0:00

Coming up on Today Explained, President Biden spoke

0:02

from Israel today after meeting with Israeli

0:04

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He

0:07

said, among other things, Israel has the right

0:09

to defend itself and the U.S.

0:11

will help Israel.

0:12

My message to any state or any other

0:14

hostile actor, thinking about

0:16

attacking Israel remains the same as it was a week

0:18

ago. Don't. Don't.

0:22

Don't.

0:22

Biden also said, based on information

0:25

he's seen, quote, an errant rocket

0:27

fired by a terrorist group from Gaza

0:30

caused the devastation at a hospital in Gaza

0:32

City yesterday. Gaza's health ministry

0:34

blames Israel for that incident. Biden

0:37

also urged Israel to be cautious.

0:39

The vast majority

0:41

of Palestinians are not Hamas. Hamas

0:45

does not represent the Palestinian

0:47

people.

0:48

We have news of Biden's visit coming up next.

1:01

You're listening to Today Explained.

1:06

It's been 11 days since Hamas attacked

1:08

Israel, killing civilians and taking

1:10

hostages. Israel's retaliation

1:13

has created a humanitarian catastrophe

1:15

in Gaza. Can diplomacy

1:18

work at this point? Today

1:20

we're going to ask people who are familiar with such

1:22

negotiations. Aaron David Miller

1:24

is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment who

1:27

served in both Republican and Democratic

1:29

presidential administrations as

1:31

a Middle East analyst, advisor and negotiator.

1:34

I asked him, what is President

1:36

Biden's objective on this trip?

1:39

I think there are three objectives. Number

1:42

one is to demonstrate to the people

1:44

of Israel traumatized and

1:47

lacking, I think, in their own view of their own leadership

1:50

to demonstrate a measure

1:52

of hope and support for the Israelis. I

1:54

come to Israel with a single message. You're

1:57

not alone. You

1:59

are not alone. As long

2:01

as the United States stands and we will stand forever,

2:04

we'll not let you ever be alone.

2:07

He's already started by meeting with the families

2:09

of first responders and hostages. The

2:12

second objective, complicated by

2:14

the fact that the Arab summit in

2:17

Amman was postponed, has

2:19

sort of been short circuited because

2:22

he can crest the Israelis on the need for

2:24

a stable and predictable

2:26

humanitarian corridor to surge

2:29

humanitarian assistance in badly

2:31

needed communities, displaced

2:34

Palestinians in southern Gaza. But he

2:37

cannot have an opportunity right now to talk

2:39

to Abu Fattah Sisi directly

2:42

in person in Amman and I think that's

2:44

unfortunate. The other reality

2:47

is because of the attack on

2:49

the Al-Ahly Arab hospital in

2:51

Gaza, there are demonstrations

2:53

throughout the region, anger is surging. And

2:56

the visit because he cannot see America's

2:59

Arab partners, Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian

3:01

Authority, seems to be an

3:03

Israel only trip. And

3:06

given the anger generated by the attack,

3:08

and I might say the president must have

3:10

received information because he made a statement that

3:13

basically said that it was

3:15

his understanding that the Israelis were not responsible.

3:18

I'm deeply saddened and outraged by the

3:21

explosion at the hospital in Gaza yesterday.

3:24

And based on what I've seen, it appears as though

3:26

it was done by the other team,

3:28

not you. But

3:31

the perception on the Arab street

3:33

and in the Arab world, in the Muslim world, is

3:36

that the Israelis were responsible for this

3:38

and no denial and no explanation

3:41

by the United States is going

3:43

to address that problem. So that creates

3:45

an optic problem for the administration

3:47

going forward. And finally, the third

3:49

and hardest objective was

3:52

to sit with the prime minister in his war

3:54

cabinet, to question

3:56

them on the issue of the ground campaign.

4:00

What are the means that Israel's disposal to carry

4:02

it out? What are the complications? And

4:04

of course, what happens the day after?

4:07

The president has already added to his

4:09

preternatural support of Israel over the

4:12

last week additional points

4:14

on proportionality, the need to

4:16

adhere to the rules of war, the

4:18

need to avoid civilian casualties, and

4:21

the need to avoid reoccupying Gaza.

4:23

I, in my own sense now, whether

4:26

it's been a factor in the delay, Israeli

4:28

indecision has been a factor in delay.

4:30

The Biden visit will now almost

4:33

certainly delay the ground campaign. I'm beginning

4:35

to think that the massive

4:37

ground campaign that the Israelis have promised,

4:39

the mobilization and their response

4:42

may not be that massive ground campaign.

4:45

What would take its place? I'm not sure, but

4:48

there's clearly a degree of indecision

4:50

and I suspect the president will

4:53

seek to try to clarify what

4:55

the Israelis intend to do in

4:57

the days and weeks ahead.

5:05

Why is it important for him to clarify what the Israelis

5:07

intend to do in the days and weeks ahead? Is that

5:10

part of a plan to deescalate this

5:12

war?

5:12

It's a fascinating question. I

5:14

think he would like to, but

5:17

I don't think we reach the point where the

5:20

president is going to say to the prime minister, it would

5:22

be much better for the US-Israeli

5:25

relationship. Our interests,

5:27

my personal relationship with you and

5:30

the region, if you didn't do this, I

5:32

think the line of questioning will lead

5:35

to an effort to try

5:37

to get the Israelis to think through the consequences

5:41

of what it is they intend to do,

5:43

how complex it is, how difficult it

5:45

is. Because in many respects,

5:48

Joe Biden and Israel not sandwiched

5:51

between this savage brutal Hamas

5:53

terror search, the Israeli blockade

5:55

against Gaza, the punishing

5:58

airstrikes.

5:59

on one hand, possibility of a massive

6:02

ground campaign against

6:04

Hamas on the other. The president

6:07

is going to be identified with

6:09

this operation. I

6:12

think he understands that. He's put himself

6:14

firmly in the Israeli camp. I

6:16

think he is pressing to get

6:19

them to understand the consequences

6:22

and the implications of what the Israelis could

6:24

do. I do not believe, and

6:26

I could be wrong, that he's exploring

6:29

alternatives in any

6:31

detail to such a ground

6:33

campaign. I'm getting the sense, my

6:36

own sense, untethered

6:38

from any contacts with

6:41

the government of Israel or the Biden administration,

6:44

that there is a growing sense of delay

6:46

and uncertainty on the

6:48

part of the Israelis themselves about

6:51

what it is they're going to do. And then

6:54

the question becomes, if there

6:56

is no massive unprecedented

6:58

ground campaign, what do the

7:00

Israelis intend to do? And

7:03

I think this is a question that it's

7:05

impossible to answer, and

7:07

I may be wrong. But clearly,

7:10

we're in the week two. I suspect there will

7:12

be no major ground campaign

7:14

in the wake of the president's departure.

7:17

I think that would be a mistake and

7:19

would further tie the president to what

7:22

the Israelis are going to do. I don't think there's

7:24

an answer to your question.

7:26

President Biden was, as you know,

7:28

as we said, he was supposed to meet

7:30

with the Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud

7:32

Abbas. He was also supposed to meet with the leaders

7:34

of Jordan and Egypt. Now, after

7:37

the hospital was hit, as you said, those

7:39

leaders canceled an in-person meeting.

7:41

How significant is that, and what

7:43

could it mean here?

7:45

I think it's unfortunate because he needs to

7:47

have conversations. Those are three

7:50

key partners, Egypt,

7:52

Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority. As weak

7:55

and dysfunctional as the Palestinian Authority is,

7:57

it is still the address. It is the address.

8:00

Israel. It's the address for the international

8:02

community, the Palestinian address, and

8:04

it's the address for U.S. relations

8:06

with the Palestinians. So the

8:08

Palestinian dimension of this and the Palestinian

8:11

authorities' role here right

8:14

now is marginal. But as

8:16

the days and weeks proceed with or without

8:19

a ground campaign, if the United

8:21

States is going to be more deeply involved

8:24

in the Palestinian issue, and I suspect it

8:27

will be, it has to be now, the

8:29

Palestinian authority, for

8:32

one of any other address or

8:34

partner, is going to have to play

8:36

a greater role. And Mr. Biden has a stake

8:39

in further legitimizing it.

8:42

There has to be Arab state participation,

8:45

and Mr. Biden's maintaining

8:47

contacts with these partners

8:50

is critically important.

8:51

What are the risks

8:52

for President Biden in taking

8:54

this trip, in being there in Israel?

8:57

Physical risks, obviously, which Secret

8:59

Service is concerned about. He's been to Ukraine, which

9:01

I think is a far more fraught and vulnerable

9:04

security risk, but I think that'll be fine.

9:07

Frankly, if the president can't

9:09

figure out a way to deliver on the humanitarian

9:12

issue, which is complicated, there's

9:14

only one crossing point now through Rafa

9:17

in which aid can surge in. And

9:20

that situation is complicated

9:22

by Egypt's interest,

9:24

Hamas's interest, and Israel's interest.

9:27

But at a minimum, I think he has to deliver on

9:29

the humanitarian to create

9:31

the stable corridor of assistance

9:34

to Gaza. That's the key objective,

9:36

frankly, I suspect in terms

9:39

of the risk category, it's only

9:41

the optic, the perception that

9:43

he's visiting the region, but

9:46

only going to Israel. That's

9:49

not Mr. Biden's fault or

9:51

responsibility. He intended quite correctly

9:54

to meet with the Arab partners in Amman. That's

9:56

not going to happen. That would be the

9:58

only optic problem.

10:00

Aaron, lastly, this region has

10:02

been troubled for generations. You

10:04

were an advisor to Secretaries of State and

10:06

multiple presidential administrations. You

10:09

worked at the State Department for years. Does

10:11

this moment feel different to you at all?

10:13

You know, I was in Jerusalem in 1973 on

10:15

October 6th. And

10:20

the same sense of vulnerability,

10:23

of trauma,

10:25

the intelligence failure. The

10:27

fact that the Middle East would never be the

10:30

same again. In 1973,

10:33

I was right. Within six years

10:36

of that trauma, Egypt

10:38

and Israel would sign a full

10:41

Treaty of Peace. So out of

10:43

trauma came hope.

10:45

Twenty years later, September

10:48

13th, 1993, I'm sitting on the White

10:50

House lawn watching an amazement as

10:53

Bill Clinton, Yithakirah being

10:56

Yasser Arafat signed the Oslo course,

10:58

thinking wrongly in a

11:01

galactic misjudgment that

11:03

the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

11:05

had reached a turning point and had

11:07

become irreversible in

11:10

its momentum toward a negotiated solution.

11:13

Well, in that case,

11:15

hope

11:16

turned to trauma. So I

11:18

would say two things. The arc of history

11:21

is long, and it bends in very

11:24

strange and very unpredictable ways,

11:26

number one. And number two, every breakthrough

11:29

in this conflict, whether it was

11:31

the 1973 war that produced

11:35

the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, whether

11:37

it was the Madrid Peace Conference, which

11:40

I, part of a small team, helped former

11:43

Secretary of State Baker fashion

11:46

in October of 1991,

11:49

was preceded by Saddam's invasion of Kuwait

11:52

in the first Iraq war. The

11:55

Oslo Accords and the Israeli-Jordanian

11:57

peace treaty grew out of the first

11:59

Intifada. where the Israelis

12:01

made a decision, Prime Minister Rabin,

12:04

that there was no military solution to the Palestinian

12:06

problem. Every agreement

12:10

in these conflict zones

12:13

came out of terror, insurgency,

12:16

and war.

12:17

And you could only

12:19

hope, when a long, dark

12:22

tunnel now,

12:23

you can only hope,

12:25

if past is prologue, that

12:28

the pain involved on both sides

12:31

will create the kind of urgency

12:34

that will lead to some

12:37

new opening, some new point

12:39

of departure. But it's crucial

12:42

to make sure that the pain,

12:45

which is why people act in some respects,

12:48

creates urgency, is accompanied by the

12:50

prospects of gain. It

12:52

is the pain plus gain

12:54

that give rise to breakthroughs in

12:57

the Arab-Israeli conflict. So I

13:00

never say never. I would

13:02

only hope somewhere, amidst

13:04

all the horror, the violence,

13:06

and the tragedy of what we're watching, will

13:09

come a new sort of

13:12

opening to put Israelis and Palestinians

13:14

on a different course. That

13:17

was Aaron David Miller.

13:25

He's a Middle East

13:28

analyst. Coming up, the view from

13:30

where President Biden isn't going.

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15:43

It's Today Explained. I'm Noelle King. The leaders

15:45

of Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian

15:48

Authority canceled their meetings

15:50

with President Biden after the

15:52

Al-Ahly hospital in Gaza City was struck

15:54

yesterday. We're going to look at what these

15:56

Arab countries want with Middle East analyst

15:59

Michael Waheed.

17:14

Such

18:00

a peace will go a long way

18:02

to ending the Arab-Israeli conflict.

18:04

And of course, events of the past

18:07

days have blown us under

18:09

a lot of the assumptions that undergirded this

18:12

diplomatic effort.

18:13

The idea that the region had kind of leapfrogged

18:16

ahead of the issue of Palestine

18:18

and not be held hostage to

18:20

the lack of a resolution of this

18:22

conflict

18:23

to push forward other interests.

18:29

Where do things stand today

18:32

after 11 days of war? I

18:34

think it's worth pausing and

18:36

thinking about the regional reaction,

18:39

particularly after the outrage

18:41

in the region seen after the bombing

18:43

of the Italy hospital in Gaza.

18:50

The whole region is at the brink of falling into

18:52

the abyss, that this new

18:54

cycle of death and destruction is

18:56

pushing us towards. The

18:59

threat of this war expanding is

19:01

real. The cost this

19:04

will bring on all of us is too

19:06

much to bear. Regional mood has

19:08

shifted. I think it's, you know,

19:10

regardless of attribution, and this would

19:13

be a point of very serious contestation.

19:16

But in a sense, the region has

19:18

made a judgment about the war, about

19:20

its trajectory, about what

19:23

it is hoping to see. And so the

19:25

reason I say that is because we saw

19:27

sort of unanimity in approach. You

19:30

had very condemnatory

19:32

statements coming from Egypt,

19:36

Jordan, but also the UAE

19:38

and Saudi. That is a judgment

19:40

about the war itself and about

19:42

their fears and about its direction, perhaps

19:45

more so than attribution. Because

19:48

obviously there's deep skepticism in the region

19:50

about the Israeli account for

19:52

what happened. But the fact that the statements

19:54

came out, the fact that the statements looked like

19:57

they did, I think is reflected.

20:00

of this shift in regional mood. And

20:03

that shift might actually create

20:06

real constraints on Israel's

20:08

freedom of operation and

20:11

perhaps the kind of scope of military

20:13

offensive that it might be able to launch

20:15

now.

20:18

President Biden is in Israel today.

20:21

He was supposed to, on this trip,

20:24

meet with the president of Egypt, Abdul Fattah

20:26

al-Sisi. That meeting was canceled

20:28

yesterday after the hospital in Gaza City

20:30

was bombed. And we hear, instead,

20:33

they may speak on the phone. What

20:35

does Biden want

20:36

from Egypt? Yeah, he

20:38

was slated to meet with King Abdullah,

20:41

King of Jordan, Abdul Fattah al-Sisi,

20:43

the president of Egypt, and Mahmoud

20:46

Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority.

20:48

They were to meet an Amen. And of

20:50

course, it's not surprising that

20:52

after yesterday's incident

20:55

and what looks to be a pretty horrific

20:59

civilian toll, Mahmoud Abbas

21:01

at first and the others later pulled the plug on

21:04

this meeting. It's reflective of

21:07

the strain on relations with

21:09

the United States, seen as the sort

21:11

of key backer of Israel and how

21:13

volatile the moment is. And

21:16

I'm sure there will be multiple

21:18

communications in the coming days with these

21:21

leaders, including President Sisi,

21:24

because humanitarian

21:26

access is dependent at this point, because

21:29

of the Israeli stance, on coming

21:31

to an agreement on the Rafah border crossing.

21:34

So, you know, there has been a lot

21:36

of talk about opening up

21:39

the Egyptian's contest that it's closed, but

21:41

they say that it is non-functional

21:44

because of Israeli airstrikes and the

21:46

lack of full agreement on how

21:49

the crossing would operate. But

21:51

clearly, there is a big gap between what the United

21:53

States has announced on humanitarian access

21:56

and assistance and what we

21:58

see on the ground. There is not a functioning. border

22:00

crossing now. And it will

22:03

be key in the coming days because

22:05

the situation really is quite dire inside

22:07

Gaza and the Israelis are not going

22:09

to let up on their siege. That

22:12

there is a way to create a somewhat

22:16

normalized functioning of Rafah to allow

22:19

humanitarian supplies in

22:21

to Gaza to let

22:24

American citizens and other foreign nationals

22:26

out of Gaza. And

22:29

at some point to bring out injured for medical

22:31

treatment and potentially

22:33

this could be a conduit for hostage

22:35

diplomacy around the Israeli

22:37

and other hostages held by Hamas in

22:41

Gaza. So I think that's

22:43

going to be the main focus at

22:45

the moment. But as I mentioned,

22:47

I think the other thing that has

22:49

shifted now after

22:52

the hospital bombing is

22:54

the regional attitude toward

22:57

the war, regional patience with

23:00

where it is going. It seems very

23:02

clear to me that this

23:04

kind of coordinated regional response

23:07

moving in lockstep in a conteminatory fashion

23:11

is meant to send a signal to the

23:13

Israel and the United States about

23:15

their fears of where this is going and maybe

23:18

expectations about accounts to

23:20

try to tame this violence and

23:23

eventually bring it to a close. There

23:25

is a lot of anger in the region. There

23:27

is a lot of blame placed not just

23:29

on Israel but the United States as

23:32

the kind of prime external backer.

23:34

And so there is risk here, very

23:36

serious risk for the United States in

23:39

being associated with whatever

23:41

comes next.

23:43

Could diplomacy still

23:45

work here, Michael? Is de-escalation

23:48

which seems far away? Is de-escalation

23:52

still a possibility?

23:56

It's a question for U.S. leaders.

24:00

and European leaders. I don't

24:02

think the Israeli political

24:05

class is in any mood for de-escalation

24:08

based on the kind of nature

24:10

of the attacks and their sense

24:12

of vulnerability and humiliation, but

24:15

in a sense it falls to the United States

24:17

and others to counsel

24:20

wisdom at a time of high emotion.

24:22

Justice must be done, but

24:26

I caution this while you feel that rage.

24:29

Don't be consumed by it.

24:31

So that's the big question

24:34

for the United States. Now

24:36

it's a question for President Biden, particularly

24:39

with the regional visit that

24:41

so tightly links him personally

24:44

in the United States more generally with

24:46

this Israeli military operation.

24:49

What sets us apart from the terrorists

24:51

is we believe in the fundamental dignity

24:54

of every human life.

24:56

Israeli, Palestinian,

24:59

Arab, Jew, Muslim, Christian, everyone.

25:02

And clearly we see

25:05

the horrific kinds of violence that

25:07

are almost certainly going to multiply

25:11

if this war continues

25:13

on its current trajectory and if the Israelis

25:16

launch what could be a very prolonged

25:18

protracted and bloody ground invasion.

25:24

That was Michael Waheed Hanna of the International

25:27

Crisis Group. We're going to continue

25:29

to cover this war as it unfolds

25:31

and if you have something that you want explained

25:34

we'd love to hear from you. You can call

25:36

us at 202-643-0314

25:39

and just know that if you leave us a message we may

25:42

play your message on the air. Today's

25:44

episode was produced by Hadi Moagdi and Amanda

25:46

Llewelyn. We had help from John Arons and

25:49

our editor is Amna El-Sadi. Our engineers

25:51

were David Herman and Patrick Boyd and

25:53

our fact checkers were Tien Nguyen and

25:55

Abishai Artsy. I'm Noelle King. It's

25:57

Today Explained.

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Thanks to Contentful

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for supporting this video. In today's

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digital-first world, content is

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the customer experience. But to build

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those experiences, digital teams need an

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intelligent solution that can keep pace with their

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business goals. Enter Contentful.

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A composable content platform empowers

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digital teams to scale and launch campaigns

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quickly and efficiently. Their composable

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content platform makes it easy to create,

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collaborate, manage, and deliver content

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across all of your channels, all from one place.

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Contentful. Where content drives business

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momentum. Get started at Contentful.com.