0:00

In the two months since President Trump's

0:02

inauguration, the US has levied tariffs

0:04

on goods from China, Mexico, and

0:07

Canada. Many more tariffs, in fact,

0:09

than in Trump's first term. And

0:11

more and bigger tariffs are coming

0:14

on April 2nd. Reporters asked Trump

0:16

about them yesterday aboard Air Force

0:18

1. April 2nd is a liberating day

0:20

for our country. We're going to be

0:22

getting back some of the wealth that

0:24

very, very foolish presidents gave away. Because

0:27

they had no clue what they were

0:29

doing. In his first term, Trump

0:31

famously tweeted, trade wars are

0:33

good and easy to win.

0:35

The problem now is, consumer

0:37

confidence is weakening, retail sales

0:39

are slowing, layoffs are up,

0:41

the markets are selling off

0:43

in technicolor, everyone's talking about

0:45

a recession, and the president

0:47

won't rule one out. It takes a

0:49

little time. It takes a little time.

0:51

Trade show. Ahead on Today Explained.

0:59

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you get podcasts. Brought to you

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by Defender. I'm glad you asked

2:13

that because people have been asking

2:15

me that, you know, are

2:17

we in one and when are

2:20

we going to be in one?

2:22

How is this going to start?

2:24

It's already here. And the main

2:27

things really are targeting our three

2:29

biggest trading partners, China, Mexico, and

2:32

Canada, really to the shock of

2:34

everyone in the world, including some

2:36

people close to the White House.

2:39

Mexico and Canada have come in

2:41

for the steepest tariffs despite being

2:44

our closest allies. So, you know,

2:46

in the first few weeks here,

2:48

we were looking at about $1

2:51

trillion of new tariffs being, of

2:53

imports being subject to tariffs, and

2:56

about $2 trillion of additional imports

2:58

are potentially going to be hit

3:00

by imports starting April 2nd according

3:03

to the plan that Trump has

3:05

laid out. So that would cover...

3:08

you know, pretty close to everything

3:10

the United States imports from foreign

3:12

countries. And as of today, what

3:15

have China, Mexico and Canada done

3:17

to us? China has threatened and

3:20

imposed tariffs on a number of

3:22

U.S. agricultural and other exports. Canada

3:24

has threatened, although not yet

3:26

imposed, retaliatory measures on electricity used

3:29

by Americans in the North and

3:31

other U.S. exports to Canada. Mexico

3:34

has threatened or moved forward with

3:36

a number of retaliatory tariffs that

3:38

will hurt U. U.S. exports to

3:41

our southern border. So it's early,

3:43

but what has been the effect

3:46

of the tariffs on the American

3:48

economy as a whole? You know,

3:50

when I talk to businesses, what

3:53

they say overwhelmingly is, look, if

3:55

we had any confidence that Trump

3:58

was going to impose these

4:00

tariffs and keep them, even that

4:02

would be better than what is

4:04

the current status quo, which is

4:07

that business leaders don't know from

4:09

one hour to the next what

4:12

Trump is going to do. I

4:14

mean, last week, Trump threatened 50%

4:16

tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum,

4:19

and by the end of the

4:21

day, just a few hours, those

4:24

had been rescinded. And that means

4:26

that nobody can plan. Nobody can

4:28

make investment decisions because how do

4:31

you balance out what your

4:33

sort of revenue and expenses projections

4:35

will look like. in six months

4:38

if you don't know what the

4:40

tariffs are going to be in

4:42

a few hours. And we've seen

4:45

a real, real scary plunge in

4:47

consumer confidence, in investment, in expectations

4:50

of inflation from consumers, and all

4:52

these things combined to suggest that

4:54

there's a chance that the economy

4:57

could just sort of fall off

4:59

a cliff next quarter. And when

5:02

you talk to businesses who are

5:04

saying that they're massively pulling back

5:06

investment, That could filter through

5:08

to the, you know, sort of

5:11

the macro economy very quickly. President

5:13

Trump went on Fox News recently

5:16

and Maria Bartiromo asked him, Are

5:18

you expecting a recession this year?

5:20

And he did not rule it

5:23

out. I hate to predict things

5:25

like that. There is a period

5:28

of transition because what we're doing

5:30

is... And that led to some

5:32

speculation, including among informed people, that

5:35

Trump is planning for there to

5:37

be a downturn. And he's accepting

5:40

that there will be some

5:42

pain, but that the American economy

5:44

will reorient, and it will be

5:46

stronger. I mean, he has effectively

5:49

said this himself. Could that work?

5:51

So what the president and his

5:54

advisors have been sort of gesturing

5:56

towards is an attempt to really

5:58

rebalance like the entire global financial

6:01

system and... There has been a

6:03

critique of America's role in global

6:06

capitalism that's shared by large parts

6:08

of the left and large parts

6:10

of the labor movement and that

6:13

critique is essentially that America

6:15

has absorbed through its excess demand

6:17

the manufacturing capacity and the productive

6:20

capacity of the rest of the

6:22

world. was the United States provided

6:24

a source of massive demand acted

6:27

as arbiter of global peace but

6:29

did not receive adequate compensation. This

6:32

system is not sustainable. What he's

6:34

getting at is that the American

6:36

dollar has been very very strong

6:39

for quite a long time and

6:41

because the dollar has become the

6:44

backstop of the global financial system

6:46

we by imports at a very

6:48

cheap rate. And while that

6:50

sounds great, and many economists say

6:53

that it is great, our ability

6:55

to buy Chinese and Vietnamese and

6:58

Mexican and German exports on the

7:00

cheap has hurt. American manufacturing jobs

7:02

and sort of hollowed out the

7:05

Midwest and many parts of this

7:07

country that were dependent on the

7:10

ability to export to other markets.

7:12

And Trump is engaging in this

7:14

really radical attempt to wrench the

7:17

global financial system out of really

7:19

the place it's held in the

7:22

global financial system since the

7:24

Breton Woods Agreement that followed World

7:26

War II. and create a system

7:28

in which our manufacturing prowess returns

7:31

because we're shaking up our currency

7:33

and monetary agreements with the rest

7:36

of the world. That, however, is

7:38

not going to be accomplished by

7:40

tariffs and it is really, really

7:43

hard to imagine how Trump can

7:45

undo sort of what's happened in

7:48

the last 60, 70 years in

7:50

three to four years. But I

7:52

think it gives a clue and

7:55

sort of helps explain why

7:57

he keeps saying, you know, maybe

7:59

we'll have to stomach some short-term

8:02

pain to achieve that sort of

8:04

new order. All right, so he's

8:06

saying a weaker dollar might be

8:09

better for American manufacturers. Like in

8:11

theory, that makes sense. If the

8:14

dollar were to get weaker, if

8:16

it were no longer the backstop

8:18

of the world economy, what else

8:21

would happen? Right now America really

8:23

benefits from something I think we

8:26

kind of take for granted, which

8:28

is that we are able to

8:30

print huge amounts of money.

8:32

I mean, our debt and deficits

8:35

are sort of unparalleled in the

8:37

developed worlds. We have, you know,

8:40

35, 36 trillion dollars in debt

8:42

and the reason that we can

8:44

do that is in part because

8:47

America's dollar is viewed as such

8:49

a safe asset and that creates

8:52

demand for our debt which allows

8:54

us to, you know, afford pretty

8:56

low taxes with a... with the

8:59

amount of government spending that we

9:01

have, and that fiscal imbalance is

9:04

enabled in part by America's

9:06

status as sort of the global

9:08

financial back or backstock. If that

9:10

were to change in the world

9:13

that Trump is talking about, you

9:15

would see, you know, not only

9:18

it get more expensive to buy

9:20

foreign goods, you know, costs for

9:22

American consumers would rise, but it

9:25

would also lead to this really

9:27

difficult... rebalancing of our fiscal situation

9:30

which which could be quite painful

9:32

because it would allow you know

9:34

need it require either major tax

9:37

hikes or cuts to spending

9:39

programs that people really depend on

9:41

whether that loss could be offset

9:44

by the increase in American exports

9:46

is a it's a tricky bet

9:48

but it's such a profound transformation

9:51

that it's really hard to even

9:53

imagine what that could look like.

9:59

And the Trump team is likely

10:01

betting that Americans, many Americans, want

10:03

a transformation. What is happening now

10:05

though is very different than the

10:08

picture that Donald Trump sold to

10:10

voters on the campaign trail. From

10:12

today and from the day I

10:14

take the oath of office, we

10:16

will rapidly drive prices down and

10:18

make America affordable again. We're going

10:21

to make it affordable again. How

10:23

is the public responding to all

10:25

of this? We've really seen, I

10:27

mean, during the campaign it was

10:29

an interesting phenomenon because voters kind

10:31

of like the tariff talk. Like

10:34

they, they, you know, we would

10:36

do stories that called into question

10:38

whether Trump's tariffs would have crippling

10:40

effects for the global economy, but

10:42

the polls were very clear that

10:44

voters largely supported Trump's tariffs, and

10:47

they've believed him when he said

10:49

that they were taxes on foreign

10:51

countries, not Americans, even though that's

10:53

not really true. In the last

10:55

few weeks, because of the massive

10:57

uncertainty that Trump has created, we've

11:00

seen voters begin to sour on

11:02

the tariffs. And I think Trump's

11:04

huge stance on Chinese terrorists is

11:06

probably going to kill my business,

11:08

and here's why. There's going to

11:11

be such a price increase, and

11:13

I can't, I'm not going to

11:15

be able to give my customer

11:17

deals anymore. Hey, don't tariff me.

11:19

Don't do a tariff on me.

11:21

It's really, I mean... It's almost

11:24

a joke to think about the

11:26

extent of the hostilities with Canada.

11:28

I mean, Trump, when he was

11:30

running, his campaign ads were not,

11:32

helped me stick it to those

11:34

like dastardly syrup-eating like Quebec. It

11:37

was about lowering prices at the

11:39

grocery store and the idea that

11:41

Americans writ large are hungering for

11:43

deepening of hostilities with the Canadians

11:45

is... Something that I don't know

11:47

about you guys, but I don't

11:50

encounter a lot of Canadian anti-Canadian

11:52

sentiment in my daily life, and

11:54

I don't think most Americans feel

11:56

that way. We all remember that

11:58

during the first Trump administration, he

12:00

took cues from the markets. When

12:03

the markets dropped, Donald Trump tended

12:05

to change course. This time feels

12:07

very different, and again, we're only

12:09

two months in, but the president

12:11

has held steady with his tariff

12:14

plans largely despite protests from business

12:16

leaders, despite what we're seeing in

12:18

the markets even today. Is there

12:20

any sense of what it would

12:22

take at this point to get

12:24

Donald Trump to stop what he's

12:27

doing? I mean, here I think,

12:29

you know, this is a little

12:31

beyond my remit, but it's really

12:33

worth looking at the broad scope

12:35

of just how unencumbered the president

12:37

has been during his first few

12:40

weeks in office. I mean, one

12:42

of my other beats is covering

12:44

sort of the federal budget and

12:46

doge, and they are daring the

12:48

courts to rein them in, or

12:50

Congress to rein them in. I

12:53

think in that context, it looks

12:55

very clear to me that Trump,

12:57

you know, he's in his second

12:59

term, he has replaced, you know,

13:01

more independent cabinet members with people

13:03

who are much less willing to

13:06

push back. His allies in the

13:08

Republican Congress are also very fearful

13:10

of a primary and are currently

13:12

very unwilling to speak back against

13:14

him. In that environment, it does

13:16

not seem inconceivable that the market

13:19

could fall further and further. I

13:21

mean, we're already in correction territory.

13:23

And given that context, I think

13:25

there's a lot of reason to

13:27

be concerned that we could enter

13:30

a recession and Trump could say,

13:32

hey, it's worth it long term

13:34

for this quasi quixotic attempt to

13:36

rebalance the global financial system in

13:38

just a few years in a

13:40

way that has, I think it's

13:43

fair to say, never before been

13:45

tried. Jeff

13:51

Stein is the Washington Post's chief

13:53

economics reporter. Jeff, thank you so

13:55

much. Hey, my pleasure. Thanks for

13:57

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explained is back with the story

18:00

of America's other great trade war,

18:02

which starts with the first great

18:04

war, World War I. You probably

18:06

remember learning this one in school.

18:08

In Flanders Fields, the poppies blow

18:11

between the crosses, row on row.

18:13

Lister, did you know that Flanders

18:15

Fields before becoming a World War

18:17

I graveyard was actually farmland? In

18:20

fact, much of Europe before that

18:22

war was farmland, but when the

18:24

war started... Tons of bombs and

18:26

shells and hand grenades floated both

18:28

the farmland and sadly the farmers.

18:31

So someone else had to grow

18:33

crops. And America stepped in. American

18:35

farmers tripled down to feed the

18:37

world. They took out loans, they

18:39

bought more land. It was boom

18:42

time. Until the war ended. European

18:44

farmers went back to work and

18:46

the Americans couldn't sell their corn

18:48

and oats and milk, even at

18:50

home. Stuff from elsewhere was now

18:53

just cheaper. And so the Congress

18:55

and President Herbert Hoover decided to

18:57

place tariffs on goods coming into

18:59

America to protect our farmers. This

19:02

was called the Smoot-Holly Tariff Act,

19:04

and the immediate effect, says Chris

19:06

James Michener of the University of

19:08

Santa Clara, was outraged from the

19:10

rest of the world. The immediate

19:13

effect was protests by US major

19:15

US trade partners. Initially more than

19:17

20 countries lodge complaints with the

19:19

State Department and they do this

19:21

in the winter and spring of

19:24

1929. That number balloons to 35

19:26

by the fall. Herbert Hoover doesn't

19:28

want these names released. Eventually they

19:30

pressure Congress and Congress reads in

19:33

all the complaints into the public

19:35

record and you see complaints from

19:37

Austria over concerns about tariffs being

19:39

put on leather goods. You know,

19:41

see Guatemala complaining about bananas and

19:44

coffee. You see Italy complaining about

19:46

tomatoes and olive oil. You see

19:48

the UK complaining about woolen goods.

19:50

Australia with meat and wool. Oh,

19:52

crocky. And essentially, these are the

19:55

seeds of the trade war. The

19:57

countries that petition, then a subset

19:59

of... them are going to retaliate.

20:02

And so it turns out

20:04

six of the 10 largest

20:06

U.S. trade recipients of U.S.

20:08

exports then retaliate. This country

20:10

during the past few years,

20:12

culminating with the Hawley Smook

20:14

Tariff of 1929, has compelled

20:16

the world to build tariff

20:18

fences so high that world

20:20

trade is decreasing to the

20:22

vanishing point. The value of

20:24

goods internationally exchanged is today

20:26

less than half of what

20:28

it was. just three or

20:30

four years ago. And then what

20:33

happened? What happens is, you

20:35

know, Canada's Liberal Party calls

20:37

a snap election after

20:39

retaliating against America

20:42

by raising duties on things

20:44

like commodities, like eggs

20:46

and wheat. And that

20:48

snap election actually goes

20:50

to the conservatives. The

20:52

conservatives actually win it. because

20:55

they're even more anti-American and

20:57

pro-tariff than the liberals. How

20:59

many tens of thousands of

21:01

American workmen are living on

21:03

Canadian money today? They've got

21:05

the jobs and we've got

21:07

the soup kitchens. And so

21:09

I think the, you know,

21:11

the damage really was in

21:13

changing the way in which

21:15

we moved from a multilateral

21:17

trade system to one where

21:19

countries started thinking about... domestic

21:22

factors. We have to

21:24

remind ourselves that shortly

21:26

after the drafting of

21:29

Smootholly, a severe recession

21:31

starts in 1929, and

21:33

then that severe recession then

21:36

becomes, you know, the Great

21:38

Depression with incomes and prices

21:40

falling for four consecutive years,

21:42

unemployment rising to 20%. And

21:45

so this becomes... part of

21:47

a whole series of approaches

21:49

to dealing with the Great

21:51

Depression that were kind of

21:54

a me first approach. Smoodholly

21:56

creates a trade war and

21:58

then we see. this rising

22:00

tide of protection, where

22:03

countries not only are

22:05

just retaliating against the US,

22:07

but they then begin to

22:09

raise their tariffs against all

22:11

their trade partners as well.

22:14

Go into the home of

22:16

the businessman. He knows what the

22:18

tariff is done for him. Go

22:20

into the home of the factory

22:22

worker. He knows why good do

22:24

not move. Go into the home

22:26

of the farmer. He knows how

22:29

the Tariff has helped to ruin

22:31

him. Yes, that last our eyes

22:33

are open. Did it work? Anyone?

22:35

Anyone know the effects? It did

22:37

not work and the United

22:39

States sank deeper into the

22:42

Great Depression. The Smootholly Tariffs

22:44

no longer exist today. When and

22:46

how did we decide to get

22:48

rid of them? So it takes

22:50

a long time to kind

22:53

of reset trade relations. On

22:55

September 1st, 1939, the weather

22:57

perfect for mechanized warfare, Hitler

22:59

unleashed his split screen. Poland,

23:01

September 1939. The German fall

23:04

begins its ruthless march of

23:06

conquest and sets the stage

23:08

for World War II. When

23:10

the war took place, I

23:12

think American policy makers

23:14

had a shift in their view,

23:17

that that domestic orientation

23:19

no longer seemed appropriate.

23:21

given the US's role

23:23

in World War II, and

23:26

the fact that geopolitics had

23:28

changed enormously. They had changed

23:30

such that the US viewed

23:33

itself in a leadership

23:35

role, and that in order

23:37

to extend its political goals,

23:40

spreading democracy in free

23:42

markets, it very much

23:44

wanted to help its

23:46

allies in reconstructing

23:48

a global economy. that the United

23:51

States should do whatever it is able

23:53

to do, to assist in the return of

23:55

normal economic health in the world, without

23:57

which there can be no political

23:59

stability. And no assured peace.

24:01

So the US helps to

24:03

reconstruct a global order in

24:05

its vision, but it is a

24:08

vision that includes global trade, which

24:10

was seen as going to be

24:12

helpful for the US because

24:14

the US had become a

24:16

technological leader, had lots

24:18

of machinery and equipment to

24:20

export to the rest of

24:22

the world, was in a

24:24

position to benefit itself. and

24:26

to trade for inputs that

24:28

it needed into production and

24:30

allow its neighboring countries to

24:33

kind of revive their markets

24:35

and serve as a bulwark

24:37

against the emergence of communism.

24:39

Our aim should be to

24:41

help the free people of

24:43

the world through their own

24:45

efforts to produce more food,

24:47

more clothing, more materials for

24:49

housing, and more mechanical power

24:51

to lighten their burdens. We

24:54

invite other countries. to pull

24:56

their technological resources in this

24:58

undertaking. Their contributions will be

25:00

warmly welcome. So we shifted

25:03

to a multilateral viewpoint after

25:05

World War II, and the

25:07

most dramatic illustration of that

25:10

was kind of the creation

25:12

of new institutions, including GAT,

25:14

the General Agreement on Tarison

25:17

Trade, which was the precursor to

25:19

the WTO. And that's to answer

25:21

your question one sentence. That's

25:23

what ended up unwinding. the rise

25:25

in protectionism and the Smudhali tariffs.

25:27

That took decades though. It took

25:30

negotiated agreements to lower those tariffs

25:32

over several decades to bring tariffs

25:34

back down. And eventually those tariff

25:36

rates fall well below where they

25:39

were prior to Smudhali. So they

25:41

move even further into a world

25:43

of, you know, what many of

25:45

us would refer to as like

25:47

the second era of globalization. What

25:51

are you thinking about as

25:53

you watch the Trump administration

25:55

undertake what potentially could be

25:57

the next great trade war? Well,

26:00

I think what I would suggest

26:02

people take away from Smoodholly is

26:05

that history doesn't repeat, but it

26:07

rhymes. And if we look back

26:09

at those effects and we focus

26:12

in on the interconnected nature of

26:14

trade, we can see these trade

26:16

wars as just simply being super

26:19

disruptive of relations that in some

26:21

ways take. whether they're formal or

26:23

informal just you know two people

26:26

trying to decide hey you sell

26:28

something interesting I want that thing

26:30

those relations break down and that can and

26:32

that's just essentially raising trade costs that's what

26:35

we see in the data when we turn

26:37

back in history and I think you know

26:39

there's the potential for that it again if

26:41

the trade war erupts into being something as

26:44

widespread as it was in the 30s that's

26:46

the thing we would want to pay attention

26:48

to you know the US economy is huge

26:50

Trade is just a small portion of it,

26:52

but that small portion matters and that small

26:55

portion can be disrupted. Chris

27:09

James Michener. He's a professor of

27:11

economics at Santa Clara University. He

27:13

also works with the National Bureau

27:15

of Economic Research and the Center

27:18

for European Policy Research. Amanda Luelen

27:20

produced today's show and Jolie Myers

27:22

edited. Andrei Kristen's daughter and Patrick

27:24

Boyd engineered and Laura Bullard and

27:27

Travis Larchak Chuck the facts. I'm

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