0:00

If I'm correct that it's a bubble, the

0:02

history shows that bubbles don't just deflate gradually.

0:04

They tend to go quite a ways pretty

0:06

quickly. I think this is a sovereign debt

0:09

crisis. And in sovereign debt crises, people don't

0:11

want to own the currency at all. They

0:13

want to own the alternatives to the currency,

0:16

which are gold to Bitcoin. Bitcoin will be

0:18

a million and gold will be, you know,

0:20

12,000. This fiat currency system is in the

0:22

process of dying. and it's relatively acute. And

0:25

some people say, well, we can we can

0:27

fix all this. Well, no, there was a

0:29

time to do that. That was a long

0:32

time ago. Sadly, people have to learn it

0:34

by getting hit in the head. You know what

0:36

I mean? There's got to be pain. What

0:38

Bitcoin did is brought to you

0:40

by our lead sponsor and massive

0:42

legend's Iron. The largest NASDAQ listed

0:44

Bitcoin Minor using 100% renewable energy.

0:47

Iron are not just powering the Bitcoin

0:49

network. They also provide cutting-edge

0:51

computing resources for AI all

0:53

backed by renewable energy. So whether

0:55

you're interested in mining Bitcoin or

0:57

harnessing AI compute power, Iron is

1:00

setting the standard. Visit iron.com to learn

1:02

more, which is i.r.en.com. Are you looking

1:04

forward to Cheeko? Oh very much so, yeah.

1:06

I've got an amazing video from last time

1:08

you were here. You were sat at the

1:10

football club, and it's had some improvement since

1:13

then. Back then it was like a shack.

1:15

And you're sat there with a wedge

1:17

of dollar bills stamping by Bitcoin on

1:19

the wall. Oh, I know. I love

1:21

that. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Rockstar developer had

1:23

me doing that down at the Book Boom.

1:25

So that was a lot of fun. Yeah.

1:28

Have you just been a bit, Bobby? Yeah.

1:30

It was just a sweet. It was great.

1:32

Yeah. I love Gary. He does a really

1:34

nice job. Yeah. Really nice. And he's now,

1:37

he's very intelligent when he went from mom.

1:39

Austin with a bunch of venues and hard

1:41

to move around and using obers to he

1:43

put the conference in the hotel or together.

1:46

Yeah, that's perfect. It's just a no-brainer. Was

1:48

it in Dallas this year? Well, yes, on

1:50

the edge of Dallas, kind of going towards

1:52

Plano. Yeah, I've not been split up with

1:55

you. You haven't? Oh, it's worth going. I

1:57

mean, it falls in the bucket of a good

1:59

four to five hundred. person's show, right, with some

2:01

really nice people. And, you know, I really

2:03

got to sign books and talk to people.

2:05

I mean, I enjoy just sitting around shooting

2:07

the shit with plebs, right? I mean, just

2:09

people come up and hear the story, right?

2:11

How'd you find it? Why do you hold it? What are

2:13

you thinking about it? What are your dreams? You know, just all that

2:16

kind of stuff. I think that's a really good size as well. Because

2:18

when, like, don't get me wrong, I love the big conference too, that's

2:20

fun. But it's very different. Oh, it's a big conference. I mean, you

2:22

know, I mean, I'm sure you have this experience. I went to Nashville

2:24

last year. I mean, I'll see, I mean, I'm sure you have this

2:26

experience. I mean, I mean, I mean, I mean, I mean I mean

2:28

I mean I mean I mean I mean I mean I mean I

2:30

mean I mean I mean I mean I mean I mean I mean

2:32

I mean I mean I mean I mean I mean I mean I

2:34

mean I mean I mean I'm sure I mean I mean I mean

2:36

I mean I mean I mean I mean I'm sure I mean I

2:38

mean I mean I mean I'm sure I mean I mean I mean

2:41

I'm sure I mean I mean I mean I I really like those

2:43

shows. I mean, it was just the right size.

2:45

Totally. Yeah. Well, I'm very excited. So, but thank

2:47

you for coming in for this. Oh, you're most

2:49

welcome. And thank you for having me. I appreciate

2:52

them. As you know, I'm out there hawking books.

2:54

Well, go buy the books, a big print. This

2:56

is the first time I've had the physical copy,

2:58

so thank you. That's such a manuscript of the

3:01

manuscript. Yeah, thanks. You're welcome. But every time I

3:03

do a macro show. It seems like things

3:05

just get crazier and crazier. This is

3:07

a good time to do a macro

3:10

show. It is. What the fuck's going

3:12

on with tariffs? Yeah, okay, so let's

3:14

start there. So... Look, Trump is a

3:17

disruptor and the tariffs are not, it's

3:19

not black and white, all good or

3:21

all bad. As I think you and

3:23

I both know, most Bitcoiners would agree,

3:25

you know, the system we've got set up

3:27

as designed, you know, the dollar reserve

3:29

currency system, you know, Bretton Woods, Post-World

3:31

War II, now runs, run by massive

3:34

Keynesians. is flawed. You know, Trivents' dilemma

3:36

is real. We've hollowed out our manufacturing

3:38

base. We have to export everything or,

3:40

you know, or import everything because we

3:42

don't make stuff anymore. And, you know,

3:44

what's that done? It's caused a lot

3:46

of financialization. Wall Street's done great. Main

3:49

Street's done terrible. Trump won the election

3:51

because he recognized that and he catered

3:53

to that and he wants to make

3:55

America great again. And that really means make

3:57

America great for all of America, which is

3:59

not... just the top 1% or the top

4:02

10%. And he's a part of that,

4:04

but he's actually a populist, as you

4:06

know. And that's why he won the

4:08

election. And so I think, and he

4:10

brought in a treasury secretary, I'll know,

4:12

Scott, the pension manager, who ran the

4:14

speculative attack on the pound when he

4:16

worked for sorrows, and obviously understands, you

4:18

know, economics, money flows, macro, etc. And

4:20

they decided that they are going to

4:22

be very aggressive about trying to make the

4:24

changes that are necessary to get us away

4:26

from the system we've been on into a

4:29

new system. whether tariffs are the perfect solution

4:31

to that, it's unclear. I mean, I'm mixed

4:33

on these tariffs. I mean, I think I'm

4:36

not mixed on the notion of trying to

4:38

return America to, you know, to get to

4:40

a neutral reserve currency and get rid of

4:42

this dollar-based system and, you know, the globalization

4:45

that we've had that's hurt America and really

4:47

hurt a lot of the world. But, you

4:49

know, and so, you know, somebody needed to

4:51

do something. And of course, the way he

4:54

did it, it's like he threw a grenade

4:56

into the party, right? I mean, he came

4:58

out, he came out, you know, with this,

5:00

I mean, I could argue that his approach,

5:03

I would have taken a different approach. I

5:05

would have done a, you know, an oval

5:07

office speech. I would have explained it much

5:09

more clearly. Yeah. You know, I think the

5:11

poster boards with the, you know, you know,

5:14

the numbers were, I mean, to the best

5:16

of my, you know, my, my, my, when

5:18

I look at them, I think they're kind

5:20

of almost made up. I mean, they weren't

5:22

really what the actual tariff that our countries,

5:25

it was a formula based on what they

5:27

perceived to be currency manipulation combined with the

5:29

trade deficit. I mean, the UK is a

5:31

perfect example of that, because The Trump admin

5:33

have said that the UK charged the US

5:35

at 10% tariff, but there is no tariff

5:37

on the US. Right. So maybe it's worth

5:39

explaining where that number's actually come from. Yeah,

5:41

look, I didn't dig into it in great

5:43

depth, and just because I felt like it

5:45

was a waste of my time to go,

5:47

you know, looking at these silly numbers, but

5:50

I've talked to people who have, and I

5:52

know that it's some mathematical formula based

5:54

upon the deficit, the trade deficit that

5:56

we're running with the trade deficit that

5:58

we're running with them, they've done. What

6:01

does currency manipulation mean in that in

6:03

that regard? Well, is that unclear? It's just

6:05

unclear. I mean, I'm not smart enough to know

6:07

and I really don't know how they calculated it.

6:09

I'm sure their guys were digging in trying to

6:11

figure out how they calculated it, but if you

6:13

notice the messaging and that is important, what they,

6:15

you know, notice how what he did was he

6:17

said, he tried to say, you know, Vietnam is

6:20

terrifying. you know 80% yeah and we're only gonna

6:22

put a 40% tariff on that we're gonna do

6:24

half of whatever they hit us with okay and

6:26

you know they really aren't terrifying us at 80% because

6:28

I think if you want to you know

6:30

we're not paying an 80% tariff to go

6:32

into Vietnam but the the trade deficit combined

6:34

with the currency manipulation they computed that to

6:36

be 80% and therefore we're gonna put a

6:38

40% tariff on them of course Vietnam's coming

6:40

at the table and you know as of

6:42

so many other countries and so many other

6:44

countries and so So they did some crazy

6:46

mathematical formula, which wasn't, in my view, very

6:48

well thought out. But it was, you know,

6:50

again, it was classic Trump, right? He was

6:52

trying to create shock, shock and awe. And

6:54

he was trying to. grab a lot of

6:57

turf knowing that he might have to

6:59

give some of that turf back. But

7:01

at least he gets a conversation started,

7:03

he gets a negotiation, he gets a

7:06

negotiation, he starts, excuse me, he tells

7:08

the world there's a new sheriff in

7:10

town and, you know, he's not going

7:12

to let people trade unfairly with us

7:15

in the past. And, you know, he's

7:17

not going to let people trade unfairly

7:19

with us in the past. And, you

7:21

know, he's not going to let people

7:24

trade on fairly. stuff there so you

7:26

know that's that's wrong and and and

7:28

Trump's addressing it so kudos for addressing

7:30

it not clear that he did it

7:33

in the best way possible but he

7:35

trumps Trump and and here we are

7:37

you know what this did that the

7:39

effect of it let's talk about that

7:41

I mean this got announced you know

7:44

on a Wednesday afternoon after the market's

7:46

a close the next two days the

7:48

market was not 11% yeah stock market

7:50

had a heart attack and it's like

7:52

holy crap even though like Trump

7:55

had been talking about

7:57

this since like October.

8:00

or something. Well, that's it. He's been saying this is going to

8:02

happen. And a lot of people thought, well, he's just kidding or

8:04

he's just negotiating or he's going to back off or he's bluffing.

8:06

Yeah. I actually didn't think that. I thought, no, he's pretty

8:08

serious about it and they're kind of giving you a

8:10

warning. He tends to, like, follow up on what he

8:12

says. Yeah. I mean, unlike a lot of politicians, I mean,

8:14

when he says he says he's going to do something,

8:16

he's going to do something, he's going to do something, he

8:18

generally does something, he generally does it. He generally does it.

8:20

He generally does it. He generally does it. He generally

8:22

does it. He generally does it. And there's some chance that

8:25

he will and it's interesting because you know Bill Ackman

8:27

and others are trying to get him a change. Oh no,

8:29

but pleased to lay it in nine days. In fact

8:31

yesterday we saw this enormous rumor that he agreed to, you

8:33

know, and the stock market did a huge, you know, whipsaw

8:35

up and down just based on fake news as he

8:37

said that he was going to back off on

8:39

him. So. But let's go back to the

8:41

impact of the tariffs. I mean, the immediate

8:43

impact of the tariffs was the stock market

8:46

had heart attack. And rightly so, in my

8:48

view, first of all, I believe the stock

8:50

market's a bubble. I mean, if you go

8:52

to any of the John Husband numbers on

8:54

valuation, I mean, this is way, way out

8:56

of line stock market. It has been for

8:58

a long time. That's all because of the

9:00

cheap money that we had, you know, Zirp

9:02

from 08 to 15 and from 19 to

9:04

22. Money was free and a lot of

9:06

it, you know, people were involved in carry

9:08

trades where they, you know, borrow money

9:10

and invest in the stock market. And

9:12

so I haven't seen value in the

9:15

stock market for years. And so I

9:17

haven't seen value in the stock market

9:19

for years. And I, you know, in

9:21

the stock market is heading towards an

9:23

accident. go quite a ways pretty quickly

9:26

and you know they can be violent

9:28

right yeah you were saying just before

9:30

we recorded like this could quite easily

9:32

escalate out of control yes do you think

9:34

we're potentially on the precipice of that i

9:36

do i mean i can't guarantee that i

9:38

don't want to be you know scaremonger or

9:40

do master but i'm trying to look at

9:42

historical precedent and you know i mean there's

9:45

there's a lot of leverage in the system

9:47

and it's different this time it's not a

9:49

way where the leverage is in the housing and

9:51

the banks yeah the leverage is more with

9:53

the hedge funds in the basis trade or

9:55

you know just generally speaking you know in

9:57

the economy i mean consumers are very leveraged

9:59

I mean, credit card debt is extremely

10:01

high and very expensive and climbing rapidly.

10:04

The government is very leveraged. I mean,

10:06

that's probably the biggest point of leverage.

10:08

And, you know, in government interest expenses

10:10

and we've got this whole fiscal doom

10:13

loop thing going on where, you know,

10:15

we have to borrow more and then

10:17

rates go up and interest is higher

10:19

and, you know, so on and so

10:21

forth. I mean, basically, in 2008, you

10:24

know, we went down 50% top to

10:26

bottom. In 2000, we went down 82%

10:28

in the tech stocks and 50% in

10:30

regular stocks. In 2022, we only

10:32

went down 30% before Powell turned

10:34

on the money spigot. But I

10:36

think that what I see is

10:38

that, you know, and this is

10:40

possible, we talked about this before

10:42

as well, it's very possible that

10:45

Trump did, I mean, In doing

10:47

this, I think Trump and Bessent

10:49

knew this will not be taken

10:51

well by the stock market. But

10:53

think about it. They must have

10:55

known. They're not stupid. He's not

10:57

stupid. He knows. But they're not,

10:59

you know, again, they're not stupid.

11:01

Who owns stocks? I mean, you

11:03

know, and Bessent said this in

11:05

his recent, I mean, everyone

11:07

should watch his recent interview

11:10

with Tucker Carlson, right? You know, The

11:12

bottom 50% didn't get hurt with this

11:14

market decline. They don't own stocks now.

11:16

they may get hurt in the fallout

11:19

if we have a big recession slash

11:21

depression and then people start losing their

11:23

jobs. That's going to hurt the bottom

11:25

50%. But the initial part of it

11:27

is, and Bissent said it, you know,

11:29

Wall Street's not going to do as

11:32

well, Main Street's going to do better.

11:34

And so they took as well, Main

11:36

Street's going to do better. And so

11:38

they took a big whack at Wall

11:40

Street by doing this, and as you

11:42

can see, a lot of Wall Streeters

11:44

are crying. I hear it. You know,

11:46

I'm kind of like, we need to,

11:49

we need disruption. The system's broken, we

11:51

need disruption. So I'm balance, I'm with

11:53

him. But anyway, the stock market went

11:55

down and and by the way, you

11:57

know, as we talked about earlier, the

11:59

net effect. It was also a positive

12:01

bond market rally. And Bessen has said

12:03

many times that one of his key

12:05

indicators is he wants to get the

12:07

tenure rate down. And he's got a

12:10

wall of maturity. He's got a rollover.

12:12

He's got seven trillion plus coming due

12:14

this year. He's got seven trillion plus

12:16

coming due this year. And he needs

12:18

lower rates to do that. And he

12:20

criticized Yellen for not terming it out.

12:23

And then of course, he didn't term

12:25

it out. And I think he can't

12:27

term it. these tariffs aren't exactly going

12:29

to make a lot of people love us

12:31

and think, oh, well, keep buying those bonds. I

12:33

mean, so, so why do bonds perform well

12:36

here? Is it because people are just

12:38

looking for safety? So that's where money

12:40

goes a little bit. And it's, it's,

12:42

it's the reflexive historical trade stocks and

12:44

bonds is when you're going into a

12:47

recession, you're going into recession, business is

12:49

going to turn down, it's not, things

12:51

aren't going to earn as much money,

12:53

stocks, and therefore you want earnings that

12:55

are reliable and bonds provide you with reliable

12:58

earnings so it's very it's very typical market gets

13:00

hit you know the people who are sellers they

13:02

take that money and go to the safe haven

13:04

of bonds that's a very long historical pattern however

13:06

It's been broken in the past and this is

13:08

the thing we got to watch. We got to

13:11

watch the rate on the 10 year I mean

13:13

it went from mid four is 4344 down to

13:15

just under four I think it was three eight

13:17

nine or three nine something early you know earlier

13:19

right after the the big whack in the stock

13:21

market last week But now it started to go

13:24

back up again, and that's not good and that

13:26

can't have percent being happy and so if

13:28

the bond market starts to fall apart and

13:30

interest rates start to go higher then the

13:32

plan of whacking stocks to help bonds is

13:34

not working and I think that's what's going

13:36

to happen because I think this is a

13:39

sovereign debt crisis and in sovereign debt crises

13:41

people don't want to own the currency at

13:43

all they want to own the alternatives to

13:45

the currency which are gold and Bitcoin which

13:47

are gold and Bitcoin which is why by

13:49

the way I mean even though gold got

13:52

whacked on this whole downturn it's still very

13:54

close to record numbers yeah and Bitcoin is

13:56

not that far off it's all-time high and we're a

13:58

lot higher than we're a year ago. to buy Bitcoin.

14:00

With River you can set up zero fee

14:02

recurring buys making stacking sets effortless. And

14:05

while you're waiting for the perfect buying

14:07

opportunity, River lets you earn daily interest

14:09

on your cash balance paid in Bitcoin,

14:11

which outperforms most high-yield savings accounts.

14:14

What really sets River apart is

14:16

their unmatched dedication to security. You

14:18

have peace of mind knowing that River has

14:20

monthly proof of reserves and holds all

14:22

Bitcoin in multi-sig cold storage. And with

14:24

US-based phone support you'll always have

14:26

someone ready to help. So open an

14:29

account, go to river.com/WPD, and

14:31

earn up to $100 in

14:33

Bitcoin when you buy. That's r-i-v-e-r.com/W-B-D.

14:35

This episode is brought

14:37

to you by Anchorwatch. The thing

14:39

that keeps me up at night

14:42

is the idea of a critical

14:44

error with my Bitcoin called Storage.

14:46

This is where Anchorwatch comes

14:48

in. With Anchorwatch, you're

14:51

protected by their time-locked

14:53

multisig vault multi-zig vault

14:55

and with your own A-s the risk.

14:57

Whether you're worried about inheritance

14:59

planning, wrench attacks, natural disasters,

15:01

or your own mistakes, you're

15:03

protected by Anchorwatch. Rates for

15:06

fully ensured custody start as low

15:08

as 0.55% and are available for

15:10

individual and commercial customers located

15:12

in the US. Speak to Anchorwatch for a

15:14

quote and for more details about your security

15:17

options and coverage. Visit anchorwatch.com.

15:19

I also want to give a quick

15:22

shout to the Human Rights Foundation's

15:24

Financial Freedom Report. This is their weekly

15:26

newsletter that drops every Thursday and it

15:28

covers how authoritarian regimes use money as

15:30

a tool for control and how people

15:33

are pushing back against that using privacy

15:35

tools and of course Bitcoin. It's an

15:37

amazing newsletter, it's pure signal and

15:39

you can subscribe for free at

15:41

Financial Freedom report.org. And at least initially, Bitcoin

15:44

seemed to perform quite well to get to everything

15:46

else. Like it's obviously crashed a little bit since.

15:48

Do you think, I mean, the word decoupling has

15:50

been kind of everywhere, which is... I think a

15:53

bit cringe because it's way too early to say

15:55

that that's the case, but do you think there

15:57

is a chance that this is like a big

15:59

decoupling? Yeah, I wouldn't call it decoupling.

16:01

I would call it just, it's a,

16:04

there's a trend away from the perfect

16:06

correlation between Bitcoin as a liquidity indicator

16:08

and the NASDAQ. And so I think,

16:10

and, and, and what will happen, what

16:12

I think will happen is that, I

16:14

mean, I think that it will become

16:16

clear that Bitcoin actually is part

16:19

of the safe haven bid. Yeah. I mean,

16:21

they're, the two buyers of Bitcoin. The guys

16:23

like you and me that buy it because it's

16:25

digital gold. And we're going to hold it for

16:27

a long time and we're there because there's monetary

16:30

debasement. There are other guys who are buying it

16:32

based on liquidity flows, who are crypto bros and

16:34

everybody else. It's like, you know, this is a

16:36

triple Q on steroids and when the triple Q

16:38

goes up, this thing goes up and so I'm

16:41

buying it because it's got a lot of zip

16:43

in it. But those are, you know, those are

16:45

casual buyers. They're renting it. They're not really buying

16:47

it longer term. And when things go the wrong

16:50

way, they're out. And when things go the wrong

16:52

way, they're out. what happened more recently the last

16:54

couple days. I mean, in a real liquidity event,

16:56

and one could argue that we may be close

16:58

to one, and again, I don't want to, you

17:00

know, I don't want to be a panic marker,

17:03

or fear marker, this could all calm down, everything

17:05

would be fine in two months, okay, but it

17:07

could also go the other way and get worse.

17:09

And if it goes the other way and gets

17:11

worse, what will happen in my view is, you

17:13

know, we will trend towards what I call, you

17:15

know, you know, a liquidity event, a liquidity event,

17:18

where all correlations go to one. And let's just

17:20

look at the last one of those. The last

17:22

one of those was COVID. Okay. So when COVID

17:24

came along, you know, the stock market basically

17:26

went down, well, it went down 32%

17:28

before Apollo came in with the big

17:30

guns. But before that, it was down

17:32

about 20% and he started cutting rates.

17:35

And that didn't work. And then it

17:37

went down further. And for a while,

17:39

actually, in the early part of COVID,

17:41

and I've documented this, gold actually traded

17:43

actually traded up. It's a safe haven

17:45

bit, okay? And bonds actually did well

17:47

too. They traded up, okay, safe haven

17:49

bit. At the last part of COVID,

17:51

when it was really intense, you know,

17:53

when the market was plunging, gold was

17:55

down, Bitcoin was down, the market, I

17:57

mean, there was no place to hide.

17:59

Yeah. There was just, I mean, everybody, and

18:01

what happened is, you know, when, in that

18:03

kind of an event, what happened is, you

18:06

don't sell what you want to sell, you

18:08

sell what you have to sell, you've got

18:10

margin calls coming, and almost every, I mean,

18:12

I actually experienced myself, I'll tell you a story,

18:14

you know, I was, I had a bunch of silver. I

18:16

had it a depository. This is during

18:18

COVID. This is during COVID. I had

18:20

taken out a loan against the cylinders

18:23

that talked about in the book. I

18:25

had taken out a loan against the

18:27

silver. I pay a low rate of

18:29

interest and I just, because

18:31

I use a loan to speculate and

18:33

other stuff, right? And silver and COVID

18:35

went from $20, $21, $22,000 down to

18:37

$11. And like, you know, right before

18:40

the Powell came in with this liquidity

18:42

thing, I got a call from the

18:44

deposit. 24 hours we're gonna force liquid

18:46

at your silver at 11 bucks and

18:48

I was kind of like ooh that's

18:50

not good you know and so actually

18:52

I had to go sell some other stocks

18:54

okay in order to get the cash

18:56

yeah you know that I didn't want

18:58

to sell to not be liquid because

19:00

I knew silver 11 because I mean

19:02

two months later silver was at 25

19:04

right so selling an 11 but but

19:06

but that's how it happens right everybody

19:08

who's got any sort of form of

19:10

leverage you give a full seller you

19:12

become a forced seller right that's correlation

19:14

the tariff play and market's crashing. Do you

19:17

think part of this is Trump trying

19:19

to force the Fed's hand? Because him

19:21

and my drone pile have been like

19:23

button heads quite a bit. Absolutely. So

19:25

obviously like I think rate cuts are

19:27

kind of priced into the bond market

19:29

anyway. Yes. Do you think what's he

19:32

trying to make? Paul do. I think

19:34

he's trying to make Paul crump. I

19:36

mean just completely have to have to

19:38

pivot. Paul doesn't want to do it.

19:40

He wants to be vulgar. You know

19:42

the inflation picture is not good. Gunlock

19:44

was on the TV yesterday talking

19:47

about how inflation is heating up

19:49

again and there's evidence of that

19:51

in several places. I haven't seen

19:54

it. Yeah. And because he wouldn't

19:56

do it on his own. And

19:58

by the way. maybe Paul's

20:01

okay with being forced into

20:03

it, you know, they, he

20:05

needs political cover, right? If

20:07

you were to go and

20:09

start doing it right now

20:11

or say, oh yeah, you

20:13

know, you're, your, your Arthur

20:15

Burns, you're not Paul Volker.

20:17

I look at you, you're,

20:19

you're, you're Arthur Burns, you're

20:21

not Paul Volker. I look

20:24

at you, you're, you're printing,

20:26

before they came in, so

20:28

we're down another 20. Okay, that's

20:30

that's going to be that's going to be

20:32

a big deal. Yeah, and you know At

20:34

that point in time my sense is you

20:37

know things would start to not work and

20:39

Powell would would have to come in The

20:41

other thing I think is important to point

20:43

out in COVID when that thing happened when

20:46

that big plunge happened there was a time

20:48

where the US government bond market went no

20:50

bid. Okay, it was talked about in the in

20:52

the Treasury notes in the Fed notes and That

20:55

was what, I mean, that's just not acceptable. Yeah.

20:57

And when that happens, that's when they know they

20:59

have to come back with all this. And, you

21:01

know, we've seen Powell turn on a time, right?

21:03

I mean, inflation is a transitory until it's not,

21:05

you know, we're never, not even thinking about thinking

21:08

rates until suddenly we're gonna jack them up really quick.

21:10

You know, we're not even thinking about stopping jacking them

21:12

until the, you know, you know, 10 year goes to

21:14

five and oh, oh, no, no, no, no, no, we're

21:16

done, we're done. No, we're done. Basically, if

21:19

we get it down 20% market, Paul

21:21

is going to become a dove so

21:23

fast your head will spin. He's going

21:25

to turn around. And what he's going

21:27

to say is... Look, we recognize that

21:29

there is inflation risk, but having, you

21:31

know, but with the lowering of demand

21:33

and the downturn that we're seeing in

21:35

the economy, our employment mandate is more

21:37

important than our inflation mandate, and therefore

21:39

we are going to, you know, chop

21:42

rates, do this, you know, blah, blah,

21:44

blah, go to QE. So that's why

21:46

the bond market, the yields going up

21:48

again is kind of the indicator. I think

21:50

that's right. I think the bond market is

21:52

sniffing gold, but... should love gold if you're

21:54

in Bitcoin because it's such a good leading

21:56

indicator. Yeah. The fact that gold had a

21:59

relentless bit gold. is up 50% in the

22:01

last year. You know, so it went

22:03

from 2070 area back in March of

22:05

last year up to, you know, 31

22:07

and change, you know, not long ago.

22:10

It's off that is at 3,000 roughly

22:12

now. But, you know, my God, there

22:14

are many years when gold goes

22:16

up 50%. Yeah. That's a signal.

22:18

I definitely want to get more

22:20

into percent, but while we're on

22:22

gold, what went on with all

22:24

the gold leaving London against New

22:26

York? Yeah, I don't know. What

22:28

do you think they've done with?

22:30

What do you think they've done?

22:32

A lot of the other guys

22:34

on Twitter are very smart who

22:36

follow these flows suggest might be

22:38

having. A couple things. One, I'm

22:40

pretty sure based on the forensics

22:42

that have been done that we don't

22:44

have all the gold we're saying we haven't

22:46

in Fort Knox. And the percent is lying.

22:49

And the percent is lying. And the percent

22:51

is lying when he says, oh yeah. It's

22:53

there you can come see it. I think

22:55

they'll audit it. Ron and Manley is a

22:57

guy on Twitter who's a gold guy I've

23:00

known for years and very excellent analyst and

23:02

he he he dug some stuff up some

23:04

forensics stuff up from the 60s if you're

23:06

calling the 60s there's something called the London

23:08

Gold Pool Before we went off the standard

23:11

of 71, we were suppressing, that pool was

23:13

suppressing gold. A $35 reference price from

23:15

Bretton Woods was being beat up. And

23:17

so, you know, the central banks had

23:20

to sell gold to keep the price

23:22

from going up. And he's uncovered some

23:24

documents that would suggest that some of

23:26

that gold came out of Fort Knox.

23:28

That would be crazy. Right, but back to

23:31

you. You asked an earlier question. What do

23:33

I think the goal? Why do I really

23:35

think all the goals coming back? I think

23:37

it's pretty simple actually. I think what's going

23:39

on is that the knowledge that you have and

23:41

that I have a lot of people have about

23:43

the unsteadiness and how messed up

23:45

the fiscal situation is in the United States.

23:47

That's spreading. Yeah. Oh 100%. Right. I mean

23:49

like that's really spreading. And so, you know,

23:52

you know, it used to be Paul Tudor

23:54

Jones saying, Paul Tudor Jones saying, saying, saying,

23:56

hey. you know we got a monetary

23:58

debasement now it's redaleo now it's Larry

24:00

Fink. I mean we got and you know

24:02

you're a billionaire and you know a lot

24:04

of billionaires in the United States and you're

24:07

thinking to yourself you know maybe I need

24:09

some gold and you're aware of the paper gold

24:11

issue and maybe you just say hey just

24:13

go to the comics and let's take delivery of

24:15

X million. I mean I I had a

24:17

client you know one of my clients who

24:19

bought you know 30 million dollars worth of gold

24:22

billion. I mean he's not a client anymore

24:24

but you know it's I mean billionaires do

24:26

that kind of that kind of thing. Oh yeah,

24:28

I've got a paper claim. They want physical

24:30

gold in a vault that they can see

24:32

and touch because they're aware of the paper

24:34

games. On the Larry Think thing, did you

24:36

see recently in his letter that he mentioned

24:38

that he mentioned that Bitcoin could become wild.

24:40

So he said it could become, I think

24:42

he said, potentially a neutral asset. Yeah, well,

24:44

and I think he even said replace the

24:46

dollar of the exact wording. Yes, I think

24:49

that's right. But he actually replaced that's what

24:51

he said, that's what he said. And he

24:53

kind of said. And he kind of said. I

24:55

don't really want this to happen, but it

24:57

could. I didn't hear that. I didn't

24:59

pick up that piece, but yeah, I mean, look,

25:01

the problem is getting to be pretty widely known. And this is, what

25:04

is this, the Overton window or the common knowledge game, right? I mean, we're

25:06

kind of, I mean, that's why I feel like we're at the tipping point

25:08

here. I mean, you know, my book, I mean, you know, I was

25:10

lucky because I had a race to get it out. My book couldn't have

25:12

come out at a better time, right? I mean, especially if we do get

25:14

the big print suit. Well, you know, yeah, and I was terrified that

25:16

would have what happened before the would happen before the would happen before the

25:18

what happened before the book came before the book came before the book came

25:20

before the book came out before the book came out before the book

25:22

came out, it would happen before the book, it would happen before the book,

25:25

it would happen before the book, it would happen before the book, it

25:27

would happen before the book, it, it, it, it, it, it, it, it, it,

25:29

it, it, it would, it would, it Yeah, I think and we could be

25:31

two weeks away. I mean, let the market fall another

25:33

20%. You know, what's my guesstimate? You know,

25:35

I think it happens in the next six

25:37

months. Wow, that's my sense. I mean, well,

25:39

you know, it depends on a lot of

25:42

things. I mean, let me tell you some

25:44

other stuff about the Trump stuff that I

25:46

think is important, okay? You know, look, they

25:48

want to resource stuff. I mean, and I

25:50

think Lutnik is just, you know, I love

25:52

him because he's a Bitcoiner. Yeah, he gets

25:54

Bitcoin, he believes in Bitcoin, okay. But he's

25:56

a bond salesman. Yeah. Okay, and he's just,

25:59

he's just happy, happy. happy happy and the

26:01

whole notion that we're going to reassure all

26:03

I mean it took 50 years for the

26:05

system to get this F-top okay and you

26:07

know we're not going to reassure all

26:09

that in one presidential term right I

26:11

mean there's no there's just no chance

26:13

and there's no American who's going to

26:16

sit here and assemble iPhones for you

26:18

know five dollars a day that's just

26:20

that's just not and we don't want

26:22

them to have a three thousand dollar

26:24

iPhone so you know I mean Again, I think

26:26

I'm glad they're trying to disrupt and

26:28

take us in the right direction, but

26:31

the notion that we can quickly solve

26:33

this problem is a fantasy. Yes. Just

26:35

like Doge was a fantasy. I mean,

26:37

Doge is a good thing. It's going

26:39

in the right direction, but we've got

26:42

a gaping two-point-something trillion-trillion-dollar deficit. And, you

26:44

know, kind of like we're saying yesterday

26:46

on CNBC, he thinks maybe those just

26:48

saved a hundred million a year on

26:50

a billion a year. Okay. Well, that's

26:53

2.2, a hundred, we've got a ways

26:55

to go. I think the dosing, like,

26:57

obviously, getting rid of corruption government is a great thing, but.

26:59

It's I think it was naive. And so I listen to

27:01

you. It's a good thing to do. It's just yeah, but

27:04

yeah, maybe naive in what they stated. Yes, yeah, I mean,

27:06

Elon, I mean, this is classic Elon, right? Elon, we can

27:08

save two trillion dollars a year. No, you can't. Unless you

27:10

cut two trillion dollars a year. No, you can't. Unless you

27:12

cut Social Security. No, we can save two trillion dollars a

27:14

year. No, you can. Unless you can. It's a two trillion

27:17

dollars. It's a two trillion dollars. It's a two trillion dollars.

27:19

It's a two trillion dollars. It's a two trillion dollars. It's

27:21

a million dollars. It's a million dollars. It's a million dollars.

27:23

It's a million dollars. It's a million dollars. It's a million

27:25

dollars. It's a million dollars. It's a million dollars. It's

27:27

a million dollars. It's a million dollars.

27:29

It's a million dollars. It's a million.

27:32

It's a is he just, he gets

27:34

way out over his skis. I mean

27:36

in 2018, he said you're gonna be

27:38

able to buy a Tesla and rent

27:40

it out as a taxi immediately. And

27:42

the self-driving wasn't anywhere near that. But

27:44

to give him credit, I wrote in

27:46

a Tesla Y, you know, a couple

27:49

of months ago, back in

27:51

Massachusetts, you know, with my partner,

27:53

and you know, he said, take us

27:55

to downtown Boston, the damn thing drove

27:57

us the whole way there flawlessly.

28:00

Austin just a complete driverless taxi like

28:02

work. Okay perfect I mean it's weird and

28:04

it's very is like very cool and dystopian

28:06

I mean three or four years ago when

28:08

somebody said we're gonna have self-driving in a few

28:10

years I didn't believe it yeah but but to

28:13

be frank I mean I was I was wrong

28:15

dead-ass wrong I mean we're you know they have

28:17

self-driving now they really do yeah and just one

28:19

other thing on the on the on the gold

28:22

side and did you see I don't know

28:24

if it was yesterday the other day the day

28:26

the day the day the day before Germany came

28:28

out saying they may try and reassure them. Yeah,

28:30

yeah. Good luck. Do you think that's impossible for

28:33

them to do? Well, no, it's not impossible for

28:35

them to ask. I mean, the delivery time, you

28:37

know, might be slower than they want.

28:39

And they did this once earlier, or

28:42

this was, this happened again, Rona Manley

28:44

is the best source on all this

28:46

stuff. They did this once again, or,

28:49

you know, a few years back, and

28:51

they asked for a lot of their

28:53

gold back, and we quoted them like

28:56

seven years to do it. They did

28:58

this once again, or, you know, a

29:00

few years back. We returned the gold

29:02

in terms of allow, which really, I mean, that's

29:05

kind of suspicious. Right? That we didn't

29:07

have the ones you sent us. I mean, in

29:09

theory, when you're depositing a gold with somebody, you're

29:11

supposed to be able to get the same thing

29:13

back. We didn't give them the same thing back.

29:16

So a lot of us looked at that and

29:18

said, huh, I wonder why that happened. What happened

29:20

to the original, right? I mean, did you have

29:22

to go and then replace it and replace it?

29:25

Right. Yeah, it's either like terrible logistics

29:27

and you don't know where you

29:29

put in the gold, which is

29:31

bad enough, or you don't have

29:33

the same gold. You don't have

29:35

the same gold because you use

29:37

it for something else, you had to

29:39

replace it to backfill it. Right. Yeah,

29:41

so on them, I'm kind of jumping

29:44

back and forth on the Bessent stuff.

29:46

He came out with kind of two

29:48

or three objectives. One was to weaken

29:50

the dollar policy. you know, or he

29:52

wants the dollar to remain the reserve

29:54

currency, but and other times he's even

29:56

said he wants it to be strong

29:59

vis-a-vis other currents. But in fact, they

30:01

have to, mathematically, they have to weaken

30:03

it. If he wants to accomplish an

30:05

elimination of trippence dilemma, the dollar has

30:07

to be massively devalued, in my opinion.

30:09

And the terrorists have done that to

30:11

a degree? They have. Do you think

30:13

that's part of the reason they've done

30:15

this? Yes, I do. Yeah, I do.

30:17

And then the second part of this,

30:19

and this is more out there, is

30:21

this theory that, um... Because the other thing

30:23

he obviously wants to do was to issue

30:25

on the long end of the bond market

30:28

again. Is this intentionally crashing stocks to be

30:30

able to do that? I think I think

30:32

he is. I actually think he is. He's

30:34

too smart not to understand what the implications

30:36

of what he's doing would be. Yeah. I

30:39

mean and and. You know, I think they're

30:41

figuring, look, we've got a stock bubble, and

30:43

to the degree that goes down now, we

30:45

might have a chance of blaming it on

30:47

Biden and all his policies. I think that

30:50

makes a lot, or made a lot of

30:52

sense, until this tariff thing became such big

30:54

news that now it seems like a Trump

30:56

issue. I think it is going to be

30:58

a Trump issue. And further, sadly, you

31:01

know, If, you know, look, what they're hoping

31:03

is that the deregulation and

31:05

AI and productivity improvements and a

31:07

lot of the good things that

31:09

they're doing, you know, bringing onshoring,

31:12

bringing jobs back here, bringing businesses

31:14

back here, they're hoping that all

31:16

of that will kick in to

31:18

offset the effect of a declining

31:20

stock market. I mean, let's just go

31:22

through a declining stock market, what

31:24

it means. And I don't think

31:26

the average... person necessarily thinks about this,

31:29

but we're running a six or

31:31

seven percent budget deficit right now. That's

31:33

with full employment and in theory

31:35

a reasonably healthy economy. Okay. In

31:37

the last two big downturns, 2008 and

31:40

2000, the stock, the deficit went up

31:42

between six and nine percent of

31:44

total GDP. So, and in like California,

31:46

it's been shown that, you know, a

31:48

big part of California's budget, when the

31:50

stock market goes down to California. you

31:52

know state really doesn't the budget becomes

31:54

a mess because they make so much

31:56

money off capital gains taxes for all

31:59

the technical entrepreneurs that live there. And

32:01

that's true in the United States too, and

32:03

I don't know the exact percentage. I wish

32:05

somebody, somebody hasn't sent it to

32:07

me, but some meaningful percentage of US

32:09

federal income taxes are based on capital

32:11

gains and stock gains. Well, you don't

32:13

have those when your stock market goes

32:15

down 40%. And so, so the other thing that

32:17

happens is unemployment goes up.

32:20

And so you've got unemployment

32:22

insurance, you've got bigger food

32:24

stamps, you've got all the,

32:26

you know, all the social

32:28

spending increases when you have

32:30

a downturn. And so the

32:32

combination of those two things,

32:34

you know, okay, so those

32:36

maybe cuts a couple hundred

32:38

million, but those two things are going

32:40

to shove it up the real wrong

32:42

way, putting, you know, into a bigger

32:45

fiscal doom loop, right? So it's,

32:47

you know what I mean? that

32:49

I don't think Jesus Christ himself

32:51

could fix this thing. I just

32:53

don't. I think the damn thing

32:55

is broken. And what I'm terrified

32:58

of is that, you know, it's going

33:00

to be broken enough that, you know,

33:02

in four years, the, you know, the blue team

33:04

will win because... you know the voter not fully

33:06

understanding everything that's going on you know tends to

33:09

think I mean if you look at all the

33:11

but if you look at a number of series

33:13

of elections here what are the voters done they've

33:15

thrown the bum out yeah do you know what

33:18

I mean there hasn't been a two-term president for

33:20

a while I think it was since Obama right

33:22

so you know my sense is if things don't

33:24

get better in four years they're gonna throw them

33:26

out and we're gonna go you know massively socialist

33:29

right So that's the theory that I could entirely

33:31

buy is that Trump's doing this now to

33:33

try and blame on Biden, whether he'll successfully

33:35

do that, I don't know, and then run

33:38

it really hot into the midterms to try

33:40

and like strengthen his... I think that's exactly

33:42

right. I mean, I think, you know, and

33:45

his hope, I assume, I think what his

33:47

hope is, is that he will, they will

33:49

let inflation run hot. Yeah. They have to

33:51

let inflation run hot, but inflation is what's

33:54

killing everybody. But if inflation is running hot

33:56

and everybody has a job, you know, because

33:58

of the re-shoring and all these new... programs,

34:00

well, then maybe people will live

34:03

with it. And, but here's, here's

34:05

my, I guess my point is, I think

34:07

Trump and his team have got to

34:09

get one hell of a lot better

34:11

at messaging and communicating

34:14

what the hell they're doing. Because, I

34:16

mean, they did a little bit of,

34:18

they're doing it a little bit, but

34:20

they got to, they got to, they

34:23

got to, they got to, they got

34:25

to amp that up because otherwise they're going

34:27

to lose. You know, the other side has

34:29

promised me stimmies and you know, this, that,

34:32

and the other, right? I mean, and they're

34:34

going to go over there. Yeah, they're going

34:36

to go over there. So you said that

34:38

you think recession is very possible in the

34:40

kind of short term, I guess. People have

34:43

been kind of screaming recession for a few

34:45

years now. And we've not really seen it.

34:47

Do you think they'll let that happen or

34:49

do you think the Fed steps in and

34:51

does the big print print before before? So

34:53

let's just come on. First of all, let's examine

34:56

why those of us who've been screaming it

34:58

for a couple years have been wrong. We've

35:00

been wrong because federal government spending has made

35:02

up the difference. And remember, the government doesn't

35:04

do anything. It doesn't produce anything. It doesn't

35:06

produce any. It doesn't produce goods and services.

35:08

It just prints money and gives people jobs.

35:10

I mean, I've heard there's kind of a

35:12

recession in housing in Washington DC because of

35:14

all the U.S. aid people and the cutbacks

35:16

that all the agencies are going through all

35:18

the agencies are going through. it was fake

35:20

spending that was keeping the government that

35:22

was keeping you know the appearance of

35:24

the economy being healthy yeah take all

35:27

that spending out economy is going to

35:29

turn down okay and the thing that

35:31

I think is important is just for

35:33

people understand how reflexive things are you

35:35

know I mean at the margin so

35:37

I mean okay the top 10% of

35:39

the country was we saw the statistic

35:41

recently was is about 50% of consumer

35:43

spending Okay, and the top 10% of

35:45

the country, you know, has more wealth

35:47

than the rest, fine. Top 10% of

35:49

the country is in the stock market,

35:51

okay. They have retirement accounts, they're boomers

35:53

in many cases. You whack their wealth

35:55

by 40%. Guess what happens? They don't

35:57

buy the second house. They don't buy... the

36:00

new car. They don't take the

36:02

trip. They don't go to the

36:04

restaurant. You know, it just, it

36:06

flows through everything. Yeah. And, you

36:09

know, Trump says we're going to

36:11

help Main Street, but, you know,

36:13

having high unemployment doesn't necessarily help

36:15

Main Street, right? And so, you

36:18

know, it... Danny, it's a mess.

36:20

And so, but, but, but having

36:22

said that, they will start, you

36:24

know, my sense is, and because

36:26

the pattern is just so clear,

36:28

they will start printing money, but

36:31

they, you know, and a lot

36:33

of people think, well, okay, like,

36:35

you know, there's some well-known people

36:37

in our space who were like,

36:39

yeah, we'll be in new all-time

36:41

highs in the stock market. I'm

36:43

like, no, that's not happening. When

36:45

a bubble with a big print, even

36:47

with a big print, because when a

36:50

bubble bursts, all those excesses get corrected. I

36:52

mean, we had a big print in 2008

36:54

and it didn't happen. We had a big

36:56

print in 2020. Well, in 2020, it kind

36:58

of happened, but we had a big print

37:00

coming off of 2000. It didn't happen. I

37:03

mean, the bubble is in everything. They don't

37:05

have another layer to build it on. I

37:07

mean, in 2000, we built a housing bubble

37:09

after a housing bubble after it and 2008.

37:11

It took a long time, they printed a

37:13

lot over a period of time, and we

37:16

kind of got an everything bubble going

37:18

as a result of the carry trade

37:20

and the cheap money. But in 2022,

37:22

you know, they turned it around and

37:24

brought the stock market back up to

37:26

new highs, but, you know, it's teetering

37:28

in my view. And so how long

37:30

do you think it would be until

37:32

we saw like all-time eyes again then?

37:34

I don't know. If this is the

37:36

bubble that I think it is, I

37:38

think it'd be 10 or 15 or

37:40

15 years. Yeah, I think. When was

37:42

the last time we had 10 or

37:45

15 years? Well, I think from 29

37:47

to 40 something was 25

37:49

years. So the crash of

37:51

29 took about 25 years

37:53

to recover from. I think

37:55

there was a period of

37:57

time in the 60s from

37:59

60s. something the peak in 67

38:02

or 6869 wasn't exceeded until 82

38:04

or 3 so it was it

38:06

was a good you know 15

38:09

years in that particular one I

38:11

mean there are periods of time

38:13

when stocks do not do well

38:15

do you think this is going

38:17

to be worse than 2008 I

38:20

do wow yeah I do

38:22

because it's in everything the

38:24

misallocation of resources it's in

38:26

everything and you know having

38:28

said that There's a

38:30

way that it's not worse than

38:33

2008 for stocks, and that is

38:35

we almost do a crack-up

38:37

boom. Explain what that is.

38:39

Yeah, so a crack-up boom is

38:42

where they literally print so

38:44

much money that, I mean, this is,

38:46

I mean, in countries where currencies

38:48

have been failing. or have failed,

38:50

like the famous charts of Venezuela

38:53

and Weimar Germany, stock market booms.

38:55

Because the money is worth nothing.

38:57

And the stocks, I mean, remember,

39:00

stocks do represent a claim on

39:02

the earnings power of a business.

39:04

If the business can adjust the

39:06

prices to account for the inflation,

39:09

well, then it does have some

39:11

earnings power. So, you know, I

39:13

think it's entirely possible that if

39:15

we go into red-hot printing. We could

39:17

reach nominal new highs much quicker

39:19

than I'm talking about. But, you

39:21

know, so what that, the question

39:23

that gets asked there is, is

39:25

this the big one where we

39:27

go into? Because a crack-up boom

39:30

is, you're on your way to

39:32

hyperinflation or extremely high rates of

39:34

inflation, you know, like Israel had

39:36

and others have had various times.

39:38

Are we going to that? I

39:40

don't know. I mean, you know,

39:42

here's a scenario, right? You know,

39:44

we have the four years here. Trump's

39:46

thing doesn't work. We print a lot

39:48

of money, but the money remains relatively

39:51

sound. It's not a crazy big print.

39:53

The economy muddles along. The red team

39:55

gets thrown out. Blue team comes in.

39:57

Andrew Yang is now vice president, you

39:59

know. I don't know who's president,

40:02

maybe, you know, whatever. Stephanie

40:04

Keldon is now Treasury Secretary,

40:06

and they do universal basic

40:08

income for low-income folks. They

40:10

increase taxes on everybody. They

40:12

do massive stimmies, you know, to help

40:14

people, and they make it very clear

40:16

they're not going to worry about government

40:18

deficits. I mean, you know, Bitcoin will be

40:21

a million and goal to be, you know,

40:23

12,000, 15, right? I mean, and that's, and

40:25

the stock market might be hitting all time

40:27

new highs. I mean, that's a scenario that

40:30

could happen. I mean, that's a bit of

40:32

a terrifying scenario. Well, I think

40:34

so. Yeah. Because what happens to

40:36

society in that scenario? Yeah. Well,

40:38

look, society is going to have

40:40

difficulties almost no matter where we

40:42

go because we've gone into this

40:44

bad condition, Keynesian, with Keynesian economics.

40:46

I mean, let's talk about the

40:49

positive. Let's talk about how we

40:51

fix this. We've got to return

40:53

to sound money. And there's a

40:55

chapter in the book called Policy Response

40:57

where I wrote the speech I think

40:59

the president should give. I wrote it.

41:01

And it's pretty simple. It comes

41:04

back and it says, look, Keynesianism

41:06

is flawed. Here's why we should

41:08

be pursuing productivity where we balance

41:11

savings with investment and let the

41:13

interest rate find its natural market-driven

41:15

level. Okay, that's the basis of it.

41:17

We pursue this Keynesian model, which is

41:20

wrong, and therefore what we need to

41:22

do is we need to return to

41:24

sound money. So starting immediately, gold, silver,

41:26

and Bitcoin are going to be money.

41:28

They're going to be legal tender with

41:30

no capital gains tax. So you can transact

41:32

in anything you want. You can use a

41:34

dollar, or let them all be free. So

41:37

that's step one. Step two. We are going

41:39

to eliminate the Federal Reserve. There's going to

41:41

be nobody backstopping the banks. There will be

41:43

nobody buying bonds. There'll be nobody. If a

41:45

bank fails, a bank fails. So you better

41:47

start thinking about where you're going to put

41:49

your money in your bank deposits. And three,

41:51

we're going to eliminate the FDIC. So you're not

41:53

going to, I mean, we all know it's a joke

41:56

anyway. I mean, one of the ways they managed to

41:58

print money was like in Silicon Valley Bank. of money

42:00

and they did that because you know

42:02

Ackman cried and they talked about a

42:04

systematic banking crisis and so they came

42:06

in and they broke the law they

42:08

broke the what Dodd-Frank said they would

42:10

never do they did it so as

42:12

long as we have a backstop on

42:14

the banks the banks are going

42:17

to continually over lever Make a lot

42:19

of money, when things go wrong, they're going

42:21

to turn around and say bail me out.

42:23

And what they've got, the banks have done

42:25

is they've effectively got a gun to the

42:27

head of the economy and they said, give

42:29

us our damn money when we make a

42:31

mistake or else we're going to blow your

42:33

brains out. And it happened in 2008, it

42:35

happened in 2020 to a degree and it

42:37

could happen again. So that's the problem. That's

42:39

the underlying problem. And so if we return

42:41

to sound money, that won't happen anymore. And,

42:43

you know, let's not kid ourselves. Getting from

42:45

here to there, it's not going to be

42:47

pretty. And it's not going to be fun.

42:49

And they're going to be losers, particularly debt

42:51

holders are going to be massive losers. People

42:53

on fixed incomes, older people who don't have

42:56

their earnings history in front, you know, earnings

42:58

capability in front of them. However, once we

43:00

return to sound money, it's going to be

43:02

really great. I mean, like, like, like, I

43:05

was on a podcast the other day with

43:07

a guy from Argentina from Argentina. She'd immediately

43:09

go to the group of grocery store by

43:12

the food because it would be more expensive

43:14

one day later. Yeah. He said it was

43:16

horrible. Everything fell apart. It was awful. Okay.

43:18

Nobody had enough to eat. Everyone was

43:20

at each other's throats. The whole nine

43:22

yards. Currency totally failed. They reset to a

43:25

dollar. They started using the dollar. Basically

43:27

a dollar standard currency in Argentina. He

43:29

said within six months or a year.

43:31

Things were great. It was much better. And

43:33

that's their equivalent of going to a

43:35

sound money. Yeah, I mean the dollar

43:38

is still unsound, but back then it

43:40

was a lot of sounder than what

43:42

they had. Yeah. And that if you

43:45

read history, that's the case. I mean,

43:47

there have been many, many hyperinflation. The

43:49

problem is it usually leaves a big

43:52

scar, like it did in Germany,

43:54

which then led to them falling

43:56

for the Hitler lie. Yeah. But

43:58

hyperinflation once they're over. I mean,

44:00

human beings just want to get up

44:02

and go to work and do honest things,

44:05

take care of their families, and know

44:07

that they can live in a secure

44:09

fashion. And sound money allows that. Unsound

44:11

money makes it a challenge, an enormous

44:13

challenge, right? I mean, I just did

44:15

the show with Joe, which was entirely

44:18

about this. And when you say sound

44:20

money, do you think it's more likely

44:22

that gold fills that hole, at least,

44:24

in the good question. It's a great

44:26

question. Well, gold as flawed as you

44:29

and I both. Sadly, well, it's a

44:31

complicated question because I think for some

44:33

countries and some people, that would clearly,

44:35

that's right. I mean, China is betting

44:37

on a reset based on gold. They've

44:40

accumulated a lot more gold and they

44:42

say they have, we know they're doing

44:44

that, okay? And they don't like Bitcoin,

44:46

they outlawed Bitcoin, mining, etc. So, the

44:48

United States has a chance to leapfrog

44:50

China. Okay. Politically, if we were

44:52

to say we're going to a sound money

44:54

standard and it's based on Bitcoin, we would

44:57

actually hop in front of China. Now, whether

44:59

we're smart enough to do that or not,

45:01

who knows? And I've talked to Jeff Booth

45:03

about this a lot. I mean, we both

45:06

kind of agree that there's a good chance

45:08

that they try gold before they get to

45:10

Bitcoin. Yeah. And the reason is just because

45:12

it's just still so early, you know, and

45:14

from the perspective, not from yours in my

45:17

perspective, but from the perspective of the world,

45:19

it's untested and it's just not deep

45:21

enough yet to go to a Bitcoin

45:23

standard today. This episode is brought to

45:25

you by CASA. I've been using CASA

45:27

since 2019 and I can't recommend

45:29

them enough. CASA have options for all

45:32

Bitcoiners from a 2 of 3 Multisig

45:34

to a 3 of 5 and a

45:36

private client option for absolute best in

45:38

class security. CASA also do

45:40

inheritance which are very recently set

45:42

up and it really couldn't be easier.

45:44

My inheritance plan has gone from a

45:46

vague treasure map for my wife to

45:49

a rock solid security plan

45:51

that have total confidence in. To find

45:53

out more about CASA, go to casa.io.

45:55

This episode is also brought to you by Ledger.

45:57

If you're serious about protecting your Bitcoin...

45:59

Ledger has the solution you need. Their

46:02

hardware wallets give you complete

46:04

control over your private keys, ensuring

46:06

that your Bitcoin stays safe from

46:08

hacks, fishing and malware. With Ledger's

46:10

easy-to-use devices and the Ledger Live

46:13

app, managing your Bitcoin has never

46:15

been more convenient. Whether you're a long-time

46:17

holder or new to the world of

46:19

Bitcoin, Ledger makes it simple to keep

46:21

your assets protected. If you want to

46:24

find out more, visit ledger.com and

46:26

secure your Bitcoin and secure your

46:28

Bitcoin today. On April the 11th to

46:30

the 13th we're going to be back

46:33

in Bedford and we have an amazing

46:35

lineup of speakers including X p.m. Liz

46:37

Truss, Preston Pish, Alex Gladstein, Nat Brunel,

46:39

James Lavish and so many more. We

46:41

then have a football day where we'll hopefully

46:43

see Rail Bedford win the league again. Last

46:46

year was amazing. This year is going to

46:48

be better but tickets will sell out for

46:50

this so if you want to come head

46:52

over to cheatcode at UK and grab a

46:54

ticket. Do you think the strategic

46:56

Bitcoin Reserve is kind of their hedge in

46:58

this where they may do both? And the

47:01

Bitcoin is there in the background just in

47:03

case? Yes. Oh, it's more than a hedge.

47:05

I think, I think, I think, I think,

47:07

I mean, Sailor knows that, I think, Besent

47:10

knows that, I think maybe even Trump knows

47:12

it, although sometimes I wonder about his understanding

47:14

of meme coins, but I mean, but I've

47:16

been told that he was just misled and

47:18

it wasn't really him, but anyway him, but

47:21

anyway. Yes, I mean I do and

47:23

you know, Lumis understands it for sure. You

47:25

know, so, you know, I think, I mean,

47:27

well, Jason Lowry will tell you, the CIA,

47:30

the CIA understands it, the Pentagon understands it.

47:32

I mean, they're, I mean, it is the

47:34

soundest form of money in the world, and

47:36

so it's ultimately going to dominate. I mean,

47:39

this is safest point about. you know you

47:41

can't be fighting with you know swords and

47:43

blades when you know gunpowder arrives I mean

47:45

you just can't yeah and so this is

47:48

gunpowder I mean this is a form of

47:50

money that can't be diluted full-stop it's the

47:52

hardest money ever created so with that as a

47:54

backdrop that's where we it's where everybody will

47:56

go has to go so you know it's just

47:59

game theory of who wants to be smart

48:01

and get there on the early, you know,

48:03

on the early, in the early days, and

48:05

who wants to be slow about it. So,

48:07

and I think they'll get there eventually, but

48:09

I do, I could totally see a

48:11

gold interim step. Absolutely. With

48:14

the strategic reserve, obviously, they're

48:16

most likely going to start acquiring

48:18

a Bitcoin through that. We've yet

48:20

to see it, but I imagine

48:22

that will happen. And Cynthia Loomisbill

48:25

is. from what I've heard far more

48:27

likely to pass than they originally thought

48:29

it was. I think that's right. I

48:31

think it's gaining some momentum. Yeah. And

48:33

then the third part of that is

48:35

probably the bit bonds. Yeah, that's a

48:37

brilliant idea, right? It seems like a

48:39

genius idea. The thing that I can't

48:41

quite figure out is if that's like

48:43

a massive signal that the US has lost

48:45

its faith in the dollar and what that

48:47

means for the rest of the world. Well.

48:49

I don't know, but I mean, so

48:52

is that my understanding of bit bonds?

48:54

I mean, you're talking about Andrew Hone

48:56

and the things he's proposed. Yeah, in

48:59

the sense of like Brian Estez is

49:01

doing. Yeah, right. Yeah. Well, yeah, from

49:03

Bitcoiners, it makes totally sense. I mean,

49:05

I haven't seen anybody in the administration

49:08

embrace bit bonds, right? I mean,

49:10

I haven't seen anybody in the

49:12

administration embrace bit bonds, embrace bit

49:14

bonds, right? I mean, I haven't

49:17

seen anybody in the administration, She's

49:19

proposed the same kind of thing

49:21

with gold. Yes. You know, and

49:23

yes, I mean, I think, I

49:25

mean, as Sailor points out, I

49:27

mean, the smartest thing we could

49:30

do right now would be to

49:32

sell all our gold, because we

49:34

probably don't have it, and use

49:36

the proceeds to buy Bitcoin. Yeah.

49:38

The problem behind that, you know,

49:41

and I'm sure even Sailor would

49:43

admit this, you know, in private,

49:45

is that that would just destroy

49:47

the dollar. Well, because buying, it's the

49:49

buying the Bitcoin, it's the buying the

49:51

Bitcoin that would do it. Yeah, not

49:54

the selling the gold per se. Yeah,

49:56

okay. It would be, we would say,

49:58

we are making a bet that. this is

50:00

a much better asset to hold than our

50:02

dollar. Yeah. And therefore, you know, follow us

50:04

in that bet. Right. And if we do see

50:06

the stock market continue to crash,

50:09

go into recession, it's this bloodbath

50:11

that you're talking about. What do

50:13

you think Bitcoin does? Because like

50:15

historically, like COVID being the most recent example,

50:17

like Bitcoin goes down with everything else. Do

50:20

you think that breaks? I do. I think,

50:22

but, but not. Not immediately and I was

50:24

at a mining disrupt a few weeks ago

50:27

and I said guys I was there they

50:29

were asking these are minors they're asking what

50:31

do you give us your macro outlook and

50:33

I said you know honestly we I think

50:36

the stock market starting to get wobbly I

50:38

think the stock market is going to break

50:40

it turns out I was right about that

50:42

and I think when it does break we're

50:45

going to see 70K Bitcoin and turns out

50:47

I was right about that yeah but I

50:49

said that's the bad news the good

50:51

news is that's the market breaking You

50:53

know, I mean, Bitcoin is like this

50:55

great liquidity which it tells you almost

50:57

how much liquidity there is in the

51:00

system when there's a lot of liquidity

51:02

it goes up. Yeah. When it goes

51:04

down. So basically, you know, what in

51:06

my view, what will happen is we

51:08

are headed to a big print in

51:10

the next three to six months, you

51:12

know, probably, you know, more like the

51:14

three. And at the end of the

51:16

year, I still think we'll be at

51:18

140 to, you know, 200. I mean,

51:20

perhaps the, you know, 400, 500, 500,

51:22

500, 500, 500, 500, 500, But it's

51:24

clear to me that the correlation is

51:26

being broken and more and more people

51:28

are coming to see this as digital

51:30

gold. and you know the in sovereign

51:32

debt crisis gold does incredibly well

51:34

and so Bitcoin as digital gold

51:37

should also do incredibly well so

51:39

if that's the case do you

51:41

think that means the kind of

51:43

classic four-year cycles of Bitcoin maybe

51:45

over no not really because we're

51:47

kind of in a four-year and

51:50

what what I mean so what

51:52

would the peak of this four-year

51:54

looking at kind of 26-ish yeah

51:56

I think like end of this

51:58

year maybe early Look, macro events

52:01

can probably break that cycle

52:03

because this is, I mean, that cycle

52:05

was I think driven on a supply

52:07

thing and, you know, technological adoption and

52:09

some other stuff that were the underlying

52:12

cause of that cycle. I think we're

52:14

now in a situation where, you know,

52:16

this has really become a macro asset.

52:18

I mean, you've got, you know, look,

52:20

we've got the ETFs. You know, we've

52:22

got nation-state FOMO going on, right?

52:25

I mean, you've got, you know,

52:27

the UAE buying it, you've got

52:29

the Saudis probably buying it, Oban

52:32

and McMitter, they have it. Yeah.

52:34

I mean, and at this stage

52:36

and time, when we did that

52:38

strategic Bitcoin reserve, you just have to

52:41

know that there were people in China,

52:43

Russia, all the other countries were like,

52:45

hang on a second. You know, are

52:47

we sure we're on the right side of

52:49

this? against Bitcoin. I wouldn't be surprised. It

52:52

wouldn't surprise me if they were. I'm almost

52:54

sure Russia must have been. I mean, some

52:56

of the things Putin has said about, you

52:58

can't stop it. Yeah. I mean, it's kind

53:00

of becoming common knowledge. I mean, it really

53:02

is. I mean, I tell you what I

53:05

thought, one of the ways I took, one of

53:07

the things I took away to get

53:09

me absolutely convinced that that that's the

53:11

case. Let's look at the case of

53:13

Larry thing. So here's a very smart

53:15

man who runs the largest asset manager

53:17

in the world. I mean trillions and

53:19

trillions, I think it might be seven

53:21

trillion of AEYM, Black Rock, out of

53:23

New York. And he was very anti-bit

53:26

coin. Yeah, very. Yeah, I mean, it's

53:28

Pet Rock, it's nobody needs it, you

53:30

know, all the negative shit, right? And

53:32

yet he's not a stupid man. And

53:34

so he obviously got read in and

53:36

started reading it and studying it and

53:38

thinking about it. And what do you

53:40

know, he came to the conclusion. Just

53:42

as Putin said, I don't think there's

53:44

anything he can stop it. So he

53:46

gets it. That statement alone tells me

53:48

when somebody says there's nothing that can

53:50

stop Bitcoin that tells me they get it. Okay.

53:52

You know, think got read in or he studied

53:55

it. And he came to the conclusion. He said,

53:57

well, well, let's see. This is probably going

53:59

to happen. got a choice. Am I going

54:01

to keep knocking it and not, you know,

54:03

and miss the boat? Or am I going

54:06

to accept that that's the new reality? And

54:08

maybe I should figure out how to make

54:10

money off it. And of course he has.

54:13

He's got the largest ETF in the space.

54:15

He's become positive about it. As you mentioned,

54:17

most of the recent quarterly report or annual

54:19

report he talked about. I mean, he gets

54:22

it. I mean, he totally gets it. And,

54:24

you know, that means that there are going

54:26

to be a lot more of a lot

54:28

more of more of him. in the future,

54:31

you know. Well, it was like when he

54:33

was pushing the ESG thing, like whatever he

54:35

says, everyone follows. Well, that's right. And, I

54:38

mean, I mean, and, you know, again, it's,

54:40

it's, it's, it's, how comfortable are people being

54:42

out on the ledge? You know, I mean,

54:44

take Ray Dalio. Ray Dal is a brilliant

54:47

macro manager, you know, runs, runs Bridgewater, built

54:49

and runs Bridgewater, gold and runs Bridgewater, gold

54:51

guy. And you know, originally I remember his

54:54

comments three, four, five years ago, he's going

54:56

to have Bitcoin. Yeah, kind of maybe. He

54:58

wasn't poo-pooing it, but he just didn't really

55:00

buy it. More recently, it's kind of like,

55:03

this is an emerging reserve asset. Yeah. You

55:05

know, he gets it now. I mean, he

55:07

owns some back then, but he owns more

55:09

now, I know that. And so... You know

55:12

it's it's it's just seeping into everybody's consciousness.

55:14

What about on the gold side? Is it

55:16

seeping into the conscious there? Because you obviously

55:19

are still like have at least half a

55:21

for a year. I got a for a

55:23

while and I get flamed by all my

55:25

old gold peers who what are they in?

55:28

The book. I think they like it. Look

55:30

the first half of the book is you

55:32

know the problem. Yeah. Keynesianism, money printing, you

55:35

know, Fiat, I mean. What's not to like?

55:37

And the first half of the book has

55:39

nothing about, well, very little about Bitcoin. It's

55:41

all about the problem. So I think every

55:44

gold person who reads the book, oh yeah,

55:46

nailed it, great. And that's why I own

55:48

gold. Yeah, perfect. Second half of the book

55:50

is why Bitcoin is the best solution by

55:53

far, like far better than gold. They don't

55:55

always like that. You know, like a Frank

55:57

Juster, for example, and gold investor out in

56:00

Vancouver. You know, I know, I know, I

56:02

know, I know, I know, I know, I

56:04

know, I know, I know, I know, I

56:06

know, I know, I know, I know, I

56:09

know, I know, I know, I know, I

56:11

know, I know, and I know, I know,

56:13

I know, I know, I know, I know,

56:16

I know, I know, I know, I know,

56:18

I know, I know, I know, I know,

56:20

I know, I know, I know, you know,

56:22

nasty and angry dams from Canadian guys who

56:25

were like, you know, you idiot, you know,

56:27

I mean, just, they just don't want to

56:29

accept that, you know, I mean, I mean,

56:31

and really, you know, scholarly, brilliant guys, a

56:34

guy like James Grant, who runs Grand Insurgate

56:36

Observer, you know, in New York, and this

56:38

is kind of one of the pillars of

56:41

sound money economics in the United States for

56:43

the last, you know, 40 years that he's

56:45

been writing, you know, he's been writing. They

56:47

can't get their heads around the concept that

56:50

there could be a technological solution that creates

56:52

immutable digital scarcity. They just don't, they just

56:54

can't get there, you know. Is that because

56:57

they're so wedded to the gold idea because

56:59

they've been on this train for however long,

57:01

30, 40, 50 years? Yeah. Do you think

57:03

that's the reason? Or is it the fact

57:06

that they just don't understand the technology of

57:08

Bitcoin? Yeah, that's a great question, Danny. To

57:10

tease it out, I think... I think some

57:12

of it's the technology, you know, I mean,

57:15

this is, I mean, I know my initial

57:17

reaction to it was, well, they've been tried,

57:19

this has been tried before and it didn't

57:22

work, you know, did you cash and all

57:24

those things. My other reaction to it was

57:26

how can you have money based on a

57:28

computer, computers crash, right? Well, okay, redundancy, blockchain,

57:31

you know, blah, blah, blah, blah. You know,

57:33

I think some of it's just, you know,

57:35

you know, you know, Hey, we've nailed this

57:37

whole thing. We've got the sovereign debt crisis

57:40

right now. Who are you guys to come

57:42

along and steal our thunder? You know, I

57:44

think some of it's the way everyone in

57:47

the crypto space behaves. I mean, it runs

57:49

against, I mean, gold people are generally speaking,

57:51

old-fashioned, very conservative, very. you know traditional you

57:53

know and to see guys running around like

57:56

sandbank and freed and you know all the

57:58

crypto bros i mean that's just like this

58:00

is the biggest bubble bullshit you know tulip

58:03

thing i've ever seen and they're right about

58:05

crypto what they didn't what they're missing is

58:07

that in all that noise there's this one

58:09

little thing that's true signal yeah and then

58:12

they're missing and that, you know, so. I

58:14

almost feel sorry for us the wrong word,

58:16

but I always feel sorry for the gold

58:18

books because like they've been right forever and

58:21

yet when this thing finally happens, because it's

58:23

going to happen at some point, maybe they're

58:25

not the ones that win. Well, they will

58:28

win just not as big. I mean, they're

58:30

not going to entirely lose. I mean. Don't

58:32

get me wrong. Bitcoin will demonetize gold, but

58:34

not, I mean, a lot of people think

58:37

that's going to happen within, you know, single-digit

58:39

years. I just don't think that's the case.

58:41

Yeah. I think it's, I think it's a

58:44

couple of decades. And so, you know, and

58:46

both, versus Fiat, both will win, Bitcoin will

58:48

win an order of magnitude better. right which

58:50

is why we're all here because we just

58:53

know that it's because I mean really what

58:55

you know they're both they're both benefiting from

58:57

Fiat to basement which is going I believe

58:59

is likely to increase and get worse because

59:02

it's the problem I say it's the problem

59:04

of our age okay that what they're missing

59:06

is that they've got the fully distributed you

59:09

know complete it's out there solution and we've

59:11

got the nobody knows about it's emerging solution

59:13

so this is like cell phones or you

59:15

know it's like any new technology where they

59:18

have early adopters that's us and then you

59:20

got latecomers and that'll be the you know

59:22

the last troglodyte gold guy who says oh

59:25

you know what this stuff does work yeah

59:27

and and so you know it's it's one

59:29

of those things where and because it's a

59:31

limited supply fixed supply and it's a perfectly

59:34

inelastic commodity which you know there has never

59:36

really and I think it's hard for all

59:38

human beings to get there's never been anything

59:40

like anything like this like this before before

59:43

ever. There's never been a commodity where the

59:45

price or the supply doesn't respond to price.

59:47

Never. Yeah. That's hard to that's hard to

59:50

get your head around. I mean, I truly

59:52

think that when history is written in a

59:54

hundred years, people will say, you know, there

59:56

was the time pre-bit coin and the time

59:59

post-bit coin, because of that thing being that

1:00:01

big a change. I mean, it'll be comparable.

1:00:03

I mean, just a different metaphor, but that

1:00:06

there was a time when mankind did not

1:00:08

fly, you know, you know, light occurred and

1:00:10

there was a time of mankind did fly

1:00:12

and it's just before and after you know

1:00:15

it's crazy and if you had to put

1:00:17

like a time frame on it how long

1:00:19

do you think it'll be until we have

1:00:21

like gold Bitcoin parity oh I think that's

1:00:24

coming pretty quick yeah I think so too

1:00:26

yeah I think that's within five years probably

1:00:28

I mean so Bitcoin I mean today it's

1:00:31

you know I mean let's let's use a

1:00:33

hundred thousand which it was that recently I'll

1:00:35

be back there's one nine almost two trillion

1:00:37

of and gold is about 20 trillion of

1:00:40

total market value. But think about gold. People

1:00:42

have to keep this in mind. It's 20

1:00:44

trillion, but that's if you include, you know,

1:00:47

museums, antiquities, Central Bank Gold, which isn't moving

1:00:49

very much. A mine will either. And all

1:00:51

the jewelry that it's around, you know, ladies'

1:00:53

necks in India and China, all over the

1:00:56

world. Now, that could be melted down. Don't

1:00:58

get me wrong, but right now it's ornamental.

1:01:00

So, you know, I mean, out of that

1:01:02

20, maybe 7, maybe 7, I'm just estimating,

1:01:05

I'm just estimating. trillion is available for sale

1:01:07

in Boolean and coin form, which is the

1:01:09

major form. So really, you know, Bitcoin's at

1:01:12

two and that's at seven. I mean, it's

1:01:14

closer than you think. But, you know, I

1:01:16

think the power law and other things would

1:01:18

suggest to me that, I mean, I like,

1:01:21

I'm sure you've seen it, it's in the

1:01:23

book, and I think it's just one of

1:01:25

the great charts, how it's iconic, as I

1:01:27

said to Jesse, Jesse, Mayor's chart about, you

1:01:30

know, the total market, total of the market

1:01:32

size. I mean, 900 trillion of financial assets,

1:01:34

you know, of assets in the world, so,

1:01:37

hang on a second. you know this is

1:01:39

the soundest form of money ever created and

1:01:41

it's point two percent of all the other

1:01:43

that doesn't make that makes no sense and

1:01:46

so we could go up ten x if

1:01:48

you go from a hundred to a million

1:01:50

a coin and it would still only be

1:01:53

two percent and there were times you know

1:01:55

back in the 1980s when gold was a

1:01:57

little bit of bubble but when everyone was

1:01:59

afraid the currency the US currency was failing

1:02:02

because of going off the gold standard There

1:02:04

were times when gold was 10 or 15%

1:02:06

of total assets available. And those those assets

1:02:08

are also growing. Yes, well that's the thing.

1:02:11

That's the thing. That's the thing. I mean,

1:02:13

and that's what makes Bitcoin price projections so

1:02:15

hard. Okay, so Bitcoin gets to a million,

1:02:18

get to 10 million, but tell me what

1:02:20

the cost of gasoline is. Are we paying

1:02:22

$100 a gallon for gas? You know, because

1:02:24

that's where we're headed. Yeah. I mean, things,

1:02:27

you know, everything's outstanding. price of everything is

1:02:29

going to grow. I mean, when I was

1:02:31

a teenager, gas was 25 cents. But do

1:02:34

you think so inflation next decade is going

1:02:36

to continue to rip? I do. I think

1:02:38

we live in an inflationary age. I think

1:02:40

that, you know, when we hit peak deflation

1:02:43

with 18 trillion of negative bonds outstanding and,

1:02:45

you know, the long bond or the 10

1:02:47

year being at 50 basis points, you know,

1:02:49

in the middle of COVID. And now we

1:02:52

live in an inflationary world. And mainly because,

1:02:54

you know, labor is going to push up

1:02:56

prices. By the way, we haven't talked about

1:02:59

it much. These tariffs are inflationary fundamentally. They're

1:03:01

not money printing per se, but they're a

1:03:03

tax and they're going to cost. The cost

1:03:05

of goods is going to go up. The

1:03:08

cost of goods will go up and it

1:03:10

will get measured in CPIs. And, you know,

1:03:12

CPIs will then force the government to spend

1:03:15

more on Social Security. And I believe that

1:03:17

this fiat currency system is in the process

1:03:19

of dying and it's relatively acute. I mean,

1:03:21

the book talks about that. I mean, if

1:03:24

you look at the, you know, the growth

1:03:26

of U.S. federal interest expense, the growth of

1:03:28

the U.S. federal deficit, I mean, and some

1:03:30

people say, well, we can we can fix

1:03:33

all this. Well, no, there was a time

1:03:35

to do that. That was a long time

1:03:37

ago. Yeah. It's going to be really, like,

1:03:40

like, I mean, I mean, just to fix,

1:03:42

I mean, just to give you know, just

1:03:44

to give you know, just to give you

1:03:46

know, just to give you know, to give

1:03:49

you know, to give you know, to give

1:03:51

you know, to give you know, to give

1:03:53

you know, to give you know, to give

1:03:56

you know, to give you know, to give

1:03:58

you know, to give you know, to give

1:04:00

you know, to give you know, to give

1:04:02

you know, to give you know, to give

1:04:05

you know So I think you could you

1:04:07

know David Stockman who I met a few

1:04:09

weekends ago He said you we could cut

1:04:11

defense with 50% We waste a lot of

1:04:14

money there interest You could do it by

1:04:16

taking interest rates down, but that would be

1:04:18

inflationary. But self-security and Medicare, boy, be careful

1:04:21

there. I mean, the boomers are a huge

1:04:23

voting block. You're going to have a hard

1:04:25

time touching that. But, you know, arguably, we

1:04:27

should. And so in terms of Fed's response

1:04:30

now, you think, so they're doing quantitative tightening,

1:04:32

but that's slowed. You think that becomes QE

1:04:34

very quickly. And you think rates go, will

1:04:37

they go back to zero? Do you think?

1:04:39

that they might actually mess with a balance

1:04:41

sheet before they mess with the rates. What

1:04:43

does that mean? Well, that would mean that

1:04:46

they would start, they would try to provide

1:04:48

more monetary accommodation. I mean, in the past,

1:04:50

let's just talk about this, in the past,

1:04:52

why did QE start? QE is monetary accommodation,

1:04:55

right? Is buying up bonds, putting money into

1:04:57

the system, okay, reserves into the system. And

1:04:59

Bernanke initiated that when interest rates got to

1:05:02

the zero bound. You couldn't go. There's nowhere

1:05:04

else to go. So, okay, fine, we're still

1:05:06

a deflationary or going to, we're going to

1:05:08

print money to, you know, that was his

1:05:11

printing press speech. You know, we have this

1:05:13

technology, digital printing press. Okay. So that's the

1:05:15

theory behind it all when the interest rate

1:05:17

hit the zero bound you do, QE. Well,

1:05:20

there's now been talk and I'm guessing because

1:05:22

Gun locks pretty well connected, we've got an

1:05:24

inflation problem. Okay, so maybe we don't cut

1:05:27

the rates down that low. Maybe we take

1:05:29

them down to three or something, you know,

1:05:31

lower than they are today. But we also

1:05:33

recognize that we've got a, the money supply

1:05:36

is not growing problem. And, you know, things

1:05:38

are seizing up. I mean, we haven't talked

1:05:40

about the basis trade and the risk inherent

1:05:43

there. But and so the Fed, you know,

1:05:45

I mean, and it's interesting to me. I

1:05:47

mean, and I kind of love the way

1:05:49

Powell messages, right. But this doesn't really mean,

1:05:52

you know, nothing to see over there folks,

1:05:54

it doesn't really mean anything, it's not a

1:05:56

change in mind. Bull shit, it's... not. I

1:05:58

mean, that's, you know, you were tightening your

1:06:01

balance sheet and you're taking the tightening back

1:06:03

a long way. And even more, if you

1:06:05

look at it really carefully, he's thinking, well,

1:06:08

we might still let the MBS runoff, but

1:06:10

we might use the MBS proceeds to increase

1:06:12

to buy more bonds. So that's kind of

1:06:14

a shady QE. Right. So, you know, so

1:06:17

maybe they start to initiate some form of

1:06:19

QE. I mean, we know because other things

1:06:21

we've seen that I think are relevant is...

1:06:24

You know, and James Lavis did a great

1:06:26

job of this in his newsletter a week

1:06:28

ago talking about it. You know, the Brookings

1:06:30

Institute talked about putting out swap lines, preemptive

1:06:33

swap lines in advance for the hedge fund

1:06:35

community that's involved in the treasury basis trade.

1:06:37

So we had to take a minute to

1:06:39

explain what that is. Okay. Yeah, because the

1:06:42

swap lines, I thought that was. a way

1:06:44

that the Fed can basically give money to

1:06:46

other countries. How does that work in terms

1:06:49

of giving to hedge funds? A swap line

1:06:51

is literally just the Fed printing money and

1:06:53

taking a liability against it. Anybody who's financially

1:06:55

distressed can go to the Fed, it's like

1:06:58

the discount window, they go to the Fed

1:07:00

and say, hey, I'm in trouble here, I

1:07:02

got too much leverage, something's blowing up, you

1:07:05

don't want me to fail, give me some

1:07:07

money, and I'll give you a note. And

1:07:09

the basis trade is that a lot of

1:07:11

these funds, particularly Citadel, is probably the largest,

1:07:14

but they're three or four others like them,

1:07:16

and some of the banks do it too.

1:07:18

Other hedge funds, they buy treasury securities, and

1:07:20

they arbitrage between the arbitrage between the futures

1:07:23

and they arbitrage between the futures and the

1:07:25

current, and they arbitrage between the future and

1:07:27

the price of the current. And that spread

1:07:30

is so minuscule that the only way it

1:07:32

really works is if they leverred it like

1:07:34

50 or 100 times. And it's all fine.

1:07:36

And what it does, what the Fed likes

1:07:39

about it is it creates and the treasury

1:07:41

like about is it creates demand for treasuries,

1:07:43

which is a big issue because you don't

1:07:46

want the. interest rates to go up, treasury

1:07:48

interest rate to go up because then the

1:07:50

budget deficit gets worth. Okay, that's the backdrop.

1:07:52

So, and it's all fine when markets are

1:07:55

stable. When markets get unstable, the, you know,

1:07:57

the things blow out. and you can quote

1:07:59

unquote blow up and this is what happened

1:08:01

to long-term capital management a version of it

1:08:04

happened in 2008 and it really happened in

1:08:06

2020 when it's pretty certain most people know

1:08:08

and I've seen some guys were in the

1:08:11

circle that would know have said that they

1:08:13

basically gave a big swap line to Citadel

1:08:15

because the basis trade had blown up and

1:08:17

Ken Griffin wouldn't have been bankrupt if he

1:08:20

hadn't gotten the swap line and the reason

1:08:22

they did that and the reason they justify

1:08:24

that is that you know, Citadel accounts for

1:08:27

X percentage of the market and has counterparties

1:08:29

at every single bank in the street. And

1:08:31

if they fail, the whole system will fail

1:08:33

and we can't have that happen. It's like

1:08:36

a Lehman Brothers movement. Yeah, it's once again,

1:08:38

it's the gun to the head, you know,

1:08:40

it gives the damn money or we're going

1:08:42

to the head, you know, give us the

1:08:45

damn money or we're going to the head,

1:08:47

you know, we're going to, you know, we're

1:08:49

going to, you know, we're going to, you

1:08:52

know, we're going to, we're going to, you

1:08:54

know, you know, we're going to, we're going

1:08:56

to, we're going to, you know, we're going

1:08:58

to, you know, we're going to, we're going

1:09:01

to, you know, you know, you know, we're

1:09:03

going to, you know, we're going to, we're

1:09:05

going to, we're going to, we're going to,

1:09:08

we're going to, you know, we're going Hey,

1:09:10

maybe we should have preemptive swap lines with

1:09:12

these hedge funds in case this basis trade

1:09:14

gets in trouble. What that says, that combined

1:09:17

with Powell decreasing the QT, says to me,

1:09:19

I mean, that things are getting tight. Yeah.

1:09:21

Right. Is that then basically saying this is

1:09:23

going to blow up? Feels that way to

1:09:26

me. Yeah. Look, it's math. Okay. It's really

1:09:28

simple math. The timing and the event and

1:09:30

the size of the blow, nobody knows it.

1:09:33

I don't know what, you don't know what,

1:09:35

nobody can know if it's something, they're full

1:09:37

of shit. But I do know this, if

1:09:39

you're growing your debt, that's at one rate,

1:09:42

and you're growing your underlying GDP at a

1:09:44

much lower rate, and in our case, the

1:09:46

GDP is not growing much at all, but

1:09:48

the debt is definitely growing every year, six,

1:09:51

six, seven. You've got to inflate the GDP

1:09:53

to service the debt. Or you've got to

1:09:55

inflate the money supply to service the debt.

1:09:58

I mean, it's a problem with a monetary

1:10:00

system based upon debt creation. You know, every

1:10:02

debt you create creates an interest expense. Well,

1:10:04

to pay that interest expense, you got to

1:10:07

create more debt. So it's like a shark.

1:10:09

It's got to keep swimming and getting bigger

1:10:11

and have built-in monetary debasement or else it

1:10:14

fails. That's the problem with Fiat currency and

1:10:16

that's the problem with the Keynesian model. It's

1:10:18

just a fundamental flaw and we've all been

1:10:20

led down this garden path for 200 years,

1:10:23

but you know, since 71 it got bad

1:10:25

and it's gotten more acute and with each

1:10:27

event it's gotten even more acute. I mean

1:10:29

the book is called the big print. This,

1:10:32

you know, there have been two big prints.

1:10:34

2020 was a big print. They printed more

1:10:36

and faster. They printed, you know, five trillion

1:10:39

in 18 months. You know, 2008 was a

1:10:41

big print. They printed three trillion in three

1:10:43

years. you know the next one they're gonna

1:10:45

probably have to print seven to ten trillion

1:10:48

in in weeks I mean I'm making that

1:10:50

up yeah but you understand the concept right

1:10:52

the magnitude gets bigger and they seem to

1:10:55

be getting closer together and you know and

1:10:57

you can see the signs I mean people

1:10:59

say well how how will we know when

1:11:01

we know when we know when we know

1:11:04

when we know when we know when we're

1:11:06

in it well two reasons I think we're

1:11:08

in it gold and Bitcoin price yeah they're

1:11:10

an indicator to fail You know like the

1:11:13

like the you know the Liz trust, you

1:11:15

know UK moment, right? Where she you know

1:11:17

the bond market started to fail and they

1:11:20

had to reinstitute QE I mean the the

1:11:22

Fed most people don't remember this but in

1:11:24

the fall of 2023 the 10 the 10

1:11:26

year the 10 year went up 2023 the

1:11:29

10 year went up above 5% and remember

1:11:31

the so he started it Paul started rate

1:11:33

hiking in early 2022 and you know it

1:11:36

took him very quickly right right and you

1:11:38

know it's the failure silicon belly So, you

1:11:40

know, but by the fall of 2023, basically,

1:11:42

the bond market started to kind of go

1:11:45

the wrong direction. And rates got above 5%.

1:11:47

And apparently that's kind of a line in

1:11:49

the sand, I think, for the Fed, that

1:11:51

above 5%, you know, the 10 years is

1:11:54

a problem. And within like two weeks, 12

1:11:56

Fed governors had come out and said, yeah,

1:11:58

this rate, you know, we're probably done with

1:12:01

this. The rate, I think we're probably done

1:12:03

with this. The rate hiking cycle, I think

1:12:05

we're at the end of this thing. And

1:12:07

so the bond market smell. that they're not

1:12:10

going to get paid back in full, they're

1:12:12

going to start to slowly but surely walk

1:12:14

away. And these tariffs aren't going to help.

1:12:17

I mean, you're China, and Trump is doing

1:12:19

this stuff, and China owns a lot of

1:12:21

our bonds. I mean, does China start selling?

1:12:23

It's possible. And then if China starts selling,

1:12:26

you obviously need increased demand, so that's game

1:12:28

over. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's... Yeah, it's

1:12:30

game over and higher rates, you know, make

1:12:32

the budget deficit bigger, bigger deficit means you

1:12:35

got to sell more bonds. I mean, you

1:12:37

know, I mean, it's hard because I don't

1:12:39

want to, again, I don't want to be

1:12:42

a profit of doom, okay? Well, you black

1:12:44

told me on the economy here. Yeah, yeah,

1:12:46

I mean, but I, you know, from my

1:12:48

experience having watched these markets and watched the

1:12:51

cycle play out over and over again. I

1:12:53

mean, this is, this is not a pretty

1:12:55

pretty picture. This is not a pretty picture.

1:12:58

And anyone who thinks that we're going to

1:13:00

sneak out of this with, you know, this

1:13:02

will be okay, they'll print some money, it's

1:13:04

all going to be okay, stock market will

1:13:07

go on to new highs, I'll take the

1:13:09

other side of that bet. I don't think

1:13:11

that's going to, I don't think that's going

1:13:13

to, I don't think it's going to work.

1:13:16

That's what's going to lead to the solution.

1:13:18

I mean, the thing I propose in the

1:13:20

book. I mean, we couldn't do that today

1:13:23

because nobody even knows what the problem is.

1:13:25

And so, you know, sadly, people have to

1:13:27

learn it by getting hit in the head.

1:13:29

You know what I mean? There's got to

1:13:32

be pain. So market goes down, they print

1:13:34

more money, inflation gets higher. And this is

1:13:36

probably why I wrote the book. People collectively

1:13:38

realize, God damn it, this fiat shit is

1:13:41

killing us. We gotta start electing sound money

1:13:43

politicians. And so, and I wrote the book

1:13:45

because I was watching debates, I was watching

1:13:48

the American public argue about stuff that doesn't

1:13:50

matter. I mean it's all comes down to

1:13:52

the money. It comes down to this. This

1:13:54

is what really matters. This is going to

1:13:57

cause enormous economic pain and turmoil in my

1:13:59

opinion. This monetary issue is going to cause

1:14:01

enormous economic pain and turmoil. It's a fourth

1:14:04

turning and it's going to happen in the

1:14:06

next few years. And when it does... You

1:14:08

know, I hope and I pray that we

1:14:10

have enough of us who understand what it

1:14:13

really is and that the problem is the

1:14:15

money is broken, that we go to, you

1:14:17

know, we elect politicians that understand that the

1:14:19

course answer to the problem is to go

1:14:22

to sound money, not to go socialist. print

1:14:24

the money, tax the rich, you know, to

1:14:26

go, you know what I mean? And that's

1:14:29

the big question. It's like, whether they pick

1:14:31

the right path there. Well, that's right. That's

1:14:33

right. Because if things get really bad, you

1:14:35

know there's going to be a siren song

1:14:38

of the other side saying. And people love

1:14:40

to vote for the person that's saying they're

1:14:42

going to give them free money. Absolutely. you

1:14:45

know that's and that would be that would

1:14:47

be really sad and really unfortunate now you

1:14:49

know but but again maybe that's what would

1:14:51

drive that's what you know I mean and

1:14:54

then I mean if we really go in

1:14:56

that direction we will have hyperinflation yeah we

1:14:58

will we will have complete hyperinflation and guess

1:15:00

what hyperinflation will solve the problem yeah I

1:15:03

mean it will you know it'll be it'll

1:15:05

be incredibly painful but it will solve the

1:15:07

problem and then and at that point in

1:15:10

time there will be no doubt about what

1:15:12

cost it yeah right and everyone will go

1:15:14

okay I get it people are going to

1:15:16

learn the lesson one way or the other

1:15:19

that's right well I think you wrote the

1:15:21

book at the perfect time I think so

1:15:23

I hope so I mean I you know

1:15:26

as I said on many other shows my

1:15:28

my my measure of Well, it's gone reasonably

1:15:30

well. I'll give you, I think I'll give

1:15:32

you some states. I think I've got a

1:15:35

couple of outlets I'm selling it through, so

1:15:37

I don't have the exact current numbers, but

1:15:39

I've sold about 15,000 books so far, which

1:15:41

is a great start. That's audio and other

1:15:44

stuff. I don't know how to compare that

1:15:46

to other things. I mean, you know, there

1:15:48

are guys who've written finance books that have

1:15:51

sold five million books. I think this knowledge

1:15:53

into as many. you know Americans and you

1:15:55

know one people need to have this knowledge

1:15:57

to protect themselves but two they need to

1:16:00

have this knowledge so that we have a

1:16:02

good chance at taking the right path to

1:16:04

return to sound money. And that's the key.

1:16:07

Well, thank you so much, Larry. Thank you

1:16:09

for the book. Oh, you're most welcome. I'm

1:16:11

going to buy my data copy of this

1:16:13

because I think he needs to read this

1:16:16

as well. Yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's good

1:16:18

for, for boomers. Yeah, exactly. But I really

1:16:20

appreciate his time. Thank you. Thank you. You've

1:16:22

kind of, you know, it's kind of, it's

1:16:25

going to be a lot of fun. I'm

1:16:27

looking. cost from Europe to the US is

1:16:29

ridiculous. So I wouldn't recommend Americans buy it

1:16:32

there. But yeah, Amazon has it. It's in

1:16:34

four formats. It's a hard copy. paperback, e-pub,

1:16:36

Kindle now, and then Walker America read it

1:16:38

and did a really good job reading it.

1:16:41

He's got a great voice. He's got a

1:16:43

great voice. He's got a great voice. He

1:16:45

did some of the quotes in period quote

1:16:48

in his, you know, in the period language.

1:16:50

It's fantastic. So it's 12 and half hours

1:16:52

if you listen at 1X and I had

1:16:54

a friend who was telling, I'll listen to

1:16:57

6 hours, I don't know how anyone listened

1:16:59

to anything at 2X. Yeah, no, but not

1:17:01

something like this, something like this, like this,

1:17:03

like this, like this, like this, like this,

1:17:06

like this, like this, like this, like this,

1:17:08

like this, like this, like this, like this,

1:17:10

like this, like this, like this. It's written

1:17:13

in everyday language. It's written in a way,

1:17:15

and it's written with a narrative and a

1:17:17

story, and I've been told by people that

1:17:19

it's easy to read, and it's fun to

1:17:22

read, which was the goal because, you know,

1:17:24

what good is a book if no one

1:17:26

reads it? Yeah, it's not just another.

1:17:28

textbook. It's not just

1:17:31

another textbook, but there,

1:17:33

there are a lot

1:17:35

of charts and facts.

1:17:38

And that's why, a lot of

1:17:40

know, versus and facts and that's

1:17:42

why works, but versus

1:17:44

the Kindle or what by the

1:17:47

way, I should works

1:17:49

book has a PDF

1:17:51

attachment with all the

1:17:54

charts. the way I if you

1:17:56

buy the audio book,

1:17:58

make sure you download

1:18:00

the attachment with you know,

1:18:03

he'll say, I'm referring

1:18:05

to the chart on

1:18:07

page audio He'll describe

1:18:09

it, but then you

1:18:12

can actually see it the

1:18:14

the PDF. Nice. Yeah,

1:18:16

you need to see

1:18:19

that stuff. Yeah. I

1:18:21

mean, it's helpful. you buy the

1:18:23

thank you so much.

1:18:25

Thank you, audio book, make a

1:18:28

so much. Chase. Cheers.