0:00

Cashing Out on vson the Sports

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Betting Network. Scott

0:08

Sidenberg back here with you.

0:10

It's cashing out here on vs IN the Sports

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Betting Network, always on x formerly

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Twitter at Scott's on air at

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VSIN Live, continuing to break

0:18

down the Week five NFL

0:21

Slayton. We talked about the over

0:24

in the Jaguars game against

0:26

the Colts, and this is something that I

0:28

think even though

0:30

we have a Colts team without their

0:33

starting quarterback, we have Joe Flacco,

0:35

and without their running back

0:38

in Jonathan Taylor, you know Trey Sermon

0:40

is probably gonna be the lead guy. I still

0:42

think we have an opportunity here for points.

0:44

First off, we always have to check the weather

0:47

in Jacksonville because we

0:49

need to know if it's going to rain or not. Right

0:52

now, we see weather for someday

0:55

does have a kind

0:57

of precipitation here.

0:59

So see right now

1:01

total is at forty five and a half.

1:03

Looks like it's holding steady at forty five and a half, so

1:05

we haven't had movement either

1:08

way. Hourly forecast

1:10

for Jacksonville, Florida.

1:14

Is seventy six.

1:16

It's good three am, four

1:18

am, nothing five, So.

1:20

We got rain early in the morning, and

1:23

by the time this thing kicks off, we

1:25

got nothing. Eighteen percent chance,

1:27

fourteen percent chance. Precipitation feels

1:31

like eighty two degrees, seventy seven degrees.

1:33

So I don't think I'm worried about rain here. I

1:36

don't think I'm worried about any precipitation in Jacksonville,

1:39

because that's the first concern. You always got to look at the weather.

1:42

Now, let's look at these defenses. Jacksonville

1:45

is the third worst defense

1:48

EPA against the pass, third

1:52

worst behind Washington

1:54

and the Rams.

1:57

Right now, so

1:59

we know that again you can

2:01

attack them through the air. And

2:04

when Joe Flacco came into the game last

2:06

week for the Colts, boy,

2:09

it just it seemed like their offense completely

2:11

opened up. Flacco

2:14

sixteen of twenty six one

2:16

hundred and sixty eight yards and two

2:18

touchdowns against the

2:21

Pittsburgh Steelers. And

2:23

we already know that Shane

2:26

Steichen's aggressive when it comes to the play

2:28

calling, like this Colts team does

2:31

want to push the ball down

2:33

the field in terms of like the

2:36

passing offense for the Indianapolis

2:39

Colts. Now, this is this

2:42

is taking into

2:44

account obviously all the

2:47

games, all the snaps with Anthony

2:50

Richardson and Joe Flacco.

2:52

But in terms of their offense, they

2:55

are sixth fifth in the NFL.

2:57

Fourth, excuse me, in yards per

2:59

play, they have

3:01

the same amount of yards per play as

3:03

the Washington Commanders, a team that

3:05

we are gushing over how

3:08

good their offense is, scoring every

3:11

time they touch the football. So

3:15

we're talking how amazing

3:18

this Washington offense is. They're six point

3:20

one yards per play. The Indianapolis

3:22

Colts are six point one yards

3:24

per play, and that was with Anthony

3:26

Richardson turning the football over.

3:29

Now we got Joe Flacco, who last week

3:32

was great pushing the ball. If

3:35

we look at week four and

3:38

we look at yards per play, last

3:41

week they were five

3:43

point six, so a little below their average. But

3:46

again you go up against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

3:50

But throwing the ball wise passing

3:53

yards per play, they're

3:56

seven point one, ninth

3:58

in the NFL over overall

4:02

ninth in the NFL. Pretty

4:05

darn good. And

4:08

I think they're gonna be able to attack this

4:11

Jacksonville defense, and

4:13

I think Jacksonville is gonna be able to have success.

4:16

This is you never want

4:18

to call games must wins, because

4:21

it's not a must win unless you're mathematically

4:24

eliminated. But

4:26

in terms of where this season is

4:28

going for the Jacksonville Jaguars, you

4:31

have a head coach that is the favorite to be the first

4:33

head coach fired in Doug Peterson. You

4:36

are about to head out to London for

4:38

two straight weeks. This

4:40

game is a game that you got to win. You're

4:43

zero to four, the season is getting away from you, and

4:45

you've got history on your side because

4:49

the Jaguars have

4:52

a great success against the Colts in

4:55

the last twenty years. It's

4:58

the most profitable opponent. Trevor

5:01

Lawrence is five and one ats against

5:05

the Colts at home. He's three and oho both

5:07

straight up in ats against the Colts.

5:11

He's covering by twenty three points per game. I

5:14

took Jacksonville in the contest. Jacksonville

5:16

is my lean on the side here in this one. But

5:18

I actually like the over. I think we're gonna

5:21

see points in this game. I know

5:23

money's coming in early in the week and did push

5:25

it down, but I think we

5:27

got over. This game just screams

5:29

over to me between the Jaguars and

5:32

the Colts. So I like over forty

5:34

five.

5:34

And a half Dolphins at the Patriots.

5:37

What more can you say about this game other than,

5:40

hey, who would have thought the Patriots will be favored

5:42

against anybody this season?

5:43

And here they are? Is

5:46

it?

5:47

Actually, it's flipped. Miami is now a one

5:49

point favorite. So we had New England as a one point

5:51

favorite, and now it flips and

5:53

we have Miami as a one

5:55

point favorite. Now, this is so interesting the way

5:57

that these things happen throughout the course.

5:59

Of the week.

6:01

So the Westgate released

6:04

releases their contest lines on

6:06

Wednesdays. That's you know,

6:08

Jay Cornegey, the guys do a great job over there. And

6:11

in the Westgate contest, the

6:14

Patriots are a one point favorite over

6:16

the Dolphins. Circa,

6:18

Jeff Benson and the crew here released

6:20

their contest lines on Thursday,

6:23

and so when Circa released their contest lines,

6:26

it's a pick them. And

6:28

now as we broadcast

6:30

to you Saturday night into Sunday morning, the

6:33

Dolphins are a one point favorite over

6:36

the Patriots, and a lot of it has

6:38

to do with the Patriots injuries. Well,

6:41

it could also do with the Patriots just being a bad football

6:43

team, but it's

6:46

a it's a bad injury report for the Patriots.

6:49

So David Andrews their center. He's

6:51

done for the year. Now he goes on ir

6:54

and that's a He's not just a

6:57

big player on the field for them, but he's

6:59

like the captain of the team.

7:00

He is a leader.

7:02

Jabriel Peppers their safety is out.

7:04

He's not gonna play in this game. And

7:08

doubtful Sioni Taki

7:10

Taki linebacker, doubtful

7:13

to play. Safety Kyle Duggar

7:16

is questionable, and a whole

7:18

list of other players questionable

7:21

for the Patriots in this game. This is

7:23

a bad injury report for New England

7:26

going up against a Miami team

7:29

that needs to get

7:31

some positive vibes back. I

7:33

mean, Tyreek Hill is retweeting

7:36

things about trade rumors and he's

7:40

people are talking about, you know what is

7:43

is Miami gonna play this season or

7:45

are they gonna tank for the future? And

7:50

maybe that's something they can think about as

7:52

the season progresses, because where

7:55

is this season going for Miami? And

7:58

if Tua truly is done with

8:00

his playing career, and I don't know that to be the case,

8:03

but it could be. Don't

8:06

you have to start looking forward to the

8:08

future because it's not Skyler

8:11

Thompson, It's not Tyler Huntley as

8:13

your future. You gotta start looking forward

8:16

to the future because the window is going to close.

8:18

You paid your guys. You have all this speed,

8:21

you have all this talent on offense. The

8:25

window is going to be closed. And

8:27

for Mike McDaniel. Without

8:30

TUA, this team has no

8:33

identity. They

8:35

can't do anything offensively. They

8:37

get Odell Beckham Junior now for this game,

8:40

but I don't know how many plays

8:43

he's going to be involved in. In fact, I

8:45

would look I don't even know if the book's going to

8:47

put any props up on OBJ, but I

8:50

would look at Odell Beckham Junior. Unders

8:53

His reception prop is one and a half.

8:57

His yardage prop is eight

9:00

and a half.

9:02

I mean it's priced in.

9:04

His you know, him playing

9:06

and being limited in snaps

9:09

is priced in, which is why his reception

9:11

prop is one and a half and his yards prop is.

9:13

Eight and a half. They're basically asking you, is

9:15

Odell Beckham Junior going to catch a pass?

9:19

I don't know if he is. The

9:21

report is is that he's going to play

9:24

cool. How much is he going

9:26

to play?

9:27

I don't know.

9:28

I would look at unders in Odell Beckham

9:30

Junior, but I mean eight and a half eight

9:33

and a half yards is crazy. The under

9:35

one and a half catches minus

9:37

two thirty five. That's

9:39

how much faith that the sportsbooks

9:41

is giving into Odell Beckham Junior's playing

9:43

time here against the New England

9:45

Patriots.

9:46

We talked about the Browns and the Commanders a

9:48

lot.

9:49

It's there's so much love on Jayden

9:51

Daniels and this offense. Is it too

9:53

much love? Should they be

9:55

three point favorites over the Cleveland Browns?

9:58

Well as much as I the Commander's

10:01

offense. For me, handicapping

10:03

this game is more anti Cleveland

10:06

Browns because Deshaun Watson

10:08

has been terrible and

10:10

I don't know, and I know last week, okay, Amari

10:12

Cooper should have had that long touchdown.

10:14

I got called back for the holding, But prior to

10:16

that catch and run, Amari

10:19

Cooper looked disinterested. Dropping

10:22

that ball that led to the interception was

10:24

an absolute joke. Him

10:27

getting a procedure penalty

10:29

pre snap costing his team a big game

10:32

another joke.

10:33

I don't know if he wants Adam Cleveland or not.

10:35

But something's not right with them,

10:38

and Miles Garrett continues to play

10:41

through the injuries, and I

10:43

just wonder at one point, at what point

10:46

do we get to a situation

10:49

where Miles Garrett says, I gotta

10:51

sit this one out.

10:55

But maybe he's just gonna, you know, keep

10:57

pushing.

10:58

Through, and hey,

11:01

he thinks that the Browns he's tired

11:03

of getting. His quote was, I'm tired of getting kicked

11:05

in the teeth. That's what's been

11:08

happening with the Cleveland Browns. They've been getting kicked

11:10

in the teeth this year,

11:13

Commander. Is really the only way I can look in this game,

11:15

because I have no

11:18

confidence in the Cleveland Browns offense,

11:21

and I certainly have no confidence

11:23

in this Cleveland Browns defense, which

11:26

used to be one of the top units in the

11:28

NFL and this year absolutely

11:31

not.

11:32

Continue to break down.

11:33

The games also get into a little Major League Baseball

11:35

previe the two games coming up for tomorrow as well.

11:38

I'm Scott Sidenberger's cash Now you're on

11:40

VCND Sports Betting Network. Welcome

12:07

back to cashing out here on VS in the

12:10

Sports Betting Network. Scott

12:14

tidnerberb back with you cashing out here on VS in

12:17

the Sports Betting Network. Coming

12:19

up about fifteen minutes from now, Steve Zick two

12:21

Time Super Contest winner participant in

12:23

the Circa Football Friday Invitational,

12:25

which you can watch every Friday here on vs

12:27

IN, hosted by our very own Matt Humans will

12:30

join me, we'll get some best bets from FEZ coming

12:32

up here for your Week.

12:33

Five NFL Sunday Slate.

12:36

We are continuing to go down the line

12:38

of the games, and one game that we have not

12:41

talked about yet is the Cardinals

12:43

and the forty nine Ers. The forty nine Ers

12:45

are seven point favorites over

12:48

the Arizona Cardinals, and I

12:50

see sevens across the board with no movement

12:52

really off of that seven, there

12:55

is one seven and a half out

12:57

there. It is seven minus one twenty

12:59

here at t Circa, the total staying

13:02

below fifty though we're

13:04

at forty nine across

13:07

forty nine majority, there is forty

13:09

eight and a half. And the

13:11

fifty is a key number because

13:14

if you look at totals of fifty or more

13:16

this season, they are

13:18

four to zero to the under. If you look at totals

13:20

of fifty or more throughout

13:22

the last three seasons,

13:25

seventy one percent to the under, thirty

13:28

four and fourteen. Over the last two seasons,

13:30

sixteen and four to the under, So playing

13:32

a total under, you

13:34

know, under fifty is

13:38

really a big number. It's a big

13:40

positive trend. So I was actually

13:42

curious to see if we'd see this game

13:44

at fifty, if we'd see any game at

13:46

fifty. Closest we have right now

13:48

is this game at forty eight and a half

13:51

to forty nine, and we

13:53

have the Baltimore Cincinnati game at

13:55

forty eight and a half. Those are the

13:57

two closest games to fifty one

14:00

that I was looking towards that could be

14:02

a possible under.

14:05

It is an interesting situation

14:08

for both the Cardinals and forty nine ers

14:10

because the Cardinals are a team that is

14:12

coming off of a blowout, where the forty nine Ers

14:14

are a team that is coming off of a blowout

14:16

win. So we have a blowout winner

14:18

versus a blowout loser, and

14:21

historically, playing the blowout

14:23

loser has been a profitable

14:25

trend about sixty percent ats

14:28

the last twenty years when you just look at

14:30

a team that lost by seventeen playing

14:32

against a team that won by seventeen.

14:35

So the Cardinals do fit that system.

14:37

In fact, up on vsin dot com

14:40

in the Steve mcinnin trend article we

14:42

have a trend that is seventy

14:44

two point four percent, and

14:46

this is the last thirty games

14:48

that fit this system, and that is

14:51

a team that loses on the point spread

14:53

by thirty points or more the

14:56

next week playing as big

14:58

road dogs. So your

15:00

road dog of more than a field goal

15:03

twenty one to eight to one ATS.

15:06

So that's seventy two point four percent. That would

15:08

be where Arizona is at right

15:10

now as this big dog. And

15:12

we know, just like the Giants, that they

15:14

do fall into this whole big dog system

15:17

of you know, six or higher

15:19

point underdogs. How great they have been against

15:22

the spread this week this season.

15:25

I don't know if I like the Cardinals

15:28

here in this spot. I feel like the forty

15:30

nine ers offense is going to be able

15:32

to do some really

15:34

good things here against Arizona.

15:38

I'm just looking at the past couple of results

15:40

for the Cardinals defensively,

15:43

at least against Buffalo,

15:46

they allowed Josh Allen to

15:49

throw for two hundred and thirty two yards and

15:51

two touchdowns. James Cook rushed

15:54

for seventy one yards against them.

15:57

In their next game against the Rams,

16:00

that was a blowout win. They did a great

16:02

job in that game Stafford

16:04

threw for two sixteen but that's about it. No

16:06

one did anything. They couldn't run the football. That

16:08

was a great win for Arizona. But we knew

16:10

at the Rams that was their first

16:13

game dealing with all of their injuries.

16:15

Right, you already knew.

16:16

About Niakula, but no Cooper Cup, no Nicula

16:19

guys in there, the offensive and defensive

16:21

line issues. That was just a miserable

16:23

spot for the Rams. Against

16:26

the Lions, Jared

16:29

Goff throws for one hundred and ninety nine yards

16:31

two touchdowns, does throw an interception, but

16:33

David Montgomery runs all over them twenty

16:35

three carries, one hundred and five yards. And

16:38

then against the Commanders last week, just

16:41

absolutely embarrassed. Jayden

16:43

Daniels two hundred and thirty three yards a touchdown

16:45

and to pick Brian Robinson junior rushes

16:47

for one hundred and one yards. Cardinals

16:51

defense, I don't see

16:53

them stopping the

16:55

forty nine ers. I

16:58

can't see them stopping them at all. If

17:01

we look at just their the defense on the

17:03

season, and

17:05

we want to know, like how they've done so far defensively

17:08

in terms of their stat

17:11

ranks, well, let's look at

17:13

EPA per play on

17:15

defense this year, Cardinals

17:18

are fifth worst, fifth

17:20

worst in

17:24

terms of let's see how they do against the run,

17:28

seventh worst, and

17:31

against the pass they

17:33

are.

17:35

Sixth worst.

17:37

How are they slowing down this forty nine ers offense?

17:40

How's that going to happen? I

17:43

like the forty nine ers to cover the seven here, but

17:46

I like the forty nine ers to score more

17:48

so than obviously, if I like

17:51

the forty nine ers to cover seven, they're going to have to score a number

17:53

here. Total in this game is forty eight and a half. But

17:56

I think the forty nine ers put up points. So

17:59

if we look at the forty nine ers props here

18:02

for their team totals, let's

18:04

see we have forty nine ers at

18:09

scroll down through the book and look, let's

18:12

see. We'll pull up

18:14

a forty nine ers team total in just a second. I gotta

18:16

find it here on the book here. I think

18:19

I think that could be the way to go here for the forty

18:21

nine ers, I'm seeing

18:23

twenty seven.

18:25

Twenty eight and a half is a number I don't like.

18:27

Twenty twenty seven and a half would

18:30

be a better number, even though

18:32

I'd see minus one twenty five on over twenty

18:34

seven.

18:34

And a half.

18:36

Forty nine Ers are scoring four touchdowns in this game.

18:39

They're scoring twenty eight points. Arizona

18:41

is not going to be able to stop them. I

18:44

believe that they're not going to be able to stop them.

18:47

Arizona this year is giving up

18:49

twenty six point five points per game,

18:52

and that includes shutting

18:54

the Rams down and holding

18:56

them to ten. So think

18:59

about where this number would be if they

19:01

didn't shut the Rams down in one of the worst

19:03

injury situations that the Rams

19:06

or any team has been in this season. So

19:09

I think the forty nine ers put up points. I like

19:11

forty nine ers team total. You can get the

19:13

twenty seven and a half, I get twenty

19:15

seven and a half and go forty nine

19:17

Ers over the twenty seven and a half, lay the minus

19:19

one twenty five. That's what I see here on DraftKings over

19:21

twenty seven and a half minus one twenty five, because

19:24

that's where I think this goes. I do like the forty nine

19:26

Ers to cover the seven, but more

19:28

so because I think they score points. I

19:30

don't think the forty nine ers win this game and cover

19:32

the spread by winning fourteen

19:35

to seven, or you know, by winning twenty

19:37

one to seven or

19:39

winning twenty one to ten. No, I

19:41

think it's more like a thirty one to ten

19:43

type game, thirty one to

19:46

fourteen, thirty five to

19:49

you know, twenty. That's

19:51

that's where I see. I see the forty nine ers being able

19:53

to have a field day. Here Packers against

19:55

the Rams. We

19:57

have Kyrien Williams touchdown machine.

20:00

All he does is score.

20:00

We know that seven consecutive games going back to last

20:03

year. We have a Packers

20:05

team that looked

20:08

terrible in the first half last week against

20:10

Minnesota, but then looked great in

20:12

the fourth quarter when Jordan Love just

20:14

was playing backyard football right, throwing

20:17

the ball down the field to his receivers.

20:19

Which offense shows up for the Packers?

20:22

Is it the offense that couldn't do anything in the first half

20:25

where Jordan Love looked limited

20:27

by his injuries, or is this

20:29

the Packers offense that was able to

20:31

march down the field in the second half

20:34

against a very good Vikings

20:36

defense and if

20:38

not for some stumbles in the first half, could

20:40

have been a different story.

20:41

It could have been a different game.

20:42

Rams. Meanwhile, their defense

20:44

has been an issue. I talk about the Cardinals

20:47

not being able to do anything. Rams have allowed the

20:49

second most points per game in the NFL twenty

20:51

eight point eight EPA.

20:54

The Rams are the worst defense EPA

20:56

wise in the NFL, second

20:59

worst against the pass, and

21:02

fifth worst against the run, but overall

21:04

the worst defense in the NFL EPA

21:07

wise, How could

21:09

how could I not expect the Packers

21:12

to put up points in this game? Packers

21:15

minus three total here is

21:17

a high total. It is at

21:20

what forty nine? Says another game?

21:22

If it gets to.

21:22

The magic number of fifty, could

21:25

could could go under here the fifty, but

21:27

looking at the Packers indoors

21:31

no restrictions here.

21:32

Jordan love another game coming.

21:35

Off of the way that he played

21:37

in that fourth quarter against Minnesota. Yeah,

21:40

I would like an over on

21:43

Packers team total twenty

21:45

six and a half. Boy,

21:49

that seems good. I

21:52

feel like the Packers are scoring four touchdowns

21:54

in this game. Yeah,

21:57

Packers are passed for me on the minus three.

21:59

I want no point of the Rams' I want

22:01

no part of them defensively. Offensively,

22:03

Matthew Stafford's been sacked fourteen times

22:06

through his first four games. That's the second

22:08

most in his career through his first

22:10

four games, and according

22:13

to PFF, Rams are dead last

22:16

in pass blocking. Stafford pressured

22:18

forty two dropbacks. That's the second

22:20

most pressured pressures in the NFL.

22:24

I cannot trust them. I can't trust

22:26

this line. Packers

22:28

are passed for me, and on the total,

22:31

if it's at fifty, I'd love to go under, but

22:34

I think the Packers put up points here, just like the forty nine

22:36

ers. I just don't like betting on bad

22:38

defenses, and the Rams are a

22:41

bad defense, very

22:43

bad. Coming up next, Steve

22:46

Fezick, two time Super Contest winner, first

22:48

place Circa Football Friday Invitational,

22:50

will join me next here on VS in the

22:53

Sports Betting Network. Welcome

23:06

back to Cashing Out here on VS in the

23:09

Sports Betting Network. Scott

23:13

Sandenberg back with you here on Cashing

23:16

Out VS. In the Sports Betting Network.

23:18

Coming to you from the Circa Sports Book in downtown Las

23:20

Vegas and joining me now is two

23:23

time super contest winner and currently

23:25

the third place standing

23:27

in the Circa Football Friday

23:30

Invitational, which you can watch right here

23:32

on VSON with our very own Matt Humans. He is,

23:34

mister Steve fezik fez you dropped

23:37

from first to third in

23:39

the Friday Football Invitational.

23:42

I feel like James Kahn in the program

23:44

being asked, what, coach, why do your teams

23:46

always fade late in the year. I've

23:49

had some key injuries, and if you paid attention,

23:52

if I have a good Sunday, I still'll be a

23:54

position to go to a major bowl game

23:56

with a green jacket.

23:59

That is very true.

24:01

Speaking of injuries, there

24:03

are a ton of games that are affected

24:06

by injuries, and I want to start with

24:08

one that I think that the injuries

24:11

matter, but I still think we're gonna

24:13

get a good result in terms of points

24:15

being scored, and that's the Indianapolis

24:18

game against Jacksonville Fez. So we know that

24:20

the Colts are gonna be without their starting quarterback

24:22

Anthony Richardson, although some would argue Joe

24:24

Flacco as an upgrade to their offense, but

24:26

more importantly, I feel they are without

24:29

their running back Jonathan Taylor. Now,

24:31

in my opinion, and I've said this earlier on the

24:33

program, is that without

24:35

Jonathan Taylor and with Flacco at quarterback,

24:38

this is going to be more of a pass happy

24:41

offense going up against a Jacksonville

24:43

defense that does not do well stopping the

24:45

pass.

24:46

I think we're in for points in this game. Totals

24:48

at forty five and a half.

24:50

Yeah, I have the Jaguars in the contest because

24:52

it was two and a half and it's three in the market.

24:54

But I like the over more. What do you think of

24:56

that play?

24:57

Yeah, I think I make sure you get the key number

24:59

of forty five. My one concern,

25:02

it's funny, I'm looking at the screen. I always love playing

25:04

against a recreational book. So like Station's

25:06

casinos that caters to you know,

25:08

local Vegas.

25:11

Not professional betters, but just betters.

25:13

They have a forty five and I would be jumping

25:16

in my car, be hanging up on you, Scott. I'd

25:18

be going over and betting at over forty five. But

25:20

it's also a bet online, which is a sharp

25:23

book. So now I'm in a little

25:25

bit of a quandary there. But you're I think you're

25:27

you're handicapping is sound. Flacco's

25:29

a gunslinger. They're not going to be running the ball

25:32

Jacksonville. They've got receivers open

25:34

all over the place of Lawrence can just hit them.

25:37

So yeah, I think over

25:39

is the only way to look.

25:40

Giants are decimated by injuries as well.

25:42

No Molik Neighbors, No Devin singletary

25:44

for them as they go and take on Seattle.

25:47

We've seen the Seahawks now climb up to seven.

25:49

Seahawks are the most popular selection in

25:51

Circa Survivor, with over thirty

25:53

three percent of the entries on

25:55

the Seahawks.

25:57

That's the right play, correct, all

26:00

of.

26:00

Them are the Niners? Yeah, absolutely so.

26:02

I mean, you're never gonna get an argument

26:05

from me from taking the biggest favorite on

26:07

the block. And let's face it, Seattle

26:09

is not going to be this big a favorite the rest of the year, and

26:12

the Niners are going to be a bigger favorite. So absolutely,

26:16

if you have Seattle left to use, go ahead and use

26:18

them. Fascinating game. If

26:20

you believe in rest, this is the whole

26:22

war in sharp one oh one, you're gonna land

26:24

on the Giants because of the Giants ten days

26:26

of rest, Seattle only six after playing

26:29

a Monday night. If you believe in injuries,

26:31

you're gonna land on Seattle because the Giants

26:33

are so much more injured than Seattle.

26:36

So kind of many

26:38

NFL games you can make a case on both sides. I

26:40

think neighbors are so critical to the Giants.

26:43

I think that that's really the number one factor

26:45

here, I would only look to Seattle

26:47

at the point spread.

26:48

A game that I gave out as a teaser leg

26:51

is the Cincinnati Bengals against the Ravens.

26:53

I like pushing the Bengals up to eight and a half

26:56

because in divisional games

26:58

this is good. I always feel like it's going to be close,

27:00

especially in the AFC North, where it's

27:03

the most profitable bet over

27:05

the last six years to bet

27:08

divisional underdogs in the AFC North, more

27:10

so than any other division. Since twenty eighteen,

27:12

divisional dogs in the AFC North are covering

27:15

at sixty one percent. I like pushing

27:17

the Bengals up, But tell me of your thoughts on

27:19

this part of the handicap here. So, the

27:21

Bengals were seven and a half point favorites

27:23

over the Washington Commanders a couple

27:25

of weeks ago. The look aheadline

27:28

on the Ravens against the Commanders

27:30

for next week is Baltimore laying

27:32

six and a half. And I understand Washington

27:35

has been upgraded tremendously, so

27:37

if we factor in the Washington upgrade,

27:40

okay, I'll say that maybe it would have

27:42

been seven and a half for Baltimore. If

27:44

we don't upgrade Washington as much as we do.

27:46

So if the market's telling us that both of

27:48

these teams are essentially seven

27:51

and a half point favorites over a common opponent,

27:54

why are the Ravens two and a half point favorites

27:56

on the road in Cincinnati.

27:58

Because Cincinnati lost to Washington. But

28:00

no, you're I think it's a good comparison.

28:03

I've got the Bengals like

28:06

one point better than average team, so I still have

28:08

them above at an average. I think Baltimore four and a half

28:10

better. So on a neutral that makes it three and a half.

28:13

With home field, that makes it two and a half. And

28:15

you got a lot of comfort level because you're catching eight

28:17

and a half on the teaser. Not much comfort level

28:19

if you're betting plus two and a half. So sure, let's

28:21

tease the Bengals, who're gonna tease them with sky.

28:23

We're gonna take the Jets here so we can have

28:25

some action on the eight am game or somebody

28:27

else.

28:28

I think it's either the Jets or the

28:30

Dallas Cowboys, and the Cowboys

28:32

might not be popular because of their injuries

28:35

on defense, but I don't think justin

28:38

fields and the Steelers offense puts up enough

28:40

points to ever to really

28:42

run away from teams, and I think that Dak Prescott's

28:45

going to be able to score on Pittsburgh.

28:47

But I do I like teasing the Jets. I think

28:49

if you want that early morning action, although

28:51

it has dropped down to two, so make sure you're

28:54

playing at a book that has the two and a half because

28:56

you can get the eight and a half on the six point teaser.

28:59

I also think think the Jets cover this game out

29:01

right. There's a reason why it's gone down

29:03

from two and a half to two. I

29:06

like fading the recency bias. Everyone

29:08

seems to be in love with Minnesota

29:10

and anti Jets because of how ugly the Jets

29:13

lost West the Broncos last week. This line

29:15

opened at Jets minus two and

29:17

a half and now we're at Minnesota

29:19

minus two and a half.

29:20

It just feels like too much of an overreaction.

29:23

I agree with you, and it's the only side

29:25

I would look to is to go ahead and take the Jets.

29:28

You know, I'm staring at a betting exchange. This is fascinating,

29:30

Scott, and so right now as

29:32

we speak, I can take the Jets plus two and a half

29:35

plus one hundred. I like that bet

29:38

I can also take the vikings minus two

29:40

and a half minus one oh one. So think

29:42

about how difficult it is to win betting the

29:44

NFL minus a dollar ten.

29:47

Here's a game the market. There's only one game.

29:49

The market has spoken. It's basically

29:51

saying two and a half is the right number. But

29:54

I agree with such a big swing from what

29:56

the look at was a week ago,

29:58

I think the Jets would be the only side I get interested.

30:01

I like teasing the Jets. I like the plus

30:03

one twenty five on the Jets. I like the plus two

30:05

and a half reduced veig.

30:06

On the Jets.

30:07

Talk to me about this Buffalo Houston game

30:09

with the line flipping now and Buffalo

30:11

being a one point. Doug I

30:14

suggested that if you wanted to tease

30:16

Buffalo up one, it has

30:18

to be at the right price, so you can only do a minus

30:20

one twenty on a six point teaser.

30:22

But also it has to be at

30:24

a book that offers you.

30:25

A push is a push because

30:27

if you're teasing a team up to seven, you

30:30

want to have that push not be a loss

30:32

for you.

30:32

Would you even consider teasing a plus

30:35

one dog up to seven? Never?

30:38

Absolutely not, because I'll just use

30:40

a six and a half point teaser and get it to seven and a half,

30:42

because then I don't have to worry about the ties

30:45

rules and the whole point of teasers.

30:47

My friend Stanford Wong wrote the book Sharp

30:50

Sports Betting is an entire chapter

30:52

on this. A long teaser plus

30:54

one.

30:56

Two.

30:56

If you tease two plus ones T plus seven's

30:59

two wongs don't make a right

31:02

in that case because they're not wongs.

31:03

How long you have been waiting to make that joke, Yes,

31:07

so you're gonna make it.

31:08

You got to get it to seven and a half. But this

31:10

is very illustrative. This week there

31:12

have been multiple games the Jets, Vikings

31:15

Pin Paul Ping Pong, ping ping

31:17

pang ponging around the zero

31:20

and now, just based upon the Vagar

31:22

siaeson which way the wind it blows,

31:24

the Vikings are now the favorite two and a half. So now

31:26

the Jets of the teaser Buffalo Houston,

31:29

both teams have been favorite of the course of the week. The same

31:31

with Miami New England. I don't care what

31:33

the odds maker decide who I tease, as

31:36

soon as one of those suckers goes up and

31:38

I see am minus one and a half, I'm teasing

31:40

the other guy. So three days

31:42

ago, I would have been teasing the Texans from

31:44

one and a half to seven.

31:45

And a half.

31:45

Now I'm going to look to tease the Bills from one

31:47

and a half to seven and a half.

31:49

Same with them.

31:50

I was looking to tease Miami.

31:52

Now I'm looking to tease New England from one half to seven

31:54

a half. With the Stevenson issues, and

31:57

frankly, I like both sides of

31:59

those, just don't put them in the same teaser

32:01

together.

32:03

That makes sense.

32:04

What's your take here on the Packers

32:07

against the Rams because green

32:09

Bay looked like two different teams last

32:11

week against Minnesota.

32:13

Yeah, I think green Bay is going to

32:15

be just fine. I think you win two games with

32:17

a third string quarterback, and I

32:20

mean compare and contrast that with like a team

32:22

like the Dolphins that just can't play a lick with

32:24

their third string quarterback. I

32:27

think green Bay's headed to ten wins. I bet

32:29

green Bay yes to make the playoffs plus one twenty.

32:31

I played them over eight and a half minus

32:34

one sixty for wins over nine and a half plus

32:36

like they won twenty for wins, and

32:38

in this game, I played them minas three. I'm concerned

32:41

they've got injuries at wide receiver, but you

32:43

know what, it's not as bad as the injuries

32:45

for the Rams have it wide receiver. Lots

32:48

and lots of green Bay fans

32:50

in attendance, so no crowd advantage

32:52

other than for the Packers. Packers win,

32:55

they should be able to cover the minas three.

32:57

Yeah, a prop market. I'd look at Dontavion

32:59

Wicks wide receiver for green Bay.

33:01

He was Jordan Love's deep threat last

33:03

week, and with the team announcing

33:05

a suspension to Romeo Dubbs, it's

33:08

Jaden Reid and Wicks as the two wide

33:10

receivers for the Packers. So I would

33:12

look at a Wis prop for over with

33:14

it four and a half catches or yardage,

33:16

I would look at for sure.

33:17

The Scott Sedenberg wicker Man

33:20

of the Month.

33:22

Fez appreciate the time, good luck tomorrow

33:24

and we'll catch up soon. Thank you so much.

33:26

Appreciate you having me on Scott.

33:28

There he is Steve Fezick, two time winner of

33:30

the Super Contest, currently in third place here

33:32

in the Football Friday Invitational.

33:35

He was in first place, but he's just a winneror

33:37

two out of first place. And of course

33:39

Fez was a partner in last year's Circus Survivor

33:41

wins.

33:42

I always love catching up with him.

33:43

Coming up, we'll get to the best bets, talk little

33:46

Major League Baseball as well.

33:47

It's cashing out here on v SIN the Sports

33:50

Betting Network. Welcome

34:15

back to cashing out here on v SEND the

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35:14

Scott Sidenbergh back here with you. It's cashing

35:16

out here on VS in the Sports Betting

35:18

Network, and it is time for

35:21

VS in Daily Morning Bets.

35:24

This is Vson's Daily Morning Bets.

35:29

Now before we get into the NFL

35:31

sleep here for Week five Sunday, I want

35:33

to focus on the Major League Baseball postseason

35:36

because the National League Division Series

35:38

will resume with Game twos between the Mets

35:40

and the Phillies, the Mets having won Game one, and

35:43

the Dodgers and the Padres with La

35:45

winning Game one. The game I'm

35:47

going to target is the first game between the Mets

35:49

and the Phillies. And what did we.

35:51

See in Game one? On Saturday?

35:54

The Shadows came into play at

35:57

Citizens Bank Ballpark with a four

35:59

o'clock Eastern times start, which

36:02

is the same time that it was on Saturday

36:04

and same start time that we're going to see here

36:06

on Sunday. The Sun and Shadows

36:09

were in a precarious situation for

36:11

the batters as they were unable to

36:14

pick up the ball from the pitcher. Kyle

36:16

Schwarber hit a lead off home run for

36:18

the Phillies against the Code

36:20

Senga, who got the surprise star for the Mets, but

36:23

after that, the Phillies didn't do anything

36:25

off of Mets pitchers, at least early on,

36:28

and then the Mets certainly were unable

36:30

to put the bat on the ball against Zach

36:32

Wheeler, who went seven shutout innings

36:34

and got more swing and misses than

36:36

he had in really his entire

36:39

season average.

36:40

So I'm looking to attack the

36:43

shadows for lack.

36:44

Of a better term, and I'm going to bet

36:46

the first five innings under four

36:49

and a half runs between the Mets and

36:51

the Phillies. It's Christopher Sanchez

36:54

pitching for the Phillies and Luis Severino

36:56

pitching for the Mets.

36:57

The game total is at seven and a half.

37:00

I'm going to target the first five under four and a

37:02

half. Actually, this best

37:04

bet is going to be a combo. Some

37:07

sports books allow you to do this parlay. I

37:09

found it on MGM. You can find it whatever

37:11

sportsbook you look to play on, and

37:13

it's at plus four seventy five, at least

37:15

that's what I put it in at MGM.

37:18

The parlay is first five

37:20

innings under four and a half runs,

37:23

but the full game over seven

37:26

and a half runs, and I think

37:28

it's a situation, just like we saw on

37:30

Saturday's Game one. First five innings

37:32

will be low scoring. Teams will have a difficult

37:34

time adjusting to the sunlight and the shadows

37:37

picking up the ball from the pitchers, and

37:39

then once the ballpens get involved,

37:41

we could see some runs late in the game

37:43

and things might get out of it.

37:45

I'm not saying, well, they could get out of hand. Maybe they do, maybe

37:47

they don't.

37:47

But I like going under first

37:50

five innings four and a half runs at

37:52

minus one thirty. And then

37:55

I like the over in the game

37:57

seven and a half at minus one fifteen. But parlay

37:59

those two together plus four seventy five

38:02

kind of negatively correlated parlay,

38:04

which is where you get the most payouts. Give me under

38:06

first five innings Mets Phillies, parlayd

38:08

with the over.

38:09

Full game seven and

38:12

a half.

38:12

Now let's go to the NFL schedule, and

38:15

I'm gonna look to attack a team that

38:17

has a ton of injuries, and

38:20

that is the New York Football Giants, where

38:22

they will be without their best wide

38:25

receiver in Milik Neighbors, one

38:27

of the best wide receivers in the entire NFL, and

38:29

they will be without starting running

38:31

back Devin Singletary. Where is this

38:33

offense going to come from? Well, some would

38:36

say will be non existent. The Giants

38:38

are seven point underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks.

38:41

They are on extended rest, which

38:43

does help them in terms of preparation

38:46

for life without Milik Neighbors and Devin

38:48

Singletary, but they

38:51

have to travel to Seattle, which.

38:53

Is a tough travel.

38:55

I like taking backup running back who

38:57

is not going to backup running back. He might be splitting

38:59

care with Eric Gray in terms of

39:01

who's going to be the number one back for the.

39:03

Giants here in this game.

39:04

But Tyrone Tracy has been getting more involved

39:07

in the Giants offense. But I think specifically

39:10

in this game he's going to be involved

39:13

receiving the football because

39:15

I expect the Giants to be trailing and

39:18

if they're playing from behind, Daniel Jones

39:20

will be forced to throw and he'll

39:22

be dumping the football off to his

39:25

running back, and that running back

39:27

without Devin Singletary is going

39:29

to be Tyrone Tracy.

39:31

So give me.

39:32

Over thirteen and a half receiving

39:34

yards for Giants running

39:36

back Tyrone Tracy. Another

39:39

team dealing with injuries is the Buffalo

39:41

Bills, who will be without their number one wide

39:43

receiver Khalil Shakir when they take

39:45

on the Houston Texans. A

39:47

player that I'm looking to target here is

39:50

Curtis Samuel, who hasn't really

39:52

gotten involved in the

39:55

receiving game yet for

39:57

the Buffalo Bills, well, Josh has

40:01

his guys. He primarily

40:03

targets Khalil Shakir, and

40:06

if it's not Khalil Shakiir, it's Keon

40:08

Coleman, who we've seen take a bigger

40:10

role here in the receiving

40:12

game, and even Mac Collins has

40:14

gotten involved as well. But what

40:17

I like about Curtis Samuel is

40:19

what he has been known for in

40:21

his past, which is to be a

40:24

slasher type of player, a

40:26

guy that they just want to get the football

40:29

in his hands. If you go back and look

40:31

at what Curtis Samuel did in

40:33

his time with the Washington Commanders and

40:35

with the Carolina Panthers before then, he

40:38

carried the football a lot, not

40:40

as much as a running back, but as far as a wide

40:42

receiver is concerned, they found ways

40:44

to get him the football.

40:46

And I think that's what's going to happen.

40:47

Here with the Buffalo Bills without Khalil

40:49

Shakir. They'll utilize Keon

40:51

Coleman as a deep threat. They'll utilize

40:54

you know, Mac Hollins as a you

40:56

know, intermediate route guy. But I think Curtis

40:58

Samuel gets involved more than the offen. His

41:01

receiving prop is at thirty four and a half yards,

41:04

but his rushing and receiving combo

41:07

is at thirty five and a half yards.

41:09

I think we can see Curtis Samuel run the football

41:11

in this game. He had to carry last week for

41:14

seven yards, and I think that they're going to

41:16

try and get him involved in the offense

41:18

here and running the football might

41:20

be the way to do it.

41:21

So don't be surprised if you.

41:22

See Curtis Samuel get a carry or

41:24

maybe two in this game. And

41:27

if he does run for

41:29

ten yards or however many yards, it's

41:32

just less yards that we need from the receiving

41:34

aspect of this. So I like over

41:36

thirty five and a half combo rushing

41:38

and receiving yards for Curtis

41:41

Samuel. As far as game sides

41:43

are concerned, I do like a

41:45

couple of teasers or teaser legs,

41:48

if you will. There are two and a half point

41:50

favorites that I really love pushing up

41:52

past the key numbers of the three and seven

41:55

to the eight and a half, and

41:57

those are the New York Jets at

41:59

two and a half push up to eight and a half and

42:01

the Cincinnati Bengals push up.

42:03

From two and a half to eight and a half.

42:05

Make sure your book does properly

42:07

priced teaser, so at minus one twenty,

42:09

that's where I like to lay it. I like Jets

42:13

teased with the Bengals plus

42:15

eight and a half each. So the Jets

42:18

up from two and a half to eight and a half, Bengals

42:20

up from two and a half to eight and a half.

42:22

The Jets I think could win.

42:23

I think, first off, I think both these teams could win out right,

42:26

But I love the comfort

42:28

of having the teaser because, especially

42:30

in that Bengals game against the Ravens, I

42:33

think it's a divisional matchup

42:35

between two rivals that I

42:38

feel will play each other close. And if

42:40

you look back at the history of the past

42:42

several years of AFC North

42:44

Divisional Dogs, they've been the most profitable

42:47

division dogs out of any division

42:49

in football AFC North

42:51

Divisional Dogs, covering at sixty one

42:54

percent. So again, teasing

42:56

up the Jets from two and a half to eight and a half combines

42:58

with the Bengals two and a half

43:00

to eight and a half minus one twenty

43:03

on that two leg teaser,

43:05

and that'll do it for the v SIN Daily

43:08

Morning bets.

43:10

You can hit me up on.

43:11

Twitter at Scott's on air, sc

43:14

T T, S O, n ai R, hit

43:16

us all up on the network at v SIN

43:19

Live. The top most selected

43:21

teams in the Circa Millions Contest

43:23

the Pittsburgh Steelers minus two and a half,

43:26

Saints plus five and a half on Monday

43:28

Night against the Chiefs, Seahawks

43:30

minus six and a half against the Giants, Jaguars

43:32

minus two and a half against the Colts, and

43:35

the Vikings minus two and a half against

43:37

the Jets. Looking at my Circa

43:40

Millions entry, and I have

43:42

the Jaguars minus two and a half, the Jets

43:45

plus the two and a half, Dolphins

43:47

at a pickam Seattle minus

43:49

six and a half, and the Bears minus three and

43:51

a half. So I have some similarities

43:53

between the top most selected entries

43:56

and my five entries for

43:58

the Circa Millions contest and the

44:00

top most selected teams in the Circus Survivor

44:03

No surprise the Seattle Seahawks, who

44:06

are seven point favorites over the Giants,

44:08

and the San Francisco forty nine Ers, seven

44:10

point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals.

44:13

Thirty three point three percent of the remaining

44:15

entries on the Seahawks, seventeen

44:17

point nine percent on the forty

44:19

nine Ers. The Bears are next with seventy

44:22

four picks. That's fifteen point

44:24

four percent. Four hundred and seventy nine entries

44:27

remain for fourteen million

44:29

dollars.

44:30

You're implied entry.

44:31

You're implied value per entry right now twenty

44:34

nine, seven hundred and eighty two dollars.

44:37

Wow. I'm not one of them,

44:39

but maybe you are.

44:41

I'm Scott Siding Records cash now here

44:43

on vsin the Sports Betting

44:45

Network