0:03

Hello, and welcome to ways to change the world.

0:05

I'm Christian guru Murphy, and this is the podcast

0:08

in which we talk to extraordinary people about

0:10

the big ideas in their lives and the events

0:12

that have helped shape them. My guess this

0:14

week is very much about ideas because he's

0:17

the director of the center

0:19

right think tank onward. But

0:21

before that Sebastian Pain was

0:23

a journalist, principally for the

0:25

financial times and he's written two books,

0:28

one about the Red Wall

0:30

and how that went to the conservatives.

0:34

And another about the fall of

0:36

Boris Johnson, which is subtitled

0:38

the full story, which we can explore

0:40

a little bit. But, Seth, thank you very

0:43

much indeed for for joining us. I mean,

0:45

you you've gone from journalism into ideas

0:49

and policy. And I wonder whether

0:51

it's it's a bit of what Boris

0:53

Johnson said about leaving

0:55

journalism, which is nobody puts

0:57

statues up to journalists. I

1:00

think the reason that I made the jump first of all,

1:02

it was a great opportunity first of all to take

1:04

over onward. But fundamentally, I've

1:06

spent twelve years as political journalist,

1:08

seven at the Financial Times. And

1:11

I kind of look at where the country is now and just

1:13

think there's a raft of big idea. People

1:15

are not looking about how to fix these

1:17

big problems. A lot of the media debate

1:19

has become quite small minded in terms

1:22

of the ups and downs focus on just

1:24

the horse race of who's up, who's

1:26

behind. And I think when the opportunity

1:29

came along to take over as director

1:31

of a preeminent centreright thing tank,

1:33

which values align with my values.

1:35

I felt like you couldn't possibly turn down

1:37

this idea because if you've got people who are not

1:39

exploring, these bigger problems and challenges

1:42

with the country, they're no one will. And

1:44

having done political journalism, yes, of course,

1:46

Christian Lay, you you're observing from the side

1:48

lines from the press gallery, from the newsroom,

1:51

and you look at people who are trading in the

1:53

ideas day to day, and of course, a part of you

1:55

thinks,

1:55

well, actually, I would like to get a bit stuck into

1:57

that. And and have you personally always

2:00

been a conservative? I would

2:02

say my world view has always been shaped

2:04

on the centreright I think

2:06

I grew up in one of the towns that I explored

2:08

in Burkhard lands in Gateshead, and

2:10

I think it was totally homogenous

2:13

labor that accounts was always labor. You always

2:15

had labor MPs. And for most of my

2:18

knowing life, it was a labor government from

2:20

the age of seven. The first election I remember

2:22

going to the ballot box to until twenty

2:24

ten, which was the first election I voted in.

2:26

So everything was labor. And I think when

2:28

I looked at life in Gates

2:30

said, and this was reflective of many other

2:32

sort of red wall toys you might say

2:35

is you think, well, hang on a minute, you guys have been

2:37

in power a long time. Things have not fundamentally

2:39

changed. They've not got better. And when I've

2:41

looked at kind of solutions for places

2:44

like Gaiden and the towns I visited in

2:46

Broken Heartland, it doesn't feel me the answer

2:48

is always the state does more. It's

2:50

not always pouring more money into it.

2:52

You've got to be more imaginative about how you

2:54

deliver outcomes that again is what

2:56

tipped me on the center right of the

2:58

spectrum. So so do you think you've always been on this

3:01

trajectory? I mean, I'm I'm imagining in a

3:03

few years time you'll be a conservative

3:05

MP and possibly

3:08

in being government. You're very sort of reminiscent

3:10

of someone like Michael Gove

3:13

is sort of, you know, had a had a background

3:15

in in journalism and but

3:17

but been a big thinker and then ends up in politics. Is

3:19

that where you think you're heading? Well, obviously,

3:21

at the moment, I'm very busy running

3:23

the preeminent

3:25

center right thing tank that's all my

3:27

focuses on at the moment. Is that

3:29

something I might ever think about in the future? Who knows

3:31

what the future holds? But for now, I think with

3:33

onward, we've got this eighteen month window

3:36

until the next election where at the

3:38

moment we are trying to make the biggest difference

3:40

we can with the

3:42

the the the government and the ideas need to be

3:44

shaped, then of course there'll be the manifesto process.

3:47

So really onwards all I'm thinking about at

3:49

the

3:49

moment. Because you I mean, you might say

3:51

it's a slightly odd time to go in sort of

3:53

sent to right ideas

3:56

because, you know, we're we're in a sort of,

3:59

you know, arguably sort of the the fag

4:01

end of a conservative period of government. It's

4:04

not exhibiting a huge number of new ideas

4:08

at the moment and it's sort of preoccupied with

4:10

sort of exhibiting competence because that's what

4:12

it's lost. Under the

4:14

Boris Johnson period. So

4:17

is this – when you're thinking about

4:19

what ideas should

4:21

be embraced. Are you thinking – are you really thinking about

4:23

the next election or is this sort of a

4:26

longer term? Are you thinking about what happens

4:28

to the conservative party in opposition? If they

4:30

lose the next election.

4:31

Well, I'll focus on what is very much about

4:33

the hero now, and I actually think this is the

4:35

best time to be getting stuck into ideas

4:38

because We've gone through a pretty turbulent

4:40

period in terms of governing, you know, three prime

4:42

ministers in twelve months. But now

4:45

what Rishi Sunak's doing government is focusing

4:47

as you said on that five point plan But

4:49

when you look beyond that, which will probably

4:51

be some point in twenty twenty four, when

4:54

we start to look towards a general

4:56

election, There will be that need for new

4:58

fresh ideas and thinking, and the conservative

5:00

parties obviously won four elections. It wants

5:02

to win a fifth election which would be unprecedented.

5:05

And to do that, it is gonna require

5:08

fresh ideas and a fresh way of doing things

5:10

and when you look at what we do it on with, you know,

5:12

our race on debt to a very much is

5:14

about leveling up and about trying to deal

5:17

with those longest standing regional inner

5:19

qualities. And the fact is that there are just

5:21

too many parts of this country that don't have

5:23

enough quality of

5:24

opportunity, and that is what really drives

5:26

me. So

5:27

so so I mean, when did you become interested in

5:29

politics? Is it as a little kid or what? It

5:31

was very early in my life that

5:33

I grew up in Gated,

5:36

as I

5:36

said, in the northeast of England. And

5:39

my what

5:40

kind of childhood was it? So

5:42

I was born in nineteen eighty

5:44

nine, and my mother was a teacher for

5:46

forty three years. And my father

5:48

was a small businessman. And

5:50

I grew up in this household where we

5:53

were, you know, it was a very straightforward

5:55

middle middle class household, but had

5:57

a sister who died a year before

5:59

I was born and my early years

6:01

of my life or my father campaigning

6:04

about her death that there was an incinerator

6:07

in eastern gate set near where we lived

6:09

that was pumping out toxic

6:11

Krishnan and he'd found a cluster

6:14

of children who had been diagnosed with

6:16

various orphan cancers and

6:18

my sister died in nineteen eighty eight and

6:20

he was convinced and found

6:22

evidence that the incinerator had been operating

6:25

without crown immunity as it was caused,

6:27

so it was being allowed to burn toxic

6:29

waste. And so the first part of my childhood

6:32

was all about that campaign and eventually

6:34

he succeeded. So number one, The incinerator

6:37

was shut down and was blown

6:39

up. And number two, plans for a super

6:41

incinerator were not built. And

6:44

so that was the kind of background to that, my

6:45

father.

6:46

It's a very early lesson in the power

6:48

of activism there. And also, I think

6:50

the crucial thing which has really driven my world

6:52

view which is the power of people

6:55

who feel forgotten by the system.

6:57

Michael Gove gave this lecture in twenty

6:59

twenty called the privilege of public

7:01

service that was all about what the state,

7:03

what government is there to do, and it was that

7:05

lecture that drove me to write broken

7:08

heartlands, and in that piece, he talked

7:10

about FDR's forgot man, and that was

7:12

his concept in the nineteen thirties of

7:14

the pyramid of interest within American society.

7:17

And essentially, the fact that, you know, that

7:19

if you looked at who was doing best and who was doing

7:21

worse after the depression, there was that

7:23

bottom cadre of people who were always

7:25

being forgotten by the structures. And his

7:27

new deal was all about fixing that. What

7:30

Michael Gove was saying is in the post Brexit,

7:32

post pandemic world, those people

7:34

we've got to focus on. And so when I

7:36

was looking back at my

7:39

childhood and the campaign that my father

7:41

fought, it was a very difficult thing again

7:43

not coming from a hugely money background to

7:45

find the money to fight that campaign. I

7:48

was very reflective of, you know, the idea this is

7:50

someone who had a straightforward life

7:52

but did not have an experience in campaign. And

7:54

actually dedicated broken heartlands

7:56

to him as a reluctant fighter because it

7:58

was not something he wanted to do, but it was

8:00

driven by his circumstances. But

8:02

my father died when I was eight. So from

8:04

then

8:05

onwards, I was bought a bit a single parent

8:07

household by my mother who continued to

8:09

teach them until she retired

8:10

in twenty ten. And

8:12

and so and with a political. Not

8:15

really. When I discussed this a bit in broken

8:17

heartlands that my father was instinctively

8:20

labor it came from a working class

8:22

background in Gates said, my mother was

8:24

instinctively conservative and my

8:26

first political memory was walking to the polling

8:29

station in nineteen ninety seven and they

8:31

were I was literally out standing between them

8:33

with him on the left, her on the right physically

8:35

and literally and went into the polling

8:37

station and my mother still voted

8:39

conservative despite being gay said

8:41

where there's really not a huge amount of point

8:43

in doing that. And I reflected on

8:45

this many years late because I thought come breaks

8:48

it They would have both been

8:50

instinctively breakfast. I obviously don't know for

8:52

my father, but come twenty nineteen,

8:54

they probably both would have voted for Boris Johnson.

8:56

And for me, that symbolizes the

8:59

realignment we've seen since twenty sixteen.

9:01

The people from sort of the left and the

9:03

right actually came together was much more about

9:06

place and about age than the traditional

9:08

social structures, but no kind of

9:10

beyond that activism of my early

9:12

years. But I guess I was always in

9:14

household where people, you know, The news was

9:16

on, Channel four news, newspapers, they

9:19

were they were very engaged with the current affairs

9:21

family, and guess that's continued in

9:23

my family since I've gone into this realm.

9:25

And tell me little bit about your dad and about

9:27

losing your dad at eight. I mean, that's an

9:29

that's an incredibly

9:32

formative time. To lose your father.

9:35

So he was born in nineteen forty

9:37

one and so he was little bit older

9:39

than most fathers and he'd had years

9:41

of ill health on and off up

9:43

until that point. And I think for

9:45

the last year or eighteen months of his

9:47

life, he was clearly pretty unwell.

9:50

And I think it was just came to the point when obviously

9:53

he it was it was clear that he really was not that

9:55

bass. There was point that I can remember when

9:58

I was aware that he was not going

10:00

to be around in the future that he was

10:02

clearly very unwell until we came to

10:04

the final days when he was taken to hospital.

10:07

And all that sort of thing. My main memory was

10:09

at Primary School. So I was in year five

10:11

and I was eight years old at that point and

10:13

nine years old, I should say, sorry. I just

10:15

remember it's so it makes you stand out at school

10:17

because when you're in a class of, I think, thirty

10:19

two people, everyone is kind of the

10:21

same. Then suddenly, you've this thing when you're

10:24

little bit different. I had some time out from

10:26

school. And I remember going back to school was

10:28

a fairly weird period because at

10:30

that point, you were sort of like

10:32

some of these big things happened to you, but

10:35

you pick it up and I was you just pick up and

10:37

you go on. I was very lucky to have a wonderful

10:39

family. A very caring mother

10:41

and aunts and uncles and friends

10:43

and family friends. And I'm still incredibly close

10:46

and fond to all of them. Because they

10:48

provided that support network

10:50

that resulted after that as well. You

10:53

you you talked about your parents and how they

10:56

might have voted in twenty nineteen. And

10:59

you do believe, don't you, that

11:01

there has been a realignment of

11:04

of of policies around

11:07

values rather than just the

11:09

old tribal loyalties

11:11

Just explain why you think that's the case

11:13

now. So the argument that I

11:15

charted about what's happened in UK politics

11:18

is that obviously, these places

11:20

that voted for the Conservative Party for the

11:22

first time ever or since the Second

11:24

World War in twenty nineteen, they're

11:27

their culture and economic base has

11:30

changed that many people's mindsets

11:32

are that they had heavy industries, and

11:34

now they've just been on a downward slope

11:36

for long period of time. I don't think

11:38

that's the case. When I talked about

11:40

concert earlier, when you go to concert now,

11:43

you know, yes, it's high street for some

11:45

of the similar structural issues other high

11:47

streets do. But it's got big private

11:49

housing estate. It's got a lot of

11:51

small manufacturing. And in some ways,

11:54

this is the long tail effect of

11:56

that tourism to replace that big

11:58

and off a nationalized industrial place

12:00

with a smaller more diversified private

12:02

sector service based economy.

12:04

And I think that has created people

12:07

who are more naturally conservative leaning

12:09

in their outlook, and Evobsy's seen this in

12:11

other parts of the country, you know, obviously in Kent

12:13

and Essex in the nineteen eighties, but

12:15

there was a more latent effect elsewhere in

12:17

the country because, you know, a lot of

12:19

these places had industries that shut down

12:21

and there simply wasn't enough done

12:24

to replace them and when I interviewed Lord Norman

12:26

Tabbett for the book who, and obviously, was employment

12:28

secretary of nineteen eighties, he comes as

12:30

close to admitting as he ever would that

12:32

when, you know, the coal mines and the steel

12:34

works and all those things shut down, there

12:37

wasn't enough done to fill that gap.

12:39

But that has now happened over a four

12:41

decade period. And when you look at what

12:43

happened since twenty ten, a

12:45

lot of those natural labor voters have sort

12:47

of disaggregated from the party. And a lot of

12:49

them, first of all, went to UK. That

12:51

was their source of disenfranchisement with

12:54

politics. So they went to UK. Then

12:56

they voted for Brexit. And then they got to

12:58

the point where you had Jeremy Corbyn as the

13:00

Labour Party leader who, culturally,

13:03

aesthetically, was out of step with

13:05

these places. But then on the single issue

13:07

they cared about the most Brexit, he

13:10

was didn't have anything to say really, you know, Labour's

13:12

position in twenty nineteen was just to set on

13:14

the

13:14

fence. Because

13:15

couldn't say what he really thought perhaps. Which

13:17

was which was to get on with Brexit. That's

13:19

what he wanted to do. But what you saw

13:21

was this sort of disconnection. Had

13:24

happened gradually. And what I talk

13:26

about it is the hamstead to homicide alliance

13:28

because those were the foundations Labour

13:30

Party was built on metropolitan liberal

13:33

intellectuals and, you know, more

13:35

rural working class path, the Hampstead, the

13:37

Humber side, Brexit. Eroded

13:39

that. It went straight down the middle. And

13:42

think maybe that bridge can be rebuilt,

13:44

maybe there can be a new message to that. But

13:46

you can't just assume those people are automatically

13:48

gonna go back once they've had their sort of

13:50

a naught they've expressed their annoyance with where labor

13:53

was. Well, this is what I wanted to raise with you because

13:55

I, you know, the analysis at at the end

13:57

of Britains

13:59

Heartlands, is is that, and I think, you know, that that

14:01

idea of a sort of fundamental realignment of

14:03

British politics was very much the story of the

14:06

comings Johnson years.

14:10

And I I wonder whether That

14:13

was then and this is now. You know,

14:15

and that and that actually what we're about to see

14:17

is the old alignment of British politics

14:19

reassert itself. And that we're gonna

14:21

get quite a traditional split of

14:23

who votes for who and where.

14:26

Well, I don't agree with that because I think,

14:28

first of all, you know, the

14:31

conservative party aspires to be

14:33

a one nation party and that is used

14:35

quite a lot. But what that actually means

14:37

is representing the values and

14:39

the aspirations of the whole of society,

14:42

which is the blue wall in the

14:44

in the south, but also the red wall

14:46

in the north as well. And as I

14:48

said, this wasn't just a one off event

14:50

in twenty nineteen. It had been happening

14:52

gradually over decades. And if you look at

14:55

how Labour voters had moved away from

14:57

the party, actually, from two thousand one onwards,

14:59

if you want to go further, from that as

15:01

well. But also the factors where this is reflected

15:03

in other left wing parties

15:05

across western countries that this is

15:07

not just a phenomenon that essentially

15:10

the Metropolitan verses the more provincial.

15:13

Those are quite different devices. They've got

15:15

different social aspirations.

15:17

They've got different work aspirations as

15:19

well. It may well be. We'll see

15:21

what happens the next election. I still think the next

15:23

election is eighteen months away. A

15:25

lot can happen within that period.

15:28

But within that time frame, I still

15:30

think the conservative party is

15:32

now the Brexit party represents Brexit

15:35

and Brexit supporting voters. I don't think

15:37

that's automatically going to change, although Brexit

15:39

is starting to move away as being

15:41

a salient dividing line within politics.

15:44

But I think that realignment matters because

15:46

ultimately I said, what drives me?

15:48

What is important to me? That is a quality of

15:50

opportunity. Because that is what conservatism

15:53

should be about. And who needs a

15:55

quality equalized the most? It's those

15:57

parts of the country that did not

15:59

have the support during the deindustrialization era

16:02

over the last forty years. So think it will be

16:05

a mistake for the Conservative Party just to

16:07

flip back to twenty ten its traditional voting

16:09

base. It has to lean into the realignment

16:11

and has to continue to make sure it's policies

16:13

and outlook is speaking to that. And I think

16:15

Rishi Sunak believes in leveling up,

16:17

you know, the fact is from his constituency in

16:20

North Yorkshire, you can see the

16:22

Teas Valley. You can see all the

16:24

new work that's being done to

16:26

clear the steelworks and bring in

16:28

new industries to level up in a

16:30

way. So I think he believes in leveling

16:32

up as strongly as Boris Johnson did,

16:35

and also that aspiration is what Teresa made

16:37

with the

16:37

jams, the just about managing's, which was

16:39

forgotten due to Brexit, but that analysis

16:42

has been in conservative thinking for quite

16:44

some time now and I don't think it's gonna go away

16:47

and it would be a massive mistake if the

16:49

party decide to drop I just don't think

16:51

it's going

16:51

to. Yes. Although although I suppose

16:53

the problem is Brexit, I'm sure

16:55

we'll continue to be a sort of defining

16:58

future budget politics for generations

17:01

perhaps. But I mean,

17:04

But in terms of values, it's quite hard, isn't

17:06

it for the conservative party to argue on

17:08

values of the next election, for example,

17:11

on things like immigration. When

17:13

people haven't got on immigration, what

17:15

they thought they were gonna get after

17:18

Brexit. And, you know, and that

17:20

immigration numbers are enormous legal

17:22

immigration as well as illegal immigration. But

17:24

even legal immigration numbers are massive, probably

17:27

much higher than people thought they would be

17:29

back in twenty

17:30

sixteen. Well, the figures last year, as

17:32

you know, I've got some particular circumstances due

17:34

to, obviously, Ukraine, Afghanistan, leading

17:37

to a particularly high bump at that point.

17:39

My view on immigration is that it's

17:41

all about control and I think, you

17:43

know, people who talk about tens of thousands.

17:46

That's not helpful. What people do want

17:48

is to say that there is a border system

17:50

that works, that you can see that the state

17:52

is functioning in a good way. You know,

17:54

conservative thinking said twenty years ago,

17:57

we shouldn't have ID cards. I think

17:59

there is now very strong case for ID cards

18:01

because you've got to show that people can

18:03

control the nation state and that you know what's

18:05

coming in and out. It's a fundamental tenant

18:07

for lot of voters. But, you know,

18:09

we'll see where we get to the next election. That's

18:12

what the government's five point plan is

18:14

about is showing that these kind of

18:16

five areas, which they think people want

18:18

to lean into, are actually being delivered

18:20

at that point. And who are expecting this

18:22

plan on small boats to come in the coming weeks

18:24

from the government, and it will be judged

18:26

on the success of that of otherwise, but

18:29

you know, from my travels and the people that I've

18:31

spoken to around the country about

18:33

immigration, which was a, you know, was a huge

18:35

part of the Brexit vote. It is about

18:38

that sense of control, and I think

18:40

if you can deliver that and show that,

18:42

people will be more willing to accept higher numbers

18:44

than some politicians have

18:45

suggested. What do you think the defining

18:48

values then of conservatism should

18:50

be? First of

18:52

all, I'm gonna combat this again, which is

18:54

a quality of opportunity to make sure

18:56

that wherever you are, whoever you are

18:58

in this country, you have got the best opportunity

19:01

succeed in life because At the

19:03

moment, I think, you know, intelligence is equally

19:06

distributed across the country, but equality

19:08

is simply not. And I think you can

19:10

see that, and I've seen that through my own career

19:12

and things that I've done. So I think that's the

19:14

first thing. The second thing is localism

19:17

that both are onward and and

19:19

the books that I've written strongly believe

19:21

that we have to decentralize power

19:24

rapidly and massively across this country

19:26

with the directly elected mayors, I think

19:28

are the best innovation we've seen

19:30

over the last ten years in this country and

19:32

we've got more of them coming, I would

19:34

like to see the House of Lords abolished

19:36

and have all those mayors sit in a

19:38

kind of upper chamber senate, not elected as

19:41

Labour's proposing, because I think that creates the

19:43

US system where it gets very difficult,

19:45

but have an upper chamber that is truly representing

19:48

the different parts of England as well.

19:50

And then the third tenant is actually economic

19:53

growth. And I think that obviously, Liz

19:55

Truss went too far too fast

19:57

and not doing it carefully enough. But

19:59

if we don't get growth back up to two

20:01

percent or even higher levels in this country,

20:04

we gonna have big problems for the structure

20:06

of the welfare state for our public services

20:08

in the future. And for me, all

20:10

those three things come together, you

20:13

deliver more quality of opportunity

20:16

by devolution, by allowing local

20:18

mass to side skills, potentially even having

20:20

tax powers, you deliver more growth

20:22

by more localism in these different

20:24

places. So they all knit together in

20:27

a way that reshapes Britain in what

20:29

is fundamentally a quite conservative idea

20:32

of putting power close to people and

20:34

away from Westminster.

20:36

I mean, it

20:38

it is striking to me. All of those things

20:40

could just as easily be described as

20:43

new new new labor values. All

20:45

those three things that you've talked about are

20:48

things that Kia Starman would be very comfortable

20:50

with. So I wonder why

20:52

you sort of nail them to

20:54

the conservative must rather

20:57

than as just ideas that you would like

20:59

anybody to pick up. You know, is it because

21:01

you do have a tribal conservatism?

21:03

At all. And I think if I go back to

21:05

what the work we do at onward, as I said,

21:08

we work with politicians across the spectrum

21:10

on

21:10

this. And if you, you know, you see what I'm saying is

21:12

sort of, you

21:13

know, those three things are not I

21:15

think what most people would argue

21:17

are defining because But

21:18

I think they are. I think they are. Because

21:20

first of all, the localism agenda,

21:22

that is very core conservative principle

21:25

about putting power closer to

21:27

people. It's about key to the labor

21:29

That's special one. Of course, of

21:31

course, it may well be, but I think there is a difference

21:34

about how they might be delivered

21:36

to on growth, for example, I

21:38

don't believe that, you know, the way that we better

21:40

growth in this country is to form money to public

21:42

services. I'm almost certain that's what Labour

21:45

will propose. In its next manifested And

21:47

net zero, which you do agree with. Which I do agree

21:49

with net zero. But again, I think net zero

21:51

is an aspiration that ties into those things,

21:53

you know, when you look mentioned Tees Valley

21:55

before, if you go to Gimsby, you

21:57

can see places being regenerated by

22:00

the private sector with greater business

22:02

invest to re industrialize those

22:05

kind of places. So the difference of

22:07

emphasis of course is about the role of

22:09

the state and the private sector. All these

22:11

things that I'm talking about is about empowering

22:14

a better economy through the private sector,

22:16

not just making the state bigger, and that's

22:18

what growth is about. You know, if you take the tax

22:20

burden, for example. Of course, I think the tax

22:23

burden is too high at the moment. Of

22:25

course, it needs to come down. I can see

22:27

all the reasons for that. The difference is I

22:29

think that it has to be done in a logical

22:31

way based on sound money in a sustainable

22:34

way, not just doing it as quickly and

22:36

in a quick fast way as we saw earlier

22:38

last year. I don't think labor's gonna necessarily

22:40

be talking about lowing taxes. They might want

22:42

more growth, but they're gonna look at doing it

22:44

in a very different way. But I think fundamentally

22:47

where British politics has got to now is

22:49

all the places that need the help

22:51

the most, though so called left behind

22:54

town that I visited in Broken Heartlands have

22:56

a lot about. They are now the center

22:59

of political debate and that

23:01

is a wonderful thing. I love the

23:03

fact. That both parties are

23:05

focused on this. I think that

23:07

centreright right ideas for these places

23:09

are the right ones and are working right

23:11

now. But I'm very glad to see that

23:13

labor, which I think did not do enough

23:16

in his thirteen years of power for these places,

23:18

is now trying to make up for

23:20

that and try and do more about it under

23:22

the the guys of people like Lisa and

23:24

Andy

23:25

Burnham. And how do you think that kind of conservatism?

23:27

Your kind of conservatism would

23:30

would fend off the

23:33

the the march of the rights, you

23:35

know, of of reform and

23:37

Ferrars and and all of that.

23:40

Well, first of all, I think, obviously, reform

23:42

UK are there and they're doing quite well at the moment

23:44

because people are quite unhappy with politics

23:47

generally and You see it's midterm

23:49

blues is how I would put it that you've

23:51

saw this with UK, you've seen this with the liberal

23:53

democrats in a different part of country for

23:55

the conservatives. When people get to the

23:57

next election, they have to seriously think

24:00

about how they're gonna vote, who's gonna run the

24:02

country, then I think there will form threat will

24:04

abate away because they're not gonna form the next

24:06

government. You keep never got any MPs

24:08

within parliament. They obviously did shape the

24:11

agenda and where things went in quite a big

24:13

way with regard to the mask. But if people

24:15

let me just and if people think come the

24:17

next

24:17

election, the conservatives are gonna lose anyway.

24:20

And they're looking at a labor government

24:22

in some form, minority or

24:24

majority. Might they not go?

24:26

We need to stand up for our use and maybe

24:28

what we need is some some night of

24:30

Faraj type m p's. I disagree

24:33

with that. You'll be shocked to say because I think

24:35

that what it is incumbent on the center

24:37

right to make those arguments that

24:39

fend off that because I think when you

24:41

saw the big collapse in declining UK,

24:43

it was because the people

24:45

on the center right had a cogent

24:48

argument to speak to the reasons people

24:50

might be looking towards reform. So if

24:52

you take NetZero, for example, for

24:54

form of made a big song and dance about

24:56

the fact we can't afford NetZero, which

24:58

is just complete tosses an argument because

25:00

the fact is NetZero is the quickest and

25:02

easiest way to get to cheaper

25:05

energy, to have a better base

25:07

for the future. And I think, you know, people on

25:09

the society to be bolder, in making

25:11

those arguments. Because if you don't, the kind

25:13

of vacuous popular slogans you

25:15

see from reform can find a currency.

25:18

And when we get past this particular

25:20

period where it is focused on delivery, the

25:22

economy, those kind of competence

25:24

level, places like Omen are putting forward

25:27

those arguments. You know, we run a big

25:29

getting to zero program. We are

25:31

focused on energy security. We are focused

25:33

on how to make net zero

25:34

work. But I think for the center right,

25:36

if reform you care doing well, that

25:38

means we have failed in our arguments and need

25:41

to be better at what we're doing. Co because, I

25:43

mean, the truth is also that if

25:45

the conservatives lose the next election, this argument

25:47

here is going to be about the

25:49

heart of the conservative party, isn't it? And who

25:52

who inherits the ruins and

25:54

whether it's a, you know, what you

25:56

would describe as, you know, logical, centrist,

25:58

sensible, you

26:01

know, way of thinking or whether

26:03

it's, you know, what is quite common

26:05

in these sort of situations, surge of

26:07

the right, you know, core votes, core

26:09

values, that's gonna

26:11

be the

26:12

struggle, isn't it? Well, obviously, I don't

26:14

accept the next election is entirely lost.

26:16

Oh, sure. Yeah. But I said a lot can happen

26:18

in eighteen months. Let's see what happens at

26:20

that point. And I think, you know, if there

26:22

was a scenario where the conservatives

26:24

don't win the next election, The question

26:26

will then be about, you know, why didn't

26:29

the party win? Why didn't those center

26:31

right values do well? And then

26:33

how you can reassert them and re figure

26:35

out where we need to do things. You know, I'm a big

26:37

fan of getting of planning reform and

26:39

I think that's something that has to be done. That's

26:42

obviously not gone through parliament at the moment.

26:44

The conservative party will have to think why

26:46

that is and how we get to a place that we

26:48

should have won that argument because the world's, this

26:50

eighty seat majority of the Boris Johnson won

26:53

in twenty nineteen. That majority,

26:55

you know, I think it has done some good things. I think

26:57

the levelling up bill and all the funds there have

26:59

been great. The devolution has been

27:01

great. The progress on net zero again

27:04

has been very good. There are other realms

27:06

of the public sector that still require

27:08

reform and have not gotten to the right

27:11

place that they should be. So if it

27:13

came to that scenario, yes, of course, there will

27:15

be debate within the party. But I

27:17

think ultimately if the conservative party

27:19

wants to get back into power in the near future,

27:22

it will be about the onward ideas

27:24

because the ideas we've put forward are what won

27:27

the twenty nineteen

27:27

election, and I

27:28

think we'll win the elections of the future. We haven't

27:30

talked much much about your other book, the fall of Boris

27:32

Johnson. And I wonder whether that's

27:34

because you may yet

27:36

have to write another book called The Fallen Rise

27:38

of Boris Johnson. I mean, how likely do you think that

27:40

is? Well, obviously, there was that

27:42

weekend where Boris Johnson thought about

27:45

coming back, you know, he tried to get back on the

27:47

ballot in October the twenty first

27:49

at that point and obviously didn't

27:51

work out that time. The

27:53

question for Boris Johnson will be

27:55

as one of the circumstances that he

27:57

might strive to come back. He obviously wants

28:00

to remain active in politics as

28:02

a figure. There's no doubt about that. And

28:04

he obviously played a big role in Ukraine, and one

28:06

thing that I talk about in the book is

28:08

the fact that he has a very good track

28:10

record that he made a big call

28:13

as he did with the vaccine rollout and got

28:15

that big call on Ukraine at absolutely

28:17

right. And I think, you know, there may well be some

28:19

big international though that he can play with the reconstruction

28:22

of Ukraine or trying to bring Western

28:24

countries together. You know, as the war

28:27

continues. With regards to Westminster politics,

28:30

I mean, my feeling is Rishi Sunak is

28:32

almost overwhelmingly likely to fight the

28:34

next general election for the conservatives. It

28:37

would feel it would be to go through the

28:39

process of changing leader again, and it'll

28:41

be very disruptive when, as I said, the focus

28:43

has to be on competence for now

28:45

and then fresh ideas going into twenty

28:48

twenty four. But, you know, who

28:50

knows what the politics has been imposed on to good return

28:52

to the cabinet? I'm sure he would love to be

28:54

foreign secretary again, he might want to have

28:56

a punt at being leader again, but we'll

28:58

see what happens in those circumstances. I

29:00

mean, in the context of the the conversation we've been having,

29:02

I mean, isn't one of problems when

29:04

you think about Boris Johnson is actually

29:07

what politically what he stands for beyond

29:10

personality, you know, and that are

29:12

there big believe some core beliefs

29:14

and and thoughts there that you

29:16

can say, yes, that is that is John

29:18

Sonyan conservatism.

29:20

So a lot of people will often say there isn't

29:22

a thing such as Johnsonism, but at

29:25

the end of my first book, I spent a whole day

29:27

in Hartley pool with Boris Johnson. And

29:29

that was obviously the by election the conservatives

29:31

won and for the first time ever was a huge

29:34

shock that result. And I

29:36

think His point about the fact

29:38

is that we are not doing enough for

29:40

parts of the country that need the help the most.

29:42

I think Boris Johnson, January believes in

29:44

that that he obviously was a big backer of

29:46

Brexit in the twenty sixteen

29:48

referendum. And I think he

29:50

But that may just be sort of clever election election

29:52

politics that he knows that he's got replace

29:55

the the voters he's losing in the south

29:58

with voters in the north. But the point of twenty

30:00

nineteen was that actually the

30:02

conservatives didn't lose that many voters

30:04

in the south because, you know, that slogan get

30:06

Brexit done. Yes, it was about

30:09

reassuring Brexiters that

30:11

they were part they were gonna deliver leave result,

30:13

but also said to remain voters,

30:16

we are on your side as well. And

30:18

I think that was quite a clever thing that worked

30:20

on both ends of that kind of that

30:22

kind of spectrum. And I think there's no reason

30:24

to consider to be party can't maintain

30:27

that twenty nineteen coalition of both

30:29

ends of it. And I think that's what Johnsonism

30:32

was about. It was about. Leveling

30:34

up for the red wall and and by the way, with levelling

30:36

up, you know, a lot of people Britains the levelling

30:38

up funds by picking a very leafy

30:41

bummer and saying why are they getting the money?

30:43

The fact is there are huge pockets of

30:45

rural poverty outside the north

30:47

and outside the Midlands at those Red War

30:49

places and we really don't do enough to

30:51

focus on the things they need, which is obviously

30:54

better broadband infrastructure, rural

30:56

bus services, better and look

30:58

very localized services within those

31:00

places. So that, I guess, is what

31:02

Johnsonism, is that combined with

31:05

that obviously, that boosterism, that optimism

31:07

that his fans loved and his detractors

31:10

found very irritating. But to

31:12

a lot of those people, you know, if you've lived in

31:14

some towns where your GDP has

31:16

been going backwards for quite a long period

31:18

of time, and you've got someone who comes

31:20

along who makes you feel better about

31:22

yourself and gives you that vision. That

31:24

does very well in a Ronald Reagan sunshine

31:26

in America. That was what Boris Johnson

31:29

tried to

31:29

do. It worked well for Ronald Reagan. It worked well for

31:31

Johnson in twenty nineteen. I just

31:33

wanna sort of circle back to

31:37

journalism and your your roots into

31:39

this as well. Because as as you

31:41

know, a lot of people, you know, believe

31:43

that there is this

31:46

you know, there there's an intrinsic right wing

31:48

bias within newspapers. And

31:50

that people like you

31:53

work in newspapers, you're in

31:55

charge of editorial comments and

31:58

opinion. Within

32:00

newspapers. And and

32:03

then you sort of end up and you

32:05

you're a conservative insider. And

32:07

then you end up sort of shaping conservative policy

32:10

as a think tanker, and you might who

32:12

knows? You might end up in politics yourself one

32:14

day. And this is sort of this is what's

32:16

wrong with sort of the alignment

32:18

of politics in the media. How

32:20

how do you think about this? Do people have

32:22

a point that there is a sort of a problem,

32:25

a structural problem with the

32:28

way people flip between politics

32:30

and newspapers.

32:32

Well, the point I'd make within the fall of Boris

32:34

Johnson is there were three Ps

32:36

that I outlined that brought down Boris

32:38

Johnson, which was Patterson, which was

32:40

Owen Patterson, the disgraced former environment

32:43

secretary in his breaking parliamentary rules,

32:45

partygate, which was about up to the rule breaking

32:48

parties in Downing Street, and pincher, Chris

32:50

pincher, the former deputy chief whip accused

32:52

of sexual harassment allegations. All

32:54

three of those peas were brought into

32:57

the public realm by the media. So

32:59

Owen Patterson was reporting by

33:01

the Guardian into his affairs. That

33:03

would not have happened, were it not for that? Partygate,

33:06

you had lots of reporting, obviously, by

33:08

ITV, by The Daily Telegraph, that

33:10

famous left wing newspaper, that printed

33:13

lots of reporting about what happened there.

33:15

And pincher that was exposed by

33:17

the Sun newspaper as well. So

33:19

if you look at all those three things that were

33:21

there, they were all brought down by part of

33:23

the print media that people who would make that accusation

33:26

would want to critique about it. My

33:28

general view is that I've worked in four

33:31

four newspapers of all different

33:33

editorial persuasions and world

33:35

outlooks. I have genuinely never

33:37

had a situation like anyone has lent

33:40

on me to write or not write a story

33:42

in a particular way. And think some

33:44

people give the media a lot more credit

33:47

than it is due for the way it might shape

33:49

up. Shape political events that when

33:51

you're a journalist, you know, you you can

33:53

nudge things in a particular direction. And when

33:55

I wrote the fall Boy Johnson, I went

33:57

through, you know, millions of words of

33:59

things that were written and reported on at

34:01

the time. And then when I was sitting down

34:03

to do the interviews, about what was

34:05

going on behind the scenes with people who were

34:07

more willing and frank to talk because it was a book

34:10

as opposed to day to day journalism. It

34:12

was astounding me how much of it was

34:14

completely on the nose. There was very few bits

34:16

that people had not got right, and that thought, well, hang

34:18

on a minute. There is no bias here because people

34:20

are doing that. With regards to your question

34:22

about the revolving door things, my

34:25

view on that is, I don't see there's an odd

34:27

slightly odd thing in this country about, like,

34:29

you know, if you go into politics, that's seen

34:31

as like almost a bad thing. They're like, you

34:33

know, if you're in the media, that's a wonderful

34:35

noble thing. But public service is

34:37

actually quite a bad thing. And people who

34:39

want to do one and go to the other, I

34:42

find that very odd in any other country

34:44

in America. I would often meet people when

34:46

I worked at Washington Post who would say, Oh,

34:48

one day I'm gonna be the senator from Arizona

34:50

and one day I'm gonna do that. If you went around

34:52

the parliament to press gallery and said, oh, one day I'm gonna

34:54

be the MP for whatever, people would look

34:56

at you and think of you in a different way. And

34:58

this is something about how we view politicians

35:01

in our country. Maybe it's the longer term

35:03

effects of of the MPs expenses

35:05

crisis and trust generally within our

35:08

politics. But my general view is that

35:10

if you're like me, you engage in politics,

35:12

you want to get stuck into ideas going

35:15

from journalism to think

35:16

tankery. And I

35:18

think it's a good thing to do, and I hope that

35:20

the things that I was able to do and often journalism

35:23

can offer and do slightly different things in Think

35:25

Tank world. So are you prepared to take on that

35:27

orthodox and

35:28

say, yes, I do want to be a politician. Yeah. I'm

35:30

willing to say, as I said to you earlier, the

35:33

onward is a full time job and I'm loving

35:35

it and that's my singular focus right

35:37

now. So if

35:37

you could change the world in any way, wave of magic

35:39

wand, what would you do? I

35:42

would be cabinet office minister

35:44

for one

35:45

day, and I would radically

35:48

change how the civil service works. I

35:50

would go and give power to

35:52

lots of mezz and create mezz very,

35:54

very quickly. And I would simply

35:56

try and change the fundamental structures

35:58

of how the state works. And in that basis,

36:01

that would create a whole platform for

36:03

best decision making and fix the British

36:05

state for the medium term

36:07

future. It's a pain. Thank you very much

36:09

indeed. Thanks for sharing your way to change the world.

36:15

I hope you enjoyed listening to that. If you did, then

36:17

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