0:00

And this is the problem with the markets

0:02

right now, is that it's today we have tariffs

0:04

tomorrow. We don't have tariffs. It's this tariffs

0:06

today. It's that tariff tomorrow. And so

0:09

there's no way to price in. And so analysts

0:11

are kind of all over the board right

0:13

now trying to figure out how to value

0:15

the market, which is all that's happening, right?

0:17

Markets are just repricing right now, trying to

0:19

figure out what earnings are going to be 12

0:21

months from now and 24 months from now. And

0:23

you can't do that because tariffs are all over

0:26

the all over the board. Welcome

0:33

to Thawful Money. I'm Thawful Money

0:35

founder and your host Adam Taggart.

0:37

Welcome you here at the end

0:39

of another week for another weekly

0:42

market recap featuring my good friend,

0:44

the exigent portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

0:46

Lance, how are you? Well, I've been better. This

0:48

has been a little bit of a tough week,

0:51

so, you know. Well, I know we

0:53

see you've sold everything behind you

0:55

in that your usual studio isn't

0:57

there are you recording this from

0:59

a cardboard box outside in the

1:01

sidewalk? Exactly. No, my my actual

1:03

my normal computer crashed this week and

1:06

so I had to send it into the shop

1:08

to get fixed. I'm running off a

1:10

temporary laptop that's about five years

1:12

old. So we're gonna see how

1:14

this goes. That feels sort of

1:16

appropriate for this week, where everybody

1:18

is just kind of groping around

1:21

in the dark trying to figure

1:23

out where the market's going to

1:25

go. I used the word exigent

1:27

to describe you this week, Lance.

1:29

That means driven by a purposeful

1:31

urgency. Maybe that maybe that describes

1:33

investors looking for some sort of

1:35

relief in this market, but it

1:37

also applies to today's rant if we

1:40

can get to it. So lots of talk

1:42

about, let's just jump on in. So,

1:44

sort of title today's discussion, the elusive

1:46

rally, because, you know, folks have been

1:48

thinking, all right, at some point there's

1:50

going to be a bottom here last

1:52

week. We talked about the potential for

1:54

a tradable rally. We got one, but

1:57

it was like a day and a

1:59

half long. Is that all we're going

2:01

to get or what's going on? Yeah,

2:03

well, no, it's been, you know, it's

2:05

been interesting. I mean, really for the

2:07

last couple of weeks, you know, this

2:10

market's been trying to rally, you know,

2:12

we get a rally, we got to

2:14

sell off, get a rally, you sell

2:16

up, you know, let's just, actually, let's

2:18

go to the charts. And this is

2:20

just a kind of a kind of

2:22

really last two weeks, this market's rally.

2:25

decline, rally, decline, rally, decline. It's been

2:27

an upward trend channel until today and

2:29

we broke to the bottom side of

2:31

that. So that's not a good sign

2:33

at all. It's something that we, you

2:35

know, we obviously have been, you know,

2:37

hoping wouldn't happen, but it is what

2:40

it is. And again, there's a couple

2:42

of things that are going on. You

2:44

won't be real careful about, you know,

2:46

you know, when something happens like this

2:48

for one day is making an immediate,

2:50

making an immediate immediate immediate assumptions, There's

2:52

a lot of things that are happening

2:55

right now between now and next Tuesday

2:57

that are having a lot of impacts

2:59

on the markets and we'll certainly get

3:01

into that a little bit more here

3:03

as well but you know again kind

3:05

of the the bigger issue again something

3:08

that's you know is certainly worth considering

3:10

and again we've got this is also

3:12

comes with that kind of typical grain

3:14

of salt to some degree because you

3:16

know over the last 15 years. a

3:18

lot of these indicators like the 50

3:20

day like the 200 day, they have

3:23

not been as reliable of break points

3:25

as they were previously because of all

3:27

these monetary interventions, etc. You know, historically,

3:29

if you broke the 200 day moving

3:31

average, that was a great kind of

3:33

sign to, you know, get out of

3:35

the markets because you're going to have

3:38

a bigger correction over a certain period

3:40

of time. And we've seen these failures

3:42

before, same thing with the 50 day

3:44

crossing below the 200 day moving average.

3:46

That's typically the death cross and we've

3:48

seen those over the last 15 years

3:51

get reversed very quickly. And the market's

3:53

frustrating, you know, people thinking, I'm going

3:55

to short the market make a lot

3:57

of. money. It's been very frustrating for

3:59

that because the Fed steps in or

4:01

something happens that causes the market to

4:03

reverse. Now, again, this time is different

4:06

is that every time is we don't

4:08

have potentially a Fed at the ready

4:10

to come stepping into the markets, although

4:12

they did just announce, you know, kind

4:14

of the decline of QT. We talked

4:16

about that last week. But, you know,

4:18

we did fail at the two hundred

4:21

a moving average. That's certainly not a

4:23

good bullish sign here. Again, doesn't mean

4:25

the markets are about to crash and

4:27

fall apart, but it does suggest we're

4:29

probably going to be struggling here for

4:31

a while longer. Yeah, hey, sorry, let

4:34

me just interject here. I just want

4:36

to note for folks that we're recording

4:38

this on Friday morning, so the market

4:40

still has several hours worth of trading

4:42

ahead of it. I just mentioned that

4:44

because given the markets we've had this

4:46

week. there's potential that you know Trump

4:49

could announce tearful leaf in an hour

4:51

and this thing could rally and close

4:53

green so I just just in case

4:55

the market may you know ends up

4:57

up for the day I want to

4:59

folks to know that we're not you

5:01

know we're not saying for sure the

5:04

market closed down this much on Friday

5:06

yet yeah and that's that's a great

5:08

point because again that that could certainly

5:10

happen in fact there was a headline

5:12

out just a little bit ago that

5:14

EU is preparing kind of negotiations for

5:16

Trump on tariffs because of these new

5:19

auto tariffs. So, you know, now we're

5:21

going to see potentially and this this

5:23

apparently this group of EU countries led

5:25

by France and what France is famous

5:27

for surrendering. So, you know, we'll see

5:29

what we'll see what this means for

5:32

tariffs, you know, come next week. And

5:34

I want to dive more deeply into

5:36

this here in a bit. It's one

5:38

of the bullet points on my list

5:40

here, but just your point about the

5:42

Fed. you know, its interventions have kind

5:44

of made T.A. not quite as predictive

5:47

as it's been in the past. Right.

5:49

You're right. Is now sitting on its

5:51

hand a bit more, but it's been

5:53

replaced with Trump, right, who is interjecting

5:55

all sorts of non-market changes right left

5:57

and center right now. So that's potentially

5:59

even that same factor on steroids at

6:02

this moment in time. Exactly. Now, like

6:04

I've said then. There's a couple of

6:06

things, you know, you know, the MACD

6:08

buy signal still in place. It's at

6:10

risk right now, but it's at a

6:12

very low level. So again, even if

6:15

we have a further decline, it's not

6:17

likely going to be much deeper. Relative

6:19

strength improved, it is starting to reverse

6:21

here because of the sell-off over the

6:23

last couple of days. But again, that's

6:25

also fairly low level. So again, you're

6:27

getting it back to oversold levels very,

6:30

very quickly in this market. you know

6:32

and as I said there's several factors

6:34

happening over the next few days so

6:36

so first of all today and Monday

6:38

or the last two days of the

6:40

quarter which all pension funds long term

6:42

you know you know ETFs that are

6:45

target dated or target dated ETFs etc.

6:47

Those funds as well as mutual funds

6:49

as well all need to rebalance at

6:51

the end of the quarter so again

6:53

it's interesting you know today the PCE

6:55

headline came out on inflation and. Shug

6:57

core inflation ticked up a little bit.

7:00

That's not surprising just because of your,

7:02

over your comparisons, but again, that's not

7:04

really bond friendly and bonds are doing

7:06

very well on Friday. So again, and

7:08

bonds didn't do well the last couple

7:10

of days, but markets are selling off

7:13

and there was really no news for

7:15

that. So again, a lot of this

7:17

certainly, and bonds had a previously very

7:19

strong rally, so a lot of this

7:21

really looks like end of the quarter,

7:23

We have no idea how that's going

7:25

to turn out because of what's happening.

7:28

Which typically you get a lot of

7:30

buying that comes into the market for

7:32

the beginning of the month. So you

7:34

see positioners try to position for the

7:36

month. April tends to be a stronger

7:38

month. And then on April 2nd you

7:40

have liberation day, which we have no

7:43

idea how that's going to turn out

7:45

because of what's happening with this negotiation

7:47

over tariff. You know, any positive tariff

7:49

news, this market's going to scream higher.

7:51

Any more negative tariff news, you know,

7:53

it's going to weigh on markets. But

7:56

that's really been the challenge here. And

7:58

again, I talked about this a lot

8:00

on the real investment. over the last

8:02

couple of weeks in particular is what

8:04

the markets need is they just need

8:06

terror. They need Trump to come to

8:08

the table and say, look, I'm putting

8:11

25% tariff sum. Everybody, there is no

8:13

negotiation. This is it. It's done. We're

8:15

over. Everybody's getting 25% terror. If he

8:17

would do that. markets could then say,

8:19

okay, I can factor that into what

8:21

that means for earnings. Corporate profits just

8:23

hit a record high in quarter four.

8:26

They got reported yesterday. So corporations are

8:28

doing just fine. Even with tariffs, their

8:30

corporate profits are fine. But if you

8:32

just come out and say, hey, everybody's

8:34

getting a 25% tariff or 50% tariff,

8:36

pick a number, it doesn't matter. The

8:39

markets could then say, okay, I can

8:41

factor that in to what that means

8:43

for forward earnings. Now I can justify

8:45

whether or not prices are cheap or

8:47

not. And then markets would adjust very

8:49

quickly. What markets have are really difficult

8:51

and this is the problem with the

8:54

markets right now, is that it's today

8:56

we have tariffs tomorrow, we don't have

8:58

tariffs tomorrow, it's this tariffs, it's this

9:00

tariffs, it's this tariffs, it's this tariffs

9:02

today, it's that tariffs today, it's that

9:04

tariffs tomorrow, and so there's no way

9:06

to price in. And so analysts are

9:09

kind of all over the board right

9:11

now trying to figure out, 12 months

9:13

from now and 24 months from now.

9:15

And you can't do that because tariffs

9:17

are all over the board. So again,

9:19

what markets need is stability and what

9:21

the best thing that Trump could do

9:24

is just come to the table and

9:26

say, look, I'm done messing around. This

9:28

is just what tariffs are and this

9:30

is how we're going to do it

9:32

and be done with it and then

9:34

shut up because that would allow the

9:37

markets to then adjust for what this

9:39

is. But you know, now you got

9:41

auto tariffs. Then next month you've got

9:43

auto parts tariffs tariffs tariffs coming in

9:45

May. you know, how do you price

9:47

all that stuff in? Oh, and then

9:49

if American automakers try to pass on

9:52

the tariff to consumers, then he's going

9:54

to do something to them. You know,

9:56

that just makes it impossible to value

9:58

markets and that's it. And then if

10:00

they retaliate, he'll retaliate even further. So,

10:02

you know, there's a, yeah, so I

10:04

guess where I was going with this

10:07

is, is, do you expect stability, more

10:09

predictability anytime soon? Or really, do we

10:11

just need to gird ourselves for, hey,

10:13

as best we know, we just got

10:15

to keep planning for curveballs every day?

10:17

I think you just got to keep

10:20

planning for curveballs every day. I think

10:22

you just got to keep planning for

10:24

curveballs. This was our article we wrote

10:26

back on January the 7th, called curbier.

10:28

And that's probably about the way this

10:30

is going to work out. We'll have

10:32

this correction. This correction will end. You're

10:35

going to get a rally back to

10:37

probably about where we were initially. And

10:39

then you're going to get another correction

10:41

because of some other issue with tariffs.

10:43

And then we're going to rally back

10:45

at the end of the year to

10:47

get back about where we were. So

10:50

again, I would just expect that that's

10:52

going to be the type of beer

10:54

that we're going to have and just

10:56

kind of gurgurge yourself for that type

10:58

of that type of volatility. coming after

11:00

two years of basically no volatility in

11:02

20% returns. And this is why investor

11:05

sentiment is so very negative right now,

11:07

is because it's like, it's been a

11:09

great two years. And, you know, now

11:11

the markets are down a little bit

11:13

and everybody's freaking out. But you just

11:15

banked 40% returns in two years. This

11:18

little bit of a pullback is just,

11:20

A, should be expected, B, it's completely

11:22

normal, but it's having an outsized effect

11:24

because... nobody's used to this type of

11:26

volatility and I think this is to

11:28

be somewhere stuck with all year and

11:30

I think by the end of this

11:33

year, sending it's going to be really

11:35

bad. So we'll see what happens. Well,

11:37

so this this goes to the heart

11:39

of what we've been talking about, you

11:41

know, for a good while, which is

11:43

given the environment that we saw ourselves

11:45

likely heading into, we talked about how

11:48

active management was going to become, you

11:50

know, much more essential to both just

11:52

preserving wealth, but also making gains. you

11:54

know, one of the nefarious parts about

11:56

this sort of false tranquility that, that,

11:58

you know, central planner, invention lends to

12:01

the markets where the passive trade wins

12:03

out and you just buy the dip

12:05

and just ride it is once that

12:07

ends, right, everybody who's been following

12:09

it kind of sleep walks off the

12:11

cliff, right? Your point, the reason why

12:13

one of the reasons why sentiment so

12:15

low is. It was easy, you just

12:17

turned the magic, you know, gains crank

12:20

and man, gains came out and it

12:22

was easy and how could it be

12:24

any easier than this? And why do

12:26

I need to work with an advisor?

12:28

Everybody else is stupid who's not doing

12:30

what I'm doing, right? And then all

12:32

of a sudden you keep turning the

12:34

crank and nothing's coming, turn it harder,

12:36

nothing's coming, right? You just, you

12:39

get that period where basically your

12:41

mind is still committed to the

12:43

old way of doing things. the

12:45

South Pacific Islands during World

12:47

War II where the Americans

12:50

arrived and for you know

12:52

a year or two the

12:54

economies of these local islands

12:56

just exploded you know thousands

12:58

fold right and then you

13:00

know the war was over

13:02

and the soldiers moved on and

13:04

the the natives were like well

13:06

wait a minute you know where are

13:08

good times here and so they would

13:11

like they would make like you know

13:13

their images of planes and boats out

13:15

of like bamboo as sort of like an

13:17

offering to the military gods like well if

13:19

we build these you'll come back and bring

13:21

all the food and all the stuff that

13:24

we like right and it seems like that's

13:26

what the market's doing right now. Hey I'm

13:28

still doing the same things I'm crossing my

13:30

fingers and believing in you know the magic

13:32

that just prices always go up but they're

13:34

not buying the dip but it's not working

13:36

for me right. So that's the real danger

13:38

here is you train people to an artificial

13:40

reality and then once real reality intervenes, you

13:43

know, they just walk straight into the meat

13:45

grinder. Yeah, no, and look, and that's just,

13:47

you know, and again, this kind of goes

13:49

back to, you know, kind of what I was

13:51

just saying a minute ago is that I think

13:53

this year is going to be the year that

13:55

again, look, I can be completely wrong. And, you

13:58

know, well, if I am, we'll change every. and

23:36

I don't know if you knew this,

23:39

but anyone can get the same premium

23:41

wireless for $15 a month plan that

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I've been enjoying. It's not just for

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celebrities, so do like I did, and

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have one of your assistance assistance to

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switch you to mid-Mobile today. I

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Copyright copyright copyright, copyright,

24:35

copyright. Copyright 2025. 5%.

28:02

When CPI is above 5% historically,

28:04

you get a recession. And when

28:06

you get unemployment above 8% that's

28:08

when you're in a recession,

28:10

typically, historically speaking. So you

28:13

just kind of use some long

28:15

term long term averages for this

28:17

stuff. So you see those two

28:19

spikes, 1973 and 1982. Those

28:21

were the two periods that

28:23

accounted for stagflation according to

28:25

that definite, the true definition

28:27

of stagflation. And those both related

28:29

to very short term these all

28:31

lasted about six months and those

28:33

were due to those exogenous

28:36

events of Iran revolution and of

28:38

course the the oil embargo. So

28:40

again, you know, we don't have

28:42

outside of that there's going back

28:44

to 1947 this chart only goes back

28:47

to 1960 but I ran it back

28:49

to 1947. There's never been a period

28:51

of stackflation in the U.S.

28:53

economy and there's not one

28:56

now. All right and so if those are the

28:58

defining characteristics I mean things would have to

29:00

change a lot from where they are right

29:02

now to get into stagflation right right and

29:04

they just don't have the drivers for it.

29:06

So so if we just go back to

29:08

the very basics of how and this is

29:11

why I appreciate Steve Hanke and his work

29:13

because he just uses economics and economics is

29:15

very simple to understand once you just

29:17

dig into it a little bit think about

29:19

it. The whole economy runs on supply

29:22

and demand. 70% of GDP is personal

29:24

consumption. It's what you and I are

29:26

doing every day in the environment, right?

29:28

We're going out, we're buying groceries,

29:31

we're buying gas, we're doing those things.

29:33

That's what generates the revenues for

29:35

companies, that's what creates economic growth.

29:37

When they get earned, they get

29:39

revenue coming in, they have a

29:41

lot more revenue coming in and a

29:43

lot of demand for whatever product they're

29:45

making. Well, I've got to make

29:48

more product. If there's a lot of

29:50

demand for hiring, then I've got to

29:52

increase wages to hire employees because otherwise

29:54

they'll get a job in another company

29:56

that's willing to pay more. And so it's

29:58

this virtual cycle of the. economy. So

30:00

if you get the reversal, you know,

30:03

for everybody that's hoping we're going to

30:05

get a recession, which I really don't

30:07

understand why people kind of root for

30:10

a recession, but you know that that's

30:12

on you. But you root for a

30:14

recession, that's on you. But you root

30:16

for a recession, that's great. But if

30:19

the economy is slowing down, people are

30:21

spending less, that's less demand, which means

30:23

I start laying off people, and if

30:26

there's less demand, and I've got to

30:28

sell some product, So the only way

30:30

you're going to get stagflation in this

30:33

environment where we are, and this is

30:35

why you don't, you don't have stagflation

30:37

historically because when you get a recession,

30:39

you get deflation or this inflation at

30:42

least. Prices are going to come down

30:44

just because of the way economics work,

30:46

supply and demand. So you've got to

30:49

have some exogenous shock that comes through

30:51

the system that simply shuts off a

30:53

supply of a product. And again, no,

30:55

the oil embargo couldn't get oil, right.

30:58

And so. all of a sudden we

31:00

had this massive surge in oil prices.

31:02

I grew up and if you grew

31:05

up in that period like I did,

31:07

I remember waiting in line with my

31:09

dad at the gas station to buy

31:12

gas for a quarter, right? You know,

31:14

a quarter a gallon is great. You

31:16

know, my dad was one of the

31:18

first guys to put a propane paint

31:21

in the back of his pickup truck

31:23

was this 1967 Dodge pickup truck stepside,

31:25

you put this propane paint in the

31:28

back to avoid the gas prices, driving

31:30

around with a big bomb. Three months

31:32

later, it was useless, right? Yeah. So,

31:34

I mean, that was a mobile bomb.

31:37

It was great. But, you know, that's,

31:39

so again, you just go back to

31:41

the very basics of how the economy

31:44

works. It's pretty easy to figure out

31:46

where things are based on the data.

31:48

And the data doesn't suggest higher inflation,

31:51

it all suggests we're going to have

31:53

a more disinflationary trend over the next

31:55

couple of years. Okay, and just to

31:57

be clear, and you've already mentioned this

32:00

in several dimensions, but just the fear

32:02

that many people have that I also

32:04

agree is being written a lot in

32:07

the media is tariffs essentially mean constrict.

32:09

supply or you know the higher prices

32:11

and that's going to be the stag,

32:13

sorry that's going to be the flation

32:16

part of stagflation. Well not really again

32:18

you go back to. No I know

32:20

it elaborate but that's that's that's the

32:23

narrative play. Yeah right right but again

32:25

we go back to just basic just

32:27

talk about you and me as person

32:30

as people right if so they're going

32:32

to put tariffs on automobiles right so

32:34

first of all. I already have a

32:36

car, so I don't need to buy

32:39

a new one. Maybe I was planning

32:41

on buying a new car, but I'm

32:43

not now. I'll just keep the one

32:46

I've got because it's paid off. Right.

32:48

And just to be super clear, you

32:50

know, Trump is saying, I'm not putting

32:52

it on U.S. cars. So the thought

32:55

there is, oh, you'll substitute. You won't

32:57

buy the foreign car, you'll buy American.

32:59

Now that being said, there's lots of

33:02

components that go into American cars that

33:04

go into American cars that will be

33:06

more expensive. And absolutely and in you

33:09

know again and can I afford an

33:11

American car that's the other the other

33:13

issue. But again and there's going to

33:15

be tariffs on parts coming in May

33:18

right so he's you know and this

33:20

and see this is where it gets

33:22

really convoluted because if you take a

33:25

look at a Ford yeah it's built

33:27

in America be used a lot of

33:29

foreign parts. So again the tariffs are

33:31

not going to be immune to just

33:34

US automakers aren't going to be immune

33:36

to tariffs and then. you know, Trump

33:38

says, okay, well, if you try to

33:41

pass on the tariff to consumers, then,

33:43

you know, wow, we're going to, you

33:45

know, we're going to, you know, we're

33:48

going to do something to you if

33:50

you do that. And this, this doesn't

33:52

work out well. But back to the

33:54

very basics of economics, if something goes

33:57

up in price, either I'll find something

33:59

cheaper or I just won't buy it.

34:01

and people aren't buying cars, then I'm

34:04

gonna have to cut prices. It's going

34:06

to eat into my profit margin at

34:08

some point. is is the question about

34:10

the inflation part of inflation is can

34:13

I pass the tariff on if I

34:15

can't pass the tariff I have to

34:17

eat it remember the only people that

34:20

pay tariffs are producers they're the only

34:22

people that pay the tariffs and the

34:24

question becomes whether or not I can

34:27

pass that tariff on to consumers if

34:29

I can't pass it on there is

34:31

no inflation. So let me ask this

34:33

then because you said a few minutes

34:36

ago that We're having record corporate profits,

34:38

which you would think then you would

34:40

say, okay, well, then actually producers probably

34:43

should be able to absorb a fair

34:45

amount of tariffs because they're more flush

34:47

than they've ever been. That's right. Yeah,

34:49

yeah, and no, corporate profits are doing

34:52

great. And again, we're seeing this in

34:54

the data as well. I mean, you

34:56

know, this is, I keep reading these

34:59

articles and we've had these conversations, but

35:01

I just read an article this morning,

35:03

talking about how by 2040. I believe

35:06

the number was 2035, 2040 that basically

35:08

all but about 10% of jobs in

35:10

America will be able to be replicated

35:12

by AI. So what are you going

35:15

to do for a living? You know,

35:17

and so but that's all huge increases.

35:19

The implementation of AI into businesses, which

35:22

businesses are going to are ramping this

35:24

up rapidly, is is going to have

35:26

a dramatic impact on corporate profitability going

35:28

for because again, if I can reduce

35:31

labor through AI. That makes me a

35:33

lot more profitable. If I can produce

35:35

my product using no human labor, I'm

35:38

in good shape. Yeah, we've talked about

35:40

this. We said, you know, there's no,

35:42

there's no force greater in commerce and

35:45

capitalism than. you know, corporations desire to

35:47

replace human capital if it can, because

35:49

you get rid of all the costs

35:51

and headaches and messy human factors and

35:54

lawsuit potentials and OSHA oversight and all

35:56

that stuff, right? So I think I

35:58

told you I was talking with Darius

36:01

Dale at our conference and he put

36:03

up this chart as multi-decadle chart and

36:05

it was basically showing the historic patterns

36:07

where either capital was in the driver's

36:10

seat or labor was in the driver's

36:12

seat, and obviously in recent decades, capital

36:14

has really held the whip hand over

36:17

labor. And, you know, Darius was basically

36:19

saying we're at an inflection point now

36:21

where, you know, labor may be, the

36:24

pendulum might be swinging back to labor

36:26

a little bit, and part of this

36:28

is sort of, you know, the election

36:30

of Trump and prioritizing Main Street over

36:33

Wall Street and all that stuff, right.

36:35

But then we talked about the potential

36:37

for a recession and I said, you

36:40

know, I asked him, I said, hey,

36:42

you know, like, what is, what does

36:44

the future of employment look like in

36:46

the age of AI? And he had

36:49

this big sign, he said, that's the

36:51

one thing that keeps me up at

36:53

night. He's like, I'm really afraid the

36:56

next big recession, a lot of those

36:58

jobs won't come back. And he said,

37:00

look, if we look at this chart,

37:03

I put up, these are historical historical

37:05

cycles, and it, and it looks like

37:07

right inflection point, and it like right

37:09

inflection point, you know capital's advantage should

37:12

start coming down and labor should start

37:14

coming up but he's like given AI

37:16

my fear is that we could actually

37:19

just see the capital one just shoot

37:21

the moon now where literally it just

37:23

doesn't need labor anymore and it gets

37:25

you know to become ferociously profitable by

37:28

employing fewer and fewer people and he's

37:30

just like. You know, that's great for

37:32

companies. I think it's probably leads to

37:35

Lord of the Flies at some point.

37:37

He didn't use those terms. I'm extrapolating.

37:39

But you know, it's, it's, it is

37:42

a big unknown. We'll put it that

37:44

way. Yeah. No, look, and this is,

37:46

this has got huge implications for investing

37:48

as well. I mean, you know, if

37:51

you take a look at the stock

37:53

market today, you know, we've gone from

37:55

8,000 companies at the other's, we're talking

37:58

about. non peak sheet companies right. But

38:00

we've gone from 8,000 to 4,000 companies

38:02

in the US are publicly traded equities

38:04

in the US and with the adoption

38:07

of AI about, you know, So probably

38:09

in the next 10 to 15 years,

38:11

probably only about 10 to 15% of

38:14

all those companies are going to have

38:16

successfully adopted AI to a degree where

38:18

their businesses are operating extremely profitably and

38:21

they're going to basically absorb a lot

38:23

of this. So you know, to see

38:25

in the future the number of companies

38:27

shrink in the index from 4,000 to,

38:30

you know, 1,500 to 2,000. wouldn't be

38:32

wouldn't really that be all that surprising,

38:34

just as AI just starts trying to,

38:37

you know, just basically starts eliminating the

38:39

need for a lot of these companies

38:41

to actually be publicly. So again, you

38:43

know, we'll see how this works out,

38:46

but the, you know, the trend of

38:48

where we're headed, you know, employment wise

38:50

and productivity wise, etc. It doesn't, it's

38:53

not on a trajectory that's going to

38:55

cure that 90% of the market being

38:57

owned by the top 10% of income

39:00

top 10 owned by or top 90

39:02

plus percent owned by the top 1%

39:04

2% yeah unfortunately yeah well we could

39:06

get distraction on this for the whole

39:09

rest of this conversation every other one

39:11

we have but but back to my

39:13

point of been making you know there

39:16

is a real concern that America is

39:18

switching into or maybe already has into

39:20

an aristocracy from a meritocracy but hopefully

39:23

Hopefully we're able to retard that

39:25

going forward, but I don't know.

39:27

It's a big question. All right,

39:29

so a lot of other things

39:31

we want to dig through with

39:33

you in here, Lance. All right,

39:35

well, look, we talked about how

39:38

the market's on its heels right

39:40

now just because there's just so

39:42

much unpredictability, right? The situation's just

39:44

changing on a daily basis, hourly

39:46

basis sometimes. So I want to

39:48

put two. Two big questions to

39:50

you and I guess the first

39:52

one is is. Here's the question.

39:54

How is all this disruption not

39:56

going to lead to a recession

39:58

or to a deeper market correction

40:00

from here, right? And one of

40:02

the questions being raised is, you

40:04

know, we have all these curveballs

40:06

as we mentioned coming in. You

40:08

know, I understand I've actually been

40:10

listening to the new administration's economic

40:12

team pretty closely. And one of

40:14

the benefits of that team is

40:16

they're in front of the cameras

40:18

all the time. So, you know,

40:20

to the extent they're sharing what

40:22

they're actually thinking, we have a

40:24

pretty good real-time sense of what

40:26

they're trying to do. So, you

40:28

know, are we, are we just

40:30

having the hard conversations with our

40:32

allies and saying, look, I love

40:34

you, I want to, this relationship

40:37

is important to me, but it's,

40:39

it's a given take, and I

40:41

feel like I've been given way

40:43

more than you've been taking, and

40:45

are we just right sizing these

40:47

relationships and going through the necessary

40:49

awkward couples couples therapy? Or, you

40:51

know, are we burning our alliances

40:53

here? And I think you can

40:55

have a debate on both sides

40:57

of this, right? My point is,

40:59

is it's just a tremendous amount

41:01

of uncertainty here, and it's unlikely

41:03

to get tidied up, you know,

41:05

anytime really soon. So you're going

41:07

to have this increased, you know,

41:09

uncertainty, and probably a lot of

41:11

cases increased concern that, oh my

41:13

God, this guy just retaliated, and

41:15

that guy just retaliated. Make the

41:17

case that that doesn't actually create

41:19

so much uncertainty that, you know,

41:21

markets don't sell off further, negative

41:23

wealth effect begins to kick in,

41:25

companies tighten, people tighten, spending titans,

41:27

and then the whole thing just

41:29

keeps building on itself. I can't

41:31

make the case, that's not gonna

41:33

be the case, because it absolutely

41:36

could. You know, again, that's, that's,

41:38

you know, The economy is slowing

41:40

down there's like I said earlier

41:42

there's no sign of a recession

41:44

yet right I mean the day

41:46

we're all working on lagging data

41:48

unfortunately but you know the data

41:50

is not suggestive personally coming spending

41:52

today except that's like. that was

41:54

from last month. So, you know,

41:56

we're, you know, right now, it's

41:58

certainly showing signs of slowing down,

42:00

but it's not recessioner, but that

42:02

doesn't mean it can't change. And,

42:04

you know, if consumer sentiments continues

42:06

to reverse like it has been,

42:08

we start getting a contraction in

42:10

spending, which is very possible. You

42:12

take a look at what's happening

42:14

with the consumers across the board,

42:16

that that risk is not outsized

42:18

at all. Um, that, you know,

42:20

we could see a contraction spending

42:22

if you have a contraction spending,

42:24

you're going to have a contraction

42:26

in the economy. So, you know,

42:28

there, there is, you know, the,

42:30

the risk of a recession is

42:32

not zero. I wrote about that,

42:35

or back in January, February, this

42:37

year, I said, I wrote an

42:39

article, that, that, that case that

42:41

we made then is still very

42:43

valid, if not more valid, now,

42:45

because the more of a correction

42:47

you get in the markets. Again,

42:49

consumers are sensitive to that, even

42:51

though they may not have a

42:53

ton of money invested in the

42:55

markets in their 401k planet work

42:57

or whatever it is, which isn't,

42:59

it's only about 25% of employees.

43:01

But those people see that and

43:03

they go, man, I'm losing money

43:05

over there and I'm concerned about

43:07

my job potentially, maybe or may

43:09

not have one. You know, I'm

43:11

maybe cut back on spending. And

43:13

again, if I cut back on

43:15

spending, then. That's going to start

43:17

to weigh on earnings for companies.

43:19

You're going to see more companies

43:21

like Walmart and Target and Costco

43:23

and these other companies have come

43:25

out recently. The retailers just all

43:27

reported and they were all saying

43:29

the same thing. Consumer demand is

43:31

slowing down. We're starting to see

43:34

weakness in some lines of our

43:36

products. You know, we're seeing a

43:38

slowdown in traffic, you know, online

43:40

shopping as, as, you know, been

43:42

stagnant or whatever. So we've seen

43:44

a lot of those concerns coming

43:46

from retailers and that's certainly not

43:48

something that you should just. gloss

43:50

over and not pay attention to

43:52

because yes, you know, the markets

43:54

aren't going to go straight down,

43:56

right? And this is this is

43:58

the big thing about about corrections

44:00

and ultimately bare markets. They don't

44:02

happen all at once unless you

44:04

have some type of financial event,

44:06

right? You got to have a

44:08

Lehman moment or you got to

44:10

have a shutdown of the economy.

44:12

But it doesn't mean that by

44:14

the end of this year, by

44:16

the time we get into August,

44:18

we're not down 20% on the

44:20

markets in total, in the markets,

44:22

in total, you know, from the

44:24

peak, but somewhere in there you

44:26

have a rally, and then, you

44:28

know, then you're going to get

44:30

some more selling as more concerns

44:33

and more negative, and more negative,

44:35

to work yourself out of your

44:37

positions, you know, reposition your portfolio,

44:39

etc. But yeah, there's certainly the

44:41

risk of recession is certainly not

44:43

zero. It's turnie time. And with

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location while supplies last. Yeah.

54:04

Right, right. And so again, that number

54:07

is probably gonna, I'm not, look, I'm

54:09

not saying it is, but I'm just

54:11

saying that probably the deficit is not

54:13

going to wind up looking like that

54:15

by the time that we get further into

54:18

this year, once we start collecting revenue,

54:20

we'll see. We'll see. We'll see. I

54:22

hope you're right. But just on an

54:24

apples to apples first couple months of

54:26

the first couple months of the fiscal

54:29

year. Okay. All right. Well, this

54:31

is sort of similar. That's

54:33

another one. That's it. This

54:35

one. I'm so glad you brought

54:37

this up because this is my

54:39

biggest pet peeve on the planet.

54:41

The CBO is never right. They're

54:44

never right. In 2000, in

54:46

2000, they predicted that by

54:48

2010, we'd be running a

54:50

trillion dollar surplus. We ran a

54:53

trillion dollar deficit. They're only

54:55

off by two trillion dollars. They're

54:57

off, but they're off by, are

54:59

they off by being too optimistic

55:01

or too pessimistic? They're, they're

55:03

just, they're all there. See, this is

55:05

the, the problem, I just said, you

55:07

know, I'm not a fan of

55:10

extrapolation. And this is all that CBO

55:12

does. That line, that projected line is

55:14

an extrapolation based on current events.

55:16

And it's suggesting that nothing's ever

55:19

going to change in the future.

55:21

And things are going to change

55:23

all the time. That death is the percentage

55:25

of debt to GDP maybe higher than that it

55:27

could be a lot lower if we start getting

55:29

into a period of time where we have really

55:32

strong economic growth. Let's just say all these policies

55:34

that Trump has put into place leads to really

55:36

strong economic growth like he's hoping. Well, all

55:38

of a sudden your debt GDP level

55:40

comes back down because you've got stronger

55:42

economic growth and you've got debt issues.

55:44

You're also collecting revenue, which means you

55:46

have to issue as much debt. So the problem

55:49

with always extrapolating this this is the

55:51

problem with housing sales and everything else

55:53

we take a number and we say

55:55

if this is the number and we're gonna

55:57

get that every month for the next 12

55:59

months. or next 10 years, whatever it

56:01

is, that's where we're gonna be. It's like,

56:03

oh my gosh, that's great or it's terrible,

56:06

or whatever it is. Life doesn't, the

56:08

economy doesn't work that way. So extrapolating

56:10

is the worst way to make projections.

56:12

Well, but you, look, when you gotta

56:15

make projections, right, you can't just

56:17

close your eyes in the future,

56:19

gonna take a guess, these people

56:21

get paid to take a guess.

56:23

Obviously, they're not going to nail

56:25

it. And to your point, their

56:27

previous forecasts have been in general

56:29

quite under where these numbers have

56:32

been, at least in terms of

56:34

debt levels and debt to GDP.

56:36

So here's the quote here. Where

56:38

it gets really scary is the

56:40

CBO is updated, which arguably the

56:42

scariest chart in the world, that

56:44

of U.S. public debt, which is

56:46

now seen rising alarmingly to 156

56:48

percent of GDP in 2055. Who

56:51

knows what the future is going

56:53

to bring, but what this is

56:55

basically saying is, is, you know,

56:57

looking at the current debt trends

56:59

and whatnot, deficit spending, this number

57:01

just gets bonkers. The further we

57:03

go on here, and they know that

57:05

AI is coming, right? They know that

57:07

Doge is underway. They know that the

57:10

Trump, you know, they have a sense

57:12

of what Trump's policies are. I don't

57:14

know how much they impact the model,

57:16

but clearly they're not impacting this much

57:18

at all. But even if they weren't

57:21

in here, this really says why we

57:23

need to do something, right? Because if

57:25

we don't, we're just buried under

57:27

debt. No, that's the whole point

57:29

is that, like for instance, look,

57:31

in 2000, right, so there's the

57:33

2000, 2009 financial prices, right? So

57:35

go back to 2005. In 2005,

57:37

we were running about 25% of

57:40

debt to GDP. And the CBO said

57:42

in 10 years, we'll be running

57:44

a trillion dollar surplus. Well, they

57:47

never predicted the financial

57:49

crisis. They didn't predict

57:51

the coronavirus pandemic, but what

57:54

but take a look at

57:56

their data. They're taking the

57:58

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1:35:17

not going to work for you, right?

1:35:19

You've got to have the process. You

1:35:21

have to follow it whether you agree

1:35:23

with it or not. Yep. All right.

1:35:25

Well, look, you know, if you are

1:35:27

a, you know, DIY investor and you

1:35:29

were doing great during the passive era,

1:35:31

when, you know, whatever you were doing,

1:35:33

work great, but what you were doing.

1:35:35

Now when you do it isn't working,

1:35:37

maybe it means you need a new

1:35:39

process. And so either construct one of

1:35:41

your own or if you don't have

1:35:43

a clear idea how to do that,

1:35:45

leverage somebody else's process here. All right,

1:35:48

Lance, we're gonna wrap it up here,

1:35:50

get close to wrapping it up. I

1:35:52

do want to try to squeeze in

1:35:54

the rant from last week that we

1:35:56

didn't get a chance to do real

1:35:58

quick trades. What trades, if any, have

1:36:00

you guys made over the past week?

1:36:02

We are very close to instituting a

1:36:04

short position in the portfolio to hedge

1:36:06

the portfolio that may or may not

1:36:08

occur. We're waiting really to kind of

1:36:10

get through Monday to get through into

1:36:12

the quarter rebalancing, see what the market

1:36:14

does. And then of course we've got

1:36:16

that April 2nd, you know, kind of

1:36:18

liberation, so we've got some stuff kind

1:36:20

of potentially that could once we kind

1:36:22

of get past it, if the world

1:36:24

doesn't blow up, this market could rally

1:36:27

pretty strongly. So I don't want to

1:36:29

be short the market. in that type

1:36:31

of environment. So I'm really kind of

1:36:33

looking for some confirmation here. We may

1:36:35

be getting in on Friday again, you

1:36:37

know, markets are down pretty decently on

1:36:39

Friday, but again, that could reverse on

1:36:41

Monday. So again, just we'll talk about

1:36:43

this next week, but I mean, we

1:36:45

are potentially getting close to hedging and

1:36:47

reduce starting to reduce some risk in

1:36:49

the portfolio and then, you know, depending

1:36:51

on how things go, we could get

1:36:53

more aggressive about that in the next

1:36:55

month or two. Okay, so thinking about

1:36:57

putting a short on interestingly there just

1:36:59

you said this earlier and I forgot

1:37:01

to mention it We're still in a

1:37:04

buy signal, right? Yes. Okay, still in

1:37:06

a buy signal, but it could get

1:37:08

invalidated and certainly the way the markets

1:37:10

are going as we've been talking here

1:37:12

on Friday That could happen. You're beginning

1:37:14

to think about taking on a short.

1:37:16

You're not yet thinking about making a

1:37:18

big change in the portfolio, right where

1:37:20

you you basically You know,

1:37:22

you have your 25% increments where

1:37:24

you're like, okay, we're going to

1:37:26

cash with 25% you're not, you're

1:37:28

not considering that yet. We're not

1:37:30

there yet. You know, that signal's

1:37:32

got a good ways to go.

1:37:34

So you're gonna need a lot

1:37:36

more shop and grind to the

1:37:38

market to get there. And I

1:37:40

think there's, there is a potential

1:37:42

that we could see that this

1:37:44

summer. But, but again, over the

1:37:46

course of the, right now, there's,

1:37:48

you know, the markets are still

1:37:50

decently oversold. You know, we're on

1:37:52

a buy signal money flows are

1:37:54

positive. Yeah, the market's really struggling

1:37:56

here, but we're seeing some buying

1:37:58

coming in under the surface. So

1:38:00

I don't want to negate that

1:38:02

too much. I don't want to

1:38:05

ignore that. But if this market

1:38:07

can't get on its feet, then

1:38:09

we're going to start getting a

1:38:11

little bit more defensive here near

1:38:13

term. So again, just, you know,

1:38:15

we're trying to, this is one

1:38:17

of those times where we're trying

1:38:19

to just navigate very, very choppy

1:38:21

waters. Yeah. And we really have

1:38:23

to rely on your T. A.

1:38:25

Indicators here. You put up a

1:38:27

chart. Maybe last week. showing that

1:38:29

one of the reasons why you

1:38:31

were sort of expecting the market

1:38:33

to reach a tradable bottom was

1:38:35

that as the market was going

1:38:37

down retail buying was was growing

1:38:39

right was more robust is that

1:38:41

continuing or is retail buying continue

1:38:43

to start in the cool off

1:38:45

here it cooled off a little

1:38:47

this last week and that's kind

1:38:49

of not surprising but there's still

1:38:51

kind of there is still buying

1:38:53

coming into the market And again,

1:38:55

we kind of saw this yesterday,

1:38:57

even on Thursday, even though there

1:38:59

was a lot of kind of

1:39:01

pressure on the market, there was

1:39:03

a lot of buying intred day.

1:39:05

We saw, you know, the market

1:39:07

would decline and see a pretty

1:39:09

strong kind of, you know, strip

1:39:11

of buying. And we've seen some

1:39:13

buying coming in right towards the

1:39:15

end of the day, which is

1:39:17

kind of more, it tends to

1:39:19

be more institutional. So again, there's,

1:39:21

you know, we're still seeing some

1:39:23

positive buying pressure pressure here. And

1:39:25

the volume on the declines has

1:39:27

been a little bit weaker. We're

1:39:29

not seeing big surges in volume

1:39:31

on the sell-off days. So, so

1:39:34

again, that's a little bit encouraging,

1:39:36

that's kind of, you know, hanging

1:39:38

on to straws. You know, again,

1:39:40

so again, we have to pay

1:39:42

attention to the bigger risk, which

1:39:44

is, you know, again, so again,

1:39:46

we have to pay attention to

1:39:48

the bigger risk profile, which is

1:39:50

the bigger risk profile out there,

1:39:52

which is, This may be turning

1:39:54

into a little bit longer consolidation

1:39:56

process, which again, it's not going

1:39:58

to be fun. Okay. All right.

1:40:00

Well, look, as we as we

1:40:02

wrap up here, If you remember,

1:40:04

I introduced you as the exigent

1:40:06

Lance Roberts at the start here

1:40:08

and exigency, just to remind folks

1:40:10

that's driven by a purposeful urgency.

1:40:12

I actually love that word. It

1:40:14

just means that you're, you know,

1:40:16

you're really driven to just get

1:40:18

stuff done. And I think I

1:40:20

asked you this question last week

1:40:22

when we'd turn the, turn the

1:40:24

cameras off and I was telling

1:40:26

you about the rant I was

1:40:28

hoping to get to. I think

1:40:30

I had asked you, you know,

1:40:32

you know, you know, How long

1:40:34

do you think that the U.S.

1:40:36

was in World War II? Do

1:40:38

you remember the answer? Do I

1:40:40

think the U.S. was in World

1:40:42

War II? Yeah. Well, December 7th,

1:40:44

1941 to 1945. Yeah, yeah. So

1:40:46

actually, from beginning to end, officially,

1:40:48

less than four years. Right. And

1:40:50

it's amazing when you see all

1:40:52

the innovation. that happened during the

1:40:54

war, but certainly that came out

1:40:56

of the war, that just transformed

1:40:58

society, right? Radar, jet engines, computers,

1:41:00

eventually the internet, synthetic rubber, rockets,

1:41:03

helicopters, microwaves, the atomic bomb, modern

1:41:05

communications, cell phones, et cetera, right?

1:41:07

Just to name a few of

1:41:09

them, right? All of that innovation

1:41:11

was packed in just to, you

1:41:13

know, less than four years, less

1:41:15

than a single college. Time frame.

1:41:17

Well, part of that came during

1:41:19

the space race, like cell phones,

1:41:21

microwaves, a lot of that communication,

1:41:23

that came during the space race

1:41:25

in the 60s. They had mobile

1:41:27

phone using during World War II.

1:41:29

Sorry. They had, I don't know

1:41:31

if they're radio, but they had

1:41:33

mobile phone units during World War

1:41:35

II. Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, I'm

1:41:37

saying, but a lot, but a

1:41:39

lot of the stuff you just

1:41:41

named also was also generated during

1:41:43

the space. A lot of it

1:41:45

came out of World War II.

1:41:47

But then a lot of it

1:41:49

was really innovative and expanded on

1:41:51

during the space race. I mean,

1:41:53

no sure. Absolutely. Yeah, but the

1:41:55

point is that the point you're

1:41:57

making is is that both of

1:41:59

those periods were extreme. dream drivers

1:42:01

of innovation over a specific goal

1:42:03

where we united the

1:42:05

whole country in a specific

1:42:08

agenda? Absolutely. And my

1:42:10

point is, is we were able

1:42:13

to make, accomplish a tremendous amount

1:42:15

way more than anybody could

1:42:17

have imagined in a

1:42:19

shockingly short period of time.

1:42:21

Right. And, you know, the lesson I

1:42:23

want us to take from this is

1:42:25

what is possible. So, you know, we

1:42:27

talked about a lot of reasons to

1:42:29

be concerned about where things are headed

1:42:31

in the future and I'm trying to

1:42:33

end here on a more positive note.

1:42:36

And look, societyally, it certainly can happen

1:42:38

again because it's happened before. We have

1:42:40

these proof points, right? And I think

1:42:42

and I'm not making a partisan comment

1:42:44

here. I have no idea if they're

1:42:46

going to be successful or not, but

1:42:48

I think that's part of the spirit

1:42:50

of the new administration. They certainly seem

1:42:52

to be having some exigency about, hey,

1:42:54

we want to make a lot of

1:42:56

progress in a very short period of

1:42:58

time. And they've got a lot of

1:43:01

bold economic goals. We'll see if they

1:43:03

are able to achieve those in a

1:43:05

lot of ways, we're crossing our fingers

1:43:07

because we looked at those debt charts,

1:43:09

right, of what could happen if we

1:43:11

don't make big changes. But I mean,

1:43:13

I will say, again, not making a

1:43:15

partisan endorsement here, but. There's been some

1:43:18

really impressive progress in a very short

1:43:20

period of time. I think the administration's

1:43:22

less than two months old still,

1:43:24

right? And if you look at things

1:43:26

like, you know, border, right, border security

1:43:29

is big, right? So what, it's been

1:43:31

a 96% decrease in border encounters.

1:43:33

They have, I think I heard

1:43:36

since the new administration took over,

1:43:38

they've captured. three of the FBI's

1:43:40

top 10 most wanted. Three folks

1:43:43

are off that top 10 list.

1:43:45

And I think it's been like

1:43:47

five years prior, they captured zero,

1:43:49

right? Yesterday, they just captured the

1:43:52

head of the East Coast, the

1:43:54

head of MS-13, you know, a

1:43:57

big foreign gang operating here in

1:43:59

the US. So. you know, they're putting wins

1:44:01

on the board on the things

1:44:03

that they care about, right? So

1:44:05

they're just showing, hey, if we

1:44:07

focus, right, and a lot of

1:44:09

this is cross-discipline task forces that

1:44:11

hadn't been assembled before, it's just

1:44:13

a proof point that say, hey,

1:44:15

if we come up with a

1:44:17

priority and we all make it

1:44:19

a big goal and we all

1:44:21

focus on it, we can actually

1:44:23

get stuff done pretty quickly. One

1:44:25

of the things that they're trying

1:44:27

to do to do to, you

1:44:29

know, you know, boost the economy,

1:44:32

and bring a lot of capital

1:44:34

into the U. is, you know,

1:44:36

yes, tariffs, but also using them

1:44:38

to get companies to commit to

1:44:40

making investments for capital investment here

1:44:42

in the US. And I've got

1:44:44

a quick list. This isn't even

1:44:46

a comprehensive list, but let me

1:44:48

just read it to you real

1:44:50

quick, Lance. Bear with me one

1:44:52

second. Okay, so it's companies and

1:44:54

countries that have, you know, committed

1:44:56

pretty substantial amounts of capital here.

1:44:58

So you've had United Arab Emirates.

1:45:00

commit $1.4 trillion. Saudi Arabia, $600

1:45:02

billion, Apple, $500 billion, invidia, $100

1:45:04

billion, Taiwan semiconductor, $100 billion, Johnson

1:45:06

and Johnson, $55 billion, and then

1:45:08

a bunch more, you know, anywhere

1:45:10

between a couple billion to, you

1:45:12

know, 27 billion or whatever, Eli

1:45:14

Lilies, Hyundai, Merck, GE. Again. Who

1:45:16

knows what's going to happen with

1:45:18

all that, but that's a lot

1:45:20

of company, a lot of capital

1:45:22

and a lot of entities that

1:45:24

have lined up to say, yeah,

1:45:26

you know, we're going to start

1:45:28

pumping a lot more money in

1:45:30

here than we were before. So

1:45:32

look, where I'm going with this

1:45:34

is look, who knows if the

1:45:37

new administration's going to be successful

1:45:39

with this stuff? I wish them

1:45:41

well. We need that big, you

1:45:43

know, you know, changes in terms

1:45:45

of curtailing our spending and increasing

1:45:47

our scale. can win us a

1:45:49

world war, can get us to

1:45:51

the moon. If I take a

1:45:53

little bit of that goodness and

1:45:55

apply to my own life, what

1:45:57

am I able to do? Right?

1:45:59

And I guess just the idea

1:46:01

I want to put in people's

1:46:03

heads is you are likely able

1:46:05

to accomplish way more in the

1:46:07

next couple years that you imagine

1:46:09

as possible right now. So, you

1:46:11

know, in terms of homework, last

1:46:13

week's homework was from Lance was

1:46:15

to go and try to write

1:46:17

your own personal investing statement. And

1:46:19

if you couldn't, then figure out

1:46:21

how you're going to, you know,

1:46:23

find somebody whose statement you could

1:46:25

leverage. I think my homework for

1:46:27

you this week is just to...

1:46:29

Just to lean back and dream

1:46:31

for a little bit about like,

1:46:33

you know, what are the things

1:46:35

that I would love to transform

1:46:37

about my life? What are the

1:46:39

force multipliers that I'd like to

1:46:42

apply to my life? And just

1:46:44

just dream big, you know, don't

1:46:46

put any limits on it for

1:46:48

a moment. And then pick a

1:46:50

couple of those dreams and say,

1:46:52

well, okay, what would it actually

1:46:54

really take to get that done?

1:46:56

And, you know, I... Pick several

1:46:58

things, right? Career-wise, skills you'd like

1:47:00

to learn, health improvements you'd like

1:47:02

to have, life experiences you'd like

1:47:04

to enjoy, new relationships you'd like

1:47:06

to build, you know, whatever it

1:47:08

is that's most important to you.

1:47:10

But if you pick two or

1:47:12

three and, you know, put a

1:47:14

big bold stake in the ground,

1:47:16

you know, chances are, you know,

1:47:18

if you're really serious about it,

1:47:20

you're going to be able to

1:47:22

inject a lot of that good

1:47:24

transformative goodness into your life. you're

1:47:26

going to miss 100% of the

1:47:28

shots you don't take. So Lance,

1:47:30

you're a gentleman who I think

1:47:32

in general in life sort of

1:47:34

exemplifies exigency. So I'm sure you've

1:47:36

got a couple of opinions on

1:47:38

this. Yeah, well, no, I mean,

1:47:40

it's, you know, I was sitting

1:47:42

there thinking what you were talking

1:47:44

about, you know, what the current

1:47:47

administration's doing, and I was just

1:47:49

thinking it's like, you know

1:47:51

with the power of AI and everything

1:47:53

that we have in our country today

1:47:55

and you know if we could all

1:47:57

come together and just come to a

1:47:59

common agenda and say okay our agenda.

1:48:01

is we're going to solve homelessness, we're

1:48:03

going to cure cancer, and we're going

1:48:05

to, you know, increase the economic productivity

1:48:07

of the average American, right? And just

1:48:09

try to fix this wealth gap. You

1:48:11

know, if we all actually all, if

1:48:13

we could all come together and focus

1:48:15

on the reduce the debts and the

1:48:17

deficits, right? We could even work on

1:48:19

that. But with the power of AI

1:48:21

and everything else that we've got in

1:48:23

our fingertips, you know, It would be

1:48:25

astounding as to what we could actually

1:48:27

probably accomplish and create within the country

1:48:29

if we just would say look forget

1:48:31

everybody else right. We're just going to

1:48:33

focus all of our efforts on making

1:48:35

America, you know, the best it can

1:48:37

possibly be the shining beacon on the

1:48:39

hill, whatever you want to be with

1:48:41

all the technology and all the power

1:48:43

of smart people and companies that we've

1:48:45

got here. It's a it's you know,

1:48:47

what we can create would be absolutely

1:48:49

amazing, right? But we just can't get

1:48:51

on the same page. Everybody's just fighting

1:48:53

for the sake of fighting is like,

1:48:56

I just don't want to agree with

1:48:58

Trump because I don't like him. So

1:49:00

I'm not going to agree. All of

1:49:02

his policies are bad just because he's

1:49:04

I don't like him. You know, vice

1:49:06

versa. You know, we're not going to

1:49:08

agree with anything. And it's unfortunate, but

1:49:10

that's why we can't do anything, right?

1:49:12

It's just, and we stay stuck in

1:49:14

this kind of mill, but. It's the

1:49:16

old Congo cartoon, we've met the enemy

1:49:18

and he is us, right? We're just,

1:49:20

we're our own worst obstacle here, yeah.

1:49:22

Yeah, exactly. And it's a shame. But,

1:49:24

you know, speaking about us, you know,

1:49:26

just individually, as people, you know, this

1:49:28

is why it's so important and we've

1:49:30

talked about this before is that, you

1:49:32

know, you know, I'm almost resident to

1:49:34

tell you the story of I was

1:49:36

at the grocery store the other day

1:49:38

and I was waiting in line as

1:49:40

kind of a long line at the

1:49:42

grocery store and there was this 18

1:49:44

19 year old kid in front of

1:49:46

me and he was just complaining to

1:49:48

his mother about how America sucks and

1:49:50

you know he hates it in America

1:49:52

and he just you know kind of

1:49:54

wishes there you know just wishes the

1:49:56

worst out of everybody and I said

1:49:58

excuse me I said why do you

1:50:00

hate America so much and he said

1:50:02

why do you hate America so much

1:50:04

and he literally just start screaming at

1:50:06

me I mean just start screaming at

1:50:08

me I mean just start screaming at

1:50:11

me I mean just you're not trapped

1:50:13

in America you can you can certainly

1:50:15

leave and start screaming at me in

1:50:17

top of as long as his mom's

1:50:19

just staying there she's like completely red

1:50:21

she's so embarrassed she's so embarrassed she's

1:50:23

so embarrassed and Mike look I said

1:50:25

just take a breath for a second

1:50:27

I said my son when he was

1:50:29

18 he had a choice to go

1:50:31

to the military or go to college

1:50:33

and he came to me and he

1:50:35

says he was leaving the country and

1:50:37

he bought it he worked a summer

1:50:39

job he bought a plane ticket and

1:50:41

he left the country he's been living

1:50:43

overseas now for six years he's doing

1:50:45

great he loves it but it's no

1:50:47

different there than it is here because

1:50:49

again we can only make the best

1:50:51

out of our situation as to what

1:50:53

we have and It's like, well, I'm

1:50:55

not going to college, you know, and

1:50:57

I was like, that's your choice, you

1:50:59

don't have to go to college, you

1:51:01

can go to trade school and learn

1:51:03

to trade, I don't want to do

1:51:05

that, I don't want to work. And

1:51:07

I'm like, okay, so what do you,

1:51:09

what are you angry about? And just

1:51:11

start screaming at me at the top

1:51:13

of his lungs now, now the whole

1:51:15

store is looking at me, right, right?

1:51:17

And I'm like, okay, so what do,

1:51:19

what do you, what do you, what

1:51:21

do you, what do you, I said,

1:51:23

you hear a lot on social media,

1:51:26

you hear a lot of things in

1:51:28

front of you, probably most of them

1:51:30

aren't true. But the best thing you've

1:51:32

got to do is that you've got

1:51:34

to just figure out what it is

1:51:36

that you want to do and start

1:51:38

working towards a goal. And, you know,

1:51:40

you just at that point, you just

1:51:42

walked out of the store and one

1:51:44

willing to listen. But, you know, it's

1:51:46

just kind of that's the situation that

1:51:48

we've all gotten ourselves into is that

1:51:50

we've and we're unwilling to do what's

1:51:52

necessary to change our so circumstances and

1:51:54

whatever our circumstances are. they're changeable. We

1:51:56

just have to be willing to either

1:51:58

take the risk or put in the

1:52:00

effort or put in the time or

1:52:02

a combination of all of the above

1:52:04

to change those circumstances. And it may

1:52:06

not work out. It may not turn

1:52:08

out as we expect, but that's okay

1:52:10

too because we learn from that failure

1:52:12

and then we try again. But this

1:52:14

is the same thing that occurred. I

1:52:16

mean, the first time they tried to

1:52:18

make the atomic bomb, it didn't work.

1:52:20

Right. It's just they didn't just throw

1:52:22

some stuff together. It's like, okay, there

1:52:24

it is. Go, go, go, go, you

1:52:26

know, go drop the bob. You know,

1:52:28

it took test. It took failure after

1:52:30

failure after failure. It took test after

1:52:32

test after test after test. And then

1:52:34

you created the most horrific weapon ever

1:52:36

known demand. Probably would have done better

1:52:38

without that. But, you know, that's, but

1:52:40

that's the point. Anything that you want

1:52:43

to do in life, you know, how

1:52:45

many rockets, you know, you know, you

1:52:47

know, even when we got people into

1:52:49

space, things went wrong, you know, and

1:52:51

we learned from failure. And now we've

1:52:53

got some Yahoo that created a private

1:52:55

company that's going up to rescue people

1:52:57

off the international space station. So, you

1:52:59

know, it just goes to show you

1:53:01

that that anybody can achieve an outcome,

1:53:03

but it's going to take failure, it's

1:53:05

going to take education, and it's going

1:53:07

to take time. And nothing's going to

1:53:09

happen overnight. You know, the richest people

1:53:11

in the world, it only took 10

1:53:13

years to get there, right? I mean,

1:53:15

just, it takes time and effort to

1:53:17

achieve a goal, you just got to

1:53:19

be willing to commit to it. Well,

1:53:21

what you need is, you need a

1:53:23

healthy dose of exigency, right? This purposeful

1:53:25

urgency of, I'm going to get it

1:53:27

done. I had a couple of experiences

1:53:29

recently, they made. make their way into

1:53:31

future rants. But I had a very

1:53:33

good old friend come this weekend who

1:53:35

very tragically lost a child in an

1:53:37

accident. It was really just just terrible

1:53:39

and you know she's she's doing about

1:53:41

as best as you can getting on

1:53:43

with life. after that. But she'd be

1:53:45

the first one to tell you that,

1:53:47

you know, we don't have infinite time,

1:53:49

right? There's a lot of wonder and

1:53:51

a lot of beauty that we can

1:53:53

create in this life, but it's not

1:53:55

gonna happen on the zone, and we're

1:53:58

not gonna be here forever, right? So

1:54:00

you need, you know, this, right? So

1:54:02

you need, you know, this, this, you

1:54:04

know, exigency of saying, look, I got

1:54:06

to get started sooner rather than later,

1:54:08

and you, and at the end, going

1:54:10

to the moon and we're rescuing people

1:54:12

off of space stations and we're thinking

1:54:14

about going to other planets and expanding

1:54:16

human consciousness and that's just one example

1:54:18

right so anyways we'll wrap it up

1:54:20

here folks but but the call to

1:54:22

action here this week is to look

1:54:24

at your life dream bigger than you

1:54:26

do normally and then ask yourself what

1:54:28

can I do to dial up my

1:54:30

actions and see to try to create

1:54:32

some of these dreams and make them

1:54:34

realities in my life If you think

1:54:36

one of the best ways to make

1:54:38

a big dream of years of reality

1:54:40

is to continue to watch Lance Roberts

1:54:42

on this channel, everybody's biggest dream, I

1:54:44

think, let him know that by hitting

1:54:46

the like button and then clicking on

1:54:48

the subscribe button below as well as

1:54:50

that little bell icon right next to

1:54:52

it, if you want to take some

1:54:54

exigency in your financial life and maybe,

1:54:56

you know, especially if what you're doing.

1:54:58

is the old playbook that's not working

1:55:00

so great right now. You want to

1:55:02

leverage somebody else's process like Lance was

1:55:04

talking about, you know, if you've got

1:55:06

a good financial advisor who you're just

1:55:08

not working enough with, great, you know,

1:55:10

lean into that relationship, but if you

1:55:13

don't have one and would like to,

1:55:15

you know, talk to one of the

1:55:17

ones that thoughtful money endorses, perhaps even

1:55:19

as Lance Lance and his team there

1:55:21

at Real Investment advice. then consider scheduling

1:55:23

a free consultation with them by going

1:55:25

to thoughtful money.com filling out the short

1:55:27

form there and the firm that you

1:55:29

get matched with will be in touch

1:55:31

with you right away. All right, Lance,

1:55:33

look, another great week. Glad you're back

1:55:35

in action. It was funny a couple

1:55:37

times this week. I was thinking to

1:55:39

myself, did Lance leave on vacation? Because

1:55:41

like the market's doing really poor. Yeah,

1:55:43

no. But this week

1:55:45

started out well out

1:55:47

well and you know started

1:55:49

out with a bang

1:55:51

with a a thud.

1:55:53

So with a thud so see

1:55:55

how this turns

1:55:57

out next week. week. All

1:55:59

All right. Well,

1:56:01

no matter how it

1:56:03

turns out, you'll

1:56:05

be here making sense

1:56:07

of it for

1:56:09

us us with Lance. Thanks

1:56:11

so much. so everybody

1:56:13

else, thanks so

1:56:15

much for watching. watching.