0:05

When people have money, they like

0:07

to spend it on looking good.

0:09

Designer handbags, statement heels, regular trips to

0:11

the salon for lashes, acrylics and

0:13

expensive blonde hairdos. We feel free at

0:15

Boulder and often women's skirts get

0:18

a little bit shorter too. But all

0:20

of that comes at a cost.

0:22

So what happens when the economy takes

0:24

a hit? Well, what you see

0:26

is we start to dress differently. And

0:29

right now, with fears of a global

0:31

recession looming, the signs are all

0:33

there. Our heels are getting lower,

0:35

skirts are longer, blondes are going darker,

0:38

and our nails are starting to look a bit

0:40

more natural. So can fashion and

0:42

style really be recession indicators? And how

0:44

does the economy impact how we look?

0:46

Well, that is what you're going to

0:48

hear about today on What in the

0:50

World from the BBC World Service. I'm

0:52

Hannah Gelbart. First

0:57

of all, we're going to break down what

0:59

a recession actually is. And I'm speaking

1:01

to BBC business reporter Erin Delmonte in New

1:03

York. Hello. Hello. In a nutshell, can

1:05

you tell me what is going on in

1:07

the economy right now? Yeah, we

1:09

are seeing some warning signs in the

1:11

US economy. And of course, that reverberates

1:13

around the world. And a lot of

1:15

the talk these days is on whether

1:18

or not we're going to see a

1:20

global economic downturn. And another word for

1:22

that is a recession. Now, a recession

1:24

is a very specific term. We don't

1:26

use it lightly. Usually, we bring that

1:28

term in after we've seen two consecutive

1:30

quarters of negative GDP growth, gross domestic

1:33

product. That's the rule of thumb. But

1:35

if we see certain economic indicators trending

1:37

downward, Recession can be declared before

1:39

all that data on GDP comes

1:41

in. So we're looking at a

1:43

period of economic decline. That's what

1:45

a recession is. And you would

1:47

see things like incomes falling. You

1:49

would see job cuts. You would

1:51

see consumer spending going down. Less

1:53

business investment. People would be spending

1:55

less money, right? Less consumer spending. So

1:57

then you would see retail sales fall. And

1:59

manufacturing output would fall as well. You know,

2:01

it doesn't have to be all of those

2:04

things, but some combination. Basically, in

2:06

a nutshell, think of it has a

2:08

really tough spot to be in economically.

2:10

Can you briefly walk us through the

2:12

different factors that have led us up

2:14

to where we are now? Now what

2:16

we're seeing, especially with the president's changing

2:18

tariff policies, is that it's making businesses

2:20

and investors uncertain. That tends to

2:22

make the stock market shaky, where we see

2:24

these big swings with stocks going up and then

2:26

going far, far down. And

2:28

it also makes businesses wary of how

2:30

to plan their next couple of

2:32

weeks and months ahead. And all of

2:34

that has really stirred up this

2:36

sense of economic uncertainty. And what are

2:38

the typical warning signs that people

2:40

are looking out for? Any indicators right

2:42

now that we could be heading

2:44

towards a recession? One of the

2:46

biggest warning signs is if consumers start

2:49

to pull back their spending. If you find

2:51

that people aren't going out and buying

2:53

as much as they used to buy, it

2:55

could be anything. It could be purchases

2:57

of clothing. It could be how much money

2:59

they're spending at the supermarket to feed

3:01

their families. It could be luxuries

3:03

like vacation, anything like that. Largely,

3:05

we find that consumers start to be

3:07

more of their money, more protective

3:09

and trying to grow their savings. Another

3:12

one is whether businesses stop making the

3:14

hires they were planning to make or whether

3:16

they start in fact laying off workers.

3:18

So job loss is a really big one

3:20

too. Is there anything that consumers, people

3:22

like us, can do to prepare ourselves

3:24

and prepare our finances ahead of an

3:26

economic downturn? It's hard to give, you

3:28

know, exact financial advice here, but I

3:30

can tell you what many consumers do.

3:32

Many people tend to try to save

3:34

up where they can. And believe me,

3:36

I cover inflation in this country and

3:38

around the world. I know it is

3:40

incredibly hard to save money these days

3:42

because goods are so expensive. And

3:45

that is one of the top financial

3:47

pressures on people and on households. But

3:49

saving a bit of cash is what people

3:51

generally tend to try to do in recessions. By

3:53

the way, that goes back to a big

3:55

recession indicator, right? If consumer spending goes down, we

3:57

tend to think a recession is on the

3:59

way. But there is, actually, there's something interesting here

4:01

to mention as well. There used

4:03

to be something called the lipstick effect. something

4:06

we would talk about years ago, where

4:08

consumers during times of economic hardship would

4:10

actually treat themselves to small luxuries. And

4:13

maybe it's, you know, an expensive iced coffee

4:15

when the weather gets hot. Maybe it is,

4:17

in fact, a lipstick. And

4:19

the thought was that if there's something that

4:21

costs just a couple of dollars and is

4:23

a mood booster and makes people feel good,

4:25

they'll still spend on it. And that has

4:27

historically held up. But I do wonder if

4:29

the lipstick test, the lipstick effect really still

4:31

makes sense in 2025. You know, as an

4:33

anecdote, when that came into play and people

4:35

were talking about it in 2008, the lipstick

4:38

I buy cost $14 .50. Now

4:40

in 2025, my lipstick cost $27.

4:42

So I don't really know that that counts as a small

4:44

indulgence for me anymore. This brings us

4:46

really nicely into what we're talking about

4:48

today. Do you think the fashion can

4:51

predict economic change? Yes, 100%. And I'll

4:53

tell you why. One of the economic

4:55

indicators I really like to watch is

4:57

what we see happening at beauty salons.

4:59

You know, a lot of women will

5:01

go and get highlights or get a

5:03

perm, you know, some kind of expensive

5:05

hair treatment. And when we start to

5:08

see people either foregoing those kind of

5:10

discretionary hair treatments or, you know, maybe

5:12

it's eyelash extension, something like that, or

5:14

going further between appointments, it's a sign

5:16

that consumers are trying to stretch their

5:18

budgets a little bit. And let's look

5:20

at it in reverse for a moment.

5:22

You know, in 2020, a

5:24

lot of people kind of defaulted toward

5:26

cozy or homey or clothing. A lot

5:29

of people weren't going into the office

5:31

anymore. So suddenly we're seeing more sweatpants.

5:33

We're seeing more wide leg joggers, right?

5:35

But then when we get the reopening

5:37

of the economy and travel springs back

5:39

up and people can get together for

5:41

large outdoor gatherings, large indoor gatherings, even

5:43

people are going back to bars. What

5:45

did we see? We saw sequins. We

5:47

saw neon. We saw shorter skirts. tighter

5:49

dresses. I mean, it was really kind

5:51

of this jubilant atmosphere that really portrayed

5:54

itself through fashion. And I absolutely think

5:56

that you can use the choices people

5:58

are saying about how they feel. And

6:00

fashion is a big means for that

6:02

in what's going on in the world.

6:04

Well, Erin, thank you so much for

6:06

speaking to us. An absolute pleasure. Thanks

6:08

for the chat. As

6:12

Erin said, people often change their spending

6:14

habits based on the health of the

6:16

economy. During tough times, some people choose

6:18

to invest in items that they'll be

6:20

able to wear many years into the

6:23

future. Here's content creator Leah

6:25

Holm. Hey, what's in the

6:27

world? What I ask myself before

6:29

purchasing an item is, can I

6:31

find at least three ways to style

6:33

this piece with clothes that I already have

6:35

in my closet? Do I

6:37

like this color on my complexion? Do

6:39

I like this shape on my body

6:41

type? Does the material and the fit

6:43

of the garment feel comfortable? Is

6:46

this a realistic purchase

6:48

for my current or future

6:50

lifestyle? And lastly and

6:52

very importantly, do I see myself

6:54

wearing this piece in five years

6:56

time? This way, you'll make more

6:58

mindful decisions and you become more

7:01

aware of your tastes and your

7:03

personal style. We've

7:07

talked a lot about the economy

7:09

and how that impacts trends, but trends

7:11

also stem from culture, shifting social

7:13

norms, perceptions of wealth, people's sense of

7:15

stability, and so much more. And

7:17

here to tell us more about that

7:19

is Caroline Stevenson from the London

7:21

College of Fashion. Hi, Caroline. Hi, how

7:23

are you? Good, thank you. Can

7:25

you tell me how fashion trends come

7:27

about in the first place? Well,

7:29

traditionally, fashion trends were said to originate

7:32

in the wealthy classes and it's

7:34

referred to as the trickle down effect

7:36

or the idea that the wealthy

7:38

elite sets trends that then the new

7:40

middle class and the working classes

7:42

would imitate. But it's never

7:44

quite as linear as that trickle down

7:46

suggests because fashion trends during modernity

7:48

also relied on the lower classes wanting

7:50

to emulate upper class fashion. So

7:52

this really created the market for clothing

7:54

that looked like upper class fashion,

7:56

perhaps wasn't as well made or didn't

7:59

use the same kind of fabrics.

8:01

You mentioned trickle down fashion. What about

8:03

things like streetwear? Is there fashion

8:05

that trickles up as well? Because of

8:07

the kind of explosion of youth

8:09

culture and subcultures during the post -war

8:11

period, we now have what we call

8:13

trickle -up trends, where styles kind of

8:15

emerge from the street, so to

8:17

speak. And these can influence luxury brands.

8:19

So for example, a skateboard

8:21

company like Supreme collaborating with

8:24

Louis Vuitton. And oftentimes the

8:26

trends that happen on the street

8:28

are seen as more authentic because they

8:30

emerge through social and cultural trends.

8:32

And they're not simply manufactured, and that's

8:34

very desirable. But I would say

8:36

nowadays trends come from all directions, different

8:38

kinds of aesthetics and different kinds

8:40

of ideas that circulate through social media.

8:42

So it's all very chaotic. Talk

8:44

me through some of the big trends

8:46

that we are seeing right now

8:48

and also what they tell us about

8:50

the state of society. Well, clothing,

8:52

it always reflects wider cultural shifts. It

8:54

always reflects socioeconomic contexts. And right

8:56

now, the clean girl, the quiet luxury

8:59

trends are quite big. And they've

9:01

been around for a while now too.

9:03

So I think we can safely

9:05

say they are definitely linked to our

9:07

wider social and cultural contexts. And

9:09

I think they speak to the economic

9:11

crisis. So in times of austerity,

9:13

trends usually move towards more subtle, more

9:15

covert styles and away from these

9:17

kind of ostentatious displays of wealth, which

9:19

can seem quite crude and provocative. You

9:22

mentioned the clean girl aesthetic, quiet

9:24

luxury, there's also office core. Can

9:27

you describe what those styles look like

9:29

to people who maybe are not following

9:31

fashion quite as closely? Clean girl is

9:33

a kind of minimalist Y2K fashion, like

9:35

blue denim jeans and a white top,

9:37

a very minimal makeup and a very

9:40

kind of fresh and healthy, dewy look.

9:42

What about office core? Office core

9:44

kind of reinterprets very classic office

9:46

wear but makes it kind of

9:48

individual so like female suits but

9:50

maybe with a bright top underneath

9:52

or a very feminine top underneath.

9:54

An office siren? An office siren

9:56

is the kind of sexy version

9:59

of office core. What about quiet

10:01

luxury? Quiet luxury is about tailored

10:03

clothing bespoke pieces very well curated

10:05

wardrobes and often very subdued colours

10:07

as well. How much of these

10:09

trends link to the economy? Well,

10:11

the office core trend in particular

10:13

has seen another big resurgence in

10:15

recent catwalks. And we're starting to

10:17

see a lot of ties and

10:19

suit jackets in the mix as

10:21

well. And today, I mean, economic

10:23

power is shifting across the globe

10:25

and very... radical and very terrifying

10:27

way. So I think it follows

10:29

that fashion would take stock of

10:31

that complexity. So I think

10:33

this office core trend provides a mean

10:35

to kind of reclaim a sense

10:37

of control or a sense of balance

10:39

in what's otherwise a very kind

10:41

of unstable world. It does make sense

10:43

with social media. It has changed

10:45

the way that people can get status

10:47

celebrity money. But what other trends

10:49

from the last 10 to 15 years

10:51

have also gone hand in hand

10:53

with major economic changes? So I would

10:55

say the last 10 to 15

10:58

years, it has been quite muted in

11:00

terms of fashion. kind

11:02

of radical and experimental trends really only

11:04

emerge when there is that kind of

11:06

stability in the economy. But the biggest

11:08

trends that have been linked to the

11:10

economy, I would say, are athleisure and

11:12

also real minimalist fashion, which, you know,

11:14

very similar to office core, that they

11:17

emphasize is kind of paired back, very

11:19

curated wardrobe with a few kind of

11:21

high quality pieces. And athleisure

11:23

also signifies this kind of adaptability

11:25

or the ability to move between

11:27

work and leisure or work and

11:29

going to the gym very easily.

11:31

It also signifies a very kind

11:33

of healthy and productive lifestyle. Caroline,

11:35

thank you so much for joining me on the podcast. No

11:38

problem. Thank you. That's

11:41

it for today. Thank you so much

11:43

for joining us. And if you like this

11:45

episode, we have done others on things

11:47

like how India is the main global supplier

11:50

of human hair for wigs and hair

11:52

extensions. And we've talked about how some K

11:54

-beauty brands are looking at their shade ranges

11:56

and making them more inclusive. You can

11:58

find those wherever you get your BBC podcasts.

12:01

I'm Hannah Gelbert. This is What in the World from

12:03

the BBC World Service and we'll be back with

12:05

another episode soon. See you then. Bye!