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insider.com Welcome

1:05

to Volatility Views. The Premier

1:08

Program for Volatility Traders. Each

1:10

week we'll take a deep

1:12

dive into the world of

1:15

volatility with in-depth analysis, trading

1:17

activity reviews, strategy breakdowns, cutting-edge

1:19

education, and much more. We'll

1:21

also bring you exclusive conversations

1:24

with the traders, researchers, and

1:26

asset managers who are reshaping

1:28

the volatility landscape. If it

1:31

involves volatility, then you'll find

1:33

it on volatility views.

1:36

And now, it's time

1:38

to take a deep

1:41

dive into the world

1:43

of volatility. It's time

1:46

for volatility views. All

1:48

right everybody, that music

1:51

means we are back

1:53

once again. It is

1:55

Friday, it is noon

1:57

central, it is one... PM

1:59

Eastern it's time to talk

2:01

some ball and man we got some

2:03

ball to talk about again this week

2:05

by name of course Mark Longo from

2:07

the options insider.com as well as from the

2:10

network upon which all of you folks are

2:12

binging this week hope you're having a good

2:14

week hope you're making some money hope you're

2:16

at the very least keeping your head above

2:18

water out there a lot of A lot of

2:20

whipping and sawn and then the latter portion of

2:23

the week we kind of saw mostly just trending.

2:25

So intriguing stuff out there a lot of vol

2:27

in the matter what asset classes you're looking at

2:29

out there even though a little bit less off

2:31

the top on the equity vol front we'll

2:33

get there in a second of course if you

2:36

want to join us for awesome pro Q&As we

2:38

had an awesome one earlier this week with our

2:40

good buddy Dan the man grams that he tackled

2:42

just about. Every asset class vol comes

2:44

in all shapes and sizes and we

2:47

covered it all on the pro Q&A

2:49

this week Check it out over there

2:51

on the pro the options insider.com/pro is

2:53

the place to go to learn more about

2:55

not just equity vol metals vol energy

2:57

vol effects rates you name it crypto

3:00

we went down the rabbit hole this

3:02

week and of course coming up after

3:04

this show we'll be diving into a

3:06

little bit of options oddities where to

3:08

go to get all that the options

3:10

insider.com slash pro start getting your name

3:12

in the hat as well because we're coming

3:15

up to the end of eight man we're

3:17

just giving out crates left and right it

3:19

seems like already almost time to give

3:21

away the April pro trading crate trust

3:23

me you want to get at least

3:26

one of these in your trading life

3:28

the options insider.com/ pro

3:30

the place to go to learn more as we

3:32

learn who's joining us on the old program

3:35

today first we go out to the

3:37

hallowed halls of the Jovanazi compound where

3:39

we are joined once again by

3:42

the rocking of the Blosters. Mr.

3:44

Andrew Giovannizzi from Opit.com.

3:46

Mr. G. Welcome back

3:48

to the show on yet another

3:51

volatile Friday, sir. Volatile

3:53

Friday, yes, but dare we tickle

3:55

the bottom of the danger zone

3:57

today? Yes. We could very well.

3:59

be tickling it. Yes, you're squailing the

4:01

lead here. Yes, I don't know. I have

4:04

to keep Mr. Logins in the green room.

4:06

We just broke a 25, but we'll get

4:08

there in a second. I had to pay

4:10

his fee and now we got to keep

4:13

him in the green room. He's going to

4:15

be really mad. I was about to say,

4:17

I don't want you to get deep platformed

4:20

again. I'm going to have to eat that

4:22

appearance fee now because of my damned Logins

4:24

integrity. To the hinterlands of Chicago, we are

4:26

joined once again. A man who has no

4:29

integrity logins or otherwise. None other

4:31

than Dr. Vicks himself. Mr.

4:33

Mr. Russell Rhodes from the

4:35

Kelly School of Business. Mr.

4:37

Rock, excuse me, Mr. Dr. Vicks.

4:39

Welcome back to the show, sir. I'm

4:42

Rock Roads. Rock Road we could

4:44

combine all that up and whenever

4:46

we're on up, we could have

4:48

Rocky Road. Rocky Road Friday when

4:50

we have the Rock Lobster and

4:52

Me on at. the same time.

4:54

I'm just going to call you

4:56

dusty today and hopefully we'll have

4:58

a chance to get to what

5:00

I'm salty about. I was calling

5:02

you dusty for the rest of

5:04

the show. How about that? Don't

5:06

do that. A little dusty roads

5:08

action here. Please don't do that.

5:10

On the show. As we keep

5:12

on rolling right on into the

5:14

volatility review. It's

5:19

time to break down

5:22

the latest developments in

5:24

the volatility trading world.

5:26

It's time for the

5:28

volatility review. All

5:47

right everybody, let's dance a little bit of

5:49

the old vol review, the portion of the

5:51

show where we break down all the vol

5:53

trades and trends and developments that caught

5:56

our eye this week and indeed today.

5:58

And yeah, it's another interesting. one

6:00

out there listens. I've said it for a while

6:02

now, I don't like where these markets are or which

6:04

direction they're moving in, just wait five

6:06

minutes, chances are it'll be markedly

6:08

different. As we're coming into the end of

6:10

the show, we've seen a mostly upward trajectory

6:12

in the markets this week, which is a

6:15

bit of a departure from previous weeks where

6:17

we're up in the morning, then we're down

6:19

in the afternoon, then up again in the

6:21

evening, or vice versa. just whipping the saw

6:23

and all over the place leading to a lot

6:25

of vol on the screen. But when we're

6:27

trending in one direction, it tends to

6:29

take some of that vol. Unless the

6:31

move is pretty aggressive. Earlier this week

6:34

we saw vol actually popping a little

6:36

bit off. The aggressive upside move that

6:38

we saw. Remember the end of the

6:40

day movement is vol. Doesn't matter which

6:42

direction we're going in. But now that

6:45

we're kind of mostly seem like we're

6:47

gently drifting upward with the exception perhaps

6:49

of today. We're seeing a lot of

6:51

vol. had the logins and his band

6:53

here. They were warming up. I heard

6:56

them before a showtime. They sounded great.

6:58

We were all ready to bring them

7:00

out of the green room to have

7:02

a little bit of danger zone fun

7:05

here on the show listeners. And then

7:07

guess what happened right as the show

7:09

started? We broke 25 in the wrong

7:11

direction. 2485 now in Vicks Cash as

7:14

we kick off the show down a

7:16

little over 14, about 14.15 points from

7:18

our last show, which remember was... two

7:20

weeks ago. We didn't have a show

7:22

last week on Good Friday because the

7:25

markets were closed. So yeah, I had

7:27

to send Kenny and Company back to the

7:29

Green Room. They were a little mad. I'm

7:31

not going to lie. I might probably still

7:33

have to pay them their appearance fee.

7:35

But we'll see. Maybe we can get

7:37

some some logins to join us throughout

7:39

the show. Listen, so if you're tuning

7:41

it in, especially for the logins, and

7:44

I saw a bunch of folks tweeting

7:46

in the beginning of the week, they were

7:48

all giddy We'll see what we get again.

7:50

We are nothing if we don't have

7:52

our logins integrity listeners here on

7:54

the show. Our old pal Volley,

7:57

aka the at the Money Vol,

7:59

aka Scott Nations. creation there, 21

8:01

60 off nearly 13 points, about

8:04

12.9 points, and where it was

8:06

this time last week. And our

8:08

old pal Vivix, aka the vol

8:10

of at about a 101, as

8:12

we kicked off the show, so

8:14

ready to break the par strike

8:17

in the wrong direction, down a

8:19

whopping 64 handles from where

8:21

it was two weeks ago here

8:24

on the show. a lot popping off

8:26

in the vol space. It sounds

8:28

like Mr. Doctor Vix is a

8:30

little spicy today as well. So

8:32

maybe we'll kick things off with

8:34

him. Mr. Doctor Vix, sir, what's

8:36

catching your eye? And yet another

8:38

intriguing, oh, by the way, before

8:40

I even get there, really quickly,

8:42

S&P right now as we're kicking

8:44

off the show, trending back up

8:46

again, it was kind of hanging

8:48

out mixed. Now it's up nearly

8:50

half a percent, about 0.45. bit of

8:52

a mixed bag out there in the

8:54

market today. All right, Mr. Rhodes, the

8:57

floor is yours, how about it, sir?

8:59

You know, this isn't the past week,

9:01

but I get to talk about the

9:03

past couple of weeks, and I don't,

9:05

and something in the show notes

9:07

that you sent out was a chart

9:09

showing that we had four 20 day or

9:11

20 point ranges in a row. uh... april

9:13

seventh eighth ninth and tenth

9:16

and that's never happened before

9:18

and if you exclude the

9:21

overnight data it didn't happen

9:23

then either you know in fact

9:25

the only uh... the of those

9:27

four days the only one that

9:30

the high low range occurred during

9:32

the regular trading hour was

9:34

the eight uh... so i get i

9:36

i get salty i get all fired

9:38

up when i see people talk about

9:40

historical vics and this has

9:42

never happened that's never happened and

9:44

whatever we're talking about happening happened

9:46

during the extended trading hours when

9:48

there ain't a whole lot of

9:50

liquidity and SBX options and I even

9:52

I haven't had enough time to

9:54

get all my evidence in shape

9:56

but a while back I did

9:58

a thing where I checked how often

10:01

was the VIX high during the extended

10:03

hours and it was like 80%

10:05

of trading days. It was

10:08

ridiculous. So if you're if you're

10:10

gonna make big VIX history

10:12

pronouncements. Make sure that you're

10:14

comparing apples to apples. And

10:16

I know we've had different

10:18

fixed calculations in the past

10:20

as well, which I think

10:22

have a minor impact on

10:24

some of those all-time statements

10:26

people like to make. But

10:28

you really don't want, you

10:30

don't really want, you know, something

10:32

like that. You don't want to

10:35

disconnect. And they're telling me who it

10:37

is now. I guess I'm going to have

10:39

to give him a call and talk to

10:41

him about it. You are referring to some data

10:44

I was going to get to a little

10:46

bit later. Yes, our good buddy, Mr. Vixologist,

10:48

who was on the show recently. He was

10:50

on our pro Q&A as well, and some

10:52

of our chat was saying, hey, you need to do

10:54

one of your, you know, vol reviews, but for

10:56

this Q1, because there was so much going on.

10:58

And so he sent over some data. You're right.

11:00

I noticed a couple of salient data points there

11:02

that caught my eye as well. Like Vix ran

11:04

to a high of 60. So you're right, he

11:06

is pulling from a broader spectrum of data

11:08

points than perhaps you and I might refer

11:11

to here on the show. We even came

11:13

in after that, when people said Vix hit

11:15

60, we all said, you know, kind of

11:17

cool your jets. So yeah, that one, that

11:19

one, you have to kind of read between

11:21

the lines a little bit there. But I'm

11:24

glad you pointed that out, sir. Anything else

11:26

catching your eye on the ball this week?

11:28

I mean we dip below 30

11:30

finally, we did that and we

11:32

close below 30 finally and that

11:35

tends to be an indication that

11:37

you know that that happened on

11:39

the 17th. I did some I

11:41

ran some numbers on that and

11:43

it's been a good all clear signal

11:46

not for the short term but

11:48

for the long term with respect

11:50

to the S&P 500. I think

11:53

the the the win percent was

11:55

about the same was about the

11:57

same. bite on the close when we cross

11:59

from a above 30 to below 30.

12:02

And we had a streak

12:04

of 10 days or more.

12:06

It was about 50, 50

12:08

over five days, but when

12:10

you go out to three

12:12

months and six months, your

12:14

win percentage on owning the

12:16

S&P 500 after one of

12:18

those events is like 80%.

12:20

So the. Action that we

12:22

got in VIX where we,

12:24

the above 30th Street, which

12:26

lasted for 10 days when

12:28

that came to an end,

12:30

the net result has been

12:32

that we're continue to trend

12:34

a bit lower with VIX.

12:36

And that's probably the first

12:38

time you've heard me say

12:40

anything bullish in years on

12:42

this show for the stock

12:44

market, but it is longer

12:46

term bullish. I know you've

12:48

been aggressively short of late.

12:50

Has this week's developments caused

12:52

you to change any of

12:54

that, sir? I'm a lot

12:56

less short than I used

12:58

to be, but I'm still

13:00

short. I'm small short. I

13:02

know you're piling into some

13:05

very small short. You're piling

13:07

into some small caps. Is

13:09

that still the case, sir?

13:11

And I own small caps

13:13

now, yes. Man loves himself.

13:15

Some IWM. We go out

13:17

now to the shores of

13:19

Maine, where the Jovanazi compound

13:21

is holding court on some

13:23

vol. Mr. Rock lobster, sir.

13:25

Another volatile week in the

13:27

books are about to be

13:29

what was catching your eye.

13:31

He took the first part

13:33

of the week off post

13:35

Easter post post holiday So

13:37

I missed like on Monday

13:39

I came in I said

13:41

and then all of a

13:43

sudden we're down three and

13:45

a half percent I was

13:47

like what what what what

13:49

was the latest tweet and

13:51

I well that's we're gonna

13:53

get rid of J-Pow because

13:55

he's not lowering rates fast

13:57

enough so I think what

13:59

happened was was the Donald

14:01

figured out about how much

14:03

the market moves over various

14:05

things. He's like, okay, we're

14:07

just going to keep raising

14:09

terrors forever. down below 5,000.

14:11

We're going to fire Powell,

14:13

probably lose for real, probably

14:15

lose 5% market cap easy

14:18

in one day. Rates will

14:20

probably skyrocket because at least

14:22

at least he's the one

14:24

guy holding the line. So

14:26

you have like, you know,

14:28

A couple of, you know,

14:30

a couple of, I guess,

14:32

just tape bombs go off,

14:34

you know, and then volatility

14:36

goes crazy. So from what

14:38

I can tell, the tariff

14:40

war, we got a 90-day

14:42

reprieve. So you kind of,

14:44

we got the outset. I

14:46

think it's clear. You know,

14:48

you look at it, you're

14:50

like, okay, well, Trump wants

14:52

to raise tariffs and make

14:54

people pay for the global

14:56

defense. That's kind of how

14:58

I read this. The U.S.S.

15:00

cannot afford to spend a

15:02

trillion a year on defense

15:04

anymore, basically. Because, what is

15:06

it, discretionary spending has gone

15:08

up like some astronomical amount

15:10

since 2020. When they kind

15:12

of broke the budget for

15:14

COVID, I guess politicians just

15:16

figured, well, we could spend

15:18

just a little bit, a

15:20

little less than that and

15:22

look good, even though that

15:24

was literally disastrous levels of

15:26

government spending. I still think

15:29

they're trying to figure out

15:31

what happened. The Doge thing

15:33

was looking good for a

15:35

while. There was a lot

15:37

of positive, you know, let's

15:39

just call it good feelings,

15:41

maybe expectations, and the reality

15:43

is even when they identify

15:45

things that have to go,

15:47

there is very little political

15:49

will to cut spending. So

15:51

ultimately the bond market I

15:53

believe will tell the government

15:55

how much they can spend,

15:57

which is kind of how

15:59

it works. So what does

16:01

that give us? It gives

16:03

us where we've we've pushed

16:05

stocks down enough, you're down,

16:07

we're still down around 10%

16:09

yeah, I guess around 10%

16:11

from the, from the top,

16:13

from the peak. And, and,

16:15

and, but as far as,

16:17

like these big policy initiatives.

16:19

There will definitely be some

16:21

kind of tariffs, maybe 10%

16:23

across-the-board tariffs. Heck, Trump could

16:25

call it whatever he is.

16:27

We're going to charge you

16:29

guys. We're helping keep world

16:31

peace. You all got to

16:33

pay. Because nobody, apparently he

16:35

probably went around shaking the

16:37

cup in the fall or

16:39

in his last administration, and

16:42

nobody wants to pay for

16:44

the goody that they've been

16:46

getting for all these years.

16:48

You know, and nobody else

16:50

wanted to make the world

16:52

do it. The last administration

16:54

didn't want to either. And

16:56

prior ones, all the way,

16:58

you know, for the last

17:00

75 years. So Pete, you

17:02

can agree or disagree whether

17:04

that's a good idea or

17:06

not. Who knows? I don't

17:08

know if it's a good

17:10

idea. But it does appear

17:12

at least for right now

17:14

that the trade war has

17:16

kind of reached a peak.

17:18

and we could be kind

17:20

of be going back and

17:22

forth but I mean the

17:24

reality is we're not trading

17:26

below 5,000 anymore we're up

17:28

10% from the bottom and

17:30

I think the biggest the

17:32

biggest deal is a lot

17:34

of the mag seven stocks

17:36

really haven't gotten tech close

17:38

to recovering from their highs

17:40

so a lot of that

17:42

a lot of Let's just

17:44

call it a lot of

17:46

the cream of the value

17:48

came off the top. I

17:50

think stocks were pretty expensive,

17:53

you know, by whatever metric

17:55

you want to use. I

17:57

mean, Google now is probably

17:59

trading in a multiple that

18:01

in the teens, I believe.

18:03

It's been a while and

18:05

historically that's usually a pretty

18:07

good place to buy Google.

18:09

I just want to see,

18:11

yeah, like according to live

18:13

vaults, trading at a 17

18:15

PE and 18 PE. And

18:17

that's before you take out

18:19

the cash per share. So.

18:22

Things are getting back to

18:24

more reasonable valuations and can

18:26

they cut spending? I don't

18:28

hold. I think both parties

18:30

have become totally useless on

18:32

the topic now. I would

18:34

like to be pleasantly surprised,

18:37

but that as a cloud

18:39

still remains, but as far

18:41

as like peak for VIX,

18:43

I think VIX is peaked

18:45

and... Like at this point,

18:47

I'm going to be surprised

18:49

if we see over 30,

18:51

you know, at least for

18:53

this mixed cycle. I don't

18:55

see how we're going to

18:57

get above 30, you know,

18:59

I'll say 35. I don't

19:01

see how we get above

19:03

35 again. Unless, you know,

19:05

I don't know, China's not

19:07

going to stop exporting to

19:09

the US, you know, unless

19:11

they invade Taiwan, but I

19:13

don't think they're going to

19:15

do that anytime soon. So.

19:18

I think these tariffs are going to

19:20

fly at some price. They're going to

19:22

generate some kind of revenue and the

19:25

world's going to basically accept it. And

19:27

I think that's what we've got. There's

19:29

no deals. There's going to be tariffs

19:31

and people will just have to move

19:34

along from that spot. But at least

19:36

for right now, it doesn't appear that

19:38

things are getting worse. There's still that

19:41

high level, you know, the amount of

19:43

noise though is crazy still, but. Ultimately,

19:45

you know, Vix is trading 25. I

19:48

don't know if traders have the courage

19:50

to let it drop to the floor

19:52

before the weekend. There's always a weekend,

19:54

like last weekend there was some pretty

19:57

good corkers going on. But at least

19:59

at this point, we have a, I

20:01

mean, it does feel like we have

20:04

a short-term bottom kind of happened. The

20:06

markets got shaken up a little bit

20:08

and now we're looking to how to

20:10

figure out how to fix the damage.

20:13

Yes, the damage indeed. And you know

20:15

what, our good buddy Mr. Bixologist was

20:17

on the show a few weeks ago.

20:20

He's heading out to I believe his.

20:22

daughter's wedding this week so congratulations to

20:24

him but he still was kind enough

20:26

to take the time to crunch some

20:29

data for us here on the show

20:31

which Dr. Vix has proceeded to rip

20:33

apart but you know nonetheless we shall

20:36

discuss some of it here because he

20:38

took the time and it is interesting

20:40

a lot of you like to see

20:43

where we stand historically in these somewhat

20:45

unprecedented times out there. He points out

20:47

a couple of things in this tariff

20:49

tantrum of vol that he wanted to

20:52

share on the show. today. He mentions

20:54

that range from February 25th. Vix was

20:56

17.15. He says it ran to a

20:59

high of 60.13 on March 7th. Again,

21:01

we can dispute that upper ban that

21:03

had hit that day. But at the

21:05

end of the day, it was still

21:08

a big move. He puts it out

21:10

as more than 40 points in nine

21:12

days. That's only happened twice in the

21:15

history of Vix last August in the

21:17

big meltdown. And during the COVID crash,

21:19

interestingly enough, the thing that caught my

21:21

eye didn't happen. back in 2008 during

21:24

the global financial crisis. So read into

21:26

that what you will. We also had

21:28

on April 9th that 90-day pause tweet

21:31

sent VIX cash. Again, this is the

21:33

cash we're talking my heart to as

21:35

large as one-day drop in history, 19

21:38

points. And for all of you out

21:40

there who can handle percent of percent,

21:42

36% out there. We'll skip the daily

21:44

range above 20 points. I know that's

21:47

a disputed data point out there. Interestingly

21:49

enough, whether you dispute that or not.

21:51

He also mentions the only higher four-day

21:54

total for moves here. He points out

21:56

the four days he mentions here, April

21:58

7th April. 10th had a range of

22:00

about 89 points. Only group I should

22:03

say of four days that exceeded that

22:05

were two days actually during the great

22:07

financial crisis back in 2008. With one

22:10

day we had a range of more

22:12

than 40 points. Actually I take it

22:14

back the only time we had a

22:16

higher total was in 2008 with a

22:19

two-day period in 2008. So again we're

22:21

in somewhat unprecedented territory here from a

22:23

vol perspective moving up. and moving down.

22:26

He also mentions last August, Volspike. Since

22:28

then, we've seen nine days with three

22:30

standard deviation, daily changes up and down

22:33

and vol. He measures that, I should

22:35

point out, using the constant maturity VIX

22:37

futures. He has a great chart. I'm

22:39

sure if you check out Jim Substack,

22:42

he has these visuals there as well.

22:44

I encourage you to check out this

22:46

chart of the VIX 30 constant maturity

22:49

futures. It shows you all the different

22:51

standard deviation. here on this chart. Interestingly,

22:53

well, you could probably intuit this if

22:55

you've been watching the market for a

22:58

little bit now, but the day-to-day vol

23:00

of the S&P 500, a lot of

23:02

different ways you can measure that. He

23:05

measures it as the average true range

23:07

represented as a percent of SPX price.

23:09

That's also historically high levels right now.

23:11

Below one and a half percent generally

23:14

coincides with a bullish environment above one

23:16

and a half percent. Tens to coincide

23:18

with some market corrections. Levels above three

23:21

and a half percent are fairly rare

23:23

and guess what we hit just this

23:25

past week listeners yep three and a

23:28

half percent so we're in some serious

23:30

vol obviously it's coming off right now

23:32

but historically we are in some very

23:34

rarefied air which again more data points

23:37

to back up what we've been saying

23:39

on this show for a while be

23:41

judicious out there he also points out

23:44

a couple of other interpretations of this

23:46

data he says the eruption of vol

23:48

that began last August is Not, he

23:50

puts in all caps, not characteristic of

23:53

a bull market. And he talks about

23:55

people pundits saying, the move from Vicks

23:57

going above 50 and then back below.

24:00

has been followed by large positive returns

24:02

for the market. The problem with that

24:04

analysis is there's really no sample size.

24:06

It's only happened three times. The global

24:08

financial crisis, COVID and now, so it's

24:11

kind of hard to really read the tea

24:13

leaves on that one and he puts out here

24:15

as he's talking to his clients over there. at

24:17

Ballast Rock that they expect very

24:19

long-term equity market returns to be

24:21

attractive, but he also expects that

24:23

the recent earthquake as he puts

24:26

it a vol will result in

24:28

one or two more significant aftershock.

24:30

So interesting stuff. there. Check out Jim's

24:32

sub stack if you want to see

24:34

all the data. Again, very nice of

24:36

him to crunch that data for us

24:38

here, even if he couldn't be on

24:40

the show to discuss it himself. Let's

24:42

keep rolling out to the land. Oh,

24:44

the vol surface. Since we last talked

24:46

here on the show, April has rolled

24:48

off the board. May has slotted into

24:50

the pole position. And also, we're starting

24:53

to see pretty much the death of that

24:55

juicy, juicy, backwardation we've been

24:57

living in. for a while. Right now

24:59

we're still a little bit backward but

25:01

nowhere near as wild as it has

25:03

been. May since our last show down

25:06

over six points six point oh five

25:08

points to be precise and June down

25:10

a little over four, about 4.2 points

25:12

out there. And looking at the term

25:14

structure right now, it's like the highest

25:16

we get is actually, because we are

25:18

still backward, in that May future, in

25:20

nearly a 24, about a 23 90.

25:22

If we go all the way out

25:24

to December or January of next year,

25:27

you've got about a 22 even out

25:29

there. So an interesting term structure out

25:31

there. Mr. Rhodes, if you have any

25:33

other thoughts on Jim's data, feel free

25:35

to share them. And then what are

25:37

the term structure shaping up right now?

25:39

S&P versus Vix relative stuff

25:41

that he does I always

25:43

I find that very very

25:45

very interesting someone give them

25:47

a positive on that one

25:50

and I'm gonna I you know five

25:52

minutes for the program I saw

25:54

those charts so I started taking

25:56

a look at recent just the

25:59

recent data with respect to

26:01

high low close and adjusting

26:03

it for regular trading days

26:05

and you know just for

26:07

the regular session in the

26:09

US. I'm gonna I'm gonna

26:11

ship my version of that

26:13

data over to him so

26:15

he can he can have

26:17

that to use in the

26:19

future. And I admittedly it

26:21

is kind of a pain

26:23

in the butt to put

26:25

those numbers together. With respect

26:27

to the ball surface. You

26:29

know, flatness is uncertainty. I

26:31

think we are getting more

26:33

and more of a somewhat

26:35

of an all clear signal

26:37

from the financial markets, but

26:39

in and I did just

26:41

see a headline that said

26:43

Trump's Trump said he's going

26:45

to start announcing what our

26:47

what our tariff deals are

26:49

over the next three to

26:51

four weeks. I don't know

26:53

if we sit here. on

26:56

edge with kind of a

26:58

flat term structure until we

27:00

actually get the clarity. Does

27:02

that mean that, and I

27:04

know what the answer to

27:06

this question is, and it's

27:08

almost a silly question, what

27:10

does that mean that we're

27:12

not going to hear anything

27:14

that might affect the markets

27:16

over the next three to

27:18

four weeks until we start

27:20

getting those announcements? I would

27:22

say absolutely not. It may

27:24

be kind of interesting after

27:26

all the world leaders are

27:28

together at the Pope's funeral

27:30

if some things come out

27:32

of that. You never know

27:34

what might happen after some

27:36

face-to-face meetings. So, although apparently

27:38

they're putting Trump on the

27:40

back row relative to other

27:42

world leaders, so maybe he

27:44

won't have a chance to

27:46

talk to anybody about it.

27:48

It's all in the symbolism.

27:50

Mr. Rocklops, your same question

27:52

for you, sir. If you

27:54

have any thoughts, you want

27:56

to share about Jim's historical

27:58

fixed data, have added it,

28:00

and then be what's catching

28:02

your eye out there in

28:05

a little bit calmer ball

28:07

surface since the last time

28:09

we got together on the

28:11

show. Yeah, I mean, I

28:13

mean, I know Jim's fixed

28:15

data, but there's like, there's

28:17

like the pre-mix, like, was

28:19

the 90s. So I think

28:21

in the 90s you had,

28:23

you know, you had a

28:25

couple of ball spikes there.

28:27

And I said VXO, gotten

28:29

to the like 50s back

28:31

then. I don't know if

28:33

Russell can look, but Pre-Vix

28:35

days. Oh, the all-time high

28:37

on VXO is 150. Right,

28:39

but that was like, and

28:41

that was in 87. I

28:43

know that was a crack.

28:45

But like, but in, but

28:47

in, but in 97 and

28:49

there's 97 and 98 both

28:51

those years, we had a

28:53

couple like, you remember like

28:55

when long-term capital collapsed? Yeah.

28:57

You know, I could swear,

28:59

I mean, again, I wasn't

29:01

trading, there was no vix

29:03

them, but I could tell

29:05

you like volatility was sky

29:07

freaking high. And that was.

29:09

We still had three years

29:11

of a bull market left

29:14

after that. So, I mean,

29:16

there can be things that

29:18

make volatility go up in

29:20

a bull market. But anyway,

29:22

so I would look at

29:24

like to grab the VxO

29:26

data. Maybe you could do

29:28

a rebuttal piece to that.

29:30

That's grabbing some of the

29:32

eyes in the 90s using

29:34

VxO. I'm digging through my

29:36

old CBO information where I

29:38

have all the old VXO

29:40

data and I'll see what

29:42

I can come up with.

29:44

So, you know, and that's

29:46

even in like, yeah, because

29:48

Vix kind of came around

29:50

what, in 2000 and one

29:52

of the first Victor, well,

29:54

the futures 2004, the options

29:56

in 2006. Okay, yeah, so

29:58

I mean even like you

30:00

didn't even have two you

30:02

know, there was there was

30:04

definitely some volatility in the

30:06

90s and obviously in the

30:08

80s. So we had a

30:10

couple of pretty good bull

30:12

markets. going. Anyway that's that's

30:14

all I would say there

30:16

on that score is that

30:18

I think it could happen

30:20

so what's going on now

30:22

is again there's there's a

30:25

wrestle to get interest rates

30:27

down to slow things down

30:29

and any like again I

30:31

don't know if this is

30:33

the right plan or this

30:35

is going to work. That's

30:37

what's currently being bandied about

30:39

at this point. So we'll

30:41

see we'll see we'll see

30:43

how it goes as far

30:45

as the term structure goes.

30:47

It's definitely it has flattened

30:49

up a lot. Let's see

30:51

here and I'm just looking

30:53

now. Yeah,

30:55

I mean it's your we are

30:57

now we're two points back to

31:00

front and Vix is just above

31:02

25 so it doesn't want to

31:04

quite give it up here at

31:06

the end of the day, but

31:08

I will say though Nine day

31:10

Vix is now running Let's see

31:12

here 2550 so this has been

31:14

this is the closest the two

31:16

have been And I like that

31:18

as an indicator. This is the

31:20

closest they've been in in three

31:23

weeks. Since that faithful April 3rd

31:25

day, whatever, what is it, Independence

31:27

Day or Freedom Day or what

31:29

do they call it? Whatever day

31:31

that was invoked. And generally when

31:33

Vivix dips below or nine day

31:35

volatility dips below vix below vix,

31:37

dips below or nine day volatility

31:39

dips below vix below vix, or

31:41

gets You want to put your

31:44

bullish hat on and you want

31:46

to put your shirt ball hat

31:48

on. and lean and lean that

31:50

way pretty hard. But what do

31:52

I know? I've just been watching

31:54

these dumb indicators for the last

31:56

four or five years. Once I

31:58

discovered them, they're pretty cool. So

32:00

it would not surprise me to

32:02

see, you know, to see that

32:04

it doesn't, it's not like we

32:07

have to head back up to

32:09

6,000 anytime soon. It's just that

32:11

volatility just. You know, slowly goes

32:13

down when the market kind of

32:15

goes nowhere. It can certainly happen.

32:17

So just be mindful of that

32:19

fact. But I think a lot

32:21

of puts now, 20 puts, 21

32:23

puts, 22 puts, all those kind

32:25

of puts have a new, you

32:27

know, a new level of value.

32:30

I think one of Russell's own.

32:32

stats is 18 vics is kind

32:34

of I think the market spends

32:36

on half the time above 18

32:38

and half time below 18 so

32:40

we spend spending a lot of

32:42

time above 18 this year. Say

32:44

it could happen that we could

32:46

spend a little time below 18

32:48

it could happen. So that gravitational

32:51

pull is hard toward the middle.

32:53

It is not possible. We find

32:55

ourselves right now. You can't be

32:57

below 18. It's not, it's not

32:59

physically possible for Vicks. Can't do

33:01

it. People were trained, we just

33:03

talked about last week on the

33:05

show, or two weeks ago, 16

33:07

puts for 12 cents in June.

33:09

So that seemed like a Herculean

33:11

move, not quite as Herculean right

33:14

now, as we're looking at Val

33:16

out there. Speaking at Val, let's

33:18

do that right now. Let's go

33:20

look at the Mother Ship, that's

33:22

going to look at the Mother-

33:24

The ADV is still 1.1 million.

33:26

That's pretty much unched from where

33:28

it was two weeks ago. So

33:30

no big change there. We have

33:32

been rocking and rolling enough to

33:35

maintain that ADV. Even if today's

33:37

looking somewhat light, 409,000 contracts on

33:39

the table, break all that down

33:41

in a second. But before we

33:43

do that, let's go out to

33:45

our proprietary T. M. Vix. Top

33:47

10 indicator. What's a... showing us

33:49

right now, listeners, well, if you're

33:51

all jazzed about four puts in

33:53

the top 10, then you're a

33:55

happy camper out there, listeners. All

33:58

right, two, number 10 listeners, what

34:00

does it cost us these days?

34:02

What does it cost us to

34:04

break into the top 10 out

34:06

here in Vixland? Cost you a

34:08

juicy, well, not that juicy, fairly

34:10

light actually, by way of comparison.

34:12

162,000 contracts. That's what it costs

34:14

to listeners to break into the

34:16

top 10. That gets us to

34:18

our old pal, the June Pars.

34:21

June Pars. Did you have that

34:23

on your bingo card listeners? The

34:25

June 100 calls here in Vix.

34:27

Number 10. Number 9. 163 for

34:29

the May doubles. Man, we're all

34:31

over the place. June Pars, May

34:33

doubles. Nearly 50 handle range just

34:35

in the first two. Contracts here,

34:37

May doubles, 163 number nine. Number

34:39

eight, 178 of the May 20s.

34:42

Now you're talking 80 handles. A

34:44

lot of living being done, just

34:46

in the bottom three of our

34:48

top 10. Number seven, the first

34:50

of our four Waldo contestants this

34:52

week. 181 for the June 16

34:54

puts. What I was just talking

34:56

about. They traded for 12 cents.

34:58

Did you buy some of those?

35:00

We were talking about those. I

35:02

think it was actually last week.

35:05

We did a flash pool about

35:07

that. We did a flash. We

35:09

did a flash pool. Number five,

35:11

197 of the May Tertifives. Number

35:13

four, 211 of the May 20

35:15

puts. Probably if you gotta pick

35:17

one, obviously it's probably one of

35:19

the better strikes on the board

35:21

here, especially when you compare it

35:23

to number three, 218 of the

35:25

May 17 puts. I guarantee you

35:28

if you like the 17s, you

35:30

gotta love the 20 puts. Number

35:32

two, we're back at it, 243

35:34

of the May 75s. We're going

35:36

to come back to the May

35:38

75 in a second, listeners, and

35:40

then number one, four, 27 of

35:42

the August 42 halves. That is

35:44

your big dog in the Vix

35:46

yard right now, a listener. But

35:49

you know what? They don't get

35:51

much bigger than Dr. Vix. time

35:53

to explore his yard known around

35:55

town as Russell's weekly run down.

35:57

Now Russell's weekly run down. Now

35:59

Russell's weekly run down. All right

36:01

well it was a quiet week.

36:03

It was a very quiet week

36:05

actually. I've only got a couple

36:07

of traits to talk about, which

36:09

is good because I think we're

36:12

kind of we're kind of running

36:14

behind anyway. So Monday, Monday, Monday.

36:16

Vix was at 33 and a

36:18

quarter. Somebody sold 1,500 of the

36:20

April 23rd, 21 calls for 1174,

36:22

and bought 1,500 of the April

36:24

23rd, 22 calls for 1076. That

36:26

is net income of 98 cents

36:28

for a trade that would pay

36:30

off, that, you know, if we're

36:32

kind of where we are at

36:35

expiration. However, And it doesn't matter

36:37

where we're at, expiration, because that

36:39

was an exiting trade. And the

36:41

entry trade was on April 3rd,

36:43

which was, I think we should

36:45

call it tarrificed, how's that? Something

36:47

like that. Just rolls off the

36:49

tongue, sir. Kind of like the

36:51

volmecatin. But they entered this trade.

36:53

They got 98 cents to get

36:56

out of it. If they'd held

36:58

it to expiration, they'd have gotten

37:00

a dollar. You know, maybe they

37:02

were concerned about a... a quick

37:04

dip in VIX, but that didn't

37:06

happen. But they're exiting a trade

37:08

where they bought the 21 calls

37:10

for $3.95 and sold the 22

37:12

calls for $3.40, and paid $0.55.

37:14

So nice trade there, actually, where

37:16

Vicks was spiking up, and they

37:19

got in, you know, got into

37:21

a trade that would pay out

37:23

as long as we were abstained.

37:25

above 22. They probably figured the

37:27

the spike was going to last

37:29

for a few weeks from the

37:31

beginning of the tariff announcements. When

37:33

they when they put that trade

37:35

on spot Vix was around 28

37:37

and the April 23rd future was

37:40

around 26. So Vix is actually

37:42

at a higher level than when

37:44

they put that trade on when

37:46

they exited it on Monday. And

37:48

then yesterday somebody and this one's

37:50

kind of interesting but you were

37:52

talking about the 16 strike this

37:54

is an entry trade because the

37:56

open interest wasn't there and somebody

37:58

sold a hundred of the April

38:00

30th 15 calls for 1170 and

38:03

bought a hundred of the April

38:05

30th 16 calls for 1074 they

38:07

took in a credit of 96

38:09

cents in order to make money

38:11

off this trade they need if

38:13

they hold it to settlement they

38:15

need big settlement to be below

38:17

fifteen ninety six uh... i i

38:19

i know the way i can

38:21

make sure that that doesn't happen

38:23

is i could do a really

38:26

low guess for the uh... for

38:28

the crystal ball uh... just to

38:30

ruin this trade for them but

38:32

i i just don't see i

38:34

i don't see how someone would

38:36

expect vix to run down to

38:38

the mid teens that quickly You

38:40

know, are we going to get

38:42

world peace and everything else early

38:44

next week? I just don't think

38:47

so. But you know, we are

38:49

going to get listeners because we

38:51

just crossed that magical threshold yet

38:53

again. So they are they are

38:55

beaten down the door of the

38:57

of the green room. They want

38:59

to come out north of 25

39:01

listeners. It is time to welcome

39:03

back on our old pal the

39:05

logins for a little bit of

39:07

the danger zone. Let's see how

39:10

he's cooking. Oh, there he is.

39:12

All right. He was already playing

39:14

he wanted he wanted us to

39:16

get our money's worth He said

39:18

you paid to fly me out

39:20

here You getting a little dangerous

39:22

on there you go everybody who

39:24

was all excited. I think even

39:26

our buddy Vixologist was all fired

39:28

up about about it earlier this

39:30

week. So people, people tune in

39:33

for the logins. We get it.

39:35

So there you go. A little

39:37

bit of a flavor for you,

39:39

listen, as you break down the

39:41

vol action, such as it is

39:43

in Vicksland this week, listeners. Today,

39:45

not exactly that spicy, as you

39:47

said, 409,000 contracts. The big dog

39:49

out there today, 83,000 of the

39:51

May 75. Remember I said we're

39:54

coming back to that strike. They

39:56

traded all in one block. 83,464

39:58

of the May 75 calls. Listeners

40:00

for a whopping 16 cents. Now

40:02

those of you out there who

40:04

have a little bit longer memories

40:06

will probably realize that's probably the

40:08

unwinds of a good chunk of

40:10

that mega stupid. We first started

40:12

talking about. A couple of months

40:14

ago, I think it was March

40:17

4th and 5th, when they started

40:19

piling in to this size May

40:21

upside. It was that five, six

40:23

leg Vic Stupid, our buddy Mr.

40:25

Flowmaster has been tracking it. They

40:27

put it on, it was like

40:29

they were slowly unwinding it a

40:31

bit, started taking some off earlier

40:33

in, actually right around tax day,

40:35

started taking some off, it seems

40:37

like, on these 75, and taking

40:40

some off, it looks like again

40:42

today. So we put it out

40:44

to you folks, just for fun,

40:46

because it's kind of a quiet

40:48

day. May 75, 16 cents at

40:50

that price. Are you a buyer

40:52

or a seller or audience? Two

40:54

thirds of you, almost 61 and

40:56

a half percent, say you want

40:58

to buy them. A 38 and

41:01

a half percent, say you want

41:03

to sell them. I get it.

41:05

It's kind of hard just to

41:07

sell naked options out there. But

41:09

for what it's worth, our folks

41:11

still want to buy those bad

41:13

boys. Are you down for those

41:15

listeners? Number two today 30,000 of

41:17

the May 19 have put so

41:19

we fall off a cliff quite

41:21

a bit listeners Let's get out

41:24

to Thursday's flow shall we listeners

41:26

and four hundred eighteen thousand on

41:28

the tape yesterday as well So

41:30

not a banger day yesterday either

41:32

the big dog 30K of the

41:34

May 35s out there probably by

41:36

number two 17,000 of the May

41:38

45s and just for fun 14,000

41:40

of the May 65s and just

41:42

for fun 14,000 of the May

41:45

65 of the May 65s so

41:47

we got some funk going on

41:49

there and May yesterday, Wednesday 684

41:51

on the tape, so a little

41:53

bit more active. The big dog

41:55

on Wednesday, 59,000 of the May

41:57

25 calls, listeners, followed by number

41:59

two, 40, almost 41,000 of the

42:01

May 90s, worth noting those were

42:03

closing. They may have been part

42:05

of the super stupid as well,

42:08

how to go check, but there

42:10

was a whole mess of May

42:12

upside in that trade. Nonetheless, taking

42:14

off about 41,000 of the May

42:16

90s. out there on Wednesday Tuesday

42:18

656 on the tape the big

42:20

dog 39,000 of the May 40s

42:22

follow by number two 34,000 of

42:24

the May 21 puts I'm kind

42:26

of just rolling through these listeners

42:28

because we are kind of coming

42:31

up against it already and Monday

42:33

Monday listeners 573. So overall, not

42:35

the most active of weeks out

42:37

there on the VIX options front.

42:39

You might expect after a week

42:41

like this to the ADB to

42:43

start coming in. We'll see what

42:45

that happens next week. 573 on

42:47

the tape on Monday. The big

42:49

dog such as it was on

42:52

Monday, 35,000 of the June 50s.

42:54

Let's get on out now to

42:56

the land of inverse volesvix. Been

42:58

an interesting product. to watch and

43:00

to trade and to have in

43:02

your back pocket for a rainy

43:04

day and a lot of our

43:06

listeners on the pro side were

43:08

buying it or they were selling

43:10

puts to get into it. I

43:12

think most of you probably got

43:15

put in which case you're probably

43:17

happy right now because that's mix

43:19

12 and a quarter up about

43:21

one and a half points out

43:23

there listener. So again a good

43:25

little do especially if you were

43:27

selling some puts to get in

43:29

because you got paid to get

43:31

in and now you're rallying out

43:33

there. So you can't be too

43:35

mad at that. climbing up a

43:38

bit up to 34,000. That's good

43:40

to see. We were getting down

43:42

to 10,000 or below and that's

43:44

kind of unsustainable. So good to

43:46

see that the options flow is

43:48

getting out there. If you're wondering

43:50

what is the big dog position

43:52

in Essex right now, it's about

43:54

13,000 of the May 15 calls,

43:56

which doesn't seem... like that bad

43:59

of a level right now. Let's

44:01

look really quickly, see if we

44:03

can pull it up. Listen to

44:05

this. Ask Vix just to see

44:07

when they started opening some of

44:09

these bad boys and at what

44:11

price. Looks like they started putting

44:13

them on on April 7th when the spot

44:15

was 13 and a quarter. These options were

44:18

trading for around a buck 74. So they

44:20

got in a little early. They're kind

44:22

of... They're kind of wearing

44:24

it probably on those right now,

44:27

but you know in time they

44:29

might see SVX tick back up

44:31

out there and of course Mr.

44:33

Dr. Vix's favorite V yield 2320

44:35

up 1.3 points here on Oh, I

44:37

should say in the last two weeks

44:39

since our last show all right, Mr.

44:41

Dr. Vix Let's talk a little inverse

44:44

of all what's catching your eye in

44:46

SVix or your newly beloved

44:48

V yield Nothing terribly excited, exciting

44:50

has happened in either of

44:52

them. I'm feeling more comfortable

44:54

owning both of them since

44:56

we're getting a flattening of

44:58

the term structure. You know,

45:00

the inversion has not done

45:02

any favors for my girl

45:04

aspects. And I've just kind

45:07

of been sticking it out with

45:09

a small position for right now, waiting

45:11

for it to get back on track.

45:13

I might... I might sell some puts

45:15

if we get any sort of dip

45:17

in it once again, if we get

45:19

another volatility event, but for right now

45:21

I'm just kind of, I'm very status

45:23

quo across the board and have very

45:26

little exposure because I just, I'm not

45:28

sure what's next right now. I know

45:30

that's not very helpful, but I'm just

45:32

not sure what's next right now. Yeah,

45:34

this bee yield, it's been hard to

45:36

get two jazzed up about it when

45:38

we've had some of the... Most active most

45:40

volatile markets any of us have ever

45:42

seen and V yield not exactly lighten

45:44

the world on fire to the upside

45:47

of the downside Which I guess is

45:49

part of the point? But if you come

45:51

into a muted product again that kind of

45:53

gets into the UVX Y versus UVX debate

45:55

all over again Yeah about a month ago

45:57

was 25 and a third it dipped down

45:59

to 20 146 on April 8th, and

46:01

it's been kind of slowly climbing

46:03

its way back to 23 20

46:06

right now. So, not the most

46:08

scintillating of products, but maybe if

46:10

that excites you, maybe beyield. Is

46:12

your huckleberry? Mr. Rocklops. Anything catching

46:14

your eye in the world of

46:16

inverse of all? But how long

46:18

is gonna I like just as

46:20

fix was just 24 bucks like

46:22

I think like I feel like

46:25

it was a month ago So

46:27

it is a long slog to

46:29

get back to that level. Yes

46:31

on March 25th It was $24

46:33

now even if Vix goes back

46:35

to whatever 14 SVix will not

46:37

get it will take forever to

46:39

get back up there probably three

46:42

three four months It just, it

46:44

tends to go up a lot

46:46

slower than it goes down. Kind

46:48

of like the, you know, probably

46:50

do better, I think you probably

46:52

do better shorting VXX right now

46:54

than be in long SVix. From

46:56

a performance point of view. Although,

46:58

you know, you could probably, let's

47:01

see, if you short one VXX

47:03

and buy five SVix. It might

47:05

work. It will start performing better

47:07

once the curve, at least a

47:09

flat curve is not so disastrous

47:11

for it. But, you know, it

47:13

is pecking away today, even though

47:15

the Donald just said, he ain't

47:17

dropping any Chinese tariffs unless they

47:20

give him something. So, anyway, the

47:22

news, the newsfeed bomb war continues.

47:24

You know, I was going to

47:26

send Kenny and his team back

47:28

to the Green Room, but our

47:30

chat just pointed out, this might

47:32

be our last log-in's appearance for

47:34

the year, or at least... quite

47:37

some time. So if that's the

47:39

case, we gotta let them have

47:41

one more run. So go ahead.

47:43

Kenny and Company, you can accompany

47:45

us through through UVICS, 45 and

47:47

a half, down 27.3 points since

47:49

our last show two weeks ago.

47:51

I know for a lot of

47:53

you though, you were setting up

47:56

on the 40 striking below and

47:58

stuff. So even that. Massive move

48:00

was not enough to get you

48:02

there, certainly by April expiration. I

48:04

know some of you were feeling

48:06

that pain. It's a hard beast

48:08

to time you, Vix, I get

48:10

it. So yeah, it looks like

48:12

some... I looked at the OI,

48:15

a lot of money went to

48:17

die on that UVX downside and

48:19

it was not cheap out there

48:21

at the end of the day.

48:23

Today, I'm not lighten the world

48:25

on fire, 13,000 contracts, but then

48:27

again, look at the ADV, it's

48:29

only 17,000, so from that perspective,

48:32

it's actually a decently active, let's

48:34

throw UVX on there, 30 down

48:36

about 8,000 out there. And if

48:38

you're wondering what the big dog

48:40

position is out there in UVX,

48:42

why it's the June 34th, 14,000

48:44

of those bad boys. And in

48:46

UVX, it is the one puts,

48:48

5,800 of those. I think those

48:51

are, those are pre-reverse split back

48:53

to the old days when we

48:55

were trading three and a half,

48:57

three and a quarter listeners. Mr.

48:59

Rowe, is anything catching your eye

49:01

in UVX or UVY? And we

49:03

can throw VXX in there if

49:05

you had a 65. on the

49:07

tape today though, so it needs

49:10

to get its butt and gear

49:12

from an overall volume. We'll see

49:14

if it's done any, but that's

49:16

done a little bit better since

49:18

we first racked at the beginning

49:20

of the show. Now it's up

49:22

to 43,000. That's a little bit

49:24

more respectable out there. Mr. Rhodes,

49:27

anything catching your eye in UVX

49:29

or UVXY or VXX? I've continued

49:31

to do my UVX thing and

49:33

then, you know, okay, happy with

49:35

it. I've got to update and

49:37

what I do for those if

49:39

for those if there's any... new

49:41

listening. I typically buy UVIX on

49:43

Friday afternoons and sell it first

49:46

thing on Monday mornings hoping for

49:48

some some weekend volatility and even

49:50

looking at VXX which has a

49:52

lot more history to work with

49:54

it. It looks like this is

49:56

a strategy that that does well

49:58

if you just stick with it

50:00

over time. When I find those

50:02

things I'll trade them for a

50:05

while and then I'll go back

50:07

and I'll do the back test

50:09

and make sure the back test

50:11

is matching up. done that the

50:13

back test is matched up fairly

50:15

well with my executions as long

50:17

as I'm not getting cute execution

50:19

wise so I got to share

50:22

a got to share where we

50:24

are with that an update on

50:26

that in the near future. You'll

50:28

be happy to know I was

50:30

doing options boot camp yesterday with

50:32

that buddy Mr. Passarola and we

50:34

both hit upon independently that your

50:36

little secret weekend uvicks trade is

50:38

really the only legitimate use case

50:41

we've ever seen for a market

50:43

on close order both of us

50:45

I've never I've never seen for

50:47

a market on close order both

50:49

of us I've never understood the

50:51

existence the point of that order

50:53

type until I stumbled across that

50:55

use case and I was like

50:57

oh this actually makes sense for

51:00

a market on close or preferably

51:02

a kind of funny Mr. So

51:04

you were invoked yesterday on Options

51:06

books yet. And in a positive

51:08

way, unlike beaten up on somebody.

51:10

You're right. Just one of my

51:12

running jokes, and it's not a

51:14

good joke anymore, used to be,

51:17

the only reason you would want

51:19

to own one of those ETS

51:21

is if you knew the day

51:23

before that Putin was going to

51:25

invade a neighbor. Used to use

51:27

that on a running basis like

51:29

a decade ago. Now you can't

51:31

use it anymore. Can't really use

51:33

that one anymore. No you can't.

51:36

As we keep on rolling and

51:38

we time to dive into the

51:40

crystal ball. It's time to appear

51:42

into the future and reveal what

51:44

the volatility gods hold in store.

51:46

It's time to look into the

51:48

crystal ball. All right, everybody, welcome

51:50

to the Crystal Ball. And of

51:53

course, our last show was two

51:55

weeks ago out here, listeners. So

51:57

the 17th was the day we

51:59

were guessing for, which Vic closed

52:01

at a 2965, which the meatball

52:03

wasn't that far away, 31.13. It

52:05

was myself, it was the meatball,

52:07

it was Dr. Vix, and it

52:09

was Mike Deaver. and from Brandy

52:12

Wine. He was at a 27,

52:14

Russell's at a 2569. I was

52:16

at a 33-29. So the meatball

52:18

was the closest, but no cigar.

52:20

And as of right now, listeners

52:22

coming into the end of the

52:24

show, where are we hanging out?

52:26

2648. Oh, getting a little bit

52:28

of spice bag. I guess that's

52:31

where you're talking about with Trump

52:33

spooking people again. Getting a little

52:35

bit of juice back out here

52:37

in the vol space, but Mr.

52:39

Doctor, I should say Mr. Since

52:41

your compatriot was the closest, you

52:43

got the fun of going first.

52:45

What are you feeling for this

52:48

time next week, sir? I'm going

52:50

to say next week, 2222. Interesting,

52:52

interesting. Also interesting. Also interesting as

52:54

it seems like the whatever green

52:56

we had on the screen is

52:58

kind of going the way the

53:00

dodos. Like Trump, as he has

53:02

wanted to do with a tweet,

53:04

spooking people. And Mr. Rock Lobster,

53:07

if folks want more Rock Lobster

53:09

goodness, where should they go? Yeah,

53:11

go to option pit.com. Click on

53:13

any of my products and earn

53:15

while you learn. Learn how to

53:17

trade options. It's possible. If people

53:19

teach you how to trade, put

53:21

your trades on me. You have

53:23

some volatility edge when have a

53:26

little bit more positive carry and

53:28

you have positive carry, positive curvature.

53:30

It's a great thing to learn

53:32

how to do. Give it a

53:34

try. Optionbit.com. Check them out option

53:36

pit.com I was the next closest

53:38

so I shall go next I'm

53:40

feeling I don't know things might

53:43

get a little bit spicy We

53:45

were at 25 a few minutes

53:47

ago then about 26 and a

53:49

half right now I think we

53:51

might be able to add on

53:53

about another point on our show

53:55

last next week I should say

53:57

maybe another tweet comes out right

53:59

as we're doing the show I'm

54:02

gonna say 2749 for this time

54:04

next week So we got over

54:06

five, about five and a quarter

54:08

point range. Mr. Rhodes, are you

54:10

going in the middle? You're going

54:12

somewhere way outside. I'm going to

54:14

be completely honest. I was going

54:16

to do 22, 26. He scums

54:18

you. Somebody beat me to that?

54:21

Somebody 2569. Oh, that's a that's

54:23

a big change. There you go.

54:25

I'll go in the middle then.

54:27

2569 for Dr. Vix. What is

54:29

your prognostication? Listen, send it into

54:31

us today via social media questions

54:33

at the Options Insider.com. If you

54:35

follow us on any of those

54:38

platforms, if you're hanging out on

54:40

the live chat, get it in

54:42

there, we got some 23 handle,

54:44

a 19 handle from the Queen,

54:46

1947. A interesting year, is it

54:48

a good vol? Can we break

54:50

a 20 handle by this time

54:52

next week? That would be wild.

54:54

Get your VXX shorts and other

54:57

vol fades in if that is

54:59

the case. 25, 7, we got,

55:01

we're all overplays, which makes it

55:03

fun, listeners. If you're in the

55:05

live chat, obviously get your prognostications

55:07

in as well. If you come

55:09

close, you too can win. Fabulous

55:11

prizes. We're just giving prizes away,

55:13

left, right, and center. And Mr.

55:16

Rhodes, if folks want to check

55:18

you out over there on the

55:20

sub stack, where should they go?

55:22

What should they do? But the

55:24

Substacks my name I'm just not

55:26

a marketing person at all the

55:28

Substacks you know under my name

55:30

Russell Rhodes dot Substak.com The place

55:33

to really find anything that I'm

55:35

ever doing is my my Twitter,

55:37

which is at my full name

55:39

Russell Rhodes R-H-O-A-D-S There you go

55:41

full name two S's two S's

55:43

two L-H-O-A-D and since he sent

55:45

in such great data that Russell

55:47

promptly tore apart, let's give a

55:49

plug for a good buddy, Mr.

55:52

Vixologist as well, find him over

55:54

there on the old Twitter's at

55:56

Vixologist all one word. I don't

55:58

have the link or the name

56:00

of his sub stack or I

56:02

would plug it out there as

56:04

well, but check him out over

56:06

there on the Vix, he's always

56:08

tweeting great stuff out there. And

56:11

that's gonna do for us here

56:13

on the on-demand side. If you're

56:15

listening on the podcast front, that

56:17

will conclude your broadcast week with

56:19

us. I want to thank you

56:21

for joining us in this very

56:23

tumultuous week. If you're hanging out

56:25

on the pro, stay tuned. I'll

56:28

be coming back instantaneously. No wait

56:30

for you folks. No rest for

56:32

me. Right into the oddities madness

56:34

listeners. Should be a fun time

56:36

for us. So stay tuned for

56:38

that. If you want to check

56:40

out what we're talking about. The

56:42

Options Insider.com/pro is the place to

56:44

go to learn more. Come back

56:47

on Monday We'll see if the

56:49

rock lobster can continue his trivia

56:51

victory streak or if Uncle Mike

56:53

can battle back on the option

56:55

block on Monday all the way

56:57

through to next Friday another episode

56:59

volatility views Stay safe out there

57:01

everybody You're listening to the Options

57:04

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57:06

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57:08

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