger factor

24:20

of that is business investment. So

24:22

when you take a look at GDP, about

24:24

15% of GDP is business investment. And so

24:26

if I'm being impacted by all these higher

24:29

costs, I can't sell my product. I'm having

24:31

to talk about laying off workers here

24:33

because of a slowing economic environment.

24:36

I'm certainly not going to be doing

24:38

cap X spending. I'm not going to

24:40

be spending money and building out a

24:42

new property plan or you know, buying

24:45

new equipment, producing more inventory, whatever it

24:47

is, because there's no demand for it.

24:49

So that's going to impact GDP.

24:51

consumption slowing down that

24:53

impacts GDP because of personal

24:55

consumption all that's deflationary so

24:58

that all drags prices lower

25:00

because again the other day what's inflation

25:02

is supply and demand I may have

25:04

higher input costs but if I can't

25:06

pass it on there's no there's no

25:09

inflation by standpoint so we

25:11

may see inflation on the producer side

25:13

but not on the consumer side okay

25:15

all right and just for the folks who

25:17

watching this again This could all get

25:20

undone tomorrow with a couple of phone

25:22

calls, but if it doesn't you really

25:24

feel like It sounds like you think

25:26

odds are good. This will Really feel like

25:28

a recession. You know the further we

25:30

go into this year In a way

25:32

that it hasn't felt like a recession

25:34

for the American consumer in a long

25:36

time like we can argue that oh

25:39

part of the population's been in recession

25:41

over the past bunch of years and

25:43

I'm sympathetic to that argument but we've

25:45

had you know the top echelon

25:47

really pulling things up Given the type

25:49

of future you think we could go into if

25:51

these tariffs stay in places is it could really

25:54

feel like a recession the way that oh wait

25:56

felt like a recession the way that the early

25:58

90s felt like a recession. So, a

26:00

little different. The answer to your

26:02

question is yes. It's not going

26:04

to feel like a recession. It's

26:07

going to be a recession. Okay.

26:09

So, I mean, feel like a

26:11

recession like, okay, I'm afraid of

26:13

losing my job. I lost my

26:15

job. Like, I mean, all that

26:17

type of really hard stuff. Yeah,

26:19

no. And so, so, so yeah,

26:21

it's going to, it's going to

26:24

be a recession. If things say

26:26

where they are, we're going to

26:28

be in a recession. We're going

26:30

to be in a recession, right.

26:32

Um, because we don't have any

26:34

financial stimulus flying around anymore, right?

26:36

You know, we're not sending checks

26:39

to households yet. The feds not

26:41

doing QT, sorry, not doing QE

26:43

now, they did reduce QT. We

26:45

don't have, you know, QE coming

26:47

into the markets, we don't have,

26:49

you know, some big spending package

26:51

on the horizon. So there's nothing

26:53

to offset all of these tariffs.

26:56

So again, just taking things in

26:58

isolation, looking at today, if everything

27:00

remains the way it is today

27:02

right now, we will be in

27:04

a recession in six months, maybe

27:06

not. Because while the upper echelon

27:08

has been supporting 50% of the

27:10

growth of the spending in the

27:13

economy, they're not going to want

27:15

to pay. dramatically higher prices and

27:17

when and when capital markets are

27:19

appealing apart like they are now

27:21

if that continues they're gonna start

27:23

contracting spending just like everybody else

27:25

is just from hey you know

27:27

what I need to maybe not

27:30

buy that plane this month I

27:32

was thinking about because well but

27:34

that's why the negative wealth effect

27:36

matters here sadly is because it's

27:38

the that those that affluent echelon

27:40

that's pretty impervious as long as

27:42

stocks are doing well. Now when

27:44

stocks are getting clobbered like they

27:47

are, they look at their statements

27:49

and say, whoa, wait a second,

27:51

I got a really downshift. Yeah,

27:53

that's right. And so, so yes,

27:55

it will be a recession. It

27:57

won't feel like a recession. It

27:59

will be a recession. It'll be

28:02

different though, than the financial crisis.

28:04

Again, when you have a credit

28:06

related. crisis, that's a different environment

28:08

than, and even to a large

28:10

degree, the.com crash was credit related,

28:12

right? We had failures of Enron

28:14

and Worldcom and Global Crossing and

28:16

Lucent and all these others. So,

28:19

you know, those are different environments.

28:21

And so this recessionary environment like

28:23

this may be more like an

28:25

87 type issue where it's fairly

28:27

short lived. You have a, you

28:29

know, a negative GDP growth of

28:31

one, one and a half percent

28:33

maybe. short-lived for a couple of

28:36

months, but somewhere in that phase,

28:38

the Fed's gonna step in slash

28:40

rates to zero. They're gonna start

28:42

doing QE. We're gonna start getting,

28:44

you know, you know, whatever tariff

28:46

policy there was, there's gonna be

28:48

a retraction. Everybody's gonna start running

28:50

in reverse to try to, you

28:53

know, to try to get out

28:55

of the recession, right? So it

28:57

will be a recession. It'll be

28:59

fairly short-lived unless... unless this morphs

29:01

into a credit related event of

29:03

some sort. And there's certainly enough

29:05

debt out there in terms of

29:07

corporate credit, etc. that that's certainly

29:10

not a risk that's not entirely

29:12

off table. It's a fairly low

29:14

probability event right now, but it's

29:16

not entirely dismissive. Okay, and it

29:18

might be a little bit of

29:20

a higher probability, and I don't

29:22

know, but I just want to

29:25

note, and we'll talk about this

29:27

more, hopefully a little bit later

29:29

in this discussion, I'm just coming

29:31

off an interview with Anna Wong,

29:33

chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, who

29:35

before yesterday in today's big market

29:37

drops. She had said, hey, look,

29:39

I actually think that we're probably

29:42

heading into recession and she said

29:44

it wouldn't surprise me if the

29:46

S&P were down, you know, 30%

29:48

from here and it's already made

29:50

a lot of progress in the

29:52

past 48 hours to that go.

29:54

But she said, look, and one

29:56

of the big reasons why she's

29:59

pessimistic about where the economies headed

30:01

is because of the credit, her

30:03

concern. about the credit worthiness of

30:05

the American consumer and she believes

30:07

it's actually lower than most lenders

30:09

appreciate right now and she thinks

30:11

as that gets discovered it's going

30:13

to it's going to you know

30:16

manifest in some some credit issues.

30:18

Now she's saying I'm not predicting

30:20

that this is going to be

30:22

the next subprime that's going to

30:24

lock up the credit markets the

30:26

way that that happened in 2008

30:28

to your point lance. It's not

30:30

a credit crisis but it could

30:33

be a... a rolling, you know,

30:35

a grinding credit event, events, maybe

30:37

two to find out of a

30:39

word, but a grinding down of

30:41

the credit markets that could create

30:43

a more prolonged recession and be

30:45

credit related, right? Again, not not

30:48

not an oh wait, the whole

30:50

system dies, but you know, well,

30:52

yeah, and what you need though,

30:54

and I'm not disagree with her

30:56

because again, if you get into

30:58

a, a recessionary event of magnitude.

31:00

You're going to impact credit, right?

31:02

I mean, so look, let's just

31:05

step everything back for a second.

31:07

What is recession, right? Recession, slower

31:09

economic growth, job losses, people can't

31:11

pay their bills. You know, what

31:13

we don't have today, we don't

31:15

have an environment like subprime where

31:17

we were giving out a lot

31:19

of money loans to very uncredit

31:22

worthy borrowers. We do have some

31:24

of that risk in the collateral

31:26

loan market. We have some of

31:28

that risk in the high-yield market,

31:30

obviously we've got that risk in

31:32

the, you know, the Russell 2000

31:34

corporate debt market. Yeah. But those

31:36

are fairly small pockets. You know,

31:39

one of the pockets I'm watching

31:41

really closely is this buy now

31:43

pay later credit. Yeah. But even

31:45

that, it's, you know, it's, if

31:47

you look at the buy now

31:49

pay later universe as a, as

31:51

a, percentage of the global bond

31:53

market. It's it's it's tiny. It's

31:56

tiny. So even if it completely

31:58

blows up, it's to take it's

32:00

certainly going to impact the lenders

32:02

that are backing, you know, a

32:04

firm and, and what's the other

32:06

one, Clark, which is about to go

32:08

public. It's certainly going to

32:11

impact those, but it's not going to

32:13

be one where all of a sudden,

32:15

Clarka blows up and JP Morgan's going

32:17

out of business, that's not going

32:19

to happen. Right, right. No, and I

32:22

don't think Anna would would would would

32:24

say that as well. Her issue is that

32:26

there's, we had all of these. things

32:28

that were propping up the bottom of

32:30

the consumer, the bottom echelon of

32:32

consumers, it was the checks to the

32:35

households, it was the moratorium having to

32:37

pay their mortgages or their rent, and

32:39

it was the moratorium on student loans.

32:41

And now all of those are gone,

32:44

and student loans are now the last

32:46

one to really go back into repayment.

32:48

And I think there's like 30 or

32:50

40 million borrowers, but it's about 10

32:53

million of them are kind of in

32:55

the danger zone from what our

32:57

data shows. And which is realizing is

32:59

that, yeah, not only are they going

33:02

to start being delinquent on their student

33:04

loan debts soon, but they're going to

33:06

be delinquent on other forms of debt

33:09

as well, right? And she also talks

33:11

about how credit scores, it's

33:13

almost kind of like grade inflation

33:15

in the academic system. She's like,

33:18

credit scores are higher than they

33:20

were. in 2008, or pre-2008. And so

33:22

people say, well, the consumer is in

33:24

better shape. She's like, actually, if you

33:27

adjust it for sort of the great

33:29

inflation and credit scores, it's really

33:31

about the same. And so it's interesting, she

33:33

says, it creates this interesting issue where there's

33:36

now information asymmetry with a lender actually. thinks

33:38

the buyer is more credit worthy than they

33:40

really are and the buyer knows their own

33:43

or the borrower knows their own true credit

33:45

worthiness and so they might be like hey

33:47

look I'm struggling so I'm going to go

33:49

out and make as many loans as I

33:52

can get right where the lenders still think

33:54

I'm pretty good credit even though I know

33:56

I'm not right so she says as the

33:58

lenders start to wait up to that

34:00

is more and more people become delinquent,

34:03

you know, being pushed in by their

34:05

student loans, then the lenders are going

34:07

to start, you know, tightening their lending

34:09

standards, and then you could potentially start

34:12

getting this contagion that starts spilling into

34:14

all forms of debt. And again, she's

34:16

not predicting apocalypse, but she's saying that

34:18

could really be enough to really start

34:20

crimping consumer spending. And this was all

34:23

this was all pre liberation day, too.

34:25

I should just be a little aware

34:27

about. And that's very, and again, going

34:29

back to, to, you know, for instance,

34:32

so when we started this out, I

34:34

told you Jerome Powell was speaking, you

34:36

know, while we were doing this, and,

34:38

you know, he's talking about that he

34:41

sees Trump's tariffs being inflationary and that

34:43

he's going to be looking at, you

34:45

know, policy according to kind of what's

34:47

going on. So they're going to pause

34:49

and wait and see here. kind of

34:52

how this all works out before making

34:54

their next decision on rate cuts. And

34:56

as usual, the Fed's going to be

34:58

behind the curve on this. But, you

35:01

know, this, what's where we're trying, where

35:03

Powell's about to get himself into trouble

35:05

is, is that the impact of if

35:07

this drags on much longer, the impact

35:09

to the consumer, this is very negative

35:12

psychologically. Again, what drives spending you just

35:14

said is psychology, right? It's just. you

35:16

know I'm aware of my finances so

35:18

I may be able to go well

35:21

I'm about to go bankrupt so I'm

35:23

gonna go spend a bunch of money

35:25

right now but that's a fair yeah

35:27

it's a very short-lived impact and what

35:30

the Fed's gonna get trapped into is

35:32

all of a sudden we're gonna see

35:34

this data start to pop up it's

35:36

very recessionary the consumers contracting sharply so

35:38

demand is declining within the economy which

35:41

is going to force liquidation of inventories

35:43

at discounted prices which is disinflationary doesn't

35:45

want to push shields down and the

35:47

Fed's going to have to cut rates

35:50

into that which is the worst possible

35:52

scenario for the Fed because now they're

35:54

running behind the curve trying to bail

35:56

out the economy. And their policy acts

35:58

with a lag, right? So, you know,

36:01

if if they're not doing a big

36:03

QE program or whatever, you know, it's

36:05

gonna be months, quarters before we even

36:07

see any benefit from this. And just

36:10

to show folks how volatile markets are

36:12

right now, when Lance and I started

36:14

talking, markets were down like 4.8, about

36:16

20 minutes ago, they'd gotten back down

36:18

to about three flat, and then Powell

36:21

started talking, and now it's, S&P is

36:23

down about 4.2 right now. So it's

36:25

just. whipsawing all over the place. Okay,

36:27

all right, well look, let me get

36:30

into kind of the big theme of

36:32

the day, I think, and I'd love

36:34

to get your thoughts on this lance.

36:36

And folks, let me preface this by

36:39

saying, I am not taking a partisan

36:41

position here. I'm not, I'm deliberately going

36:43

to try not to say with as

36:45

good or bad or whatever. I'm just

36:47

trying to explain it as best I

36:50

understand it. I spent a lot of

36:52

time these days listening to president Trump

36:54

and the members of the Trump administration

36:56

when they talk about their economic policies.

36:59

One of the things I will phrase

37:01

this administration for is they are in

37:03

front of the camera all the time.

37:05

So to the extent they're telling us

37:07

what they truly think, we know, we

37:10

know how they think, whether we like

37:12

what they think or not, different stories.

37:14

But I guess the big point I

37:16

want to make here, Lance, is I

37:19

think I think Trump and the Trump

37:21

administration, I think they are on a

37:23

war footing here. I think that they

37:25

literally see what they're doing as like

37:27

their version of World War II, that

37:30

they have a big goal, a big

37:32

objective, they're finding it on multiple fronts,

37:34

and this is not something that they're

37:36

just trying out to see how it

37:39

goes, oh, and if, you know, sentiments

37:41

bad or feedback's bad, we'll change and

37:43

react. I think they are saying, look,

37:45

you know, we are trying to accomplish

37:48

a big mission here and we're in

37:50

it for the long haul, right? And

37:52

so I think a lot of people

37:54

think Trump's kind of making this. up

37:56

as he goes along and this guy

37:59

wakes up in the morning and changes

38:01

his mind nine times a day and

38:03

he's just a spinning whirling dervish that's

38:05

just kind of doing things randomly. I

38:08

don't think that's the case. Again, I'm

38:10

not going to say whether I agree

38:12

or disagree with what he's trying to

38:14

do, but I think that he came

38:16

in with a very clear agenda. He

38:19

picked specific leaders to execute that agenda

38:21

for him. I think they've got their

38:23

marching orders and I think they are...

38:25

fully committed to it. And so the

38:28

reason why I think this is so

38:30

important understand is if you're, you know,

38:32

expecting this to ease or to abate

38:34

or to change or for Trump to

38:37

get scared and then, you know, retract,

38:39

I think the odds of that might

38:41

be a lot lower than most folks

38:43

are expecting. And let me just go

38:45

through a couple of things of what

38:48

I think the main objectives are and

38:50

then also to sum this up. So

38:52

they are out, especially with Liberation Day,

38:54

right? It's all about rebalancing global trade,

38:57

right? And what does that mean? Well,

38:59

they feel the US has been getting

39:01

a raw deal, right, trade-wise. Again, we

39:03

can argue whether that's right or wrong.

39:05

It's addressing tariffs, but more importantly, his

39:08

team is saying it's not the tariffs

39:10

themselves. It's what they call the non-tariff

39:12

trade barriers. So these are things like.

39:14

what the US perceives to be unfair

39:17

regulations that are keeping US products out

39:19

of these markets, or whether it's subsidies

39:21

of domestic players versus what the US

39:23

could do inside that country. So this

39:25

might be like. the country has a

39:28

VAT tax and is taking the proceeds

39:30

from that VAT tax and subsidizing their

39:32

auto industry with it or using it

39:34

to subsidize energy and provide cheap energy

39:37

so that, say, the country can make

39:39

steel, you know, at prices that the

39:41

US can, right? So they're basically just

39:43

trying to say, hey, look, we feel

39:46

we're getting, you know, the playing fields,

39:48

not even, we've been operating this way.

39:50

for decades and decades. In fact, we

39:52

don't even blame the countries that are

39:54

quote unquote screwing us. They're just getting

39:57

away with what they can get away

39:59

with, you know, Trump says, I blame

40:01

my predecessors, you know, of multiple different

40:03

administrations, and I'm here to right-size things.

40:06

They also think that, look, you know,

40:08

the US is the biggest market in

40:10

the world, biggest consumer market in the

40:12

world, and kind of like Costco, you

40:14

know. there should be like a membership

40:17

fee. If you want to play in

40:19

our market, there's at least some minimum

40:21

you should pay and then, you know,

40:23

we want to demand that you guys,

40:26

if you, you know, above and beyond

40:28

that, you know, the field be as

40:30

level as possible. So they're trying to

40:32

right-size that, rightly or wrongly, but that's

40:34

what they're trying to do. In addition

40:37

to that, they're trying to drive investment

40:39

in the US, really to fund a

40:41

new manufacturing error here. So these are

40:43

the deals you're hearing Trump already begin

40:46

to announce. trillion and a half from

40:48

the United Arab Emirates, the 500 million

40:50

from Apple, the hundreds, 500 billion from

40:52

Apple, the hundreds of billions from invidia,

40:55

the 100 billion from TSMC, right? And

40:57

this is trying to get foreign companies

40:59

to say, hey, look, you come play

41:01

with us, we'll actually give you favored

41:03

terms, right? The best way not to

41:06

get terrified by us is to build

41:08

your products in the US to sell

41:10

to our... to our citizens, right, and

41:12

you employ our workers to do it,

41:15

right? And, you know, what do you

41:17

think that's good or bad? That's definitely

41:19

a big part of his agenda here.

41:21

So in addition to that, there are

41:23

laser focused on spurring economic growth here

41:26

in the US, and that's through lowering

41:28

taxes, that's through deregulation, like some of

41:30

the deals I just talked about on

41:32

the other side of the coin, they're

41:35

trying to cut costs. and to begin

41:37

to get their hands around the debt.

41:39

This is through Doge, this is through

41:41

ending what they consider to be global

41:44

subsidies to the rest of the world,

41:46

like, you know, the support we've been

41:48

giving Ukraine for their war. checks

41:50

that were being

41:52

written by USAID, paying

41:55

for Europe's defenses,

41:57

and now saying, look,

41:59

you know, EU

42:01

countries, you get to

42:04

pay for your

42:06

own NATO contributions going

42:08

forward. Working

42:10

through Congress to try to get

42:12

the deficit under control through continuing

42:14

resolutions, you know, stopping illegal immigration

42:16

and having people coming in here

42:18

that then get on the social

42:20

support programs. The other

42:22

thing that's really big for them is national security.

42:24

So that's you know, stopping fentanyl from coming

42:27

in the country is we've heard a lot. They

42:30

want the US to start making critical

42:32

ingredients that it does not make today.

42:34

You've heard a lot of talk over

42:36

the recent days about how like, we

42:38

don't make many of the pharmaceutical products.

42:40

Obviously we haven't made many of our

42:42

chips for AI. And that's now a

42:44

big priority. So a lot of this

42:46

is sort of reshoring what they consider

42:48

to be essential commerce for the country.

42:51

They understand that there's a debt crisis

42:53

here. So a big part of everything

42:55

they're doing, you know, is to try

42:57

to get the debt under control like

42:59

I said earlier. And of course,

43:01

for security, there's also, you know, getting

43:03

getting criminals out and that's a big

43:05

thing that they're doing right now with

43:07

the deportations and beefing up law enforcement. So

43:10

kind of at the end of the

43:12

day, they're saying, look, you know, we've

43:14

been kind of supporting the rest of

43:16

the world, it's now time for us

43:18

to put American citizens first. And so

43:20

this is kind of the key takeaway

43:22

here where the way I think Trump

43:24

looks at this is this is an

43:26

Atlas shrugged moment, where he's basically saying,

43:28

we've been unfairly supporting the rest of

43:30

the world. And we're now realizing like,

43:33

why, you know, sure,

43:35

it's important to us to have good relationships and

43:37

you preserve democracy and other parts of the world

43:39

and all that stuff. But at the end of

43:41

the day, we get to put our people first.

43:43

And I think this is Trump shrugging. This is

43:45

this is Atlas shrugging and saying, look, world rest

43:47

of the world, you're going to have to do

43:49

a lot of your you're

43:52

going to have to take this weight going forward or

43:54

much more of this weight than you were.

43:56

We're really going to focus on the

43:58

American prospects right now. And what's

44:01

interesting about that is it's,

44:03

you know, it's like calling everybody

44:05

at the poker table, right? You

44:07

know, where everybody has to put

44:09

their cards down. And it's like,

44:11

you're either going to have a

44:13

better hand than me, you're not

44:15

here. And I think at this

44:18

point, Trump feels like he's just

44:20

got the best hand. And for

44:22

most countries, Lance, I'd love to

44:24

hear your thoughts on this. Like, what

44:26

is the option? Right. I mean you can

44:28

you can you can try to fight back

44:30

you can try to create a coalition to

44:33

push back on America here, but is there

44:35

anybody here right now that can really get

44:37

along without access to the American

44:39

market? Is there anybody that has

44:41

a stronger hand right now than we do?

44:43

If you're going to play a game

44:46

about last versus America, can you

44:48

win? I don't think, but I don't think we

44:50

have, you know, in that setup that you just

44:52

put between other countries and us.

44:54

We're very heavily dependent on international

44:57

trade. I mean, 40% of corporate

44:59

revenues come from internet from exports,

45:01

right? So, you know, we can't

45:03

manufacture televisions, we can't manufacture blue

45:06

jeans, we can't manufacture blue jeans,

45:08

we can't manufacture a lot of

45:10

these things that we need, we import

45:12

all that stuff. So we're not in that

45:14

envial position of being saying, hey, you

45:17

know what, we really don't need anybody,

45:19

we can, I mean, we actually have

45:21

the ability to produce everything we need

45:23

right here, But that would take years

45:25

to develop. We're not in that position

45:27

today. And, you know, so if, if

45:29

I was going to do this and I

45:32

was president, I'd say, look, we're going to

45:34

focus instead of these tariffs, I

45:36

would have gone, hey, let's just

45:38

focus on building internet, our internal,

45:40

our internal, our internal, we're going

45:42

to focus all of our efforts, reduce

45:45

our deficits, those are fine. But

45:47

you're not even really having great

45:49

success at that right now because

45:51

every time. federal judge blocking the

45:53

deportation of individuals or blocking tax

45:55

you know blocking spending cuts or

45:57

blocking the termination of federal employees.

45:59

So, you know, that's that he's making

46:02

some very minor progress in that area,

46:04

but again, everything you're trying to do

46:06

is, you know, you're, you're getting blocked

46:08

at every turn and then you turn

46:11

around and do these exorbitant tariffs, which

46:13

again, you know, I'm, I'm supportive of

46:15

the administration, but he made a mistake.

46:17

And there's, and that's the only way

46:20

to classify this. And if you're president

46:22

Trump. You've got to acknowledge, hey, you

46:24

know what? I did this. I was

46:26

taking advice from the people I hired

46:29

as council. They came to me, Howard,

46:31

letnik, whoever else came to me and

46:33

said, this is the way to do

46:35

it. I took their counsel, I took

46:38

their advice. Clearly, I'm incorrect. And we

46:40

need to, we need to step back

46:42

and put a pause on these tariffs

46:45

for the time being and rethink our

46:47

strategy. This is still something we want

46:49

to achieve, something we're going to achieve.

46:51

But we need to rethink how we

46:54

approach this and then, you know, kind

46:56

of go back to the drawing board

46:58

and start over and make the right

47:00

thing. But this is a candid kind

47:03

of cleaning a loaded gun, right? I

47:05

mean, you may get away with it,

47:07

but there's a risk that you want.

47:09

And in this case, it looks like

47:12

this was a risk he's not going

47:14

to get away with. Well, and so

47:16

that so, okay, this is the crux

47:18

of my point here, which is, I

47:21

know, you know, you know, personally I

47:23

think this is just an opening salvo

47:25

for Trump and it's just it's so

47:27

all his people can point and say

47:30

this guy is really mad and crazy

47:32

let's negotiate something better but whatever let's

47:34

say though it is the fact is

47:36

it is what it is right so

47:39

let's say Trump just doubles down on

47:41

this thing right that's that's the world

47:43

that people have to live in and

47:45

to your point about okay yeah we

47:48

don't make our TVs we don't make

47:50

our blue jeans yeah you're right But

47:52

those countries that sell us blue jeans

47:54

and TVs, can they do without selling

47:57

that to us? Can they have those

47:59

products be absorbed by... demand around the

48:01

rest of the world with no problems.

48:03

I don't know if they can. The

48:06

US is such a big player here.

48:08

Absolutely. And there's also, just make this

48:10

point and then you can react to

48:13

it. Sure, the initial response of all

48:15

these countries is very understandably is going

48:17

to be ignominy and anger and frustration,

48:19

right? And there may be a sense

48:22

of like, all, let's retaliate or let's

48:24

bind together and let's all agree to

48:26

become our own trading bloc or whatnot.

48:28

There's a. there is a pretty big,

48:31

you know, benefit to bolting from that

48:33

herd early and cozing up to America

48:35

and saying, hey, you know what, let's

48:37

work out a deal, right? Like, I

48:40

know those guys are angry with you,

48:42

I'm going to be your buddy, let's

48:44

work at a deal, right? Like, I

48:46

know those guys are angry with you,

48:49

I'm going to be your buddy, like

48:51

if people start lining up at the

48:53

trough and getting great deals and you're

48:55

getting iced out because you're you know,

48:58

just trying to stand up principle. Can

49:00

you do that? And I think that's

49:02

the bet that Trump is making here,

49:04

where he is saying, I have got

49:07

the best hand at the table, and

49:09

I basically can just push these guys

49:11

into an end, and I'm getting, not

49:13

saying this is good, I'm not saying

49:16

this is the, and I think he's

49:18

looking at it like a war footing,

49:20

right? Like, it may be years before

49:22

I'm proven right on this, and I'm

49:25

willing to wait that. you know, hey

49:27

I got this crappy economy and everybody

49:29

like get ready we're enough to tighten

49:31

our belts and it would if there

49:34

is a recession to come the sooner

49:36

it comes is the better for him

49:38

so that maybe by the midterm elections

49:41

you know we've bought them in our

49:43

beginning to show signs of progress again

49:45

and then they can say hey everybody

49:47

look I was right we had some

49:50

rough times but now everything's starting to

49:52

get good right and so this may

49:54

be part of that. You know war

49:56

footing campaign like alright I'm gonna let

49:59

this thing rage for a bit and

50:01

it's early on enough where I still

50:03

have good enough ratings You know I

50:05

can I can deal with some souring

50:08

sentiment. I can deal with some pain

50:10

in this stock market. And maybe even

50:12

I lose the midterms, but I got

50:14

enough of the stuff I needed to

50:17

get done early on in my administration

50:19

that the benefits finally manifested in years

50:21

late two, three, and four, right? Yeah,

50:23

and that's, and it could very well

50:26

be the case. I'm not sure that

50:28

Trump has the staying power for that

50:30

in terms of, you know, just his

50:32

personality. There is a bit of personal

50:35

ego he has to deal with. So

50:37

is he willing to stand in front

50:39

of this train for six, eight, 12,

50:41

14, 18 months, 24 months, go through

50:44

a fairly deep recession, lose the House

50:46

and the Senate in upcoming midterms next

50:48

year, which basically makes him a lame

50:50

duck president for the last two years

50:53

that that occurs. So again, he's got

50:55

about 16 months to get this to

50:57

work. And so, you know, maybe you're

50:59

right. these other countries start lining up

51:02

at the trough and saying, hey, I'll

51:04

kind of deal with you to get

51:06

this done because, you know, a fair

51:09

point, which is that these countries, a

51:11

lot of them are very, very dependent,

51:13

emerging markets in particular, very, very dependent

51:15

on the US. We get a cold,

51:18

they get the flu. So, you know,

51:20

they are very dependent upon their economies

51:22

are very dependent upon the US for

51:24

their livelihoods for their livelihoods. So again,

51:27

this is early, early, So, you know,

51:29

we're we're very early into this and

51:31

by the end of the next week,

51:33

hopefully we'll have some some kind of

51:36

breaks in some of this and we'll

51:38

kind of get to start to see

51:40

some of these, you know, negotiations starting

51:42

to play out favorably for the US

51:45

and if that occurs this market should

51:47

do very very well going from there,

51:49

certainly alleviate some of the short-term pressure

51:51

at least. You know who's going to

51:54

be first at the trough? The penguins.

51:56

the penguins. They're going to break first.

51:58

Yep, that's my I'm placing my money

52:00

on them. And look, you know, we're

52:03

speculating. We could be wrong. I'm I'm

52:05

just this is somebody who's been listening

52:07

and watching this team really closely. I

52:09

see them as having that sort of

52:12

war footing level of commitment that it's

52:14

going to be rough, that they are

52:16

going to take fire, both foe-driven and

52:18

friendly, but that they're going to win

52:21

in the end here. And who knows?

52:23

Maybe a right lance, maybe there's some

52:25

moment there where Trump just blanks and

52:27

his ego makes him reverse at all.

52:30

But my point is just that everybody

52:32

thought he coming in, coming in, he

52:34

was going to be like Trump one.

52:37

where, you know, at the first sign

52:39

of, you know, a wiggle in the

52:41

market or something that just made him

52:43

look bad, he was gonna reverse and

52:46

try to talk about a grade he

52:48

was, I think it might be a,

52:50

it might be a different guy this

52:52

time and therefore you've got to just

52:55

be aware of this potential if you're

52:57

expecting him to blink. Yeah, no, absolutely.

52:59

That's absolutely true case. You know, one

53:01

thing that I think he needs is

53:04

I think he needs somebody that is

53:06

willing to stand up to him and

53:08

say no. That should be a guy

53:10

like Howard Lutnik who won't, unfortunately, Scott

53:13

Besson won't. And you need guys in

53:15

those positions in particular that will say

53:17

this is not good policy or this

53:19

isn't the right way to approach this.

53:22

This isn't the thing to do here.

53:24

We should think of a better strategy.

53:26

Scott Besson has just made two very

53:28

bad statements over the last few days,

53:31

just kind of really just trying to

53:33

appease. his position but the administration rather

53:35

than saying look here's an issue we're

53:37

aware of it and we're going to

53:40

work through it and I am working

53:42

directly with the president to try to

53:44

come up with a better solution that

53:46

would have been a much better statement

53:49

from best and for the markets than

53:51

the ones he made yeah well and

53:53

again I think that's part of because

53:55

they've agreed on the war plan and

53:58

they're they're lashed to the mast so

54:00

we'll see and that's that's part of

54:02

the issue look you know I made

54:05

a mistake recently I bought a net

54:07

risk networks. We sold it, unfortunately, a

54:09

fairly decent loss, but that happens sometimes,

54:11

but we made a mistake, right? And

54:14

that happens in portfolio management. The problem

54:16

with the administration is, is I don't

54:18

think they have the ability to stand

54:20

up and say, we made a mistake,

54:23

we got to fix this. And that

54:25

subjects potentially the economy to much more

54:27

of a negative impact than it would

54:29

necessarily need to be otherwise. Yeah, I

54:32

mean, this is a fairly easy fix,

54:34

right? This is a fairly easy fix

54:36

to come out and just say, hey,

54:38

look, you know what? The way these

54:41

tariffs are calculated was incorrect. We need

54:43

to come up with a better negotiation,

54:45

whatever. I know, whatever you get there,

54:47

but some of which you just got

54:50

to say, I made a mistake and

54:52

then try to fix the problem. Right.

54:54

And he may. I don't think he

54:56

will, at least not any time soon.

54:59

And there's this tweet here from Bill

55:01

Gross. I just want to get your

55:03

reaction to. So this is an epic

55:05

economic and market event similar to 1971

55:08

and the end of the gold standard,

55:10

except with immediate negative consequences. Trump can't

55:12

back down any time soon. He's too

55:14

macho for that. So, you know, to

55:17

me, this means Bill is sort of

55:19

thinking similar to me, which is this

55:21

is not just a trial balloon type

55:23

of thing. This is like a crossing

55:26

of the Rubicon. or feels like the

55:28

crossing of a rubicon. It seems like

55:30

Bill C is the same thing. He

55:33

also says from an investing standpoint, investors

55:35

should not try to catch a falling

55:37

knife. Today's appealing bargains will be around

55:39

tomorrow and the next day. And he

55:42

says here that buying domestic companies such

55:44

as AT&T and Verizon for relatively safe

55:46

dividends and a falling interest rate. world

55:48

probably makes sense, but even with these

55:51

be careful as they're approaching over bought

55:53

territory. By for instance in our dividend

55:55

equity growth model, we own Verizon, we

55:57

own Philip Morris, so you know, that's

56:00

right. Don't listen to Bill Gross though.

56:02

He's been consistently wrong for the last

56:04

10 years. So that's one of the

56:06

worst guys to take advice from in

56:09

terms of managing your money. So I

56:11

would just completely discount that one all

56:13

together. Okay, that yeah, out with the

56:15

old bond king, in with the new

56:18

bond king, Lance Roberts. No, no, no,

56:20

no, he's just been terribly wrong on

56:22

his calls back in 2013. He was

56:24

like, interest rates are going to 5%

56:27

they went to almost zero. So, you

56:29

know, he's consistently, and that's why he's

56:31

no longer with Pymco, by the way.

56:33

It's just been consistently wrong for a

56:36

very long period of time. And that's,

56:38

you know, he was once the top

56:40

of his game in the top of

56:42

his game in the bond market and

56:45

the bond market and the bond market.

56:47

you know just just just be just

56:49

be careful when when bond people are

56:51

giving you stock instructions. That's actually a

56:54

good point. Okay. Well, look Lance, you

56:56

know, obviously the game has changed a

56:58

lot here in recent days. How does

57:01

this change R. A strategy if at

57:03

all? Well, we're about to trigger that

57:05

our big cell signal, right? So. That's

57:07

going to occur today, most likely. We

57:10

won't know until after the close of

57:12

the market, but it will most likely

57:14

either trigger today or first part of

57:16

next week. And so what that suggests

57:19

is that we need to reduce equity

57:21

risk for, but that doesn't mean reduce

57:23

risk now. Historically, when you get these

57:25

signals, they typically occur when the market

57:28

is deeply oversold. And right now, the

57:30

markets are three standard deviations oversold by

57:32

a large degree. I mean, we're very

57:34

deviated from moving averages. We're sitting on

57:37

supports to go back a decent ways.

57:39

So you've got this extreme negative sentiment,

57:41

extreme negative position. So you're going to

57:43

get the cell signal and then the

57:46

markets are going to route. And the

57:48

markets for whatever reason the markets are

57:50

going to route. Some piece of good

57:52

news, the Fed says, hey, maybe we

57:55

need to talk about cutting rates, whatever.

57:57

So the market rallies, we're going to

57:59

get to 56, 57, 100 there, people

58:01

are starting to get a variable. you're

58:04

going to start getting really bullish headlines.

58:06

Tom Lee's going to come out, tell

58:08

you that the bull market's back on,

58:10

Ed Yardini's going to come out, tell

58:13

you the market's going to 10,000, whatever.

58:15

And when that occurs, that's where you

58:17

want to sell. Because most likely, you

58:19

are going to have another down drift

58:22

in the market simply because the economic

58:24

data is starting to slow down. You've

58:26

got a lot of trap longs in

58:29

the markets that are looking for an

58:31

exit. So they're going to access the

58:33

market. You've got a lot of overhead

58:35

resistance now. You've got these longer term

58:38

moving averages now crossing over. So that's

58:40

now a big overhead like resistance level

58:42

like a ceiling that stocks you have

58:44

trouble getting above. And then you get

58:47

this next decline. And as I wrote

58:49

about this week is that I think

58:51

what we're starting to set up for

58:53

is something very similar to 2022. where

58:56

we have this playbook where the market

58:58

declined that rallied and declined, rallied again,

59:00

the client finally set the bottom and

59:02

that was the bottom of October of

59:05

22. But I think you get this

59:07

stair step down over the course of

59:09

this year as we deal with slower

59:11

economic growth. Now this is all assuming

59:14

that we don't have a financial event

59:16

of some sort crop up, right? So

59:18

it's a normal recessionary kind of draw

59:20

down in the markets. And, you know,

59:23

this, that's, you know, back on January

59:25

7th, we wrote this article called curbier

59:27

enthusiasm, talking about, you know, expecting no

59:29

returns this year, higher volatility, well, here

59:32

you are, right, this is exactly what's

59:34

happened. So again, you know, I think

59:36

you get this rally, you sell into

59:38

that rally, wait for the next decline,

59:41

and then you can start kind of

59:43

trying to add some exposure stuff that's

59:45

getting truly oversold really deeply. equity exposure

59:47

back in your portfolio. And when we

59:50

get to the bottom of this decline,

59:52

that's probably going to be a point

59:54

of where we reduce our bond exposure

59:57

and over weight equity at that point.

59:59

Got it. All right. So, sorry. Just

1:00:01

so I understand, though, it sounds like

1:00:03

you say you're probably today going to

1:00:06

trigger the signal that says, hey, we

1:00:08

should bring our, was it cash percentage

1:00:10

of our equity allocation up by 25%

1:00:12

or whatever? You know, you have this

1:00:15

25% moves, right? Yeah. So, well, and

1:00:17

again, it doesn't mean we do it

1:00:19

all at once, though. It doesn't mean

1:00:21

we go 20% cash today. Well, like

1:00:24

we sold A net today, so there's

1:00:26

2% on this rally, we might sell

1:00:28

1% of 10 positions, right? And we're

1:00:30

already at 12% cash. So all we're

1:00:33

going to do is raise 12% cash.

1:00:35

So, you know, that's, you know, that's

1:00:37

how that would happen, you know, but

1:00:39

that would happen on that rally. So

1:00:42

again, this is the history of those

1:00:44

cell signals kind of going back. And,

1:00:46

you know, if we just kind of

1:00:48

zoom in this over the last 10

1:00:51

years, but just kind of looking your,

1:00:53

your, your, The market

1:00:55

is getting decently oversold here. We're 20

1:00:58

on the weekly RSI or 30 on

1:01:00

the weekly RSI. Normally that's where markets

1:01:02

at least temporarily bombed. So this is

1:01:05

2022 right here. So this was the

1:01:07

initial sales. Let me back just a

1:01:09

smidge. So we get the entirety

1:01:11

of 2022 in here. So here's the

1:01:14

peak of the market in 2021. We

1:01:16

started selling off. triggered the cell

1:01:18

signal, then you see this big rally

1:01:20

in the markets actually got above the

1:01:23

moving averages, right? So everybody got

1:01:25

very bullish at this point. So don't

1:01:27

have the bull markets back and then

1:01:29

drafted lower. We then had another

1:01:31

big rally back to the moving average

1:01:34

failed there again, and he set your

1:01:36

bottom in 2022. I think that's a

1:01:38

very similar playbook we have this year

1:01:41

because of this draft we've had

1:01:43

on a weekly basis. This is a

1:01:45

very large decline over a one week

1:01:47

period. So you get this rally

1:01:49

back. fairly substantial. Again, 55, 56, 5700.

1:01:52

Again, don't pick a number like, oh,

1:01:54

when we get to 5700, I'm

1:01:56

going to sell no. Not the address.

1:01:58

We're not looking for specific house in

1:02:01

the neighborhood. We're just looking for

1:02:03

the neighborhood, right? So we're on I-10

1:02:05

heading into Houston when you see the

1:02:07

city limit side, start selling, right? You

1:02:10

know, I'm going to see Adam. What's

1:02:12

what big city you live close

1:02:14

to, Adam? Santa Rosa. Okay, so when

1:02:16

I start seeing that San Francisco, San

1:02:19

Francisco, San Francisco, that's a good

1:02:21

time to start. But I see that

1:02:23

the high rises of the San Francisco

1:02:25

skyline start selling, right? I don't

1:02:27

need to be into. Yeah, that's the

1:02:30

point. So yeah but somewhere in this

1:02:32

range start to reduce some exposure

1:02:34

I think you come down here at

1:02:36

least going to retest these loads at

1:02:39

some point. Maybe not set a

1:02:41

new low but at least probably retest

1:02:43

these loads before this is all over

1:02:45

and then we see this market kind

1:02:48

of start to heal up and we'll

1:02:50

begin to see this this cross

1:02:52

now I want to back this up

1:02:54

real quick because I want to show

1:02:57

you something important. Not every cross.

1:02:59

is a major mean reverting event. And

1:03:01

this is important to consider. So let's

1:03:03

take this back 35 years for

1:03:05

example. So if you go back in

1:03:08

history, there are periods where these crosses

1:03:10

have been consistent with major bear

1:03:12

markets, the dot-com crash, the 2008 financial

1:03:14

crisis. So it certainly could be indicating

1:03:17

that we're going into a much

1:03:19

larger corrective cycle. However, There's

1:03:21

a lot of times, particularly over

1:03:23

the last decade, that these correct

1:03:25

these crosses are short in nature

1:03:28

and these are more event driven

1:03:30

issues. So this was this first

1:03:32

one on the left. This was

1:03:34

the end of QE1 and the

1:03:36

start of QE2. The second one

1:03:38

was the end of QE2 and

1:03:41

the beginning of operation twist. This

1:03:43

third one in 2015 16 was

1:03:45

Brexit. Very specific events. Very specific

1:03:47

events. Once it was over. pandemic,

1:03:49

big correction and very quickly, crossover,

1:03:52

sell everything, get back in the

1:03:54

markets a couple of months later,

1:03:56

specific event driven. the decline in

1:03:58

2021, but different because it was

1:04:00

the Fed was hiking rates, we

1:04:03

were worried about recession risk, never

1:04:05

happened, but we were worried about

1:04:07

recession, had the Russia-Ukraine thing going

1:04:09

on. So I took a longer

1:04:11

period of time. Given that this

1:04:13

is an event-specific event without a

1:04:16

recession yet, this could be fairly

1:04:18

short-lived. We could see the cell

1:04:20

signal pop down, and in three

1:04:22

months we're back on a buy

1:04:24

signal and, you know, overweight inequiting

1:04:27

equities. I'm not saying that's the

1:04:29

case, but again, don't just assume

1:04:31

that just because you get the

1:04:33

signal, you should sell everything to

1:04:35

cash because that could leave you

1:04:37

really sitting on the sidelines for

1:04:40

way too long trying to figure

1:04:42

out how to get back in.

1:04:44

I think you're on mute. Workday

1:04:46

is starting to sound the same.

1:04:48

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with a risk-free. Yeah,

1:05:42

and that's going to be the toughest thing for

1:05:45

a lot of people right you said that psychologically

1:05:47

once you've moved to cash It's it's hard for

1:05:49

most people to get back into the market then

1:05:51

the market moves and then they think well It's

1:05:53

gone up. Surely it's going to pull back and

1:05:55

then they they just sit watching the thing keep

1:05:58

going up. So folks try not to get paralyzed

1:06:00

in that state as well, but

1:06:03

obviously, you know, prioritize defense and safety

1:06:05

right now. All right, you know,

1:06:07

I've meant to mention this earlier,

1:06:09

but Lance, when we were talking

1:06:11

about the heightened risk of recession

1:06:13

this year, I just wanted to

1:06:15

remind folks that I, I finally

1:06:17

published my updated version of the

1:06:20

Layoff Survival Guide, which has, I

1:06:22

think, some really helpful information for

1:06:24

what to do before you potentially

1:06:26

get laid off if you work

1:06:28

for a paycheck, and then definitely

1:06:30

has some steps you should take

1:06:32

immediately upon learning that you get laid

1:06:34

off if you're unfortunate enough to have

1:06:36

that happen. And so if you haven't

1:06:39

read that yet, folks, just go to

1:06:41

thoughtful money.com/layoffs. It's totally free. Highly recommend

1:06:43

that you just at least, you know.

1:06:46

printed out and just put in

1:06:48

a drawer somewhere. Hopefully you'll never

1:06:50

need it. But probably worth everybody

1:06:52

who works for a paycheck reading

1:06:54

at least the first half of

1:06:56

ways that you can hopefully just

1:06:59

reduce your your odds of getting

1:07:01

laid off during tough times for

1:07:03

employers. All right Lance, I guess

1:07:05

let's go to trades. Have you

1:07:07

guys been making any trades in

1:07:09

this carnage or are you just

1:07:11

sort of hunkering down? Um, well,

1:07:13

basically, you know, we had already

1:07:15

taken a lot of profits and

1:07:17

stuff, like we'd reduced our energy

1:07:19

exposure going into this because we

1:07:22

were worried about the impact on

1:07:24

oil and gas and oil prices

1:07:26

in general, that's paid off well,

1:07:28

paid off well, because oil has

1:07:30

gotten colobbered. Yeah, and, and, and,

1:07:32

which is also another problem for

1:07:34

Trump's agenda as well, drill, drill

1:07:36

may be drill, maybe more like,

1:07:38

fold, because not necessarily profitable to

1:07:40

drill at these levels. So but

1:07:43

we'd already done a lot of profit

1:07:45

taking. I wish you know in hindsight sure

1:07:47

wish I would have done a whole lot

1:07:49

more. But you know we had our bond

1:07:51

exposure which bonds have been doing

1:07:53

a great job of hedging and

1:07:55

the hedging portfolio risk at this

1:07:57

point. We did sell like so we bought a

1:07:59

net. not too long ago, but bought

1:08:02

it too early and made a

1:08:04

mistake there. So we closed that

1:08:06

position out. So we'll probably wind

1:08:08

up buying it back at some

1:08:10

point. We gotta wait 30 days

1:08:12

though for that for the tax

1:08:15

law sale. But you know, again,

1:08:17

there's some things that we'll be

1:08:19

doing over the course of this

1:08:21

next rally. We'll certainly reduce risk

1:08:23

more. So more of the trades

1:08:25

will occur on a rally versus

1:08:28

the decline. Well, those are

1:08:30

the more fun trades, right, where you're

1:08:32

hoping that things are going to go

1:08:34

up. So let's hope we get there

1:08:36

sooner rather than later. All right, we

1:08:38

might have time to to get a

1:08:40

rant in. I've got a quick just

1:08:43

channel update for folks to I'm going

1:08:45

to give in a second. But first,

1:08:47

just I noticed that RIA on your

1:08:49

website, Lance, you guys published your personal

1:08:51

finance team published a new guide to

1:08:53

estate planning. Yes. And highly recommend folks

1:08:56

go read that. It's definitely a great

1:08:58

resource. I just want to tie that

1:09:00

to a call I had this week.

1:09:02

A couple reached out to have a

1:09:04

consultation with one of the financial advisors

1:09:06

and they were sharing their personal situation

1:09:08

with me and sadly, it was a

1:09:11

couple, an older couple where the gentleman

1:09:13

has a terminal illness. And I don't

1:09:15

know if you may be watching or

1:09:17

not, but if you are, sir, I

1:09:19

really do wish you all the best

1:09:21

as we discussed. So this gentleman, you

1:09:24

know, is doing the right thing. He

1:09:26

has been the principal handler of the

1:09:28

finances in his relationship. and his spouse

1:09:30

has not been involved. And he is

1:09:32

realizing he's not going to be around

1:09:34

to, you know, be the steward of

1:09:36

their financial prospects. And so he's now

1:09:39

looking to find a financial quarterback that

1:09:41

he can hand the baton to, hopefully

1:09:43

in time with enough time so that.

1:09:45

He can really get to know the

1:09:47

right advisor, pick the one that's philosophically

1:09:49

aligned with him, but also give his

1:09:52

spouse time to develop a relationship with

1:09:54

the advisor so that on the sad

1:09:56

day where he can no longer attend

1:09:58

to their financial affairs, the spouse feels

1:10:00

like she's got a good team around

1:10:02

her that she feels comfortable with. And

1:10:04

I've mentioned this many times before on

1:10:07

the program, but this conversation really just

1:10:09

hit it home again for me again,

1:10:11

which is I know a lot of

1:10:13

DIY. are north of 50 years old

1:10:15

and I just know this from the

1:10:17

surveys that you've all have answered for

1:10:20

me. And that is fantastic that channels

1:10:22

like this help you become more informed

1:10:24

in making hopefully better investment decisions. But

1:10:26

if you are somebody like this gentleman

1:10:28

where you're basically the one owning this

1:10:30

responsibility for your family. And you don't

1:10:32

have somebody already identified as your clear

1:10:35

successor to taking over this responsibility should

1:10:37

something happen to you. Then it really

1:10:39

is one of the most, I think,

1:10:41

essential steps that you should take in

1:10:43

the near term is to try to

1:10:45

identify who that is. You know, if

1:10:48

it's a family member that can take

1:10:50

over it from you, great. Make sure

1:10:52

that they're willing to do it. Make

1:10:54

sure that you're starting to really bring

1:10:56

them up to speed on what your

1:10:58

process is and that they know how

1:11:00

you like to have. your assets invested.

1:11:03

But if your family says, hey, wait,

1:11:05

no, that's not me, I don't want

1:11:07

to do that, and that's a fine

1:11:09

answer, then say, okay, great. If it's

1:11:11

not them, then who is it going

1:11:13

to be? And identify that person now

1:11:16

and again, build the relationship with the

1:11:18

people who you're going to be leaving

1:11:20

behind so that everything is taken care

1:11:22

of, which you absolutely do not want

1:11:24

to. And I've seen this happen a

1:11:26

lot, but Lance, I'm sure you see

1:11:28

it all the time, is where the

1:11:31

person who owns the financial responsibility does

1:11:33

get incapacitated or passes away. And the

1:11:35

family is just devastated and they have

1:11:37

no clue where to go. And a

1:11:39

lot of times what happens is that's

1:11:41

where sort of the predatory players start

1:11:44

coming in. And, you know, oh, it's

1:11:46

a widow, you know, let me, let

1:11:48

me, let me, let me, let me

1:11:50

tell her to go work with our

1:11:52

fly-by-night firm. And, you know, all of

1:11:54

a sudden they find out, you know,

1:11:56

months later that they, they partnered with

1:11:59

a really, you know, bad firm, but

1:12:01

they just, they didn't have the, the

1:12:03

financial expertise to know how to make

1:12:05

a good decision. And they were making

1:12:07

decisions at a very emotionally vulnerable time

1:12:09

in their lives. Well, I mean, yeah,

1:12:12

we talk about this all the time

1:12:14

is that, you know, most of the

1:12:16

people that we deal with in terms

1:12:18

of clients is that the husband's kind

1:12:20

of in control of all the money

1:12:22

and the wife's like, I don't know

1:12:24

what's going on. And they don't know,

1:12:27

you know, kind of where anything is,

1:12:29

they don't really know what's going on

1:12:31

with the portfolio. And so one thing

1:12:33

that we do in our shop in

1:12:35

particular is that we we have a

1:12:37

lot of events all the time where

1:12:40

like we've got a crawfish will coming

1:12:42

up here soon. just recently we did

1:12:44

a batting cage event and we do

1:12:46

all these, we had an event at

1:12:48

a company that makes handmade boots. So

1:12:50

you actually go see and make boots

1:12:52

and stuff like that. So we have

1:12:55

these events to try to get husbands

1:12:57

and wives in the same place so

1:12:59

that we can talk about, hey, you

1:13:01

know, what's going on with your family,

1:13:03

blah, blah, blah, these are the things

1:13:05

and we're trying to do more family

1:13:08

events now too where like. the parents

1:13:10

bring their kids or if their kids

1:13:12

are adult kids, the adult kids bring

1:13:14

the grandkids to these events as well.

1:13:16

So we get to know the whole

1:13:18

family because the big problem is is

1:13:20

that when the husband passes away, there

1:13:23

is this, there's no relationship in a

1:13:25

lot of cases. And so the life

1:13:27

doesn't know where to go and the

1:13:29

obituary gets posted and this and look,

1:13:31

you know, you hear about ambulance chasers

1:13:33

in terms of lawyers. There are obituary

1:13:36

chasers in terms of financial advisors. They

1:13:38

look for those obituaries and they go

1:13:40

hunt down the widow of that of

1:13:42

that person and say, oh, I'm so

1:13:44

sorry for your loss, you need to

1:13:46

buy. an annuity and you know they

1:13:48

just sell them an annuity product or

1:13:51

whatever it is because there's a big

1:13:53

commission items. So it's very important that

1:13:55

you know if you're trading on your

1:13:57

own doing it yourself make sure that

1:13:59

that your spouse is involved in the

1:14:01

process you don't have a have you

1:14:04

know you should have a monthly board

1:14:06

meeting with your wife and sit down

1:14:08

say here's all here's what happened in

1:14:10

the portfolio this month this is what

1:14:12

I'm doing. She may roll her eyes

1:14:14

and say, you know, just try to

1:14:16

bring her back to say, look, I,

1:14:19

you know, I made this much money.

1:14:21

That means you can go by and

1:14:23

do Louis Vidal purse, right? You know,

1:14:25

so give her some incentive to be

1:14:27

involved with what the process of what

1:14:29

you're doing, you know, give her some,

1:14:32

not only some input, but give her

1:14:34

some benefit from all this stuff that

1:14:36

you're doing, so that she is involved

1:14:38

in that way when you do pass

1:14:40

away. care about the investing side of

1:14:42

this. Unless it's her own 401k account,

1:14:44

then she's very interested. But you know,

1:14:47

on all the stuff that I handle

1:14:49

for the family, she's like, yeah, what

1:14:51

I trust you, you do, I go,

1:14:53

but honey, when I die, what do

1:14:55

you do? She was, I'm not called

1:14:57

Danny. And I go. There you go.

1:15:00

She knows she knows she's got she's

1:15:02

got her backup identified. Yeah, yeah, but

1:15:04

that's our whole backup plan is I'm

1:15:06

going to call Danny. I go, well,

1:15:08

what if Danny's dead? And she goes,

1:15:10

well, then I'm just screwed. So, you

1:15:12

know, but but the point is is

1:15:15

that you need to have that in

1:15:17

place of some sort. And I and

1:15:19

I made a comment on a radio

1:15:21

show about last week I was visiting

1:15:23

with Danny. I'm very disappointed. and you

1:15:25

should have written it and it's called

1:15:28

sorry it's your problem now because I'm

1:15:30

dead and this is this and we've

1:15:32

talked about this before you know writing

1:15:34

a love letter to your family and

1:15:36

putting that somewhere with you know a

1:15:38

binder that has you know your account

1:15:40

numbers passwords you know all those type

1:15:43

of things in some place. that's easy

1:15:45

and consolidated. Adam will tell you this,

1:15:47

when you have to go through a

1:15:49

family member's life and try to get

1:15:51

it organized for tax purposes and estate

1:15:53

planning issues, those things, it's really, it's

1:15:56

a drag to start with because you

1:15:58

just lost somebody. But now you go

1:16:00

digging all their personal stuff, trying to

1:16:02

piece together the jigsaw puzzle of their

1:16:04

financial life for the estate planning and

1:16:06

probate whatever it is if there's no

1:16:08

will, that makes even more complicated. But

1:16:11

a simple book like this can really

1:16:13

help, you know, it goes through and

1:16:15

talks about financial information and, you know,

1:16:17

kind of putting all your stuff together

1:16:19

in one place so that it's easy

1:16:21

to organize and easy to locate, you

1:16:24

know, just all different kinds of stuff.

1:16:26

So, so again, it's $11, I mean,

1:16:28

you know, on Amazon. So again, you

1:16:30

know, it's, you know, those are simple

1:16:32

things that you should be doing, particularly

1:16:34

if you're doing it yourself. which is

1:16:36

completely great, no problem with that. But

1:16:39

at least take some of the time

1:16:41

to put the together to make sure

1:16:43

that your spouse is involved because again,

1:16:45

it will make, you know, it's not

1:16:47

just making things easier on your spouse

1:16:49

when you pass away. It's also making

1:16:52

sure that they don't get victimized after

1:16:54

the process because we see more individuals

1:16:56

than you can imagine that are sold.

1:16:58

bad products or sold, you know, things

1:17:00

that they shouldn't be in because they're

1:17:02

high commission products, etc. Because they didn't

1:17:04

know better. They were just, you know,

1:17:07

in the moment of grief, they're approached

1:17:09

by somebody says, oh, your husband just

1:17:11

died, you better do this with your

1:17:13

money or the, you know, there's gonna

1:17:15

be this huge IRS tax or maybe

1:17:17

no taxes whatsoever on the issue. But

1:17:20

they don't know that. And so it's

1:17:22

very easy to fall victim to all

1:17:24

of these, you know, kind of headlines,

1:17:26

you're going to lose all your money.

1:17:28

And they get sold into some very

1:17:30

bad situation that's very hard to unravel.

1:17:32

Yeah, it's just one of the biggest

1:17:35

acts of kindness and prudence that you

1:17:37

could do, and it doesn't take... that

1:17:39

much effort. So we've been giving you

1:17:41

guys homework the past couple weeks. I

1:17:43

would say folks your homework this week

1:17:45

is to at the very least sit

1:17:48

down with the loved ones that you

1:17:50

want to make sure cared for after

1:17:52

you're gone and just have the discussion

1:17:54

of who do we want to have

1:17:56

as the backup financial quarterback, right? Is

1:17:58

it somebody in the family or do

1:18:00

we want to go? find somebody an

1:18:03

expert outside the family. And that in

1:18:05

itself is a great first discussion, right?

1:18:07

And then if it turns out to

1:18:09

be an expert outside the family, then

1:18:11

you can have another conversation a bit

1:18:13

later, which is, okay, well, how do

1:18:16

we want to go about trying to

1:18:18

identify that person? So really, if you

1:18:20

take nothing else from this whole conversation,

1:18:22

it's to try to do that in

1:18:24

the next couple of weeks and next

1:18:26

couple of days. And obviously if you

1:18:29

want to talk to one of the

1:18:31

financial advisory firms that thoughtful money endorses

1:18:33

they are happy to have this conversation

1:18:35

with you, even if just to help

1:18:37

you think through the process. All right,

1:18:39

well look, I've got a rent here

1:18:41

Lance. So let me go through it

1:18:44

quickly. I think you and I have

1:18:46

talked about this off air, but I

1:18:48

don't think we've talked about it on

1:18:50

air, which is sometimes you got to

1:18:52

go backwards to move forwards. Pardon me?

1:18:54

I'll give a market. A lot like

1:18:57

in the market, yeah. But, you know,

1:18:59

I've been pretty transparent with folks and

1:19:01

certainly on my social media channels about

1:19:03

the fact that I've been leaning pretty

1:19:05

hard into a fitness regime, a strength

1:19:07

training regime, and about a month and

1:19:09

a half ago, I really just started

1:19:12

realizing, you know what, these aches and

1:19:14

pains I have are really becoming kind

1:19:16

of debilitating. And I realized two things.

1:19:18

I was definitely over training, so I

1:19:20

was working out too intensely, too frequently,

1:19:22

or too frequently given the intensity. And

1:19:25

then secondly, I was starting to have

1:19:27

some joint issues, and I was just

1:19:29

telling myself, right, just train through them,

1:19:31

train through them, and then I realized,

1:19:33

wait a minute, you're actually doing more

1:19:35

damage at this point in time, right?

1:19:37

So part. of this was just me

1:19:40

telling myself, look, I got to give

1:19:42

my body some, you're raising your hand.

1:19:44

Yeah, how worded you? Yeah. So giving

1:19:46

my body some chance to heal, right?

1:19:48

But also part of it too is,

1:19:50

I was, you know, I've worked out

1:19:53

a lot in my life in gyms,

1:19:55

but you know, it'd been a while

1:19:57

since I had actually had a. professional

1:19:59

trainer actually look at my form and

1:20:01

critique me and see where I might

1:20:03

be doing wrong. And as I like

1:20:05

to say often, you know, by definition

1:20:08

we're blind to our blind spots, right?

1:20:10

So I did go in and first

1:20:12

have an initial consultation with a trainer

1:20:14

and sure enough. you know, some of

1:20:16

the big lifts I was doing, he

1:20:18

said, oh, no, no, no, no, you're

1:20:21

doing it wrong here, you're making this

1:20:23

mistake here, and really help correct my

1:20:25

form. And I've actually now been working

1:20:27

with him a couple days a week

1:20:29

to, you know, we've brought the weights

1:20:31

down a bit, we're now beginning to

1:20:33

bring them back up, but making sure

1:20:36

it's done with the correct form. It's

1:20:38

also helping with the rehab on my

1:20:40

joints. And so anyways, I'm now getting

1:20:42

not quite back yet, but I'm now

1:20:44

getting pretty close to where I was

1:20:46

before, but I've got much better form

1:20:49

and my body is in much better

1:20:51

shape. And you know, the two key

1:20:53

lessons on this is, hey, sometimes you

1:20:55

do have to step backwards. You've got

1:20:57

to deconstruct what you're up to, take

1:20:59

your foot off the gas a little

1:21:01

bit, but make sure that the vehicle's

1:21:04

going in the exact right direction, and

1:21:06

that you're driving it responsibly responsibly. And

1:21:08

then once you do, then you can

1:21:10

lean back in and you can start

1:21:12

going a lot faster because you've course

1:21:14

corrected, right? So I'm benefiting from that

1:21:17

right now. It's also just a reminder

1:21:19

to me too. I think I mentioned

1:21:21

some of my mentors have been so

1:21:23

successful because they had been pretty fearless

1:21:25

about recruiting expert talent in their lives,

1:21:27

whether it's. a fitness coach, whether it's

1:21:29

a financial coach, whether it's a relationship

1:21:32

coach, whatever, they try to find the

1:21:34

best coach and then leverage the expertise

1:21:36

of that coach. And every time I

1:21:38

do it, you know, I kind of

1:21:40

resist it because I'm kind of a

1:21:42

DIY guy and I feel like I've

1:21:45

figured it out on my own and

1:21:47

whatnot. But almost every time when I

1:21:49

bring in a really good professional, I

1:21:51

realize, oh, wait a minute, no, no,

1:21:53

no, no, no, no, like, there's a

1:21:55

reason they're an expert. They actually know

1:21:57

more about this than I do. And

1:22:00

it's such a force multiplier. It's not

1:22:02

like a 10 or 20% or 20%

1:22:04

improvement. In a lot of a lot

1:22:06

of a lot of a lot of

1:22:08

a lot of a day. the exact

1:22:10

progress you want to make, invest a

1:22:13

little bit by bringing in an expert,

1:22:15

even for starting just a one-time consultation

1:22:17

and, you know, see what they may

1:22:19

be able to identify because they might

1:22:21

be able to save you months or

1:22:23

years worth of doing the wrong thing

1:22:25

with just a little bit of expert

1:22:28

insight. So I know that's the business

1:22:30

you're in, Lance, but I'll let you

1:22:32

respond to any or all that. No,

1:22:34

I mean, it's, you know, it's just

1:22:36

kind of a function of a function

1:22:38

of anything is that is that you

1:22:41

know, we all get to doing things

1:22:43

a certain way, whether it's running our

1:22:45

business or whether it's, you know, managing

1:22:47

a portfolio or working out or whatever

1:22:49

it is. And we in, we inadvertently

1:22:51

develop bad habits along the way because

1:22:53

of, you know, this is, you know,

1:22:56

one of the most common, this is

1:22:58

the way we've always done it, right?

1:23:00

Or you just ripped, you forgot they

1:23:02

said that was important and, you know,

1:23:04

you fall out of your brain. Yeah.

1:23:06

Exactly. And so this is the way

1:23:09

we've always done it. That's kind of

1:23:11

the big thing. And so, you know,

1:23:13

if you're running a business and your

1:23:15

business isn't growing the way you wanted

1:23:17

to grow, you know, we're all resistant

1:23:19

about spending money on stuff, right? It's

1:23:21

like, why am I going to pay

1:23:24

a consultant to come in? He charges

1:23:26

so much money to come in, but

1:23:28

he may make you $5 million. by

1:23:30

changing something in your that's the process

1:23:32

you work through through just building a

1:23:34

better platform. You know, can we do

1:23:37

something to improve the process that that

1:23:39

we're doing? And again, you know, we're

1:23:41

always looking and searching and talking to

1:23:43

other people and, you know, you know,

1:23:45

trying to learn and adapt and do

1:23:47

different things. Some things work, some things

1:23:49

don't. But that's the process you work

1:23:52

through through just, you know, building a

1:23:54

better platform long term. This is you

1:23:56

should always be trying to learn, always

1:23:58

be trying to grow. And then whenever

1:24:00

you reach these points of uncertainty. you

1:24:02

know that's where you want to reach

1:24:05

out ask your mentors at you know

1:24:07

hire somebody to come in you'll hire

1:24:09

a coach whatever it is and and

1:24:11

it generally pays off in spades doing

1:24:13

that you you may not like spending

1:24:15

the money on it right now but

1:24:17

it will definitely pay off in the

1:24:20

long term and like in your case

1:24:22

you'll be able to walk when you're

1:24:24

older versus that nonsense you were doing

1:24:26

before so I will. Let me say

1:24:28

one thing, though, for folks, if you've

1:24:30

got knee issues, go to YouTube, go

1:24:33

to knees over toes guy, a great,

1:24:35

great resource for rehabilitating your knees. Yeah,

1:24:37

I actually use that video to fix

1:24:39

my knee. So, absolutely. All right. Yeah.

1:24:41

All right. Well, last thing as we

1:24:43

wrap up here. I'll talk more about

1:24:45

this. in future videos and I'll probably

1:24:48

release a video in the next week

1:24:50

or so just specific to this. But

1:24:52

YouTube has been, you know, when you

1:24:54

pass 100,000 subscribers and you get the

1:24:56

fancy plaque that, you know, we got

1:24:58

birth out well money a couple of

1:25:01

months ago, they give you a YouTube

1:25:03

consultant and they're looking at your business

1:25:05

and they're telling you things that I

1:25:07

think you should do. And they have

1:25:09

been trying to get me to turn

1:25:11

on YouTube memberships for a good long

1:25:13

while. YouTube memberships are basically, it's a

1:25:16

paid perk for being a member of

1:25:18

the YouTube channel. And so, you know,

1:25:20

they've been telling me why that's good

1:25:22

for people and good for the audience

1:25:24

and good for the channel and all

1:25:26

that stuff. And I haven't done it

1:25:29

to date because I'm busy with a

1:25:31

lot of other things, but I just

1:25:33

I don't like to ask people to

1:25:35

spend money unless I feel like I

1:25:37

can give them a really good value

1:25:39

like an overwhelming value in return. And

1:25:41

there are all sorts of little perks

1:25:44

that come along with membership, you know,

1:25:46

the priority in getting responses to comments,

1:25:48

there's some live chat, there's some dedicated

1:25:50

content, there's some. emogies and iconography and

1:25:52

stuff like that. But I wanted it

1:25:54

to be really material. So I spent

1:25:57

some time talking with the expert and

1:25:59

came up with the consultant and actually

1:26:01

finally the light bulb went off and

1:26:03

came up with what I'm going to

1:26:05

do. So on a twice monthly basis

1:26:07

now going forward, I'm going to sit

1:26:09

down and I'm going to talk on

1:26:12

camera and if I can do it

1:26:14

live, I'll do it live. And The

1:26:16

number one question I get from people

1:26:18

is, hey Adam, you talked to so

1:26:20

many experts every week, like what are

1:26:22

you personally, what are the key takeaways

1:26:25

that you personally are taking from these

1:26:27

interviews? So I'm going to share exactly

1:26:29

that. Like I said, twice a month

1:26:31

I'll sit down, I'll look at the

1:26:33

interviews I've done over the past two

1:26:35

weeks, and I will summarize what my

1:26:37

key takeaways are, and if I'm taking

1:26:40

any personal action in my life based

1:26:42

off of that. I'll be doing that.

1:26:44

That's what members will get. If you

1:26:46

pick it about maybe becoming a member,

1:26:48

you'll see there's a button, a join

1:26:50

button right next to the subscribe button

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down right beneath this video here. It's

1:26:55

five bucks a month. It's not that

1:26:57

much money at all. I think it's

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like 16 cents a day. So if

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that sounds interesting to you, then sign

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up for a membership and. See what

1:27:05

you like. See if you like it.

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This is something we'll try and if

1:27:10

folks like it, we'll keep doing it

1:27:12

and maybe we'll keep building on top

1:27:14

of it. And if not, you know,

1:27:16

no harm, no foul, we tried something

1:27:18

new. If you are already a premium

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member to my sub stack, you don't

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have to sign up for membership. I

1:27:25

will make sure that you get that.

1:27:27

that video as well. So I want

1:27:29

to keep it really easy for people.

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You know, if you want to like

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dip your toe in the water, sign

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the premium perks that Thelfa Money offers,

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then sign up for our premium sub

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stack. That'll always be like the Cadillac

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version that just you get all the

1:27:49

bennies. So anyways, more on that to

1:27:51

come. All right, Lance. been a heck

1:27:53

of a week for you I know

1:27:55

I appreciate you taking so much time

1:27:57

to make sense of it for folks

1:27:59

both today but in the live stream

1:28:01

yesterday we got a lot of really

1:28:04

good feedback from folks saying that they

1:28:06

really like our ability to come in

1:28:08

and do a live stream when there's

1:28:10

something big going on in the markets

1:28:12

like that so anyways I want to

1:28:14

thank you for dedicating so much time

1:28:17

to the thoughtful money audience during such

1:28:19

a chaotic week. Yeah, I don't know

1:28:21

if it's been like fun for investors

1:28:23

this week, but it definitely has given

1:28:25

us some really interesting things to process

1:28:27

and follow. Hopefully things will continue to

1:28:29

be interesting, but hopefully in a more

1:28:32

fun way for investors next week, but

1:28:34

no matter what happens, you'll be here

1:28:36

making sense for us next week. There

1:28:38

you go. Thank you. All right. Any

1:28:40

bits of parting words for advice on

1:28:42

a week where maybe some people are

1:28:45

looking at their screens and feeling like

1:28:47

committing here or carry? Just don't. I've

1:28:49

said this the other day and it's

1:28:51

in is that, you know, the best

1:28:53

thing you can do on a day

1:28:55

like today or yesterday is just turn

1:28:57

it all off and, you know, go

1:29:00

focus on your job or, you know,

1:29:02

focus on your family, go place your

1:29:04

family, go place your kids. Yeah, yeah,

1:29:06

do something else because there's nothing you

1:29:08

can do about it today. There's no

1:29:10

sense in sitting around staring at staring

1:29:13

at the screen, you know, going on

1:29:15

wish I wish I would have or

1:29:17

I would have or I should have,

1:29:19

you know, you know, that's not healthy

1:29:21

and it's not helpful. So just, you

1:29:23

know, turn it all off for today.

1:29:25

Again, we'll see what happens over the

1:29:28

weekend, you know, as we were talking,

1:29:30

Trump announced that Vietnam has come to

1:29:32

the table and they're negotiating a deal.

1:29:34

So maybe we'll get some good news

1:29:36

over the weekend. They'll get this market

1:29:38

going. penguins. And maybe the penguins may

1:29:41

get an idea. We'll see what

1:29:43

We'll see what happens.

1:29:45

All right. All right. Well, look,

1:29:47

right. show your your look,

1:29:49

folks, to Lance by hitting that

1:29:51

show your and then clicking the

1:29:53

hitting that like

1:29:56

button as well then clicking

1:29:58

the subscribe button

1:30:00

below as well as

1:30:02

that little bell

1:30:04

icon right next to

1:30:06

it. Lance, brother,

1:30:09

really appreciate it all.

1:30:11

look forward to

1:30:13

seeing you next week.

1:30:15

you next week. You got it. See

1:30:17

you in. right, everybody

1:30:19

else. Thanks so much

1:30:21

for watching. watching.