Some Educated Guesses About Trump’s Second Term

Some Educated Guesses About Trump’s Second Term

Released Thursday, 12th December 2024
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Some Educated Guesses About Trump’s Second Term

Some Educated Guesses About Trump’s Second Term

Some Educated Guesses About Trump’s Second Term

Some Educated Guesses About Trump’s Second Term

Thursday, 12th December 2024
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0:01

In 2025, Austria celebrates

0:03

the 200th birthday of Strauss Jr.

0:05

Austria's Austria's famous Waltz composer. into

0:07

the legendary into the legendary Strauss

0:09

family, he composed beautiful pieces

0:11

like the Blue Danube Waltz,

0:13

which to to fame during

0:15

his 1872 American 2025, In 2025,

0:18

a Vienna will host a

0:20

year to celebrate to celebrate this

0:22

legacy. and So join them and

0:24

discover the magic of the

0:26

Waltz throughout the city. Learn

0:28

Learn more at Ostria dot info slash Strauss.

0:37

This is Wired Politics a show about how

0:39

tech is changing politics. politics. I'm Tim

0:41

Marchman, Wired's Director of Science, Politics,

0:43

and Security, filling in for Leah in for

0:45

who was unable to be here

0:48

due to a personal be here due to

0:50

a personal emergency. The The election

0:52

season is over, and it's our

0:54

final episode of Wired Politics Lab.

0:56

Lab. One thing we do know

0:58

about the next the years is that

1:00

Donald Trump will be right at

1:02

the center of things, be shaping

1:04

events, of making everything about him, making

1:06

and he's always unpredictable. and he's Equally

1:08

unpredictable is Equally at least for now,

1:10

is the, at -president, Elon Musk. Elon

1:13

Musk. beyond Trump and Musk, Trump and

1:15

seems to have a lot of

1:17

wild a lot store. cards in store. next for

1:19

the far the far right? How is

1:21

the administration going to pay off

1:23

the political debts it owes to

1:25

Christian to Christian How are the are of

1:27

Silicon Valley going to both sidle

1:29

up to the administration and and

1:31

with one of their own for

1:33

influence and proximity to the proximity to the

1:35

what can we expect can we broader

1:38

developments in the tech world, ranging

1:40

from the continued growth of generative

1:42

growth of the very very status of

1:44

TikTok TikTok as an entity able to legally

1:46

operate in the United States. States?

1:49

Joining me to take some educated

1:51

guesses are guesses politics reporters. McKenna Kelly. Hi,

1:53

McKenna. Good to be here. here. And

1:55

And from Cork, Ireland, David

1:57

Gilbert. Hey Tim, good good to be

1:59

here. one final time. So let's

2:02

start with Elon Musk. McKenna,

2:04

let's just assume, as we've

2:06

already predicted on this program,

2:08

that the Musk Trump romance,

2:10

the co-presidency, will not survive. What already

2:13

existing fault line do you think could

2:15

cause it to explode? I think, I

2:17

don't know if it's any specific policy

2:19

issue, but they have just two huge

2:22

egos that I imagine Trump might get

2:24

upset with Elon maybe getting a little

2:26

bit more TV time or time on,

2:29

you know, people getting excited about them

2:31

on Twitter. That would be my main

2:33

guess. What about you, David? I kind

2:35

of felt would fall in the part

2:38

already because there was reports coming out

2:40

a week after the election that, you

2:42

know, he was overstaying his welcome, Elon

2:45

Musk and acting as, you know, co-president

2:47

in certain respects. But he's, you know,

2:49

he's still there, he's still meeting with

2:51

world leaders alongside Trump. It's amazing that

2:54

it's even lasted this long. I think

2:56

he may hang around or he may

2:58

be there until... Trump needs someone to

3:00

blame for not fulfilling all these wild

3:03

promises that he's made on the campaign

3:05

trail in terms of efficiency in government

3:07

or whatever else it may be and

3:10

he needs to blame Musk. The one

3:12

problem I guess with that is that

3:14

Musk is still you know extremely powerful

3:16

has huge platform with X and huge

3:19

amounts of money to hit back at

3:21

Trump if needed but who knows it's

3:23

really hard to say I didn't think

3:26

the relationship would last this long but

3:28

they seem to be going strong. One

3:30

thing too, people in Trump's orbit are

3:32

incredibly disposable. We've seen that when it

3:35

comes to his cabinet, we've seen it

3:37

when it comes to even people in

3:39

his family, it feels like. And so

3:42

I can imagine a world where we're

3:44

already seeing like Amazon, Jeff Basos, or

3:46

Andy Jassie, or Mark Zuckerberg, somebody who

3:48

also has a ton of money and

3:51

is also in the tech space, maybe

3:53

challenging Elon for that seat. attending more

3:55

meetings and then you know getting in

3:57

between that relationship and maybe casting him

4:00

aside. Maybe we could have that Musk,

4:02

Zuckerberg fight after all for... Oh my

4:04

gosh. Says at the right hand of

4:07

Trump. With all of the W.W.E. stuff

4:09

going on with this you'd imagine that

4:11

maybe we have a bigger you know

4:13

bigger chance of seeing that fight. There

4:16

you go Linda McMahon could get involved.

4:18

What more do we need? I would

4:20

pay to see that. McKenna, what do

4:23

you see ahead for X and Truth

4:25

Social, which is Trump's social media network

4:27

that now accounts for, I believe, over

4:29

half of his fortune? They're kind of

4:32

targeting the same audience. Do you see

4:34

them coming together being a source of

4:36

friction for the two? They don't seem

4:39

like too much of a source of

4:41

friction right now. It seems as if

4:43

Trump is still continuing to use Truth

4:45

Social as his main messaging platform. I

4:48

mean, the reason, the ways that I've

4:50

seen nominees announced was through like Caroline

4:52

Leavitt, the press secretary at the transition,

4:54

posting screenshots of his True Social posts.

4:57

And now we're seeing Trump using X

4:59

a little bit more. I think it

5:01

was towards the end of the summer

5:04

that we saw a lot of his

5:06

true social posts being cross posted to

5:08

X for the first time in quite

5:10

a while. And so maybe true social

5:13

just kind of lingers in the background

5:15

and falls apart because of internal problems.

5:17

And of course there's already been struggles

5:20

within the company running it. Devinenez has

5:22

apparently reportedly fought with other executives who

5:24

were there. floor starting the app have

5:26

exited and so it might just be

5:29

one of those things where again personalities

5:31

are colliding and X might just went

5:33

out on top. It certainly has a

5:36

larger user base. David, can

5:38

we talk a little bit about

5:40

Musk on the world stage? You

5:42

referenced the meetings with world leaders.

5:44

It's weird. He was on a

5:46

call with Ukrainian President Zelenski. He's

5:48

also recently been paling around with

5:50

the Prime Minister of Italy. Should

5:52

we start thinking of him as

5:54

a primary driver and financier of

5:56

global far-right politics right now? Yeah,

5:58

this is a five. aspect

6:01

of it because we've seen the

6:03

kind of growth in the network

6:05

of far-right communities internationally in 2024,

6:07

the ties have become much stronger

6:09

between the US and Europe. We've

6:11

seen that happening at a kind

6:13

of A lower level where communities

6:15

are definitely forging closer ties and

6:18

Musk could potentially be a key

6:20

figure in that in 2025. Just

6:22

yesterday he was at a meeting

6:24

with Victor Orban in Marilago alongside

6:26

Donald Trump. Victor Orbine obviously the

6:28

Hungarian Prime Minister who has instituted

6:30

very repressive authoritarian policies in that

6:32

country and a person who Trump

6:34

has lion eyes and valorized repeatedly

6:36

over the years. We've seen as

6:39

you said his very close relationship

6:41

with George and Maloney in Italy.

6:43

This week he had to deny

6:45

that he was in a relationship

6:47

with George Maloney after Cattered. The

6:49

far-right influencer posted a suggestion that

6:51

he was doing that and Musk

6:53

said no in response on Twitter.

6:55

And one of the most interesting

6:57

things to me is how there

6:59

is now a suggestion that he

7:02

is going to use his money

7:04

to influence the next elections in

7:06

the UK, just as he used

7:08

his money to back Trump this

7:10

time around. There was a report

7:12

I think a couple of weeks

7:14

ago saying there was, you know,

7:16

a hundred million was going to

7:18

be invested, that was denied. But

7:20

just yesterday, a billionaire in the

7:23

UK, Nick Candy, announced that he

7:25

was going to be putting seven

7:27

figures into reform UK, led by

7:29

Nigel Farage, again a very close

7:31

ally of Trump. And Elon Musk

7:33

said this morning or confirmed this

7:35

morning that he has been in

7:37

communication with Nick Candy about donating

7:39

money. So it's pretty clear that

7:41

Musk is looking to build those

7:43

relationships globally, not just in the

7:46

US, and that's a pretty terrifying

7:48

prospect. I'm interested to know what

7:50

the rest of Silicon Valley is

7:52

thinking right now. We've talked about

7:54

and Zuckerberg have both been trying

7:56

to make nice with Trump. Who

7:58

do you see the likely winners

8:00

and losers in Silicon Valley in

8:02

the coming year? Let's start with

8:04

you, McKenna. Sure. What I'm seeing

8:07

a lot of right now is

8:09

just this week the Kids Online

8:11

Safety Act was pushed to the

8:13

next administration. And so I'm assuming,

8:15

you know, with all of the

8:17

excitement around protecting kids, that law

8:19

might find itself being passed next

8:21

year. It's looking a lot more

8:23

likely than it has been for

8:25

the last couple years. And so

8:27

that is a major loss for

8:30

social media companies. I think, you

8:32

know, the people that will see

8:34

the most... success in the Trump

8:36

administration will be people in companies

8:38

that have government contracts, whether that

8:40

is with data centers, AWS, things

8:42

like that. But when it comes

8:44

to people running social media companies,

8:46

except for Elon, right, people who

8:48

run these platforms, I do see

8:51

folks at the Justice Department, at

8:53

the FTC, Andrew Ferguson was just

8:55

nominated to be the chair of

8:57

the FTC this week under Trump.

8:59

I still see, you know, a

9:01

lot of people wanting to. You

9:03

know, incur some kind of wrath

9:05

on these tech companies for censoring

9:07

them, allegedly. What about you, David?

9:09

Who are you looking at as

9:11

winners and losers? What's happening right

9:14

now is people are just scrambling

9:16

and fighting for position and for

9:18

influence. Just the fact that Zuckeberg

9:20

is calling Trump, he wants to

9:22

kind of remain part of the

9:24

conversation. He doesn't want Musk to

9:26

be the only social media owner

9:28

who has the presidency here. So

9:30

I think the winners will depend

9:32

on... Ultimately, who's willing to bend

9:34

the knee the most? Because that's

9:37

what Trump values as loyalty. And

9:39

so whoever is willing to, you

9:41

know, we saw a post on

9:43

true social yesterday, I think, from

9:45

Trump, where he said that whoever

9:47

is willing to invest a billion

9:49

dollars in the US is going

9:51

to get any tax break there

9:53

looking for, is going to get

9:55

all their environmental licenses approved. before

9:58

they apply for them. So he's

10:00

willing to give all of these

10:02

benefits to whoever is willing to

10:04

give him the most money. And

10:06

so I think that's what it

10:08

comes down to, whoever is willing

10:10

to put their money where their

10:12

mouth is and kind of show

10:14

their patriotism through investing huge amounts

10:16

of money in the US are

10:18

going to be the biggest winners.

10:21

I feel the need to point

10:23

out there. The GDP of the

10:25

US is about $27 trillion, which

10:27

is $27,000 billion, so a billion

10:29

is just not that impressive a

10:31

figure in the grand scheme of

10:33

things here. But he put it

10:35

in all caps, Tim, so that

10:37

makes it look much bigger. Should

10:39

we address the crypto industry too?

10:42

We should, but before we do,

10:44

I wanted to ask you, do

10:46

you see all this feeding at

10:48

the trough as a big change?

10:50

It feels like traditionally Silicon Valley

10:52

hasn't actually run big lobbying operations.

10:54

They have, but not themselves. What

10:56

we've seen, there's been millions and

10:58

millions of dollars put into lobbying

11:00

Congress specifically. But now, I think,

11:02

you know, after doing, after going

11:05

through a first Trump administration, they

11:07

realize that the way to get

11:09

things done in Congress isn't lobbying

11:11

Congress for so many years. No

11:13

big changes. since basically I would

11:15

say the infrastructure act and before

11:17

that maybe the ACA, you know,

11:19

those are the main legislative wins

11:21

that Congress has had. And so,

11:23

you know, to get things done

11:26

under a Trump administration, it's going

11:28

to be being around Trump. That's

11:30

the difference here is that you

11:32

have CEOs now who are doing

11:34

lobbying on their own behalf. Jeff

11:36

Basos, I wouldn't know if he

11:38

had any conversations with Obama, right?

11:40

And now this is all playing

11:42

out in public. And it's a

11:44

fascinating thing because that's so personality

11:46

driven. Trump is so unusually driven

11:49

by just vibes and these are

11:51

not the most dynamic personalities in

11:53

the world. He loves people who

11:55

are successful. Lobbyists are just, you

11:57

know, little, sorry if you're a

11:59

lobbyist, but people see them as

12:01

like cockroaches. around Congress, right? Those

12:03

are not the types of people

12:05

that Trump sees as successful and

12:07

people that he should be listening

12:09

to. So let's talk about crypto

12:12

now. I think we can all

12:14

agree that the crypto industry is

12:16

going to do very well under

12:18

this administration. The idea of unregulated

12:20

securities seems really big with some

12:22

of these big personalities who are

12:24

driving things. Let's talk a little

12:26

bit about that and what is

12:28

on the table. One of the

12:30

things that particularly intrigues slash alarms

12:33

me is the notion of some

12:35

sort of federal backing for Bitcoin

12:37

that's been floated, which at least

12:39

seems to me as an amateur

12:41

economist, the absolute worst of all

12:43

worlds in that you have an

12:45

unregulated security which the government is

12:47

nonetheless backstopping the same way it

12:49

would FDIC ensure deposits or something

12:51

like that? The crypto industry is

12:53

one of the biggest winners this

12:56

election year. Trump made an entire

12:58

new group of people, a crypto

13:00

advisory board, a cryptosar, which is

13:02

David Sachs, very influential VC and

13:04

friend Elon Musk, and podcastos. And

13:06

podcastos, true, with all of his

13:08

besties, is what he calls them.

13:10

So there's a whole new group

13:12

here. And then when you look

13:14

at the appointees that Trump has

13:17

made to the important agencies, like

13:19

the Commerce Department and Howard Lutnik

13:21

or the SEC and Paul Atkins

13:23

recently, the people in these positions

13:25

of power to do these things

13:27

are very excited about crypto and

13:29

wanting to create whatever this light

13:31

touch framework is that the crypto

13:33

industry wants. The crypto industry is

13:35

always saying that they want to

13:37

be regulated in a specific way.

13:40

So now it seems much more

13:42

likely that we'll actually see something

13:44

get done. So one definite potential

13:46

loser in Silicon Valley is TikTok,

13:48

which filed an emergency motion in

13:50

court this week to try to

13:52

stop the US from banning it.

13:54

For people who don't remember this,

13:56

under the current quarter, TikTok has

13:58

to be sold to an American

14:01

owner or it will be banned

14:03

in the US starting on January

14:05

19th. McKenna, what do you think

14:07

is going to happen? with the

14:09

court, but looking further out, what

14:11

do you think TikTok looks like

14:13

under Trump? I imagine that this

14:15

is going to be really, really

14:17

hard for them to get out

14:19

of now. Trump has said that

14:21

he wants to save TikTok, that

14:24

he, you know, all of the

14:26

stuff that he did in his

14:28

first administration, he doesn't really believe

14:30

it anymore, and he wants the

14:32

app to stick around. and like

14:34

how well his tic-tocs did. So

14:36

he loves the thing, right? But

14:38

if this goes to Skotis, it's

14:40

gonna take several months, I imagine,

14:42

and I don't know if someone

14:45

like bite dance, right, wants to

14:47

wait that much time, and all

14:49

of that uncertainty, they've already dealt

14:51

with so much uncertainty, whether the

14:53

app could stay in the United

14:55

States. And so I think we're

14:57

getting closer to the app. that

14:59

might be the more appetizing position

15:01

for bite dance and tick-tock come

15:03

next year. David, do you agree

15:05

with that? Yeah, it's going to

15:08

be interesting to see what happens

15:10

because of, you know, will Elon

15:12

Musk have an influence over this?

15:14

Will Mark Zuckerberg be able to

15:16

influence him on this? Do they

15:18

even care? Sorry, my like chaos

15:20

prediction would be that Elon Musk

15:22

buys tick-tock and then revives Vine.

15:24

That would be like the funniest

15:26

thing that could happen and maybe

15:28

probably the worst thing. We already

15:31

saw Elon Musk of course like

15:33

joking and like doing a poll

15:35

on X saying that should I

15:37

bring Vine back because it was

15:39

such a beloved app. I would

15:41

be highly in favor of bringing

15:43

someone ringing Vine back. I don't

15:45

know that Elon has proved to

15:47

be a great product manager over

15:49

the last couple of years. No.

15:52

Obviously, influencers and creators on TikTok

15:54

and other platforms played a huge

15:56

role in this election and really

15:58

seemed to overshadow legacy media in

16:00

a lot of ways. Musk, in

16:02

a lot of ways, is the

16:04

biggest example. that philanthropist, billionaire, Iron

16:06

Man, above all, he's probably an

16:08

influencer at this point. Who are

16:10

each of you looking at as

16:12

a breakout person over maybe the

16:15

next year or so? And also,

16:17

is there anyone whose influence you

16:19

think might be on the wane?

16:21

Let's start with you, David. We've

16:23

had a lot of discussion over

16:25

the last month or however long

16:27

since the election happened where we've

16:29

had this idea where the left

16:31

needs a version of Joe Rogan

16:33

even though Joe Rogan isn't necessarily

16:36

right winging in all his views

16:38

but this idea that a new

16:40

left wing superstar or broadcaster or

16:42

influencer needs to come along and

16:44

do what they believe Joe Rogan

16:46

did in the election. But I

16:48

think that's just fundamentally... flawed thinking.

16:50

I think what happened more so

16:52

was that there was just so

16:54

many of these influencers and podcasters

16:56

that the Trump campaign engaged with

16:59

on a one-to-one basis. I was

17:01

watching, for a story, I was

17:03

reporting the other day, I was

17:05

watching a five days before the

17:07

election, Cash Patel, who's now nominated

17:09

as the FBI director. He was

17:11

on a podcast on a platform

17:13

called Pills. most people will never

17:15

have heard of and never will

17:17

hear of again. But he went

17:20

on that podcast as part of

17:22

the Trump campaign to, he was

17:24

talking about going out to vote,

17:26

getting people out to vote. And

17:28

this is on a, you know,

17:30

a Q and on a adjacent

17:32

show and it's It's just that

17:34

level of engagement with broadcasters and

17:36

influencers who aren't that prominent. I

17:38

think that has had much more

17:40

of an impact on the outcome

17:43

and that is something that I

17:45

don't think people from the Democratic

17:47

side really got or guess yes

17:49

and I think that's what will

17:51

need to happen. Last week Wired

17:53

had its big interview event in

17:55

San Francisco Mark Cuban spoke a

17:57

bit about that. He didn't use

17:59

this phrasing, so I'm loosely paraphrasing,

18:01

but basically the idea being instead

18:03

of looking for this person who's

18:06

gonna reach 30 million people, you

18:08

have to go out there and

18:10

talk to tons and tons and

18:12

tons of people who might be

18:14

reaching 30,000 people at peace. And

18:16

that this this idea of. finding

18:18

a new megaphone is probably a

18:20

bit dated. I tend to agree

18:22

with that myself. McKenna, I'm curious

18:24

what you think about both that

18:27

dynamic and if there are any

18:29

individual people you're looking at on

18:31

the up and the down. Yeah,

18:33

I think what you guys are

18:35

talking about when Mark Cuban talked

18:37

about is really important. The Democrats,

18:39

however, did spend a majority of

18:41

their money on micro influencers, I

18:43

think, when you look at some

18:45

of the data. It's people with

18:47

under 100,000 followers. I think it

18:50

has more to do, not with

18:52

the individual influencers themselves, but the

18:54

communities around them. Democrats, and even

18:56

Republicans in many ways, they see

18:58

influencers as just a billboard of

19:00

advertising, when really what is important

19:02

about them is that you want

19:04

to engage with this not as

19:06

advertising but as organizing. And once

19:08

you think about this as organizing,

19:11

this is where we get into,

19:13

you know, why people love Hasan

19:15

Piker. Well, they like what he

19:17

does, they like what he says,

19:19

and engaging with him is fun.

19:21

I was listening to an interview,

19:23

Hasan did, on Tuesday night with

19:25

FTC chair Lena Khan. Not like

19:27

they're talking about like a Kroger's

19:29

decision, an antitrust decision, all of

19:31

this stuff that typically would be

19:34

fairly boring, but there was 40,000

19:36

concurrent viewers at the time. The

19:38

chat was popping off and calling

19:40

con-based and all of this stuff.

19:42

They were excited to participate not

19:44

just with Hassan, but with the

19:46

people in the community. And so

19:48

I think the important thing coming

19:50

out of this election is not

19:52

just finding, you know, the most

19:55

wickedly talented or attractive or best

19:57

communicator. but finding those engaged communities

19:59

that can then, you know, influence

20:01

each other as well. When we,

20:03

I think when I think about

20:05

the biggest people who are winning...

20:07

am definitely surprised that Hassan, Piker,

20:09

has the influence that he has

20:11

now. He has been largely rejected

20:13

by the Democratic Party as being,

20:15

you know, summoned to a bit

20:18

more progressive. He's pro-Palestinian. He is

20:20

louder on issues that the, you

20:22

know, mainstream Democratic Party doesn't really

20:24

want to talk about. all the

20:26

time. And so he was invited

20:28

to the DNC. He had a

20:30

whole booth set up to stream

20:32

and do his thing for an

20:34

entire day until he got kicked

20:36

out. But that's another story. And

20:39

then yesterday he had Tanahassee coats

20:41

on his stream immediately after he

20:43

had Lena Khan and then he

20:45

had a comedian afterwards. Like that

20:47

is killer programming. That's the kind

20:49

of thing that I think Democrats

20:51

would be better off considering than

20:53

like all of this, you know,

20:55

spending and advertising that they have

20:57

been doing. And on the right,

20:59

you know, I don't necessarily think

21:02

that the Milk Boys are this

21:04

far-right podcasting organization, but they have

21:06

gotten really involved in politics this

21:08

go-around. They have created a voter

21:10

outreach organization. They did multiple podcasts

21:12

with Trump and the folks on

21:14

their team. And that is the

21:16

kind of audience that I think

21:18

the Trump administration and the Republican

21:20

Party is going after. They're going

21:22

after a more fratty atmosphere. They're

21:25

going after something that is a

21:27

bit more barstool sports, and I

21:29

think the milk boy has really

21:31

fit in well there. We're a

21:33

politics podcast. We're also a tech

21:35

podcast. And this is a very

21:37

broad question, but I'm curious. What

21:39

are the potential developments in tech

21:41

that you have your eye on

21:43

next year? AI, quantum computing, biotech,

21:46

anything you're just interested in, especially

21:48

as it pertains to politics. Let's

21:50

start with you, David. One of

21:52

the most interesting conversations I had

21:54

this year was with someone who

21:56

was tracking dark web job boards

21:58

and how Russian disinformation campaigns are

22:00

advertising for AI experts. can build

22:02

either large language models or they

22:04

can develop tools that have no

22:06

barriers because all the open source

22:09

ones that are available at the

22:11

moment have certain barriers on them

22:13

that prevent these guys from doing

22:15

things that they might want to

22:17

do. So I think it would

22:19

be really interesting to see if

22:21

next year we actually get to

22:23

the point where these disinformation campaigns

22:25

have their own technologies they can

22:27

use and roll out at scale

22:30

that will actually make a difference.

22:32

And how about you, McKenna? Something

22:34

I've been reading a lot about

22:36

that I'm like obsessed with reading

22:38

about is human brain organoids. And

22:40

how this very quickly has this

22:42

technology been ramping up to the

22:44

fact that like you can use

22:46

a biological brain created in a

22:48

lab to run software. And I

22:50

imagine that maybe, you know, we

22:53

might see some folks putting a

22:55

lot more research and funding into

22:57

that. I think it's fascinating. And

22:59

I do think that there, I'm

23:01

curious about the, you know, when

23:03

we talk about computing power and

23:05

needing, you know, so much energy

23:07

for crypto or AI, I want

23:09

to see of this, you know,

23:11

this kind of new biological processing

23:14

tech that's involved in it and

23:16

all. That's a great answer. I

23:18

am going to rudely answer my

23:20

own question and say that I

23:22

think signal will be the defining

23:24

tech of 2025. Everyone should download

23:26

it and use it. It's an

23:28

end-to-end encrypted communications app. If you

23:30

set disappearing messages and the head

23:32

of the FBI wants to see

23:34

your comms, he won't be able

23:37

to get them because they won't

23:39

exist. Obvious upside is privacy for

23:41

journalists, researchers, congressionally, anyone who might

23:43

come under the eye of Soron

23:45

from the administration, the downside is

23:47

that there's probably going to be

23:49

a lot of communications that journalists

23:51

have relied on being able to

23:53

get out of the government, whether

23:55

via the Freedom of Information Act

23:57

or even discovery in lawsuits, that

24:00

is just not going to exist.

24:02

And in the long term, this

24:04

might even be a pretty significant

24:06

challenge for historians and archivists, though

24:08

probably no one is too concerned

24:10

about them right now, although they

24:12

should be. We'll be right back

24:14

to talk more about what's coming

24:16

up in Trump's second term. Hey

24:25

everyone, if you like what you're

24:27

hearing, make sure to follow Wired

24:29

Politics Lab and rate it on

24:31

your podcast app of choice. Thanks.

24:33

Welcome back to Wired Politics Lab.

24:35

Let's get right into it. Which

24:38

of the Trump cabinet picks, assuming

24:40

they're all confirmed, are you going

24:42

to be watching most closely and

24:44

why? Let's start with you, McKenna.

24:46

I am going to pay the

24:48

most attention to who was expected

24:50

to be the new FCC chair

24:52

Brendan Carr. He posts all the

24:55

time on X, how much he

24:57

wants to expand Starlink and Elon

24:59

Musk's technology. And he also talks

25:01

about he's gone after TikTok. He's

25:03

also of the mind that the

25:05

FCC can regulate online speech. which

25:07

is something that it has never

25:10

done before and is not necessarily

25:12

in its charter. So I am

25:14

curious to see how far this

25:16

goes, or if it is this

25:18

realignment Republican conservative mask that he

25:20

may have been wearing for the

25:22

last couple of years. How about

25:24

you, David? There's just so many

25:27

to pick from. Like what is

25:29

Kimberly Gilfoil going to do as

25:31

ambassador to Greece? That worries me

25:33

a little bit of this. I

25:35

think for me I'm going to

25:37

be very closely looking at what

25:39

Cash Patel does as the head

25:41

of the FBI. No more so

25:44

for the reason that his appointment

25:46

has reinvigorated the Q&NAN community to

25:48

an extent I haven't seen it

25:50

in quite a long while because

25:52

he's obviously quite linked to our

25:54

community. He's given it support in

25:56

two Q drops. they believe that

25:58

his appointment as head of the

26:01

FBI would usher in mass arrests,

26:03

public executions, and this glorious new

26:05

age for America. I am going

26:07

to be keeping it on RFK,

26:09

Jr. because he has said he's

26:11

going to stop the FDA's war

26:13

on sunshine, and I want to

26:16

know how he carries that up.

26:18

One of the big questions is

26:20

whether the Trump Justice Department, under

26:22

figures like Pam Bondi and Cash

26:24

Patel, will pursue investigations of his

26:26

political rivals, his enemies, and various

26:28

people he has claimed he will

26:30

bring the weight of the law

26:33

against. What do you think, David?

26:35

I think if they can, they

26:37

will, like one of the things

26:39

that they come back to constantly

26:41

is this idea that they are

26:43

going to, you know, eradicate the

26:45

deep state, which is this kind

26:47

of amorphous term for someone within

26:50

the Justice Department or the federal

26:52

government that has been working against

26:54

Trump, which is, you know, that's

26:56

core Q&NAN conspiracy belief, which has

26:58

now become Republican Orthodoxy that there

27:00

is this deep state working against

27:02

Trump and he is fighting back

27:05

against them. And Pam Bondi and

27:07

Cash Patel are two of the

27:09

most loyal figures within Trump world

27:11

and they are from what they

27:13

have said publicly willing to do

27:15

exactly what he wants. Now he

27:17

said in I think meet the

27:19

press interview during the week that

27:22

he wouldn't be directing them but

27:24

at the same time I think

27:26

a minute later said that he

27:28

wanted the people who were involved

27:30

in the January 6th meeting to

27:32

be prosecuted. So he's clearly got

27:34

a list of people he wants

27:36

to investigate and Pam Bondi and

27:39

Cash Patel seem to be willing

27:41

to do whatever he asked them.

27:43

Now whether they're allowed to do

27:45

it from a legal perspective, I

27:47

think that's up in the air

27:49

at the moment. Yeah, McKenna, what

27:51

do you see as barriers either

27:53

legal or political with investigations here?

27:56

I don't know. That is a

27:58

hard one because. are norms? What

28:00

are systems anymore? I think that's

28:02

a great answer, honestly. I think

28:04

we should just move on. So

28:06

one thing we've covered extensively this

28:08

year is the Stop the Steel

28:11

movement, which has been regrouping in

28:13

the wake of Trump's victory. David,

28:15

I imagine you have some predictions

28:17

on where the movement goes from

28:19

here. First, who do you think

28:21

Trump is going to pick to

28:23

be his elections are, the head

28:25

of the cybersecurity and infrastructure security

28:28

agency? Is he going to go

28:30

with the my pillow guy? I,

28:32

yeah, Michael and I spoke to

28:34

him last month. He very clearly

28:36

was willing to step up into

28:38

whatever or any role that Donald

28:40

Trump is willing to give him

28:42

around elections to secure elections because.

28:45

The Stop to Steel movement is

28:47

going nowhere. They've spent four years

28:49

building this massive network, hugely well

28:51

funded and influential, and with a

28:53

network of tens of thousands, hundreds

28:55

of thousands of volunteers all across

28:57

the country. They're already talking about

29:00

the midterm elections in 2026 and

29:02

the fact that the war isn't

29:04

over, that everything they've done until

29:06

now has only proven that the

29:08

system was corrupt in 2020 and

29:10

that they need to continue to

29:12

make improvements to it. So the

29:14

stop to steal movement is going

29:17

nowhere. Whether Trump appoint someone specifically

29:19

to oversee elections, I don't know.

29:21

You know, it's the fact that

29:23

he's won now I think is

29:25

one now I think is all

29:27

that he wanted, he doesn't really

29:29

care about the nuances of electoral

29:31

law across the country and whether

29:34

that gets better or not because

29:36

at the moment at least come

29:38

2028 he won't be running for

29:40

election again. McKenna, Trump has obviously

29:42

been made a sort of temporary

29:44

monarch by the Supreme Court which

29:46

has said that pretty much anything

29:48

he does as president or at

29:51

least anything he can semi-plausible. was

29:53

official business, he can't be held

29:55

accountable for it. He's immune from

29:57

prosecution. Is there anything you can

29:59

think of that he would do

30:01

that would cause a significant backlash

30:03

even among his supporters and want

30:06

to differentiate between two classes of

30:08

supporters, one being the public, especially

30:10

the hardcore MAGA base and the

30:12

other congressional Republicans who, unlike him,

30:14

have elections to look at? At

30:16

this point, I do think Trump

30:18

can get away with anything. When

30:20

he was running for president the

30:23

first time, he said that he

30:25

could shoot someone in the middle

30:27

of Fifth Avenue and get away

30:29

with it. And with all of

30:31

the lawsuits and court appearances and

30:33

everything, indictments that he's undergone over

30:35

the last couple years, he's gotten

30:37

away scot-free. So I have a

30:40

hard time believing anything can catch

30:42

him at this point. I agree

30:44

with McKenna, I think he could

30:46

shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and

30:48

get away with it. I think

30:50

he can do pretty much anything

30:52

he wants because he'll be able

30:55

to blame anyone, everyone for failing

30:57

to complete the promises. Like for

30:59

example, the mass deportations that he's

31:01

promising, you know, there's this record,

31:03

this belief out there that on

31:05

day one there's going to be

31:07

these massive sweeps of... immigrant communities

31:09

and they're going to get rid

31:12

of a million people in the

31:14

first year according to JD Vance.

31:16

But when that doesn't happen and

31:18

it won't happen, then people will

31:20

just either forget about it and

31:22

move on or Trump will claim

31:24

that he's doing something in the

31:26

background and it's happening and people

31:29

don't see it. These Trump supporters

31:31

have been so convinced and so

31:33

brainwashed over the years to believe

31:35

anything he tells me. I actually

31:37

just thought of one thing. Part

31:39

of the Heritage Foundation's plan for

31:41

a Trump administration was to ban

31:43

porn. And with all the child

31:46

safety bills that are going to

31:48

affect, like if they actually get

31:50

passed next year and we're required

31:52

to do this online verification and

31:54

porn gets banned, I can definitely

31:56

see some people being pretty upset

31:58

and being mad. I agree with

32:01

that. I will also differ with

32:03

the two of you in that

32:05

I think foreign adventurism, the whole

32:07

machinery of the imperial presidency, tends

32:09

toward it, no matter what Trump's

32:11

anti-war rhetoric is. It's also matched

32:13

by him loosely talking about things

32:15

like invading Mexico. And with all

32:18

the chaos in the world, especially

32:20

in the Middle East, I think

32:22

there's... a reasonably high percentage of

32:24

something going catastrophicly wrong involving the

32:26

U.S. military that gets hung around

32:28

his neck. And I think that

32:30

would have the potential to really

32:32

scramble what seemed to be very

32:35

set politics right now. But do

32:37

you think Tim would make any

32:39

difference because Trump's not going to

32:41

care if people turn on him,

32:43

especially his voters, because he doesn't

32:45

need them anymore? I don't think

32:47

he does, but he does need

32:50

Congress, which is pretty deferential right

32:52

now, but that can turn, and

32:54

we have seen that turn very

32:56

quickly. So I'll just say there's

32:58

some potential there. Christian nationalists helped

33:00

Trump win the White House this

33:02

year, just like they did in

33:04

2016. What do you think they're

33:07

going to demand from Trump as

33:09

payment? And will they get it?

33:11

How about you, McKenna. We may

33:13

have just answered that question. I

33:16

think there's two things, right? Maybe

33:18

actually putting forth a federal abortion

33:21

ban. That is definitely something that

33:23

I imagine Christian nationals wanting. They're

33:25

already pushing for those kinds of

33:27

things. And then, of course, like

33:29

I mentioned, a porn ban. And

33:32

so I imagine, you know, those

33:34

are maybe the two big things.

33:36

David? I think quite a sizable

33:38

proportion of them will want more.

33:40

I think especially education is where

33:43

they'll want major shift towards the

33:45

right in terms of putting Christianity

33:47

back at the center of the

33:49

education system. We're already seeing it

33:51

in Florida where Liberty University has

33:54

a Christian university, has signed contracts

33:56

with certain public school boards in

33:58

the state and that allows their

34:00

students to go into schools in

34:02

Florida and teach classes and take

34:05

part in the education there. So

34:07

there's already beginning to be a

34:09

bit of creep there in terms

34:11

of Christian ideology making its way

34:13

into public schools and I think

34:16

that's where a lot of the

34:18

Christian nationalists I listen to at

34:20

least want to see the biggest

34:22

change. Finally, this is a very

34:24

important one for me personally. Will

34:27

Trump's administration finally declassify information about

34:29

UFOs and the JFK assassination? We're

34:31

talking Roswell, hidden files, videotapes, all

34:33

sorts of things that are rumored

34:35

to exist. And if so, what's

34:38

in there? David? What's in there?

34:40

Oh wow, that's a big question.

34:42

Like, they promised to do it.

34:44

I guess there's a chance that

34:46

they will. If they do, I

34:49

don't think there's going to be

34:51

proof of aliens. Sorry, Tim. What

34:53

about you, McKenna? I feel like

34:55

I have this folk story in

34:58

my head, and maybe it's real.

35:00

I need to check, but Jimmy

35:02

Carter, upon entering office, he saw

35:04

some UFO files and wept, and

35:06

he never said anything about it

35:09

again. I believe I've heard this

35:11

too. Yeah, and I don't know

35:13

if it's real. I just tried

35:15

to do some searching. And thinking

35:17

about Trump finding these things out,

35:20

I don't know if he wouldn't

35:22

release them. I wouldn't be optimistic.

35:24

I don't believe they're going to

35:26

release anything because he was already

35:28

president and did not release the

35:31

material in question. I believe that

35:33

what the secret files would show

35:35

if declassified is that the U.S.

35:37

engaged in a cover-up of Lee

35:39

Harvey Oswald and his relationship to

35:42

the Soviet Union in fears that

35:44

if it were made public, it

35:46

would lead to a nuclear war

35:48

and that much of the subsequent

35:50

cover-up has been a cover-up of

35:53

the cover-up. And I believe that

35:55

the UFO files would show that

35:57

extraterrestrial biological entities crashed in New

35:59

Mexico. in the 1940s

36:01

and led the U.S. government

36:04

on a voyage of discovery

36:06

about the nature of the

36:08

universe that includes aliens having

36:10

created well-known religious figures throughout

36:12

human history as guides to

36:14

give humans instructions on how

36:16

not to damage their bodies

36:18

which are containers for souls

36:20

that aliens are harvesting for

36:23

energy. This has been... The

36:25

theory at least that many

36:27

UFO proponents have been putting

36:29

out there since the 1980s,

36:31

and I of course firmly

36:33

believe it's true, maybe Donald

36:35

Trump will confirm that. McKenna

36:37

and David, thank you so

36:39

much for being here. When

36:42

we come back, it's time

36:44

for our last ever conspiracy

36:46

of the week. We

36:51

just lived through a truly wild

36:53

presidential race, hitting a Democrat who

36:55

wasn't on the ballot until June,

36:57

and a Republican who was convicted

36:59

on 34 felony counts just before

37:01

receiving his party's nomination for president.

37:03

But the wildest thing might have

37:05

been this guy. If you already

37:07

believe in the Constitution, You're just

37:10

signing something you already believe, and

37:12

you can win a million dollars.

37:14

That's awesome. I'm Max Chaffkin, and

37:16

this is Citizen Elon, a three-part

37:18

series from Elon Inc., where we

37:20

investigate Elon Musk's unprecedented support for

37:22

Donald Trump. Follow Elon Inc. on

37:24

Apple Podcast, or wherever you like

37:26

to listen. Welcome back to Wired

37:28

Politics Lab. This is Conspiracy of

37:30

the Week, that part of the

37:33

show, where our guests bring their

37:35

favorite conspiracy theories, and I will

37:37

be judging in Leah's place. The

37:39

winter this week gets to brag

37:41

about it forever. So I hope

37:43

both you brought something good. McKenna,

37:45

let's start with you. Yeah, I'm

37:47

glad that you brought up aliens

37:49

in the JFK assassination because I'm

37:51

going to complete the trifecta with

37:53

this. One of the conspiracy theories

37:56

that I think has gotten, it's

37:58

time in the sky, shall we

38:00

say, this year has been chem

38:02

trails. are the trails that planes

38:04

leave as they fly in the

38:06

sky. Apparently spreading all of these

38:08

chemicals and ruining and poisoning us

38:10

when really it is just water

38:12

vapor. Just earlier this year with

38:14

the hurricane in North Carolina there

38:16

were conspiracies about chem trails taking

38:19

place there. Lawmakers in Tennessee passed

38:21

a bill having to do with

38:23

something and regulating chem trails crazy

38:25

stuff. But this week, oh my

38:27

gosh, I lost it when I

38:29

saw this. There was what appeared

38:31

to be a satirical joke online

38:33

about a left concept, pilot, denying

38:35

to spray kem trails on his

38:37

side while piloting a plate. He

38:39

took a grandstand apparently and said,

38:41

I will not do it. And

38:44

the chemtrail, I guess we can

38:46

call it the chemtrail community, was

38:48

really thrilled with it. And it's

38:50

not true. It was a joke.

38:53

Yeah. All right. What do you

38:55

got, David? I just want to

38:58

say that chemtrels in Ireland, conspiracy

39:00

groups right now are huge. We

39:02

seem to suddenly have the conspiracy

39:04

groups here in Ireland seem to

39:07

discover chemtrel, so I must share

39:09

that with them because they love

39:11

it. So yeah, my conspiracy this

39:14

week, cast a-dew with Luigi Mangion,

39:16

who is the alleged shooter in

39:18

the United Healthcare CEO assassination. Almost

39:20

immediately there were a ton of

39:23

conspiracy theories about the fact that

39:25

he wasn't the actual shooter. He

39:27

was either a Patsy that you

39:30

know Nancy Pelosi had placed there

39:32

because of her links to his

39:34

family or many other conspiracies. My

39:36

favorite one was the conspiracies who

39:39

started analyzing his eyebrows because in

39:41

the pictures that first came out

39:43

before he was identified, you know,

39:45

you could only see his eyes.

39:48

So his eyebrows were kind of

39:50

this big thing where people were

39:52

looking at his eyebrows and because

39:55

they're quite, you know, impressive. But

39:57

now when his identity had been

39:59

are zooming in on his eyebrows

40:01

and claiming that it's not the

40:04

same person. They have done a

40:06

hair-by-hair analysis in some cases where

40:08

people are looking at the eyebrows

40:10

and saying that this cannot be

40:13

the same person. a vowed eyebrow

40:15

expert on telegram who are claiming

40:17

that this is absolutely 100% not

40:20

the same person. And as our

40:22

colleague Teso and told me this

40:24

morning, there is a conspiracy around

40:26

that there is an eyebrow assassination

40:29

group or a group of assassins

40:31

with magnificent eyebrows that he is

40:33

a part of. So I'm looking

40:36

forward to seeing where this eyebrow

40:38

conspiracy goes in the future. Okay,

40:40

I'm sorry McKenna, but I think

40:42

we have a clear winner here,

40:45

eyebrow, forensics, assassins who can be

40:47

identified by their magnificent eyebrows. It's

40:49

the new phrenology. That is a

40:51

great final conspiracy of the week,

40:54

and I think with that, thank

40:56

you again for joining me today,

40:58

and thank you for having joined

41:01

Politics Lab all throughout the year.

41:03

Do you have any final words

41:05

for our listeners? I will plug

41:07

one last thing, and that will

41:10

be the newsletter. I would also

41:12

urge everyone to subscribe to McKenna's

41:14

newsletter because it's really great and

41:16

I would like people to continue

41:19

spreading the craziest conspiracy theories online

41:21

because it keeps me entertained every

41:23

week. This

41:28

is our last episode of Wired Politics

41:30

Lab. Leah, our usual host, was unfortunately

41:32

unable to be here today, but she

41:34

did pass along a note to share

41:36

with you, which I will now read.

41:38

She says, my favorite part of hosting

41:40

this podcast was being able to bring

41:42

wired stories from across the newsroom, and

41:44

particularly the politics desk, to this entirely

41:46

new format. While this podcast

41:48

is ending, these stories aren't going anywhere. These reporters

41:50

aren't going anywhere. And with Trump 2.0 looming on

41:53

the horizon, we're more committed than ever to addressing

41:55

extremism, disinformation, fascism, the rise

41:57

of Elon Musk, the the rise

41:59

of Trumpism, the the rise

42:02

of bros, and and even

42:04

the rise of Peanut the squirrel,

42:06

and dissecting that for

42:08

all our audiences. A

42:10

shout out to you, our listeners, who decided to

42:13

take a chance on this podcast. this This was such

42:15

a privilege. a I'm able to offer a few pieces

42:17

of advice for the coming year. for the Keep an eye

42:19

on the news, but not too much. but Keep an

42:21

eye on your friends eye a bit. Keep

42:23

your family and loved ones close,

42:25

and find things that bring you joy.

42:27

things that feel free to write to

42:29

me to write to me at Leah underscore Figer.com. I so I

42:31

so look forward to hearing from

42:33

you, and thanks for listening. And

42:36

that does it for Wired Politics

42:38

Lab. You can still find You can

42:41

coverage online, and by signing up

42:43

for the Wired Politics and by which

42:45

McKenna writes each week. Wired If

42:47

you have a moment, please subscribe

42:49

to our other podcast, each week. If Valley,

42:51

which is excellent. Special thanks to

42:53

our producer Jake Harper and the

42:55

rest of our production team that

42:57

made the show possible. Special thanks to our

42:59

our studio engineer. Harper the rest episode.

43:01

Steven Valentino is our the producer. Prand

43:03

is is of audio at at Conde Nast.

43:05

I'm Tim Marchman. Thanks for listening to

43:07

the show. the show. Hey,

43:22

Hey there, if If you're enjoying Wired

43:24

Politics Lab, Lab, another podcast I want

43:26

to recommend to you recommend Go

43:28

Right? What Could Go show is hosted by

43:30

hosted by progress network founder Zachary director, and executive director Emma

43:32

In each episode, they sit down

43:34

with expert guests to discuss the

43:36

world's most pressing issues without resorting

43:38

to the pessimism or despair the

43:40

we hear so often. that Instead, so often.

43:42

Go Right? back go right how far

43:44

at how far society has come forward at what

43:46

it will take to achieve an

43:48

even brighter future. future. If you're

43:50

looking for a weekly dose of

43:53

optimistic ideas from smart people, listen

43:55

to What Could Go Right? go right

43:57

Wednesday, wherever you get your podcasts. podcasts.

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